For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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1. Kansas City took down the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field with an unbelievably high scoring game of 10-3.
2. The Colts scored 24 points against the Patriots!! Of course, they still lost.
3. The Dallas Cowboys lost in overtime to the Arizona Cardinals because of a “field goal/timeout/missed field goal” mishap.
4. The Giants played their hearts out against the undefeated Green Bay Packers. Who would have thought that game was going to be such a nail biter? Certainly not me or I wouldn’t have made such a foolish bet.

Anyways…Let’s take a look at your Monday Night entertainment!

Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) decided to shake things up. Not only did they fire head coach Jack Del Rio, but owner Wayne Weaver announced the agreement to sell the team to businessman Shahid Khan.

Not to be left out, the San Diego Chargers (4-7) have not denied rumors of Norv Turner getting sacked at the end of the season.

Each team has had their struggles, but let’s find out who is most likely to fight through them!

The Chargers

The struggling Chargers have had their longest losing streak since the end of 2002 and beginning of 2003 seasons. San Diego sits at the bottom of the AFC West and are three games behind division rivals Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.

Philip Rivers just isn’t the Philip Rivers we expected to see. His inconsistency and developing inaccuracy have hurt the Chargers at crucial moments in games. Rivers has 17 interceptions after throwing only 13 last season.

Despite Rivers’ inefficiency, the team is ranked 6th in the league for total number of yards on offense (386), and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (out with a hip injury since October 31st) returns to the field, which should benefit the Chargers’ offensive game.

The Chargers’ defense has not contributed a lot the past six games. They only have 19 sacks this season, which is tied with the Colts and Buccaneers for second worst in the NFL. They have also allowed 131.9 rushing yards per game, ranking them 26th in league. The key to locking down the Jaguars unstable offense will be shutting down running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who has been responsible for the minimal amount of success Jacksonville has had.

The Jaguars

The Jaguars have had a lot happen in a short week, and refocusing their attention is going to be difficult.

After Del Rio was let go, the Jaguars named Mel Tucker interim coach. Tucker wasted no time taking over and fired receivers coach Johnny Cox, reassigned quarterbacks coach Mike Sheppard, and waived starting receiver Jason Hill. Jacksonville has also put three more players on injured reserve, giving them a league-high of 20 guys out for the season.

That’s a big dose of change for one week.

Jacksonville’s offense is ranked 31st for points scored per game (12.5) and gain a league low 250 total yards per game. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has struggled to lead this offense. Gabbert has a completion percentage of 48.5, and while he has half the number of interceptions Rivers does, he also only has 6 touchdowns to brag about. In Gabbert’s defense, he has one player he can rely on, Maurice Jones-Drew, who has rushed for 1040 yards and scored 5 touchdowns.

The Jaguars defense has held their own despite the disappointing season. They are ranked 4th in the league for overall defense, only allowing 292.5 yards per game and a total of 23 sacks this season. Outside linebacker Daryl Smith has had 80 combined tackles and 2.5 sacks to assist the team.

However, the defense has gone through a lot of players. Backup cornerback Will Middleton will join fellow teammates Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox on IR. Jacksonville signed cornerback David Jones to help fill in the gap. Defensive end Math Roth is out with a concussion and Aaron Kampman is suffering from a hamstring injury. All in all, this Jaguars defense sounds a little black and blue.

My Chargers-Jaguars Prediction

When I started this post, I literally had no idea who I would pick to win. I kinda was thinking they’d both find a way to lose…were that possible.

I’d say it’s about time for the Chargers to step out of their funk, but I don’t think that’s going to happen for three reasons:

1. Rivers is consistently throwing interceptions, and that’s it.
2. Someone pressed the reboot button for the Jacksonville Jaguars. There is a new feeling amongst the team that will jolt them into action.
3. Someone pressed the chaos button for the San Diego Chargers. Jump starting rumors of the future of the team in the middle of the regular season doesn’t seem like the best idea for “team” focus.

Final Score prediction:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 20  | San Diego Chargers: 17

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Chargers-Jaguars Date: Monday December 5th
• Chargers-Jaguars Kickoff Time: 8:30 pm
• Chargers-Jaguars TV Network: ESPN
• Chargers-Jaguars Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Chargers-Jaguars Point Spread: Chargers -3
• Chargers-Jaguars Over-Under: 39.5

Fantasy Football Week 12: Big Names Who Could Disappoint

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick is quickly falling from the plateau that he and the Bills were on earlier this season. They started off 4-1, and Fitzpatrick looked like one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. He has since signed a contract extension, and has played terribly.

The Bills have scored a combined 15 points in their last two games, and it does not seem things will change this week against the Jets. New York has the fifth ranked pass defense, and is very frustrated after a loss to Tim Tebow and the Broncos last Thursday. Keeping Fitzpatrick on the bench is a good idea this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Jones-Drew has been a consistent bright spot for the Jaguars over the past few seasons, and he has continued that into this season. He has a touchdown in his last three games, and has rushed for 941 yards on the year.

He and the Jaguars are facing divisional foe Houston today, who only allowed 63 yards to Jones-Drew in their first meeting. Houston has the fourth ranked rush defense at just over 90 yards, and will not let Jones-Drew reach that number today.

Dwayne Bowe

Bowe will once again have Tyler Palko as his quarterback today, even after the Chiefs picked up Kyle Orton on waivers. Orton could start next week, but he has not had enough time to learn the playbook in Kansas City.

Bowe has not had a touchdown catch since Week 5 against the Colts, and it will be tough to find one tonight against the Steelers and their third ranked pass defense. It is tough to bench a high quality receiver like Bowe, but it is tough to expect great results with Palko under center.

Fantasy Football Week 12: Under-the-Radar Players to Consider

John Skelton

Skelton had a game to forget last week against the 49ers, but things will be much better this week and he and the Cardinals are facing the lowly Rams.

Prior to last week’s debacle, Skelton threw for over 300 yards and had 3 touchdowns against the Eagles. He has faced the Rams once already, and threw for 222 yards and a touchdown. In a deep league, he is a reasonable bet to take.

Toby Gerhart

Adrian Peterson is out this week against the Falcons, so Toby Gerhart is taking his place as the Vikings’ main threat out of the backfield.

Gerhart will be going up against the Falcons second ranked rush defense, but he is a power-back who could easily get two touchdowns without even reaching 60 yards.

Lance Moore

Moore has been a reliable option for Drew Brees all season, even though Brees may not always look his way.

Moore is a slot receiver who fits perfectly into the Saints’ offense, and has the ability to have a breakout game, as he did in Weeks 3 and 8. He is a low-risk bet to put in the starting lineup as the second receiver on any fantasy team.

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And don’t forget, we will be live chatting starting at 10:00 CT and going all the way until kickoff. Bring any and all start/sit questions here and we’ll get them answered.

Denver found a way to beat the Jets last night, and New York can now pretty much kiss the playoffs goodbye.  Important division games in Baltimore and New York will have a hand in deciding the future for all of the teams involved.

But let’s get to the fantasy world.

Asante Samuel thinks the front office in Philly is playing fantasy football; maybe they are, maybe they aren’t, but those guys do know how to put up numbers…and there is a new face from that squad who we would like you to give a chance to come Sunday night.  From rookies to vets, we have it all in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Vince Young

If there was ever a time to prove that you are an NFL quarterback, then now is the time for VY.  In terms of actually playing the position, he might not fare so well; but with all of the weapons that Philadelphia has on offense you have to think that anyone could succeed as the signal caller.

