So even though many teams took the week off due to finals, I am taking the opportunity to hand out some progress reports of my own.

The Bottoms Line: Stock Up

BYU

While the Cougars haven’t beaten anyone ranked higher than 90th in the Pomeroy Ratings, they are 8-1 since a season-opening loss to Utah State, winning each game by at least 14 points.  Noah Hartsock, Charles Abouo, and Brandon Davies are all averaging at least 10 points and six rebounds, and the team is knocking down nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc, proving there really is life after Jimmer.

With Gonzaga struggling, the WCC is definitely up for grabs, and the Cougars will certainly be a factor.  Saturday’s matchup with Baylor will be a challenge, but it’s also a chance to pick up a marquee win.

Indiana

Saturday’s thrilling win over Kentucky vaulted the Hoosiers back into the polls and gave Tom Crean and the program the signature win and the signature moment they’ve been longing for.  New Bloomington folk hero Christian Watford has been a different player since the second half of the North Carolina State game, and the team continues to get contributions from a number of different players.

If IU can avoid a hangover against Notre Dame this weekend, they should be 12-0 heading into Big Ten play.  Their first three league games are as tough as they come with a road trip to Michigan State followed by home dates against Ohio State and Michigan.

Marshall

With Memphis struggling, the Herd is starting to look like the C-USA favorite.  They won in overtime at Cincinnati and lost by just six at Syracuse before beating a solid Iona team by 19.  A two-point home loss to Ohio is the other blemish on their record, but if they can navigate a home-and-home with Belmont, the Herd could be 11-2 before the conference opener against UTEP.

Led by juco transfer Dennis Tinnon and Robert Goff, Marshall leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, which has helped to offset poor outside shooting.  Guards DeAndre Kane and Damier Pitts have combined to average 29.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 2.9 steals between them.

Michigan State

Led by a career-high 34 points from Draymond Green, the Spartans picked up a big road win at Gonzaga and extended their win streak to eight games.  Green was superb, hitting 11-of-13 from the field, including 4-of-5 from beyond the arc.

Michigan State continues to get it done with tough defense and relentless rebounding, and while the offense remains a work in progress, there are signs of improvement.  The team has scored at least 1.04 points per possession in each of the last five games after doing so just once in their first five contests.  Look for Sparty’s win streak to be at 11 games when they open conference play against the aforementioned Hoosiers.

Northern Iowa

Many predicted a two-horse race in the Missouri Valley between Creighton and Wichita State, but it would seem the Panthers have other ideas.  Despite a couple key losses from last season’s roster, Northern Iowa has been able to maintain a high level of play thanks to a number of talented long-range shooters and solid team defense.  Junior guard Anthony James is averaging 18.7 points over the last six contests, and fellow junior Jake Koch is playing some of his best basketball as well.

The Panthers have a tough matchup against Ohio on Tuesday, but the early part of their MVC slate should allow them to get off to a good start.

The Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Belmont

The Bruins dropped a close game on the road against Middle Tennessee State, and it looks more and more like they’ll need to win the Atlantic Sun Tournament in order to make the Big Dance.  Things are shaping up much like they did last season for Belmont when they piled up 30 wins but were ultimately undone by a low RPI and lack of quality wins.  They need to sweep their upcoming home-and-home series with Marshall to have any hope of an at-large bid, because they have just one other game remaining against a team in Pomeroy’s Top 150.

Creighton

Last weekend’s loss to Saint Joe’s prompted me to look a little closer at the Bluejays.  So while they have a superb talent in Doug McDermott and are leading the nation in effective field goal percentage, defense is a concern.  As their level of competition has increased, so has Creighton’s defensive struggles.  Three of their past four opponents have scored at least 1.10 points per possession, and they have also struggled on the glass during that stretch.

Creighton can definitely outscore people, but the defense has to improve if they want to make noise in March.  The MVC race should be entertaining as usual with Creighton, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State all in contention.

Memphis

The fact that the Tigers already have three losses is one thing, but it’s hard to begrudge them for losses to Michigan and Georgetown, both of whom are ranked in both polls.  However, no matter what you think of Murray State, that’s a team Memphis should be able to handle at home.

More than that, there just doesn’t seem to have been a ton of growth from this team.  Last season they came together at the end of year after it looked like they wouldn’t even make the tournament.  Given the young nucleus from that team, I expected that progress to continue, but they seem to have regressed instead.

The Tigers are getting manhandled on the glass, and four of their key players have relatively ugly efficiency numbers.  They have a chance to erase some of the disappointment when they travel to Louisville this weekend before a trip to Georgetown next Thursday.

Villanova

I wasn’t sold on the Wildcats coming into the season, but somehow I talked myself into them finishing seventh in the Big East.  That may still happen I suppose, but as it stands, they are just 6-4 with their best win coming in overtime against La Salle.  Outside of that, Nova hasn’t beaten anyone in Pomeroy’s Top 165.  That said, the only questionable loss came against Santa Clara in the 76 Classic.

Still, I am not sure many things suggest a turnaround for the Wildcats either.  They are among the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers, and their shooting, particularly from three-point range, has been pretty ugly.  Starting guards Maalik Wayns and Dominic Cheek are a combined 27-of-97 (27.8%) from deep, and their career numbers don’t suggest future improvement.

Washington

After dropping two games in New York, the Huskies have now lost three straight and four of their last five, and now big man Aziz N’Diaye is out for a few games with a knee injury.

Offensively, Terrence Ross and C.J. Wilcox have been terrific, with both guys averaging 16.5 points, shooting the ball well from the outside, and posting solid overall efficiency numbers.  The team has struggled with turnovers at times, and doesn’t get to the line very often, which may be a good thing since they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country.

Perhaps the bigger issue is on defense where they rank outside the Top 125 in each of Pomeroy’s four factors.  The Huskies aren’t forcing turnovers, and opponents are make frequent trips to the line while also hitting better than 36 percent from beyond the arc.  Freshman Tony Wroten’s evolution and maturity will go a long way toward determining this team’s fate, but right now his advanced stats are stunning – and not always in a good way.

The postives are a strong assist rate and the fact that he draws nearly eight fouls per 40 minutes.  However, his 35.7 usage rate is third in the country, but he is hitting just 51.9 percent from the stripe and turning the ball over at a high rate.  The good news is that the Pac-12 is wide open, so by no means are they at risk of getting left in the dust there.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

The ACC now has 13 losses, Cal got dumptrucked by Missouri, Long Beach State lost immediately following their signature win, and Memphis went 1-2 in Maui just to name a few.

The possibility also exists that I am the kiss of death, so to fans of this week’s “stock up” teams, consider yourselves warned.

