Another great week of NFL action: the Colts won (but looked human), the Saints continue to roll, and the Giants continue to spiral out of control.

It seems like every week brings more drama to the stage during what has been a very exciting season thus far that we are now halfway through.

One thing is for sure….THE REDSKINS DIDN’T LOSE THIS WEEK! (But the Browns did!)

[Editor's Note: There you go dick Myles. Keep rubbing salt in the wound jackass buddy. Keep kicking Browns fans when they're down you no talent ass clown my friend.

I can't wait until Peyton Manning retires and your one-man franchise returns to sucking and all of its fair-weather fans go away.  Go ahead, shake your head. But you know it's true.]

Now, onto this week’s Power Rankings.

1. New Orleans Saints (Last 2 [+1])

The Saints once again flip-flop into first place again with a big win against division rival Atlanta.

Rushing TD’s, Defensive TDs, Passing TDs…this team scores however they want to, and it seems that if they score less than 30, its a debacle.

We may be heading toward an Indy-New Orleans Superbowl, and that makes me giddy.

[Editor's Note: Readers, please raise your hand if you give a crap what makes Big MB "giddy"? In fact, raise your hand if you are explicitly disturbed by the mention of Big MB being "giddy"? Ah, unanimous agreement. Just as I suspected.

You know Myles, there are Browns, Rams, Lions, and Chiefs fans reading this post who don't need to have it shoved in their faces that the two teams you root for are undefeated. What the hell have you done to deserve such a charmed NFL existence?

So shove it and go giddy yourself off on some other blog.

I hate the NFL.

Moving on, in honor of that kickass picture I found of Drew Brees and Alfonso Ribiero (aka Carlton Banks) I've chosen "It's Not Unusual" by Tom Jones as this week's Power Ranking theme song. Enjoy.]

2. Indianapolis Colts (Last 1 [-1])

Indy and Peyton Manning looked somewhat average on the offensive side of the ball this week, but the defense and special teams stepped up and prevented Indy from its first loss against the 49ers with an 18-14 victory.

Minus the 60-yard touchdown run by Frank Gore, the defense was spectacular, with two very crucial sacks of 49ers QB Alex Smith in the closing minutes of the game. On top of that, they are now the NFL’s #1 rated defense in points allowed, which in the end, is the only stat on defense that truly matters.

Not unlike the Saints, the Colts are proving that they can win in several different ways, even if it is a halfback option pass to win the game.

[Editor's Note: Blah, blah, blah. The Colts' run ends once they face New England. Mark it down.]

3. Minnesota Vikings (Last 5 [+2])

Brett Favre must be feeling good. Yes, he beat his old team on MNF in Minnesota, but this one meant more. This one was in Lambeau.

Favre came out on fire, throwing for four touchdowns and no interceptions. Jared Allen is definitely a beast at DE; on one play, Green Bay didn’t even bother to block him en route to one of Minny’s six sacks on Aaron Rodgers.

[Editor's Note: Wait a minute...who the hell just said they don't know who Carlton Banks is and that they don't understand the Tom Jones reference? Are you serious? Damn this new generation is deprived. Just watch below and it will all make sense, and then find out what channel in your area shows reruns of The Fresh Price of Bel-Air. You'll thank me.]

4. New England Patriots (Last 4 [0])

The Pats were on bye this week, but with the Jets’ losing effort against Miami, they have improved their standing in the AFC East. As much as I hate to admit it, this team is dangerous. If they can stay healthy, they will be a major contender come time for the playoffs.

[Editor's Note: Way to be objective and give everyone equal time Myles. You write a book about the Colts and Saints, then we get to the Patriots and get three totally uninspired, generic sentences. I can't wait until they beat Indy and you have to rank them above the Colts. It's coming...soon.]

5. Denver Broncos (Last 3 [-2])

Finally, a chink in the armor of what was seeming to become an AFC Beast.

Denver lost to the Ravens 30-7, and now, all of those nay-sayers can say “I told you so.”

However, I am not jumping off the bandwagon. This team is still 6-1, plays in a soft division, and will be a pest in the playoffs, perhaps still even achieving a first round bye if they can bounce back from this loss.

Don’t sell Denver yet, it’s just one game.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (Last 6 [0)

Cincy was on bye this week, and apparently, that is the only way anyone can keep Chad Ochocinco out of the endzone.

Cincy remains tied atop the AFC North with the Steelers, and have a very important divisional matchup this week against Baltimore, who is coming off of a big win against denver.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last 7 [0])

Pittsburgh was on bye this week, and remains tied for the lead in the AFC North with the aforementioned Bengals; however, consider them a half game behind Cincy because of a loss to the Bengals earlier in the season.

Pittsburgh is traveling to Denver for a monumental matchup on MNF this week. Denver is coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Ravens and will be looking for revenge on Big Ben and the Steelers.

[Editor's Note: Thinking about Denver, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh -- three solid teams, yes, but none of whom will be making the Super Bowl this year -- has me bored. So how 'bout a little more Carlton Banks?

Ask and you shall receive...]

8. Philadelphia Eagles (Last 13 [+5])

Don’t look now, but here come Donovan McNabb and the Eagles.

McNabb has potentially the biggest surprise of the NFL season in big play specialist DeSean Jackson, a guy that he can throw and hand off to, and he has done just that. Jackson still maintains the impressive stat that all of his touchdowns are of 50 yards or more.

The Eagles are tied for the NFC East lead with Dallas, and will host the ‘Boys in Philly this week with the division lead on the line.

9. Dallas Cowboys (Last 14 [+5])

I’m still not buying the Cowboys, despite their jump in my Power Rankings this week, which was probably due more to the poor play of the teams they moved past than their dominant victory over an injury-ravaged Seattle team.

