In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.

I finished second to last.

Lame.

Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Nobody cares Jon except for certain other people in that same league who finished in first place with an 11-2 record despite only scoring the 6th-most points but having by far the least points scored against.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!]

Let’s get to this week.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25. Why? Because if you have a guy in the top 20…you should be thinking about starting him anyway. I’m not going to sit here and tell you “enlightening” information like, “LeSean McCoy is going to score points this week!”

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow (at NE)

He’s tied for 18th among QBs…AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED EIGHT GAMES!

If you don’t believe in Tebow yet (and by that, I mean in terms of fantasy football), you probably never will.

Tebow will be playing against the New England Patriots and their league-worst defense. It should also be mentioned that for the first time all year, John Fox was complimentary of Tebow’s passing this past week. He admitted that Tebow is improving a lot, and they will be able to start trusting him more and more in the passing game. This is great news for Tebow-owners.

Will The Broncos win this week? I’m not sure, but that doesn’t matter for your fantasy team.

Tebow will go crazy like he did two weeks ago against Minnesota. New England’s pass defense is ranked dead last in the league. Start Tebow with confidence.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 15 projection: 260 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em QBs for Week 15:

• Tony Romo – Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, and Romo finally has four legitimate receiving weapons now that Miles Austin is back. Add this to the fact that they just lost DeMarco Murray, and I expect Romo to be the #1 QB of Week 15.
• Matt Stafford – Playing against Oakland (Carson Palmer…you can LOL right now). They are awful.
• Andy Dalton – Love his matchup against St. Louis. Cincinnati needs a win right now, and Dalton and AJ Green should make beautiful music in the dome on Sunday.

Sit Em QB: Mark Sanchez (at Philadelphia)

Mark Sanchez is, unbelievably, the 10th ranked QB in all of fantasy right now. Don’t be fooled though.

Sanchez has padded his stats against poor pass defenses. He put up at least 17 points against Dallas, Oakland, Miami, New England, and Buffalo. None of those teams are ranked in the top 14 in the league against the pass. Against Baltimore, Jacksonville, Denver, and Washington, he failed to break THIRTEEN.

The Eagles aren’t a great pass defense, but they are ranked 12th in the league. The way you beat the Eagles is on the ground.
Once you factor Shonn Greene’s resurgence into the picture, Sanchez is a must-sit in week 15.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 15 projection: 180 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other Sit Em QBs for Week 15:

• Alex Smith – I really hope you weren’t planning on starting him. He’s been terrible lately, AND he’s playing the Steelers. Good luck with that, Mr. Smith.
• Matt Ryan – He’s the most hit or miss QB in fantasy. He could very well have a big game, especially if Julio Jones stops dropping the ball, but I think he’s a miss this week. Jacksonville has the 4th best defense in the league against the pass, and both teams are playing off of a short week on Thursday night. Stay away from Matty-Ice this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you picking Tebow as your start ‘em QB this week is the most predictable choice of 2011. It’s also correct.

Picking Sanchez as the sit ‘em QB though? Boy, I don’t know. I certainly do not agree that he a “must sit”. Do you really trust Philly and its defense that much? Even if Shonn Greene does the heavy lifting, the Jets still like to pass in the red zone.  I don’t love Sanchez, and he’s certainly not a “must start” by any means, but he does have 7 TDs over the last three games. I don’t care who they are against, that’s good. Let’s put it this way: you could do worse.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Grant (at Kansas City)

After losing Greg Jennings last week, I have the feeling that Green Bay will start playing a little bit more conservatively late in games. Fortunately for them, Ryan Grant appears to be peaking at the right time.

It always takes a while to fully recover from injury, and Grant appeared to be at top form last week.

Look for Green Bay to start shortening games in the second half as the season ends. They will definitely start this week against Kansas City and their atrocious run defense.

Ryan Grant fantasy football Week 15 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 15:

• Shonn Greene AND LaDainian Tomlinson – Don’t be freaked out that they might steal each other’s points…BOTH players should be good for more then 10 this week against Philadelphia.
• Chris Johnson – Against Indianapolis in a game that really doesn’t matter? (Tennessee is basically out of the playoffs at this point) Come on…I think we all know that this is the type of game that Chris Johnson will EXPLODE in.

Sit Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall (v San Francisco)

I will let Jerod confirm this one by explaining to you once again how impossible it is to run on San Francisco.

Rashard Mendenhall Projections: 60 total yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 15:

• Ryan Mathews – Tough matchup against Baltimore. San Diego will have to air it out to beat the Ravens.
• DeAngelo Williams – Houston is great against the run as well. I actually like Jonathan Stewart a little bit this week – he’s the Panthers’ threat to catch the ball out of the backfield – but stay away from DeAngelo Williams in Week 15.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, I pretty much agree with everything here. I’m not as high on Grant as you are, but I certainly think he’s worthy of playing for the exact reasons you explained.

As for Mendenhall, San Francisco still has not allowed 1,000 total rushing yards this year – they give up just 70.5 rushing yards per game – and have not allowed a single rushing touchdown. Sure, that second stat is a bit fluky (everyone else has allowed at least five) but you can’t even be in a position to have it unless your run D is awesome. I would sit Mendy too. If he scores, oh well. Can you really be upset with yourself?

Other running backs who simply have to be in your starting lineups because of their matchups:

• Felix Jones – yes, Felix Jones. Dallas is playing Tampa Bay, a team that has essentially quit on the season and can’t stop anyone.
• Cedric Benson – the Rams can’t stop anyone from running either.
• Roy Helu – He’s on fire, has Shanahan’s trust, and gets to face a Giants’ D that rushes the passer but barely passes the rushers.
• Arian Foster and Ben Tate – Carolina’s run D is that bad.
• Beanie Wells – Cleveland can defend the pass, at least statistically, in large part because they can’t defend the run.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Demaryius Thomas (v NE)

New England, as I covered before, is just atrocious against the pass. World-renowned Patriots fan Bill Simmons even thinks that Julian Edelman is their BEST defensive back.

Thomas has quickly become Tebow’s favorite target in the end zone ever since he returned from injury. Look for Thomas to have a BIG day again in Week 15.

Demaryius Thomas fantasy football Week 15 projection: 8 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs

Bonus Start Em WR: James Jones (at KC)

Usually, I only give you one guy that I’m super strong on, but I felt that this was too important to skip over.

The Greg Jennings injury will not hurt the Packers too badly; they will just spread around the points a little more. Look for James Jones (and Jordy Nelson) to have a huge day in Jennings’ absence.

James Jones fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em WRs for Week 15:

• AJ Green – Big day for the Cincinnati passing game on the turf in St. Louis. I expect AJ to catch AT LEAST two bombs in this game.
• EVERY wide receiver for the Saints and Vikings playing in Minnesota this week – Both teams are terrible against the pass…both teams have tons of speed…both teams are playing inside. Yay, free points.

Sit Em WR: Roddy White (v JAX)

I hate his matchup, and I hate his QB this week. The only receiver I like for the Falcons this week against Jacksonville is Tony Gonzalez. I would stay away from Roddy AND Julio Jones actually, but Roddy is the guy that’s ranked in the top fifteen, so that is why he is my sit ‘em wide receiver for Week 15.

Roddy White fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 15:

• Michael Crabtree – Won’t do much against the Steelers this week.
• DeSean Jackson – Revis Island.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I was going to say that’s scary how much we are agreeing this week, but then I got down to Roddy White and realized that we do disagree on something. I’m not a huge fan of White’s upside this week, but I do like his consistency. Look at those last three games (all with TDs). That’s tough to sit in the playoffs.

Let me say this about Demaryius Thomas though: be careful. He is still a rookie with questionable hands. And if he hadn’t caught that late TD from Tebow, all people would be talking about regarding him is all the drops early in the game. Can he handle the pressure of a game this big? I like him. He has explosive potential because of his talent and the matchup. Just be careful.

