While no one can ever replace Gus, there is one clear way that the folks at CBS and Turner Sports can rise and fire a shot in the arm of their NCAA Tournament coverage for this year and into the future: sign up Dan Dakich as a color commentator.

More on Dakich and what would make him an immediate upgrade in a second. First, a very quick requiem for Gus.

I know it seems incomprehensible. No Gus Johnson during March Madness? HOW CAN THIS BE?

Well, Richard Deitsch of SI.com broke it down last May when it happened. The two sides could not agree on a deal, so Gus became part of the Fox Sports. While I like that this makes him a featured voice on the Big Ten Network, I would gladly trade regular season Gus for March Gus.

But the purpose of this post is not to spend and inordinate amount of time dwelling on depressing thoughts like March Madness without Gus Johnson. So let me have one good cry and let’s move on.

Why Dan Dakich?

So…why Dan Dakich, you may ask? If you are asking that question, you clearly have never heard Dakich call a game.

While there are sure to be dissenters out there, and I welcome your feedback in the comment section, I rarely hear any negative comments about Dakich’s work from fans of either team during a game he’s calling or from neutral observers. What makes this especially interesting is that the majority of the games I watch that feature Dakich on the mic are Indiana games.

In case you don’t know, Dakich played at Indiana, he coached at Indiana under Bob Knight for a number of years, and he even bridged the short and tumultuous gap between He Who Shall Not Be Named and Tom Crean. You might think, then, that his calls would be somewhat biased. I’ve never found that to be the case, nor have I ever seen a fan of an Indiana opponent criticize Dakich for being a homer.

You may be thinking: great Jerod, that’s really wonderful you jackwagon, but since when does “He’s not a homer” qualify someone to be an announcer for the NCAA Tournament?

Image credit: InsideTheHall.com

Because it speaks to Dakich’s #1 and #2 qualifications: he’s honest and he’s candid.

I have no doubt that Dakich is loving seeing IU’s return to national prominence this year, and he isn’t shy about sharing anecdotes from his IU tenure as a player or coach. But he takes his role in the media seriously, like his daily radio show in Indy, and there are no “sacred cows” with Dakich. He will criticize an IU player, or Tom Crean, when a situation calls for it, and he will laud someone from IU when the situation calls for it. He’ll do the same for their opponents.

Usually, he’s spot on.

Furthermore, Dakich knows people, and he knows things. And he relays these things to the viewer.

On more than one occasion, I’ve thought myself, “I wonder if Dakich should really be saying this on TV?” in regards to an anecdote he’ll give about something that happened at a team’s practice or other “insider” info that typically isn’t given during broadcasts. And these insider stories don’t always shine positive light on their subject. They do, however, shine honest light on their subject, and they provide viewers with a more well-rounded and contextualized understanding of the game they are watching.

Contrast this with someone like Dickie V who, God love him, has made it his personal crusade to protect every coach and spout almost nothing but plaudits and platitudes that we can all see coming from 10 miles away. I sometimes feel like if you gave me a Dick Vitale sound board, I could fill in for him and no one would notice.

But Vitale isn’t an NCAA Tournament announcer, so comparing Dakich to him is pointless. I do so only to highlight the value of having Dakich’s voice on the college basketball beat now. It’s refreshing. It’s informative. It’s compelling.

And Dakich has been around the block a few times too. He played college basketball. He’s coached it. He’s experienced good times, bad times, weird times. Most importantly, he’s smart about the game, and he’s very adept at explaining things that happen concisely and cogently. This is a must-have for a good color commentator, and Dakich has it.

And now he needs to make its way into March Madness.

Who Would Dakich Replace?

Even without Gus Johnson, there are a number of voices and personalities to look forward to come March. Bill Raftery is and will always be ONIONS! Jay Bilas* gets better every year, and he has gone from someone who annoyed me to someone whose perspective I now actively seek out. Marv Albert and Steve Kerr are a terrific tandem that did a much better job calling college games than I figured they would. Clark Kellogg has an entertaining style and genuine love for college hoops that I enjoy, even if Jim Nantz’s work has really started to become an annoyance to me. Dan Bonner seems solid.

But Len Elmore? Jim Spanarkel? Bob Wenzel? REGGIE MILLER?

Elmore is okay, I guess, and I may be short-changing Spanarkel and Wenzel (please comment below if I am) but neither one has ever differentiated himself for me. Reggie Miller’s awfulness goes without saying, even though I want to say it anyway because he’s so awful.

Please someone give me a good reason why Dan Dakich would not be an upgrade over any of those four guys? Frankly, I’d take Dakich over almost anyone currently slated to provide color analysis for the NCAA Tournament, but I don’t expect you to be quite as excited about it as I am. So let’s just reduce the argument to the worst and/or least respected/anticipated/differentiated voices (however you want to describe them) of March. Why shouldn’t Dakich, whose done games on ESPN for a number of years now to raise his profile and prove his skill, be calling the season’s most important games instead of those guys?

In case you’re thinking but he’s at ESPN, how could he work for CBS and Turner Sports too? So is Bilas. So is Raftery. So is Bonner. A lot of guys affiliated with the Worldwide Leader still call games during March. So could Dakich.

And he should.

Update: As @AwfulAnnouncing reminded me on Twitter, Bilas didn’t do Tourney games last year. Crap. First no Bilas, now no Gus. We need Dakich more than ever!

A New ‘Movement’

In conclusion, with admittedly no idea of the logistics that would be necessary to actually make this happen, I am calling on all college basketball fans who want to make March Madness better to join me in a movement (not to be confused with The Movement) to bring Dan Dakich into our basketball loving homes during the greatest basketball month of the year.

This movement should probably start with making sure that Dakich wants call March Madness games – but why wouldn’t he? Tweet him and ask him. He’s one of the cool media folks who interacts with fans on Twitter. (He’s also just generally a good basketball follow, so follow him too.)

Next, we have to get media influencers like @RichardDeitsch, @AwfulAnnouncing, and @Fangsbites on board. These guys can help ideas like this spread and gain traction.

And then, it’s up to the folks at CBS to make it worth Dakich’s while. Conveniently, CBS Sports seems to have an active Twitter account that could be used for this purpose. The CBS Sports website also has a feedback form with one of the categories being “Comments about CBS TV.” There is also one for “Complaints” so I guess that one could used as well.

Let’s make this happen people. I promise you it will make March better; and with no Gus to excite us, we might as well have an intelligent, experienced, personable college hoops junkie like Dan Dakich to both entertain and inform us. It’ll make us all smarter, happier basketball fans.

Dakich, we’ve got your back bro.

Image source: Indy.com

Editor’s note: I wrote the post below on March 20th, soon after Butler defeated Pittsburgh to advance to the Sweet 16. I am bringing it back to the front of the site because the questions about Brad Stevens’ future have only intensified since that win, with Butler now sitting on the precipice of the most unlikely NCAA title of all-time.

Since I wrote this, many other posts have come out parroting these points – with some doing this extremely well and adding further insight, like Dan Wetzel today. For those wondering why Brad Stevens would eschew more money and seemingly “bigger” jobs to remain at Butler, this post explains it.

As soon as the final buzzer sounded to officially conclude Butler’s thrilling victory over Pittsburgh (or wait – was that a whistle!?) it was inevitable: the talk of Brad Stevens leaving Indy for seemingly greener coaching pastures.

For example, I tweeted (only half-jokingly) that I was going to add a category to my bracket predictions for next year that awards a point “if your coach is Brad Stevens.” Immediately I received this response from Twitter user @EricJDoll: “So Tennessee gets an automatic bonus point?” I responded that there is no way Stevens will be in Knoxville next year and that the Tennessee job isn’t nearly as good a job as the Butler gig that Stevens already has. @EricJDoll responded: “I hope he stays at Butler, but somebody is going to throw A LOT of money at him this summer.”

And he’s right. There is absolutely no hotter coaching name than Brad Stevens, and a number of high profile schools would probably fire their current coach if they knew they could bring in Stevens. So any big conference team in a BCS conference would gladly throw buckets of money at Stevens to lure him away from Indy. But it ain’t happening.

In this post, I’m going to outline a number of reasons that those buckets of money will not and should not matter. Brad Stevens is going to be a ‘Dawg for a long, long time.

Reason #1: Mid-Major coaches no longer need to coach a big conference school for career validation

It used to be that if a coach was successful at a mid-major program, he had to eventually jump to a big conference school to prove that he could hang with the big boys. Not anymore.

Look at what Mark Few has done at Gonzaga. Though he has yet to reach a Final 4, the Zags are no longer considered the little Tournament underdog that could. They are a legit basketball program that can recruit top 100 talent and has one of the longest NCAA Tournament appearance streaks in the nation. Yes, Few needs to reach the Tourney’s final weekend to fill the one hole in his resume, but whether he does it at Gonzaga or a BCS school is irrelevant – actually, scratch that; it is relevant. It will mean more and be an even greater credit to Few if and when he does it at Gonzaga.

The parallels between Few and Stevens should be obvious. Both men took over mid-major programs that had been built to a point of a consistent winning, and they have taken them to the next level. Despite annual overtures from the big boys, Few has never left. So if Stevens stays at Butler, it won’t be unprecedented.

Look at a guy like Steve Fisher. He made three title game appearances at Michigan, but still lacked respect upon leaving. Only now, after building a mid-major like San Diego State up from the ground floor, is Fisher getting the respect he deserves as a very good coach. Yes, times are indeed different in college basketball.

Reason #2: Location, Location, Location

The smartest, most team-oriented high school basketball players in America can be found in Indiana. Bar none. End of discussion. You’re welcome to debate this with me if you want to – and I’ll readily admit that I’m biased, having grown up in Indiana – but I promise I will outlast you in said debate. So choose such a battle wisely.

Butler, located in the heart of Indianapolis, is perfectly situated to capitalize on the deep annual crop of high school basketball talent in the Hoosier state. Once Indiana and Purdue have their pick of the litter – and let’s face it, that will almost always be the case – Butler will be able to round up the best of the rest.

In recent seasons, the “best of the rest” has included names like Gordon Hayward, Matt Howard, and Andrew Smith. Howard was a top 100, 4-star recruit. Hayward and Smith were 3-star recruits. All three were obviously huge parts of Butler’s ascendance to national prominence over the last two years, and guys like that – smart, skilled basketball players with size and savvy – will always be available right in Stevens’ own backyard as long as he is as Butler.