And from a fantasy perspective, if all else fails throwing the ball, his legs aren’t too shabby either.

Alex Smith

If San Francisco is going to consider themselves a serious contender in the NFC, then Alex Smith isn’t going to be able to hide behind a great defense and coach for long. A breakout game is needed, and the timing couldn’t be better with the likely hungover Cardinals coming to town. Expect some big numbers with the state of the Arizona secondary.

Brandon Jacobs

Apparently the Eagles have designed their defense to play while they are ahead (hence the weak front 7) rather than from behind. New York knows exactly what to do on Sunday, and that is to give Brandon Jacobs the ball over and over again. He may not break out for long runs, but when it comes to the red zone few running backs can do a better job of getting to pay dirt when the ball is inside the 5.

Maurice Morris

Well, the Lions are beginning to see what happens in this league when you pretty much forget about the running game. If this team is serious about getting to the playoffs and making a run, then this is the week they should take advantage of the cushy matchup against the Carolina run defense. With no Jahvid Best, say hello to Maurice Morris.

Michael Crabtree

Somebody not named Vernon Davis needs to step up for this receiving corps, and it really should be the man that San Fran selected with their first pick a few years back. This is really a match made in heaven for the 49ers passing game as Arizona posts the #24 pass defense in the league.

Earl Bennett

Finally Jay Cutler has that number one receiver that will help him become a top 5 quarterback in the NFL! Not exactly, but Earl Bennett is by far the best receiver in Chicago right now. As his rapport with Cutler continues to build during this win streak for the Bears, more good things could come from this.

Benjamin Watson

Is it fair to say that the Cleveland Browns have the absolute worst offense in the NFL? Having scored 20 or more points just once this year, the players on offense that can make a difference are few and far between. Watson should benefit directly from the opposing defense starting to take notice of teammate Greg Little’s recent success. I mean, someone has to step up right?

Bears D/ST

I can’t lie. This unit basically won my matchup for me this past Sunday with that 34 point outburst. There is a 1 in infinity chance that they repeat the effort, but with Phillip Rivers throwing the amount of INT’s he has thrown this year anything can happen.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Cam Newton

This should be the game that will let everyone know if Cam will have a rookie dropoff this season. Even if he does go on to win the ROY award, this matchup is going to pose problems for his passing stats. The one thing that does save him in this game are his legs, but other than that you should look for other options if available.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Week after week, teams key on MJD because there really isn’t anyone in Jacksonville worth worrying about. The Browns have the league’s best pass defense against arguably the worst starting quarterback in Blaine Gabbert. MJD is a great player, but he can’t do it all by himself.

Anquan Boldin

He has lost a step since his days with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and it’s starting to become noticeable this year. And now getting into the end zone in key moments is starting to become Torrey Smith’s job.  Even though the Bengals probably won’t have Leon Hall, Boldin is still going to be looked upon in the Ravens offense as a possession receiver so those big gains that everyone hopes for will likely be null.

Mario Manningham

This spot was likely going to be reserved for Hakeem Nicks, but he isn’t on the list because the Eagles don’t play the man to man defense that allows Nnamdi Asomugha to shine. Both of these guys can’t have big games as Philly is designed to stop the pass, so it would be wise to think that the better player of the two (Nicks) will get his before Super Mario.

Brandon Pettigrew

Hinging upon the fact that the Lions actually try and use their running game against a poor run defense, the tight end position usually gets left out of the fold.  If you are thinking that the Lions will go play action then you are right, but opposed to throwing the ball to the tight end like most teams, Detroit has something that no team has: Megatron. He gets his before anyone else, case closed.

Jacksonville D/ST

Wait a minute, didn’t I just say the Browns have one of the worsT offenses in the NFL?  Yes, but Jacksonville is the only team in the NFL with more atrocious stats in terms of moving the chains. This defense is going to be on the field all day long and you have to admit that Colt McCoy did look decent last week, so the tide could be changing.

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For more Week 11 fantasy analysis, be sure to check out these articles as well:

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Start/Sit Advice
• Player Rankings
• Injury Updates

Let’s take a look at what’s in store for your Monday night entertainment.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have struggled to start off the season and cannot seem to put together a performance that will help them secure a solid win. For example, in week 6 Jacksonville got down bit early but ultimately lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers by just four points, 17-13. The team ranks 32nd in the league for the number of yards per game and 31st for the number of points scored per game.

Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert has led the team down an expectedly rocky road this season. Gabbert has taken some heat for his low completion percentage of 48.8, which has helped to earn him a passer rating of 71.1. However, Gabbert’s inexperience isn’t the only thing to blame. He had to play without tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton last week due to injuries. According to the Jaguars website, the Monroe is probable for the MNF game, but Britton is listed as doubtful.

Considering these issues, the Jaguars offense needs even more from key players like Maurice Jones-Drew. Jones-Drew is third in the league in rushing, averaging 95 yards a game, and he’ll have to continue running well Monday night against Baltimore’s stout defense to take pressure off of Gabbert.

Looking beyond the struggling offense, the defense has had a little more success for the team. While Jacksonville allowed the Steelers to rush 185 yards, they have been quite successful at limiting their opponents passing game to the eighth-fewest yards in the league.

Baltimore Ravens

With the Ravens off to a strong start at the top of the AFC North, they look to be a tough match for the home team tonight. Joe Flacco is pacing his way to his first 4,000 yard season. Ray Rice has proven to be Flacco’s “go-to” man, currently averaging 140 combined rushing and receiving yards per game. The Ravens are ranked 4th in total points scored per game at 29.6.

The Ravens defense is where it’s at though. They have only allowed their opponents to run for an average of 3.3 yards per carry and 76.6 rushing yards per game. All-Pro inside linebacker Ray Lewis (42 tackles, 2 sacks) is sure to make a deadly impact on the Jaguars offense, as he does to most offenses. Baltimore’s defense has been good but not quite as dominant for the past few years. This year though, Football Outsiders has ranked the Ravens defense as number one in the NFL. The dominance appears to be back.

Monday Night Football Prediction

The Ravens and the Jaguars both have tough defenses. However, the Jaguars have a rookie quarterback whose protection is limited, making him an easy target for the superior Ravens defense.

The Ravens offense might not be the best in the league, but if Flacco stays sharp and Rice can continue to make key plays for Baltimore, the Jaguars defense will be outplayed.

Ravens-Jaguars Prediction: Ravens 21 | Jaguars 10

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Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Game Info

• Ravens-Jaguars Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 23rd at 8:30 ET on ESPN
• Ravens-Jaguars Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Ravens-Jaguars Point Spread: Ravens -8
• Ravens-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 39

Staying on the topic of quarterbacks, this week we will see some newcomers who will be thrust into the starting role. Though you shouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Christian Ponder to make headlines in Minnesota, we’ve got other names to know for you in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Tim Tebow

As a real football player, there really is not a lot to like about Tebow; but this is the fantasy world.  Regardless of how many passing yards he throws for, his legs are your best asset.  Down on the goal line he is realistically a better option than any other Bronco running back, so if you are in a league with 10+ teams, don’t be afraid to start him.