Other guys I particularly like this week include:

• Mike Williams of Tampa – Dallas’ secondary is pretty poor.
• Nate Washington and Damian Williams against Indianapolis.
• Antonio Brown‘s underrated consistency against San Francisco.
• Laurent Robinson – I know that Dallas has all of its weapons back, but they did last week too and he exploded again. He’s not flash in the pan. Romo loves him.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End: Jermichael Finley (at KC)

The irony here is that if you have Jermichael Finley, you probably didn’t advance in your fantasy playoffs after his goose egg from last week. However, I think he will get much more involved in the passing attack now that Greg Jennings is out, and he should have his typical explosive day that he gets once a month.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 15 projection: 95 yards, 2 TDs

(Yes, everybody, I’m well aware that I predicted at least three receiving TDs for the Packers after I said they would run the ball more. I don’t care. I expect all of the throwing to be done in the first half, and then Grant to dominate in the second.)

Sit Em Tight End: Vernon Davis (at PIT)

As you well know, I’m pretty high on the Steelers’ pass defense. This game will be ugly one way or the other, and nobody on the 49ers (outside of their running backs) will have a big game offensively.

Jerod’s thoughts:

What, no “other guys” to start and sit? Come on Jon! This is Week 15!

By the way, I agree on both Finley and Davis. You’d have to have balls of steel to start Finley this week, but those who made it this far probably do.

A couple of other names to consider:

• I know that Aaron Hernandez no longer gets the red zone looks in New England, but there is still value in a tight end who catches 4-5 balls per week and gets 50-70 yards. Plus, he’s due for a TD one of these days right?
• Jake Ballard continues to be a solid under-the-radar selection. He should be as well this weekend against Washington.

Guys not to consider:

• Dallas Clark caught one ball last week in his return to lineup. Don’t be seduced by the name.
• Marcedes Lewis has some yardage potential, but I just don’t see many scoring chances for anyone other than MJD against the Falcons.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Defenses

Start Em Defense: Chicago (v SEA)

They are playing with their backs against the wall, and pretty much have to hold their opponents scoreless. Fortunately for them, they are playing against Seattle. Look for the Bears to contain the Beast and dominate the Seahawks.

Also, whenever their backs are up against the wall, Devin Hester seems to do something crazy, which helps the Bears D/ST unit. 
Da Bears will play well this week.

Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 or fewer points, 2+ turnovers, 2+ sacks, 1 TD

Sit Em Defense: Denver (v NE)

I love Denver’s offense this week, in part because I think the New England offense will have their way with the Broncos.

You can’t stop Rob Gronkowski…even with OLBs as good as Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

I will be cheering for Denver to pull it off again this week, but once again it looks like Tim Tebow will have to carry the load.

Denver Broncos D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 24 or more points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks

Jerod’s thoughts:

Okay, now I forgive you for not doing the “other” tight ends. You stepped up with some D/ST analysis! And I like both picks.

Also consider that Seattle gave up two return TDs to Ted Ginn back in Week 1. While their special teams may now be better, Hester is Hester. He offers lots of upside for Bears owners.

And as for the Broncos, you’re exactly right. Miller and Dumervil are rushing OLBs, not coverage guys. Gronk will dominate, and Welker should find plenty of success too.

Other D/STs to consider:

• Seattle’s D is criminally underrated. Facing Caleb Hanie, they too should be able to get the scoring to a minimum.
• Cincinnati playing at St. Louis is a no-brainer. So is Tennessee at Indy.

D/STs to stay away from:

• Baltimore is excellent, but they are facing a San Diego offense that is starting to click. If I had Seattle or Cincy, I’d play them over the Ravens, who face a desperate Chargers team that literally almost never loses in December.

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There you go. 2,500 words of fantasy analysis for Week 15, which should have you all ready to make every lineup decision facing you for Week 15.

Wait…what’s that? You still have questions? Well of course be our guest and pop on down to the comment section below. We’ll take good care of you, as well as be here on Sunday morning for our weekly live chat to make sure you are ready to win your playoff matchup.

Good luck in Week 15 everyone!

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green will be a game time decision for Sunday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens. Green injured his knee catching a touchdown pass during the game against Pittsburgh last Sunday. If you have someone to replace Green, I’d suggest doing so. Since they are playing the Ravens, there may not be a lot of opportunities for Green to get you the fantasy points needed for your team.

Image source: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images North America via Zimbio.com

Running back Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns, has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, causing him to miss his fifth consecutive game due to a hamstring injury.

AFC South

Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub injured his foot this past week and will sit out for a significant amount of time. Schaub may be out for the rest of the season, depending on whether or not he’ll have to have surgery.

AFC East

Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills wide receiver, did not practice on Wednesday due to a shoulder injury he received during the game against the Dallas Cowboys last week. His status is uncertain for Sunday’s game. Watch to see if he can practice on Thursday before deciding whether or not to keep him.

New York Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson will not play in Thursday’s game against the Denver Broncos due to a MCL sprain.

AFC West

Running back Willis McGahee, Denver Broncos, is still uncertain about his return to the field for Thursday’s game against the New York Jets. The Broncos also lost running back Knowshon Moreno to a torn ACL and was put on the IR.

Matt Cassel, quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, suffered a hand injury in week 10 and has had surgery on his throwing hand. Cassel will be out for some time but hopes to return before the end of the season.

NFC East

Washington Redskins wide receiver Leonard Hankerson is out for the season due to an injury in his hip.

Quarterback Michael Vick, for the Philadelphia Eagles, sustained a few cracked ribs after week 10′s game. I wouldn’t expect him to play this week, but it is Vick so who knows! Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin also had a rough day on Sunday, suffering from a shoulder and hamstring injury. He did not practice on Wednesday.

Ahmad Bradshaw, running back for the New York Giants, did not practice on Wednesday. There has been a lot of speculation of the reason Bradshaw has missed two games is because of a cracked bone in his foot.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb has had limited practice this week after injuring his right foot. His status for Sunday’s game against San Fransisco 49ers is still doubtful.

Frank Gore, running back for the San Fransisco 49ers, came out of Sunday’s game with only a bruised knee and is expected to be fine for the game against the Arizona Cardinals in week 11.

The Seattle Seahawks are hoping to see the return of their wide receiver Sidney Rice this Sunday against the St. Louis Rams.

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That’s your injury update for the week! Remember you can stay up-to-date with the latest fantasy news by following @NFLNewsFlash on Twitter. Good luck and happy football watching!

Andre Johnson is gone.  Ben Roethlisberger is banged up.  Miles Austin is on the mend.  Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?

With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost.  If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings.  But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug.  Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.

So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.

As always, let’s briefly recap last week’s picks just to see how we did.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Four Recap

Overall – 29 for 47 (62%)

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Megatron and Rob Gronkowski
• Misses: Matt Stafford and Adrian Peterson

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Greg Olsen
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger and Plaxico Burress (Thanks a lot…Sanchez…)

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 12 for 16

• Hits: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jermaine Gresham, and Tony Gonzalez
• Misses: Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, and Jermichael Finley.

Worst Player Predictions: 0 for 4

• Misses: Kyle Orton, Texans’ Running Backs (HUGE MISS…sorry guys), Sidney Rice, and Owen Daniels

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 4

• Hits: Joe Flacco
• Misses: Ray Rice (Never will I ever doubt him again), Dwayne Bowe, and Vernon Davis

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 12 for 15

• Hits: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Daniel Thomas, James Starks, Cowboys’ Running Backs, Chad Ochocinco, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow
• Misses: Denver Running Backs, Steve Smith 1.0, and Benjamin Watson

And now onto the Week 5 start em, sit em picks.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em Projections

One brief change this week:

As you know, Jerod did the Start/Sit column the last two years before handing the keys to me this year. He still edits the column before it’s posted though, and helps out in the comment section answering questions throughout the week. And while we agree on the majority of these picks, there are some spots where we differ, and we think it will add value to the column to have him chime in with alternate viewpoints when he has them.

