Wait…what?

That’s right, you heard me. Makeout sessions. Just look at these pictures and tell me these bros aren’t about to lock lips right there on the gridiron.

First, here are Tommy Brady and Timmy Tebow:

Image credit: Barry Gutierrez/AP via People.com

In this picture, Tebow appears ready to play the role of Gisele, gazing into Tom Terrific’s eyes before planting a wet smackeroo right smack dab on those dreamy lips. He’s even using the age-old technique of grabbing the outside shoulder to guide Brady towards him. This is the technique of a grizzled makeout veteran, not a close-to-holy virgin, so to see Tebow execute it so deftly is both surprising and impressive. He’s a natural, this one.

What’s funny is that even if you didn’t interpret this picture at all like that, the once-unseen-cannot-be-unseen principal applies. Now you can’t look at the picture without seeing it as an impending lip lock, can you?

To prove it, try looking at this picture of Alex Smith and Drew Brees after their epic 4th quarter rendezvous in Candlestick.

Image credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP  via GreenwichTime.com

Smith goes with a different technique than Tebow, choosing instead to control the action with the arm-around-waist strategy. But from his subtle lean back, it’s clear that he wants Brees to make the first move, just like Brees did in the final five minutes of the 4th quarter on Saturday before the game’s fantastic final few minutes.

Another great example of the Postgame QB Kiss phenomenon came in December of 2010 when Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers met up. (Unfortunately, none of yesterday’s pics of the two really qualified; I guess Aaron just wasn’t in the mood.)

Image credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images North America via Zimbio.com

In this picture, Rodgers has clearly accepted the submissive female role. In this sense, Rodgers’ makeout-initiation strategy seems not all that unlike how he and the Packers played yesterday. You can see ARodg placing his right hand gently below Eli’s chest while gazing towards Eli’s awkwardly formed mouth. Eli, with his devil-may-care hairstyle is clearly enamored with Rodgers’ 8:00 shadow, even more than Rodgers’ ability “flight” and “spin” the ball.

As for the fourth game from yesterday, that there was actual QB play in that game is only a rumor, so I didn’t waste time searching for pictures of Fu Manchu Flacco nor T.J. Yates. But you don’t have to dig too deeply into the Google Image Search results to find other such pictures. Just search two high profile QBs’ names together, and you’re sure to find a postgame picture of them that, because of this ridiculous and unnecessary post, you will now see as the early stages of QB tonsil hockey.

Let’s try it. How about…Brees and Peyton Manning?

Yep:

Image source: Gridiron Experts

Brees and divisional rival Matt Ryan?

Image credit: AP via PennLive.com

Okay, so Drew Brees likes kissing other quarterbacks. We get it.

Let’s go the non-Brees Legends Division. How about Jay Cutler and…Brett Favre?

Yep.

Image source: PigskinReport.com

As for the brothers, they seem a bit less likely to gaze longingly into eachothers’ eyes, at least from the 90 seconds of research I just did; rather, they go right in for the bro hug like Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick here:

Image credit: Tim Shaffer/Reuters via Eurweb.com

And it’s not just limited to quarterbacks either. Coaches tend to have the same midfield meetings after games, and most are not like Jim Harbaugh and Jim Scwhartz.

In fact, from time to time we get movie-style dramatic pre-kisses like this one featuring Bill Parcells and his former apprentice Bill Belichick.

Image source: The Sports Blog

Another great example of coaches getting into the act may have occurred this weekend. Showing that he has learned from the Schwartz fiasco, Jim Harbaugh seemed quite gracious in victory with the Saints’ Sean Payton. Watch the video and decide just how gracious.

There are plenty more pictures and videos showing similar postgame closeness between opponents. I’ll let you enjoy the search for them. I think I’ve made my point and now forever ruined your ability to see these ubiquitous postgame photos as they are actually meant to be seen, which is of course as simple friend gestures of sportsmanship.

So…my work here (which probably never should have started) is done.

All that is left to do is let Turk and J.D. take us out with a song that lets all of these kissing combatants know it’s all okay. It’s just guy love…between two guys.

The Saints easily defeated the Lions yesterday, so the winner of this game is heading into Lambeau to take on the 15-1 Packers.

Well, at least the fun will last for a week.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons return to the playoffs after being the top seed in the NFC last season at 13-3. They ended up losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers 48-21. Matt Ryan has led the Falcons to three winning seasons and two playoff berths in his first three seasons, but he has yet to win in the playoffs. Today would be a great time to finally get that first “big” win.

Although Atlanta went 10-6, it is interesting to see how they fared against tougher opponents. They went 1-4 against playoffs teams, with their only win being against Detroit, (losses were against Green Bay, Houston, and New Orleans twice). The last loss against New Orleans turned into a laugher, with the Saints winning 45-16 and Drew Brees breaking Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season.

The offense will have an easier time this week, with the Giants owning the 27th ranked defense and allowing 25 points a game on average. Matt Ryan has two threats at the receiver position, with Julio Jones and Roddy White, along with Tony Gonzalez at tight end.

Michael Turner should be able to have a solid game going up against the Giants run defense which allows just over 121 yards a game. Turner has 1,340 yards on the year with 11 touchdowns, and getting him going early will be crucial for the Falcons. His success can set up the passing game, and make the play-calling less predictable.

New York Giants

After being second-tier news behind the Jets for the past few years, the Giants find themselves at the top of the football echelon in New York once again. They took care of business against Dallas last week to win the unusually average NFC East.

The G-men have a major problem that must be at least partially fixed today, and that is their running game. They are ranked dead last in the league with 89.2 yards per game on the ground. Their leading rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw, only has 659 yards on the year while Brandon Jacobs has 571. Injuries have had an impact on the stats, and even with the lack of yards the two have combined for 16 rushing touchdowns on the year.

The weakness in the running game is more than made up for in the passing game, which is ranked fifth in the NFL. Eli Manning fell 67 yards short of 5,000 on the season, and he has two receivers with over 1,000 yards. Victor Cruz leads the team with 1,536 yards and 9 touchdowns, and he has become one of the most popular receivers in the NFL. He should be able to find the end zone and do his rendition of the “salsa” today.

In their last two games, the Giants’ defense has allowed a combined 28 points. These were against the Jets and the Cowboys, which were both essentially must-win games for both teams involved. This shows how the Giants are capable of stepping up to the occasion, and shutting down the opposing offense. The return of Osi Umenyiora has helped, along with the consistent play of Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck.

Giants-Falcons Prediction

Matt Ryan has not been able to win a big game in his career, and I do not see it happening today. The Giants get to play at home in the stadium that they won in the past two weeks. Eli should be able to make up for the lack of run support, and send his team to a matchup against the Packers.

Giants 31-Falcons 27

**********

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

• Falcons-Giants Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, January 8th at 1:00 on FOX
• Falcons-Giants Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Falcons-Giants Point Spread: Giants -3
• Falcons-Giants Over-Under: 48.5

Here is a list of the many passing and receiving records that were broken or tied during the 2011 NFL season:

Most passing yards in a single season

• Old record: 5,084—Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins, 1984
• Record breakers: 5,476—Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints; 5,235—Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Highest single-season quarterback rating

• Old record: 121.1—Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 2004
• Record breaker: 122.5—Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Most passing yards in a single season for a rookie

• Old record: 3,739—Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 1998
• Record breaker: 4,051—Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Most receiving yards in a single season for a tight end

• Old record: 1,290—Kellen Winslow, San Diego Chargers, 1980
• Record breakers: 1,327—Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots; 1,310—Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints

Most touchdown receptions in a single season for a tight end

• Old record: 13—Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers, 2004 and Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers, 2009
• Record breaker: 17—Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Most net passing yards surrendered in a single season

• Old record: 4,541—Atlanta Falcons, 1995
• Record breakers: 4,796—Green Bay Packers; 4,703—New England Patriots

Most 500-yard passing games in a single season

• Old record: 1 (1951, 1962, 1982, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2006, 2009)
• New record: 2 (Matthew Stafford, 520 in Week 17; Tom Brady, 517 in Week 1)

Most 4,000-yard passers in a single season (tie)

• Old record: 10—2009 (Schaub, P. Manning, Romo, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Favre, E. Manning)
• Tied record: 10 (Brees, Brady, Stafford, E. Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Newton)

Most 5,000-yard passers in a single season

• Old Record: 1—1984 (Dan Marino) and 2008 (Drew Brees)
• New Record: 3 (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford)

Most 3,000-yard rookie passers in a single season

• Old Record: 1—1998 (Peyton Manning), 2008 (Matt Ryan), and 2010 (Sam Bradford)
• New Record: 2 (Cam Newton and Andy Dalton)

Drew Brees shattered records this year with the help of his sentient Muppet football.

There’s your list. I’ll leave it to someone with more football expertise than myself to explain why all of these records went down in a single season. But I would caution you not to write off all these record-breaking performances as a consequence of rule changes to protect quarterbacks and defenseless receivers. While passing numbers have been on an upward trend since the first of these rules was put in place in the 1970s, there isn’t a single 2011 rule change that accounts for all of these records—some of which have stood since the early 1980s—falling this year.

Moving the kick-off to the 35-yard line has not had a substantial effect on starting field position. (Drew Brees’ average starting position this year was his 28.24-yard line; last year he started from the 28.64.) While the league has put a premium on player safety and banned “launching,” it has also eased roughing-the-passer rules so that a player is not penalized for grazing a quarterback’s helmet with his hand. This latter rule should have resulted in more pressure on quarterbacks.

It is also interesting that all of this happened in a year when one of the most prolific passers in league history—Peyton Manning—didn’t play and when Matt Schaub, one of the most prolific passers during the last several seasons, suffered a season-ending injury in November.

Watch the New Orleans Saints (11-3) host the Atlanta Falcons (9-5) to wrap up the last of the Christmas weekend games, and hopefully the holiday lights will not surge all the electrical power from the Superdome like last week at Candlestick Park in San Francisco.

Note that the Saints have secured a spot in the playoffs while the Falcons are still fighting for a Wild Card position. (Click to see the complete NFL playoff scenarios: AFC | NFC)

Let’s take a look at your Monday night entertainment.

The Falcons

The last time Atlanta met the Saints in week 9, they put a pretty good fight falling just three points short of a win. One might blame penalties on the outcome of the last game as the Falcons had 10 penalties for a total of 85 yards.

However, Matt Ryan, errr Matty Ice, is ready to make his mark at the Superdome and take down the Saints on their home turf.

The offense currently ranks 9th in the league for passing yards with 255.8 yards per game. Ryan has 3,698 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also has the help of running back Michael Turner (1,129 yds, 4.1 yds/att, 9 touchdowns) and wide receivers Roddy White (1,100 yds, 12.9 yds/rec, 8 touchdowns), Tony Gonzalez (826 yds, 11.2 yds/rec, 7 touchdowns), and Julio Jones (755 yds, 18 yds/rec, 5 touchdowns).

When the Falcons first met the Saints earlier this season, things were a little shaky on the offensive line. Left tackle Will Svitek was making his third start of the year and Joe Hawley was making his second pro start at right guard. The Falcons have improved their pass protection since that game. They have given up 26 sacks, ranking them 9th in the league, but they have given up 74 quarterback hits, ranking them 26th in the league.

The Falcons defense will have the real challenge against Drew Brees’ arm and the stellar Saints offense. While the Falcons have held their opponents to only 96.6 rushing yards per game, making them fourth in the league, they are not as effective at stopping the passing game (17th in the league with 230.6 yards), which is the Saints ultimate scoring weapon.

Getting the pressure on Brees early in the game will be key to keeping the Saints within the Falcons grasp. Defensive end John Abraham leads the team with 8.5 sacks, and outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon has contributed 4 sacks to the team total of 30.

