I’m a Packers fan, so I’ve been on both sides of the spectrum. Last season, I could not wait for the Super Bowl to come, the anticipation building each and every day.

This season? I can’t wait for it to be over.

Super Bowl Quarterbacks

The one thing that the down time between the games does provide is time to analyze and break down individual matchups, specifically at quarterback.

This year’s Super Bowl QB matchup, between Tom Brady and Eli Manning and their four combined rings, is a great one. It’s perhaps one of the most highly anticipated QB matchups in Super Bowl history.

Super Bowl quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning (Charles Krupa, AP)

But where does Eli-Brady XLVI rank all time?

What I’m going to do is rank all 46 quarterback match-ups in the history of the Super Bowl, based on what the stature of each quarterback was entering the game. I’ll look at where each quarterback was at the moment we are in right now, before the game, rather than how they were viewed after it.

The rankings here are based on the build-up to the Super Bowl, not the game itself.  For example, last season Aaron Rodgers was a still-unproven quarterback looking to break out of Brett Favre’s shadow, not the Super Bowl champion, MVP-caliber quarterback he is today. I’ll also put the most stock in previous Super Bowl experience as well as recent individual play. Make sense?  Let’s get started.

(And I won’t rank my hypothetical Aaron Rodgers vs. TJ Yates match-up, although it obviously would have been No. 1.)

Super Bowl QB Matchups: The 8 Greatest

#1 – Super Bowl XIX: Joe Montana (49ers) vs. Dan Marino (Dolphins)

The 15-1 49ers were making their second Super Bowl appearance in four years under Montana,  while Marino had one of the greatest statistical seasons ever, throwing for a then-record 5,084 yards that stood for over 25 years.

This matchup was the ultimate combination of proven Super Bowl success (Montana’s ’81 Super Bowl), superlative statistical success (Marino’s record, just broken this year), rising star power, and quarterback swagger.

First (and only) time Super Bowl quarterback Dan Marino v Super Bowl QB legend Joe Montana

Montana v Marino may not have been the most decorated QB matchup in NFL history going into the game, but it was certainly one of the most intriguing. I say the most intriguing ever.

#2 – Super Bowl XXXII: Brett Favre (Green Bay) vs. John Elway (Denver)

Looking at this match-up in it’s context, it’s just incredible.

Favre was coming off his third MVP season, with 3,867 yards and 35 touchdowns, as well as a Super Bowl victory the previous year. Elway, then 37, was at the tail end of his career, but still was considered one of the premier quarterbacks in the league.

This was the Broncos’ fourth of five Super Bowl appearances under Elway, having lost three in the first decade-plus of his career. It was the MVP gunslinger looking to repeat against the future Hall of Famer, making it great, but only good for second-best.

 #3 – Super Bowl XIII: Terry Bradshaw (Steelers) vs. Roger Staubach (Cowboys)

Bradshaw not only had two Super Bowl wins on his resume, but he also had an MVP season in 1978. To win his third Super Bowl, Bradshaw would have to lead the Steelers past two-time Super Bowl winner Roger Staubach and the defending champion Cowboys, who had just rolled over the Rams 28-0 in the NFC championship game.

Very close to being a top-two game, and lost out by the slimmest of margins.

#4 – Super Bowl XXIV: Joe Montana (49ers) vs. John Elway (Broncos)

Montana already had three Super Bowl wins on his resume, while Elway was finally looking to break through in the win column after losing his first two.

Montana won the MVP that season as the Niners went 14-2; Elway threw for 385 yards against Cleveland in the AFC Championship to lead Denver to its third Super Bowl in four years.

The result was a lopsided San Fran win (55-10) but the quarterback match-up heading into the game was among the best ever.

#5 – Super Bowl I: Bart Starr (Packers) vs. Len Dawson (Chiefs)

It may have been just the first championship game pitting the AFL champion against the NFL champion, but it by no means the beginning of Starr’s and Dawson’s careers. Dawson was the top rated passer in the AFL that season as well as the 1962 AFL MVP, while Starr had led the Packers to three of the previous five NFL championships.

Both went on to be Hall of Famers, and having the first Super Bowl feature such great talent helped pave the way for the growth of the NFL.

#6 – Super Bowl X: Terry Bradshaw (Steelers) vs. Roger Staubach (Cowboys)

Both quarterbacks were Super Bowl champions at this point, but their rematch three years later was a bit more anticipated. Aren’t they always?