So at the end of each position section, you’ll see a blockquote with Jerod’s quick-hit thoughts on the picks, especially any he strongly disagrees with. As always when it comes to our fantasy advice, MSF is an ego-free zone where helping readers put the best possible lineup together is the goal. This is just one more way we can work together to do that.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 5:

• Cleveland
• Dallas
• St. Louis
• Miami
• Washington
• Baltimore

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Michael Vick

Vick started to look like the Vick of last season on Sunday, and his team still got the loss.  Buffalo’s secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as they have been torched by several teams already this season.  Look for Vick to try and put the Eagles on his shoulders as they travel to Buffalo trying to save their season.  The Eagles may not win, but Vick should have a MONSTER day.

Michael Vick Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 380 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1INT; 85 rushing yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Philip Rivers

I almost feel like this is cheating, but Rivers is only ranked 14th among fantasy quarterbacks.  Look for him to start moving up the charts this week in Denver.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 350 yards, 3 TDs

Other Guys I Like:

• Eli Manning – At home against Seattle.
• Drew Brees – On the road in Carolina.
• Curtis Painter – Played well in his debut, and will be doing his best against the Chiefs to make sure the Colts don’t finish with the worst record in the league.
• Mark Sanchez – The Pats’ defense is beyond banged up right now…and they weren’t all that good to begin with – especially against the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Cam Newton

No, this is not one of those “He can’t really be this good!  He’s going to fail eventually!” picks… I have actually been very impressed by the youngster so far this year.  Unfortunately, the Saints’ defense will be unlike anything he has played so far.  The Packers were definitely a better defense, but they played very vanilla against him.  He has never faced a defense that will attack him like New Orleans will this Sunday.  I think Newton will go on to have a very good season, but not this week against New Orleans.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 180 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs; 45 rushing yards, 2 fumbles

Sit Em – Tom Brady

Just hear me out.  Obviously, if you have Tom Brady, you probably don’t have a reliable backup.  That’s ok.  He could still get you 15 to 18 fantasy points this week.  However, if you are in a small league, and you were able to pick up someone like Matt Stafford as a backup, you should look very seriously at benching Brady this week, and it has everything to do with the Patriots’ Week 5 opponent and Brady’s checkered history against them.

The Jets have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and Darrelle Revis will be able to shut down Wes Welker better than anyone else in the league.  That leaves Brady with only Rob Gronkowski as a legitimate weapon all day, and the Jets will be licking their chops to rush Brady if New England only has five guys protecting him.

Plus, consider Brady’s last five starts against the Jets:

• 2010 Playoffs: 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• 2010 Week 2: 248 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2010 Week 13: 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 11: 310 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 2009 Week 2: 216 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Based on the averages, Brady will still throw for 250 yards, and may even have a few TDs…and of course he has the potential to throw a 4 TD gem against anyone…but the Jets have also proven that more often than not they at least pull Brady back to the pack; thus, there could definitely be much better options than him for your lineup this week.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 250 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers are just bad, and he’s banged up.
• Donovan McNabb – I’m just trying to pad my stats for next week…
• Matt Ryan – They might lose by 50 points to Green Bay.
• Jay Cutler – Detroit’s defensive line will make him dance by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Everything here sounds reasonable, including Jon’s thoughts on Brady (who I’d still start though, personally), but I disagree on Matt Ryan. He and the Falcons offense are much better at home and in domes, and the Green Bay defense is giving up a lot through the air. I say start Ryan. He’s a top 10 QB this week.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville is just awful, and they will ride Mo-Joe until he falls over in the second quarter during week 8.  I feel bad for the guy, having his prime ruined on lousy teams.  Fortunately, his fantasy owners will make good – especially this week against Cincinnati.

Maurice Jones-Drew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 180 yards, 1 TD; 80 yards receiving

Start Em – Joseph Addai

He’s quietly had a pretty decent year, despite all of the upheaval in Indy.  The Colts’ offense should move a little more fluidly with Curtis Painter as well.  To top that off, Indy will be playing Kansas City in a game that the Colts foolishly think they need to win.  Colts’ fans will watch in horror as Indy ruins their chances at Andrew Luck.

Joseph Addai Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 135 yards, 1 TD; 45 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Darren Sproles – He’s just so fast…and Carolina’s LBs are hurt.
• LeGarrette Blount – San Francisco is actually sneaky decent…Tampa Bay will be forced to grind it out more than normal.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – He might have 150 yards receiving against the Pats.
• Mike Tolbert – Playing Denver…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer – Rashard Mendenhall

He’s awful, and Tennessee is good.

Rashard Mendenhall Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 10 yards rushing

Sit Em – Michael Turner

Remember the last time Green Bay played Atlanta, on that fast turf, indoors, and jumped out to a huge lead, and rendered Michael Turner unusable against a defensive line that was already amazing at stuffing the run?  Oh.  Me neither…

Michael Turner Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 25 yards rushing; 15 yards receiving

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Shonn Greene – Not a great matchup against NE.
• BJGE – Pats won’t have a good day on offense.
• James Starks – The Packers don’t run the ball…and they don’t need to.
• Matt Forte – Detroit’s defensive line will make him cry by the second quarter.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Joseph Addai has been surprisingly effective this season, and I like him as a flex option this week, perhaps even over Mendenhall (who I’m growing to hate), but I personally would not start him over Michael Turner. I know the Packers held him down in the playoffs last year, but in Week 12 of 2010 he had over 100 yards and a TD against Green Bay in the Georgia Dome, and Green Bay’s defense is not nearly as good this year. Hell, let me just say it: I like everyone in the Packers-Falcons game, and with Turner averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year, I can’t recommend sitting him.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

I will continue to pick him every week until he becomes human.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 TDs.

Start Em – Deion Branch

If the Jets do what I think they will do, I think Branch will have a breakout game of sorts.  Look for Gronkowski and Welker to be neutralized, and Branch to have a pretty decent game.

Deion Branch Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection – 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD.

Other Guys I Like

• Reggie Wayne – Got a lot of targets last week with Painter, and should have a favorable matchup against anyone on KC.
• Hakeem Nicks – Huge game for him.
• AJ Green – He’s unbelievable…I keep telling you.
• Devery Henderson – Despite registering zero catches last week, Carolina won’t be able to stay in front of him and Henderson will bounce back.

Projected Worst Performer – David Nelson

Nnamdi Asomugha finally justifies the money that was spent on him this summer.

David Nelson Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Pierre Garcon

Don’t chase TDs!  He only had two catches on Monday Night, and although they ended up being two giant home runs, he only caught the ball one-fourth of the time it was thrown to him.  Believe me, this is hard for me to say, because Pierre is my favorite player.  I may or may not have spent more than 100 bucks on a Super Bowl jersey with his name and number that ended up being a curse against the Saints.  Either way, don’t be fooled by his “big game” against Tampa.  He’s hit or miss…and this week is a miss.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 0 catches

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• Wes Welker – Bad game by his standards.
• Victor Cruz – Stop drinking the Cruz kool-aid…right now…at least for one more week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough game for Newton and the Panthers.
• Jacoby Jones – Don’t be fooled…he won’t have a break out game, no matter who is hurt on his team.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

So long as people make sure to still start Wes Welker – because you can’t sit him right now – I’m fine with him being in Jon’s dislike section. I also agree on Garcon. Don’t overreact to one big week and a couple of fluky touchdowns. As for Nelson, the question is who will Nnamdi cover? The Eagles play a lot of zone, which has been part of their secondary’s downfall since they have a lot of good cover corners. And I agree on Branch. I thought he’d bounce back last week, but I think it comes this week with one of Brady’s favorite all-time targets getting the 3rd or 4th best cover option on the Jets.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Em, Sit em Picks: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jermaine Gresham

He’s really good and the Jaguars are really bad.