Jay Cutler

The offensive line did OK against Minnesota last week and should do better when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay.  Look, Jay is just as skilled as any quarterback in the league when it comes to throwing the ball, but he needs time to do so.

Curtis Painter

Now, in a week where arguably 4 of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks are on a bye, the field is wide open for options of who will fill that spot on your roster.  The stock of Painter is only up for logistical reasons: going on the road and facing a New Orleans team who will most likely have the Colts down 14 or more at half will prompt Painter to take control and throw the ball a lot.

DeMarco Murray

Felix Jones is hurt, so it looks like Murray should get the start.  I’m getting the feeling that after a loss, bye week, and another loss, the Cowboys may want to get their running game going if they wish to be relevant in 2011.

Montario Hardesty

Young backs are another trend this week as Montario Hardesty looks like a valuable option.  Yes, the Seahawks are one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league, but someone has to take the carries with Peyton Hillis sitting out with that hamstring injury.  10 points in a standard scoring league seems reasonable.

Kevin Walter

While he does not command a double team quite like the injured Andre Johnson, Walter does get some respect from defenses.  Regardless, he will be targeted early and often whenever Houston does decide to throw the ball.

Doug Baldwin

There may be two 6’4” receivers in Seattle, but this little 5’10” guy is playing bigger than everyone else.  While the Browns do have the 4^th ranked pass defense in the league, Seattle is still going to put up some numbers at home.  Add to that the fact that top cornerback Joe Haden is likely to sit again with a knee injury, and Baldwin could be Cleveland’s toughest matchup.

Kevin Boss

His production has not been stellar thus far, but his role could be increased greatly very soon.  With Carson Palmer getting off the couch and onto the field, the best friends for a new and/or rusty quarterback like that is a running game (check) and a tight end to throw to.  Let’s see how this goes. (And surely Kyle Boller, who will likely start this week as Palmer gets acclimated, will look to his tight end too.)

San Diego D/ST

This matchup looks very good if you have this defense.  The Chargers are good against the run, something that the Jets feel they need to establish but haven’t so far this year.  Mark Sanchez has inconsistencies that fall into the lap of the defense if they are able to establish a decent pass rush.  Ignore the coast to coast travel and start San Diego. Go Chargers! Go!

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Matt Ryan

Sorry Matty Ice, but you just haven’t performed well against the defenses of the NFC North this year.  Is it a coincidence that the Bears and Packers were the only teams to hold him to under 10 fantasy points this year?  Maybe, but the Detroit defense as a whole will bring problems for the Falcons.  That pass rush is vicious. Nobody has been doing well against it and I just don’t see it starting now.

Joe Flacco

I love Joe Cool as much as anybody, but this week he falls victim of the circumstance.  The Jags couldn’t stop the Steelers’ running game last week, and in football if a team can’t stop the run, then the ball will just continue to be shoved down the throat of the defense, lowering Joe’s value this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Can you name a significant playmaker on the Jags’ offense besides this guy?  Seriously.  Obviously there is nobody else but MJD, and going against the best defense in the NFL, things are looking bad.  If there is anything positive about his numbers it is that he is averaging 95 yards a game, but if you are looking for a 15 point performance, that’s not happening, because he just doesn’t get into the end zone enough anymore.

Willis McGahee

Yes, he has been very impressive ever since he took over the starting duties in week 2, but with Tim Tebow on the field, his value drops as the Broncos get closer to the end zone.  This is a very unfortunate situation given the fact that he had been playing so well, but this league is a business and people want to see Tebow with the ball.  It’s just Tebow fever for Denver (and you can tell as I used his name more than Willis in his own paragraph).

Larry Fitzgerald

The Vikings held Larry to 6 points last week and you can expect a similar score this week against Pittsburgh.  Even though the schemes are different, the two defenses are structured closely in terms of talent and what they do.  The other problem facing Arizona as a whole is that it doesn’t look like they know what to do with some decent talent on that offense.

Brandon Lloyd

Not 100% sure why Denver pulled the trigger on this deal because it looked as if Lloyd and Decker could coexist.  Regardless, he is in St. Louis now, but don’t expect much from him fresh off of the trade.  He needs to learn some things about the offense and Sam Bradford is ailing as well. Lower the expectations if you can.

Dustin Keller

When you do the math, Keller seems like a good choice for a starting tight end, but not so fast my friend.  With the dysfunctional Jets offense, it’s hard to think that Keller will see any real involvement.  For New York this year it has been either ground and pound or airing it out with very little to the tight end.

Atlanta D/ST

I don’t like to harp on teams, but didn’t a lot of people pick this team to go to the Super Bowl?  Maybe it is their schedule that puts them up against team’s with a lot of fire power on offense or is it that they just aren’t that good?

With some many teams rich in fantasy talent (Patriots, Giants, Eagles, Bills, plus the 49ers and Bengals) observing their bye this week, it means that we all are having to dig deep into our benches and even onto the waiver wire just to field complete lineups. During such weeks is when start/sit advice is its most valuable, and as always we have you covered here at MSF.

First, check out the consensus top 10 start em and sit em picks below, delivered just a few minutes ago from our friends at PlayThisGuy.com. They compile start/sit picks from numerous proven, trusted sources across the web (including MSF) to come up with these picks.

Second, click over to Jon’s Week 7 Start em, Sit em column, where he breaks down every position in detail, telling you who to start, who to sit, and who will be the best and worst performer at each position, along with stat projections. Also see the Week 7 rankings and Andy’s waiver wire pickups column.

(Oh, and don’t forget to the enter this week’s fantasy college football freeroll tournament. It’s free to enter, but the prizes are real. You’d be a fool not to play.)

And now, without further ado, here are the consensus Week 7 Start/Sit picks from PlayThisGuy.com:

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start em, Sit em Advice

Consensus Top 10 Start/Sit Picks

The comment section is yours if you have any questions about your Week 7 roster. We’ll do our best to get every question answered by Sunday morning.

And now, for no good reason at all, here is a picture of consensus Start #4 Matt Cassel, apparently in a little bit of pain.

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Andre Johnson is gone.  Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.  Miles Austin is on the mend.  Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?

With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost.  If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings.  But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug.  Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.

So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.

As always, let’s briefly recap last week’s picks just to see how we did.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Four Recap

Overall – 29 for 47 (62%)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Megatron and Rob Gronkowski
• Misses: Matt Stafford and Adrian Peterson

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Greg Olsen
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress (Thanks a lot…Sanchez…)

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 12 for 16

• Hits: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, and Tony Gonzalez
• Misses: Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, and Jermichael Finley.

Worst Player Predictions: 0 for 4

• Misses: Kyle Orton, Texans’ Running Backs (HUGE MISS…sorry guys), Sidney Rice, and Owen Daniels

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 4

• Hits: Joe Flacco
• Misses: Ray Rice (Never will I ever doubt him again), Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 12 for 15

• Hits: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Cowboys’ Running Backs, Chad Ochocinco, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow
• Misses: Denver Running Backs, Steve Smith 1.0, and Benjamin Watson

And now onto the Week 5 start em, sit em picks.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em Projections

One brief change this week:

As you know, Jerod did the Start/Sit column the last two years before handing the keys to me this year. He still edits the column before it’s posted though, and helps out in the comment section answering questions throughout the week. And while we agree on the majority of these picks, there are some spots where we differ, and we think it will add value to the column to have him chime in with alternate viewpoints when he has them.