And just to the south of Indiana is Kentucky, another state that produces terrific high school basketball talent annually. This is where Stevens plucked a 3-star recruit named Shelvin Mack from. Again, once Kentucky and Louisville get the supposed cream of the crop, Stevens can go after the best of the rest.

Just between the second tier of recruits in Indiana and Kentucky, you can build a successful basketball program. Stevens has already proven it, and there is no reason to think it will change moving forward.

Reason #3: Brad Stevens’ coaching philosophy is the perfect fit for Butler

This reason piggybacks on #2. Despite being in the running for 2011 recruit Cody Zeller, the coveted big man chose Indiana – which has won fewer than 10 Big Ten games over the past three seasons. If Stevens couldn’t beat the Hoosiers for a blue chipper after last season’s run to the title game, he’s never going to. This is why, as I said above, Butler will build its program on the 3-star and an occasional 4-star players that IU, Purdue, and even Notre Dame pass up.

And you know what? I bet that is exactly how Stevens likes it.

Watch Butler play and their team-oriented style immediately jumps out at you. Sure, a guy like Shelvin Mack can pop for 30+ points on a given night, and talents like Gordon Hayward can do enough to showcase themselves that they become top 10 draft picks, but the Bulldogs truly play a “no I in team” style. This is why the Bulldogs can beat teams with more individual talent.

The sum of the Bulldogs is always greater than the individual parts, and that is a direct reflection of Stevens. The more you read about him, the more he starts to sound Bellichickian in how he studies the statistical tendencies of his opponents and introduces unique wrinkles based on matchups. To do this effectively, he needs team-first players with high basketball IQs who have no agenda other than winning. You do not often find all three attributes in players at the top of recruiting lists.

If Stevens were to jump to a big school, however, he would be expected to win the recruiting season as well as the basketball season. I’m not so sure that would be a formula for success. John Calipari’s team-building strategy works for him, but I don’t think it would work for Stevens, and vice versa. This why Cal is a perfect fit and Kentucky and Stevens is a perfect fit at Butler.

Reason #4: There is nothing to indicate Stevens is anything but 100% satisfied at Butler

This is a point that I’m not sure many people realize on a national scale. I think a lot of people around the country see this young coach from an obscure school (relatively speaking) making big waves in March and just assume that he must be pining to coach in the Big Ten or the Big East. Yet, I’ve never read nor heard anything that has given me any indication that Stevens is even considering leaving Butler.

Oh, and did I mention that he recently signed a contract extension through the 2021-22 season? (That’s not a typo.) Now, you may say that college coaching contracts are not usually worth the paper they are printed on; and you’d be right. Usually. But this is one of those times where I actually think it is worth much more than that.

A word you often see close to Stevens’ name in article written about him, and in quotes attributed to him, is loyalty. Stevens left a nice job at Eli Lilly to take a chance at coaching, and Butler gave him an opportunity. He worked his way up the ladder and was given the chance to lead an already successful program when he had never had any other head coaching experience. By all accounts, it would be hard for Stevens to turn his back on the school that gave him the opportunity to be where he is today.

Plus, Stevens has an athletic director in Barry Collier who is a former basketball coach and clearly committed to the long-term interests of Butler basketball. Heck, Collier is the one who put the Bulldogs back on the map before being succeeded by Thad Matta, then Todd Lickliter, and then Stevens.

In addition, Stevens really seems to appreciate the history of Butler basketball and the gem that is Hinkle Fieldhouse. He has talked about being able to use the unique attributes of Butler as a recruiting tool. This pride in what makes Butler special is why Stevens can and does succeed there. He believes it. That kind of love and leadership from the head coach is important for the direction of a program.

Add this to the three reasons above, which explain why Stevens does not need to leave Butler to win consistently and validate himself as a coach, and it becomes pretty clear that it would take one hell of an offer to pull him away from Indy.

And speaking of one hell of an offer, which Stevens could surely get…

Reason #5: Stevens may be that rare breed where it really isn’t all about the money

I am sure that Stevens could command in the $1.5-$2 million range from a big school looking to hire the hot young name. His current contract at Butler pays him $750,000 per year. I don’t think it’s arguable that he could make more money elsewhere.

But does he care? Who knows.

I don’t know Stevens nor can I get inside his head. But I do know that he has shown he will eschew money (his Eli Lilly job) to do what he is passionate about (get into coaching). I think it’s pretty clear that he is passionate about Butler basketball, so I think it’s fair to question whether even a blank check could get him to move he and his family (wife and two young daughters) elsewhere.

Stevens grew up in Zionsville, went to college at DePauw, and married a girl he met in college. Listen to one interview with him and you can tell that he is a modest, humble, quiet guy who is perfectly at home nestled in the heart of the Hoosier State. Most college basketball coaches are loud, big-ego, fame-seeking types who often see job status and salary as another scorecard on which they can compete. I don’t say this to denigrate them – it’s part of the drive that makes them successful. I just don’t think Stevens fits such a bill, so judging him the way other coaches are judged, and trying to predict his future thusly, is not appropriate.

Reason #6: The one job Stevens may want isn’t open right now, and probably won’t be for a while

Here is the caveat with everything above: all bets are off if the Indiana job comes open.

Stevens has never specifically addressed the IU job, at least not that I’ve heard, but all of the discussion, rumor, and innuendo that I’ve heard suggests that he would certainly be interested if the opportunity ever presented itself. Like me, Stevens grew up going to IU games in the 80s and early 90s – when Bob Knight was still at his zenith as a god-like figure roaming the sidelines – and let me tell you from experience that it’s hard, maybe even impossible, to get that out of your blood once it seeps in.

Again, I’m not in Stevens’ head and I don’t know him. Nor do I know anyone who knows him, so I’m not trying to put forth anything here that isn’t 4th or 5th hand message board-type discussion. All I know is that people seem to think the Indiana job would appeal to him, and it makes sense to me. When Tom Crean was asked why he took the job, his response was, famously, “It’s Indiana.” Despite the Hoosiers’ recent downturn, most coaches in America would still be intrigued by it. It’s Indiana. So maybe that’s one job Stevens would leave Butler for down the road.

But the key there is: down the road.

I know that it’s easy to criticize Tom Crean for three straight years of sub-.500 basketball and February collapses. No one is more frustrated or disappointed than I am. But here is the reality:

• Finally, Crean will have a veteran team next year.
• The Big Ten loses a ton of experienced talent this year. Indiana will be better in comparison simply because it does not lose anyone other than Jeremiah Rivers.
• Top-15 recruit and McDonald’s All American Cody Zeller will be in Cream & Crimson next year, giving the Hoosiers a true low-post threat that they have lacked since D.J. White graduated. This immediately makes everyone on the current roster better.
• The 2012 recruiting class already includes three top-70 players, plus another big man, and another blue chipper could be added to the list.

So, whether Crean can actually coach the Xs and Os and or not, and whether he can develop players or not (and the jury is still out on both), the Hoosiers will show improvement over the next few seasons. If Indiana doesn’t become a Tournament team again by 2012 at the latest, it will either mean that a comet crashed into Bloomington while school was in session or that Crean really cannot coach. Some people might say that he can’t, but I say that you don’t compete in the Big East like he did for years at Marquette without having some ability beyond being able to recruit.

My apologies if this detour into Indiana basketball has bored you. I say all of this only to explain why I think Tom Crean will be a fixture in Bloomington for many, many years to come. Even if he continues to bungle player development and in-game Xs and Os and substitution patterns, the Hoosers will be talented enough to win 20+ games per season.

So…the one job that I think Stevens would consider is not going to be on the table. Hence, he stays at Butler for the foreseeable future.

Put two and two and two together, and you get these six reasons why Brad Stevens is the perfect fit to be Butler’s basketball coach and why he won’t be leaving anytime soon. And as someone who now proudly claims Butler as a team I root for on an annual basis come March, and who loves to see Indiana teams and Indiana kids succeed, let me just say that this makes me extremely happy.

So rest easy Butler fans. Brad Stevens is going to be a Bulldog for a long, long time…exactly as he should be.

**********

What do you think? Will Brad Stevens be at Butler for the foreseeable future? Do you disagree with any of my reasons above? Discuss below.

* – BTW, whoever put together Stevens’ Wikipedia page did an awesome job. Kudos.

We didn’t win, but but either Kelly or Nicole will be named the National Champion Morganette in all the land, so congratulations to those two lovely ladies. (As of 9:00 this morning, Nicole was winning 68%-32%, so it looks like she’ll be the winner.)

Update: Nope! Kelly won. Congrats to her and Joshua Estrin of Examiner and Celeb Buzz.

Hmm, I wonder how one would go about celebrating a Captain Morgan-sponsored event championship? Hopefully responsibly, at least.

So, while the Captain Morgan BracketMaster Challenge may be over, we still have that little matter about the NCAA Division I Men’s National Championship to be decided later tonight between the Butler Bulldogs and Connecticut Huskies.

As strange to me as that still reads, it should really be one helluva game, with all the storylines, intrigue and, you know, good basketball players one could hope for in a national title game. Personally, I’m just hoping for headlines that use something without the phrase “Butler Did It,” should they in fact do it. I might be asking for too much.

That, and we have “One Shining Moment” to look forward to post-game. I don’t care; I get goosebumps every time. The ball is tipped…

Finally, below is the list of blogs who, like us, participated in the Captain Morgan BracketMaster Challenge. Feel free to stop by and say hello to them. Enjoy the National Championship game tonight. Responsibly, of course.

In the second Final 4 game, Connecticut led most of the way and held on for a close victory late. Kentucky had a shot for a three on their final possession, but they missed. UConn grabbed the rebound and held on for the victory.

Monday night, the 8th seeded Butler Bulldogs will face the 3rd seeded Connecticut Huskies to determine the 2011 national championship. It’s David versus Goliath, and it’s going to be one hell of a game.

Butler-UConn National Championship Game Info

• Butler – Connecticut Date: Monday, April 4th
• Butler – Connecticut Tip Time: 9:18 ET
• Butler – Connecticut TV: CBS
• Butler – Connecticut Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg, and Steve Kerr
• Butler – Connecticut Point Spread: Connecticut -3.5
• Butler – Connecticut Over-Under: 129

Butler-Connecticut National Championship Game Statistical Breakdown

Butler-Connecticut National Championship Game Prediction

One our college basketball-obsessed writers will have a more complete analysis and prediction for this game later tonight or tomorrow. Until then, we want to know what you think:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

What a great game this should be. Check back. We’ll have plenty of opinions on this one coming soon.

