I have a different idea. It may sound crazy, you may not like it, but here it goes…

WIN NOW. Keep Peyton and trade the picks.

I guarantee about 50 percent of you are shaking your head at me or muttering out loud that I am insane. I am ok with that.

Here is my proposal: trade the first overall pick to…the Cleveland Browns. They don’t have the guy in Colt McCoy, he just isn’t ready. Keep him as a backup or trade him for another pick. They need a big, strong pocket passer in Cleveland, and they have two first-round picks this year.

If I were the Colts, I would demand BOTH first-rounders for this year and next year’s first round pick and maybe one more pick. You use those picks to bolster the putrid defense and you let Peyton have two or three more good years to try and win it all one more time.

As far as drafting a QB in this draft, why not take a chance in the second or third round on Kellen Moore from Boise St.?

Image source: The Bullgator

He doesn’t have to play now, but you definitely upgrade your backups going from Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter to the NCAA’s all-time wins leader. Who knows? Maybe Moore is the future. Even if he’s not, you won’t have to spend a high pick and money on him and he can develop.

I know now all of you are compiling a list of why Kellen Moore won’t make it as a pro. He’s too short. Well, Drew Brees is about the same height. He doesn’t have a huge arm. Perhaps, but Moore is extremely accurate, which, along with number of college starts, is more predictive of NFL success than arm strength.

I am not saying this WILL work. But it is something that could work.

I think a fellow named Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round. How has he fared? Pretty well I would say.

Yes, the likelihood is slim that Moore is the Brady level of talent, but if Peyton is healthy and the Colts want to make a mad dash at the Super Bowl over the next three years, this move is the one to make.

Problem is, this team is peaking at absolutely the wrong time.

Is Indy losing by winning?

You could understand Blue Horseshoe going out and winning one game, as they did versus Tennessee to avoid the stigma of a historic 0-16 season. Even two wins would still give Indy the #1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

But running into the Division Champion but also free-falling Houston Texans Thursday night was an unexpected road block, as a back-breaking three-game winning streak is suddenly very attainable.

I get a team wanting to finish strong and Indy getting two nice wins to close out the home schedule. But in the process they have made life very difficult for themselves in the ‘Suck For Luck’ sweepstakes.

Everyone knows the Jacksonville Jaguars – Indy’s Week 17 opponent – are capable of sinking down to the occasion – not to mention their fan base, which will step down and stay away from the season finale in droves. And if the Jaguars can “run the table” and finish 4-12, they could even get a high enough draft pick to put them in the conversation to trade up for Andrew Luck.

But it’s always more difficult to win, actually more easy to lose, on the road – even if asking Dan Orlovsky to perform worse than Blaine Gabbert is daunting.

Impact of Barkley’s return to USC

Up until about 24 hours ago, the #2 overall draft pick was not such a bad thing for a team that will eventually be in need of a new quarterback. That was until Matt Barkley announced that he will stay for a senior season at the University of Southern California.

From Barkley’s perspective that is not a bad move (barring injury). Tommy Trojan is off probation next year and Barkley will enter the 2012 season as the Heisman front-runner. Of course being the most well-known candidate pre-season in the Heisman race frequently proves not to pan out, as the ’12 versions of Robert Griffin III will no doubt emerge with a groundswell of support.

But Barkley staying at SC suddenly makes the QB pool for the 2012 Draft much more shallow. RGIII is projected as a top-five pick (and has to come out this year, in my opinion, while iron is still hot), but unlike Andrew Luck not as NFL-ready. If Peyton Manning is healthy, Griffin would be perfect to stash away and develop for 1-2 years.

After that, there are no “can’t miss” types. Oklahoma’s Landry Jones currently projects middle first-round, but comes across similar to Christian Ponder or Landry’s predecessor at OU, Sam Bradford. After Jones, there are no others whose skill set pops out, unless someone off-the-radar really progresses in the pre-draft workout process.

New entrants in “Suck for Luck” Sweepstakes

If Indianapolis does lose New Year’s Day, there will be a messy situation. If Archie Manning comes out and says that his son might not be crazy about starting while looking over his shoulder at his eventual replacement, it will not be the first time the Manning clan had sent a strong hint towards an NFL organization (see Eli Manning/San Diego Chargers/2004).

But again, there’s that $28 million roster bonus albatross, an awful lot for a 36-year old fresh off a couple of neck surgeries and now on a rebuilding team.

Should Indy complete their collapse and finish 3-13, the Minnesota Vikings could get the #1 pick by losing out, but I see the Vikes winning at least one game – if not Saturday in DC, then definitely against a Chicago Bears team with who knows how many ‘customers’, I mean players, potentially nervous about the next shoe dropping in the Sam Hurd saga.

The St. Louis Rams would be interesting, and stand a real chance of going 2-14 with the Steelers/49ers left on the schedule. Sam Bradford regressed this year, but then again so did everything around them. Would STL pull the plug on that investment, with the smart money having Luck being the better product in time? Or do they trade down, where they can get an impressive haul (i.e. multiple draft picks) which could be the better route for a franchise that simply needs more productive bodies everywhere?

An intriguing free agent QB

And then there are teams already in contention who could use an elite quarterback right now, and there just happens to be one with a QB who WILL be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2011 season.

For the record, Drew Brees indicated on a radio interview with Westwood One Thursday night that he has zero intention of leaving the New Orleans Saints, and that the contract situation will be hammered out when appropriate.

But there’s the cautionary tale of Albert Pujols. Yes different sport, but similar story line. Brees seems to remain a perfect fit for the NOLA Saints – but a contract is a contract, and a contract expiring is a contract expiring.

What if Drew gets an offer too good to pass up??

There’s a franchise that has had a fantastic turnaround this season, but still, with hindsight being 20-20, laments selecting Alex Smith over what would had been the second incarnation of Joe Montana with the first pick of the 2005 Draft.

Aaron Rodgers will now never come through that door in Frisco, but Drew Brees, still in his prime, would be the next best thing – and the Niners’ missing link.

