How could it?

In an absolute instant classic thriller, the 49ers defeated the favored Saints 36-32, dealing the deciding blow on a 14-yard, 3rd down touchdown pass from Alex Smith to Vernon Davis with 0:09 left on the clock.

It was the perfect way for the perfect football game to end.

Everything in sports, as in life, is relative.

In 1946, Army played Notre Dame in the “Game of the Century”.  The game ended in a scoreless tie. That was football then.

Fast forward 67 years and there are college football bowl games ending in 67-56 scores and multiple quarterbacks throwing for 5,000 yards in a season, with lovers of offense loving it and football “purists” abhorring it.

For people who love good defense but also appreciate prolific offense, it can be very difficult to find it on the same field at the same time.

But anyone who watched what unfolded in San Francisco today saw it.

You may think it’s impossible to say a 36-32 game featured great defense, but you had to have watched the game to appreciate it.

Until the 34-point 4th quarter, this was a 20-14 game that featured spectacular interceptions (Tarell Brown), superb pass-rushers (the Smiths Aldon and Justin), defensive backs getting well-timed sacks (Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins), running back-like INT returns (Dashon Goldson), run-stopping front sevens (both teams), punishing hits (Donte Whitner on Pierre Thomas), and one of the highest-octane offenses in NFL history being held to just a couple of big plays and only 14 points.

If you love defense, you had to love the first three quarters of this game. There were a few nice plays here and there (Drew Brees’ perfect pass to Marques Colston comes to mind), but for the most part the defenses ruled the day, with San Francisco benefiting from four first half turnovers by New Orleans, though not capitalizing nearly as much as they could have, in large part because Gregg Williams’ Saints D brought effective pressure and discombobulated the 49ers.

Then the 4th quarter started, and we saw a game a lot more like the one we’ve become used to: quarterbacks, pass catchers, and great runners taking over with big, timely play after big, timely play.

Frank Gore busted a 40+ yard run to set up a San Francisco field goal.

Darren Sproles, who had made many catches but been bottled up all day, exploded down the center of the field for a 44-yard touchdown pass.

Vernon Davis caught a long pass to put the 49ers right back in scoring position, which was followed by one of the gutsiest and most unexpected calls you’ll ever see on a key third down: San Francisco bootlegging Alex Smith to the left for an improbable 28-yard touchdown run.

That score put San Francisco up 29-24 with 2:11 to go. Everyone on Twitter was saying that the 49ers had scored too quickly. Little did they know that while they were in a sense correct, because New Orleans would score, it wouldn’t matter because San Francisco would score again.

Drew Brees threw another perfect pass to a well-covered Jimmy Graham that the absurdly athletic tight end grabbed and took to the house. Donte Whitner got caught between breaking it up and making the tackle, and he ended up doing neither.

With 1:37 left, the Saints led 32-29, and the game seemed over with so little time on the clock and the much-maligned Alex Smith under center.

And then…wow.

A couple of short completions got the 49ers near midfield, at which time Smith went back to the man who had come up big for him before: Davis. The 49ers tight end, freakishly athletic in his own right, got the ball well into Saints territory. All the 49ers had to do was position the ball for a field goal, tie it up, and take their chances in overtime.

Except that San Francisco has the ever-aggressive and confident Jim Harbaugh as its QB, so playing for overtime was not in the cards.

On 3rd down, with less than 20 seconds to go, the 49ers could have called a running play to center the ball, but they instead took one final shot at the end zone, and it worked out in spectacular fashion. Smith found Davis again for a catch over the middle, and Davis made the grab despite getting clocked by a Saints defender, a la Terrell Owens many years ago against Green Bay. (To complete the comparison, Davis was so overcome with emotion after the catch that he cried on the sideline.)

New Orleans would get one final play, but they were unable to perform any Music City Miracle, and San Francisco moved on to the NFC Championship Game.

My heart is racing again just typing this.

This was a game that, quite literally, had everything. There was great defense, great offense, a furious finish, and the stakes were high.

This game even featured a legendary quarterback in Brees going up against one of the most embattled QBs in NFL history, the former #1 overall pick Smith who has fought gargantuan and well-earned doubt from everyone, even from his own fan base, during this his greatest season by far as a professional.

And somehow, some way, Alex Smith outdueled the great Drew Brees in the 4th quarter.

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez via ESPN

Most people pick the Saints to win this game. Of those who did pick the 49ers to win, I bet not one thought San Francisco could win like this.

Just one more reason this was such an amazing athletic event: no one could have predicted the way that this game ended. No one.

Yes, Saints-49ers had it all, including the home underdog grabbing the victory – which always adds one extra layer of excitement to any game.

To everyone who watched this incredible game, I imagine you did a lot of nodding while reading this. To everyone who missed it, you missed one of the greatest games in NFL playoff history. (But don’t worry, they’ll be showing it forever wherever classic NFL games are shown.)

They don’t get much better than what we saw in San Francisco today.

It was, quite simply, the perfect football game.

The early discourse on this game seemed to favor the Saints, but as the week has gone on more and more of the highly-paid and exposed mainstream media types have been coming around on Patrick Willis and the Niners.

Here is all the basic info you need to know, what MSF’s writers have said about the game this week, and a poll so you can take your pick.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers Game Info

• Saints-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 14th at 4:30 ET on FOX
• Saints-49ers Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa
• Saints-49ers Point Spread: Saints -3.5
• Saints-49ers Over-Under: 47.5

From Sunday: 4 Reasons Why The Saints-49ers Outcome Is Not The Foregone Conclusion Many Seem To Think It Is

Jerod’s Saints-49ers Spread Pick

I wrote about this game yesterday after listening to the ESPN talking heads discuss the Saints as if their ticket to the NFC Title Game has already been punched. It hasn’t.

They have to play away from their precious dome against a team that is 7-1 in their home park and features the best defense in the league. This game is anything but a sure thing, and the spread – the closest of all four games – is indicative of that.

Last year, the Saints won 25-22 in San Francisco on a last second field goal. A lot of the players have changed, of course, but I think this game will be similar. It will be a close, competitive matchup that someone will win by a field goal. Give me San Fran with the home field advantage and the points.

• 49ers-Saints spread pick: 49ers +3.5

Suley’s Saints-49ers Prediction

Click to read Suley’s entire Saints-49ers Preview.

The Saints are 0-4 all-time in road playoff games and with a loss will match the Cincinnati Bengals for the worst road playoff record in NFL history. The 49ers are 18-8 in home playoff games in franchise history. With a win they will match the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders for the second-most home playoff victories.

The 49ers defense is one of the best in the world and of a class the Saints have not come across this season. The Saints will have more success than most teams against San Francisco, but it won’t be enough.

A healthy Frank Gore and a stingy defense will be the difference maker as the 49ers play their way to the NFC Championship.

• 49ers-Saints Prediction: San Francisco 27 | New Orleans 20

Saints-49ers Poll

Who do you think will win?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And don’t be shy. Defend your pick below in the comment section.

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The Divisional Round often produces the most compelling and memorable moments of the NFL Playoffs. Favorites carrying the weight of the world, or underdogs with nothing to lose and not getting enough respect even after being just one of eight teams out of 32 left.

Jerod offered his spread picks for each game earlier in the week. Now here are my predictions for each game.

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

• 4:30 PM ET, SATURDAY

The seemingly unstoppable Saints have become everyone’s trending darlings within the past month, and the favorites of many to win the next two weeks on the road and advance to Super Bowl 46.

Not so fast.

At home, in the Superdome, the Saints are indeed unstoppable. But how many games has New Orleans won in its franchise history. Try zero, thought it’s not like the Saints had not gotten many chances in the playoffs until the past few years.

