LaDainian Tomlinson to Play, Sproles to See Reduced Role

LaDainian Tomlinson will play tonight for the San Diego Chargers against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As a byproduct, Darren Sproles will likely see a reduced role.

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LaDainian Tomlinson Injury Update: Injured Ankle, Status Uncertain for Week 2

LaDainian Tomlinson was one of the more controversial running backs heading into 2009 fantasy football drafts, as his history of consistent production and his advancing age collided to form a maelstrom of differing opinions on his potential for 2009.

In the end, despite his age (30) and 2008 struggles, most drafts saw L.T. get plucked at some point in the mid- to late-first round.

Still, there is no doubt that anyone drafting L.T. had to be more than a little nervous about investing their 1st round pick in a player who is fighting against the stacked history of running backs struggling once they reach 30 years old.

After one week, the L.T. results for 2009 can only be described one way: mixed.

If you did not stay up for the second Monday night game last night between San Diego and Oakland, you missed a thrilling 4th quarter in which Oakland took the lead late on a 4th and 15 TD pass by JaMarcus Russell only to see Philip Rivers and San Diego go right down the field and score a TD of their own to capture a 24-20 victory.

You also missed LaDainian Tomlinson having to spend most of the second half on the bench with an ankle injury.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on San Diego Chargers tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

The game was not a complete loss, however, as Tomlinson scored a touchdown in the first half and averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 13 rushes, generating 55 yards. He also had one reception.

The early Monday injury update on Tomlinson is that there really isn’t one, except that he was “limping badly after the game” according to The San Diego Union-Tribune (via PFT’s LT injury update). Tomlinson says that the ankle injury was not bad enough to keep him from playing, but said that it did tighten up on him in the second half.

In Tomlinson’s absence, Darren Sproles ran for only 23 yards on 9 carries, but did show his usual giddy-up while gathering 43 yards on 5 receptions.

We likely won’t know more about Tomlinson’s ankle injury until later in the week, and even then surely Norv Turner and the Chargers will milk the uncertainty over LT’s status as much as they can. With a tough game coming up against the usually ruthless Ravens’ defense, I would expect to hear very little substantive about LT until late in the week, if at all.

I’ll update this post as more information becomes available about Tomlinson’s injury. I’d make sure you have a backup plan ready, and then be pleasantly surprised if and when you don’t have to use it.

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* – LaDainian Tomlinson injury update: Bleacher Report

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Identifying This Year’s Potential 1st Round Busts

Note: Be sure to check out the new MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum to receive quick answers to your questions and to discuss whatever fantasy sports topics are on your mind.

I will not be breaking any new ground when I say that there is often a great deal of fluctuation between a players’ pre-draft ranking and what his ultimate value for the season ends up being. Anyone who has played one season of fantasy football understands this.

Season-ending injuries, lingering injuries, complacency, a change in role, a change in coaching staff, the emergence of a younger player, the effects of Father Time…all of these reasons and more can end up turning a top draft pick into something far less than you were expecting.

Just glancing through the 2008 draft results from one of my leagues, take a look at some of the names drafted in the first four rounds who ended up producing far, far less than their draft position would have suggested: LT (#2 overall), Joseph Addai (#4), Tom Brady (#5), Marion Barber (#6), Braylon Edwards (#15), Carson Palmer (#17), Larry Johnson (#18), Derek Anderson (#20), Jamal Lewis (#29), Reggie Bush (#31), Laurence Maroney (#32), David Garrard (#34), Matt Hasselbeck (#35), Marques Colston (#36), Torry Holt (#38), Kellen Winslow (#40).

[Note: It was a draft with a lot of Browns fans, hence why Braylon, DA, and Kellen were all picked high; but remember, all three of those guys were pretty highly rated too, so those selections are not too far from what the norm was.]

That’s a lot of high draft picks that turned out to be duds. On the flip side, look at some of the mid- to later-round picks that turned out to be absolute studs: Michael Turner (#58), Roddy White (#98), Matt Forte (#100), Dwayne Bowe (#106), Chris Johnson (#129), DeAngelo Williams (#130), Steve Slaton (#169).

The key, of course, is to identify which highly players are going to perform below expectations and which low rated players are going to outperform expectations…before the draft. This is not always easy, and certainly even the most well thought out methodology will have plenty of misses; you just want to try to have more hits than misses over the course of time.

So, based on Yahoo’s current O-Rankings, I will try to identify three highly rated players that you should be wary of using your valuable 1st round pick on, as there are warning signs I see that could lead to you only getting 2nd or 3rd round production out of the selection.  Then, later today or this weekend, I will highlight three players currently below the Top 50 that could produce 1st or 2nd round value.

Three Highly Rated Players to Be Wary Of Drafting in the 1st Round:

Before I get into analyzing specific players, let me just say right off the bat that I am wary of LT (preseason #7) and Brian Westbrook (#5). Both will be 30 by September, both saw their values decline rather sharply from their usual greatness last year, and Westbrook is already dealing with injuries in the preseason and has an impressive rookie (LeSean McCoy) nipping at his heels. I’m not saying don’t draft them, but if you do not do so with at least a little bit of trepidation, you are either a first time fantasy football player or just a casual one.

Anyway, it’s cliched at this point to discuss the questions surrounding LT and Westbrook this year, so I’m going to try and identify some other highly rated players that the conventional wisdom is telling you to draft highly. I would imagine that at least one of these guys will probably have another great season, but at a minimum I think there are legitimate questions about all three.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons (Current O-Rank: #2)

He was an absolute monster last year in his first season as a featured back. And assuming he stays healthy all year he will probably be very good again this year. I just do not think he will be nearly good enough to warrant the second pick.

The cliched reasoning for many who are anti-Turner near the top of the draft is that he went over 370 carries last year. While such a single season workload is always concerning, using 370 as some sort of magic number appears to be a bit overdone.

So I don’t think Turner will experience a dropoff simply because he passed some arbitrary amount of carries, especially since it was his first season as a full-time starter and theoretically he still has “fresh” legs. Rather, I think the perfect confluence of events that led to his incredible season probably will not be in place this year:

• He was healthy all year last year, and two straight seasons of perfect health for a RB is rare.
• The Falcons played a last place schedule in 2008, while the opponents (including all of the NFC East teams) are tougher this year.
• 17 TDs is a lot, and TDs are a number that can fluctuate from year to year even for the best running backs. Even a small but reasonable drop to 12 TDs, which would still be an excellent number, would decrease Turner’s value.
• Turner does not catch the ball out of the backfield (6 rec in 2008), meaning he does not have non-rushing touches to add to his stats against teams that are stiff against the run, or if his TDs do in fact decrease.

Additionally, if you want to discuss the Peterson-Turner debate atop the draft, Turner is a little bit too much of a boom-or-bust type player for my tastes.  Look at his game log from 2008. He had six games where he rushed for 70 yards or less.  In those six games he totaled 2 touchdowns.  That means there were six weeks out of the year where your top pick is not contributing significantly to your efforts to win. Sure, his other 10 games were stellar, but I like a little less variance from my top dog on a week-to-week basis.  Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, had only one game in which he ran for 75 yards or less and had 15 more receptions than Turner.  I expect their TDs (17-10 advantage for Turner in ‘08) to at least even out this season, negating the main advantage Turner had over Peterson last year.

I would probably still take Michael Turner in the late first round or early second round (not that he’d be there) if push came to shove, but I am just not sold on him as a legit competitor to Adrian Peterson for the top spot. I also like my first pick to have more than one great season under their belt.  Minimizing risk while still getting a great player is important.

Hence, I would feel more comfortable taking guys such as Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Clinton Portis over Turner in 2009. I much prefer picking a little bit safer and going after consistent production in the early rounds and then trying to hit home runs later on. That’s how I ended up with Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald last year to anchor my team, with late round picks Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Kurt Warner (2 QB league) putting me over the top for a title.

At the end of the day, you will most likely still get a very productive #1 back in Turner, just be wary of how high you select him and the more proven production you may be passing up.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (#3)

Marion Barber alert!  Marion Barber alert!

Remember last year how Marion Barber was going to set the world on fire once Julius Jones was jettisoned from town and Barber would get all of the carries?

Yeah, not so much.

After excelling as “the closer” in Dallas in 2006 and 2007 with a 4.8 yard average and 24 combined TDs, Barber regressed to a 3.7 yard average and only 7 TDs in 2008. He also battled injuries as his carries rose to 15.9 per game, up from 10.6 per game over his first two seasons. Thus, Barber was a decent #2 back, but certainly not worth a 1st round pick.

This year, the fantasy world is again aflutter about a running back who has excelled in a part-time role now getting the chance to be “the man.” With Fred Taylor now in New England, MJD is the main man in the Jaguars’ backfield. I think it is a mistake to expect that he will immediately become a guy who should be picked in the top 5 of the first round. Last year, his best season (almost 1400 total yards and 14 TDs), MJD was the 17th best player in Yahoo!. 

Yet, MJD has never carried the ball more than the 197 times he did last year.  If his carries go up 4-5 game, as Barber’s did, Jones-Drew could experience a drop in production to similar to what Barber experienced last year. I still think MJD is worthy of a 2nd round pick, but just make sure you remember the lesson of Marion Barber before jumping on Maurice Jones-Drew with your 3rd or 4th pick.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers (#6)

Williams was the Panther’s 1st round draft pick in 2006. Through his first two seasons in the league he scored only 5 TDs and barely eclipsed 1200 yards combined. The blame for this is not entirely on Williams. He got only 144 carries in 2007 despite having a 5.0 yard per carry average. For whatever reason, Carolina felt compelled to continue feeding DeShaun Foster and his 3.5 yard per carry average the ball. Still, great running backs are usually great from the get-go.  It is WRs who usually wait until their third years to break out.

Well Williams broke out, and in a big way, in 2008.  He ran for 1515 yards and 18 TDs, and finished the year as the #1 rated player in Yahoo!.  Eleven of those TDs came in Week 13 or later, meaning he probably won more than a few people a title last year.  My advice? Let those people take Williams in the first round, because I don’t think he will be worth it this year. 

First of all, replicating his 18 rushing touchdowns is going to be mighty difficult, especially with Jonathan Stewart there to continue pilfering carries. By themselves, I think either of these guys could have 1st round potential. In a time-share, however, and coming off of a ridiculous 28 combined rushing touchdowns, I think you’re crazy if you base this year’s value solely off of last year’s numbers.

Also, scheduling and happenstance contributed mightily to Williams’ value last year.  Look at some of the teams he racked up his huge numbers against after the Panthers’ Week 8 bye: Oakland, Detroit, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Denver, New Orleans. Not exactly a murderer’s row of run defenses, plus he went against a Giants’ team in Week 16 that was scuffling a bit.

Again, as with Turner and MJD, Williams is not devoid of early round value by any means. I just think you should be careful if you draft him expecting anything more than 70-80% of his value from last year. Never pay too high a premium for a career year after the career year.  I’m convinced we’ve seen Williams’ high water mark, and will draft accordingly.

So now that you have read my reasoning for why I would be extremely nervous drafting Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, and DeAngelo Williams in the first round, I want to remind you of the key foundational point that inspired this article: LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai, and Marion Barber were all slam-dunk first round picks going into last season, just as Turner, MJD, and Williams are this year. Yet, none of the three (LT, Addai, Barber) contributed first round value last year, and owners who drafted them faced an uphill battle all season trying to compensate for the lack of production out of their first round pick.

It happens every year and it will happen this year: two or three guys that every magazine and fantasy prognosticator have in the top 10 will fail to produce top 10 stats. So before you immediately criticize the selections above, make sure you have some alternatives ready. The question is not if there will be 1st round flameouts, it’s who they will be. Whether you agree or disagree with my choices, make sure you know whose 1st round bandwagon you’re on and whose you’re off heading into your draft.

It’s not impossible, but it is decidedly harder to win over the long haul of the season when you don’t get 1st round value out of your 1st round pick.

Note: To discuss this topic and more, be sure to check out the new MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum, where you can receive quick answers to your questions and discuss whatever fantasy sports topics are on your mind.

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* – Joseph Addai photo credit: Darron Cummings / Associated Press via NFL.com

* – Maurice Jones-Drew photo credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images North America via Zimbio

ESPN’s Current Top 10 Fantasy Football Players: Over or Under

Yes, not long now before every fantasy football nut is tearing apart the Internet and those extremely overpriced magazines to help them decide who to draft, when, where, why and how!  This year I am at a disadvantage, as I am passing on my knowledge to all of you.  My competition in the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football League will be able to gain insight into my strategies and opinions, which for the most part are nails, and use that against me. 

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.

8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

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Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Sunday Night Football: Colts – Chargers Preview and Prediction

This post is from the regular season. Follow the link if you are looking for the Colts-Chargers Wild Card Playoff Game Preview, Prediction, and Injury Reports.

(Sunday morning update: Bob Sanders is out for Indianapolis, and did not make the trip to San Diego with the team.)

Over the last few years, few teams have given the Indianapolis Colts as many problems as the San Diego Chargers, who they face this weekend on Sunday Night Football. We all remember when the Chargers ended Indy’s win streak and quest for a perfect season two years ago, as well as two losses at their hands last year. Things should change this year.

The Colts have finally started putting it together of late. The running game has been efficient, and other than dropped passes, the Colts have moved the ball down the field through the air well. Peyton Manning has spread the ball around, and with Marvin Harrison finally showing signs of life, the Colts are running on all cylinders. Joseph Addai posted his first 100 yard rushing game since last year’s loss to the Patriots, and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark continue to play well on the offensive side of the ball.

On defense, the Colts have only played marginally well, but have shown an ability to force turnovers when the game is on the line. They continue to give up nearly 140 rushing yards per game, but have held up fairly well in the red zone. This is all without their best defensive player.

Bob Sanders continues to miss games due to complications from off season knee surgery. In his place, Melvin Bullitt has started to make a name for himself; first with his special teams play, but lately as a great addition to the defense. The Colts defensive secondary has the most depth in the league, as they have been forced to play without their two starting cornerbacks and starting free safety for the last few games and are still in the top 10 in defending the pass. Dwight Freeney has helped this by returning to form with 7.0 sacks on the season, and Robert Mathis (5.0 sacks) will benefit from the fact that Freeney is playing better.

On the other side of the field for Sunday night’s game will be a very hungry Chargers team.

Led by Phillip Rivers, the Chargers have had to rely on their passing game more and more as LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled all season, rushing for only 686 yards and 5 touchdowns. Philip Rivers has thrown for 21 touchdowns (the same amount he had on the season last year), and has a 100.9 passer rating. Vincent Jackson has played well as their go-to receiver, while Chris Chambers has struggled to return to form after returning from injury.

Their defense has struggled after the early season loss of Shawne Merriman, who led their defense in sacks last year. Their lack of a pass rush without Merriman has allowed teams to throw for nearly 270 yards per game, worst in the league, and they have been only average against the run, allowing just more than 100 yards per game. This does not bode well for them going against a Colts team who is very good through the air and rushed the ball well with the return of Joseph Addai.

This is a must win game for the Chargers who are looking to turn their season around after a disappointing start to the year. They stand at 4-6 and second in their division. A win against the Colts would give them a lot of confidence going forward. The Colts need this game as well. The Titans are surprisingly running away with this division, and the Colts at 6-4 sit in the Wildcard spot right now. Expect both teams to play hard for this win, as both still have expectations for playing in January.

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My Sunday Night Football prediction: Tomlinson’s struggles on the ground are not because of any defenses he has played and will continue Sunday night. The Colts ability to force turnovers will keep the Chargers from putting six on the board more than once. Peyton Manning will have all day to throw and will have one of the biggest games of the year against a team the Colts are hungry to exact revenge on, even if it means hitting them while they’re down.

Colts 31, Chargers 16

[tags]san diego chargers, indianapolis colts, sunday night football, nfl[/tags]