Update: Jon has posted his Butler-UConn analysis and prediction. Here is a quick taste:

As someone who has picked Butler in every single game of the entire tournament, what I’m about to write might not surprise you.

Regardless, don’t gloss over this fact: my heart wants to pick Butler…but so does my head.

Now, I understand that Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps, Dick Vitale, and Hubert Davis all picked UConn. In fact, the only person I have heard pick Butler is Doug Gottlieb…not exactly the person you want endorsing your team.

However, I have heard various forms of the same argument come out of every talking head’s mouth: “Kemba Walker is a winner, and he won’t let UConn lose.”

With all due respect to the Kemba, (believe me, I love watching the Revolutionary Iverson ball it up every night) that statement is a slap in the face to guys like Matt Howard, Ronald Nored, Shawn Vanzant, and Shelvin Mack.

But that’s ok. Butler has made a living off of proving the doubters wrong. The 2011 NCAA Championship Game will be no different.

Butler-Connecticut Analysis and Prediction

 

Blue bloods Kentucky and Connecticut are one side of the Final 4 bracket. On the other side? Well, that’s where things get monstrously F’d up.

8th-seeded Butler, tournament champion of the Horizon League, faces 11th seeded Virginia Commonwealth, tournament runner-up of the Colonial Athletic Association. And no, that is not a typo, despite the Kansas, Purdue, Pittsburgh, and Florida fans that you see wiping their eyes in disbelief.

Well surely no one could have had a Butler, VCU, Connecticut, Kentucky Final 4…right? Wrong. Someone got it right.

Allow me to introduce you to the most genius idiot in the history of sports prognosticating.

Behold, the insane brilliance of “jspearlman” (1st overall on ESPN):

He/she had Kentucky, UCONN, Butler, and VCU in the Final 4. Only problem? He/she has VCU winning it all, as you can see below. That could hurt if VCU can’t keep defeating the odds, but I’m just amazed that they could pick this ridiculous Final 4 correctly.

Update: Actually, apparently two people got it right! Feel free to drop a link to the other big winner in the comment section.

jspearlman – With Kentucky in Final Four:

Also, it should be noted that “SgtSnugg1es” (3rd overall on ESPN before the UK-UNC game ended) was pretty damn close too. Just not as close as jspearlman.

I imagine there might be other perfect Final 4 brackets out there, but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that there aren’t. This is a remarkably unrealistic Final 4 because of the addition of VCU. They were not expected to make the tournament and had to play in the First Four. Many people, like me, pretty much considered their chances moot even if they found a way to beat USC.

Boy were we wrong.

What is amusing to me about the jspearlman bracket that is currently ranked #1 in ESPN’s Bracket Challenge is that he had Louisville in the Elite 8. I thought I was hot stuff when Morehead State beat Louisville in Round 1 during the first session of games. Turns out I wasn’t hot anything. But those who put their faith in Butler and VCU most certainly are.

Typically the cream rises to the top in the Final 4, so jspearlman could be in trouble in VCU loses to Butler. But if not, the man who put his faith in VCU will most likely win it all. There are really only two words – in addition to completely insane – that can be used to describe that:

Shocking. Smart.

**********

Many may wonder how are these high seeds winning so many games.  The answer to this question has two parts: defense and, most importantly, the three-point shot.

Defense

Defense is a huge part of how upsets have been occurring this year.  Looking back to the Butler Bulldogs of 2010, they were able to pull off upsets because they held teams to under 60 points.

When we take a look at upsets from this year, higher seeds are able to hold the favorites under their season averages, thus creating the opportunity for themselves to pull off the upset.

• #13 Morehead State held #4 Louisville to 61. (Season Avg. 74.9)
• #12 Richmond held #5 Vanderbilt to 66 (Season Avg. 75.9)
• #10 Florida State held #7 Texas A&M to 50 (Season Avg. 68.3)
• #11 Marquette held #6 Xavier to 55 (Season Avg. 72.1)
• #11 Virginia Commonwealth held #6 Georgetown to 56 (Season Avg. 71)
• #8 Butler held #1 Pittsburgh to 70 ( Season Avg. 74)
• #11 Marquette held #3 Syracuse to 62 (Season Avg. 73.6)
• #10 Florida State held #2 Notre Dame to 57 (Season Avg. 76)

In the upsets, the winning teams held their opponents to a combined 108.8 points below their season averages, proving the point that defense is a key factor into the recipe for a major upset.

Three-Pointers

While defense is key, the three-point shot is probably the key factor in a team pulling off a major upset.  Teams that catch fire in the tournament are usually destined to make long tourney runs, and the 2011 NCAA Tournament is proving to be no different.

• #13 Morehead State 9-19 (47.4%) from the 3 point line in upset victory over #4 Louisville
• #12 Richmond 12-24 (50%) from the 3 point line in upset victory over #5 Vanderbilt
• #11 Gonzaga 9-15 (60%) from the 3 point line in upset victory over #6 St. John’s
• #11 Virginia Commonwealth 12-25 (48%) from the 3 point line in upset victory over #6 Georgetown
• #8 Butler 12-27 (44.4%) from the 3 point line in upset victory over #1 Pittsburgh
• #11 Virginia Commonwealth 8-21 (38.1%) from the 3 point line in upset victory over #3 Purdue
• #10 Florida State 9-19 (47.4%) from the 3 point line in upset victory over #2 Notre Dame

As most can see, the three-point line and defense are vital aspects to teams pulling off an upset.  If a higher seed can jump out on a team early with a few quick three-pointers, then hunker down on defense, a major upset is very feasible.

With this said, as we look forward to how to apply the lessons of 2011 to our brackets in 2012, the question becomes: were there signs in teams’ season stats that showed they were very capable of pulling off such upsets?  Should one look deeper into defensive efficiency and three-point statistics when picking their brackets for the future?

Season Stats for 2011 – Defense

As it was mentioned above, looking at defensive and three-point stats of teams could have helped people predict these upsets, and they’d be sitting at the top of their pool, instead of in the cellar.  First, we’ll take a look at teams’ season defensive stats to see if their defense in the upsets was a fluke, or if it was a sign for everybody to pick these bracket-busting upsets.

Morehead State over Louisville

We look back to Morehead State holding Louisville to almost 14 points below their season average.  According to KenPom, Morehead State was ranked 94th in the country, however, their defensive efficiency was ranked at 84th.  Kenpom had Louisville ranked 14th, however their offensive efficiency was at 50th in the country.  When you put Morehead State’s defensive efficiency above their overall ranking, and Louisville’s offensive efficiency below the overall ranking, that is a key ingredient for a possible upset.

Richmond over Vanderbilt

Richmond was able to hold Vanderbilt to almost 10 points below their season average.  Kenpom ranked Richmond overall at 37, and their defensive efficiency at 48.  Vanderbilt was ranked at 35, with their offensive efficiency at 13.  When just looking at these two factors, Vanderbilt still seems like the favorite.  However, when looking at Vanderbilt’s defensive efficiency, they are ranked all the way at 90th.  With Richmond having the much better defensive efficiency, and defense being the most important aspect of tournament games, Richmond’s upset potential spikes, and they proved their defense helped them pull off the upset.

Florida State over Texas A&M

Florida state held Texas A&M to 18 points under their average for the season.  Florida State was ranked overall by Kenpom at 27, but their defensive efficiency was number 1 in the entire country.  When looking at Texas A&M, ranked 50th overall with an offensive efficiency ranking of 70.  With Florida State having the number 1 defensive efficiency in the entire nation, and Texas A&M’s offensive efficiency at a sub-par 70, this should have been a sure-fire upset pick for your pool.

Marquette over Xavier

Marquette held Xavier to 55 points, 17 below their season average.  Overall, Marquette was ranked 26th by Kenpom with a defensive efficiency of 54th.  Xavier was ranked overall at 44th, and their offensive efficiency was ranked 42nd. However, Xavier’s defensive efficiency was at 58th.  While this game did not cry out upset due to efficiency rankings, Marquette did have the higher defensive efficiency in a tournament where defense means most.

Virginia Commonwealth over Georgetown

Virginia Commonwealth was not a team Kenpom efficiency rankings could have predicted.  VCU had a defensive efficiency ranking of 111th in the country, where Georgetwon had an offensive efficiency ranking of 43.  Most did not believe VCU could beat Georgetown, however, VCU was able to buy into the recipe of defense for the Georgetown game and held them to 15 points below their season average.

Butler over Pittsburgh

Butler over Pitt was another game that would not have been predicted by Kenpom efficiency rankings.  Butler had a defensive efficiency of 74th, and Pitt had an offensive efficiency of 6th.  However, just like VCU, Butler was able to buy into the recipe of defense against Pittsburgh and hold them under their season average.  Buying into the defensive aspect in the tournament helped them pull off one of the biggest upsets of the tournament.

Marquette over Syracuse

Marquette was able to hold Syracuse to 11 points under their season average.  As stated above, Marquette was ranked 26th overall, with a defensive efficiency of 54th.  Syracuse on the other hand was ranked 11th overall, had an offensive efficiency of 20th, and defensive efficiency of 14th.  Once again, with just a quick glance at efficiency rankings, Syracuse may seem like the heavy favorite.  In games like this, you can dig deeper and see that these two teams had already met once earlier in the season.  In the earlier match-up, Marquette beat Syracuse 76-70.  In the matchup in the tournament, Marquette played even better defense, and it bought them a trip to the Sweet 16.

Florida State over Notre Dame

Florida State held Notre Dame to an astounding 19 points under their season average.  Florida State was a team that had also pulled of an upset in the first round. (technically 2nd round)  Again, Florida State was ranked overall at 27th, but their defensive efficiency was ranked number 1 in the country.  While Notre Dame did have the number 3 ranked offensive efficiency, like I stated earlier, defense is what wins games in the tournament, and Florida State proved that. 

Season Stats – Three Pointers

Just like defense, three-point field goals are a key ingredient to any upset in the tournament.  Above, we showed team’s three-point field goals in their respective games we won, but we’ll dig deeper to see if these teams had a trend of being able to knock down three point jumpers for the entire season, and if there were signs looming that these three-point shots could help predict upsets.