Stocks Up

Alabama

The Tide rolled through the Puerto Rico Tipoff, beating Maryland, Wichita State, and Purdue by an average of 13 points.  With Tony Mitchell (14.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 41.2 3P%) and JaMychal Green (14.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 bpg), Alabama boasts one of the top frontcourt duos in the nation, and point guard Trevor Releford (12.0 ppg, 2.7 apg) is showing no signs of a sophomore slump.  Coach Anthony Grant is also getting decent contributions from his bench, but the Tide is really getting things done on the defensive end with the fifth-ranked defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings.

On the most recent addition of the Bottoms Line podcast, Troy Machir made the case that Alabama is the second-best team in the SEC, and based on how they have played so far, it’s hard to disagree.

Kansas

It was tough to know what to expect from the Jayhawks this season based on the amount of roster turnover, but so far they have been better than I expected.

The one thing that isn’t shocking is the play of Thomas Robinson (16.0 ppg, 12.0 rpg), who has logged a double-double in each of KU’s five games.  Outside of his 11 turnover performance in the Maui final, Tyshawn Taylor (16.0 ppg, 3.8 apg) has been a consistent contributor, and backcourt mate Elijah Johnson (11.6 ppg, 3.8 apg) has shown flashes as well.  The Jayhawks have also received solid contributions from Travis Releford and Jeff Withey, both of whom have played sparingly over the course of their careers.

With essentially a seven-man rotation, depth will be a concern, but Kansas should be right in the thick of things in the Big 12 once again.

Marquette

With Pitt struggling, Louisville sustaining injuries at an alarming rate, and Cincinnati losing to the likes of Presbyterian, the door is open for the Golden Eagles to rise to the top of the second tier of the Big East behind UConn and Syracuse.

Marquette won the Paradise Jam and currently ranks 11th in offensive efficiency and 24th on defense in the Pomeroy Ratings.  Seven players are averaging at least 7.0 points, and 10 players are logging double-digit minutes.  Darius Johnson-Odom (20.0 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.4 spg, 56.9 FG%, 44.0 3P%) and Jae Crowder (17.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.8 spg, 58.6 FG%, 40.0 3P%) are leading the way, but sophomore Vander Blue has bounced back from a disappointing freshman season with 12.2 points, 4.0 assists, and 2.2 steals per game.  Big men Davante Gardner and Chris Otule have combined to average 15.4 points and 9.6 rebounds to provide an additional presence inside, and Junior Cadougan is dishing out 6.4 assists.

The Golden Eagles have another huge test at Wisconsin on December 3rd, and a win there would further validate their early season success.

Mississippi State

I have to give credit where credit is due.  After a disappointing home loss to Akron, the Bulldogs bounced back with two solid wins at Madison Square Garden against Texas A&M and Arizona.  There are still going to be some ups and downs from MSU this season, but the roster isn’t short on talent.

Arnett Moultrie (15.2 ppg, 11.2 rpg) is a relentless rebounder, and point guard Dee Bost (16.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.3 spg) has done a decent job cutting back on his turnovers in the past couple games.  Freshman Rodney Hood (12.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 41.7 3P%) has been impressive as well, and his 20 points helped the team to a win over Louisiana-Monroe with Moultrie and the much-maligned Renardo Sidney out with injuries.

Again, consistency will never be the calling card of this team, but they have a chance to make some noise in the SEC.

Missouri

I was very skeptical of the Frank Haith hire, but after beating Notre Dame and Missouri by a combined 68 points, he deserves some credit.

Without Laurence Bowers, the team is relying heavily on Ricardo Ratliffe (11.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) inside, while a slew of talented guards and wings are pouring in points and leading a team shooting over 46 percent from beyond the arc.  Marcus Denmon (19.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 44.4 3P%), Kim English (16.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 60.0 3P%), and Flip Pressey (12.2 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.0 spg, 41.7 3P%) have all been superb, propelling the Tigers to Top 10 rankings in effective field goal percentage and turnover rate.

The Tigers have also maintained their reputation as a tough defensive squad, and the top tier of the Big 12 is shaping up to be a real slugfest.

Oregon State

With the bulk of the Pac-12 struggling, the Beavers have one of the league’s few solid wins thanks to an overtime victory over Texas.  Sure the Longhorns are down, but Oregon State followed that up with a last-second loss to Vanderbilt, proving they will be a tough out this year.

Jared Cunningham (22.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.2 spg) is an electrifying player who is starting to get his due on a national level.  He’s already shot a staggering 62 free throws this season and is due for another highlight reel dunk anyday now.  Forward Devon Collier is also contributing 16.6 points per game, and four other players are chipping in better than seven points per contest.

The remainder of the non-conference schedule is manageable, so the Beavers could enter Pac-12 play with just one loss.

Saint Louis

The Billikens are doing their best to prove the A-10 isn’t just a two-team race between Xavier and Temple.  They beat Washington by 13 and won their opening game in the 76 Classic.  If they can beat Villanova in the semi-finals, they have a decent shot to win the whole thing.

The inside-outside duo of Brian Conklin (17.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 63.2 FG%) and Kwamain Mitchell (14.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.8 apg, 43.5 3P%) is leading the team offensively, while a stingy defense has been shutting down opponents with regularity.  This is easily Rick Majerus’ best team since taking the helm, and if they can get another player or two to become consistent contributors on offense, look out.

San Diego State

Without Kawhi Leonard, Malcom Thomas, D.J. Gay, and Billy White, it was natural to predict a down year for the depleted Aztecs, but after a home victory against Long Beach State and a road win over Arizona, they are going to be a factor in the Mountain West after all.

Guards Chase Tapley (16.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, 3.1 spg, 55.6 3P%) and Jamaal Franklin (16.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way for the Aztecs, but a defense ranked 20th in the Pomeroy Ratings has helped to offset some of their offensive shortcomings.  Upcoming games against Cal and Creighton will provide additional opportunities to pick up impressive non-conference wins, but the MWC is shaping up to be a three-team race among SDSU, UNLV, and New Mexico.

Stock Down

Cincinnati

For a team that didn’t go out of its way to construct a challenging non-conference schedule, the loss to Presbyterian looks that much worse.

The Bearcats blew a double-digit lead in the second half against the Blue Hose in what is the season’s biggest upset to date.  The lack of bench production is a huge concern for Mick Cronin with no one outside of the starting five scoring better than 4.0 points per game.

UC’s two toughest games left in the non-conference are at home against Marshall and at Xavier, so remaining opportunities for marquee wins outside of the Big East are limited to say the least.

Fairfield

Early losses to Providence and Minnesota, coupled with impressive play from Iona, aren’t great signs for the Stags’ at-large chances come March. Fairfield won their opener in the Old Spice Classic, and a rematch with the Gophers may await them if they make the finals, but it is imperative the Stags pick up some decent victories in the remainder of their non-conference slate which features games with Old Dominion, Connecticut, and Drexel.

