For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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“I love the NFL, and I need my start/sit advice for Week 13, but I’m just SO pumped for the Big Ten Championship game this weekend that I can’t even think about it!”

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Seriously…that’s all you have to do.  What have you got to lose? We’re even going to save you time by helping you out with your start em, sit em questions in this post and in the comment section!

Now on to week 13.

A Quick Piece of Advice…One More Time

There is no room left for excuses.  At this point in the season, we have ALL dealt with injuries.  We have ALL battled through our bye weeks.  We have ALL left points on the table.

If I could give you one piece of advice before the stretch run, it would be something I have emphasized all year: listen to expert advice…but trust your gut first.

Again, none of us have the time to really study fantasy football full time.  It is impossible (well, for those of us who have real jobs) to completely keep track of every single player, every matchup, every injury, and every game.  If you don’t have a good read on a player or a matchup, you should definitely consult “the experts.”

However, so much of fantasy football comes back to gut feelings.

If you have a gut feeling that Ryan Grant is going to run all over the Giants this week, and that gut is based on some stats or game play that you have actually seen, go for it!  Even if the expert disagrees, I would rather go down on my own terms.  Believe me, you will hate yourself if Grant goes off and you started Chris Johnson just because that’s what the expert said.

If you are ambivalent and have no opinion, seek counsel…but don’t be afraid to trust your gut on the tough calls.

Last Week’s Picks: 17 for 25 (68 %)

• Hits: Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, Mike Tolbert, KC Running Backs, Percy Harvin, Laurent Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Devin Hester, Jermichael Finley
• Misses:  Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Garcon (picked the wrong Colt), Mario Manningham, Johnny Knox, Kellen Winslow

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: QB

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow

Fantastic matchup against a Minnesota team that has been reeling lately without Adrian Peterson.

Tebow and the Broncos will be playing in the dome up in Minnesota, which means both he AND Von Miller will play even faster.  I expect Tebow to run wild and for Miller and the incredibly fast Broncos’ defense to force several turnovers.

If Tebow gets a few shots with a short field, he should put up a lot of points this week.

Still not convinced?  He’s 21st in points this year…after starting only 6 games. He’s only 11 points behind Jay Cutler.  Tebow is a must-start right now as the fantasy playoffs approach…amazing.

Tim Tebow Fantasy Projections for Week 13: 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Philly QB – Whether it’s Vick or Young, I think that the Eagles will explode in a game that doesn’t matter.
• Tony Romo – In Arizona, against their atrocious secondary.
• Alex Smith – Enticing matchup against St. Louis in a game that the 49ers want to win big in order to get their mojo back.

Sit Em QB: Matt Ryan

You might be tempted to start Matty Ice this week since Houston will be starting T.J. Yates with Jake Delhomme waiting in the wings.  While it’s true that Atlanta should get more chances than normal, Houston’s defense is one of the top five units in the league, and should make it incredibly tough sledding on Matt Ryan.

If Houston can control clock at all with their fantastic running game, Matt Ryan owners will be in for a long afternoon.

Matt Ryan Week 13 Fantasy Projection: 220 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Andy Dalton – He’s really good…but so is Pittsburgh’s defense.
• QB’s in the KC/Chi game – LOL…don’t even look at this game.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’ve been skeptical of Tebow from a fantasy standpoint ever since he took over the starting job, mostly because I worried about him getting pulled. But with a 5-1 record, the playoffs in reach, and Kyle Orton gone, Tebow is safe through the end of the year. And this is a great matchup, even though Minnesota’s strength is against the run. I’d play him.

I agree that Ryan’s potential is a bit muted this week. Loved him last week, lukewarm on him this week.

Tony Romo is a top 5 fantasy QB this week. Start him. With confidence. (Which means, since it’s Romo, that you should expect him to suck. Because wouldn’t that just be the Romo thing to do?)

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: RBs

Start Em RB: LeGarrette Blount

Blount is ranked 30th overall among fantasy running backs right now, so that makes him on the cusp of starting nearly every single week.  This week, he’s a must start against Carolina.

In fact, Blount may have the best fantasy week among ALL running backs in week 13.

Carolina’s run defense is so bad they made Donald Brown relevant last week.  Just imagine what someone with actual talent will do against them.

LeGarrette Blount’s Week 13 Projected Stats: 180 rushing yards, 2 TD; 55 receiving yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:

• LeSean McCoy – If he only gets ten rushes this week, we will all light ourselves on fire.
• Chris Johnson – He’s back, and facing the Buffalo defense.  Big week again for CJ2K.
• Denver Broncos….duh.

Sit Em RB: Shonn Greene

I admit that this is a complete hunch.  I try to base nearly all of my predictions on statistical evidence or game play that I have actually seen…but I feel compelled to put Shonn Greene on the bench this week.

First of all, Washington has a pretty decent defense, especially on the ground (13th in yards per attempt). Secondly, I really think that they will try to make Mark Sanchez win two consecutive games.  I really don’t think anyone will be fooled by his 4-TD performance last week.

Washington will force Sanchez to do it again in order for NY to win.  He might.  But Shonn Greene will have another lackluster effort.

Shonn Greene Week 13 Projection: 45 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Thirteen:

• Rashard Mendenhall – Pitt will have to win this game through the air against the Bengals.
• Detroit Running Backs – On the road in New Orleans…if this game isn’t high scoring, that means that the Saints won big.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, recommending Chris Johnson two straight weeks. I can’t believe it’s true, but it is. He seems safe. (Of course, what I really can’t believe is true is how quickly confidence has been lost in CJ. But such is the case when you have a season like he’s had.)

Be careful sitting Mendenhall. Certainly he hasn’t lived to the billing of a top 5 back (like some idiot analysts predicted before the season started…analysts who will remain nameless to protect our pride here at MSF) but he always has the potential for 80-90 yards and a score. That’s tough to find with a high degree of confidence this late in the season.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: WRs

Start Em WR: Antonio Brown

He has been a little hit or miss lately, but I think that he will have a great game against Cincinnati this week.

Brown is an absolute terror from the slot, and Cincinnati will definitely be trying to limit Mendenhall on the ground and Mike Wallace from any big plays.

Watch for Brown to play extremely well.

Antonio Brown fantasy football Week 13 projection: 9 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:

• Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers. (Yes, I copied this from the last two weeks…I still feel the same way, even though Miles Austin could play this week.)
• Eric Decker – If Tebow throws for more yards, and I think he will, Decker will definitely be the number one recipient.
• Vincent Jackson – This game might as well be meaningless for San Diego…so they should win by 60.

Sit Em WR: Dwyane Bowe

The Bears defense is good…and Tyler Palko is almost as good as me.

No…I’m not good at all.

Dwyane Bowe fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Thirteen:

• Julio Jones – Bad day for Matt Ryan AND him…Roddy White is the only ATL non-RB I like this week.
• Brandon Lloyd – I don’t know if you have heard, but San Francisco’s defense is really good.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I love Antonio Brown and am always willing to find an excuse to sit Dwayne Bowe, so I concur with those picks.

As for Lloyd, I love the 49ers defense, but I also love #1 WRs who have the trust of their QB. St. Louis will have to throw the ball, which means plenty of targets for Lloyd. Careful sitting him. He’s not a top 10 WR this week, but I think he’s still top 20.

Any #1 receiver against Minnesota is a good play, so Decker gets the nod this week.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: TEs

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen

The Tampa defense will do their best to limit Steve Smith this week, and Olsen will reap the benefits.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 13 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em TE: Owen Daniels

A lot of times, young QB’s = good days for Tight Ends.  But boy, is TJ Yates low on the totem pole.  Sure, he may not be Jake Delhomme, but…oh wait.

That’s right.  Jake Delhomme.

I will stop talking right now.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 13 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

One could also make the case that the young QB (or the old one, if Delhomme sees any action) will rely on his tight end more. Still, I wouldn’t trust any Houston pass catchers this week, and that includes Andre Johnson.

I continue to like Vernon Davis down the stretch, so consider him a top-10 option. Brent Celek is also a guy who is playing well and warrants consideration.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: D/ST

Start Em D/ST: Denver Broncos

Who would have thought that by Week 13 Tim Tebow would be a must-start and the Broncos’ defense would also be a must-start? Well, it’s happened. And with Denver’s relentless pass rush and solid secondary facing rookie Christian Ponder with perhaps no Adrian Peterson, the Broncos are a good choice yet again.

Denver Broncos fantasy football Week 13 projection: 14 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 2 turnovers

Other start ‘em D/ST units:

• The Patriots’ D is facing Indy. Start ‘em!
• Atlanta’s defense is a sneaky start this week. Their strength is stopping the run, which is what Houston does well. Surely they’ll be able to contain T.J. Yates. If you think Atlanta can hold Foster and Tate down, they’re worthy of starting.

Sit Em S/ST: Green Bay Packers and New York Giants

The Packers’ D isn’t a terrible option because they do force turnovers, but I expect this game to be high scoring with both quarterbacks putting up very good numbers. There just isn’t a lot of upside here on either side.

Packers and Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: Lots of points, lots of yards, a few turnovers for the Packers

Other sit ‘em D/ST units:

• Jacksonville’s season is over, their coach just got fired, and the Chargers come in trying to salvage some pride. I think they do, and put up a lot of primetime points on the Jags in the process.
• I was high on Seattle’s defense last week, then they gave up 20+ points at home to Washington. Philly and all of its weapons comes a calling this week. No thanks.

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Good luck in Week 13 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.

And remember: Go here and leave a comment! By doing so, you’ll be entered to win tickets to the Big Ten Championship game! (And enter quickly. We have to choose a winner tomorrow early afternoon.)

Six team byes have been scaled back down to four this week, so fewer players will be sitting out of your matchups, but it will still likely necessitate at least one or two touch decisions; decisions you shouldn’t take lightly, because while this may be the middle of the season for the players, our playoffs are right around the corner and crunch time is upon us.

Before I get to this week’s stock picks, I invite anyone to comment on this question because the answer eludes me: will Joe Flacco ever become an elite quarterback in the NFL?

His polarizing play has people worried, especially me, so let me know in the comments section.