The Saints

Leading the NFC South, this Saints team is on fire, especially their exceptional offense. Quarterback Drew Brees continues to burn defenses and wow the crowds throwing for 4,780 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

The Saints offense is second in the league for points scored (32.1 per game) and leads the league in passing yards with 331.4 yards per game. With receivers like Jimmy Graham (1,171 yds, 13.5 yds/rec, 9 td), Marques Colston (917 yds, 13.9 yds/rec, 5 td), and Lance Moore (574 yds, 11.5 yds/rec, 8 td), they definitely give Brees a hand in lighting up the field.

If Atlanta has a shot at beating the Saints, it’s because the Saints’ defense is not at the same level as their offense. New Orleans has allowed 256.1 passing yards per game (ranking them 28th in the league) and given up 21.9 points per game (16th in the league).

On November 13th, the Saints easily dominated a majority of the game until the end, when the defense allowed Atlanta to march 85 yards in 1:55 and kick a 27-yard field goal to tie it up. Strong safety Roman Harper and defensive end Will Smith have led New Orleans in sacks for the team (Harper with 7.5 and Smith with 6.5).

My Saints-Falcons Prediction

My initial gut was to go with the Saints, hands down, but I don’t think it’s going to be a blow out for them. Atlanta has shown lots of improvement since they beginning of the season, and they even held the Saints to only a three point win last time they met. With the team eager to give itself a chance to win the NFC South crown, there is no holding back for this Atlanta team.

But…

Drew Brees and his offense are on fire. End of story. While the Saints defense may struggle, the Falcons defense is not strong enough to hold back the power of the Saints offense, especially on their home turf.

Final Score: New Orleans Saints: 35 | Atlanta Falcons: 28

**********

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

• Falcons-Saints Date: Monday, December 26 at 8:30 PM on ESPN
• Falcons-Saints Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Falcons-Saints Point Spread: Saints -6.5
• Falcons-Saints Over-Under Odds: 53

Image source: iSportsWeb

In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.

I finished second to last.

Lame.

Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Nobody cares Jon except for certain other people in that same league who finished in first place with an 11-2 record despite only scoring the 6th-most points but having by far the least points scored against.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!]

Let’s get to this week.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25. Why? Because if you have a guy in the top 20…you should be thinking about starting him anyway. I’m not going to sit here and tell you “enlightening” information like, “LeSean McCoy is going to score points this week!”

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow (at NE)

He’s tied for 18th among QBs…AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED EIGHT GAMES!

If you don’t believe in Tebow yet (and by that, I mean in terms of fantasy football), you probably never will.

Tebow will be playing against the New England Patriots and their league-worst defense. It should also be mentioned that for the first time all year, John Fox was complimentary of Tebow’s passing this past week. He admitted that Tebow is improving a lot, and they will be able to start trusting him more and more in the passing game. This is great news for Tebow-owners.

Will The Broncos win this week? I’m not sure, but that doesn’t matter for your fantasy team.

Tebow will go crazy like he did two weeks ago against Minnesota. New England’s pass defense is ranked dead last in the league. Start Tebow with confidence.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 15 projection: 260 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em QBs for Week 15:

• Tony Romo – Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, and Romo finally has four legitimate receiving weapons now that Miles Austin is back. Add this to the fact that they just lost DeMarco Murray, and I expect Romo to be the #1 QB of Week 15.
• Matt Stafford – Playing against Oakland (Carson Palmer…you can LOL right now). They are awful.
• Andy Dalton – Love his matchup against St. Louis. Cincinnati needs a win right now, and Dalton and AJ Green should make beautiful music in the dome on Sunday.

Sit Em QB: Mark Sanchez (at Philadelphia)

Mark Sanchez is, unbelievably, the 10th ranked QB in all of fantasy right now. Don’t be fooled though.

Sanchez has padded his stats against poor pass defenses. He put up at least 17 points against Dallas, Oakland, Miami, New England, and Buffalo. None of those teams are ranked in the top 14 in the league against the pass. Against Baltimore, Jacksonville, Denver, and Washington, he failed to break THIRTEEN.

The Eagles aren’t a great pass defense, but they are ranked 12th in the league. The way you beat the Eagles is on the ground.
Once you factor Shonn Greene’s resurgence into the picture, Sanchez is a must-sit in week 15.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 15 projection: 180 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other Sit Em QBs for Week 15:

• Alex Smith – I really hope you weren’t planning on starting him. He’s been terrible lately, AND he’s playing the Steelers. Good luck with that, Mr. Smith.
• Matt Ryan – He’s the most hit or miss QB in fantasy. He could very well have a big game, especially if Julio Jones stops dropping the ball, but I think he’s a miss this week. Jacksonville has the 4th best defense in the league against the pass, and both teams are playing off of a short week on Thursday night. Stay away from Matty-Ice this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you picking Tebow as your start ‘em QB this week is the most predictable choice of 2011. It’s also correct.

Picking Sanchez as the sit ‘em QB though? Boy, I don’t know. I certainly do not agree that he a “must sit”. Do you really trust Philly and its defense that much? Even if Shonn Greene does the heavy lifting, the Jets still like to pass in the red zone.  I don’t love Sanchez, and he’s certainly not a “must start” by any means, but he does have 7 TDs over the last three games. I don’t care who they are against, that’s good. Let’s put it this way: you could do worse.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Grant (at Kansas City)

After losing Greg Jennings last week, I have the feeling that Green Bay will start playing a little bit more conservatively late in games. Fortunately for them, Ryan Grant appears to be peaking at the right time.

It always takes a while to fully recover from injury, and Grant appeared to be at top form last week.

Look for Green Bay to start shortening games in the second half as the season ends. They will definitely start this week against Kansas City and their atrocious run defense.

Ryan Grant fantasy football Week 15 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 15:

• Shonn Greene AND LaDainian Tomlinson – Don’t be freaked out that they might steal each other’s points…BOTH players should be good for more then 10 this week against Philadelphia.
• Chris Johnson – Against Indianapolis in a game that really doesn’t matter? (Tennessee is basically out of the playoffs at this point) Come on…I think we all know that this is the type of game that Chris Johnson will EXPLODE in.

Sit Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall (v San Francisco)

I will let Jerod confirm this one by explaining to you once again how impossible it is to run on San Francisco.

Rashard Mendenhall Projections: 60 total yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 15:

• Ryan Mathews – Tough matchup against Baltimore. San Diego will have to air it out to beat the Ravens.
• DeAngelo Williams – Houston is great against the run as well. I actually like Jonathan Stewart a little bit this week – he’s the Panthers’ threat to catch the ball out of the backfield – but stay away from DeAngelo Williams in Week 15.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, I pretty much agree with everything here. I’m not as high on Grant as you are, but I certainly think he’s worthy of playing for the exact reasons you explained.

As for Mendenhall, San Francisco still has not allowed 1,000 total rushing yards this year – they give up just 70.5 rushing yards per game – and have not allowed a single rushing touchdown. Sure, that second stat is a bit fluky (everyone else has allowed at least five) but you can’t even be in a position to have it unless your run D is awesome. I would sit Mendy too. If he scores, oh well. Can you really be upset with yourself?

Other running backs who simply have to be in your starting lineups because of their matchups:

• Felix Jones – yes, Felix Jones. Dallas is playing Tampa Bay, a team that has essentially quit on the season and can’t stop anyone.
• Cedric Benson – the Rams can’t stop anyone from running either.
• Roy Helu – He’s on fire, has Shanahan’s trust, and gets to face a Giants’ D that rushes the passer but barely passes the rushers.
• Arian Foster and Ben Tate – Carolina’s run D is that bad.
• Beanie Wells – Cleveland can defend the pass, at least statistically, in large part because they can’t defend the run.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Demaryius Thomas (v NE)

New England, as I covered before, is just atrocious against the pass. World-renowned Patriots fan Bill Simmons even thinks that Julian Edelman is their BEST defensive back.

Thomas has quickly become Tebow’s favorite target in the end zone ever since he returned from injury. Look for Thomas to have a BIG day again in Week 15.

Demaryius Thomas fantasy football Week 15 projection: 8 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs

Bonus Start Em WR: James Jones (at KC)

Usually, I only give you one guy that I’m super strong on, but I felt that this was too important to skip over.

The Greg Jennings injury will not hurt the Packers too badly; they will just spread around the points a little more. Look for James Jones (and Jordy Nelson) to have a huge day in Jennings’ absence.

James Jones fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em WRs for Week 15:

• AJ Green – Big day for the Cincinnati passing game on the turf in St. Louis. I expect AJ to catch AT LEAST two bombs in this game.
• EVERY wide receiver for the Saints and Vikings playing in Minnesota this week – Both teams are terrible against the pass…both teams have tons of speed…both teams are playing inside. Yay, free points.

Sit Em WR: Roddy White (v JAX)

I hate his matchup, and I hate his QB this week. The only receiver I like for the Falcons this week against Jacksonville is Tony Gonzalez. I would stay away from Roddy AND Julio Jones actually, but Roddy is the guy that’s ranked in the top fifteen, so that is why he is my sit ‘em wide receiver for Week 15.

Roddy White fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 15:

• Michael Crabtree – Won’t do much against the Steelers this week.
• DeSean Jackson – Revis Island.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I was going to say that’s scary how much we are agreeing this week, but then I got down to Roddy White and realized that we do disagree on something. I’m not a huge fan of White’s upside this week, but I do like his consistency. Look at those last three games (all with TDs). That’s tough to sit in the playoffs.

Let me say this about Demaryius Thomas though: be careful. He is still a rookie with questionable hands. And if he hadn’t caught that late TD from Tebow, all people would be talking about regarding him is all the drops early in the game. Can he handle the pressure of a game this big? I like him. He has explosive potential because of his talent and the matchup. Just be careful.

Other guys I particularly like this week include:

• Mike Williams of Tampa – Dallas’ secondary is pretty poor.
• Nate Washington and Damian Williams against Indianapolis.
• Antonio Brown‘s underrated consistency against San Francisco.
• Laurent Robinson – I know that Dallas has all of its weapons back, but they did last week too and he exploded again. He’s not flash in the pan. Romo loves him.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End: Jermichael Finley (at KC)

The irony here is that if you have Jermichael Finley, you probably didn’t advance in your fantasy playoffs after his goose egg from last week. However, I think he will get much more involved in the passing attack now that Greg Jennings is out, and he should have his typical explosive day that he gets once a month.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 15 projection: 95 yards, 2 TDs

(Yes, everybody, I’m well aware that I predicted at least three receiving TDs for the Packers after I said they would run the ball more. I don’t care. I expect all of the throwing to be done in the first half, and then Grant to dominate in the second.)

Sit Em Tight End: Vernon Davis (at PIT)

As you well know, I’m pretty high on the Steelers’ pass defense. This game will be ugly one way or the other, and nobody on the 49ers (outside of their running backs) will have a big game offensively.

Jerod’s thoughts:

What, no “other guys” to start and sit? Come on Jon! This is Week 15!

By the way, I agree on both Finley and Davis. You’d have to have balls of steel to start Finley this week, but those who made it this far probably do.

A couple of other names to consider:

• I know that Aaron Hernandez no longer gets the red zone looks in New England, but there is still value in a tight end who catches 4-5 balls per week and gets 50-70 yards. Plus, he’s due for a TD one of these days right?
• Jake Ballard continues to be a solid under-the-radar selection. He should be as well this weekend against Washington.

Guys not to consider:

• Dallas Clark caught one ball last week in his return to lineup. Don’t be seduced by the name.
• Marcedes Lewis has some yardage potential, but I just don’t see many scoring chances for anyone other than MJD against the Falcons.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Defenses

Start Em Defense: Chicago (v SEA)

They are playing with their backs against the wall, and pretty much have to hold their opponents scoreless. Fortunately for them, they are playing against Seattle. Look for the Bears to contain the Beast and dominate the Seahawks.

