Wednesday night featured a pair of great rivalry games, as Syracuse outlasted Georgetown in overtime and Austin Rivers capped off an impressive Duke comeback with a buzzer-beating three-pointer to win at the Dean Dome.  Throw in Murray State falling from the ranks of the unbeaten on Thursday night, and it’s been a solid week of basketball.

That action provides a nice springboard into a Saturday schedule that is shaping up to be even better.  Baylor-Missouri, Michigan State-Ohio State, Virginia-North Carolina, San Diego State-UNLV, and Wichita State-Creighton are just a handful of the intriguing matchups scheduled for the weekend.

But before you settle in for a weekend on the couch, here’s a look at this week’s risers and fallers in the world of college basketball.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Arizona

The Wildcats followed up road wins over Cal and Stanford by taking care of Colorado at home on Thursday night.  With Washington getting crushed at Oregon, the door is open for Arizona to be the Pac-12′s second tournament team.

While a talented group of freshmen were talked about prior to the season, veterans Kyle Fogg, Solomon Hill, and Jesse Perry have led Arizona’s recent resurgence.  Fogg poured in 23 at Cal, while Hill posted 20 points and 17 boards against Colorado this week.

The remaining schedule isn’t too daunting for the Wildcats, and if they can manage to win at Washington next weekend, they have a shot to finish 14-4 in the league.

Louisville

Monday’s 21-point win over UConn was Louisville’s fifth straight, as the Cardinals have quietly climbed the Big East standings in recent weeks.  Sophomore big man Gorgui Dieng has played well during that winning streak with 59 points, 51 boards, and 19 blocks over the last five games.

They also got news this week that highly regarded freshman Wayne Blackshear was cleared to play after missing the first few months of the season with a shoulder injury.  If healthy, he gives them another perimeter scorer and would allow Rick Pitino to expand his rotation a bit.

The Cardinals will use all the help they can get with three of their next four on the road, starting with Saturday at West Virginia followed by a home date with Syracuse on Big Monday.

Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes followed up Sunday’s critical overtime win at Duke with a win over Virginia Tech, which extended their winning streak to five.  The Duke win moved them into the RPI Top 40, and the committee will have to take into account the fact that four of the team’s seven losses came without Reggie Johnson and DeQuan Jones.

Jones is a nice complementary piece, but Johnson is a game-changer.  He  scored 27 points and grabbed 12 boards against Duke and had 15 points, seven rebounds, and four assists versus the Hokies.  The guard play has been solid as expected, while Florida transfer Kenny Kadji has been a revelation at power forward.

The next two games give Miami chances at additional signature wins, as they travel to Florida State on Saturday before hosting North Carolina next week.

Notre Dame

I wrote about the Irish a couple weeks ago, but they certainly have earned additional accolades.  They have now won five straight, including three road wins and three victories over ranked teams.

Notre Dame struggled from long range for most of the game against West Virginia, but they buried three straight threes late to pick up a win in Morgantown.  Jack Cooley had 21 points and 12 boards against the Mountaineers, and he now has five double-doubles in Big East play.  Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant have continued their solid play in the backcourt, and the defense has been terrific with four of the last five foes scoring 0.95 points per possession or less.

The Irish host DePaul and Rutgers in their next two games, and a 14-4 conference record is not out of the question.

Temple

While most of the teams in the Atlantic 10 are beating up on each other, the Owls have reeled off seven straight wins and are currently atop the standings.

The return of big man Micheal Eric has helped them defensively as well as on the glass, and the duo of Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt are averaging a combined 34.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 3.2 steals.  Both guys can shoot it well from beyond the arc, but both have also attempted over 100 free throws so far this year.

Temple’s next six games are against Top 100 teams, starting with Saturday night’s home game versus Xavier.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Arkansas

Wins over Mississippi State, Michigan, and Vanderbilt are terrific, but Arkansas won’t make the tournament if they can’t find a way to win on the road.  They have missed golden opportunities in their last two games, losing by six at LSU and getting steamrolled by 22 against a subpar Georgia team.

The fact that the Hogs are even in the NCAA discussion is impressive since Marshawn Powell played just two games before injury cut short his season, and young players like B.J. Young have a bright future.  That said, the opportunity to go dancing is there, but Arkansas needs to play well down the stretch.

Their best chance at a road win is at Auburn, and they also have home games against Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi.

Baylor

The Bears land here not just because they lost to Kansas at home, but moreso they way they lost.  After jumping out to an early lead, poor defense allowed the Jayhawks to rip off a 43-12 run.  They also made Jeff Withey look like an All-American with 25 points, and once again they played like a team that is mentally fragile and lacks toughness.

Scott Drew has done very little to make people more comfortable with his ability to make adjustments, and it’s tough to envision a scenario where Baylor goes into Missouri and wins on Saturday.  From a pure talent standpoint, very few teams can stack up with the Bears, but right now they serve only as further proof that talent alone isn’t enough.

Creighton

After reeling off 11 straight wins, the Bluejays have now dropped two straight to fall into second place in the Missouri Valley.  Admittedly, both losses came on the road, one on a three at the buzzer against Northern Iowa and the other by eight points at Evansville.

The Creighton defense allowed 1.08 points per possession in each game, and while that isn’t exactly impressive, this team will never be mistaken for an elite defensive squad.  However, their offensive production has also dipped in those games with 1.03 ppp against UNI and 0.95 versus Evansville.  Those are the lowest numbers they have posted since late December, and the 0.95 is a season low.

Saturday’s game against Wichita State was already important, but the Bluejays can ill afford to fall two games back of the Shockers in the MVC race.  A tournament berth isn’t in question, but these losses have definitely hurt their seed and their potential to play close to home in the first round.

Illinois

Since beating Ohio State, the Illini have lost five of six with the lone win coming in an ugly 42-41 game against Michigan State.  For much of the season, offense was a concern for Bruce Weber’s team, as they had scored over 1.00 ppp in just one of their first nine league games.

However, that has turned around in the past two games, but that improvement has been accompanied by their two worst defensive performances of the year.  Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard have both played well of late, but this team lacks reliable depth and doesn’t have a lot of confidence right now.

The fact that Illinois has four Top 50 wins definitely helps their tournament case, but the upcoming schedule doesn’t do them any favors.  The Illini have road games left against Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin as well as a home date with the Wolverines.

West Virginia

The Mountaineers have now lost four of their last five games, and their last two wins have come in overtime against Cincinnati and Providence, both of whom were in position to win those games late.

The defense has really struggled recently, as their last five opponents have all scored at least 1.07 ppp.  To put that in perspective, that happened just four times in their first 20 contests.  On the positive side, Kevin Jones has continued his outstanding play and is now averaging 20.6 points and 11.2 rebounds.

West Virginia’s next four games are brutal, starting with Saturday’s home game with Louisville.  They follow that up with road trips to Pitt and Notre Dame before returning home to face Marquette.

So after another unpredictable week of college hoops, here are five teams on the rise and five teams on the decline.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Alabama

After dropping three of four, the Tide have now won five straight.  The wins are nice, but the most encouraging sign for Alabama is that their offense has been significantly more efficient over that stretch, scoring at least 1.10 points per possession in each of the last five games.  To put that in context, they hit that mark just three times in their first 12 games.

Guard Travis Releford has been terrific during that stretch, averaging 17.2 points.  Backcourt mate Trevor Lacey has played well during their winning streak as well, and the team got a rather unexpected boost by getting Andrew Steele back after fears that concussions may have ended his career.  He’s not going to score a ton of points but gives them another experienced and capable player in the backcourt to go with the dynamic duo of JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell up front.

We’ll find out a lot more about this team over their next three games when the travel to Mississippi State, take on Vanderbilt at home, and head to Kentucky.

Baylor

As I wrote earlier this week at Run The Floor, it’s time to start talking about the Bears as one of the elite teams this season, and the tempo-free numbers back that up.  On Tuesday, they picked up arguably the best road win of the college basketball season when they pulled out a victory against Kansas State in the Octagon of Doom.  For all of their offensive talent, Baylor has been terrific on defense as well, allowing just three teams to score over 0.94 points per possession.

Pierre Jackson, who dished out 11 assists against the Wildcats, has been a difference maker at the point, and his ability to make shots and spectacular plays helps to offset his high turnover rate.  Brady Heslip gives the team an elite long-range shooter, and Perry Jones III is a sure-fire lottery pick.  But to me, Quincy Acy is the team’s most important player.  He is a phenomenal rebounder and shot-blocker, and he’s molded himself into one of the most efficient players in the country.  And he can still throw down some filthy dunks.

Baylor faces Oklahoma this weekend then takes on fellow Big 12 contenders Kansas and Missouri next week, both of which should be great matchups.

Illinois

It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Illini have a 4-1 record in the Big Ten after beating Minnesota in double OT, Northwestern by one, and Nebraska by five before Tuesday’s upset of Ohio State.