So at the end of each position section, you’ll see a blockquote with Jerod’s quick-hit thoughts on the picks, especially any he strongly disagrees with. As always when it comes to our fantasy advice, MSF is an ego-free zone where helping readers put the best possible lineup together is the goal. This is just one more way we can work together to do that.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 5:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• St. Louis
• Miami
• Washington
• Baltimore

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Michael Vick

Vick started to look like the Vick of last season on Sunday, and his team still got the loss.  Buffalo’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as they have been torched by several teams already this season.  Look for Vick to try and put the Eagles on his shoulders as they travel to Buffalo trying to save their season.  The Eagles may not win, but Vick should have a MONSTER day.

Michael Vick Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 380 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1INT; 85 rushing yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Philip Rivers

I almost feel like this is cheating, but Rivers is only ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks.  Look for him to start moving up the charts this week in Denver.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 350 yards, 3 TDs

Other Guys I Like:

• Eli Manning – At home against Seattle.
• Drew Brees – On the road in Carolina.
• Curtis Painter – Played well in his debut, and will be doing his best against the Chiefs to make sure the Colts don’t finish with the worst record in the league.
• Mark Sanchez – The Pats’ defense is beyond banged up right now…and they weren’t all that good to begin with – especially against the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Cam Newton

No, this is not one of those “He can’t really be this good!  He’s going to fail eventually!” picks… I have actually been very impressed by the youngster so far this year.  Unfortunately, the Saints’ defense will be unlike anything he has played so far.  The Packers were definitely a better defense, but they played very vanilla against him.  He has never faced a defense that will attack him like New Orleans will this Sunday.  I think Newton will go on to have a very good season, but not this week against New Orleans.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 180 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs; 45 rushing yards, 2 fumbles

Sit Em – Tom Brady

Just hear me out.  Obviously, if you have Tom Brady, you probably don’t have a reliable backup.  That’s ok.  He could still get you 15 to 18 fantasy points this week.  However, if you are in a small league, and you were able to pick up someone like Matt Stafford as a backup, you should look very seriously at benching Brady this week, and it has everything to do with the Patriots’ Week 5 opponent and Brady’s checkered history against them.

The Jets have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and Darrelle Revis will be able to shut down Wes Welker better than anyone else in the league.  That leaves Brady with only Rob Gronkowski as a legitimate weapon all day, and the Jets will be licking their chops to rush Brady if New England only has five guys protecting him.

Plus, consider Brady’s last five starts against the Jets:

• 2010 Playoffs: 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• 2010 Week 2: 248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2010 Week 13: 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 11: 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Based on the averages, Brady will still throw for 250 yards, and may even have a few TDs…and of course he has the potential to throw a 4 TD gem against anyone…but the Jets have also proven that more often than not they at least pull Brady back to the pack; thus, there could definitely be much better options than him for your lineup this week.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers are just bad, and he’s banged up.
• Donovan McNabb – I’m just trying to pad my stats for next week…
• Matt Ryan – They might lose by 50 points to Green Bay.
• Jay Cutler – Detroit’s defensive line will make him dance by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Everything here sounds reasonable, including Jon’s thoughts on Brady (who I’d still start though, personally), but I disagree on Matt Ryan. He and the Falcons offense are much better at home and in domes, and the Green Bay defense is giving up a lot through the air. I say start Ryan. He’s a top 10 QB this week.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville is just awful, and they will ride Mo-Joe until he falls over in the second quarter during week 8.  I feel bad for the guy, having his prime ruined on lousy teams.  Fortunately, his fantasy owners will make good – especially this week against Cincinnati.

Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 180 yards, 1 TD; 80 yards receiving

Start Em – Joseph Addai

He’s quietly had a pretty decent year, despite all of the upheaval in Indy.  The Colts’ offense should move a little more fluidly with Curtis Painter as well.  To top that off, Indy will be playing Kansas City in a game that the Colts foolishly think they need to win.  Colts’ fans will watch in horror as Indy ruins their chances at Andrew Luck.

Joseph Addai Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 135 yards, 1 TD; 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Darren Sproles – He’s just so fast…and Carolina’s LBs are hurt.
• LeGarrette Blount – San Francisco is actually sneaky decent…Tampa Bay will be forced to grind it out more than normal.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – He might have 150 yards receiving against the Pats.
• Mike Tolbert – Playing Denver…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer – Rashard Mendenhall

He’s awful, and Tennessee is good.

Rashard Mendenhall Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 10 yards rushing

Sit Em – Michael Turner

Remember the last time Green Bay played Atlanta, on that fast turf, indoors, and jumped out to a huge lead, and rendered Michael Turner unusable against a defensive line that was already amazing at stuffing the run?  Oh.  Me neither…

Michael Turner Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 25 yards rushing; 15 yards receiving

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Shonn Greene – Not a great matchup against NE.
• BJGE – Pats won’t have a good day on offense.
• James Starks – The Packers don’t run the ball…and they don’t need to.
• Matt Forte – Detroit’s defensive line will make him cry by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Joseph Addai has been surprisingly effective this season, and I like him as a flex option this week, perhaps even over Mendenhall (who I’m growing to hate), but I personally would not start him over Michael Turner. I know the Packers held him down in the playoffs last year, but in Week 12 of 2010 he had over 100 yards and a TD against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome, and Green Bay’s defense is not nearly as good this year. Hell, let me just say it: I like everyone in the Packers-Falcons game, and with Turner averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year, I can’t recommend sitting him.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

I will continue to pick him every week until he becomes human.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 TDs.

Start Em – Deion Branch

If the Jets do what I think they will do, I think Branch will have a breakout game of sorts.  Look for Gronkowski and Welker to be neutralized, and Branch to have a pretty decent game.

Deion Branch Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD.

Other Guys I Like

• Reggie Wayne – Got a lot of targets last week with Painter, and should have a favorable matchup against anyone on KC.
• Hakeem Nicks – Huge game for him.
• AJ Green – He’s unbelievable…I keep telling you.
• Devery Henderson – Despite registering zero catches last week, Carolina won’t be able to stay in front of him and Henderson will bounce back.

Projected Worst Performer – David Nelson

Nnamdi Asomugha finally justifies the money that was spent on him this summer.

David Nelson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Pierre Garcon

Don’t chase TDs!  He only had two catches on Monday Night, and although they ended up being two giant home runs, he only caught the ball one-fourth of the time it was thrown to him.  Believe me, this is hard for me to say, because Pierre is my favorite player.  I may or may not have spent more than 100 bucks on a Super Bowl jersey with his name and number that ended up being a curse against the Saints.  Either way, don’t be fooled by his “big game” against Tampa.  He’s hit or miss…and this week is a miss.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 0 catches

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Wes Welker – Bad game by his standards.
• Victor Cruz – Stop drinking the Cruz kool-aid…right now…at least for one more week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough game for Newton and the Panthers.
• Jacoby Jones – Don’t be fooled…he won’t have a break out game, no matter who is hurt on his team.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

So long as people make sure to still start Wes Welker – because you can’t sit him right now – I’m fine with him being in Jon’s dislike section. I also agree on Garcon. Don’t overreact to one big week and a couple of fluky touchdowns. As for Nelson, the question is who will Nnamdi cover? The Eagles play a lot of zone, which has been part of their secondary’s downfall since they have a lot of good cover corners. And I agree on Branch. I thought he’d bounce back last week, but I think it comes this week with one of Brady’s favorite all-time targets getting the 3rd or 4th best cover option on the Jets.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jermaine Gresham

He’s really good and the Jaguars are really bad.