While the team has maintained their level of play on the defensive end, there is still work to be done offensively.  The quartet of Rakim Sanders (17.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 52.9 FG%), Ryan Olander (13.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.0 bpg), Maurice Barrow (12.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 55.6 FG%), and Derek Needham (9.2 ppg, 2.8 apg) is doing nearly all of the team’s scoring, but as a team they’re doing a very poor job of getting to the free throw line.  Fairfield also needs to take better care of the ball, because their offense simply has to become more efficient if they want to challenge Iona for the MAAC title.

CAA

Traditionally one of the top non-BCS leagues, the CAA has been brutal so far this year.

Drexel was picked as one of the favorites to win the league, but they lost to Norfolk State and then were held to 35 points against Virginia.  Once Chris Fouch and Tavon Austin are back from injury, their offense should improve.  Quite frankly, it can’t get much worse.

George Mason was expected to be one of the other top teams, but they have lost to Florida International and Florida Atlantic so far, fueling the argument that Paul Hewitt simply isn’t a great coach.

The other top teams in the league haven’t fared well either.  Old Dominion lost at home to Northern Iowa and Vermont, while VCU lost by double digits to Seton Hall and Georgia, both of whom are expected to finish toward the bottom of their respective conferences.

It’s too early to know for sure, but the CAA has the early look of a one-bid league.

Memphis

The Tigers came dangerously close to leaving Maui with three losses, but they managed to hang on for an overtime win against Tennessee.

With the exception of a woeful offensive rebounding percentage, Memphis is playing relatively well on the offensive end.  However, their defense has been abysmal, making stars out of guys like Jeronne Maymon and Henry Sims in the process.  Sophomore big man Tarik Black has been unable to stay out of foul trouble, and that’s one area where the Tigers just don’t have much depth.

Overall though, seven players are scoring at least 7.8 points per game, and Josh Pastner is trying to work out his rotation.  Still, the Tigers can’t rely on simply outscoring their opponents every game, so they need to make strides on defense over the next few games, all of which are winnable.

New Mexico

As I mentioned above with San Diego State, the Lobos were projected as one of the league’s top teams, but they have now lost two of their first four games, at home against in-state rival New Mexico State and in the 76 Classic against Santa Clara.  New Mexico State has emerged as the favorite in the WAC and Santa Clara is better than many people realize, but it’s still not a reassuring start for Steve Alford’s squad.

Soph Tony Snell (14.3 ppg, 42.9 3P%) has played well, but the team’s two stars, Drew Gordon (10.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and Kendall Williams (9.5 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.8 spg), have struggled with their shooting.  Nine players are averaging at least 14 minutes, but ultimately the team will go as far as Gordon and Williams can take them.  I’ll be interested to see how they respond over the remainder of the 76 Classic.

Pac-12

UCLA’s struggles both on and off the court have been well publicized, and while they have been an unmitigated disaster, the Bruins aren’t the only Pac-12 team off to a rough start.  Arizona dropped two games and has some issues with its talented freshman class, Cal got smoked by Missouri, Oregon’s top newcomer Jabari Brown has elected to transfer, and Washington lost by double digits to Saint Louis in its first real test.  In all, the conference has 23 losses, 14 of which have come against non-BCS teams.

Other than that, things are great.

Virginia

Many people (myself included) touted the Cavs as a potential sleeper team in the ACC.  And then they went and lost to TCU in their first game of the Paradise Jam.  They rebounded to beat Drexel and Drake but missed out on the chance to prove their mettle against Marquette in the finals.

Virginia plays at one of the slowest paces in all of college hoops, and while their defensive efficiency numbers have been solid, it’s another story on offense.  After hitting nearly 39 percent from deep last season, the Cavs have made just 33 percent from beyond the arc while seeing a drastic increase in their turnover rate.

Even though Tony Bennett is playing a number of guys, just two of them are scoring over 6.6 points per game.  Mike Scott (14.8 ppg, 10.0 rpg) looks healthy again and soph Joe Harris (12.4 ppg, 2.4 apg) has been fairly consistent in the backcourt, but other players have to step up and make outside shots based on how this team is constructed.

Wichita State

The Shockers didn’t necessarily play poorly in Puerto Rico, losing by 10 to Alabama and in overtime to Temple, but it could be deja vu for Wichita State fans.

Last season they endured a couple near misses in Maui, but in the end, their lack of quality non-conference wins was their undoing in terms of at-large consideration.  The Shockers did beat Colorado and they have games remaining against UAB, UNLV, and Utah State at home with a road trip to Tulsa mixed in.  Three players are scoring in double figures, but the team could stand to get to the line more often after attempting just 17 free throws per game so far.

So far, Creighton looks like the MVC team with the best chance to earn an at-large bid, but the Shockers’ play over the next month could change that.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

In all seriousness, there are things to be gleaned from these early season matchups when looking both at specific teams and conferences.

Each week throughout the season, I’ll use this stock watch column to highlight the risers and fallers in the college hoops world.  I’ll also be participating in Daily Joust’s weekly fantasy college basketball game and publishing weekly power ratings starting in December, but I think it’s a bit premature to start in on that now.

Stock Up

ACC

Through Wednesday’s games, the 26-0 ACC is the only league without a blemish on its record this year, so I want to give credit where credit is due.

However, outside of Duke’s wins over Belmont and Michigan State and UNC’s Carrier Classic victory, there aren’t any marquee wins on the conference resume. In fact, they are currently the third-ranked league from a Pomeroy perspective behind the Big Ten and Big East.

California

While a couple of the Pac-12 contenders are off to slow starts, that has not been the case for the Bears.  They have won each of their three games by at least 17 points, and many of them weren’t as “close” as the final score would indicate.

Super soph Allen Crabbe is off to a hot start with 16.7 points per game, but perhaps the most important thing for Cal is that players not named Crabbe, Jorge Gutierrez, and Harper Kamp are stepping up.

Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs is contributing 9.0 points and 4.3 assists, and fellow guard Brandon Smith is chipping in 7.0 points and 3.3 assists of his own.  Throw in the frontcourt contributions of Richard Solomon (6.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and David Kravish (6.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), and the Bears are looking a bit deeper than expected so far.

Outside of mid-December games against Weber State and UNLV, the schedule is manageable, so look for Cal to start climbing the rankings.

Cleveland State

It would be easy to write the Vikings off after losing star guard Norris Cole, but the team still believes they are the favorites in the Horizon League based on the other talent they have returning.  Their performance on the road at Vanderbilt certainly backed up those claims, as they jumped on the Commodores early and never really let them back in the game.

D’Aundray Brown has come back with a vengeance after a medical redshirt last season with 42 points, 17 rebounds, and 14 steals in two games.  CSU has plenty of depth, and they have really embraced Gary Waters’ coaching style, as evidenced by their toughness on the defensive end.  Their non-conference schedule is also workable, although an upcoming road trip to Kent State will be a challenge.

