A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
By the time you read this, the Super Bowl will be over, and the sports world will finally be able to turn more of its attention to college hoops.
A terrific Kansas-Missouri game on Saturday night provided a springboard into “Rivalry Week,” which features a number of intriguing matchups.
Before that tips off though, here are this week’s power rankings.
It sounds a bit odd to say this, but last week was relatively tame in the college hoops world since “only” nine teams in the Top 25 lost. Even so, there are no new teams in this week’s edition of my power rankings, just some jostling of positions.
Saturday was arguably the best day of college basketball so far this season, as a pair of Top Five sqauds squared off, the top-ranked team went down, and a buzzer-beater ended a lengthy home winning streak just to name a few of the notable happenings.
And as usual, that led to plenty of shakeups in this week’s Top 25.
After yet another week where nearly half of the Top 25 suffered at least one loss, the exercise of putting together my latest power rankings has proven to be challenging once again.
The middle of the list has proven to be a complete mess, but since road wins have been so tough to come by, there are some teams that actually stayed put or even moved up despite losing.
Things can change quickly at this stage of the season. At least that’s the explanation I’m using for the performances of a few of my “stock up” teams from last week.
The ACC now has 13 losses, Cal got dumptrucked by Missouri, Long Beach State lost immediately following their signature win, and Memphis went 1-2 in Maui just to name a few.
The possibility also exists that I am the kiss of death, so to fans of this week’s “stock up” teams, consider yourselves warned.
With so many great games this week in college football it was hard to pick a game of the week, so instead the focus is on a game that upset written all over it.
#4 Oklahoma State is taking their fast paced offense on the road to Columbia, Missouri where the Tigers have won 10 straight at home. This current winning streak has included victories over some of the top teams in the Big 12 and none was bigger than last season’s upset victory over #1 Oklahoma. Many people think Oklahoma State is going to stroll into their final game undefeated, but this game has the potential to ruin the Cowboys’ perfect season.
Here is why the Missouri Tigers will upset the Oklahoma State Cowboys. [Read more...]
Tonight’s college football marquee matchup has the Missouri Tigers headed to the desert in a showdown with Arizona State Sun Devils. Missouri comes into this game ranked #21 in the AP poll, while Arizona State is one of the favorites to win the Pac 12 South Division this season.
Both teams won their season opener in two completely different types of games. Missouri won a close one against Miami of Ohio (2010 MAC Champions) and Arizona State won big against UC Davis.
This game has upset written all over it as Vegas odds makers have the unranked Arizona State Sun Devils as 7.5 point favorites in this matchup. [Read more...]
Since Texas A&M announced its intention to leave the Big XII Conference, the conventional wisdom is that the conference will not survive much longer.
(For a complete timeline of the events that led to the Big XII’s current state, click here.)
Colorado and Nebraska left last year; and rumors that the SEC will go after Missouri or that the Oklahoma schools will bolt for the Pac 12/14 never seem to go away. Both the Big Ten and Pac 12 have long coveted Texas, and the Big East has suggested that it would welcome the four schools from the former Big XII North.
But is the Big XII really as doomed as everyone seems to think it is?
Yesterday at Grantland, New York Times Magazine editor Chris Sullentrop took readers to Kansas City to explain why the NBA doesn’t want Kansas City and why Kansas City doesn’t want the NBA, despite building the 19,000-seat Sprint Center to lure a pro basketball team.
The article includes this footnote:
Though as a Kansan, I am trying to be mean to Missouri, even though I went to journalism school there. In Kansas City, collegiate rooting affiliations are bound by blood and soil, not matriculation. I root for the Tigers in journalism and for the Jayhawks in everything else.
I don’t understand. This approach to rooting affiliations is contrary to everything I know, understand, and believe about college sports fandom.
Photo credit: Nick Krug via LJWorld.com
Blood? Perhaps Suellentrop has inherited chromosomes from KU grads, but his blood spent four years in Columbia, Missouri. Why defer to ancestry? Would you root for your parents’ high school against your own? Soil? Living on the Kansas side of the border requires or compels one to be a Jayhawks fan? What about K-State? What about Wichita State? The Suellentrop family tax dollars found their way to Manhattan and Wichita as surely as they did Lawrence.