Morehead State over Louisville

Morehead State was not a team that would have been predicted to be three-point threats.  Morehead State was ranked 190th in the nation in three-point field goals, and made 5.8 three-pointers per game.  However, one could have predicted that Morehead State would attempt a lot of three-pointers because they attempted 17 per game in the regular season.  It would be understood that if Morehead State could get hot, a lot of attempts would begin to be a lot of makes, and that proved true as Morehead State went 9-19 in an upset victory over Louisville.

Richmond over Vanderbilt

Richmond was a team that proved they could hit the three-pointer the entire season.  Richmond was 10th in the entire NCAA in three-point field goal percentage.  Also, Richmond hit 7.9 three-point field goals per game in the regular season.  Those stats alone show that an upset is very attainable, and Richmond pulled off the upset shooting 12-24 behind the arc.

Gonzaga over St. John’s

Gonzaga was a team that was 72nd out of 346 teams in terms of three-point percentage.  Also, Gonzaga shot 16 three-pointers per game in the regular season.  The combination of the two statistics show that Gonzaga had the potential to shoot a lot of three-pointers, and they shot them at a pretty high percentage.  Those two factors point to a potential upset, and Gonzaga pulled off the easy upset shooting 9-15 from the three-point line.

Virginia Commonwealth over Georgetown

Virginia Commonwealth was a team that shot the three-point shot in the top-third of the NCAA in terms of percentage.  The eye-opening number to those filling out a bracket should have been that Virginia Commonwealth 23 three-point shots per game.  With the combination of being a pretty good three-point shooting team and the vast number of attempts VCU put up, the three-point ingredient fit just right.  VCU proved the three-pointer helped them by shooting 12-25 from beyond the arc and pulling off the upset over Georgetown. 

Butler over Pittsburgh

Butler was another team that shot the ball in the upper-third of the entire NCAA.  With 21 three-point attempts per game, and their reliance on the three-point basket in previous tournaments, butler was a certainty to use the three-point basket to be a bracket-buster, and they were able to pull it off once again.  Butler shot 12-27 in their upset victory over Pittsburgh.

Virginia Commonwealth over Purdue

As it was shown above, Virginia Commonwealth was one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation from a percentage standpoint, and they attempted more three-point baskets than most teams would think of.  The Purdue game proved to be no different for VCU, as they shot 8-21 from beyond the arc, and stunned the Boilermakers.

The Idea Behind the Recipe

The idea behind the defense and three-point argument is to help you (yes you) pick the upsets nobody else would ever fathom happening.  Are there upsets where no defense is played and the team shoots terribly from the three-point line?  Yes, but they rarely happened.

Look at the upsets from the 2011 NCAA Tournament, and most of the upsets had at least one of the key ingredients for an upset, and a lot of them had both key ingredients.

While this is not a perfect system for picking upsets, it can help you get first place in your brackets for years to come.

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About the Author

Tony Adragna is a student at Indiana University studying Sports Communication-Broadcast and Entrepreneurship.  Tony is the founder of the group Hysterical Hoosiers, and also hosts his own radio show and blog, SportsRadioDnT.  Tony is an avid sports fan and very addicted to Twitter.  You can find Tony on Twitter, @tonyadragna.  Aside from that, Tony is a huge IU fan, and plans to host his own radio empire someday.

To wit – BYU and San Diego State can indeed pair off with anyone in the country and the mistake is still being made involving sleeping on the Butler Bulldogs.

Meanwhile, North Carolina and Duke both survived their second round games by the skin of their teeth, partly because the NCAA always mandates that one of the tourney sites during the first two weekends be somewhere in the state of North Carolina.

If Washington v. Tar Heels were played instead in say Cleveland or Tulsa, does Carolina still survive the round of 32??

And the Big East surpassed all expectations of a possible thud; throw out UConn and Marquette (who beat other Big East members over the weekend) and the conference was essentially shut out. Charles Barkley may be outspoken, but before Selection Sunday I was one of those that suggested that the Big East be capped at eight teams, even if it would have left out the school whose campus I drive through every day and that now gets their long-awaited tourney rematch with North Carolina in the Sweet 16.

When the smoke finally cleared last night, the chalk survived with ten of the 16 top seeds. As we decompress after four days of wall-to-wall hoops, a synopsis on the four Regionals, and some of the teams that went by the wayside.

EAST (Newark)

• Still alive: #1 Ohio State/#2 North Carolina/#4 Kentucky/#11 Marquette

The Buckeyes are still the clear front-runners to be king of the dance, but they are going to have to earn their ticket to Houston with Kentucky and, potentially, North Carolina as formidable chicanes. That said, Ohio State will be tough, especially if Jon Diebler and David Lighty continue to go ballistic with three pointers.

And the best thing that ever happened to Marquette?? The day Tom Crean finally decided to leave town. Buzz Williams continues to steer that ship just fine, thank you – and the program is finally rewarded by getting out of the first weekend for first time since the D-Wade 2003 team.  But now the buzz is that Buzz’s name is in the coaching rumor-mill, most notably Arkansas or Oklahoma.

As for the departed, for a team that had to fly cross-country to get there, Lorenzo Romar and the University of Washington continues to make a great impression.

WEST (Anaheim)

• Still alive: #1 Duke/#2 San Diego St./#3 Uconn/#5 Arizona

Obviously a star-studded regional, and we will find out once and for all how legit Steve Fisher and his San Diego St. squad is after grinding out a double-overtime win over Temple that was not totally impressive. Being close to home will be the one intangible in favor of the Aztecs.

Arizona’s Derrick Williams is being touted as #1 overall material in what will be a wide-open 2011 NBA Draft, but he was not exactly golden until saving Arizona over Texas late.

I may have to think twice about writing off Duke and still white-hot UConn, especially if soon-to-be draft bound Kyrie Irving can step it up and be a difference maker. Coach K’s troops have a great chance to make it to the Final Four yet again.

SOUTHWEST (San Antonio)

• Still alive: #1 Kansas/#10 Florida St./#11 VCU/#12 Richmond

There is this town out east called Richmond – turns out they play some pretty good hoops over there. Assuming there will be a lot of flights from Virginia to San Antonio this week, and although VCU at least has a punchers chance against Florida St., it might be slightly too much to dare dream about that Richmond v. VCU regional final.

And then there are the Seminoles, who sent Notre Dame packing (at least not far to go from Chicago to South Bend) with it’s stifling defense. Conceding just over 35% from the field, FSU touts the lowest FG% to the opposition of any D-1 team in the last ten years. From a Kansas perspective however, you can not possibly ask for a bracket that has been busted more wide open, as the Jayhawks truly have the Yellow Brick Road paved from San Antonio to Houston.

SOUTHEAST (New Orleans)

• Still alive: #2 Florida/#3 BYU/#4 Wisconsin/#8 Butler

When the Latter-Day Saints Come Marching In. While San Diego St.’s win over Temple was more like a tooth extraction, Team Jimmer went shock and awe in a surprisingly easy win over future conference rival Gonzaga, capping off a weekend in Denver that saw the Cougar faithful in Denver break out the best signs outside of a Scott Walker protest in Madison. (Bonus BYU take: Turns out Ivory-Coast born Charles Abouo spent part of his childhood in Milwaukee!!)

As far as Butler is concerned, the last two seconds of their upset of Pitt will remain well chronicled for eternity, but the first 39:58 was what put the Bulldogs in position to win. 20 years from now will we be talking about Brad Stevens like we do currently about Mike Kryzewski now?? Or down the road Stevens even becomes Coach K’s successor. It would only be a plum job like Duke that I would see Stevens leaving Butler anytime soon.

And then there is Bo Ryan and the Wisconsin Badgers. Under Ryan, Sconnie has made it to the Round of 32 nine of ten years and to the Sweet 16 three times.

Finally Billy Donovan and Florida complete the bracket, they are the highest seed left in the region, but getting blown out by Kentucky in the SEC final shows how vulnerable they can potentially be.

Butler/Wisconsin may be the best game of the Sweet 16, with BYU/Florida not far behind. A Wisconsin/BYU showdown featuring Jordan Taylor v. Jimmer would be an absolute dream. Any one of these four are truly capable of crashing the Final Four party.

My Final Four picks:

• #1 Ohio State
• #1 Duke
• #1 Kansas
• #3 BYU

I sound like the ESPN/Yahoo talking heads going chalk…

With a thrilling 71-70 victory over #1 seed Pittsburgh, Brad Stevens and the #8 seed Bulldogs are moving on to the Sweet 16.

In the locker room after the game, a jubilant bunch of ‘Dawgs and their terrific coach celebrated what has become commonplace for them: a down-to-the-wire victory over a higher profile, favored foe.

I have already decided that next year I am making a significant change to my bracket predicting system. I will add the category “Is Brad Stevens their coach?” If he is, you get an extra point – or hell, maybe just an automatic win.

I’ll close by saying this to Butler: for the second straight year you are making March a little less depressing for this IU fan. Thank you. Hoosiers everywhere are behind you again!

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The brackets were revealed with an interesting panel that included the constantly smiling Seth Davis and the always honest Charles Barkley, and while watching the selection show, I saw four games that I believe can really shake up the brackets.

Upset Pick: #13 Oakland over #4 Texas

Many people had Texas as their #1 overall seed just a few weeks ago, but things have changed. They ended up finishing 27-7 and runner up in the Big 12 tournament.

I doubt that they know much about what Oakland has accomplished this season. The Grizz have a record of 25-9 and 17-1 in the Summit League, while capturing the conference title.

The reason Oakland can cause trouble for Texas is because of who they have played this season. The Oakland Golden Grizzlies had games against Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Tennesee, and Ohio State. They only won against Tennessee, but they only lost by 1 to MSU.

Their forward, Will Hudson, averages 7 rebounds per game and can bang around in the post. They also have two players who average 17+ points a contest, including Summit League Player of the Year Keith Benson (right).

Jordan Hamilton and the Longhorns will go in as the favorites, but I believe that they might be heading home early this year.

Upset Pick: #13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin

The average person would hear that Belmont was in the tourney and think that they were just another 13 seed who would lose without a fight. That’s far from the truth. The Bruins are 30-3 this season with two of their losses coming against the Tennesse Vols. They finished first in the Atlantic Sun and won the conference tournament.

Wisconsin is coming off of a historically poor performance against Penn State in which they only scored 33 points. It was an embarrassing performance to say the least, and that’s not the way to come into the tourney. (They were also beaten by Ohio State 93-65 last weekend.)