Indiana

You can call me a homer on this one, but the Hoosiers haven’t won three straight games by over 20 points since December of 2007.  Cody Zeller has been a huge factor with 12.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game while hitting over 80 – yes, 80 – percent from the field.

Zeller gives IU a different look on offense, but it’s important to note how impressive the defense has been as well. They have been getting tons of deflections, and Victor Oladipo has asserted himself as a lockdown defender as well as a consistent and aggressive contributor on offense.

Image credit: Darron Cummings / AP via Times Union

With the Big Ten jumbled in the middle, the opportunity is there for the Hoosiers. Their toughest non-conference stretch starts later this month when they face Butler, NC State, Kentucky, and Notre Dame over a five-game span (with Stetson mixed in).

Long Beach State

I mentioned in my profile of the 49ers the murderer’s row that is their non-conference schedule.  They passed their first test with flying colors by winning at Pittsburgh and breaking the Panthers’ lengthy non-conference home winning streak.  The Beach took the lead for good with about five minutes left in the first half, led by star guard Casper Ware who finished with 28 points and six assists.

Coach Dan Monson boasts one of the most experienced teams in the nation, and while it’s awfully early to start contemplating LBSU’s at-large chances, this win will certainly hold weight with the committee.  The 49ers can’t afford to savor it for too long though with road trips looming to Louisville, Kansas, and North Carolina as well as a home date with Xavier.

Memphis

After picking Memphis to lose to Belmont, I have to give props to the Tigers for their 16-point win.

Three players had over 20 points in the win, led by Will Barton with 23 and Wesley Witherspoon with 22 points including a perfect 8-of-8 from the field.  Throw in 20 points and seven assists from soph Joe Jackson and a terrific 20:9 assist-to-turnover ratio, and you have a pretty impressive performance from the young Tigers.

The only red flag was the fact that they were outrebounded, but part of that had to do with Tarik Black getting into foul trouble.  Still, it displays just how talented this team can be if they can maintain this level of play.  Memphis will certainly have a chance to prove that in Maui next week.

MAC

It seems like Akron and Kent State are always battling things out in the MAC Finals come March, but they seem to be working hard to one-up each other already this season. Akron pulled off a big road win against Mississippi State during the season’s first week, and Kent State knocked off West Virginia in Morgantown as part of the Tipoff Marathon.

Through two games, the Zips have four players averaging at least 11 points and eight guys scoring at least five per contest.  They have non-conference games remaining at home against Detroit and VCU and on the road versus West Virginia, Cleveland State, and Marshall.

The Flashes were led by Carlton Guyton with 17 points in there opener to go with 12 points and eight boards from reigning MAC Player of the Year Justin Greene.  Their toughest non-conference games remaining are home dates with Cleveland State and UAB before a December road trip to the Spectrum to face Utah State.

MVC

The Missouri Valley is always one of the nation’s top mid-major conferences, and they got off to a relatively impressive start once again.

Despite just four points from star Kyle Weems, Missouri State won by 23 at Nevada.  Evansville beat Butler in OT, and Northern Iowa won by double-digits at Old Dominion.  Since then Evansville got dismantled by IU, and UNI played poorly against Saint Mary’s.  However, conference favorite Creighton picked up a nice road win at UAB, and Drake beat Iowa State.

In the end, Creighton and Wichita State are still the teams to beat, but the early season success of the MVC as a whole will pay dividends down the road come Selection Sunday.  All indications are that the MVC will once again be one of the top couple leagues outside of the six major conferences.

Stock Down

Belmont

Before anyone accuses me of being a fair weather fan, hear me out.

The Bruins played really well at Duke and had chances to win down the stretch before eventually losing by one. In their second game, they were overwhelmed by Memphis’ length and athleticism and lost by double digits.  So do I still think they are one of the Top 30 teams in the country?  Absolutely.

The issue, as Ken Pomeroy pointed out on Twitter, is that Belmont has precious few opportunities to pick up resume-building wins from here on out.  They do have a home-and-home series against Marshall, but keep in mind this team won 30 games last season and still finished just outside of the RPI Top 50.  The Atlantic Sun competition will not help that this season, so they are putting themselves in a position where they may have to win the A-Sun Tournament to get into the Big Dance.

Detroit

On this week’s Bottoms Line podcast, I compared Detroit to Vanderbilt in the sense that they have this core group of guys who has been together for a while, but they continue to underachieve in big games.

The Titans had a golden opportunity to pick up an impressive early season win against a Notre Dame team playing without Tim Abromaitis.  Detroit got off to a decent start and led by eight with just over 14 minutes remaining in the game before losing by six.

I realize the Titans were playing without Eli Holman, but their shot selection was abysmal at times.  Instead of jacking up off-balance jumpers, they would have been better served to feed LaMarcus Lowe inside.  Add to that the impressive early performance from Cleveland State, and Detroit’s dreams of winning the Horizon League are starting to look shaky.

Mississippi State

It’s business as usual in Starkville.  Renardo Sidney remains an enigma after playing sparingly in key stretches of MSU’s early games and then attributing some of his struggles to a groin injury, which did cause him to miss the game against South Alabama.

The bright spot has been Arnett Moultrie, who is coming off of a career game that saw him go for 28 points and 13 boards.  Through three games, Dee Bost has more turnovers than assists, and the team is shooting under 30 percent from long range.

The Bulldogs have the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic over the next couple days, so it will be interesting to see how they respond against major conference foes.

Nevada

In what was expected to be somewhat of a down year for Utah State, Nevada seemed like the favorite to win the WAC.  So much for that theory. They were blown out at home by a Missouri State team picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the MVC, then fell behind by as many as 18 against UNLV before a late rally fell short.

It’s an understatement to say that the team has really struggled with their shooting. Dario Hunt averaged 12.4 points last season but is just 2-of-16 from the field so far. Guard Malik Story was expected to lead the team in scoring, but he is now 8-of-28 from the field following his 6-of-20 debacle against UNLV.  Shot selection is certainly a factor there, and there seemed to be no recognition that fellow guard Deonte Burton was the only one in any kind of offensive rhythm against the Rebels.

Some of these issues will get better, but Hawaii, New Mexico State, and even Utah State will be right in the mix with Nevada atop to the WAC.

Pittsburgh

Long Beach State deserves a ton of credit for how well they played against Pitt, but don’t forget that the Panthers also struggled with Rider for a while in their second contest. Defensively, Pitt allowed 1.32 points per possession against LBSU, which was the worst ever under Jamie Dixon (h/t @RunTheFloor).  That’s pretty alarming for a team known for their defense and toughness, as is the fact that the 49ers outrebounded them.

