Bettors Guide: NFL Week 17 Picks, Point Spreads, Lock of the Week, and Over-Under Odds

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There were a few errors in the TV schedule info originally published with this post. The NFL pulled a few last-minute switcheroos with game times. It’s been updated. Also, the Steelers-Browns pick is in.

After two straight 11-5 weeks, which pulled my record over .500, I fell back to Earth a little bit last week, going just 8-8 and missing on my lock pick of Atlanta covering the 6.5 against New Orleans.

Still, ever since my one week hiatus in Week 13, I am 30-18, so I’m still feeling good and riding a nice wave of momentum.

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Bettors Guide: NFL Week 16 Picks, Point Spreads, Lock of the Week, and Over-Under Odds

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Update: The late-arriving spreads are in…and now so are my picks for those games.

Three weeks ago, I was not feeling good. I was 78-87-7 on the season and so dejected that I let someone else do my picks for the week – a task I have faithfully completed here at MSF every week for the last three years.

But apparently the one week hiatus was exactly what I needed to get back on the right track.

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Bettors Guide: NFL Week 15 Picks, Point Spreads, Lock of the Week, Over-Under Odds and TV Schedule

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Update: The late-arriving spreads have arrived! All picks are in.

So maybe I’m the Tim Tebow of picking games?

Obviously this is a ridiculous analogy, because the pious Tebow surely would never indulge in such hedonistic pursuits as gambling or, in my case, analyzing spreads and picking games for sport with no monetary investment.

But the evidence of my Tebowness as a handicapper is building.

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Bettors Guide: NFL Week 14 Picks, Point Spreads, and Over-Under Odds

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Update: All spreads and picks are in!

Yes, I took a one week hiatus in Week 13. There were a couple of reasons for this.

First, I was crazy busy. It got late in the week, I realized I hadn’t done the picks column yet, and I panicked. I know that many of you read this column religiously every week, and I appreciate it more than I can express. If I couldn’t get to it, I wanted to make sure someone did; and I see Kurt’s weekly NFL picks pop up in my Facebook feed every week, so I figured why not him?

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Thanksgiving Week 12 Picks, Point Spreads, and Over-Under Odds

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Update: All but one of the spreads are in now. Post updated with the late-addition spreads and my picks.

Damnit.

Another subpar week (4-7-2) has me at 72-78-7 for the season, a winning percentage of 45.9%. That just sucks. We all figured this season would be a bit unpredictable because of the lockout, and certainly it has been (the 49ers are 9-1!!!), but I never thought I’d struggle this much.

It’s time for a strong finish down the stretch, beginning with this week’s Thanksgiving Day games.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 11 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Under Odds

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Well okay. After two straight weeks of being at least three games below .500, I can’t be too disappointed in an 8-7 week that featured such awful predictions as Carolina (-3) over Tennessee, the Lions (+2.5) over the Bears, and the Jets (-1) over the Patriots. Each of those games was a blowout in the direction opposite of what I picked.

So 8-7? I’ll take it. It brings me to 68-71-5 on the year, so I’ll hold out totally irrational hope that I can get back to .500 this week.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 9 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders

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I wish I had better news to report to you about my Week 8 performance, but it appears that my return from the depths was short-lived.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 6 Picks, Point Spreads, Analysis, and Predictions for Week of October 16th

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[Update: I forgot the Cowboys-Patriots game! Thanks to the commenter who pointed this out. It has been added.]

After a few good weeks in a row that got me to 10 games over .500, I slipped a bit last week. That is what trusting the Eagles, Giants, and Falcons will get you here in 2011. After my 5-7-1 showing last week, I am now 41-33-3, a win percentage of 53.2%.

I promise to do better this week. And I always keep my promises. (Just please don’t ask any past girlfriends to confirm this. I’m speaking only in the context of Bettor’s Guide promises.)

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 5 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders

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Those first two weeks, when I went a combined 15-15-2, are now a distant memory. After a 12-4 Week 3, and a solid 9-7 Week 4, the overall record is now 10 games over .500 at 36-26-2, a win percentage of 57%. And some of the losses last week were by the narrowest of margins, so I’m feeling good.

