UFC 103 Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Franklin-Belfort & Cro Cop-Dos Santos

UFC 103 Preview: The co-main events

While we await the NFL week 2 matchups on Saturday, we can treat ourselves to some exciting UFC action. UFC 103 lacks title fights but its two main events feature big boys who swing for the fences. Forget Mayweather-Marquez; Franklin/Belfort and Cro Cop/Dos Santos will give you more bang for your buck.

CATCHWEIGHT BOUT (195 lbs)

Rich Franklin (25-4) vs Vitor Belfort (18-8)

UFC 103 fight card odds: Franklin -155, Belfort +125

After four years away from the Octagon, power puncher Vitor Belfort makes his highly anticipated return. He broke into the UFC over a decade ago as a teenager, earning the moniker “The Phenom” because of his vicious knockout ability. He rose to prominence and battled legends like Randy Couture, Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz, though he came out the loser in almost all those fights. The former UFC light heavyweight champ spent the last four years destroying lesser-known fighters and has looked particularly strong since dropping to 185 pounds.

He’ll have a tough opponent in the reliable, entertaining Rich Franklin. The former UFC middleweight champ throws opponents off with his southpaw stance and has true knockout power. His submission defense is outstanding and his great fitness helps him outlast opponents. His only losses are to Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Dan Henderson; Franklin is an elite fighter.

Though Belfort’s power makes him intimidating, he hasn’t fought anyone relevant for years. He’ll be rusty against the smart, energetic Franklin. Go with the more battle-ready fighter in your sports picks.

Pick: Rich Franklin

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (25-6-2) vs Junior Dos Santos (8-1)

UFC 103 fight card odds: Filipovic +110, Dos Santos -140

To longtime fight fans, Mirko Cro Cop is a heavyweight legend, widely considered the best pure striker ever in his weight class. In his heyday, he was known for brutal head-kick knockouts and beat star fighters like Josh Barnett, Mark Coleman and Wanderlei Silva. New UFC fans, however, aren’t impressed with what they’ve seen since Cro Cop joined the UFC. Now 35, he’s just 2-2 in the Octagon and most famous for getting knocked out by a Gabriel Gonzaga kick. After a two-year absence, he’s anxious to prove he can still contend.

I’m betting management of the UFC wants a Cro Cop victory for the sake of the sport, but Junior Dos Santos has something to say about that. The up-and-comer has major knockout power, never having fought into round two. Cro Cop has outstanding takedown defense but Dos Santos has the ground advantage if he gets Cro Cop down thanks to his purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

As is the case with Belfort, we should make Cro Cop earn back our trust. Bet on powerful Dos Santos, who is capable of ending the fight quickly.

Pick: Junior Dos Santos

Brock Lesnar: Is the Former “Next Big Thing” Now the Face of MMA?

Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) has quickly become one of the most popular sports on the planet. In fact, it’s the fastest growing sport in popularity at the moment. Some of the more popular hosts of this up and coming sport are The UFC, WEC, and EXC.

As the sport grows in popularity, fans demand an image. Basketball has seen guys like Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Kobe, and LeBron. Football has boasted poster-boys such as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in recent times.

So who is, or may become, the face of MMA?

Follow the link to StubHub for great deals on UFC tickets

True MMA loyalists may say Fedor Emilenenko. While I would agree that pound-for-pound he may be the best fighter in MMA, he has yet to join the bandwagon of what has become the juggernaut of MMA, The UFC.

So, looking at the talent that seems to ooze from the UFC, who could it possibly be?

How about a guy who after just 4 professional fights was given a shot at, and won, the UFC Heavyweight Title?

That Guy is Brock Lesnar.

Brock was an All-American wrestler in his college days at Minnesota, and transformed himself quickly into what became one of the most popular wrestlers in Vince McMahon’s version of Motley Crue’s White Trash Circus, the WWE. He was “crowned” the youngest champion in WWE history, and given  the nickname “The Next Big Thing”.

But Lesnar walked away from the WWE in 2004 for a short stint in the NFL as a lineman for the Minnesota Vikings. After being cut before the end of the preseason, Lesnar contemplated his next move, eventually turning to MMA.

His first UFC fight pitted him against UFC headliner Frank Mir, Heavyweight Champion, in the UFC. He came out firing, but inexperience took over as Frank Mir would eventually submit him with a knee bar in the first round.

Lesnar would bounce back quickly, defeating Heath Herring and Randy Couture, securing himself a rematch against Frank Mir at UFC 100, this time for Mir’s title.

Lesnar learned from his mistakes in his first bout with Mir, and would control Mir on the ground, eventually securing a win via TKO. Lesnar was the champ after only four fights in the UFC.

He then made a string of controversial comments and gestures: flipping off the crowd, talking trash to Mir, mentioning that he may even “get on top of his wife” later that evening, and putting the cherry on top by denouncing the main sponsor for UFC 100, Bud Light, by saying “they won’t pay me nothin’” then proceding to promote his sponsor, Coors Light. Lesnar would later apologize for his actions.

Here’s the point: agree or disagree, Brock Lesnar has become the face of the UFC, and in turn, the face of MMA. Whether you love him or hate him, that’s the point. He’s young, He’s exciting. He’s controversial. Don’t expect any of that to change any time soon.

Everyone knows who he is, and whether he is liked or not does not matter. This truly makes Brock Lesnar — already The Next Big Thing — the face of MMA.

UFC 102 Preview: Odds and Predictions for Couture-Nogueira and Silva-Jardine

The UFC 102 fight card that will take place next weekend is being touted by some MMA betting fans as being a much better card than UFC 100 or 101, and the main bouts are being headlined by the fighters who are 205 pounds and over.