The other red flag is the complete lack of bench production, as evidenced by just two bench points against Long Beach State.  Part of this can be attributed to a youthful team, and ultimately I think Dixon will get things turned around.

UCLA

I don’t recall the last time I saw a team implode so quickly, and the Bruins have quickly ascended to the top of the dumpster fire spectrum.

First, the Bruins were upset by Loyola Marymount in their opener last week, and they promptly got dumptrucked by 20 against Middle Tennessee State.  The guard play has been incredibly poor, with their main backcourt players combining to go 18-of-63 (28.6%).  As a team, UCLA is shooting 17.1 percent from deep.

Meanwhile, Josh Smith, or West Coast Renardo as I have taken to calling him, is still woefully out of shape, but he still found time to tweet about the “bums” he lost to.  Reeves Nelson was also suspended for a game for his attitude but has already been reinstated as the team heads to Maui. Given the field as well as the way they are playing, the opener against Chaminade might be the only game they win there.

Ultimately this team lacks a leader who can help pull them out of this, and based on what I have seen so far, I don’t see one emerging either.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

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For those of you have always wished that you could parlay your college basketball passion and knowledge into fantasy glory, now you can. Daily Joust has weekly fantasy college basketball games, including periodic freeroll tournaments. Jerod and I will be participating, and we invite you to as well. (Click here)

I’m too old to stay up for the whole thing, but for those of you wishing to check it out, I can offer you two things: 1) a link to the complete schedule of the games and commentators and 2) my thoughts and predictions for each contest.

Washington State at #23 Gonzaga – 12:00 AM EST (ESPN)

The Zags had to come back from a second-half deficit to beat Eastern Washington in their opener.  Gonzaga’s big men were the difference with Robert Sacre and Elias Harris combining for 38 points and 18 rebounds, and both should give the Cougars fits inside.

Gonzaga still needs someone to emerge at the point (see 11 assists and 17 turnovers in the opener), while the backcourt duo of Reggie Moore and Faisal Aden forms the strength of Wazzu. Both players are a little banged up already, so it’s difficult to predict how effective they might be.  The Cougars are picked to finish toward the bottom of the Pac-12, and it’s going to take time for them to find their stride without Klay Thompson around to pace the offense.

• Gonzaga-Washington State Pick: Gonzaga

Northern Iowa at Saint Mary’s – 2:00 AM EST (ESPN)

Both teams come in 1-0, and Northern Iowa’s win at Old Dominion was an impressive way to get their season started.  In fact, the MVC had a few solid performances over the weekend, with Missouri State winning by 23 at Nevada and Evansville knocking off Butler in OT.  The Panthers hit nearly 40 percent from deep but got to the free throw line just seven times.

Meanwhile, the Gaels beat Fresno Pacific by 40, led by a career-high 25 from Rob Jones.  Eight players scored at least six points, and the team tallied 25 assists on 35 made field goals.  Jones will likely lead the team in scoring, but the player to watch is Matthew Dellavedova, one of the nation’s most underrated guards. 

• Northern Iowa-Saint Mary’s Pick: Saint Mary’s

Cal State Northridge at Hawaii – 4:00 AM EST (ESPN)

Cal State Northridge lost their opener to USC and is expected to finish toward the bottom of the Big West, while Hawaii is breaking in a number of new players but is a potential sleeper team in the WAC.  The Rainbow Warriors have a solid frontcourt tandem with Vander Joaquim and Josten Thomas, but guard Zane Johnson should lead them in scoring after averaging nearly 16 points last year and knocking down over 40 percent from deep. 

• Cal State Northride-Hawaii Pick: Hawaii

Drexel at Rider – 6:00 AM EST (ESPN)

The Dragons are one of the preseason favorites to win the Colonial, while Rider got blown out by Robert Morris in their opener before surprisingly testing Pitt in their second contest.  But when the game starts at 6:00 AM, you can throw out the records.

It’s hard to believe this will be Bruiser Flint’s 11th year at the helm for Drexel, and it’s easily one of his most talented teams.  Forward Samme Givens averaged a double-double last season and is a monster on the offensive glass despite his 6-foot-5 frame.  Look for Givens, guard Chris Fouch, and a tenacious Drexel defense to be the difference here.

It’s also worth noting that Andy Katz and Doug Gottlieb will be calling this game.  Here’s hoping Katz makes it through the marathon in a bit better shape than he did a couple years ago, when it looked and sounded like he had been drug behind a truck for its duration. 

• Drexel-Rider Pick: Drexel

Morehead State at College of Charleston – 8:00 AM EST (ESPN)

No offense to this year’s squads, but this game is a year too late now that Kenneth Faried and Andrew Goudelock are gone.  Morehead State got blown out by NC State on Sunday, which means a quick turnaround for this early morning tilt.  Charleston beat Holy Cross by nine in their opener and placed four guys in double figures, led by 18 points from Antwaine Wiggins and a double-double from Trent Wiedeman.

One guy to watch here is freshman Adjehi Baru, who posted 11 points and eight boards in his debut, but 17 turnovers compared to nine assists is a potential red flag.  Perhaps most importantly this is a rare opportunity to inject some Stephen Bardo into your morning routine.  I’ll let you decide whether that is a good thing or not. 

• Morehead State-College of Charleston Pick: College of Charleston

Kent State at West Virginia – 10:00 AM EST (ESPN)

West Virginia held off a tough Oral Roberts team in their opener, but they were thoroughly outrebounded and had 21 turnovers in the process.  Kevin Jones got his senior year off to a good start with 20 points and eight boards, and the Mountaineers got some nice contributions from their freshmen with Aaron Brown, Gary Browne, and Jabarie Hinds combining for 28 points, 12 assists, seven rebounds, and six steals.

Kent State watched rival Akron knock off Mississippi State in the opening week but has yet to play a game of their own.  The Zips bring back four starters from a team that won 25 games last season, led by MAC Player of the Year Justin Greene.  They also boast the reigning Defensive POY and Sixth Man and add Juco All-American Chris Evans to the mix.  The Flashes have players who can pressure the ball and give West Virginia fits on the glass, which makes this my upset special.

Bill Raftery is calling this one, so it’s a great chance for some “early onions!”

• Kent State-West Virginia Pick: Kent State

Belmont at #9 Memphis – 12:00 PM EST (ESPN)

The Bruins nearly pulled off a road win at Duke, but in the process they showed why so many people (including yours truly) are high on them this year.  Their second road trip is a shorter one and gives them another shot to pick up a signature win.

This will be Memphis’ first game of the season, and it will be interesting to see the strides their heralded sophomore class made in the offseason as well as highly-touted freshman Adonis Thomas.  Among a number of matchups to watch here is a point guard showdown between Belmont’s Kerron Johnson and Memphis’ Joe Jackson and a battle inside featuring BU’s Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders and Memphis soph Tarik Black.