Also, whenever their backs are up against the wall, Devin Hester seems to do something crazy, which helps the Bears D/ST unit. 
Da Bears will play well this week.

Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 or fewer points, 2+ turnovers, 2+ sacks, 1 TD

Sit Em Defense: Denver (v NE)

I love Denver’s offense this week, in part because I think the New England offense will have their way with the Broncos.

You can’t stop Rob Gronkowski…even with OLBs as good as Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

I will be cheering for Denver to pull it off again this week, but once again it looks like Tim Tebow will have to carry the load.

Denver Broncos D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 24 or more points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks

Jerod’s thoughts:

Okay, now I forgive you for not doing the “other” tight ends. You stepped up with some D/ST analysis! And I like both picks.

Also consider that Seattle gave up two return TDs to Ted Ginn back in Week 1. While their special teams may now be better, Hester is Hester. He offers lots of upside for Bears owners.

And as for the Broncos, you’re exactly right. Miller and Dumervil are rushing OLBs, not coverage guys. Gronk will dominate, and Welker should find plenty of success too.

Other D/STs to consider:

• Seattle’s D is criminally underrated. Facing Caleb Hanie, they too should be able to get the scoring to a minimum.
• Cincinnati playing at St. Louis is a no-brainer. So is Tennessee at Indy.

D/STs to stay away from:

• Baltimore is excellent, but they are facing a San Diego offense that is starting to click. If I had Seattle or Cincy, I’d play them over the Ravens, who face a desperate Chargers team that literally almost never loses in December.

**********

There you go. 2,500 words of fantasy analysis for Week 15, which should have you all ready to make every lineup decision facing you for Week 15.

Wait…what’s that? You still have questions? Well of course be our guest and pop on down to the comment section below. We’ll take good care of you, as well as be here on Sunday morning for our weekly live chat to make sure you are ready to win your playoff matchup.

Good luck in Week 15 everyone!

“I love the NFL, and I need my start/sit advice for Week 13, but I’m just SO pumped for the Big Ten Championship game this weekend that I can’t even think about it!”

You’re in luck!

Click here (or here for a work-friendly page) and comment, “I want tickets!!!!” in order to win FOUR free tickets to the Big game this weekend between Michigan St. and Wisconsin, courtesy of our friends at Verizon.

Seriously…that’s all you have to do.  What have you got to lose? We’re even going to save you time by helping you out with your start em, sit em questions in this post and in the comment section!

Now on to week 13.

A Quick Piece of Advice…One More Time

There is no room left for excuses.  At this point in the season, we have ALL dealt with injuries.  We have ALL battled through our bye weeks.  We have ALL left points on the table.

If I could give you one piece of advice before the stretch run, it would be something I have emphasized all year: listen to expert advice…but trust your gut first.

Again, none of us have the time to really study fantasy football full time.  It is impossible (well, for those of us who have real jobs) to completely keep track of every single player, every matchup, every injury, and every game.  If you don’t have a good read on a player or a matchup, you should definitely consult “the experts.”

However, so much of fantasy football comes back to gut feelings.

If you have a gut feeling that Ryan Grant is going to run all over the Giants this week, and that gut is based on some stats or game play that you have actually seen, go for it!  Even if the expert disagrees, I would rather go down on my own terms.  Believe me, you will hate yourself if Grant goes off and you started Chris Johnson just because that’s what the expert said.

If you are ambivalent and have no opinion, seek counsel…but don’t be afraid to trust your gut on the tough calls.

Last Week’s Picks: 17 for 25 (68 %)

• Hits: Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, Mike Tolbert, KC Running Backs, Percy Harvin, Laurent Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Devin Hester, Jermichael Finley
• Misses:  Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Garcon (picked the wrong Colt), Mario Manningham, Johnny Knox, Kellen Winslow

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: QB

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow

Fantastic matchup against a Minnesota team that has been reeling lately without Adrian Peterson.

Tebow and the Broncos will be playing in the dome up in Minnesota, which means both he AND Von Miller will play even faster.  I expect Tebow to run wild and for Miller and the incredibly fast Broncos’ defense to force several turnovers.

If Tebow gets a few shots with a short field, he should put up a lot of points this week.

Still not convinced?  He’s 21st in points this year…after starting only 6 games. He’s only 11 points behind Jay Cutler.  Tebow is a must-start right now as the fantasy playoffs approach…amazing.

Tim Tebow Fantasy Projections for Week 13: 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Philly QB – Whether it’s Vick or Young, I think that the Eagles will explode in a game that doesn’t matter.
• Tony Romo – In Arizona, against their atrocious secondary.
• Alex Smith – Enticing matchup against St. Louis in a game that the 49ers want to win big in order to get their mojo back.

Sit Em QB: Matt Ryan

You might be tempted to start Matty Ice this week since Houston will be starting T.J. Yates with Jake Delhomme waiting in the wings.  While it’s true that Atlanta should get more chances than normal, Houston’s defense is one of the top five units in the league, and should make it incredibly tough sledding on Matt Ryan.

If Houston can control clock at all with their fantastic running game, Matt Ryan owners will be in for a long afternoon.

Matt Ryan Week 13 Fantasy Projection: 220 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Andy Dalton – He’s really good…but so is Pittsburgh’s defense.
• QB’s in the KC/Chi game – LOL…don’t even look at this game.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’ve been skeptical of Tebow from a fantasy standpoint ever since he took over the starting job, mostly because I worried about him getting pulled. But with a 5-1 record, the playoffs in reach, and Kyle Orton gone, Tebow is safe through the end of the year. And this is a great matchup, even though Minnesota’s strength is against the run. I’d play him.

I agree that Ryan’s potential is a bit muted this week. Loved him last week, lukewarm on him this week.

Tony Romo is a top 5 fantasy QB this week. Start him. With confidence. (Which means, since it’s Romo, that you should expect him to suck. Because wouldn’t that just be the Romo thing to do?)

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: RBs

Start Em RB: LeGarrette Blount

Blount is ranked 30th overall among fantasy running backs right now, so that makes him on the cusp of starting nearly every single week.  This week, he’s a must start against Carolina.

In fact, Blount may have the best fantasy week among ALL running backs in week 13.

Carolina’s run defense is so bad they made Donald Brown relevant last week.  Just imagine what someone with actual talent will do against them.

LeGarrette Blount’s Week 13 Projected Stats: 180 rushing yards, 2 TD; 55 receiving yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:

• LeSean McCoy – If he only gets ten rushes this week, we will all light ourselves on fire.
• Chris Johnson – He’s back, and facing the Buffalo defense.  Big week again for CJ2K.
• Denver Broncos….duh.

Sit Em RB: Shonn Greene

I admit that this is a complete hunch.  I try to base nearly all of my predictions on statistical evidence or game play that I have actually seen…but I feel compelled to put Shonn Greene on the bench this week.

First of all, Washington has a pretty decent defense, especially on the ground (13th in yards per attempt). Secondly, I really think that they will try to make Mark Sanchez win two consecutive games.  I really don’t think anyone will be fooled by his 4-TD performance last week.

Washington will force Sanchez to do it again in order for NY to win.  He might.  But Shonn Greene will have another lackluster effort.

Shonn Greene Week 13 Projection: 45 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Thirteen:

• Rashard Mendenhall – Pitt will have to win this game through the air against the Bengals.
• Detroit Running Backs – On the road in New Orleans…if this game isn’t high scoring, that means that the Saints won big.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, recommending Chris Johnson two straight weeks. I can’t believe it’s true, but it is. He seems safe. (Of course, what I really can’t believe is true is how quickly confidence has been lost in CJ. But such is the case when you have a season like he’s had.)

Be careful sitting Mendenhall. Certainly he hasn’t lived to the billing of a top 5 back (like some idiot analysts predicted before the season started…analysts who will remain nameless to protect our pride here at MSF) but he always has the potential for 80-90 yards and a score. That’s tough to find with a high degree of confidence this late in the season.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: WRs

Start Em WR: Antonio Brown

He has been a little hit or miss lately, but I think that he will have a great game against Cincinnati this week.

Brown is an absolute terror from the slot, and Cincinnati will definitely be trying to limit Mendenhall on the ground and Mike Wallace from any big plays.

Watch for Brown to play extremely well.

Antonio Brown fantasy football Week 13 projection: 9 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:

• Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers. (Yes, I copied this from the last two weeks…I still feel the same way, even though Miles Austin could play this week.)
• Eric Decker – If Tebow throws for more yards, and I think he will, Decker will definitely be the number one recipient.
• Vincent Jackson – This game might as well be meaningless for San Diego…so they should win by 60.

Sit Em WR: Dwyane Bowe

The Bears defense is good…and Tyler Palko is almost as good as me.

No…I’m not good at all.

Dwyane Bowe fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Thirteen:

• Julio Jones – Bad day for Matt Ryan AND him…Roddy White is the only ATL non-RB I like this week.
• Brandon Lloyd – I don’t know if you have heard, but San Francisco’s defense is really good.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I love Antonio Brown and am always willing to find an excuse to sit Dwayne Bowe, so I concur with those picks.

As for Lloyd, I love the 49ers defense, but I also love #1 WRs who have the trust of their QB. St. Louis will have to throw the ball, which means plenty of targets for Lloyd. Careful sitting him. He’s not a top 10 WR this week, but I think he’s still top 20.

Any #1 receiver against Minnesota is a good play, so Decker gets the nod this week.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: TEs

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen

The Tampa defense will do their best to limit Steve Smith this week, and Olsen will reap the benefits.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 13 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em TE: Owen Daniels

A lot of times, young QB’s = good days for Tight Ends.  But boy, is TJ Yates low on the totem pole.  Sure, he may not be Jake Delhomme, but…oh wait.

That’s right.  Jake Delhomme.

I will stop talking right now.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 13 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

One could also make the case that the young QB (or the old one, if Delhomme sees any action) will rely on his tight end more. Still, I wouldn’t trust any Houston pass catchers this week, and that includes Andre Johnson.

I continue to like Vernon Davis down the stretch, so consider him a top-10 option. Brent Celek is also a guy who is playing well and warrants consideration.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: D/ST

Start Em D/ST: Denver Broncos

Who would have thought that by Week 13 Tim Tebow would be a must-start and the Broncos’ defense would also be a must-start? Well, it’s happened. And with Denver’s relentless pass rush and solid secondary facing rookie Christian Ponder with perhaps no Adrian Peterson, the Broncos are a good choice yet again.

Denver Broncos fantasy football Week 13 projection: 14 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 2 turnovers

Other start ‘em D/ST units:

• The Patriots’ D is facing Indy. Start ‘em!
• Atlanta’s defense is a sneaky start this week. Their strength is stopping the run, which is what Houston does well. Surely they’ll be able to contain T.J. Yates. If you think Atlanta can hold Foster and Tate down, they’re worthy of starting.

Sit Em S/ST: Green Bay Packers and New York Giants

The Packers’ D isn’t a terrible option because they do force turnovers, but I expect this game to be high scoring with both quarterbacks putting up very good numbers. There just isn’t a lot of upside here on either side.

Packers and Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: Lots of points, lots of yards, a few turnovers for the Packers

Other sit ‘em D/ST units:

• Jacksonville’s season is over, their coach just got fired, and the Chargers come in trying to salvage some pride. I think they do, and put up a lot of primetime points on the Jags in the process.
• I was high on Seattle’s defense last week, then they gave up 20+ points at home to Washington. Philly and all of its weapons comes a calling this week. No thanks.

**********

Good luck in Week 13 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.

And remember: Go here and leave a comment! By doing so, you’ll be entered to win tickets to the Big Ten Championship game! (And enter quickly. We have to choose a winner tomorrow early afternoon.)

First, thank you to everyone who understood my main point: that it’s simply too early to say whether or not Timmy will be good or bad yet.  In no way was I trying to say that Tebow will be better than Elway, Marino, and Manning; my point was how do we REALLY know after only five starts?

