316 yards is a career high for Tebow, besting the 308 yards he passed for in a late-season win over Houston last year. And it’s fitting that America’s most popular Christian athlete, in the biggest win of his professional career so far, threw for 316 yards, bringing to mind John 3:16, perhaps the best known Bible verse and a verse Tebow referenced in his eyeblack during the 2009 BCS Championship Game.

In the hours following the Broncos-Steelers game, armchair numerologists and symbolists mobbed the Internet, presenting evidence of God’s presence in Tebow’s performance and identifying other 316s. It turns out that Tebow averaged 31.6 yards-per-completion and that one 15-minute block of the Broncos-Steelers game did a 31.6 rating.

Are these numbers proof of divine intervention, part of an eerie coincidence, or products of confirmation bias?

I’d say the latter.

For one, both numbers are 31.6, not 3.16. (12 books of the Bible have a 31:6.) Yards-per-completion is a football statistic, but it isn’t one that people use very often. The NFL passing stat sheet that you’ll find at NFL.com (or at Fox Sports or ESPN or Yahoo Sports or any number of other sites) doesn’t list yards-per-completion. Instead, it includes yards-per-attempt, which is a more telling statistic. As for the TV rating, when you cite the rating of a 15-minute segment of a 4-hour football game to prove your point, you’re trying too hard.

(And the rumor that the game’s officials were named Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John? Not true. Chad Ochocinco made that up on Twitter.)

"Rockin" Rollen Stewart began the trend of hoisting "John 3:16" signs at sporting events. (You can read all about him in my book, Kneeling in the End Zone: Spiritual Lessons From the World of Sports.)

For that matter, 49 books of the (Protestant) Bible have a chapter 3, verse 16. Why should we assume that 316 refers to John 3:16 instead of, say, Nahum 3:16 (“You boasted more traders than the heavens have stars. The locust sheds its skin and flies away,” CEB)?

The easy answer is that John 3:16 is the only 3:16 or 31:6 that is so familiar that, when people see the numbers 3, 1, and 6 in succession, they think of a Bible verse.

Sports fans have encountered John 3:16 since the Rainbow Man, “Rockin” Rollen Stewart made the verse the focal point of his “Jumbotron evangelism” in the early 1980s. Since then “John 3:16″ signs and banners have popped up at all sorts of televised sporting events. Others have likely noticed the verse on billboards, bumper stickers, or the inside of the bottom rim of a soft-drink cup from In-N-Out Burger.

I doubt that Tebow’s 316 will start a trend of looking for biblical messages in yards-passing numbers. (After all, Aaron Rodgers passed for exactly 316 yards in a Week 6 win over the Rams and no one even noticed.) But if it does, here are some other passing numbers with scriptural implications.

Let’s start with Tebow himself.

John 1:43: Tim Tebow, 143 yards, Broncos at Chargers, November 27

The next day Jesus wanted to go into Galilee, and he found Philip. Jesus said to him, “Follow me.”
—John 1:43 (CEB)

Some on Twitter (and elsewhere) have argued that Tebow’s 316 yards on Sunday referred specifically to John 3:16 because Tebow has two bosses named John: head coach John Fox and executive vice president of football operations John Elway. Well, Tebow has been playing for 2 guys named John all season. So maybe some of his other passing numbers point us to verses in John’s Gospel.

In a November 27 win over the San Diego Chargers, Tebow passed for 143 yards. In John 1:43 Jesus tells the disciple Philip to follow him. Philip just happens to be the first name of Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. Is it just a coincidence that Rivers’s quarterback rating nearly doubled the following week?

John 6:9: Tim Tebow, 69 yards, Broncos at Chiefs, November 13

“A youth here has five barley loaves and two fish. But what good is that for a crowd like this?”
—John 6:9 (CEB)

Here’s another one from John. Tebow threw for 69 yards against the Chiefs back in Week 10. John 6:9 is part of the story in which Jesus feeds a multitude of 5,000 (one of the few stories that appears in all four Gospels). Jesus’ disciple Andrew doubts that five barley loaves and two fish can feed such a large crowd. But Jesus makes it work.

Against the Chiefs on November 13, Tebow completed only two passes. Conventional wisdom says that a team can’t win an NFL game when its quarterback completes just two passes. But much as Jesus fed a crowd with two fish, Tim Tebow beat a division rival with two completions.

2 Timothy 1:2: Tim Tebow, 12 passing touchdowns in his 2nd season

While Tebow reports to men named John, his name is Timothy. There are two books of the Bible named Timothy: The First Letter to Timothy (1 Timothy) and the Second Letter to Timothy (2 Timothy). In his second season in the league, Timothy Tebow threw exactly 12 passing touchdowns. So what does 2 Timothy 1:2 say?

To Timothy, my dear child. Grace, mercy, and peace from God the Father and Christ Jesus our Lord.
—2 Timothy 1:2 (CEB)

Well there you go.

Matthew 18:3: Matthew Stafford, 183 yards, Lions vs. Falcons, October 23

On October 23 the Lions lost 23-16 to the Atlanta Falcons. It was the team’s second consecutive loss after a 5-0 start. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 183 yards, a season low. Stafford shares a name, Matthew, with a Gospel. Since there is no Matthew 1:83, let’s check out Matthew 18:3:

“I assure you that if you don’t turn your lives around and become like this little child, you will definitely not enter the kingdom of heaven.”
—Matthew 18:3 (CEB)

Clearly Stafford and the Lions had to turn things around if they were going to make their first Playoff appearance since the 1990s. But who is the “little child”? Maybe Stafford, in his third year in the league, needed to emulate the spirit and work ethic of a younger player, perhaps second-year defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh or first-year wide receiver Titus Young.

2 Kings 2:25: Eli Manning, 225 yards, Giants at Jets, December 24

From there Elisha went to Mount Carmel and then back to Samaria.
—2 Kings 2:25 (CEB)

On Christmas Eve the Jets and Giants faced off in Met Life Stadium, the facility that the two teams share. Met Life is the only stadium ruled by two different franchises, which brings to mind the book of 2 Kings.

No? Try this. The Jets are coached by Rex Ryan. Rex is Latin for “king.” Ryan may be derived from the Gaelic for “king.” There you go, 2 Kings.

In the Giants’ victory over the Jets, quarterback Elisha Manning threw for 225 yards. 2 Kings 2:25 just so happens to involve the prophet Elisha. The verse tells us that Elisha was on his way to Mount Carmel. Mount Carmel is best known as the site where Elijah faced off against the prophets of Baal to determine whose God was the true God. After his win over the Jets, Elisha Manning headed into a game against the Cowboys to determine which team was the true champion of the NFC East.

After going to Mount Carmel Elisha returned to Samaria, his home. After beating the Cowboys, Elisha Manning returned to his home stadium where the Giants hosted an opening round playoff game against the Falcons. Eerie, right?

The Prophet Elisha. He even looks like a Manning.

I don’t want to discourage anyone who found Tebow’s 316 yards inspiring. I’m the sort of person who believes that God speaks to people in all sorts of ways and that we see glimpses of the divine in all sorts of unexpected places. But let’s not get carried away.

Sports give us an abundance of numbers to play with, and if we go looking for a hidden divine message, we’ll probably be able to find it.

Here is a list of the many passing and receiving records that were broken or tied during the 2011 NFL season:

Most passing yards in a single season

• Old record: 5,084—Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins, 1984
• Record breakers: 5,476—Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints; 5,235—Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Highest single-season quarterback rating

• Old record: 121.1—Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 2004
• Record breaker: 122.5—Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Most passing yards in a single season for a rookie

• Old record: 3,739—Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 1998
• Record breaker: 4,051—Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Most receiving yards in a single season for a tight end

• Old record: 1,290—Kellen Winslow, San Diego Chargers, 1980
• Record breakers: 1,327—Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots; 1,310—Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints

Most touchdown receptions in a single season for a tight end

• Old record: 13—Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers, 2004 and Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers, 2009
• Record breaker: 17—Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Most net passing yards surrendered in a single season

• Old record: 4,541—Atlanta Falcons, 1995
• Record breakers: 4,796—Green Bay Packers; 4,703—New England Patriots

Most 500-yard passing games in a single season

• Old record: 1 (1951, 1962, 1982, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2006, 2009)
• New record: 2 (Matthew Stafford, 520 in Week 17; Tom Brady, 517 in Week 1)

Most 4,000-yard passers in a single season (tie)

• Old record: 10—2009 (Schaub, P. Manning, Romo, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Favre, E. Manning)
• Tied record: 10 (Brees, Brady, Stafford, E. Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Newton)

Most 5,000-yard passers in a single season

• Old Record: 1—1984 (Dan Marino) and 2008 (Drew Brees)
• New Record: 3 (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford)

Most 3,000-yard rookie passers in a single season

• Old Record: 1—1998 (Peyton Manning), 2008 (Matt Ryan), and 2010 (Sam Bradford)
• New Record: 2 (Cam Newton and Andy Dalton)

Drew Brees shattered records this year with the help of his sentient Muppet football.

There’s your list. I’ll leave it to someone with more football expertise than myself to explain why all of these records went down in a single season. But I would caution you not to write off all these record-breaking performances as a consequence of rule changes to protect quarterbacks and defenseless receivers. While passing numbers have been on an upward trend since the first of these rules was put in place in the 1970s, there isn’t a single 2011 rule change that accounts for all of these records—some of which have stood since the early 1980s—falling this year.

Moving the kick-off to the 35-yard line has not had a substantial effect on starting field position. (Drew Brees’ average starting position this year was his 28.24-yard line; last year he started from the 28.64.) While the league has put a premium on player safety and banned “launching,” it has also eased roughing-the-passer rules so that a player is not penalized for grazing a quarterback’s helmet with his hand. This latter rule should have resulted in more pressure on quarterbacks.

It is also interesting that all of this happened in a year when one of the most prolific passers in league history—Peyton Manning—didn’t play and when Matt Schaub, one of the most prolific passers during the last several seasons, suffered a season-ending injury in November.

Fast forward nine weeks and, while still in the playoff picture, the Lions’ roar has subsided to a meow as the team has gone 3-5 since its perfect start.

At 8-5, the Lions are now masters of their own playoff destiny.

Their most straightforward qualifying scenario is simple: win each of their final three games — one of which is a potential history-making tilt at Green Bay in the regular season finale on New Year’s Day — and the Lions are in.

Anything less than perfect down the stretch will make the Lions’ playoff picture murkier. Because Green Bay has already clinched the NFC North title, one thing is clear for the Lions: the only way into the playoffs is as a wild-card entry.

Through Week 14, the Lions occupy the NFC’s final wild-card slot behind Atlanta (8-5), which holds the head-to-head tiebreaking advantage by virtue of the Falcons’ 23-16 win over the Lions on Oct. 23. Dallas and Chicago — both of which are 7-6 — are a game behind the Lions for the final playoff spot. New York (7-6) holds the tiebreaking edge over Dallas for the NFC East title, but the teams meet in the season finale in New York on Jan. 1.