#7 – Super Bowl XXVII: Troy Aikman (Cowboys) vs. Jim Kelly (Bills)

This matchup was a repeat of the year before, and it was Kelly’s fourth straight Super Bowl appearance, while Aikman had earned Super Bowl MVP honors the season before.

The question was whether or not Dallas would be able to repeat, as Aikman had played phenomenally in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco but had left the game with a concussion. Kelly was clearly playing at a high level, as Buffalo had gone 12-4 that season, but the question remained whether he would finally be able to win the big one.

#8 – Super Bowl XLVI: Tom Brady (Patriots) vs. Eli Manning (Giants)

This is where I think this year’s Super Bowl quarterback matchup ranks.

There are obviously plenty of people talking about it, especially since it’s the rematch of Super Bowl 42. It is Brady’s chance to cement himself as one of the top-3 quarterbacks of all time, while a win for Eli could push him into permanent elite conversation.

All-Time Super Bowl Quarterback Matchups Poll

Let’s take a quick poll break. The top 8 pretty much has it all: both of the Staubach-Bradshaw matchups, one each of the Aikman-Kelly and Brady-Manning matchups, as well as legends like Montana, Marino, Favre, Elway, Starr, and Dawson.

You’ve seen my top 8. Which one do you think should be #1?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Super Bowl QB Matchups: The Best Of The Rest

#9 – Super Bowl VIII: Bob Griese (Dolphins) vs. Fran Tarkenton (Vikings)

Griese led Miami, in the year after he led the Dolphins to a perfect season, to a third straight Super Bowl appearance, the first team to accomplish such a feat. Minnesota was perhaps better known for the “Purple People Eaters” on defense, they did feature Fran Tarkenton, a future Hall-of-Famer in his own right.

#10 – Super Bowl XXIII: Joe Montana (49ers) vs. Boomer Esiason (Bengals)

While Montana had the 49ers in the Super Bowl for the third time in eight seasons, it was Esiason who was the league MVP in 1988. The game was good too, with Montana leading San Fran on the “Joe Cool” drive to win the game.

#11 – Super Bowl XI: Ken Stabler (Raiders) vs. Fran Tarkenton (Vikings)

Tarkenton was the headliner of this matchup, who at age 36 had led the Vikings to their third Super Bowl in four years. But Stabler led Oakland to a 15-1 record entering the game, and The Snake had also won the MVP just two years prior, in 1974.

#12 – Super Bowl XLIII: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) vs. Kurt Warner (Cardinals)

Another instance of two previous Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks competing against each other.

Roethlisberger had Pittsburgh in its second Super Bowl in four years, but Warner, in his third Super Bowl appearance, was the story. He had to earn the starting job from Matt Leinart and had Arizona in the playoffs at just 9-7. He played spectacular in the playoffs, however, leading the Cardinals to 30-plus points in each of the three playoff games up to that point.

#13 – Super Bowl XLIV: Drew Brees (Saints) vs. Peyton Manning (Colts)

Brees-Manning was perhaps the better straight quarterback match-up than Roethlisberger-Warner the season before, but this was Brees’ first appearance in a Super Bowl, so he did not have the stature he does now.

Still, Manning was the MVP that season, and Brees was no slouch, throwing for 4,338 yards and had a passer rating of 109.6, so this was a highly anticipated matchup between two prolific quarterbacks.

#14 – Super Bowl XXVII: Troy Aikman (Cowboys) vs. Jim Kelly (Bills)

Aikman’s first Super Bowl, Kelly’s third straight. Better the next year.

#15 – Super Bowl IX: Terry Bradshaw (Steelers) vs. Fran Tarkenton (Vikings)

Perhaps the best defensive matchup ever, featuring the Steel Curtain against the Purple People Eaters, but Tarkenton was in his second straight Super Bowl and Bradshaw was in the middle of his Hall of Fame career.

#16 – Super Bowl XXVIII: Jim Plunkett (Raiders) vs. Joe Theismann (Redskins)

Maybe not the most elite of matchups from a name value perspective, but both already had a Super Bowl win on their resume entering the game, which had only happened twice to date.

#17 – Super Bowl XXXIX: Tom Brady (Patriots) vs. Donovan McNabb (Eagles)

Brady was playing in his third Super Bowl in four years against a perennial Pro Bowler in McNabb playing in his first.