UFC 102 Odds – Saturday, August 29, 10:00 PM ET

Randy Couture (16-9) vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1-1)

This heavyweight bout features two of the legendary fighters in MMA history, and both are coming off losses. Couture is a -180 favorite despite losing his belt to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91, but that was a bad fight for him as Lesnar was too big for the “Natural” to control with his wrestling skill. Nogueira was beaten by Frank Mir at UFC 91 for the interim heavyweight title, but it was revealed that “Minotauro” had a staph infection which hospitalized him in the run-in to the fight. That, combined with being a +150 underdog, should be more than enough motivation for Nogueira to prove that he’s still a draw in the UFC. If you’re a betting management player, take Nogueira in the upset pick.

Thiago Silva (13-1) vs Keith Jardine (14-5-1)

Silva is coming off a loss to Lyoto Machida in a match for Machida’s light-heavyweight belt, as he was knocked out just before the end of the first round. Jardine, as known as the “Dean of Mean”, has lost three of his last five fights, but he can’t be counted out. Jardine has racked up wins over guys like Chuck Liddell, Brandon Vera and Forrest Griffin, which is the only reason I can come with for him being a -160 favorite against Silva, who will be hungry to make his way back up the 205-pound ladder after losing to Machida. He has devastating power, as 10 of his 13 wins have come by knockout, and he’s well versed in the ways of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai. Jardine is in an unfamiliar spot as a favorite, and that could stand to hurt him in the long run. Go with Thiago Silva as a +130 underdog in your UFC sports picks next weekend.

MMA Betting – Carano, Cyborg are first women to headline a major fight promotion

[Editor's Note: This post was submitted to me by our good friends at Bet Online while I was on vacation last week so I was not able to get it up before Saturday's event. As you will read, the guys were a tad off with their prediction as Cyborg took down Gina Carano.  But on a week when Y.E. Yang proved everyone wrong, we can let one little prediction slip-up slide.]

 NFL betting fans or other sports lovers in general would traditionally scoff if we told them the most exciting sporting event of the weekend was not a football game, not a baseball game, perhaps not even the PGA Championship, but a women’s MMA title fight. But it’s the truth. In an historic Strikeforce fight card this Saturday, Gina Carano and Chris “Cyborg” Santos will become the first women to headline a major MMA promotion. Let’s break down the big fight.

 WOMEN’S CHAMPIONSHIP

Gina Carano (7-0) vs Christiane “Cyborg” Santos (7-1)

Betting online odds: Carano +145, Santos -175

Gina Carano is famous for more than just MMA. After appearing as “Crush” on American Gladiators and posing in a racy Maxim spread, she’s earned more fans that your average fighter. However, her fame shouldn’t trick anyone into believing she isn’t the best female fighter in the world right now. This ain’t Anna Kournikova.

Carano is the total package – a true technician who combines surgical strikes with a capable ground game and the ability to submit opponents if need be. How surprising is it, then, to see her as the underdog against Cyborg Santos?

The odds may be related to fear – fear of what Cyborg can do if she lands even one clean shot. She’s a wrecking machine, having brutally knocked out five opponents in her seven wins. She combines the brawling style and heart of Forrest Griffin with the raw power and aggression of fellow Brazilian Wanderlei Silva. She’s also the bigger fighter in this title bout; she has at least an inch on Carano and reportedly walks around about 20 pounds heavier.

It’s thus understandable that the physically imposing Santos is the favorite. But that doesn’t mean you should pick her if you’re sports betting online. If true mixed martial artists like Gracie and St-Pierre have taught us anything, it’s that technique and intelligence trump strength. Carano is the faster, smarter, more versatile fighter. Cyborg will do damage if her punches connect, but what if they don’t? Carano can pick her apart and score points with accurate flurries.

On the ground, Carano may have the advantage too. She’s proven that she doesn’t have to stand up to win fights; she choked out Tonya Evinger at an EliteXC event in 2007. Cyborg, on the other hand, isn’t used to battling on the canvas and her only loss came via submission in her MMA debut.

The fight will clearly be Gina Carano’s toughest test yet and her undefeated streak could end if Cyborg corners her. But I think she’s more likely to outclass Cyborg and become the first Strikeforce women’s champion.

Best betting management pick: Gina Carano +145

UFC 101 Preview: Silva-Griffin, KenFlo-Penn Odds and Predictions

UFC 101 is about to hit and there are two huge fights about to happen.  Here is the when and where:

• UFC 101 Date: Saturday, August 8th, 2009
• UFC 101 Location: Philadelphia, PA at the Wachovia Center
• UFC 101 Time: 7:00 PM ET
• UFC 101 TV: Live on Pay-Per View

This is one of the UFC events where the “main event” is nowhere near as interesting as the secondary fight.  However, the “main event” is the top of the card so the “main event” will be previewed first.

“The Prodigy” BJ Penn (Lightweight Champion) (-240) Vs. Kenny Florian (+190)

The “main event” of the evening will see, possibly, the most gifted fighter in the UFC – BJ Penn – take on a man who works his ass off  – Kenny Florian.  KenFlo hasn’t lost a fight in almost 3 years.  Penn is coming off of the most one-sided fight in his life, a demoralizing ass kicking at the hands of Georges St-Pierre.

Word on the street is that Penn has left his hometown of Hilo, Hawaii and has started training with a group of people he hasn’t been bullying since birth.  They say he has started actually working to be great instead of relying on his God-given ability to be the best with minimal effort. 

If that is true then getting his ass handed to him by GSP was the best thing that could have ever happened to Penn and we could be about to see him make a run for the title of best fighter of the modern age.  The man has ridiculous natural dexterity, his BJJ is outstanding, and he posses knockout power befitting a light heavyweight.   Despite all of that, his heart has never been in training and his conditioning has always suffered as a result.

Kenny Florian posses a great jiu-jitsu game himself and may be able to take Penn down.  His elbows have been described as “razor like” and he has never been accused of under-training for a fight.  KenFlo also is an anchor on ESPN’s “MMA Live” .  He will gameplan for Penn and work toward his strengths.  His conditioning will be excellent and his spirit will be willing. 

The big question in this fight is whether you value natural ability or hard work.  Penn is great at jumping out of pools and carrying rocks at the bottom of the ocean, but he seems to not be so great at working hard.  Florian works hard every day, but is that enough?