And I can think a few other landing spots for Drew – the Houston Texans now have the playoff monkey off their backs and Matt Schaub (when healthy) is decent, but Brees would be an upgrade. And can a New York Jets fan look anyone square in the eye and say they’re happy with Mark Sanchez?

Final Thought

So expect teams to play to win in Week 17, as it should be. If his health checks out, Peyton Manning should still be good for three more years while Indy develops Griffin, or someone else. And there are too many examples of QB’s being thrown into the fire and being ruined on bad teams (see Archie Manning, and now potentially Sam Bradford) or players who simply didn’t live up to their college exploits (see Matt Leinart/Vince Young).

When it comes to finding a special quarterback either by way of the NFL Draft or free agency, the process often comes down to – what else…

Luck.

It was just assumed that Barkley was going to enter April’s NFL draft as one of the top picks.  NFL Draft experts had Barkley projected as the No. 2 quarterback that would be taken in next year’s draft and well within one the top 10 picks.

Matt Barkley definitely changed the outlook of next year’s NFL draft and if other junior signal callers follow his lead, the landscape of the NFL will look a lot different for teams looking to select a quarterback.

* – Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III photo credit: via TSM Interactive

In the history of the NFL Draft, it is hard to recall a time that the top four quarterback prospects were all juniors.  As the college football season progressed, it became apparent that the top quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin III, and Landry Jones) to be selected in April’s NFL Draft would be juniors if they all left school.

All four junior quarterback prospects were believed to be leaving after this season and were projected to get drafted in the first round.  Here is a look at where WalterFootball had these quarterbacks being taken in the first round as of December 10^th.

• Andrew Luck (Stanford)- First overall pick
• Matt Barkley (USC)- Top 10 pick
• Robert Griffin III (Baylor)- Top 15 pick
• Landry Jones (Oklahoma)- Top 20 Pick

These were the only quarterbacks that were projected to get selected in the first round. Behind them is Texas A&M senior, Ryan Tannehill.  Tannehill is projected to be drafted in the second round and his stock might be moving up with Matt Barkley’s decision.

After Matt Barkley’s decision on Thursday, all eyes will be on these other junior quarterbacks to see what their plans are for next season.  Now that Barkley has decided to stay in school, it proves that it is not a guarantee that these players will just run for the money at the next level.

Some of have called this “the year of the quarterback,” in regards to April’s NFL Draft but only if these coveted junior quarterbacks don’t stay for their senior seasons would that be possible.  For those teams like Washington, Buffalo, Cleveland, and Seattle that need a quarterback, they will be anxiously waiting to see what the rest of the juniors decide.  If all of them decide to stay in school, then this could turn  into one of the weaker drafts for quarterbacks.

A lot of NFL general managers and fan bases wanting one of these junior quarterbacks under center next season will be paying close attention to the rumors about their decisions regarding next season very closely.

*******

Actually, I love the thought of the NFL Draft.

For some reason, I spend three months every year trying to find the perfect scenario for the Vikings when it comes to the last weekend in April, only to sit and stare at the screen when everything falls apart. It’s just another thing to add to the list of things that make me hate sports.

For some reason though, I come back every year, and this year was no different.

The Vikings are entering a season with a new head coach and a lot of questions. What better way to get a head start on everything than with a great draft right? Well, I wouldn’t call this year’s draft a great one, but I wouldn’t call it a terrible one either. I’m not one to assign or even look at draft grades. I’d rather assess the picks by need and caliber, which we are about to do.

Round 1
Christian Ponder, QB – Florida State

This pick came as a shock to pretty much everyone and was named the surprise of Round 1. It shouldn’t have been. The pick makes complete sense based on what the Vikings are trying to accomplish.

Head Coach Leslie Frazier made it very obvious that the Vikings were going to target a quarterback early in the draft. Frazier didn’t want a quarterback; he NEEDED one.

Do I think Ponder is the guy they wanted? Probably not, but he was what was available at the 12 spot. Minnesota didn’t have a third round pick due to their mid-season trade with New England, which landed them Randy Moss (I would prefer not to talk about this), making it very difficult to move up the board to grab a guy like Locker or Gabbert.

I initially described the Ponder pick as a panic move by the Vikings organization, which it kind of was. Minnesota desperately wanted to trade down and accumulate more draft picks, but when that wasn’t going to happen and with the rate of QBs flying off the board early on, they didn’t feel confident enough to wait it out and see what was waiting for them at pick 43 in the second round. So Ponder was really their only option.

Ponder is not a bad quarterback. He’s a guy who threw for almost 70% as a junior at Florida State, and he put up somewhat decent stats last year even though he was battling an injury in his throwing arm. Ponder was viewed at a Round 1-type talent coming into the year, and was only downgraded because of injury concerns. He was able to get himself healthy and stood out in all of his pre-draft workouts, including a strong showing at the Senior Bowl in which he took home the MVP trophy.

I’m not going to be fully convinced on the Ponder selection until I get to watch him play or watch some tape on him. With guys like Prince Amukamura and Nick Fairley still on the board, it would have been nice to see them in purple as well, but a team in the NFL cannot win without a quarterback, and the Vikings hope they have found theirs in Christian Ponder.

Round 2
Kyle Rudolph, TE – Notre Dame

I did not like this pick. At all. I think I may be the only one.

Granted Minnesota has three tight ends on their roster — Visanthe Shiancoe, Jim Kleinsasser (North Dakota Native), and Jeff Dugan –  who are 30 or older and have contracts that expire after the 2011 season. And Rudolph was far and away the highest rated TE in the entire 2011 Draft class and will hopefully give Christian Ponder a nice target for multiple years to come.

That said, the Vikings had higher needs coming into the draft than tight end, especially in the second round, and even more importantly when they wouldn’t pick again until the middle of the fourth round. With guys like Rahim Moore, Marvin Austin, Da’Quan Bowers, and Brandon Harris on the board, who all would have filled bigger needs, I felt those would have been better options. Alas, I’m not the one making the decisions, so again, like Ponder, we’ll just have to wait and see how everything pans out.

