I was not.

To me, this season was completely thrown away by the Bears front office, and it exposed the problems that GM Jerry Angelo continues to ignore. Angelo has something very special in Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, yet he continues to waste their talent by not supplying other offensive weapons around them.

Who does Cutler have to throw to? I am not content with the Bears’ number one receiver being Earl Bennett, or Devin Hester, or Roy Williams, and neither should Angelo; yet there hasn’t been any shred of news about the Bears seriously pursuing a proven receiver. 

A good enough, but not dominant defense plus two great players on offense is not going to lead to a Super Bowl.

Say what you want to about Cutler, but the kid goes out game after game and fights for a win and gets killed on the field doing it. This season he made the offense look as good as I’ve ever seen them, leading the team to a five game win streak, a 7-3 record, and a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

You can’t bring in a BMW but then give it four flat tires, yet that’s exactly what Angelo and company did, and it showed once Cutler and Forte went down.  The lack of planning and complete lack of trying to build players behind the starters showed in the last five games and would usually get a head coach or GM fired, but I doubt Lovie or Angelo are going anywhere.

Fans now have to sit back and hope the Bears front office begins to address the very clear needs of the team. It’s time to stop ignoring them.

Image credit: Brian Cassella/ Chicago Tribune

Forte left today’s game against the Chiefs with a knee injury. He has already been ruled out for the rest of the game. I just hope it is not something like an ACL tear, or anything else that will keep Forte out of action or inhibit his ability to get a new contract.

This would just be awful, awful news. Any serious injury to an athlete is terrible, but it would be most unfortunate in this case considering how hard Forte has played despite being one of the NFL’s most underpaid players. He’s spoken publicly about wanting a new contract, but he clearly has never taken his frustrations on the field with him.

I’ll post updates on Twitter when I hear more. Hopefully it turns out not to be as serious as feared.

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Update: As you can expect, MSF’s #1 Bears fan Tyler Juranovich is not taking the news of a possible Forte ACL tear very well:

@JerodMorris Rotowire says it’s a torn ACL. Kill me. Wasn’t I just talking to you about how I hoped this wouldn’t happen?? Dumb me.

Indeed, we were just discussing this. I checked Rotowire and all they said is that it might be an ACL tear. We’ll have to wait to find out for sure. I sure hope not, because if anyone in the NFL deserves to avoid injury this year, it’s Forte.

We fans fretted and conversed about the lockout and missed training camps, the kickoff rule change, a certain “Dream Team” in Philadelphia, and a #1 overall draft pick who just wasn’t going to cut it as an NFL quarterback; but few predicted the Bengals, Giants and 49ers would lead their divisions at this point.

Back then, no one knew the extent of Peyton Manning’s neck injury, and many thought Chad Ochocinco would be enjoying a resurgent season with the Patriots.  Chris Johnson held out for a bigger contract, and then promptly showed the exact reason NFL teams are hesitant to award running backs with big contracts, regardless of their previous performance.

And who would have guessed Carson Palmer would have 6 interceptions by this time in the year?  Well, yeah, everyone – but they would have assumed the picks would have come while Palmer spurned the Bengals by sitting on his couch and playing Madden.

Now that we have reached the midpoint of the 2011 season, let’s take a look at who the most outstanding players, coaches and executives have been so far.

Most Valuable Player

Aaron Rodgers – QB – Green Bay Packers

I think everyone is pretty much unanimous on this one.

Rodgers leads the NFL in passer rating by almost 30 points, leads in touchdown passes (24) and completion percentage (72.5%, and no, that’s not a misprint), and is 4th in passing yardage (although Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger, who rank 1st and 3rd, respectively, have played one more game than Rodgers).

Oh, and he has only thrown 3 interceptions and his team is an NFL-best 8-0.I have watched football for over 20 years, and I can’t remember ever seeing someone play the quarterback position at such a high level.  Not Brady in ’07, not Peyton in ’04 and not Curtis Painter in ’11 (sorry, Colts fans).

Brandon Marshall – 6-109-0.  Revis returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown in the 2nd quarter and added another pick in the second half.

Vincent Jackson – 1-15-0.  A Revis interception set up the go-ahead touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress.

Stevie Johnson – 3-84-0.

That’s a pretty impressive body of work, and Revis’ status as the best defender on the league’s best pass defense is good enough to earn him honors as the best defensive player of the first half.

Offensive Rookie of the (Half) Year

Andy Dalton QB – Cincinnati Bengals

This choice is going to draw some criticism.

Cam Newton has been the most thrilling rookie this year.  There is no debating that.  But what Dalton has done in leading the Bengals to a 6-2 record and the AFC North lead has been more impressive.

No one expected the Bengals to perform this well this year.  With the departure of mainstays Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals were expected to be a bottom-dweller with an inept offense.  Dalton and a hungry defense have turned those expectations on their ear.

Although his passing numbers aren’t as gaudy, Dalton has been very efficient.  He is completing 61.5% of his passes and has 12 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions.  Unlike Newton, Dalton hasn’t been able to rack up additional yardage while trailing big in games.

Dalton’s connection with fellow rookie A.J. Green has been spectacular, and Cincinnati seems to have two very important pieces for a successful future.

Defensive Rookie of the (Half) Year

Von Miller – Denver Broncos

This was a tough decision.

On one hand, Miller has been a pass rushing phenom and has established himself as the best player on the Broncos defense.  On the other hand, San Francisco’s Aldon Smith has been a great playmaker as well.

Miller gets the edge here because even though he and Smith are tied with 6.5 sacks apiece, Miller has a 31-13 advantage in total tackles.  Plus, Smith has the good fortune of playing linebacker alongside Patrick Willis (who is as good as any LB in the NFL) and NaVorro Bowman (the NFL’s leading tackler).  Miller doesn’t have that kind of help, but he has been borderline un-blockable this year.

If only people would take more notice in the midst of Tebow-mania.

Comeback Player of the (Half) Year

Steve Smith – WR – Carolina Panthers

One byproduct of Cam Newton’s gunslinging has been the resurgence of Steve Smith.

Most had written Smith off, thinking his physical ability had declined.  In reality, it was the dreadful quarterbacking of Matt Moore and Jimmy Claussen that had so doomed Smith last year.  The fiery receiver still has plenty left in the tank, and he’s showing everyone this year just how great he is and has been.

So far Smith is 2nd in the NFL in receptions (46) and yards (918).  He also boasts the league’s highest yards-per-catch at an even 20.  Perhaps as important, he hasn’t been a distraction to his team at all, as he seems content to be racking up big numbers again.

As long as Smith doesn’t punch anyone during the next 8 weeks he should lock this award up easily.

Coach of the (Half) Year

Jim Harbaugh – San Francisco 49ers

Sure, maybe he gets a little overexcited at times.  That hasn’t stopped Harbaugh from engineering the best turnaround of the season.

The 49ers have jumped out to a 7-1 start by grinding teams down with their running game and playing crushing defense.  The cliche says that in order to win you have to be able to run the football and stop the other team from doing so.  This year, the 49ers are 7th in rushing yards behind a healthy Frank Gore, who has tallied 100 yards or more on the ground in 5 straight games.  They are the best in the NFL at defending the run, allowing only 70 yards per game.