My Pick: BJ Penn Submission Rd 2

Anderson “The Spyder” Silva (Middleweight Champion) (-350) Vs. Forrest Griffin (+250)

Years ago I went to a pro-wrestling event (listen up, story time with the old man right now).  An old favorite of mine and of most of the people at the event (Terry Funk) was wrestling in a barbed wire match.  During this match he got up on a ladder which most of the audience had noticed had been severly damaged and Mr. Funk had not seemed to notice this fact.  As he climbed, step by step, the ladder started giving way.  The crowd started chanting “Please Don’t Die” over and over again.  Thankfully Funk didn’t die and we were able to meet the man after the match.

I tell this story because it is how I felt when the match was announced.  In my mind I was transported back to that day at the ECW Arena when we chanted “Please Don’t Die”, only this time I was saying it for Forrest. 

Anderson Silva is a freak of nature.  While he has taken a lot of heat lately for having “boring” fights, the fact of the matter is no one has been able to touch him.  It isn’t his job to go after the challenger and engage them.  His job is to win, and he has done so. 

In his last 3 fights (one of which was at 205lbs, which is where this fight will be contested) I don’t think he has been touched once.  His ground skills are great, his standup is amazing, and his gameplan is always impeccable.  Silva is undefeated in his UFC run and is the most successful of the former PRIDE fighters to make the transition (though Rampage isn’t doing too badly, other then the mental breakdown).

Forrest Griffin is one of everyone’s favorite fighters.  He’s an engaging person, a never-say-quit fighter, and a former Light Heavyweight Champion.  The man possesses a solid ground game, a solid stand-up game, great take-down defense, and one of the best chins in the history of the sport (I still give him benefit of the doubt after the Rashad Evens KO). 

Griffin has never been one to finish a fight, but he almost always finds a way to win a fight.  His fight at the Ultimate Fighter Season 1 finale against Stephen Bonner ushered in a whole era for the sport of MMA.  It is really too bad most of this doesn’t matter.  Griffin is a guy you never want to count out, and he is a guy you want to hang out with, but I see no way he wins this fight.

Forrest is gonna push Silva.  He wont allow Anderson to pick and choose his shots, but I am not sure that will be enough for my man.  It is with great sadness and a heavy heart I pick:

My Pick: Anderson Silva KO Rd. 2

Plenty Of Tasty Appetizers On UFC 100 Menu

A lot of people who examine UFC fight cards – not the UFC 100 fight card in particular – seem to complain that there is usually one or two big fights worth watching and then there is a slew of just so-so tilts.

That’s not that case at the UFC’s 100th anniversary of events. Dana White is making a big splash and a big statement – particularly to the boxing world – that UFC is deep enough to boast a card of tantalizing fights from start to finish. While we all know about the Frank Mir-Brock Lesnar, George St. Pierre-Thiago Alves, Michael Bisping-Dan Henderson breakdowns, here’s a look at some of the lesser fights on the UFC 100 odds and some predictions.

Paulo Thiago versus Jon Fitch

Fitch is basically the biggest favorite on the entire evening as the UFC odds makers are not expecting him to slip up against Thiago.

Fitch is a -410 favorite and Jon “Bones” Jones and George St. Pierre are next in line.

Fitch is a very good wrestler and he’ll be looking to take Thiago to the ground from the get-go. That’s bad news for Thiago, who doesn’t match up well in that realm.

Sports pick: Fitch

Mark Coleman versus Stephan Bonnar

How old is Mark Coleman? Put it this way: he fought in UFC 10 and is now set to fight at UFC 100. He’s lasted 90 UFC events and is one of the few athletes in all of sports that is both in the Hall of Fame and is still participating.

He’s a popular fighter but he’ll be up against a tough, savvy, desperate veteran in Stephan Bonnar. Bonnar has a tough chin and he knows that another loss would mean bad news for him in the UFC. Look for him to scrap out a tough win.

Coleman looked completely wiped by the second round of his January bout with Shogun Rua, which might mean that Coleman doesn’t even have it in him to last three rounds.

Jake O’Brien versus Jon Jones

We mentioned that Jones is one of the biggest favorites on the fight card and I’m betting management set this up as a showcase for their 21-year-old star.

Jake O’Brien is basically just a stepping stone for Jones. Jones is heading to bigger and better things and this is just another win for him.

UFC 100 Preview: The Title Fights

Wimbledon betting may excite some sports fans, but there’s another breed of sports fan that finds tennis a bit too tame. That kind of sports fan is probably tossing and turning at night, anxiously awaiting UFC 100. The spectacular event features two title fights. Odds are already up, so it’s not too early to preview the epic battles.

HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs Frank Mir (12-3)
UFC odds: -225, Mir +185

The wait for the big rematch is almost over. What makes Lesnar/Mir II so interesting is that both fighters have evolved so much since their last bout that the rematch may as well feature two different fighters. Lesnar is a new-age mixed martial artist – not just a “guy who likes to fight” or a skilled competitor in one discipline who learns a few extra skills. He’s an athlete, one who learns at a seemingly geometric rate and seemingly can do whatever he wants to. From collegiate wrestling champ, to WWE superstar, to NFL roster member, to interim UFC heavyweight champion, Lesnar is a ridiculous physical specimen. He has tremendous wrestling ability and punching power and is slowly but surely developing his ground defense.

He’ll need that against Frank Mir, one of the heavyweight division’s best Jiu-JItsu specialists. It’s no secret that Mir is great on the ground – he proved that when he submitted Lesnar in their first meeting – but Mir is more dangerous now because he’s added strong boxing to his repertoire. No one saw his upset of Minotauro Nogueira coming; Mir’s surprisingly technical boxing helped him become the first man to knock out Nogueira.

Since this fight is so tough to call based on skills, athleticism is the tiebreaker. If Lesnar’s ground game keeps improving, he’s virtually unstoppable; no one can physically dominate him and it’s a tall order to knock him out. He’ll overpower Mir and become the undisputed champ.