Belmont clearly isn’t intimidated to play major programs away from home, and just to show I am firmly on the bandwagon, they’re upset number two.

In other good news, it’s way too early for Jimmy Dykes to pull out any kind of Jimmy’s Jet graphic while calling the game.  Thank God. 

• Belmont-Memphis Pick: Belmont

San Diego State at #12 Baylor – 2:00 PM EST (ESPN)

The Aztecs are in rebuilding mode after losing a ton from last year’s Top Five squad, but they are off to a 3-0 start.  They are led by guards Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin, who scored a career-high 31 points off the bench on Sunday.

Baylor is without top returnee Perry Jones as he serves a suspension for improper benefits, but freshman Quincy Miller has stepped up in his absence with 17 points in each of his first two games.  The Bears are absolutely loaded up front, while they are continuing to sort out their backcourt rotation before they get into the meat of their schedule.  Expect at least a couple highlight reel dunks from athletic forward Quincy Acy. 

• San Diego State-Baylor Pick: Baylor

Rhode Island at Texas – 4:00 PM EST (ESPN)

The Rams lost their opener in an overtime shootout with George Mason and are picked to finish in the lower half of the Atlantic 10.  Guard Jamal Wilson went off for 38 points in 41 minutes after scoring just 172 points over his first three seasons at URI, but what will he do for an encore?

The Longhorns blew out Boston in their first game, led by 28 points and eight assists from J’Covan Brown, one of the team’s only returning players.  A couple Texas freshmen to watch are point guard Myck Kabongo, who had seven dimes in his debut, and backcourt mate Julien Lewis, who poured in 18 points in the season-opening victory. 

• Rhode Island-Texas Pick: Texas

Florida International/George Mason at Virginia Tech – 6:00 PM EST (ESPNU)

GMU will be the likely opponent in this matchup and should provide a great test for the Hokies as part of the preseason NIT.  The Patriots have a terrific player in Ryan Pearson, who totaled 28 points and 12 boards in the opener, as well as guards Vertrail Vaughns and Sherrod Wright, both of whom scored 17 points.

Virginia Tech beat ETSU by 11 in their first game, although they played without top guard Errick Green, who sat out with an Achilles injury.  He said he hoped to miss only one game, and the Hokies will need him in this one.  Freshman Dorian Finney-Smith had an impressive debut for the VT with 10 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, and four blocks, so keep an eye on him.  Injuries have limited depth on a team that lost a lot from last season, and Va Tech shot poorly in the opener.  This should be one of the better games of the day.

• FIU/George Mason-Virginia Tech Pick: George Mason

#6 Duke vs. Michigan State – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN)

After facing North Carolina and Duke in their first two games, Michigan State might be looking for a new approach to scheduling.

It’s hard to know how many conclusions can be drawn from Sparty’s opener given the uniqueness of the venue, but I was certainly impressed with their effort on the glass, a staple of some of Tom Izzo’s best teams over the years.  While Draymond Green grabbed 18 rebounds, he also missed 13 shots and had five turnovers, so the Spartans need more from him offensively.  The same can be said of their backcourt tandem of Keith Appling and Brandon Wood, who combined for just 12 points and one assist.

Duke got quite a scare from Belmont before boatracing Presbyterian, which enabled Coach K to tie Bob Knight for the most all-time wins.  Through two games, the signs point toward Mason Plumlee becoming a reliable contributor, and freshman phenom Austin Rivers is already leading the team in scoring.  Seth Curry has been decent at the point, and Ryan Kelly has turned in a couple double-digit scoring efforts.  I’m still not sold on Duke from a defensive standpoint on the outside, but I’m also not sure Michigan State will be able to take full advantage of that.

I think the Spartans can keep it close with toughness and rebounding, but I just don’t see enough reliable scorers from them at this stage of the season. 

• Duke-Michigan State Pick: Duke

Albany/Brown at Syracuse – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

In the interest of space, I’m going to breeze through some of these ESPN3 tilts.  The Orange played nine guys at least 16 minutes in the opener and should win handily over either opponent.  I’m interested to see if soph Dion Waiters can keep up his hot streak after pouring in 14 in the opener.

• Albany/Brown-Syracuse Pick: Syracuse

Rutgers at Miami (FL) – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

I love the intensity of Rutgers coach Mike Rice, but they are relying heavily on younger players, particularly in the backcourt.  The Hurricanes are essentially the exact opposite with a number of talented guards but virtually no one inside thanks in large part to injury.  Consequently, I think Rutgers soph Gilvydas Biruta could give them some trouble inside, but the veteran backcourt of Miami should be the difference. 

• Rutgers-Miami Pick: Miami (FL)

LaSalle at Villanova – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

After going off for 27 points in the opener, I want to see what guard Dominic Cheek does for an encore.  Look for another big game from big man Mouphtaou Yarou as Nova rolls.

• LaSalle-Villanova Pick: Villanova

#10 Florida at #3 Ohio State – 8:00 PM EST (ESPN2)

These two teams won by a combined 71 points in their openers, but there were a few things to take away from those blowouts.

Florida’s quartet of guards was as advertised, scoring 62 points (including 11 made three-pointers) with 12 assists and just one turnover.  Patric Young logged a double-double inside to complement their strong outside game, but he will obviously have his hands full with Jared Sullinger.

Sullinger picked up right where he left off with 19 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks.  He made 10 free throws and even knocked down a three-pointer.  William Buford, Aaron Craft, and DeShaun Thomas were solid as expected, but Lenzelle Smith also played well.  He posted eight points, seven rebounds, and two steals in just 20 minutes, so I am interested to see if he can replicate that against tougher competition.

This should be one of the day’s most competitive games and your first chance to catch Dan Dakich on the mic this season. 

• Florida-Ohio State Pick: Ohio State

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Oklahoma State – 8:00 PM EST (ESPN3)

Let’s be honest, with the other games here you probably aren’t tuning in to this one.  But if you do, be sure to check out Oklahoma State’s LeBryan Nash, who scored 13 points in his debut and should be one of the nation’s top freshmen. 

• Arkansas-Pine Bluff-Oklahoma State Pick: Oklahoma State

#2 Kentucky vs. #13 Kansas – 9:00 PM EST (ESPN)

This will be the first chance to get a look at this year’s crop of Kentucky freshmen on national TV.

The Cats beat Marist by 50 in their first game, and first-year phenom Anthony Davis got his college career off to an impressive start with 23 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks.  The other three UK freshmen all scored at least 14 points, and soph Doron Lamb dished out eight assists.  I didn’t even mention preseason SEC Player of the Year Terrence Jones, who along with Davis will be charged with defending Kansas forward Thomas Robinson, who posted a double-double in KU’s opener.