Jermaine Gresham Fantasy Football Week 5 Projection: 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em – Brandon Pettigrew

I watched, first hand, two weeks ago as the Chicago Bears proved they couldn’t guard tight ends and Jermichael Finley went off.  Look for Pettigrew to have a big day in a huge Monday Night Football game that the city of Detroit deserves.

Brandon Pettigrew Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD

Other Guys I Like

• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton’s security blanket all game against the blitzing Saints.
• Dallas Clark – Let’s just hook everybody up the the Curtis Painter rejuvenation machine!
• Owen Daniels – He’s the guy that will get more looks with Andre Johnson being out.
• Scott Chandler – I know I always say not to chase TDs…but I think he grabs one or two this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Heath Miller

When Tight Ends lose it…they LOSE it…and Heath Miller has lost it.

Heath Miller Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 1 catch for 8 yard

Sit Em – Vernon Davis

Tampa Bay did a great job of locking down Dallas Clark, and they should have similar success against the 49ers.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 5 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 40 yards

Other Guys I Don’t Like

• I originally picked Jimmy Graham, but as I thought about it, I started to have second thoughts.  Then, I read Jerod’s thoughts below, and completely agreed.  There really aren’t any of the big name tight ends that I dislike this week…so I am sticking to Davis and these other two guys.
• Jeff King – Rough day for Arizona
• Jeremy Shockey – One get enough looks against New Orleans.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, you can’t sit Jimmy Graham. Sorry Jon, but I disagree here strongly. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes this year and he’s had over 100 yards the last two weeks. He’s also scored three times. The reality is that Graham, not Colston, not Meachem, not Moore, not Henderson, is Drew Brees’ #1 target right now. Also, I’d think long and hard before sitting Vernon Davis. Alex Smith gained a lot of confidence last week, and Davis remains the best receiving threat on the team. If you’re going to sit him, make sure it’s for someone the caliber of Gronkowski, Pettigrew, or Graham. Remember: talent usually wins out over time, and few tight ends are as talented as Vernon Davis.

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As always, feel free to ask your questions in the comment section and I will do my best to respond.  Or, you can send them to me on twitter anytime: @The_Dr_Twitch.

Like I said before, it’s not that fun to draft Ichiro.  You know exactly what you’re getting.  (Or at least you used to know, before this season.) On the flip side, thinking about Jason Heyward’s upside gives us all visions of glory.

But when it comes to drafting running backs for your fantasy football team this year, save the “sleepers” for other positions.

Assuming you are in a 10 to 12 team league, or a fun weekly challenge game like FanDuel, and you have to start at least two running backs, it won’t be good enough to simply know which guys are in the top five.

Here are my top 25 running backs for 2011, along with some guys I think you should stay away from. The latter group is who we’ll start with.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: The “Stay-Aways”

• Mark Ingram – The Lockout will hinder rookies greatly this year.  The rookie running back slump continues, even though the kid has unreal talent.
• Joseph Addai – As a Colts fan, I think I speak for everyone else in Hoosier Country when I say, “You just can’t trust this guy.”
• All Other Colts’ Running Backs – If you need me to explain this one, you have probably never played fantasy football.
• Jonathan Stewart – Just a hunch, but I think the Panthers will try to justify spending a billion dollars on DeAngelo Williams…if only for this season.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Also a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to be high-flying, just like they were in their 18-1 season.  Expect a lot of passing, yards, and scoring…through the air.
• CJ Spiller – At this point, he’s destined to become a homeless man’s Devin Hester.  And in a league that no longer has kickoff returns, that isn’t a good thing.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – Eight steps beyond washed-up at this point.
• Daniel Thomas – See Ingram, Mark.
• Fred Jackson – I just don’t see the Bills leading a lot of games this year.  Their running game and Mr. Jackson will suffer.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #21-25

The boring guys who will win you games

• Marshawn Lynch
• Ryan Mathews
• Mike Tolbert
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Shonn Greene

Ironically, these guys are all pretty similar.  Most of them like to pound it inside and eat up short yardage situations.  Expect all of them to be able to punch it into the end zone for you as well.

Of these five, Greene has the most upside since the Jets will likely be good, but Sanchez will still struggle, causing them to rely heavily on their defense and running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #16-20

Your “all or nothing” guys…that will win you weeks, and break your heart.

• Jahvid Best
• Felix Jones
• Knowshon Moreno
• Ryan Grant
• LeGarrette Blount

These guys are all on the same level to me. 

Best intrigues me the most because I feel that he has the most raw talent of the bunch…but as we are all well-aware, his injury history will scare many away.

I really think this could be Knowshon Moreno’s breakout year, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up as a top seven running back…though the QB situation will make his job that much more difficult.

Beware of Ryan Grant.  The Packers’ RB was injured for most of last season, and he will come back hungry, ready to show everyone that he is, in fact, very important to his team’s success.  Also, it’s probably a safe bet that Green Bay will be winning a lot of games this year, and Grant will be benefactor #1.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #11-15

It’s just not fun taking them, but you can’t let them slide past you.

• DeAngelo Williams
• Frank Gore
• Matt Forte
• Steven Jackson
• Peyton Hillis

None of these guys will earn you high praise on draft night, but they will all give you an easy 1000 yards, 8 TDs, and receptions out of the backfield.  Again, the lockout will affect a lot of young guys, players on new teams, and players with new coaches.

While Williams, Gore, and Hillis are all playing for new coaches, they will definitely be one of the foundational elements that their coaches are hoping to build upon.  Gore, Forte, and Jackson are about as “Ichiro-esque” as you can get.  Barring injury, expect solid numbers from them across the board.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #10

I have to place him this high, but I’m scared to death of him myself.

• Michael Turner

It’s possible he’s past his prime.  It’s possible that all of the carries the past few years have killed his legs.  It’s possible that Atlanta will become more of a passing team this year.  It’s also possible he has one more year left in him.

This is all I know.  Someone will draft Michael Turner in your league this year, and it will either make, or break his team.  I am scared to death of him, but I also know he could have one more good year left in him, and I understand he could very well come back to bite me.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #8-9

“Old Reliables” that may not be so reliable.

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Rashard Mendenhall.

If healthy, both Jones-Drew and Mendenhall will easily be top-ten RBs.  Both of their teams love to grind it out, and both guys can do the job.  However, Mendenhall has had fumble issues in the past, and just how long can a guy as small as Mo-Joe stay healthy?

If it were me, and I drafted either of these guys early, I would take his backup late in the draft – especially if I had Mo-Jo, because I think Rashard Jennings could really surprise some people this year, if given the opportunity.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #6-7

The new kids on the McBlock.

• Darren McFadden
• LeSean McCoy

These two guys have more “home-run” ability than anyone besides Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and maybe Adrian Peterson.

McCoy will be playing in a high-powered offense that has surprisingly less weapons than you thought.  Seriously, they have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and…yeah you thought they had more, didn’t you?  Well, McCoy will surprise a lot of people this year that didn’t take notice before.  He is one of the smoothest runners in the game, and can also catch the ball out of the backfield.

McFadden, on the other hand, finally seemed to figure it out last year.  If he is finally putting the work in to match his unbelievable talent, the Raiders could have a top five fantasy player on their team, easily.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #4-5

Don’t be disappointed with these guys.

• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster

We have all been there.  We get the fourth pick in the draft, and we love three guys.  Obviously, those three guys go 1-2-3, and we are stuck fuming to ourselves for the next four picks.  On draft day, don’t be “disappointed” with Rice or Foster.