Now we will let you know what is good in this week’s stock report.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Matt Cassel

Lol isn’t usually a term acceptable for sports blogging, but that is the only word someone can come up with when trying to describe the Dolphins’ pass defense.  Even losing Jamaal Charles for the season, Cassel’s production hasn’t skyrocketed nor plummeted, and he puts up good enough numbers to fill in for Stafford if you need him.

Philip Rivers

I promise that Rivers will have high stock until, well, who knows.  There is no way that he can continue to play this poorly for the rest of the year.  He threw for over 350 yards last week even though some unlucky interceptions came forth, but one of these days he is going to impress…hopefully.

Beanie Wells

The only thing that seems to be stopping Wells from becoming a top flight fantasy running back are his injuries.  During games that the Cardinals are competitive in, he can score you 14 to 20+ points.  The only problem with playing Wells is that the 1-6 Cardinals are out of games so fast that the running game gets put on the back burner and his abilities can get lost in the fold.

Michael Bush

This is somewhat of an obvious decision with the loss of Darren McFadden for the week, but Bush has always been a decent play.  His size allows him to be a goal line threat any time the Raiders are inside the red zone.  Playing against Tim Tebow should allow for many opportunities in Oakland.

Brandon Jacobs

Who knows why Tom Coughlin doesn’t give his 6-3 250 running back the ball more often, but this week should show some change with Ahmad Bradshaw out.  Jacobs has only carried the ball 10 times in a game once this year, but this is the week his production should benefit and score you around 10 points. He’s a solid fill-in for owners stuck without All Day or MJD this week.

Julio Jones

Has Julio lived up to the hype that was created when the Falcons threw the kitchen sink at the Browns to snag the rookie this past April?  The jury is still out on that one, but this could be the week that we see the young man have a breakout game against a Colts team that is so bad that almost nobody can watch.

Antonio Brown

The proof is in the pudding and this man has been performing week in and week out.  Keep things clear with simple logic this week: the Ravens probably won’t be able to go into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers on the road, and if Baltimore is going to shut someone down, it seems like Mike Wallace would be that guy.

Kellen Winslow

That first touchdown of the year can be tricky for tight ends but K2 got the job done.  The Bucs are going to have to keep up with the Saints if they want any success this week so plenty of targets could go to the veteran tight end.

Cardinals D/ST

30 point games have been the norm for Arizona, but playing against the Rams could be the perfect remedy.  Don’t think that the Rams can repeat their surprising Week 8 performance this week, so play the Cardinals’ defense with confidence.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Matt Schaub

This week will tilt in the favor of Arian Foster when going against the Browns weak front seven.  Superstar in the making Joe Haden blanketing Kevin Walter or Jacoby Jones (filling in for a still-sore Andre Johnson) won’t bode well for the passing game, so pedestrian numbers are most likely to come for Schaub.

Joe Flacco

As much as I love FLACCO, his stock has to be down.  Two subpar games against poor defenses makes this game against the Steelers look like the matchup from hell.  Although it doesn’t look as if he is going to throw 3 interceptions with a few fumbles again, this game still just has problems written all over it.

Matt Hasselbeck

Most of his games have been productive this year, but it looks as if he might have hit the permanent wall.  Depending on the state of the Titans after this game, whether they win or lose we could see the end of Hasselbeck’s starting career and the beginning of the Jake Locker era.  The Cincinnati Bengals defense doesn’t play around with opposing quarterbacks so this could get ugly.

LeGarrette Blount

Blount has a low stock this week strictly because of circumstance.  The New Orleans Saints blitz the scoreboard no matter who they play against, so if the Bucs want to win, keeping up is the only option.  Blount doesn’t contribute much in the way of the passing game so don’t be surprised when he posts pedestrian numbers.

Ray Rice

We all know about the Pittsburgh run defense, so this matchup looks fairly predictable.  Actually the whole Ravens offense looks like they are in trouble this week.  Now we may get proven wrong, but until this unit as a whole steps up, the guys on defense are going to be the ones who win this team the majority of its games.

Brandon Marshall

Miami is hard to watch.  Regardless of the fact that Marshall is the best player on the field, he can’t like where this team is going.  Too many losses late can put a team’s focus in the dumps, and as history has shown, when Brandon Marshall doesn’t like the situation chances are he is going to do what it takes to get out of it.

Jordy Nelson

Aside from the big game every other week, Nelson just doesn’t seem to get enough looks on the offense.  2 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown is a productive week yes, but what happens when those 2 catches equal out to just 30 yards?  It’s big risk, big reward for Jordy owners, and this week’s matchup with the Chargers doesn’t grade out well.

San Diego D/ST

This is pretty much a no brainer here.  Look at the obvious reasons.  Aaron Rodgers is on the other side of the field and Phillip Rivers has had many recent struggles that give the opposing team a lot of opportunities to score. Play someone else.

First, thank you to everyone who understood my main point: that it’s simply too early to say whether or not Timmy will be good or bad yet.  In no way was I trying to say that Tebow will be better than Elway, Marino, and Manning; my point was how do we REALLY know after only five starts?

Second, while Tebow’s struggles have been magnified because Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder have looked so good thus far as rookies.   I think we can all agree that all three of those guys have MUCH better weapons around them than anything the Broncos have this season.

• Cam Newton has FOUR offensive weapons that are better than anyone on the Broncos: Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Greg Olsen.
• Andy Dalton has three: AJ Green, Cedric Benson, and a fantastic defense (seriously…Dalton threw for 160 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs this week…and his team won by TWENTY-TWO!!!! The only way Tebow and the Broncos are doing that anytime soon is if they play Vanderbilt).
• As for the Vikings, Christian Ponder has the best non-QB offensive player in the game on his team (Adrian Peterson) as well as a receiver (Percy Harvin) who is better than anyone in Denver now that Brandon Lloyd is gone.

Once you factor in the defenses (Denver’s is second to last in the league when it comes to scoring defense and worse than Cincinnati, Carolina, and Minnesota in every single category), it shouldn’t surprise anybody that both Tebow and Orton have struggled in 2011 so far with the Broncos.

I guess what’s so troubling to me is the unforgiving stance everyone is taking with Tebow.  Look at the following two stat lines and tell me which QB you would rather have.

• QB #1 – 57 of 118 for 891 yards.  48% completion. 7.55  yards per attempt. 7 TDs, 3 INTs.
• QB #2 – 64 for 137 for 638 yards.  47% completion. 4.65 yards per attempt. 4 TDs, 2 INTs.

Though neither QB is all that desirable, anyone in his or her right mind would take QB #1, who has thrown for more yards, a slightly higher completion rate, and scored more TDs as well.  This is all before taking into account the fact that QB #1 outrushed QB #2 by a margin of 302 to 43 in those games as well.

In this example I’m comparing Tim Tebow to Blaine Gabbert – a guy who was drafted higher than Tebow and who has, so far, gotten through the media scope almost completely unscathed.  In fact, articles have been written explaining why he deserves a free pass for his entire first year.

Once again, I don’t necessarily think Tebow WILL make it as an NFL QB…but shouldn’t we at least make him earn our judgments either way?  Let’s extend to him the same long rookie leash that we give everybody else.

Onto this week’s start em, sit em picks!

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Advice for Week 9

Last Week’s Picks: 21 for 35 (60 %)

Note: last week’s top-line picks were made by Jerod

• Hits: Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Montario Hardesty, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, DeMarco Murray, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Steve Breaston, Eric Decker, Demariyus Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Brent Celek, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels
• Misses: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Johnson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Torain, Bernard Scott, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Scott Chandler.

As a quick reminder, the following teams have a bye during week 9:

• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Carolina
• Jacksonville

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Quarterbacks

Start Em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

Ryan is currently ranked as the 14th overall fantasy QB, meaning in most leagues he should be a backup.  Fortunately for Matty Ice owners, the Falcons are traveling to Indy this week, where they will face one of the worst pass defenses in history.

Start Matt Ryan with no regrets in week 9.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

Less Obvious Start Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Oakland)

Don’t laugh.

The Raiders have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league this year and have gotten into several shootouts with teams already.  I understand the lack of weapons in the Denver passing game may scare you, but Tebow performed pretty well against Oakland last year (150 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 2 TDs).

If you have a top 8 QB, you shouldn’t be starting Tebow, but if Matt Stafford or Cam Newton is your starter and thus is on a bye, don’t sweat starting Timmy in week 9.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 9 projection: 140 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, 2 total TDs (and probably two total turnovers also)

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Tony Romo – This week, the Romo Coaster goes back up against the Seattle Seahawks…before throwing his fans and owners off a cliff in week ten against the Bills.
• Philip Rivers – The Chargers will probably be playing from behind, and the Packers’ secondary has been very average so far.

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Pittsburgh)

Don’t be fooled into thinking that since he lit up the Steelers in week one, he will do it again.  He won’t.

I said it a few weeks ago, but I’ll say it again. If you didn’t think Dick LeBeau was a genius before this year, just consider that for over a decade the Steelers have been impossible to run against yet in 2012, as soon as the NFL became a full-fledged passing league, he transformed the Steelers’ defense into the league’s #1 ranked passing defense, allowing opponents a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt.  Unbelievable.

Stay away from Flacco this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 9 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick – Playing the Jets who are coming off a bye…yikes.
• Ben Roethlisberger – I think this week’s Steelers/Ravens game will be a true throwback affair.

Jerod’s thoughts

I love the Ryan pick, and I think he is a guy who owners need to keep an eye on as we move into the second half of the season. He hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback so far this year, but with a lot of dome games and some favorable matchups coming up, he could be a top-10 QB from here on out, which is all that matters.

As for Tebow, he certainly has more potential value this week than he did last week against the Suh and the Lions, but I think there is a lot of risk there. I want to see him play a decent game from start to finish before I trust my one QB slot to him. What if he’s awful and gets pulled at halftime? Without the backing of his own coaching staff, and how poor he’s looked, I can’t justify starting him unless I’m desperate.