From birth until age 18, I was as big an Indiana Hoosiers fan as any of my peers. My dad graduated from IU and dressed me in cream and crimson during my formative years. The two of us spent several evenings each season in the balcony at Assembly Hall and many more watching promising Indiana recruits such as Greg Graham and Alan Henderson play high school ball.
from the UE bookstore
On my nineteenth birthday, I moved into the Hughes Hall dormitory on the campus of the University of Evansville. I was no longer an Indiana Hoosiers fan. I was an Evansville Purple Aces fan. It wasn’t an easy adjustment. Like Indiana, Evansville has five national championship banners hanging in its basketball arena, but UE’s banners are for the Division II titles the Aces won between 1959 and 1971. Unlike Indiana, Evansville hangs banners for NIT appearances. Indiana, for all its faults on the gridiron, plays football in the Big Ten. Evansville eliminated its football program during my junior year. Indiana has won 7 NCAA men’s soccer championships and 6 NCAA men’s swimming championships. Evansville hasn’t won any of either.
But Evansville was my school. It’s where I spent four of the most important years of my life; where I first encountered the Internet; where I won intramural championships in floor hockey, kickball, and C-league basketball; and where I met my wife. I take pride in knowing that I graduated from the same college as Jerry Sloan, Kenneth the Page from 30 Rock, and True Blood‘s Rutina Wesley. (Rutina Wesley was in my voice class. She is a much better singer than I.)
I identify with the University of Evansville. It’s a part of me. Therefore I cheer with “pep and vim” for the Aces. That’s how being a college sports fan works, right? You cheer for your school.
In 1996 Evansville and Indiana met at Madison Square Garden in the semi-finals of the Preseason NIT. Evansville led for much of the second half but lost the game on an Andrae Patterson buzzer beater. I was crushed. No part of me felt good for Indiana. In that moment, I loathed every one of my friends who was enrolled at IU-Bloomington. I wanted nothing to do with any of them. That’s how being a college sports fan works, right?
After Evansville I went to Divinity School at Vanderbilt, and Vandy took the number-two slot on my college-sports-rooting-affiliation list. Since beginning my post-secondary education, Evansville has made only one NCAA Tournament appearance (in 1999 they lost to Kansas in a first-round 6-11 matchup; I was there) and Vanderbilt has played in only one bowl game (they beat Boston College in the 2008 Music City Bowl). Between them, Evansville and Vanderbilt have won exactly one NCAA Division I championship: Vandy, women’s bowling, 2005.
But it doesn’t matter, because they’re my schools.
I have an Ace Purple bobblehead on my desk. I look forward to evenings when I can watch Evansville’s basketball team play on ESPN3.com or Vanderbilt’s baseball team play on regular ESPN. I was proud when the Purple Aces beat Hofstra in this year’s CIT and won’t pass up this opportunity to remind you that Evansville beat Butler at Hinkle last season. And in 2005 I watched Vandy take down Maryland Eastern Shore for that women’s bowling title. (It was on ESPN2.)
I still follow Indiana basketball, and I hope that Indiana will soon reclaim its place as a top ten college hoops program. But Indiana isn’t my school. And Kansas isn’t Chris Suellentrop’s school. I don’t care if the Jayhawks have a bigger trophy case or better fans or a richer tradition than their rivals to the east.
If you are a Mizzou grad, the Tigers are your team. Embrace them. Complain about the fifth down game. Reminisce about the Steve Stipanovich days. Look forward to Blaine Gabbert’s NFL career and wonder aloud if Chase Daniel will ever get a chance to be a starter.
Having said that, I now give you the worst hit song that Brian Wilson ever wrote:
Schools can be eliminated or demoted due to rivalries with schools higher on the list. For example, I have cousins who graduated from Drake and Illinois State, two of Evansville’s Missouri Valley Conference peers. So Drake and Illinois State are off my list, at least during MVC play.
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Josh Tinley is the author of Kneeling in the End Zone: Spiritual Lessons From the World of Sports. Follow him at twitter.com/joshtinley or send him an e-mail.
I believe it was Bon Jovi that sang/asked, “Who says you can’t go home?” In the case of Matt Painter, it may be more like, “Who says you can’t leave home.”
Rumors have steadily intensified over the last few days that Painter was the #1 choice of Missouri to replace the departed Mike Anderson as its head basketball coach. I laughed off the rumors at first, considering them absurd. Painter grew up in Indiana, played at Purdue, coached there under Gene Keady, and has rebuilt Purdue from rubble into one of the top teams in the Big Team. Why the heck would he leave?