Sure, maybe the next three guys will have marginally better years, but the fact is that in most seasons the difference between guys 1-3 and 4-6 isn’t really that big.  Be happy with either of these guys, and then focus on building out the rest of your team.  Nobody has ever won a fantasy league with just one guy, but plenty have lost it by not concentrating for half of their draft.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #2-3

The enigmas

• Chris Johnson
• Jamaal Charles

I think these are the only two guys in the league that could rush for 2000 yards.  They could also both get injured or, in CJ’s case, randomly miss a lot of time because of contract issues.  Either way, if things go well, Charles and Johnson will make a LOT of fantasy owners happy with their home run ability coupled with their coach’s love for the running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #1

Old Faithful

• Adrian Peterson

In my opinion, he’s still the best in the biz.

Want to get hyped for today’s AFC Championship Game between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers? Or just for football in general? Watch this video:

Nike Commercial: LT and Troy Polamalu “Leave Nothing” by David Fincher

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Now, I know what you’re going to say: the NFL footage of LT is from when he was with the Chargers, not the Jets. You’re right. But still, you have to think there will be at least a few one-on-one matchups between LT and Polamalu later today; and regardless, this commercial is badass. Even Bears/Packers fans can get hyped watching it.

Playoff football baby…who’s ready!!??

Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.

While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.

But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.

I am writing this while watching Monday Night Football. I need a 20 point night from Mike Wallace to pull out a win in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and with the Steelers up 17-7 and Wallace not having a TD yet, that seems unlikely. If I lose, I’ll be 5-4 and in pretty serious need of a winning streak to ensure I at least make the playoffs.

Remember, the stakes are the Super Bowl, so you know I’m overturning every stone in an effort to win – like my last minute of pick up of Seyi Atirotutu on Sunday (see, it wasn’t all bad!). The upshot is that I regurgitate all of this research into these columns, hopefully helping you out in the process.

Before we delve into the Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 9 (ugh) with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack. Last week’s winner was commenter nik. Who will win this week?
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 9 recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Eli Manning,
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Todd Heap, New England D
• Sit ‘em hits: Seattle Seahawks D
• Sit ‘em misses: Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Cedric Benson

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: the following teams are on bye in Week 10:

• San Diego Chargers
• Oakland Raiders
• New Orleans Saints
• Green Bay Packers
  

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (v Houston)

If you read this week’s waiver wire sleepers column, you know that David Garrard is my “gold star pickup of the week.” Why? Well look no further than the Houston Texans pass defense. This porous unit has given up 20 TDs in 8 games this year, and is one of the most targetable defensive units I can remember in my history playing fantasy football.

Also, Garrard has not been a slouch this year, despite his shoddy reputation. Sure, he’s been inconsistent, but that’s who he is. David Garrard is inconsistent. It’s a tenet of fantasy football.

But he has thrown for at least two TDs in four of his seven starts this year, and the games he struggled in were against the solid pass defenses of Tennessee, Philly, and San Diego. Against more suspect pass defenses like Dallas and Buffalo, Garrard has taken advantage. And suspect would be a kind way of describing Houston’s pass D.

Worth noting as well: Garrard has historically been much better at home than away. He is absolutely a must start this week. He’ll be in my top 10, the question is will he be top 5?

David Garrard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• Michael Vick against Washington’s generous pass defense is an obvious play.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick actually had a decent showing against a very tough Bears defense. He faces the much more forgiving Detroit secondary in Week 10.
• Whoever starts for the Lions – Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill (but not Drew Stanton, I don’t trust him) – is a solid start against the Buffalo Bills.
• Eli Manning is a very good start at home against Dallas. He torched them a few weeks ago and the Giants are red hot right now. The Cowboys are the opposite of red hot.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at Chicago)

I know that you Brett Favre owners probably had the old man on your bench in Week 9 (a wise move, despite the result) and had to watch him put up two TDs and 446 passing yards. You are probably itching to get him in your lineup this week, especially if you have Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, or Aaron Rodgers.

Unfortunately for you (or perhaps fortunately), I am here to throw some cold water on you with the following realities:

• The Bears have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season
• Favre continues to start and finish most games, but he gets older and more dinged up each week. Don’t you think the physical Bears will try everything they can to smack their old nemesis around? Favre staying healthy is a major risk each week for the rest of the season.
• The numbers Brett put up last week were against a very weak Cardinals pass D. Sidney Rice is not expected to be back at full strength by next Sunday (though he should play) meaning Favre will have to go against the Bears’ secondary with Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Greg Camarillo again.

I absolutely think Favre needs to be the starter for the Vikings, and I think he has a shot to put up more consistent numbers once Sidney Rice gets back to full strength, but with so many good “second tier” QB options like Garrard and Fitzpatrick out there, why risk playing Favre when he is throwing so many INTs and so banged up? I just don’t like the risk/return here.

Brett Favre fantasy football Week 10 projection: 275 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• I would like to apologize to everyone for having Chad Henne ranked so highly last week. I’m done with him. He sucks.
• Carson Palmer against the Indy pass D? No thanks. At least, not top 10. He did have another solid game against Pittsburgh, I just don’t totally trust him yet.
• Don’t get cute and think you should start Colt McCoy because he’s playing well in real life. The Browns’ offense does not produce passing TDs, and the Jets have lots of talent in their secondary.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at Arizona)

You probably think I’m crazy. Why would I tell you to start a running back who has 57 yards on 20 carries with no touchdowns the last two weeks? Well, to be honest, it’s all about the matchup.

The Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals give up in the neighborhood of 130 rushing yards per game. They have also given up nine rushing TDs this season (and it should be 10 if the Vikings would have given Adrian Peterson one more goalline try in the 4th quarter…but I digress.)

So while Lynch has been a major disappointment the last couple of weeks, and will continue to be up and down, this is one of the “up” weeks. Hopefully Matt Hasselbeck will be back too, which should help the Seattle offense provide more scoring opportunities for its running backs.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 10 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• I’m not a huge fan of the matchup versus the Jets, but Peyton Hillis is officially a must start now. How can he not be?
• I didn’t like Cedric Benson last week against Pittsburgh, but I do like him this week against Indy.
• Fred Jackson is a sneaky-good start against the relatively forgiving Lions’ D this week, and CJ Spiller is even worth a flyer in deeper leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, New York Jets (at Cleveland)

Yes, that’s right. I’m telling you to sit the running backs from a 6-2 team against the Cleveland Browns. Here’s why:

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see why LT and Shonn Greene are good sit ‘em candidates this way, as well as the rest of the sit ‘em RBs, and my Week 10 start em, sit em picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note that commenting is turned off here, but you can ask your team-specific questions in the comment section of any post over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

I also discuss two players who have over-performed their preseason valuations, but who I don’t see maintaining their current pace.

And, as always, I offer you one general piece of advice…which just happens to be the same piece of advice I gave you last week. (Yes, it’s that important!)

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

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When the Vikings take the field Monday night, it will have been two full weeks since we’ve last seen them. If any team needed the time off, it was Minnesota. Injuries, execution and ambivalent emotions – they had all been problems for the Vikes before the bye week hit; a little bit of regrouping was in order.

But they will need that refresh button they tried to hit over the break to take effect right away, because the New York Jets are rolling into this one.

Monday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets Game Info

• Vikings-Jets Date: Monday, October 11
• Vikings-Jets Kickoff Time: 8:30 pm
• Vikings-Jets TV Network: ESPN
• Vikings-Jets Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Vikings-Jets Point Spread: Jets -4 (as of Thursday morning)
• Vikings-Jets Over-Under: 39

Monday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets Preview

That the Jets come in on a roll shouldn’t come as a surprise, mind you. New York was supposed to be here; the unexpected part of this 3-1 start is who has been playing significant roles, namely Braylon Edwards and LaDainian Tomlinson. As you can see, in this game there were plenty of storylines ready to go.

And then Mr. Randy Moss entered himself into the equation. We should probably start there.

The Moss Factor.