And yes, sit Flacco. He couldn’t get a pass in the end zone last week versus Arizona, and now has zero TD passes in three of his last four games (and in the other game he had just one).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Running Backs

Start Em RB: Beanie Wells, Arizona (v St. Louis)

While I don’t necessarily love Beanie Wells’ prospects for the rest of the season due to his lingering injury issues, I really like him this week against the Rams.  St. Louis has proven to be vulnerable on the ground this season, and Beanie is coming off of a fantastic game against a very good defense in Baltimore.

Despite his lingering knee issues, look for Beanie to have one or two more good efforts before he tails off to end the year.

Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 9 projection: 95 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Michael Turner – Against the Colts…okay this one is too obvious, so let’s just ignore it and move on.
• LeGarrette Blount – At this point, it’s still a little early to completely trust Blount, but I really like the Bucs’ running game this week against a suddenly reeling Saints team.  New Orleans just got lit up on the ground against St. Louis, and the Bucs will be looking to keep Dreww Brees off the field as much as possible.  Give Blount your complete trust this week.

Sit Em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

I actually like Fred Jackson, who has yet to have a really bad day, a lot for the rest of the season.  However, now is as good a time as ever for that first clunker of 2011 with the Jets coming to town fresh off a bye.

Rex Ryan’s team hasn’t been as consistently good against the run this year as in years’ past, but it was a point of emphasis for their defense all week.  Look for Jackson and the entire Bills offense to have a tough time on Sunday.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Redskins’ Running Backs – I think Ryan Torain and Roy Helu can be good backs, but I also think that with John Beck starting the 49ers defense, which is already good against the run, will be able to send an 8th man into the box. This is not good news for the Redskins in real life or fantasy.
• Ryan Mathews – Just trust me that when the Chargers are down 21-0 with 12 minutes left in the second quarter, or Mathews is dinged up again, you will wish you had left him on the bench.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Beanie Wells is a very inviting start this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see him finish as a top 5 overall player this week. Except that I would…because I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratched from the starting lineup at the last second or removed midway through the game because of an injury. Such is life with Beanie Wells. This is a week to definitely have him in your lineup, but just remember to take nothing for granted on Sunday morning.

And while I agree with your basic premise that Fred Jackson could struggle this week, he’s not sitting on any of my rosters. The Jets have not been their previously dominant selves against the run, and Jackson has earned every-week start status for his ability to run and be a receiver out of the backfield. How many true lead backs are there anymore in the NFL? FJax is one. You better have two or three elite 2011 options if you’re even thinking about sitting him.

And I agree on Blount. A great option for this week, and a solid buy low candidate if you’re looking to make a trade.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Wide Receivers

Start Em WR: Julio Jones, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

At this point, you all know how I feel about Julio Jones.  I think he’s overrated.  I think AJ Green is 4x better than him.  I think Jones drops a lot of balls, and I think he’s a poor route-runner.

And that’s all well and good, but he’s still super-duper talented athletically…and he’s playing the Colts this week.  I expect at least two home run plays from him in yet another Colts blowout loss.

Julio Jones fantasy football Week 9 projection: 125 yards receiving, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine: 

• Plaxico Burress – He’s already a great target in the end zone, and I have a sneaky suspicion that he and the Sanchize got even MORE acquainted over their bye week.  Even if they didn’t, they are still playing the porous Buffalo passing defense.  Good day for Plaxico.
• Antonio Brown – Ed Reed will be shading towards Mike Wallace all game, and while that won’t completely shut down the speedster, I think that Antonio Brown will rise to the occasion like he did last week and catch a lot of balls underneath, as well as pick up another TD or two.

Sit Em WR: Stevie Johnson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

Revis Island.  Off a bye week.  Oh boy.

Stevie Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Nate Washington – Cincinnati has been surprisingly great against the pass, ranking fifth overall in passing defense.  Look for Washington to be bottled up, especially since the Titans lack a really reliable #2 option now that Chris Johnson has passed away.
• Patriots’ Wide Receivers not named Wes Welker – Uh oh…the Steelers just showed us that the Pats have absolutely no deep threat.  Needless to say, it’s not Welker’s, Hernandez’s, or Gronkowski’s fault.

Jerod’s thoughts:

At this point in the presentation, I can deduce two things: you think Atlanta is going to roughshod over Indianapolis (safe prediction) and you trust Rex Ryan and the Jets’ D to shut down a Buffalo offense that has been pretty good this year (a riskier but not outrageous bet). With that said, I agree with you on sitting Stevie Johnson, assuming someone has strong depth at WR. Stevie is not devoid of value, because he has a nose for the end zone, but Darrelle Revis has certainly locked down better receivers.

I also like Julio Jones this week. I don’t love him, because I think the Falcons have moved away from trying to force-feed him the ball. His targets will now come more in the flow of the offense, and if the Colts jump out to a big lead over Indy – a likely occurrence with Atlanta’s ability to run the ball – then they won’t need to take as many shots down the field. I think it’s a good matchup for Jones, but without the upside you seem to think.

One guy not mentioned that people need to keep their eye on is Michael Crabtree. He is healthy, and having Braylon Edwards opposite him will “take the top off the defense” as they say. Alex Smith looks at Crabtree first in the passing game. In PPR leagues especially, he will be golden for the rest of the year.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v New England)

After seeing Heath Miller step out of the time machine and look like a young Tony Gonzalez on Sunday, I’m willing to say that the Patriots have a VERY difficult time stopping opposing tight ends.  I fully expect Eli Manning to take note of that, and use Jake Ballard a lot, especially early on in Week 9.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Dustin Keller – He’s having a solid year so far, and Sanchez loves him nearly as much as Plax in the red zone.
• Vernon Davis – He will have a nice bounce back week against a Washington defense that is actually pretty good.  Look for Alex Smith to check down quite a bit to the big tight end.

Sit Em TE: Scott Chandler, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

There’s no way he scores any more TDs this week against the Jets.

Scott Chandler fantasy football Week 9 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’m now officially beginning to wonder if Rex Ryan wrote this article. You chose a Bill as your sit em RB, WR, and TE, and you mentioned the Bearded Wonder in your “other” section under the QBs. Jon, bro, we get it: you think the Jets’ defense is going to have a strong effort coming off the bye.

I love Ballard. Eli Manning always seems to turn his tight end into a fantasy relevant commodity as the season goes along. Same thing is happening here.

As for Chandler, he made me eat my disparaging words last week, but I agree with you that starting him would make me very nervous this week. He has value, because he’s always a TD threat, but it’s all or nothing with him. Just know that when you start him (and know that none of us can predict with any certainty when he will or will not find openings in the end zone).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: D/ST

[Editor's Note: because we would not allow Jon to pick the Jets’ defense as his “start ‘em” defense/special teams unit, he decided to boycott this last section of the post. What a baby. So these picks are made by Jerod.]

Start ‘em D/ST: Oakland Raiders (v Denver)

Every year I try to target specific offenses that are so inept as to make even mediocre defenses valuable for one week. The Broncos made the Dolphins’ rag-tag defense very valuable two weeks ago, and an already strong fantasy defense in Detroit become out-of-this-world valuable last week.

This week, the Broncos and struggling QB Tim Tebow face Oakland. The Raiders are physical up front, which is the same formula the Lions used to pressure Tebow last week. Until the young QB proves he can avoid sacks and fumbles, I’m starting any D going up against the Broncos.

Also working in your favor if you nab the Raiders: Jacoby Ford. He’s a weekly threat to get you a bonus TD.

Oakland D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 17 or fewer points allowed, 4+ sacks, 2+ turnovers, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I like both the Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses this week. I agree with Jon that this game will be an old school battle. (If by some chance you have to pick one or the other, go with Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco is playing far worse than Big Ben right now).
• I’d want to stay away from Washington offensive players this week against San Francisco, but the Washington defense isn’t a bad option. The 49ers have to travel cross-country and play an early game, which is rarely a good recipe for success for West Coast teams. And with San Fran already being more of a running team than an explosive passing team, it limits their potential to put up big scoring numbers, especially against a solid D like Washington’s.

Sit ‘em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v Dallas Cowboys)

I don’t know how many people have been employing the Seahawks D, but there was a groundswell of support for them a few weeks back because they are decent against the run. While that remains true, and the Seahawks have some decent matchups moving forward, I don’t like their chances against an angry, embarrassed Cowboys team that gets to lick its wounds at home this week.

The Cowboys’ offense isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought it would be coming into the season, but it’s much better than it showed last week. The poor Seahawks will feel the brunt of it this weekend.

Seattle D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 27+ points, 2 or fewer sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I wouldn’t want either the Giants or Patriots defenses going this week. That game just smells like one that gets into the 30s on both sides.
• The Jets’ D is not as obvious a start candidate as Jon would have you think it is, and I do not say this just to needle Jon. While I like the Jets’ D is general, they simply have not been a dominant unit this year, and the Bills have been a pretty consistent offense. I would not at all be surprised to see this game played in the 20s, which means the Jets would need a defensive TD or a bunch of sacks/turnovers to turn in a great day. It’s possible, but I don’t consider it likely.

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Best of luck to everyone in Week 9.

Make sure you also take a look at Andy’s waiver wire wire pickups for Week 9, and then load up the comment queue with questions. We’ll be around all week to answer them, and of course we’ll be here on Sunday morning to help out with those difficult last minute start/sit questions.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Lee Evans has not played most of the season because of an ankle injury. However, the Ravens are confident he will return this season. When that will be is another story. He’s not quite ready yet.

Running back Peyton Hillis of the Cleveland Browns missed his third straight practice Friday and is looks questionable for Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks. Hillis is dealing with a hamstring issue that has plagued him for awhile. Montario Hardesty would start in his place.

Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers are listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.

AFC South

Sorry Andre Johnson owners. The Houston Texans wide receiver will not play against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai practiced on Friday but is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. It’s a prime time game, so the best you can do is check before the noon games on Sunday and hope they’ve decided before you set your roster. Grab Delone Carter or even Donald Brown if you’re counting on Addai, so you can make a last minute switch if need be.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins running back Daniel Thomas is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos. Thomas continues to suffer from a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall is expected to play as well.