In that game, Brandon Paul went off for 43 points and hit a ridiculous three-pointer and subsequently swatted Jared Sullinger to put the dagger in the Buckeyes.  Given Paul’s efficiency numbers coming into that game, it’s unfair to significantly heighten expectations for him.

The team has been getting solid play from Joseph Bertrand to help pick up the scoring slack for starting guard Sam Maniscalco, who has missed the last three games due to injury.  With sophomore big man Meyers Leonard continuing to impress, Illinois needs to focus on getting him more touches inside.  Quality depth is still an issue due to their youth, but the Ohio State win gives them a much-needed shot of confidence they can build on.

Saint Mary’s

In what has become one of the more intense rivalries going, the Gaels pounded Gonzaga late Thursday night, winning by 21 points despite getting just two points from Rob Jones who led Saint Mary’s in scoring coming into the game.  Matthew Dellavedova was fantastic, scoring 26 points and dishing out six assists compared to just one turnover.

The Gaels have now won six straight and 14 of their last 15 with the lone loss during that stretch coming against Baylor.  Parts of that scheduled haven’t been particularly challenging, but they are now 5-0 in the WCC with wins over BYU and Gonzaga, who were expected to be the other squads at the top of the league.

Randy Bennett has nine players averaging at least 11 minutes, and while Jones and Dellavedova carry a lot of the scoring burden, there are a number of other able contributors on the roster.  Overall, the team ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and for a team that takes over 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, they actually rank second in two-point shooting.  Defense is a potential concern, but teams with elite point guards are dangerous in March, and Dellavedova is one of the nation’s best.

Vanderbilt

After losing to Indiana State to fall to 6-4, the Commodores were universally considered the biggest flop in college basketball.  They have since won six straight games and have quietly re-established themselves as a contender to be the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.

Their most impressive performance during that stretch was a dominant road win at Marquette where Vandy jumped out early and never looked back.  The offense has been fantastic, scoring at least 1.06 points per possession in all six games and scoring at least 1.12 ppp in five of them.  The defense has also improved, and the Commodores still haven’t gotten a ton out of big man Festus Ezeli who is still working through knee issues.  Sharpshooter John Jenkins has been on fire lately, averaging 19.5 points and hitting 28-of-52 (53.8 percent) of his three-pointers during the six-game winning streak.

After facing Georgia at home over the weekend, Vandy goes to Alabama next Thursday in a game that will pit their prolific offense against the Tide’s stifling defense.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Louisville

It’s hard to kill the Cardinals for losing to Georgetown and Kentucky, and even a double overtime loss to Notre Dame can be chalked up to an off night.  But losing by 31 points and essentially giving up against Providence is simply not something a Top 20 team does.

Most everyone would agree that Louisville was overrated when they were in the Top 10, but they have now dropped four of their last five heading into Saturday’s game against DePaul, who they will apparently face without Kyle Kuric, who has an ankle injury.

Outside of the Providence game, the Cardinals have been consistent on defense, but offensive efficiency is another matter.  The team doesn’t shoot well, particularly from three-point range, and they have struggled with turnovers at times.  And while injuries have certainly played a factor, Louisville needs to find answers on the offense end or the Providence game won’t be the last head-scratching loss.

LSU

After their surprising win over Marquette, the Tigers moved their way into the at-large discussion and had people thinking that maybe they had been overlooked.  Since that game, they have lost to Virginia and Alabama while not beating anyone of note.  Those losses aren’t even in the neighborhood of LSU’s earlier losses to Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, but at some point the Tigers have to prove the win over Marquette wasn’t a fluke if they are truly to be taken seriously, particularly with those bad losses already on their profile.

Over their next nine games, LSU faces Mississippi State twice, goes on the road to Florida and Vandy, plays Kentucky and Alabama at home, and heads to Arkansas this weekend, where the Hogs hung 98 on Mississippi State last Saturday night.

The Tigers have been relatively impressive on defense, but I’m not convince they can do enough on offense to win even two of those seven games.  And if I’m right, you can scratch them off the list of potential tournament teams.

North Carolina State

Heading into Wednesday night’s game with Georgia Tech, NC State’s chances at a potential NCAA bid were tenuous.  After losing to the Jackets by 11 at home, I can’t see anyone projecting them to be in the field.

With the ACC down this year, there just isn’t much margin for error for the teams in the middle of the pack.  To be fair, I don’t think anyone expected NC State to even be in the mix for a bid in Mark Gottfried’s first season at the helm, but the opportunity is definitely there.  However, their lone quality win came against a Texas team that is also on the bubble, and their defense has been poor at best against the better teams on their schedule.

There is definitely talent on the roster with guys like C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell among five players scoring at least 12 points per game, but there simply isn’t much depth on the roster.  They can’t afford to lose either of their next two games against Wake Forest and Boston College, which lead into road games against Miami and UNC before a home date with Virginia.  Their schedule down the stretch is also tough, but that won’t matter as much if they can’t add a couple quality wins over the next couple weeks.

Saint Louis

At 12-1, the Billikens were one of the pleasant surprises in college hoops, but they’ve since dropped three of their last four.  All three defeats came at the hands of potential tournament teams, and two of them were on the road.  That said, earlier wins against Washington and Villanova don’t look as impressive as they did at the time, and Saint Louis doesn’t have any wins against teams that would be in the field of 68 if the tournament started today.

Luckily for them, the A-10 is pretty deep this year and provides a number of opportunities to pick up quality wins.  Consequently, the Billikens need to hold serve against the lesser teams in the league and then play well in their two games against Xavier and also at home against Dayton and on the road versus Saint Joseph’s.  In fact, they may need to win three of those four games to make a more compelling case for a bid.

Virginia Tech

Everyone’s favorite bubble team is at it again.  First they dropped a road game against Wake Forest on Saturday to pick up their first bad loss of the season, and then they lost at home to Florida State in a game featuring two bubble teams.  At this point, their best wins are a pair of victories over an Oklahoma State team with virtually no shot of dancing in March.

The Hokies have struggled to get consistent production from their players inside, and their defensive efficiency has dropped off compared to last season.

Following Saturday’s game against Boston College, Va Tech faces a difficult stretch of games featuring home dates with North Carolina, BYU, and Duke along with road trips to Virginia and Maryland, who is playing better of late.  If they can’t pick up some signature wins during that stretch, they won’t have to worry about sweating things out on Selection Sunday.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

College Basketball Power Rankings

1. Syracuse (12-0, Last Week: 1)

The Orange passed their first road test with a 16-point win at North Carolina State led by another big game from Dion Waiters, who scored 22 points off the bench.  Few (if any) teams in the nation can rival their depth, and they have ratcheted up the defensive intensity, as evidenced by the third best turnover rate and top-ranked steal percentage in the country.

2. Ohio State (11-1, Last Week: 2)

Jared Sullinger suffered a foot injury against South Carolina, but DeShaun Thomas came to the rescue with a career-high 30 points.  He now has 89 points over his last four games, hitting 36-of-57 (63.2%) from the field and 10-of-21 (47.6%) from three-point range during that span.

Image credit:  Jim Davidson the-Ozone.net

Sullinger returned for OSU’s game against Lamar, but the Buckeyes’ next big test won’t come until a New Year’s Eve trip to Bloomington.

3. Kentucky (10-1, Last Week: 3)

The Wildcats blew out Chattanooga and Samford in their first games since losing to Indiana, but forward Terrence Jones dislocated his pinky and missed the Samford contest.  Doron Lamb tallied 50 points in the two victories, but they’ll need Jones on New Year’s Eve when they host Louisville.

4. North Carolina (10-2, Last Week: 4)

Appalachian State and Nicholls State were sacrifical lambs for the Heels during the last week, with Tyler Zeller going off for 31 points against the Mountaineers.  UNC takes on Texas on Wednesday but should enter ACC play at 13-2 based on their remaining non-conference schedule.

5. Louisville (11-0, Last Week: 5)

The Cardinals won a track meet against Memphis and came used a late flurry against College of Charleston to move to 11-0.  Against the Tigers, seven Louisville players scored in double figures, led by Russ Smith with 24 and Gorgui Dieng with 14 points, 14 rebounds, and six blocks.  Kyle Kuric was the hero against the Cougars, as his play in the middle of the Charleston zone was the difference in the game.  Freshman Kevin Ware has joined the squad, and the team is getting closer to being at full strength, which is good news with games against Georgetown and Kentucky before the end of the month.

6. Duke (10-1, Last Week: 6)

After crushing UNC Greensboro, the Blue Devils are off until a December 30th date with Western Michigan.  Mason Plumlee posted 15 points and 13 boards in the victory, which was his fifth straight game in double figures and his third double-double over that span.

7. Baylor (10-0, Last Week: 7)

The Bears picked up a huge road win at BYU on Saturday.  Perry Jones III was dominant with 28 points and eight boards, while Brady Heslip canned six three-pointers and 5-foot-10 Pierre Jackson secured the win with a huge block in the closing seconds.  Their remaining non-conference schedule is relatively tough with upcoming games against Saint Mary’s, West Virginia, and Mississippi State.

