(Sunday morning update: The Browns have lifted the suspension of Kellen Winslow after text messages surfaced from a Browns PR employee that pressured Winslow to keep quiet about his staph infection.  Winslow will still not play against the Jaguars.)

It has been suggested in the comments sections here at Midwest Sports Fans that those of us who cover the Cleveland Browns consistently exhibit too much optimism about this year’s team. The irony, of course, is that “optimism” and “Cleveland Browns fans” are very seldom found in the same sentence. I am not a lifelong Browns fan, but have grown into a zealous one over the past five years; once thing I have learned about the Browns and their fans that even in the best of times, there is a resounding and perpetual fear of the proverbial “other shoe dropping.”

I am prefacing my preview of the upcoming Browns-Jaguars game in this way because for the first time this season, my gut instinct is telling me that the Browns will lose to the Jaguars. In every game so far this season, had I been forced to bet my savings based on my gut feeling, I would have placed it on the Browns. This week, my gut is telling me the Jaguars.

My hope, however, is that after analyzing the game I can come up with a rational and reasoned prediction that gives my gut feeling the middle finger and still allows me to pick the Browns anyway.

Let’s move on now, to the keys for the Browns-Jaguars game in Jacksonville this Sunday at 4:30 on CBS:

Key #1: The Jaguars running game against the Browns run defense

Talk about hitting the negatives head on right from the get-go. Clearly, this is the biggest mismatch in the game, and the primary reason for my gut fear about Sunday. We know that the Jaguars love to establish a clock-controlling running game behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. And we know that the Browns have been gashed this season by Clinton Portis, Bill Clinton, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Le’Ron McLain, Willis McGahee, Willis Reed, Marion Barber, Marion Jones, Felix Jones, Felix the Cat…pretty much anyone who has taken a handoff against the Browns D.

In two out of Jacksonville’s three wins, either Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor has gone over 100 yards. As a team, the Jaguars run for 116.5 yards for game (actually lower than I expected) while the Browns give up 8,798.5 yards per game on the group (actually, “only” 146.3). But the Jaguars have been running it better lately, minus the Pittsburgh game, and the Browns run defense has shown no signs of improving. Still, the Browns D has forged a very strong bend-but-don’t-break mentality and given up only 14 points to both the Giants and Redskins despite strong days from their running backs.

No question, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are licking their chops for this weekend. I am hard-pressed to find a reason why they won’t combine for 150 yards rushing between them. Clearly, this is a huge advantage for the Jaguars.

However…

Key #2: The Browns’ play-making secondary against the David Garrard

The highlight of the Browns season so far has been the play of Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald. In two consecutive games, Eric Wright has stepped up and 1) sealed the Giants win with a Pick-6 and 2) given the Browns a chance to win with his timely strip of Clinton Portis in the 4th quarter. For the Jaguars, Matt Jones will likely play this weekend as his appeal for the cocaine-related suspension gets worked out. This is bad news for the Browns, because Matt Jones is a tall receiver with speed (with Plaxico Burress) who could find success if he gets matched upon on the human turnstile Terry Cousins. And Jones is the only reliable receiver that David Garrard has had this season.

For his part, Garrard has been uncharacteristically careless with the football this season. He has already thrown 4 INTs, to go along with his 4 TDs. We know that the Jaguars will be able to run against the Browns — but so has everyone else, and the Browns defense has still kept scoring down. There will be a few opportunities for Eric Wright, Brandon McDonald, and Brodney Pool to make game-changing plays on Sunday. For the Browns to have a chance, they must convert these opportunities into momentum changers for the Browns. I see no reason, based on the results of this season so far, to believe that they won’t be able to make the plays when they are there.

The advantage here goes to the Browns, and it is imperative that this hold up for the Browns to have a chance at the road victory.

Key #3: Derek “Damnit” Anderson and Braylon “Dropsie” Edwards

As always, the Browns chances come down to these two maddeningly inconsistent offensive “leaders.” Look at the Browns results so far this season. In the one game the offense played well and the Browns won convincingly, Derek Anderson had over 300 yards passing and Braylon Edwards played like the star his talent suggests that he is. In their other five games, including the ugly Cincinnati victory, Derek Anderson has been below 167 yards passing and Braylon Edwards has been, well, pathetic.