Jermaine Gresham Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection: 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em – Brandon Pettigrew

I watched, first hand, two weeks ago as the Chicago Bears proved they couldn’t guard tight ends and Jermichael Finley went off.  Look for Pettigrew to have a big day in a huge Monday Night Football game that the city of Detroit deserves.

Brandon Pettigrew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton’s security blanket all game against the blitzing Saints.
• Dallas Clark – Let’s just hook everybody up the the Curtis Painter rejuvenation machine!
• Owen Daniels – He’s the guy that will get more looks with Andre Johnson being out.
• Scott Chandler – I know I always say not to chase TDs…but I think he grabs one or two this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Heath Miller

When Tight Ends lose it…they LOSE it…and Heath Miller has lost it.

Heath Miller Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 1 catch for 8 yard

Sit Em – Vernon Davis

Tampa Bay did a great job of locking down Dallas Clark, and they should have similar success against the 49ers.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 40 yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• I originally picked Jimmy Graham, but as I thought about it, I started to have second thoughts.  Then, I read Jerod’s thoughts below, and completely agreed.  There really aren’t any of the big name tight ends that I dislike this week…so I am sticking to Davis and these other two guys.
• Jeff King – Rough day for Arizona
• Jeremy Shockey – One get enough looks against New Orleans.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, you can’t sit Jimmy Graham. Sorry Jon, but I disagree here strongly. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes this year and he’s had over 100 yards the last two weeks. He’s also scored three times. The reality is that Graham, not Colston, not Meachem, not Moore, not Henderson, is Drew Brees’ #1 target right now. Also, I’d think long and hard before sitting Vernon Davis. Alex Smith gained a lot of confidence last week, and Davis remains the best receiving threat on the team. If you’re going to sit him, make sure it’s for someone the caliber of Gronkowski, Pettigrew, or Graham. Remember: talent usually wins out over time, and few tight ends are as talented as Vernon Davis.

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As always, feel free to ask your questions in the comment section and I will do my best to respond.  Or, you can send them to me on twitter anytime: @The_Dr_Twitch.

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

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Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

Like I said before, it’s not that fun to draft Ichiro.  You know exactly what you’re getting.  (Or at least you used to know, before this season.) On the flip side, thinking about Jason Heyward’s upside gives us all visions of glory.

But when it comes to drafting running backs for your fantasy football team this year, save the “sleepers” for other positions.

Assuming you are in a 10 to 12 team league, or a fun weekly challenge game like FanDuel, and you have to start at least two running backs, it won’t be good enough to simply know which guys are in the top five.

Here are my top 25 running backs for 2011, along with some guys I think you should stay away from. The latter group is who we’ll start with.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: The “Stay-Aways”

• Mark Ingram – The Lockout will hinder rookies greatly this year.  The rookie running back slump continues, even though the kid has unreal talent.
• Joseph Addai – As a Colts fan, I think I speak for everyone else in Hoosier Country when I say, “You just can’t trust this guy.”
• All Other Colts’ Running Backs – If you need me to explain this one, you have probably never played fantasy football.
• Jonathan Stewart – Just a hunch, but I think the Panthers will try to justify spending a billion dollars on DeAngelo Williams…if only for this season.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Also a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to be high-flying, just like they were in their 18-1 season.  Expect a lot of passing, yards, and scoring…through the air.
• CJ Spiller – At this point, he’s destined to become a homeless man’s Devin Hester.  And in a league that no longer has kickoff returns, that isn’t a good thing.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – Eight steps beyond washed-up at this point.
• Daniel Thomas – See Ingram, Mark.
• Fred Jackson – I just don’t see the Bills leading a lot of games this year.  Their running game and Mr. Jackson will suffer.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #21-25

The boring guys who will win you games

• Marshawn Lynch
• Ryan Mathews
• Mike Tolbert
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Shonn Greene

Ironically, these guys are all pretty similar.  Most of them like to pound it inside and eat up short yardage situations.  Expect all of them to be able to punch it into the end zone for you as well.

Of these five, Greene has the most upside since the Jets will likely be good, but Sanchez will still struggle, causing them to rely heavily on their defense and running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #16-20

Your “all or nothing” guys…that will win you weeks, and break your heart.

• Jahvid Best
• Felix Jones
• Knowshon Moreno
• Ryan Grant
• LeGarrette Blount

These guys are all on the same level to me. 

Best intrigues me the most because I feel that he has the most raw talent of the bunch…but as we are all well-aware, his injury history will scare many away.

I really think this could be Knowshon Moreno’s breakout year, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up as a top seven running back…though the QB situation will make his job that much more difficult.

Beware of Ryan Grant.  The Packers’ RB was injured for most of last season, and he will come back hungry, ready to show everyone that he is, in fact, very important to his team’s success.  Also, it’s probably a safe bet that Green Bay will be winning a lot of games this year, and Grant will be benefactor #1.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #11-15

It’s just not fun taking them, but you can’t let them slide past you.

• DeAngelo Williams
• Frank Gore
• Matt Forte
• Steven Jackson
• Peyton Hillis

None of these guys will earn you high praise on draft night, but they will all give you an easy 1000 yards, 8 TDs, and receptions out of the backfield.  Again, the lockout will affect a lot of young guys, players on new teams, and players with new coaches.

While Williams, Gore, and Hillis are all playing for new coaches, they will definitely be one of the foundational elements that their coaches are hoping to build upon.  Gore, Forte, and Jackson are about as “Ichiro-esque” as you can get.  Barring injury, expect solid numbers from them across the board.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #10

I have to place him this high, but I’m scared to death of him myself.

• Michael Turner

It’s possible he’s past his prime.  It’s possible that all of the carries the past few years have killed his legs.  It’s possible that Atlanta will become more of a passing team this year.  It’s also possible he has one more year left in him.

This is all I know.  Someone will draft Michael Turner in your league this year, and it will either make, or break his team.  I am scared to death of him, but I also know he could have one more good year left in him, and I understand he could very well come back to bite me.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #8-9

“Old Reliables” that may not be so reliable.

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Rashard Mendenhall.

If healthy, both Jones-Drew and Mendenhall will easily be top-ten RBs.  Both of their teams love to grind it out, and both guys can do the job.  However, Mendenhall has had fumble issues in the past, and just how long can a guy as small as Mo-Joe stay healthy?

If it were me, and I drafted either of these guys early, I would take his backup late in the draft – especially if I had Mo-Jo, because I think Rashard Jennings could really surprise some people this year, if given the opportunity.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #6-7

The new kids on the McBlock.

• Darren McFadden
• LeSean McCoy

These two guys have more “home-run” ability than anyone besides Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and maybe Adrian Peterson.

McCoy will be playing in a high-powered offense that has surprisingly less weapons than you thought.  Seriously, they have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and…yeah you thought they had more, didn’t you?  Well, McCoy will surprise a lot of people this year that didn’t take notice before.  He is one of the smoothest runners in the game, and can also catch the ball out of the backfield.

