First off, congratulations!

Second, what the hell are you thinking?

Playing fantasy football in Week 17 is the ultimate crapshoot.  Some teams are going all out, others have already packed it in, and which end of that spectrum teams fall on can change throughout the day based on other results.

My best advice is to focus on players whose teams have something to play for.  (Here are the playoff scenarios for the two leagues: AFC | NFC.)

But while I may be judging you for playing in Week 17, I am still willing to help you out with the waiver wire.  By now you know the drill, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Waiver Wire Pickups: QB

Matt Moore (20%), Miami

The matchup against the Jets is definitely a tough one, but after tossing three TDs against New England, Moore now has eight total TDs in the last four weeks.  Consider him a QB2 based on how well he’s been playing lately, but if you need a desperation play, there are probably better options out there.

Kyle Orton (19%), Kansas City

Orton racked up 300 passing yards against Oakland, and this week he gets a chance to stick it to his old teammates when the Chiefs travel to Denver.  He now has 599 passing yards in his two starts with KC, and the Broncos have given up some big games to opposing QBs.

John Skelton (4%), Arizona

It’s unclear whether Kevin Kolb will start the finale against Seattle, but Skelton rebounded from a disastrous performance in the early going to throw for nearly 300 yards and two scores against Cincinnati.  Over his last three games, he’s averaging 297 passing yards with six TDs.  He’s also thrown six picks, but it’s not like Kolb was lighting it up either.

Joe Webb (1%), Minnesota

With Christian Ponder sustaining a concussion against the Redskins, Webb may be in line to start against the Bears in Week 17.  He tossed two TDs and ran for another in relief of the rookie, and he passed for one TD and ran for another when he played against Detroit in Week 14.  His running ability gives him an added dimension as a fantasy QB, so consider him another QB2 option with some upside.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Waiver Wire Pickups: RB

Toby Gerhart (43%), Minnesota

Gerhart is once again the starter in the Minnesota backfield after Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and MCL.  He ran for 109 yards on just 11 carries against the Redskins, including a 64-yard run in the third quarter.

Photo credit: Jim Mone/AP via MPR News

It was his fifth straight game with double-digit points, and even though the Bears are tough against the run, he’s at least a flex play based on his ability to contribute in the passing game as well.

Kahlil Bell (34%), Chicago

Regardless of his health, it’s tough to see the Bears turning back to Marion Barber given how well Bell has played in recent weeks.  He tallied 108 yards and a TD in Week 15 then followed that up with 121 rushing yards along with four catches for 38 yards against Green Bay.  Much to the chagrin of his owners, Bell narrowly missed scoring on a pair of goal line attempts.

He has been particularly valuable in PPR leagues given his 14 receptions over the last three weeks.  Bell is a solid RB2 against the struggling Vikings this week.

Kendall Hunter (27%), San Francisco

With the 49ers already locked in as the two seed in the NFC, don’t be surprised to see them rest Frank Gore for the playoffs.  If that comes to fruition, Hunter is a solid option against a Rams defense that has been flat out awful against the run.  Hunter ran for 73 yards on 12 carries against Seattle and is also an able receiver out of the backfield.  Consider him a RB2 if the 49ers confirm he’ll get the bulk of the carries.

Isaac Redman (5%), Pittsburgh

Playing him would be a huge gamble, but if the Steelers once again employ a run-heavy attack against Cleveland’s suspect run defense, Redman might find his way into the end zone for a second straight week.

Evan Royster (5%), Washington

Since Roy Helu was hurt, I guess we can’t chalk Royster’s 19-carry, 132-yard effort to yet another Shanahanigan.  That said, the fact that he played so well should earn him the start against Philadelphia in Week 17.  With Shanahan, you really never know, so consider him a flex play…and start him at your own risk.

Chris Ivory (4%), New Orleans

Depending on what the Saints do Monday night, the Saints may not have anything to play for, which could lead to Ivory getting plenty of touches against Carolina.  The Panthers are among the teams who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, making Ivory a strong flex option (or maybe more) depending on New Orleans’ situation.

Stevan Ridley (4%), New England

The Patriots need a win to lock up home field advantage in the AFC, and against a Buffalo team that has been shredded on the ground over the latter half of the season, that could be good news for Ridley.  He got the bulk of the work in the second half against Miami and has rushed for at least 60 yards in each of the last two weeks.  Consider him a RB2.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Waiver Wire Pickups: WR

Nate Burleson (43%), Detroit

The Lions locked up a playoff bid, so it’s unclear how much they will play their starters at this point.  With six catches and 83 yards against the Chargers, Burleson now has at least five catches in six of his last seven games and has at least eight fantasy points in five of those contests.  If he plays, he’s a solid start in PPR leagues against a Packers team that has nothing to play for at all.

David Nelson (41%), Buffalo

With New England’s porous pass defense on the schedule, Buffalo wideouts are sure to be hot commodities.  While Stevie Johnson is the best option, Nelson looks like the second choice.  He hauled in six balls for 84 yards in Buffalo’s first matchup with the Pats, so he’s a solid gamble if you’re in a jam.

Demaryius Thomas (41%), Denver

Once again, Thomas led the Broncos in targets, finishing with 76 yards on four receptions.

Photo Credit: Andy Cross, The Denver Post

He now has at least that many yards in each of the last four games.  Thomas will continue to be Tim Tebow’s go-to receiver in a must-win game against the Chiefs, who got burned by a couple big plays against Oakland on Sunday.

Doug Baldwin (32%), Seattle

The Seahawks couldn’t get much going in the passing game, but Baldwin did catch a touchdown and led the team in targets.  He should find more room to operate against the Cardinals, but keep in mind that he’s caught two or fewer passes in three of the last four games.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (31%), Oakland

DHB’s long reception in overtime set up the game-winning field goal for the Raiders.  He finished with 70 yards for the game, and he now has 17 receptions for 303 yards in the last three games.  The Chargers just got torched by the Lions and have nothing to play for, which makes Heyward-Bey a decent WR3 option at worst.

Damian Williams (23%), Tennessee

Williams had a field day against Jacksonville’s secondary, finishing with eight catches for 83 yards.  Houston’s coverage will most certainly be a notch or two above that, but the Texans are also locked into their playoff slot.  The Titans need to win and get some help, so they’ll be playing all their starters throughout, making Williams a potential flex option in deep leagues.

Andre Roberts (3%), Arizona

After catching six passes for 75 yards, Roberts now has at least six receptions and 60 yards in three of his last four games, and he caught a TD in the other one.  With Larry Fitzgerald drawing so much attention from opposing secondaries, Roberts should continue to find room to operate against Seattle this week.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Waiver Wire Pickups: TE

Brent Celek (49%), Philadelphia

Celek caught a TD for the second straight week and has been a relatively consistent contributor over the latter half of the season.  The Eagles finish their disappointing season versus the Redskins, against whom Celek racked up 42 yards and a TD in Week Six.

Jermaine Gresham (47%), Cincinnati

While he had a solid game with five catches and 56 yards against the Cardinals, Gresham and the Bengals close out the season against a Baltimore defense that has shut down opposing tight ends.  He had three catches for 48 yards in their first meeting this season.

Jared Cook (27%), Tennessee

I guess it’s better late than never for Cook, who was picked by many as a sleeper heading into the season.  If his owners held onto him, they have finally been rewarded for their patience with 17 catches and 272 yards over the last two games.  There’s no one hotter at the position, but beware of a Texans defense that has been stingy against opposing TEs.  As I mentioned with Damian Williams though, Houston doesn’t really have anything to play for.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Seattle (45%) at Arizona

The Seahawks have allowed over 17 points just twice over the last seven games, and the Cardinals showed last week just how mistake-prone they can be.

Atlanta (29%) vs. Tampa Bay

Thanks to Chicago’s loss on Christmas, the Falcons are in the playoffs, but if they beat New Orleans on Monday, they still have a chance to win the NFC South.  The Bucs come in losers of nine straight games, and they have scored over 20 points just once over that span while turning the ball over 28 times.  If you look up “playing out the string” in the dictionary, you’ll find Tampa Bay’s team photo.

Oh, you thought I meant Christmas?

Ideally you’ve been shopping the waiver wire all season long and have picked up some bargains along the way.  But just in case you waited until the last minute, there are still a few options out there in your hour of need.

Alright, enough with the holiday metaphors, let’s check out a handful of guys on the waiver wire who just might put you over the top.  As always, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups: QB

Matt Moore (18%), Miami

By now you know that it’s a sound practice to start the QB playing against the Patriots, who have routinely given up big fantasy numbers to opposing signal callers.  Moore has at least one TD in five straight games with nine total scores over that span.  New England has allowed multiple TDs to six of the last eight QBs they have faced, and they also allowed Chad Henne and the Dolphins to throw for 400 yards against them in Week One.

Rex Grossman (17%), Washington

I realize starting Grossman with your league title on the line seems like a suicide mission, but the matchup is almost too good to pass up.  After being shredded by Drew Brees and the Saints, the Vikings have now allowed 25 passing scores over their last nine games.  If nothing else, you may want to pick up Grossman to prevent your opponent from grabbing him.

Kyle Orton (17%), Kansas City

Moore and Grossman have better matchups, but Orton is another waiver wire option after throwing for 299 yards in KC’s upset win over Green Bay.  Orton faces an Oakland defense that has allowed multiple TDs to their last seven opponents.  Like the others listed here, he’s a solid QB2 based on the matchup and someone you could talk yourself into starting if your other options are struggling.

Image credit: Jamie Squires / Getty Images via B/R

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups: RB

Toby Gerhart (45%), Minnesota

With Adrian Peterson back, fantasy owners (myself included) moved Gerhart back to the bench and watched him catch two touchdown passes.  Still, he had just two carries on the day, so you shouldn’t expect a heavy workload going forward.  He’s only startable next week in deep PPR leagues, so don’t get carried away here based solely on his fantasy points from Week 15.

Jackie Battle (29%), Kansas City

As bad as the Raiders have been against the pass, they’ve also struggled against the run.  Since the Lions were playing from behind and generally have no interest in running the ball, they weren’t able to exploit that weakness.  However, the Chiefs are more likely to stick with the run after giving it to their running backs over 30 times against the Packers despite relatively limited success.  Battle did convert a short TD run and would be the goal line option this week as well.  Consider him a potential flex option in deeper leagues.

Donald Brown (21%), Indianapolis

Brown gained roughly half of his 161 rushing yards on an 80-yard scamper to seal the game, and he’s now scored a TD in three of the last four games.  He continues to outperform Joseph Addai and should continue to see a larger portion of the workload.  That said, the Texans have been among the stingiest defenses against opposing RBs, which makes Brown a flex option at best.

Lance Ball (12%), Denver

With Willis McGahee limited by a leg injury, Ball racked up 105 total yards and a TD against the Patriots.  If McGahee can’t go, Ball becomes a solid option against a Buffalo defense that has been getting shredded on the ground over the last seven games.

Kahlil Bell (8%), Chicago

Bell outplayed Marion Barber against the Seahawks, rushing for 65 yards on 15 carries to go with five receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  It was his second straight game with five catches, which makes him a solid flex option in PPR leagues despite a relatively tough matchup against Green Bay.  Still, it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t get the bulk of the backfield touches in that game.

Chris Ivory (3%), New Orleans

Keep in mind that Ivory got most of his work when the Saints were essentially running out the clock against Minnesota, but he finished with 74 rushing yards on the day.  Things won’t be quite as easy against the Falcons, but it’s worth noting the Atlanta defense has allowed either 100 rushing yards or a TD to opposing runners in each of the last four games.  Even so, Ivory is only an option in very deep leagues with Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas also in the backfield mix.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups: WR

Nate Burleson (42%), Detroit

After a disappointing performance against Minnesota last week, Burleson bounced back with seven catches for 81 yards and a TD against Oakland.  He has at least five receptions in five of the last six games, and you know the Lions will be airing it out with regularity.  Consider Burleson a WR3 in PPR leagues with the Chargers up next on the schedule.

Steve Breaston (37%), Kansas City

Breaston led the team in targets against the Packers and wound up with four receptions for 50 yards to go with a 25-yard run.  He now has at least four grabs in seven straight games, but keep in mind he’s been held to 50 receiving yards or less in five of those contests.  Breaston caught five balls for 64 yards in the first matchup with Oakland, which is probably a reasonable expectation for this game.  He’s consistent, but don’t count on a ton of upside here even with a great matchup.

Demaryius Thomas (34%), Denver

After another big game against the Patriots, Thomas now has 18 catches for 338 yards and three TDs over the last three games.  He was targeted a total of 13 times against the Pats and continues to be Tim Tebow’s go-to receiver.  Buffalo’s defense is reeling, which makes Thomas a solid option for your championship lineup.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (25%), Oakland

The Chiefs have been tougher against the pass than you might think, but DHB should enter that matchup with plenty of confidence after racking up eight catches for 155 yards and a score against the Lions.  He had five receptions for 89 yards against Kansas City in their first meeting and is a WR3 at best this week.  Despite his solid recent numbers, putting your fantasy fate in his hands is a pretty frightening proposition.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups: TE

Brent Celek (36%), Philadelphia

Apparently Celek and the Eagles aren’t quite dead yet.  He caught five passes for 156 yards and a TD against the Jets and nearly missed a second score when he was brought down just short of the goal line after a 73-yard catch-and-run.  Celek has at least four grabs in eight of his last nine games, including a Week Eight matchup with Dallas where he posted seven receptions, 94 yards, and a TD.  He’s a borderline TE1 in a must-win game against the Cowboys.