Harbaugh has also helped Alex Smith develop into a game manager who protects the ball (only 2 interceptions) and makes smart decisions.  With that running game and defense, Smith just has to keep his team in the game in order to be successful.

Most importantly, Harbaugh has instilled a sense of confidence in this team.  For the most part, the talent has been in place in San Francisco.  With the winning attitude the players have gained from their coach, a division title should be automatic, and the Super Bowl seems much more realistic than most might have thought.

Executive of the (Half) Year

Mike Brown – Cincinnati Bengals

Photo by Mike Simons AP

Never in my life did I think I would write the two lines above.

Let me start by saying that most of the things that have made Brown look like a genius this season could easily be attributed to dumb luck.  I couldn’t argue otherwise very effectively.  But you can’t help but recognize the Bengals’ great track record over the past year.

Brown’s hardline stance with Carson Palmer led to a trade for a first-round pick (and maybe a second one, pending the rest of the season’s results) from the Oakland Raiders.  Granted, no one thought a team would pony up that kind of loot for Palmer, but credit Brown for waiting it out until a team was desperate enough to overpay.

Drafting A.J. Green and Andy Dalton has replaced Palmer and Ochocinco, and as I mentioned above, the future looks bright.  Maybe Atlanta giving away the farm to get Julio Jones helped Brown land Green, and maybe it was pure luck that led to every team passing on Dalton in the first round (Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder were all drafted ahead of Dalton).  Even the decision not to overpay Johnathan Joseph was a good one, as veteran Nate Clements signed for a fraction of Joseph’s price and has performed well.

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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Image Credits: sbnation.com, stripehype.com

Even though the Bears come into this game as the underdogs to most people, I’d say the pressure is on Philadelphia to win this game. The Eagles are at home against a team they’re “supposed” to beat, so it’s their job to go out there and do just that.

The Bears, on the other hand, know that they’re not going to catch Green Bay (who is?), but they have a relatively easy schedule ahead of them, making a wild card run possible.

Bears-Eagles Preview

The Bears like being called the underdog, and a lot of people like calling them that. That’s why this team continues to surprise people in games in which they’re supposed to lose, yet also why it’s sometimes frustrating to be a Bears fan.

Julius Peppers is having a quiet but effective second year in Chicago. He and the ever-aging Bears defense go against a very speedy Eagles offense. Some say that the Bears will never stop Michael Vick, but the past says otherwise.

Vick is actually 0-3 as a starter against the Bears. He has a 76.2 passer rating, has only rushed for 117 yards with no touchdowns, he has been sacked 15 times, and has thrown four interceptions in five games against Chicago. So the Bears have stopped Vick in the past, but can they stop the rest of the Eagles offense?

One of those other Eagles players is running back LeSean McCoy, who had a season-high of 185 yards and two rushing touchdowns last week. Mccoy has consistently been a threat in the backfield and is approaching Adrian Peterson-level respect.

But the Bears have a running back of their own who is also approaching Peterson’s level as being as big a threat as any player in the NFL. His name is Matt Forte.

To put it simply: Forte is the Bears offense. They live and die by Forte, as he leads the team is rushing and receiving. Sure, Jay Cutler has his moments of dominance, but that’s only when the offensive line decides to do their job, which is still sporadic enough for me to not trust it completely.

Cutler doesn’t affect the game like Forte does. It’s very hard to see the Bears winning any game without Forte on his game, unless the defense causes 3-4 turnovers.

Bears-Eagles Prediction

Neither of these teams has been consistent enough to say that either team is the obvious favorite in this game, but I have to give a very slight edge to the Philadelphia Eagles. I have a feeling Vick is finally  going to have some success against an older Bears defense.

But then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears come into this game fresh out the bye week and tear into this Eagles defense. They’ve surprised me plenty of times before.

Eagles 27 – Bears 24

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Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

• Bears-Eagles Date, Time, and TV: Monday, November 7th at 8:30 ET on ESPN
• Bears-Eagles Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Bears-Eagles Point Spread: Eagles -9
• Bears-Eagles Over-Under Odds: 47

So what if the guy has nearly 50% of the offense’s total yards and leads the team in both receiving and rushing yards and gets paid less than a million dollars a year? Trust in Jerry Angelo. He knows best.

Angelo has brought us greats such as Rex Grossman and Kordell Stewart. Angelo built a team that almost brought home a Super Bowl victory, which in Chicago is a HUGE thing because Chicago hasn’t seen a championship since the Bulls in 1990′s.

Don’t tell me “The Sox won the World Series in 2005, and the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup in 2010,” because no one takes hockey seriously and no one really considers the Sox as the real Chicago baseball team.

Instead, fans should rally around a much better and honorable slogan. “Pay Jay!”

Besides, Jay is the man who actually hands the ball off to Forte. No Jay = no Forte.

Jay will only make $9.5 million this season, a season where he hasn’t thrown one single interception (don’t believe the official NFL stat or anyone else that tells you otherwise), has said “F**k you” to Mike Martz, and has rekindled his love life.

In retrospect, Cutler has done everything the Bears expected him to do, and yet they continue to under-appreciate his talents.

I can’t imagine and don’t want to live in world were such an injustice exists. Pay Jay now!

Join other Cutlerites in solidarity and sign this petition, stating that you approve the “Pay Jay!” movement.

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They are the stars of our latest photo story: “Bust Buddies”.

Note for my dad and others: if you are not up on your Internet memes, here is the definition of fffffuuuuuuu.

Update: If you enjoyed this photo story, you’ll probably enjoy the one posted next. It’s called “Sucks for Luck” and tackles the incessant Andrew Luck hype and the increasing probability of a very tough decision looming in Indianapolis.

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Rivers, coming off of three straight outstanding fantasy seasons (at least 4,000 yards and 28 TDs in each one), is mired in a slump of epic proportions that was appropriately punctuated on Monday night when he let a road win over Kansas City literally slip right through his fingers.

Johnson’s awful play has perhaps been even more egregious considering his contentious holdout before the season started. He eventually got his money, but the Titans haven’t gotten anything close to what they paid for. The Panthers undoubtedly feel the same regarding their own recently paid and underperforming running back, DeAngelo Williams. (Meanwhile, Matt Forte continues to be ground into a pulp at the bargain price of $555K.)

As you can see, this entire situation was so easy to lampoon that it only took me 13 frames.

All joking aside, I know many of you fantasy owners have questions about what you should do with Rivers, Johnson, and DAW. I’ll try to get a post up tonight or tomorrow with a few extended thoughts on the matter, including what to expect from these 2011 turds moving forward, but in a nutshell you just have to hang tight. You can’t play them, but you can’t drop them, but you probably can’t trade them either. You just have to wait it out and hope they start to put up something close to their track record.

I know. It sucks. Such is life in fantasy football. There are always highly drafted, highly paid players who tank. This season it’s these guys. Bastards!