The Saints will be as far away from their comfort zone as possible on Saturday against a 49ers team that allowed only 87 points at home all season. The city of New Orleans has always been regarded as an eerie and spooky place, but that holds nothing compared to a late afternoon at Candlestick. Wind, a few transformers blowing, the stadium going dark, or maybe the 50+ year old facility seemingly shaking.

Or maybe the Saints just get freaked out by the city of San Francisco itself, which Ari Kaufman refers to as ‘opulent, ostentatious, arrogant, and sheltered.’ What!!?? I like my BART system. My man Ari has become a Howard Cosell for a new generation.

New Orleans had to deal with this last year and saw their season end against a Seattle team they should had been far superior than. Not to mention they somehow lost to both lowly Tampa Bay and St. Louis on the road this year. This time the road task is much tougher; it’s the best defense of the league that has to be solved.

I do dock the Niners for lack of playoff experience (nine years, but seems even longer) and Frank Gore has to have a much better game than he did during the second half of the season. The O-line has to also stop the Saints’ blitz and keep Alex Smith upright, which was a challenge during a meltdown at Baltimore.

But I’m going to go with the home dog here…

PICK EM PAL!!! Saints-49ers Prediction: San Francisco 27 | New Orleans 24

DENVER (9-8) AT NEW ENGLAND (13-3)

• 8:00 PM ET, SATURDAY

The numerologists had a field day after last Sunday. Tim Tebow 316 yards, 31.6 yards per completion, a 31.6 TV rating during the fourth quarter. Big Ben picked on third and 16. It was a great day for those on the Tebow bandwagon.

But one is only as good as his last game, and Tebow right now remains a double-edged sword – and we’ve already seen Broncos v. Pats, and that was at Mile High. And as far as the Patriots are concerned, I love their road to the Super Bowl, especially since they don’t have to worry about the already-imploded New York Jets.

Maybe you have heard the tale of the man who puts $80 dollars on the #8 horse in the eighth race, then sees the horse finish eighth. Denver’s run comes crashing to a halt and the debate on whether Tebow can take it to the next level can rage until training camp in July.

PICK EM PAL!!!  Patriots-Broncos Prediction: New England 31 | Denver 6

HOUSTON (11-6) AT BALTIMORE (12-4)

• 1:00 PM ET, SUNDAY

The Houston Texans are still a team that most NFL followers are NOT familiar with.  Except for a late-season game on the NFL Network in which they lost, Greg Gumbel/Dan Dierdorf is about as good as it gets for this team getting run.

As was mentioned during the telecast of last week’s Wild Card game, the Texans have been built via the draft, especially this past year. J.J. Watt first round, Brooks Reid second round, and taking a QB named T.J. Yates in Round 5, which turned out in come in real handy. Pro Bowler Brian Cushing was a product of the 2009 draft. Even after losing Mario Williams and Matt Schaub during the season and WR Andre Johnson hobbled, the Texans have remained relevant.

Meanwhile I’m not sold on the Ravens, who I consider as the AFC version of the Atlanta Falcons. QB Joe Flacco is good, like Matt Ryan is ‘good’, but can he be OMG great?? And the team as a whole had too many games that had me guessing whether this is really an elite team and a title contender.

True, this is one of the last kicks of the can for Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, but there is always one result in the postseason that no one figures on and shocks everyone, I’m going to peg this game as one of those. As Bum Phillips said in the day, Houston will be ‘knocking on that door’ again after Arian Foster and Ben Tate grounds-and-pounds the Texans to the AFC Championship Game.

PICK EM PAL!! Texans-Ravens Prediction: Houston 23 | Baltimore 17

NY GIANTS (10-7) AT GREEN BAY (15-1)

• 4:30 PM, SUNDAY

We can talk X’s and O’s all day, but sometimes an off-the-field event ends up throwing all analysis off-kilter. Unfortunately that is the case this week, as Packers Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin is on an extended leave of absence following the tragic and sudden passing of his son. Needless to say, this has been a surreal week in the Packers organization leading up to a playoff game, with the situation rocking the franchise to its core. Even classy Giants HC Tom Coughlin reached out to offer his condolences to the Packers organization.

How this effects the Packers on the field Sunday is anyone’s guess, but no doubt this is a major distraction in a football sense.

Philbin is not expected to be with the team on Sunday, meaning HC Mike McCarthy has to put a contingency plan in place in regards to the offensive game plan. On the field, there are not a lot of players on either side that werearound four years ago when the Giants shocked Green Bay en route to an eventual NFL title.

What the Giants do have, however, is the very same Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs smash-mouth element, plus the receiving weapons that can put the shaky Packers secondary on it’s heels much like they did in the regular season meeting at the Meadowlands.

Yes, there are much more important things than football, but should the Packers lose don’t expect the team to use the events of this week as an excuse. In the end, I do expect Green Bay to pull one out for their grieving coach and get him back in the coaching booth next Sunday.

PICK EM PAL!!!  Packers-Giants Prediction: Green Bay 33, | NY Giants 27 (OT)

Despite Tebow 3:16, this is, without question, the most interesting playoff game for me this weekend. So let’s set the stage…

Image credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez via SFGate

New Orleans Saints

With a regular season record of 13-3, the Saints are one of the strongest three seeds in recent memory with a quarterback in the midst of possibly the greatest season in the history of the position.

Drew Brees, as you likely know, set the NFL record for passing yards this past season. Was that enough for him? Obviously not. Against the Detroit Lions he threw for 466 yards, the most ever in a regulation playoff game.

They have now won nine straight games; of those nine they have scored no less than 22 points, and last weekend’s 28 points allowed were the most they have given up over that span. However, their total defense on the season ranked 24th. New Orleans is, without question, an offensively-minded team.

The Saints are 0-4 all-time in road playoff games and with a loss will match the Cincinnati Bengals for the worst road playoff record in NFL history.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are back in the playoffs for the first time in nine years. Back in August, I can assure you no one expected the 49ers to have the phenomenal season they have had.

There have been several reasons for that success. Frank Gore rushed for over 1,000 yards again, David Akers set the NFL record for most field goals kicked (44), and Alex Smith has had a renaissance at the quarterback position.

Now I won’t blow sunshine up your arse and say Smith is an elite quarterback. In fact, he, T.J. Yates, and “The Mile High Messiah” round out the bottom of QBs remaining in the playoffs; but Smith is at least competent.

Despite all these success factors, San Francisco ranked just 26th in total yards this season. Yet the 49ers somehow went 13-3, and that is due to one major thing: their defense.

Patrick Willis has looked like the second coming of Ray Lewis this year; Aldon Smith, as a rookie, recorded an amazing 14 sacks; and the entire defense has thrived. The 49ers are especially dangerous at home where they have allowed, on average, less than 11 points a game.

The 49ers are 18-8 in home playoff games in franchise history. With a win they will match the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders for the second-most home playoff victories.

Saints-49ers Prediction

I don’t know if I could say anything as convincing as Jerod Morris posted about this game earlier in the week (which you can read here ). Luckily, I agree with him completely.

The 49ers defense is one of the best in the world and of a class the Saints have not come across this season. The Saints will have more success than most teams against San Francisco, but it won’t be enough.

A healthy Frank Gore and a stingy defense will be the difference maker as the 49ers play their way to the NFC Championship.