Second, while Tebow’s struggles have been magnified because Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder have looked so good thus far as rookies.   I think we can all agree that all three of those guys have MUCH better weapons around them than anything the Broncos have this season.

• Cam Newton has FOUR offensive weapons that are better than anyone on the Broncos: Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Greg Olsen.
• Andy Dalton has three: AJ Green, Cedric Benson, and a fantastic defense (seriously…Dalton threw for 160 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs this week…and his team won by TWENTY-TWO!!!! The only way Tebow and the Broncos are doing that anytime soon is if they play Vanderbilt).
• As for the Vikings, Christian Ponder has the best non-QB offensive player in the game on his team (Adrian Peterson) as well as a receiver (Percy Harvin) who is better than anyone in Denver now that Brandon Lloyd is gone.

Once you factor in the defenses (Denver’s is second to last in the league when it comes to scoring defense and worse than Cincinnati, Carolina, and Minnesota in every single category), it shouldn’t surprise anybody that both Tebow and Orton have struggled in 2011 so far with the Broncos.

I guess what’s so troubling to me is the unforgiving stance everyone is taking with Tebow.  Look at the following two stat lines and tell me which QB you would rather have.

• QB #1 – 57 of 118 for 891 yards.  48% completion. 7.55  yards per attempt. 7 TDs, 3 INTs.
• QB #2 – 64 for 137 for 638 yards.  47% completion. 4.65 yards per attempt. 4 TDs, 2 INTs.

Though neither QB is all that desirable, anyone in his or her right mind would take QB #1, who has thrown for more yards, a slightly higher completion rate, and scored more TDs as well.  This is all before taking into account the fact that QB #1 outrushed QB #2 by a margin of 302 to 43 in those games as well.

In this example I’m comparing Tim Tebow to Blaine Gabbert – a guy who was drafted higher than Tebow and who has, so far, gotten through the media scope almost completely unscathed.  In fact, articles have been written explaining why he deserves a free pass for his entire first year.

Once again, I don’t necessarily think Tebow WILL make it as an NFL QB…but shouldn’t we at least make him earn our judgments either way?  Let’s extend to him the same long rookie leash that we give everybody else.

Onto this week’s start em, sit em picks!

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Advice for Week 9

Last Week’s Picks: 21 for 35 (60 %)

Note: last week’s top-line picks were made by Jerod

• Hits: Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Montario Hardesty, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, DeMarco Murray, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Steve Breaston, Eric Decker, Demariyus Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Brent Celek, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels
• Misses: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Johnson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Torain, Bernard Scott, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Scott Chandler.

As a quick reminder, the following teams have a bye during week 9:

• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Carolina
• Jacksonville

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Quarterbacks

Start Em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

Ryan is currently ranked as the 14th overall fantasy QB, meaning in most leagues he should be a backup.  Fortunately for Matty Ice owners, the Falcons are traveling to Indy this week, where they will face one of the worst pass defenses in history.

Start Matt Ryan with no regrets in week 9.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

Less Obvious Start Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Oakland)

Don’t laugh.

The Raiders have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league this year and have gotten into several shootouts with teams already.  I understand the lack of weapons in the Denver passing game may scare you, but Tebow performed pretty well against Oakland last year (150 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 2 TDs).

If you have a top 8 QB, you shouldn’t be starting Tebow, but if Matt Stafford or Cam Newton is your starter and thus is on a bye, don’t sweat starting Timmy in week 9.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 9 projection: 140 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, 2 total TDs (and probably two total turnovers also)

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Tony Romo – This week, the Romo Coaster goes back up against the Seattle Seahawks…before throwing his fans and owners off a cliff in week ten against the Bills.
• Philip Rivers – The Chargers will probably be playing from behind, and the Packers’ secondary has been very average so far.

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Pittsburgh)

Don’t be fooled into thinking that since he lit up the Steelers in week one, he will do it again.  He won’t.

I said it a few weeks ago, but I’ll say it again. If you didn’t think Dick LeBeau was a genius before this year, just consider that for over a decade the Steelers have been impossible to run against yet in 2012, as soon as the NFL became a full-fledged passing league, he transformed the Steelers’ defense into the league’s #1 ranked passing defense, allowing opponents a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt.  Unbelievable.

Stay away from Flacco this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 9 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick – Playing the Jets who are coming off a bye…yikes.
• Ben Roethlisberger – I think this week’s Steelers/Ravens game will be a true throwback affair.

Jerod’s thoughts

I love the Ryan pick, and I think he is a guy who owners need to keep an eye on as we move into the second half of the season. He hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback so far this year, but with a lot of dome games and some favorable matchups coming up, he could be a top-10 QB from here on out, which is all that matters.

As for Tebow, he certainly has more potential value this week than he did last week against the Suh and the Lions, but I think there is a lot of risk there. I want to see him play a decent game from start to finish before I trust my one QB slot to him. What if he’s awful and gets pulled at halftime? Without the backing of his own coaching staff, and how poor he’s looked, I can’t justify starting him unless I’m desperate.

And yes, sit Flacco. He couldn’t get a pass in the end zone last week versus Arizona, and now has zero TD passes in three of his last four games (and in the other game he had just one).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Running Backs

Start Em RB: Beanie Wells, Arizona (v St. Louis)

While I don’t necessarily love Beanie Wells’ prospects for the rest of the season due to his lingering injury issues, I really like him this week against the Rams.  St. Louis has proven to be vulnerable on the ground this season, and Beanie is coming off of a fantastic game against a very good defense in Baltimore.

Despite his lingering knee issues, look for Beanie to have one or two more good efforts before he tails off to end the year.

Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 9 projection: 95 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Michael Turner – Against the Colts…okay this one is too obvious, so let’s just ignore it and move on.
• LeGarrette Blount – At this point, it’s still a little early to completely trust Blount, but I really like the Bucs’ running game this week against a suddenly reeling Saints team.  New Orleans just got lit up on the ground against St. Louis, and the Bucs will be looking to keep Dreww Brees off the field as much as possible.  Give Blount your complete trust this week.

Sit Em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

I actually like Fred Jackson, who has yet to have a really bad day, a lot for the rest of the season.  However, now is as good a time as ever for that first clunker of 2011 with the Jets coming to town fresh off a bye.

Rex Ryan’s team hasn’t been as consistently good against the run this year as in years’ past, but it was a point of emphasis for their defense all week.  Look for Jackson and the entire Bills offense to have a tough time on Sunday.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Redskins’ Running Backs – I think Ryan Torain and Roy Helu can be good backs, but I also think that with John Beck starting the 49ers defense, which is already good against the run, will be able to send an 8th man into the box. This is not good news for the Redskins in real life or fantasy.
• Ryan Mathews – Just trust me that when the Chargers are down 21-0 with 12 minutes left in the second quarter, or Mathews is dinged up again, you will wish you had left him on the bench.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Beanie Wells is a very inviting start this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see him finish as a top 5 overall player this week. Except that I would…because I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratched from the starting lineup at the last second or removed midway through the game because of an injury. Such is life with Beanie Wells. This is a week to definitely have him in your lineup, but just remember to take nothing for granted on Sunday morning.

And while I agree with your basic premise that Fred Jackson could struggle this week, he’s not sitting on any of my rosters. The Jets have not been their previously dominant selves against the run, and Jackson has earned every-week start status for his ability to run and be a receiver out of the backfield. How many true lead backs are there anymore in the NFL? FJax is one. You better have two or three elite 2011 options if you’re even thinking about sitting him.

And I agree on Blount. A great option for this week, and a solid buy low candidate if you’re looking to make a trade.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Wide Receivers

Start Em WR: Julio Jones, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

At this point, you all know how I feel about Julio Jones.  I think he’s overrated.  I think AJ Green is 4x better than him.  I think Jones drops a lot of balls, and I think he’s a poor route-runner.

And that’s all well and good, but he’s still super-duper talented athletically…and he’s playing the Colts this week.  I expect at least two home run plays from him in yet another Colts blowout loss.

Julio Jones fantasy football Week 9 projection: 125 yards receiving, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine: 

• Plaxico Burress – He’s already a great target in the end zone, and I have a sneaky suspicion that he and the Sanchize got even MORE acquainted over their bye week.  Even if they didn’t, they are still playing the porous Buffalo passing defense.  Good day for Plaxico.
• Antonio Brown – Ed Reed will be shading towards Mike Wallace all game, and while that won’t completely shut down the speedster, I think that Antonio Brown will rise to the occasion like he did last week and catch a lot of balls underneath, as well as pick up another TD or two.

Sit Em WR: Stevie Johnson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

Revis Island.  Off a bye week.  Oh boy.

Stevie Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Nate Washington – Cincinnati has been surprisingly great against the pass, ranking fifth overall in passing defense.  Look for Washington to be bottled up, especially since the Titans lack a really reliable #2 option now that Chris Johnson has passed away.
• Patriots’ Wide Receivers not named Wes Welker – Uh oh…the Steelers just showed us that the Pats have absolutely no deep threat.  Needless to say, it’s not Welker’s, Hernandez’s, or Gronkowski’s fault.

Jerod’s thoughts:

At this point in the presentation, I can deduce two things: you think Atlanta is going to roughshod over Indianapolis (safe prediction) and you trust Rex Ryan and the Jets’ D to shut down a Buffalo offense that has been pretty good this year (a riskier but not outrageous bet). With that said, I agree with you on sitting Stevie Johnson, assuming someone has strong depth at WR. Stevie is not devoid of value, because he has a nose for the end zone, but Darrelle Revis has certainly locked down better receivers.

I also like Julio Jones this week. I don’t love him, because I think the Falcons have moved away from trying to force-feed him the ball. His targets will now come more in the flow of the offense, and if the Colts jump out to a big lead over Indy – a likely occurrence with Atlanta’s ability to run the ball – then they won’t need to take as many shots down the field. I think it’s a good matchup for Jones, but without the upside you seem to think.

One guy not mentioned that people need to keep their eye on is Michael Crabtree. He is healthy, and having Braylon Edwards opposite him will “take the top off the defense” as they say. Alex Smith looks at Crabtree first in the passing game. In PPR leagues especially, he will be golden for the rest of the year.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v New England)

After seeing Heath Miller step out of the time machine and look like a young Tony Gonzalez on Sunday, I’m willing to say that the Patriots have a VERY difficult time stopping opposing tight ends.  I fully expect Eli Manning to take note of that, and use Jake Ballard a lot, especially early on in Week 9.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Dustin Keller – He’s having a solid year so far, and Sanchez loves him nearly as much as Plax in the red zone.
• Vernon Davis – He will have a nice bounce back week against a Washington defense that is actually pretty good.  Look for Alex Smith to check down quite a bit to the big tight end.

Sit Em TE: Scott Chandler, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

There’s no way he scores any more TDs this week against the Jets.

Scott Chandler fantasy football Week 9 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’m now officially beginning to wonder if Rex Ryan wrote this article. You chose a Bill as your sit em RB, WR, and TE, and you mentioned the Bearded Wonder in your “other” section under the QBs. Jon, bro, we get it: you think the Jets’ defense is going to have a strong effort coming off the bye.

I love Ballard. Eli Manning always seems to turn his tight end into a fantasy relevant commodity as the season goes along. Same thing is happening here.

As for Chandler, he made me eat my disparaging words last week, but I agree with you that starting him would make me very nervous this week. He has value, because he’s always a TD threat, but it’s all or nothing with him. Just know that when you start him (and know that none of us can predict with any certainty when he will or will not find openings in the end zone).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: D/ST

[Editor's Note: because we would not allow Jon to pick the Jets’ defense as his “start ‘em” defense/special teams unit, he decided to boycott this last section of the post. What a baby. So these picks are made by Jerod.]