AFC West

Antonio Gates is expected to play Sunday against the New York Jets. This will be Gates first appearance since week 2.

NFC North

There are mixed reports for Chicago Bears wide receiver Earl Bennett. He is listed as probable. However, most reports note that his chest is still an issue he’s dealing with and that he will likely not play on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Jahvid Best has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons due to a concussion.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions. Jones is suffering from a strained hamstring. Tight end Tony Gonzalez, who was experiencing issues with his elbow, is listed as probable.

Tight end Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints was limited in Friday’s practice because of a sore ankle. He is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is listed as probable, after dealing with a toe injury. However, he practiced in full on Friday should play Sunday against the Washington Redskins.

LeGarrette Blount, running back for the Tampa Bay Bucs, is out for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears. Blount is dealing with a knee injury.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams quarterback, Sam Bradford, suffered an ankle sprain and is listed as a game time decision for Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Alright fantasy fans. Get to it! And good luck!

AFC North

For those of you who have been eagerly awaiting the return of Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall, you shall wait no more. Perfect timing too, as the Steelers take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens Lee Evans, wide receiver, did not practice on Thursday after being limited at practice on Wednesday. He’s missed the past two games with an ankle injury. With this probable setback, I wouldn’t expect him to play against the Houston Texans on Sunday.

AFC South

Matt Schaub, quarterback for the Houston Texans, was limited at practice on Thursday but claims he will play on Sunday against the Ravens.

The Indianapolis Colts were hit hard with loss of Peyton Manning and, not too long after, Kerry Collins. No worries, Curtis Painter has been named starting quarterback for the rest of the season. However, it looks like running back Joseph Addai will not play on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. He sat out of practice again on Thursday after suffering a strained hamstring.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Donald Jones is out for at least four weeks after suffering an ankle sprain in last Sunday’s game.

Rookie Daniel Thomas, running back for the Miami Dolphins, returned to practice on Tuesday after missing week 4 and having a bye on week 5. I’d still be cautious about throwing Thomas in your lineup though. Check before games start on Sunday.

New England running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis sat out of Thursday’s practice with a toe injury. Green-Ellis was limited at practice on Wednesday, so it’s hard to say if he’ll be up for Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.

NFC North

Greg Jennings, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers, was limited at practice on Thursday. Jennings is expected to play on Sunday against the St. Louis Rams.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons have some decisions to make before Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers. Without wide reciever Julio Jones, who suffered a hamstring injury last week, the Falcons are looking to wide receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez to step up to the plate. However, both White and Gonzalez have been dealing with injuries of their own.

Running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LeGarrette Blount, will not play in Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. It sounds like the Bucs will put in Earnest Graham to help fill Blount’s void.

NFC East

Miles Austin, wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys, practiced in full on Wednesday. He is expected to play on Sunday against the New England Patriots.

The New York Giants running back, Brandon Jacobs, is dealing with a knee sprain and sat out of both Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills.

NFC West

The San Fransisco 49ers lost wide receiver Josh Morgan last Sunday to a fractured leg. Morgan will be out the rest of the season.

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Click to see the complete NFL Week 6 injury report.

Make sure to check back to MSF periodically, as we’ll post late-breaking injury updates here and on Twitter (@FantasyMSF). Happy Week 6!

Andre Johnson is gone.  Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.  Miles Austin is on the mend.  Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?

With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost.  If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings.  But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug.  Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.

So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.

As always, let’s briefly recap last week’s picks just to see how we did.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Four Recap

Overall – 29 for 47 (62%)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Megatron and Rob Gronkowski
• Misses: Matt Stafford and Adrian Peterson

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Greg Olsen
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress (Thanks a lot…Sanchez…)

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 12 for 16

• Hits: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, and Tony Gonzalez
• Misses: Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, and Jermichael Finley.

Worst Player Predictions: 0 for 4

• Misses: Kyle Orton, Texans’ Running Backs (HUGE MISS…sorry guys), Sidney Rice, and Owen Daniels

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 4

• Hits: Joe Flacco
• Misses: Ray Rice (Never will I ever doubt him again), Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 12 for 15

• Hits: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Cowboys’ Running Backs, Chad Ochocinco, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow
• Misses: Denver Running Backs, Steve Smith 1.0, and Benjamin Watson

And now onto the Week 5 start em, sit em picks.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em Projections

One brief change this week:

As you know, Jerod did the Start/Sit column the last two years before handing the keys to me this year. He still edits the column before it’s posted though, and helps out in the comment section answering questions throughout the week. And while we agree on the majority of these picks, there are some spots where we differ, and we think it will add value to the column to have him chime in with alternate viewpoints when he has them.

So at the end of each position section, you’ll see a blockquote with Jerod’s quick-hit thoughts on the picks, especially any he strongly disagrees with. As always when it comes to our fantasy advice, MSF is an ego-free zone where helping readers put the best possible lineup together is the goal. This is just one more way we can work together to do that.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 5:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• St. Louis
• Miami
• Washington
• Baltimore

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Michael Vick

Vick started to look like the Vick of last season on Sunday, and his team still got the loss.  Buffalo’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as they have been torched by several teams already this season.  Look for Vick to try and put the Eagles on his shoulders as they travel to Buffalo trying to save their season.  The Eagles may not win, but Vick should have a MONSTER day.

Michael Vick Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 380 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1INT; 85 rushing yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Philip Rivers

I almost feel like this is cheating, but Rivers is only ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks.  Look for him to start moving up the charts this week in Denver.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 350 yards, 3 TDs

Other Guys I Like:

• Eli Manning – At home against Seattle.
• Drew Brees – On the road in Carolina.
• Curtis Painter – Played well in his debut, and will be doing his best against the Chiefs to make sure the Colts don’t finish with the worst record in the league.
• Mark Sanchez – The Pats’ defense is beyond banged up right now…and they weren’t all that good to begin with – especially against the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Cam Newton

No, this is not one of those “He can’t really be this good!  He’s going to fail eventually!” picks… I have actually been very impressed by the youngster so far this year.  Unfortunately, the Saints’ defense will be unlike anything he has played so far.  The Packers were definitely a better defense, but they played very vanilla against him.  He has never faced a defense that will attack him like New Orleans will this Sunday.  I think Newton will go on to have a very good season, but not this week against New Orleans.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 180 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs; 45 rushing yards, 2 fumbles

Sit Em – Tom Brady

Just hear me out.  Obviously, if you have Tom Brady, you probably don’t have a reliable backup.  That’s ok.  He could still get you 15 to 18 fantasy points this week.  However, if you are in a small league, and you were able to pick up someone like Matt Stafford as a backup, you should look very seriously at benching Brady this week, and it has everything to do with the Patriots’ Week 5 opponent and Brady’s checkered history against them.

The Jets have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and Darrelle Revis will be able to shut down Wes Welker better than anyone else in the league.  That leaves Brady with only Rob Gronkowski as a legitimate weapon all day, and the Jets will be licking their chops to rush Brady if New England only has five guys protecting him.

Plus, consider Brady’s last five starts against the Jets:

• 2010 Playoffs: 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• 2010 Week 2: 248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2010 Week 13: 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 11: 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Based on the averages, Brady will still throw for 250 yards, and may even have a few TDs…and of course he has the potential to throw a 4 TD gem against anyone…but the Jets have also proven that more often than not they at least pull Brady back to the pack; thus, there could definitely be much better options than him for your lineup this week.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers are just bad, and he’s banged up.
• Donovan McNabb – I’m just trying to pad my stats for next week…
• Matt Ryan – They might lose by 50 points to Green Bay.
• Jay Cutler – Detroit’s defensive line will make him dance by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Everything here sounds reasonable, including Jon’s thoughts on Brady (who I’d still start though, personally), but I disagree on Matt Ryan. He and the Falcons offense are much better at home and in domes, and the Green Bay defense is giving up a lot through the air. I say start Ryan. He’s a top 10 QB this week.

———-

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville is just awful, and they will ride Mo-Joe until he falls over in the second quarter during week 8.  I feel bad for the guy, having his prime ruined on lousy teams.  Fortunately, his fantasy owners will make good – especially this week against Cincinnati.

Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 180 yards, 1 TD; 80 yards receiving

Start Em – Joseph Addai

He’s quietly had a pretty decent year, despite all of the upheaval in Indy.  The Colts’ offense should move a little more fluidly with Curtis Painter as well.  To top that off, Indy will be playing Kansas City in a game that the Colts foolishly think they need to win.  Colts’ fans will watch in horror as Indy ruins their chances at Andrew Luck.

Joseph Addai Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 135 yards, 1 TD; 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Darren Sproles – He’s just so fast…and Carolina’s LBs are hurt.
• LeGarrette Blount – San Francisco is actually sneaky decent…Tampa Bay will be forced to grind it out more than normal.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – He might have 150 yards receiving against the Pats.
• Mike Tolbert – Playing Denver…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer – Rashard Mendenhall

He’s awful, and Tennessee is good.

Rashard Mendenhall Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 10 yards rushing

Sit Em – Michael Turner

Remember the last time Green Bay played Atlanta, on that fast turf, indoors, and jumped out to a huge lead, and rendered Michael Turner unusable against a defensive line that was already amazing at stuffing the run?  Oh.  Me neither…

Michael Turner Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 25 yards rushing; 15 yards receiving

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Shonn Greene – Not a great matchup against NE.
• BJGE – Pats won’t have a good day on offense.
• James Starks – The Packers don’t run the ball…and they don’t need to.
• Matt Forte – Detroit’s defensive line will make him cry by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Joseph Addai has been surprisingly effective this season, and I like him as a flex option this week, perhaps even over Mendenhall (who I’m growing to hate), but I personally would not start him over Michael Turner. I know the Packers held him down in the playoffs last year, but in Week 12 of 2010 he had over 100 yards and a TD against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome, and Green Bay’s defense is not nearly as good this year. Hell, let me just say it: I like everyone in the Packers-Falcons game, and with Turner averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year, I can’t recommend sitting him.

———-

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

I will continue to pick him every week until he becomes human.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 TDs.