McFadden, on the other hand, finally seemed to figure it out last year.  If he is finally putting the work in to match his unbelievable talent, the Raiders could have a top five fantasy player on their team, easily.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #4-5

Don’t be disappointed with these guys.

• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster

We have all been there.  We get the fourth pick in the draft, and we love three guys.  Obviously, those three guys go 1-2-3, and we are stuck fuming to ourselves for the next four picks.  On draft day, don’t be “disappointed” with Rice or Foster.

Sure, maybe the next three guys will have marginally better years, but the fact is that in most seasons the difference between guys 1-3 and 4-6 isn’t really that big.  Be happy with either of these guys, and then focus on building out the rest of your team.  Nobody has ever won a fantasy league with just one guy, but plenty have lost it by not concentrating for half of their draft.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #2-3

The enigmas

• Chris Johnson
• Jamaal Charles

I think these are the only two guys in the league that could rush for 2000 yards.  They could also both get injured or, in CJ’s case, randomly miss a lot of time because of contract issues.  Either way, if things go well, Charles and Johnson will make a LOT of fantasy owners happy with their home run ability coupled with their coach’s love for the running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #1

Old Faithful

• Adrian Peterson

In my opinion, he’s still the best in the biz.

One, we make mistakes.

And two, we struggle to admit it when we do number one.

For a few hours on Sunday, Jay Cutler bashing looked poised to give baseball a run for its money as our national pastime.  Among the slew of current and former NFL players who weighed in on Cutler’s toughness (or lack thereof) was Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew.  As you peruse MJD’s timeline on Twitter, a couple comments stick out:

“Hey I think the urban meyer rule is effect right now… When the going gets tough……..QUIT..”

“All I’m saying is that he can finish the game on a hurt knee… I played the whole season on one…”

First off, any fantasy football owner would tell you MJD didn’t actually play the whole season on his bum knee, but that’s a separate discussion.  I honestly have no issue with Jones-Drew, or anyone else for that matter, giving their opinion on Cutler, whose actions and demeanor certainly left him open for potential criticism.  Screw the “code” of not calling out fellow players; MJD made a snap judgment without knowing the facts, which is something we all do from time to time.

My issue is what has happened in the aftermath.  First off, Jones-Drew came out in full damage control mode on Monday, saying “I never questioned his toughness. I think people took my joke out of context. I was taking at shot at Florida fans.”  I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on the first tweet given Urban Meyer’s Favre-esque retirement track record, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the second one.

How naive does this guy think people are?  You were absolutely questioning his toughness; don’t try to spin it like you were misunderstood.  I half expected the standard “my Twitter account was hacked” explanation that’s all the rage these days.

But things don’t end there.

On Tuesday, Jones-Drew started re-tweeting threats and negative comments he received from angry Bears fans.  In no way do I condone this kind of nonsense, but let’s face it, there are plenty of ignorant people out there who can take things like this way too far.  That said, it reaked of a guy trying to turn himself into the victim.

Instead of backtracking or trying to spin it as a joke or pandering to the perceived naivete of the public, here’s an idea: Take accountability for what you said, then either stand by it or apologize and say you were wrong. Not everyone will agree with you, but they would at least respect you having the stones to take some responsibility for your words and actions.

And just when I thought this kind of thing had reached its strangest point, along came Zack Follett.

The Lions linebacker was on a radio show and chose to get in on the act by ripping Cutler as well. He also decided to raise the bar by calling his own quarterback, Matthew Stafford, a “china doll” based on his recent injury history.

While trashing your teammate doesn’t rate highly on the common sense index, it’s a fact that Stafford has been hurt in both of his years as a pro.  Does it mean he’ll never play a full season?  Absolutely not, but based on what we’ve seen, the comment in and of itself isn’t outlandish.

Follett’s response, however, was.  First of all, he played the “taken out of context” card, which if you listen to the interview is, well, a lie.  But it doesn’t stop there.  Follett went on to post a video where he put the blame on Satan – yes, I said Satan – for using the media to challenge him.

I give Follett points for originality in his response to his choice of words, but I think I speak for all of us when I say, “Huh?!”

Seriously, is it that tough to own up to what you said without blaming someone else? Athletes have rebounded from far greater transgressions than saying something they later wished they hadn’t, so give fans just a shred of credit. We really aren’t that different after all.

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Follow me on Twitter for more of my thoughts on sports and Satan’s growing role in the media.

* – Maurice Jones-Drew photo credit: EveryJoe.com

* – Zack Follett photo credit: Raw Sports

I also discuss two players who have over-performed their preseason valuations, but who I don’t see maintaining their current pace.

And, as always, I offer you one general piece of advice…which just happens to be the same piece of advice I gave you last week. (Yes, it’s that important!)

Finally.

Life seems to have such a void without football, especially considering that all people like me have done for the last six or seven months is talk about football. Now…finally…we can stop just talking and watch.

The Indianapolis Colts kick off their season against division rival Jacksonville Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Changes have occurred throughout the roster and on the coaching staff, and these changes have been the focus of the Colts off-season. The exit of long time head coach Tony Dungy was the headliner, but the changes were felt all the way down to a change in punters from longtime Colt veteran Hunter Smith to rookie punter Pat McAffe. And there were plenty of other changes in between.

Jacksonville and Indy have what has become quite an intense rivalry, regardless of the year-by-year success of each team. The Colts hold the overall series advantage with a 12-4 head-to-head record, but in recent years they have struggled against Jacksonville’s running game.

Here’s all the info on the game according to MSF’s NFL Week 1 Preview and TV Schedule:

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

• Jaguars-Colts Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Jaguars-Colts TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on CBS
• Jaguars-Colts Location: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
• Jaguars-Colts Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots
• Jaguars-Colts Point Spread: IND -7
• Jaguars-Colts Over-Under: 44.5
• StubHub: Jaguars-Colts tickets at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
• StubHub: Indianapolis Colts tickets
• StubHub: Jacksonville Jaguars tickets
• StubHub: Get Great Tickets on all NFL tickets

Like I said earlier, the Jags have dominated the Colts on the ground in recent years led by with their two-headed monster of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The monster was cut in half this past off-season, however, when Taylor left Jacksonville and signed with the New England Patriots.

That being said, MJD is one of the league’s toughest backs, although this past preseason was somewhat unkind to Jones-Drew. The Philadelphia Eagles went Tonya Harding on MJD’s leg in their preseason bout. Luckily for Jones-Drew and the Jags, the injury wasn’t serious and turned out to be only a contusion. There’s a chance that it may still be somewhat tender come Sunday, but I expect MJD to be usual battering ram self.

The Jags also added one of the NFL’s premium route runners during the off-season: Torry Holt. Holt had a sub-par season last year with the Rams, but do not count him out. Look for David Garrard to hit Holt on third down every chance he can get, and Holt will convert.

Indy’s defense has also changed significantly. Safety standout Bob Sanders will most likely not play, and will be replaced by Melvin Bullitt, who subbed very well for Sanders most of last season. The biggest place the Colts have tried to bolster is in the middle as they drafted two defensive tackles and brought back the troubled Ed Johnson. Jacksonville will provide a great test to see if the Colts’ defense has truly moved past the “bend but don’t break” mantra they have held for so long.