Well I’m not laughing off the rumors anymore, and neither should Purdue fans. In fact, it’s time to get very, very worried if you don the old gold and black.
From Vahe Gregorian at STLToday.com:
Purdue coach Matt Painter will meet with Mizzou soon to gauge the school’s commitment to the basketball program, sources told the Post-Dispatch today.
A resolution to the Painter situation will likely be Wednesday. One source said it was better than a 50 percent chance that Painter would accept an offer.
Purdue fans, all together now: *GULP*.
If you decide to go with my picks I have a few rules, and both are equally important:
This is the time of the year when you make your money. Vegas is not sure how certain teams are going to perform, how new players are going to react to certain situations, and who will be the new stars emerge across the country.
And for the record, I only play the big games, the games you will see on TV (which you can find out at the MSF college football TV schedule). Â Thus, I will not be giving picks on North Texas vs. some other cream puff.
We have a theme this week, so let’s begin.
Game #1 I love; actually, I love all four of the gems I’m going to give you, but I like this game the most.
Follow the link or click the image below to get great deals on college football tickets at StubHub.
Boise St vs. Oregon
The oddsmakers have Boise State favored in this game by 3.5 with the over-under at a whopping 64. I don’t believe either team will have many stops in this game and I expect the over to be in full effect. With that being said, Boise State is at home, it’s the first BIG game of the NCAA year, and oh by the way it’s on a Thursday night.
Folks, for starters, Boise State does not lose many home games, I can probably count on one hand how many losses they have had at home over the past five years. Boise State also has the experience, with 90% of their players having started a game last year. Oregon can’t match that experience, which is HUGE in the beginning of the season.
What does this game mean for Boise State? Well, if they win tomorrow night you might as well pencil them in to BCS Bowl, and maybe even a national championship. For Oregon, this game means a lot, but nowhere near what it means to the Broncos. Oregon did not have this game circled on their schedule as they had Cal, Oregon State, and USC.
Go with the Boise State and give the points.
Georgia at Oklahoma State
Game #2 is Georgia at Oklahoma State. Will Georgia be able to stop the high powered offense of the Cowboys? Oklahoma State has some key players like Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant, who just so happens to be my projected #1 wide receiver in the country.
Georgia, on the other hand, has some players, but when the game is close who are they going to turn to? No Matthew Stafford, and no Knowshon Moreno.
Like the previous game, this game means a lot to Oklahoma State. This will be on Saturday night, on ABC, and the country will be watching. Oklahoma State has added seats for this year, so this will be the largest amount of fans to attend an Oklahoma State football game.
Georgia, well they need to worry about the SEC, so this game again means a lot but nowhere near what it means to the Cowboys. Oh and by the way, when was the last time Georgia traveled outside of their time zone?
Give the 5 and count your cash.
Missouri at Illinois
Game #3 has Illinois giving 7 to Mizzou. I will keep this one quick, short, and to the point.
Mizzou lost everyone, Illinois has not. Gone for the Tigers are Chase Daniels, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman. Mizzou had a great run, but they don’t reload like the top teams in the country do.
Illinois, on the other hand, returns quarterback Juice Williams. He had a great year last year, but still flew under the radar. He will be throwing the rock all day to up-and-coming stud Arrelious Benn. This is a home game for the fighting Illini and they have returning starters.
Give the points as Mizzou can’t stay up with the Illini like Ron Zook can stay up on his skis.
Virginia Tech vs Alabama
Game #4 is Virginia Tech vs. Alabama. The line in this game is 6.5. When I first saw this I almost jumped out of my chair. My first thought was there wasn’t going to be 6.5 points scored the whole game, not that I am advocating the under over in this game, but it just seems like a lot to give Virginia Tech, team with more firepower than the Crimson Tide.
Alabama over it’s past two games has been destroyed, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Nick Saban is sweating tonight thinking about the game on Saturday. I like Tyrod Taylor, and I think he is a playmaker, something Alabama doesn’t have many of on the offensive side of the ball.
Take the Hookies and take the points.
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Keep your eye out for Rich’s next column here at MSF, and you can also follow his blog at http://www.nflandcollegefootball.com/.