Round 4
Christian Ballard, DL – Iowa

I don’t know a lot about Ballard. What I do know is he is another classic case of a guy with a lot of talent who graded out high with a lot of scouts, but he has too many character issues to be drafted where he should have been. First round talent, fourth round character.

Minnesota is no stranger to taking players like him, but when a guy openly admits to smoking pot during the NFL Combine when he knows he’s going to get tested, you have to question his decision making. Unfortunately, Minnesota might not have a lot of time to wait for him to mature and shape up with a Kevin Williams suspension looming and the possible departure of Ray Edwards.

Round 5
Brandon Burton, DB – Utah

Sounds like another high value guy who slipped in the draft. Nice pickup for Minnesota who have found a lot of holes in their secondary over the last few years due to injury, age, and flat out bad play.

Round 6
Demarcus Love, OL – Arkansas
Mistral Raymond, DB – South Florida
Brandon Fusco, OL – Slippery Rock
Ross Homan, LB – Ohio State

Am I happy that the Vikings waited until the sixth round to finally draft an offensive lineman? Absolutely not. Am I excited to see what a guy who attended a college named Slippery Rock can do? Absolutely yes. That might be the best college name I have ever heard. I want to know everything about that school now.

Ross Homan could end up being a great pick. In the little bit of footage I’ve seen of him, he’s got great footwork and is extremely quick for a guy his size. He was the captain of the Ohio State defense last year, which is definitely not something to take lightly. Homan looks to be a hard working guy who will fit great on special teams early and can hopefully find a solid role in the LB corps in the years to come.

Round 7
D’Aundre Reed, DL – Arizona
Stephen Burton, WR –West Texas A&M

I know absolutely nothing about these players. I can only hope they find their role on the team and can contribute anyway they can. It’s tough to expect a lot out of seventh round guys, can only hope they stick around and be productive.

But mock drafters would be wise to proceed with caution, as the uncertain labor situation makes projecting the draft even more difficult this year than it normally is.

This year’s draft might be the most interesting draft due to the uncertainty of the league’s expiring CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement). Thankfully the draft will go on with or without a CBA, but how teams approach the draft will be drastically different depending on the situation.

As it stands right now, the league’s CBA is set to expire in March, and if there is not a new one put in place and agreed upon, the NFL will effectively be “locked out” until the situation is solved. If this situation were to happen, the same draft model that we’ve had year after year will be in place, meaning the top draft pick could make upwards of $45 million, depending on position. That is way too much money for an unproven player and we all know this.

The current draft model has caused the NFL Draft, which happens to be one of the most exciting events in all of sports, to be boring. Teams are unwilling to make trades within the top 10 and spend top dollar on rookie players, taking out a lot of excitement and anticipation that makes the draft as exciting as it could be.

It is common belief that if a new CBA is reached before the April 28 draft there will be a rookie pay scale put in place, maxing contract years to 3 years and keeping salaries around $5 million/year at most. This will allow teams to take players that are more high risk/high reward than taking the “safe” pick at the top of the draft. Too often a player is described as the best at his position by all of the “experts” but is then taken 10 spots later than he should simply because teams don’t want to spend so much money.

Rookie pay scales will not only allow teams to rethink their draft philosophy, but will also allow for flexibility when it comes to draft day trades. Organizations won’t be as nervous to pull the trigger and trade into the top 5 anymore.

With all of this uncertainty, it is almost impossible to put together an accurate mock draft board, which is by far the most common sports topic this time of year until Spring Training starts. Without a new CBA teams will be forced to draft blindly as there will be no free agency and no trades involving players in the offseason.

A restructured CBA, which would also set a salary cap after this last season without one, would allow teams to set their rosters as accurately as possible before late April. Without knowing the future state of the league, creating a mock draft would be pointless. I’ve seen countless mocks that have up to four quarterbacks being drafted within the top 20 picks. The last time there were four QBs drafted in the first round was in 2004, and the last time four quarterbacks were taken within the first 20 picks was in 1999, when there were five drafted within the first 12 picks.

Unless a writer plans on keeping track of two mock drafts, it would be pointless to even attempt to complete one and publish it. At this point players should be evaluated on a round by round basis, not which pick number they should go at. Naturally players are going to be connected with certain teams based on scheme/need, but until we know the future of the NFL, there is no point figuring out when or even how they would get on the field.

Then get ready to be humbled, and often.

Just the quarterback position alone proves the total crapshoot in trying to determine what a player’s ability or potential may be. And very often it comes down to attributes that cannot be measured at the NFL Combine or even on a Wonderlic test. Maybe it’s that ‘swagger’ rating used in the Madden 11 game.

The hits and misses in the recent history of the NFL Draft are well documented. I start with 1990 when Mel Kiper was totally sold on Heisman winner Andre Ware, the seventh overall pick that year. The tape of Kiper declaring Ware the next big thing comes out every so often. Like everyone else, Mel has had his hits and misses over the years. The next year scouts were drooling over San Diego St. QB Dan McGwire, in part because he happened to be 6’8”. McGwire could never come close to cutting it in the NFL, and after a shaky first pre-season appearance that year, then-Green Bay Packers radio commentator Max McGee said on-air that McGwire looked ‘like a big dummy’.

The hits and misses were well documented. Drew Bledsoe was a #1 overall pick and had a nice career. Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger all wound up being hits from the 2004 Draft, two of them have Super Bowl rings and the third has not done bad either. Peyton Manning has lived up to all advance billing. Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, Daunte Culpepper (for a while), there are plenty of first round picks that were guessed right on.

Then there are the ‘cant-misses’ that missed badly. Rick Mirer, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, David Carr, JaMarcus Russell (current Packer Matt Flynn was his back-up at LSU), and of course the captain of this list, Ryan Leaf.

And then there are those passed over before coming stars, Tom Brady drafted in sixth round, Tony Romo being undrafted, and finally Kurt Warner having to cut his teeth in the Arena League before finally getting a look. Brett Favre lasted to the 35th overall pick of the 1991 draft, being by-passed by the Packers at #33. GB wound up trading a first-round pick for the then unproven Favre the following year.