At this point in the season, we have collected enough data and stats to make more sound decisions. Then again, it’s all how you interpret those statistics. Here are a few I find interesting.

1000/1000 Club – Population: 2 (for now…)

It’s only Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig right now, but that number has a chance to double this year. Both Ray Rice and Matt Forte are on track to join the 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in a single year group. Both have the schedules to do it. In their fourth year in the league, both have their teams leaning on them.

Through 5 games, Rice stands at 398 rushing yards and 302 receiving yards. He’s on track to get 1,280 rushing yards and only 960 receiving yards. He’s just shy, but don’t think they won’t need him to help him get those receiving yards as the weather starts to turn and downfield passing becomes more difficult. The next two games against Jacksonville and Arizona will be a good show of his talents.

Through 6 games, Forte is leading his team in both rushing and receiving with 527 yards on the ground and 381 in the air. His production has been unbelievable and if he can stay healthy there is no reason he shouldn’t end up as a top 5 running back. Keeping this pace, Forte will reach 1,400 rushing yards and 1,011 receiving yards. Worth a bit more than a franchise tag, wouldn’t you say?

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart

Can’t it be that time of year when one of them gets injured? That would make all of our lives so much easier. The offseason appeared to figure this time share out for us after Carolina kept Williams, agreeing to pay him $43 million over five years. Normally you don’t pay a running back that sort of money unless you plan on featuring him.

This isn’t the case here.

Cam Newton is running the offense primarily out of the shotgun, spreading the field, and taking running opportunities himself. Through six games, Williams has 58 carries, Stewart has 44 carries, and Newton has 47. While Williams has turned his 58 carries into 302 yards, Stewart isn’t far behind converting his carries into 210 yards.

Sure Williams is still the “feature” back, but this offense is built on quick movement and the ability for their young QB to dump passes away in the flat. Here, Stewart takes a major leap in production over Williams as Stewart has been able to catch 21 passes as opposed to Williams’ 8 catches. Their total touches: Williams 64, Stewart 65. Not only has Stewart caught 21 passes, the third most receptions for the Panthers, but he has done so on only 23 targets. Stewart has turned those receptions into 210 yards while Williams has added just 48 receiving yards. Williams’ all purpose is just 350 yards compared to Stewart’s 420.

While they are both likely to break into fantasy lineups during the bye weeks, Stewart appears to be the more stable option with the higher upside, especially in PPR leagues, even though the carries have leaned towards Williams the past couple of weeks.

Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz

With Manningham sidelined against the Eagles, Victor Cruz stormed on the scene grabbing 110 yards and two touchdowns. For the next two games he seemed like he was well worth the #1 waiver wire claim as he accumulated 260 yards and a TD even with Manningham on the field. Thispast week he came crashing down with only two receptions for 12 yards and has many people wondering if the few weeks were flukes and if Manningham now regains the number two position in New York.

In my opinion, Manningham never lost the number two receiver spot. If you look at the first two games of the season, Cruz was only targeted two times and caught both balls for a total of 17 yards. With Manningham out, Cruz was able to gather 110 yards and two TDs, but it was only on three receptions and five targets. His largest gain: 74 yards! The next two games were a product of the team struggling, but Cruz always seemed to gather points by fluky catches for long yards. He was targeted nine times against a very weak secondary of the Cardinals, and eleven times against Seattle, but those are both games where the Giants fell behind and were gunning to get back in it.

Even missing a game, Manningham has been targeted more times and I fully expect that he will become a consistent 5 catch for 50+ yards a week receiver. Sure Cruz may have more huge game upside, but those games will be inconsistent. Going forward, Manningham appears to be the more consistent, smart play.

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Be sure to check out the rest of our Week 7 fantasy football content:

• Week 7 Start/Sit
• Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups
• Week 7 Player Rankings

Andre Johnson is gone.  Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.  Miles Austin is on the mend.  Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?

With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost.  If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings.  But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug.  Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.

So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.

As always, let’s briefly recap last week’s picks just to see how we did.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Four Recap

Overall – 29 for 47 (62%)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Megatron and Rob Gronkowski
• Misses: Matt Stafford and Adrian Peterson

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Greg Olsen
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress (Thanks a lot…Sanchez…)

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 12 for 16

• Hits: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, and Tony Gonzalez
• Misses: Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, and Jermichael Finley.

Worst Player Predictions: 0 for 4

• Misses: Kyle Orton, Texans’ Running Backs (HUGE MISS…sorry guys), Sidney Rice, and Owen Daniels

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 4

• Hits: Joe Flacco
• Misses: Ray Rice (Never will I ever doubt him again), Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 12 for 15

• Hits: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Cowboys’ Running Backs, Chad Ochocinco, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow
• Misses: Denver Running Backs, Steve Smith 1.0, and Benjamin Watson

And now onto the Week 5 start em, sit em picks.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em Projections

One brief change this week:

As you know, Jerod did the Start/Sit column the last two years before handing the keys to me this year. He still edits the column before it’s posted though, and helps out in the comment section answering questions throughout the week. And while we agree on the majority of these picks, there are some spots where we differ, and we think it will add value to the column to have him chime in with alternate viewpoints when he has them.

So at the end of each position section, you’ll see a blockquote with Jerod’s quick-hit thoughts on the picks, especially any he strongly disagrees with. As always when it comes to our fantasy advice, MSF is an ego-free zone where helping readers put the best possible lineup together is the goal. This is just one more way we can work together to do that.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 5:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• St. Louis
• Miami
• Washington
• Baltimore

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Michael Vick

Vick started to look like the Vick of last season on Sunday, and his team still got the loss.  Buffalo’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as they have been torched by several teams already this season.  Look for Vick to try and put the Eagles on his shoulders as they travel to Buffalo trying to save their season.  The Eagles may not win, but Vick should have a MONSTER day.

Michael Vick Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 380 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1INT; 85 rushing yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Philip Rivers

I almost feel like this is cheating, but Rivers is only ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks.  Look for him to start moving up the charts this week in Denver.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 350 yards, 3 TDs

Other Guys I Like:

• Eli Manning – At home against Seattle.
• Drew Brees – On the road in Carolina.
• Curtis Painter – Played well in his debut, and will be doing his best against the Chiefs to make sure the Colts don’t finish with the worst record in the league.
• Mark Sanchez – The Pats’ defense is beyond banged up right now…and they weren’t all that good to begin with – especially against the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Cam Newton

No, this is not one of those “He can’t really be this good!  He’s going to fail eventually!” picks… I have actually been very impressed by the youngster so far this year.  Unfortunately, the Saints’ defense will be unlike anything he has played so far.  The Packers were definitely a better defense, but they played very vanilla against him.  He has never faced a defense that will attack him like New Orleans will this Sunday.  I think Newton will go on to have a very good season, but not this week against New Orleans.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 180 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs; 45 rushing yards, 2 fumbles

Sit Em – Tom Brady

Just hear me out.  Obviously, if you have Tom Brady, you probably don’t have a reliable backup.  That’s ok.  He could still get you 15 to 18 fantasy points this week.  However, if you are in a small league, and you were able to pick up someone like Matt Stafford as a backup, you should look very seriously at benching Brady this week, and it has everything to do with the Patriots’ Week 5 opponent and Brady’s checkered history against them.