* – Ron Zook skiing photo credit: Deadspin
Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:
- March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
- MSF Bracket Challenge
- Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
- Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- History of Final Four in Indianapolis
- Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets
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This post will analyze the UConn-Missouri Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
One of these two teams I expected to get this far. The other one not so much. One of these teams was my championship pick on my original bracket. The other team I had getting bounced in round two.
So you would think that this would be an easy prediction right?
Wrong.
The horse I decided to ride all the way through the brackets to the championship was UConn. I didn’t necessarily “decide” on them, per se, as much as I was led to picking them because of the bracket picking system I devised. Still, I wasn’t too upset or surprised. UConn is a very good team that is extremely strong at point guard and center. The loss of Jerome Dyson certainly hurt, but this appeared like a team with enough juice to go all the way.
And I still think they can. But I’m a little worried.
All of the hubbub over the investigation into potential recruiting violations has to be a distraction. It obviously did not affect them too much against Purdue, but it might start to as the story gains steam. Maybe it won’t affect the team as much as it will Jim Calhoun, but I think UConn needs their fiery coach at his best to navigate through the defensive scheme and intensity of Missouri.
Which brings me to the real reason I’m worried: Missouri is a damn good team. I underestimated them in the Big 12 Tournament. I underestimated them in the NCAA Tournament, and now here they are, ready to play for a shot at the first Final Four in school history.
Let’s outline the particulars of the game and then we’ll jump right into a prediction.
Before I offer my own first impressions and prediction for this game, let’s see how Game Predictor views the action, based on the same five statistical categories we used to analyze the Sweet 16 games.
Other than the significant advantage for UConn in terms of defensive field goal percentage, these two teams are very evenly matched across these five categories. My anticipation is that UConn will be a slight favorite by Game Predictor based on the SOS and higher seed (and I base this on the results of the Sweet 16 predictions). Let’s see:
So a relatively solid vote of confidence for UConn, at least for an Elite 8 game where each team should be pretty evenly matched. Here the issues though:
Still, I can’t abandon the Huskies. Not yet anyway.
I really like this Missouri team. They obviously play a very frenetic style of defense and an up-tempo style, yet they have an impeccable Assist/TO ratio. Additionally, they have scoring balance on offense. All five 
starters scored in double figures against Memphis with JT Tiller leading the way with 23. Plus, the duo of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons is outstanding. They had a combined 32 points and 18 rebounds against a Memphis team with a strong presence inside. This bodes well for their ability to compete against the inside presence of Hasheem Thabeet.
But, I am not going to get carried away yet and jump two-feet first onto the Missouri bandwagon. Yes, they had an impressive win over Marquette; but it was against a Marquette team playing with a hobbled Dominic James. And after jumping out to a big lead they had to hang on late. Their win over Memphis was obviously impressive as well; but I have not been a believer in Memphis all year so I am not ready to anoint them West Region champs simply because of that victory. And just like in the Marquette game, Missouri displayed an inability to shut the door by letting Memphis back into the game late — though they never relinquished the lead.
The fact of the matter is that a week ago, I would not have thought twice about who to pick in this game. After how well Missouri has played over the last three weeks, they have given me plenty of reasons to pause long and hard and consider their chances.
At the end of the day though, I am a sucker for experienced backcourts and teams that can control the paint defensive. UConn is led by a player I love, senior AJ Price, and his senior backcourt teammate Craig Austrie. And, of course, they have Hasheem Thabeet down low who has proven all year, and did again last night against Purdue, that if he stays out of foul trouble he is an absolute beast and gives UConn a huge advantage 
against every team in American that does not have a 7’3 center with great defensive timing — which is pretty much every team in America.
This is a fascinating game between two outstanding teams with plenty of compelling storylines to go around. In the end, this game will come down to what most UConn games come down to: can Hasheem Thabeet stay on the floor and can UConn get enough scoring from their backcourt. UConn beat Purdue because Thabeet played 36 minutes, grabbed 15 rebounds, scored 15 points, and controlled the paint with 4 blocks. UConn also got 32 points from Price and Austrie on 9-21 shooting, plus 11 assists against only 4 turnovers from the duo. If these three guys produce like that against Missouri, UConn will win.
But if Thabeet gets in foul trouble, or Price and Austrie get out of their comfort zone against the Tigers’ D, Missouri has a great chance to win. Mix in the prospect of the Huskies being distracted as a result of the recruiting violation story, and the game gets ever so close to being a complete toss-up in my mind — and I start to think that Missouri may even be the “safer” pick.