Pick: San Francisco 27 | New Orleans 20

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New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers Game Info

• Saints-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 14th at 4:30 ET on FOX
• Saints-49ers Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa
• Saints-49ers Point Spread: Saints -3.5
• Saints-49ers Over-Under: 47.5

(Side note: and if the battle-tested Giants win today, we may want to hold off on anointing the Packers too…)

I made the mistake of turning NFL Countdown on for background noise while I edited Brandon’s Charles Barkley SNL recap, and in between Tom Jackson’s hyperbole, the weird supposedly musical noises coming from Cris Carter, and Chris Berman’s grunt-speak, I was floored by just how simplistic and ignorant each of these so-called “experts” was sounding in discussing (if you can call it that) the Saints’ next game.

Keyshawn Johnson summed it up when he said, to paraphrase, “I don’t think the 49ers can score 28 points on the Saints’ defense, but the Saints can definitely put up 45 on the 49ers.”

Oh really, Keyshawn?

Well, just as you surely are capable of doing or saying something with an ounce of humility, I suppose highly unlikely events like the Saints putting up 45 on the great San Fran defense are, technically, possible. But you might want to do some actual research, actually take a look at some statistics, before spouting off such asinine nonsense.

Here are a few reasons 49ers fans should just chuckle to themselves confidently every time a media member starts discussing the Saints moving onto the NFC Championship Game as being inevitable.

Image source: Here

1. The Saints Are Magic At Home, But Mortal On The Road

If this game were in New Orleans, I’d jump right on the Saints bandwagon with everyone else. They are damn near unbeatable in the Superdome. The Saints are 9-0 at home this year, with victories by 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14, 29, 28, and 17.

So not only has no one beaten the Saints in New Orleans, but only one team has come within a touchdown of the Saints at home, the Texans back in Week 3. And three of those last four scores came against playoff teams.

But on the road, on typically slower surfaces without their rabid fans, the Saints have not been nearly as imposing.

The Saints lost three times on the road this year. One loss came against the Packers in Week 1, so there is no shame there. The other two losses came against Tampa Bay and St. Louis, so there is great shame there. While you can chalk those two terrible losses up to New Orleans just overlooking those two woeful teams, what’s to say they don’t overlook the 49ers too? They did it last year in the playoffs, and the Seahawks beastmoded them right back home.

Regardless of how Saints supporters will explain away those losses, and to be fair New Orleans has won its last three on the road and last nine overall, there is no question that the Drew Brees-led offense is far less potent on the road.

In nine home games this year, New Orleans has scored 374 points, 46.75 points per game. That is ridiculous. But in eight road games, New Orleans only scored 207 points, 25.88 points per game, and in none of those games did the Saints play the league’s #1 scoring defense, which resides in San Francisco.

Which leads me to important point #2:

2. The 49ers Are Also Magic At Home, Mortal On The Road

Why is no one talking about this?

Wait, let me rephrase that, because surely informed, insightful NFL analysts are somewhere. (Right?)

Why are none of the football buffoons shoved down our throats on Sunday morning talking about this?

Guess who else has been outstanding at home this year. That’s right: the San Francisco 49ers. No, San Fran is not undefeated at home, but they are 7-1 in Candlestick, winners of their last six, and the only game they lost was one in which they outplayed the Cowboys but allowed the game to get to overtime where they were done in by the immortal Jessie Holley.

Consider these eight numbers: 17, 24, 3, 10, 20, 7, 0, 3. These are the point totals San Francisco has given up at home this year. If you’re scoring at home, that’s 84 points in eight games, or 10.4 points per game. No, none of those teams featured an offense as great as the Saints, but that is canceled out by the point I’ve already made: that the Saints’ 21-point average decrease in scoring on the road did not include any games against teams with the defensive prowess of San Francisco.

As you might expect, the 49ers’ offense is also much better at home. Here are their offensive outputs at home this year: 33, 24, 48, 20, 27, 23, 26, 20. That’s 221 points at home, for a supposedly “bad”  offense. That equals out to 27.6 points per game. For perspective, check out how that compares to the Saints’ average output on the road. (It’s almost two full points higher.)

Am I saying that the 49ers will have the better offense next Sunday? No. These Saints are a remarkable unit with a great QB, a great architect, terrific skills players, and they are on a roll. But don’t expect the 45-point Saints on Sunday like Meshawn assumes.

If the Saints hit their road scoring average of 26 points, they will score more against the 49ers than anyone did in San Francisco all year. They are certainly capable, but as the numbers above prove, the 49ers are also capable of putting up points, especially against a defense that is far more generous than their own (21.2 points per game given up, on average; 24.5 in road games).

3. Who’s Got The A Psychological Edge Better Than The 49ers? No-BODY!

As soon as the Saints won last night, I fully expected the majority of the media and fans to give them a pass to the NFC Championship Game. Something tells that while Jim Harbaugh may seethe about this outwardly, he is probably ecstatic inside.

If the Lions had won, San Francisco would be facing the Giants-Falcons winner. The 49ers already beat the Giants at home, and the Falcons are not exactly an imposing playoff presence on the road. In either case, over-confidence combined with rust from the bye week could have been an issue for San Francisco.

Because New Orleans won, the 49ers get to face a team they surely won’t take lightly, and they will do so with the us-against-the-world, nobody-believes-in-us mentality that is so often a part of the formula for upsets in big games (for those of you who would consider this an upset). If you don’t think Jim Harbaugh will play this particular motivational card to perfection, you haven’t been following the 49ers this year.

Example: The 49ers absolutely were shat on by the NFL schedule-makers this year. They played five games in the Eastern time zone this season, once having to do it in back-to-back weeks and another time have to do it on a short week (Thanksgiving). This has typically been a nightmare scenario for west coast teams, especially when the games are early starts as four of these games were.

Yet San Francisco went 4-1 in these five games. Why? Because Jim Harbaugh is proving himself as a master motivator and prescient manager of his football team.

The first two of these games came in succession in Weeks 3 and 4, so Harbaugh had the team stay in Ohio in between games. The trip not only served as a bonding experience for the team, but also a tremendous confidence builder. Harbaugh played it perfectly.

Why should we expect anything different from him this week? Harbaugh has pushed all the right buttons this year, and he’s got an easy one to push this week. It’s not often that a talented, confident 13-3 team coming off a first round bye and playing at home can play the no-on-believes-in-us card. San Fran can, and it will help to ensure razor-sharp focus and winning energy, especially early in this game.

4. San Fran Ain’t Afraid Of No Saints

Sure, the 49ers’ defensive coaches will likely have insomnia this week as they break down film of the Saints’ offense; but the players only have to converse with the ghosts of 2010 to realize that they’ve got the Saints right where they want them.

Image credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez via SFGate.com

Last season, in Week 2, the Saints beat the 49ers 25-22 in Candlestick. Remember, this was in the midst of the 49ers terrible 0-5 start to the season. The 49ers tied it at 22-22 late, but Drew Brees engineered a quick, efficient drive to set up the game-winning field goal.

A few interesting stats from that game:

• San Fran outgained the Saints 417-287
• Drew Brees was about as good as he could be (28-38, 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) and the Saints still needed a last second field goal to win
• San Fran lost the turnover battle 4-0…this year, no team has a better turnover margin than the 49ers

What does this result from last year mean? Not a whole hell of a lot, as 16 months have passed since it happened, and Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles have made the Saints infinitely more dangerous now than they were then. But, a lot of the current 49ers played prominent roles in that game, and walked away from it thinking they gave the game away. It suggests that San Francisco will respect the Saints without fearing them, which is the perfect mindset to have heading into a playoff game.

Conclusion

With all of the above said, I’m not ready to pick this game yet. That will come later in the week. But I am certainly not giving the Saints an automatic pass to the next round like so many other NFL analysts seem willing to do. It’s just lazy, ignorant, prisoner-of-the-moment “analysis” that the four points above highlight.