Next week will be a big match in Philly against the Eagles for the division lead.

Keep this in mind as you jump on the Cowboys bandwagon, and eventually crown them prematurely: Wade Phillips is still their coach, and Tony Romo is still their quarterback; and unfortunately, December is coming.

10. Houston Texans (Last 15 [+5])

Well, apparently the Texans coaching staff has no love lost for fumbles. Running back Steve Slayton was benched in favor of back-up Ryan Moats who ended up with over 120 yards and three touchdowns.

Houston continues to play very well, and I hate to say it, but I told you so. Houston is 5-3 and will head to division leading, undefeated Indianapolis, for what may be the Texans’ biggest game of the season so far.

[Editor's note: For what "may be" their biggest game of the season? It's clearly their biggest game of the season, and very well might be the biggest game thus far in their franchise's history. Too bad them they won't have Owen Daniels for the rest of the season. Big loss, akin to Indy losing Dallas Clark.]

11. Atlanta Falcons (Last 11 [0])

The Falcons put up a fight against the Saints, but in the end it just wasn’t enough as they drop to three games back of the NFC South lead. Mike Smith and the Falcons still have a great team, and they could still make a push into the playoffs. Stay tuned, and don’t sell this team just yet.

[Editor's note: A "great" team? If that's true, then how do you have them below the Cowboys, who you claim to not be "buying". Come on Colts boy. Where's the consistency???]

12. New York Giants (Last 8 [-4])

Only just a few short weeks after they were tied with the Colts for #1 in my Power Rankings, I am screaming to sell the Giants.

Something is wrong in New York, very wrong.

Eli has regressed in production and decision making, and looks as confused as St. Louis did when they realized they had won last weekend against Detroit.

Better step up Giants, or you may find yourself out of the Power Rankings next week, and worse, out of the playoff race.

[Editor's Note: I'll agree with you there. As great and prestigious as your Power Rankings are, I do believe it would be far worse for the Giants to fall out of the playoff race than the rankings. But they will, of course, go hand in hand.]

13. Green Bay Packers (Last 9 [-4])

Green Bay gave a valiant effort in the closing minutes against Brett Favre and the Vikings in Favre’s triumphant return to Lambeau. The biggest concern in Cheeseland is protecting Aaron Rodgers. You just can’t allow six sacks a game and expect to win.

[Editor's Note: You also can't allow the best player in your franchise history, and one of the top 10-15 QBs in the NFL, to get away and play against you, in your division. But that's a topic for another day...]

14. Baltimore Ravens (Last Not Ranked)

Baltimore makes their way back into this week’s top 15 with a convincing win against the previously undefeated Broncos.

The Ravens’ defense held the Broncos to just seve points, and forced QB Kyle Orton out of his comfort zone, making him to throw the ball downfield.

The Ravens are fighting an uphill battle though, with the Steelers and Bengals playing great football.

15. Chicago Bears (Last Not Ranked)

The Bears make it back in to the top 15 this week with a convincing win over Cleveland.

Yes, It’s Cleveland, but still, with Arizona’s loss to the Panthers, I couldn’t fathom leaving them in the Rankings when they were barely there before.

The question on a weekly basis in Chicago is, which Jay Cutler will show up this week?

[Editor's note: You must not have watched the Bears-Browns game. It was the least impressive 30-6 win I've ever seen. Chicago did not look good at all; Cleveland is just that bad. You are right that the Bears need Cutler to step it up, but he looks really out of sync right now.]

This Week’s Biggest Winner

Philadelphia Eagles +5, Dallas Cowboys +5, Houston Texans +5

This Week’s Biggest Loser

Arizona Cardinals (Out of the Top 15), New York Giants -4

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* – Drew Brees / Alfonso Ribiero photo credit: CakeRocksTheParty.Wordpress.com

Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears

NFL betting favorite: Bears -13.5

In the competitive NFC West the Bears simply can’t afford to fall behind any further, especially with their rival Vikings and Packers playing each other this week. Many bettors expected the Bears to win in Cincinnati this week; instead, they were absolutely humiliated by the Bengals, who lit them up for 45 points.

Luckily for the Monsters of the Midway, the Browns are the perfect remedy. Cleveland ranks dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 414.9 yards per game. The Browns’ passing attack is also totally anemic thanks to Derek Anderson, whom Eric Mangini keeps trotting out there. If the Bears can’t dominate this game, it’s time to really worry.

Bears-Browns Pick: Bears -13.5

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

NFL betting favorite: Eagles -2

The Giants arguably looked like the NFL’s best team through five weeks; suddenly, they’re on a losing streak. There’s no question the Giants have a strong passing game, great running game and good pass rush, but they’ve hit some surprisingly tough defenses against New Orleans and Arizona. Versus the swarming, big-play-oriented Eagles “D,” the problems may continue for Eli Manning. He’s been just OK in 10 career starts against the Eagles, tossing 12 touchdowns versus 10 interceptions.

Donovan McNabb, on the other hand, has 16 career games – one full season – against the Giants in his career and has a 20:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Against a depleted Giants secondary, he and the Eagles have the edge.

Eagles-Giants Pick: Eagles -2

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

NFL betting favorite: Packers -3

Well, well, well. Looks like the Vikings aren’t totally invincible after all. The savvy online betting player realized that last week’s tilt with Pittsburgh was Minnesota’s first outdoor game since Week 1. The Vikes opened against the Browns and enjoyed cushy dome matchups against the Lions and Rams along the way too. Can Brett Favre legitimize the Vikings again by going into Green Bay and winning a tough road game?