8. Connecticut (9-1, Last Week: 9)

If Andre Drummond’s performance against Holy Cross is a sign of things to come, look out.  The freshman big man went 11-of-12 from the field for 24 points to go with eight boards and five blocks.  Obviously you have to consider the level of competition, but he has started to show signs of the ability that made him such a highly regarded recruit in recent weeks.  As it stands, he’s already in the Top 15 in offensive rebounding and block percentage.

9. Missouri (11-0, Last Week: 11)

The Tigers won their last two games by a combined 75 points and continue to fire on all cylinders offensively.  They boast the top effective field goal percentage in the country as well as the nation’s lowest turnover rate.  Guard Marcus Denmon is one of the most underrated players in college hoops and is having a phenomenal season so far.

10. Xavier (8-1, Last Week: 8)

Without the suspended Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dez Wells, the Musketeers were beaten soundly by Oral Roberts.  It’s tough to hold this against them given the fact that they were playing short-handed, but I decided to penalize them two spots.  I, too, can dole out questionable punishments.

11. Florida (9-2, Last Week: 13)

The Gators got off to a hot start and hung 50 points on Texas A&M in the first half.  Kenny Boynton led the way with six three-pointers, and the backcourt trio of Boynton, Erving Walker, and Brad Beal combined for 54 points.  Still, the fact Patric Young got just two shots is concerning.

12. Georgetown (9-1, Last Week: 14)

After averaging just 3.6 points last season, center Henry Sims is playing like an All-Conference performer.  The 6-foot-10 senior is leading the team with 3.9 assists per game to go with 12.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks.  The Hoyas will need him to continue his improved play with games coming up against Memphis and Louisville.

13. Marquette (10-1, Last Week: 10)

The Golden Eagles were unable to knock down long-range shots against LSU and lost to the Tigers on the road.  After serving a one-game suspension, Darius Johnson-Odom returned to score 16 points while Jae Crowder continued his recent scoring binge with 22.  Crowder is averaging 20 points over the last four contests.

14. Pittsburgh (11-1, Last Week: 15)

Freshman big man Khem Birch has decided to transfer, but the Panthers won two more games to extend their winning streak to nine.  Dante Taylor grabbed six offensive boards and scored 14 points against St. Francis (PA), and Pitt will need more of the same from him as Big East play begins.  Lamar Patterson is also becoming a consistent contributor for the Panthers with three straight double-digit scoring efforts.

15. Kansas (7-3, Last Week: 12)

The Jayhawks followed up their win over Ohio State by shooting poorly in a loss to Davidson.  Thomas Robinson had 21 points and 18 rebounds for KU but struggled to get consistent touches down the stretch.  Tyshawn Taylor returned from knee surgery to score 15 points, but he also had five turnovers.  Bench play remains a concern as the Jayhawks approach the conference season.

16. Mississippi State (11-1, Last Week: 16)

The Bulldogs picked up a solid road win at Detroit last weekend led by 17 points and 13 boards from Arnett Moultrie.  He and Renardo Sidney are learning to play well together, with Sidney tallying 44 points over the last three games.  Next Wednesday’s matchup with Baylor will be a measuring stick game for MSU.

17. Wisconsin (10-2, Last Week: 17)

After another defensive clinic against Savannah State, the Badgers are now the top-rated team in the Pomeroy Ratings.  They still need preseason All-American Jordan Taylor to find his shooting stroke, but given their schedule, they should be 13-2 when Sparty comes to town in early January.

18. Indiana (11-0, Last Week: 18)

The Hoosiers won an ugly game with Notre Dame before dismantling Howard early this week.  They now lead the nation in three-point shooting and are 11-0 for the first time since their undefeated season in 1975-76.  Cody Zeller has been phenomenal and boasts Top 50 rankings in effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, steal percentage, and overall offensive rating.

19. Harvard (9-1, Last Week: 19)

Tommy Amaker’s squad took the week off, but they should be favored in every game left on their schedule.  That sounds great on the surface, but it also means virtually any loss will hurt their seed come March.

20. Michigan State (10-2, Last Week: 22)

Make it 10 straight wins for the Spartans, who are starting to get things figured out offensively.  They have scored at least 1.04 points per possession over their last seven contests, and they continue to be one of the top defensive teams in the country.  Their next test will come when Indiana visits the Breslin Center next week.

21. Michigan (9-2, Last Week: 21)

Forward Evan Smotrycz has 53 points, 28 boards, and eight steals over the last three games, which is huge for a team looking for reliable frontcourt production.  Their recent level of competition hasn’t been great, so we won’t find out more about the Wolverines until Big Ten play tips off.

22. UNLV (12-2, Last Week: 24)

Even with Chace Stanback scoring just two points, the Rebels won handily against Illinois led by 17 points and 11 board from Mike Moser.  Quintrell Thomas had a big game as well with 13 points and seven rebounds in just 19 minutes of action.  Friday’s game against Cal gives them another chance at a solid non-conference win.

23. Creighton (9-1, Last Week: 25)

Doug McDermott poured in 35 points in a road win against Tulsa and now ranks second in the nation in scoring at 25.2 points per game.  Defense continues to be a potential concern for the Bluejays, and a visit from Northwestern this week should challenge them in that regard with John Shurna and Drew Crawford both playing well.

24. Murray State (12-0, Last Week: Not Rated)

The Racers lost their coach and two of their top three scorers, so naturally they are undefeated.  Remember the name Isaiah Canaan, who is leading Murray State with 19.3 points per game and shooting 48.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Image credit: Jacobsohn/Getty Image via Bleacher Report

Like Harvard, the Racers will be favored in all of their remaining regular season games, which should be a fun storyline to follow as the season progresses.

25. San Diego State (10-2, Last Week: Not Rated)

SDSU’s only losses have come on the road at Baylor and by two points at home against Creighton.  Guard Chase Tapley is averaging 17.7 points and 2.3 steals while knocking down a ridiculous 52.4 percent from long range.  With four very winnable games up next on the schedule, the Aztecs should be 14-2 when they open conference play against UNLV.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

College Basketball Power Rankings

1. Syracuse (10-0, Previous Ranking: 3)

The Orange held on to beat a tough Marshall squad and steamrolled George Washington last week, and thanks to losses by Kentucky and Ohio State, they move into the top spot.  Dion Waiters continues to excel off the bench with 19 points, six steals, five rebounds, and four assists in just 21 minutes against GW.

2. Ohio State (9-1, Previous Ranking: 2)

It’s hard to penalize the Buckeyes for losing at Kansas without Jared Sullinger, so I didn’t.  The sophomore big man returned in a comfortable win over USC Upstate, and quite frankly the Buckeyes probably don’t need him to win their remaining non-conference games.

3. Kentucky (8-1, Previous Ranking: 1)

After losing their first road test to the Hoosiers, Kentucky has four winnable games before a New Year’s Eve date with Louisville.  Terrence Jones continues to be an enigma after his no-show against the Hoosiers, but the good news is that the light seemed to come on for Marquis Teague during the second half with 15 points and no turnovers against IU.

4. North Carolina (8-2, Previous Ranking: 4)

The Heels routed Evansville early in the week and then trailed at the half before coming back to beat Long Beach State on Saturday.  Against the 49ers, Kendall Marshall dished out 16 assists, while John Henson posted another double-double and Reggie Bullock came off the bench to score 15 points.  Based on their schedule, don’t expect UNC to lose again in 2011.

5. Louisville (9-0, Previous Ranking: 5)

Surprisingly the Cardinals made it a week without anyone getting hurt, and they even got Rakeem Buckles back against IUPUI, although he didn’t play against Fairleigh Dickinson.  The schedule gets tougher in the coming weeks with home games against Memphis and Georgetown as well as a trip to Rupp Arena remaining in December.

6. Duke (9-1, Previous Ranking: 6)

After knocking off Washington at Madison Square Garden, the Blue Devils have just two games over the last 16 days of the month, both of which they should win handily.  Austin Rivers has continued to build on his solid performance against Ohio State with 35 points in last week’s two wins, while backcourt mate Andre Dawkins posted 32 in those victories.

7. Baylor (8-0, Previous Ranking: 7)

The Bears had the week off before pounding Bethune-Cookman on Wednesday, but their remaining non-conference schedule has some challenging matchups with games coming up at BYU, at home against Saint Mary’s and West Virginia, and in Dallas against Mississippi State.

8. Xavier (8-0, Previous Ranking: 8)

What a difference a week makes.  Last time around I was raving about X’s wins over Vanderbilt and Purdue, and even though the Musketeers dominated Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout, the late-game brawl dominated the headlines.  With three starters suspended, Sunday’s game against Oral Roberts will be a challenge.