The Jayhawks assisted on 30 of 41 made baskets, and deft passing will be critical if Kansas wants to bridge the talent and depth gap between these teams.  I’ll also be watching the leadership of Tyshawn Taylor and whether Travis Releford can continue his emergence after spending his first few seasons on the bench.

Brace yourself for Dickie V in this one, although is anyone else surprised he isn’t calling the game in which Coach K can earn his record-breaking win? 

• Kentucky-Kansas Pick: Kentucky

Austin Peay at #24 California – 10:00 PM EST (ESPN2)

The Governors come in 0-1 after losing by nine to Middle Tennessee State.  The guy to watch for them is TyShwan Edmondson who went for 20 points in the opener and averaged over 17 points a year ago.

The Bears feature a terrific backcourt duo in Allen Crabbe and Jorge Gutierrez.  Through two games, Crabbe has 45 points and has drained 9-of-17 from deep.  He’s one of the nation’s best emerging scorers, and he may well battle it out with Gutierrez for Pac-12 Player of the Year honors.  Gutierrez is one of my favorite players to watch and does a little of everything for this team, as evidenced by his 26 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists in the two Cal victories.  The combination of Crabbe and Gutierrez might be enough in this game, but the Bears really need other players to step up and be consistent contributors if they intend to challenge for the Pac-12 title.

Dave Flemming and Shawn Farnham will be calling their second game of the marathon after having called the Northern Iowa-Saint Mary’s tilt earlier in the day. 

• Austin Peay-California Pick: Cal

Colorado State/SMU at Stanford – 11:00 PM EST (ESPNU)

The Cardinal blew out Central Arkansas in their opener and should win handily over Fresno State on Monday.  Freshman Chasson Randle got his career off to a good start with 15 points, six rebounds, and four assists, while fellow guard Aaron Bright hit four out of five from deep.  Stanford also has Josh Owens inside, which should be enough to get past either potential opponent.  If SMU can beat Colorado State though, Owens may have his hands full inside with Robert Nyakundi.

• Colorado State/SMU-Stanford Pick: Stanford

Enjoy the games everyone.  College hoops is officially back!

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Memphis Tigers

Looking Back

Josh Pastner and the Tigers expected to rely heavily on a talented freshman class heading into last season, but injuries and unexpected departures led to an even heavier burden being placed on the youthful core of the team.  That youth showed itself at times over the course of a 25-10 season, but team pulled together to win the conference tournament and took Arizona down to the wire in the first round of the NCAAs.  Pastner now has 49 wins in two years at the helm, along with a battle-tested group of sophomores who are ready to take the next step.

Memphis finished 87^th in the Pomeroy Ratings, their lowest finish in quite some time.  Offensively, they had a sharp increase in their possessions per game thanks to a more uptempo attack, but a marked increase in turnover percentage, coupled with a huge dip in three-point shooting, dropped their offensive efficiency to 128^th.  On defense, they did a nice job of limiting their opponents’ effective field goal percentage and finished in the Top 25 for both block and steal percentage.  However, they allowed too many offensive rebounds and put their opponents on the line too often.

The lone departure from last season’s final roster is big man Will Coleman, who played just under 20 minutes per game and helped out primarily on the glass.

This Year’s Tigers

I’m going to tackle the sophomore class first, but just to warn you, this may take a bit.  Will Barton led the team in scoring as a freshman and was the team’s lone double figure scorer at 12.3 points per game.  He finished second on the team in rebounds and steals, and his 2.8 assists per game were good for third on the squad.  Barton took nearly 400 shots in his first season, but his 147 three-point attempts were too many for a guy converting at just a 26.5 percent clip from long range.  Still, Barton made better than 52 percent from two-point range and has room to improve at getting to the line.  There’s no questioning Barton’s talent, and it will be interesting to see how he has evolved and improved his game over the summer.

One guy whose game was on full display this summer was guard Joe Jackson, who led Team USA in assists for the U-19 team at the World Championships.  Jackson also averaged 11.6 points for that squad and finished second in free throw attempts.  As a freshman last season, he finished second on the team in scoring (9.9 ppg) and assists (3.1 apg) in less than 22 minutes per game.  Jackson’s usage rate was 52^nd in the nation, but he posted a Top 100 assist rate and drew nearly six fouls per 40 minutes, the latter of which led to a solid free throw rate.  The biggest blemish on Jackson’s season was an ugly turnover rate, but I think the Team USA experience gives Jackson some great momentum and confidence heading into his sophomore season.

On the inside, Tarik Black is the team’s lone returning force down low.  He led the team in rebounds and blocked shots and finished third in scoring despite playing just 22.6 minutes per game.  Foul trouble played a role in holding down his playing time as evidenced by his 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes.  However, his offensive rebound percentage ranked in the Top 40 and was somehow better than his defensive rebound percentage.  Black posted a strong block percentage and drew plenty of fouls.  He also connected on 52.8 percent of his shots, and if he can get his free throw percentage up into the mid-60s, the skills are there to average close to 15 points per game.

Guards Antonio Barton and Chris Crawford round out the sophomore class.  Barton, the less heralded of the two brothers, averaged 8.2 points and hit 44.2 percent from beyond the arc.  He posted a terrific overall offensive rating and will continue to be a key member of the rotation.  Crawford led the team in assists and steals to go with 6.6 points and 3.1 rebounds.  Poor shooting and an inflated turnover rate held his overall efficiency numbers down, but his experience last year will only benefit him as a sophomore.

Six-foot-nine swingman Wesley Witherspoon missed nine games last season following knee surgery.  In under 23 minutes per game, he still managed to score 9.0 points and grab 4.3 boards.  He shot the ball well from both two- and three-point range and got to the line 93 times compared to 125 field goal attempts.  Witherspoon’s overall efficiency numbers were similar to his breakout season in 2009-10, and at full strength, he becomes a difficult matchup for opponents due to his size and skill set.

Senior guard Charles Carmouche is the other key member of the rotation to return.  He canned nearly 40 percent from downtown and averaged 7.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals.  Carmouche will continue to get open looks from the outside thanks to multiple talented penetrators on the Memphis roster.

D.J. Stephens and Drew Barham also return for the Tigers.  Stephens played just 11.2 minutes per game but made 64.1 percent of his shots and posted solid offensive rebounding numbers.  Barham played sparingly but wasn’t shy about pulling the trigger once he entered the game.

After a knee injury forced him to take a medical redshirt, 6-foot-8 forward Hippolyte Tsafack is back at full strength.  He should help out with rebounding and shot blocking thanks to his explosive leaping ability.

The top newcomer is freshman Adonis Thomas, who chose to play his college ball close the home.  The 6-foot-6 forward has the versatility to punish defenders either off the dribble or down low and is a matchup nightmare for opposing coaches.  Thomas is a potential NBA lottery pick who is expected to start right away, so enjoy him at the college level while you can.

