Is the head coaching turnover about to get as bad as the NHL or even the NBA (where all 15 Eastern Conference teams changed coaches in a two-year period in the mid-2000s)? That remains to be seen, but I see no less than 10 additional changes that may be made when the 2011 regular season closes January 1, or even after the playoffs.

Maybe it’s just global warming, but here are the coaches skating on the thin ice that JDR, Haley, and Sparano have already broken through.

1. Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay)

Less than two months ago Morris wouldn’t even be on this list after a 4-2 start, and that after seemingly turning the franchise around with a 10-6 mark in 2010. But a seven-game losing streak featuring some of the club’s worst football since the infamous 26-game losing streak of 1976-77 has Morris in deep trouble. The fact that he may had been too young to begin with when hired (still only 35) may be a migrating factor.

But incidents such as Morris ordering one of his players off the field a few weeks back and a possible off-field issue involving RB LeGarrette Blount (that would be nothing new) is not helping Raheem’s case.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: None, look for Morris to join the other two Florida-based coaches (Del Rio/Sparano) on the coaching unemployment line, was even surprised he didn’t join Del Rio/Haley this week.

2. Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis)

There is a new report that Caldwell will be gone if Colts go 0-16. Duh, he’s in trouble if the Colts by some miracle finish 3-13. The Colts were going to get a mulligan without Peyton Manning this year. If Indy were just respectable right now (say 5-8), there would be no discussion. But Blue Horseshoe has become historically bad, worse even than the teams from 1980 until the mid- to late-90s. Caldwell might be a good guy, but coaches simply don’t survive 0-13.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Caldewelll is done.

3. Norv Turner (San Diego)

Norv’s reign in the 6-1-9 is coming to a close, even if the team runs the table and finishes 9-7. After turning the Houston Texans into one of the league’s best defenses, Wade Phillips is being mentioned as a replacement. Phillips’ regular season coaching record (82-59) is surprisingly good, but a bad ending at all his spots. Also Wade would be the same type of coach with the same type of rep as Norv – a retread who’s a great coordinator, not as great as the man.

And the man before Norv with the Chargers?? Marty Schottenheimer just may resurface (again) in Kansas City.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Has about run his course.

4. Andy Reid (Philadelphia)

Obviously his career record has been exceptional, and Rex Ryan recently referred to Reid as a “Hall of Fame coach.” But the bar was set very high for the “Dream Team” this year, and 5-8 in the division obviously falls far short of that. This is likely a case of a coach who has taken a franchise about as far as he’s going to take it.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: I think the Bill Walsh 10-year burnout rule plays here. Look for the Eagles to make a change.

5. Pat Shurmur (Cleveland)

The Browns have been an awful mess for a while now, and it would seem Shurmur deserves more than one year. But there have been distractions such as the Peyton Hillis mess and now the Colt McCoy-concussion controversy. And team president Mike Holmgren is beginning to feel some heat as well. Holmgren this week was quoted as saying that Pat “will be here a long time.” Famous last words??

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Iffy, better than 50-50 he goes.

Pat Shurmur's chances of staying with Cleveland past this season are iffy.

* – Pat Shurmur photo credit: via Cleveland Browns.com

6. Mike Shanahan (Washington)

Actually the problems regarding DC football starts with owner Dan Snyder, who continues to swing for the fences with large contracts for star players and big-name hires on the coaching staff but with negative results. Remember how many said “who?” when Mike McCarthy was hired in Green Bay?? And how many free agents did the Packers sign in the off-season?? Maybe instead of throwing more bad money after bad money, Snyder ought to take a cue of following that template.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Snyder probably dismisses Shanny, only to search for yet another quick fix (big name college coach??).

7. Steve Spagnuolo (St. Louis)

Here’s another team that was on the rise in 2010 that has regressed to the point that the HC finds himself on the hot seat. QB Sam Bradford has played hurt the past several weeks, and outside of RB Steven Jackson, there is little talent on offense period.

With a record of 15-62 (and that includes 7-9 last year), the team is in the midst of its worst stretch in franchise history (including L.A and Cleveland). And this has been accomplished in the weak NFL West.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: If Spags stays in 2012, he has to go 9-7 minimum.

8. Leslie Frazier (Minnesota)

Picking up the pieces from the Mike Tice and Brad Childress regimes, it figured that Frazier would be given time to rebuild the Vikings, especially known going in that Christian Ponder was going to have to develop sooner rather than later.