The Lions’ prospects for making the playoffs are promising, but assuming they’re in would be a mistake.

The Lions’ playoff scenarios are numerous and confusing, but if the they can return to the level of play they exhibited to start the season, they will achieve their least-complicated platform to the playoffs.

Winning the final three games will not be easy, but should they lose one, all playoff hopes will not be lost. Lose two, and the chances are slim. Lose all three, and the Lions will likely be watching the postseason from home.

The Lions travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders (7-6) — who are in their own playoff chase — this Sunday, then host San Diego on Dec. 24 before closing out the season in Green Bay on Jan. 1.

Offensive Keys to Success

Matthew Stafford has had a good season at the helm of the Lions in 2011, throwing for 3,754 yards and 29 touchdowns against 14 interceptions, ranking him 8^th in the NFL.

Stafford’s top target is Calvin Johnson, who has 72 receptions for 1,121 yards and 12 touchdowns.

If Detroit’s passing game can produce against the Raiders (17^th against the pass), the Chargers (7^th) and Packers (30^th), the Lions’ outlook is bright.

Although the Lions’ running game is not its strongpoint, if the running back corps of Maurice Morris and Kevin Smith can keep teams on their toes enough for the passing game to kick in, look out. Morris was injured in the Lions’ Week 14 win over Minnesota but is expected to play against the Raiders. Smith, who missed Week 14, has been practicing with the team and is hopeful for Sunday’s game.

Defensive Keys to Success

Ndamukong Suh returns from a league-imposed, two-game suspension to bolster the Lions’ defense, which ranks 17^th overall in the league, 9^th against the pass, and 26^th against the rush. If Suh can keep his composure and do what he does best — play the game — the Lions defense should fare well against a struggling Raider passing game that ranks 16^th in the league.

The Lions’ pass defense will be put to the test against San Diego (8^th in passing) and Green Bay (3^rd), but may get a reprieve against the Packers, depending on how things unfold during Weeks 15 and 16.

The Lions’ front line and linebackers are opening up the season-ending playoff push against the Raiders’ 6^th-ranked rushing game which is led by Michael Bush (764 yard, 7 touchdowns) who is starting in place of the injured Darren McFadden. Keeping the Raiders’ running game in check will go a long way in helping the Lions get off on the right foot.

Projection

After all is said and done, will the Lions make the playoffs this season? In a word: YES!!!

What do you think?

Jeff Herbst (born and raised in the Midwest) has had a passion for sports ever since he could first walk and has been a Lions fan through the years (good times and bad). He works with Phoenix Bats, a company that manufacturers world-class wood bats such as their signature composite wood bats for amateur and professional ball players around the world.

In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.

I finished second to last.

Lame.

Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Nobody cares Jon except for certain other people in that same league who finished in first place with an 11-2 record despite only scoring the 6th-most points but having by far the least points scored against.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!]

Let’s get to this week.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25. Why? Because if you have a guy in the top 20…you should be thinking about starting him anyway. I’m not going to sit here and tell you “enlightening” information like, “LeSean McCoy is going to score points this week!”

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow (at NE)

He’s tied for 18th among QBs…AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED EIGHT GAMES!

If you don’t believe in Tebow yet (and by that, I mean in terms of fantasy football), you probably never will.

Tebow will be playing against the New England Patriots and their league-worst defense. It should also be mentioned that for the first time all year, John Fox was complimentary of Tebow’s passing this past week. He admitted that Tebow is improving a lot, and they will be able to start trusting him more and more in the passing game. This is great news for Tebow-owners.

Will The Broncos win this week? I’m not sure, but that doesn’t matter for your fantasy team.

Tebow will go crazy like he did two weeks ago against Minnesota. New England’s pass defense is ranked dead last in the league. Start Tebow with confidence.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 15 projection: 260 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em QBs for Week 15:

• Tony Romo – Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, and Romo finally has four legitimate receiving weapons now that Miles Austin is back. Add this to the fact that they just lost DeMarco Murray, and I expect Romo to be the #1 QB of Week 15.
• Matt Stafford – Playing against Oakland (Carson Palmer…you can LOL right now). They are awful.
• Andy Dalton – Love his matchup against St. Louis. Cincinnati needs a win right now, and Dalton and AJ Green should make beautiful music in the dome on Sunday.

Sit Em QB: Mark Sanchez (at Philadelphia)

Mark Sanchez is, unbelievably, the 10th ranked QB in all of fantasy right now. Don’t be fooled though.

Sanchez has padded his stats against poor pass defenses. He put up at least 17 points against Dallas, Oakland, Miami, New England, and Buffalo. None of those teams are ranked in the top 14 in the league against the pass. Against Baltimore, Jacksonville, Denver, and Washington, he failed to break THIRTEEN.

The Eagles aren’t a great pass defense, but they are ranked 12th in the league. The way you beat the Eagles is on the ground.
Once you factor Shonn Greene’s resurgence into the picture, Sanchez is a must-sit in week 15.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 15 projection: 180 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other Sit Em QBs for Week 15:

• Alex Smith – I really hope you weren’t planning on starting him. He’s been terrible lately, AND he’s playing the Steelers. Good luck with that, Mr. Smith.
• Matt Ryan – He’s the most hit or miss QB in fantasy. He could very well have a big game, especially if Julio Jones stops dropping the ball, but I think he’s a miss this week. Jacksonville has the 4th best defense in the league against the pass, and both teams are playing off of a short week on Thursday night. Stay away from Matty-Ice this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you picking Tebow as your start ‘em QB this week is the most predictable choice of 2011. It’s also correct.

Picking Sanchez as the sit ‘em QB though? Boy, I don’t know. I certainly do not agree that he a “must sit”. Do you really trust Philly and its defense that much? Even if Shonn Greene does the heavy lifting, the Jets still like to pass in the red zone.  I don’t love Sanchez, and he’s certainly not a “must start” by any means, but he does have 7 TDs over the last three games. I don’t care who they are against, that’s good. Let’s put it this way: you could do worse.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Grant (at Kansas City)

After losing Greg Jennings last week, I have the feeling that Green Bay will start playing a little bit more conservatively late in games. Fortunately for them, Ryan Grant appears to be peaking at the right time.

It always takes a while to fully recover from injury, and Grant appeared to be at top form last week.

Look for Green Bay to start shortening games in the second half as the season ends. They will definitely start this week against Kansas City and their atrocious run defense.

Ryan Grant fantasy football Week 15 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 15:

• Shonn Greene AND LaDainian Tomlinson – Don’t be freaked out that they might steal each other’s points…BOTH players should be good for more then 10 this week against Philadelphia.
• Chris Johnson – Against Indianapolis in a game that really doesn’t matter? (Tennessee is basically out of the playoffs at this point) Come on…I think we all know that this is the type of game that Chris Johnson will EXPLODE in.

Sit Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall (v San Francisco)

I will let Jerod confirm this one by explaining to you once again how impossible it is to run on San Francisco.

Rashard Mendenhall Projections: 60 total yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 15:

• Ryan Mathews – Tough matchup against Baltimore. San Diego will have to air it out to beat the Ravens.
• DeAngelo Williams – Houston is great against the run as well. I actually like Jonathan Stewart a little bit this week – he’s the Panthers’ threat to catch the ball out of the backfield – but stay away from DeAngelo Williams in Week 15.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, I pretty much agree with everything here. I’m not as high on Grant as you are, but I certainly think he’s worthy of playing for the exact reasons you explained.

As for Mendenhall, San Francisco still has not allowed 1,000 total rushing yards this year – they give up just 70.5 rushing yards per game – and have not allowed a single rushing touchdown. Sure, that second stat is a bit fluky (everyone else has allowed at least five) but you can’t even be in a position to have it unless your run D is awesome. I would sit Mendy too. If he scores, oh well. Can you really be upset with yourself?

Other running backs who simply have to be in your starting lineups because of their matchups:

• Felix Jones – yes, Felix Jones. Dallas is playing Tampa Bay, a team that has essentially quit on the season and can’t stop anyone.
• Cedric Benson – the Rams can’t stop anyone from running either.
• Roy Helu – He’s on fire, has Shanahan’s trust, and gets to face a Giants’ D that rushes the passer but barely passes the rushers.
• Arian Foster and Ben Tate – Carolina’s run D is that bad.
• Beanie Wells – Cleveland can defend the pass, at least statistically, in large part because they can’t defend the run.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Demaryius Thomas (v NE)

New England, as I covered before, is just atrocious against the pass. World-renowned Patriots fan Bill Simmons even thinks that Julian Edelman is their BEST defensive back.

Thomas has quickly become Tebow’s favorite target in the end zone ever since he returned from injury. Look for Thomas to have a BIG day again in Week 15.

Demaryius Thomas fantasy football Week 15 projection: 8 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs

Bonus Start Em WR: James Jones (at KC)

Usually, I only give you one guy that I’m super strong on, but I felt that this was too important to skip over.

The Greg Jennings injury will not hurt the Packers too badly; they will just spread around the points a little more. Look for James Jones (and Jordy Nelson) to have a huge day in Jennings’ absence.

James Jones fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em WRs for Week 15:

• AJ Green – Big day for the Cincinnati passing game on the turf in St. Louis. I expect AJ to catch AT LEAST two bombs in this game.
• EVERY wide receiver for the Saints and Vikings playing in Minnesota this week – Both teams are terrible against the pass…both teams have tons of speed…both teams are playing inside. Yay, free points.

Sit Em WR: Roddy White (v JAX)

I hate his matchup, and I hate his QB this week. The only receiver I like for the Falcons this week against Jacksonville is Tony Gonzalez. I would stay away from Roddy AND Julio Jones actually, but Roddy is the guy that’s ranked in the top fifteen, so that is why he is my sit ‘em wide receiver for Week 15.

Roddy White fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 15:

• Michael Crabtree – Won’t do much against the Steelers this week.
• DeSean Jackson – Revis Island.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I was going to say that’s scary how much we are agreeing this week, but then I got down to Roddy White and realized that we do disagree on something. I’m not a huge fan of White’s upside this week, but I do like his consistency. Look at those last three games (all with TDs). That’s tough to sit in the playoffs.

Let me say this about Demaryius Thomas though: be careful. He is still a rookie with questionable hands. And if he hadn’t caught that late TD from Tebow, all people would be talking about regarding him is all the drops early in the game. Can he handle the pressure of a game this big? I like him. He has explosive potential because of his talent and the matchup. Just be careful.