We’ll have to wait until next Saturday afternoon to see what the ultimate outcome is, but in the meantime don’t listen to the talking heads. This game is far from a foregone conclusion. In fact, it just may be the best game of the Divisional Round.

It should be a shootout this time around, as both quarterbacks threw for over 5,000 yards this season.

Detroit Lions

The Lions come in at 10-6, and 5-3 on the road. They finished the season 5-6 after their 5-0 start, but they comfortably secured a playoff spot. They could have been the five seed, but their defense was torched by Matt Flynn and the majority of the Packers in Week 17.

Matt Stafford had a historically great season, passing for over 5,000 yards and 41 toucdowns. He has the benefit of throwing to Calvin Johnson aka “MegaTron”, who hauled in 16 touchdowns this season.

The Lions will have two options in today’s game. One will be to try and establish the run game early and control the ball. The Saints have the 12th ranked rush defense, which could make this tough. The other option is to come out firing, being very aggressive in the pass game. There is no doubt that New Orleans will score early and often, so the Lions will have to match the intensity. If Stafford can not turn the ball over, there is no reason why this game cannot come down to the wire.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions will have Ndamukong Suh, who did not play in the last meeting against the Saints. He provides a presence up front that provides pressure, but it is tough to just use pressure on Brees. He is great at getting the ball out of his hands quickly, and finding the open man. The Lions secondary will have to step up and play their best game of the year.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints come in at 13-3, and 8-0 at home. They could have been the #2 seed if they had beaten weak teams in Tampa Bay and St. Louis, but they could not. Either way, they come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in football.

Drew Brees and the Saints are winners of eight straight, in which they have scored no less than 22 in a game, and given up no more than 24 in a game. In their last two games against Atlanta and Carolina, they outscored those two teams 90-33.

The defense of New Orleans is ranked 30th in passing, but that is partially attributed to the fact that they are taking it easy at the end of games when they have big leads. It is the same reason why the Patriots and Packers are at the bottom of the defensive rankings. As long as the defense can hold the Lions under 28 points, the offense can easily outscore them.

Saints-Lions Prediction

The Saints had a very disappointing exit last season in Seattle, but I do not see the Saints being upset once again. They are at their home stadium this time, and with the acquisition of Darren Sproles, along with the breakout season by Jimmy Graham, there is no reason why they should not win this game.

Prediction: Saints 34 | Lions 24

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Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

• Lions-Saints Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 7th at 8:00 on NBC
• Lions-Saints Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
• Lions-Saints Point Spread: Saints -10.5
• Lions-Saints Over-Under: 58.5

It’s a tweet from Jeff Duncan of the Times-Picayune in New Orleans quoting New Orleans Saints’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams:

“I have guys that couldn’t catch a cold butt naked in a rain storm right now.”  Now that’s funny. Also a very disturbing visual.

You know what else is funny? The picture below of Williams drinking a canned beverage with copious amounts of beads draped around his neck. I wonder he got those…

Image source: FlickRiver (click for a great picture of Drew Brees)

Before we as sports fans switch our focus to other items like March Madness or the Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight that I will keep assuming will happen, we get 11 more games that make up the annual NFL playoffs. These 660 minutes will re-write, or at very least alter, the season’s script to which many think they already know the ending.

The Packers repeating as Super Bowl champions was once treated like a given...but should they even be considered the favorites anymore?

Remember, last season at this time, the Green Bay Packers were a #6 seed that only made the playoffs because the New York Giants practically handed them the last spot.

So, with that in mind, I thought I would give you some insights to, depending on your objectives, make some money during playoff season or simply sound smart around the water cooler.

I have put together 10 predictions and things that you should look for during the playoffs. I guarantee at least three or four of them will be right.

#10: The NFL Wanted Parity, They Got Mediocrity.

It is great for ratings that everyone’s favorite team has a chance to compete, if not one year, then certainly the next. Ever since St. Louis and a former Hy-Vee bag boy came from nowhere to win the Super Bowl just over a decade ago, we have had a revolving door for the most part.

The problem with this is that the quality at the top of the league is watered down, and the opportunity for epic battles between the titans is low, because there are no titans. Every team has major flaws.

So, the bad news is that the overall level of play may be lower in the playoffs than 20+ years ago, but the good news is that the results are more unpredictable.

#9: To Play Touch Football or To Risk Death.

This one really has nothing to do with the playoffs, but the National Football League has a conundrum.

The league continues to come down with harsher penalties for hard and high and low and late hits. The problem is they continue to take aggression out of a game that is by design violent. On the flip side, if they don’t, with players as big and strong as they are today, there will be the first death on the field since Warren Beatty in Heaven Can Wait.

I really an not sure what the league can do about this, but this issue, with on-field injuries combined with the lasting effects of concussions, will haunt this league for a long, long time.

#8: Every Once in a While, It Sucks to be Vegas.

Detroit is playing at New Orleans. The two quarterbacks in this game have combined for three of the five seasons of 5,000 yards passing in NFL history. Both defenses give up points, and Detroit’s even scores some.

Vegas opened the total of this game at 58.5, higher than any total (previous high was 57 in 2009 when the Saints battled that Hy Vee bag boy and the Cardinals), but probably not high enough to keep 80% of the action from going on the over.

Is there any way Drew Brees scores less than 38? Will Stafford score less than 28? And Vegas can’t even get bad weather indoors….

#7: Tim Tebow is the Worst Starting Playoff QB in last 10 Years, and That Includes Trent Dilfer.

Tim Tebow is a fantastic human being. He is a wonderful leader of men. He was a tremendous college quarterback. But, let’s face it, now that the league has figured out the Denver gimmicks, Tebow is not a quality starting quarterback in the NFL.

In his last three games, Tebow is 30-73 (41%, ouch), with 1 TD and 4 INT’s. And he has lost multiple fumbles as well. The best thing that can possibly happen this week to Denver is that Tebow and crew get shut out, so that John Elway can do what he knows is the right thing: find the franchise quarterback of the future.

#6: The 49ers Have the Formula to Win It All, If It Were 1986.

The 49ers run the ball very effectively with Frank Gore, control the ball with Alex Smith making few mistakes, and play great defense. That was a great formula before teams started scoring 500+ points a season.

As great as their defense is, the teams they will face in the NFC will get their points, and Jim Harbaugh’s team will just not be able to keep up.

#5: When Was the Last Time Two Rookie QB’s Started Against Each Other in a Playoff Game?

Houston has waited FOREVER to get to the playoffs, and now that they are here, their hopes rest on the shoulders of rookie 5^th round draft choice T.J. Yates. Yates has come a long way since beating out Greg Paulus’ brother for the starting job in Chapel Hill a few years back.

The Texans will try to rely on a great one-two running attack of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The problem is that the Bengals have a top 5 rush defense.

I am not sure that Andy Dalton and his weapons have enough experience to take advantage of this opportunity on the road, but one thing I look for is the anti-Lions/Saints, with a final score like you might find after the 1^st quarter in New Orleans.

#4: Watch Out For the New York (Football) Giants.

Admittedly, the Giants only got into the playoffs because the Eagles did not realize the season had started until 75% of it had been completed. But this team is for real and can beat anyone.

Eli Manning has taken his level of play up significantly this year, and on the defensive side of the ball, with Umenyiora back with Tuck and JPP, they have enough pass rush to hide their deficiencies in their thin secondary.

If they get by the Falcons this weekend, watch for a monumental upset the following weekend, because….

#3: Green Bay Will Not Win the Super Bowl.

Green Bay has had a spectacular season. But they, better than anyone after their run last season, understand that the Super Bowl is not always won by the best team of the season, but the team that is playing the best at the end.