The other two new faces should help bolster a relatively thin frontcourt.  After transferring from Seton Hall, Ferrakohn Hall will be eligible in mid-December.  He doesn’t play much with his back to the basket, but he gives Pastner another experienced player to rotate up front.  Six-foot-ten big man Stan Simpson was one of the top junior college prospects after averaging 12.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks last season.  He originally committed to Illinois out of high school, but he provides another skilled big man for the Tigers should they opt to go with a bigger lineup than they were forced to play much of last season.

2011-12 Outlook

I’ve really been impressed with the job Pastner has done since taking the reigns from John Calipari, and with a more seasoned team, it will be interesting to see how far the Tigers can go this season.  There is no shortage of talent on the roster, which gives him the ability to juggle his lineups and create mismatches.

As has become customary, Memphis has a number of challenging games on the non-conference slate.  They play a talented Belmont team in the state-side portion of the Maui Invitational, then open with Michigan in the tournament’s first round.  A potential matchup with Duke looms in round two, so the Tigers will be tested early.  They also face road dates at Miami, Louisville, and Georgetown and play Xavier at home mid-season.

This team is loaded in the backcourt and on the wing with Will and Antonio Barton, Jackson, Witherspoon, Crawford and Thomas, who should win conference Freshman of the Year honors.  Outside of Black, there are some question marks up front, but the combination of Simpson, Hall, and Tsafack should be able to get the job done. Memphis will be ranked in many preseason Top 10 lists, and I expect them to earn that ranking along with a Top Three seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

* – Josh Pastner image source: BallinIsAHabit.net

This post will analyze the Memphis-Missouri game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

If John Calipari were to have read MSF over the past couple of weeks, he would know that I was not among those who thought Memphis should have received a #1 seed and that I picked the Tigers to lose in the second round. (And I predicted that loss to come against Cal, who lost in the first round to Maryland. Shows you how much I know.)

Of course, John Calipari has plenty of more important things to do than read our little blog here. On the off chance he did, he would probably just chalk our site up as another one of the haters and naysayers and not give it a second thought. Calipari is a pretty cool customer who does not seem to get rattled or frustrated in the face of people constantly doubting his team, or disparaging its conference and schedule.

Now, if John Chaney read MSF and I had been down on Temple, he might not be such a cool customer…

Video: John Chaney v John Calipari

Forgive me, I had to get that in there. It’s been years since I’ve seen that video, but it never gets old. If only we could have seen how the fight ended up…

But I digress.

Mike Anderson, the coach of Missouri, would probably not think much of this site either. I picked the Tigers to lose in the Big 12 tournament and I predicted a second round loss for them against Marquette. Obviously, neither happened.

So it is with great shame, humility, and surprise that I type this Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 preview. I did not expect either team to make it this far, yet here they are: my own personal bracket busters duking it out to ensure that I cannot have a perfect Elite 8 this year.

But you know what? I can’t wait for this game. These two teams play an entertaining style of basketball that should make this one of the more exciting Sweet 16 games this year. Here are the particulars for the Mizzou-Memphis matchup later this week:

Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: West Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• West Regional Breakdown
• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: Memphis -4 1/2
• Over-Under: 140
• My prediction (done before looking at the Bracket Predictor): Missouri

Let’s see how the Bracket Predictor sees this game going, based on the five statistical categories I submitted to the prediction engine:

• Offensive Efficiency: Memphis – 1.071 | Missouri – 1.097
• Defensive Efficiency: Memphis – 0.826 | Missouri – 0.913
• Assist/TO Ratio: Memphis – 1.149 | Missouri – 1.541
• Free Throw %: Memphis – 0.695 | Missouri – 0.668
• Defensive Field Goal %: Memphis – 0.366 | Missouri – 0.415

And based on these numbers, plus the strength of schedule factor that is automatically used to calculate the results, the Game Predictor sees the outcome as follows:

• Odds to Win Game: Memphis – 60.7% | Missouri – 39.3%
• Most Likely Final Score: Memphis – 70.6 | Missouri – 67.5
• Odds to Cover Spread (MIZZOU +4.5): Memphis – 42.8% | Missouri – 57.2%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

So, the Game Predictor sees this as being a closer matchup than UConn-Purdue and Pitt-Xavier, which one would expect. I am still a little bit surprised that Memphis’ odds are above 60%, and I completely agree that Missouri has a great chance to beat the spread in this one — if not win it outright.

Here is what I did not like about the Game Predictor analysis of this one: the historical comparisons (not shown in the images above). The majority of the teams Missouri was compared to were double-digit seeds. I don’t know exactly how these historical comparisons are generated, but the typical seed differentials of the ten comparisons provided was 6 or 7 seed slots. This game is a #2 seed versus a #3 seed, and two teams that I think are very, very comparable. Luckily, the final projection anticipates a close game that I project to be even closer.

Missouri plays a fast style of basketball, attacking on both ends of the court. I was shocked to see that their Assist/TO ratio is as good as it is. Obviously that number is driven by their great ability to pressure teams into turnovers; but it shows a strong ability on their part to protect the ball as well. Their high offensive rating shows that they are able to turn the majority of those turnovers into points.

Memphis, on the other hand, is not quite as strong in either category but still in the top 15% or so in the nation in both. And their defensive numbers are outstanding, with the best defensive efficiency and defensive field goal % ratings in the nation. My apologies to Coach Cal and the Memphis Tigers: I underestimated your ability on defense, otherwise I just might have had you advancing this far, if not further.

At the end of the day, I look at this game as a toss-up. Tyreke Evans has really improved Memphis as he has become more comfortable controlling the basketball as the season has gone on. He leads the team in points at 16.6 per game and also grabs 5.4 rebounds per. However, he also turns it over 3.6 times per game, only generating an Assist/TO ratio of 1.1/1. Antonio Anderson has been much more steady, with an Assist/TO of 2/1. Against the Missouri press, Evans will have to take better care of the basketball.

For Missouri, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons must continue to lead with excellent all-around play from the forward slots. If the Tigers can get a performance out of Matt Lawrence like they got against Marquette (16 points) it will make them that much more difficult to overcome.

My gut is still telling me that Missouri is going to win, but obviously the Game Predictor, using the stats I fed it, has a 3 Star confidence level on Memphis. Either way, one of these teams is going to surprise me by making it to the Elite 8, only to have me (most likely) pick against them on Saturday. Luckily for Memphis and Missouri, the opinions of some idiot blogger mean nothing and they have been able to prove their worth on the court.

When these two skilled, athletic, well-coached teams meet up on Thursday, it could very well provide the most exciting game of the weekend.

Unless you picked neither to be here and your bracket is toast.

Then it’s just depressing.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Tyreke Evans photo credit: AP Photo/Nick Wass

Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN