So what went wrong in Week 12? It would be easy to look at the tight end position, where I chose Vernon Davis over Kevin Boss. Davis proceeded to score three points, and I lost by four. Since Kevin Boss had 70+ yards and a TD, the winning production was sitting on the bench at that one spot.

But, just like the Buffalo Bills’ loss in Week 12 cannot be totally blamed on Stevie Johnson dropping that wide open TD pass, there were other positions that could have picked up the slack. Adrian Peterson was running wild before getting hurt and having to leave the game. Vincent Jackson, who I foolishly started in his first game back*, got hurt after two plays. Neither Mike Wallace nor Mike Thomas came anywhere close to the production they’d been getting recently.

* – One of my most trusted fantasy football principles has always been that I don’t start guys who are playing in their first game back after a long layoff. I prefer to wait for them to prove on the field that they are back, even it takes two or three weeks. I like seeing before I believe. Yet, here we are in Week 12, crunch time for all of us, and I recommend Sidney Rice as my WR start ‘em and then go with Vincent Jackson in the most critical week of my season in the Blogger Fantasy League. I failed myself and I failed you. I’m sorry. This is a great example of why having principles and sticking to them is so important. In Week 12, I was a doofus, and I cost us all.

Add it all up, and most of what could go wrong did go wrong, save for Eli, BenJarvus, and Dan Carpenter coming through huge. The real surprise is that I only lost by three points with this confluence of crap that occurred.

And with that, Week 12 is over. Thanks for letting me vent. It is time to turn our attention towards Week 13, and as I did last week, I will enlist your help later this week in setting my Week 13 roster.

Before we delve into the Week 13 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 12 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Adrian Peterson; Eli Manning
• Start em misses: Cleveland Browns D; Sidney Rice; Ben Watson
• Sit em hits: Terrell Owens; Dustin Keller; New England D
• Sit em misses: Fred Jackson; Michael Vick

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 13.

***Remember that Houston and Philadelphia play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (at Detroit)

You know I am predisposed to putting Jay Cutler in the sit ‘em category because I generally do not like him either as a QB or a person (based on what I know of his cocky ass anyway). So when you see that I am putting my faith in Cutler as my start ‘em QB, you know it’s pretty much a slam dunk.

Let’s discuss a few reasons why Cutler warrants this spot in Week 13.

First off, he’s been playing pretty well lately. Week 12 marked the third time in four games that Cutler has tossed multiple TDs. He is also doing an admirable job (based on his own low standards) of protecting the football. This shows that Cutler is getting more comfortable in Mike Martz’s system as the season goes along, and that his O-Line is making some (but just some) progress.

The second, and most important, reason why I like Cutler is his matchup. The Bears play the Lions in Week 12, the same Lions who gave up four TD passes to Tom Brady in Week 12. In addition to the Lions having a very generous secondary, Cutler has proven in the past that he can exploit it. Here are Cutler’s last three games against the Lions:

• Week 1, 2010: 372 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Week 4, 2009: 141 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INT
• Week 17, 2009: 276 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INT

That’s 8 TDs and just one pick in three games. With the Bears offense playing better and the Lions defense reeling right now, everything adds up to Cutler being a great Week 13 start.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 13 projection: 310 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 13:

• Michael Vick faces Houston in Week 13 on Thursday night. Should be ’nuff said.
• Mark Sanchez is at New England and its questionable secondary. Sanchez has thrown 6 TDs over the last three games and New England will give ‘em up.
• Many people thought Eli Manning should be on their bench in Week 12 because of the rash of injuries in the Giants’ WR corps. All Manning did was throw for 200+ yards and 2 TDs. The guy has 23 TDs passes now! Respect earned. He has another solid matchup in Week 13 against Washington.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (at Minnesota)

Based on my Never Start Running Backs Facing Pittsburgh rule, I told you to sit Fred Jackson in Week 13. Proving that I walk the walk that I talk, I sat him myself in the leagues in which I own. Naturally, FJax then proceeded to rack up 163 total yards and a TD.

Fred, I get it now. You’re a must start. Every week. You didn’t need to rub it in!

I assume that you, my astute reader, understands that Fred Jackson is knocking on the door of top 10 running back status. Still, I list him here because I fear that people could see his matchup, at Minnesota, and be wary. The Vikings, after all, give up less than 100 yards rushing per game and have allowed just six rushing TDs this year. To that, I say this: Pittsburgh was giving up 63 yards rushing per game and had given up just four rushing TDs coming into Week 12…and we know what FJax did against that imposing unit.

Here is why I really love Fred Jackson, and why he is a must-must start in PPR leagues: he gets involved consistently in passing game. He had five catches (for 100+ yards) in Week 12, and this comes on the heels of him catching three, six, and five passes, respectively, over the previous three weeks.

Jackson has three straight games with at least 125+ yards and a TD. If you’re not comfortable starting him at this point, you are either too stubborn or have some really good RB options. Week 12 proved that, tough matchup or not, Fred Jackson is an every week play.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 13 projection: 95 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 13:

• Jamaal Charles continues to rack up yards (and finally got into the end zone!). I’ll continue to tell you to start him.
• Chris Johnson struggled in Week 12. I don’t care. Unless something comes out about an injury we weren’t aware of, you start him in Week 13 against Jacksonville. He could very well be the #1 overall player this week.
• Matt Forte had a great game against the Lions in Week 1. He should have another good one against them this week.
• Ray Rice faces Pittsburgh in Week 13, which is usually an automatic sit situation. The Steelers are not as quite as imposing nowadays due to injuries along their defensive front. Rice isn’t a slam dunk play, but I’d make sure you have some pretty good alternatives before you sit him.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to produce. Even against the Jets I say start him. In fact, with the Jets’ secondary likely to frustrate Tom Brady, I think Green-Ellis will be a big part of the gameplan.