Green Bay will get a boost if they get Greg Jennings back for the playoff push, but as you look at the competition, other teams are just playing better right now.

#2: Will the Patriots Win a Playoff Game?

It has been four long years since David Tyree made the LAST catch of his illustrious career and kept the Patriots from a perfect 19-0 season by winning Super Bowl XLII. The Patriots have not won a playoff game since.

While they went 13-3 this season, do not be surprised if that playoff futility continues after their bye week.

The Patriots defense is awful, so bad that they have used receivers as starters in their secondary multiple times this season. As great as Tom Brady is, if they run into a well-rounded team, they will have a difficult time advancing, even with the friendly Foxborough crowd locked in throughout the AFC playoffs.

#1: New Orleans Will Beat Baltimore in Indianapolis.

First, I thought Pittsburgh would get to the big game, but I have switched to Baltimore because they are healthier than Pittsburgh heading into the playoffs, especially with news that Rashard Mendenhall may be out.

But these are the two teams that will wade through the kiddie pool and get to swim in the deep end. And in the end, Drew Brees and company will have just enough to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the second time.

And then, we will be less than 6 months away from training camps!

Last night, Brees broke the single-season passing yardage record that was held by favorite football player of all-time, Dan Marino, yet I found myself happy for him – hell, I was pretty much rooting for him.

Then I watched Brees’ postgame speech after the game, and I was reminded, yet again, why Brees is impossible to dislike.

Hat tip to @AmandaRykoff for posting this on Facebook.

How perfect is that? And he’s not just being falsely humble for the cameras. Not only does he believe, but he’s right.

You think Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or even Tony Romo wouldn’t have the record if they played for the Saints as currently constructed? They probably would. Do you think Brees would have the record if he had ended up in Miami many years ago? Probably not.

Season-long records like these are absolutely team achievements, and leave it to Brees to go all the way to the ball boys as he gave credit where it was most certainly due.

I won’t belabor this next point because I’ve made it time and again in previous articles, but it’s worth mentioning one more time:

Drew Brees is absolutely, positively everything an athlete should be.

He’s everything a leader should be.

So despite the taint of black and gold that he’ll never escape (at least for me), Brees is still one of my favorite football players. Like Patrick Willis, like Tim Tebow, like Nnamdi Asomugua, he’s the kind of guy you point to and tell young athletes to emulate, because he is the quintessential example of what someone who is a professional sportsman should be.

Congratulations Drew Brees. You are truly deserving of every great achievement you attain during your career.

Watch the New Orleans Saints (11-3) host the Atlanta Falcons (9-5) to wrap up the last of the Christmas weekend games, and hopefully the holiday lights will not surge all the electrical power from the Superdome like last week at Candlestick Park in San Francisco.

Note that the Saints have secured a spot in the playoffs while the Falcons are still fighting for a Wild Card position. (Click to see the complete NFL playoff scenarios: AFC | NFC)

Let’s take a look at your Monday night entertainment.

The Falcons

The last time Atlanta met the Saints in week 9, they put a pretty good fight falling just three points short of a win. One might blame penalties on the outcome of the last game as the Falcons had 10 penalties for a total of 85 yards.

However, Matt Ryan, errr Matty Ice, is ready to make his mark at the Superdome and take down the Saints on their home turf.

The offense currently ranks 9th in the league for passing yards with 255.8 yards per game. Ryan has 3,698 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also has the help of running back Michael Turner (1,129 yds, 4.1 yds/att, 9 touchdowns) and wide receivers Roddy White (1,100 yds, 12.9 yds/rec, 8 touchdowns), Tony Gonzalez (826 yds, 11.2 yds/rec, 7 touchdowns), and Julio Jones (755 yds, 18 yds/rec, 5 touchdowns).

When the Falcons first met the Saints earlier this season, things were a little shaky on the offensive line. Left tackle Will Svitek was making his third start of the year and Joe Hawley was making his second pro start at right guard. The Falcons have improved their pass protection since that game. They have given up 26 sacks, ranking them 9th in the league, but they have given up 74 quarterback hits, ranking them 26th in the league.

The Falcons defense will have the real challenge against Drew Brees’ arm and the stellar Saints offense. While the Falcons have held their opponents to only 96.6 rushing yards per game, making them fourth in the league, they are not as effective at stopping the passing game (17th in the league with 230.6 yards), which is the Saints ultimate scoring weapon.

Getting the pressure on Brees early in the game will be key to keeping the Saints within the Falcons grasp. Defensive end John Abraham leads the team with 8.5 sacks, and outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon has contributed 4 sacks to the team total of 30.

The Saints

Leading the NFC South, this Saints team is on fire, especially their exceptional offense. Quarterback Drew Brees continues to burn defenses and wow the crowds throwing for 4,780 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

The Saints offense is second in the league for points scored (32.1 per game) and leads the league in passing yards with 331.4 yards per game. With receivers like Jimmy Graham (1,171 yds, 13.5 yds/rec, 9 td), Marques Colston (917 yds, 13.9 yds/rec, 5 td), and Lance Moore (574 yds, 11.5 yds/rec, 8 td), they definitely give Brees a hand in lighting up the field.

If Atlanta has a shot at beating the Saints, it’s because the Saints’ defense is not at the same level as their offense. New Orleans has allowed 256.1 passing yards per game (ranking them 28th in the league) and given up 21.9 points per game (16th in the league).

On November 13th, the Saints easily dominated a majority of the game until the end, when the defense allowed Atlanta to march 85 yards in 1:55 and kick a 27-yard field goal to tie it up. Strong safety Roman Harper and defensive end Will Smith have led New Orleans in sacks for the team (Harper with 7.5 and Smith with 6.5).

My Saints-Falcons Prediction

My initial gut was to go with the Saints, hands down, but I don’t think it’s going to be a blow out for them. Atlanta has shown lots of improvement since they beginning of the season, and they even held the Saints to only a three point win last time they met. With the team eager to give itself a chance to win the NFC South crown, there is no holding back for this Atlanta team.

But…

Drew Brees and his offense are on fire. End of story. While the Saints defense may struggle, the Falcons defense is not strong enough to hold back the power of the Saints offense, especially on their home turf.

Final Score: New Orleans Saints: 35 | Atlanta Falcons: 28

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

• Falcons-Saints Date: Monday, December 26 at 8:30 PM on ESPN
• Falcons-Saints Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Falcons-Saints Point Spread: Saints -6.5
• Falcons-Saints Over-Under Odds: 53

Image source: iSportsWeb

Here is a rundown of the NFC playoff scenarios. (Click here to see the AFC playoff scenarios.)

NFC Playoff Scenarios

Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants

This one is pretty easy.

The Cowboys and Giants play Sunday night. Whichever team wins becomes the NFC East champion and will get a first round home game. Neither team can make the playoffs any other way.

Image credit: Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News via Wyld About Pro Football

Green Bay Packers

This one is also pretty easy. The 14-1 Packers clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with their win over the Bears last night.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers clinched the NFC West a while ago, so they will host a first round home game at a minimum. They are still alive for a first round bye as well, and in fact are in the driver’s seat.

The 49ers are 12-3, and the Saints already have three losses. Because the 49ers own the tic-breaker with the Saints, all San Fran has to do is beat woeful St. Louis next week to clinch the first round bye and #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. (Or, if New Orleans loses tonight to Atlanta, the 49ers don’t even have to beat St. Louis next week.)

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a clinched a playoff spot, but they are playing for a lot more than just a chance at the #2 seed when they face Atlanta tonight.