There are lots of variables on the UConn side, but they are also the better team when they are at their best. I’m not ready to say that I am still 100% committed to them as the eventual national champions, but I am willing to say that they’ll at least reach the Final Four. Missouri will put up a great fight, and UConn better be ready. I think they will be. I like Missouri with the points (assuming the spread stays at 5, and I’ve only seen it listed on ESPN), but UConn to win straight up. And I can’t wait to see how this one actually unfolds once the ball is tipped.
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Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN
This post will analyze the Memphis-Missouri game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
If John Calipari were to have read MSF over the past couple of weeks, he would know that I was n
ot among those who thought Memphis should have received a #1 seed and that I picked the Tigers to lose in the second round. (And I predicted that loss to come against Cal, who lost in the first round to Maryland. Shows you how much I know.)
Of course, John Calipari has plenty of more important things to do than read our little blog here. On the off chance he did, he would probably just chalk our site up as another one of the haters and naysayers and not give it a second thought. Calipari is a pretty cool customer who does not seem to get rattled or frustrated in the face of people constantly doubting his team, or disparaging its conference and schedule.
Now, if John Chaney read MSF and I had been down on Temple, he might not be such a cool customer…
Forgive me, I had to get that in there. It’s been years since I’ve seen that video, but it never gets old. If only we could have seen how the fight ended up…
But I digress. 
Mike Anderson, the coach of Missouri, would probably not think much of this site either. I picked the Tigers to lose in the Big 12 tournament and I predicted a second round loss for them against Marquette. Obviously, neither happened.
So it is with great shame, humility, and surprise that I type this Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 preview. I did not expect either team to make it this far, yet here they are: my own personal bracket busters duking it out to ensure that I cannot have a perfect Elite 8 this year.
But you know what? I can’t wait for this game. These two teams play an entertaining style of basketball that should make this one of the more exciting Sweet 16 games this year. Here are the particulars for the Mizzou-Memphis matchup later this week:
Let’s see how the Bracket Predictor sees this game going, based on the five statistical categories I submitted to the prediction engine:
And based on these numbers, plus the strength of schedule factor that is automatically used to calculate the results, the Game Predictor sees the outcome as follows:
So, the Game Predictor sees this as being a closer matchup than UConn-Purdue and Pitt-Xavier, which one would expect. I am still a little bit surprised that Memphis’ odds are above 60%, and I completely agree that Missouri has a great chance to beat the spread in this one — if not win it outright.
Here is what I did not like about the Game Predictor analysis of this one: the historical comparisons (not shown in the images above). The majority of the teams Missouri was compared to were double-digit seeds. I don’t know exactly how these historical comparisons are generated, but the typical seed differentials of the ten comparisons provided was 6 or 7 seed slots. This game is a #2 seed versus a #3 seed, and two teams that I think are very, very comparable. Luckily, the final projection anticipates a close game that I project to be even closer.
Missouri plays a fast style of basketball, attacking on both ends of the court. I was shocked to see that their Assist/TO ratio is as good as it is. Obviously that number is driven by their great ability to pressure teams into turnovers; but it shows a strong ability on their part to protect the ball as well. Their high offensive rating shows that they are able to turn the majority of those turnovers into points.
Memphis, on the other hand, is not quite as strong in either category but still in the top 15% or so in the nation in both. And their defensive numbers are outstanding, with the best defensive efficiency and defensive field goal % ratings in the nation. My apologies to Coach Cal and the Memphis Tigers: I underestimated your ability on defense, otherwise I just might have had you advancing this far, if not further.
At the end of the day, I look at this game as a toss-up. Tyreke Evans has really improved Memphis as he has become more comfortable controlling the basketball as the season has gone on. He leads the
team in points at 16.6 per game and also grabs 5.4 rebounds per. However, he also turns it over 3.6 times per game, only generating an Assist/TO ratio of 1.1/1. Antonio Anderson has been much more steady, with an Assist/TO of 2/1. Against the Missouri press, Evans will have to take better care of the basketball.
For Missouri, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons must continue to lead with excellent all-around play from the forward slots. If the Tigers can get a performance out of Matt Lawrence like they got against Marquette (16 points) it will make them that much more difficult to overcome.
My gut is still telling me that Missouri is going to win, but obviously the Game Predictor, using the stats I fed it, has a 3 Star confidence level on Memphis. Either way, one of these teams is going to surprise me by making it to the Elite 8, only to have me (most likely) pick against them on Saturday. Luckily for Memphis and Missouri, the opinions of some idiot blogger mean nothing and they have been able to prove their worth on the court.
When these two skilled, athletic, well-coached teams meet up on Thursday, it could very well provide the most exciting game of the weekend.
Unless you picked neither to be here and your bracket is toast.
Then it’s just depressing.
Tyreke Evans photo credit: AP Photo/Nick Wass
Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN
The March Madness odds continue and it’s hard to believe we’re already down to just 16 teams. Here’s what we know so far: (a) Cleveland State’s win over Wake Forest is the upset of the tournament right now; (b) Blake Griffin is justifying his projected NBA No. 1 overall draft pick status; (c) President Obama’s Final Four remains intact; and (d) some major bad karma should follow Missouri into the Sweet 16 odds.
Let’s break down what should be an extremely tight round of March Madness betting. (Editor’s note: All picks are straight up, not against the spread. Go to the homepage and check out the recent game-by-game posts for a closer look at how to pick these games against the spread.)
EAST REGION
No. 1 Pittsburgh Panthers vs No. 4 Xavier Musketeers
Xavier is like the plucky little kid trying to measure up to his older brother in this NCAA basketball betting matchup. What do the Musketeers do best? Play defense and rebound like crazy. They showed off those skills in the first two rounds of the tournament, totally stymieing Wisconsin in the round of 32 after shooting the lights out against Portland State.
Problem: Pittsburgh battles the same way Xavier does and does it better. While the Musketeers are fifth in the nation in rebounding, the Panthers are second. Pittsburgh will eke out a win here thanks to superior backcourt talent with Levance Fields leading the way alongside outstanding big man DeJuan Blair.
Online betting pick: Pittsburgh
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 3 Villanova Wildcats
Playing in the powerful Big East, Villanova has flown under the radar for much of the season. This weekend, the Wildcats be outed as major contenders when they knock off the Blue Devils. Duke’s overreliance on perimeter shooting doesn’t bode well against the defensively sound Villanova. Expect the Wildcats to control the pace and reach the Elite 8.
Online betting pick: Villanova
SOUTH REGION
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs
There aren’t too many “pretenders†left in the March Madness betting field, but Gonzaga is close. Yeah, the Bulldogs put up some points against Akron and Western Kentucky, but those were No. 13 and No. 12 seeds, respectively. Gonzaga barely survived those matchups, coming from behind to beat Akron and downing Western Kentucky with a last-second shot.
Jumping from that competition to No. 1 North Carolina, still the odds-on sportsbook favorite to win the March Madness odds, will be too much for the ’Zags to handle. The Tar Heels should drop major points on the Bulldogs in a high-scoring affair here. Bet on North Carolina, who should keep getting better with Ty Lawson regaining his form.
Online betting pick: North Carolina
No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners vs No. 3 Syracuse Orange
It’s Blake Griffin Versus the World in what could be the closest of all the Sweet 16 lines. Well, maybe that’s an overstatement, but the point is that Griffin has been the force of the Tournament so far, averaging 30.5 points and 15 rebounds. Is Syracuse up to the task after breezing through the first two rounds?
I say yes. The Orange are a potent offensive unit with well-distributed scoring; five different Orange players averaged 10 or more points per game this regular season. The Orange offense can top Griffin’s inevitable powerhouse performance and guard Jonny Flynn has been sensational. Bet on Syracuse to pull off what some online betting experts would call a minor upset.
Online betting pick: Syracuse
WEST REGION
No. 1 Connecticut Huskies vs No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers
So, uh…Connecticut did pretty well in its first two March Madness betting contests, averaging a 46-point victory margin. Does that mean the Huskies are extremely sharp or extremely untested? Only time will tell. What we do know is that Purdue enters the Sweet 16 nicely battle-hardened, being the only No. 5 seed to avoid the dreaded 5/12 loss and grinding out a tough win over Washington. Center JaJuan Johnson in particular has stepped up his play and will need to maintain that high standard against UConn.
It’s tempting to pick Purdue to pull off the sportsbook upset here, but UConn sure isn’t getting much respect for a No. 1 seed. Better to have the Huskies surprise you with a loss than to pick the No. 5 seed and kick yourself afterwards. Go with Connecticut until they prove you wrong.