Other guys I particularly like this week include:

• Mike Williams of Tampa – Dallas’ secondary is pretty poor.
• Nate Washington and Damian Williams against Indianapolis.
• Antonio Brown‘s underrated consistency against San Francisco.
• Laurent Robinson – I know that Dallas has all of its weapons back, but they did last week too and he exploded again. He’s not flash in the pan. Romo loves him.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End: Jermichael Finley (at KC)

The irony here is that if you have Jermichael Finley, you probably didn’t advance in your fantasy playoffs after his goose egg from last week. However, I think he will get much more involved in the passing attack now that Greg Jennings is out, and he should have his typical explosive day that he gets once a month.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 15 projection: 95 yards, 2 TDs

(Yes, everybody, I’m well aware that I predicted at least three receiving TDs for the Packers after I said they would run the ball more. I don’t care. I expect all of the throwing to be done in the first half, and then Grant to dominate in the second.)

Sit Em Tight End: Vernon Davis (at PIT)

As you well know, I’m pretty high on the Steelers’ pass defense. This game will be ugly one way or the other, and nobody on the 49ers (outside of their running backs) will have a big game offensively.

Jerod’s thoughts:

What, no “other guys” to start and sit? Come on Jon! This is Week 15!

By the way, I agree on both Finley and Davis. You’d have to have balls of steel to start Finley this week, but those who made it this far probably do.

A couple of other names to consider:

• I know that Aaron Hernandez no longer gets the red zone looks in New England, but there is still value in a tight end who catches 4-5 balls per week and gets 50-70 yards. Plus, he’s due for a TD one of these days right?
• Jake Ballard continues to be a solid under-the-radar selection. He should be as well this weekend against Washington.

Guys not to consider:

• Dallas Clark caught one ball last week in his return to lineup. Don’t be seduced by the name.
• Marcedes Lewis has some yardage potential, but I just don’t see many scoring chances for anyone other than MJD against the Falcons.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Defenses

Start Em Defense: Chicago (v SEA)

They are playing with their backs against the wall, and pretty much have to hold their opponents scoreless. Fortunately for them, they are playing against Seattle. Look for the Bears to contain the Beast and dominate the Seahawks.

Also, whenever their backs are up against the wall, Devin Hester seems to do something crazy, which helps the Bears D/ST unit. 
Da Bears will play well this week.

Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 or fewer points, 2+ turnovers, 2+ sacks, 1 TD

Sit Em Defense: Denver (v NE)

I love Denver’s offense this week, in part because I think the New England offense will have their way with the Broncos.

You can’t stop Rob Gronkowski…even with OLBs as good as Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

I will be cheering for Denver to pull it off again this week, but once again it looks like Tim Tebow will have to carry the load.

Denver Broncos D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 24 or more points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks

Jerod’s thoughts:

Okay, now I forgive you for not doing the “other” tight ends. You stepped up with some D/ST analysis! And I like both picks.

Also consider that Seattle gave up two return TDs to Ted Ginn back in Week 1. While their special teams may now be better, Hester is Hester. He offers lots of upside for Bears owners.

And as for the Broncos, you’re exactly right. Miller and Dumervil are rushing OLBs, not coverage guys. Gronk will dominate, and Welker should find plenty of success too.

Other D/STs to consider:

• Seattle’s D is criminally underrated. Facing Caleb Hanie, they too should be able to get the scoring to a minimum.
• Cincinnati playing at St. Louis is a no-brainer. So is Tennessee at Indy.

D/STs to stay away from:

• Baltimore is excellent, but they are facing a San Diego offense that is starting to click. If I had Seattle or Cincy, I’d play them over the Ravens, who face a desperate Chargers team that literally almost never loses in December.

**********

There you go. 2,500 words of fantasy analysis for Week 15, which should have you all ready to make every lineup decision facing you for Week 15.

Wait…what’s that? You still have questions? Well of course be our guest and pop on down to the comment section below. We’ll take good care of you, as well as be here on Sunday morning for our weekly live chat to make sure you are ready to win your playoff matchup.

Good luck in Week 15 everyone!

For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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Let’s take a look at the crucial injuries for this week’s games.

AFC South

The Houston Texans can’t seem to keep a quarterback around. First, starting quarterback Matt Schaub suffers injuries that put him out for the season. Then Matt Leinart, suffered a broken collar bone and will undergo surgery and sit out the rest of the season. T.J. Yates will start in his place.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter is expected to play on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders. Carpenter suffered a groin injury two weeks ago at practice.

Running back Shonn Greene, New York Jets, has carried a heavy load this year. After suffering from bruised ribs at the Denver game, Greene continues to deal with discomfort. The Jets take on the Washington Redskins this Sunday. Greene owners be aware of his ailments.

AFC West

While the Oakland Raiders have not completely ruled him out, running back Darren McFadden is not expected to play in Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins. McFadden has been dealing with a foot injury.

NFC North

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was able to shed his glove he’d been wearing to protect his fractured index finger. He played with the injured finger on Thanksgiving against the Green Bay Packers, so I would expect to see him on the field on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. Running back Kevin Smith attempted to practice on Wednesday but struggled because of his recent ankle sprain.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Michael Jenkins was put on IR on Tuesday because of an unspecified knee injury.

NFC South

Josh Freeman, quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, missed part of practice on Wednesday. Freeman suffered a shoulder injury last week and is still recovering. After being banged up all season, this could be the hit that puts him on the sidelines for a week.

NFC East

Wide receiver Miles Austin of the Dallas Cowboys was still absent from practice on Wednesday. However, he’s feeling better as he slowly makes a recovery with the injury hamstring. Austin seemed optimistic about returning to the field for Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.

New York Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw expects to play on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. Bradshaw has been out for the past four games due to a stress fracture in his foot.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a few injuries to deal with this week. Quarterback Michael Vick will sit out his third game due to broken ribs. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin will also sit out on Thursday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks because of hamstring and shoulder injuries. LeSean McCoy, running back, is listed as questionable because of a sprained toe.

NFC West

It looks as though the Arizona Cardinals quarterback has finally kicked the turf toe after missing four weeks of action. Kevin Kolb is expected to play on Sunday’s match against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Seattle Seahawks placed wide receiver Sidney Rice on IR this week after suffering from multiple concussions.

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That’s it for our fantasy football injury update! Good luck this week.

And to be completely honest with you, I’m not sure I will be able to consume any turkey until after the game.

The Packers (10-0) have been the best team in the league since Week 1 and look to continue their dominance tomorrow against Detroit Lions, which is 7-3. Deja vu takes us back to 1962, when the 10-0 Packers faced the Lions in a week 11 Thanksgiving game. The Packers lost that day 26-14.

Could history repeat itself?

The Packers

10-0.

The Packers are ranked first in the league for average number of points scored at 35.5 per game.

On Aaron Rodgers’ “bad day” he puts up 299 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. That’s not too shabby.

Rodgers has set a standard for NFL quarterbacks that no one else in the league can come close to right now. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that he has a nice variety of receivers to target. From rising star Jordy Nelson to solid veteran Donald Driver, the depth the Packers have is unbelievable. That is why this team is ranked third in passing yards, averaging 304.9 per game.

During the Tampa Bay game in week 11, James Starks, the team’s top rusher, left the game with a knee injury and his status is uncertain for Thursday’s game. Running the ball has not been Green Bay’s strong suit the past few years; however, Starks has helped the team by adding another dimension to its game, even it is only to gain a few yards and keep the clock running. Hopefully the Packers won’t need a player like Starks for Thursday, or hopefully struggling running back Ryan Grant can pull something together.

The Packers’ defense is the biggest concern against the Lions tomorrow. Inconsistent as ever, the defense we saw in Tampa Bay was not the one we saw shut down the Minnesota Vikings just a week earlier. The defense has been able to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, but not enough to be significant. The quarterback is still able to make plays even with the pressure of the Packer defense.

This Green Bay team needs to focus on making tackles to stop the play advancement. That was made very clear against Tampa Bay and their powerhouse running back LeGarrette Blount.

The Lions

The Lions are a new team this year. They started off strong, initially keeping up with Green Bay in the race to go undefeated. In week 6 they experienced their first loss to another power team, the San Fransisco 49ers, and they have since lost two other games.

Here’s the reasons the Lions are going to put up a fight:

1. This is their Thanksgiving game, and they know everyone’s eyes are on them. With their fans leaving the dining room table to cheer them on at Ford Field, losing is not an option.
2. They have nothing to lose. If they don’t win on Thursday, who is going to say they are a crappy team? No one, because they would have just lost to the only undefeated team in the league and the most recent Super Bowl champions. The pressure is on Green Bay.
3. The Lions are hungry for wins, not in the sense that this will make or break their season, but in the sense that this is their year to take opportunity by the horns and hold on tight.

However, the Lions need to be wary of this 10-0 Packers team.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has jumped the gun with ill-advised a few times in recent games and it has cost him, particularly in week 10 against the Chicago Bears. With defensive players like Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, interceptions could be deadly for Stafford and the Lions. The offensive line will need to work hard to keep the pressure off Stafford to keep him calm and relaxed during the game.

One question that many of us are pondering is “Do the Lions have what it takes to shut down Aaron Rodgers?” So far, no Green Bay opponent has done so. However, Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is someone the Packers need to keep their eye on. Suh is an aggressive player, one who has been criticized for his tough play being dirty. Keeping him away from Rodgers is a must.

Lions-Packers Prediction

Could it be a close game? Definitely.

Will it be? No.

The Packers’ defense will get the pressure on Stafford and get into his head. I expect at least one defensive touchdown for the Pack.

While Suh might put the pressure on Rodgers, it won’t be enough to throw off the Green Bay offense. Once they get rolling, they won’t stop.

Both teams are coming off a short week of practice and mental preparation. After a messy win over Tampa Bay for the Packers, they know they can’t make the mistakes they did in week 11 against the more solid Lions. The Lions are coming off a high with a win against the Carolina Panthers, but they still gave up a lot of points. Giving up points against the Panthers might be okay. Against the Packers, it’s a whole different ball game.

Final Score:

Green Bay: 35 | Detroit: 13

What do you think?

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Have a safe and fun holiday!

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Game Info

• Packers-Lions Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Packers-Lions Kickoff Time: 12:30 PM EST
• Packers-Lions TV Network: FOX
• Packers-Lions Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Packers-Lions Point Spread: Packers -5.5
• Packers-Lions Over/Under: 55

So in this post I’ll do just that, providing analysis and recommendations for the key players you need to decide on before Turkey Day.

Quickly, before I get to the start/sit analysis for the Thanksgiving Day games, I want to tell you about a fun fantasy contest from our friends at Daily Joust. They are hosting a Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout that uses only players playing on Thanksgiving Day in the player pool, has a $5 entry free, and $300 guaranteed prize pool. Plus, not only is it a Super Joust Qualifier, but you can submit multiple entries.