Start ‘em D/ST: Oakland Raiders (v Denver)

Every year I try to target specific offenses that are so inept as to make even mediocre defenses valuable for one week. The Broncos made the Dolphins’ rag-tag defense very valuable two weeks ago, and an already strong fantasy defense in Detroit become out-of-this-world valuable last week.

This week, the Broncos and struggling QB Tim Tebow face Oakland. The Raiders are physical up front, which is the same formula the Lions used to pressure Tebow last week. Until the young QB proves he can avoid sacks and fumbles, I’m starting any D going up against the Broncos.

Also working in your favor if you nab the Raiders: Jacoby Ford. He’s a weekly threat to get you a bonus TD.

Oakland D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 17 or fewer points allowed, 4+ sacks, 2+ turnovers, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I like both the Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses this week. I agree with Jon that this game will be an old school battle. (If by some chance you have to pick one or the other, go with Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco is playing far worse than Big Ben right now).
• I’d want to stay away from Washington offensive players this week against San Francisco, but the Washington defense isn’t a bad option. The 49ers have to travel cross-country and play an early game, which is rarely a good recipe for success for West Coast teams. And with San Fran already being more of a running team than an explosive passing team, it limits their potential to put up big scoring numbers, especially against a solid D like Washington’s.

Sit ‘em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v Dallas Cowboys)

I don’t know how many people have been employing the Seahawks D, but there was a groundswell of support for them a few weeks back because they are decent against the run. While that remains true, and the Seahawks have some decent matchups moving forward, I don’t like their chances against an angry, embarrassed Cowboys team that gets to lick its wounds at home this week.

The Cowboys’ offense isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought it would be coming into the season, but it’s much better than it showed last week. The poor Seahawks will feel the brunt of it this weekend.

Seattle D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 27+ points, 2 or fewer sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I wouldn’t want either the Giants or Patriots defenses going this week. That game just smells like one that gets into the 30s on both sides.
• The Jets’ D is not as obvious a start candidate as Jon would have you think it is, and I do not say this just to needle Jon. While I like the Jets’ D is general, they simply have not been a dominant unit this year, and the Bills have been a pretty consistent offense. I would not at all be surprised to see this game played in the 20s, which means the Jets would need a defensive TD or a bunch of sacks/turnovers to turn in a great day. It’s possible, but I don’t consider it likely.

 ###

Best of luck to everyone in Week 9.

Make sure you also take a look at Andy’s waiver wire wire pickups for Week 9, and then load up the comment queue with questions. We’ll be around all week to answer them, and of course we’ll be here on Sunday morning to help out with those difficult last minute start/sit questions.

This is a question I’ve been thinking about a lot over the past several weeks, as I continue to be more and more impressed (and surprised) by how well Cam Newton is transitioning to the NFL in his first season.

Cam Newton’s Impressive Start

Frankly, I did not think that Newton was going to become a good NFL quarterback. I certainly did not think it would happen this quickly. But this is why I blog about the NFL in my underpants while typing with Cheetos-stained fingers and other people get paid to scout and draft players*.

* – Of course, plenty of people who do not blog about the NFL in their underpants with Cheetos-stained fingers, and who get paid to scout players, agreed with my assessment about Newton. This just goes to show how inexact a science scouting quarterbacks can be. Except for this guy.

As good as he’s been,nobody is ready to put Cam Newton into Canton yet. It takes more than 8 statistically strong games to classify someone as an elite QB, especially when six of those games have resulted in losses.

In fact, we’re going to learn a lot about Newton over these final 8 weeks while the Panthers essentially “play out the string” and Newton is forced to endure the first losing season of his football career. Leading your team in spite of adversity is one of the most important attributes for a successful NFL QB. We’ll see if Newton has that ability. So far he’s given us no reason to doubt him.

Certainly there is no reason to doubt Newton’s physical skills. He is passing for nearly 300 yards per game (299.1), completing 60.6% of his passes, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. Those are solid numbers for any quarterback, let alone a rookie, and they are made even more impressive when his superlative running stats added to the discussion: 5.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns.

And the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Whereas Tim Tebow’s numbers are not nearly as poor as you might think, and in fact compare favorably to several Hall of Famers’ stats through five starts, Tebow hasn’t looked at all like an NFL QB. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has. He’s played with poise throughout games, including late, and he’s shown that he can make all the throws. He also has shown the ability to hit guys for big plays down the field when they are a open, which is an absolute requisite skill for a quarterback in the NFL. When a QB has a chance to make a big play, it must be made more often than not; simple as that.

Newton has been far from perfect, and he has plenty of growing to do, but I don’t think anyone is anything but highly impressed with his first eight games as an NFL quarterback. Many may not have been as low on Newton as I was before the season, but I doubt anyone other than Cam himself expected this kind of success out of the gate.

And all of this leads me back to my original question: how many NFL teams would trade their QB right now for Cam Newton?

Hypothetically Speaking…

For our purposes, assume that everything is how it is (team records, contracts, rosters, coaches, etc) and that every NFL team is given the option of swapping its current QB right now for Newton. I admit that is 100% ridiculous because Carolina wouldn’t trade Cam Newton for anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers…), but humor me for the sake of discussion. The result of this hypothetical transaction would be Newton quarterbacking the team for the rest of this season, in place of their current QB, and then being their QB through the rest of his rookie contract.

There are a number of easy answers on both sides, teams that wouldn’t even think twice about saying yes or no:

• Automatic No: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants
• Automatic Yes: Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, Seattle

I shouldn’t have to defend any of the automatic “no” choices. Each team has a Super Bowl-winning QB, and each team feels it is a contender this season. As tantalized as they may be by Newton, none of these teams would trade their guy for him. (And anyone who doesn’t think Eli deserves this kind of respect is, in my opinion, crazy.)

As for the automatic yeses, I can maybe-possibly see some saying that Tennessee and Jacksonville have “QBs of the future” in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, but both teams would have rather had Newton in the draft and surely would rather have him now. These and the others are absolute no-brainers to me.

Now let’s go one-by-one through the remaining teams and figure out a) if they would trade their current QB for Cam Newton, and b) if they should trade their current QB for Cam Newton, because I bet the answers won’t often be the same. Of course these are all just my opinions based on how I see each team’s situation.

As always, I encourage disagreement, discussion, and even constructive criticism. That’s what comment sections are for. And there is a poll at the end of this post so we can crowdsource some kind of consensus for the non-obvious teams.

Here goes…

Buffalo Bills – Ryan Fitzpatrick (current record: 5-2)

The Bills just locked Fitzpatrick up to a long-term contract that will pay him $24 million and keep him as the signal caller in Buffalo for at least the next 2-3 years. Considering the deal Arizona signed Kevin Kolb to in the offseason, Fitzpatrick certainly deserves this contract. He has passed for 1,739 yards this year and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and he’s led Buffalo to first place in the AFC East. There is perhaps concern that Fitzpatrick is playing over his head, as his current completion rate is 8 points higher than his career average, and his QB rating is 20 points higher than his career average, but Fitzpatrick also could just be showing the normal progression that a good young NFL quarterback will make.

Personally, I’m not sold on Fitzpatrick as a top-tier option for the future who can compete against the likes of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning If He Plays Again (his new name). Fitzpatrick is a solid guy who can transition you from one franchise QB to the next, but I don’t think he is the type of QB who will make you a winner year in, year out. Cam Newton may be. But with the Bills sitting in first place in the AFC East, and the good feelings of the contract still fresh, I don’t think they’d make the move even though I would.

• Would they? No
• Should they? Yes

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (4-3)

This is one of the more intriguing ones.

Even though Mark Sanchez has really done nothing to show that he can or will become a top-tier NFL quarterback (54.7% completions, 41 TD:39 INT for career), he has ridden the coattails of a great defense and an above-average running game to two straight AFC title games. His coach continues to profess confidence in him, and I think would rather win with “his guy” Sanchez, or die trying, than admit he was wrong and bring in another QB…at least right now.

Simply put: I think most objective people would make this trade in a heartbeat, and maybe the Jets front office would force it to happen; but I think Rex Ryan is so dug in with Sanchez that he’d do everything to veto it and give Sanchez another chance to finish the job this year. (I’ll be curious to hear from Jets fans on this one…)

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (5-2)

Here is another one where short-term success might lead to myopic thinking.

The Bengals are, shockingly, sitting at 5-2 with their red-haired rookie QB and glue-handed rookie WR leading the offense. The Bengals’ defense has been great so far this season, but Dalton has been far from just a caretaker. He’s thrown 9 TDs and is completing 62.4% of his passes. Dalton’s sprint out of the gate has been nothing short of shocking.

But here is where I throw a little cold water on the fire: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Buffalo is good, the other four teams are not. So do we really know how good Dalton is? I don’t think so. In his one start against a god defense this year, Week 3 versus San Francisco, he was putrid. We’ll know a lot more about Dalton after his four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Like many teams, Cincy would have jumped at the chance to draft Cam Newton, but their first place positioning in the AFC North, and the fans’ growing attachment to Dalton, plus their history of personnel ineptitude, lead me to believe that the Bengals would forgo the chance to get Newton to hang onto Dalton. It would be a mistake.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

As you can see, I have little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, or Andy Dalton, at least in relation to Cam Newton; but I also have little faith that any of their teams would trade them for Newton.

This next one though might be the most intriguing of all.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco (5-2)

Ever since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB in Baltimore, the Ravens’ offense has been as up-and-down as any offense in the NFL. Flacco has seven games in which he has tossed three or more touchdowns. He also 24 games in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns, including four playoff games (though he often gets credited with being a “winning” playoff QB). All the while, Baltimore has had a good-to-great defense and a solid running game.

Now in his fourth year, and with just one TD pass in his last four games, can the Ravens and team leaders like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs really still have that much confidence in Flacco? I know they call him “Joe Cool” because he never seems rattled, but that’s mostly because he barely looks like he has a pulse at times. Cam Newton also never gets rattled, but he plays with an energy and smile that are both infectious. Yes, I’m one of those who believes that how you “look” and what your body language says means something when you’re the QB. Whatever Flacco may have over Newton in experience is negated by his comatose on-field appearance.

All of this is to say that I would, in a heartbeat, trade Flacco for Newton if I was the Ravens. After the last four games, and with Lewis especially running out of time, I think the Ravens would too.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning (0-8)

Of course the Colts would trade Curtis Painter straight up for Cam Newton. Duh. But what’s the fun in that? The real juicy question would be, right this very moment, would the Colts trade Peyton Manning If He Plays Again for Newton? And the answer is that none of us have enough information to answer. It would all come down to Manning’s health.

If there is even an iota of a chance that he can come back and play at 80-85% of his previous effectiveness, Indy would hold onto Peyton. But if they doubt he ever plays again, even if he wants to and is working like the dickens to get back, wouldn’t Indy have to trade for Cam as opposed to waiting around to see if they suck enough for Luck?

Ultimately, I think the uncertainty would tip the scales in favor of keeping Manning, and that’s the right call. It feels like there is something unfinished about Manning’s tenure in Indianapolis, and though I logically know that neck injuries can end careers, I’d still be shocked if Manning never suits up for Indy again. So I can’t see Indy pulling the trigger on this move. And with the team possibly positioning itself to draft Andrew Luck anyway, there would be no reason to trade Manning before they know as much as possible about his potential comeback.

I anticipate a lot of debate and perhaps disagreement about this one. In fact, I’m already starting to disagree with myself. I better just move along.

• Would they? No
• Should they? No

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub (5-3)

I don’t think for a second that Houston would even entertain this thought, not with Schaub and Kubiak finally on the cusp of making it to the playoffs. As good/bland as Schaub may be, good/bland isn’t necessarily an awful thing for a QB to be on a team that has a great running game, an elite WR, and a strong defense. This is the first time Houston has had all three working in the same season, and Schaub is the right guy to lead them. I wouldn’t mess with what they have going right now, not with the AFC South up for grabs this year and into the future, and I don’t think they would either.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers (4-2)

Coming into this season it would have seemed laughable for Philip Rivers to be on this list, and perhaps it still is, but Rivers has thrown 7 TDs against 9 INTs this year, and it’s not like he has a Super Bowl title or many playoff skins on the wall to grant him immunity from at least entering this discussion.