Pick: Brock Lesnar

WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Georges St-Pierre (18-2) vs Thiago Alves (22-4)
UFC odds: St-Pierre -260, Alves +200

The welterweight title fight seems like a mismatch to some fight fans making sports predictions, but don’t be so sure. Challenger Thiago Alves has one thing GSP has never faced before: raw striking power. St-Pierre, considered by some the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, had his chin called into question when Matt Serra – not a hard hitter – famously upset him in their first bout. As great as GSP is, all his notable victims – Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, Jon Fitch, to name a few – are known more for their ground work than heavy hands.

Thiago “the Pit-bull” Alves thus poses a new challenge for the champ. With his aggression and deadly Muay Thai knees and kicks, Alves can knock opponents out at any time. On the flip side, St-Pierre is among the best strikers in the sport too. He can just as easily drop Alves and he’s far superior on the ground. St-Pierre, a true champ, also prepares for fights like no one else. He’ll be ready for anything Alves throws his way and you can bet he’ll have a set gameplan entering the fight.

Anything can happen and GSP won’t have an easy time, but he’ll still pull out a victory. Going against him is poor betting management.

Pick: Georges St-Pierre

UFC 99 Betting Preview: Main Card, Date, Location, Odds & Predictions

UFC betting is reaching a fever pitch with UFC 100 coming up next month, but first, UFC 99 takes place this Saturday in Cologne, Germany.

Here are the particulars, via the UFC 99 page on Wikipedia:

UFC 99 Preview

• UFC 99 Date: Saturday, June 13, 2009
• UFC 99 Location: Cologne, Germany
• UFC 99 TV: Pay Per View

UFC 99 Main Card:

• Catchweight: Rick Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva
• Heavyweight: Cheick Kongo vs Cain Velasquez
• Welterweight: Mike Swick vs Ben Saunders
• Welterweight: Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy
• Lightweight: Spencer Fisher vs Caol Uno
• Heavyweight: Mostapha Al-turk vs Mirko Filipovic

(Follow the link to view the UFC 99 preliminary card.)

Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva are the headliners for the UFC’s first trip to Germany, but there are also a couple of other MMA betting bouts to consider in your offshore sportsbook.

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RICH FRANKLIN VS WANDERLEI SILVA ODDS AND PREDICTION

Franklin (24-4-0-1), the former middleweight champ, is a slight -140 sports wagering favorite against Silva (22-9-1-1), who has lost four of his last five fights. This will be held at a catchweight of 195 pounds, where Franklin will have a reach advantage but Silva may have a power edge. Franklin is coming off a split-decision loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 93, which was his first loss to an American as his three previous losses had come at the hands of Brazilian fighters (two to Anderson Silva, one to Lyoto Machida). Silva will surely come out swinging for the fences, while Franklin will do the same, but he has an edge on the ground as well.

Franklin-Silva UFC 99 Prediction: Rich Franklin. He’s more well-rounded and Silva has lost a step.



CAIN VELASQUEZ VS CHEICK KONGO ODDS AND PREDICTION

Cain Velasquez (5-0) is a -200 favorite in your sportsbook against Cheick Kongo (14-4-1), and the 26-year-old Velasquez is one of the top up-and-comers in MMA, as all five of his fights have come by knockout, four of which came in the first round. Both of these fighters have extreme knockout power, and it’s difficult to imagine this fight going more than two rounds. Kongo replaces Heath Herring, who beat Kongo at UFC 82, and if he manages to beat Velasquez, he’ll fight the winner of the Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir heavyweight title bout which takes place at UFC 100.

Velasquez-Kongo UFC 99 Prediction: Cheick Kongo. Velasquez will be a star but he’s not ready to face a fighter of Kongo’s caliber.

MIKE SWICK VS BEN SAUNDERS ODDS AND PREDICTION

Mike Swick (13-2) is the UFC betting favorite for this welterweight tilt at -225 over Ben Saunders (7-0-2), and both are known for appearing on the “Ultimate Fighter” television show. Swick won his fight in the first UF season, dropping Alex Schoenauer after 20 seconds to earn the nickname “Quick.” Saunders defeated Dan Barrera in the sixth UF season, and he’s improved each fight since joining UFC. Both have kickboxing backgrounds, while Swick has more power, but Saunders is more well-rounded. If he can get Swick on the ground, Saunders could be in line for a UFC betting upset.

Swick-Saunders UFC 99 Prediction: Ben Saunders. This could be a big step in a special career.

UFC 97 Redemption: Preview, Odds, Picks and Predictions

After a few “down” months in UFC betting, the excitement cranks up over the next few months. The next big card is this Saturday’s UFC 97 odds, during which a title will be on the line for the first time since early February. In this post we will break down all the important sportsbook matchups in the event.

First, all of the particulars for UFC 97 Redemption:

UFC 97 Redemption Preview, Date, Time, Location, Tickets

• UFC 97 Date: April 18, 2009
• UFC 97 Time: 10:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm PT
• UFC 97 TV / viewing information: PPV Live | UFC 97 Viewing Info
• UFC 97 Location: Centre Bell, Canada
• UFC 97 Official Website: UFC 97 Redemption
• UFC 97 Lineup: UFC 97 Redemption Fight Card
• Official UFC 97 description: UFC® middleweight champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva returns to the Octagonâ„¢ on Saturday, April 18th to defend his crown against number one contender Thales Leites in the main event of UFC® 97. The pound for pound king has already defended his title more times than anyone in UFC middleweight history and will battle Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Leites – winner of five in a row.
• UFC Tickets at StubHub: Buy and Sell Tickets to all UFC Events
• UFC 97 Tickets at StubHub: Buy and Sell UFC 97 Redemption Tickets

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UFC 97 Redemption Matchups, Odds, and Predictions

ANDERSON SILVA (23-4) VS THALES LEITES (14-1) – For UFC Middleweight Championship
Silva odds: -500
Leites odds: +350

The Silva vs Leites line is one of the most lopsided for a title fight in recent memory, and with good reason. Anderson “The Spider” Silva has been positively untouchable since winning the middleweight title off Rich Franklin, defending four times and finishing each fight before it could go to a decision. Some sports betting fans were perplexed by Silva’s last fight against Patrick Cote, during which he danced around the ring without really going on the offensive before Cote succumbed to a knee injury.