#18 – Super Bowl XLVI: Eli Manning (Giants) vs. Tom Brady (Patriots)

The build-up was there based on the Patriots being 18-0 at the time, but there were serious doubts about Eli Manning. Why does everybody doubt this kid again?

Eli Manning finally earned some respect by leading the Giants to a Super Bowl 42 upset of New England. He can gain even more respect on Sunday.

#19 – Super Bowl VI: Roger Staubach (Cowboys) vs. Bob Griese (Dolphins)

The first Super Bowl appearance for each of these quarterbacks, at least one of whom would appear in five of the next seven Super Bowls.

#20 – Super Bowl XLV: Aaron Rodgers (Packers) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)

This ranking is actually based of it being Roethlisberger’s third Super Bowl appearance, and it came in the midst of Rodgers’ ascendance to one of the game’s elite, but he wasn’t truly there until this game was played.

#21 – Super Bowl II: Bart Starr (Packers) vs. Daryle Lamonica (Raiders)

Lamonica was that season’s (1967) AFL MVP, and that Starr guy was pretty good too.

#22 – Super Bowl XXXI: Brett Favre (Packers) vs. Drew Bledsoe (Patriots)

The two had combined for six Pro Bowls plus two MVPs, both of which were awarded to Favre, including his second straight in 1996.

#23 – Super Bowl XXI: Phil Simms (Giants) vs. John Elway (Broncos)

This was Elway’s first Super Bowl, on the heels of The Drive, but the Broncos ran into Simms’ 14-2 Giants, better known for the Lawrence Taylor-led defense.

 #24 – Super Bowl XVI: Joe Montana (49ers) vs. Ken Anderson (Bengals)

Both were young quarterbacks coming into their own, and while Montana would eventually win four Super Bowls, Anderson was the 1981 MVP.

#25 – Super Bowl XXX: Troy Aikman (Cowboys) vs. Neil O’Donnell (Steelers)

Aikman’s third appearance in four years, while O’Donnell was an effective manager of 11-5 Pittsburgh, throwing for just under 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns against just seven interceptions.

#26 – Super Bowl XII: Roger Staubach (Cowboys) vs. Craig Morton (Broncos)

Both quarterbacks’ second Super Bowl appearance, with Staubach leading Dallas to the win in Super Bowl VI and Morton coming up short for those same Cowboys in Super Bowl V.

#27 – Super Bowl XXVI: Mark Rypien (Redskins) vs. Jim Kelly (Bills)

Kelly was making his second straight Super Bowl appearance, while Rypien led the NFC in passer rating at 97.9 with protection from “The Hogs”.

#28 – Super Bowl XXXIII: John Elway (Broncos) vs. Chris Chandler (Falcons)

Chandler led the Falcons to a surprising 14-2, but Elway’s fifth Super Bowl appearance, and second straight, was the talk.

#29 – Super Bowl XXXIX: Steve Young (49ers) vs. Stan Humphries (Chargers)

Humphries had the surprise Chargers in the Super Bowl, but this was about Steve Young finally getting his shot at a title and monkey off his back.

Steve Young finally became a Super Bowl-winning quarterback and emerged from Joe Montana's considerable shadow with a historic performance against the Chargers.

#30 – Super Bowl VII: Bob Griese (Dolphins) vs. Billy Kilmer (Redskins)

Griese was looking to avenge the Super Bowl loss and did so with a perfect Dolphins team; and then there was Billy Kilmer, and you don’t know who he is either.

#31 – Super Bowl III: Joe Namath (Jets) vs. Earl Morrall (Colts)

Namath’s guarantee is famous, but he was a slightly-above-average quarterback on the field despite his star power, while Morrall was filling in for an injured Johnny Unitas.

#32  - Super Bowl XIV: Terry Bradshaw (Steelers) vs. Vince Ferragamo (Rams)

Ferragamo was a back-up for Pat Haden and was not great, bringing down the fact that Bradshaw was playing in his fourth Super Bowl.

#33 – Super Bowl XV: Jim Plunkett (Raiders) vs. Ron Jaworski (Eagles)

Two quarterbacks you remember being as better as they actually were.

#34 – Super Bowl IV: Len Dawson (Chiefs) vs. Joe Kapp (Vikings)

Three years after losing to Bart Starr, Dawson finally got his win.

#35 – Super Bowl XXII: Doug Williams (Redskins) vs. John Elway (Broncos)

Williams was fortunate to have a loaded Redskins team, while Elway had Denver in the Super Bowl for a second straight year.

#36 – Super Bowl XXXIV: Kurt Warner (Rams) vs. Steve McNair (Titans)

Warner was the engineer of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” but Eddie George was the main threat for Tennessee.

#37 – Super Bowl XXXVI: Tom Brady (Patriots) vs. Kurt Warner (Rams)

2001 Tom Brady was just the guy who took over for Drew Bledsoe, not the 2012 Tom Brady he is today.

#38 – Super Bowl XL: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) vs. Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks)

Big Ben was still somewhat unproven in his second year, and while Hasselbeck was efficient for Seattle, MVP Shaun Alexander was the driving force.

#39 – Super Bowl XXV: Jeff Hostetler (Giants) vs. Jim Kelly (Bills)

Only Kelly’s first Super Bowl, and Hostetler was an injury replacement for Phil Simms.

#40 – Super Bowl V: Johnny Unitas (Colts) vs. Craig Morton (Cowboys)

Unitas was 37, and Morton was in a QB controversy all season with Roger Staubach.

#41 – Super Bowl XLI: Peyton Manning (Colts) vs. Rex Grossman (Bears)

Peyton finally got to his first Super Bowl, but this match-up is dragged waaaaay down by Sexy Rexy.

In Rex's defense, the weather was awful and Peyton Manning didn't play particularly well either.

#42 – Super Bowl XXXVIII: Tom Brady (Patriots) vs. Jake Delhomme (Panthers)

Brady was going for two out of three, but he was facing the Panthers, who made it on the strength of their running game.

#43- Super Bowl  XVII: Joe Theismann (Redskins) vs. David Woodley (Dolphins)

Theismann wasn’t great, and Woodley wasn’t anybody.

#44 – Super Bowl XXXVII: Brad Johnson (Buccaneers) vs. Rich Gannon (Raiders)

Gannon was the MVP, but the Bucs were all about defense.

#45 – Super Bowl XXXV: Trent Dilfer (Ravens) vs. Kerry Collins (Giants)

Most people’s worst match-up, but only second-worst for me.

#46 – Super Bowl XX:  Jim McMahon (Bears) vs. Tony Eason (Patriots)

Eason had more interceptions than touchdowns in the regular season, while the Bears had Payton, Singletary and the Fridge, and McMahon was largely an afterthought outside his persona and sunglasses.

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So there are the rankings. 1-46. Every Super Bowl quarterback matchup ever.

The question now, as it was when we ranked the 13 best Super Bowl plays of all-time, and when we ranked the 10 best Super Bowl commercials of all-time, is what choices do you agree/disagree with? What did we get right, and what did we get wrong?

That’s what the comment section is for. Chime in below!

This is the first post in Kurt’s epic quest to identify the NFL’s Ultimate Franchise Player. For an explanation of his methodology for choosing each franchise’s ultimate franchise player, and then how you and he will choose the NFL’s Ultimate Franchise Player from that list, click here.

To see all the posts in this series, of which there will be one for every franchise, click here.

The roots of the Arizona Cardinals go back further than any National Football League franchise, being founded by Chicago’s Morgan Athletic Club in 1898 – having no idea that more then a century later the outfit would be playing in a retractable-roofed stadium in the middle of the Arizona desert.

The Cardinals got their handle in 1915 after being given maroon hand-me-downs from the University of Chicago that had faded significantly in color. The franchise took the Route 66 road to their eventual home over the space of several generations, starting at Chicago’s Comiskey Park from the early 1920’s through 1959 before relocating to St. Louis and eventually Arizona in 1988.

As charter members of the National Football League in 1920, there is obviously a lot of quantity to choose from for my first installment of the NFL’s Ultimate Franchise Player series. Unfortunately, the Cardinals franchise is perhaps one of the most perennially-losing outfits in the history of professional sports.

The Cardinals have only won two NFL titles in 90+ seasons: a disputed title in 1925 (pre title game era) and then in 1947. By far the Cards most recent success was catching lightning in a bottle following the 2008 regular season and nearly winning Super Bowl 43.