Whatever happened between Moss and the Patriots doesn’t matter. Randy Moss will not kill this Minnesota team. There’s a chance he could just be “meh” – the ever dangerous decoy at the least – but at best, he could be a force of nature. He just won’t be terrible; he won’t be a self-destructive problem for that team. He’s playing for a new deal, in a new situation (well, kind of), and with a fresh batch of motivation.

Another positive to this trade for Minnesota: if anything is going to bring Brett Favre back from the confused-old-fella-with-his-right-turn-signal-on-for-three-miles state of football he’s playing at the moment, it’s this move. I agreed with Favre, for probably the last time ever, back in 2007 when he lobbied so hard for a Moss trade to Green Bay. Moss is the perfect receiver for him; I’ll throw it up, you go catch it. This could be the shot in the arm Favre so clearly needed. He needs to have fun out there, as we all know.

Maybe it’ll be the shot in the arm the entire team, and NFC as a whole, needed as well. The Vikings may be 1-2, but that was pre-Moss. In this post-Moss world, they are a serious threat in this conference – because it’s a conference no one has taken a firm hold of yet. This trade should provide a due kick in the pants to meandering contenders like the Saints and Packers, who, despite 3-1 records, have been a bit shaky.

In short, the Vikings, like Omar, are comin’. Everyone needs to take notice.

Minnesota is also similar to Omar Little of “The Wire” in another way. Omar’s profession of stealing from drug organizations made his day-to-day living just that – day-to-day. Did you know that one can develop quite the list of enemies when stealing from drug lords? Crazy, I know. The Vikings have made it clear with this Moss move and basically every other action and non-action they’ve performed as of late that they are living season-to-season. Or actually, just this season.

And like Omar, they do so willingly.

The Vikings will not be the same team next year and they know it. They are the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers, with Karl Malone, Gary Payton and Shaq in his last year with L.A. It is now or never. Next year, it could be all about Chris Mihm and Slava Medvedenko. Or in football terms, Tarvaris Jackson and Bernard Berrian.

The Jets are pretty good, and possibly getting better.

Meanwhile, the Jets have started to assert themselves firmly within the upper crust of the AFC behind the play of Braylon Edwards, LaDainian Tomlinson and an efficient Mark Sanchez. Edwards and his beard (shown below, before he shaved it) have been making big plays, which is to say he’s been surprising, and Tomlinson may not just simply be the third down screen pass option we thought he was at this point in his career.

And now they welcome Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace into the fold. As they sit at 3-1 and with one of the more complete teams in the league, they can argue they have just reached full strength. Just in time, as the Football Gods would have it, to prepare for their old friends Brett and Randy (seriously, the only way this game works out better for ESPN is if LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh are either commentating or officiating).

Revis gets another shot at Moss a few weeks removed from being embarrassed so bad it reminded him of just how tight that pesky hamstring really was (weird how that works).

As for Favre? Well, aside from trying to meet new people, it doesn’t seem like he ever really wanted to be in New York. He wanted to play football, and that was his only option at the time. The Jets probably didn’t enjoy the way that experience ended, meaning they’re probably going to try and crush him – like they do everyone else. I presume Rex Ryan will be more persuasive with it than I can be, though.

Monday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets Prediction

This game should be all sorts of interesting. Assuming Moss plays, does he make an immediate impact on the stagnant Viking offense? Does it matter this week anyway, with the revamped Jets coming into their own at home?

Both of these teams are entering a second act of sorts. Whatever happens going forward will have started here. This is the first game of the rest of their seasons.

Vikings-Jets Prediction: Jets 23, Vikings 20.

Vikings-Jets Spread Pick: Vikings +4

Vikings-Jets Over-Under Pick: Over

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**Moss photo courtesy of Damian Strohmeyer/SI
**Omar photo courtesy of http://1morefilmblog.com
**Braylon photo courtesy of http://www.makli.com

Twitter: twitter.com/griffingotta Email: griffingotta@gmail.com

Just as you want to buy stocks when their price is low and you expect it to rise, you want to “buy” players when their “price” is low and you expect their performance to improve. And, of course, the opposite is also true: you want to sell players when their value is high if you expect a decrease in performance.

So a new feature here at MSF Fantasy Sports will be periodic stock watch columns in which I’ll analyze a player and give you a buy, sell, or hold recommendation. And yes, I realize this is not breaking any new ground as basically every fantasy analysis site has a similar weekly post. I just figured it was time we joined the stock party.

And we ring the proverbial bell by analysis LaDainian “Mr. Rejuvenation” Tomlinson.

Reasons for Optimism

Everyone is gaga over LT right now, and with good reason. Coming off of two straight seasons in which he averaged less 4 yards per carry, the sure-fire Hall of Famer has found new life with the Jets. Through 4 games and 56 carries in 2010, LT is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and has scored 3 touchdowns. He also has added 12 receptions.

If he were to maintain his current pace, this would be Tomlinson’s final line:

• 224 carries
• 1,366 yards
• 12 TDs
• 48 receptions
• 328 receiving yards

That would be absolutely stellar.

While he likely won’t maintain a 6.1 yard average throughout the season, there is reason to think Tomlinson could crack 1,000 yards and 10 TDs this season, which is solid #2 RB production.

Not only is the Jets’ passing attack much better this year, which is opening up the box for the ground game, Tomlinson reportedly is healthy for the first time in two years and did extensive training in the offseason that allowed him to get his “burst” back. The 2010 version of LT certainly passes the eye test, as he’s looked to me a lot like the back we used to know and love and draft #1 overall every year.

Reasons for Caution

Despite Tomlinson’s explosion out of the gate in 2010, it is important to remember that he is 31 years old. That old cliche about running backs falling off a cliff after the age of 30? It’s a cliche because it has so often proven true. Still, both LT and Thomas Jones are defying it through four games, so I won’t simply write off Tomlinson because other backs have struggled past the age of 30.

Let’s take a look though at who Tomlinson has been lighting up on the ground and where they are ranked in terms of rushing yards allowed so far this season:

• Week 1 – Baltimore – 116.8 yards per game (20th)
• Week 2 – New England – 119 yards per game (24th)
• Week 3 – Miami – 117.3 yards per game (22nd)
• Week 4 – Buffalo – 174 yards per game (31st)

So not exactly a murderer’s row of run defenses there. However, take note that three of those teams are AFC East foes…which means Tomlinson gets three more games against their paltry run D’s. But how about the other 9 games on the Jets’ schedule?

• Minnesota – 87.3 yards per game (8th)
• Denver – 101.0 yards per game (12th)
• Green Bay – 118.2 yards per game (23rd)
• Detroit – 134.5 yards per game (25th)
• Cleveland – 108.8 yards per game (17th)
• Houston – 70.2 yards game (2nd)
• Cincinnati – 107.5 yards per game (15th)
• Pittsburgh (Week 15) – 62.2 yards per game (1st)
• Chicago (Week 16) – 77 yards per game (6th)

This paints a bit less rosy of a picture for LT’s future, especially as you look ahead to the playoffs. Most leagues hold their playoffs during weeks 15 and 16. Do you want Tomlinson starting against Pittsburgh and then Chicago? That’s rough.

The point here is that Tomlinson has fattened up on four of the worst run defenses in the NFL so far. Not every week will feature a sieve-like defense on the opposite line of scrimmage. Games against the Vikings, Texans, Bengals, Steelers, and Bears all could be much rougher and occur later in the year when Tomlinson’s older legs will be a bit less fresh than they are now.

The other issue with Tomlinson is injury. Older running backs are obviously more prone to injury; and while that guarantees nothing, it should not be dismissed that Tomlinson struggled with injuries during the past two seasons. If he is going to cite that as a reason for his decline, then we need to take into account the increased risk of him getting another nagging injury that reduces the rejuvenated burst we’ve all seen from him.

Recommendation: Hold, but…

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see my explanation for the “Hold, but…” recommendation on LaDainian Tomlinson, and which three players I think you should target in trades for LT.