Still, I doubt there is a chance the Chargers would seriously consider it. Rivers has a strong regular season track record over multiple seasons, and he has undoubtedly been hurt by Antonio Gates’ absence early this season. Just like I don’t think teams should overreact to a fast early season start and overrate their players (as may be the case right now in Buffalo and Cincy), I don’t think teams should underrate their players because of a slow start.

The irony of ironies, of course, is that the slow-starting Chargers are off to a fast 4-2 start during the season when their QB has more or less stunk. Go figure.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Vick (3-4)

Another one that is fascinating to think about. The Eagles went all-in on this season and are just now starting to dig themselves out of their early season hole. As tempting as it might be to get Newton, who is similar to Vick but with 6-7 years less mileage, I can’t see Andy Reid doing it. Vick is the better choice for this season and the Eagles are in it to win it in 2011.

That said, I think Newton is showing the ability to do a lot of the things Vick couldn’t or wouldn’t do early in his career. I’d love to see what Reid could do with a guy like Newton, who is not quite the runner Vick is but who is light years ahead of where Vick was as a passer in his rookie season. Just because the Eagles picked this year as the year to go for it all doesn’t mean they should necessarily mortgage a chance to improve themselves for the long term. And is Vick really playing so well that Newton couldn’t come close to replicating him, thus keeping the Eagles in contention this year? I don’t think so.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo (3-4)

Whatever my answer is here it is sure to stir up some controversy, just because that’s how any discussions about Tony Romo are sure to go.

I’ve always been a Romo supporter, thinking that his critics didn’t give him enough credit for being one of the top 10 QBs in the league. While I still think Romo is an above average QB, I’m not as sold on him anymore as a potential champion. Sure, with the right supporting cast he could win a Super Bowl – hell, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl – but I’m no longer sure that Romo can lead a franchise to a Super Bowl, and there is a big difference.

I don’t know if Cam Newton can lead a team to a Super Bowl either. It’s way to early to even consider such questions. But we did just see him lead his college team to a championship in the toughest conference in all of college football, all while rumors and innuendo and investigations were swirling around him constantly. Newton’s got it, whatever it is, and Tony Romo hasn’t proven that he does. So wouldn’t it be worth taking a chance on Newton if you’re convinced Romo probably can’t be the guy to lead a champion?

The answer to this one comes down to your belief in Romo. I no longer believe. Give me Cam. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Jerry Jones probably still believes in Romo. At the least, he believes in his own ego and won’t want to admit Romo can’t get it done. Hell, he wouldn’t even trade Martellus Bennett to Cincinnati for a second round pick. Why would he trade Romo for Newton?

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford (6-2)

I considered putting the Lions in the automatic no category, but Mr. Glass didn’t deserve to be considered on par with Brady, Ben, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees. He hasn’t played a full season yet, and he hasn’t been so transcendent when he has played that Detroit wouldn’t at least consider the move.

I don’t think they’d do it though. Even with Stafford making way more money than Cam, he is the guy they have built around, and I don’t think the Lions would shake up the franchise that drastically when it is finally experiencing a true ascension.

As for me, I’d do it. Cam is showing that he knows how to utilize a top-fight receiver, and he he does not carry the same injury-prone reputation of Stafford. Add in the cost savings of Newton’s contract over Stafford’s, and I’d much rather have the rookie over the third year guy, even for the rest of the this year and certainly beyond.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler (4-3)

See the entry above about Joe Flacco, replace his name with “Jay Cutler” and replace “Ray Lewis” with “Brian Urlacher”. There is no reason for me to repeat myself.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder (2-6)

Ponder and the Vikings beat Newton and the Panthers this past weekend, with Ponder having his second straight impressive start. And while Vikings fans are slowly talking themselves into the Ponder Era, the reality is that the Vikings would have traded St. Paul to draft Newton last year, and as polished as Ponder seems to be both on and off the field, he doesn’t have 1/10th the physical potential of Newton. Minnesota probably should have been an automatic.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman (4-3)

Freeman was the up-and-coming superstar young quarterback coming into this season, but he has fallen back down to earth a bit through the first half of the year. His interceptions are way up, and he just doesn’t seem as comfortable or confident as he was last year, when he and rookie Mike Williams were as explosive as just about any QB-WR combo in the league.

Still, despite his struggles, I think Tampa Bay is committed to Freeman as the future of its franchise, and I know that Raheem Morris (who coached Freeman in college) believes in his young QB. Freeman is another guy who surprised me by having a smoother transition to the NFL than I thought he would. He has all of the physical tools to bust out of his current slump and still become a top-10 QB. I’d hold tight, and I think Tampa Bay would too.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan (4-3)

Like the Lions with Stafford, I don’t think Atlanta would consider making this move for more than a few seconds, but Ryan is not quite the slam dunk franchise QB that some make him out to be. He has not risen to the occasion in the Falcons’ biggest games, and he does not possess the accuracy that the top flight quarterbacks all have. He does “look” the part, he’s tough, and he’s a strong leader, which is why Atlanta is surely satisfied with Ryan and not looking to move on, nor should they be. As many questions as I have about Ryan, he’s shown enough to make me think that, unlike Romo, he could lead a franchise to a Super Bowl. With the investment Atlanta has already made in him, they’d hold tight, and I agree.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith (6-1)

Another very, very intriguing one simply because of how this season has started. This one falls right in line with the Bills and Bengals, two teams doing far better than anyone expected thanks to solid play from their QB. Smith has not been asked to win games for the 49ers this year, he’s just been asked not to lose them with a great defense and solid running game by his side. And he hasn’t.

Still, this is Alex Smith. He has not done anything spectacular this year that Cam Newton couldn’t have done, even as a rookie. The issue would be whether Newton would have made mistakes that Smith wouldn’t have made to sabotage the 49ers in a game or two. That I don’t know. But I do know that, again, this is Alex Smith. As solid as he’s been, and as much of an impact as Jim Harbaugh has made on him, the difference in talent and swagger between he and Newton is obvious.

To me, the 6-1 record of the 49ers, and their incredible four game lead this early in this season, would make the team more likely to do such a deal. They’d have some cushion if Newton struggled to adapt to his new surroundings; though one thing we have learned about Newton is that he rarely if ever struggles to adapt. It may be his greatest strength of all.

• Would they? Yes (Well…maybe…probably)
  
• Should they? Yes
  

St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford (1-6)

Following right along with my thoughts on Stafford and Ryan, I don’t think there is much of a chance that St. Louis would pull the plug on the Bradford Era already, especially considering Bradford was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year last year and just needs protection and a few good targets to showcase his pinpoint accuracy. But like Stafford and Ryan, Bradford hasn’t earned Automatic No status. So the Rams might think about it, especially considering the money, but I think they’d stick with Bradford, and I wouldn’t blame them. I still think he’s going to be a star.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Kolb (1-6)

I thought long and hard about putting Arizona in Automatic Yes territory, but would they really cut the cord on Kolb so soon after giving him a long-term deal? Of course they should, but we know how egos sometimes get in the way of sound decision making, so I just wonder if they would.

Ultimately, I think so. Larry Fitzgerald has to be watching Cam Newton resuscitate Steve Smith’s career and get horribly jealous. That’s what Kolb was supposed to do for Fitzy, but obviously he hasn’t come close. Not that Arizona should be surprised by this mind you, because Kolb is basically just doing exactly what he did in Philadelphia. What, should he have turned down the money?

I don’t think it would take Arizona very long to say yes here.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

###

So, how many teams would trade their current QB for Cam Newton right now?

Okay, let’s tally up the “would they” column, as decided by me:

• No: Buffalo, New York Jets, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Combined with the automatics from up above, that means I think 14 teams would trade their current starting quarterback straight up for Cam Newton. That seems very low to me; and of course it would seem low to me because I personally project a lot of disconnect between what teams should do and what they would do were this a real rather than hypothetical situation.

If I tally it up in terms of my “should they” answers, it would look much different:

• No: Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Buffalo, New York Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Based on what I would do in each team’s case, I think 20 teams’ QB situations would be improved immediately with Cam Newton. Maybe for a few there would be a short-term step back, but it would be worth it for the projected long-term steps forward.

But what I am really interested in here is your opinion.

Below is a poll that lists all of the teams I think are not obvious. Vote for all of the ones who you think should (not necessarily would) trade their current QB straight up for Cam Newton in our hypothetical fantasy. Then take to the comment section to state your peace or to agree/disagree with any of my assessments.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I invite your thoughts below.

Staying on the topic of quarterbacks, this week we will see some newcomers who will be thrust into the starting role. Though you shouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Christian Ponder to make headlines in Minnesota, we’ve got other names to know for you in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Tim Tebow

As a real football player, there really is not a lot to like about Tebow; but this is the fantasy world.  Regardless of how many passing yards he throws for, his legs are your best asset.  Down on the goal line he is realistically a better option than any other Bronco running back, so if you are in a league with 10+ teams, don’t be afraid to start him.

Jay Cutler

The offensive line did OK against Minnesota last week and should do better when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay.  Look, Jay is just as skilled as any quarterback in the league when it comes to throwing the ball, but he needs time to do so.

Curtis Painter

Now, in a week where arguably 4 of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks are on a bye, the field is wide open for options of who will fill that spot on your roster.  The stock of Painter is only up for logistical reasons: going on the road and facing a New Orleans team who will most likely have the Colts down 14 or more at half will prompt Painter to take control and throw the ball a lot.

DeMarco Murray

Felix Jones is hurt, so it looks like Murray should get the start.  I’m getting the feeling that after a loss, bye week, and another loss, the Cowboys may want to get their running game going if they wish to be relevant in 2011.

Montario Hardesty

Young backs are another trend this week as Montario Hardesty looks like a valuable option.  Yes, the Seahawks are one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league, but someone has to take the carries with Peyton Hillis sitting out with that hamstring injury.  10 points in a standard scoring league seems reasonable.

Kevin Walter

While he does not command a double team quite like the injured Andre Johnson, Walter does get some respect from defenses.  Regardless, he will be targeted early and often whenever Houston does decide to throw the ball.

Doug Baldwin

There may be two 6’4” receivers in Seattle, but this little 5’10” guy is playing bigger than everyone else.  While the Browns do have the 4^th ranked pass defense in the league, Seattle is still going to put up some numbers at home.  Add to that the fact that top cornerback Joe Haden is likely to sit again with a knee injury, and Baldwin could be Cleveland’s toughest matchup.

Kevin Boss

His production has not been stellar thus far, but his role could be increased greatly very soon.  With Carson Palmer getting off the couch and onto the field, the best friends for a new and/or rusty quarterback like that is a running game (check) and a tight end to throw to.  Let’s see how this goes. (And surely Kyle Boller, who will likely start this week as Palmer gets acclimated, will look to his tight end too.)

San Diego D/ST

This matchup looks very good if you have this defense.  The Chargers are good against the run, something that the Jets feel they need to establish but haven’t so far this year.  Mark Sanchez has inconsistencies that fall into the lap of the defense if they are able to establish a decent pass rush.  Ignore the coast to coast travel and start San Diego. Go Chargers! Go!

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Matt Ryan

Sorry Matty Ice, but you just haven’t performed well against the defenses of the NFC North this year.  Is it a coincidence that the Bears and Packers were the only teams to hold him to under 10 fantasy points this year?  Maybe, but the Detroit defense as a whole will bring problems for the Falcons.  That pass rush is vicious. Nobody has been doing well against it and I just don’t see it starting now.