MMA betting fans should give Silva a mulligan on the Cote fight; his Muay Thai skills remain devastating and he ground game is very solid, which is important considering that challenger Thales Leites excels in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Silva will have to be careful on the ground, but this fight still won’t be close; Leites hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence in his UF C betting career, unless you count a split-decision victory over Nate Marquardt in which Marquardt was deducted two points for illegal blows.

Online betting pick: Silva -500

CHUCK LIDDELL (21-6) VS MAURICIO RUA (17-3)
Liddell odds: -175
Rua odds: +145

It may be do or die for both fighters in the Liddell vs Rua odds. Liddell is 39 and has lost three of his last four fights; among those defeats were brutal knockouts at the hands of “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans. The Iceman has had a phenomenal career in MMA betting, but he’s nearing the end of the road. Could one more loss push him into retirement?

“Shogun” Rua is just 27 but he’s on the bubble too. Though immensely talented, he was out of shape and sluggish in his last fight, during which he eked out a final-round knockout over 44-year-old Mark Coleman. Dana White is questioning Rua’s dedication to the sport and there are whispers that Rua will be handed his walking papers if he doesn’t show up for this one.

According to some MMA betting pundits, Rua has rededicated himself and trained hard for this fight, which is horrible news for Liddell. Chuck has lost a step and he’ll be in over his head against an in-shape Rua, whose vicious strike combinations should overwhelm him. Bet on Rua, who offers nice value as a sportsbook “underdog” here.

Online betting pick: Rua +145

CHEICK KONGO (23-4-1) VS ANTONI HARDONK (8-4)
Kongo odds: -300
Hardonk odds: +240

This battle of gargantuan kickboxers should be a barn burner. Kongo’s UFC betting career sagged for a year or two, but the powerful Frenchman is back in a big way. He’s the more experienced fighter and, if he can avoid Hardonk’s deadly leg kicks and get close, should take him down and ground-and-pound Hardonk into oblivion. Go with the seasoned Kongo.

Online betting pick: Kongo -300

OTHER FIGHTS TO BET ON IN THE UFC 97 ODDS

Nate Quarry and Jason McDonald are two evenly matched, athletic fighters with strong ground skills, but Quarry is the more versatile fighter. Look for him to stay standing and try and knock out McDonald. David Loiseau and his trademark elbows return to UFC betting after a three-year absence; he should succeed in his return with a win over Ed Herman.

MMA Roundup: UFC 96 Preview, UFC 98 Mir-Lesnar Bout Canceled

While UFC 96 is a mere hours away, the big news surrounds May’s UFC 98. It has been reported that the Frank Mir v Brock Lesnar Heavyweight Title unification bout has been canceled. There are conflicting reports of a knee or back injury. (Update: See comment section for update.) Either way it is Frank Mir who has to pull out of this fight. It’s unclear weither UFC officials will replace Mir or if Brock will be pulled completely off the card.

As mentioned above, this match was to unify the Heavyweight title Lesnar had won from Randy “The Natural” Coture at UFC 91 last November, and the Interm Heavyweight Title Mir won from Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in December at UFC 92. Mir’s upset victory not only garnered him that interim title, but it added heat to the unification bout since he defeated Lesnar in the first round of his UFC debut.

Now to more immediate info.

UFC 96 is live this Saturday on PPV. As has been my duty in the past, I’m going to give you a look into the money lines, the backgrounds, and my feelings on a few of the fights. First lets his the specifics:

UFC 96 Live on Pay-Per-View, Saturday March 7th, 10pm est. All lines courtesy of BetUs.com.

Quintin “Rampage” Jackson (-350) v Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (+250)

The top fight on this event will see one of my all time favorites take on one of the ugliest men in the business. Rampage has been up and down over the last year. He lost the Light-Heavy title to Forrest Griffin, decided to stop eating and sleeping for a week, went for a highly publicized drive that resulted in injuries and damages to other people and their cars, fired his trainer, and joined a new camp in England. After all of that he still found it in him to turn out the lights on Wanderlei Silva and win the Knockout of the Night award back at UFC 92 in December. It’s rumored if Rampage wins, his next fight will be to reclaim the Light-Heavy title against a surging Rashad Evans.

There isn’t a lot of nice things I have to say about Keith Jardine. He has never wronged me personally and I haven’t met him. As a fighter I just don’t like him.

He is a guy who fights up to the talent level of whoever he’s fighting. That tells me he is lazy. He’s beaten both Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but during this span he has also lost to a failing Wanderlei Silva (who placed one hand on Keith’s neck and used the other to punch him ugly) and a worthless Houston Alexander.

What I am saying is Keith wins fights he should lose and loses fights he should win. His best bet at beating Rampage is by using leg kicks and hoping he can cause the same type damage Forrest Griffin did against Jackson.

My Pick: Rampage via KO in the First.

Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga (-160) V. Shane Carwin (+130)

This is a fight I want to watch. I have no idea what is going to happen in it, but we have one guy in Gonzaga who has the ability to have really fun bouts, and we have a guy in Carwin who is something of an up and comer. Gonzaga has a two-fight win streak going, and both have been dominate. That being said Fabrico Wedum and Randy Couture both TKO’ed him not that long ago.

Shane Carwin is someone I don’t know much about. I have watched his fights without ever really remembering him, of course that probably speaks more to my alcohol consumption then to his memorability. What I have learned about Carwin is that he is a wrestler by nature and he looks like he belongs in the WWE. Most importantly, he has never had to go out of the first round to get a win.