New Orleans hasn’t even yet clinched the NFC South division, nor a first round home game. They can do that tonight if they beat Atlanta. Even if the Saints don’t beat Atlanta tonight, they would still clinch the NFC South and a first round home game by winning their Week 17 game against Carolina or if Atlanta were to lose its Week 17 game to Tampa Bay.

If the Saints win both this week and next week, and San Francisco falls to St. Louis next week, the Saints would lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, a first round bye, and a second round home game.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons clinched at least a wild berth last night when Chicago lost to Green Bay. If they beat the Saints tonight, the Falcons maintain a shot at the NFC South title and a first round home game. As mentioned above, Atlanta would need to defeat the Bucs (should be easy) and New Orleans would need to lose to Carolina (not so easy).

Detroit Lions

The Lions clinched a playoff spot with their win over San Diego in Week 16. Because they play in the NFC North with Green Bay, they do not have a shot at anything more than a wild card road game in round one of the playoffs, regardless of what happens in Week 17. All that is still to be determined is who they will play.

NFC Playoff Predictions

Here is how I think the pivotal Week 17 games will go:

• Saints beat Atlanta (Week 16)
• Saints beat Carolina
• Atlanta beats Tampa Bay
• San Francisco beats St. Louis
• Giants beat Cowboys
• Lions beat Packers

This would create the following first round playoff matchups:

• Byes: Packers (14-2), 49ers (13-3)
• #3 Saints (13-3) v #6 Falcons (10-6)
• #4 Giants (9-7) v #5 Lions (11-5)

What do you think will happen? Comment below.

Mike McQueary provided some disturbing but important (and damning) testimony about Jerry Sandusky; the Sam Hurd drug saga continued to unfold; and Adrian Peterson explained one of his motivations for returning to the field.

Mike McQueary Testimony

It is disturbing to read about the testimony from Penn St. assistant Mike McQueary today and what he saw in the shower with Jerry Sandusky and a “10-12 year old” boy.

Some of the testimony from McQueary:

• McQueary says he has “no question” he witnessed a sexual act between Sandusky and a kid, and he conveyed that to Paterno.
• McQueary said he can’t say he is 100 percent sure there was sexual intercourse but that’s what he believes was happening.
• McQueary:”They were in a very sexually oriented position…”
• John McQueary (Father) said when Mike called, he heard fear in Mike’s voice and thought he had been injured.
• McQueary said he didn’t contact police because “of delicate nature. I tried to use my best judgement … I was sure act was over.”
• “I told them what I had seen … Was extremely sexual in nature, over the lines…”
• McQueary: “I know they saw me. They looked directly in my eyes.”
• McQueary also said he has never confronted Sandusky about the incident since.

This testimony from McQueary is extremely damaging to the defense of Sandusky. It’s also sickening to read and absorb as a human being.

The defense will look to contradict McQueary’s testimony here and ultimately in the Sandusky trial, using not only a contradictory email to a friend about whether he “stopped” the rape of the boy or not and hammering McQueary’s personal character.

It will be difficult for Sandusky and his defense team to counter the details and accuracy of Mike McQueary’s story, provided in such graphic and disturbing detail.

The Sam Hurd Drug Saga

In other troubling sports news, the incredulous and sad story of Chicago Bears WR Sam Hurd and his drug dealings have added an additional and burdensome straw on the entire back of the Chicago Bears organization. With a season that has plummeted south, this may be the backbreaker for their season and perhaps for GM Jerry Angelo’s future.

This was no small drug purchase either. Hurd allegedly said to the informant that he wanted to purchase “five to 10 kilograms of cocaine and 1,000 pounds of marijuana per week for distribution in the Chicago area,” according to the complaint. How’s that for your every day NFL Chicago Bears role model?

This story will only grow more difficult for the Bears and the NFL as additional details emerge. Hope Hurd enjoyed his dinner at Morton’s Steakhouse Wednesday; it may be his last good meal for some time.

NFL News Nuggets

Adrian Peterson Looking Out For Fantasy Owners

From disturbing to some much needed humor from the NFL of all places, specifically Adrian Peterson commenting about his status for Sunday’s Vikings game vs. New Orleans. Via the Star Tribute, All Day said he will play despite only being at 85% healed from his sprained left ankle.

“It’s very important, especially for my fantasy team owners,” Peterson joked. “They’ve been giving me a hard time on Twitter.” Love it AD!

All kidding aside, I know at least two Peterson owners who lost last week in their respective fantasy football playoffs.

Packers’ Plans

Look for the Packers to play Aaron Rodgers until the game is in hand, which may be early in the 3rd quarter vs. the offensively challenged Kansas City Chiefs. Matt Flynn will step in and continue the assault, preserving Green Bay’s undefeated season.

Will Ben Play?

The Saints and 49ers are tied for the #2 seed in the NFC conference with the tiebreaker currently in favor of San Francisco. Thus, the Saints and their fans are hoping Ben Roethlisberger and his severely sprained ankle will recover before the Monday night showdown at Candlestick.

Without Big Ben, veteran Charlie Batch will try and lead the Steelers to a win. It will be a huge break for the 49ers if Roethlisberger cannot play in their quest for the #2 seed, which means a bye and home field in the divisional round playoff.

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* – Mike McQueary photo credit: AP via KIMATV.com

So let’s all be happy that NBC decided to use its flex option.

Detroit Lions

The news surrounding the Lions this week has been about Ndamukong Suh, and his two game suspension for stomping the arm of the Green Bay’s Evan Dietrich-Smith. Suh claimed it was an accident, which shows his lack of understanding for the severity of the situation. To compound his problems, he was in a single car accident Friday night in Portland, as he drove his car into a tree.

For the Lions as a team, things have not been going well since their 5-0 start. Since then they are 2-4, and they have not scored 20 points in any of their losses.

The Lions are currently 7-4 and just one spot out of the playoffs in the NFC behind the Falcons and Bears by way of a tiebreaker. Winning the division is out of the question, as the Packers are about to clinch the NFC North, so the Lions need to get back to their early-season winning ways in order to compete for a wild card and avoid wasting this promising season.

The Lions need to try and establish their run game in order to take some of the pressure off of Matt Stafford, who has thrown nine interceptions in his last three games, including three on Thanksgiving.

Kevin Smith seemed to be the spark the Lions needed after losing Jahvid Best, but Smith left last week’s game with a knee injury, but is expected to give it a go tonight.  The other option is Maurice Morris, who has been average at best this year.

Suh’s absence will definitely have an impact, and will only helped the Saints first ranked pass offense, and eighth ranked run offense. It will be interesting to see how the Lions’ defense responds without him in the lineup.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming off a 49-24 win over the Giants, which gave them their third win in a row. They have a record of 8-3 and are the third seed in the NFC, but are only one game behind the second place 49ers.

They currently have a one game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South, but they still have one game left against Atlanta. A win against the Lions would keep them on pace to get a bye in the playoffs, and also win the NFC South.

Drew Brees is having another outstanding year, and is the main reason for the Saints’ success. He leads the league in passing yards (3,689), completions (323), and yards/game (335).

Brees has also been helped out by his new favorite target, Jimmy Graham, who has 8 touchdown catches this season. The Lions have the sixth ranked pass defense, but the Graham should be able to dunk the ball over the goalpost at least once tonight.

Lions-Saints Prediction: Lions 24 – Saints 35

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Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints Game Info

• Lions-Saints Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, December 4th at 8:20 ET on NBC
• Lions-Saints Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Lions-Saints Point Spread: Saints -9
• Lions-Saints Over-Under: 54

The Saints lead the NFC South with a record of 7-3, while the Giants trail the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East with a record of 6-4.

Since their bye week in week 7, the Giants have lost two of the four games and need to win this one to keep the pressure on the Cowboys. With the Saints coming off a bye week and playing at home, they are going to be tough to beat.