Joe Flacco

I love Joe Cool as much as anybody, but this week he falls victim of the circumstance.  The Jags couldn’t stop the Steelers’ running game last week, and in football if a team can’t stop the run, then the ball will just continue to be shoved down the throat of the defense, lowering Joe’s value this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Can you name a significant playmaker on the Jags’ offense besides this guy?  Seriously.  Obviously there is nobody else but MJD, and going against the best defense in the NFL, things are looking bad.  If there is anything positive about his numbers it is that he is averaging 95 yards a game, but if you are looking for a 15 point performance, that’s not happening, because he just doesn’t get into the end zone enough anymore.

Willis McGahee

Yes, he has been very impressive ever since he took over the starting duties in week 2, but with Tim Tebow on the field, his value drops as the Broncos get closer to the end zone.  This is a very unfortunate situation given the fact that he had been playing so well, but this league is a business and people want to see Tebow with the ball.  It’s just Tebow fever for Denver (and you can tell as I used his name more than Willis in his own paragraph).

Larry Fitzgerald

The Vikings held Larry to 6 points last week and you can expect a similar score this week against Pittsburgh.  Even though the schemes are different, the two defenses are structured closely in terms of talent and what they do.  The other problem facing Arizona as a whole is that it doesn’t look like they know what to do with some decent talent on that offense.

Brandon Lloyd

Not 100% sure why Denver pulled the trigger on this deal because it looked as if Lloyd and Decker could coexist.  Regardless, he is in St. Louis now, but don’t expect much from him fresh off of the trade.  He needs to learn some things about the offense and Sam Bradford is ailing as well. Lower the expectations if you can.

Dustin Keller

When you do the math, Keller seems like a good choice for a starting tight end, but not so fast my friend.  With the dysfunctional Jets offense, it’s hard to think that Keller will see any real involvement.  For New York this year it has been either ground and pound or airing it out with very little to the tight end.

Atlanta D/ST

I don’t like to harp on teams, but didn’t a lot of people pick this team to go to the Super Bowl?  Maybe it is their schedule that puts them up against team’s with a lot of fire power on offense or is it that they just aren’t that good?

With some many teams rich in fantasy talent (Patriots, Giants, Eagles, Bills, plus the 49ers and Bengals) observing their bye this week, it means that we all are having to dig deep into our benches and even onto the waiver wire just to field complete lineups. During such weeks is when start/sit advice is its most valuable, and as always we have you covered here at MSF.

First, check out the consensus top 10 start em and sit em picks below, delivered just a few minutes ago from our friends at PlayThisGuy.com. They compile start/sit picks from numerous proven, trusted sources across the web (including MSF) to come up with these picks.

Second, click over to Jon’s Week 7 Start em, Sit em column, where he breaks down every position in detail, telling you who to start, who to sit, and who will be the best and worst performer at each position, along with stat projections. Also see the Week 7 rankings and Andy’s waiver wire pickups column.

(Oh, and don’t forget to the enter this week’s fantasy college football freeroll tournament. It’s free to enter, but the prizes are real. You’d be a fool not to play.)

And now, without further ado, here are the consensus Week 7 Start/Sit picks from PlayThisGuy.com:

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start em, Sit em Advice

Consensus Top 10 Start/Sit Picks

The comment section is yours if you have any questions about your Week 7 roster. We’ll do our best to get every question answered by Sunday morning.

And now, for no good reason at all, here is a picture of consensus Start #4 Matt Cassel, apparently in a little bit of pain.

**********

Packers-Falcons Preview

Green Bay Packers

The Packers’ offense is one of the top in the NFL, which directly correlates to the success of many fantasy teams, including my own. Aaron Rodgers leads the league in QB rating, is second in touchdowns with 12, and has the highest completion percentage in the NFL at 73.1%.

The least amount of the points the Packers have scored in a game this year is 27, which came in their Week 3 win over the Bears.

The problem has to do with the defense. The Green Bay defense has allowed 23 or more points in three of the first four games of the season, and they have the 31st rated pass defense in the NFL. The offense has been able to bail out the lack of defense so far, but the Falcons are capable of putting up big numbers. The key will be the turnover battle.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are 2-2 in a very winnable division in the NFC South. They have already played on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, in a game which saw them beat the disappointing Eagles in a 35-31 game.

The Falcons have been a completely different team since their Week 1 loss to the Bears, in which the score was 30-12. They have the tenth ranked rush defense in the NFL, along with the eleventh ranked pass offense.

This game is much more important for Atlanta, as a loss would put them at 2-3. Their next four games are against the Panthers, Lions, Colts, and Saints. Three of those are tough games, with the exception of the game against the Colts. However, with the way Indy played against the Bucs on Monday night, they might not be as bad as previously thought.

Packers-Falcons Prediction

The Packers are the best team in football right now, and it is tough to pick against them until they prove they are mortal and lose a game. That is why I see them going into Atlanta and beating the Falcons. Matt Ryan has done nothing too special this season, and his top receiver, Roddy White, has had a problem with dropped passes all year.

The Falcons have a great rush defense, which means the Packers will be passing often, and with success.

Prediction: Packers 31 | Falcons 17

• Packers-Falcons Spread Pick: Packers -5.5
• Packers-Falcons Over-Under Pick: Under

**********

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Game Info

• Packers-Falcons Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 8:20 ET on NBC
• Packers-Falcons Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Packers-Falcons Point Spread: Packers -5.5
• Packers-Falcons Over-Under Odds: 54

Andre Johnson is gone.  Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.  Miles Austin is on the mend.  Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?

With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost.  If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings.  But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug.  Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.

So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.

As always, let’s briefly recap last week’s picks just to see how we did.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Four Recap

Overall – 29 for 47 (62%)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Megatron and Rob Gronkowski
• Misses: Matt Stafford and Adrian Peterson

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Greg Olsen
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress (Thanks a lot…Sanchez…)

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 12 for 16

• Hits: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, and Tony Gonzalez
• Misses: Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, and Jermichael Finley.

Worst Player Predictions: 0 for 4

• Misses: Kyle Orton, Texans’ Running Backs (HUGE MISS…sorry guys), Sidney Rice, and Owen Daniels

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 4

• Hits: Joe Flacco
• Misses: Ray Rice (Never will I ever doubt him again), Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 12 for 15

• Hits: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Cowboys’ Running Backs, Chad Ochocinco, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow
• Misses: Denver Running Backs, Steve Smith 1.0, and Benjamin Watson

And now onto the Week 5 start em, sit em picks.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em Projections

One brief change this week:

As you know, Jerod did the Start/Sit column the last two years before handing the keys to me this year. He still edits the column before it’s posted though, and helps out in the comment section answering questions throughout the week. And while we agree on the majority of these picks, there are some spots where we differ, and we think it will add value to the column to have him chime in with alternate viewpoints when he has them.

So at the end of each position section, you’ll see a blockquote with Jerod’s quick-hit thoughts on the picks, especially any he strongly disagrees with. As always when it comes to our fantasy advice, MSF is an ego-free zone where helping readers put the best possible lineup together is the goal. This is just one more way we can work together to do that.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 5:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• St. Louis
• Miami
• Washington
• Baltimore

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Michael Vick

Vick started to look like the Vick of last season on Sunday, and his team still got the loss.  Buffalo’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as they have been torched by several teams already this season.  Look for Vick to try and put the Eagles on his shoulders as they travel to Buffalo trying to save their season.  The Eagles may not win, but Vick should have a MONSTER day.

Michael Vick Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 380 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1INT; 85 rushing yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Philip Rivers

I almost feel like this is cheating, but Rivers is only ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks.  Look for him to start moving up the charts this week in Denver.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 350 yards, 3 TDs

Other Guys I Like:

• Eli Manning – At home against Seattle.
• Drew Brees – On the road in Carolina.
• Curtis Painter – Played well in his debut, and will be doing his best against the Chiefs to make sure the Colts don’t finish with the worst record in the league.
• Mark Sanchez – The Pats’ defense is beyond banged up right now…and they weren’t all that good to begin with – especially against the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Cam Newton

No, this is not one of those “He can’t really be this good!  He’s going to fail eventually!” picks… I have actually been very impressed by the youngster so far this year.  Unfortunately, the Saints’ defense will be unlike anything he has played so far.  The Packers were definitely a better defense, but they played very vanilla against him.  He has never faced a defense that will attack him like New Orleans will this Sunday.  I think Newton will go on to have a very good season, but not this week against New Orleans.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 180 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs; 45 rushing yards, 2 fumbles

Sit Em – Tom Brady

Just hear me out.  Obviously, if you have Tom Brady, you probably don’t have a reliable backup.  That’s ok.  He could still get you 15 to 18 fantasy points this week.  However, if you are in a small league, and you were able to pick up someone like Matt Stafford as a backup, you should look very seriously at benching Brady this week, and it has everything to do with the Patriots’ Week 5 opponent and Brady’s checkered history against them.

The Jets have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and Darrelle Revis will be able to shut down Wes Welker better than anyone else in the league.  That leaves Brady with only Rob Gronkowski as a legitimate weapon all day, and the Jets will be licking their chops to rush Brady if New England only has five guys protecting him.

Plus, consider Brady’s last five starts against the Jets:

• 2010 Playoffs: 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• 2010 Week 2: 248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2010 Week 13: 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 11: 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Based on the averages, Brady will still throw for 250 yards, and may even have a few TDs…and of course he has the potential to throw a 4 TD gem against anyone…but the Jets have also proven that more often than not they at least pull Brady back to the pack; thus, there could definitely be much better options than him for your lineup this week.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers are just bad, and he’s banged up.
• Donovan McNabb – I’m just trying to pad my stats for next week…
• Matt Ryan – They might lose by 50 points to Green Bay.
• Jay Cutler – Detroit’s defensive line will make him dance by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Everything here sounds reasonable, including Jon’s thoughts on Brady (who I’d still start though, personally), but I disagree on Matt Ryan. He and the Falcons offense are much better at home and in domes, and the Green Bay defense is giving up a lot through the air. I say start Ryan. He’s a top 10 QB this week.

———-

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville is just awful, and they will ride Mo-Joe until he falls over in the second quarter during week 8.  I feel bad for the guy, having his prime ruined on lousy teams.  Fortunately, his fantasy owners will make good – especially this week against Cincinnati.

Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 180 yards, 1 TD; 80 yards receiving

Start Em – Joseph Addai

He’s quietly had a pretty decent year, despite all of the upheaval in Indy.  The Colts’ offense should move a little more fluidly with Curtis Painter as well.  To top that off, Indy will be playing Kansas City in a game that the Colts foolishly think they need to win.  Colts’ fans will watch in horror as Indy ruins their chances at Andrew Luck.

Joseph Addai Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 135 yards, 1 TD; 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Darren Sproles – He’s just so fast…and Carolina’s LBs are hurt.
• LeGarrette Blount – San Francisco is actually sneaky decent…Tampa Bay will be forced to grind it out more than normal.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – He might have 150 yards receiving against the Pats.
• Mike Tolbert – Playing Denver…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer – Rashard Mendenhall

He’s awful, and Tennessee is good.

Rashard Mendenhall Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 10 yards rushing

Sit Em – Michael Turner

Remember the last time Green Bay played Atlanta, on that fast turf, indoors, and jumped out to a huge lead, and rendered Michael Turner unusable against a defensive line that was already amazing at stuffing the run?  Oh.  Me neither…

Michael Turner Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 25 yards rushing; 15 yards receiving

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Shonn Greene – Not a great matchup against NE.
• BJGE – Pats won’t have a good day on offense.
• James Starks – The Packers don’t run the ball…and they don’t need to.
• Matt Forte – Detroit’s defensive line will make him cry by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Joseph Addai has been surprisingly effective this season, and I like him as a flex option this week, perhaps even over Mendenhall (who I’m growing to hate), but I personally would not start him over Michael Turner. I know the Packers held him down in the playoffs last year, but in Week 12 of 2010 he had over 100 yards and a TD against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome, and Green Bay’s defense is not nearly as good this year. Hell, let me just say it: I like everyone in the Packers-Falcons game, and with Turner averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year, I can’t recommend sitting him.