Which leads me to the current Arizona Cardinals quarterback system and the fate of Matt Leinart.

First off, I find it hilarious that the talking heads on television are still waiting for the Cardinals to come to Kurt Warner’s house and drag him kicking and screaming out of retirement.

LEINART SAW HANDWRITING ON WALL W/MAX HALL (RIGHT)

It’s not happening, and Warner can’t possibly make it any more clear. He announced his retirement soon after last season. He’s said repeatedly on Twitter he’s not coming back (that’s straight from the horse’s mouth), as ESPN mused about his absence during a pre-season game. #13 is not walking back through that door, he’s 180 degrees from Favre. Not that Favre didn’t have the right to un-retire or that Warner does not have the right to un-retire. Warner’s just moved on, he’s obviously much more than about football, although I believe he will make a great TV analyst in time.

It’s no surprise that Matt Leinart was a failure in his last chance to seize the Cardinals starting QB job. Warner himself was thought of as a stopgap when he came to the Cards in 2005, and conventional wisdom had him merely keeping the seat warm, before being named the starter the first time Leinart spit the bit early in ’07.

The amazing thing about the Leinart’s career path was how San Francisco 49ers fans were bent when he did not declare for the 2005 NFL Draft, where he was projected as the #1 overall choice. The Niners wound up taking Alex Smith that year, bypassing a kid that was playing locally at Cal the previous fall and completing 23 consecutive passes against the vaunted USC Trojans in the LA Coliseum. Maybe that day the NFL draftniks should have figured out who the top QB prospect should had been.

Leinart ends up slipping to the tenth overall pick in the 2006 Draft, and it turns out AZ may have been better served with Jay Cutler (the #11 overall pick) if they were willing to endure that headache. Leinart’s legacy will likely be simply of someone who fared much better at the NCAA than NFL level. Whether it’s his personality or work ethic or getting the respect of teammates, Leinart apparently fell short in those areas that are hard to measure before draft day.

I was not high on Leinart in fantasy football turns going into this season. And the Cardinals hedged their bets by getting Derek Anderson as a free agent and drafting Jon Skelton in the fifth round of this year’s draft. My original projection was that it would be Week 3 when coach Ken Whisenhunt would make his final decision to name Anderson as the starter, which would not be a tasty thought to AZ fans or fantasy owners of Larry Fitzgerald.

Fortunately, though – I don’t see Anderson lasting long into the season.

The Cardinals decided to give a free agent offer to undrafted rookie and local product product Max Hall, who has emerged as the Cardinals’ best QB period during camp, and suddenly could end up being the franchise’s future.

The quick Bio Blast on Max. Nephew of former Dallas Cowboy Danny White. Originally went to Arizona State, eventually transferred to BYU, where he had a nice three-year career in the Mountain West Conference and won some big games vs. the likes of UCLA and Oklahoma. Kind of a Danny Ainge 2.0, it was said that one practice in Provo had to be halted after Max got into three fights on the field. Also went on a Brandon Phillips routine calling out the University of Utah program after a BYU/Utah clash (Utah fans allegedly doused Max’s folks). Also called out Arizona Wildcat fans for the same reason, but more recently backed off (likely because U of A people buy Cardinals tickets too).

The Cardinals coaching staff has raved about Hall, mentioning that he has some ‘Kurt Warner’ qualities. From mini-camp on, it’s been said that Hall has shown that he has all the NFL throws, and more importantly, can command the respect of his teammates. In games, Max has been equally impressive, going 7-9 for 126 yards passing (plus rushing TD) in the Cards pre-season finale. Meanwhile Anderson, Leinart, and Skelton had 61 passing yards combined. It was enough to convince the coaching staff to cut their losses with Leinart and name Hall as the #2 QB going into the season, that’s #2 and fast closing in on #1.

So why would Hall go un-selected on Draft Day??? A quick look at the player profile gives a good clue.

Height: 6’1”

Actually, it’s said that Hall is only a shade over 6 feet (6′ 1/4”), by comparison Leinart is 6’5” and Derek Anderson 6’6”. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers in 6’2”, Favre also 6’2”, Tony Romo 6’2” Drew Brees 6′ even. One of these days scouts are going to figure out that height is over-rated.

It isn’t a matter of if but when Hall gets the starting job, and I figure it shouldn’t be long. Rookies ending up seeing significant time as a NFL starting QB is rare, not to mention an undrafted rook. But also take into consideration Hall grew up in football and he turns 25 in October and played in a pro-style offense in college. I would look at him more as the equivalent of a second or third year man.

The Cardinals open the 2010 season at St. Louis, Anderson might be able to get through that game. AZ then goes to Atlanta before hosting Oakland, and then play the Chargers and Saints leading into a Week 6 bye. Conventional wisdom says around that time a change would be made if Derek is not lighting up the skies. And even the Cards are 2-3 at that point, there would be plenty of time to right the ship in the weak NFC West.

Or Sam Bradford could totally outplay Derek on opening day and Whisenhunt may get the sense of urgency even sooner.

And actually Danny White wouldn’t be surprised if Max thinks he should be starting now.

I would not totally put the anointing oil on Max Hall at this point, but at the very least I can see him doing a solid job this season, or at least easily exceed the low bar that was set by Leinart. And having the likes of Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston at one’s disposal, as well as playing in the NFC West, also will make such a transition smoother. If in a fantasy football league and looking for a fill-in QB, I would make a waiver claim now, especially if you have a spot where you can afford to stash someone away for a while.

Hopefully Max Hall will at least be a good short-term answer in the desert, and that Kurt Warner can finally R.I.P (Retire In Peace).

Luckily for us all, Jimmy Traina captured the video:

Update: I found a quicker, better quality video…

The name of the video “I Hate Chris Berman” may be the best part about it.

And here is the original video I posted, the extended cut I guess you could call it:

(Video h/t: Jimmy Traina)

By the way, check out Hot Clicks today. It’s celebrating a very happy 3rd birthday. As always, we’re honored to be included as one of the hot clicks.