Online betting pick: Connecticut
No. 2 Memphis Tigers vs No. 3 Missouri Tigers
It just doesn’t feel right picking Missouri. For one, J.T. Tiller’s convenient last-second injury, which allowed Kim English to shoot the game-winning free throws in his place, seemed shady. Missouri also got pretty darn lucky when Marquette’s Lazar Hayward blew the game by stepping on the baseline during an inbound.
Karma aside, Memphis is still be better of the two March Madness picks here. It got its major scare out of the way in the first round and should ride its outstanding defense to the Elite 8 and maybe the Final Four.
Online betting pick: Memphis
MIDWEST REGION
No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 12 Arizona Wildcats
Like them or not, the Arizona Cardinals have impressed in the March Madness odds after many detractors felt they shouldn’t have qualified for the tournament at all. Many online betting sharps correctly predicted their upset over Utah in the first round and they had the lucky draw of No. 13 Cleveland State in the second round, so the Wildcats haven’t really been tested.
Louisville, the top overall seed in the tourney, won’t be like anything the Wildcats have faced so far. This may be the only Sweet 16 betting matchup with blow-out potential.
Online betting pick: Louisville
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks
Still feels weird to see Michigan State seeded higher than Kansas, doesn’t it? Most basketball betting fans didn’t expect much from Kansas in its attempted national title defense after the Jayhawks lost all their starters from last year’s team. However, they’ve looked very impressive early, riding the torrid play of Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins.
A couple of weeks ago, Michigan State would have been the consensus sportsbook pick here, but the Spartans had their hands full with USC and may not have an answer if Aldrich does anything close to the triple-double he posted against Dayton. Bet on Kansas to win one more round.
Online betting pick: Kansas
First off, I have to say how disappointed I was with the outcome of Mizzou’s Big 12 Championship match-up with Oklahoma. To lose is one thing but to lose that convincingly is another. I mean seriously, OU dominated every facet of the game from the beginning to the end.
There were spells during the game that it felt like Mizzou might actually get something going but then OU would make an adjustment and immediately shut things down. On the flip side I saw nothing that led me to believe Mizzou was trying different schemes or options to try and slow OU down. The most puzzling to me was how far off the line the corners were playing. They were giving OU receivers 5 to 8 yards of cushion the entire game. I mean come on, you’re down 38-7 at the half, what is there to lose by jamming some receivers and getting a little more physical?
Now, I will say that Oklahoma is very impressive; this squad is clicking on all cylinders right now. I keep hearing that Oklahoma will be an underdog to Florida in the Championship game. I don’t see it. Florida is a very good team as well but I honestly don’t see any college team beating the Sooners right now. You can’t tell me that OU’s defense is not good enough to hang with Florida. There’s no doubt Mizzou didn’t do themselves any favors by turning the ball over 3 times, but still, the OU D held the 6th ranked offense in
the nation to only 21 points.
I do think this will be a great matchup between the Sooners and Gators but I have to give the edge to Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, Mizzou has accepted an invite to play in the Alamo bowl against Northwestern on Dec. 29th. Two teams with completely different expectations coming into the season, Missouri was a preseason National Championship favorite while Northwestern was just hoping to get into and win a bowl game.
These two teams have not faced each other since 1987 when the Tigers beat the Wildcats in Columbia 28-3. These teams have previously faced off 8 times and are split at 4 wins apiece.
Again, the strength of Mizzou is its explosive offense and its weakness is the 100th ranked defense. Mizzou has losses to three top 25 teams, getting beat by an average of 23 points. Northwestern has losses to two top 2
5 teams by an average of 26 points. Both teams faced Illinois this year with Mizzou winning by 10 and Northwestern winning by 17.
This should be a good ballgame. Mizzou has several seniors in which this will be their last hoorah, so I am sure they will want to go out on top and give Mizzou their first back to back 10-win seasons in school history.
Northwestern will be playing to reach that 10-win mark as well. Like Mizzou, Northwestern has 23 seniors that will be looking to go out on top. It has been 59 years since Northwestern has won a bowl game.
I have to give the edge to Mizzou on Offense and Northwestern on Defense. Should make for an interesting game. Go Tigers !!
coop92 is a contributing author to Midwest Sports Fans, as well as the editor at Midwest Sports Junkies. Check out his site for additional analysis of the St. Louis Cardinals, the BCS, and Missouri Tigers football.