There is no member the NFL Network’s list of the Top 100 all-time NFL players (which aired in 2010) who played the majority of his career with the Cardinals. But someone from the all-time Cardinals roster will make history by being named the franchise’s ‘best ever’ and earning the first automatic bid to our eventual 64-player field to determine pro football’s Ultimate Franchise Player.

Yes, this is going to be far better than your typical 32-page, solicitation interrupted slideshow…

THOSE DESERVING CONSIDERATION

Charley Trippi/Pat Harder – (Late 1940’s)

During their tenure in Chicago, the Cards were most relevant immediately following World War II. In a quest to win an NFL title (along with a Kentucky Derby), owner Charley Bidwell went out to acquire a ‘dream backfield’, two of the most prominent members being Trippi and Harder.

Trippi was the unofficial MVP of the 1947 NFL title game, scoring on a 44-yard run and 75-yard punt return on an icy field. Trippi is still alive today at age 90.

Also a legend in University of Wisconsin football history, Harder was the first NFL player to record over 100 points in three consecutive seasons, in part due to his contributions as place-kicker. Harder would later become a game official in the NFL.

Ollie Matson (RB – 1952-58)

One of pro football’s first African-American stars, Matson was a six-time All-Pro in his seven years with the team. Matson would go on to play 15 years in the NFL in all, and he was also a two-time track medalist at the 1952 Summer Olympics.

Roy Green (CB/WR – 1979-90)

‘Jet Stream’ Green began his career on defense and tied a league record with a 106-yard kickoff return as a rookie. Not long after, Green moved to offense and would go on to average 19.9 yards per catch over a 12-year career, scoring 26 touchdowns in the 1983-84 seasons.

Mel Gray (WR 1971-82)

Not to be confused with the 1990’s Detroit Lions return specialist, Gray was a deep threat during the Don Coryall era in St. Louis. As a high-schooler in 1967, Gray ran the 100-yard dash in 9.4 seconds, a national record that would stand for 12 years.

Terry Metcalf (RB 1973-77)

One of the more dynamic return men of his era, Metcalf recorded 2,462 all-purpose yards in a 14-game season in 1975, a year in which St. Louis made the playoffs. Metcalf left the Cards after five seasons to take a money grab in the Canadian Football League before playing one final year with the Washington Redskins in 1981.

Son Eric Metcalf would go on to have a 14-year career in the NFL from 1989-2002.

Jim Hart (QB 1966-83)

For over half of the team’s 28-year run in St. Louis, Jim Hart was the Cardinals’ QB. The peak of Hart’s career came in 1974-77, in which he was a Pro Bowl selection all four years.

Normally a quarterback with a 19-year career (Hart would play one final year as a backup with the Redskins) would have merited more run, but Hart’s career was more steady than spectacular, and he only had a career completion % of 51.1.

When thinking of 1970’s era QB’s, names like Griese, Staubach, Stabler, and Bradshaw (who all won championships) come to mind. Hart’s career rivals more of that of Ken Anderson or Joe Ferguson.

Neil Lomax (QB 1981-89)

He first gained notoriety as a collegian putting up video game-like numbers in what would become known as the Run and Shoot offense at Division 2 Portland State.

In 1984, Lomax was a poor-man’s Dan Marino, throwing for over 4,600 yards and 28 touchdowns.

A degenerative hip (that would eventually be replaced) short-circuited Lomax’s career after eight seasons.

Ottis Anderson (RB 1979-86)

The eighth overall draft pick out of the University of Miami, O.J. Anderson rushed for 193 yards in his first NFL game, and he would end up eclipsing 1,600 yards on the ground as a rookie. With the exception of the 1982 strike season,

Ottis would go over 1,000 yards in each of his first six seasons. Injuries curtailed Ottis’s productiveness, and was eventually released by the Cards in 1986. Anderson would have a career resurgence with the New York Giants, leading the team to its Super Bowl 25 victory.

In all, Ottis ended up with a 14-year career, much longer than your typical running back.

Jim Thorpe (1929)

He was possibly the best athlete of the 20^th Century, period. Thorpe won the decathlon and pentathlon at the 1912 Summer Olympics, thought the medals were ultimately vacated (but reinstated in 1983) upon discovery that Thorpe had moonlighted playing semi-pro baseball. Thorpe wound up playing Major League Baseball, barnstormed with a basketball team, and played for many professional football teams, including the Cardinals and New York Giants.