9. Connecticut (8-1, Previous Ranking: 9)

Led by 18 points from Jeremy Lamb and another double-digit effort from Ryan Boatright, the Huskies took care of Harvard at home last week.  Two non-conference games remain for UConn, then Big East play (and Jim Calhoun’s suspension) begins.

10. Marquette (9-0, Previous Ranking: 10)

A last-second three-pointer from Jae Crowder gave the Golden Eagles a neutral court win against Washington and led me to profess my love for them on Run the Floor.  Big man Chris Otule sustained a knee injury in the win over the Huskies, but even though they were short-handed, Marquette took care of Green Bay to remain unbeaten.

11. Missouri (9-0, Previous Ranking: 11)

Following wins over Vanderbilt and Navy, the Tigers are still undefeated and boast one of the nation’s most efficient offenses.  A pair of winnable games stand between Mizzou and a date with unbeaten Illinois for their annual Braggin’ Rights tilt.

12. Kansas (7-2, Previous Ranking: 13)

The Jayhawks took advantage of Sullinger’s absence to pick up a big win at home.  Guard Tyshawn Taylor dished out 13 assists while playing with a torn meniscus, and he’s expected to miss up to three weeks after undergoing surgery earlier this week.  Even though Kansas doesn’t have a ton of depth, the schedule is manageable without him.

13. Florida (7-2, Previous Ranking: 12)

After blowing a late lead against Arizona, the Gators bounced back to win in overtime.  However, with Patric Young dominating inside, the guard-heavy attack failed to force feed him the ball, which was a concern for me heading into this season.  Upcoming games against Texas A&M and Florida State will be solid tests before SEC play begins.

14. Georgetown (8-1, Previous Ranking: 16)

The Hoyas won their lone game of the week against Howard, but the schedule starts to get tougher with a home game against Memphis and a road trip to Louisville among their next three contests.

15. Pittsburgh (9-1, Previous Ranking: 17)

Wins over VMI and Oklahoma State extended Pitt’s win streak to seven games.  Even with Tray Woodall sidelined, that streak should continue to grow with winnable games remaining in the non-conference and four manageable games to start Big East play.

16. Mississippi State (10-1, Previous Ranking: 18)

Despite playing without starters Arnett Moultrie (knee tendinitis) and Brian Bryant (suspension), the Bulldogs hung on to beat Florida Atlantic on Tuesday.  Freshman Rodney Hood continues to impress with 19 points and 10 boards while playing all 40 minutes against FAU.  They have now won nine straight games since losing to Akron with a trip to Detroit looming this weekend.

17. Wisconsin (9-2, Previous Ranking: 20)

Even though Jordan Taylor continues to struggle with his shooting, the Badgers beat UNLV by 11 last weekend and picked up a road win against a solid Milwaukee team on Tuesday.  Other players have picked up the slack though, with Ben Brust going off for 25 against the Rebels and Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans combining for 33 against Milwaukee.

18. Indiana (9-0, Previous Ranking: N/A)

The Hoosiers’ win over Kentucky vaults them into the Top 20, and a 12-0 non-conference record is within reach if they can avoid a post-big win hangover against Notre Dame on Saturday.  IU will need plenty of confidence when they open Big Ten play with games against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan, but Christian Watford has been a different player since the second half of the NC State game.

19. Harvard (9-1, Previous Ranking: 19)

There’s no shame in losing on the road at UConn, so I’m leaving the Crimson here.  I\Even though it was their last chance to pick up another marquee win, this is still a Top 20 team.

20. Illinois (10-0, Previous Ranking: 21)

The Illini remained unbeaten after grinding out a win over St. Bonaventure, and they hit 10 three-pointers against Coppin State to keep their perfect record intact.  They will need more production from their bench with games against UNLV and Missouri on the horizon, but both of those matchups will be good measuring stick games for the surprising Illini.

21. Michigan (8-2, Previous Ranking: 24)

Sophomore Evan Smotrycz tallied 36 points in wins over Oakland and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and his continued development gives the Wolverines another threat on the offensive end.  Michigan has two winnable non-conference games remaining before opening the Big Ten season.

22. Michigan State (8-2, Previous Ranking: N/A)

The Spartans have now reeled off eight straight victories after losing their first two games.  Senior Draymond Green went off for 34 of Sparty’s 74 points in a road win at Gonzaga last Saturday, and MSU should be 11-2 before starting conference play against Indiana on December 28th.

23. Alabama (8-2, Previous Ranking: 14)

Their offensive woes were on display in a surprising double-digit loss to Dayton, but the Tide bounced back to beat Detroit over the weekend.  Freshman Nick Jacobs made his first start again the Titans and acquitted himself well with 13 points.  He gives Alabama another frontcourt option, but they really need a consistent outside threat to improve on their 25.3 percent three-point shooting.

24. UNLV (10-2, Previous Ranking: 22)

The Rebels’ road loss to Wisconsin was their second defeat in three games, but upcoming games against Illinois and Cal will help to determine whether UNLV’s big win over North Carolina was a fluke or not.  For now, I’m still a believer.

25. Creighton (7-1, Previous Ranking: 15)

A road loss to Saint Joseph’s was disappointing, and while the Bluejays can score with just about anyone, their defense and rebounding need some work.  Creighton closes out non-conference play against Northwestern next week in what should be an interesting game.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Putting these together is my attempt at balancing how teams are playing as well as who they are playing (and ideally beating) to rank the top teams in the nation.  So before you get bent out of shape and call me an idiot for having North Carolina at number four, make an argument that they aren’t among the four best teams in the country based on how they played against Kentucky.

That’s what I thought.

College Basketball Power Rankings

1. Kentucky (8-0)

It’s easy to focus on the wealth of offensive riches for the Wildcats, but they also boast the 3rd-ranked defense according to Ken Pomeroy.  Freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may not be UK’s most talented player, but he just might be their most important.

2. Ohio State (8-0)

The Buckeyes own a pair of marquee wins over Florida and Duke, the latter of which they won in convincing fashion.  Keep an eye on Jared Sullinger’s recovery from a back injury, particularly with Saturday’s matchup against Kansas on the horizon.

3. Syracuse (8-0)

With the Bernie Fine scandal dominating the headlines, Syracuse’s play on the court has taken a back seat.  The Orange have a ton of depth and lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.  Sophomores Fab Melo and Dion Waiters have both made huge strides.

4. North Carolina (6-2)

The Heels played poorly in a loss to UNLV but bounced back to knock off Wisconsin and had a legitimate chance to win at Rupp.  Despite their struggles, this is still one of the top teams in the country.  Keep an eye on freshman P.J. Hairston, who has been impressive early on.

5. Louisville (7-0)

Despite a rash of injuries, the Cardinals are undefeated after an overtime win against Vanderbilt.  For now, they’re getting it done with defense, but the best is yet to come once Pitino’s squad gets healthy.

6. Duke (7-1)

The Blue Devils have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and ran the table in Maui before getting steamrolled by Ohio State.  Perimeter defense remains a concern, but Austin Rivers played his best game against the Buckeyes and will continue to assert himself.

7. Baylor (7-0)

Sunday’s 28-point blowout at Northwestern was Baylor’s best performance of the season.  Freshman Quincy Miller has been terrific, and Pierre Jackson looks like the answer at the point guard.  Their frontline is as deep and athletic as they come.

8. Xavier (6-0)

Star guard Tu Holloway was phenomenal in comeback wins over Vanderbilt and Purdue last week.  They need more out of their frontcourt, but Holloway and backcourt mate Mark Lyons will lead them through a treacherous non-conference schedule.

9. Connecticut (7-1)

The Huskies laid an egg against Central Florida in the Battle 4 Atlantis, but the addition of Ryan Boatright has paid dividends already.  No signs of a sophomore slump for Jeremy Lamb or Shabazz Napier either.

10. Marquette (7-0)

Name a better road win than Marquette’s victory at the Kohl Center over the weekend.  The Golden Eagles were the aggressor on both ends of the floor and have the look of a top three team in the Big East.  Buzz Williams is getting great leadership from Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, but there is a ton of depth on this roster.

11. Missouri (7-0)

So far, so good for the Frank Haith era at Mizzou.  The offense has been extremely efficient thanks to phenomenal shooting and a stunning lack of turnovers.  Their 39-point demolition of Cal was one of the best performances of the early season.

12. Florida (5-2)

The guard-heavy Gators have stumbled in their only two tests of the season, but they do own the most efficient offense according to Pomeroy.  Kenny Boynton has been on fire from beyond the arc, and freshman Brad Beal is the real deal.  Erik Murphy’s impending return from a knee injury should bolster the front line.

13. Kansas (5-2)

The Jayhawks aren’t deep, but they have a talented nucleus led by Thomas Robinson.  Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey have been pleasant surprises as well, so it looks like KU’s reign atop the Big 12 won’t end easily.

14. Alabama (7-1)

If not for a last second loss to Georgetown, the Tide might be in the Top 10.  The frontcourt duo of JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell is among the best in the country, and point guard Trevor Releford continues to improve.  Their freshmen are being asked to play major minutes and will only get better.

15. Creighton (7-0)

The Bluejays boast the highest effective field goal percentage in the nation, led by sophomore Doug McDermott whose efficiency numbers are off the charts.  They also picked up an impressive road win at San Diego State last week to maintain their perfect record.

16. Georgetown (7-1)

Even before Hollis Thompson’s three-pointer to beat Alabama, the Hoyas were one of the biggest surprises this season.  Thompson has been fantastic, and Henry Sims has been a revelation inside.

17. Pittsburgh (7-1)

Surprisingly, Pitt’s struggles have been on the defensive end of the floor, but their offense is among the most efficient in the country.  The short-term loss of Tray Woodall hurts, but they’re starting to get more consistent contributions from some of their frontcourt players as Jamie Dixon gets his rotation worked out.

18. Mississippi State (8-1)

The Bulldogs rebounded from a disappointing home loss to Akron, but the fact that they didn’t allow things to snowball shows – dare I say it – maturity from MSU.  Arnett Moultrie has been a monster on the glass, and freshman Rodney Hood is off to a hot start.

19. Harvard (8-0)

A vastly improved defense has helped the Crimson to offset their early season struggles from beyond the arc.  Keith Wright and Kyle Casey form a terrific frontcourt, and their toughest test awaits as Harvard travels to UConn on Thursday.

20. Wisconsin (6-2)

Even after a disappointing week, the Badgers have one of the most efficient defenses around.  A few guys have stepped up in an effort to support Jordan Taylor, but Wisconsin has become almost completely reliant on the three-point shot offensively.

21. Illinois (8-0)

Bradley transfer Sam Maniscalco has provided much-needed leadership, and big man Meyers Leonard has come up big on both ends of the floor in his sophomore season.  Saturday’s win over Gonzaga was their best game of the season.

22. UNLV (8-1)

The Rebels made headlines by shooting their way past North Carolina, and they picked up a solid road win at UC-Santa Barbara before losing at Wichita State.  UCLA transfer Mike Moser has done a little of everything for this team, and his effort and relentless attitude is infectious for his teammates.

23. Gonzaga (5-1)

Coach Mark Few knew what to expect from big men Robert Sacre and Elias Harris, but freshman Kevin Pangos has bolstered the backcourt with a sweet stroke from beyond the arc.

24. Michigan (6-2)

Freshman Trey Burke has helped ease the blow of losing point guard Darius Morris, and star Tim Hardaway Jr. has at least 19 points in four of his last five games.

25. San Diego State (8-2)

Despite losing a ton of production from last season’s Top 10 team, the Aztecs have been impressive in the early going.  Led by guards Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin, SDSU has wins over Cal, Long Beach State, and UCSB and will be a factor in the MWC race.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

I’ve worked retail, and as someone who has seen both sides of the chaos known as “Black Friday” I can tell you that there are few places I’d rather avoid than the massive lines and crowds of deal-obsessed customers in stores this weekend.  Instead, I’ll be plopped on my couch watching some of the interesting matchups the NCAA has to offer as the conference races wind down.

Here is a look at every nationally televised game we’ll have to watch, starting with the hugely consequential Arkansas-LSU game and then going in chronological order of kickoff time.

Black Friday College Football Schedule

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#3 Arkansas at #1 LSU

• Arkansas-LSU Date: Friday, November 25th
• Arkansas-LSU Kickoff Time: 2:30 PM EST
• Arkansas-LSU TV: CBS
• Arkansas-LSU Point Spread: LSU -13
• Arkansas-LSUOver/Under: 52

Arkansas-LSU Preview:

Now this is what I’m talking about.

As a midwesterner (hence my writing for Midwest Sports Fans), I do get sick of the domination of the SEC in football, but this game has potential to be great. Most media members have assumed LSU’s ticket to the national championship game is a foregone conclusion, but Arkansas presents a solid challenge.

Averaging nearly 40 points per game, and with a loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa as their only blemish, Bobby Petrino’s dynamic Razorbacks will attempt to unseat the top-ranked Tigers.

Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson has thrown for 3,215 yards and 21 touchdowns to lead the pass-heavy Arkansas offense.  He will certainly face a test and the freakish LSU defense will be in his face all afternoon Friday.

With one of the toughest, most hostile home fields in all of sports, it wil be fun to watch the Tigers try to cement their status further as the nation’s best team.

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois

• Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois Date: Friday, November 25th
• Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois Kickoff Time: 11:00 AM EST
• Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois TV: ESPNU
• Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois Point Spread: Northern Illinois -19.5
• Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois Over/Under: 64.5

Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois Preview:

This game has MAC championship implications as NIU (8-3, 6-1 MAC) enters tied with Toledo for tops in the MAC West.  NIU will bring their high-powered offense (41.5 points per game, 9th in FBS) into this one, and former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English, now the head coach at Eastern Michigan, will have his hands full trying to stop it.

NIU’s Jasmin Hopkins needs just 159 yards to join Huskies quarterback Chandler Harnish in the 1000-yard club this season.

Louisville at South Florida

• Louisville-South Florida Date: Friday, November 25th
• Lousiville-South Florida Kickoff Time: 11:00 AM EST
• Lousiville-South Florida TV: ESPN2
• Lousiville-South Florida Point Spread: South Florida -3
• Louisville-SouthFlorida Over/Under: 43

Louisville-South Florida Preview:

Despite being only 6-5 overall and 4-2 in Big East play, Louisville is still in the thick of the race for the Big East title.  They have allowed over 30 points only once this season (35 to West Virginia), so they will lean on their defense on the road in this one.

If South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels can’t play due to a right shoulder injury, the Cardinals will have a good chance to pull the (slight) road upset.

Lousiville hasn’t won in South Florida in their last 4 trips.

Iowa at #21 Nebraska

• Iowa-Nebraska Date: Friday, November 25th
• Iowa-Nebraska Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Iowa-Nebraska TV: ABC
• Iowa-Nebraska Point Spread: Nebraska -9.5
• Iowa-Nebraska Over/Under: 53.5

Iowa-Nebraska Preview:

Nebraska will be happy to be back in Lincoln after getting pummeled 45-17 in Ann Arbor.  The Huskers are eliminated from the Big Ten championship race, but they still have bowl position to play for.

Iowa will try to win their third straight game, as they have beaten Purdue and Michigan the last two weeks.

For Nebraska, watch for Rex Burkhead (1108 yards, 14 touchdowns) to try to get back on track after struggling last week.  For Iowa, expect steady doses of Marcus Coker (1297 yards, 14 touchdowns) and receiver Marvin McNutt (1240 yards and 12 touchdowns).  Coker and McNutt are among the most talented rushing/receiving combos in the Big Ten.

Boston College at Miami

• Boston College-Miami Date: Friday, November 25th
• Boston College-Miami Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Boston College-Miami TV: ABC
• Boston College-Miami Point Spread: Miami -14.5
• Boston College-Miami Over/Under: 44

Boston College-Miami Preview:

If you’re in the mood for some mediocre ACC football, this game is right up your alley. Miami, plagued by off the field issues and under a self-imposed bowl ban, will host the Eagles, who have struggled mightily on offense this season.

Miami senior quarterback Jacory Harris will lead the Hurricanes in the final home game for the recruiting class of 2008.  That class, under then-head coach Randy Shannon, was considered one of the best in the nation, but the Canes have largely underachieved during that span, with Shannon being fired and replaced by Al Golden as head coach.

Pittsburgh at West Virginia

• Pittsburgh-West Virginia Date: Friday, November 25th
• Pittsburgh-West Virginia Kickoff Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Pittsburgh-West Virginia TV: ESPN
• Pittsburgh-West Virginia Point Spread: West Virginia -7
• Pittsburgh-West Virginia Over/Under: 57

Pittsburgh-West Virginia Preview:

West Virginia will already know their Big East chances by the time the game starts, as they need a Louisville loss to South Florida to be able to win the conference.  They hold the advantage over Rutgers and Cincinnati by virtue of head-to-head wins over both, but their loss to Louisville has them unable to fully control their own destiny.

For Pittsburgh, this game will be tough.  They lost starting running back Ray Graham to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.  They will now rely on Zach Brown (269 yards, 4 touchdowns) to lead their offense, along with quarterback Tino Sunseri (2037 yards, 9 touchdowns passing).

The Mountaineers have been fantastic on offense, with quarterback Geno Smith tallying 3497 yards and 24 touchdowns so far.  West Virginia averages nearly 40 points per game, so Pittsburgh will have a tough time slowing them down.

This game will be extremely interesting if South Florida handles Lousiville early in the day.