The Giants

Eli Manning has some pressure on him to keep his team’s head above water.

It’s hard to figure this rollercoaster team. The Giants beat the Philadelphia Eagles big in Philadelphia, yet they couldn’t seal the deal at home. The Giants were beaten at home by the now 4-7 Seattle Seahawks, but then took down New England on the Patriots’ home turf.

The Giants need to find some consistency if they want a shot at the playoffs and division champs.

The Giants’ offense is ranked 13th in overall in yards in the league, 4th for pass yards and near rock bottom at 31st for rushing yards. Relying on a pass-heavy offense works well when you are confident in your receivers, but the Giants have dealt with near-constant health issues a the position. However, new star receiver Victor Cruz continues to establish a solid relationship with Manning as he draws closer to his 1,000-yard receiving mark.

Where the Giants have really struggled is with their running game. With running back Ahmad Bradshaw suffering from a fractured foot, the team’s rushing options are limited. After Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, who has also been dealing with an injury, leads the Giants with a total of 274 yards rushing with 3 yards per attempt. This is not the type of running game the Giants can rely on to win the game.

The Giants’ defense is less than impressive giving up 239.9 passing and 121.5 rushing yards per game. This is not the kind of weakness you want to have when facing Drew Brees and his arm in the Superdome.

The Saints

Drew Brees leads the New Orleans Saints’ killer offense that ranks first in the league for total yards per game and passing yards per game. Brees has a passer rating of 101.3 with a 70.9 completion percentage. With three strong receivers (Jimmy Graham, 873 yds, 6 TD; Marques Colston, 589 yds, 3 TD; Darren Sproles, 448 yds, 3 TD), these guys could have it easy against a Giants defense that has given up plenty of yards.

The Saints running game seems to have similar weaknesses to the Giants running game. The Saints are at least ranked 14th in rushing yards per game though at 117.5 average yards per game. Running back Mark Ingram only has 340 yards in 90 carries, averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

Taking a look at the Saints’ defense, they have also given up plenty of yards to their opponents. The defense has allowed other teams to pass for an average of 239.9 yards per game and rush for an average of 121.5 yards per game. Since the Giants don’t have a strong running game to begin with, most of the focus will be on shutting down the pass.

My Saints-Giants MNF Prediction

These two teams are very similar. Both have similar weaknesses on offense and defense. The winner will be determined by which defense can get pressure on the quarterback and break them. However, neither Eli Manning or Drew Brees will be easy to crack.

Overall, the Saints have the advantage.

Brees and his offense have shown more power, impact, and consistency than the Giants. Brees has more options to work with on offense, with at least three top receivers who can help throw off the defense. Manning will need to count on a solid performance from the defense to slow down Brees’ passing game and keep he and the Giants on the field the longest. That could be asking a lot from a defense that gives up almost 240 passing yards per game.

Plus with the game at the Superdome, the Giants have a lot to overcome mentally if they are going to win this match.

Final Score

New Orleans Saints 35 |  New York Giants 31

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New York Giants at New Orleans Saints Game Info:

• Giants-Saints Date: Monday, November 28th
• Giants-Saints Time: 8:30 ET
• Giants-Saints TV: ESPN
• Giants-Saints Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Giants-Saints Point Spread: Saints -7.5
• Giants-Saints Over-Under: 51

In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.

What do I mean?

Well, not only do you have to keep track of all of your players -  every rookie, waiver wire guy, and breakout performer on both your regular teams and weekly fantasy football teams – but you also have to be able to forget about the past and the future.

Who cares if Fred Jackson was bad last week…how will he do THIS week?

I know LeGarrette Blount’s prognosis for the rest of the year looks bleak…but can he give me one more week of solid production?

Most importantly, you have to remember that nobody can be perfect; and no matter how much you know, sometimes the athletes just have bad days.  (Yes, Jerod…I’m talking to you.  I will take my Tim Tebow, Fred Jackson, and Julio Jones predictions with me on my way to a big time network.)

[Editor's note: FINE! GO! I presciently told some people to sit Vincent Jackson and DeMarco Murray with very solid reasoning last week...you think I'm worried about losing YOU and your successful picks? HA!]

In all seriousness though, making predictions is quite hard…especially when you know it’s impossible to hit every pick out of the park.  Fortunately, I was on the money last week, nailing almost 75% of my picks.

Once again, I have to thank Verizon for helping me get there.

As you know, Verizon has hooked me up with a pretty sweet deal.  As part of our agreement, they have given me a Droid Bionic, equipped with NFL Mobile.  No matter where I am, I have instant access (on unbelievable 4G LTE speeds) to every fantasy player on my team.

Once again, I can’t talk about this enough.  Every time a new piece of technology comes out, we all ask ourselves the same question: “Is this REALLY going to be worth it?”  Sometimes, the new creation is called the iPad…and it revolutionizes everything.  Other times, it’s the iPad 2…where a company basically changed a device’s color, put a sticker, and made you waste $600.  When I heard about 4G speeds, I didn’t think twice about it.  I figured it was all a scam, and a waste of money.  Boy was I wrong.  Every time I watch my wife pull out her old-school Blackberry, and simply try to pull up google, I laugh at her.  Then, I get annoyed.  In a world full of impatient people, 4G speeds have made me a happier person.

Anyways, Verizon has helped me to stay current, and even better they have offered the MSF readers something spectacular:

Let me just repeat that again to make sure you noticed:

Verizon is offering YOU something AWESOME.  

One lucky MSF fantasy reader will get TWO free tickets to this weekend’s Colts/Jaguars game in Lucas Oil Stadium. All you need to do is comment on the bottom of this page in order to enter.

Yes, it’s as easy as asking a start/sit question about your fantasy team, which you probably were going to do anyway.

Just be sure to tag your comment with #indy so we know you can actually go to the game if you win.

Scroll to the bottom for more details, but believe me you won’t want to miss this crazy awesome opportunity.

As always, we begin this week’s post with a quick recap of last week’s picks.  (And also, don’t forget: the Raiders and Chargers play this Thursday Night, so make sure you set your rosters now!)

Last Week’s Picks: 16 for 22 (73 %)

• Hits: Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Nate Washington, NE Wide Receivers, Jake Ballard, and Scott Chandler
• Misses: LeGarrette Blount, Beanie Wells, Roy Helu, Plaxico Burress (by a half-yard), Dustin Keller, and Vernon Davis.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Quarterback

Start Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Dallas)

Is Dallas’ defense better this year?  Yes.

Has it regressed in recent weeks?  Yes.

Is their passing defense still below average?  Yes.

Is Fitzpatrick coming off of a rough week and ready to showcase his Harvard pedigree?  Who knows.  I think he is.  And I think that he’s a must-start this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 10 projection: 290 yards, 3 TDs.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Mark Sanchez – Not that he’s good…but New England’s pass defense is BAD.
• Philip Rivers – Very favorable matchup against a reeling Oakland defense.  Hey, you would be reeling too if your coach just traded TWO #1 draft picks for Carson Palmer.
• Tony Romo – He’s been pretty good at home this year, and Buffalo’s pass defense is atrocious.

Sit Em QB: Jay Cutler (v Detroit)

I actually REALLY like Jay Cutler.

I think he’s a really good quarterback, and he’s incredibly underrated for reasons that are completely unrelated to his actual play on the field.  Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been, let’s just say…below average this year.  And in Week Ten, he will be matched up against the Detroit defensive line that is coming off a bye.