Thorpe is a member of the NFL’s All-1920’s team and made his largest contributions in vastly increased gates on the teams he played on. Thorpe is ranked #37 on the NFL Network’s Top-100 countdown, and that may be a high enough RPI to get Thorpe eventually included in our 64-player tourney.

Dick ‘Night Train’ Lane (DB 1952-65)

Undrafted and not satisfied with his job at an aircraft facility, Lane showed up at Los Angeles Rams training camp in 1952 and wound up intercepting 14 passes that season. Lane would split the final twelve years of his career between the Chicago Cardinals and Detroit Lions.

In 1999 Lane would  be ranked #19 in The Sporting News rank of all-time top pro football players, and the NFL Network’s countdown had him at #34. Again those are numbers that could be worthy of an eventual at-large selection – although Roger Goodell probably would not approve of Night Train’s head-high tackles under today’s rule package.

Pat Tillman (DB 1998-2001)

Pat Tillman holds a special place in the hearts of many, and since his passing on a battlefield in Afghanistan in 2004, some have called for his induction in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. It would not be the worst move the HOF selection committee could possibly make.

A standout on the football field, Tillman’s sacrifice to the game to serve in the United States military and eventually pay the ultimate price goes down as his lasting legacy.

THE FINAL FIVE

Dan Dierdorf (RT 1971-83)

Today, Dierdorf is more known as a broadcaster (in which he is also now in the Hall of Fame) than as a player. But as a mainstay lineman in the 1970s Dierdorf was money, being part of an offensive line that only allowed eight sacks in the entire 1975 season.

Image credit: Neil Leifer

Dierdorf allowed a sack in a 1975 Divisional Playoff game, and did not allow another until Week 1 of the 1978 season. In all, Dierdorf was a five-time All-Pro selection.

Larry Wilson (FS 1970-82)

The architect of what today is known as the safety blitz. Nicknamed ‘Wildcat’, the blitz became Wilson’s calling card early in his career and his signature. Wilson also was not bad dropping back in coverage, intercepting 52 passes in his career, at least one coming with casts on each arm from two broken wrists.

An eight-time All-Pro selection over a nine-year span from 1963-1971. Wilson remained with the organization from 1973-2002 in a variety of capacities, including scouting, personnel, VP/General Manager, and even a turn as interim head coach.

Roger Wehrli (CB 1969-82)

Crank up some more vintage 1970s NFL Films music. A standout at the University of Missouri, a pre-draft 40-yard timing of 4.5 vaulted Wehrli to the 19^th overall pick in the 1969 NFL Draft, and like Wilson and Dierdorf, he played his entire career with the Cardinals.

According to division rival Roger Staubach, Wehrli originated the phrase ‘shutdown corner.’ For his career, Wehrli had 40 interceptions and 19 fumble recoveries and was a five-time All-Pro selection. He also served as the team’s holder.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR 2004-present)

Fitzgerald vaults up onto the short-list after one of his finest seasons yet, 1,411 receiving yards and a 17.6 yard average, nearly four yards above his career average. It’s absolutely scary what he could do if the Cards had a real quarterback – well just think back to the final quarter of Super Bowl 43 to get an idea.

With a good 4-5 years left in his career, Larry may very well cement his legacy as the Cards best ever player by 2015-16.

Kurt Warner (QB 2005-09)

Of my final five, the previous four have played every down of their careers with the Cards, accounting for 48 years combined. Warner only wore red for five years, starting 57 regular season games, but it is during that time that Warner made the franchise relevant for one of the few times since moving to Arizona in 1988 and brought the team to within a whisper of a World Championship.

Warner is ranked #68 overall by Pro Football Reference’s Elo-Rater. Complicating Warner’s candidacy though is that he split his career between the Cards and Rams (and Giants), and is unlikely to earn a nomination as Rams best-ever player or an at-large selection into the 64-player field.

THE ENVELOPE PLEASE

I couldn’t have possibly picked a tougher task for my first automatic bid.

Dierdorf, Wilson, and Wehrli were all franchise players I enjoyed watching growing up. Fitzgerald and Warner represent a more recent era, with Larry Fitzgerald on track to being a Hall of Fame receiver and Warner perhaps getting a call from Canton in as soon as three years time.

Pro Football Reference has Wilson ranked #145, Dierdorf #163, Wehrli #204, and Fitzgerald #233 (but he should be much higher in my opinion).