Start Em – Deion Branch

If the Jets do what I think they will do, I think Branch will have a breakout game of sorts.  Look for Gronkowski and Welker to be neutralized, and Branch to have a pretty decent game.

Deion Branch Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD.

Other Guys I Like

• Reggie Wayne – Got a lot of targets last week with Painter, and should have a favorable matchup against anyone on KC.
• Hakeem Nicks – Huge game for him.
• AJ Green – He’s unbelievable…I keep telling you.
• Devery Henderson – Despite registering zero catches last week, Carolina won’t be able to stay in front of him and Henderson will bounce back.

Projected Worst Performer – David Nelson

Nnamdi Asomugha finally justifies the money that was spent on him this summer.

David Nelson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Pierre Garcon

Don’t chase TDs!  He only had two catches on Monday Night, and although they ended up being two giant home runs, he only caught the ball one-fourth of the time it was thrown to him.  Believe me, this is hard for me to say, because Pierre is my favorite player.  I may or may not have spent more than 100 bucks on a Super Bowl jersey with his name and number that ended up being a curse against the Saints.  Either way, don’t be fooled by his “big game” against Tampa.  He’s hit or miss…and this week is a miss.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 0 catches

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Wes Welker – Bad game by his standards.
• Victor Cruz – Stop drinking the Cruz kool-aid…right now…at least for one more week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough game for Newton and the Panthers.
• Jacoby Jones – Don’t be fooled…he won’t have a break out game, no matter who is hurt on his team.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

So long as people make sure to still start Wes Welker – because you can’t sit him right now – I’m fine with him being in Jon’s dislike section. I also agree on Garcon. Don’t overreact to one big week and a couple of fluky touchdowns. As for Nelson, the question is who will Nnamdi cover? The Eagles play a lot of zone, which has been part of their secondary’s downfall since they have a lot of good cover corners. And I agree on Branch. I thought he’d bounce back last week, but I think it comes this week with one of Brady’s favorite all-time targets getting the 3rd or 4th best cover option on the Jets.

———-

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jermaine Gresham

He’s really good and the Jaguars are really bad.

Jermaine Gresham Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection: 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em – Brandon Pettigrew

I watched, first hand, two weeks ago as the Chicago Bears proved they couldn’t guard tight ends and Jermichael Finley went off.  Look for Pettigrew to have a big day in a huge Monday Night Football game that the city of Detroit deserves.

Brandon Pettigrew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton’s security blanket all game against the blitzing Saints.
• Dallas Clark – Let’s just hook everybody up the the Curtis Painter rejuvenation machine!
• Owen Daniels – He’s the guy that will get more looks with Andre Johnson being out.
• Scott Chandler – I know I always say not to chase TDs…but I think he grabs one or two this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Heath Miller

When Tight Ends lose it…they LOSE it…and Heath Miller has lost it.

Heath Miller Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 1 catch for 8 yard

Sit Em – Vernon Davis

Tampa Bay did a great job of locking down Dallas Clark, and they should have similar success against the 49ers.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 40 yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• I originally picked Jimmy Graham, but as I thought about it, I started to have second thoughts.  Then, I read Jerod’s thoughts below, and completely agreed.  There really aren’t any of the big name tight ends that I dislike this week…so I am sticking to Davis and these other two guys.
• Jeff King – Rough day for Arizona
• Jeremy Shockey – One get enough looks against New Orleans.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, you can’t sit Jimmy Graham. Sorry Jon, but I disagree here strongly. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes this year and he’s had over 100 yards the last two weeks. He’s also scored three times. The reality is that Graham, not Colston, not Meachem, not Moore, not Henderson, is Drew Brees’ #1 target right now. Also, I’d think long and hard before sitting Vernon Davis. Alex Smith gained a lot of confidence last week, and Davis remains the best receiving threat on the team. If you’re going to sit him, make sure it’s for someone the caliber of Gronkowski, Pettigrew, or Graham. Remember: talent usually wins out over time, and few tight ends are as talented as Vernon Davis.

**********

As always, feel free to ask your questions in the comment section and I will do my best to respond.  Or, you can send them to me on twitter anytime: @The_Dr_Twitch.

Here is how it will work: I will run down some of the recommendations I gave leading into the previous Sunday that worked as well as some that didn’t; then, more importantly, the comment section will then be yours to dole out “thanks” to any MSF writer who gave you a good recommendation or to call out a “shank” of a recommendation that hurt your team that week.

Hopefully this can be done all in good fun and serves as a way to crystallize lessons that can be learned from picks that worked and from those that didn’t. Just remember when you call us out for a “shank” that the ultimate decision was yours, so try to be fair in doling blame. But know that we do take our recommendations seriously and work hard to make good ones, and we’re happy to be temporary online pinatas if you need to do a little venting.

Week 2 “Thanks”

Here are a few of the Week 2 recommendations that I bet people will be thanking me for:

• I told numerous people to start Devery Henderson over the likes of Plaxico Burress, Percy Harvin, and others because of Marques Colston’s absence and Henderson’s superb Week 1 performance. He responded by having a decidedly Devery day: 3 catches, 103 yards, 1 touchdown.
• Despite an awful Week 1 performance and the presence of the Eagles’ superb cornerbacks, I recommended Matt Ryan to a number of people based on his excellent history at home. Ryan responded with only 195 yards but four touchdowns. Overall, a very solid fantasy day.
• LeGarrette Blount owners were readying themselves to jump off of tall building all week, but I implored them to not overreact. Blount only got five carries in Week 1 because Tampa Bay fell behind early and was facing the juggernaut that is the Lions’ front four. Still, Blount own coach admitted it was a mistake to abandon Blount so early. All signs pointed to a bounceback performance, and it happened. Blount still only got 13 carries but he turned them into 71 yards and a two touchdowns, a great fantasy day.
• Even after he only caught one pass in Week 1, I think I recommended Jeremy Maclin to anyone who asked me about him. Maclin responded by catching 13 balls for 171 yards and 2 TDs. Have patience with proven players, my friends.
• Fred Davis snared six passes for 86 yards and a TD. I recall recommending him to a number of people.

Week 2 “Shanks”

But, as always, even the most logical and well-thought out recommendations did not turn out as planned. Here are a few of my Week 2 recommendations I shanked and that I’m sure more than a few people would like to bop me on the head over:

• I really thought Jay Cutler was going to have a good day for the Bears. The Saints’ D had been getting torched, and I knew Cutler would have to throw to keep up with Brees and Co. Unfortunately, I underestimated just how crappy the Bears’ O-Line would play on the road against a blitz-happy defense. Cutler finished a putrid 19-45 with 1 TD.
• I recommended Buffalo’s D to a few people after picking them up for myself in a few leagues. I thought the West Coast-to-East Coast jet lag and the Raiders’ lack of a passing attack would keep their scoring down. How wrong I was. I regret this decision because it violated my own tenets of logic and making players/units prove it on the field. What had Buffalo really proven against Kansas City? Nothing.
• I told anyone who would listen that I don’t trust rookie WRs and wouldn’t start AJ Green even though he caught a TD in Week 1. Green responded by catching 10 passes for 124 yards and a TD from his fellow rookie QB. I don’t regret this recommendation because distrusting rookies works more than it doesn’t, but it may be time to start considering Green an exception to that rule.
• I told a number of people that I thought Brandon Lloyd would play and be a good start option. He didn’t even play. Now that’s a shank.
• Felix Jones. There, I said it. Let’s just move along before I get angry and throw something.

Those are just a few of the recommendations, good and bad, that I remember giving multiple times before yesterday’s Week 2 action. The comment section is now yours to thank me or shank me, or to do either to any other writer on this site.

Let’s get it out of our system now so that as soon as the Rams-Giants MNF game ends tonight we can turn our collective attention to Week 3.

I also takes a look at ESPN’s rankings and picks out a few guys at each position that he agrees with and disagrees with.

Also, stay tuned: we will be taking live callers on future episodes of the podcast. For more details, follow @FantasyMSF.

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You only have one job left to do: start the right guys.

Nothing could be worse than having an awesome team…on your bench.

Each and every one of us has a fantasy sob story or two, and it’s almost a guarantee that one of them revolves around sitting the wrong guy.

So who are you going to start this week?

If you haven’t signed up yet to participated in the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, click here to do so now! (For more information click here.)

It’s free to enter, you get to compete against MSF writers and readers, and $250 in prizes will be awarded. What could be better than that?

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice

Obviously, if you have Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, or Larry Fitzgerald, he will be in your starting lineup. But who is going to have a better week THIS week? Pierre Garcon or Malcom Floyd? Mike Tolbert or Shonn Greene?

Overall season predictions won’t help you win this week; so as we do every week here at Midwest Sports Fans, here are the guys to start and sit in Week 1.

One theme you will see this week is that I am really downplaying two groups of players: players on new teams and rookies.

While Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Mark Ingram may very well become great players, I just don’t see them doing much early on this season. Rookies already have a hard enough time adjusting to the NFL. Now you add a four month lockout, and it’s almost an insurmountable deficit they have to make up.

(The “Projected Worst Performer” – a new wrinkle in our Start/Sit coverage this year, is obviously chosen from among guys who will be in their team’s starting lineup this week. Of course a guy like Brady Quinn will be a poor performer…but hopefully, nobody will be starting him this week.)

As always, follow me on twitter @The_Dr_Twitch and @FantasyMSF for updates on this week’s fantasy goings on and to get any last minute lineup questions answered.  Or feel free to comment at the bottom and I will try to answer as many of your thoughts as possible.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Quarterbacks

Projected Top Performer: Philip Rivers

My overall #1 QB should have a fantastic week at home against a soft Minnesota secondary. He may get sacked a few times, but he will also hit on at least two or three home run balls.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 340 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Chad Henne

I actually don’t think he’s as bad as everybody thinks, but the Patriots should win this game walking away and their new and improved defense will absolutely love pinning their ears back and getting to the QB throughout the entire second half.