California at Arizona State

• Cal-Arizona State Date: Friday, November 25th
• Cal-Arizona State Kickoff Time: 10:15 PM EST
• Cal-Arizona State TV: ESPN
• Cal-Arizona State Point Spread: Arizona State -5.5
• Cal-Arizona State Over/Under: 53.5

Cal-Arizona State Preview:

To finish out a long day of college football, we have a matchup between two middle of the pack, yet bowl-eligible Pac-12 programs.

The Golden Bears come into this one having narrowly lost to #9 Stanford last week.  Cal’s Isi Sofele (1121 yards, 8 touchdowns) will try to chew up the clock and keep Arizona State’s potent passing offense, led by Brock Osweiler (3377 yards, 21 touchdowns) off the field.  Arizona State, meanwhile, will try to snap a 3-game losing streak and finish the regular season on a positive note.

So, there you have it.  If you’re not out shopping this Friday, you know what your football viewing options are.

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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Image credits: thekartel.com, kansas.com, seattletimes.com, draftpartyblog.com, zimbio.com

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

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Full disclosure: I am starting this post with 3:00 left in the Michigan State-Louisville game. The Spartans are currently up 64-47 and have completely beaten Louisville into submission. I have been shocked by how little heart and grit Louisville has shown. Obviously, Michigan State’s heart and grit come as no surprise and are a reflection of their outstanding coach Tom Izzo.

Not that it took any kind of special prognosticating power, but the keys that I outlined a couple of days ago absolutely ended up being the keys to victory for Michigan State. They did a great job making 3s and defending the 3, they contained Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, they did a great job on the glass, and they made free throws.

This was, for all intents and purposes, a perfect game played Michigan State. And it resulted in a double-digit victory.

Congratulations to Tom Izzo and the Spartans for playing their best game of the season in the biggest spot so far. Now they head to Detroit to take on Connecticut in the Final Four. The Spartans will once again be prohibitive underdogs, and once again will have the challenge of proving the “experts” wrong. I’m glad I stuck with my gut feeling and maintained confidence in Michigan State. They certainly maintained confidence in themselves and the city of Detroit will now get to enjoy watching the home state team in the Final Four.

Click Here for Final Four Tickets in Detroit From StubHub

Here is the box score: Michigan State Beats Louisville 64-52

Photo Gallery: Michigan State-Louisville photos from ESPN.com

Schedule: Final Four Info and Tickets

This post will analyze the Louisville-Michigan State Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Fans in Indianapolis were treated to one outstanding game yesterday and one complete massacre. The victors of those two games, Louisville and Michigan State, will take the court Sunday afternoon for the right to advance to the Final Four as the Midwest Regional Champion.

A quick look back before we look forward to the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday:

Michigan State and Kansas duked it out until the final seconds Friday night before the Spartans emerged victorious. Sherron Collins was fantastic, as expected, but Goran Suton saved one of the best games of his career for a time when Michigan State really needed it. Suton scored 20 points and grabbed 9 rebounds in a tremendously clutch performance. I was right in my prediction that Michigan State would win, but wrong that they needed Raymar Morgan to have a big game. What they needed was someone to cancel out Cole Aldrich and Suton completed the task. You knew Kalin Lucas could battle Sherron Collins to a draw, which he did, and Michigan State has more experience throughout the balance of their roster than KU. In the end, that’s why they won.

And there isn’t really much to say about Louisville’s 103-64 win over Arizona. I predicted a Louisville win and cover, but I did not expect this complete a dismantling of the Wildcats. The Cardinals owned the game from the tip and never relinquished control. Five players scored in double figures, paced by Earl Clark’s 19 points to go along with 9 rebounds. The Cardinals shot 57.6% from the field, 48.3% from downtown (14-29), and 92.9% from the line. It was an incredibly dominating performance by a team that really seems to have hit their stride over the last month or so.

So what will happen on Sunday afternoon when Louisville and Michigan State take the floor at Lucas Oil Stadium? That’s exactly what we’re here to analyze. Here are the particulars:

Louisville-Michigan State Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Sunday, March 29
• TV Time: 2:20 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -7
• Over-Under: 138

In my original 2009 bracket, I had this as the Elite 8 contest out of the Midwest Region, with Michigan State as the choice to make the Final Four. Here is what I said about the Spartans then:

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

In the two weeks that have passed since I posted my predictions, the Spartans have beaten Robert Morris, and won close, hard-fought games against USC and Kansas. Louisville, by contrast, has been much more dominating against a less impressive slate of tournament opponents, beating Morehead State, Siena, and Arizona by an average of 22 points a game.

I can see why the line on this game is Louisville -7. The Cardinals are the #1 seed, they hail from the Big East and won both the regular season and conference title, and they have rolled through their three tournament opponents (although Siena put up a bit of a second half fight). Michigan State is the #2 seed, played in a conference that I still think gets less love than it should, and have won without being dominating.

If I was setting a betting line, I would favor Louisville too. I just don’t know that I am going to pick them.

But before I get to my prediction, let’s head over to the Game Predictor to see how it sees this game, based on the same statistical categories we used for all of the Sweet 16 games:

• Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.065 | Michigan State – 1.056
• Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.879 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.281 | Michigan State – 1.171
• Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.645 | Michigan State – 0.697
• Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.394 | Michigan State – 0.415

So, Louisville wins four out of the five categories, is the higher seed, had a tougher strength of schedule (I assume, though probably not by much), and is favored. It all adds up to the Cardinals probably being an overwhelming favorite in the eyes of Game Predictor.

And that is exactly how it came out:

• Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 83.1% | Michigan State – 16.9%
• Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 74.3 | Michigan State – 65.1
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +7): Louisville – 60.1% | Michigan State – 39.9%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

I have run every Sweet 16 game and every Elite 8 game but one (UNC-Oklahoma, to come later) through the Game Predictor. This is one of the most overwhelmingly lopsided predictions that has been returned.

And here is the frustrating part for me as I type this: rationally, I agree with the prediction.

Louisville’s metrics are better, they are more talented from top to bottom on their roster, they have a great coach who is certainly Tom Izzo’s peer, and they have passed the “eye test” during the tournament more impressively than Michigan State. So I completely understand why Game Predictor, and many others, think Louisville wins this game by a touchdown or more.

But I really, really, really want to disagree.

I like Tom Izzo and I’m a big fan of the Spartans’ backcourt of Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton. Plus, I am a Big Ten supporter through and through and would love to see Michigan State return some prestige to our recently struggling (but still underrated!) conference. Mix in the whole Rick Pitino-Kentucky connection, and I will without question be a huge Spartans fan on Sunday night.

However, I am trying to be as objective as possible in making these predictions. The Game Predictor has been a very powerful tool in doing so, and it is hard to ignore the overwhelming numbers above. I did go against Game Predictor during the Sweet 16, with some success (picking Villanova over Duke) and some failure (picking Syracuse over Oklahoma). I am trying to find something, anything to give me a shred of confidence to ignore game predictor here.

Louisville has only lost two games since the calendar turned to February, and has won 13 in a row. During that streak, only 4 of their games were decided by single digits. However, from February 2 through February 12, the Cardinals lost twice, at home to UConn and on the road against Notre Dame. Perhaps these two games offer a clue for what Michigan State can do to slow down this Louisville juggernaut (which I, admittedly, underestimated coming into the tournament.)

UConn dominated Louisville defensively, winning 68-51. Terrence Williams scored 26 for Louisville, but only five other players scored and the rest of the starters contributed only 10 points. Earl Clark was held to 2-16 shooting while Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith shot a combined 2-9. As a team, the Cardinals had an Assist/TO ratio of 9/17. Amazingly, UConn went 0-8 from downtown and had a porous 12/16 Assist/TO ratio themselves. But Hasheem Thabeet grabbed 11 boards, blocked 4 shots, and scored 14 points to control the paint.

The Notre Dame-Louisville game was a complete massacre in favor of the Irish. Slumping heading into the game, Notre Dame got 10-16 shooting from downtown by Kyle McAlarney and Ryan Ayers, plus 32 points and 17 rebounds from Luke Harangody. The Irish won 90-57. Louisville shot 39% from the field for the game, and was outrebounded 46-25. It was a thoroughly dominating performance by the Irish that led Rick Pitino to say the following:

“This victory, while humiliating to us, can propel them into something good,” Pitino said. “I’m happy for them. I’m really upset at our players. The way we practiced going into this game and the way we played tonight, our five men were just totally dominated.”

Of course, from that point on, the Louisville Rickpitinowhitesuits have not lost again.

So what can Michigan State take away from these two losses as they try to prepare a blueprint for beating Louisville? First, hope that Louisville comes out completely unprepared to play, like they did against Notre Dame. Assuming that won’t happen, considering a spot in the Final Four is on the line and all, here are some keys for Michigan State:

1 — Own the glass

In these two losses by Louisville, they were outrebounded 82-55. Michigan State has always been a very good rebounding team, but this year’s squad is not one of their best teams on the glass in recent memory. Goran Suton averages 8.0 rebounds a game, with no one else grabbing more than Raymar Morgan’s 5.4. And Morgan only had 1 rebound in 13 minutes of action last night against Kansas, when the Spartans won despite being outrebounded 31-27. UConn and Notre Dame dominated on the boards and won. Michigan State cannot give the Cardinals second chances and they must get a few offensive rebounds of their own.

