A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
After going 4-0 during Wild Card Weekend, I feel back a bit this past weekend. I went 2-2, nailing the San Francisco and New York games while missing rather badly on the Patriots and Ravens victories (I thought Denver would keep it close and Baltimore would dominate…whoops!).
After an up and down regular season in which I needed a furious finish to end up over .500, I couldn’t have started the playoffs out with any more momentum. I nailed all four games last week, and I’m even going to give myself extra credit for making the Giants -3 my lock, since they delivered the most dominant win of the weekend.
Now it’s time to move onto the divisional round.
Well friends, I did not achieve my goal of a season-long winning percentage of over 50%. I finished the year at 115-113-8, a win percentage of 48.7%. My won/loss percentage though was over the .500 line, so at least I kept my head above water from that respect.
There were a few errors in the TV schedule info originally published with this post. The NFL pulled a few last-minute switcheroos with game times. It’s been updated. Also, the Steelers-Browns pick is in.
After two straight 11-5 weeks, which pulled my record over .500, I fell back to Earth a little bit last week, going just 8-8 and missing on my lock pick of Atlanta covering the 6.5 against New Orleans.
Still, ever since my one week hiatus in Week 13, I am 30-18, so I’m still feeling good and riding a nice wave of momentum.
Update: The late-arriving spreads are in…and now so are my picks for those games.
Three weeks ago, I was not feeling good. I was 78-87-7 on the season and so dejected that I let someone else do my picks for the week – a task I have faithfully completed here at MSF every week for the last three years.
But apparently the one week hiatus was exactly what I needed to get back on the right track.
Update: The late-arriving spreads have arrived! All picks are in.
So maybe I’m the Tim Tebow of picking games?
Obviously this is a ridiculous analogy, because the pious Tebow surely would never indulge in such hedonistic pursuits as gambling or, in my case, analyzing spreads and picking games for sport with no monetary investment.
But the evidence of my Tebowness as a handicapper is building.
Update: All spreads and picks are in!
Yes, I took a one week hiatus in Week 13. There were a couple of reasons for this.
First, I was crazy busy. It got late in the week, I realized I hadn’t done the picks column yet, and I panicked. I know that many of you read this column religiously every week, and I appreciate it more than I can express. If I couldn’t get to it, I wanted to make sure someone did; and I see Kurt’s weekly NFL picks pop up in my Facebook feed every week, so I figured why not him?
Update: All but one of the spreads are in now. Post updated with the late-addition spreads and my picks.
Damnit.
Another subpar week (4-7-2) has me at 72-78-7 for the season, a winning percentage of 45.9%. That just sucks. We all figured this season would be a bit unpredictable because of the lockout, and certainly it has been (the 49ers are 9-1!!!), but I never thought I’d struggle this much.
It’s time for a strong finish down the stretch, beginning with this week’s Thanksgiving Day games.
Well okay. After two straight weeks of being at least three games below .500, I can’t be too disappointed in an 8-7 week that featured such awful predictions as Carolina (-3) over Tennessee, the Lions (+2.5) over the Bears, and the Jets (-1) over the Patriots. Each of those games was a blowout in the direction opposite of what I picked.
So 8-7? I’ll take it. It brings me to 68-71-5 on the year, so I’ll hold out totally irrational hope that I can get back to .500 this week.
I wish I had better news to report to you about my Week 8 performance, but it appears that my return from the depths was short-lived.
Well that sucked.
After going 21-11 during Weeks 3 and 4 to surge well over .500, I’ve hit the skids with my worst ever two week stretch during the 3+ years that I’ve been picking NFL games against the spread. I am 8-16-2 since the byes started in Week 5, with an especially horrific 3-9-1 last week. That’s just terrible. So I’m now 44-42-4 on the season, a 48.9% winning clip (since I conservatively count pushes as losses).
Let’s turn the page and move onto better times here in Week 7, and I’ll tell you why I’m wholly confident moving forward despite these last two terrible weeks.
As many people were, I was caught off guard by a few results in Week 1.
I definitely did not expect the Bengals to play as well as they did (relatively speaking of course, because it was still the Browns…); I figured Pittsburgh would put up much more of a fight against Baltimore; and the Rams barely even had enough offensive players to finish the game, let alone compete with the explosive Eagles.
Still, I pulled off a plus-.500 week, going 8-7-1 in Week 1. I strive for much better, but like the 49ers and Bills I’m just happy to have my head above water. Hopefully this week I can start to build some momentum and a nice cushion above .500.
[Editor's note: Spreads for the Monday night games have been added and picks posted.]
For the third straight year, our weekly NFL coverage will include a Bettor’s Guide and a Viewer’s Guide to get you ready for that week’s action in the National. Football. LEAGUE.
In the Bettor’s Guide, normally posted on Tuesdays, we run down the point spreads and over-unders for each game, and I give my against-the-spread picks. The Viewer’s Guide, typically posted on Wednesdays, runs down the TV listings and announcer assignments for each game.
And for those of you wondering whether you should pay attention to my picks, I’ve been relatively successful the last two years since I started doing this post every week. In 2009, I was somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 games over .500 for the season. Last year, I went 131-103-8.
Longtime readers of MSF know that I never wager money on sporting events, but I do enjoy the challenge of picking games against Vegas spreads. My methodology is simple: I get the earliest spreads during the week and post my initial gut reaction. That’s it. And as my records show, it’s been a successful strategy.
Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
——————–
After having my first sub-.500 spread picking week in Week 6, I was able to bounce back in Week 7.
Coming into tonight’s Monday Nighter between the Redskins and Eagles (I took the Eagles -7.5, which is looking good so far) I was sitting at 7-4 for the week and 56-41 overall. The overall total could be a game or two off, but pretty solid regardless.
[Update: 8-4 for the week and 57-41 overall thanks to the Eagles' 10-point W.]
Looking ahead to Week 8, we have another week with six teams on bye. However, unlike Week 7, the schedule is filled with solid games: Denver-Baltimore, Giants-Eagles, Dolphins-Jets, Falcons-Saints.
Oh yeah, and Vikings-Packers…the return of Brett Favre to Lambeau Field.
Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.
——————–
I’m starting to get into a nice rhythm getting these NFL TV schedule and odds posts published. Right as the Monday Night Football game ends, it’s time to hit publish, turn the page, and get ready for the next week.
This week is Week 4 of the 2009 NFL season and there are some great games on the schedule this week. Ravens-Patriots, Saints-Jets, Cowboys-Broncos, Chargers-Steelers, and…
Vikings-Packers.
That’s right. Brett Favre makes his first appearance against his former team this week on Monday Night Football. Get ready, because you won’t be hearing about anything else all week. (And if you’re interested in tickets, follow the link for some great Vikings-Packers tickets resources.)
As always, this post is designed to be the most complete viewing guide you’ll find anywhere. Not only is every game listed (with date, time, network, and announcer pairing) but we also give you the point spread and over-under, as well as an educated guess at a spread pick for each game.
Through three weeks I am 28-20 against the spread. I’ll take it!