Jared Cook (26%), Tennessee

After being held without a catch for two straight games, Cook had nine receptions for 103 yards against the Colts, most of which came after the Titans were forced to go to a pass-heavy attack.  Next week’s matchup with the Jaguars is a decent one, but starting the inconsistent Cook would be an extremely risky move.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Tennessee (41%) vs. Jacksonville

I won’t blame you if you don’t want to trust the Titans after they lost to Indy.  That said, outside of their “where the hell did these guys come from” performance against Tampa Bay, Jacksonville has scored more than 14 points just once since Week Five.

Washington (16%) vs. Minnesota

The Redskins held the Giants without a TD until the final minute and tallied three sacks and three interceptions.  Meanwhile, the Vikings have lost six straight and have turned the ball over 16 times and allowed four defensive/special teams TDs over that span.

*****

Finally, Happy Holidays and best of luck this week to all of you.  Hopefully we’ve been able to help you over the course of the season, and for those of you masochists out there who play in Week 17, I’ll be back with one last round of waiver wire suggestions next week.

Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

John Fox is a coach who looks for a more traditional style quarterback, and that leads me to believe that he did not have much to do with the waiving of Orton. Orton is a quarterback that I feel is better than most quarterbacks starting in the NFL as of today, and many teams could use him as an upgrade from what they currently have.

Here are some of the teams that may have an interest in claiming him.

Ron Chenoy/US Presswire via SI.com

5. Miami Dolphins

Now isn’t this just the Dolphins luck. The guy that they so eagerly tried to get during the offseason, offering the Broncos draft pick after draft pick, is sitting on waivers for them to take.

The Dolphins have played considerably well the past few weeks, winning three games in a row with Matt Moore under center. I don’t think that Miami feels as if Moore is the QB of the future, but they might as well ride out his hot streak. Also, with them being at the bottom of the league in wins, look for them to try and take a franchise QB through the draft.

Final verdict: Unless the Dolphins feel as if they can contend next year with Orton as their QB, don’t look for them to break the bank to try and acquire Orton.

4. Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have been bitten by the injury bug pretty bad this season. They lost huge contributors such as Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeki, Eric Berry, and now QB Matt Cassel.

Most fans say that Orton would be an improvement over Tyler Palko but the Chiefs have other holes to fill as well. The Chiefs also have rookie QB Ricki Stanzi waiting in the wings for his first NFL start, and now would be a perfect time to use him.

Granted, the Chiefs are only two games out of 1st place, but they also have huge pieces coming back next year that could help propel them to contention in 2012 barring any major injuries.

Final verdict: Kansas City signing Orton is a possibility, but there are teams out there that are more desperate for a QB than the Chiefs.

3. Washington Redskins

Rex Grossman and John Beck have both played decently in their respective games at QB thus far. They both have very similar numbers, but Grossman has outplayed Beck even though Mike Shanahan benched Grossman against the Eagles.

Still, the Redskins need a solid #1 QB. They also have many holes on both sides of the ball, and taking Orton probably won’t give the Redskins a good shot at the playoffs this year. The NFC East is still a close race, but unless the Giants collapse at the end of the year (which has happened in the past) the Redskins won’t be making any noise. The Redskins could also eschew Orton draft a quarterback such as Robert Griffin III or Matt Barkley, but that all depends on where they end up at the end of the season and if those guys go pro.

Final verdict: The Redksins need a solid starting QB and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were in the running to claim Kyle Orton off of waivers…whether they should or not.

2. Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs since they came into the league, and this season will most likely break that trend. They have a playoff spot almost wrapped up because they’re in a weak division, and with Peyton Manning out this ahould be the year they make it to the playoffs.

Matt Schaub is done for the year, but the Texans still have a great running game and a solid defense that keep them in the conversation of being a deep playoff team.

Final verdict: The Texans are starting Matt Leinart this week, and depending on how that plays out, I think they will make a serious effort to claim Orton.

1. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are the best team for Kyle Orton in my opinion.

Orton has played for the Bears before and he would fit right in. The Bears have a solid defense and a solid running game, but with Jay Cutler going down until at least the end of the regular season, Orton could lead this team to a Wild Card spot in the playoffs.

This is just my thought, but Denver might want the Bears to take Orton because 3 of the Bears final 6 game are against AFC West opponents.

Final verdict: All in all, this move makes the most sense in my opinion and I wouldn’t be shocked if this is his landing spot.

After Tebow relieved Orton today and nearly led the Broncos to victory, it may be time for the Tebow Era to officially begin in Denver.

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

The team had a chance to deal Orton to the Dolphins, but they decided to hold on to him to start the year. This did not sit well with the fans in Denver, as they made it clear during training camp and preseason that they wanted Tebow.

Their pleas made sense, considering the fact that the team took Tebow in the first round of last year’s draft. If they took him in the first round and don’t have a star quarterback, why not give Tebow a chance? Either way, the coaches stuck with Orton as their choice to start the season opener.

The Broncos went into yesterday’s game with a record of 1-3 against the Chargers, who were at the top of the division at 3-1. They desperately needed a win to avoid falling into the mode of being irrelevant for the rest of the season.

The game started off terribly for Orton and the Broncos, as they saw themselves down 23-10 at the half. Orton was 6 of 13 with a whopping 34 yards and an interception. The fans were none too pleased, and neither were the coaches.

Tim Tebow was at quarterback to start the second half. The fans were cheering so loud at Mile High that it seemed like they had just won the game.

Though Tebow’s first series ended with a punt, there was definitely a different level of energy in the stadium. The fans were excited, and the players seemed to feed off of Tebow’s constant high energy.

Denver’s defense held the Chargers to zero points in the third quarter, which was the same number of points that the Chargers defense allowed in the quarter. Heading into the fourth, Tebow and the Broncos were still down 23-10 and in need of a comeback.

Tebow started the comeback with a touchdown run with 6:35 left in the quarter. The Broncos converted a two point conversion which made the score 26-18.

The Chargers got the ball, but they quickly turned it back over to the Broncos with a fumble. Tebow then led the Broncos on a three-play, 41-yard scoring drive that ended with a touchdown pass to Knowshon Moreno. The two point conversion attempt was a pass to Brandon Lloyd that was nearly caught, but was no good.

The Chargers got the ball back up 26-24, and were able to get a first down on a key 3rd and 10 that let them run out most of the clock. They kicked a field goal and made the score 29-24 with 24 seconds left for Tebow and the Broncos.

Tebow completed two passes in a row for a combined 51 yards that gave the Broncos one last shot with one second left on the clock. He took the snap from the 29 yard line and scrambled, avoiding San Diego defenders, but it was to no avail. The pass fell incomplete and the Broncos lost 29-24.

Denver has a bye week this week, but it is very likely that Tebow will start at quarterback next week against Miami. They are now 1-4, and the coaches have nothing to lose in starting Tebow. John Fox is in his first year, and the front office knows that this will be a long process. The fans are absolutely behind Tebow, so this also makes sense from a business standpoint.

The question is what to do with Kyle Orton. He was nearly traded to Miami before the season to replace Chad Henne. Henne is now out for the year, so what an interesting (though very, very unlikely) situation it would be if Orton was the starter for Miami in the game against the Broncos.

I wish I knew…injuries have just killed me…and I’ve lost each week by an average of 1.2 points. Just heartbreaking.

Some of you are probably in the same boat as me. Even if you aren’t, it’s the time in the fantasy football season when leagues are won and lost. Now is when we have to start making the tough calls.

Image source: AOLNews.com

Maybe you chose to ride Chris Johnson through the first three weeks because you spent so much money on him and “he is just too good to keep failing.” You can’t be stubborn any longer. It’s time to cut your losses and start doing the unthinkable…it’s time to start other guys that are just having better years, or maybe even cut someone you felt good about going in.

Don’t be afraid to admit your mistakes. The worst thing you could ever do is hold onto a guy too long, or keep starting a guy every week, just because you want to prove that you were right at the beginning. You may be 0-3, but all you need to do is get into the playoffs…then, anything can happen.

Let’s quickly recap my picks from last week and then look ahead to Week 4. Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Three Recap

Overall – 26 for 45 (58%)

Best Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rob Gronkowski
Misses: Brandon Marshall

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Rex Grossman, Santana Moss,
Misses: Rashard Mendenhall, Brent Celek

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16
Hits: Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Ray Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Dustin Keller, Tony Gonzalez, Owen Daniels
Misses: Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Reggie Wayne, AJ Green, Steve Smith, Jermaine Gresham

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Matt Cassell, Denarius Moore, Todd Heap
Misses: Colts’ RBs

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Jahvid Best, Dallas Clark,
Misses: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dwayne Bowe

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 13
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Kerry Collins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Santonio Holmes, Ben Watson
Misses: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Darren McFadden, Packers’ Running Backs, Adrian Peterson, Scott Chandler, Jimmy Graham

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Matt Stafford
Stafford (as long as he stays healthy) will be a Top 5 Fantasy QB at the end of the year, and the Dallas secondary should provide little resistance. Expect a lot of points in this old-school battle of Thanksgiving Day football teams.

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 375 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh’s appalling lack of commitment to the running game is one of the biggest surprises of this season. I’m not sure if their philosophy has changed (possible), if they have realized Mendenhall isn’t that good (very possible), if their offensive line has regressed yet again (probably), or if a combination of all three has happened (most likely). Either way, start Big Ben with confidence this week against the Texans.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 330 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘Em QBs for Week Four:

• Eli Manning – Lots of yards against Arizona’s porous secondary.
• Philip Rivers – Bounce back game after a lackluster game against the Chiefs
• Matt Hasselbeck – Expect him to play very well until the inevitable injury in week 8.
• Jay Cutler – Having a very solid season despite the storyline.

Projected Worst Performer: Kyle Orton
And you thought the Tebow chants were loud in week one? I almost feel bad for Orton at this point. A horrible game against Green Bay will about seal his fate and future with the Broncos.

Kyle Orton Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 180 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco has really come out with a huge season so far, and I actually expect it to continue. He has some very good weapons, and he appears to have made a “leap” of sorts. However, I just hate the matchup this week. The Jets will be angry and ready to prove to the world on Sunday Night Football that what happened in Oakland was a fluke.

Joe Flacco Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 225 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘Em QBs for Week Four:

• Matt Cassel – Minnesota’s defense is underrated, and I think they will finally finish a game.
• Blaine Gabbert – Obvious reasons.
• Matt Schaub – Troy Polamalu looks really fast again…this is bad news for the rest of the league.
• Chad Henne – After a ho-hum win over Kansas City, San Diego’s entire team will rebound well this week.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Adrian Peterson
The best running back in the league is going against the worst team in the league…and his coach will probably ride him hard in order to not blow another huge lead.

Adrian Peterson Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 160 yards, 1 TD; 65 receiving yards, 1 TD

Start Em RB: BJGE – The Law Firm
I think the Pats’ passing attack is fantastic, but Coach Belichik also knows that they will eventually need to be able to run the ball once winter sets in. A lot of people will be expecting a lot of fast-paced drives and big plays in Oakland this week, but I think the Pats surprise a lot of people and start grinding it out a little more. Look for the Law Firm to have a big day.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 90 yards, 2 TDs; 65 receiving yards

Other Start ‘Em RBs for Week Four:

• Brandon Jacobs – He looked fresh on Sunday, and he’s also becoming more of a threat out of the backfield.
• Fred Jackson – Big day for Jackson against the Bengals.
• Jahvid Best – Massive day for Detroit players…yet again.
• Michael Turner – Playing the Seahawks…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer: Texans’ Running Backs
The Colts had a decent night running the ball because they had no other choice…and Pittsburgh wasn’t really prepared for it. The Texans, on the other hand, will try to establish their passing attack first, and if the Steelers shut it down, Houston will find itself trailing early. Add to that the fact that seemingly all of their running backs have nagging injuries, and I foresee a rough day for Houston RBs…no matter who is lined up in the backfield.

Ben Tate and Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 38 yards; 44 receiving yards

Sit Em RB: Ray Rice
I know I have been burned by doubting Ray Rice before, but I really hate their matchup this week against New York. I don’t expect the Ravens to get an early lead like they did against the Steelers, and I’m afraid that Rice will only get something like 11 carries and a few receptions this week. If that happens, Rice owners will be in for a long day.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 49 yards; 36 receiving yards

Other Sit ‘Em RBs for Week Four:

• Daniel Thomas – I need him to do it again against somebody legit.
• James Starks – I saw Ryan Grant in person this week…and he looks like he’s COMPLETELY back from injury. Look for the Packers to gradually stop splitting the load between the two backs.
• Denver Running Backs – Green Bay might have the best rushing defense in the league.
• Cowboys Running Backs – If Green Bay isn’t first, Detroit is.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Megatron
After last week’s performance, I’m penciling him into this spot until he blows out his knee in 4 places and even then…I will need to make sure he isn’t in the lineup.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 7 Catches for 145 yards and 2 TDs

Start Em WR: Plaxico Burress
Once again, Sanchez really loves him in the red zone, and I think he will get a lot of chances against Baltimore’s good, but smallish secondary.

Plaxico Burress Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 Catches for 75 yards and 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em WRs for Week Four:

• Reggie Wayne – Painter is his guy…and he’s in the starting lineup.
• Roddy White – Finally the performance his owners have been waiting for.
• AJ Green – He’s good! I promise! Buffalo is also a good matchup for him.
• Wes Welker – As long as their TEs are banged up and Chad Ochocinco is an option, expect Welker to have monster days.

Projected Worst Performer: Sidney Rice
One of those games where nothing goes right for Seattle. You know, like all of their other games that don’t come against NFC West opponents.

Sidney Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 25 yards

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Minnesota’s secondary actually isn’t that bad. If you take out Megatron and one 60 yard reception by Best, Stafford actually had a pretty modest day against them. Well, Dwayne Bowe is not Megatron…and the Chiefs are awful. Bowe will be in for a long day against the Vikings.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 4 catches for 38 yards.

Other Sit ‘Em WRs for Week Four:

• Chad Ochocinco – I just wanted to give myself an easy point for my record next week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough day for the Newtons.
• Jeremy Maclin – Just not the same player without Michael Vick, plus he’s injured and may not even play.
• Anquan Boldin – Revis Island.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
See above, Megatron.

Rob Gronkowski Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 12 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen
I witnessed, first hand, the worst safety in the league on Sunday: Craig Steltz for the Bears…and boy did he win that award easily. His biggest problem is covering tight ends, as evidenced by Jermichael Finley’s outstanding day. The Panthers won’t have a great day against the Bears, but expect big things from Olsen.

Greg Olsen Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 9 catches for 100 yards a 1 TD.

Other Start ‘Em TEs for Week Four:

• Jermichael Finley – He’s baaaa-aack.
• Jimmy Graham – He’s quickly becoming one of Brees’ favorite targets.
• Tony Gonzalez – Just a touchdown machine at this point. Even though I don’t like to chase touchdowns, Gonzo is almost good for one a game.
• Jermaine Gresham – Buffalo showed us last week that they have a hard time defending the pass, and especially tight ends.

Projected Worst Performer: Owen Daniels
Troy Polamalu is back to roving the middle of the field. This is bad news for Daniels.

Owen Daniels Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 15 yards.

Sit Em TE: Vernon Davis
Philly has done a very good job of defending tight ends this year. Besides Tony Gonzalez’s unbelievable catch on Monday Night Football, they have basically shut them down. Look for Davis to have a rough week this week against the Eagles.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week Four:

• Heath Miller – Pitt’s WRs will get a lot more action this week.
• Ben Watson – I still don’t trust him.
• Kellen Winslow – Will be forced to help out with pass protection against Freeney and Mathis more than he wants.

Best of luck in Week 4! Pose your Week 4 questions below.

**********

Don’t miss the rest of our Fantasy Football Week 4 coverage:

• Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections
• Week 4 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 4 Rankings

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos Preview

• Raiders-Broncos Date: Monday, September 12th
• Raiders-Broncos Time: 10:15 ET
• Raiders-Broncos TV: ESPN
• Raiders-Broncos Announcers:  Brad Nessler and Trent Dilfer
• Raiders-Broncos Point Spread: Broncos -3
• Raiders-Broncos Over-Under Odds: 40

My Raiders-Broncos Quick Analysis and Spread Pick

Tough game to figure, but the Raiders should be able to pound the ball pretty well with a healthy McFadden-Bush combo. They’ll struggle to pass all year, but against a Broncos offense in its first regular season game after the drastic shift from McDaniels to Fox, I think it’ll be enough to at least cover. Raiders-Broncos free pick: Raiders +3

• Raiders-Broncos Prediction: Broncos 21, Raiders 20
• Raiders-Broncos Spread Pick: Raiders +3
• Raiders-Broncos Over-Under: Over

Unfortunately, the eternal King of Pop is no longer with us (he would have turned 53 just a few days ago on August 29th), and he thus he will never be able to follow in the footsteps of Bruce Springsteen, The Who, John Mellencamp, and others who have taken to the Super Bowl stage as older musicians, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t weave the musical brilliance of Michael Jackson into a post about the National Football League.

So enjoy this homage to my favorite musician of all time, Michael Jackson, as we kick off our coverage of the 2011 NFL season. Here are all 32 Week One starting QBs in the NFL…as Michael Jackson songs.

AFC East

Tom Brady (NE) – “Blame It On The Boogie”

There are high hopes for the reigning NFL MVP heading into 2011. Coming off of the second best statistical season of his career, but yet another playoff loss, it feels like there is more urgency to capture Super Bowl #4 for he and Brilliant Bill. (How else do you explain bringing in a certified turd like Albert Haynesworth?)

However, if you are a Patriots fan, how much confidence can you have after seeing your quarterback dance like this during the offseason?

Is there any kind of historical precedent for a superstar NFL quarterback being videotaped dancing in such a sacless manner and then winning a Super Bowl? I can’t think of one.

So if things do not go as planned in New England this year – and let’s be honest, the plan is Super Bowl or Bust, as it always should be when you have Brady and Belichick – then Patriots fans can simply blame it on the (Brady) boogie.

———

Mark Sanchez (NYJ) – “Mama’s Pearl”

Ever since Jets mama bear Rex Ryan named Mark Sanchez his Week 1 starter before Sanchez’s rookie season, the coach has joined Jets supporters across the nation in making excuse after excuse for Sanchez’s overall poor play. For his career, Sanchez has completed just 54.4% of his passes and has thrown four more INTs than he has thrown touchdowns.

Of course, the immediate counter-argument is that Sanchez has also played in his conference’s championship games the last two season, something no other QB in the NFL can say. And as long as the Jets keep on winning, even if Sanchez’s stats and overall play remain underwhelming, in the eyes of mother bear Rex his young QB will undoubtedly remain mama’s pearl.

———

Chad Henne (MIA) – “Bad”

To say that Chad Henne has been a disappointment to Dolphins fans would be a gross understatement. His 27:33 career TD:INT ratio has been, in a word, bad. His inability to make good decisions in the red zone has been even worse.

But in Michael Jackson’s song “Bad” he is not singing about someone who sucks. MJ is singing about being a badass. And hey, despite being scrawny, certifiably kooky, and even at times somewhat effeminate, Michael Jackson was a badass.

But can Chad Henne come anything close to badass?

Chad Henne has two choices in 2011: he can either continue being bad in the literal sense of the word, or he can carry his impressive preseason play into the regular season and be bad. Like, say, Drew Brees bad (which actually means good, in this case). And there’s precedent, so says no less an authority than the great Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders and Grantland fame.

No pressure Chad; it’s only the entire Dolphins’ season riding on which “bad” you choose.

———

Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) – “They Don’t Care About Us”

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the quarterback in Buffalo, and he is actually more productive than most people give him credit for. However, I’ll reiterate: he plays in Buffalo, which is why many people don’t give him or any other Bills player much credit.

The Bills and their fans would not be wrong to say they don’t care about us in relation to the attention they receive from the national football media at large. But, of course, it’s hard to garner much attention when you don’t win games.

Sure, people cared about the Buffalo Bills at one time, back when they were running roughshod over the AFC on their way to four straight Super Bowls, when the “K-Gun” offense was the cat’s pajamas. But now? Like I said, other than residents of Buffalo and Toronto, no one really cares.

———

AFC North

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – “Ben” and “Dirty Diana”

Obviously young MJ’s classic song “Ben” is a perfect fit for the player NFL analysts refer to simply by his first name, Ben. So let’s just get that out of the way right now.

But stopping at “Ben” for Ben Roethlisberger would be a copout. And we’re not coupouters here at MSF, so we’ll provide a second song for Mr. Roethlisberger aka Bathroom Ben.

And really, what song other than “Dirty Diana” would be appropriate for someone whose idea of a good time is getting drunk with random dirty Dianas and engaging in relations in the bathroom of a bar?

———

Joe Flacco (BAL) – “Beat It”

Do you realize that this Bert doppelganger has completed 62% of his passes and has a solid 60:34 TD:INT ratio for his three-year career? It’s quite possible, perhaps even probable, that Joe Flacco is the most underrated QB in the NFL.

But the stats are just a small part of it.

As we know, QBs are judged by wins and losses. Well, all Joe Flacco has done is beat it — the opposing team that it is — in two-thirds of the regular season games he has started. He has also won a playoff game in each of his three seasons in the NFL. Even the highly acclaimed Matt Ryan can’t beat that.

———

Colt McCoy (CLE) – “Little Bitty Pretty One”

The second-year player for the Browns stands just 6’1, which is just an inch taller than noted shorty Drew Brees. The cherubic McCoy also holds the Super Bowl (heck, Wild Card) aspirations of a starving Browns fan base on his little bitty pretty shoulders, as a town desperate for a solid QB and a winning team hopes that McCoy is the answer to its collective prayers.

And yes, I know that the Jackson 5 version of “Little Bitty Pretty One” is a cover of a Frankie Lymon song, but seeing as how Browns fans would be ecstatic if McCoy simply ends up being a cover of their beloved Bernie Kosar, it seems appropriate.

———

Andy Dalton (CIN) – “She’s Out of My Life”

In this case, it’s actually a he, not a she, that is out of Dalton and Bengals’ fans lives. And the he in question is Carson Palmer, who has chosen to retire rather than subject himself to anymore Bengals nonsense (assuming he doesn’t make a surprise 11th hour visit to camp).

Of course, while Bengals owner Mike Brown seems to be happily chirping He’s out of my life in reference to Palmer, other observers are criticizing Brown’s “damned indecision and cursed pride” seeing as how he could have traded Palmer and gotten something for him rather than wasting one of the team’s few valuable assets.

Now it’s up to the rookie Dalton to lead the Palmer-less and Ochocinco-less Bengals into 2011. For Bengals fans, it will probably just be another wicked season that “cuts like a knife”, and by Week 8 Bengals fans may be wishing the franchise, or at least the much-maligned Brown, was out of their life.

———

AFC South

Peyton Manning (IND) – “Smooth Criminal”

Is anyone smoother at running an offense than Peyton Manning? It’s almost criminal the way he picks apart opposing defenses as if he’s stolen their signals or planted a bug in their huddle.

Regardless, the reason why “Smooth Criminal” is the MJ song perfect for Peyton in 2011 is because all you have to do is substitute one word in the song to make it an almost perfect reenactment of every time the Colts QB has met with the press this offseason.

Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK
Are You OK, Peyton
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK
Are You OK, Peyton
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You OK?
Are You OK, Peyton?
Peyton Are You OK?
So, Peyton Are You Ok, Are You Ok, Peyton?

Well Peyton? Are you? ARE YOU? We’ll find out Week 1.

And if Peyton is okay, and doesn’t miss a start, then the true “smooth criminal” will be Kerry Collins for getting paid $4 million to do…what, exactly?

Matt Schaub (HOU) – “Can You Feel It”

It seems like every year is the Texans’ year.

“No really, this will be the season that Kubiak, Schaub, Johnson, Williams, et al, finally put it together and make the franchise’s first playoff appearance.”

“No, no, this will be the year. Seriously!”

With questions surrounding Peyton Manning’s health, and vultures sure to circle Lucas Oil Stadium should Peyton have to miss any time, this year really could be the year in Houston.

Seriously. For real. I can almost feel it; can you feel it? This year actually will be THE year for the Texans. I even predicted it!

———

Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) – “One More Chance”

Matt Hasselbeck took the Seahawks to their only Super Bowl appearance and gave Seattle, for the most part, above average play at the QB position on a consistent basis for the better part of a decade. Yet despite leading the Seahawks to an unexpected playoff berth and an even more unexpected playoff win last year, he was jettisoned so that Seattle could move on to the…Tarvarlie Jackhurst Era. Win forever!

Hasselbeck landed on his feet though, taking over for the departed Vincerry Youngins in Tennessee. Sure, he’s just keeping the seat warm for Jake Locker, and may not even last the whole season as the starter, but at least Hasselback gets one more chance to lead a team.

Good for him. He’s earned it.

———

David Garrard (JAC) – “Somebody’s Watching Me”

Poor David Garrard. No matter what this guy does, he just can never seem to earn himself any job security.

Last year, Garrard completed 64.5% of his passes, threw 23 touchdowns, and had a QB rating of 90.8, keeping the Jags in the playoff hunt until their pathetic defense collapsed during a three-game skid to end the season. And how was Garrard repaid for his solid season? Jacksonville went out and drafted Blaine Gabbert in the first round, meaning Garrard gets to spend yet another season looking over his shoulder with somebody watching him.

Ironically, Jacksonville is one of the worst NFL franchises when it comes to attendance and avoiding blackouts, so perhaps a song called “Nobody’s Watching Me” would have been more appropriate; but “Somebody’s Watching Me” works because it’s one of Michael Jackson’s more recognizable yet underappreciated vocal performances, and Garrard similarly falls into that underappreciated category.

This song won’t make any MJ Greatest Hits CDs (hell, it’s not even his song, it’s Berry Gordy’s son Rockwell’s) just like Garrard won’t ever make an All Pro team, but both have their moments of greatness and are better than most people given them credit for.

———

AFC West

Philip Rivers (SD) – “You Wanna Be Starting Something”

Few players start more somethings on the field than Philip Rivers. It seems like he’s always barking at someone on the opposing team, talking trash, and just generally trying to stir things up.

Yes, Philip Rivers always wanna be starting something.

Relatedly, how great of a beat does this song have? It’s slick, quick, and sweet (just like Philip Rivers’ release, coincidentally). Damn the Thriller album was awesome.

———

Jason Campbell (OAK) – “Man In the Mirror”

“Man In the Mirror” is a triumphant song about change, and no quarterback I can remember has gone through more change than Jason Campbell.

I’m pretty sure that either Campbell’s head coach or coordinator has been different for each of his seasons in the NFL. Contrast that with the stability that guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees have had, and it’s no wonder why the strong-armed Campbell has toiled in relative obscurity and frustrated his fan bases for the last half decade.

But when Campbell looks at the man in the mirror he’ll see a guy who has never had a season in which he’s thrown more picks than touchdowns and a guy who had improved his accuracy every season before dropping off last year. If the Raiders can develop a few receivers, maybe Campbell can make some change instead of just enduring it.

———

Kyle Orton (DEN) – “Human Nature”

It is to be expected that fans will want young first round picks who are upstanding citizens and who were Heisman Trophy-winning college football heroes to play over fully-formed veterans. Kyle Orton, a fully-formed veteran who has proven himself to be solid but unspectacular, needs to remind himself of that this year when, no matter what he does on the field, fans clamor for Tim Tebow to be given a shot as the starting QB.

Why? Why? Tell Kyle that it’s human nature…for fans anyway. Orton just needs to hope it’s not the nature of John Fox. (It’s not.)

———

Matt Cassel (KC) – “The Lost Children”

Matt Cassel was never the starting quarterback at USC. For the first several years of his NFL career, he was never the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. When it came to game experience, Cassel was among the few lost children who had none, but who had enough potential to continue advancing through the ranks.

Then Tom Brady got hurt, Cassel excelled, and he moved on to the Chiefs. After a rough first season he played well last year, taking advantage of a weak schedule and an absurd season by Dwayne Bowe, leading the Chiefs to the playoffs.

Hopes are high this year, but will Cassel be up to the task? If he’s not, he may go back to being a lost NFL child if the demanding Todd Haley and the Chiefs lose faith in his ability to be the franchise’s QB of the future.

———-

Okay, we’re through the AFC. Deep breath. Only 16 more QBs (actually 17; you’ll see…) and songs to go.

One song that did not make the cut, despite being one of my favorite Michael Jackson songs of all-time, is “Rock With You.” It just didn’t seem to fit with anyone.

But since you, dear reader, have continued rocking with me through this long but hopefully entertaining post, I dedicate this classic MJ diddy to you.

———-

NFC East

Tony Romo (DAL) – “The Girl Is Mine”

This is a pretty simple one: Jessica Simpson; this cute but non-famous blonde; Carrie Underwood; former MSF writer (and Chiefs fan!) and current Mrs. Romo Candice Crawford.

It seems like in Tony Romo’s world, he can always say the girl is mine.

Plus, Michael Jackson never wrote a song about fumbling a snap to lose a playoff game. So really, this was the only choice.

(Also, Paul McCartney has played at the new, immaculate Cowboys Stadium, so there is that too.)

———

Eli Manning (NYG) – “Scream”

Last year, no quarterback made his team’s fans scream, in both joy and agony, more than Eli Manning. He threw 31 TDs and surpassed 4,000 yards, but he also tossed 25 interceptions. ‘Nuff said.

Except that simply listing off some scream-worthy stats is not enough, because this song is appropriate in yet another way.

Has there ever been a more successful sibling QB tandem in NFL history than Peyton and Eli Manning? They both have Super Bowl rings, so no.

Likewise, has there ever been a more successful sibling pop music tandem in music history than Michael and Janet Jackson? No.

Add it all up and this one just may be the most appropriate song choice of all 32.

———

Michael Vick (PHI) – “Thriller”

Did I say that last song was the most appropriate song choice? It’s only one song later and I’m already re-thinking that bold and possibly foolish statement!

Michael Vick’s name is almost synonymous with the word thriller at this point. What more can I say on this one?

———

Jex Beckman (WAS) – “Who Is It?”

See, I told you the NFC would have 17 QBs rather than 16, and it’s all thanks to Mike Shanahan and the Jon Beck/Rex Grossman duo in Washington (shortened above to “Jex Beckman” because that’s so much more fun). Leave it to Daniel Snyder’s franchise to F it all up.

Despite everyone wondering who is it going to be, Mike Shanahan has not officially named a starting QB for Week 1 as of me writing this. And even when he does name a starter, does anyone think that guy will start all 16 games? Hell no.

As the old saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks you really have none. In the case of the Redskins, that most certainly is the case.

———

NFC North

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – “Billie Jean”

In my opinion, “Billie Jean” is Michael Jackson’s greatest song and Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL (right now), so this really was a perfect song-player match; but the match goes deeper than just that simple association.

Remember when Michael Jackson moonwalked to Billie Jean in 1983 at the Motown 25th Anniversary celebration? It was his coming out party as a solo artist, removed the shadow cast by his brothers, and established him as the King of Pop.

Similarly, when Aaron Rodgers guided the wild card Packers to the Super Bowl last year while playing near-flawless football, it was his coming out party as a superstar QB, removed the shadow of Brett Favre, and established him as the best quarterback going right now.

It was his Billie Jean moment.

This song is so good, as is Rodgers (did you know he has the highest QB rating of all-time?), that it deserves two videos. So here is the official video for “Billie Jean.”

Let me know when you’re done singing, snapping your fingers, and moonwalking around your house or office so we can continue.

…

Okay, onward we proceed.

Matthew Stafford (DET) – Will You Be There?

For the first time since Barry Sanders, there is legitimate, unmockable playoff hope in Detroit. And apparently I’m drinking the silver and blue Kool-Aid, because I predicted that it will happen*.

* – So, for the record, I officially picked the Lions and Texans to make the playoffs in the same season. Had I thought about in those absurd terms when I was making my picks, I doubt I would have gone through with it.

The biggest question mark on the Lions’ roster is their quarterback. Unfortunately, the Lions and their fans have legitimate reason to ask Matthew Stafford every week will you be there on Sunday? Despite his remarkable talent and big contract, he’s only played 13 out of a possible 32 games during his two-year career thus far.

On the plus side, Stafford did have a QB rating of 91.3 and six TDs against only one interception before getting hurt last year. Plus he’s been dynamite this preseason. Simply put, Stafford has to stay healthy and be there on the field for Detroit to have a shot; if he does, he and the young Lions are talented enough to finally be a force to be reckoned with.

———

Jay Cutler (CHI) – “Leave Me Alone”

Jay Cutler is renowned for his rocket arm, but he is not so renowned for his disposition. Of course, as Tom Fornelli points out, who cares if Cutler can be a jerk? If he treats people with a leave me alone attitude and doesn’t always act all Tebow rah-rah on the sidelines, what does it matter if he’s playing in the NFC Championship Game, right?

Hmm…about that whole playing part…

Let’s just say that I bet Jay Cutler wishes people like Maurice Jones-Drew would have kept their mouths shut and left he and his injured knee alone.

———

Donovan McNabb (MIN) – “Remember The Time”

Hey, do you remember the time when Donovan McNabb was one of the best QBs in the NFL? When he was leading the Eagles to NFC Championship Games (and even a Super Bowl) on a regular basis? When he was a perennial Pro Bowler?

Yeah, those were good times. Times the Minnesota Vikings are hoping they can relive this season.

Remembering McNabb’s ill-fated and short-lived tenure in Washington does not inspire much confidence, but hey, Eddie Murphy and Magic Johnson probably thought the same thing when they were pitched the idea for this video, yet it turned out pretty well. Maybe the Vikings 2011 season will as well. (Count Drew among those who thinks it could!)

———

NFC South

Drew Brees (NO) – “Heal The World”

Is any face more synonymous with the rebuilding of New Orleans in the post-Katrina era than that of Drew Brees? I say no.

A quarterback can’t heal the world, but he certainly can help heal a city, especially when he gives his time and resources to help out in the community and raises civic pride by leading the long-suffering home team to a Super Bowl championship.

The best way I can sum up the greatness of Drew Brees is to do so in the spirit of those ubiquitous Dos Equis commercials: I don’t always root for Purdue grads, but when I do, I prefer that they be truly awesome guys on and off the field…like Drew Brees.

Josh Freeman (TB) – “Dangerous”

Pretty easy, obvious one here right? Not only is this guy young, he’s got a strong arm, wheels, and similarly young and talented weapons to grow up with.

If I’m a defensive coordinator in the NFC South, knowing I have to face this guy twice a year for the next decade, there isn’t much I consider more dangerous than Josh Freeman.

———

Matt Ryan (ATL) – “Butterflies”

Though Matt Ryan always gets mentioned before Joe Flacco when people list out the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Ryan has won fewer games, completed a lower percentage of his passes, and amassed a lower QB rating then his 2008 draft classmate.

Most importantly, Ryan is 0-2 in the playoffs while Flacco is 4-3. And even though Flacco’s playoff stats are actually more putrid than Ryan’s own putrid playoff stats, we all know that quarterbacks are judged by wins in December, January, and February. So far, Flacco has gotten them. Ryan hasn’t.

So even though people are anointing Matt Ryan as the Next Great NFL QB, he still has to prove he can shake the playoff butterflies, like Aaron Rodgers did last year, before he can truly enter such a discussion.

———

Cam Newton (CAR) – “PYT (Pretty Young Thing)”

Some of these were so easy.

“PYT” is a kinetic, upbeat, exciting song…much like Cam Newton is a kinetic, upbeat, exciting QB (who just happens to also have a kinetic, upbeat, exciting smile that will make him a marketing darling should he be able to produce at all on the field).

And is the term “pretty young thing” more appropriate for anything in the NFL than a young QB filled with potential? Nope.

Winning franchises are built around winning QBs, and Cam Newton is the latest #1 draft pick to be his franchise’s pretty young thing upon which it constructs its hopes and expectations of future success.

———

NFC West

Alex Smith (SF) – “Never Can Say Goodbye”

The San Francisco 49ers drafted Alex Smith first overall in the 2005 draft. Since then, he has compiled a paltry QB rating of 72.1, has thrown more picks than TDs, and has been yanked in and out of the lineup like a yo-yo. Most importantly, the team has barely sniffed the playoffs during Smith’s time with the franchise.

Yet the 49ers simply never can say goodbye to one of the most disastrous draft choices in franchise history.

With Smith a free agent after last season, the 49ers had a chance to cut the cord for good. They even drafted a potential QB of the future in Colin Kaepernick. But when push came to shove, Smith couldn’t do better than the 49ers and the 49ers couldn’t do better than Smith. So he’s back. Fans of San Fran are just hoping that the final verse of this classic Jackson 5 tune does not prove apropos for 2011:

Keep thinkin’ that our problems,
Soon are all gonna work out,
But there’s that same unhappy feeling,
And there’s that anguish, there’s that doubt…

49ers fans can’t take much more anguish and doubt, but can anything else be expected until, one day, they finally do say goodbye?

Smith has one final shot this year to turn it around. Otherwise it most certainly will mean goodbye, for good, before next year.

———

Sam Bradford (STL) – “Hold My Hand”

In college, Sam Bradford completed 67.6% of his passes. This remarkable skill for throwing a football accurately was the main reason he was chosen #1 overall in the 2010 draft. As a rookie, he completed an impressive 60% of his passes, even with top target Mark Clayton getting injured early in the season. He also threw for over 3,500 yards and tossed more TDs than INTs. As a rookie. This is why so many people are predicting a breakout season from Bradford in 2011.

Another reason people are predicting a Bradford breakout is that Josh McDaniels is now coordinating the Rams’ offense. Yes, the same Josh McDaniels who coordinated the Patriots’ record-setting offense during their 18-1 season, and the same Josh McDaniels who made Kyle Orton a fantasy stud during the first half of last season. The man may be an idiot when it comes to personnel decisions, but he can coordinate a passing game.

Despite their lack of familiarity together, if the offensively brilliant McDaniels just says hold my hand to the prodigiously talented Bradford, and if Bradford acquiesces, these two could make sweet music together…kinda like MJ and Akon did.

———

Kevin Kolb (ARI) – “You Are Not Alone”

Last year, Larry Fitzgerald must have felt like an NFL wide receiving orphan. He went from having a potential Hall of Famer (Kurt Warner) throwing him on-the-money lasers and playing in the Super Bowl to having a trio of quarterbacking dipshits (Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton) tossing him inaccurate ducks while playing musical chairs behind center. Has an elite wide receiver ever felt more alone? That Fitzgerald still caught 90 balls and over 1,000 yards is a testament to his remarkable skills and further emboldened my belief that he’s the best wide receiver in football today.