Yikes.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 10 projection: 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  8 sacks.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Andy Dalton – He’s good…but Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better.
• Eli Manning – As I’m sure Jerod will note, San Francisco MIGHT have the best defense in the league…Eli might not be ELI-TE this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but I don’t want to take him out for Valentine’s Day dinner, get down on one knee, and give him a ring…as you seem to want to do. Fitzpatrick has actually thrown 3 TD passes in a game twice this year, but both came in the first two weeks of the season. The league has caught up to Buffalo since them. Fitzpatrick is a solid start at QB, but hold off the Washburnian marriage proposals.

I’m fine with sitting Cutler against Detroit. The Lions’ D-Line is at least 5X better and tougher than the Eagles’, so I can see this game going much, much differently.

As for Eli struggling against the 49ers, yes I think it will be tough for him. Still, I think Eli is a borderline top-10 QB this week because the way to beat San Fran is through the air – you do not run on them – and frankly, Eli deserves as much respect as any non-Aaron Rodgers QB in the league this year. So sit him at your peril.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Running Back

Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams (v Tennessee)

Coming off a bye, Williams will be fresher than he’s been all year.  He’s also playing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the run.  With an increased emphasis on stopping Cam Newton, I expect the Panthers to respond by pounding it out on the ground just like old times.

I actually like Jonathan Stewart this week as well, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to have a big game.

DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 10 projection: 140 total yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• All starters in the Kansas City/Denver game
• Michael Turner – Atlanta really likes to pound the ball on the ground against the Saints in order to try and control the clock.  Expect Turner to have a great game.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best (at Chicago)

He’s a little banged up, and he’s been slipping a lot lately.  The fact is, if not for a few lucky home run plays the last few games he played, Best has been a huge disappointment.  Plus, he only has 3 TOTAL TDs this season – even with Megatron’s unbelievable dominance and all.

I don’t trust Best against Chicago this week at all, even if he somehow plays.  Expect the Lions to throw it…a lot…and be successful.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 10 projection: 45 total yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• Knowshon Moreno – HE’S NOT GOOD!!!
• Patriots’ RBs – The Jets will make NE completely one-dimensional this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Loyal MSF fantasy readers, I cannot in good faith endorse DeAngelo Williams as a start in all but the most desperate of circumstances. Just know if you start him that DAW has had one – one – useful fantasy week all season (Week 5 v New Orleans…thanks to one big run). So trust Washburn at your own peril on this one.

As for Jahvid Best, well I can’t let this go without some lampooning, now can I? Jon, you realize you’re telling us all to sit a guy that is widely expected not to start anyway, right?

Best is dealing with yet another concussion, a problem he’s had since college. It’s sad, because he’s a talented player, but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to reach his potential because of injury.

Regardless, Best is a guy to consider dropping, not just sitting, so don’t give Washburn any bonus points next week if he correctly predicted a fantasy football invalid to be worthless.

And finally…sit Knowshon Moreno??? Really? Was that before or after Willis McGahee almost single-handedly spurred the Broncos to victory last week while Moreno had 8 total yards?

Come on Jon. You’re better than these picks; and I only feel comfortable honestly calling you out because I know our readers like you and respect you and will demand more from you.

Besides, honesty and candidness is the MSF way.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Wide Receiver

Start Em WR: Steve Breaston (Denver)

He’s quietly having a solid season, and Denver’s pass defense is very mediocre.

Look for Champ Bailey to cover Dwayne Bowe all day, and look for Breaston to run wild in the process.  This isn’t to say that Bailey will shut down Bowe; actually, I’m trying to point out that a mildly washed up Champ Bailey is Denver’s BEST defensive back, which is good news for KC WRs.

Steve Breaston fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Ten:

• Josh Cribbs – He is having a randomly solid season as well…and he should put up some nice numbers against St. Louis.
• Pierre Garcon – This week might be Indy’s best chance for a W all season.  Look for “the waiter” to have a solid day against Jacksonville.

Sit Em WR: Deion Branch (@ NY Jets)

At this point, if you are still starting New England wide eeceivers not named Wes Welker, you are DEFINITELY not staying current.  However, just in case, don’t start Deion Branch.

Darrelle Revis does NOT do a great job of defending the slot, so he will probably be matched up with Branch all day.  I shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 10 projection: No catches

Jerod’s thoughts:

I guess we don’t get any other potential sit ‘em WRs this week? Geez Jon; I know you’re distraught about the NBA lockout, but there is no reason to take it out on our loyal fantasy football readers.

Here you go folks…here are a few normally startable WRs that you may want to think twice about:

• AJ Green and the Bengals finally face a good defense, the Steelers. Be wary. The last elite defense Cincy faced was when San Fran shut Green down to the tune of 4 catches for 29 yards.
• You know I like Brandon Lloyd for the balance of the season, but I could see him struggling a bit this week in a low-scoring affair against Cleveland in which Joe Haden will surely be draped all over him.
• Mike Williams has six catches in each of his last three games for Tampa Bay, but he’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch over his last four. Last year’s TD machine isn’t producing TDs, and while I continue to profess patience with him, I’d be okay with you placing the burden of proof on him.

As for Jon’s picks, I think Breaston is a solid option at WR this week, and Deion Branch is a weekly wild card; but with Tom Brady and New England’s offense struggling, I too would sit Branch against the Jets and Revis.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (@ San Francisco)

San Francisco’s defense is VERY good, especially at shutting down opposing running games. Ballard should get a lot of touches in Week Ten as Eli will probably have to throw but still be under pressure much more than he was this past week. Plus, he is gaining trust with Big Play Ballard by the week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Ten:

• Brandon Pettigrew – Chicago has a rough time defending TEs.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark (Jacksonville)

May he Rest In Peace.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Hmm…well since Dallas Clark reportedly has a “significant leg injury” I suppose that’s a pretty good Sit ‘Em pick, though I hope you won’t take credit for that as a “hit” next week.

As for Ballard, I continue to like him, so I endorse that start ‘em pick, and I think Brandon Pettigrew could have success against the Bears like Brent Celek did last week.

As for the potential misses in Week 10, I continue to look at Jermichael Finley with skepticism because he just isn’t that involved in the Packers’ offense. He wouldn’t be in my top 12 TEs for this week, and I think you’d be well within your right to place a “prove it” tag on him.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Defenses

[Editor's note: the rest of this post is written by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: Miami Dolphins (v Washington)

The Dolphins have played better than their record, and their defense showed a lot in last week’s drubbing of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn’t a great team this year, but they can be explosive on offense. The Dolphins wouldn’t let them. This week they face a John Beck-led offense that could do nothing more than dump off to the running back last week against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins fantasy Football Week 10 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 or more turnovers

Other Start em D/ST units for Week 10:

• I know that Philly’s D has let you down this year, but against John Skelton and the Cardinals it could be very worthwhile to start them this week.
• The Detroit Lions get to face the porous Bears’ O-Line. Please tell me you aren’t fooled by the Eagles going sackless against them Monday night; the Bears O-Line remains not very good.

Sit Em Defense: Cincinnati Bengals (v Pittsburgh)

I just have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to exact revenge on Cincy for Sunday night’s loss to Baltimore. I think a major part of it is that I don’t totally trust the Bengals’ D yet. They are good, but are they great?

Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown can take full advantage of a good-but-not-great D, and I have a feeling that is what will happen here.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

• Houston’s D has been great this year, but I just have a feeling they will underperform your expectations against a desperate Tampa Bay team in Tampa.
• Stay away from the Saints’ and Falcons’ defenses in Week 10. I would not be surprised if 70+ points are scored in that game.

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There are your start em, sit em picks for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. You know the drill from here. Read ‘em, digest ‘em, and then ask about ‘em. The comment section awaits your lineup-specific questions below.

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