There were trades, surprise picks, the new format, the complete implosion of Mel Kiper’s Big Board, and lots of big bear hugs for NFL Attorney General Roger Goodell, and much, much more.

At least, I thought all of those things happened, but that was before pick #25 happened.

Because, you see, what happened at pick #25 will forever determine the fate of Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, the Broncos franchise itself, and perhaps even the future course of humanity.

So, after having an evening to digest last night’s picks and then the post-draft coverage last evening and this morning, let’s count down the 10 most important moments from the 1st round of the 2010 NFL Draft:

1. Tim Tebow woke up on Thursday morning and decided on a green shirt for his NFL Draft party.

2. The Jacksonville Jaguars passed on Tim Tebow, the potential savior of their franchise, city, and souls, with their first selection.

3. The Denver Broncos executed a trade to move back into the first round, trading three picks for the 25th pick.

4. Josh McDaniels called Tim Tebow and, according to Tebow, they engaged in some small talk.

5. ESPN and NFL Network cameras captured Tebow talking on his iPhone, the holiest of endorsements ever received by Apple.

6. After confessing his sins to Tebow (trading away a “franchise” QB and one of the best WRs in the league), McDaniels informs Tebow that the Broncos are selecting him.

7. Tebow immediately has an impure thought about going up against Brady Quinn in a training camp hamburger drill. (Not a gay impure thought mind you, but rather how much of a mismatch it would be, and how easily Tebow would crush the pretty boy, despite Quinn’s mantastic biceps.)

8. Roger Goodell steps to the podium with the most important words since Moses issued The Commandments. “With the 25th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos select Tim Tebow.”

9. Reporters that Tebow didn’t know were invited to his NFL Draft party start coming out of closets and from behind potted plants to interview him. He blesses us all with the most humble explanation a first round NFL draft pick has ever given immediately after being drafted.

10. And finally, barely making the cut, with the first pick in the draft the St. Louis Rams picked a quarterback with a lightning quick release and pinpoint accuracy who has never been described as a “project” or a “potentially great special teams player.” Yeah, that actually happened, even if no one has talked about it since pick #25.

There you have it folks. The 10 Most Important Moments from the First Day of the NFL Draft. ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, and SI.com all agree, according to these screenshots taken around 7:30 this morning.

(And thank goodness SI.com actually felt Sam Bradford was worthy of sharing space with Tebow, otherwise I would have forgotten about that one!)

**********

* – Josh McDaniels photo credit: Deadspin

* – Tim Tebow photo credit: AP Photo/Mark Humphrey via CBSNews.com

Let’s take a look back then move ahead and look at four more QBs who could be fun to watch this weekend.

1.  After last night, I almost have as much credibility as Mel Kiper.

Not that I did anything, other unleash my master predictions via twitter of course, but Mel Kiper really made himself look foolish. He had Jimmy Clausen as not only his top ranked quarterback, but as his 3^RD BEST PLAYER IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT! (In case you missed the draft, Clausen is still available 32 picks later)

I watched the NFL Network coverage of the draft because I actually like to enjoy it, but I can imagine ESPN did anything they could to cover up that little mistake.

2. Good job Raiders? Good enough.

One of my few correct predictions yesterday. Is this the right pick? Maybe not. Is it better than taking Bruce Campbell or another quarterback that they would have to pay Top 10 money to? Absolutely.

3. How soon before we move Jerry Jones into Al Davis territory?

I’m not saying that the Dez Bryant pick was bad, but was it right? Yes it is flashy much like his stadium and his bar talk, but did Jerry Jones actually watch the Cowboys final game last year? Considering the fact that both the Giants and the Eagles spent first round picks on pass rushers, I think a lineman would have been smart there.

Granted this is a deep draft and a lineman could be available in round two, I still think this pick was for Jones to prove people wrong about passing on Randy Moss 13 years ago.

And speaking of the Eagles….

4. Brandon Graham over Earl Thomas?

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t the Eagles secondary struggle last season after losing Brian Dawkins to the Broncos? Wouldn’t the logical solution to having a need in the secondary be actually drafting a top 10 guy who fills that need?

I realize some teams loved Graham’s versatility as a linebacker/defensive end, but neither of those two things include playing safety.

5. For as much as I love Tim Tebow….

….I think the Broncos did a terrible job drafting players in the first round. They did a good job maneuvering around, trading pick after pick and getting into position to get their players, but couldn’t they have taken better players?

Both Thomas (who I wrote about last week) and Tebow are two or three year projects at best. Not the way I would spend my money, but that’s why I don’t run the Broncos.

Vikings fans consensus on Tebow going to Denver? “Thanks Denver! We never liked him anyway!”

6. “What do you mean I didn’t get picked? Was it something I said?”

Ohhhhhhhhhh Jimmy. Look at this little mess you’ve created.

Teams were reportedly scared off by Clausen after his appearance with John Gruden on ESPN last week. After being called out on missed assignments and taking too many timeouts in a game, Clausen placed blame on his receivers and coaching staff. He also seemed to not be paying attention and looked annoyed when Gruden ripped into him a little bit.

Now I’m not quite old enough to remember this as well as others, but wasn’t that the big problem with Ryan Leaf? Criticism problems and maturity level?

Not good Jimmy. Not good at all. At least you throw a perfect spiral. That still counts for something right?

7. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Congratulations Seattle and Green Bay. You both picked up great draft picks without giving up anything but your own time and patience. Good things come to those who wait. Except Jimmy Clausen.

Looking Ahead to Day 2 and Day 3

I originally thought I there were going to be four quarterbacks taken in round one, and I was going to drop some of my knowledge about four other quarterbacks I am keeping an eye on this weekend. Unfortunately I was wrong about the first part, but that isn’t going to stop me.

Jarrett Brown, West Virginia
With a 4.54 40 and natural over-the-top delivery as well as very strong arm, Brown helped himself a lot at the Combine. The biggest knock on him is that he only started one year at West Virginia and is considered a project, like most day two and three picks. It is very likely he will be the next quarterback taken after the big four. Teams love his mobility and potential. If he doesn’t end up as the fifth quarterback taken, the next guy on the list sure will be.

Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
LeFevour hurt his stock draft back in February after his agent suggested he didn’t throw during the combine, and that decision didn’t sit well with scouts and coaches. We haven’t really heard much from him since. He is a guy who is projected as a second or third rounder, and much like Brown has a great mix of mobility and passing skills. LeFevour is the only player in NCAA history with over 12,000 passing yards and 2,500 rushing yards and sits 2nd all time in total offensive yards.

Max Hall, BYU
Hall is the all time win leader at BYU. That means he won more games than Ty Detmer, Jim McMahon and Steve Young. He is a player who tries to make the case that production leads to more production, something the NFL can either verify or completely destroy. He is 24 years old which at any other position could be a negative, but at quarterback could actually help him (See: Warner, Kurt and Favre, Brett). He has great leadership skills, but can be considered a system-type quarterback, which definitely doesn’t help the draft stock unless your name is Bradford or Tebow.

Jevan Snead, Ole Miss
Remember him?  Snead was the leader of the pre-season #8 team in the nation, once ranked as high as #4, and was a projected Heisman winner at the beginning of the college season. So what happened? Well Ole Miss finished 9-4 and Snead finished fifth in the SEC in passing yards (among those ahead of him was Jonathan Crompton from Tennessee who wasn’t even invited to the Combine in February) and had an embarrassing 1-1 TD to INT ratio. Though he could be a day three pick, Snead might find his way into a solid backup role later in his career.

Rather than holding the draft on Saturday and Sunday during the day, the NFL is spicing things up a bit and showcasing the first round of the draft all on its own during primetime. They are then doing the same thing for the second and third rounds, followed by the remainder of the draft on Saturday.

Here is all of the need-to-know information for the 2010 NFL Draft, which if you didn’t know is tonight, well you probably need to come out of your coma.

2010 NFL Draft TV Schedule

NFL Draft 1st Round

• 1st Round Date: Thursday, April 22nd
• 1st Round Start Time: 7:30 PM ET
• 1st Round TV: ESPN & the NFL Network

NFL Draft 2nd and 3rd Rounds

• Rounds 2 and 3 Date: Friday, April 23rd
• Rounds 2 and 3 Start Time: 6:00-10:30 PM ET
• Rounds 2 and 3 TV: ESPN & the NFL Network

NFL Draft Rounds 4-7

• Rounds 4-7 Date: Saturday, April 24th
• Rounds 4-7 Start Time: 10:00 am – 6:00 PM ET
• Rounds 4-7 TV: ESPN & the NFL Network

I was going to link you to some mock drafts, but seeing as how there 4,598,139 of them that have been posted on the Internet over the last 48 hours, and you’ll get to see the real thing in about 9 hours, why waste your time? If you really want some mock drafts, click here.

Otherwise, remember that no matter how poorly your favorite team drafts tonight, they will not draft as poorly as the Raiders (JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and so on).

It’s a thought perfectly summed up by the T-shirt above, designed and sold at AlternativeHero.com, a site that we wholeheartedly endorse for T-Shirts that are probably cooler than you are (because you’re reading a sports blog) and certainly cooler than I am (because I’m writing a sports blog).

Anyway, click to check out this shirt and their others. Then resume your regularly scheduled giddiness in anticipation of tonight’s draft festivities.

And while I’m being a bit snarky, the fact remains that no matter how many things are said tonight that later prove to be false (Trust us! Ryan Leaf is GOOD!), the draft is still tons of fun for all college football and NFL fans. So enjoy it.

Just don’t start buying any Super Bowl tickets because your team picked a few guys that you thought were totally awesome in college. We’ll see how they do at the next level. (Yes, I’m looking at you Tim Tebow.)

Midwest Sports Fans (MSF) Disclosure of Material Connection: MSF does receive a percentage for any T-shirt sales that result from clicking on links contained in this post. That said, MSF only writes about stories that we believe will interest our readers, and we only link to and endorse sites and services that we would use or have used ourselves. We are disclosing this in accordance with the Federal Trade Commission’s 16 CFR, Part 255: “Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising.”

Mr. Brandt and I did our first podcast interview about a month ago, focusing primarily on the history of the scouting combine and how NFL personnel departments operate. This podcast gets far more specific about the 2010 NFL Draft, which is right around the corner: next Thursday.

Use the player below to listen to the podcast right here on the site. The Gil Brandt interview begins at about the 9:30 mark.

You can also listen to the MSF Podcast on iTunes and subscribe to future episodes.

Among the topics Mr. Brandt and I discuss:

• How he spends the week leading up to the draft and draft day.
• The latest movement in Brandt’s Hot 100.
• His thoughts on Eric Berry and why the Tennessee safety may not be a top 5 pick even though he might be the “best” player in the draft.
• The positives and negatives of Jimmy Clausen.
• Why Brandt has Tim Tebow listed among the top 30 players overall in his Hot 100, and how the criticisms about Tebow remind Brandt of criticisms faced by Roger Staubach when he came into the league.
• What late first round or early second round pick could have a Percy Harvin-like impact on the league as a rookie?
• We also get to some reader questions, including the positives and negatives of trading back to acquire more picks and how teams balance drafting the “best player” with certain measurables that they look for.
• Finally, because it is his speciality, I ask Gil Brandt for a few names who will get taken very late or be free agents who could blossom someday into NFL stars.

Also, as a special treat for our readers, there is a quick impromptu warm-up conversation between me and fellow MSF writer Nick Gerlach during which we discuss the sordid details of Ben Roethlisberger’s unfortunate partying habits. (Note: there are a few NSFW words uttered during this part of the podcast.)

I hope you enjoy the podcast. It was certainly a thrill for me, and I want to thank Mr. Brandt again for being so generous with his time and opinions.

I know for sure that I have thought and will continue to think that I can assemble a team better than some GMs out there.

My favorite time to pretend I am a GM is when the NFL Draft rolls around. Most people who have a favorite team, in my case the Minnesota Vikings (sad, yes I know), have an opinion for what area said team needs to improve whether it is for talent or personal reasons.