The Jets have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and Darrelle Revis will be able to shut down Wes Welker better than anyone else in the league.  That leaves Brady with only Rob Gronkowski as a legitimate weapon all day, and the Jets will be licking their chops to rush Brady if New England only has five guys protecting him.

Plus, consider Brady’s last five starts against the Jets:

• 2010 Playoffs: 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• 2010 Week 2: 248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2010 Week 13: 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 11: 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Based on the averages, Brady will still throw for 250 yards, and may even have a few TDs…and of course he has the potential to throw a 4 TD gem against anyone…but the Jets have also proven that more often than not they at least pull Brady back to the pack; thus, there could definitely be much better options than him for your lineup this week.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers are just bad, and he’s banged up.
• Donovan McNabb – I’m just trying to pad my stats for next week…
• Matt Ryan – They might lose by 50 points to Green Bay.
• Jay Cutler – Detroit’s defensive line will make him dance by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Everything here sounds reasonable, including Jon’s thoughts on Brady (who I’d still start though, personally), but I disagree on Matt Ryan. He and the Falcons offense are much better at home and in domes, and the Green Bay defense is giving up a lot through the air. I say start Ryan. He’s a top 10 QB this week.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville is just awful, and they will ride Mo-Joe until he falls over in the second quarter during week 8.  I feel bad for the guy, having his prime ruined on lousy teams.  Fortunately, his fantasy owners will make good – especially this week against Cincinnati.

Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 180 yards, 1 TD; 80 yards receiving

Start Em – Joseph Addai

He’s quietly had a pretty decent year, despite all of the upheaval in Indy.  The Colts’ offense should move a little more fluidly with Curtis Painter as well.  To top that off, Indy will be playing Kansas City in a game that the Colts foolishly think they need to win.  Colts’ fans will watch in horror as Indy ruins their chances at Andrew Luck.

Joseph Addai Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 135 yards, 1 TD; 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Darren Sproles – He’s just so fast…and Carolina’s LBs are hurt.
• LeGarrette Blount – San Francisco is actually sneaky decent…Tampa Bay will be forced to grind it out more than normal.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – He might have 150 yards receiving against the Pats.
• Mike Tolbert – Playing Denver…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer – Rashard Mendenhall

He’s awful, and Tennessee is good.

Rashard Mendenhall Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 10 yards rushing

Sit Em – Michael Turner

Remember the last time Green Bay played Atlanta, on that fast turf, indoors, and jumped out to a huge lead, and rendered Michael Turner unusable against a defensive line that was already amazing at stuffing the run?  Oh.  Me neither…

Michael Turner Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 25 yards rushing; 15 yards receiving

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Shonn Greene – Not a great matchup against NE.
• BJGE – Pats won’t have a good day on offense.
• James Starks – The Packers don’t run the ball…and they don’t need to.
• Matt Forte – Detroit’s defensive line will make him cry by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Joseph Addai has been surprisingly effective this season, and I like him as a flex option this week, perhaps even over Mendenhall (who I’m growing to hate), but I personally would not start him over Michael Turner. I know the Packers held him down in the playoffs last year, but in Week 12 of 2010 he had over 100 yards and a TD against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome, and Green Bay’s defense is not nearly as good this year. Hell, let me just say it: I like everyone in the Packers-Falcons game, and with Turner averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year, I can’t recommend sitting him.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

I will continue to pick him every week until he becomes human.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 TDs.

Start Em – Deion Branch

If the Jets do what I think they will do, I think Branch will have a breakout game of sorts.  Look for Gronkowski and Welker to be neutralized, and Branch to have a pretty decent game.

Deion Branch Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD.

Other Guys I Like

• Reggie Wayne – Got a lot of targets last week with Painter, and should have a favorable matchup against anyone on KC.
• Hakeem Nicks – Huge game for him.
• AJ Green – He’s unbelievable…I keep telling you.
• Devery Henderson – Despite registering zero catches last week, Carolina won’t be able to stay in front of him and Henderson will bounce back.

Projected Worst Performer – David Nelson

Nnamdi Asomugha finally justifies the money that was spent on him this summer.

David Nelson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Pierre Garcon

Don’t chase TDs!  He only had two catches on Monday Night, and although they ended up being two giant home runs, he only caught the ball one-fourth of the time it was thrown to him.  Believe me, this is hard for me to say, because Pierre is my favorite player.  I may or may not have spent more than 100 bucks on a Super Bowl jersey with his name and number that ended up being a curse against the Saints.  Either way, don’t be fooled by his “big game” against Tampa.  He’s hit or miss…and this week is a miss.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 0 catches

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Wes Welker – Bad game by his standards.
• Victor Cruz – Stop drinking the Cruz kool-aid…right now…at least for one more week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough game for Newton and the Panthers.
• Jacoby Jones – Don’t be fooled…he won’t have a break out game, no matter who is hurt on his team.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

So long as people make sure to still start Wes Welker – because you can’t sit him right now – I’m fine with him being in Jon’s dislike section. I also agree on Garcon. Don’t overreact to one big week and a couple of fluky touchdowns. As for Nelson, the question is who will Nnamdi cover? The Eagles play a lot of zone, which has been part of their secondary’s downfall since they have a lot of good cover corners. And I agree on Branch. I thought he’d bounce back last week, but I think it comes this week with one of Brady’s favorite all-time targets getting the 3rd or 4th best cover option on the Jets.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jermaine Gresham

He’s really good and the Jaguars are really bad.

Jermaine Gresham Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection: 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em – Brandon Pettigrew

I watched, first hand, two weeks ago as the Chicago Bears proved they couldn’t guard tight ends and Jermichael Finley went off.  Look for Pettigrew to have a big day in a huge Monday Night Football game that the city of Detroit deserves.

Brandon Pettigrew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton’s security blanket all game against the blitzing Saints.
• Dallas Clark – Let’s just hook everybody up the the Curtis Painter rejuvenation machine!
• Owen Daniels – He’s the guy that will get more looks with Andre Johnson being out.
• Scott Chandler – I know I always say not to chase TDs…but I think he grabs one or two this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Heath Miller

When Tight Ends lose it…they LOSE it…and Heath Miller has lost it.

Heath Miller Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 1 catch for 8 yard

Sit Em – Vernon Davis

Tampa Bay did a great job of locking down Dallas Clark, and they should have similar success against the 49ers.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 40 yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• I originally picked Jimmy Graham, but as I thought about it, I started to have second thoughts.  Then, I read Jerod’s thoughts below, and completely agreed.  There really aren’t any of the big name tight ends that I dislike this week…so I am sticking to Davis and these other two guys.
• Jeff King – Rough day for Arizona
• Jeremy Shockey – One get enough looks against New Orleans.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, you can’t sit Jimmy Graham. Sorry Jon, but I disagree here strongly. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes this year and he’s had over 100 yards the last two weeks. He’s also scored three times. The reality is that Graham, not Colston, not Meachem, not Moore, not Henderson, is Drew Brees’ #1 target right now. Also, I’d think long and hard before sitting Vernon Davis. Alex Smith gained a lot of confidence last week, and Davis remains the best receiving threat on the team. If you’re going to sit him, make sure it’s for someone the caliber of Gronkowski, Pettigrew, or Graham. Remember: talent usually wins out over time, and few tight ends are as talented as Vernon Davis.