I don’t see it being out of the realm of reasonability that, with Mir out, this becomes a #1 contenders match. Whoever wins gets a shot at Lesnar at 98? I know it’s a bit of a stretch, but it would help the UFC add some last minute heat to a PPV which is seriously lacking buzz.

Just for you the reader, as I was finishing this article I happened across an interview with both Gonzaga and Carwin. It is because of this interview I am changing my prediction:

My Pick: Gonzaga via armbar in the second

Outside of these two fights, there isn’t a whole lot for me to add to this prediction. The actual PPV card is a bit weak for the UFC. Sure the Pete Sell Vs. Matt Brown match could turn into a slug fest, but neither man will turn into a title contender by winning. I am personally hoping to see Matt “The Hammer” Hamill drop to the new comer Mark Muno, but that is solely based on the fact Muno trains with Urijah Faber.

What is probably the most interesting fight on this card is the Brandon Vera v Michael Patt. It’s not interesting because of the matchup, but because Vera is within one loss of becoming a sports cautionary tale. He spent a year in a contract holdout to make huge money, pissed people off, got what he wanted, came back and hasn’t been impressive at all since. If Vira looses this fight, he will have gone from main event-caliber name to a pink slip in less then a year. After having watched the fighters weigh in, Patt looks like the town drunk, but Vera looked like he was already beaten. I wont be suprised if this goes to a decision or if Vera looses via TKO.

UFC 96 – Rampage Jackson v Jardine: Preview, Odds, and Predictions

UFC 96 Quick Preview:

• Date: March 7, 2009
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• TV Schedule: Live on Pay-Per-View
• Location: Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio
• UFC 96 Headline Fight: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson v Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine
• UFC 96 Main Card Fights: Shane Carwin v Gabriel Gonzaga (Heavyweight); Matt Brown v Pete Sell (Welterweight); Matt Hamill v Mark Munoz (Light Heavyweight); Gray Maynard v Jim Miller (Lightweight)
• MSF UFC 96 Preview by Plough

UFC 96 betting is upon us, which means it’s time to start doing some handicapping and picking. While the last UFC took place in front of a rowdy crowd in London, England, UFC 96 will feature a blue-collar, raucous crowd in Columbus, Ohio. The main card everyone is excited about is the Quinton “Rampage” Jackson skirmish with Keith Jardine. Many people want to see how Jackson responds after his first big win since having some legal problems outside the octagon.

Without further ado, here are the UFC 96 picks along with some analysis:

Jackson vs Jardine line: Jackson -300

Rampage Jackson squares of with the Dean of Mean in the UFC 96 main event in what should be an absolute brawl. Rampage had an interesting year in 2008 but, as most sports betting fans know, the last thing seen is the most remembered. The last outing we saw from Rampage was stepping into the octagon as an underdog against Wanderlei Silva and knocking him out.

Rampage had a lot of personal problems which appear to be in the past. He was an underdog against Silva for many reasons but one of them was because those who bet on UFC just weren’t sure where his head was.

Now he’s focused and now he’s motivated. He should take care of business with Jardine.

UFC 96 betting pick: Jackson -300

Gonzaga vs Carwin line: Gonzaga -200

Gonzaga is typically a Cinderella when it comes to March Madness betting but this Gonzaga is a -200 in a heavyweight fight against Shane Carwin at UFC 96. Carwin has been perfect in his 10 fights with five wins by knockout and five by submission.

Carwin has fought some cupcakes in his time but now he’s taking a step up in competition. Gabriel Gonzaga will bring the heat and really put some pressure on Carwin with kicks and punches right from the get-go.

Carwin is a big underdog but he has shown that he has plenty of skill. No opponent he’s faced has made it out of the first round so don’t be surprised if Carwin takes this bout at UFC 96.

UFC 96 betting pick: Carwin +160

Hamill vs Munoz line: Hamill -200

Odds on UFC 96 have Hamill favored to beat Mark Munoz and hand him his first defeat. Munoz is 5-0 so far but he is very much a no-name fighter yet to be tested by anyone with credentials.

Hamill is a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter 3 but he has struggled to find consistency in the UFC. He hasn’t won back-to-back bouts since March 2007, going 2-2 in his last four fights.

For Munoz, this will be his UFC debut and, generally, new fighters have a tough time. This isn’t the stiffest challenge he could face but it’s one that will likely cause his first loss.

UFC 96 betting pick: Hamill -200

UFC 95 Preview, Predictions, and Odds

Another UFC card is just days away and, as we all get set for a cup of tea and fish ‘n’ chips in London, let’s do a quick preview of the date, time, and TV schedule and then do some UFC 95 picks:

UFC 95 Quick Preview:

• Date: February 21, 2009
• Time: 9:00 PM ET
• TV: Spike TV
• Event Type: International Event
• Location: O2 Arena in London, England

Dan Hardy vs Rory Markham
UFC 95 odds: -115 both ways

Markham and Hardy will go toe to toe on Saturday as both fighters are big boppers. It doesn’t figure to last long, though, since they like to fight on their feet and swing for the fences.

Hardy will be the hometown favorite as UFC 95 is in London and Hardy is from Nottingham. Look for him to use the crowd momentum and get the win.

UFC 95 picks: Hardy -115

Chael Sonnen vs Demian Maia
UFC 95 odds: Maia -280

Chael Sonnen is in tough against Brazilian up-and-comer Demian Maia. Sonnen doesn’t have the power to knock Maia out, which means he doesn’t have much of a shot winning this fight standing.

Sonnen is known as a wrestler, but Maia is known as an even better submissions specialist. That means that Sonnen doesn’t have an advantage on the ground either.

Maia is just perfectly tailored to beat Sonnen, which means he has to be the pick here.

UFC 95 picks: Maia -280

Nathan Marquardt vs Wilson Gouveia
UFC 95 odds: Marquardt -280

This bout figures to be an entertaining one as Marquardt and Gouveia are both big finishers. Marquardt has an edge in experience and he’s stepped up his training this year, which might make you want to lean with him.