I plan on joining. I’ll post my team later in the week. Are you up to the challenge? Click here. (And yes, if you sign up, it helps us out. But we wouldn’t promote it if we didn’t play ourselves.)

Now onto the start/sit picks.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Quarterbacks

Start em QB: Matt Moore, Miami (at Dallas)

Over the last three weeks, few quarterbacks not named Rodgers have been as consistently good in both real life and fantasy football as Matt Moore. He has six touchdown passes and has been intercepted just once. That’s solid, consistent production that we can somewhat count on.

Granted, he did all of this against Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo, so this matchup against Dallas will be the best defense Moore has faced in a month. But the Cowboys are better against the run than they are the pass, and Rex Grossman threw for 250+ yards and two TDs on them last week.

Moore isn’t an automatic start like the three QBs mentioned below are, but he is a solid play with upside in two-QB leagues or for anyone stuck with Joe Flacco.

Matt Moore fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT

Other start em QBs:

• Hopefully I don’t need to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. I haven’t looked at the other matchups, but those two guys may be the #1 and #2 QBs this week.
• It’s still November, which means that Mr. November Tony Romo is still a very good start. He’s hot, and while the Dolphins are playing well they haven’t faced a QB of Romo’s caliber during their win streak.

Sit em QB: Alex Smith, San Francisco (at Baltimore)

Alex Smith has been playing the best football of his career this year; and while I know the Ravens gave up a lot of passing yardage to Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week, they also picked Dalton off three times. I expect the Harbaugh Bowl to be a low scoring, physical affair; and I want no part of Alex Smith against a motivated Ravens defense playing at home in primetime against a team you know they won’t take lightly.

So even though Andy Bottoms likes Smith long-term in his Week 12 waiver wire pickups column, wait a week before deploying him in your lineup.

Alex Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 200 yards passing, 0 TD, 0 INT

Other sit em QBs:

• I don’t like Joe Flacco against the stout 49ers’ defense. I’d play him before I’d play Smith, but I’d hope to need neither.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Running Backs

Start em RB: Kevin Smith, Detroit (v Green Bay)

Well…that came out of nowhere.

Last Sunday during the live chat, I was telling everyone who would listen that I thought a Detroit running back was a good play because of the matchup against Carolina. Turns out I was right, but it also turns out I had the wrong Detroit running back. Rather than Maurice Morris, it was Kevin Smith who made his triumphant return to the Motor City and amassed 200+ total yards and three TDs.

Is Smith for real? I don’t know. Carolina is one of the most generous defenses to opposing running backs. That said, Smith is the guy now in Detroit, certainly until Jahvid Best gets back. Additionally, of all the defenses playing on Thanksgiving Green Bay’s actually gives up the most points to opposing RBs. Just ask LeGarrette Blount.

I wouldn’t get too excited about Smith…yet…but if you win him in this week’s most hotly contested waiver wire battle, feel good about deploying him on Thanksgiving.

Kevin Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 80 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Other start em RBs:

• Frank Gore looked healthy and spry last week, and he faces a Baltimore defense that gave up two scores to Cedric Benson. If Gore plays, you start him. It’s that simple.
• Do you know the Dolphins are the second stingiest defense in terms of fantasy points scored by opposing running backs? It’s true. Still, I’d start DeMarco Murray. He is the focal point of the Cowboys’ offense now, and I think they’ll put up numbers against Miami.
• I thought about making Ray Rice the sit ‘em RB, but I just can’t. Even though San Francisco has given up a whopping total of zero rushing touchdowns this year, they have had a game in which they allowed 14 receptions by Roy Helu. Baltimore has to get their best player involved on offense, and while I expect Rice’s numbers to depressed by the 49ers’ suffocating do, I do think Rice can have enough impact yardage-wise and catching passes to be at least a strong flex play.
• Reggie Bush has scored a touchdown in three straight games, and in the fourth game he had over 100 yards rushing. So he’s been productive, even though his yard per touch rate has decreased the last two weeks. While Dallas is very good at stopping opposing running backs, Bush remains a solid flex play because Miami is finding creative ways to use him around the goalline.

Sit em RB: James Starks, Ryan Grant, et al, Green Bay (at Detroit)

The two-headed running back monster of James Starks and Ryan Grant simply isn’t much of a monster at all. They rarely, if ever, score touchdowns. They don’t rack up great yardage totals to offset the dearth of TD production. And John Kuhn and BJ Raji vulture all the goalline carries.

Plus, Starks is dinged up, and the Detroit defense has been improving some when it comes to holding down opposing running backs. They are in the top half in terms of points allowed. I’d look elsewhere, even if Grant gets the starting job all to himself with Starks out.

James Starks/Ryan Grant fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 75 total yards, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter still has value long-term, especially as a handcuff for Frank Gore owners, but he doesn’t get enough carries as Gore’s backup to warrant starting.
• Maurice Morris…great last name buddy, but enjoy your parting gifts.
• Daniel Thomas is still the running back of the future for Miami, but Reggie Bush is the one scoring touchdowns. Against a stingy Dallas defense, Thomas is probably not worth playing.
• Felix Jones is back. *crickets* On six touches last week he delivered an “explosive” 22 yards. Keep him on your bench. DeMarco Murray is the guy in Dallas now.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Wide Receivers

Start em WR: Torrey Smith, Baltimore (v San Francisco)

You know I’m not big on rookie wide receivers, but I do warm to them later in the season when they prove they can be trusted. Torrey Smith is earning that trust.

Smith had a huge clutch TD against Pittsburgh that built his QB’s faith in him, and then popped for 6 catches, 165 yards, and a TD in a key divisional battle last week. I know that a 3-catch, 28-yard dud against Seattle is sandwiched in there, but Smith is getting the targets and hasn’t caught fewer than three balls since Week 6. There is some risk/reward with him as a deep threat, but the reward is worth it.

And don’t get too scared off by the San Fran defense when it comes to Smith and his buddy Anquan Boldin. Because the 49ers are so stout against the run, teams often take to throwing on them. The 49ers are actually in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed to opposing WRs.

Torrey Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 4 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start em WRs:

• Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith are developing a nice rapport. He may not get into the end zone, but he’ll rack up at least 5-6 catches and 60-70 yards, with upside for more.
• With Miles Austin likely out again, both Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson are top-25 wide receivers.
• Jordy Nelson, even though it goes without saying at this point. Also, keep playing Greg Jennings. I know his last few games have been less than what we expect, but do you really want your Thanksgiving to be ruined because he popped for 100 yards and a TD? No, you don’t.
• I’m not quite sure where that 1-catch dud in Week 11 by Brandon Marshall came from, but it’s the only game this year he’s had fewer than four catches. He stays in your lineup.
• ‘Tron. Also Nate Burleson, who has two straight excellent games and faces the inviting Packers’ defense this week.

Sit em WR: James Jones, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Jones flashed his potential in weeks 3-7 when he averaged 3+ catches and 62 yards per game to go along with three touchdowns. However, in the three games since then Jones has caught just two total passes. This has coincided with Jordy Nelson becoming the most explosive receiver in the NFL, and though I don’t watch Green Bay games I have to think there is some level of causation to that correlation.

I know you’ll be tempted to play Jones because it’s Thanksgiving – and he certainly has TD potential any week, any play – but the targets just aren’t there to justify it right now; plus, Detroit is actually the second-stingiest defense for opposing wide receivers playing on Thanksgiving (after Dallas).

James Jones fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em WRs:

• I don’t like any Dolphins receiver not named Brandon Marshall.
• Lee Evans is supposedly back for Baltimore. Whoop-de-doo. Torrey Smith stole his role as deep threat.
• Braylon Edwards let a touchdown slip right through his fingers last week. You can’t start him until he proves he can make an impact.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Tight Ends

Start em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (v Green Bay)

The Chicago Bears give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Do you know who is second? The Green Bay Packers. This makes Pettigrew an automatic start this week, as does his consistency.

No, Pettigrew has not been as explosive lately as he was earlier in the season, but he’s caught at least three balls in every game but one this year, and he remains a redzone target as he scored a TD last week.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start em TEs:

• The Ravens are actually the stingiest defense against opposing tight ends, so you’re forewarned; still, I’d start Vernon Davis. He’s becoming more and more involved in the passing game, and he has scored in two straight weeks. He’s not an automatic start, but unless you have a top-10 alternative I’d keep him in there.
• Jason Witten. ‘Nuff said.

Sit em TE: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Remember when Jermichael Finley was supposed to be the next Antonio Gates? Since that time, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have clearly passed him, along with Aaron Hernandez and even the likes of Jermaine Gresham. Finley has talent, but the targets and touchdowns just aren’t there. Plus, Detroit is pretty stingy to opposing tight ends.

Finley has immense potential every week, but it’s crunch time. You need guaranteed production from the tight end spot. I’d look elsewhere but hang onto Finley for depth.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em TEs:

• Ed Dickson came out of nowhere to score two TDs two weeks ago against Seattle. That game is sandwiched between games in which Dickson averaged two catches and 15 yards. San Fran is solid against tight ends thanks to the marvelous Patrick Willis. You can do better.
• Anthony Fasano has scored four touchdowns over his last four games, but in three of those games he had only two receptions. Dallas is pretty stingy to opposing TEs. Again, you can do better.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit D/STs

Start em D/ST: San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens

I like both defenses in this game. San Fran is #1 in the league in points allowed (14.5 per game) and Baltimore is #3 (17.6). Plus, neither team’s QB exactly inspires confidence. So expect a physical, low-scoring game, with both defenses looking to make the play that turns the tide and wins it.

If you happen to have both defenses, the edge goes to San Francisco because of the added dimension and potential Ted Ginn brings in the return game.

San Francisco 49ers fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 3+ sacks, 2 turnovers

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 2+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start em D/STs:

• The Dallas defense isn’t an automatic start, not after giving up 24 points to Sexy Rexy and the Rexskins, but they are a decent play against Miami.

Sit em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (at Dallas)

I know that the Miami defense has been very good lately, especially last week against Buffalo, but this Dallas offense is light years better than Buffalo’s. Miami has faced Matt Cassel, John Beck, and Ryan Fitzpatrick during their three-game winning streak. This week they face at hot Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Laurent Robinson in Cowboys Stadium. That’s not favorable.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs:

• Is there anyone who doesn’t expect a shootout in Detroit? Though both defenses have weekly sack and TD potential, it’s a safe bet to expect 60+ points in this game. I wouldn’t want either D playing for me (but Green Bay would be the choice if I had to play one.)

**********

I’m looking back on my selections, and I just realized I told you to sit a wide receiver and a tight end in what could be the highest-scoring Thanksgiving Day game ever. I’m not re-thinking either suggestion though. The potential is there, but the production just hasn’t been evident on the field to make me trust either Jones or Finley. We’ll see how those picks work out.