Chad Henne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 150 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs

Now for the tough calls:

Week One Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger

Don’t be too scared by the “vaunted” Baltimore defense. A quick look at their lineup reveals a lot of flashy names and not nearly as much production. While Ed Reed will still be running around and may even come up with an interception, Big Ben and his new and improved passing attack should be flying on all cylinders. Look for Baltimore to do a reasonably good job stuffing the run and Pittsburgh to adjust accordingly by throwing the ball all over the field.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 285 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start Em QBs for Week 1:

• Tom Brady (#2 by a hair)
• Colt McCoy (home against Cincinnati)
• Matthew Stafford (will explode at Tampa)
• Matt Schaub (no run against Indy? No problem)
• Jay Cutler (shootout with Atlanta)
• Matt Ryan (see Cutler, Jay).

Week One Sit Em QB: Tony Romo

It pains me – as a guy that drafted Tony Romo and NO OTHER QBs in his own league – to say this, but Romo will not have a good Week 1. I’m actually very high on Romo this year, and have him as the sixth ranked overall QB, but I don’t think he will be able to overcome everything in New York Sunday night.

Not only is the Jets’ pass defense one of the best in the league, but you also have the whole “9-11” thing. A few years ago, the Saints played the Falcons at home, shortly after Hurricane Katrina. It wouldn’t have mattered if the All-Madden Team walked out onto that field that day…the Saints weren’t losing. I have the feeling it will be more of the same in Week 1.

Look for Romo to have a decent amount of yards, but break down late near the red zone.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 245 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit em QBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Manning (obvious reasons)
• Michael Vick (on the road…in a dome…against an underrated defense…without a few weapons)
• Josh Freeman (Detroit’s line will be too much)
• Mark Sanchez (he’s just not good)
• Joe Flacco (Pittsburgh has his number).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Running Backs

Projected Top Performer: Jamaal Charles

To be honest, Charles would be my #1 running back if I wasn’t so scared about him getting hurt or worn down halfway through the season. Good thing for Charles owners he opens up the season at home against the Buffalo Bills.

He is probably the best home-run threat in football outside of Chris Johnson, and if your league rewards big plays, Charles could REALLY stand out in Week 1. I could easily see Charles rushing for over 200 yards, a-la Arian Foster last year against the Colts.

Jamaal Charles Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 22 carries for 190 yards and 2 TDs; 4 Receptions for 39 yards and 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Fred Jackson

There’s just not a lot going Jackson’s way this weekend. First, he’s not that good. Secondly, he has no quarterback so an already good run defense in Kansas City will be able to load the box against him. Third, CJ Spiller will probably be a better matchup against the Chiefs’ defense so FJax will get less touches. Fourth, I expect KC to win handily. And fifth, he’s not that good.

Fred Jackson Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 9 carries for 23 yards; 2 catches for 12 yards

Week One Start Em RB: Tim Hightower

He recently won the starting running back job in Washington and will be rushing in Mike Shanahan’s famous “zone blocking” scheme. You might be scared to start him week one because of Ryan Torain and Roy Helu; and I agree that eventually, as Torain and Helu will end up stealing carries from Hightower, but not until later on in the year. Helu is still a rookie that missed an entire summer’s worth of practice. Shanahan will need to rely on a running back that can pick up the Giants’ pass rush and Hightower will do the job. Also, the Giants’ rush defense is surprisingly mediocre, and Washington will rely heavily on the running game as long as John Beck and Rex Grossman are their quarterbacks. Don’t be scared to start Hightower early on in the season as the talented Helu struggles to learn the offense.

Tim Hightower Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 18 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD; 5 catches for 34 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Hillis (home against Cincinnati)
• DeAngelo Williams (look for him to get a lot more touches now that he is healthy and Fox has moved on)
• LeSean McCoy (only player for Philly that will have a good game in a shocking loss at St. Louis)
• Chris Johnson (I think he sends a message to all the “fake” Tennessee fans).

Week One Sit Em RB: Ray Rice

Rice is my #4 ranked RB, and he will have a fantastic year, but facts are facts: nobody runs against the Steelers. Rice will probably be a decent threat out of the backfield, and may end up getting close to 80 yards on the ground and in the air, but that’s not exactly what you are hoping for out of your #1 running back.

You may not have much depth at the RB position, and you may feel compelled to start your first round draft pick…but don’t be scared. Nobody runs against the Steelers, not even Rice. Sit him with confidence, and try to hit a home run with a wild card.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 12 carries for 42 yards; 4 catches for 18 yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 1:

• Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh will begin throwing early and often against the Ravens)
• Knowshon Moreno (as soon as McGahee gets hurt, Moreno will break out…but the platoon system will hurt his value early on)
• Arian Foster (obvious reasons)
• Colts running backs (Houston will load up against the run with no Peyton Manning)
• LeGarrette Blount (Two words: Ndomakong Suh).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Larry Fitzgerald

Kevin Kolb isn’t great…but he is better than me…and that’s really all Fitzgerald needs this season…especially against the Panthers in Week One.

Larry Fitzgerald Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 11 catches for 176 yards and 2 TDs

Projected Worst Performer: Dwayne Bowe

Not that it will hurt the Chiefs in any way…but I really don’t expect KC to be throwing the ball around too much against the Bills. Look for them to march out to a comfortable lead, and Bowe to take a backseat in the offense, at least for one day.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 35 yards

Week One Start ‘Em WR: Reggie Wayne

Yes, I’m serious.

The Colts will definitely struggle in Week 1, especially without Peyton Manning. Houston will almost definitely stack the box to stuff the run, and if they get an early lead, the Colts will be forced to throw the ball a lot. Whether it’s Painter or Collins, one thing is for sure: Wayne will have a good day.

He has been outspoken in his defense of Painter, and Painter has clearly trusted him in the pre-season. Clark, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez may have bad days, but you can start Reggie with confidence this week.

Reggie Wayne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 14 catches for 145 yards

Other Start Em WRs for Week 1:

• Calvin Johnson (statement win for Detroit)
• Mario Manningham (he and Nicks will take turns having mammoth games…it’s Super Mario Week in Week 1)
• Brandon Marshall (Dolphins will be playing from behind so he’ll rack up yards)
• Percy Harvin (probably 8 catches…and he gets to return the ball against San Diego)
• Roddy White (obvious reasons)
• Johnny Knox (shootout in Chicago).

Week One Sit ‘Em WR: Dez Bryant

It was either him or Miles Austin, and I think Revis Island will settle on Bryant for most of the night. Romo still trusts Miles Austin a little more, and will look to him and Jason Witten on hot routes while trying to escape pressure all night.

It’s definitely possible that Bryant will be able to make something happen in the return game on Sunday night, but if not, look for Bryant to have a frustratingly poor opening night.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 2 catches for 14 yards; 1 rush for -2 yards

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 1:

• Greg Jennings (just a weird game for the Packers…I think their rushing attack and role players get more touches against Sean Payton and Gregg Williams’ D)
• Anquan Boldin (because Joe Flacco’s awful)
• AJ Green (not yet…just wait for him)
• Santonio Holmes (because Mark Sanchez is awful)
• Mike Thomas (new QB in Jax).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Jason Witten

Romo and his best friend will connect on a lot of underneath passes all game long. If Witten can even get into the end zone once, he should have a huge day.

Jason Witten Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 12 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD

Week One Start Em TE: Aaron Hernandez

I have been very outspoken about Hernandez, so I will just keep it simple with facts: nobody in the entire league has caught more balls than him this pre-season; he’s the more talented of the two tight ends in New England and wants to prove it this season; and Tom Brady will be throwing the ball all over the place against Miami.

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 8 catches for 110 yards and 2 TDs

Other Start Em TEs for Week 1:

• Vernon Davis (against Seattle)
• Owen Daniels (against the Colts)
• Jimmy Graham (GB shuts down the Saints’ WRs and Graham gets a lot of touches)
• Greg Olsen (Cam Newton’s new best friend)
• Brandon Pettigrew (everyone in Detroit will have a good fantasy week).

Week One Sit Em TE: Jermichael Finley

Finley has been getting lots of love this season because in the past he’s been a TD machine. However, Aaron Rodgers adapted quite well without him, and with the extended lockout I think it will take Finley a few weeks to find his niche in the offense again. Finley won’t have a HORRIBLE week, but he won’t be blowing anyone away either if you another good option.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 43 yards

Other Sit Em TEs for Week 1:

• Zach Miller (normally, bad QBs equate to good days for TEs…but Tarvaris Jackson hasn’t even attained the “bad QB” level yet)
• Marcedes Lewis (I just don’t think he’s good, and the new QB will be rough for him)
• Tony Gonzalez (you are starting him for his name, and nothing else…so don’t start him
• Dallas Clark (rough day for the Colts and Dallas)

So there you have it. The first Start Em, Sit Em post for 2011 is in the books. The comment section is now yours.

Best of luck in Week 1 everybody!

Like I said before, it’s not that fun to draft Ichiro.  You know exactly what you’re getting.  (Or at least you used to know, before this season.) On the flip side, thinking about Jason Heyward’s upside gives us all visions of glory.

But when it comes to drafting running backs for your fantasy football team this year, save the “sleepers” for other positions.

Assuming you are in a 10 to 12 team league, or a fun weekly challenge game like FanDuel, and you have to start at least two running backs, it won’t be good enough to simply know which guys are in the top five.

Here are my top 25 running backs for 2011, along with some guys I think you should stay away from. The latter group is who we’ll start with.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: The “Stay-Aways”

• Mark Ingram – The Lockout will hinder rookies greatly this year.  The rookie running back slump continues, even though the kid has unreal talent.
• Joseph Addai – As a Colts fan, I think I speak for everyone else in Hoosier Country when I say, “You just can’t trust this guy.”
• All Other Colts’ Running Backs – If you need me to explain this one, you have probably never played fantasy football.
• Jonathan Stewart – Just a hunch, but I think the Panthers will try to justify spending a billion dollars on DeAngelo Williams…if only for this season.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Also a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to be high-flying, just like they were in their 18-1 season.  Expect a lot of passing, yards, and scoring…through the air.
• CJ Spiller – At this point, he’s destined to become a homeless man’s Devin Hester.  And in a league that no longer has kickoff returns, that isn’t a good thing.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – Eight steps beyond washed-up at this point.
• Daniel Thomas – See Ingram, Mark.
• Fred Jackson – I just don’t see the Bills leading a lot of games this year.  Their running game and Mr. Jackson will suffer.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #21-25

The boring guys who will win you games

• Marshawn Lynch
• Ryan Mathews
• Mike Tolbert
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Shonn Greene

Ironically, these guys are all pretty similar.  Most of them like to pound it inside and eat up short yardage situations.  Expect all of them to be able to punch it into the end zone for you as well.