Why can this week be different? Who knows. Maybe it won’t be. DA and Braylon are making it very difficult for me to profess faith in them and maintain any credibility or appearance of sanity. The only silver lining I see is that Jacksonville is giving up nearly 230 yards passing per game. As a team, Jacksonville is actually giving up 10 more yards per game overall than the Browns defense, which seems surprising based on reputation. The truth is that Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards proved last year that they are talented enough to put up numbers against any defense when they are confident, focused, and in rhythm.

But which Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards will show up? The superstars who played great in the Giants game and reminded us all of last year? Or the turds who have shown up in every other game this year, frustrating Browns nation to the point that our faith in a potential Quinn-Steptoe combo is on par with Anderson-Edwards right now. Derek and Braylon stepped up in the biggest game of the year, on the biggest stage, against the best opponent. They fell flat in all five other games. This is a complete toss-up that no one can predict, yet will decide the outcome of the game.

Tell me again how anyone consistently makes money gambling on the NFL??? No-Frieking-Logic.

I guess I will have to move onto a tie-breaking Key #4. Let’s see, where could we go with this one…

Coaching? Jack del Rio has a little bit better track record than Romeo Crennel. So no.

Venue? Crap…Jacksonville is at home. So no.

Team Focus and Mindset? Jacksonville has been dealing with their trasher wide receiver from Arkansas getting suspended for cocaine use. Ho hum, it’s the NFL…and he’s from Arkansas. Cleveland is dealing with a star player and management at odds over a problem, staph infections, that threatens the team’s future ability to sign free agents. The story has been front page news all week. Damnit…no, can’t use that one either.

Wait, I’ve got it!

Special-Bonus Key #4: Joshua Cribbs

Here is the difference in Sunday’s game folks. The 2008 coming out party for Browns special teams superstar Joshua Cribbs. In 2007, Cribbs returned three kicks for touchdowns and seemed to push the momentum in the Browns favor and switch field position every time he touched the ball. This year, Cribbs has been slowed by injury as well as by the general malaise and ineffectiveness that has plagued all of last year’s big-play producers.

But not on Sunday.

I am not basing this prediction on any statistical analysis, film breakdown, or advanced scouting report. So feel free to flame away in the comments section and call my entire prediction bunk (Much Need Reality Check, I’m talking to you). Feel free to disregard this entire preview and prediction for ultimately being based more on an evolved gut feeling from when I started than from anything specific I learned during the process of researching/writing this article.

But here is the final verdict: For 59:50 seconds on Sunday’s game, Jacksonville will appear to be the better team and will, in fact, produce more points than the Cleveland Browns. For 10 glorious seconds, however, Joshua Cribbs will remind us of his 2007 greatness and announce his 2008 presence. I don’t know if it will be the opening kickoff or a punt late in the 4th quarter; but I know this: Joshua Cribbs is taking one to the house on Sunday. This play, along with one or two huge game-changers from the defensive backs, will allow the Browns to sneak out of Jacksonville with a W in a game in which the Jaguars will “appear” to be the better team.

But it’s the NFL. The “best” team on any given Sunday does not always win on that given Sunday, and games are usually won or lost as a result of two or three big plays that can trump the other 59:30 of the game. I don’t care if Derek and Braylon step up or not, and I’m done worrying about it because it’s driving me crazy. But the Browns are a desperate team who have capable playmakers outside of their mercurial QB and WR. and these underrated players are going to will the Browns to a win.

Jacksonville 20 | Cleveland 14 | Joshua Cribbs 7

Add it up, and it’s a 21-20 victory for the Cleveland Browns and a still-hanging-on record of 3-4.

I guess those previous post commentators here at Midwest Sports Fans were right — I can’t even talk myself out of irrational optimism for the 2008 Cleveland Browns.

[tags]cleveland browns, jacksonville jaguars, joshua cribbs, nfl, football[/tags]