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As always, feel free to ask your questions in the comment section and I will do my best to respond.  Or, you can send them to me on twitter anytime: @The_Dr_Twitch.

LeGarrette Blount only given five carries?!

Steve Smith for 178 yards?! Listen, I knew that Arizona was trying to figure out their secondary and was very weak after getting rid of Rodgers-Cromartie, but I never would have recommended you play Cam Newton in his first game as a pro!

I have a friend, to save his identity we will call him Kentoso, who had a great draft and his team blew up this week which was expected, but he blew up in an unexpected spot. He had both Stafford and Calvin Johnson. While I thought both of them would do well, I didn’t think they would do that well together. Stafford is dedicated to getting the ball to his best receiver. Much like Stafford, Kentoso is dedicated to a few things; fantasy football, pairing a strong receiver/ QB together, and drinking until he has no shame.

This week’s predictions will look at QB dedications that they will try to exploit this week or lose trying.

That is right, Kentoso, this one goes out to you for all those nights you don’t remember, for the time you duct tapped all the beer cans you drank through the night together and made a “wand”, and for the time you woke up in the hospital with an IV in. Thanks for beating me Week 1!

To begin, I will go back with where I started last week.

Kerry Collins and Joseph Addai/Dallas Clark

I predicted Joseph Addai would have a solid game against the Texans. My thought was that Kerry Collins would be getting rid of the ball as soon as possible and Addai would have a lot of opportunities. He only had 8 carries and 2 receptions. Expect more this week.

First, the Browns defense isn’t very good. Second, every week that Collins is there the team is going to get more in tune with him. Indy wasn’t able to create drives last week. When you’re playing from behind and constantly going 3 and out, no one will have a chance to put up points. Look for Addai and Dallas Clark to be integral parts of the offense. Expect around 100 total yards from Addai, most of them coming off screen passes as Collins leans on him.

Cam Newton and Steve Smith/Greg Olsen

The first game with Cam Newton made Steve Smith look like he was back in stud form. I don’t believe it.

First off, just read above. Cam Newton is an upgrade on QB for sure, but Steve Smith scored half of the fantasy points he scored last year in this one game. This week will be a better judge of how the Carolina passing attack will be this season. I would start Steve Smith as a number 2 or flex at best and stay away from Newton. If anyone, I would be high Greg Olsen since Cam Newton will be trying to get rid of the ball in a hurry as Clay Matthews charges at him!

On an additional note, there were only 11 games last year where the QB threw for 400 or more yards. There were 4 during this first week. Tamper your expectations with Newton. He won’t always be throwing for 400 yards. In fact, probably not again this season.

Rex Grossman and Santana Moss

I live in Bloomington, Indiana. In fact, I live very close to Grossman drive. Before preseason I thought the most interesting thing about the Redskins QBs would be the fact that they just brought in Ben Chappell who came from the same high school (Bloomington South) as Rex Grossman. I was definitely wrong!!

Grossman looked smart inside the pocket and made some great passes in a route of the Giants. Just like we looked out above, the Cardinals helped Cam Newton look like the number one overall pick was worth it. Expect Grossman to hook up with Santana Moss for major yards and for Rex to look like the Grossman that took the Bears to the Super Bowl. Moss for 100 and a TD and Grossman for 300 or more, easy. Grossman is a sneaky play this week.

Jay Cutler and Matt Forte

Speaking of Bears, both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte are great plays this week. I really like Forte from a skills standpoint and he showed it in Week 1 with 68 yards rushing and 90 yards receiving. He led the team in both. The Saints love to blitz. Cutler takes a lot of sacks and dances in the pocket, but he is smart about getting the ball to his best playmaker in Forte. Forte will be able to bust through the Saints’ defense and bail out Cutler for some major yards again this week.

Like I said before, it’s not that fun to draft Ichiro.  You know exactly what you’re getting.  (Or at least you used to know, before this season.) On the flip side, thinking about Jason Heyward’s upside gives us all visions of glory.

But when it comes to drafting running backs for your fantasy football team this year, save the “sleepers” for other positions.

Assuming you are in a 10 to 12 team league, or a fun weekly challenge game like FanDuel, and you have to start at least two running backs, it won’t be good enough to simply know which guys are in the top five.

Here are my top 25 running backs for 2011, along with some guys I think you should stay away from. The latter group is who we’ll start with.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: The “Stay-Aways”

• Mark Ingram – The Lockout will hinder rookies greatly this year.  The rookie running back slump continues, even though the kid has unreal talent.
• Joseph Addai – As a Colts fan, I think I speak for everyone else in Hoosier Country when I say, “You just can’t trust this guy.”
• All Other Colts’ Running Backs – If you need me to explain this one, you have probably never played fantasy football.
• Jonathan Stewart – Just a hunch, but I think the Panthers will try to justify spending a billion dollars on DeAngelo Williams…if only for this season.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Also a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to be high-flying, just like they were in their 18-1 season.  Expect a lot of passing, yards, and scoring…through the air.
• CJ Spiller – At this point, he’s destined to become a homeless man’s Devin Hester.  And in a league that no longer has kickoff returns, that isn’t a good thing.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – Eight steps beyond washed-up at this point.
• Daniel Thomas – See Ingram, Mark.
• Fred Jackson – I just don’t see the Bills leading a lot of games this year.  Their running game and Mr. Jackson will suffer.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #21-25

The boring guys who will win you games

• Marshawn Lynch
• Ryan Mathews
• Mike Tolbert
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Shonn Greene

Ironically, these guys are all pretty similar.  Most of them like to pound it inside and eat up short yardage situations.  Expect all of them to be able to punch it into the end zone for you as well.

Of these five, Greene has the most upside since the Jets will likely be good, but Sanchez will still struggle, causing them to rely heavily on their defense and running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #16-20

Your “all or nothing” guys…that will win you weeks, and break your heart.

• Jahvid Best
• Felix Jones
• Knowshon Moreno
• Ryan Grant
• LeGarrette Blount

These guys are all on the same level to me. 

Best intrigues me the most because I feel that he has the most raw talent of the bunch…but as we are all well-aware, his injury history will scare many away.

I really think this could be Knowshon Moreno’s breakout year, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up as a top seven running back…though the QB situation will make his job that much more difficult.

Beware of Ryan Grant.  The Packers’ RB was injured for most of last season, and he will come back hungry, ready to show everyone that he is, in fact, very important to his team’s success.  Also, it’s probably a safe bet that Green Bay will be winning a lot of games this year, and Grant will be benefactor #1.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #11-15

It’s just not fun taking them, but you can’t let them slide past you.

