Is the head coaching turnover about to get as bad as the NHL or even the NBA (where all 15 Eastern Conference teams changed coaches in a two-year period in the mid-2000s)? That remains to be seen, but I see no less than 10 additional changes that may be made when the 2011 regular season closes January 1, or even after the playoffs.

Maybe it’s just global warming, but here are the coaches skating on the thin ice that JDR, Haley, and Sparano have already broken through.

1. Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay)

Less than two months ago Morris wouldn’t even be on this list after a 4-2 start, and that after seemingly turning the franchise around with a 10-6 mark in 2010. But a seven-game losing streak featuring some of the club’s worst football since the infamous 26-game losing streak of 1976-77 has Morris in deep trouble. The fact that he may had been too young to begin with when hired (still only 35) may be a migrating factor.

But incidents such as Morris ordering one of his players off the field a few weeks back and a possible off-field issue involving RB LeGarrette Blount (that would be nothing new) is not helping Raheem’s case.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: None, look for Morris to join the other two Florida-based coaches (Del Rio/Sparano) on the coaching unemployment line, was even surprised he didn’t join Del Rio/Haley this week.

2. Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis)

There is a new report that Caldwell will be gone if Colts go 0-16. Duh, he’s in trouble if the Colts by some miracle finish 3-13. The Colts were going to get a mulligan without Peyton Manning this year. If Indy were just respectable right now (say 5-8), there would be no discussion. But Blue Horseshoe has become historically bad, worse even than the teams from 1980 until the mid- to late-90s. Caldwell might be a good guy, but coaches simply don’t survive 0-13.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Caldewelll is done.

3. Norv Turner (San Diego)

Norv’s reign in the 6-1-9 is coming to a close, even if the team runs the table and finishes 9-7. After turning the Houston Texans into one of the league’s best defenses, Wade Phillips is being mentioned as a replacement. Phillips’ regular season coaching record (82-59) is surprisingly good, but a bad ending at all his spots. Also Wade would be the same type of coach with the same type of rep as Norv – a retread who’s a great coordinator, not as great as the man.

And the man before Norv with the Chargers?? Marty Schottenheimer just may resurface (again) in Kansas City.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Has about run his course.

4. Andy Reid (Philadelphia)

Obviously his career record has been exceptional, and Rex Ryan recently referred to Reid as a “Hall of Fame coach.” But the bar was set very high for the “Dream Team” this year, and 5-8 in the division obviously falls far short of that. This is likely a case of a coach who has taken a franchise about as far as he’s going to take it.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: I think the Bill Walsh 10-year burnout rule plays here. Look for the Eagles to make a change.

5. Pat Shurmur (Cleveland)

The Browns have been an awful mess for a while now, and it would seem Shurmur deserves more than one year. But there have been distractions such as the Peyton Hillis mess and now the Colt McCoy-concussion controversy. And team president Mike Holmgren is beginning to feel some heat as well. Holmgren this week was quoted as saying that Pat “will be here a long time.” Famous last words??

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Iffy, better than 50-50 he goes.

Pat Shurmur's chances of staying with Cleveland past this season are iffy.

* – Pat Shurmur photo credit: via Cleveland Browns.com

6. Mike Shanahan (Washington)

Actually the problems regarding DC football starts with owner Dan Snyder, who continues to swing for the fences with large contracts for star players and big-name hires on the coaching staff but with negative results. Remember how many said “who?” when Mike McCarthy was hired in Green Bay?? And how many free agents did the Packers sign in the off-season?? Maybe instead of throwing more bad money after bad money, Snyder ought to take a cue of following that template.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Snyder probably dismisses Shanny, only to search for yet another quick fix (big name college coach??).

7. Steve Spagnuolo (St. Louis)

Here’s another team that was on the rise in 2010 that has regressed to the point that the HC finds himself on the hot seat. QB Sam Bradford has played hurt the past several weeks, and outside of RB Steven Jackson, there is little talent on offense period.

With a record of 15-62 (and that includes 7-9 last year), the team is in the midst of its worst stretch in franchise history (including L.A and Cleveland). And this has been accomplished in the weak NFL West.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: If Spags stays in 2012, he has to go 9-7 minimum.

8. Leslie Frazier (Minnesota)

Picking up the pieces from the Mike Tice and Brad Childress regimes, it figured that Frazier would be given time to rebuild the Vikings, especially known going in that Christian Ponder was going to have to develop sooner rather than later.