And don’t forget about the Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout. Click here to enter and make your Thanksgiving Day of football even more exciting.

Jon will be here tomorrow with start/sit advice on the rest of the Week 12 action. The comment section is open for your questions. Try to keep this thread Thanksgiving-specific if you can…although I guess it doesn’t really matter.

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving to all!

So please indulge me in a quick rant before we get to this week’s Power Rankings.

I also check ESPN a lot, especially on Sunday afternoons to check football scores when I don’t have a computer nearby. ESPN has a scrolling scoreboard for all NFL games on their home page with each team name abbreviated. I can understand why, because obviously abbreviations take up less space than non-abbreviated things.

For instance, Minnesota is shortened down to MIN and Chicago is CHI, but what I can’t stand is when they abbreviate for teams like New England or San Diego or any other team whose location includes two words. New England should be abbreviated to NE, not NWE. San Diego should be SD, not SDG. Same goes for GNB, SFO, and NOR. It is not necessary and completely messes me up.

Come on ESPN, let’s not make things more difficult than they need to be. Go back to two letter abbreviations where they are necessary and make sense.

Some quick NFL stuff:

• Baltimore is a very confusing team
• Kansas City looks to be screwed (again),
• The Bengals kind of look like a playoff team
• The Lions don’t look like a playoff team
• The Browns play the absolute worst football in the league, despite winning three games.

Remember when everyone thought the Browns were a “playoff sleeper”? Or when the Lions were going to win 10 games? Or when I said the Cardinals were going to win the NFC West?

I blame David Stern. We can all agree to blame everything on him right?

On to the Week 11 Power Rankings.

1. Green Bay Packers 9-0
2. San Francisco 49ers 8-1
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3
4. New Orleans Saints 7-3
5. Houston Texans 7-3
6. New England Patriots 6-3
7. Chicago Bears 6-3
8. Cincinnati Bengals 6-3
9. Baltimore Ravens 6-3
10. Detroit Lions 6-3
11. Dallas Cowboys 5-4
12. New York Giants 6-3
13.  Buffalo Bills 5-4
14. Oakland Raiders 5-4
15. New York Jets 5-4
16. Atlanta Falcons 5-4
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-5
18. San Diego Chargers 4-5
19. Denver Broncos 4-5
20. Tennessee Titans 5-4
21. Philadelphia Eagles 3-6
22. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-6
23. Cleveland Browns 3-6
24. Kansas City Chiefs 4-5
25. Seattle Seahawks 3-6
26. Washington Redskins 3-6
27. Arizona Cardinals 3-6
28. Carolina Panthers 2-7
29. Minnesota Vikings 2-7
30. Miami Dolphins 2-7
31. St. Louis Rams 2-7
32. Indianapolis Colts 0-10

That’s probably how a lot of you felt after last week’s fantasy results. If you had a bad week, join the crowd.

It appears that certain defenses (the Cowboys, Titans, and others) may have finally caught up with certain offenses (Bills, Panthers, and others) after the long offseason, which led to some surprising and disappointing performances in Week 10.

But not for Aaron Rodgers owners. Never for Aaron Rodgers owners.

No worries.  If you have a bad week, it’s not your fault; it was just one of those weeks.  Good grief, the Chicago Bears’ DEFENSE was the number one fantasy player last week.  Let’s just write it off as an off week and get back on the horse, ready for Week 11.

Last Week’s Picks: 9 for 18 (50 %)

• Hits: Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, KC/Denver Running Backs, Michael Turner, Knowshon Moreno, NE Running Backs
• Misses: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Breaston, Pierre Garcon, Josh Cribbs, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Just a reminder, the following teams are on bye this week…so make sure to rest any players on these teams:

• Indianapolis
• New Orleans
• Pittsburgh
• Houston

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 11: QB

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow

I understand I will probably be the ONLY fantasy “Expert” this week who will predict success for Tim Tebow against the Jets in Week 11.  Just hear me out.

After starting only FOUR games out of ten, Tebow is already the 23rd ranked QB in all of Fantasy.  Not the 23rd best QB since he became a starter…the 23rd best QB for the entire year.

Now I know Tebow looked bad against a Detroit defense that put a lot of pressure on him – something that the Jets will definitely try to emulate; but the Jets’ passing defense isn’t exactly elite.  They rank 8th overall, which isn’t too shabby, but they aren’t untouchable through the air (Detroit is ranked 2nd by the way).  And oh, by the way, he still finished with 12 fantasy points against Detroit, which would have been good for 14th best this past week…again, not awesome by any means, but still a starter in deep leagues.

And just think about the matchups.  Darrelle Revis will take away…who?  Does it really matter?  It’s not like the Broncos’ passing attack will REALLY miss Eric Decker, or Demariyus Thomas, or whoever Revis will be guarding.

Remember, you don’t need Tebow to be PRETTY to be effective in fantasy.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 11 projection: 120 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 50 rushing yards, 1 TD (this would be good for 20 points…definitely a a top ten Fantasy QB in almost any given week).

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Eleven:

• Matt Moore – Buffalo’s pass defense is absolutely atrocious.
• Matt Stafford – Bounce back game against a terrible Carolina team.

Sit Em QB: Cam Newton

Is anybody else scared that the league has started to figure him out a little bit?  What Tennessee did last week against the great Cam Newton was interesting – they played him like he was a quarterback.  The Titans basically decided that Newton would probably beat them on the ground a few times a game, as those plays are unstoppable even if you plan for them.  But if they could confuse him in the pocket, they could have success against him.  And they did.

The Lions’ pass defense is, once again, the second best unit in the league.  Be careful starting the wunderkind in Week 11.

Cam Newton fantasy football Week 11 projection: 200 yards, 2 INTs.  40 rushing yards.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Eleven:

• Mark Sanchez – I think the Jets will definitely try to rebound well after the disaster against New England, but with a short week in store I think they rebound on the ground…not with the Sanchize’s arm.
• Joe Flacco – Just…say…no.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I have emphatically said no to Tebow every week since his first as the starter. My reluctance to trust him has had less to do with my faith in his ability – I’m on record numerous times on this site saying I think he can be a winning QB in the right system – and far more to do with my lack of faith in John Fox’s faith in Tebow. I’ve thought that there was at least a decent chance of Tebow being pulled in the last couple of games if things got out of hand, and I wasn’t willing to risk a QB slot on a chance like that. But now, with Tebow grabbing a more firm grip on the starting job, it’s okay to deploy him with some confidence. I wouldn’t particularly want him as my QB this week against an angry Jets team, but I can seem him squeezing out 10-12 points.

As for Cam, the entire time struggled last week. I’m not ready to write him off, but being cautious with rookie QBs is always smart, especially later in the season as their bodies and focus start to hit a wall.

I bet Flacco rebounds and has a better week that you think. It’s his, and the Ravens, M.O.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 11: RBs

Start Em RB: Marshawn Lynch

I’m not really a huge fan of Lynch in general, but he’s actually had a surprisingly solid season so far from a fantasy perspective.  This week, his Seahawks will travel on the road and face a tough division rival on the road.

Lol.

I know.  It’s just the NFC West.  But they WILL be playing the St. Louis Rams…a team who is second to last in the league against the run.  Start Lynch with confidence this week.

Surely Ray Lewis would.

And Tracy Porter…

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 11 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Eleven:

• Reggie Bush – He’s been hot lately, and he should have a hey-day against the Bills.
• Kendall Hunter – I expect the 49ers to run away and hide from the Cardinals this week…and Hunter will be a beneficiary.

Sit Em RB: Beanie Wells

I’ve been very wrong about him this year.  Right now, he’s in the top 12 of all Running Backs.  However, he’s not doing ANYTHING this week against the best defense in the National Football League.  (Scroll down for Jerod’s obligatory love session with the 49ers).

Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 11 projection: 45 total yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Eleven:

• Michael Bush – Minnesota is still VERY good against the run…expect them to make Carson Palmer beat them.
• Kansas City Running Backs – A lot of things going against them this week…the Pats should have a big lead, the Pats are pretty good against the run, and the lack of Matt Cassel will allow the Pats to to focus on the run even MORE.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I think it’s safe to start treating the 49ers’ D like we treat the Steelers’ and Ravens’ defenses in their heyday: you simply don’t start opposing running backs against them. The 49ers give up 73.2 yards rushing a game, and the next rushing touchdown they give up will be their first this season.

As for Lynch, agreed. I’ve been slow to jump on his bandwagon as well, but he’s earned it. And the matchup is very, very tasty this week.

I would caution folks against sitting Michael Bush though. Minnesota’s run D is good, but it’s not great; and Bush has proven that he can put up numbers when Run DMC is hurt (and he still has not practiced). Palmer may well throw early and often, but the Raiders’ are a run-first team, and Bush is good enough to start against a defense (except, of course, the 49ers).

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 11: WRs

Start Em WR: Mario Manningham

The Giants and Eli Manning will have something to prove against the Eagles on Sunday Night, and Philadelphia won’t be able to do much about it.  Asomugha will probably match up against Nicks, and Victor Cruz will garner more attention as he’s been targeted a lot in recent weeks.  Look for the speedster from Michigan to have a big night.

Mario Manningham fantasy football Week 11 projection: 7 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Eleven:

• Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers.
• Mike Williams – Green Bay is pretty bad against the pass…I like Tampa Bay’s potential against them in the air.

Sit Em WR: Eric Decker

Revis Island.  I think Decker will actually beat him deep once…but not for a TD.

Eric Decker fantasy football Week 11 projection: 2 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Eleven:

• Dwyane Bowe – Rough day for the Chiefs…Matt Cassell’s injury will hurt them all.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I feel like we may need to institute some rules in this column to challenge you Jon. The first rule would be this: you are not allowed to pick a wide receiver going up against the best cover corner since Deion whose QB just completed two passes in a win. I mean come on. Could it get any more obvious?

However, to show you that I still love you anyway Jon, I will implore readers to check out your terrific analysis of the differences between college basketball and the NBA, and why you are so much more a fan of the latter.

Now, you’re Dwayne Bowe pick is excellent. At least let him show that he and Tyler Palko have come chemistry before you trust him this late in the season.

I agree with all of your start picks, especially Mike Williams. No really, this is the week he finally breaks out and gets into the end zone. I PROMISE!

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 11: TEs

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen

I think Cam will have to check down an awful lot as Detroit puts a lot of pressure on him and shows him some more elaborate coverages.  Olsen should rise to the occasion and have a pretty nice game in the process.

 Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 10 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards

Sit Em TE: Jermichael Finley

I know he’s a top five fantasy Tight End in terms of talent…but he’s just WAY too inconsistent for my liking.  Be careful of starting him against the Buccaneers.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

I actually have to disagree with both of these picks. While I appreciate your logic in taking Olsen, also consider that the Lions are giving up just 5.9 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this year. The Bucs, on the other hand, are one of the more generous teams to opposing tight ends, giving up 8.0 points. I share your frustration with Finley’s inconsistency, but it looks like he is starting to become a more integral part of the offense after his very slow Week 6 and 7 performances.