That said, 2-11 is not going to cut it. A lot of competition going on right now in the NFC North, but Frazier is going to have to find a way to tread water in 2012 — he does have prize pieces in Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Gets one more year, but has to at least be in neighborhood of .500.

9. Jason Garrett (Dallas)

Not like 7-6 is the end of the world, but it’s been the way the Cowboys have lost with catastrophic late-game collapses. Maybe Garrett’s to blame, maybe the make-up of QB Tony Romo is the blame. Good news is Dallas can still right the ship and win the NFC East and then make noise in the playoffs. Bad news is Felix Jones is the only RB on the roster left physically standing.

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Unless Jerry Jones has a quick trigger, Garrett should get another year.

10. Tom Coughlin (Giants)

Yes, all four NFC East coaches made this list, which tells you the perennial expectations in these high-profile markets. It’s said that Coughlin may have saved his job with the Giants’ miraculous comeback in Dallas Sunday night.

My question is should his job security be shaky to begin with, considering a murderous schedule and the four-game losing streak maybe long forgotten with a division title/playoff run? The 2007 team finished the regular season giving the undefeated Patriots a run for their money in a 38-35 loss, then beat New England in the Super Bowl. The 2011 team recently lost to the Packers 38-35 – will they get a second chance at the Pack in the playoffs?

SURVIVAL CHANCES: Probably stays, but sealing the division with a Week 17 win over Dallas would be nice. At age 65, retirement would also not be out of the question.

So there are 10 more potential coaching changes on top of the three already made. And then factor in an off-the-board possibility like Bill Belichick doing like Tony LaRussa if the Patriots were to win it all, and a case like Mike Smith in Atlanta who endured a health scare last week.

That would be somewhere between 13-15 teams making changes at the top before the 2012 season begins. The final three weeks will determine how many changes actually come to fruition.

So upgrade they did.

The Monday after the Vikings-Packers game, Childress was fired. No more fights on the sidelines, no more shots being fired at the starting quarterback, no more poor play calls that “break” the game—at least not from Childress.

For the remainder of the season Leslie Frazier— the Defensive Coordinator and Assistant Head Coach—was named Interim Head Coach. After their season came to an end, the Vikings officially made Frazier Head Coach.

There are three reasons why Frazier is an upgrade from Childress:

Reason 1: He can connect with his players

One of Childress’ biggest faults was being unable to connect with his players on a personal level. This connection is one of they few ways a coach has to encourage and motivate his players. Childress was known for having a cold shoulder toward players and occasionally fired shots when an individual didn’t have his best game. This behavior definitely broke the trust between players and the coach. It even pushed some players, like quarterback Brett Favre, to call his own plays instead of following Childress’ orders.

Leslie Frazier is not like that. He has built a good rapport with the team. Valuable individuals, like Adrian Peterson, trust his football knowledge and take note when he’s ready to inspire them with his expertise.

Reason 2: He focuses on the now but knows how to plan for the tomorrow

After first taking the interim position, Frazier was bombarded with questions regarding whether or not he would become the new head coach. Frazier wasn’t even worried about it. He made a point to focus on turning the team around. While he went 3-3 to wrap up the 2010 season, Frazier had many challenges to face alongside coaching football. With the collapse of the Metrodome roof and lack of team camaraderie, Frazier had his hands full.

Frazier knows when to worry about the now, but he also looks ahead at what’s best for the team. Bringing in veteran NFL players like Donovan McNabb might not seem like the best of ideas, but I guarantee he will benefit the team in some way or another. Frazier knows why he wants each player and how to use them to his advantage.

Reason 3: Frazier wants it

After numerous interviews for a head coaching position, Frazier finally got what he wanted in January. Dedication and patience pay off—Aaron Rodgers knows that. And now Frazier’s time to shine has come. He has become more than a temporary fix for a tattered Vikings team. He has veterans who respect him from previous years of working with him, and he has new, fresh players that he can mold into skilled assets for his team.

The Vikings are starting out with a lot of new players for the 2011 season. It’s time for a fresh start instead of trying to play with the “has-beens” like they did the previous season.  Even more importantly than the new players, there is a new coach. This upgrade is deadly, and as a Packers fan I hope the rest of the NFC North is keeping their eye on the guys in purple.