Enter the unproven but seemingly solid Kevin Kolb, and Fitzgerald has reason to smile again.

The long-rumored acquisition of Kolb by the Cardinals finally happened once the lockout ended, and I’m sure that Kolb’s first words to his new #1 wide receiver were something along the lines of “You are not alone anymore, Larry.” Now all Kolb has to do is live up to the pressure of playing with the league’s best receiver while being paid like a franchise quarterback. Otherwise he’ll be the one feeling alone after the honeymoon period inevitably ends.

But can he?

In limited action, Kolb’s numbers are decidedly Alex Smith-like (73.2 rating, 60.8 completion percentage, 11:14 TD:INT ratio); and those numbers were all accumulated while playing in the passer-friendly system of Andy Reid. So Kolb is far from a slam dunk, but he can’t possibly be worse than Anderson, Hall, or Skelton, whose collective play last year, in comparison to the rest of the QBs in the league, was akin to the difference between the following awful video in comparison to the rest of Michael Jackson’s immaculate video catalog.

———

Tarvaris Jackson (SEA) – “Black or White”

No need for me to ramble on and on for this one like I did for Kevin Kolb.

It’s pretty simple: it don’t matter whether Seattle’s QB is black (TJack) or white (Charlie Whitehurst)…the Seahawks are going to suck.

**********

Well, that’s it. I hope you enjoyed this post. I certainly enjoyed writing it. In fact, I’d rank creating this post among the five most entertaining posts I’ve ever had the privilege to create here at MSF. What could be better than listening to an artist I love while doing what I love? Nothing. Nothing at all.

But that doesn’t mean that I got ‘em all right.

• Are there any QB-song matches you disagree with?
• Any you’d switch up?
• Any Michael Jackson classics that you’re pissed didn’t make it and just want to embed the video for all to enjoy?

The comment section awaits.

So get up off the wall and comment!

We have discussed Tebow here at MSF. He was the subject of this very pro-Tebow podcast and I and other MSF writers have discussed him extensively on Twitter, always in a positive light. And when I read this article by Gregg Doyel that included Tebow’s situation within the larger context of NFL teams that try to change uniquely skilled QBs, it further emboldened my belief that Tebow will someday be a winning quarterback in the NFL…just not in Denver.

And somehow, all of this led me to sit down and create my first photo story in a while, which deals with this very subject.

In case the photo story is not displaying below, click to view in a new window.

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Note that this is actually Tebow’s second appearance in a photo story. He had a guest appearance in this Kyle Orton-focused photo story from last season.

Also, I do just want to say that this photo story is supposed to be pro-Tebow, and though I use Morgan-Freeman-as-God for narrative and comedic purposes, I am not trying to mock Tebow’s beliefs. Quite the contrary, in fact. So if you had a different take, I do encourage you to comment, because something got lost in translation and I always want to know if I’m not communicating my point effectively.

However, with the arrival of platoons in the backfield, a greater emphasis on passing, and unbelievable rule adjustments that make it practically impossible to defend the pass, running backs just aren’t as valuable as they once were.

In fact, one could easily make the case that there are several players of other positions who are more valuable than even the top running backs.  This has never been more the case than it is this year at the Quarterback position.

But which quarterbacks should you be targeting in your drafts or when the free weekly FanDuel beat-the-expert contest starts?  And which ones should you stay away from?

Just like I did earlier this week in ranking the running backs, here are my top 15 fantasy QBs for 2011, as well as my suggestions for who you should stay away from.

Fantasy Football QB Rankings: The “Stay Aways”

Mark Sanchez

The pretty boy is probably the most over-rated player in all of sports besides Ryan Howard.  Don’t believe me?  Check out his third down numbers and his Red Zone numbers. I mean really, the guy is an insult to other QBs who have been labeled “game managers.”  He might prove me wrong this year…but I doubt it.

Joe Flacco

Joe’s the classic guy that’s “better in real life than he is in fantasy”…only he’s not even that good in real life.

Matt Cassel

The former Brady understudy has loads of potential but will be saddled by his coach’s conservative philosophy, and when you can hand it off to Jamaal Charles, that’s not a bad philosophy.

Kyle Orton

There’s just way too much going on in Denver for anyone to succeed, let alone a guy named Kyle Orton.

Cam Newton

Repeat after me: “Just…say…no.”

Kevin Kolb

He might be a good guy to pick up and stash on the bench.  Besides rookies, Kolb might be affected by the lockout more than any other player.  Six weeks in though, Kolb could very well be an enticing option, especially considering the fact that he gets to throw the ball to the best WR in the game.

Just don’t expect greatness from him early on, as he will be adjusting to a new team, a new climate (don’t discount this), and a new playbook.

Fantasy Football QB Rankings: The Top 15

15. Matthew Stafford

To be honest, if you think Stafford is in your top fifteen, he might as well be in your top ten.  He might have the strongest arm in the NFL, he plays indoors, and oh yeah, he gets to throw to a guy named Calvin Johnson every game. Year three is often a coming out party of sorts for young quarterbacks, and if anyone is capable of making the leap, it’s Stafford.

Obviously though, there’s the whole injury thing.  That’s the only reason he slides to #15 on my board.  Unless you have a really good feeling about him, I would probably lay off of him until he slides past #12; but after that, he would represent great value…especially if he finally stays healthy.

14. Josh Freeman

I think that Freeman is going to have a good year and that he may end up being the next Ben Roethlisberger.  If that does happen, Tampa Bay fans should be thrilled.  However, fantasy owners should remain wary.

Freeman didn’t have a single 300-yard game last year, and even though he has some talented receivers, the Bucs will probably rely a lot on the running game yet again in 2011.

13. Sam Bradford

In 2012, Bradford could possibly be in the top five.  To me, though, he’s still a year away from becoming a fantasy superstar.  Pounce on him if he slides past #10, but don’t take him before too many of these other guys.

12. Matt Ryan

Probably the greatest “better in real life than fantasy” player I have ever seen.  I don’t know if that’s a compliment, or an insult, but either way, be careful with Ryan when it comes to drafting your team.

On the one hand, if Julio Jones is a star the Falcons could possibly have the best 1-2 punch at WR in the entire NFL.  On the other hand, Michael Turner gets tons of looks in the red zone, and Tony Gonzalez is no longer the TD-threat he once was.

At the end of the day, how you feel about Ryan probably has a lot to do with how you feel about Julio Jones.  If you love the Alabama wide-out, you should probably take Ryan in the top seven.  If not, he’s probably a stay away until later rounds.

11. Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger won’t kill you by any means, but he probably won’t single-handedly win any weeks for you either.  If Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt, Big Ben might shoulder a little more of the load.  If not, the Steelers will remain what they have always been – a team that kills you with defense, a running game, and staggeringly boring consistency.

10. Eli Manning

I think Manning will have a great year this year.  Hakeem Nicks is one of the best WRs in the league, and even though Steve Smith is off to Philadelphia, Mario Manningham emerged last year as a consistent #2 threat.  Add to that the fact that their running game is not what it once was, and that they will probably play at least four high scoring games against Philadelphia and Dallas, among others, and the elements are there for another strong statistical season for Peyton’s brother.

Eli will not be an exciting pick, but he’s good to throw for at least 4,000 yards and around 30 TDs.  If he drops his rather flukey INT total from last year, you will be looking at a top 8 QB, easily.

9. Matt Schaub

Two words:  Andre Johnson.

8. Jay Cutler

Don’t laugh.  He’s in year two of the Mike Martz era, and he actually has a few more options to throw the ball to this year.  If the Bears can keep him off the turf (52 sacks last year), Cutler should throw for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs like he did as a rookie.

7. Tony Romo

I don’t really know what to say about Romo.  I think he’s an incredibly overrated QB in real life, but for one reason or another he always puts up great numbers in fantasy land.  To me, he’s the classic guy that you pick, take your ribbing from the other guys for drafting him, and then rub it in as much as possible when he’s the reason for you beating them in week eight.

6. Michael Vick

Let’s just say I’m not drinking the Vick Kool-aid.  Many of you probably completely disagree with me, so I will just present three stone-cold facts with no emotion that you can’t argue with:

• He is a lock to miss games at some point this year.  This is a given.
• He has looked terrible in preseason so far.  Admittedly, it’s a small sample-size, but admit it: it has you worried at least a little bit.  The QB position is a tricky one – you can never stop working at it.  Vick has unlimited potential, and last season he really put in the work that was necessary to succeed.  But he has a track record of being over-confident in the past.  If he has taken an extended amount of time off this off-season, he could definitely have a regression in 2011.
• He played awful down the stretch last year.  Over his final four games (including the playoffs) last season, he only finished with 7 TDs and 5 INTs.  He also failed to break 300 yards once.  It’s possible that he was playing injured.  It’s possible that the other teams started to figure out.  It’s possible that’s he’s just not as good as we thought.  If any of those statements are true, you should stay away from Vick as the #1 guy.

All of that said, if he plays to his potential, he could single-handedly win your league.  If you have a great feeling about him, you might pick him first overall.  If you don’t, I would suggest that you stay away.

5. Peyton Manning

His neck absolutely does present a scary issue, and he could very well get off to a slow start.  But don’t worry.  Just be patient.  If he plays 16 games and doesn’t finish the year with 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, you can email this article to me every day for the rest of my life.

4. Aaron Rodgers

I’m high on A-Rodg this year, but not as high as everyone else.  I think the Packers will be playing a LOT more games from ahead this year, and Ryan Grant is back to anchor the running game.  Remember: even with the high scoring games and lack of a running game last year, Rodgers didn’t throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs.

I definitely think that 2011 will be the year when we all officially cast him into the “best QB in the game” role, but I don’t think his fantasy numbers will be as good as the next three guys.

3. Drew Brees

Put it this way: he passed for over 4,600 yards and 33 TDs last year…and people were disappointed.  You could easily make the case that he should be #1.

2. Tom Brady

Remember 2007 when the Pats were coming off a disappointing season and Belichek and Brady appeared to be mad at the world as they ran up the score in every games and broke all sorts of passing records?  Well, I have a feeling that it’s about to happen again. I mean, good grief, they have been running up scores in the PRE-SEASON.

Brady also has great weapons again.  His tight ends are among the best in the game, Wes Welker is back, and the newly acquired Chad Ochocinco will help out more than you think, especially in the end zone.

Add it all up, and I think Brady could have a frighteningly good season, as if last year’s 36-4 TD to INT ratio wasn’t good enough.

1. Philip Rivers

Quite frankly, he’s the best fantasy QB there is.

Last year, he threw for 4,700 yards and 30 TDs…WITHOUT his #1 threat on the outside.  He also throws the best deep ball in the game, and if your league has any sort of “big play bonus” Rivers is a lock to lead that category this season.

Rivers may not be the best pure QB in the game, and he may be a huge jerk that’s no fun to have on your team, but if he’s your fantasy QB in 2011, you will learn to love him, and may end up having to send him a letter of appreciation when he wins you your league.

As I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start ‘em, Sit ‘em post, I currently lead my Week 13 opponent (Brian Bassett of The Jets Blog) 61.22-36.20 in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*.

Before you get too excited for me though, take a look at who he still has left to play: QB Mark Sanchez; RB Shonn Greene; WR Danny Woodhead; TE Dustin Keller; D/ST New York Jets. Basically, if those five players average five points a piece, I’m toast.

What will make a loss burn even more is that the team I needed to lose, PUNTE‘s squad, did in fact lose. A win and I am a single game out of the final playoff spot with one week to play. I’ll have a fighting chance. A loss and I’m done, just playing Week 14 for pride.

Needless to say, I will be watching the Monday night game with great intrigue, hoping for a miracle.

Update: I don’t know how the hell it happened, but I won! Still alive baby!

Regardless of the outcome though, you can rest assured that I never bail on a fantasy football team as long as I still have games on the schedule. I simply do not believe in it. Plus, whether I’m still alive the Blogger Fantasy League or not, I have five other leagues for which I need to get ready for the playoffs.

As always, I share my research with you here at MSF Fantasy Sports. Yesterday I posted the Week 14 waiver wire sleeper picks column. In this post, I highlight players at every position that you should consider starting and others whom you should consider sitting.

Before we delve into the Week 14 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Jay Cutler, New York Giants D
• Start em misses: Fred Jackson, Mario Manningham, Tony Gonzalez
• Sit em hits: Randy Moss, Kellen Winslow, Arizona Cardinals D, LT
• Sit em misses: Tom Brady (HUGE MISS!)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start, Sit Picks

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 14.

***Indianapolis and Tennessee play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (v New England)

No, you are not seeing things. I am recommending Jay Cutler as my start ‘em QB for the second straight week. Though Cutler underperformed my lofty expectations against Detroit in Week 13, going 21-26 for 234 yards with one TD and no INTs is nothing to be ashamed of. That’s a solid 12-15 points in any scoring system and certainly good enough to have helped you win your matchup.

In Week 13, the call was easy. Cutler had been playing well, he was facing a defense that had been carved up recently by opposing QBs, and he had a great history against them. In Week 14, the call isn’t quite so easy, but the stats and trends still suggest that it’s a good one.