Another guy to get back in your lineups is Vernon Davis. He finally broke out last week, and I look for a lot more of that in the future, especially as the 49ers continue to trust Alex Smith more and more.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 11: D/ST

Start Em Defense: Jacksonville and Cleveland

Let me just warn you…this should absolutely NOT be a game that you watch even one second of.  However, both fantasy defenses should have a field day in a game that just might finish 6-5.

Sit Em Defense: San Diego

Chicago has really shown me something the last few weeks.  Even if Jay Cutler hasn’t been consistently lighting it up, they have been scoring a lot of points regardless.  Plus, is there more of a slam dunk than Devin Hester against the horrendous Chargers’ special teams units?  Expect Chicago to be playing with a lot of short fields, and put up a lot of points in a game that ends up being a surprising shootout.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

The Jacksonville and Cleveland choices are solid, but question: did you ask Andy Bottoms if it was okay to reference his thoughts from this week’s waiver wire column without attribution?

It’s tough to trust anything going on in San Diego right now, so I can definitely get on board with that pick.

As for an under-the-radar defense to consider, how about the Dolphins? I know they’re competition hasn’t been great lately, but they’ve still shut down to two NFL teams in back to back weeks (Chiefs, Redskins) and they take on the struggling Bills this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws a lot of picks.

**********

The Week 11 Start/Sit picks are in the books. But of course, this is only the beginning. Now the real fun begins in the comment section, so load it up with lineup-specific questions and we’ll get to them throughout the week, culminating with our marathon Sunday morning start/sit live chat, which will go off at 11:00 ET and run all the way up until kickoff.

And don’t forget to stop by and say hello to our friends at Daily Joust. It’s one of the only sites on the web where you can play weekly fantasy NFL, college football, college basketball, NHL, and NBA games…well, scratch that last one, for now…and you’re also helping to support MSF when you sign up.

Good luck in Week 11 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.

As I stop with the filibuster lines, let’s discuss the injuries that have begun to rear their many ugly heads.  And I’m not just talking about injuries to players on your roster. Something else to pay attention to is injuries to your players’ opponents. These can sometimes affect your guys greatly. For example, Johnathan Joseph will play this week against Tampa Bay, but his hamstring isn’t 100%.

As a matter of fact, in the NFL, after week 1 nobody is 100% anymore. This is a tough game we play we with tough decisions, and we highlight who is healthy enough and good enough to play in this week’s stock report.

Fantasy Football Week 10: Stocks Up

Mark Sanchez

Don’t look now but Mark Sanchez is having a pretty good year. Aside from that horrible game against the Ravens, his play since then, especially against the Patriots, has been fairly encouraging.

Maybe playing under the radar is what suits him best; and between the Pats and Jets, New York is the team that is playing like they want to win the division right now. Tune in Sunday at 8:20 to find out.

Reggie Bush

Fantasy points or Kim Kardashian? This is quite the perplexing question, but it goes directly to Reggie since we all know she is back on the market, so he has some decisions to make.

While he may want to have his cake and eat it too, fantasy owners have to be excited about his 6.9 ypc average over the last two weeks against some formidable defenses. He is running better every week, and when you add his catching into the equation a pleasant surprise should come from this.

Ben Tate

Don’t be afraid to play Ben Tate just because he sits behind one of fantasy’s best running backs. With Andre Johnson continuing to have issues with his hamstring, the Texans are going to do what they do best and that is run the football up and down the field.

Jerome Simpson

After seeing the early season success of the Dalton to Green connection, the truth will show whether this Bengals offense can keep them relevant in the AFC North. Four straight games against divisional opponents will pose a challenge, so if anyone needs to step up more for this team it is Simpson. The stats don’t lie, his 15.8 yard average is best on the team.

Sidney Rice

To win against the Ravens, Seattle simply won’t be able to run the ball, sorry Mr. Lynch.  If they really want to win, trying to expose the sometimes vulnerable Baltimore secondary is the way to go about it. This all hinges on the ability for the offensive line to block long enough for Tavaris Jackson to throw the ball downfield. This is truly wishful, but not absurd, thinking.

Brent Celek

14 catches over the last two weeks is good for anybody…but a tight end?  Pure excellence.

Jake Ballard

Eli Manning is a very good quarterback and he loves his tight ends. Jake Ballard is going to get a lot of looks in the red zone and for some reason teams haven’t caught on. Ride this one for as long as you want.

Fantasy Football Week 10: Stocks Down

Tony Romo

That Buffalo defensive secondary doesn’t play around when it comes to causing turnovers.  Given Romo’s history in games that are important, there isn’t a lot to be happy about when the Cowboys and Bills face off to see who is going to stay afloat in their respective divisions.

Matthew Stafford

The Bears gave Stafford his 2^nd lowest fantasy game back in week 5, but the tide could and most likely will change this week.  Chicago plays better at home, and they are tired of hearing how good the Lions are and need to keep up in the tight wild card race, so expect a tough game that is going to be rough on the offensive statistics.

Ray Rice

Are the Ravens for real?  Probably, but this week could see Joe Flacco developing some rapport with his young receivers in a game that the Ravens should win pretty easily. Rice may see some action in the passing game but as far as running the ball, the matchup isn’t good.

Rashard Mendenhall

Big Ben is arguably the most important player to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which creates a passing environment causing Mendenhall to take a back seat. In the grand scheme of things, this works out well for him as he doesn’t have to take a beating every game, but this is fantasy and that is no good for us.

Julio Jones

Atlanta knows that if they want to beat the Saints, running the football up and down the field is really the only option. Besides, New Orleans is so well coached that letting an upstart like Jones go off again for a 100+ yard game with a couple scores is out of the question.

Brandon Lloyd

Aside from a mental lapse by the whole defense in week one, nobody, and I mean nobody can say they have given Joe Haden problems this year. Plug in the fact that Lloyd and Bradford are still extremely new to each other, it is going to be some time before the gaudy fantasy numbers that owners are hoping for will surface.

New England TE’s

Who do you feel is the best team in the AFC East right now?  The Jets are playing like it right now, and they have a big home game against the Pats on Sunday. During the meeting in week 5, Gronkowski and Hernandez went on to score a combined 8 points. For all the doubters out there downing the Jets defense, know that it is still elite and will cause some problems for these guys.

Falcons D/ST

A “recurring theme” is the term that best explains what happens to defenses that go up against Drew Brees, and that theme is points given up. We used to be able to say that about Phillip Rivers, but I’ll put the salt down for now. As for the Falcons, this season has been somewhat of a disappointment, and when teams are down, the Saints go for the jugular. If the offense can stay on the field long enough, then things should be ok for this defense…but it doesn’t look that way with Brees and Co in town.

This is a question I’ve been thinking about a lot over the past several weeks, as I continue to be more and more impressed (and surprised) by how well Cam Newton is transitioning to the NFL in his first season.

Cam Newton’s Impressive Start

Frankly, I did not think that Newton was going to become a good NFL quarterback. I certainly did not think it would happen this quickly. But this is why I blog about the NFL in my underpants while typing with Cheetos-stained fingers and other people get paid to scout and draft players*.

* – Of course, plenty of people who do not blog about the NFL in their underpants with Cheetos-stained fingers, and who get paid to scout players, agreed with my assessment about Newton. This just goes to show how inexact a science scouting quarterbacks can be. Except for this guy.

As good as he’s been,nobody is ready to put Cam Newton into Canton yet. It takes more than 8 statistically strong games to classify someone as an elite QB, especially when six of those games have resulted in losses.

In fact, we’re going to learn a lot about Newton over these final 8 weeks while the Panthers essentially “play out the string” and Newton is forced to endure the first losing season of his football career. Leading your team in spite of adversity is one of the most important attributes for a successful NFL QB. We’ll see if Newton has that ability. So far he’s given us no reason to doubt him.

Certainly there is no reason to doubt Newton’s physical skills. He is passing for nearly 300 yards per game (299.1), completing 60.6% of his passes, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. Those are solid numbers for any quarterback, let alone a rookie, and they are made even more impressive when his superlative running stats added to the discussion: 5.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns.

And the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Whereas Tim Tebow’s numbers are not nearly as poor as you might think, and in fact compare favorably to several Hall of Famers’ stats through five starts, Tebow hasn’t looked at all like an NFL QB. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has. He’s played with poise throughout games, including late, and he’s shown that he can make all the throws. He also has shown the ability to hit guys for big plays down the field when they are a open, which is an absolute requisite skill for a quarterback in the NFL. When a QB has a chance to make a big play, it must be made more often than not; simple as that.

Newton has been far from perfect, and he has plenty of growing to do, but I don’t think anyone is anything but highly impressed with his first eight games as an NFL quarterback. Many may not have been as low on Newton as I was before the season, but I doubt anyone other than Cam himself expected this kind of success out of the gate.

And all of this leads me back to my original question: how many NFL teams would trade their QB right now for Cam Newton?

Hypothetically Speaking…

For our purposes, assume that everything is how it is (team records, contracts, rosters, coaches, etc) and that every NFL team is given the option of swapping its current QB right now for Newton. I admit that is 100% ridiculous because Carolina wouldn’t trade Cam Newton for anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers…), but humor me for the sake of discussion. The result of this hypothetical transaction would be Newton quarterbacking the team for the rest of this season, in place of their current QB, and then being their QB through the rest of his rookie contract.

There are a number of easy answers on both sides, teams that wouldn’t even think twice about saying yes or no:

• Automatic No: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants
• Automatic Yes: Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, Seattle

I shouldn’t have to defend any of the automatic “no” choices. Each team has a Super Bowl-winning QB, and each team feels it is a contender this season. As tantalized as they may be by Newton, none of these teams would trade their guy for him. (And anyone who doesn’t think Eli deserves this kind of respect is, in my opinion, crazy.)

As for the automatic yeses, I can maybe-possibly see some saying that Tennessee and Jacksonville have “QBs of the future” in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, but both teams would have rather had Newton in the draft and surely would rather have him now. These and the others are absolute no-brainers to me.

Now let’s go one-by-one through the remaining teams and figure out a) if they would trade their current QB for Cam Newton, and b) if they should trade their current QB for Cam Newton, because I bet the answers won’t often be the same. Of course these are all just my opinions based on how I see each team’s situation.

As always, I encourage disagreement, discussion, and even constructive criticism. That’s what comment sections are for. And there is a poll at the end of this post so we can crowdsource some kind of consensus for the non-obvious teams.