Tomlinson has missed the last two weeks with an ankle injury and faces a stiff matchup tonight against an always tough and now angry Steelers run defense. (When Cedric Benson scores on you, and you’re 1-2, and Mike Tomlin is your coach…trust me, you’re angry.)

I’d start Tomlinson has a flex, but wouldn’t be upset if I had better options and could take a wait-and-see approach with the ankle and how effective Tomlinson is.  The Steelers are never a good matchup for a running back.

Those who have been riding the Darren Sproles gravy train will have to temper their expectations. Sproles still has flex value as a return man and in PPR leagues, but his carries will be significantly reduced.

In the end, despite his age (30) and 2008 struggles, most drafts saw L.T. get plucked at some point in the mid- to late-first round.

Still, there is no doubt that anyone drafting L.T. had to be more than a little nervous about investing their 1st round pick in a player who is fighting against the stacked history of running backs struggling once they reach 30 years old.

After one week, the L.T. results for 2009 can only be described one way: mixed.

If you did not stay up for the second Monday night game last night between San Diego and Oakland, you missed a thrilling 4th quarter in which Oakland took the lead late on a 4th and 15 TD pass by JaMarcus Russell only to see Philip Rivers and San Diego go right down the field and score a TD of their own to capture a 24-20 victory.

You also missed LaDainian Tomlinson having to spend most of the second half on the bench with an ankle injury.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on San Diego Chargers tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

The game was not a complete loss, however, as Tomlinson scored a touchdown in the first half and averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 13 rushes, generating 55 yards. He also had one reception.

The early Monday injury update on Tomlinson is that there really isn’t one, except that he was “limping badly after the game” according to The San Diego Union-Tribune (via PFT’s LT injury update). Tomlinson says that the ankle injury was not bad enough to keep him from playing, but said that it did tighten up on him in the second half.

In Tomlinson’s absence, Darren Sproles ran for only 23 yards on 9 carries, but did show his usual giddy-up while gathering 43 yards on 5 receptions.

We likely won’t know more about Tomlinson’s ankle injury until later in the week, and even then surely Norv Turner and the Chargers will milk the uncertainty over LT’s status as much as they can. With a tough game coming up against the usually ruthless Ravens’ defense, I would expect to hear very little substantive about LT until late in the week, if at all.

I’ll update this post as more information becomes available about Tomlinson’s injury. I’d make sure you have a backup plan ready, and then be pleasantly surprised if and when you don’t have to use it.

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* – LaDainian Tomlinson injury update: Bleacher Report

Note: Be sure to check out the new MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum to receive quick answers to your questions and to discuss whatever fantasy sports topics are on your mind.

I will not be breaking any new ground when I say that there is often a great deal of fluctuation between a players’ pre-draft ranking and what his ultimate value for the season ends up being. Anyone who has played one season of fantasy football understands this.

Season-ending injuries, lingering injuries, complacency, a change in role, a change in coaching staff, the emergence of a younger player, the effects of Father Time…all of these reasons and more can end up turning a top draft pick into something far less than you were expecting.

Just glancing through the 2008 draft results from one of my leagues, take a look at some of the names drafted in the first four rounds who ended up producing far, far less than their draft position would have suggested: LT (#2 overall), Joseph Addai (#4), Tom Brady (#5), Marion Barber (#6), Braylon Edwards (#15), Carson Palmer (#17), Larry Johnson (#18), Derek Anderson (#20), Jamal Lewis (#29), Reggie Bush (#31), Laurence Maroney (#32), David Garrard (#34), Matt Hasselbeck (#35), Marques Colston (#36), Torry Holt (#38), Kellen Winslow (#40).

[Note: It was a draft with a lot of Browns fans, hence why Braylon, DA, and Kellen were all picked high; but remember, all three of those guys were pretty highly rated too, so those selections are not too far from what the norm was.]

That’s a lot of high draft picks that turned out to be duds. On the flip side, look at some of the mid- to later-round picks that turned out to be absolute studs: Michael Turner (#58), Roddy White (#98), Matt Forte (#100), Dwayne Bowe (#106), Chris Johnson (#129), DeAngelo Williams (#130), Steve Slaton (#169).

The key, of course, is to identify which highly players are going to perform below expectations and which low rated players are going to outperform expectations…before the draft. This is not always easy, and certainly even the most well thought out methodology will have plenty of misses; you just want to try to have more hits than misses over the course of time.

So, based on Yahoo’s current O-Rankings, I will try to identify three highly rated players that you should be wary of using your valuable 1st round pick on, as there are warning signs I see that could lead to you only getting 2nd or 3rd round production out of the selection.  Then, later today or this weekend, I will highlight three players currently below the Top 50 that could produce 1st or 2nd round value.

Three Highly Rated Players to Be Wary Of Drafting in the 1st Round:

Before I get into analyzing specific players, let me just say right off the bat that I am wary of LT (preseason #7) and Brian Westbrook (#5). Both will be 30 by September, both saw their values decline rather sharply from their usual greatness last year, and Westbrook is already dealing with injuries in the preseason and has an impressive rookie (LeSean McCoy) nipping at his heels. I’m not saying don’t draft them, but if you do not do so with at least a little bit of trepidation, you are either a first time fantasy football player or just a casual one.

Anyway, it’s cliched at this point to discuss the questions surrounding LT and Westbrook this year, so I’m going to try and identify some other highly rated players that the conventional wisdom is telling you to draft highly. I would imagine that at least one of these guys will probably have another great season, but at a minimum I think there are legitimate questions about all three.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons (Current O-Rank: #2)

He was an absolute monster last year in his first season as a featured back. And assuming he stays healthy all year he will probably be very good again this year. I just do not think he will be nearly good enough to warrant the second pick.

The cliched reasoning for many who are anti-Turner near the top of the draft is that he went over 370 carries last year. While such a single season workload is always concerning, using 370 as some sort of magic number appears to be a bit overdone.

So I don’t think Turner will experience a dropoff simply because he passed some arbitrary amount of carries, especially since it was his first season as a full-time starter and theoretically he still has “fresh” legs. Rather, I think the perfect confluence of events that led to his incredible season probably will not be in place this year:

• He was healthy all year last year, and two straight seasons of perfect health for a RB is rare.
• The Falcons played a last place schedule in 2008, while the opponents (including all of the NFC East teams) are tougher this year.
• 17 TDs is a lot, and TDs are a number that can fluctuate from year to year even for the best running backs. Even a small but reasonable drop to 12 TDs, which would still be an excellent number, would decrease Turner’s value.
• Turner does not catch the ball out of the backfield (6 rec in 2008), meaning he does not have non-rushing touches to add to his stats against teams that are stiff against the run, or if his TDs do in fact decrease.

Additionally, if you want to discuss the Peterson-Turner debate atop the draft, Turner is a little bit too much of a boom-or-bust type player for my tastes.  Look at his game log from 2008. He had six games where he rushed for 70 yards or less.  In those six games he totaled 2 touchdowns.  That means there were six weeks out of the year where your top pick is not contributing significantly to your efforts to win. Sure, his other 10 games were stellar, but I like a little less variance from my top dog on a week-to-week basis.  Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, had only one game in which he ran for 75 yards or less and had 15 more receptions than Turner.  I expect their TDs (17-10 advantage for Turner in ’08) to at least even out this season, negating the main advantage Turner had over Peterson last year.

I would probably still take Michael Turner in the late first round or early second round (not that he’d be there) if push came to shove, but I am just not sold on him as a legit competitor to Adrian Peterson for the top spot. I also like my first pick to have more than one great season under their belt.  Minimizing risk while still getting a great player is important.

Hence, I would feel more comfortable taking guys such as Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Clinton Portis over Turner in 2009. I much prefer picking a little bit safer and going after consistent production in the early rounds and then trying to hit home runs later on. That’s how I ended up with Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald last year to anchor my team, with late round picks Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Kurt Warner (2 QB league) putting me over the top for a title.