That said, 2-11 is not going to cut it. A lot of competition going on right now in the NFC North, but Frazier is going to have to find a way to tread water in 2012 — he does have prize pieces in Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Gets one more year, but has to at least be in neighborhood of .500.

9. Jason Garrett (Dallas)

Not like 7-6 is the end of the world, but it’s been the way the Cowboys have lost with catastrophic late-game collapses. Maybe Garrett’s to blame, maybe the make-up of QB Tony Romo is the blame. Good news is Dallas can still right the ship and win the NFC East and then make noise in the playoffs. Bad news is Felix Jones is the only RB on the roster left physically standing.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Unless Jerry Jones has a quick trigger, Garrett should get another year.

10. Tom Coughlin (Giants)

Yes, all four NFC East coaches made this list, which tells you the perennial expectations in these high-profile markets. It’s said that Coughlin may have saved his job with the Giants’ miraculous comeback in Dallas Sunday night.

My question is should his job security be shaky to begin with, considering a murderous schedule and the four-game losing streak maybe long forgotten with a division title/playoff run? The 2007 team finished the regular season giving the undefeated Patriots a run for their money in a 38-35 loss, then beat New England in the Super Bowl. The 2011 team recently lost to the Packers 38-35 – will they get a second chance at the Pack in the playoffs?

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Probably stays, but sealing the division with a Week 17 win over Dallas would be nice. At age 65, retirement would also not be out of the question.

So there are 10 more potential coaching changes on top of the three already made. And then factor in an off-the-board possibility like Bill Belichick doing like Tony LaRussa if the Patriots were to win it all, and a case like Mike Smith in Atlanta who endured a health scare last week.

That would be somewhere between 13-15 teams making changes at the top before the 2012 season begins. The final three weeks will determine how many changes actually come to fruition.

As the NFL season digresses, there will be more firings to come and many teams will  look to the college game for potential head coaches.  It didn’t take long for the rumors to begin about the next possible head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs being from college, as Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz was mentioned as a candidate to replace Todd Haley.  Kirk Ferentz will not be the only name tossed out there but other coaches from the college game will be floated around for NFL coaching jobs as well.

Because a coach has a lot of success in college does not always mean it will translate at the next level. More often than not former college coaches do not achieve greatness – or even just goodness – in the NFL.

* – Nick Saban photo credit: via The Palm Beach Post

Every team that hires a college coach is trying to capture the success of Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer from the nineties.  These two coaches went from coaching college to the NFL and won Super Bowls for the Dallas Cowboys.  Barry Switzer would be the last college-to-NFL coach to win a Super Bowl in 1995 for the Cowboys, and before that his predecessor Jimmy Johnson did the same thing, winning two.

Since then, many top notch college coaches have tried to carry their success from college to the NFL and have failed.  One coach that sticks out among this group is Bobby Petrino, who left Louisville to coach the Atlanta Falcons and quit before the NFL season ended.  Petrino stepped down in his first season as head coach in Atlanta after only 13 games and returned to coaching college football at Arkansas the following year.

Since the nineties, none of the college-to-NFL coaches could ever crack the code to becoming elite at the next level and most were quickly removed from their duties.  Many of these coaches were great in college yet mediocre in the NFL.  Here is a list of some of the top college coaches that have gone to the NFL and their records:

• Bobby Petrino Louisville – Atlanta Falcons (2007) 3-10
• Nick Saban LSU – Miami Dolphins (2005-06) 15-17
• Dennis Erickson Miami – Seahawks (1995-98), 49ers (2003-04) 40-56
• Steve Spurrier Florida – Washington Redskins (2002-03) 2-20
• Butch Davis Miami – Cleveland Browns (2001-05) 24-35
• Mike Riley Oregon – State San Diego Chargers (1999-2001) 14-34

None of the coaches on this list had a winning record in the NFL. All were forced to go back to coaching college football.

Bobby Petrino and Nick Saban have not skipped a beat since coming back to the college game. Both immediately got back to their winning ways from before they left for the NFL.  Petrino’s Arkansas Razorbacks have been ranked in the top 10 all season long and Saban is taking Alabama to the national championship game.  The Ol’ Ball Coach (Steve Spurrier) has also gotten back to becoming one of the top coaches in college football as he has turned the South Carolina program around after his short NFL career.

Currently Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll are the two former college coaches now in the NFL and trying to change the trend set by their peers in the past.  It is hard to tell if Harbaugh and Carroll will be elite coaches in the NFL because they have not been there long enough since being removed from college football to properly judge them. Both do seem to be off to a good start as Carroll went to playoffs in his first year and Harbaugh will be heading there this season.