Today’s topic, however, has nothing to do with who the Vikings should draft. As long as it is a quality pick and they don’t reach for a project pick who is then rushed along without proper development (See: Jackson, Tarvaris), I don’t mind who they pick.

Rather, let us take a look at something more general, and one the biggest yearly debates and uncertainties of the NFL Draft: the debate of production vs. potential.

Today we will look at this debate through the prism of two different receivers. Both played for teams in BCS conferences and both were in a BCS bowl game this past season. They will be referred to as WR1 and WR2 to prevent bias.

First up is WR1, who measures out at 6’3” 224 lbs. and had a 40 time in the 4.5 range during the NFL combine in February. He is projected as a late first round pick.

The following quote about WR1 is from Todd McShay on his weekly podcast ESPN First Draft.

“He can come in, run a bunch of nine routes, and run down the field. He can’t run the route tree in the NFL, inconsistent catching the ball intermediate, blocking is not there, all sorts of questions with his game and needs lots of coaching.”

His bio on NFL.com also includes the following:  (WR1) runs sloppy routes and is raw with his route-running in general. Needs to be more consistent with his concentration on the ball. Blocking must improve at the next level, which is tough to swallow given his size.

WR1 seems to lack a lot of the required skills and abilities that it takes to be a top flight receiver, something we have seen in Braylon Edwards, who claims he is a top five receiver in the league, and actually gets paid like one, even though he can’t catch the ball.

Obviously this player has some positives that make him a first round pick. Along with his outstanding size, speed, strength and potentially outstanding upside, he thrived as a receiver in a run dominated offense, which has to count for something. He also has that magical asset that everyone looks for in a receiver, “Playmaking Potential”, which is like being seven feet tall and playing basketball.

Remember: WR1 will be receiving a four year contract and will be in the top 20% of receiver salaries in all of the league.

Now let’s take a look at WR2. He is 5’11” 193 lbs. and finished this past season as the second leading receiver in catches, fifth in yards and seventh in TD catches in all of D-I football. He also ran his 40 yard dash in the 4.5 range and was a punt and kick returner for three years.

Despite the numbers, WR2 is projected as a third round pick because of his size and lack of explosiveness in the vertical game. This makes sense because WR2 is definitely a slot receiver, where as WR1 is projected and expected to be a number one receiver in the league. Number one receivers are always going to be drafted ahead of number two and three receivers. Always.

The key in this debate is time.

How much time does an organization have to sit and wait on a player to potentially become great? There aren’t a lot of teams that can allow a first round pick to be a non-factor for up to three years. Players like that make coaches, GMs, and quarterbacks lose their jobs. Teams without that timetable are more likely to draft guys like WR2.

Then there are teams like the Ravens. The Ravens have a stable, accomplished, and relatively new coaching staff. They also have a young QB who is still developing.

Would the logical pick be to take a slot receiver, one much like WR2, and allow him to step in and contribute right away? He would likely get matched up with nickel corners and linebackers most of the time, and wouldn’t have to face the Darrelle Revises of the league.

Or would the Ravens prefer to take a guy like WR1, let him grow, and have a dynamic one-two punch for ten years? It is no secret the NFL is more of a passing league than it has ever been, and the key to passing the ball is getting it down field. WR1-type guys can do that. WR2-type guys cannot.

We’ve seen the Darius Heyward-Beys and Troy Williamsons of the world come in with superb height and speed and that magical “Playmaking Potential” that we all dream about. And we’ve seen a lot of them fail.

While first round receivers fail, we see guys like Wes Welker thrive in a low profile slot receiver roll and make a greater contribution than anyone else at their position.

It is common knowledge that first round receivers struggle to make their way in the league within the first two or three years. Why take that risk when it is easily avoidable?

Most GMs are afraid of missing “that guy” and taking the wrong player. This happens in every sport. If a player has the potential to make multiple All-Pro teams and become the face of a franchise, it is likely that he will go as early as possible. Who wants to root for a faceless team?

So which receiver is the better pick?

• The guy who can come in right away, catch 60-70 balls and potentially upgrade the passing offense from week one?
• Or the one that takes up to three years to potentially have 100+ catches, lead the league in touchdowns and be in the pro bowl year after year?

Luckily, I was fortunate enough to get one of the most experienced and respected voices in the NFL – Gil Brandt, the father of modern NFL scouting and the Combine – to join me recently for a podcast that will provide an insightful respite from our wall-to-wall March Madness coverage.

Mr. Brandt and I spoke for nearly a half hour about a wide range of topics. If you’re an NFL fan, this is a podcast that you will not want to miss.

Use the player below to listen to my interview with Gil Brandt.

You can also subscribe to the MSF Podcast on iTunes and subscribe to future episodes.

Among the topics we discuss:

• The origin of the Scouting Combine. Did you know that one player traveling from team to team with an armful of X-Rays led to the Eureka! moment that ultimately inspired the Combine?
• We’ve all heard the legend of Mike Mamula and how his sterling Combine performance led to him being drafted in the top 10. Now find out the reason why Mamula was so far ahead of his peers not only in his draft class, but in general.
• What exactly do the Combine stats mean to scouts?
• What role do college scouts play in NFL organizations and what makes a good scout good?
• What makes good organizations like the Indianapolis Colts so consistently good and separates them from organizations like the Rams and Browns? (Can it really be as simply as landing the #1 pick in the right year?)
• In addition to the Combine, Brandt is also credited with two more important innovations: 1) finding undrafted free agents who had successful NFL careers; 2) spotting talent on the basketball floor that could be converted into gridiron success.
• Did you know that Antonio Gates, famous for being a baller-turned-tight end, originally went to Michigan State on a footballs scholarship? I didn’t. It should come as no surprise that Mr. Brandt did.
• Brandt offers his current assessments of the 2010 draft’s top QBs (Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen), its top D-lineman (Suh and McCoy), and its top defensive backs (Eric Berry and Joe Haden).
• And more…

Of all the podcast guests I’ve been fortunate enough to host, I have to say that this one was the most educational. That is not a knock on our past podcast guests; it is an absolute endorsement of Brandt’s incredible wealth of NFL experience and knowledge, plus his ability to cogently explain what he’s seen and learned.

I think it’s safe to say that Gil Brandt has forgotten more about football than I and all of MSF’s readers collectively know. (And it doesn’t sound like Brandt has forgotten very much.)

I hope you enjoy the podcast as much as I enjoyed conducting it. As you’ll hear at the end of it, Mr. Brandt says that he’ll come back on with us once we get closer to the draft. He suggested that I take reader questions in preparation of that conversation, so that is exactly what I will do.

Use the form below to submit your question for Gil Brandt and I’ll choose the most interesting and relevant ones for that podcast.

[gravityform id=1]

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* – Gil Brandt photo credit: NFL Photos via NFL.com

What will the future be for Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate?

Both are the main guns for the Notre Dame offense, and both are eligible to enter the NFL draft. Charlie Weis and athletic director Jack Swarbrick are scheduled to sit down with both Clausen and Tate and talk to them about their future.

Clausen is more likely to end his career at ND and join the draft simply because he already a projected 1st rounder. For Clausen, joining the draft is the smartest choice. Clausen has been the star of the ND team this year. He has, week after week, shown his Heisman capabilities. Maybe the most convincing is that out of other QB’s with 1st round potential, that means Tebow and McCoy, Clausen is more NFL ready than the other two.

Clausen is a polished QB that knows how to make good choices when under pressure. He has both a cannon and an accurate arm. An arm that has not thrown more than 2 INTS this season. Why risk having a bad year next year? Clausen should make the smart choice and enter the NFL draft.

It’s not as easy as a decision for junior Golden Tate.

No doubt Tate has had a great season, but many people see his size, 5’11″, as a big disadvantage. It’s true that being tall is a huge advantage for NFL receivers, but that doesn’t mean a player can’t have a successful career being smaller than average receiver height. If you want an example look at Carolina’s Steve Smith.

It’s a lot harder to predict Tate’s decision. It could really go either way, but my guess is that if Clausen goes so will Tate. Who knows who will be ND’s QB next year, if Clausen does commit to the draft. That decision won’t be made until next season’s training camp. Tate might be a good receiver but not knowing who will be throwing to you next year is a too big of a risk to take.

My guess is either both will stay, but if one goes so will the other one.

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* – Jimmy Clausen / Golden Tate photo credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images via Life.com

MSF: Give us an update on your players currently on NFL rosters.

Gary Glick: Interesting year so far.  We had several that were released and several doing well.  One of the ones to watch is Mike Adams at Arizona (#27).  He is small at 5’8” but has been very effective on special teams and is a very sure tackler.

MSF: How does the beginning of the UFL influence your  landscape? Is this a place where you are going to actively direct your clients who cannot make it on an NFL roster right now? Is the UFL immediately on par, better than, worse than the CFL?

Gary Glick: I was unsure about the UFL until I started talking with some of the coaching staff. In particular, I have gotten to know and have a lot of respect for Coach Fassel. It doesn’t appear that the UFL is trying to compete with the NFL.  In fact, in some instances, it looks like a place for players as well as coaches who would like another opportunity in the NFL.  I have placed several players so far and watched the games. It’s a good brand of football and I hope it takes off.

The UFL and CFL have their pros and cons.  The CFL is widely scouted by the NFL teams but is an 18-game season.  Also, once a player enters a contract, they cannot break the contract even if an NFL wants them. Along those lines, most CFL teams try to have the player sign a two-year deal.  That would lock the player out of the NFL for a significant time.

The UFL is new and currently only has a six-game season, so players are free to try for the NFL much quicker than they would if they were in the CFL.

On the other hand, the CFL is more established than the UFL. I guess time will tell the success of the UFL and the players who choose to participate.

MSF: Regarding the Dez Bryant story, there has been speculation that Deion Sanders might be working as a de facto “runner” for Eugene Parker.  I know that you cannot comment on the specifics, but can you at least describe to our readers what a “runner” is and what the NCAA’s rules are to prevent “runners” and agents from getting close to college athletes.

Gary Glick: In general, “runners” work for agencies and are usually persons who will attend games and work behind the scenes to meet players for the agencies.  It’s a way to bend (break) the rules as to when an agenct may make contact with a player.  It’s widespread and really places agencies on uneven playing fields, especially if the person serving in the “runner” capacity is a famous athlete.

I am not saying Deion is doing this but it does raise eyebrows when Deion was involved with the Crabtree decision to choose Eugene Parker as his agent and now offers training to another highly sought after prospect in Dez Bryant.  Not coincidentally, Eugene Parker was Deion’s agent so there is a natural connection.

MSF: In your experience, speaking generally, have you seen former NFL players use their stature and “cred” to cozy up to athletes with the implicit or explicit goal of “handing” them to specified agents? Is this typically something they are compensated for, either over- or under-the-table?

Gary Glick: Yes to both.  It’s a very common practice for agents’ clients to use their stature to recruit athletes-especially at their alma mater.

MSF: One of the most disappointing developments of the college football season so far has been the injuries to Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham, both of whom would have been top 10 picks had they come out prior to this season.  What would you have advised them to do last year? Do you think their injury problems this year will prompt players currently on the fence to go pro? Do you think it should?

Gary Glick: It’s easy in retrospect.  Honestly, I would have advised Bradford to come out.  He was a lock to be the 1^st overall pick.  As we can see, there is a huge injury risk in returning.  That’s not to say that he still won’t be recognized as the best QB in the country (in my opinion he is) but we will have to see what longer range effects his injury will have.

Gresham, on the other hand, is a TE, and although he is widely thought to be the best TE in the country, there was no guarantee as to where he would have been drafted.  I would have advised him to give it serious thought but do what he felt he should do.

I am fairly high on players getting their education and developing in college unless the player will be a top 5 or 10 pick.  It seems like every year players who should stay in do just the opposite and come out and, vice versa, those that probably should come out choose to stay in (see Matt Leinert).