I’m going to hedge on future results as well as the past here.

My selection as the Cardinals’ Ultimate Franchise Player is…

LARRY FITZGERALD

Stay tuned for the next installment of MSF’s Ultimate NFL Franchise Player Tournament.

Making matters worse, said quarterback – the infamous Derek Anderson – was caught by MNF cameras late in the game smiling/laughing (depending on your interpretation). Anderson was asked about it during his post game press conference and had his Denny Green/Jim Mora/Herm Edwards moment that will go down in press conference infamy.

As the dust settled today, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt announced that Anderson would remain his starting quarterback. He also attempted to hold a serious discussion with Anderson about his inappropriate and untimely giggling. What follows is a photo diary that captures the noteworthy moments of this critical conversation between player and coach.

Note: video of Anderson’s post game rant is embedded below the photo story for reference.

Note: if for some reason you can’t view the image above, view it here.

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Here is video of Anderson smiling on the sidelines and his post-game reaction:

Previous previews: Detroit Lions. Chicago Bears. Minnesota Vikings.]

Way back in January, I remember watching the Wild Card playoff game between the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers alone in my house. I’m not sure exactly why I was alone, but there I was – just me and a stash of Leinenkugel’s Original beer.

I do not like Leinenkugel’s Original beer. That didn’t matter though after the Packers ended the first quarter with two turnovers, down 17-0. It also didn’t matter after a brief foray into a comeback that the Cardinals quickly shot down, as they went up 31-10 in the third.

No, at those points in the day, Leinie’s was my one and only true friend in this world. It might’ve been the only thing keeping my heart from punching its way out of my chest during the rest of that freaking game.

Then came the comeback: the onside kick; Larry Fitzgerald; the second comeback; the missed field goal; the missed opportunity; and whatever the hell that last play was. It was there, and it was gone, and the season with it.

God, going through all this stuff makes me wonder if the game actually happened. Then again, maybe that was the beer.

Ever since that game ended, I can’t seem to stop it from rattling around in my head. The more and more I think about it, I see that Wild Card playoff game as the framework for this upcoming Packer season in a nutshell.

I believe the same promises, the same pitfalls, the same emotional blender from that game, which covered all corners of the sport of football – and revealed so much about this Packer team – will shape this coming season.

And here we are. The Packers have spent the summer in the crosshairs of high expectations, right where they left off.

Green Bay Packers Offense

For its part, the offense, so cold-blooded and efficient for most of that playoff comeback, shouldn’t miss a beat.

Of course, it begins with Aaron Rodgers. Equal parts calm and cocky, he is perfect for this offense and franchise and has plenty left to prove.

As a whole, the offense should be able to go wherever they want on the field with a better (they have to be better, right?) offensive line, a deep receiving corps. and tight end Jermichael Finley.

Finley, who blossomed at the end of last year, could be one of the toughest players to defend this year. His oft-used Twitter acronym, “Y.O.T.T.O.”, which stands for Year of the Take Over, suggests he is aware of this. That, or he’s really into predicting alien invasions.

If the running game can be honest, we’ll call it a balanced attack.

Green Bay Packers Defense

So if the offense is the sure thing, the rest is a blind guy throwing darts at a wall. Okay, maybe that’s an overstatement. The defense isn’t as ragged as Kurt Warner and the Cardinals made them out to be. They aren’t “29-33, 379 yards and five touchdowns” bad, but they were exposed that day, and it is a problem.

With veterans Al Harris and Atari Bigby out at least six weeks, it looks like the secondary will be made up of rookies Morgan Burnett and Sam Shields, with veterans Tramon Williams, Nick Collins and Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson – and no, it does not get old saying that – being relied upon even more. The backups feature more unproven young bucks, meaning growing pains should be expected and Woodson will have to continue playing utility knife.

A good pass rush would help a secondary possibly in need of fewer seconds of coverage time, but, uh, the Packers could use some new blood there, too. Clay Matthews was brilliant in pass rushing last year, but the combed-over Dom Capers needs to dig more sacks up out of his 3-4 scheme.

Nothing may have stopped Warner that fateful day, but something more than one sack for a loss of four yards might’ve helped a bit. Onus will be on Cullen Jenkins and another linebacker to emerge alongside Matthews.