New head coach Jim Caldwell didn’t get a lot of looks at his new defense as Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, as well as many of the other defensive starters did not play much in the preseason due to nagging injuries. Thus, there is a possibility that continuity — or, more specifically, a lack thereof — may perhaps be a bigger issue than any Colts fan or coach would like to admit.

I could sit and talk about Peyton Manning and the Colts offense for hours upon hours, but in order to be brief we’ll talk about the changes and the question marks.

Joseph Addai looks like he is back at 100%, and the addition of 2008 NCAA leading rusher Donald Brown will hopefully improve on what was quite a dismal 2008 rushing season. 

The departure of future Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison leaves a lot of question marks in the WR corps, with 3rd-year player Anthony Gonzalez expected to step into Marvin’s shoes. Rookie Austin Collie locked up the 3rd WR spot on the roster, and no doubt TE Dallas Clark will find himself in the slot.

The biggest advantage the Colts have on Sunday is that they are playing at home in the very impressive Lucas Oil Stadium. They will be in front of a sold-out crowd and one that has been deemed as one of the loudest crowds in the NFL.

The key to the game is for the Colts is either to handcuff MJD or establish an early lead and make David Garrard have to beat them through the air. If this is the case, Pro Bowlers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can “pin their ears back” and put pressure on the Jags QB.

The Jags must establish the run to be successful, as well as get pressure on the three-time MVP Peyton Manning. Zone coverages and blitz schemes will force Peyton into quick decisions and, if the Jags are  lucky, flush him out of the pocket. The Jags will likely take their chances letting the Colts beat them on the ground rather than giving way to Peyton and the Colts always dangerous aerial assault.

My Colts-Jaguars prediction is to take the Colts minus the points, with the final score of this game being somewhere in the realm of 27-13.

Jacksonville is not the team they used to be and with the emergence of the upstart Texans, the Jags may very well find themselves in the cellar of the AFC’s toughest division in 2009.

I do, however, anticipate this game to “feel” closer than the score shows. I expect a tough, hard-fought game throughout, with the Colts dominating the 4^th quarter to pull away and seal the victory late, led by one of the NFL’s best pass rushing tandems.

As usual Colts v Jaguars will be a great watch.

Thank God football has returned to us! Gone are the Sunday Honey-Do lists. Gone are the awkward Lifetime movies and Family Guy repeats.

The NFL is back boys and girls! Viva la Sunday!

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You can follow BigMB on twitter by going to www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

Most teams have had enough time to decide on their starters and a) don’t want any of said starters getting injured in a game that means nothing except $$$ in the organizations’ bank accounts; and b) want to use it as an opportunity to make final decisions on the back end of the roster.

Case in point: Jacksonville.

Fantasy football owners across the nation held their breath Thursday night when consensus (well, almost consensus) top-5 pick Maurice Jones-Drew went down with a leg injury. According to the AP, via ESPN.com’s Maurice Jones-Drew injury update article (via PFT’s Maurice Jones-Drew injury update), the team is calling the injury a “bruised right leg.”

Jones-Drew injured his leg on the opening series when cornerback Fred Smoot tackled him following a short reception. Jones-Drew headed to the locker room, and team officials said his return was questionable.

The official party line for the Jags right now is that the injury does not appear to be serious. Whether it is or not, I would expect them to say that for as long as possible. With the team struggling to sell tickets, it would be devastating for their one offensive star (apologies to David Garrard and Torry Holt) to be out.

Sounds like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow for a more concrete MJD injury update.

Update: The good folks at PFT have the latest on MJD’s injury. It’s being called a “shin contusion” and he should be fine. Exhale fantasy owners and Jags fans. That’s good, because the Jags had record-low attendance last night, an ominous sign for the upcoming season and perhaps the city’s ability to keep the team long-term.

I don’t believe I have MJD in any fantasy leagues this year. He’s always been a favorite of mine, but I think he’s being overvalued that high in the draft.  He still needs to prove he can handle the rushing load of a full-time back (although he does have 1st round value to me in a PPR league). Marion Barber buckled under the pressure a year ago, and I have similar fears about Jones-Drew.

Either way, I hope he’s healthy. It’s never fun to see a great player go down in the preseason.

Fantasy owners will want to take note that Greg Jones is slated to be Maurice Jones-Drew’s backup this season. Should MJD be forced to miss any time, Jones is the guy you want. And if you own MJD and don’t own Greg Jones…well, I question everything about you as a fantasy owner.

In other NFL preseason news, courtesy of Pro Football Talk:

• Poor Kevin Jones, injured again
• Saints TE Billy Miller carted off the field
• Matthew Stafford injures pride with two turnovers

Note: Be sure to check out the new MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum to receive quick answers to your questions and to discuss whatever fantasy sports topics are on your mind.

I will not be breaking any new ground when I say that there is often a great deal of fluctuation between a players’ pre-draft ranking and what his ultimate value for the season ends up being. Anyone who has played one season of fantasy football understands this.

Season-ending injuries, lingering injuries, complacency, a change in role, a change in coaching staff, the emergence of a younger player, the effects of Father Time…all of these reasons and more can end up turning a top draft pick into something far less than you were expecting.

Just glancing through the 2008 draft results from one of my leagues, take a look at some of the names drafted in the first four rounds who ended up producing far, far less than their draft position would have suggested: LT (#2 overall), Joseph Addai (#4), Tom Brady (#5), Marion Barber (#6), Braylon Edwards (#15), Carson Palmer (#17), Larry Johnson (#18), Derek Anderson (#20), Jamal Lewis (#29), Reggie Bush (#31), Laurence Maroney (#32), David Garrard (#34), Matt Hasselbeck (#35), Marques Colston (#36), Torry Holt (#38), Kellen Winslow (#40).

[Note: It was a draft with a lot of Browns fans, hence why Braylon, DA, and Kellen were all picked high; but remember, all three of those guys were pretty highly rated too, so those selections are not too far from what the norm was.]

That’s a lot of high draft picks that turned out to be duds. On the flip side, look at some of the mid- to later-round picks that turned out to be absolute studs: Michael Turner (#58), Roddy White (#98), Matt Forte (#100), Dwayne Bowe (#106), Chris Johnson (#129), DeAngelo Williams (#130), Steve Slaton (#169).

The key, of course, is to identify which highly players are going to perform below expectations and which low rated players are going to outperform expectations…before the draft. This is not always easy, and certainly even the most well thought out methodology will have plenty of misses; you just want to try to have more hits than misses over the course of time.

So, based on Yahoo’s current O-Rankings, I will try to identify three highly rated players that you should be wary of using your valuable 1st round pick on, as there are warning signs I see that could lead to you only getting 2nd or 3rd round production out of the selection.  Then, later today or this weekend, I will highlight three players currently below the Top 50 that could produce 1st or 2nd round value.

Three Highly Rated Players to Be Wary Of Drafting in the 1st Round:

Before I get into analyzing specific players, let me just say right off the bat that I am wary of LT (preseason #7) and Brian Westbrook (#5). Both will be 30 by September, both saw their values decline rather sharply from their usual greatness last year, and Westbrook is already dealing with injuries in the preseason and has an impressive rookie (LeSean McCoy) nipping at his heels. I’m not saying don’t draft them, but if you do not do so with at least a little bit of trepidation, you are either a first time fantasy football player or just a casual one.