I think not. The Packer pass defense is decent and capable of making big plays; look for them to rebound from a poor performance earlier this season versus Favre. Also, the Viking secondary is missing Antoine Winfield and Aaron Rodgers already torched them for 384 yards in this season’s other meaning. Don’t underestimate the Pack just like you shouldn’t underestimate Philadelphia’s World Series odds.

Packers-Vikings Pick: Packers -3

With a another very interesting week of NFL Football in the books, the Power Rankings have decided to be like Elvis for Halloween this week….they’re “All Shook Up”.

O.K., that was terrible, but on a more serious note, it was a very interesting week with a lot of changes in the rankings. Take a look and comment; tell me what YOU think!

[Editor's note: I'll tell you what I think right now. How in the hell can you drop the Saints below the Colts after NO showed the heart of a champion on the road this past Sunday? Oh wait, that's right...I forgot that you live in Indianapolis. Never mind. Makes perfect sense. "All shook up" indeed...]

1. Indianapolis Colts (Last 2 [+1])

O.K., so we all expected the Colts to wax the Rams. No big surprise at all.

But, this Colts defense has seemed to continue to pick up speed, and the young guys that this team has, especially in the secondary, are beginning to make veteran plays, like Lacey’s interception return for a touchdown, which is something that Colts fans haven’t seen very often recently

The only negative to this game was that Peyton Manning’s streak of 300+ yard games was stopped at five. He only had 248 yards of passing and 3 TDs. Only.

2. New Orleans Saints (Last 1 [-1])

At the half of their bout with Miami, I’m pretty sure everyone in the Bayou must have been drowning their sorrows in a nice dark beer.

After being down 24-3, the Saints took control of the game and ended up with a commanding 46-34 victory over the Dolphins.

Drew Brees said after the game that he never once lost confidence that the Saints would be victorious. Now those are some very strong words.

The Saints still drop a spot in my Power Rankings due to the fact that they did struggle in the first half against Miami, but don’t be surprised if they find their way back to the top. Next week is a big game against division rival Atlanta.

3. Denver Broncos (Last 3 [No Change])

With Denver on bye, and one of the four remaining undefeated teams falling from perfection (see Minnesota Vikings), I feel it’s only fair that Denver maintains their position in the Power Rankings this week.

Next up: the spiraling Baltimore Ravens

4. New England Patriots (Last 5 [+1])

So the Pats have beaten up on bad teams. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are a top 5 team right?

Wrong.

This team is picking up steam and now at 5-2 they are solely atop the AFC East.

Anyone else anticipating a knock down drag out fight in Indianapolis on November 15^th? Mark it on your calendar.

5. Minnesota Vikings (Last 4 [-1])

So the Vikes are the first of the final four undefeated teams to fall from grace, but there is nothing for them to hang their head about. My only question for Brad Childress is why on 1^st and goal on the half yard line would you only give the league’s best runner one shot?

Don’t blame Brett Favre for this loss. The fumble was blind, and his interception was more Chester Taylor’s fault than Favre’s. This is still a very dangerous team, but next week’s game in Green Bay – Favre’s first game in GB since his exit - just got a lot more interesting.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (Last 14 [+8])

This team keeps surprising me and impressing me the further we get along in the season. They’ve already beaten the Steelers and now have on their resume a complete dismantling of Jay Cutler and the Bears, 45-10.

Cedric Benson is playing like the Bears thought he would when they picked him 4^th over all. The only problem? He’s a Bengal now.

We talk about the weapons in Indy and New Orleans, but what about the Bengals? Carson Palmer. Chad Ochocinco. Laverneus Coles. Chris Henry. Cedrick Benson.

Take your pick on who to stop. They’ll just burn you elsewhere.

A bye this week for the Bengals, then a big divisional game against the Ravens in week 9.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last 9 [+2])

I haven’t figured out how much I buy into the Steelers this year, but every time I start to close the book on them, they come out and just do something really special.

Two defensive touchdowns in the closing minutes of the 4^th quarter against Brett Favre and the undefeated Vikings sealed this game for the Steel City. Big Ben continues to be a very solid QB, and now the Steelers find themselves with their star back on D, and in a virtual tie with Cincy for the AFC North.

Get some rest boys, you’re heading to Denver after your bye.

8. New York Giants (Last 7 [-1])

This team is really starting to become a big disappointment.

A couple weeks ago, Jerod and I had a conversation about who the Giants had played, and aside from the Cowboys (and who the hell knows if they are for real or not), the G-Men had played no one. Now they have suffered consecutive losses against the Saints and Cardinals.

Eli looks a little lost out there and coach Tom Coughlin had better fix this team. Fast.

9. Green Bay Packers (Last 8 [-1])

What a big weekend for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

A huge 31-3 win over the mundane Browns (sorry Jerod) [Editor's note: go to hell Myles, the tailgating was awesome!], coupled with a Minnesota loss to the Steelers and the Pack are just one game back of the division leading Vikings.

Oh yeah. The evil Brett Favre and his aforementioned Vikes come to town this week, and the Pack have the chance to get revenge for their loss earlier in the season. It would also moveGreen Bay into a tie for the NFC North with Minnesota.

This is a much watch game. There will be blood.

10. Arizona Cardinals (Last 15 [+5])

After their loss to the Colts, I, as well as just about every NFL expert out there, had written the Cards off.

Then they spanked Seattle and beat the Giants.

Now Arizona sits at the top of the NFC West, and as long as they continue to play well they will most likely win their division with San Fran starting to fall apart.

11. Atlanta Falcons (Last 6 [-5])

I’m not sure what’s going on in the ATL right now, but I would love to know who the real Falcons are.

Two weeks ago they blew out the 49ers in San Fran, then they struggled to close the book on the Bears.

Now, after a 37-21 loss to America’s Team (The Cowboys) the Falcons find themselves at 4-2, two games behind the undefeated Saints.

12. New York Jets (Last 11 [-1])

Want to hear irony?

After a couple of really bad weeks for Mark Sanchez and the Jets, seemingly the biggest story of the Jet 38-0 trouncing of the Joke-land Raiders (you like that?) is Mark Sanchez sneaking a hot dog between his legs.

At least he likes mustard on his hot dog.

Other than that, the Jets disposed of a team they were supposed to beat. I’m still concerned about Sanchez’s “rookie-dom.” [Editor's note: Or, to continue to lame jokes, shouldn't it be "rookie-dumb?"]

13. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Not Ranked)

The Eagles continue to bounce in and out of my weekly top 15.

There is a superstar in the making in Philly.

DeSean Jackson does it all. Reverses for 60 yard touchdowns, catches for 60 yard touchdowns, kick returns.

Here’s an interesting stat: of Jackson’s four touchdowns this season, none have been for any less than 57 yards.

14. Dallas Cowboys (Last Not Ranked)

Contender or Pretender? I’m still trying to figure this one out.

Tony Romo is about as consistent as a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. However, Miles Austin has given this offense new life. His big play ability give a new dimension to the otherwise dull Cowboy offense.

Maybe all Romo needed was a big play receiver NOT named Terrell Owens.

15. Houston Texans (Last Not Ranked)

I’m sure I’m going to catch hell again for putting the Texans back in my top 15, but it’s my top 15 and I’ll do what I want. Mess with me and I’ll put the Raiders up here.

[Editor's note: do that and you can find another website to post your Power Rankings on. If a shitty, undeserving team is going to inexplicably crack the top 15 it's going to be the Browns...or I'm taking your log-in password and going home.]

In all seriousness, the Texans are 4-3 and although they are somewhat inconsistent in their play, they keep winning ball games.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Matt Shaub may perhaps be the most underrated QB in the NFL right now. Remember the last QB that I considered to be underrated? His name was Drew Brees.

Any Questions?

This Week’s Biggest Winner

Cincinnati Bengals +8

This Week’s Biggest Loser

Jim Zorn and the entire Redskin Management Team. Need I say more?

Baltimore Ravens – This team has been falling apart at the seams, hopefully the bye week will treat them well.

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* – Peyton Manning photo credit: The Squeaky Pickle

This week, we have our first ever tie in the Power Rankings. I had a real tough decision choosing who would be first and who would be second so there is a tie for first place.

T-1. New York Giants (Last 6 [+5])

Ok, so Archie Manning must be sitting at home smiling at both of his boys who will tie for 1^st in Big MB’s Power Rankings for Week 5.

Obviously, the Giants don’t miss Plaxico Burress one bit. The G-men’s destruction of Kansas City only showcased Manning and his receivers. Smith and Manningham continue to impress and Brandon Jacobs is the beast of the NFC East. Next week is a HUGE NFC power game as the Saints come to town.

[Editor's Note: it's Big MB writing this column...any guess who the other 4-0 team is that he has tied for first? It shouldn't take more than one...]

T-1. Indianapolis Colts (Last 3 [+2])

Can Peyton get any better?

Manning has had 4 straight games of 300+ yards for the first time in his career. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are starting to look like an unstoppable backfield tandem, both rushing for a touchdown a piece in Indy’s dismantling of Seattle. And worst of all for other teams in the NFL, this defense under Larry Coyer is looking like somewhat of an immovable object.

Until the slop minutes of the matchup with Seattle when Indy had their 3^rd string in, the Colts held Seattle to only 3 points, after holding an explosive Arizona offense to only 10. Next Week presents an interesting match up against 0-4 Tennessee.

3. New Orleans Saints (Last 2 [-1])

For the second straight week, Drew Brees didn’t throw one touchdown, but the Saints continue to roll as they took down the heavily favored Jets of New York. The defense had two touchdowns, and Pierre Thomas put one in on the ground. This team seams to be able to win games just about any way they want. Next week is a huge match up as they travel to New York to battle it out with the also undefeated Giants.

4. Minnesota Vikings (Last 5 [+1])

Brett Favre came out in a fury and never looked back in this game. The Vikings defense looked as good as ever putting Aaron Rodgers on his back very often, and more importantly have established that teams can no longer put 8 or 9 in the box against Peterson. Favre is really clicking with this team now, which is very scary for all of those in the NFC North.

5. Denver Broncos (Last 10 [+5])

O.K., I can admit when I am wrong. I was dead wrong. This Denver team may be more of a contender than I had previously thought. Although they looked stale early at home against Dallas, a late touchdown catch by Brandon Marshall, highlighted by a great run after the catch and horrible tackling by Dallas, then a redzone stand by the defense and Denver is now 4-0. Interesting.

6. New England Patriots (Last 12 [+6])

Don’t look now, but here come the Patriots. Another scary moment for Pat fans when Brady went to the locker room, but he came back to lead his team to a victory against a very tough Baltimore team. As much as I hate giving the Pats credit, they are playing better, and now have beaten two very tough teams, and are in a two-way tie in the AFC East with the Jets.

7. Baltimore Ravens (Last 1 [-6])

After a disappointing loss to New England, Baltimore takes a significant drop in my Power Rankings, but not necessarily because of their play, but more because of the play of the teams that moved ahead of them. Baltimore is still one of the best teams in the league, but now find themselves in a two-way tie for the lead in the AFC North with surprise Cinderella Cincinnati.