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Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see my sit ‘em picks and QB and RB, as well as my start em, sit em picks and projections at WR, TE, and Defense.

Commenting is turned off here. Ask your questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Since July 1st, the Chicago White Sox are basically a .500 team. Look at the numbers. After tonight’s loss to the Red Sox (which dropped us to a half game behind the Twins) we are now 17-16 since the beginning of July. This is not good. And remember earlier in the season when Ozzie Guillen was ripping the offense in the press and our pitching staff was carrying us to respectability? My, my…how the tables have turned.

I remember watching an ESPN game that I am pretty sure was against the Cubs and hearing the oracle of baseball wisdom Joe Morgan (please note the heavy sarcasm) say that our bullpen was one of the best he’d ever seen. Granted, our bullpen was dominating at the time…but the best he’d ever seen? Really Joe? Well, pretty much since that point our pitching staff’s performance, especially the bullpen, has taken a nosedive.

Consider the following statistics, from the last 30 days:

RP Matt Thornton – 5.23 ERA (but 10K/3BB)
RP Octavio Dotel – 5.19 ERA (12K/4BB)
RP Andrew Russell – 7.88 ERA
RP Nick Masset – 12.00 ERA (traded since…replaced by a guy named Ehren Wasserman who has been barely serviceable. Ehren? Even my name looks like it’s spelled normally compared to his!)

And drumroll please…

RP Boone Logan (left) – 18.78 ERA (9K/6B), 23 hits in 7.2 innings

Bobby Jenks, of course, has an ERA of 2.00 in the last month is 5-5 in save opportunities. The problem is that he only has 5 save chances in the whole month! (Yes…I realize he was hurt for part of the time, but still.)

These are not the stats of the “greatest bullpen ever” or even a playoff bullpen. We have to get this figured out. Boone Logan simply cannot be trusted right now. Thornton and Dotel actually have decent numbers other than their ERA, so I don’t feel so badly about those guys. We’ve just given up too many hits, pitched poorly with men on base, and given up a few too many homers. Once we get Linebrink back, I feel good about Thornton-Dotel-Linebrink-Jenks. But we need one or two other guys to step up.

The same is true with the starting pitching staff. Look at these hideous numbers:
Javier Vazquez – 5.33 ERA (24K/10B/28H)
Gavin Floyd – 5.47 ERA (20K/16B/31H)
John Danks – 5.65 ERA (26K/5B/36H)
Mark Beuhrle – 4.99 ERA (17K/5BB/36H)
And Clayton Richard has just been awful in place of Jose Contreras, who was awful before he got hurt.

Beuhrle hasn’t actually been that bad, he just had one awful outing, but has otherwise been lights out since a horrible start to the season. And Danks is simply giving up too many hits, but his K/BB is a positive sign moving forward.

If we are going to win the Central, however…and we are…Javier Vazquez and Gavin Floyd simply have to pitch better. I hate to say it, but I do not have faith in either guy to pitch well in a big spot right now. KVB and I discussed this way back in May when Gavin Floyd took a no hitter deep into the game against Detroit (the first time). His facial expressions and body language just do not inspire confidence in me. He always looks like he’s either scared to death or constipated, neither of which is conducive to success against major league hitting.

I will now completely and knowingly contradict myself by saying I have faith in them to pick it up and pitch well down the stretch…but I’d really like to see them start to prove me right. We don’t have much more time to wait for them to get it going.

Now contrast our awful pitching recently with our hitting, which has been outstanding:

AL MVP Carlos Quentin – .340, 10 HR, 23 RBI, batting 1.000 in the clutch
Jermaine Dye – .301, 6 HR, 17 RBI
Alexei Ramirez – .323, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB
Orlando Cabrera – .289, .351 OBP, 4 SB
Even Jim Thome – .313, 7 HR, 21 RBI

And guys like Dirty 30, Paulie, A.J., and Juan Uribe have all delivered in clutch situations. We’re hitting fine. And I have a feeling that Paulie is about to get hot, which will only help things. Griffey? Who knows. I think his mere presence means more than anything, and having a lefthanded power bat gives Ozzie some flexibility with the lineup.

The whole point of this post is that while the Sox are ½ game out in the Central, and one back in the loss column for the Wild Card, we have not played like a playoff team recently. But there is another World Champion inside this clubhouse. We’ve proven that we can pitch well. And we’ve proven that we can hit. We just need to put it together. I have a tremendous amount of faith in Ozzie to push the right buttons down the stretch and not only get us into the playoffs, but to have us ready to do something once we get there.

AL MVP Carlos Quentin, Mark Buerhle, and Bobby Jenks will lead this team. J.D., John Danks, and the other veterans on offense will provide consistent support. The keys down the stretch are going to be Javier Vazquez, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, and Octavio Dotel. If those four pitch at or near their capabilities, we will simply outlast the Twins and have a great shot to go deep into October. If those guys continue to pitch at the subpar level they have been at this month, we’re going to be in trouble.

My picks to click for the rest of the season? Javier Vazquez, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, and Octavio Dotel. The good guys are going deep into October this season, and this little cold spell hasn’t shaken my faith.

Don’t stop believing…

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Photo Credits:

Gavin Floyd picture courtesy of The Bleacher Report.

Joe Morgan picture courtesy of this site.

Boone Logan picture courtesy of Foul Balls.

Carlos Quentin picture courtesy of FoxSports.