If you have more than one bracket, going with Belmont in the “upset” bracket wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Upset Pick: #13 Princeton over #4 Kentucky

The Kentucky Wildcats won the SEC on Sunday with a strong performance against Florida. They are led by a freshman, once again, in Brandon Knight, who averages 17.5 points a game.

Princeton showed some pre-tournament madness when they hit a buzzer beater against Harvard to win the Ivy League in a one game playoff. It was impressive, and after watching I feel that they could give Kentucky a run.

Being so young can and has hurt Kentucky in the past. Princeton will look to follow up the success of Ivy League teams shown by Cornell last year.

Upset Pick: #11 USC (If they beat VCU in the First Four) over #6 Georgetown

The Hoyas have been on a downward spiral, losing five of their last six games in the Big East. Their only impressive wins are over Louisville and Syracuse earlier in the year.

USC has had some recent issues with their coach being suspended for yelling at a fan, but those issues are now  cleared up. The Trojans have wins over Tennessee, Texas, and a two point loss to Kansas. If they get past VCU, the Trojans could be moving on to the Round of 32.

Whereas before games were televised only on CBS, thus putting you at the whims of CBS’ decision-making for what game would be shown in your area, now you can choose whatever game you wish with TNT, TBS, and truTV joining CBS for March Madness TV coverage. Thus, no longer must you sit passively waiting for Greg Gumbel to bring you live look-ins or have your laptop open to March Madness On Demand. Any game will be just a click of the remote away.

But, as great as this sounds, there is an unintended consequence: you must now be your own viewing director. No more passive March Madness consumption. Are you ready for the challenge? It may be more of one than you think.

For each of the Tournament’s first four days, I’ll help you out by posting that day’s TV Schedule and “viewing gameplan” to give you some idea of how to attack your day of basketball viewing. Obviously you’ll have to adjust for blowouts, upsets-in-the-making, and games that go down to the wire, but at least you’ll have something to start with.
A couple quick notes before we start:

• I am getting my TV schedule from the incomparable FangsBites.com. Whenever you want info on the sports media, this blog is a great place to go.
• My suggestions below are obviously for people watching the tourney from my mindset: with no horse in the race. My Hoosiers are out of it, so I am just trying to maximize my enjoyment. If your team is playing, clearly that is the game you should be watching, even if Gus Johnson is announcing a down-to-the-wire upset. (Well…you should probably flip over at that point.)

March Madness 2011 TV Schedule and Viewing Gameplan for Thursday, March 17th

Early Afternoon Session – First Games

• 12:15 ET: West Virginia v UAB/Clemson on CBS w/ Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel
• 12:40 ET: Butler v Old Dominion on truTV w/ Tim Brando and Mike Gminski
• 1:40 ET: Louisville v Morehead State on TBS w/ Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• 2:10 ET: Temple v Penn State on TNT w/ Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller & Dan Bonner

Early Afternoon Session – Second Games

• Approx 2:45 ET: Kentucky v Princeton on CBS w/ Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel
• Approx 3:00 ET: Pittsburgh v UNC-Asheville/Arkansas-Little Rock on truTV w/ Tim Brando and Mike Gminski
• Approx 4:00 ET: Vanderbilt v Richmond on TBS w/ Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Approx 4:30 ET: San Diego State v Northern Colorado on TNT w/ Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller & Dan Bonner

Rick Pitino surely appreciates morehead, especially in restaurants late at night, but he may not appreciate drawing a tough Morehead State team in the first round.

In my bracket predictions article, one of my big upsets was Morehead State over Louisville, plus Bill Raftery is doing this game, so I am going to suggest that you make this game your focus once it’s on, and let it anchor your early afternoon viewing. But be ready to flip back to Butler-Old Dominion once that game gets into the second half because it should be a tight game with a great finish.

Louisville-Morehead State should be over around 3:40, which will allow you to flip over Kentucky-Princeton. I think this is a game to keep an eye on. By the time you get there, it’ll be around the start of the second half. Princeton doesn’t have the athletes to keep up with Kentucky, but if the Wildcats are not focused and Princeton makes shots, they could keep it close.

Finally, both of the last two games are worth sticking around for. Vanderbilt-Richmond should be a tight game, and many people, including our own Sports Muse, are predicting Richmond to pull off the 5-12 upset. Watch that close finish, and then catch a little bit of San Diego State-Northern Colorado. This game shouldn’t be close, but the Aztecs are a legit Final 4 contender, so make sure you are acquainted with Kawhi Leonard before SDSU starts making their push deeper into the tourney.

Late Afternoon Session – First Games

• 6:50 ET: Florida v UC-Santa Barbara on TBS w/ Ian Eagle & Jim Spanarkel
• 7:15 ET: BYU v Wofford on CBS w/ Verne Lundquist & Bill Raftery
• 7:20 ET: UCONN v Bucknell on TNT w/ Tim Brando & Mike Gminski
• 7:27 ET: Wisconsin v Belmont on truTV w/ Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller & Dan Bonner

Late Afternoon Session – Second Games

• Approx 9:15 ET: UCLA v Michigan State on TBS w/ Ian Eagle & Jim Spanarkel
• Approx 9:45 ET: St. John’s v Gonzaga on CBS w/ Verne Lundquist & Bill Raftery
• Approx 9:50 ET: Cincinnati v Missouri on TNT w/ Tim Brando & Mike Gminski
• Approx 9:55 ET: Kansas State v Utah State on truTV w/ Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller & Dan Bonneer

UCONN may need the brilliant Kemba Walker to save it from a first round Bucknell upset.

The late afternoon games shape up much like the early games do. My other big upset is Bucknell over UCONN, which plays in the third game much like Louisville-Morehead State above. Assuming Bucknell can keep this game tight – and I think they can – then you are going to want to watch this ball game. Not only could it be the biggest upset of the first round, even if it’s not you still get to enjoy Kemba Walker, one of the best individual players in the tournament. And if UCONN does run away with this one, you’ve always got Bill Raftery calling Jimmer Fredette on CBS. Even if BYU dominates Wofford (and without Brandon Davies, they might not) Fredette will be fun to watch.

I think this session will present a problem though, because Wisconsin-Belmont is going to be a good game. I think Wisconsin will win, but a lot of people are picking Belmont. And why not? Belmont is actually a top 20 according to KenPom.com. I think Wisconsin is a little better than people seem to be giving them credit for, but it’s not like the Badgers play a style that blows games wide open. So be ready to have your finger on the clicker beginning at about 8:45 because both UCONN-Bucknell and Wisconsin-Belmont could go down to the wire as upsets in the making.

For the nightcap, UCLA and Michigan State are both talented teams that are inconsistent. Watching Ben Howland and Tom Izzo is always fun though, and I think the 10th-seeded Spartans have one more good game in them this year. Chances are though, that you won’t be watching this one because the finishes to UCONN-Bucknell and Wisconsin-Belmont should be so competitive. But definitely don’t stop watching just because the night games don’t have the star power of the early games.

In each one of the nightcap games on Thursday night, there is a very real shot for the lower-seeded team to win. In fact, in my predictions, I have all four lower-seeded teams doing just that. With no marquee matchup to point to, my best advice for the second session of Thursday night games is to have your remote ready and to definitely stay up for the K State-Utah State game. This was my 5-12 upset pick – the Aggies are 16th in KenPom’s rankings, despite their #12 seeding.

Readers: what do you think? Am I leading viewers astray? Chime in if you think other games should be peoples’ focus.

Update: For the second year in a row, we are holding an MSF Bracket Challenge over at ESPN.com. Sign up now and then fill in your brackets after they are announced on Selection Sunday.

March Madness 2011 is going to have a bit of a different flavor than the past few because, once again, the tournament field has been expanded.

The last expansion added a 65^th team and instituted a so-called “play-in” game, which matched the two lowest seeded teams against one another for the right to play the top overall seed. That game has now been eliminated (or perhaps repurposed would be a better word), and three more teams have been added to the field – bringing the total to 68 overall.

In this post we will describe how the newly minted “First Four” round will play out, as well as provide all of the March Madness 2011 dates and locations, plus March Madness 2011 ticket and TV information.

March Madness 2011

NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament

Update: For the second year in a row, we are hold an MSF Bracket Challenge over at ESPN.com. Sign up now and then fill in your brackets after they are announced on Selection Sunday.

First, here is a quick rundown of the key dates for March Madness 2011:

March Madness 2011 Key Dates

• Conference Tournaments: March 7-13
• Selection Sunday: March 13th
• First Round: March 15-16
• Second and Third Rounds: March 17-20
• Regional Semi-Final and Final Rounds: March 24-27
• Final Four: April 2^nd
• National Championship Game: April 4^th

Next, a brief description for the how the First Four will play out:

Each of the 68 teams that make the March Madness 2011 field will be ranked from 1 to 68.  The field will then be split into four 17-team regionals. The last four at-large teams to make the tournament (these teams are usually seeded in the 10-12 range) and the last four automatic qualifiers (think: #16 seeds in past tournaments) will then play in the First Four.

• The winners of the two battles between at-large teams will most likely be slotted as either #12 or #13 seeds, to face a #4 or #5 seed, depending on how the committee organizes the bracket.
• The winners of the two battles between automatic qualifying teams will be slotted as #16 seeds to face #1 seeds.

Basically, four teams will be eliminated during the first two days of the tournament and then we’ll be left with the neat, tidy 64-team bracket that we all know and love. The main difference is that what we used to know as the First and Second Rounds  (i.e. the tournament’s opening weekend) will now officially be known as the Second and Third Rounds.

Got it? Good. Let’s move on. (If you have questions, pose them in the comment section.)

Now let’s get on with the breakdown of the March Madness 2011 schedule and tournament sites, plus links for March Madness 2011 tickets.

All ticket links below, unless otherwise denoted, are for RazorGator. For all RazorGator tickets, MSF readers are encouraged to use the following codes at checkout to get discounts:

• $30 off on all orders of $300 or more: RG300J
• $20 off on all orders of $150 or more: RG150J
• $10 off purchase over $110 or more: ORDR10RG
• Free shipping on all orders of $$100 or more: FSOVERRG

Note: I don’t know if you can use more than one code per purchase, but I doubt it. Also, these codes work as of February 2nd, 2011, but their continued acceptance is at the sole discretion of RazorGator. Hopefully they continue to honor these codes throughout the tournament.