• DeAngelo Williams
• Frank Gore
• Matt Forte
• Steven Jackson
• Peyton Hillis

None of these guys will earn you high praise on draft night, but they will all give you an easy 1000 yards, 8 TDs, and receptions out of the backfield.  Again, the lockout will affect a lot of young guys, players on new teams, and players with new coaches.

While Williams, Gore, and Hillis are all playing for new coaches, they will definitely be one of the foundational elements that their coaches are hoping to build upon.  Gore, Forte, and Jackson are about as “Ichiro-esque” as you can get.  Barring injury, expect solid numbers from them across the board.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #10

I have to place him this high, but I’m scared to death of him myself.

• Michael Turner

It’s possible he’s past his prime.  It’s possible that all of the carries the past few years have killed his legs.  It’s possible that Atlanta will become more of a passing team this year.  It’s also possible he has one more year left in him.

This is all I know.  Someone will draft Michael Turner in your league this year, and it will either make, or break his team.  I am scared to death of him, but I also know he could have one more good year left in him, and I understand he could very well come back to bite me.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #8-9

“Old Reliables” that may not be so reliable.

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Rashard Mendenhall.

If healthy, both Jones-Drew and Mendenhall will easily be top-ten RBs.  Both of their teams love to grind it out, and both guys can do the job.  However, Mendenhall has had fumble issues in the past, and just how long can a guy as small as Mo-Joe stay healthy?

If it were me, and I drafted either of these guys early, I would take his backup late in the draft – especially if I had Mo-Jo, because I think Rashard Jennings could really surprise some people this year, if given the opportunity.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #6-7

The new kids on the McBlock.

• Darren McFadden
• LeSean McCoy

These two guys have more “home-run” ability than anyone besides Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and maybe Adrian Peterson.

McCoy will be playing in a high-powered offense that has surprisingly less weapons than you thought.  Seriously, they have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and…yeah you thought they had more, didn’t you?  Well, McCoy will surprise a lot of people this year that didn’t take notice before.  He is one of the smoothest runners in the game, and can also catch the ball out of the backfield.

McFadden, on the other hand, finally seemed to figure it out last year.  If he is finally putting the work in to match his unbelievable talent, the Raiders could have a top five fantasy player on their team, easily.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #4-5

Don’t be disappointed with these guys.

• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster

We have all been there.  We get the fourth pick in the draft, and we love three guys.  Obviously, those three guys go 1-2-3, and we are stuck fuming to ourselves for the next four picks.  On draft day, don’t be “disappointed” with Rice or Foster.

Sure, maybe the next three guys will have marginally better years, but the fact is that in most seasons the difference between guys 1-3 and 4-6 isn’t really that big.  Be happy with either of these guys, and then focus on building out the rest of your team.  Nobody has ever won a fantasy league with just one guy, but plenty have lost it by not concentrating for half of their draft.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #2-3

The enigmas

• Chris Johnson
• Jamaal Charles

I think these are the only two guys in the league that could rush for 2000 yards.  They could also both get injured or, in CJ’s case, randomly miss a lot of time because of contract issues.  Either way, if things go well, Charles and Johnson will make a LOT of fantasy owners happy with their home run ability coupled with their coach’s love for the running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #1

Old Faithful

• Adrian Peterson

In my opinion, he’s still the best in the biz.

This post and all of our weekly Chicago Bears previews are made possible by Brouwer Brothers Steamatic of Chicago, which proudly provides restoration, cleaning, and construction services to Chicago, Naperville and the surrounding areas.

Chicago: 312 386-7688 – South Suburbs: 708 396-1444 – West Suburbs: 630 243-4387 – NW Indiana: 219 210-4254

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It seems like a year has passed since these two teams had their first game back in Week 1, which featured one of the most devastating ways a team can lose a game.

On Sunday, the Detroit Lions(2-9) will try to avenge that Week 1 loss and steal a home-field victory over the surging Chicago Bears(8-3).

This is a totally different Bears team than what we saw in Week 1. The good Jay Cutler is suddenly outshining the bad Jay Cutler, and their running game is surging. In the past four games, Matt Forte is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, and that might be because of the offense’s focus on running the ball early on in the game.

Drew Stanton will stepping in at QB for the Lions after Shaun Hill suffered a finger injury Thanksgiving Day. He leads an offense that ranks 15th in the league. Stanton is their third-string quarterback, and he will likely look to Calvin Johnson early and often while hoping to get some production from the team’s struggling running game.

The Lions have the 6th ranked passing offense in the league, but their running game is a miserable 28th, averaging 84.9 yards per game. With the Bears 2nd ranked rush defense allowing 80.5 yards per game, the Lions are going to have to rely on Calvin Johnson and their defensive line if they are going to win this game.

Lions first round pick Ndamukong Suh is leading all rookies with eight sacks but faces a somewhat different offensive line than what he saw in week 1. The only addition to the line has been J’Marcus Webb. The rest have just been moved around. Still, the unit is performing better as of late.

The Bears look like rejuvenated team. The sacks are down. Cutler is beginning to find his way in the Martz system. And the defense is looking just as good, if not better, than in the 2006 Super Bowl season.

The offense isn’t putting up huge numbers, but they’re playing more effective football. And with a defense that only allows 15.6 points a game and that is ranked 4th in total defense, allowing only 300.2 total yards per game, the Lions 15th ranked offense, down to their third string QB, will have their hands full getting points on the scoreboard.

The Bears can’t afford to lose to a team like the Lions if they want to make the postseason and keep this momentum.

Even though it’s in Detroit, this Chicago has shown they are the real deal.

Bears-Lions Prediction: Bears win 24-10.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

• Bears-Lions Date: Sunday, December 5
• Bears-Lions Kickoff Time: 1:00
• Bears-Lions TV Network: FOX
• Bears-Lions Announcers: Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan
• Bears-Lions Point Spread: Bears -4.5
• Bears-Lions Over-Under Odds: 44

So what went wrong in Week 12? It would be easy to look at the tight end position, where I chose Vernon Davis over Kevin Boss. Davis proceeded to score three points, and I lost by four. Since Kevin Boss had 70+ yards and a TD, the winning production was sitting on the bench at that one spot.

But, just like the Buffalo Bills’ loss in Week 12 cannot be totally blamed on Stevie Johnson dropping that wide open TD pass, there were other positions that could have picked up the slack. Adrian Peterson was running wild before getting hurt and having to leave the game. Vincent Jackson, who I foolishly started in his first game back*, got hurt after two plays. Neither Mike Wallace nor Mike Thomas came anywhere close to the production they’d been getting recently.

* – One of my most trusted fantasy football principles has always been that I don’t start guys who are playing in their first game back after a long layoff. I prefer to wait for them to prove on the field that they are back, even it takes two or three weeks. I like seeing before I believe. Yet, here we are in Week 12, crunch time for all of us, and I recommend Sidney Rice as my WR start ‘em and then go with Vincent Jackson in the most critical week of my season in the Blogger Fantasy League. I failed myself and I failed you. I’m sorry. This is a great example of why having principles and sticking to them is so important. In Week 12, I was a doofus, and I cost us all.