Here goes…

Buffalo Bills – Ryan Fitzpatrick (current record: 5-2)

The Bills just locked Fitzpatrick up to a long-term contract that will pay him $24 million and keep him as the signal caller in Buffalo for at least the next 2-3 years. Considering the deal Arizona signed Kevin Kolb to in the offseason, Fitzpatrick certainly deserves this contract. He has passed for 1,739 yards this year and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and he’s led Buffalo to first place in the AFC East. There is perhaps concern that Fitzpatrick is playing over his head, as his current completion rate is 8 points higher than his career average, and his QB rating is 20 points higher than his career average, but Fitzpatrick also could just be showing the normal progression that a good young NFL quarterback will make.

Personally, I’m not sold on Fitzpatrick as a top-tier option for the future who can compete against the likes of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning If He Plays Again (his new name). Fitzpatrick is a solid guy who can transition you from one franchise QB to the next, but I don’t think he is the type of QB who will make you a winner year in, year out. Cam Newton may be. But with the Bills sitting in first place in the AFC East, and the good feelings of the contract still fresh, I don’t think they’d make the move even though I would.

• Would they? No
• Should they? Yes

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (4-3)

This is one of the more intriguing ones.

Even though Mark Sanchez has really done nothing to show that he can or will become a top-tier NFL quarterback (54.7% completions, 41 TD:39 INT for career), he has ridden the coattails of a great defense and an above-average running game to two straight AFC title games. His coach continues to profess confidence in him, and I think would rather win with “his guy” Sanchez, or die trying, than admit he was wrong and bring in another QB…at least right now.

Simply put: I think most objective people would make this trade in a heartbeat, and maybe the Jets front office would force it to happen; but I think Rex Ryan is so dug in with Sanchez that he’d do everything to veto it and give Sanchez another chance to finish the job this year. (I’ll be curious to hear from Jets fans on this one…)

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (5-2)

Here is another one where short-term success might lead to myopic thinking.

The Bengals are, shockingly, sitting at 5-2 with their red-haired rookie QB and glue-handed rookie WR leading the offense. The Bengals’ defense has been great so far this season, but Dalton has been far from just a caretaker. He’s thrown 9 TDs and is completing 62.4% of his passes. Dalton’s sprint out of the gate has been nothing short of shocking.

But here is where I throw a little cold water on the fire: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Buffalo is good, the other four teams are not. So do we really know how good Dalton is? I don’t think so. In his one start against a god defense this year, Week 3 versus San Francisco, he was putrid. We’ll know a lot more about Dalton after his four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Like many teams, Cincy would have jumped at the chance to draft Cam Newton, but their first place positioning in the AFC North, and the fans’ growing attachment to Dalton, plus their history of personnel ineptitude, lead me to believe that the Bengals would forgo the chance to get Newton to hang onto Dalton. It would be a mistake.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

As you can see, I have little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, or Andy Dalton, at least in relation to Cam Newton; but I also have little faith that any of their teams would trade them for Newton.

This next one though might be the most intriguing of all.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco (5-2)

Ever since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB in Baltimore, the Ravens’ offense has been as up-and-down as any offense in the NFL. Flacco has seven games in which he has tossed three or more touchdowns. He also 24 games in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns, including four playoff games (though he often gets credited with being a “winning” playoff QB). All the while, Baltimore has had a good-to-great defense and a solid running game.

Now in his fourth year, and with just one TD pass in his last four games, can the Ravens and team leaders like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs really still have that much confidence in Flacco? I know they call him “Joe Cool” because he never seems rattled, but that’s mostly because he barely looks like he has a pulse at times. Cam Newton also never gets rattled, but he plays with an energy and smile that are both infectious. Yes, I’m one of those who believes that how you “look” and what your body language says means something when you’re the QB. Whatever Flacco may have over Newton in experience is negated by his comatose on-field appearance.

All of this is to say that I would, in a heartbeat, trade Flacco for Newton if I was the Ravens. After the last four games, and with Lewis especially running out of time, I think the Ravens would too.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning (0-8)

Of course the Colts would trade Curtis Painter straight up for Cam Newton. Duh. But what’s the fun in that? The real juicy question would be, right this very moment, would the Colts trade Peyton Manning If He Plays Again for Newton? And the answer is that none of us have enough information to answer. It would all come down to Manning’s health.

If there is even an iota of a chance that he can come back and play at 80-85% of his previous effectiveness, Indy would hold onto Peyton. But if they doubt he ever plays again, even if he wants to and is working like the dickens to get back, wouldn’t Indy have to trade for Cam as opposed to waiting around to see if they suck enough for Luck?

Ultimately, I think the uncertainty would tip the scales in favor of keeping Manning, and that’s the right call. It feels like there is something unfinished about Manning’s tenure in Indianapolis, and though I logically know that neck injuries can end careers, I’d still be shocked if Manning never suits up for Indy again. So I can’t see Indy pulling the trigger on this move. And with the team possibly positioning itself to draft Andrew Luck anyway, there would be no reason to trade Manning before they know as much as possible about his potential comeback.

I anticipate a lot of debate and perhaps disagreement about this one. In fact, I’m already starting to disagree with myself. I better just move along.

• Would they? No
• Should they? No

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub (5-3)

I don’t think for a second that Houston would even entertain this thought, not with Schaub and Kubiak finally on the cusp of making it to the playoffs. As good/bland as Schaub may be, good/bland isn’t necessarily an awful thing for a QB to be on a team that has a great running game, an elite WR, and a strong defense. This is the first time Houston has had all three working in the same season, and Schaub is the right guy to lead them. I wouldn’t mess with what they have going right now, not with the AFC South up for grabs this year and into the future, and I don’t think they would either.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers (4-2)

Coming into this season it would have seemed laughable for Philip Rivers to be on this list, and perhaps it still is, but Rivers has thrown 7 TDs against 9 INTs this year, and it’s not like he has a Super Bowl title or many playoff skins on the wall to grant him immunity from at least entering this discussion.

Still, I doubt there is a chance the Chargers would seriously consider it. Rivers has a strong regular season track record over multiple seasons, and he has undoubtedly been hurt by Antonio Gates’ absence early this season. Just like I don’t think teams should overreact to a fast early season start and overrate their players (as may be the case right now in Buffalo and Cincy), I don’t think teams should underrate their players because of a slow start.

The irony of ironies, of course, is that the slow-starting Chargers are off to a fast 4-2 start during the season when their QB has more or less stunk. Go figure.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Vick (3-4)

Another one that is fascinating to think about. The Eagles went all-in on this season and are just now starting to dig themselves out of their early season hole. As tempting as it might be to get Newton, who is similar to Vick but with 6-7 years less mileage, I can’t see Andy Reid doing it. Vick is the better choice for this season and the Eagles are in it to win it in 2011.

That said, I think Newton is showing the ability to do a lot of the things Vick couldn’t or wouldn’t do early in his career. I’d love to see what Reid could do with a guy like Newton, who is not quite the runner Vick is but who is light years ahead of where Vick was as a passer in his rookie season. Just because the Eagles picked this year as the year to go for it all doesn’t mean they should necessarily mortgage a chance to improve themselves for the long term. And is Vick really playing so well that Newton couldn’t come close to replicating him, thus keeping the Eagles in contention this year? I don’t think so.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo (3-4)

Whatever my answer is here it is sure to stir up some controversy, just because that’s how any discussions about Tony Romo are sure to go.

I’ve always been a Romo supporter, thinking that his critics didn’t give him enough credit for being one of the top 10 QBs in the league. While I still think Romo is an above average QB, I’m not as sold on him anymore as a potential champion. Sure, with the right supporting cast he could win a Super Bowl – hell, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl – but I’m no longer sure that Romo can lead a franchise to a Super Bowl, and there is a big difference.

I don’t know if Cam Newton can lead a team to a Super Bowl either. It’s way to early to even consider such questions. But we did just see him lead his college team to a championship in the toughest conference in all of college football, all while rumors and innuendo and investigations were swirling around him constantly. Newton’s got it, whatever it is, and Tony Romo hasn’t proven that he does. So wouldn’t it be worth taking a chance on Newton if you’re convinced Romo probably can’t be the guy to lead a champion?

The answer to this one comes down to your belief in Romo. I no longer believe. Give me Cam. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Jerry Jones probably still believes in Romo. At the least, he believes in his own ego and won’t want to admit Romo can’t get it done. Hell, he wouldn’t even trade Martellus Bennett to Cincinnati for a second round pick. Why would he trade Romo for Newton?

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford (6-2)

I considered putting the Lions in the automatic no category, but Mr. Glass didn’t deserve to be considered on par with Brady, Ben, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees. He hasn’t played a full season yet, and he hasn’t been so transcendent when he has played that Detroit wouldn’t at least consider the move.

I don’t think they’d do it though. Even with Stafford making way more money than Cam, he is the guy they have built around, and I don’t think the Lions would shake up the franchise that drastically when it is finally experiencing a true ascension.

As for me, I’d do it. Cam is showing that he knows how to utilize a top-fight receiver, and he he does not carry the same injury-prone reputation of Stafford. Add in the cost savings of Newton’s contract over Stafford’s, and I’d much rather have the rookie over the third year guy, even for the rest of the this year and certainly beyond.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler (4-3)

See the entry above about Joe Flacco, replace his name with “Jay Cutler” and replace “Ray Lewis” with “Brian Urlacher”. There is no reason for me to repeat myself.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder (2-6)

Ponder and the Vikings beat Newton and the Panthers this past weekend, with Ponder having his second straight impressive start. And while Vikings fans are slowly talking themselves into the Ponder Era, the reality is that the Vikings would have traded St. Paul to draft Newton last year, and as polished as Ponder seems to be both on and off the field, he doesn’t have 1/10th the physical potential of Newton. Minnesota probably should have been an automatic.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman (4-3)

Freeman was the up-and-coming superstar young quarterback coming into this season, but he has fallen back down to earth a bit through the first half of the year. His interceptions are way up, and he just doesn’t seem as comfortable or confident as he was last year, when he and rookie Mike Williams were as explosive as just about any QB-WR combo in the league.

Still, despite his struggles, I think Tampa Bay is committed to Freeman as the future of its franchise, and I know that Raheem Morris (who coached Freeman in college) believes in his young QB. Freeman is another guy who surprised me by having a smoother transition to the NFL than I thought he would. He has all of the physical tools to bust out of his current slump and still become a top-10 QB. I’d hold tight, and I think Tampa Bay would too.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan (4-3)

Like the Lions with Stafford, I don’t think Atlanta would consider making this move for more than a few seconds, but Ryan is not quite the slam dunk franchise QB that some make him out to be. He has not risen to the occasion in the Falcons’ biggest games, and he does not possess the accuracy that the top flight quarterbacks all have. He does “look” the part, he’s tough, and he’s a strong leader, which is why Atlanta is surely satisfied with Ryan and not looking to move on, nor should they be. As many questions as I have about Ryan, he’s shown enough to make me think that, unlike Romo, he could lead a franchise to a Super Bowl. With the investment Atlanta has already made in him, they’d hold tight, and I agree.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith (6-1)

Another very, very intriguing one simply because of how this season has started. This one falls right in line with the Bills and Bengals, two teams doing far better than anyone expected thanks to solid play from their QB. Smith has not been asked to win games for the 49ers this year, he’s just been asked not to lose them with a great defense and solid running game by his side. And he hasn’t.

Still, this is Alex Smith. He has not done anything spectacular this year that Cam Newton couldn’t have done, even as a rookie. The issue would be whether Newton would have made mistakes that Smith wouldn’t have made to sabotage the 49ers in a game or two. That I don’t know. But I do know that, again, this is Alex Smith. As solid as he’s been, and as much of an impact as Jim Harbaugh has made on him, the difference in talent and swagger between he and Newton is obvious.

To me, the 6-1 record of the 49ers, and their incredible four game lead this early in this season, would make the team more likely to do such a deal. They’d have some cushion if Newton struggled to adapt to his new surroundings; though one thing we have learned about Newton is that he rarely if ever struggles to adapt. It may be his greatest strength of all.

• Would they? Yes (Well…maybe…probably)
  
• Should they? Yes
  

St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford (1-6)

Following right along with my thoughts on Stafford and Ryan, I don’t think there is much of a chance that St. Louis would pull the plug on the Bradford Era already, especially considering Bradford was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year last year and just needs protection and a few good targets to showcase his pinpoint accuracy. But like Stafford and Ryan, Bradford hasn’t earned Automatic No status. So the Rams might think about it, especially considering the money, but I think they’d stick with Bradford, and I wouldn’t blame them. I still think he’s going to be a star.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Kolb (1-6)

I thought long and hard about putting Arizona in Automatic Yes territory, but would they really cut the cord on Kolb so soon after giving him a long-term deal? Of course they should, but we know how egos sometimes get in the way of sound decision making, so I just wonder if they would.

Ultimately, I think so. Larry Fitzgerald has to be watching Cam Newton resuscitate Steve Smith’s career and get horribly jealous. That’s what Kolb was supposed to do for Fitzy, but obviously he hasn’t come close. Not that Arizona should be surprised by this mind you, because Kolb is basically just doing exactly what he did in Philadelphia. What, should he have turned down the money?

I don’t think it would take Arizona very long to say yes here.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

###

So, how many teams would trade their current QB for Cam Newton right now?

Okay, let’s tally up the “would they” column, as decided by me:

• No: Buffalo, New York Jets, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Combined with the automatics from up above, that means I think 14 teams would trade their current starting quarterback straight up for Cam Newton. That seems very low to me; and of course it would seem low to me because I personally project a lot of disconnect between what teams should do and what they would do were this a real rather than hypothetical situation.

If I tally it up in terms of my “should they” answers, it would look much different:

• No: Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Buffalo, New York Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Based on what I would do in each team’s case, I think 20 teams’ QB situations would be improved immediately with Cam Newton. Maybe for a few there would be a short-term step back, but it would be worth it for the projected long-term steps forward.

But what I am really interested in here is your opinion.

Below is a poll that lists all of the teams I think are not obvious. Vote for all of the ones who you think should (not necessarily would) trade their current QB straight up for Cam Newton in our hypothetical fantasy. Then take to the comment section to state your peace or to agree/disagree with any of my assessments.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I invite your thoughts below.

Here’s your injury update for week 8!

AFC North

The Baltimore Ravens wide receiver, Lee Evans, will miss Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals. Evans has missed the past four games recovering from an ankle injury. According to the Ravens website, Evans is at the end of his recovery and should be back in the game soon.

The Cleveland Browns are hurting from a few injuries this week. Mohammad Massaquoi, wide receiver, suffered a concussion and will sit out of Sunday’s game against the San Fransisco 49ers. Fellow teammate and tight end, Ben Watson, returned to practice on Friday after suffering from a concussion. Watson is listed as questionable along with running back Peyton Hillis who is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Hines Ward, wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, is listed as questionable. Ward didn’t practice all week due to a sprained ankle.

AFC South

Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson was ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The hamstring injury kept him out last week, and ever after practice, Johnson didn’t feel ready to play.

Running back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts, is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Tennessee Titans. The hamstring injury continues to bother Addai. And for those of you who might care (not sure why you’d be), Kerry Colins, quarterback, has been put on injured reserve after suffering from a concussion.

AFC East

The Buffalo Bills wide receiver Donald Jones will not play in Sunday’s game against the Washington Redskins. Jones is recovering from an ankle injury.

Daniel Thomas, running back for the Miami Dolphins, continues to struggle with hamstring issues. He was limited at practice on Thursday and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.

New England Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis is still dealing with a toe issue that arose two weeks ago. He is listed as questionable, but doesn’t seem to want to give any details about his progress.

AFC West

Running back Mike Tolbert, of the San Diego Chargers, will most likely sit out of Monday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Tolbert is suffering from a hamstring and hand injury. Malcom Floyd, wide receiver, was able to practice a little on Friday along with tight end Antonio Gates, and both will hopefully be set for Monday’s game.

NFC North

The Green Bay Packers lost rookie running back Alex Green last Sunday when playing the Minnesota Vikings. Green will remain out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury he suffered in the game.

The Detriot Lions have seen a few injuries that will take a hit to their team. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been dealing with an ankle injury all week. Stafford was able to practice both Thursday and Friday. Although listed as questionable, it looks as though only a major setback will prevent him from playing. However, running back Jahvid Best has been ruled out after suffering from a concussion. The Lions take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday.

Receiver Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings, is listed as questionable while dealing with a rib injury. Adrian Peterson was dealing with an ankle issue but returned to practice on Thursday and will play in Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers.

NFC South

The New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the St. Louis Rams. Ingram missed the entire week of practice due to a right heel injury.

NFC East

Brandon Jacobs, running back for the New York Giants, is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins because of a knee ailment. Expect him to return to the field.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Wells (Beanie Wells) will be a game time decision for their match up against the Baltimore Ravens. Wells practiced on his bad knee on Thursday, and they were hoping to see him continue to advance.

Wide receiver, Braylon Edwards, for the San Fransico 49ers will also be a game time decision due to a knee injury. Edwards practiced limitedly this week and looked as though he could play, but no one seems to have a for sure answer.

The Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Lynch sat out last week after suffering from back spasms.

Sam Bradford, quarterback for the St. Louis Rams, will miss his second game while he sits out with an ankle injury on Sunday when the Rams take on the New Orleans Saints. Wide receiver Danario Alexander is doubtful for the game as well, as he continues to deal with a hamstring issue.

**********

That’s your injury update for week 8. I hope these games prove to be as exciting as the games of the World Series! Happy football!

As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets.  No worries.

At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.

As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.

Week Six Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness:  Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones

Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez

• Misses: None

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3

• Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

• Misses: Benjamin Watson

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15

• Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4

• Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
• Misses: Jahvid Best

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
• Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8

• Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
• Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram

#####

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• New England
• NY Giants
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well.  Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense.  Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams.  I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling.  Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week?  Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB.  If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
• Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year.  Big day for Stafford and Co.
• Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
• Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers.  Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert

Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore.  Yikes.

Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Cam Newton

Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass.  Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively.  Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
• Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against?  So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt.  Wow.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.

As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)

I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

Monday Night Football against the Jaguars.  Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Ryan Torain

Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run.  Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.

Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
• Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
• Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run.  Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways.  Big day for Michael Turner.

Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs

Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.

Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards

Sit Em – Willis McGahee

The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.”  They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league).  This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games.  Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.

Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter.  Just think about it.
• Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
• Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.

Moving on now…

I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.

As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time.  Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dwayne Bowe

He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary.  Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
• Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week.  Rodgers will get him involved again.
• Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one.  Plus, he’s money in the return game.
• Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints.  Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

I almost feel bad for the guy.  His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Vincent Jackson

A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis.  Not a good combination.

Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards 

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
• Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
• Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.

I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham

He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.

Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Fred Davis

Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.

Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:

• Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.

Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe

Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.

Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards

Sit Em – Dustin Keller

Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.

Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.

Jerod’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST

[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]

Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys

Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
• Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.

Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings

I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.

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That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

Also, don’t forget that if your NFL fantasy team is struggling, or you’re just getting bored with the NFL, our friends over at Daily Joust over weekly college fantasy football games with real money prizes at stake. Check them out:

Here are some tips for those who may have any last minute questions for Week 6.

Under-the-Radar Players to Consider

Andy Dalton

At the beginning of the year, I never thought I would be saying anything positive about Dalton. I also would have never thought that the Bengals would be 3-2, and heading into a very winnable game against the winless Colts in Week 6.

He has already thrown for over one thousand yards with six touchdowns on the year. He will be able to pick apart the Colts secondary with the help of his rookie counterpart A.J. Green.

Earnest Graham

The Bucs are coming off an embarrassing 48-3 loss against the 49ers, and do not face an easy opponent this week in New Orleans. Legarrette Blount is banged up, and Graham will likely see the bulk of the carries. It is a stretch to say that he will garner a large point value, but he is a safe bet to replace anyone that may be on a bye week.

Greg Little

Coach Shurmur of the Browns announced that Little will now be in the starting lineup, replacing Brian Robiske. He hasn’t caught a touchdown yet this year, but this should change now that he is in the starting lineup. The Browns’ use of the West Coast offense benefits the receivers, as they will see the bulk of the action.

Stars Who Could Disappoint

Matt Stafford

The last time I said to sit Stafford, he went out and played great, which is what he has done all year. However, this week he and the Lions are going up one of the better defenses in the league in the surprising 4-1 49ers.

If Stafford is clearly better than any of your backups, then obviously start him. However, if one of your backups has a more favorable matchup, Eli Manning for example, then this could be a week that Stafford stays on the bench.

Frank Gore

Not only are the 49ers a great defensive team, but the Lions are as well. They are solid up front, with Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams anchoring the defensive line.

Gore has had back-to-back 100 yard games on the ground, but those were against the Eagles and Bucs. This week will be much different, and it will be tough for Gore to even reach the 100 yard mark. With bye weeks, you may not have a choice but to play Gore, but if you’re blessed with running back depth, don’t just start him automatically.

Hakeem Nicks

The Giants are going up against the Bills in Week 6. The Bills have struggled against the pass, but that does not mean Nicks will record many points. In fact, in three of Nicks’ last four games he has recorded four or fewer receptions (with the other game being a 10-catch performance.)

Nicks is the Giants’ top receiver, so he will attract most of the attention from the Bills’ secondary. This will open up the field for breakout player Victor Cruz, who is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with 3 along with Nicks. Again, you are probably going to start Nicks, but he’s not as much of a slamdunk stud in Week 6 as he might seem.