But at the end of the day, there isn’t a whole lot between these two fighters except for the odds. For a fight that might be a coin toss – or where Marquardt has a small edge – I wouldn’t want to lay nearly 3-to-1. For value, I’ll take a shot with Gouveia.

UFC 95 picks: Gouveia +220

Josh Koscheck vs Paulo Thiago
UFC 95 odds: Koscheck -550

Josh Koscheck is the biggest favorite on the UFC 95 card and that’s not because Paulo Thiago is a bad fighter; he’s just an unknown commodity. Thiago is actually 10-0 but this will be his first UFC fight and he’s going up against a very seasoned veteran.

Seven of Thiago’s 10 wins have been by submission but, as long as Koscheck stays on his feet, he should take care of business. It’s hard to lay -550, though, especially when we don’t know a whole lot about what Thiago is capable of.

UFC 95 picks: Koscheck -550

Diego Sanchez vs Joe Stevenson
UFC 95 odds: Sanchez -300

“Daddy” Joe Stevenson has been pummeled in his last couple of fights but it’s not like he’s lost to losers. He lost to Kenny Florian and B.J. Penn. Stevenson comes into this fight as a fairly big underdog but the public shouldn’t be this down on him.

Sanchez presents a very big challenge for Stevenson but it’s nothing he isn’t capable of handling. Stevenson is the more experienced fighter here and Sanchez is dropping a weight class, which could have an unexpected effect.

The value on Stevenson is just too good to pass up considering this fight could be a tossup.

UFC 95 picks: Stevenson +240

UFC 94 Recap: The Aftermath

It’s in the books, UFC94 is done and over. BJ Penn, Nate Diaz, Stephen Bonnar, and Thiago Silva are all scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened. I went 1-2 on my picks and finally hit an upset special. Here’s my quick review.

Starting at the top:

GSP defeated BJ Penn Via Stoppage.

GSP dominated this fight. After watching these two mix it up, it almost seems silly that anyone ever doubted GSP. The only thing Penn showed us in this fight is that he can take a beating, then have his brother throw in the towel. This was 1 round of feeling out and then 3 rounds of dominance. Two questions now remain: 1) How does BJ Penn respond to this beating and 2) Do we now get to see GSP fight Anderson Silva?

The answer to the first question has already started to be answered as BJ’s camp has filed a formal complaint with the Nevada State Athletic Comission over GSP’s corner adding Vaseline to his back in between rounds 1 and 2. As Dana White put it “some Vaseline on a guy’s back didn’t change the outcome of that fight, but you don’t do it.”

Lets hope that UFC continues its tradition of giving us fans what we want and talks Anderson Silva into going down in weight, or GSP into going up in weight so we can finally see who the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world really is (no offense meant toward Fedor).

Next we will look at Jon “Bones” Jones defeating “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar Via Decision

I used their ring names because I love them both for different reasons. Bonnar has the best in MMA, and Jones may have the worst. Therefore I am quite fond of them both.

Jones dominated the first and second round of this fight. He showed aggressiveness and the ability to throw a sick spinning elbow (pictured). “Bones” gassed out in the third, but by that point all he had to do was keep from getting knocked out or submitted.

Bonnar is still good, but he needs to really work to catch up to his TUF 1 opponent Forrest Griffin. Joe Rogan mentioned he is now training at Extreme Couture and that will help him in the future, but if he wants to keep in the mix at 205 he really needs a convincing victory soon.

Now onto the fights I missed:

Lyoto Machida defeated Thiago Silva via KO

Yes you read that right. Lyoto KO’ed my pick Silva. This fight went the way I thought it would with Silva trying to be aggressive against Lyoto’s bait and counter style. That being said, I never thought that Lyoto would be so efficient. He knocked Silva silly two times before finishing him off. All it took was a picture perfect foot sweep followed by a fist to the face on his way to the mat with one second left in the first round. When the bell sounded Lyoto got up to walk to his corner and Silva laid motionless. It was an awkward KO and a surprising one given Lyotos penchant for winning by decision. I could be wrong about Lyoto… maybe he is good.

Clay Guida defeated Nate Diaz Via Split Decision

So, due to me working late last night, and not being able to find this fight online, I haven’t seen it yet. I can only assume that Nate Diaz made some profaine gestures then cussed at Clay a bunch. Guida was forced to start swinging his arms like the Tasmanian Devil until one shot hit Nate in the face and they then went to the mat. Now I’ll say Nate again flipped the bird at Guida while Guida was in Nate’s guard. Guida then began to smother Diaz with his curly locks of hair. This went on for 3 rounds. One judge was impressed at Diaz’s ability to keep his brother from jumping into the ring and starting a scuffle, so he gave the fight to Nate. The other two judges were enamored with Guida’s ability to use his hair as a weapon, so they gave it to him. I’ll also assume that after the fight Stocton’s favorite sons, The Diaz Brothers, gave big props to their home town then went on call out fighters who are still under contract to Elite XC.

As mentioned above, I missed the rest of the show, so here is a list of the rest of the fights:

Matt Arroyo defeated Dan Cramer Via Split Decision

Jake O’Brien defeated Christian Wellisch Via Split Decision

John Howard defeated Chris Wilson Via Split Decision

Thiago Tavares defeated Manny Gamburyan Via Decision

Jon Fitch defeated Akihiro Gono Via Decision

Karo Parisyan defeated Dong Hyun Kim Via Split Decision

UFC 94: St-Pierre v Penn 2 – Preview, Predictions, and Lines

Ladies and gentlemen it’s finally here.

After three weeks of hype, two weeks of underwhelming PPV’s, and a lucky punch by Fedor, we have now come to UFC 94: St-Pierre Vs. Penn 2. Now I’m going to take a moment and let you all know my predictions have been off the last few months. I have gone a total 2-5 since picking for this site and am 0-2 on my upset specials. This has not only hurt my pride but also my check book.