2 — Make 3s and guard the 3

UConn did not need threes to beat Louisville, but they have Hasheem Thabeet down low and more scoring options than the Spartans have. Plus, Louisville had an off night themselves from downtown in that game. But we know that Louisville will shoot and make their fair share of threes, as they knocked down 299 on the season, with six players making 29 or more. At a minimum, Michigan State needs to battle Louisville to close to a draw from downtown, which means that Chris Allen, Kalin Lucas, and Durrell Summers (and even Suton) need to be shooting well. Last night, Louisville made 14 3s en route to dominating Arizona. If Michigan State can’t force Louisville to be around 25-30% from long range, and make some of their own, it could be a long night.

3 — Take away Terrence Williams or Earl Clark, if not both

It is probably pie in the sky thinking that Michigan State can shut down both Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, especially considering how well both have played recently. But in Louisville’s losses, these two guys typically struggle. Williams had 9 points in a loss to UNLV and just 5 in the Notre Dame loss. Clark had 5 and 11 in the UConn and Notre Dame losses, respectively. If Michigan State can harass Williams and Clark to force them into low percentage shots, Louisville’s explosiveness will be compromised. At the very least, the Spartans need to ensure that one of these guys struggles.

4 — Get to the line and make free throws

Want to know what the “hidden” difference was in the MSU-Kansas game? The Spartans went 16-17 from the line, while Kansas went 11-13. Michigan State has a decided advantage over Louisville in free throw shooting percentage on the season, and they must exploit this. Kalin Lucas needs to get into the lane and draw fouls, and the other Spartans must be strong down low, take contact, and then make their freebies. If Michigan State can steal 5-6 points from the line against Louisville, as they did against Kansas, it will got a long way towards keeping them in the game.

Now, obviously, doing all four of these things is far easier said than done. There are plenty of solid reasons why Louisville was the #1 overall seed in the tournament, and they have proven the committee right thus far in the tournament.

Here are two advantages that I think Michigan State has going into the game:

1. They are more battle-tested in close games against good teams thus far in the tournament, having pulled out tough Ws over USC and Kansas. Louisville has not faced a team as good as either so far. (Of course, they did win the Big East tournament right before the NCAA Tournament started…)
2. The carrot at the end of the stick for Michigan State is playing in the Final Four in their own backyard. I don’t really know how much of an advantage this is, as you have to think that Louisville is just as motivated to make the Final Four regardless of where it is being played. But sometimes upsets happen because a team comes together to play for a higher purpose. Detroit is a struggling city, both in terms of economics and the performance of their sports teams, and I am sure that a Spartan trip to the Final Four at Ford Field would be exciting and uplifting for everyone. If Tom Izzo can somehow use this effectively as an extra little nugget of motivation, it could help. How much? Probably not a lot. But if this is a close game, every little advantage will be meaningful.

Michigan State was my original Final Four pick, but I have felt less and less confident in that choice each time I have seen Louisville play in the tournament. And while this is a very solid Michigan State team, I do not view these Spartans as being in the upper echelon of Tom Izzo’s teams in East Lansing. They just seem to one be one player away for being truly elite. Unfortunately, in terms of talent and expectations, that player is on their roster in Raymar Morgan, but it is hard to count on him for any type of game-to-game consistency.

Update: Just caught on SI.com that Raymar Morgan is expected to play tomorrow despite the broken nose he suffered against Kansas. According to Tom Izzo, Morgan “did not play well before the injury and was even less productive after it.”

Everything, in my mind, points to a Louisville victory on Sunday. When you stack up all of the metrics, I think it would take a flight of irrationality and wishful thinking to predict a Spartan victory. So that is why I will suggest that if you are actually thinking of placing money on this game, you should just stop reading right here.

Because I’m sticking with my pick of Michigan State.

Call it an irrational man-crush on Tom Izzo, stubborn Big Ten support, or just an unexplainable gut feeling; but I think Michigan State finds a way to get it done (and obviously covers the spread). The Spartans reaching the Final Four in their own backyard just seems like one of those NCAA Tournament stories that is too compelling not to happen; and while Louisville appears to have most of the advantages heading in, Michigan State is absolutely still good enough to win.

Call me crazy, but I think they will.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Earl Clark, Terrence Williams photo credit: Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images North America

This post will analyze the Louisville-Arizona game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Two coaching titans will take to the floor Friday night when the Louisville Cardinals meet up with the Arizona Wildcats.

The Louisville Cardinals are led by Mr. White Suit himself Rick Pitino, a man who was born to be a college basketball coach and who has been successful at every stop along his college basketball path (and we’ll just forget about the whole Celtics thing…).

Pitino went to the Final Four with Providence, led by Billy Donovan and his short shorts. After leaving Providence, Pitino built upon the storied tradition in Lexington by going 219-50 at Kentucky and winning one National Championship, reaching two other Final Fours, two other Elite 8′s, and never losing in the first round of the tournament. And now at Louisville, Pitino is at it again, with a 199-87 record, already one Final Four appearance, and a championship this season in the conference that many have said is the best ever.

The Arizona Wildcats are led by Lute Olson, who has ammassed 781 wins during his storied career, with stops at Long Beach State, Iowa, and Arizona. His Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament every year between 1985 and 2007, winning the National Championship in 1997. And now, Olson has his troops on the precipice of another Elite Ei–

Wait — what? I’m an idiot Midwesterner you say…and Lute Olson isn’t coaching Arizona? And they’re playing in the Sweet 16?! Okay…but who the hell is Russ Pennell?

Well, in the irony of all ironies, here is the first hit for a google search on Russ Pennell’s name: his bio at the Arizona…State website. And here is the Russ Pennell basketball bio, as described by Pat Forde of ESPN:

Until May 2008, he had been out of coaching for four years — working as a radio analyst and directing a basketball academy in Phoenix. Prior to that, he had worked under Rob Evans until he was fired at Arizona State and previously at Mississippi. And there was a two-year stint at Oklahoma State under Eddie Sutton.

Yet here he is in the Sweet 16, a man whose de facto job title is Coach Until He Loses. Now the trick is to beat a couple of coaching legends and remain employed as long as he can.

No matter what, that tenure doesn’t figure to last past April 6. This isn’t a Steve Fisher story, or a Steve Lavin story, or a Mike Davis story. No matter how well he has done in a difficult spot, the interim guy won’t be rewarded with the full-time job.

So, we have a guy who is 8-0 in Sweet 16 games, has 521 victories, and wears badass pimp suits (Pitino), going up against a guy who has 21 career victories, was a radio analyst at this time last year, and who has ostensibly no shot at getting the full-time gig after this season (Pennell).

Oh yeah, this is fair.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go try and shake the words “a Mike Davis story” out of my head, otherwise I’ll have nightmares tonight.

Louisville v Arizona Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 7:07 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -9 1/2
• Over-Under: 139
• My prediction: Louisville

Okay, time now to hop on over to the Game Predictor and see what it says about this game. I have a very strong feeling that this will be the most lopsided of the projections, especially considering the seed differential and strength of schedule differential between these two teams.

Here is the breakdown of the five statistical categories we have been analyzing for each game:

• Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.054 | Arizona – 1.095
• Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.878 | Arizona – 1.030
• Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.244 | Arizona – 1.141
• Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.639 | Arizona – 0.739
• Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.396 | Arizona – 0.433

Wow…the differential between the two teams in defensive efficiency rating is staggering. Considering Louisville is from the Big East and Arizona is from the Pac-10, it is not all that surprising though. And yes, I am stereotyping and saying that teams eest of the Mississippi tend to play better defense than teams west of it. But that’s an analysis for another day.

Here is the Game Predictor projection for the Louisville-Arizona game:

• Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 86.3% | Arizona – 13.7%
• Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 75.7 | Arizona – 65.7
• Odds to Cover Spread (Arizona +9.5): Louisville – 51.9% | Arizona – 48.1%
• Confidence Level: 5 Stars

Damn. Looks like Louisville is the favorite huh? Well, like I said, these results are not all that unexpected. And the Game Predictor is obviously quite confident about it, as their confidence level is at 5 stars.

Obviously, I think Louisville will win this game. More importantly, I think they will cover the spread as well.

Arizona is a nice team with a core of talented players, but Louisville is a great team with a great coach. Now, I think Louisville will lose to whoever wins the Michigan State-Kansas game, but I do not think they will have a problem disposing of Arizona. The Wildcats simply do not play the kind of defense that can slow down Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, and the rest of the Cardinal attack. Arizona might be able to keep it close early, but I think this game turns into a 20-25 point blowout in the second half.