Of these five, Greene has the most upside since the Jets will likely be good, but Sanchez will still struggle, causing them to rely heavily on their defense and running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #16-20

Your “all or nothing” guys…that will win you weeks, and break your heart.

• Jahvid Best
• Felix Jones
• Knowshon Moreno
• Ryan Grant
• LeGarrette Blount

These guys are all on the same level to me. 

Best intrigues me the most because I feel that he has the most raw talent of the bunch…but as we are all well-aware, his injury history will scare many away.

I really think this could be Knowshon Moreno’s breakout year, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up as a top seven running back…though the QB situation will make his job that much more difficult.

Beware of Ryan Grant.  The Packers’ RB was injured for most of last season, and he will come back hungry, ready to show everyone that he is, in fact, very important to his team’s success.  Also, it’s probably a safe bet that Green Bay will be winning a lot of games this year, and Grant will be benefactor #1.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #11-15

It’s just not fun taking them, but you can’t let them slide past you.

• DeAngelo Williams
• Frank Gore
• Matt Forte
• Steven Jackson
• Peyton Hillis

None of these guys will earn you high praise on draft night, but they will all give you an easy 1000 yards, 8 TDs, and receptions out of the backfield.  Again, the lockout will affect a lot of young guys, players on new teams, and players with new coaches.

While Williams, Gore, and Hillis are all playing for new coaches, they will definitely be one of the foundational elements that their coaches are hoping to build upon.  Gore, Forte, and Jackson are about as “Ichiro-esque” as you can get.  Barring injury, expect solid numbers from them across the board.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #10

I have to place him this high, but I’m scared to death of him myself.

• Michael Turner

It’s possible he’s past his prime.  It’s possible that all of the carries the past few years have killed his legs.  It’s possible that Atlanta will become more of a passing team this year.  It’s also possible he has one more year left in him.

This is all I know.  Someone will draft Michael Turner in your league this year, and it will either make, or break his team.  I am scared to death of him, but I also know he could have one more good year left in him, and I understand he could very well come back to bite me.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #8-9

“Old Reliables” that may not be so reliable.

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Rashard Mendenhall.

If healthy, both Jones-Drew and Mendenhall will easily be top-ten RBs.  Both of their teams love to grind it out, and both guys can do the job.  However, Mendenhall has had fumble issues in the past, and just how long can a guy as small as Mo-Joe stay healthy?

If it were me, and I drafted either of these guys early, I would take his backup late in the draft – especially if I had Mo-Jo, because I think Rashard Jennings could really surprise some people this year, if given the opportunity.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #6-7

The new kids on the McBlock.

• Darren McFadden
• LeSean McCoy

These two guys have more “home-run” ability than anyone besides Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and maybe Adrian Peterson.

McCoy will be playing in a high-powered offense that has surprisingly less weapons than you thought.  Seriously, they have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and…yeah you thought they had more, didn’t you?  Well, McCoy will surprise a lot of people this year that didn’t take notice before.  He is one of the smoothest runners in the game, and can also catch the ball out of the backfield.

McFadden, on the other hand, finally seemed to figure it out last year.  If he is finally putting the work in to match his unbelievable talent, the Raiders could have a top five fantasy player on their team, easily.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #4-5

Don’t be disappointed with these guys.

• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster

We have all been there.  We get the fourth pick in the draft, and we love three guys.  Obviously, those three guys go 1-2-3, and we are stuck fuming to ourselves for the next four picks.  On draft day, don’t be “disappointed” with Rice or Foster.

Sure, maybe the next three guys will have marginally better years, but the fact is that in most seasons the difference between guys 1-3 and 4-6 isn’t really that big.  Be happy with either of these guys, and then focus on building out the rest of your team.  Nobody has ever won a fantasy league with just one guy, but plenty have lost it by not concentrating for half of their draft.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #2-3

The enigmas

• Chris Johnson
• Jamaal Charles

I think these are the only two guys in the league that could rush for 2000 yards.  They could also both get injured or, in CJ’s case, randomly miss a lot of time because of contract issues.  Either way, if things go well, Charles and Johnson will make a LOT of fantasy owners happy with their home run ability coupled with their coach’s love for the running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #1

Old Faithful

• Adrian Peterson

In my opinion, he’s still the best in the biz.

This week, I must regretfully inform you that I lost in Week 8, falling to 5-3 with a 14 point loss. The worst part? A win was sitting on my bench.

I wrestled all week with Fred Jackson versus BenJarvus Green-Ellis at my RB#2 slot. I finally settled on Jackson because he had gotten about the twice the number of touches as BJGE in weeks 6 and 7, and because the Chiefs had allowed five rushing TDs on the year against only three allowed by the Vikings.

I struggled with this choice right up until kickoff, but went with Jackson and ultimately felt good about it.

Then Week 8 played out, Jackson got only 75 total yards with no scores, and I watched The Lawfirm torch the Vikings for 100+ yards and two TDs. Needless to say, it was a painful and bitter pill to swallow.

But you know what? I don’t regret my decision. I analyzed it, weighed a number of factors, and went with the player I had the most confidence in. It wasn’t like I just forgot to set my rosters or was forced to make a shotgun decision at the final moment.

It’s fantasy football though, which means that every prediction we make is inherently unpredictable. We just make the best educated guesses we can and hope for the best. All of us do. Even the most astute fantasy player.

The key is to have a consistent strategy and use sound reasoning based in statistical fact. If you do that and a decision turns out wrong? Well, you lick your wounds, learn whatever you can from it, and then turn your attention towards next week. I can’t bring BenJarvus Green-Ellis onto my active roster for Week 8, but I certainly can do everything possible to make a better start/sit decision in Week 9.

And here’s hoping I can help you make better decisions as well.

Before we delve into Week 9, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 8 with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack.
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about last week. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 8 Recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Drew Brees, Ryan Torain; Washington D, Pierre Garcon (though not to the extreme I thought)
• Start ‘em misses: Kellen Winslow;
• Sit ‘em hits: Dallas D, Chris Ivory (and all Saints RBs), Matt Schaub
• Sit ‘em misses: Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker; Brandon Pettigrew

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, and Redskins are on bye in Week 9.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Seattle)

Yes, I’m a little nervous about this because Seattle’s D is typically much better at home than on the road. However, the Seahawks were giving up 260+ passing yards per game coming into Week 8 before allowing Jason Campbell to look like a good NFL quarterback – 310 yards, 2 TDs.

While it’s true that Eli Manning can be inconsistent and will throw interceptions, he also has thrown 9 touchdowns over the last three weeks (against 5 INTs) and has one of the best WR corps in the NFL. With the Giants now running well behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it is opening their passing game even more. With a lot of QBs on bye this week, Eli is certainly a top 10 option.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Philip Rivers is facing Houston. You do the math. It computes whether he has any healthy WRs or not.
• Aaron Rodgers may have struggled mightily against the Jets last week, but did you see what David Garrard did to Dallas? Make sure you keep ARodg in your lineup.
• Joe Flacco, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs over the last two weeks, is a very good option against the Miami Dolphins.
• Chad Henne is clearly going to keep throwing. You could do a lot worse than Henne against Baltimore, as I outlined in this week’s waiver wire sleeper article.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em QB: Matthew Stafford, Detroit (v New York Jets)

Matthew Stafford returned from injury in a big way in Week 8. He torched the Washington Redskins for 200+ yards and 4 TDs, against only one INT. Naturally, Calvin Johnson was a huge beneficiary of Stafford’s return.

However, while I like Stafford a lot long term, this week I am not too high on him with the Jets’ now-healthy secondary coming to town. Remember, Washington entered Week 8 31st in the NFL against the pass, so Stafford’s solid day shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise.

In Week 8, Darrelle Revis and the Jets held Aaron Rodgers to at 15-34 day and only 170 yards. At this point in their careers, Rodgers is a much better player than Stafford. And while the Jets statistically have not been dominant against opposing QBs this season, they also haven’t been fully healthy. It appears like now they are.

Stafford is going to have plenty of good games over the balance of the season. Week 9 just won’t be one of them.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 9 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Mark Sanchez played awful in Week 1, then got hot over the next few weeks, and has seemingly regressed again recently. You have to sit him until he proves he can produce consistently again.
• Carson Palmer has a QB rating of 78 against the Steelers during his career. He didn’t play well last week against Miami, with one of his TD passes being an absolute gift. I don’t like him this week.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick did not play terribly Week 8, but after four straight weeks of at least two TD passes, his numbers against KC were a bit underwhelming. Facing the Bears (who have given up only 4 TD passes all season) in Week 9 means Fitz will likely be underwhelming again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em RB: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at Buffalo)

This one really isn’t hard. The Bears are struggling to protect Jay Cutler and the Bills are the worst team in the NFL against the run. In case you needed the Bills’ defensive deficiencies to be reiterated, the Chiefs top two backs ran 41 times for 254 yards. So…start your running backs when they’re playing the Bills.

Regarding Forte specifically, he’s only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he only has 3 rushing TDs, but the Bills give up 5+ yards per carry. Average those out and I think we can reasonably expect Forte to average around 4.5 yards per carry. The bonus with Forte is that he catches passes. He’s added 3 receiving TDs this year to go along with 26 catches and 300+ yards.

All in all, this is the kind of week you have Forte for. The Bears will undoubtedly ride him in a must-win game, and the matchup suggests he’ll produce.