Upgrade today like the Vikings did for the 2011 season and Best Buy will buy it back when you’re ready for the next big thing.

Actually, I love the thought of the NFL Draft.

For some reason, I spend three months every year trying to find the perfect scenario for the Vikings when it comes to the last weekend in April, only to sit and stare at the screen when everything falls apart. It’s just another thing to add to the list of things that make me hate sports.

For some reason though, I come back every year, and this year was no different.

The Vikings are entering a season with a new head coach and a lot of questions. What better way to get a head start on everything than with a great draft right? Well, I wouldn’t call this year’s draft a great one, but I wouldn’t call it a terrible one either. I’m not one to assign or even look at draft grades. I’d rather assess the picks by need and caliber, which we are about to do.

Round 1
Christian Ponder, QB – Florida State

This pick came as a shock to pretty much everyone and was named the surprise of Round 1. It shouldn’t have been. The pick makes complete sense based on what the Vikings are trying to accomplish.

Head Coach Leslie Frazier made it very obvious that the Vikings were going to target a quarterback early in the draft. Frazier didn’t want a quarterback; he NEEDED one.

Do I think Ponder is the guy they wanted? Probably not, but he was what was available at the 12 spot. Minnesota didn’t have a third round pick due to their mid-season trade with New England, which landed them Randy Moss (I would prefer not to talk about this), making it very difficult to move up the board to grab a guy like Locker or Gabbert.

I initially described the Ponder pick as a panic move by the Vikings organization, which it kind of was. Minnesota desperately wanted to trade down and accumulate more draft picks, but when that wasn’t going to happen and with the rate of QBs flying off the board early on, they didn’t feel confident enough to wait it out and see what was waiting for them at pick 43 in the second round. So Ponder was really their only option.

Ponder is not a bad quarterback. He’s a guy who threw for almost 70% as a junior at Florida State, and he put up somewhat decent stats last year even though he was battling an injury in his throwing arm. Ponder was viewed at a Round 1-type talent coming into the year, and was only downgraded because of injury concerns. He was able to get himself healthy and stood out in all of his pre-draft workouts, including a strong showing at the Senior Bowl in which he took home the MVP trophy.

I’m not going to be fully convinced on the Ponder selection until I get to watch him play or watch some tape on him. With guys like Prince Amukamura and Nick Fairley still on the board, it would have been nice to see them in purple as well, but a team in the NFL cannot win without a quarterback, and the Vikings hope they have found theirs in Christian Ponder.

Round 2
Kyle Rudolph, TE – Notre Dame

I did not like this pick. At all. I think I may be the only one.

Granted Minnesota has three tight ends on their roster — Visanthe Shiancoe, Jim Kleinsasser (North Dakota Native), and Jeff Dugan –  who are 30 or older and have contracts that expire after the 2011 season. And Rudolph was far and away the highest rated TE in the entire 2011 Draft class and will hopefully give Christian Ponder a nice target for multiple years to come.

That said, the Vikings had higher needs coming into the draft than tight end, especially in the second round, and even more importantly when they wouldn’t pick again until the middle of the fourth round. With guys like Rahim Moore, Marvin Austin, Da’Quan Bowers, and Brandon Harris on the board, who all would have filled bigger needs, I felt those would have been better options. Alas, I’m not the one making the decisions, so again, like Ponder, we’ll just have to wait and see how everything pans out.

Round 4
Christian Ballard, DL – Iowa

I don’t know a lot about Ballard. What I do know is he is another classic case of a guy with a lot of talent who graded out high with a lot of scouts, but he has too many character issues to be drafted where he should have been. First round talent, fourth round character.

Minnesota is no stranger to taking players like him, but when a guy openly admits to smoking pot during the NFL Combine when he knows he’s going to get tested, you have to question his decision making. Unfortunately, Minnesota might not have a lot of time to wait for him to mature and shape up with a Kevin Williams suspension looming and the possible departure of Ray Edwards.

Round 5
Brandon Burton, DB – Utah

Sounds like another high value guy who slipped in the draft. Nice pickup for Minnesota who have found a lot of holes in their secondary over the last few years due to injury, age, and flat out bad play.