Add it all up, and most of what could go wrong did go wrong, save for Eli, BenJarvus, and Dan Carpenter coming through huge. The real surprise is that I only lost by three points with this confluence of crap that occurred.

And with that, Week 12 is over. Thanks for letting me vent. It is time to turn our attention towards Week 13, and as I did last week, I will enlist your help later this week in setting my Week 13 roster.

Before we delve into the Week 13 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Adrian Peterson; Eli Manning
• Start em misses: Cleveland Browns D; Sidney Rice; Ben Watson
• Sit em hits: Terrell Owens; Dustin Keller; New England D
• Sit em misses: Fred Jackson; Michael Vick

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 13.

***Remember that Houston and Philadelphia play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (at Detroit)

You know I am predisposed to putting Jay Cutler in the sit ‘em category because I generally do not like him either as a QB or a person (based on what I know of his cocky ass anyway). So when you see that I am putting my faith in Cutler as my start ‘em QB, you know it’s pretty much a slam dunk.

Let’s discuss a few reasons why Cutler warrants this spot in Week 13.

First off, he’s been playing pretty well lately. Week 12 marked the third time in four games that Cutler has tossed multiple TDs. He is also doing an admirable job (based on his own low standards) of protecting the football. This shows that Cutler is getting more comfortable in Mike Martz’s system as the season goes along, and that his O-Line is making some (but just some) progress.

The second, and most important, reason why I like Cutler is his matchup. The Bears play the Lions in Week 12, the same Lions who gave up four TD passes to Tom Brady in Week 12. In addition to the Lions having a very generous secondary, Cutler has proven in the past that he can exploit it. Here are Cutler’s last three games against the Lions:

• Week 1, 2010: 372 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Week 4, 2009: 141 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INT
• Week 17, 2009: 276 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INT

That’s 8 TDs and just one pick in three games. With the Bears offense playing better and the Lions defense reeling right now, everything adds up to Cutler being a great Week 13 start.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 13 projection: 310 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Michael Vick faces Houston in Week 13 on Thursday night. Should be ’nuff said.
• Mark Sanchez is at New England and its questionable secondary. Sanchez has thrown 6 TDs over the last three games and New England will give ‘em up.
• Many people thought Eli Manning should be on their bench in Week 12 because of the rash of injuries in the Giants’ WR corps. All Manning did was throw for 200+ yards and 2 TDs. The guy has 23 TDs passes now! Respect earned. He has another solid matchup in Week 13 against Washington.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (at Minnesota)

Based on my Never Start Running Backs Facing Pittsburgh rule, I told you to sit Fred Jackson in Week 13. Proving that I walk the walk that I talk, I sat him myself in the leagues in which I own. Naturally, FJax then proceeded to rack up 163 total yards and a TD.

Fred, I get it now. You’re a must start. Every week. You didn’t need to rub it in!

I assume that you, my astute reader, understands that Fred Jackson is knocking on the door of top 10 running back status. Still, I list him here because I fear that people could see his matchup, at Minnesota, and be wary. The Vikings, after all, give up less than 100 yards rushing per game and have allowed just six rushing TDs this year. To that, I say this: Pittsburgh was giving up 63 yards rushing per game and had given up just four rushing TDs coming into Week 12…and we know what FJax did against that imposing unit.

Here is why I really love Fred Jackson, and why he is a must-must start in PPR leagues: he gets involved consistently in passing game. He had five catches (for 100+ yards) in Week 12, and this comes on the heels of him catching three, six, and five passes, respectively, over the previous three weeks.

Jackson has three straight games with at least 125+ yards and a TD. If you’re not comfortable starting him at this point, you are either too stubborn or have some really good RB options. Week 12 proved that, tough matchup or not, Fred Jackson is an every week play.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 95 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• Jamaal Charles continues to rack up yards (and finally got into the end zone!). I’ll continue to tell you to start him.
• Chris Johnson struggled in Week 12. I don’t care. Unless something comes out about an injury we weren’t aware of, you start him in Week 13 against Jacksonville. He could very well be the #1 overall player this week.
• Matt Forte had a great game against the Lions in Week 1. He should have another good one against them this week.
• Ray Rice faces Pittsburgh in Week 13, which is usually an automatic sit situation. The Steelers are not as quite as imposing nowadays due to injuries along their defensive front. Rice isn’t a slam dunk play, but I’d make sure you have some pretty good alternatives before you sit him.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to produce. Even against the Jets I say start him. In fact, with the Jets’ secondary likely to frustrate Tom Brady, I think Green-Ellis will be a big part of the gameplan.

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Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see my sit ‘em picks and QB and RB, as well as my start em, sit em picks and projections at WR, TE, and Defense.

Commenting is turned off here. Ask your questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

This week, I must regretfully inform you that I lost in Week 8, falling to 5-3 with a 14 point loss. The worst part? A win was sitting on my bench.

I wrestled all week with Fred Jackson versus BenJarvus Green-Ellis at my RB#2 slot. I finally settled on Jackson because he had gotten about the twice the number of touches as BJGE in weeks 6 and 7, and because the Chiefs had allowed five rushing TDs on the year against only three allowed by the Vikings.

I struggled with this choice right up until kickoff, but went with Jackson and ultimately felt good about it.

Then Week 8 played out, Jackson got only 75 total yards with no scores, and I watched The Lawfirm torch the Vikings for 100+ yards and two TDs. Needless to say, it was a painful and bitter pill to swallow.

But you know what? I don’t regret my decision. I analyzed it, weighed a number of factors, and went with the player I had the most confidence in. It wasn’t like I just forgot to set my rosters or was forced to make a shotgun decision at the final moment.

It’s fantasy football though, which means that every prediction we make is inherently unpredictable. We just make the best educated guesses we can and hope for the best. All of us do. Even the most astute fantasy player.

The key is to have a consistent strategy and use sound reasoning based in statistical fact. If you do that and a decision turns out wrong? Well, you lick your wounds, learn whatever you can from it, and then turn your attention towards next week. I can’t bring BenJarvus Green-Ellis onto my active roster for Week 8, but I certainly can do everything possible to make a better start/sit decision in Week 9.

And here’s hoping I can help you make better decisions as well.

Before we delve into Week 9, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 8 with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack.
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about last week. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 8 Recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Drew Brees, Ryan Torain; Washington D, Pierre Garcon (though not to the extreme I thought)
• Start ‘em misses: Kellen Winslow;
• Sit ‘em hits: Dallas D, Chris Ivory (and all Saints RBs), Matt Schaub
• Sit ‘em misses: Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker; Brandon Pettigrew

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, and Redskins are on bye in Week 9.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Seattle)

Yes, I’m a little nervous about this because Seattle’s D is typically much better at home than on the road. However, the Seahawks were giving up 260+ passing yards per game coming into Week 8 before allowing Jason Campbell to look like a good NFL quarterback – 310 yards, 2 TDs.