If you want to price/seat shop among a variety of different websites, here you go:

• RazorGator: March Madness 2011 Tickets

• Ticket Liquidator: March Madness 2011 Tickets

• Vivid Seats: March Madness 2011 Tickets

• TickCo: March Madness 2011 Tickets

• Ace Ticket: March Madness 2011 Tickets

March Madness 2011 First Four (Opening Round) Dates, Location, Tickets

Host City and School: Dayton, Ohio (Dayton University)

• First Four Dates: March 15-16 (Tuesday & Wednesday)
• First Four Site: University of Dayton Arena
• First Four Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Opening Round in Dayton

March Madness 2011: 2nd/3rd Rounds (Opening Weekend) Dates, Locations, Tickets

Host City and School: Washington, D.C. (Georgetown University)

• NCAA Tournament Washington, D.C. Dates: March 17^th and 19^th (Thu/Sat)
• NCAA Tournament Washington, D.C. Site: Verizon Center
• NCAA Tournament Washington, D.C. Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Washington D.C.

Host City and School: Tucson, Arizona (University of Arizona)

• NCAA Tournament Tucson Dates: March 17^th and 19^th (Thu/Sat)
• NCAA Tournament Tucson Site: McKale Center
• NCAA Tournament Tucson Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Tucson

Host City and School: Denver, Colorado (Mountain West Conference)

• NCAA Tournament Denver Dates: March 17^th and 19^th (Thu/Sat)
• NCAA Tournament Denver Site: Pepsi Center
• NCAA Tournament Denver Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Denver

Host City and School: Tampa, Florida (University of South Florida)

• NCAA Tournament Tampa Dates: March 17^th and 19^th (Thu/Sat)
• NCAA Tournament Tampa Site: St. Pete Times Forum
• NCAA Tournament Tampa Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Tampa

Host City and School: Cleveland, Ohio (Cleveland State University)

• NCAA Tournament Cleveland Dates: March 18^th and 20^th (Fri/Sun)
• NCAA Tournament Cleveland Site: Quicken Loans Arena
• NCAA Tournament Cleveland Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Cleveland

Host City and School: Charlotte, North Carolina (UNC-Charlotte)

• NCAA Tournament Charlotte Dates: March 18^th and 20^th (Fri/Sun)
• NCAA Tournament Charlotte Site: Time Warner Cable Arena
• NCAA Tournament Charlotte Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Charlotte

Host City and School: Chicago, Illinois (Big Ten Conference)

• NCAA Tournament Chicago Dates: March 18^th and 20^th (Fri/Sun)
• NCAA Tournament Chicago Site: United Center
• NCAA Tournament Chicago Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Chicago

Host City and School: Tulsa, Oklahoma (University of Tulsa)

• NCAA Tournament Tulsa Dates: March 18^th and 20^th (Fri/Sun)
• NCAA Tournament Tulsa Site: BOK Center
• NCAA Tournament Tulsa Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Second and Third Round (Opening Weekend) in Tulsa

March Madness 2011: Regional Semi-Final and Final Dates, Locations, Tickets

West Regional: Anaheim, California (Big West Conference)

• West Regional Anaheim Dates: March 24^th and 26^th (Thu/Sat)
• West Regional Anaheim Site: Honda Center
• West Regional Anaheim Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – West Regional Semi-Final (Sweet 16) and Final (Elite 8) in Anaheim

Southeast Regional: New Orleans, Louisiana (Tulane University)

• Southeast Regional New Orleans Dates: March 24^th and 26^th (Thu/Sat)
• Southeast Regional New Orleans Site: New Orleans Arena
• Southeast Regional New Orleans Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Southeast Regional Semi-Final (Sweet 16) and Final (Elite 8) in New Orleans

Southwest Regional: San Antonio, Texas (University of Texas-San Antonio)

• Southwest Regional San Antonio Dates: March 25^th and 27^th (Fri/Sun)
• Southwest Regional San Antonio Site: Alamodome
• Southwest Regional San Antonio Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Southwest Regional Semi-Final (Sweet 16) and Final (Elite 8) in San Antonio

East Regional: Newark, New Jersey (Seton Hall University)

• East Regional Newark Dates: March 25^th and 27^th (Fri/Sun)
• East Regional Newark Site: Prudential Center
• East Regional Newark Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – East Regional Semi-Final (Sweet 16) and Final (Elite 8) in Newark

March Madness 2011: Final Four Dates, Locations, Tickets

Final Four: Houston, Texas (Rice University & the University of Houston)

• 2011 Final Four Dates: April 2^nd and 4^th (Fri/Sun)
• 2011 Final Four Site: Reliant Stadium
• 2011 Final Four Tickets: March Madness 2011 Tickets – Final Four and NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament Championship Game in Houston

March Madness 2011 TV Schedule and Announcing Teams

CBS Sports will not be the sole broadcaster of March Madness in 2011. In fact, in April of 201, the NCAA inked a 14-year contract with both CBS and Turner Sports (TBS, TNT, truTV) to cover the NCAA mens basketball Tournament through 2024.

Here is now the March Madness 2011 TV schedule will break down:

• First Four Games: all on truTV
• Second and Third Round Games: CBS, TBS, TNT (to be determined how it will split up)
• Sweet 16 Games: CBS and TBS
• Regional Final Games: CBS
• Final Four Games: CBS

Note: all games will be streamed online (either at NCAA.com or CBSSports.com).

The announcing teams and studio crews will be an amalgamation of CBS’ college basketball team and the Turner Sports NBA team.

March Madness 2011 Announcing Teams:

• Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg (to be joined by Steve Kerr and Tracy Wolfson for Final Four)
• GUS JOHNSON and Len Elmore
• Marv Albert and Steve Kerr
• Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller, and Dan Bonner
• Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel
• Tim Brando and Mike Gminski
• Spero Dedes and Bob Wenzel

Studio Analysts: Greg Anthony, Charles Barkely, Seth Davis, Reggie Miller, Kenny Smith, and Steve Smith

Sideline Reporters: David Aldridge, Sam Ryan, Craig Sager, Marty Snider, Lesley Visser, and Tracy Wolfson

Obviously we will have much, much, much more coverage of the NCAA mens basketball tournament and all of the conference tournaments once they get closer. But I wanted to post this now for anyone preparing to make plans to attend any of the games. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait. There is no time on the sporting calendar when I am a happier and more satisfied sports fan than during these three weeks in March and April. They cannot get here soon enough.

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UPDATE 2/10: AWESOME NEWS!

No really, this is awesome news.

As reported today by Richard Deitsch of SI.com, college basketball fans will be able to be their “own television programmer for March Madness” thanks to the addition of TBS, TNT, and truTV to the NCAA Tournament TV broadcast team.

In previous tournaments, as you know, all games were broadcast on CBS, which meant that we were all at the mercy of CBS in terms of what games we could and could not watch. In recent years, CBS made all games available online. This was nice, but it’s still more enjoyable to be able to watch your top choice on TV.

And now you’ll be able to.

From Deitsch:

The expanded 68-team tournament tips off in prime time on truTV on Tuesday, March 15, with a set of games being called the “First Four.” The opening game airs at 6:30 p.m. ET followed by a game at 9 p.m. That schedule will be repeated the next day on truTV.

The two First Four winners will advance to what is now known as the second round. The scheduled start times for these games on March 17 and 18 are as follows: noon (CBS), 12:30 p.m. (truTV), 1:30 p.m. (TBS) and 2 p.m. (TNT). The second set of games begin at 2:30 p.m. (CBS), 3 p.m. (truTV), 4 p.m. (TBS) and 4:30 p.m. (TNT).

Then we get to prime time. TBS opens the coverage with a 6:45 p.m. tip-off followed by games at 7 p.m. (CBS), 7:15 p.m. (TNT and truTV). The final games of the night begin at 9:15 p.m. (TBS), 9:30 p.m. (CBS), 9:45 p.m. (TNT), and 9:55 p.m. (truTV).

The staggered start times mean viewers can toggle between games, as well as get added pre- and postgame show commentary from CBS and Turner talent.

In short: every single NCAA Tournament game will be on TV. Rejoice!

Oops, sorry Michigan State fans. Poor choice of picture. You can’t watch your team on any station if they don’t even make the tourney…

As usual, some people agreed and some people disagreed. What cannot disputed as we get ready to embark on March Madness 2011 and another NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament, is the importance of being the last team standing in March. As any Indiana fan can tell you, once you hang a banner for a national championship, no one can ever take it away from you – and it gives you a pretty strong trump card in any argument over teams with fewer or zero national titles.

So which school has the ultimate trump card? Well, UCLA does of course, with their 11 national titles. The table below shows you all the teams who have won the NCAA Mens College Basketball Tournament, and which schools have won it the most.

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The good news is that makes for a ton of exciting basketball.  The bad news is that it makes for a ton of teams for me to write about in this edition of Bubble Boys.

Here’s my list of locks from the six major conferences, obviously barring significant injury or utter collapse:

ACC (2): Duke, North Carolina

Big East (9): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, St. John’s, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia

Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big 12 (4): Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

Pac-10 (1): Arizona

SEC (3): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

As for the bubble, here’s a quick rundown:

Alabama (18-8, 10-2 SEC) – Non-conference losses to the likes of Iowa, St. Peter’s, and Providence stick out when reviewing Alabama’s resume, as does a road loss to Arkansas.  However, the Tide look like a different team these days, particularly on the defensive end where they rank seventh in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings.  They have wins over Kentucky and Tennessee and have won eight of their last nine games, but overall they’re just 3-4 against the RPI Top 100.  Ten victories have come against teams outside of the Top 200, and a laughable SEC West has presented few chances for quality wins.  Their final two games are at Florida followed by Georgia at home, which they at least need to split.

Baylor (17-9, 6-6 Big 12) – Just when the Bears seemed to have righted the ship, they lost at home to Texas Tech on Saturday.  Oh by the way, the Red Raiders played without their best player.  Baylor’s only marginally impressive win is over Texas A&M, who has struggled mightily away from home.  On the other hand, the Bears have ugly losses at Iowa State and Oklahoma, and the neutral court loss to Washington State looks worse with each passing week.  The good news is that their final four games (at Missouri, vs. Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State, vs. Texas) give them ample opportunity to prove themselves.

Boston College (16-10, 6-6 ACC) – An uber-efficient offense paired with a completely inept defense has BC planted firmly on the bubble.  They had a chance to pick up a key win against North Carolina on Saturday, but a painfully slow start and poor late-game execution sealed their fate.  The Eagles are now just 3-6 in their last nine contests and are 1-6 against the RPI Top 50.  A loss to Harvard isn’t as bad as you might think, but the same can’t be said for losing to Yale.  BC has three “can’t lose” games remaining plus a trip to Virginia Tech, and finishing 4-0 would take a little pressure off entering the ACC Tournament.