A quick breakdown of the particulars:

• What: UFC 94: St-Pierre v Penn
• When: Saturday, January 31 at 10:00 PM ET
• Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
• TV: PPV – $44.95 ($54.95 if you want HD)

Let’s start this preview at the top:

Georges St-Pierre ( Welterweight Champion) -185 Vs. BJ Penn (Lightweight Champion) +130

This is one of the most anticipated rematches in UFC history. It has all the makings of a true blood feud. St-Pierre and Penn legitimately dislike each other, their first fight was won on a split decision, and both men are current UFC champions.

If you look at common opponents both men have fought Sean Sherk, Matt Hughes, and Matt Serra. They both beat Sean Sherk by TKO, so no advantage there. They have both beaten Matt Serra, but Penn did it in his first try (decision). St-Pierre got unlucky in their first fight and lost to a TKO, but followed it up with a dominate TKO victory in the rematch. I have to give Penn the advantage there.

Things get interesting as we look at Matt Hughes. Penn submitted a near his prime Hughes in ‘04, but then got TKO’ed to a past his prime Hughes in ‘06. St-Pierre was submitted by a near his prime Hughes in ‘04 and then submitted a past his prime Hughes in ‘07. I think St-Pierre gets this one because losing to Hughes in ‘04 isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but losing to him in ‘06, via TKO no less, is probably a bit of a blemish. While on the subject of Hughes, Saturday night will be the 5 year anniversary of Penn’s win.

The first match between Penn and St-Pierre was a split decision that saw St-Pierre win, but a split decision isn’t much to go off of. Looking at common opponents also wont give you much. I say go with your gut. Mine says St-Pierre wins. He works harder then Penn, seems to take his career more seriously then Penn, and he scares me more then Penn. All that being said, this fight could really go either way. Both are solid standing up and on the ground, both have a blood lust, and both are insanely competitive. I think Penn’s ego gets in his way and St-Pierresomehow pulls it out in the 2nd.. lets say by submission.

My Pick: Georges St-Pierre

What do you think?

Who will win?

• Penn
• St-Pierre

View Results

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Lyoto Machida -265 Vs. Thiago Silva +200

I’m telling you right now, this will be an upset (but not my special). Both of these fighters stand undefeated with a record of 13-0. It’s my opinion the only reason Lyoto is favored so heavily is because he beat Tito Ortiz. The truth of the matter is that Lyoto won that fight by running away from Tito. He didn’t really land any shots and only seemed to have an advantage once in the fight. He also almost gave up a triangle to Tito (a man not known for his submission skills). Loyto has won 4 of his 5 UFC fights by decision.

On the other hand you have Thiago Silva. He has won all 4 of his UFC fights by TKO or submission. I don’t think he will let Lyoto run away from him like Tito and others have. Most importantly, Thiago is freaking scary man! I’ve seen all 4 of his UFC fights and he has been dominate. I say this is a first round TKO for Silva

MY Pick: Thiago Silva

Stephan Bonnar -185 Vs. Jon Jones +154

We all know and love “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar. His Ultimate Fighter 1 main event against Forrest Griffin helped to cement the UFC as Americas next big sport. He never backs down and he can take a crap load of punishment. We all always pull for the guy, but he hasn’t fought in the UFC since October of 2007 and he is 31 years old. The clock is ticking on Bonnar.

Jon Jones appears to be an up and comer, he’s only 21 and has a record of 7-0. That could be deceiving though as only one of his fights have come in the octagon.

This seems like a developmental fight to me. If Jones loses it wont hurt his stock because Bonnar is a known name with a fan base and a guy who’s only UFC losses come at the hands of the current and former Light Heavy Champions (Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin). Yet, if he wins it is a upset victory and the UFC has the beginnings of a new star.

I don’t know enough about Jones to predict how this fight will go, but I get the feeling someone in the UFC may have decided to groom this guy. I will choose this as my upset special.

My Pick: Jon “Bones” Jones

Nate Diaz -130 Vs. Clay Guida EVEN

If you’re anything like me, chances are you think Nate and his brother Nick are both a waste of talent. Nate isn’t as bad as Nick, but the simple relation to him makes me hope that Clay justifies the way this line has been moving for the last 2 weeks.

I have no horse in this race, and I don’t know much about Clay Guida, but I want to see Nate Diaz loose. That being said, I pick him to win. He may be a mess as a person, but he has talent. It also doesn’t hurt that the few times I have seen Clay in action he has been inconsistent.

My Pick: Nate Diaz

UFC 93: Short Review for Lame Event

It’s my opinion UFC 93 doesn’t warrant it’s own article space, but it’s my job so here are a few notes on the evenings main events.

The PPV was the first UFC event I can remember that made me fell it was a wast of money. I am sure others feel differently, but I just cant handle so many judges decisions (3) and the just plan sloppy fights (Coleman Rua).

Hendo won a solid fight against Rich Franklin. It was one of the nights judges decisions (split decision) and it saw a Henderson headbutt open a gash on Franklin’s noggin then, with about 35 seconds left in the fight, Hendo poked Franklin in the eye. It wasn’t a bad fight but it wasn’t as good as I had expected. Final note on this fight, Franklin completely wore down Henderson. That is no small feat, Henderson is used to fighting in Pride where the first round was 10 minutes. Franklin may not be the best conditioned fighter in all of the UFC.

Now, on the opposite side of conditioning we have Coleman and Rua. In my preview article I picked Coleman to win by KO. I said Rua’s conditioning would come into play and I thought Coleman would land a KO blow or get a ground and pound victory. The match played out %99 the way I said it would, that final %1 I missed was Rua’s TKO on Coleman. For the record Coleman should not fight again, he was just as gassed as Rua.

My record since joining this site continues to suck. I went 1-1 on my picks bringing me to a combined 2-4 so far and 0-2 on my upset picks (Lytle was my upset pick. I don’t think I made that clear). At least I was right that Lytle and “The Irish Hand Grenade” won the fight of the night.

Here is to hoping that UFC 94 is a better event.