8. San Fransico 49ers (Last 13 [+5])

Along with Cincy, the 49ers seem to be putting together a Cinderella season after their 35-0 dismantling of St. Louis, who seems to be just awful. No Frank Gore? No problem. Shaun Hill seems to be making a name for himself as a legitimate QB in this league. Now, if only they could get this whole Crabtree thing under wraps, this team could possible be very dangerous.

9. Atlanta Falcons (Last 7 [-2])

Not much to report here, Atlanta was on a bye week after a tough loss to New England, so they take a little hit on their rankings, just due to inactivity, but at least they didn’t completely fall off like the Eagles.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (Last 11 [+1])

The Bengals still remain somewhat of an NFL Cinderella, now 3-1 and tied with the Ravens for first in the AFC North, perhaps football’s most brutal division. They did struggle against a weak Browns team, but a win is a win. Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer seem to have put aside their differences, Ochocinco had 2 TD’s in this game.

11. New York Jets (Last 4 [-7])

Remember last week when I told you that I was hesitant to put the Jets very high in my rankings, due to the fact that they were led by a rookie QB? Well, Sunday’s loss to the nothing-less-than-impressive Saints proved that Sanchez may not quite be ready to be the NFL MVP. Yes, he is an impressive rookie QB, but he will make mistakes, just as he did this week. Don’t sell your stock of this team just yet though, they are definitely still a contender.

12. Chicago Bears (Last 8 [-4])

It looked a little scary for the Bears early against the hungry Lions (cheesy I know), but the second half proved to be all Chicago as Jay Cutler and Company put it to Detroit and came away victorious to establish a 3-1 record. Matt Forte seems to be waking up as well, and this defense is playing quite well without its emotional and physical leader, Brian Unlacher.

13. Houston Texans (Last Not Ranked)

Those who know me know that I am very high on the Houston Texans this year. I predicted them to make the playoffs, and even possibly challenge the vaunted Colts for the AFC South Title. I’m not quite sure they will challenge the Colts with the way that Indy is playing, but Matt Schaub is a very, very good QB, and it doesn’t hurt to be throwing passes to a beast like Andre Johnson. Oh yeah, Steve Slaton decided to show up to the party too.

Keep your eyes on the Texans, it just may be their time to shine.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last 15 [+1])

The Steelers got off to a great start against the Chargers, but somehow almost tried to give the game away in the 4^th quarter. They did hold on to win 38-28, but there may be concern in how they let the Chargers back in this one. The one positive the Steel City fans can take from this is Rashard Mendenhall. Pittsburgh finally found a run game with Mendenhall having over 160 yards and 2 TD’s.

15. Green Bay Packers (Last 9 [-6])

This week, the Pack made the top 15 because there really weren’t too many other choices I liked better. Minnesota exposed this poor offensive line again. If Green Bay wants to have a franchise quarterback, they had better work to protect him better. The Pack has a lot of work to do, and they will be climbing an uphill battle with Minnesota and Chicago looking so good in this division.

This Week’s Biggest Winner

New England Patriots (+6) – Just when you thought they were done….don’t look now here comes the Pats.

This Week’s Biggest Loser

New York Jets (-7) – I warned Jets fans to be aware of the Rookie. He is a good player, but he is a rookie. But don’t worry Jet fans, you still have a great team, and a good chance at the playoffs.

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You can follow Big MB on twitter @ www/twitter.com/mylesb3269

Be sure to check in every Tuesday for Big MB’s NFL Power Rankings, every Wednesday for “I’ll Tell You This” and every week to the MSF podcast!!!

[Editor's note: Today we introduce a new weekly feature here at MSF, courtesy of Big MB, our soon-to-be renowned NFL expert and already renowned teller of "this".

Every week around this time, Big MB will be checking in with his NFL Power Rankings. He goes 1-15 and gives you the low down on the NFL's best teams.

Bold prediction: the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins will not be making it into Big MB's first list.

Find out after the jump.]

1. Baltimore Ravens

For years now, the Ravens have made their name on defense. Although it may not be the best defense in the NFL anymore, it is still one of the best, and one of the most physical.

By the way, Baltimore has an offense to go with that defense now, second in points scored, only to the Saints. Watch out for Joe Flacco, he may be a legend forming right front of our eyes.

2. New Orleans Saints

Even when Drew Brees doesn’t throw a touchdown, this team still puts up 27 and wins by 20. Who do you stop? Brees, Colston, Henderson, Thomas, Bush, Shockey? Good luck keeping this team out of the playoffs, and the record books.

3. Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning is like a fine wine. He gets better with age.

All of the skeptics said without Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez that the Colts offense would go stale. Well they were wrong. With the emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, and of course Dallas Clark, this team seams to be hitting on all cylinders.

Oh by the way, the defense is getting pretty darn good after holding the prolific Cardinals to just 10 points.

4. New York Jets

This may be the surprise of the year, and the only reason they aren’t higher in my rankings is, ironically, the same reason they are as high as they are: Mark Sanchez. The rookie has displayed nothing but poise since he was named the starter for the Jets. The team seems to rally around him, and they all seem to love him.

But, he is just a rookie. This team is dangerous, but Sanchez will make mistakes as the year progresses. Big matchup coming up this week against the Saints.

5. Minnesota Vikings

From new to old…I would like to say to all of the nay-sayers, What do you have to say about Favre now?

His last two games have been very Favre-like, and he has thrown 5 touchdowns to one interception. The best RB in the league lines up behind him, and that can’t hurt the situation.

This week’s matchup has Favre playing his old team Green Bay, this time with #4 in evil purple. Expect this one to be a nasty game. Favre has something to prove to his former organization.

6. New York Giants

No Plaxico? No problem. Steve Smith and Mario Manningham have more than made up for hole left by Plaxico. (Maybe not so much the one in his leg, but oh well.)

Eli has gotten his confidence back, and Jacobs will continue to bruise every defender that steps in his way. The NFC East is their division to lose this year.

7. Atlanta Falcons

How good is Matt Ryan? He’s another youngster playing like a veteran. He did look a little confused against the Patriots this past week, but hell, this is his second year. Great coaching, great play calling, great players….Atlanta should walk away with the NFC South this year.

8. Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler seems to finally be settling down in Chicago, and that can’t be a good thing for anyone in the NFC North. This is a tough division though, with Minnesota and Green Bay both hanging their hats on forcing turnovers. Cutler will have to watch his “gunslinging” and focus and a short surgical passing game. Devin Hester is proving to be a good WR, and though he still needs work, he’s not just a kick returner anymore.

9. Green Bay Packers

It was really tough to decide between Green Bay and Chicago this week. The Pack’s defense has been nothing less than stout during the course of the 2009 season, and has come up with big turnovers when needed.

I’m not completely sold on Aaron Rodgers, and I flat out don’t like Ryan Grant, but Jennings and Driver make one hell of a combination down field. Guess what…Mr.  Favre is coming to town on Monday Night Football this week!

10. Denver Broncos

Of all seven 3-0 teams, I like the Broncos the least. At best they should be 2-1, if it were not for the miraculous deflection that WR Brandon Stokley took to the house in the closing seconds of week one. My confidence doesn’t grow in them that much considering their other two wins were over extremely weak teams. They are, as of right now, without a doubt pretenders.

11. Cincinnati Bengals

On the other side of things, are the Cincinnati Bengals, the victims of the “Immaculate Deflection” against the Broncos. The Bengals beat the World Champion Steelers, and very well could be 3-0, and sitting pretty in perhapsthe toughest division in football, except for the Browns. (Sorry JRod)

[Editor's Note: Got to hell Myles.  Only I can diss on the Browns on this site!]

12. New England Patriots

The Patriots should be 1-2 and not even on this Power Rankings list. But this past Sunday, we saw Tom Brady and New England start to play like the team the experts said they would be. I still think they are on the decline, and with the emergence of the Jets, perhaps may not even make the playoffs for a second straight season.

13. San Fransico 49ers

The 49ers are definitely my dark-horse NFC team this year. The bad news is that Frank Gore could be missing 4-6 weeks. The good news is that the 49ers play in the weak NFC west. If they could sign Michael Crabtree, there is a possibility that they could make a playoff run.

14. Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb’s ribs are still a major problem, but Kevin Kolb has played phenomenally. We now understand why Andy Reid drafted this kid, even though he already had one of the top 5 QB’s in the league. I don’t believe that the Eagles are in too much trouble, but they need a healthy Brian Westbrook.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

Well, who would have though the Champs would start out 1-2?

After a tough loss to Cincy, I flirted with not even mentioning them in my top 15. But it was them or Dallas, and when you have to put a game away on MNF, at home, in your new stadium, in the closing minutes, against a bad Carolina team, you don’t deserve to make the top 15.

So congrats Pittsburgh, you made it here by default. You may want to step up your game though. Last time I checked, Baltimore is pretty good, and now you’ve lost a division game to Cincinnati.

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You can follow BigMB on twitter at www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

Be sure to check out the weekly MSF podcast with JRod and BigMB on the MNF preview, and available for download on iTunes!!!!

As I sat in the Edward Jones Dome Sunday afternoon and watched the Green Bay Packers beat the hapless St. Louis Rams, I couldn’t stop a wandering eye from glancing up at the far side of the building.

There on the ring of honor, beside Rams greats like Marshall Faulk and Merlin Olsen, and other St. Louis football icons like Dan Dierdorf, were digital displays providing scores and stats from around the league.

Packers fans delighted in seeing the Minnesota Vikings trailing San Francisco late at home. Former Packers quarterback Brett Favre was having a yeoman’s day, completing 50 percent of his passes for a pedestrian 221 yards.

At the same time inside the Edward Jones Dome, new Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was hitting big plays to Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, and leading the Packers to a 36-17 win.

Rodgers had a sparkling passer rating of 126.9 by virtue of his 13-for-23 day with 269 passing yards and touchdown tosses to Driver and fullback John Kuhn. Rodgers also ran for a score, and picked up another 38 yards with his legs.

What the thousands of Packers fans in St. Louis were unable to see was the switch in Favre’s head they had grown so accustomed to seeing for 16 seasons get flipped.

Favre had engineered 39 fourth-quarter comebacks for the Packers, displaying the intangible ability to take over a game when it was on the line. Sure he lost a few along the way, but his talent for dominating a game, and the exuberance in which he did so, is what made him a sure-fire Hall of Famer. It’s also the reason he grew to become arguably the most beloved player in Packers history.

Now donning the purple of the hated Vikings, Favre reminded Packers fans of his greatness, and proved to the rest of the league that he still has it.

Taking over at their own 20 with 1:29 remaining and trailing by four, the Vikings were without a timeout. Favre, who had been 18-of-36 for 221 yards with a touchdown and interception, engineered a 10-play, 80-yard drive to lead the Vikings to an improbable win.

Two weeks before his 40th birthday, Favre led his 40th career fourth-quarter comeback. He was 6-of-10 on the drive, with two incompletions as a result of having to spike the ball to stop the block. The drive ended with a remarkable 32-yard fastball to Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone with just two seconds remaining.
Favre had done it.

He pumped left, rolled right, avoided a sack by skipping backwards, then rifled a pass with pin-point accuracy between two defenders. Lewis did his part, too, laying out for the ball, and getting both feet in bounds.

Following a review, the touchdown was upheld, and the Vikings knew now why their coach had pursued Favre so heavily.

Brad Childress was often chastised for dissing the two quarterbacks he had in camp, incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, a player they traded for to push Jackson for the starting job. But, at the end, there was Jackson right next to Favre giving him a congratulatory hug.

Even Jackson realized that neither he nor Rosenfels would have led the Vikings to a victory that day.

Brett Favre is Brett Favre for a reason. He’s a bonafide Hall of Famer for a reason.

As well as Rodgers has played for the Packers, they are still a team that has won just eight of 19 games since Favre led them to 13 wins in 2007. People are still second-guessing the decision of general manager Ted Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy not to welcome Favre back after he changed his mind about retirement in June of 2008.

On Sunday, the old, grey-haired quarterback gave those naysayers another reason to say, “I told you so.”

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* – Brett Favre photo credit: City Pages

Wow.

Trailing 24-20 in the 4th quarter to the San Francisco 49ers, Brett Favre showed everyone why the Vikings were willing to bend over backwards to bring him in as their QB for 2009.

Here’s why:

Video: Brett Favre Throws Game-Winning Touchdown Pass to Greg Lewis

Favre, under intense pressure, found Greg Lewis in the back of the endzone for the touchdown, giving the Vikings a 27-24 lead with :02 left. Lost in the hubbub over Favre throwing the TD will be the incredible effort by Lewis to make the grab. He did a fantastic job on the play.

The Vikings would hang on and move to 3-0. The frisky 49ers fell to 2-1…but also showed that they are a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.

Favre finished the game 24-46 for 301 yards. He threw 2 TDs and one INT, his first pick of the season.

Next week, Favre and the Vikings face Favre’s old team, the Green Bay Packers, on Monday night.

Brace yourself. You won’t hear about anything else next week.

NFL Week 3 matchups are here already. Hard to believe how quickly the season is going. We’ve already seen a massive upset happen – how about those Bengals over the Packers? – and there could be an even bigger one on the horizon this weekend. Let’s make a few NFL picks.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, September 27, 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL betting favorite: Vikings -6.5

Here’s our chance to find out if San Francisco is truly for real. Frank Gore destroyed Seattle’s defense last week, racking up 207 rushing yards, but he faces the formidable Minnesota run defense led by Pat and Kevin Williams this week. If (when?) the Vikes stack the box and bottle up Gore, Shaun Hill will have to do more than caretake from the quarterback position. I’m not so sure he’s up to the task. San Fran’s “D” looks excellent under Mike Singletary but hasn’t faced a tailback anywhere close to Adrian Peterson’s caliber so far. Bet on Minnesota to cover.

Betting services recommend: Vikings -6.5

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions

Sunday, September 27, 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL betting favorite: Redskins -6

Here’s your big shocker of the week. The Redskins are a superior team, of course, but they’re out of sorts. When you only beat the Rams 9-7 at home and score no touchdowns, how can you be a safe six-point favorite on the road against any team? Washington is struggling to pressure the quarterback, recording just two sacks in two games even after a matchup against Marc Bulger. That means Matt Stafford may have time to unleash some big throws to Calvin Johnson. The Lions can at least beat the spread and have a real shot to win outright.

Betting services recommend: Lions +6

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, September 27, 4:15 p.m. ET

NFL betting favorite: Bears -1.5

After Matt Hasselbeck went down last week and Frank Gore trucked the Seahawks’ front seven, it’s a bit surprising that the Bears are only 1.5-point favorites. You’d think they’d be more popular choices after beating the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers. Jay Cutler found a groove against the Steelers and Matt Forte is itching to bust out. If Hasselbeck plays, he’ll still likely be ineffective playing through a broken rib. If he doesn’t, the Bears could rout the Seahawks.

Betting services recommend: Bears 1-.5

A few people (including Peter King) were predicting that the Lions could beat the Vikings this weekend and snap their 18-game losing streak. After watching Adrian Peterson carve up the Browns in the second half last week, and Drew Brees throw for 6 TDs against the Lions, I wasn’t buying it.

But so far so good for Detroit.

Rookie QB Matt Stafford just threw a TD pass to Calvin Johnson and the Lions lead 10-0 with about 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter.

Stay tuned…

Update: The Vikings, surprise surprise, scored on their next possession, a 1-yard TD pass from Brett Favre to Visanthe Shiancoe.  10-7 Lions.

Update: I officially jinxed the Lions. Adrian Peterson just treated the Lions D like they were the Browns and rumbled for a 27-yard TD. 17-10 Vikings. Sorry Detroit.

• Video: Brandon Stokley Game-Winning TD Catch — (Black Sports Online)
• Video: Adrian Peterson Stiff-Arm Leads to TD Run — (Black Sports Online)
• Great Deals on 2009 NFL Tickets — (StubHub)

The first video probably takes the cake as Week 1 Play of the Day, considering it won the game for the Denver Broncos. If you haven’t yet seen it, it’s pretty incredible. Down 7-6, Denver was backed up around its own 20, having under 0:30 to try to get into field goal range.

Brandon Stokley helped them do far better than a field goal.

As the video shows below, Kyle Orton tries to connect with Brandon Marshall, the ball gets tipped up into the air, and Brandon Stokley serendipitously snatches it and runs the length of the field for a touchdown. 

What an awful way to lose if you are a Benglas fan.

Of course, the play is made doubly great for football fans because Gus Johnson was assigned to the game. Not that Gus Johnson needs amazing game-winning plays like this to inject some excitement into the proceedings.

Video: Brandon Stokley Game-Winning TD Catch for Broncos over Bengals

The next play is no less impressive from a physical standpoint, but did not have the effect that Stokley’s TD catch had.

And unfortunately it came against my Browns.

Adrian Peterson, simply put, is an absolute beast. Despite having a pretty ho-hum first half, Peterson exploded in the second half, especially during the decisive 3rd quarter. The Vikings imposed their will on the Browns and pounded them into submission with a steady dose of the NFL’s best player.

This run, which includes an impressive stiff arm, and then Peterson actually coming to nearly a complete stop as he jukes a Browns defender before accelerating to the endzone, is all the evidence anyone should need to realize that Adrian Peterson is just on another level.

Video: Adrian Peterson Stiff-Arm and TD Run for Vikings Against Browns

Not even thirty minutes after posting my Browns-Vikings preview, I open up TweetDeck and learn that Browns rookie RB James Davis was injured in a one-car accident this morning and is now questionable for tomorrow’s game.

From ESPN.com’s article about James Davis’ car accident (hat tip to The Gnuru):

Cleveland Browns rookie tailback James Davis was involved in a one-car collision Saturday morning at approximately 8 a.m. ET while driving to the team’s practice facility, and he is now listed as questionable for Sunday’s season debut against the Minnesota Vikings.

Davis was held at a Cleveland-area hospital for observations and released shortly after on Saturday. The team listed the ailment as a head injury, making his status up in the air Sunday.

I couldn’t find any more details about the accident, but it doesn’t sound like there are any nefarious details. Luckily Davis appears to have avoided any serious injury, but it would certainly hinder the Browns’ ability to get a ground attack going tomorrow if Davis can’t play.

More details to come, if there are any.

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009’s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

• Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
• Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
• Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
• StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
• StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

• The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
• The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007’s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

• Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
• James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
• The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

• Brandon McDonald led the team with five
• Sean Jones had four
• Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
• Mike Adams had two
• Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

• Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
• Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
• Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

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* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday, September 4, 7:00 p.m. ET

Favorite: Buccaneers -3

A good question to ask in preseason football is “What do these guys have to play for?” In Houston’s case, the answer is “not much.” All their offensive skill players are locked into their starting roles with little to no competition and the Texans will almost certainly sit their top guys to keep them fresh for NFL week 1 betting.

The Bucs, however, have a bit of motivation. After Byron Leftwich “won” the starting quarterback job, both Luke McCown and Josh Freeman will want to show that they’re the better choice to start at pivot. Running back Cadillac Williams is third on Tampa’s depth chart but there’s been talk of a committee and he could use Friday’s game to audition for a role in it. Pick the hungrier Bucs.

Betting services recommend: Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Friday, September 4, 8:00 p.m. ET

Favorite: Vikings -3

The Cowboys’ situation is similar to Houston’s. Do you really think anyone will unseat Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Jason Witten and DeMarcus Ware at their positions? Of course not. The star players have no threats to their jobs and won’t play, so the Cowboys will field a team of subs with little motivation to win. In addition to home field, the Vikings have a least a couple players with extra motivation. Sage Rosenfels wouldn’t mind lighting up the Cowboys to show up Brett Favre, the man who stole his job. Meanwhile, super backup running back Chester Taylor could earn himself a bigger role in the offense if he impresses. Bet on Minnesota.

Betting services recommend: Vikings

San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

Friday, September 4, 10:00 p.m. ET

Forget drinkin’ the Kool-Aid; everyone’s drinkin’ the coffee – Glen Coffee – this preseason. The explosive back leads the NFL in rushing over the first three weeks and should see extensive time Friday filling in for starter Frank Gore. The Chargers have little to prove and their second-string skill players are nothing special, so the 49ers could surprise and outscore the home team. Take a flier on San Fran in your NFL picks.

Betting services recommend: 49ers

During last night’s Vikings-Texans preseason game, Brett Favre – the 40 year old QB who claims to have a lingering arm injury and a potentially broken rib – was split out wide and throwing blocks when the Vikings went to their Wildcat formation.

Not only was Favre’s chop block totally wrong, but the decision to even have him in that position is totally wrong. I realize that this is probably a refrain that Vikings fans are sick of hearing, but what the hell is Brad Childress thinking?

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The video of Favre’s chop block on Eugene Wilson is below, courtesy of the good folks at Black Sports Online.

Brett Favre Dirty Illegal Crackback Block on Eugene Wilson Texans vs. Vikings from BlackSportsOnline on Vimeo.

Look, no one thinks that Brett Favre is a dirty player, but he has definitely never been accused of over-thinking on the football field. His role on this play is to block and help open up the left side of Percy Harvin. I am sure it was just instinct that led him to dive low in an effort to – at least in his own mind – protect himself. Without question, I think he’d do it differently if he could.

For that reason, I blame Chilly far more than I blame Brett. Favre is a QB, not a blocker.  And I realize the Vikings want to incorporate some Wildcat this year with the dynamic Percy Harvin on the roster, but why not do it with Brett Favre on the sideline? Or, at worst, tell him to run out wide and then stay as far the hell away from any defenders as possible.

If you want to do a play like this in a key situation in the regular season, and Favre wants to go all out to throw a block, fine. (Obviously he needs to use better, less dangerous technique next time.) But putting Favre in that position in the preseason is at best negligence, and at worst a sign of complete idiocy on the part of Brad Childress and the Vikings coaching staff.

I know that the Vikings offense, led by Adrian Peterson and steady play from Favre, looked good last night. But if the Vikings coaches continue to make idiotic decisions like they did last night, it will not spell success for the Vikes in 2009.

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* – Brad Childress photo credit: VikingsGab