First of all, let’s discuss the matchup. Cutler faces a New England secondary that, coming into Week 13, was giving up the 4th post fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. (Note: I am writing this on Monday night, so I do not know how the Patriots will fare against Mark Sanchez and the Jets, but 11 games of shoddy secondary play speaks more to me than whatever they do Monday night.)

And here is the other thing about the Patriots: they do not generate much of a pass rush from their front four. New England has to use creative blitzes to get pressure on the QB, and Cutler has been doing a much better job lately of hitting his hot receivers and not getting flustered by the blitz. Just look at his numbers: Cutler has 5 TDs and 1 INT over the last three games. For the season, he has 16 TDs, just 10 INTs (down from 26 last year), and he even has 189 rushing yards. Hey, every little bit helps right?

It’s taken me until now to really buy into the Bears as an NFC playoff contender, but they cannot be ignored any longer. The same is true with Jay Cutler. He is still capable of putting up a huge day every week – witness his 4 TD, 0 INT game in Week 12 – but what makes Cutler different this year is that he is minimizing mistakes and not putting up the truly awful games anymore. Let’s hope that continues. The matchup suggests it will.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 14 projection: 245 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Joe Flacco starts against Houston. There you go.
• Josh Freeman has been surprisingly consistent all year long. He faces a Washington defense in Week 14 that typically gives up big days to opposing QBs.
• I had Kyle Orton listed here when I originally wrote this, but then pass-happy Josh McDaniels got fired, replaced by the Denver running backs coach. With Arizona boasting one of the worst run Ds in the NFL, I tend to think Knowshon Moreno will get plenty of touches, perhaps limiting Orton’s value somewhat. He’s not a bad start, but not quite as good as if McD was still around.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Cassel, Kansas City (at San Diego)

Matt Cassel has been a revelation this season. Coming into Week 13, Cassel had thrown 22 TDs and only 4 INTs. He had been, in a word, incredible. Certainly, this kind of production was unexpected from a guy who threw just 16 TDs last year along with 16 INTs.

In Week 13, Cassel did not continue his streak of 2-TD games. He had thrown at least two TDs in four straight games, but tossed just one in Week 13. He wasn’t terrible – 17-31, 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT – but it wasn’t the explosive day we’ve come to expect. This pedestrian production was somewhat surprising considering Cassel’s success against Denver early in the season and their #31 ranking in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.

In Week 14, Cassel has a much less promising matchup. He faces a San Diego defense that is #2 in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. And before you say that they played terribly on defense in Week 13, understand that Jason Campbell had just 117 yards and a TD…and that was above the Chargers’ season average for fantasy points allowed to QBs.

If Cassel is your #1 QB and you don’t have a decent backup, he’s okay to play this week. I list him here because I don’t think he’ll end up as a top 12 QB in my rankings, and he could be sat for someone like Josh Freeman, Kyle Orton, or Joe Flacco if that is a decision your roster provides.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week 14 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Sam Bradford faces a New Orleans pass D that doesn’t give up many passing TDs. This is a good week to sit the rookie.
• I know that a lot of people like Jon Kitna, and I have to admit that he’s playing a lot better than I thought he would filling in for Tony Romo, but I don’t like the matchup against Philadelphia.
• Tom Brady faces a Chicago defense that tops in the league at defending opposing QBs – in terms of fantasy points and TD passes allowed. It’s tough to sit him, but if you have another good-to-very-good option, this would be the week to use it. [Update: This hasn't been posted for 15 minutes yet and I already take this back. Tom Brady is carving up the Jets as we speak. I think he's hot enough right now that matchup is irrelevant.]

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at San Francisco)

Marshawn, you aren’t fooling me.

I know that many of you will be impressed with Lynch’s 3-TD game in Week 13. While it was impressive, there are plenty of reasons for you to not buy into a late season resurgence for Lynch.

• In Week 13, Lynch and the Seahawks faced the Panthers, a team that is among the most generous to opposing running backs. In Week 14, Lynch and the Seahawks face the 49ers, who are among the least generous to opposing RBs.
• Look at Lynch’s game log, paying special attention to the weeks preceding his Week 13 outburst. Not only had he not had more than 13 carries in any of the five previous games, but he’d only scored once.

So, do I think Marshawn Lynch’s 3-TD game was an aberration? Yes, although that is admittedly pretty obvious. What is less obvious is if it suggests that Lynch will become useful down the stretch. I don’t think so. His previous five games speak much louder to me than one great game against a bad run D.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 14 projection: 12 carries, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams seemed to be on the verge of breaking out coming into Week 13. Then they and the Dolphins offense sputtered against Cleveland. Against a Jets D that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, two guys who split carries don’t have a whole lot of value.
• Jonathan Stewart has a nice day against Seattle in Week 13 and has looked good since returning. The Seahawks, however, have a pretty poor run D. The Falcons, Stewart’s opponent in Week 14, do not. The going could be much tougher.
• Cedric Benson faces the Steelers in Week 14. Though he is coming off a 2-TD day against New Orleans, and though he scored against Pittsburgh earlier this year, it’s still not a matchup I like. You trust Cedric Benson at your own peril.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em WR: Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (at Houston)

It’s been a frustrating year for Anquan Boldin owners. Coming into Week 13, Boldin had only six TD catches on the season. Take away Boldin’s 3-TD, 142-yard outburst against Cleveland, and his numbers would be barely pedestrian. Basically, Boldin has been nothing more than a borderline starter for most of the season.

However, signs are pointing up for Boldin’s fantasy value, at least this week. Not only did he catch a long TD for the Ravens against Pittsburgh in Week 13, but he faces a Houston secondary that is among the worst in the league in containing opposing WRs. If you own Boldin, this is the week to play him. His next two games are against New Orleans and then Cleveland again; New Orleans has been good all year against the pass and Cleveland is vastly improved since the last time Boldin saw them.

But forget about the future right now. In this column we are concerned with Week 14. Take a look at how #1 WRs have done against Houston this year. It is pretty remarkable. I’d be shocked if Boldin didn’t put up solid numbers you this week.

Anquan Boldin fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• I know that Dwayne Bowe did nothing in Week 13, and I know he faces a tough Chargers pass D in Week 14, and I know I told you to sit Matt Cassel above…but…I’d still start Bowe, who has been too good this year for us to be soured by one bad game. (And this comes from a guy who has always hated and distrusted Dwayne Bowe.)
• I like Earl Bennett a lot this week. He is becoming Jay Cutler’s go-to guy, and the matchup against New England is very promising.
• Calvin Johnson continues to prove how amazing he is. Against the Bears stingy D and with a 3rd stringer in at QB, MegaTron still got into the end zone and provided nice value. Just keep him in your lineups. Please. Even if I change my mind later this week, tell me to shut the hell up and still start him. Okay? Okay.
• You know that you’re starting Greg Jennings. Also consider both Donald Driver and James Jones as a decent WR #3 options as well.
• Mike Williams TB against Washington is a nice start this week.

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Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our start em RB for Week 14, our sit ‘em WRs for Week 14, as well as our start em, sit em projections at TE and Defense.

Commenting is turned of here, but you can ask your Week 14 lineup questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

I decided that today would be the perfect time for the Orton photo story because: a) it gives me a chance to promote MSF Fantasy Sports since Orton is surprisingly among the top fantasy QBs this year; and b) because the Broncos play the Chargers on Monday night this week, meaning it was easy to weave the equally photogenic Philip Rivers into the proceedings.

And, well, poking fun at Josh McDaniels – the guy who traded Peyton Hillis for Brady Quinn – is pretty much always appropriate. (As for the inclusion of Matthew Berry – who, for the record, I read religiously and respect greatly as a fantasy analyst – well let’s just say that I stumbled upon some must-use pics of him, and his fantasy man-crush on Orton made this the perfect opportunity.)

So here is today’s photo story, which probably isn’t as good as the previous two from a narrative standpoint, but which is still special for me in it’s own right…thanks the incomparable Kyle Orton, every sophomoric sports blogger’s best friend.

Note: If the image isn’t showing above, view it here.

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After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

In fact, that last factor was always the tie-breaker as I went through my rankings: who would I rather have starting for my team, with everything else being equal, if my life depending on winning a football game?

I separated the players into distinct tiers as well so you can see where I think dropoffs exist.

The real fun and the main idea of this post is to generate discussion, criticism, and debate in the comment section below. These rankings are just my opinion and I’d love to hear yours.

Let’s do some ranking.

Tier 1: The First Ballot HOF Franchise Anchor Super QBs

1 – Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

1a – Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Do I really need to list out their accomplishments or explain why they are the only two men in this tier? Good, I didn’t think so.

Trying to decide between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would be like trying to choose between a Heidi Klum or a Minka Kelly screensaver for your computer. You’re going to be happy either way, and while both have their staunch supporters, each side can recognize the greatness of the other.

That Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the two best QBs of the this decade is inarguable.

Here is why I put Peyton Manning ever so slightly ahead of Tom Brady: I don’t think that Peyton’s greatness will go down in history as being linked with any particular coach as Brady’s will be linked with Bill Belichick. Thus, to me, the statement “all else being equal” tips the scales to Manning because we’ve never seen Brady without Belichick nor have we seen Manning with Belichick.

Can you imagine?

Yes, Peyton had some great years with Tony Dungy, but he was drafted by Jim Mora and is continuing his excellence with Jim Caldwell as he moves into the third stage of his career. What both QBs have done with so many transient parts around them has been impressive, but Peyton has dealt with it atop his team’s coaching staff as well.

There really is no wrong answer here, but as we get ready for Colts-Patriots this weekend, I’d love to get a sense of where the majority opinion stands on this issue. Because we are Midwest Sports Fans, I assume that Peyton will win this, but let’s find out anyway.

Tier 2: Impeccable Franchise Anchor QBs

3 – Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

You know that I’m not the biggest Roethlisberger fan, and that I consider him to be something of a tool, but even the biggest Browns fan or Big Ben hater has to give Roethlisberger his due credit now. The guy has won two Super Bowls, he consistently comes up big in important spots, and is reaching a Brady/Manning-like level of being a guy that 11-, 12-win teams are built around on a year-in, year-out basis.

He’s not the prettiest, the most text book, or the most statistically impressive. But if he’s on your sideline, everyone else will believe victory is possible regardless of circumstance. That’s a powerful, proven presence that cannot ignored.

4 – Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

This choice could cause some consternation because Brees has not yet won a Super Bowl, nor played in one, yet there are Super Bowl QBs below him.

Here is how I look at that: Do you think that the Giants would not have won the Super Bowl in 2007 with Brees as their QB? Do you think Philly and their pass-happy offense would have been worse off over the years with Brees instead of McNabb? I don’t.

I just think Brees has had to wait a little longer for his opportunity, which appears as if it might be coming this season. He has proven time and again that he is a true franchise QB, an impeccable leader, and a guy who can rally a team (heck, even a city) when the chips are down.

I still rue the day that the Dolphins passed on him in the draft and when they passed on him after he left San Diego. Give this guy Tom Brady’s career and he just might have three Super Bowls too.

Tier 3: Proven Franchise QBs

A quick note about this section. Each QB in Tier 3 has the potential to be a Tier 2 QB, but for one reason or another has question marks that prevent even their most ardent fans from having 100% confidence in them. Certainly though, these are all guys that you’d be proud and excited about having as the QB of your team right now. At least I would.

5 – Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings

There is obviously a pretty big caveat with this one: he’s got to be healthy. But Brett Favre, right now, is playing the quarterback position as well as anyone in the league. He has 16 TDs with only three INTs against the backdrop of everything else that he has done in his career. Once again, Favre is authoring an amazing story.

Now, it remains to be seen whether Favre can keep it going for 16+ games. He wore down as last season went along, and could very well do the same thing this year. But in the right situation — and let’s be honest, Minnesota is the perfect situation for him right now — Favre is a legit superstar QB even at 40.

Look down the list and tell me you’d feel more comfortable with those other guys leading your team right now than Favre. Yes, they may be less annoying, less wishy-washy, and less self-centered than Favre is…but I just cannot justify putting anyone else above him.

6 – Eli Manning, New York Giants

6a – Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles

One thing separates Eli from Donovan McNabb in my mind: he has a Super Bowl title.

That’s it.

Eli has not reached the same statistical benchmarks as McNabb, he does not have as many playoff wins, and he is not as exciting a player. But bring Eli in your locker room and everyone immediately believes a Super Bowl is possible because he’s done it.

I do think, however, that even the strongest Eli supporter still has at least some trepidation regarding Eli’s ability to play at an elite level year-in, year-out. Did he catch lightning in a bottle in 2007? Can he win regardless of his supporting cast? We’re going to find out, as Eli’s career is far from a finished product.

As for McNabb, no matter his accomplishments — and make no mistake, five NFC Title games and a Super Bowl appearance is a terrific resume that is vastly underrated — we cannot say that a locker room full of players would immediately believe they are Super Bowl bound because McNabb walks through the door. It’s just the nature of the beast, and will be that way until he closes the deal in February.

8 – Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals

Like Favre, Warner’s age and proximity to retirement make him hard to place, yet his resume and continued excellence dictate that he has to be ranked pretty high on the list.