Cincinnati (21-6, 8-6 Big East) – Wednesday’s home victory over Louisville was critical for UC’s at-large hopes, but I still have doubts about this team.  Blowing a big lead and getting pushed to OT by Providence on Saturday did little to clam those fears.  Nine of the Bearcats’ 21 wins have come against teams outside of the Top 200 thanks to an extremely weak non-conference schedule.  UC finishes at Georgetown, vs. UConn, at Marquette, and vs. Georgetown, so a 0-4 finish is not out of the question.  On the other hand, wins over Xavier and on the road against St. John’s are looking more impressive now than when they occurred.

Clemson (18-9, 7-6 ACC) – A road loss to North Carolina State last week leaves the Tigers with virtually no margin for error.  They finish at Duke and home against Virginia Tech, and with their RPI hovering in the upper 60s, Clemson may need to win both to be considered.  Five of their nine losses are against teams that wouldn’t be in the tournament if it started today.

Colorado (16-11, 5-7 Big 12) – The Buffs are 2-7 in their last nine games, but they do have four Top 50 wins, which is more than quite a few other bubble teams can claim.  They should be able to finish at 8-8 in league play and have a chance for a marquee win against Texas next Saturday.  A sweep of Kansas State and win over Colorado State are useful in bubble deliberations, but losses to San Francisco and Oklahoma may prove tough to overcome.

Florida State (19-7, 9-3 ACC) – If not for the foot injury to junior stud Chris Singleton, the Noles would probably be listed among the locks above.  It’s uncertain whether Singleton will return in time for the tournament, so in the meantime FSU is navigating a relatively easy closing schedule without him.  The Noles are essentially the anti-Boston College, a lockdown team defensively who struggles to score, a situation that will only be exaggerated without Singleton.  Encouraging reports on his status may prove even more important than wins down the stretch for FSU.

Georgia (18-8, 7-5 SEC) – Saturday’s road win at Tennessee moved the Bulldogs to 3-8 against the Top 50 with a road trip to Florida looming on Thursday.  Georgia doesn’t have a bad loss, and if they can at least split away games with Florida and Alabama while taking care of business at home, I don’t see any chance the Bulldogs are left out.

Illinois (17-10, 7-7 Big Ten) – Losses to Illinois-Chicago and Indiana are hard to cover up, and the Illini still have road games left at Ohio State and Purdue.  Based on how they’ve played of late, it’s almost unfathomable that Illinois could win either one.  They do have four Top 50 wins and a solid strength of schedule, so it would likely take losing to either Iowa or Indiana at home for the Illini to play their way out of the tournament.  That can’t be ruled out at this point.

Kansas State (18-9, 6-6 Big 12) – A week ago, the Wildcats had no Top 50 wins, but all that changed last Monday when K-State boatraced Kansas.  It’s too early to say if they’ve truly turned the corner, but their upcoming three-game stretch will provide the answer with games at Nebraska, vs. Missouri, and at Texas.  The Wildcats are 1-5 on the road in league play and can’t afford to lose all three of those contests despite a strong strength of schedule.  Victories over fellow bubble squads Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, Baylor, and Nebraska should prove critical during selection discussions.

Marquette (16-11, 7-7 Big East) – The Golden Eagles have played an astounding 13 games against the RPI Top 25.  The issue is that they’ve only won three of them, and while many of the 10 losses were close, I’m not sure how much that means to the selection committee.  The good news is that such a brutal early schedule leaves them with a few winnable matchups down the stretch.  Marquette travels to UConn Thursday, and if they can win either that one or a home date with Cincinnati, that would seem to get them in barring an inexplicable loss.

Michigan (17-11, 7-8 Big Ten) – This one might be a bit of a stretch, but things will sort themselves out over the final three games against Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State.  The Wolverines stand at 2-8 against the Top 50, but they do have a road win at fellow bubble dweller Clemson.  Based on RPI, their best win is home victory over Harvard, so they probably need to run the table to have a legitimate shot.

Michigan State (15-11, 7-7 Big Ten) – The Spartans split the first two matchups of a four-game stretch against tournament or bubble teams as they work to improve their resume.  Kalin Lucas carried them to a critical win over Illinois on Saturday night to keep hope alive heading into a road date with Minnesota on Tuesday.  MSU does have four Top 50 wins, so a 3-1 finish to the regular season would go a long way toward solidfying a bid.  With the Spartans playing arguably their best basketball of the season, I wouldn’t bet against them.

Minnesota (17-9, 6-8 Big Ten) – The Gophers aren’t trying to play their way in as much as they’re trying to hold onto their spot.  With point guard Al Nolen injured, there is no depth in the backcourt for a team that’s now lost five of its last six.  Two of their three best wins came in November, and much like FSU, injury updates on Nolen will be critical to their case.  The Gophers do finish with three of their last four at home, but with losses to Virginia and Indiana already, they can’t afford any more suspect defeats.

Nebraska (18-8, 6-6 Big 12) – After Saturday’s stunning win over Texas (and equally stunning near-implosion in the final minutes), the Huskers join a crowded bubble.  Losses to Davidson and Texas Tech stand out, but they’ve also knocked off Texas A&M at home and boast one of the nation’s stingiest defenses.  Nebraska finishes with home games against Kansas State and Missouri to go with road trips to Iowa State and Colorado, so the opportunity is there to earn a bid.  Anything less than 3-1 probably won’t be enough.

Tennessee (16-11, 6-6 SEC) – In a year like this, it’s hard to fathom a team with non-conference wins over Pittsburgh and Villanova would be on the bubble, but the Vols have been as mystifying as any team in recent memory.  Home defeats against USC, Oakland, and Charleston along with road losses at Charlotte and Arkansas are the lowlights, and Tennessee has also dropped four of their last five.  Things don’t get easier with a road trip to Vandy on Tuesday, but splitting the final four games would probably get them in given their gaudy strength of schedule.

UCLA (19-8, 10-4 Pac-10) – After a 3-4 start that was capped with a home loss to Montana, the Bruins have responded in a big way.  Sunday night’s overtime loss at Cal snapped a six-game winning streak, but UCLA is still in sole possession of second place in the Pac-10.  Non-conference wins over BYU and St. John’s are their best of the season, and if they can knock off either Arizona or Washington down the stretch, I can’t see them being left out.

Virginia Tech (17-8, 7-5 ACC) – Having a bubble conversation without including Va Tech is like having Christmas without Santa Claus.  Just when it seemed they were getting comfortable, the Hokies lost at Virginia on Saturday.  Their lone Top 50 win came over 50th-rated Florida State, and they’ve now been swept by the aforementioned Cavaliers and also lost to Georgia Tech.  That leaves the Hokies with no margin for error during the final four games of the year (at Wake Forest, vs. Duke, vs. Boston College, at Clemson).  Consequently, there’s still a chance for the annual post-selection show rant from Seth Greenberg.

Washington (18-8, 10-5 Pac-10) – A win at Arizona on Saturday would have moved the Huskies into the lock column, but they’re still in good shape.  Road losses to Oregon and Oregon State are black marks on their profile, but a Top 10 Pomeroy ranking certainly helps their case and makes them a team to watch in March.  After an oddly timed road trip to Seattle, the Huskies finish with three home games, so barring a 1-2 or 0-3 showing there, Washington is safe.

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While the decisions below are questionable, there’s no truth to the rumor that Lunardi also came up with the ridiculous inset coach’s cam used during the Kansas-Kansas State game.

Here’s a quick rundown of things that made me wonder if Joey Brackets’ wife is making him watch Real Housewives instead of basketball.

Virginia Tech as a 10 seed. By my count, the Hokies have one win against a non-bubble team (Florida State).  They’re 1-5 against the RPI Top 50 and have lost to Virginia and Georgia Tech.  I’m not saying they won’t make the field, but a 10 seed?  Somehow Lunardi has them seeded two spots in front of Boston College, who has a higher RPI, significantly better strength of schedule, and an equal record against the Top 50.  And oh yeah, Boston College beat Virginia Tech head to head.

Xavier as an 8 seed. I mentioned Xavier’s seed a couple weeks ago, and while the Musketeers did lose to Charlotte since then, they also picked up road wins at Georgia and Duquesne last week.  Xavier currently ranks 19th in the RPI and is 9-4 against the Top 100.  There is no way in the world Illinois, who Lunardi has as a seven seed, should be slotted ahead of Xavier.  The Illini are 3-6 in their last nine games and rank near 40 in the RPI.  That seeding makes about as much sense as any analysis coming out of Hubert Davis’ mouth.  He also has Washington seeded above the Muskies.  Speaking of which…

The seed of pretty much every Pac-10 team. You’ll get no argument from me that Arizona is playing the best basketball in the league right now.  But a five seed for a team with one Top 50 win, which came over 41st-rated UCLA.   Next up is seventh-seeded Washington.  Yes, the same Washington team who recently dropped road games at Oregon and Oregon State.  And the same Washington team that is a game back of UCLA in conference play, who Joey Brackets has slotted not one, but two seeds lower as a nine.  The Bruins have the same amount of Top 50 wins and have won nine of their last 10 games and 15 of their last 18.

Colorado State not even in the first four out. The Rams don’t have a sparkling resume, so I don’t begrudge him for leaving them out of the field.  However, they do have two wins against the Top 50, and I’d certainly say they have a more compelling case than UAB, who Lunardi has slotted ahead of CSU in the pecking order.  UAB is 0-4 against the Top 50 and has played a weaker schedule.  He’s also got the Rams behind Washington State who is nearly 30 spots lower in the RPI with a woeful SOS.

Utah State as a 9 seed. I realize it seems like I’m constantly railing on the Aggies, but here are the facts: 0-2 against the Top 50, best win is over #100 Long Beach State, and lost to 14-11 Idaho.  Throw in 144th-rated strength of schedule, and that is the resume of one of the 36 best teams in the nation?  If they lose to Saint Mary’s this weekend and don’t win the WAC Tournament, I don’t see how they deserve an at-large.

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The problem is that the applicant pool is fairly weak in the so-called mid-majors as well.  But somebody has to get in, right?