At the end of the day, you will most likely still get a very productive #1 back in Turner, just be wary of how high you select him and the more proven production you may be passing up.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (#3)

Marion Barber alert!  Marion Barber alert!

Remember last year how Marion Barber was going to set the world on fire once Julius Jones was jettisoned from town and Barber would get all of the carries?

Yeah, not so much.

After excelling as “the closer” in Dallas in 2006 and 2007 with a 4.8 yard average and 24 combined TDs, Barber regressed to a 3.7 yard average and only 7 TDs in 2008. He also battled injuries as his carries rose to 15.9 per game, up from 10.6 per game over his first two seasons. Thus, Barber was a decent #2 back, but certainly not worth a 1st round pick.

This year, the fantasy world is again aflutter about a running back who has excelled in a part-time role now getting the chance to be “the man.” With Fred Taylor now in New England, MJD is the main man in the Jaguars’ backfield. I think it is a mistake to expect that he will immediately become a guy who should be picked in the top 5 of the first round. Last year, his best season (almost 1400 total yards and 14 TDs), MJD was the 17th best player in Yahoo!. 

Yet, MJD has never carried the ball more than the 197 times he did last year.  If his carries go up 4-5 game, as Barber’s did, Jones-Drew could experience a drop in production to similar to what Barber experienced last year. I still think MJD is worthy of a 2nd round pick, but just make sure you remember the lesson of Marion Barber before jumping on Maurice Jones-Drew with your 3rd or 4th pick.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers (#6)

Williams was the Panther’s 1st round draft pick in 2006. Through his first two seasons in the league he scored only 5 TDs and barely eclipsed 1200 yards combined. The blame for this is not entirely on Williams. He got only 144 carries in 2007 despite having a 5.0 yard per carry average. For whatever reason, Carolina felt compelled to continue feeding DeShaun Foster and his 3.5 yard per carry average the ball. Still, great running backs are usually great from the get-go.  It is WRs who usually wait until their third years to break out.

Well Williams broke out, and in a big way, in 2008.  He ran for 1515 yards and 18 TDs, and finished the year as the #1 rated player in Yahoo!.  Eleven of those TDs came in Week 13 or later, meaning he probably won more than a few people a title last year.  My advice? Let those people take Williams in the first round, because I don’t think he will be worth it this year. 

First of all, replicating his 18 rushing touchdowns is going to be mighty difficult, especially with Jonathan Stewart there to continue pilfering carries. By themselves, I think either of these guys could have 1st round potential. In a time-share, however, and coming off of a ridiculous 28 combined rushing touchdowns, I think you’re crazy if you base this year’s value solely off of last year’s numbers.

Also, scheduling and happenstance contributed mightily to Williams’ value last year.  Look at some of the teams he racked up his huge numbers against after the Panthers’ Week 8 bye: Oakland, Detroit, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Denver, New Orleans. Not exactly a murderer’s row of run defenses, plus he went against a Giants’ team in Week 16 that was scuffling a bit.

Again, as with Turner and MJD, Williams is not devoid of early round value by any means. I just think you should be careful if you draft him expecting anything more than 70-80% of his value from last year. Never pay too high a premium for a career year after the career year.  I’m convinced we’ve seen Williams’ high water mark, and will draft accordingly.

So now that you have read my reasoning for why I would be extremely nervous drafting Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, and DeAngelo Williams in the first round, I want to remind you of the key foundational point that inspired this article: LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai, and Marion Barber were all slam-dunk first round picks going into last season, just as Turner, MJD, and Williams are this year. Yet, none of the three (LT, Addai, Barber) contributed first round value last year, and owners who drafted them faced an uphill battle all season trying to compensate for the lack of production out of their first round pick.

It happens every year and it will happen this year: two or three guys that every magazine and fantasy prognosticator have in the top 10 will fail to produce top 10 stats. So before you immediately criticize the selections above, make sure you have some alternatives ready. The question is not if there will be 1st round flameouts, it’s who they will be. Whether you agree or disagree with my choices, make sure you know whose 1st round bandwagon you’re on and whose you’re off heading into your draft.

It’s not impossible, but it is decidedly harder to win over the long haul of the season when you don’t get 1st round value out of your 1st round pick.

Note: To discuss this topic and more, be sure to check out the new MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum, where you can receive quick answers to your questions and discuss whatever fantasy sports topics are on your mind.

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* – Joseph Addai photo credit: Darron Cummings / Associated Press via NFL.com

* – Maurice Jones-Drew photo credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images North America via Zimbio

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.

8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

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Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

This post is from the regular season. Follow the link if you are looking for the Colts-Chargers Wild Card Playoff Game Preview, Prediction, and Injury Reports.

(Sunday morning update: Bob Sanders is out for Indianapolis, and did not make the trip to San Diego with the team.)

Over the last few years, few teams have given the Indianapolis Colts as many problems as the San Diego Chargers, who they face this weekend on Sunday Night Football. We all remember when the Chargers ended Indy’s win streak and quest for a perfect season two years ago, as well as two losses at their hands last year. Things should change this year.

The Colts have finally started putting it together of late. The running game has been efficient, and other than dropped passes, the Colts have moved the ball down the field through the air well. Peyton Manning has spread the ball around, and with Marvin Harrison finally showing signs of life, the Colts are running on all cylinders. Joseph Addai posted his first 100 yard rushing game since last year’s loss to the Patriots, and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark continue to play well on the offensive side of the ball.

On defense, the Colts have only played marginally well, but have shown an ability to force turnovers when the game is on the line. They continue to give up nearly 140 rushing yards per game, but have held up fairly well in the red zone. This is all without their best defensive player.

Bob Sanders continues to miss games due to complications from off season knee surgery. In his place, Melvin Bullitt has started to make a name for himself; first with his special teams play, but lately as a great addition to the defense. The Colts defensive secondary has the most depth in the league, as they have been forced to play without their two starting cornerbacks and starting free safety for the last few games and are still in the top 10 in defending the pass. Dwight Freeney has helped this by returning to form with 7.0 sacks on the season, and Robert Mathis (5.0 sacks) will benefit from the fact that Freeney is playing better.

On the other side of the field for Sunday night’s game will be a very hungry Chargers team.

Led by Phillip Rivers, the Chargers have had to rely on their passing game more and more as LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled all season, rushing for only 686 yards and 5 touchdowns. Philip Rivers has thrown for 21 touchdowns (the same amount he had on the season last year), and has a 100.9 passer rating. Vincent Jackson has played well as their go-to receiver, while Chris Chambers has struggled to return to form after returning from injury.

Their defense has struggled after the early season loss of Shawne Merriman, who led their defense in sacks last year. Their lack of a pass rush without Merriman has allowed teams to throw for nearly 270 yards per game, worst in the league, and they have been only average against the run, allowing just more than 100 yards per game. This does not bode well for them going against a Colts team who is very good through the air and rushed the ball well with the return of Joseph Addai.

This is a must win game for the Chargers who are looking to turn their season around after a disappointing start to the year. They stand at 4-6 and second in their division. A win against the Colts would give them a lot of confidence going forward. The Colts need this game as well. The Titans are surprisingly running away with this division, and the Colts at 6-4 sit in the Wildcard spot right now. Expect both teams to play hard for this win, as both still have expectations for playing in January.

My Sunday Night Football prediction: Tomlinson’s struggles on the ground are not because of any defenses he has played and will continue Sunday night. The Colts ability to force turnovers will keep the Chargers from putting six on the board more than once. Peyton Manning will have all day to throw and will have one of the biggest games of the year against a team the Colts are hungry to exact revenge on, even if it means hitting them while they’re down.

Colts 31, Chargers 16

[tags]san diego chargers, indianapolis colts, sunday night football, nfl[/tags]