Warner proved last year that he is still an elite QB in leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. He didn’t win it, but he certainly played well enough to do so. His defense just couldn’t stop Ben Roethlisberger in the final minutes.

Warner is still capable of 5-INT duds like he threw up two weeks ago, but more often than not he is going to get the ball to right player at the right time. Plus, he’s been in every situation you can possible imagine and immediately commands the respect of any locker room he walks into.

If it weren’t for his age, I’d put him above Eli and Donovan, but they have more years ahead of them to try to match Warner’s accomplishments, plus have a less checkered history of injury.

Tier 4: Franchise QBs with Skins on the Wall

And by skins on the wall I am talking of course about playoff berths.

Fans of the teams these guys play for expect each to move into Tier 2 or Tier 3 by the time their career is over, and they’ve already come close to making the leap. All have the talent to do so, but it remains to be seen if they can take that next step.

For each one of these guys, moving into the next tier will be a function of one thing and one thing only: more playoff success.

9 – Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

I am a huge fan of this guy and came close to putting him in Tier 3. Yes, he makes funny faces and his whole nice-Christian- guy/supreme-trash-talker persona seems a bit incongruous, but this guy wins, and wins often, and is superb in clutch situations when his team counts on him.

Plus, go down the list below him and tell me (other than the aging and oft-injured Matt Hasselbeck) who has proven himself more than Rivers. He’s been in the playoffs every year he’s been a starter, made it to an AFC Championship game, and is another guy that commands the attention and respect of his teammates because they believe he will lead them to victory.

You can take any guy lower than Rivers on this list and I’ll play you head-to-head, with similar supporting casts, and I wouldn’t doubt victory for a second.

10 – Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

There was a time not long ago when Carson Palmer was on the verge of entering the upper-upper echelon of QBs in the NFL. When he led a young, talented Cincinnati team to the playoffs in 2005, everyone thought it was the beginning of a long run of playoff berths for Palmer and the Bengals.

But then the weight of the Bengals’ cursed franchise (or, namely, Kimo Von Oelhoffen) came down on Palmer’s knee. His injury shattered the team’s hopes in 2005 and began a spiral that saw the Bengals plummet to their usual lowly depths and saw Palmer fall off the elite QB radar screen.

Let’s face it, to truly be an elite franchise QB you have to be playing in January and February. Palmer hasn’t been the last few years, but appears poised to do so this year. He’s always had the Aikman-like talent and look about him, but he has been surrounded by chaos. Now he appears to finally have a focused, selfless, defensively competent team around him that is worthy of his talents.

11 – Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Clearly numbers 10 and 11 on this list don’t have many playoff skins on the wall, but they have at least led their teams to the playoffs. Romo has had an ignominious experience in the playoffs, and has become a punchline for the tabloid headlines his personal life has generated, and he is referred to as Mr. November, but there are signs that he finally is starting to harness his potential and “get it.”

We won’t know for sure until December rolls around, at which time Romo must maintain the high level of play he’s had for the past month, but he appears to be maturing on and off the field and finally is the guy in Dallas. This is his team and the decision to jettison Terrell Owens is looking better and better by the week.

12 – Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Ryan has not even completed his second season in the NFL, but he makes this tier for good reasons. He clearly has the talent, he’s already taken more playoff snaps than Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, and Aaron Rodgers combined, and he has the kind makeup and countenance that suggest he can someday become a Tier 2 or even Tier 1 QB.

Yes, he’s struggled a bit here lately in throwing too many interceptions, but if the playoffs started today he would be there once again. That’s the mark of a franchise QB and Ryan most certainly is that. He just needs more experience, but I don’t doubt that he will make a steady climb up this list in the years to come.

13 – Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

This is a tough one because Hasselbeck is the one guy in this tier who has actually played in a Super Bowl. He’s also played in more playoff games than Palmer, Romo, and Ryan combined. But when I check my gut feeling, I’d rather have all four of the guys above him with all else being equal.

Hasselbeck has been a very good QB for many years. I also think that he has benefitted from being in a very poor division that has provided him with an easier annual path to playoffs than the guys above him on this list. But the sad truth for Hasselbeck is that he’s now on the downside of his career and will probably be a constant injury risk as he gets older, considering he is already dealing with back problems.

Hasselbeck has had a great career and I don’t want to minimize it by placing him at the bottom of this tier, but power rankings are equal parts looking forward and looking back. The looking forward part just isn’t as rosy of a picture for Hasselbeck anymore.

14 – Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco appears to have a lot of the same qualities as Matt Ryan, and also took his team to the playoffs in his first season. In fact, Flacco even won two playoff games and almost made the Super Bowl as a rookie. So why isn’t he higher on list?

I don’t think that Flacco was asked to do as much as Ryan. Yes, his poise and game management ability were impressive for a rookie, and that’s why he makes this tier in the first place, but I still feel like he has the most to prove of anyone in Tier 4.

Flacco is the one guy in the top 15 of these Power Rankings that has not yet dealt with the pressure of being the focal point of his team. He is becoming the Ravens’ focal point more and more, but Ray Lewis is still the alpha dog in Baltimore. I think Flacco will need to emerge from Ray’s shadow, as he gains more experience and wins, to move up the list.

Tier 5: Talented but Skinless Franchise QBs

The quarterbacks in this tier all have talent and the keys to a franchise, but have yet to take a snap in the playoffs. As with the Tier 4 QBs, fans of the teams these guys lead ultimately expect them to journey up this list, but they have to make the playoffs and win there first.

15 – Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

He is the most talented of the guys in this tier, but has a severe fatal flaw to me: his attitude and body language. This opinion comes from an outsider’s perspective, but I just don’t ever recall seeing a winning QB with the kind of deflated body language and pouty faces that we see from Cutler. I can’t imagine that inspires a lot of confidence, belief, and trust with his teammates.

Yes, he has a cannon. And yes, he has great competitiveness and confidence. But he also throws too many INTs and the Broncos went from a yearly playoff team to a home-in-January team when he took over.

There are just too many questions about Cutler for him to be any higher than this.

16 – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers does some good things and has the potential to be a very good QB for a long time. But like Cutler, Rodgers has a fatal flaw that kills his team time and again. In Rodgers’ case it is his propensity to take sacks. He simply has to learn to protect down and distance better or his teams will always be facing an uphill battle.

Rodgers’ other deficiency is that he has not yet shown the ability be a great 4th quarter QB. Until he does, he will never be able to be considered among the elites, no matter what his cumulative stats are at the end of the season.

17 – Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Another really talented player who racks up great stats, but who is defined by his fatal flaw: he can’t stay healthy. He has played in every game this season, which is a major reason why the Texans have a winning record, but he can only be ranked so high until he plays a full 16-game schedule and we get to see him in the playoffs.

Tier 6 – The Grizzled but Inconsistent Veterans

18 – Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos

I don’t think Orton was ever quite as bad as he was made out to be during his Chicago tenure, but he certainly is not as good as people are making him out to be through eight games in Denver. And after being exposed a bit the last two weeks, the Orton hype will probably start dying down. He is what he is: a solid but unspectacular QB who protects the ball relatively well but needs great skill players and a great defense to win.

19 – Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers

I’ve always been a Delhomme fan and it was hard to have to leave him out of Tier 4. This is a guy who came within seconds of winning a Super Bowl, a guy who has been to the playoffs a good amount, and a guy who has engineered plenty of 4th quarter comebacks.

But the sad truth is that Delhomme’s solid career is ending with a whimper as he either seems to throw 4-5 INTs in a game or play it conservatively and get only 100-150 yards. Delhomme is no longer the future in Carolina and may not even be the present as soon as next season.

But I’ll tell you this, for what it’s worth: if I needed to win one game, I’d take him over any of the guys ranked lower on this list. He’s got too many skins on the wall not to at least give him that level of respect.

20 – Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs

He burst onto the scene last year as Tom Brady’s replacement but it is hard to know just how much stock to put into his 2008 numbers. A lot of QBs would have succeeded playing with Randy Moss and Wes Welker with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels calling the shots. Cassel is getting his chance now to lead a franchise and is having an okay season below-the-radar in Kansas City. But like any other purported franchise QB, he’s got to have success in the playoffs to move up the list.

21 – David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Garrard appeared to be an up-and-comer as recently as 2007. He threw 18 TDs, on 3 INTs, and got a nice new contract from the Jags. But his entire team struggled last year amidst devastating losses on the offensive line. This year, Garrard is playing similarly to last year, which means he is just a pedestrian, average quarterback.

Because of his experience, I like him more than any of the guys lower on this list, but he is not quite what the Jags were hoping for when they signed him to the extension. By all accounts he is a great guy, he is just not a great QB.

22 – Vince Young, Tennessee Titians

Yes, Vince is still a young player, but I think we can safely consider him “grizzled” at this point. He’s won Rookie of the Year, been booed and benched, and now regained his starting job and won two straight starts. He still has a long way to go to become a consistent QB, but the potential is still there.

Of all the guys in this tier, Young is the guy I’d have the least confidence in right now, but he’s also the only guy I could see moving up two or three tiers as his career progresses.

And simply because they have to be ranked somewhere and I don’t want to think of another Tier name…

23 – Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins

It would have been great to see how Campbell’s career would have gone had he been able to stay in one offensive system from year-to-year. With all of the turmoil in Washington, Campbell has never really gotten a fair shot. His inconsistent career is the appropriate manifestation of the constant flux in Washington.

24 – Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams

We can all agree that this guy is toast right?

Tier 7 – The Unknown Youngsters

We don’t really know anything about Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, Matthew Stafford, or Josh Freeman, except that none of them are as good as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. I will say that I am not a huge fan of this year’s rookie QBs and would take Chad Henne over any of them. Only time will tell of course, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

Tier 8 – JaMarcus and the Rest

JaMarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, Matt Leinart…all of these guys have been given varying amounts of opportunity and none have seized the opportunity to start (or in the case of Anderson and Russell, to start with any level of effectiveness). I have better things to do than parse through the wreckage at the bottom of this list.

Suffice it to say, these guys all suck until they prove otherwise.

So there you have it. I now step aside and leave the comment section to you. Where do you agree/disagree? Is anyone placed in the wrong tier? Your feedback and opinions are much anticipated and appreciated.

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* – Philip Rivers screaming photo credit: Hugging Harold Reynolds

* – Jay Cutler photo credit: Walking the Sidelines

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4th and Short NFL Picks Podcast

Jerod and Myles discuss Week 9 of the 2009 NFL schedule

[Note: All MSF podcasts are available for free at iTunes. Intro and outro music provided by Indy's own Henry French and the Shameless.]

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Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1)

• Steelers-Broncos Date: Monday, Nov 9th
• Steelers-Broncos Kickoff Time: 8:30 pm
• Steelers-Broncos TV Network: ESPN
• Steelers-Broncos Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Steelers-Broncos Point Spread: Steelers -3 (as of Saturday morning)
• Steelers-Broncos Over-Under: 40 (as of Saturday morning)
• Steelers-Broncos Spread Pick by Jerod: Did the glass slipper fall off of Denver last week in Baltimore? Or was it just a one week blip? We will certainly find out Monday night, but I think Denver is good enough to get more respect than being a three point home dog. Pittsburgh has been uneven this year and I think Denver will be able to slow down Big Ben and the passing game. With Rashard Mendenhall’s fumbilitis, I think plenty of opportunities will be there for Denver to get good field position and win a low scoring game. Steelers-Broncos free pick: Broncos +3

Steelers-Broncos MNF Preview and Analysis

While analysts around the league have suggested that last week’s loss against the then .500 Ravens is a “sign of things to come,” Broncos fans need not get wrapped up in such conjecture.

After all, the Ravens could easily be 6-2 if not for a back-breaking missed field goal in the closing moments of their loss to Minnesota, and a Ray Lewis unnecessary roughness penalty (that seemed literally back-breaking) against Ochocinco and the Bungles. Plus, historically, Denver is terrible against the Ravens, for whatever reason.

That being said, the true test for the Broncos will be how they bounce back from the loss against a very dangerous Pittsburgh Steelers team.

Kyle Orton’s performance against the Ravens was typical…for 2008. For 2009 however, it was his worst performance of the year. I think that much of the blame however has to be deferred onto Josh McDaniels who inexplicably refused to take chances down the field.

It has been posited (and I believe rightfully so) that the deep ball is the most deficient part of Orton’s game, and with deep threats like Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, it is reasonable that the Broncos go deep every now and then. Without that “vertical element” to the game, the Ravens were able to effectively jam receivers on the line and jump the short routes. They also were able to consistently keep eight men in the box, and in doing so, completely shut down the Broncos running game.

McDaniels will probably have to try and stretch the field (with a relative amount of success) in order to avoid another offensive meltdown.

The Broncos also have a big injury concern on their hands, as starting Right Tackle Ryan Harris has been ruled out for Monday Night’s game. Harris has done a good job this year, shoring up the line and providing Orton with enough time to get through his progressions.

With Harris out, the Broncos are left with Tyler Polumbus–a former undrafted free agent making his first NFL start. He will be matched up against LaMarr Woodley , who had 18 sacks last year in the regular season and playoffs combined. Yikes. Expect Tight End Tony Scheffler to help out Polumbus, thereby limiting his potential in the passing game.

The Broncos defense has been rock solid, and looked good again last week (with the exception of the 4th quarter). Denver’s biggest weakness is their secondary depth, of which they have practically none — leading to the Friday signing of five-time Pro Bowler, Ty Law.

Meanwhile, now that dandruff-free Troy Polamalu is back to full health, the argument can be made that the defending title holders are still the team to beat. Ben Roethlisberger is enjoying an MVP-caliber season, and Hines Ward keeps crack-blocking and grinning his way to 100 yard games.

There are, however, some causes for concern in Steel City. The first is that Travis Kirschke (who replaced Aaron Smith after his season ending injury) will probably miss the game this week. That means that the Steelers will be starting third-stringer, Nick Easton; but more importantly, that their D-line may struggle to get consistent pressure on Kyle Orton from the strong side.

Perhaps the bigger issue is that Lawrence Timmons has been held out of practice all week, and has now been ruled questionable for Monday Night’s game. Timmons has been a consistent cog in the Steelers 3-4 who has explosive play-making ability. His replacement, Keyaron Fox, has an explosive first name, but not much else.

The other “major injury concerns” for the Steelers are of little consequence.

Willie Parker, whether he is 100% or not, has already been supplanted by the more talented and better pass-blocking, 22 year-old Rashard Mendenhall, and Mewelde Moore is among the best 3rd down backs in the league. Also Ryan Clark’s absence from the game (because of a sickle-cell trait that reacts poorly with the “mile high” atmosphere) will be mitigated by veteran Tyrone Carter, who, despite not provide as many bone-crushing hits, will be just fine.

Steelers-Broncos MNF Prediction

Despite the Steelers injury concerns, I think they are the more talented team–the significantly more talented team. That said, Denver is primed for a rare Monday night game. The team that somewhat lost its Mile High dominance the past few years is still undefeated at home. I lean their way as an underdog.

Steelers-Broncos pick: Broncos +3

I’m in six leagues and am at least 2-1 in five of them, so I’m feeling pretty good.

But the equations change a little bit this week as the bye week rotations begin.

This week, Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia, and Atlanta are all on byes. This means that teams with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, Desean Jackson, and Tony Gonzalez, among many others, have to find productive fill-ins to keep them competitive in Week 4.

And that’s what we’re going to look at this morning.

So far, my start em, sit em picks have worked out a lot better than my sleeper picks on a weekly basis (Byron Leftwich last week, ’nuff said). In reality, though, Weeks 1-3 are really like the preseason when it comes to waiver wire trolling in the 50% -or-less category.

Most teams, if they drafted at least semi-competently, should not have been digging too far down the wire to plug any holes yet.

It’s a different ballgame now, with each team needing to find bye week replacements. This morning, I will attempt to identify players at each primary fantasy position (no kickers…not now, not ever) who have favorable matchups in Week 4 and could do some damage.

Here we go:

Follow this link to StubHub for great deals on NFL tickets.

Fantasy Football Week 4

Sleeper Picks and Bye Week Fill-Ins

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Week 4 Sleepers & Bye Week Fill-Ins: Quarterback

Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos (vs Dallas, 45% owned) — Where’s the love for Kyle Orton? He has throw three TD passes in three games this season and has yet to throw a pick. The Cowboys come into town this weekend and are suspect against the pass (don’t let a strong performance against a fading Jake Delhomme fool you). With Brandon Marshall getting his act together again, Orton’s numbers should be solid this week.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (at New Orleans, 43%) — Sanchez appears to be going down the road of rookie QB respectability traveled last year by Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. He has four TDs and only two INTs through three games. This week, the Jets travel to New Orleans to face a high octane offense and a defense that gives up a lot of passing yards. The Jets’ D will slow down New Orleans, but won’t totally stop them, meaning Sanchez will need to lead his team to more points than usual to win. Opportunities should be there for Sanchez to hit the 250-275 yard mark and potentially a couple touchdowns.

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins (vs Tampa Bay, 34%) — Campbell had a very nice game last week against Detroit, which got lost in all the hubbub over the Lions breaking their losing streak. He will have more opportunities to hit Santana Moss this week with Tampa Bay and their pathetic pass defense coming to town. Don’t be afraid to start Campbell this week. He could have very good numbers again.

Week 4 Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Running Back

Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins (vs Buffalo, 42%) — Ricky has had a pretty strong start to the season in 2009, amassing 163 yards with a 4.8 yard per carry average and a TD through three games. He’s also caught seven passes and a scored a TD on one of them. Chad Pennington is now out, meaning the Dolphins are relying on unproven Chad Henne. Buffalo is 18th against the run this year and is allowing 4.4 yards per carry while also yielding four rushing touchdowns. I smell a solid day at home for the Dolphins, who will be in desperation mode trying to salvage their season.

Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers (vs St. Louis, 32%) — How in the hell is this guy only owned in 32% of leagues? Coffee had a great preseason and has a great matchup this week against St. Louis. Regardless of who is in the backfield, Mike Singletary is committed to pounding the rock, meaning Coffee should be among the league leaders in touches this week. Yes, he struggled last week, but that was against one of the league’s best run defenses. Don’t be fooled, he’s in store for a good day Sunday.

Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys (at Denver, 24%) — Here’s another guy whose % owned number I don’t really understand. Not only is Tashard Choice a vastly underrated all-around running back, but when you watch this video you will see that he is also a terrific team-first leader and the kind of guy you want to root for. Most importantly, for our purposes here this morning and on Sunday, Choice should continue to get touches with Felix Jones out this week and Marion Barber probably not at 100%. Denver is very good against the pass but a little suspect against the run. The Cowboys will lean on the run game and Choice will be a major part of it.

Others to consider: Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (at Kansas City, 47%); Chester Taylor, Vikings (vs Green Bay, 33% — only in PPR leagues); Jerome Harrison, Browns (vs Cincinnati, 6%)

Week 4 Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Wide Receiver

Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville, 48%) — Gage has been up and down this season, but has a terrific matchup on Sunday. The Jags are allowing a league-worst 281.7 passing yards per game and have given up six scores through the air. Granted, they’ve played Houston and Arizona, so those numbers are a bit skewed, but the Titans will have opportunities to make plays in the passing game. Gage caught six touchdowns this year, and could be in line for his second of the year this Sunday.

Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Tennessee, 40%) – Two straight weeks of solid production for Mike Sims-Walker make him a prime sleeper pick against a defense that is giving up a lot through the air. The Titans are allowing 274.7 passing yards per game and have given up seven passing TDs. Walker has at least six catches and 80 yards in each of the last two weeks, plus he’s caught a TD. He is quickly becoming David Garrard’s most consistent target, and should be a solid player you can count on moving forward, not just this week.

Earl Bennett, Chicago Bears (vs Detroit, 27%) — Earl Bennett is tied for the Bears’ team lead in receptions with 13. He and Jay Cutler go all the way back to Vanderbilt, and their rapport is obvious. Last week, Bennett caught four passes and averaged 20 yards per reception. He has yet to find the end zone, but should have a great chance to do so this weekend against a terrible Lions’ secondary. Detroit has already yielded ten passing touchdowns this season.

Others to consider: Pierre Garcon, Colts (vs Seattle, 40%); Nate Washington, Titans (at Jacksonville, 26%); Davone Bess, Dolphins (vs Buffalo, 8% — PPR league especially); Kelley Washington, Ravens (at New England, 5%); Mike Wallace, Steelers (vs San Diego, 3%)

Week 4 Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Tight End

Finally, America has wised up and Vernon Davis is now owned in more than 50% of leagues. All it took was one two-TD game…I guess that makes sense. However, there are now very few options in the under-50% category at TE.

Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins (vs Buffalo, 29%) — I know, I know, the guy’s been terrible and I may regret recommending him; but, that said, there are reasons to like Fasano. With a new, inexperienced QB playing, I would assume Fasano will get some targets. He’s only caught three balls all year, but he’s had opportunities to make plays. At some point, I think he starts to make those plays. Fasano caught seven TDs last year, and I would not be surprised to see his first one of 2009 come Sunday at home against the Bills.

Other than Fasano, who I do believe still has some upside, all of the other under-50% tight ends are pretty much the same.

Week 4 Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Defense / Special Teams

Washington Redskins D/ST (v Tampa Bay, 29%) – The Redskins have been disappointing this season, and are without Albert Haynesworth, but they face a punchless Tampa Bay offense this week that is turning the reins over to unproven youngster Josh Johnson. Deangelo Hall and Fred Smoot have to be licking their chops. Tampa Bay will most likely try to control this game on the ground, but I don’t think they are capable of scoring many points.

San Francisco 49ers D/ST (v St. Louis, 29%) – The 49ers have a much improved defense and face a Rams team that has Kyle Boller starting at QB and no difference makers on the outside. If the 49ers can contain Steven Jackson, they can contain the Rams on offense. San Francisco’s conservative style on offense also will keep this game from getting into anything resembling a shootout. This should be a low-scoring, solid afternoon for the 49ers.

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST (at Cleveland, 21%) — I talked about the Bengals’ D in this week’s start em, sit em, but they merit another mention here because they are only owned in 21% of leagues. Folks, if you haven’t watched Cleveland on offense this year, there is almost no way to describe how bad they’ve been. If Brady Quinn plays QB, the Browns won’t be able to score. If Derek Anderson plays QB, the Browns will score some points but Cincinnati will rack up the sacks and INTs. Either way, you want Cincy’s D, which has been very productive in its own right this season, already notching ten sacks and a defensive touchdown.

Follow the link to my Week 4 start em, sit em column for more fantasy football week 4 info.

As always, use the comment section below to pose your questions, which I will answer as quickly as I’m able, and then get signed up at Explodium to join the MSF community. We are still developing the details, but it will be pretty cool and there are plenty of options for you to take advantage of with your own profile.

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* – Kyle Orton photo credit: Gremlin Dog

* – Jay Cutler / Earl Bennett photo credit: Jay Cutler Superstar

Here are the particulars:

• Bears-Broncos Preseason Game Date: Sunday, August 30th
• Bears-Broncos Preseason Game Time: 8:00 PM ET (6:00 local time)
• Bears-Broncos Preseason Game TV: NBC
• Bears-Broncos Preseason Game Location: Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver, CO
• Bears-Broncos Preseason Game Point Spread: Denver -2.5 (via DocSports’ NFL odds)
• StubHub: Deals on Bears-Broncos Preseason Game Tickets
• StubHub: Deals on Denver Broncos Regular Season Tickets
• StubHub: Deals on Chicago Bears Regular Season Tickets

As you may know, Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton were traded for each other. Bronco fans were angry, and they still are, at Cutler for refusing to do anything unless he was traded. I can see why fans would hate Cutler. I believe they did get the worst side of the trade. Though some might argue that Denver got the better side of the trade because of the draft picks, you have to remember that just because you have high draft picks, and that you may draft good college football players, that doesn’t mean they will will amount to anything in the NFL.

The number 1 reason to watch this game is to see the QB battle. I am positive each QB will want to play better, command the game better, and perform better than the another. These QBs will play like it’s the Super Bowl! It should be a great battle to watch.

Kyle Orton has the chance to make the Bears regret trading him away, but I don’t see him having a great day to change any Bear fans’ or coaches’ mind. I liked Orton, but I didn’t see the Bears winning anything with him at QB.

Jay Cutler will have to win over the Bears’ fans over the course of the season, a process which he has already begun in earnest, and this game is a great venue to continue doing so. If Cutler does well, the fans will continue to develop their love for him, and if he doesn’t…well, it’s only the preseason, but you never want to do anything that might make the fans anxious or angry.

Be prepared to hear lots and lots of booing at Invesco Field, where Cutler used to play his home games. I expect every time Cutler is on the field to hear the fans boo until he steps off. That is how much the fans there now despise Cutler. Even Cutler expects to be hated endlessly.

Another reason to watch the Bears-Broncos preseason game is that this game should feel somewhat like a regular season game, at least until the starters leave. Up through that point this game should be very enjoyable. The QBs have things to prove, and the tension between the fans and players will give this game a regular season feel.

Overall, the first half will be a fun time for football fans. It will be a break from the boring and really long football preseason. (I am a fan of only two preseason games and the adding more games to the regular season, for the record.) While this game logically doesn’t mean anything, it actually does. Coaches and players won’t tell you that it does, but I think it does. Orton and Cutler are both thinking in their head “I have to do better than the other guy,” and that alone should make the game exciting.

Whether you’re a Bears or Broncos fan, or just an NFL fan in general, it doesn’t matter. This game should appeal to you.

The whole thing about Bears fans to loving and then hating their QB, and seemingly switching week-to-week is wrong, but you have to realize that Chicago has never had a franchise QB. No matter who they have tried, it has just never happened. So when they get somebody who has the best chance to become a franchise quarterback, the highs and the lows have the potential to be more extreme.

On Sunday night, Jay Cutler has one more chance to get Bears fans believing before the regular season starts. The fact that he will do so in front of his angry former supporters makes it all the more intriguing. So everybody tune in on the game Sunday at 7:00pm CST. You won’t be let down.