It’s been a nice run for Russ Pennell, and the Wildcats have provided a little drama by being the only double-digit seed in the tournament, but let’s not get carried away here. They had a nice victory over #5 seed Utah and then beat a #13 seed (albeit a good and talented one in Cleveland State) in round two. Playing Louisville is a couple notches up the rung and while the Wildcats have the talent to play with Louisville for 40 minutes on a given night, I do not think they have the defensive consistency nor the sideline leadership to warrant the forecast of a close one Friday night.

Friday night, Rick Pitino will move to 9-0 in the Sweet 16 and get one step closer to a Final Four. Russ Pennell will most likely begin his search for another job. But hey — making it to the Sweet 16 as an unlikely head coach for Arizona is a great story for Russ Pennell. Arizona may be able to take his job, but they’ll never be able to take the pleasant memory of this season away.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Let’s break down what should be an extremely tight round of March Madness betting. (Editor’s note: All picks are straight up, not against the spread. Go to the homepage and check out the recent game-by-game posts for a closer look at how to pick these games against the spread.)

EAST REGION

No. 1 Pittsburgh Panthers vs No. 4 Xavier Musketeers

Xavier is like the plucky little kid trying to measure up to his older brother in this NCAA basketball betting matchup. What do the Musketeers do best? Play defense and rebound like crazy. They showed off those skills in the first two rounds of the tournament, totally stymieing Wisconsin in the round of 32 after shooting the lights out against Portland State.

Problem: Pittsburgh battles the same way Xavier does and does it better. While the Musketeers are fifth in the nation in rebounding, the Panthers are second. Pittsburgh will eke out a win here thanks to superior backcourt talent with Levance Fields leading the way alongside outstanding big man DeJuan Blair.

Online betting pick: Pittsburgh

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 3 Villanova Wildcats

Playing in the powerful Big East, Villanova has flown under the radar for much of the season. This weekend, the Wildcats be outed as major contenders when they knock off the Blue Devils. Duke’s overreliance on perimeter shooting doesn’t bode well against the defensively sound Villanova. Expect the Wildcats to control the pace and reach the Elite 8.

Online betting pick: Villanova

SOUTH REGION

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs

There aren’t too many “pretenders” left in the March Madness betting field, but Gonzaga is close. Yeah, the Bulldogs put up some points against Akron and Western Kentucky, but those were No. 13 and No. 12 seeds, respectively. Gonzaga barely survived those matchups, coming from behind to beat Akron and downing Western Kentucky with a last-second shot.

Jumping from that competition to No. 1 North Carolina, still the odds-on sportsbook favorite to win the March Madness odds, will be too much for the ’Zags to handle. The Tar Heels should drop major points on the Bulldogs in a high-scoring affair here. Bet on North Carolina, who should keep getting better with Ty Lawson regaining his form.

Online betting pick: North Carolina

No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners vs No. 3 Syracuse Orange

It’s Blake Griffin Versus the World in what could be the closest of all the Sweet 16 lines. Well, maybe that’s an overstatement, but the point is that Griffin has been the force of the Tournament so far, averaging 30.5 points and 15 rebounds. Is Syracuse up to the task after breezing through the first two rounds?

I say yes. The Orange are a potent offensive unit with well-distributed scoring; five different Orange players averaged 10 or more points per game this regular season. The Orange offense can top Griffin’s inevitable powerhouse performance and guard Jonny Flynn has been sensational. Bet on Syracuse to pull off what some online betting experts would call a minor upset.

Online betting pick: Syracuse

WEST REGION

No. 1 Connecticut Huskies vs No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers

So, uh…Connecticut did pretty well in its first two March Madness betting contests, averaging a 46-point victory margin. Does that mean the Huskies are extremely sharp or extremely untested? Only time will tell. What we do know is that Purdue enters the Sweet 16 nicely battle-hardened, being the only No. 5 seed to avoid the dreaded 5/12 loss and grinding out a tough win over Washington. Center JaJuan Johnson in particular has stepped up his play and will need to maintain that high standard against UConn.

It’s tempting to pick Purdue to pull off the sportsbook upset here, but UConn sure isn’t getting much respect for a No. 1 seed. Better to have the Huskies surprise you with a loss than to pick the No. 5 seed and kick yourself afterwards. Go with Connecticut until they prove you wrong.

Online betting pick: Connecticut

No. 2 Memphis Tigers vs No. 3 Missouri Tigers

It just doesn’t feel right picking Missouri. For one, J.T. Tiller’s convenient last-second injury, which allowed Kim English to shoot the game-winning free throws in his place, seemed shady. Missouri also got pretty darn lucky when Marquette’s Lazar Hayward blew the game by stepping on the baseline during an inbound.

Karma aside, Memphis is still be better of the two March Madness picks here. It got its major scare out of the way in the first round and should ride its outstanding defense to the Elite 8 and maybe the Final Four.

Online betting pick: Memphis

MIDWEST REGION

No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 12 Arizona Wildcats

Like them or not, the Arizona Cardinals have impressed in the March Madness odds after many detractors felt they shouldn’t have qualified for the tournament at all. Many online betting sharps correctly predicted their upset over Utah in the first round and they had the lucky draw of No. 13 Cleveland State in the second round, so the Wildcats haven’t really been tested.

Louisville, the top overall seed in the tourney, won’t be like anything the Wildcats have faced so far. This may be the only Sweet 16 betting matchup with blow-out potential.

Online betting pick: Louisville

No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks

Still feels weird to see Michigan State seeded higher than Kansas, doesn’t it? Most basketball betting fans didn’t expect much from Kansas in its attempted national title defense after the Jayhawks lost all their starters from last year’s team. However, they’ve looked very impressive early, riding the torrid play of Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins.

A couple of weeks ago, Michigan State would have been the consensus sportsbook pick here, but the Spartans had their hands full with USC and may not have an answer if Aldrich does anything close to the triple-double he posted against Dayton. Bet on Kansas to win one more round.

Online betting pick: Kansas

Note: This post is from the 2009 Tournament. Follow the link to view the 2010 Sweet 16 TV Schedule, Announcer Assignments, and Spreads.

For whatever reason, the last games of each day were spectacular on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Unfortunately, the two teams I was cheering hard for last night (Marquette and Siena) both ended up losing after briefly grasping control of their games. The Marquette loss essentially killed any chances I have of coming back in the MSF Bracket Challenge, as I had them in the Elite 8, but it certainly will not diminish my excitement for the Sweet 16.

No, there are no truly compelling Cinderella stories (unless you consider Arizona a Cinderalla); but, there are 16 really good basketball teams squaring off in compelling matchups across the board.

Let’s get right to breaking down the Sweet 16 matchups in each region:

Sweet 16 TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers, Spreads

West Regional Semifinals Quick Preview

• StubHub: West Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• West Regional Breakdown

#1 UConn v #5 Purdue Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 7:07 PM on CBS
• Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: UConn -6 1/2
• Over-Under: 134
• My prediction: UConn
• Purdue-UConn Preview and Analysis

#2 Memphis v #3 Missouri Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: Memphis -4 1/2
• Over-Under: 140
• My prediction: Missouri
• Memphis-Missouri Preview and Analysis

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East Regional Semifinals Quick Preview

• StubHub: East Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• East Regional Breakdown

#1 Pittsburgh v #4 Xavier Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 7:27 PM on CBS
• Site: TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, MA
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Point Spread: Pittsburgh -7
• Over-Under: 139
• My prediction: Pittsburgh
• Pitt-Xavier Preview and Analysis

#2 Duke v #3 Villanova Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• TV Time: 9:57 PM on CBS
• Site: TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, MA
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Point Spread: Duke -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 148
• My prediction: Villanova
• Duke-Villanova Preview and Analysis

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Midwest Regional Semifinals Quick Preview

• StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown

#1 Louisville v #12 Arizona Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 7:07 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -9 1/2
• Over-Under: 139
• My prediction: Louisville
• Louisville-Arizona Preview and Analysis

#2 Michigan State v #3 Kansas Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Michigan State -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 138 1/2
• My prediction: Michigan State
• Michigan State-Kansas Preview and Analysis

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South Regional Semifinals Quick Preview

• StubHub: South Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• South Regional Breakdown

#2 Oklahoma v #3 Syracuse Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 7:27 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: Oklahoma -1
• Over-Under: 153 1/2
• My prediction: it was Oklahoma…I’ve changed it to Syracuse
• Syracuse-Oklahoma Preview and Prediction

#1 North Carolina v #4 Gonzaga Sweet 16 Preview

• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 9:57 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -8 1/2
• Over-Under: 162 1/2
• My prediction: North Carolina
• North Carolina-Gonzaga Preview and Analysis

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We’ll checking back in as the week goes along with more detailed predictions and breakdowns. The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is always filled with more of a flurry of action and the drama of the little guy fighting to move on. Once things get whittled down the Sweet 16 we are typically left with what we have this year: solid, top-level teams matched up in games that could go either way and should be close.

The greatness of the NCAA Tournament never ceases.