It has been two decades since the last the college coach made the jump to the NFL and won a Super Bowl.  Any NFL team that wants to hire a college coach to lead their franchise had better think twice because history is not on their side when it comes to success.

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The Cleveland Browns entered the 2008 NFL season with greater expectations than at any other point in the franchise’s second life. After a 10-6 season last year, some bold offseason moves, and the expectation that an explosive offense would be even more explosive with a year of experience together, some fans were even talking about a darkhorse Super Bowl run in 2008.

Unfortunately, a Game 1 trashing at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys was a harbinger of the unrealized expectations that have come to define the Browns in 2008.

Nine games into the season, the Browns sit at 3-6. They are coming off back-to-back 4th quarter collapses in which they gave up double-digit leads at home. Derek Anderson has already been benched. Braylon Edwards can’t catch a cold. Kellen Winslow has been hospitalized and suspended. Joe Jurevicius it out for the season. Donte Stallworth can’t stay healthy. Wait…thank goodness for that last one. At least something has gone as expected this year.

The growing list of 2008 failures for the Cleveland Browns has led to whispers that have morphed into mega-phone shouts for a coaching change to happen sooner rather than later. Romeo Crennel received a contract extension in the offseason after the surprising 2007 success. Unfortunately, 2007 is starting to look more and more like the mirage, as opposed to the norm. Poor clock management, unimaginative play-calling, and a defense that was solidly bend-but-don’t-break but is now breaking, are all problems that get placed directly at the feet of the head coach.

And for many Browns supporters, the solution to everything that ails the Browns is one man: Bill Cowher.

Frustrated fans at Browns Backers meetings are throwing his name around more often. Unsubstantiated rumors have circulated around the Internet that Bill Cowher was buying a home in Strongsville, Ohio — much to delight of Browns fans. And one Browns supporter has purchased and set up www.cowher09.com to further implore the Browns to do whatever it takes to bring the former Steelers coach back to the AFC North.

No one can argue with the success that Bill Cowher had during his time with Pittsburgh. And it is hard to defend the current Browns coaching regime with what we have seen so far this year. I don’t know how seriously Bill Cowher wants to get back into coaching, and I wonder if Browns fans really want to submit themselves to the constant antagonizing from Steelers fans who will say that the Browns could only win when they brought in a Steeler. But I have to admit, thinking about Bill Cowher roaming the sidelines, fuming at the mouth, and showing emotion that has been seen on a Cleveland sideline since Marty Schottenheimer is a pretty exciting flight of fancy.

Will it happen? Who knows. But unless the Browns can pull of a miraculous turnaround for the ages and make the playoffs, the heat on Romeo Crennel will most likely be too much for him to overcome. And then the drumbeat for Bill Cowher will grow to deafening proportions throughout Central Ohio.

Could Bill Cowher be the man to overcome the curse and black cloud that has seemed to hang over the Browns franchise since returning to the NFL? It is impossible to argue that he isn’t more qualified than the coaches currently in place. And at the very least, as with the QB switch to Brady Quinn, the sight of Bill Cowher pacing the sidelines would at least give Browns fans renewed hope that perhaps their beloved team can be a consistent competitor again.

Any Browns fan knows that hope can be fleeting, and can often be replaced by the deflating thud of unrealized potential and unmet expectations. Too often during the Browns reincarnation this has been true. But the new Browns have always had first time head coaches without a winning pedigree. Bill Cowher would bring a resume of success and, it would seem, hope that could be trusted.

Are the dream of Bill Cowher the Brown just that — dreams? Or is it truly a possibility?

Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: when a fan base has more faith in an ex-coach from their hated rival who is currently on TV and not on the sidelines, as opposed to the current coach who recently got a contract extension, something is wrong and hope effectively gone.

Romeo Crennel has proven that he is a good man and a good, championship-level defensive coordinator. Bill Cowher has proven that he is a great, championship-level head coach. Even the most ardent Romeo Crennel-as-head-coach supporter (if there are any left) would have a hard time arguing with that.

As the drumbeat for Bill Cowher grows, only a few questions remain: will Browns’ management be able to argue with it; and will Cowher be able to resist a return to the smash-mouth division he loves so much? My gut feeling is that these questions may be rhetorical and that it’s only a matter of time and detail before the latest incarnation of renewed hope is present on the Browns sideline.

[tags]bill cowher, cleveland browns, nfl[/tags]