Anyway, it’s cliched at this point to discuss the questions surrounding LT and Westbrook this year, so I’m going to try and identify some other highly rated players that the conventional wisdom is telling you to draft highly. I would imagine that at least one of these guys will probably have another great season, but at a minimum I think there are legitimate questions about all three.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons (Current O-Rank: #2)

He was an absolute monster last year in his first season as a featured back. And assuming he stays healthy all year he will probably be very good again this year. I just do not think he will be nearly good enough to warrant the second pick.

The cliched reasoning for many who are anti-Turner near the top of the draft is that he went over 370 carries last year. While such a single season workload is always concerning, using 370 as some sort of magic number appears to be a bit overdone.

So I don’t think Turner will experience a dropoff simply because he passed some arbitrary amount of carries, especially since it was his first season as a full-time starter and theoretically he still has “fresh” legs. Rather, I think the perfect confluence of events that led to his incredible season probably will not be in place this year:

• He was healthy all year last year, and two straight seasons of perfect health for a RB is rare.
• The Falcons played a last place schedule in 2008, while the opponents (including all of the NFC East teams) are tougher this year.
• 17 TDs is a lot, and TDs are a number that can fluctuate from year to year even for the best running backs. Even a small but reasonable drop to 12 TDs, which would still be an excellent number, would decrease Turner’s value.
• Turner does not catch the ball out of the backfield (6 rec in 2008), meaning he does not have non-rushing touches to add to his stats against teams that are stiff against the run, or if his TDs do in fact decrease.

Additionally, if you want to discuss the Peterson-Turner debate atop the draft, Turner is a little bit too much of a boom-or-bust type player for my tastes.  Look at his game log from 2008. He had six games where he rushed for 70 yards or less.  In those six games he totaled 2 touchdowns.  That means there were six weeks out of the year where your top pick is not contributing significantly to your efforts to win. Sure, his other 10 games were stellar, but I like a little less variance from my top dog on a week-to-week basis.  Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, had only one game in which he ran for 75 yards or less and had 15 more receptions than Turner.  I expect their TDs (17-10 advantage for Turner in ’08) to at least even out this season, negating the main advantage Turner had over Peterson last year.

I would probably still take Michael Turner in the late first round or early second round (not that he’d be there) if push came to shove, but I am just not sold on him as a legit competitor to Adrian Peterson for the top spot. I also like my first pick to have more than one great season under their belt.  Minimizing risk while still getting a great player is important.

Hence, I would feel more comfortable taking guys such as Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Clinton Portis over Turner in 2009. I much prefer picking a little bit safer and going after consistent production in the early rounds and then trying to hit home runs later on. That’s how I ended up with Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald last year to anchor my team, with late round picks Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Kurt Warner (2 QB league) putting me over the top for a title.

At the end of the day, you will most likely still get a very productive #1 back in Turner, just be wary of how high you select him and the more proven production you may be passing up.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (#3)

Marion Barber alert!  Marion Barber alert!

Remember last year how Marion Barber was going to set the world on fire once Julius Jones was jettisoned from town and Barber would get all of the carries?

Yeah, not so much.

After excelling as “the closer” in Dallas in 2006 and 2007 with a 4.8 yard average and 24 combined TDs, Barber regressed to a 3.7 yard average and only 7 TDs in 2008. He also battled injuries as his carries rose to 15.9 per game, up from 10.6 per game over his first two seasons. Thus, Barber was a decent #2 back, but certainly not worth a 1st round pick.

This year, the fantasy world is again aflutter about a running back who has excelled in a part-time role now getting the chance to be “the man.” With Fred Taylor now in New England, MJD is the main man in the Jaguars’ backfield. I think it is a mistake to expect that he will immediately become a guy who should be picked in the top 5 of the first round. Last year, his best season (almost 1400 total yards and 14 TDs), MJD was the 17th best player in Yahoo!. 

Yet, MJD has never carried the ball more than the 197 times he did last year.  If his carries go up 4-5 game, as Barber’s did, Jones-Drew could experience a drop in production to similar to what Barber experienced last year. I still think MJD is worthy of a 2nd round pick, but just make sure you remember the lesson of Marion Barber before jumping on Maurice Jones-Drew with your 3rd or 4th pick.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers (#6)

Williams was the Panther’s 1st round draft pick in 2006. Through his first two seasons in the league he scored only 5 TDs and barely eclipsed 1200 yards combined. The blame for this is not entirely on Williams. He got only 144 carries in 2007 despite having a 5.0 yard per carry average. For whatever reason, Carolina felt compelled to continue feeding DeShaun Foster and his 3.5 yard per carry average the ball. Still, great running backs are usually great from the get-go.  It is WRs who usually wait until their third years to break out.

Well Williams broke out, and in a big way, in 2008.  He ran for 1515 yards and 18 TDs, and finished the year as the #1 rated player in Yahoo!.  Eleven of those TDs came in Week 13 or later, meaning he probably won more than a few people a title last year.  My advice? Let those people take Williams in the first round, because I don’t think he will be worth it this year. 

First of all, replicating his 18 rushing touchdowns is going to be mighty difficult, especially with Jonathan Stewart there to continue pilfering carries. By themselves, I think either of these guys could have 1st round potential. In a time-share, however, and coming off of a ridiculous 28 combined rushing touchdowns, I think you’re crazy if you base this year’s value solely off of last year’s numbers.

Also, scheduling and happenstance contributed mightily to Williams’ value last year.  Look at some of the teams he racked up his huge numbers against after the Panthers’ Week 8 bye: Oakland, Detroit, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Denver, New Orleans. Not exactly a murderer’s row of run defenses, plus he went against a Giants’ team in Week 16 that was scuffling a bit.

Again, as with Turner and MJD, Williams is not devoid of early round value by any means. I just think you should be careful if you draft him expecting anything more than 70-80% of his value from last year. Never pay too high a premium for a career year after the career year.  I’m convinced we’ve seen Williams’ high water mark, and will draft accordingly.

So now that you have read my reasoning for why I would be extremely nervous drafting Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, and DeAngelo Williams in the first round, I want to remind you of the key foundational point that inspired this article: LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai, and Marion Barber were all slam-dunk first round picks going into last season, just as Turner, MJD, and Williams are this year. Yet, none of the three (LT, Addai, Barber) contributed first round value last year, and owners who drafted them faced an uphill battle all season trying to compensate for the lack of production out of their first round pick.

It happens every year and it will happen this year: two or three guys that every magazine and fantasy prognosticator have in the top 10 will fail to produce top 10 stats. So before you immediately criticize the selections above, make sure you have some alternatives ready. The question is not if there will be 1st round flameouts, it’s who they will be. Whether you agree or disagree with my choices, make sure you know whose 1st round bandwagon you’re on and whose you’re off heading into your draft.

It’s not impossible, but it is decidedly harder to win over the long haul of the season when you don’t get 1st round value out of your 1st round pick.

Note: To discuss this topic and more, be sure to check out the new MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum, where you can receive quick answers to your questions and discuss whatever fantasy sports topics are on your mind.

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* – Joseph Addai photo credit: Darron Cummings / Associated Press via NFL.com

* – Maurice Jones-Drew photo credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images North America via Zimbio