———-

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

I will continue to pick him every week until he becomes human.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 TDs.

Start Em – Deion Branch

If the Jets do what I think they will do, I think Branch will have a breakout game of sorts.  Look for Gronkowski and Welker to be neutralized, and Branch to have a pretty decent game.

Deion Branch Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD.

Other Guys I Like

• Reggie Wayne – Got a lot of targets last week with Painter, and should have a favorable matchup against anyone on KC.
• Hakeem Nicks – Huge game for him.
• AJ Green – He’s unbelievable…I keep telling you.
• Devery Henderson – Despite registering zero catches last week, Carolina won’t be able to stay in front of him and Henderson will bounce back.

Projected Worst Performer – David Nelson

Nnamdi Asomugha finally justifies the money that was spent on him this summer.

David Nelson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Pierre Garcon

Don’t chase TDs!  He only had two catches on Monday Night, and although they ended up being two giant home runs, he only caught the ball one-fourth of the time it was thrown to him.  Believe me, this is hard for me to say, because Pierre is my favorite player.  I may or may not have spent more than 100 bucks on a Super Bowl jersey with his name and number that ended up being a curse against the Saints.  Either way, don’t be fooled by his “big game” against Tampa.  He’s hit or miss…and this week is a miss.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 0 catches

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Wes Welker – Bad game by his standards.
• Victor Cruz – Stop drinking the Cruz kool-aid…right now…at least for one more week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough game for Newton and the Panthers.
• Jacoby Jones – Don’t be fooled…he won’t have a break out game, no matter who is hurt on his team.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

So long as people make sure to still start Wes Welker – because you can’t sit him right now – I’m fine with him being in Jon’s dislike section. I also agree on Garcon. Don’t overreact to one big week and a couple of fluky touchdowns. As for Nelson, the question is who will Nnamdi cover? The Eagles play a lot of zone, which has been part of their secondary’s downfall since they have a lot of good cover corners. And I agree on Branch. I thought he’d bounce back last week, but I think it comes this week with one of Brady’s favorite all-time targets getting the 3rd or 4th best cover option on the Jets.

———-

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jermaine Gresham

He’s really good and the Jaguars are really bad.

Jermaine Gresham Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection: 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em – Brandon Pettigrew

I watched, first hand, two weeks ago as the Chicago Bears proved they couldn’t guard tight ends and Jermichael Finley went off.  Look for Pettigrew to have a big day in a huge Monday Night Football game that the city of Detroit deserves.

Brandon Pettigrew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton’s security blanket all game against the blitzing Saints.
• Dallas Clark – Let’s just hook everybody up the the Curtis Painter rejuvenation machine!
• Owen Daniels – He’s the guy that will get more looks with Andre Johnson being out.
• Scott Chandler – I know I always say not to chase TDs…but I think he grabs one or two this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Heath Miller

When Tight Ends lose it…they LOSE it…and Heath Miller has lost it.

Heath Miller Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 1 catch for 8 yard

Sit Em – Vernon Davis

Tampa Bay did a great job of locking down Dallas Clark, and they should have similar success against the 49ers.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 40 yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• I originally picked Jimmy Graham, but as I thought about it, I started to have second thoughts.  Then, I read Jerod’s thoughts below, and completely agreed.  There really aren’t any of the big name tight ends that I dislike this week…so I am sticking to Davis and these other two guys.
• Jeff King – Rough day for Arizona
• Jeremy Shockey – One get enough looks against New Orleans.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, you can’t sit Jimmy Graham. Sorry Jon, but I disagree here strongly. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes this year and he’s had over 100 yards the last two weeks. He’s also scored three times. The reality is that Graham, not Colston, not Meachem, not Moore, not Henderson, is Drew Brees’ #1 target right now. Also, I’d think long and hard before sitting Vernon Davis. Alex Smith gained a lot of confidence last week, and Davis remains the best receiving threat on the team. If you’re going to sit him, make sure it’s for someone the caliber of Gronkowski, Pettigrew, or Graham. Remember: talent usually wins out over time, and few tight ends are as talented as Vernon Davis.

**********

As always, feel free to ask your questions in the comment section and I will do my best to respond.  Or, you can send them to me on twitter anytime: @The_Dr_Twitch.

Let’s take a look at the fantasy football-relevant injuries going into week 3, including Peyton Hillis, Tony Romo, and Beanie Wells.

AFC North

Wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens, Lee Evans, was ruled out for Sunday’s game against the St. Louis Rams, despite his confidence in his ankle to handle the game.

Cincinnati Bengals AJ Green, wide receiver, is listed as probable for Sunday’s game. His toe injury isn’t keeping him off the depth chart for the Bengals where he’s first in the lineup.

Peyton Hillis, running back for the Cleveland Browns, is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins due to illness. However, the Browns still have Hillis listed first in the lineup, but I’d check back Sunday morning to make sure he’s still there.

AFC South

Houston Texans will make a game time decision on whether or not to play running back Arian Foster for Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. Foster is not listed on the depth chart. I’d keep him off, folks.

Dallas Clark, tight end for the Indianapolis Colts did not practice on Friday and is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Clark is dealing with a foot injury.

Receiver for the Tennessee Titans, Kenny Britt cut practice short on Wednesday when his hamstring tightened up but was back practicing Friday.

AFC East

Steve Johnson, wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills, was out earlier this week suffering from a groin issue. However, he’s first on the Bills depth chart for their game against the Patriots.

New England tight end, Aaron Hernandez, is out of Sunday’s game against the Bills because of a knee injury. I am a little disappointed in this one because he was one of my better fantasy players.

AFC West

It looks like Denver Broncos’ Brandon Lloyd will be back in the lineup for Sunday’s game. Both Lloyd and running back Knowshon Moreno are first in their respective positions on the Broncos depth chart.

Jacoby Ford, wide receiver for the Oakland Raiders is out for the week 3 game against the Jets due to a hamstring injury. It’s unclear when he will return.

Both Mike Tolbert and Antonio Gates have struggled with injuries for the San Diego Chargers. I’d check back Sunday morning. No one seems sure of their status.

NFC North

Jermichael Finley, tight end for the Green Bay Packers, is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against division rival the Chicago Bears. However, Finley is not listed on the line up. Check back tomorrow morning.

The Detroit Lions are dealing with injuries to Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew but have put them as first in the lineup for Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings.

NFC South

Both Roddy White, wide reciever, and Matt Ryan, quarterback, for the Atlanta Falcons were suffering from knee injuries but both are listed as probable for Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay.

No worries, Panther fans, Cam Newton has been practicing in full since Wednesday and is listed as probable for tomorrow’s game against Jacksonville.

While Bucaneer tight end, Kellen Winslow, practiced Thursday and Friday, his knee is still listed as questionable, but he is still listed as first in the lineup.

NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys have a plethora of injuries they are dealing with. Tony Romo states that his lung has healed. Now they are waiting on his ribs. No one has mentioned whether or not he will play on Monday. Wide receiver, Dez Bryant, did not participate in Friday’s practice and Felix Jones was limited at practice.

New York Giant, Mario Manningham, did not practice on Friday and is doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Eagles.

Speaking of Eagles, quarterback Michael Vick looks as though he will be ready to play on Sunday. He was practicing on Friday and looks to be ready to go. I’d still check back Sunday morning.

NFC West

Chris Wells, running back for the Arizona Cardinals, is suffering from hamstring injury and is will be a game time decision. Arizona plays a later game on Sunday, so you need to make a decision before the team decides.

San Fransisco 49ers wide receiver, Michael Crabtree, is probable for Sunday’s game and is in the lineup.

Wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks, Sidney Rice, will make his season debut against the Arizona Cardinals this week. Rice missed the first two games due to a shoulder injury.

Steven Jackson, running back for the St. Louis Rams, is going to be a game time decision.

There’s your injury update for week 3. Have a happy football Sunday!

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

**********

Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

Here is how it will work: I will run down some of the recommendations I gave leading into the previous Sunday that worked as well as some that didn’t; then, more importantly, the comment section will then be yours to dole out “thanks” to any MSF writer who gave you a good recommendation or to call out a “shank” of a recommendation that hurt your team that week.

Hopefully this can be done all in good fun and serves as a way to crystallize lessons that can be learned from picks that worked and from those that didn’t. Just remember when you call us out for a “shank” that the ultimate decision was yours, so try to be fair in doling blame. But know that we do take our recommendations seriously and work hard to make good ones, and we’re happy to be temporary online pinatas if you need to do a little venting.

Week 2 “Thanks”

Here are a few of the Week 2 recommendations that I bet people will be thanking me for:

• I told numerous people to start Devery Henderson over the likes of Plaxico Burress, Percy Harvin, and others because of Marques Colston’s absence and Henderson’s superb Week 1 performance. He responded by having a decidedly Devery day: 3 catches, 103 yards, 1 touchdown.
• Despite an awful Week 1 performance and the presence of the Eagles’ superb cornerbacks, I recommended Matt Ryan to a number of people based on his excellent history at home. Ryan responded with only 195 yards but four touchdowns. Overall, a very solid fantasy day.
• LeGarrette Blount owners were readying themselves to jump off of tall building all week, but I implored them to not overreact. Blount only got five carries in Week 1 because Tampa Bay fell behind early and was facing the juggernaut that is the Lions’ front four. Still, Blount own coach admitted it was a mistake to abandon Blount so early. All signs pointed to a bounceback performance, and it happened. Blount still only got 13 carries but he turned them into 71 yards and a two touchdowns, a great fantasy day.
• Even after he only caught one pass in Week 1, I think I recommended Jeremy Maclin to anyone who asked me about him. Maclin responded by catching 13 balls for 171 yards and 2 TDs. Have patience with proven players, my friends.
• Fred Davis snared six passes for 86 yards and a TD. I recall recommending him to a number of people.

Week 2 “Shanks”

But, as always, even the most logical and well-thought out recommendations did not turn out as planned. Here are a few of my Week 2 recommendations I shanked and that I’m sure more than a few people would like to bop me on the head over:

• I really thought Jay Cutler was going to have a good day for the Bears. The Saints’ D had been getting torched, and I knew Cutler would have to throw to keep up with Brees and Co. Unfortunately, I underestimated just how crappy the Bears’ O-Line would play on the road against a blitz-happy defense. Cutler finished a putrid 19-45 with 1 TD.
• I recommended Buffalo’s D to a few people after picking them up for myself in a few leagues. I thought the West Coast-to-East Coast jet lag and the Raiders’ lack of a passing attack would keep their scoring down. How wrong I was. I regret this decision because it violated my own tenets of logic and making players/units prove it on the field. What had Buffalo really proven against Kansas City? Nothing.
• I told anyone who would listen that I don’t trust rookie WRs and wouldn’t start AJ Green even though he caught a TD in Week 1. Green responded by catching 10 passes for 124 yards and a TD from his fellow rookie QB. I don’t regret this recommendation because distrusting rookies works more than it doesn’t, but it may be time to start considering Green an exception to that rule.
• I told a number of people that I thought Brandon Lloyd would play and be a good start option. He didn’t even play. Now that’s a shank.
• Felix Jones. There, I said it. Let’s just move along before I get angry and throw something.

Those are just a few of the recommendations, good and bad, that I remember giving multiple times before yesterday’s Week 2 action. The comment section is now yours to thank me or shank me, or to do either to any other writer on this site.

Let’s get it out of our system now so that as soon as the Rams-Giants MNF game ends tonight we can turn our collective attention to Week 3.