What’s on tap for this week? A Monday night game in which Detroit is favored by six points over Chicago. That’s really all you need to know about the NFL in 2011.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 4 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders

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Update: The spread and pick for the Eagles-49ers game is now posted.

Now that’s what I’m talking about!

After going a putrid 15-15-2 against the spread through the first two weeks of the 2011 NFL season, I exploded in Week 3 with a 12-4 domination of the point spreads. I’m now 27-19-2 on the season, good for about a 56% winning clip through three weeks.

I’d happily take that for the season, so if I can just maintain this pace I’ll set myself up for yet another successful season picking games the way I always do: first gut impression based on Tuesday lines.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 3 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders

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Update: The spreads for the Giants-Eagles and Cowboys-Redskins have been posted. Picks below.

If a tie feels like kissing your sister, then how should we accurately describe the feeling of picking 32 games through the first two weeks of the season and being exactly .500 at the end of it? That’s right, through 32 games I am 15-15-2. It almost like 32 smooches with my figurative and non-existent sister, which even just a figment of my imagination sounds utterly unenjoyable and awkward.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 2 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders

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As many people were, I was caught off guard by a few results in Week 1.

I definitely did not expect the Bengals to play as well as they did (relatively speaking of course, because it was still the Browns…); I figured Pittsburgh would put up much more of a fight against Baltimore; and the Rams barely even had enough offensive players to finish the game, let alone compete with the explosive Eagles.

Still, I pulled off a plus-.500 week, going 8-7-1 in Week 1. I strive for much better, but like the 49ers and Bills I’m just happy to have my head above water. Hopefully this week I can start to build some momentum and a nice cushion above .500.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 1 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders

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[Editor's note: Spreads for the Monday night games have been added and picks posted.]

For the third straight year, our weekly NFL coverage will include a Bettor’s Guide and a Viewer’s Guide to get you ready for that week’s action in the National. Football. LEAGUE.

In the Bettor’s Guide, normally posted on Tuesdays, we run down the point spreads and over-unders for each game, and I give my against-the-spread picks. The Viewer’s Guide, typically posted on Wednesdays, runs down the TV listings and announcer assignments for each game.

And for those of you wondering whether you should pay attention to my picks, I’ve been relatively successful the last two years since I started doing this post every week. In 2009, I was somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 games over .500 for the season. Last year, I went 131-103-8.

Longtime readers of MSF know that I never wager money on sporting events, but I do enjoy the challenge of picking games against Vegas spreads. My methodology is simple: I get the earliest spreads during the week and post my initial gut reaction. That’s it. And as my records show, it’s been a successful strategy.

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Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 16 Picks, Point Spreads, and Over-Under Odds

BAM!. After having my worst week of the season in Week 14 (5-10) I rebounded with my best week of 2010 in Week 15, going a whopping 11-4 against the spread. My record on the season is now 115-89-8.

Let’s get right to the NFL Week 16 picks.

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NFL Week 15 Picks, Point Spreads, TV Schedule, and Announcer Lineup

Update: The NFL Week 17 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks post is up.

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Update 12/19: All spreads and picks have been entered below except for the Jets-Falcons game, which still is not on the board.

I am now officially treading water.

After going .500 during Weeks 13 (9-7) and Week 14 (7-9) I currently sit at 7-8 heading into tonight’s Cardinals-49ers matchup on Monday Night Football (I have Arizona -3). So while I’m still 23 games over .500 for the year (111-88), I don’t like this feeling that I’m limping towards the finish line.

Of course, when one of the games I missed was taking the Steelers (-10) over the Browns, and then the Browns actually won, I guess I can’t be too upset. Josh Cribbs was right when he said that fans would pretty forgive everything if the team beat the Steelers.

I, however, do not have one game Super Bowls that I can count on. My goal is to get to at least 30 games .500 by the end of Week 17. That means I need a good showing this week.

Let’s roll through the Week 15 TV schedule, point spreads, and picks.

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