Matt Forte fantasy football Week 9 projection: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 40 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• I mentioned LeGarrette Blount in the sleeper picks article this week. Against a so-so Atlanta run D, he needs to be in your lineup this week if you have a starter on bye.
• Darren McFadden is facing the very solid KC defense, but he went over 100 yards for the second straight week in Week 8. He plays.
• Seattle has a very good run defense, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both playing very well right now. Bradshaw is a definite must-start, and Jacobs’ ability find the end zone makes him a solid flex option too.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a great outing in Week 8 and now deserves to start every week. Danny Woodhead found his way into the end zone again and is valuable as well.

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Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see who my sit ‘em RB is, as well as my start/sit picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note: The comment section is disabled here. But head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to ask all your lineup-specific questions for Week 9.

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Last week I highlighted names like Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Mike Williams, and the Kansas City D as solid sleeper targets. Who are the guys you should be targeting on waivers this week?

Solid options at QB, RB, WR, TE, and Defense are detailed below.

Quick note before we begin: FunkInPalmHarbor is the winner of the P&G gift bag, chosen at random from our Week 8 Sunday live chat participants. I am able to give the gift bags as part of my participation in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*.

I will be giving another one away this week, and it will go to a random commenter on either this post, the start/sit post, or the rankings post.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sleepers and Waiver Wire Targets

The following teams are on by in Week 9:

• Broncos
• Jaguars
• 49ers
• Rams
• Titans
• Redskins

Remember, the rules for this post are: a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues to be included; and, I focus on guys who are playing in Week 9, although I’ll recommend players on bye if they especially stand out as valuable long-term acquisitions.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sleepers and Waiver Wire Targets: QB

Chad Henne, Miami (at Baltimore, 49%)

Yes, I’m putting Henne in this post again. Hey, he’s owned in less than 50% of leagues and, and the Dolphins continue to pass the ball a lot.

Henne didn’t throw any TDs against Cincinnati in Week 8, but he did throw it 37 times. That is a trend, and with Baltimore giving up a huge day to Ryan Fitzpatrick their last time out in Week 7, Henne should be able to at least have a passable day as a fill-in for you.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (at Atlanta, 35%)

Freeman is not spectacular. He probably will never be a top-10 quarterback this year. But he is solid. He’d thrown a TD every game from Weeks 5 through 7 and then threw another in Week 8 against the Cardinals. With a decent matchup against the Falcons in Week 9, Freeman is a solid fill-in option.

Jon Kitna, Dallas (at Green Bay, 25%)

Yes, I know that Jon Kitna threw 4 picks in Week 8. He also tossed a TD, threw for 379 yards, and attempted 49 passes. Considering the Cowboys’ complete inability to run the football, Kitna will most likely continue to throw it 40+ times. He’ll throw his share of picks, but just by the sheer volume of passes he’ll also sneak a few TDs and a lot of yards in there.

For the record, no, I’m not particularly high on Matthew Stafford this week. Detroit is facing a Jets D that held Aaron Rodgers to less than a 50% completion percentage and no TDs. While Stafford put up nice stats in Week 8, he was facing a Washington pass D that gives up a lot of yards. Good value long-term, but not if you’re searching solely for a Week 9 fill-in.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sleepers and Waiver Wire Targets: RB

Willis McGahee, Baltimore (v Miami, 31%)

McGahee did not get any carries in Week 6 when the Ravens were considering trading him and didn’t want him to get hurt. In Weeks 5 and 7, however, McGahee had 10 and 11 carries respectively. His production during those two weeks was 67 yards and TD and 64 yards and a TD. That’s solid. He is averaging 4+ yards per carry this year and has 4 TDs. Miami gives it up on the ground too.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see the rest of our Week 9 sleepers, including LeGarrette Blount, as well as the Week 9 sleepers at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note: commenting is turned off here, but feel free to post your lineup/league-specific questions in the comment section over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

The cover man for this year’s model is former Florida Gator Quarterback Tim Tebow (although I’ve heard that if you live in Oregon, you can swap the Tebow cover for Jeremiah Masoli’s mug shot).

In this post, I’ll take a quick look at the graphics, announcing, gameplay, and other features, and then I will render a final verdict on the game.

Graphics/Announcing

The graphics look stunning this year. Players look more realistic; they run and cut more smoothly then they did in previous models.

The graphics are so crisp you can see car keys hanging out USC’s players back pockets.

Also they will show instant replays of great plays right after they happen.

Like in most sports games the announcing is pretty mediocre and repetitive. And now Lee Corso is gone, so all we are left with are Herby and Brad Nessler. But it’s not that big of a deal because you’ll just block it out anyways.

It’s doesn’t matter who is in the booth because it gets annoying after a while. You could have Al Michaels and John Madden in your living room and after a while you would get pissed off at them.

Michaels: “Brandon Onda has been on fire lately, winning 11 straight online games.”

Madden: “Good point Al, but he has been on zero dates during that winning streak.”

Me: “Eff you John! All you do is talk about Brett Favre and drink all my Red Bulls.”

See what I mean.

Gameplay

The gameplay has also improved over the passed few years. Players run more realistically, they will fight for extra yards on third down, and they will make toe tapping catches near the sidelines.

What I mean by players running “more realistically” is that in previous games you could easy avoid a defender in the open field by just making a sharp 90 degree angle without slowing down. In NCAA 11, a player would have to slow down and plant his feet to make such a quick turn.

In NCAA 10, if you had a quick QB and a DE was close in pursuit for a sack, you could run a few yards back and just loop around the defender. Not in this game because defenders seem to be quicker in the pursuit of the quarterback.

Features

EA didn’t make a lot of changes during the off season, but they did improve the Online Dynasty feature. Now you will be able to recruit on your computer and iPhone devices (includes iTouch and iPad).

There aren’t any changes to the normal Dynasty Mode or Road to Glory. And don’t worry…Erin Andrews still appears in the game.

There is one major problem during online play: the system often crashes when your in the online lobby. It once took 20 minutes for me and my friend to just set up a game because the system crashed so many times.

At first I was little disappointed when EA chose not to add the LeGarrette Blount Punch-Out mini game, but I am still satisfied with the game.

Verdict

I love NCAA 11. This is one of their best games in a long time, but a few bugs and no changes to the Road to Glory mode causes it to fall short of perfection.

I am giving it a 9 out of 10.

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1. Sam Bradford

This past Saturday, Oklahoma was upset in new the Dallas Cowboys stadium by BYU. What’s worse is that last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, Sam Bradford, injured his throwing shoulder on his way to the ground. Sooner Nation stopped breathing for a moment, however with recent reports it seems that the Sooner’s Slinger will only miss 2-4 weeks.

I’ll Tell You This: For all of you skeptics of Mark Sanchez and other athletes coming to pro sports early, and for all of you haters of high schoolers jumping to NBA, this is the case against you. Bradford decided to stick around one more year when he could have been the #1 pick last year. What if this was a career ending injury? Even though it’s not at this point, what if it severely affects Bradford’s play?  Bradford would possibly never get to live his dream of playing pro football. And worse, what would be his future profession after dumping all of his time into becoming an A-level quarterback?

2. Saving Weis?

Charlie Weis and all of South Bend (and those who support the Irish) may breathe just a little easier after Notre Dame pitched a shutout against Nevada. Jimmy Clausen finally looked like the quarterback that he has been hyped to be, completing 15 of 18 passes for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I’ll Tell You This: No coach in sports is under as much pressure as Charlie Weis is right now. Notre Dame MUST win, and look good in doing so. However, this was Nevada. It’s the first week of the season. The team that should have won did. Next week brings bitter rival the Big Blue of Michigan. Someone shoot Charlie a text and let him know his job is still on the line.

3. Al Davis Strikes Again

Once again, Bill Bellicheck is a genius and Al Davis is a fool. This past weekend the New England Patriots traded DE Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for a first round pick in 2011. Seymour is getting older and has seemingly started to lose a step, but is still an upgrade to a porous Raiders D-Line. However, the question remains: is he worth a first round pick?

I’ll Tell You This: There is not a soul on the earth that can honestly tell me that Al Davis made a good move, or ever will. Seymour is a “right now” type of guy, and Oakland is FAR from a “right now” type of team. There is no doubt that the Patriots will likely be picking top 5 in the 2011 draft, and that is something that no one in the entire NFL (save for New England) wants to see (and it’s possible that Al Davis won’t even live long enough to see). Al Davis needs to let go of this historic NFL franchise or they will never succeed. It’s definitely the black hole….a place where NFL players and winning go to die.

4. The Rookies

NFL rookies take the cake this year as both Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets will both get the starting nod at quarterback for their respective teams this season.

I’ll Tell You This: Although I think both guys are talented and will be good quarterbacks in the NFL, both teams are making mistakes starting them. Yes, some quarterbacks do well when thrown right into the mix (see Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts). However, in many cases it hurls what may have been a talented superstar into the cursed pool of the draft day flops (See Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, and David Carr). And some never can turn it around afterwards. Both teams have respectable veteran starters in Daunte Culpepper (Detroit) and Kellen Clemens (NY).  I can only hope for the sake of these two QB’s that they follow Peyton’s path to success and not Ryan Leaf’s path to America’s Funniest Home Videos.

5. The Knockout Heard Round the World

Everyone has seen it. Most of us saw it every hour for 48 straight hours on every sport program on television. And while for a fan of MMA like myself it was somewhat exciting to watch, America was once again taken aback by another sports thug when Oregon standout running back LeGarrette Blount sucker punched Boise State’s Byron Hout after Hout spouted a little trash talk to Blount. Blount made things worse by almost going Ron Artest-style on a couple fans on his way to the locker room. It took 4 or 5 police officers and building security to keep him from broaching the stands.

I’ll Tell You This: Although it is very sad to see a player throw away his career for lack of ability to keep his attitude in control, I do find it funny that the game started with both teams meeting at midfield for a handshake in light of “Good Sportmanship Week.” What I also find funny is that Blount ran his mouth ALL week before the game and then after getting held in check and to career lows, couldn’t take what he had been dishing out. The senior received a one year suspension, thus ending his college career. What will he do with his time off? Maybe he should give the Winnepeg Blue Bombers a call. He can hang out with Pacman Jones. They would make a cute couple. Canada can have him too.

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You can follow BigMB on Twitter by going to www.twitter.com/mylesb3269.