Round 6
Demarcus Love, OL – Arkansas
Mistral Raymond, DB – South Florida
Brandon Fusco, OL – Slippery Rock
Ross Homan, LB – Ohio State

Am I happy that the Vikings waited until the sixth round to finally draft an offensive lineman? Absolutely not. Am I excited to see what a guy who attended a college named Slippery Rock can do? Absolutely yes. That might be the best college name I have ever heard. I want to know everything about that school now.

Ross Homan could end up being a great pick. In the little bit of footage I’ve seen of him, he’s got great footwork and is extremely quick for a guy his size. He was the captain of the Ohio State defense last year, which is definitely not something to take lightly. Homan looks to be a hard working guy who will fit great on special teams early and can hopefully find a solid role in the LB corps in the years to come.

Round 7
D’Aundre Reed, DL – Arizona
Stephen Burton, WR –West Texas A&M

I know absolutely nothing about these players. I can only hope they find their role on the team and can contribute anyway they can. It’s tough to expect a lot out of seventh round guys, can only hope they stick around and be productive.

The search has begun for the St. Louis Rams as they try to find someone to lead the team back to prominence and out of the cellar of the NFC West.

New general manager Billy Devaney will interview Green Bay assistant head coach/linebackers coach Winston Moss sometime this week to lead off the parade.

Moss has never been a coordinator in college or the NFL, but that is of little importance to Devaney, who told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the next coach of the Rams, first and foremost, “needs to be the leader in our building. He needs to change the atmosphere inside our building. This leader, whoever it is, has to reconnect with our fan base.”

That’s not saying that Winston Moss is the leading candidate for the spot vacated by the fired Scott Linehan, who gave way to interim coach Jim Haslett. But apparently Moss fits the criteria that Devaney has laid out.

Devaney will lean on an experienced group of football men as he canvasses the league for the right candidate. He said Tuesday that Bobby Beathard, a four-time Super Bowl-winning executive at Washington and his former boss at San Diego, will be a sounding board along with Rams director of player personnel Lawrence McCutcheon. In addition, former Big Red tackle and Hall of Famer Dan Dierdorf and former league MVP Marshall Faulk will be asked for their input.

Having those people in his corner will give Devaney the best chance at trying to pinpoint the right man for the job, not to mention, discover any warts that might be hidden by prospective candidates. He might be anxious to get an outsider’s opinion of Jim Haslett, who will also get to interview for the job he kept “cold” for the final 12 weeks of the season. Haslett went 2-10 during his audition and lost his last 10.

The fact that Devaney highlighted leadership in his criteria means he is more interested in substance rather than style points or trying to lure the circuit’s hottest coordinator.

Devaney was part of a coaching search last year when Atlanta was looking to replace Bobby Petrino. The Falcons interviewed the likes of Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan before settling on relative unknown Mike Smith, who was previously the defensive coordinator at Jacksonville. We know how that turned out — Smith’s Falcons won the NFC South a year after the franchise sank to new depths during the Michael Vick saga.

That’s proof that a struggling team doesn’t need to throw big bucks at someone like Bill Cowher to have success. They don’t have to have the hot name like Jason Garrett (last year), Steve Spagnuolo (last year and this year) or Josh McDaniels (see Spagnuolo).

Rex Ryan is an intriguing possibility. For the time being, he’s off limits because the Ravens are preparing for this week’s AFC Wild Card playoff game at Miami. Once the Ravens’ season is over, Ryan is worth taking another look at. He’s an excellent schemer who has been able to put pressure on offenses in 4-3 and 3-4 sets. Then again, he is able to deploy players such as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Bart Scott, Terrell Suggs. What do those players have in common? They don’t play for the Rams.

Is Ryan a “leader” who has the qualities that Devaney is looking for? Or is he the beneficiary of having premier talent at his disposal? If Devaney passes on Ryan again, we should know Devaney’s opinion. But picking his brain is worth the time and effort.

If I was pressed with compiling a list of candidates for the Rams, I would start with these two men:

Tennessee defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz — Schwartz has been the Titans’ defensive coordinator for eight seasons and is labeled as intense by some, a numbers freak by others. Bottom line, he has gotten great production out the Titans on defense the last two seasons.

Minnesota defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier — Frazier knows a thing or two about defense, having played for the Chicago Bears when they won the Super Bowl following the 1985 season. He helped turn around Philadelphia as an assistant before moving on to Cincinnati and Indianapolis, places where his charges showed marked improvement. He’s in his second season in charge of the Vikings’ defense and is well-respected around the league.

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