Since I don’t want to make any of the fine editors here at MSF have to read through a breakdown of every bubble team at once, I’m tackling the non-BCS leagues in this installment of “Bubble Boys.”

Here are the locks:

BYU (24-2, 10-1 Mountain West) – Not only do the Cougars have The Jimmer, they also rank second in RPI.  BYU has seven wins against the RPI Top 50, and another win over San Diego St. on February 26 would likely lock up the Mountain West.  Barring a collapse, expect a two or three seed.

San Diego State (25-1, 10-1 Mountain West) – If you’d have told me the Mountain West would have two of the top five teams in the RPI, I’d have said you were crazy.  The Aztecs are the real deal with their lone loss on the road at BYU.  If they can run the table, a two seed is likely.

Xavier (18-6, 9-1 Atlantic 10) – The Musketeers have become a fixture in the NCAA Tournament, and despite a rash of early injuries, this year will be no different.  Xavier picked up two big road wins last week against Georgia, which apparently is a rival according to ESPN, and Duquesne, which gave the Muskies control of the Atlantic 10.

Others in the mix:

Belmont (23-4, 15-1 Atlantic Sun) – If not for a road loss to Lipscomb, the Bruins would have a much more intriguing case for an at-large.  Their other three losses came on the road against Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt, none of which are damning.  However, their schedule strength is abysmal, and they have no wins against the RPI Top 100.

Butler (18-9, 10-5 Horizon) – With five conference losses, it’s tough to see the Bulldogs garnering an at-large bid, but this isn’t exactly a normal season.  They do have four Top 50 wins, but Butler isn’t participating in this weekend’s Bracket Busters event, which will keep them from racking up any others.  They swept Cleveland State, and have a win over Florida State, but losses to Evansville, Youngstown State, and Milwaukee (twice) are resume killers.  Last year’s tournament run shouldn’t play a factor, but it probably holds some cachet with the committee when looking at a RPI of 45 and SOS of 50.

Charleston (19-7, 12-2 Southern) – They have a two-game lead in the SoCon, but they’ll probably need to win the conference tournament to get in.  A road win against Tennessee looks terrific, but two losses to teams outside the RPI Top 150 and a weak schedule more than overshadow it.

Cleveland State (22-5, 11-4 Horizon) – First off, if you didn’t hear about CSU guard Norris Cole’s stat line from Saturday, the 6’2″ Cole poured in 41 points, grabbed 20 boards, and dished out nine assists.  His hair is equally impressive, but that’s a story for another day.  The Vikings started the season 12-0, but a suspect non-conference schedule enabled that gaudy mark.  As it stands, they have one Top 50 win, a road win at conference leader Valparaiso who ranks 49th.  A Bracket Busters win at Old Dominion this weekend is critical for their case.

Coastal Carolina (24-2, 15-0 Big South) – The Chanticleers boast a 22-game winning streak, but the 254th-rated schedule will be their undoing.  Their lone losses came on the road against Charleston and on a neutral floor versus Georgetown, with those also being their only two games against the Top 100.  Still, there’s something to be said for going undefeated in conference play, and I don’t view them all that much differently than Utah State.  More on the Aggies in a few minutes though.

Colorado State (17-7, 7-3 Mountain West) – One of the more important wins of the weekend came when the Rams knocked off New Mexico.  CSU has road wins at UNLV and Southern Miss, but losses to Sam Houston State and Hampton are tough to cover up.  Still, if they can avoid bad losses and pick up one more quality win over UNLV, BYU, or San Diego State, they should be in.

Duquesne (16-7, 8-2 Atlantic 10) – The Dukes have used an easy early schedule in the A-10 to play their way into the conversation.  The problem is that they have just one good win (Temple), and they have just one more chance to beat a tournament-caliber team: the season finale at Richmond.  Losses at Robert Morris and St. Bonaventure are challenging blemishes to conceal.

George Mason (21-5, 13-2 Colonial) – Mason rebounded from early losses to North Carolina State and Wofford to lead the CAA, which has performed well in the tournament the past few years.  The Colonials are now ranked in the RPI Top 25 and have a big week coming up.  They travel to VCU on Tuesday, before a Bracket Busters trip to Northern Iowa, who has struggled since losing Lucas O’Rear to injury.  Sweeping those games would all but assure them of a bid.

Gonzaga (17-9, 7-3 West Coast) – Like Butler, it’s tough to picture the tournament without the Zags, but that is a very real possibility.  They do have a handful of decent wins against Baylor, Marquette, and Xavier, but losses to Santa Clara and San Francisco could leave them on the outside looking in.  A win over Saint Mary’s on February 24 is critical.

Harvard (18-4, 7-1 Ivy) – The Crimson have a home win over Colorado and a road victory against Boston College, which has helped them to the number 44 ranking in the RPI.  While they don’t have any terrible losses, it’s likely Harvard will need to win out in order to go dancing.

Memphis (19-6, 7-3 C-USA) – Conference losses to SMU, Marshall, and Tulsa are a bit puzzling, but given the youth on the Tigers’ roster, they aren’t necessarily shocking.  Memphis may well be the best Conference USA has to offer, but a middling RPI and SOS have left them very little margin for error.

Missouri State (20-6, 12-3 Missouri Valley) – The Bears got off to a 9-1 start in The Valley, but losses to Northern Iowa and Evansville brought them back to the pack.  Thanks to a lack of quality wins and a poor strength of schedule, they probably need to win their final four regular season games, which includes dates with fellow bubble contenders Valparaiso and Wichita State.

New Mexico (17-8, 5-5 Mountain West) – Saturday’s loss to Colorado State has the Lobos hanging on for dear life.  They do have a home win over BYU, but losses to MWC also-rans Wyoming and Utah are flat out ugly.  New Mexico needs to take two of three against San Diego State, UNLV, and BYU to make a legitimate case.

Oakland (18-9, 13-1 Summit) – A brutal non-conference schedule yielded a win over Tennessee but not much else for the Grizzlies.  They’ll likely finish with just one league loss, but a 2-8 record against the Top 100 and the 139th SOS make winning the conference tournament a necessity.

Old Dominion (20-6, 11-4 Colonial) – The Monarchs have been the most highly-touted CAA team, but Saturday’s win at VCU was critical.  ODU also has wins over Xavier, Clemson, and Richmond, which puts them at 28th in the RPI.  If they can lock down Cleveland State on Saturda,y and win their final three league games, ODU should be in good shape.

Princeton (19-4, 7-0 Ivy) – That’s right, the bubble is so weak that two Ivy League teams are in the discussion.  The Tigers have fewer quality wins than Harvard, so it’s unlikely that they could earn an at-large.

Richmond (20-6, 9-2 Atlantic 10) – A neutral court win over Purdue is the gold star on Richmond’s resume.  The Spiders have a favorable conference schedule, with just one game against both Xavier and Temple, but that’s also left them without a ton of good wins.  Thursday’s road date with the Owls provides an opportunity, but I’d be surprised if Richmond got snubbed.

Saint Mary’s (22-4, 10-1 West Coast) – If not for a blowout loss to Portland, the Gaels would likely be a lock.  Their other three losses came on a neutral floor against BYU, as well as on the road versus San Diego State and Vanderbilt, so there’s no shame there.  They’ve beaten St. John’s and Gonzaga, and are ranked 31st in the RPI.  A win over Utah State in the Bracket Busters would seal the deal.

Southern Mississippi (18-6, 7-4 C-USA) – I thought the Golden Eagles had a shot at winning the C-USA title, but if that’s to come to fruition it will need to be a tournament title after Saturday’s loss at Memphis.  Their best win is on the road against UAB, but they’ve lost to a number of other bubble teams, which ultimately will spell their doom.

Temple (19-5, 9-2, Atlantic 10) – If not for a weak strength of schedule, the Owls would be a virtual lock.  They have wins over Georgetown, Maryland, and Georgia without a horrific loss, which is more than most teams can say.  An interesting scheduling quirk sends the owls to Duke on February 23, which should go a long way toward helping that pesky SOS.

UAB (18-6, 8-3 C-USA) – There’s never a good time for an injury, but with Memphis up next, the Blazers could really use the services of Cameron Moore, who nearly averages a double-double.  Moore is out indefinitely after breaking his hand, and even though UAB has a RPI of 34, they really can’t afford another loss.

UNLV (18-7, 6-5 Mountain West) – Despite that unimpressive conference record, the Rebels are in good shape.  Four of those five league losses have come against BYU and San Diego State, and they also have wins over Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Kansas State.  A road win at either Colorado State or New Mexico would certainly help down the stretch.

Utah State (23-3, 12-1 WAC) – The Aggies have some of the nation’s best fans and 23 wins to their name, but unless they beat Saint Mary’s this weekend, I don’t think they deserve an at-large.  Losses at BYU and Georgetown are nothing to be ashamed of, but until Long Beach State moved up to 100th in the RPI, the Aggies had no Top 100 wins.  Nineteen of their victories have come against teams rated outside the Top 150, yet somehow people have them pegged for an at-large instead of Coastal Carolina, despite eerily similar resumes.

UTEP (19-5, 7-2 C-USA) – The Miners are a somewhat suprising leader in Conference USA, but they will likely need to win the conference tournament to go dancing.  Luckily for them, they are hosting the tournament this year.  UTEP is 3-3 against the Top 100, but they have no head-to-head wins over any other their bubble brethren.

Valparaiso (19-7, 11-3 Horizon) – Two wins over the RPI Top 50 are nice for the Crusaders, but two losses to sub-150 teams may ultimately seal their fate.  Still, a win over Missouri State on Saturday, 15 conference wins, and an appearance in the conference title game might make things interesting.

VCU (20-7, 12-3 Colonial) – The Rams have two Top 50 wins and are 5-4 against the Top 100, but they also have three losses to sub-150 squads.  If they can sweep games against George Mason on Tuesday and at Wichita State on Friday, they’ll have a far more compelling case.  A pre-season NIT win over UCLA looks better with each week.

Wichita State (21-5, 12-3 Missouri Valley) – After nearly knocking off Connecticut in the opening round of the Maui Invitational, the Shockers missed out on other chances at marquee wins based on how the tournament played out.  As a result, they’re currently 0-3 against the Top 50 and in a precarious position.  A home date with VCU on Friday presents a terrific opportunity, as does a season-ending road trip to Missouri State.

That was exhausting, so I’ll hit up the major conferences soon.  In the meantime, follow me on Twitter for more of my thoughts on college hoops.