While it’s true that Eli Manning can be inconsistent and will throw interceptions, he also has thrown 9 touchdowns over the last three weeks (against 5 INTs) and has one of the best WR corps in the NFL. With the Giants now running well behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it is opening their passing game even more. With a lot of QBs on bye this week, Eli is certainly a top 10 option.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Philip Rivers is facing Houston. You do the math. It computes whether he has any healthy WRs or not.
• Aaron Rodgers may have struggled mightily against the Jets last week, but did you see what David Garrard did to Dallas? Make sure you keep ARodg in your lineup.
• Joe Flacco, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs over the last two weeks, is a very good option against the Miami Dolphins.
• Chad Henne is clearly going to keep throwing. You could do a lot worse than Henne against Baltimore, as I outlined in this week’s waiver wire sleeper article.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em QB: Matthew Stafford, Detroit (v New York Jets)

Matthew Stafford returned from injury in a big way in Week 8. He torched the Washington Redskins for 200+ yards and 4 TDs, against only one INT. Naturally, Calvin Johnson was a huge beneficiary of Stafford’s return.

However, while I like Stafford a lot long term, this week I am not too high on him with the Jets’ now-healthy secondary coming to town. Remember, Washington entered Week 8 31st in the NFL against the pass, so Stafford’s solid day shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise.

In Week 8, Darrelle Revis and the Jets held Aaron Rodgers to at 15-34 day and only 170 yards. At this point in their careers, Rodgers is a much better player than Stafford. And while the Jets statistically have not been dominant against opposing QBs this season, they also haven’t been fully healthy. It appears like now they are.

Stafford is going to have plenty of good games over the balance of the season. Week 9 just won’t be one of them.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 9 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Mark Sanchez played awful in Week 1, then got hot over the next few weeks, and has seemingly regressed again recently. You have to sit him until he proves he can produce consistently again.
• Carson Palmer has a QB rating of 78 against the Steelers during his career. He didn’t play well last week against Miami, with one of his TD passes being an absolute gift. I don’t like him this week.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick did not play terribly Week 8, but after four straight weeks of at least two TD passes, his numbers against KC were a bit underwhelming. Facing the Bears (who have given up only 4 TD passes all season) in Week 9 means Fitz will likely be underwhelming again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em RB: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at Buffalo)

This one really isn’t hard. The Bears are struggling to protect Jay Cutler and the Bills are the worst team in the NFL against the run. In case you needed the Bills’ defensive deficiencies to be reiterated, the Chiefs top two backs ran 41 times for 254 yards. So…start your running backs when they’re playing the Bills.

Regarding Forte specifically, he’s only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he only has 3 rushing TDs, but the Bills give up 5+ yards per carry. Average those out and I think we can reasonably expect Forte to average around 4.5 yards per carry. The bonus with Forte is that he catches passes. He’s added 3 receiving TDs this year to go along with 26 catches and 300+ yards.

All in all, this is the kind of week you have Forte for. The Bears will undoubtedly ride him in a must-win game, and the matchup suggests he’ll produce.

Matt Forte fantasy football Week 9 projection: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 40 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• I mentioned LeGarrette Blount in the sleeper picks article this week. Against a so-so Atlanta run D, he needs to be in your lineup this week if you have a starter on bye.
• Darren McFadden is facing the very solid KC defense, but he went over 100 yards for the second straight week in Week 8. He plays.
• Seattle has a very good run defense, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both playing very well right now. Bradshaw is a definite must-start, and Jacobs’ ability find the end zone makes him a solid flex option too.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a great outing in Week 8 and now deserves to start every week. Danny Woodhead found his way into the end zone again and is valuable as well.

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Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see who my sit ‘em RB is, as well as my start/sit picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note: The comment section is disabled here. But head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to ask all your lineup-specific questions for Week 9.

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

If I’m a Tony Romo owner, and I am in one keeper league, I am both encouraged and concerned by what I saw last night.

I’m encouraged because Miles Austin looks as good as ever, Dez Bryant is talented and involved in the gameplan, and Roy Williams actually made a tough catch before getting drilled. I’m concerned, however, because the Cowboys’ offensive line is awful and they are inept once they get in the red zone. And if I had to weigh the two feelings, I’m probably a little more concerned than encouraged.

How can you not be encouraged by Matt Forte‘s first day in Mike Martz’s system? Not only did Forte get 17 carries (which he could only turn into 50 yards thanks to his porous O-Line) but he also caught 7 passes for 151 yards and 2 TDs. And while Forte has historically owned the Lions, I don’t think Week 1 was a fluke.

See what I mean about C.J. Spiller being hit or miss? Incredibly Spiller accounted for only 14 total yards and still came close to fellow rookie Jahvid Best’s total for Detroit. The difference is that Best was able to score on two short TD runs, which is why I’ve liked Best’s value more as a weekly start. He won’t be as explosive, and you cannot count on two TDs or even one every week, but Best will get more such opportunities because the Lions’ offense is better (especially once Matthew Stafford returns).

To read the rest of Jerod’s Monday Morning Observations, including his thoughts on Michael Vick, Steve Breaston, and many, many more, head on over to MSF Fantasy Sports.

After a whole week of the coaches and players professing that they were going to come out against Oakland a better and improved team than how they played last week against San Diego, the Bears failed miserably to meet those expectations in a 32-17 loss.

Once again the offensive line seems to be the main culprit in the Bears’ poorly played preseason games. Jay Cutler was sacked five times, 4 by defensive lineman Kamerion Wimbley, in just two quarters. Chris Williams was atrocious and has Orlando Pace and bust written all over him.

Jay Cutler threw for 99 yards and posted a 90.7 passer rating. He also found wide receiver, Johnny Knox, for 22 yard touchdown strike.

Cutler’s performance today just gives me more of a reason to think this kid is a pretty good quarterback if he isn’t being chased all the time by a terrible offensive line. He’s not as bad as everybody holds him out to be.

Given ample time to think, Cutler can make plays happen. He has great chemistry with his receivers, there’s no doubt about that, but thinking about trying to run away from a charging defender makes it a little hard to spot that open receiver.

Another bright spot on the offensive side was Matt Forte.

Forte had 5 carries for 109 yards, including an 89 yard touchdown run. I have always liked Forte, though I find him a little overrated; but with performances like this he wins back a little respect from me, giving me the hope he can be a great running back that the Bears heavily need.

On the defensive spectrum the secondary struggled. The pressure on the quarterback from the Bears’ front seven was almost non-existent except for a sack by Julius Peppers.

The Raiders’ starters converted 5 out of their 10 third-downs. The Bears allowed completions of 27, 40, 24,and 18 yards in the first half.

Bears’ starters allowed 211 total yards of offense.

Looking at all these numbers it’s very easy to see why the Bears lost by so much. It was a terrible game to watch if you were a Bears’ fan, but it is only a preseason so take it as you will. With two poor performances now however, and with no signs of improvement to areas that heavily need some, things can’t be looking too positive right now for the Bears.

The season is closing in faster than you think. There remain only two more preseason games left, and there are still plenty of spots to be improved on, but history has told us preseason games is not always a precursor to what the regular season will show. (Remember went the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason and then 0-16 in the regular season?)

So what do you think?

Does the Bears having a poor preseason mean the regular season will go just as badly?