Green Bay Packers Special Teams

Then there are special teams. Sometimes I wish the Packers would just forego this idea of the necessity of special teams altogether, because there are times it seems as though they’d be better off doing such. The eventual choice at the always-up-in-the-air punter position, between Tim Masthay and Chris Bryan, will hopefully bring some continuity to the unit due to head coach Mike McCarthy’s insistence that punters be field goal holders as well.

If this has been Mason Crosby’s problem then I am a) still not believing it, yet b) optimistic that a consistent holder will help the inconsistent Crosby. Because damn, missed field goals are the worst. As are shanked punts, and, oh, momentum-killing kickoffs returned to the 42-yard line.

In summary, special teams: that annoying little part of football that always ends up being a big deal. I do not trust you, special teams, but when you give me memories like this (about the 36 second mark), I must respect your importance.

Overview

Looking back, I don’t think I appreciated that playoff game enough. I mean, it was a playoff game and I was watching alone. I should’ve been watching somewhere, with someone, anyone. What the hell was I thinking? I’m thinking maybe I was nervous; or maybe I wasn’t nervous enough; maybe I substituted hopefulness for overconfidence. Whatever the case, I took it for granted. I wasn’t ready.

And with the team that’s being built here, nothing should be taken for granted; every bit of the quest should be enjoyed. The hype doesn’t mean a thing. All one can do is hope that a team like this catches enough breaks, avoids costly injuries, and plays as close as they can to their fullest potential.

Just the thought of everything working out shouldn’t be taken for granted. The Packers are not perfect, but they have something here, something that makes everything about this season exciting. I’m ready to see where they take us.

Only one thing’s for certain: I won’t be drinking Leinenkugel’s Original this time around. That stuff is gross.

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- Dom Capers photo courtesy of http://www.steelersuk.com/
- Finley photo courtesy of AP Photo/Paul Connors.

Twitter: twitter.com/griffingotta Email: griffingotta@gmail.com

Clearly, Kurt sipped the fountain of youth before pretty much every game this season, then dumped the entire thing down his throat for last Sunday’s game against the Packers.

In the wild shootout, which ended up being the highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history, Warner went 29 for 33 with 379 passing yards and five touchdowns.

He had more touchdown passes than incompletions.

Can he keep up the sparkling effort in what’s sure to be another shootout against the Saints?

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans

• Cardinals-Saints Date: Saturday, January 16th
• Cardinals-Saints Kickoff Time: 4:30 ET
• Cardinals-Saints TV Network: FOX
• Cardinals-Saints Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa
• Cardinals-Saints Point Spread: Saints -7
• Cardinals-Saints Over-Under Odds: 57
• Cardinals-Saints Spread Pick by Jerod: Cardinals +7

Note: The information above is taken from the NFL Playoffs Divisional round TV schedule, spreads, and picks post from earlier this week. Keep in mind that spread information is from early in the week. For updated spreads and other up-to-the-minute playoff handicapping info, here are some links for your convenience:

• DocSports: NFL Odds | NFL Picks
• DocSports: NFL Playoff Predictions | NFL Playoff Tree | NFL Playoff Brackets | NFL Playoff Schedule

Cardinals-Saints Analysis

Breaking down the Cardinals offense versus the Saints’ defense, it’s tough to imagine New Orleans stopping Warner. He did his damage last Sunday using Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, and Steve Breaston…without Anquan Boldin. What happens if Boldin is ready for Saturday? How much more dangerous can Arizona’s passing attack get?

The Saints have home-field advantage, a loud building, and a real gamebreaker on defense in Darren Sharper. But, looking closer, they’re primed to allow plenty of points.

Everyone talked up the Saints’ ability to force turnovers this year – they had 26 interceptions, but the Packers led the NFL with 30 picks and had the NFC’s No. 1 defense entering the Wildcard game. Yet Warner shredded the Green Bay secondary with ease.

The Saints allowed 235.6 passing yards per game; that was the 26^th-best mark in the league, easily the worst of any 2009 playoff team. Even if Sedrick Ellis gets hot and neutralizes Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the running game, Warner will inflict serious damage.

Now, that’s not to say Drew Brees won’t do exactly the same.

Let’s remember that Arizona allowed 45 points and let Aaron Rodgers throw for a Packer playoff-record 422 yards. This weekend, before the reeling secondary can recover, it faces the league’s No. 1 offense on the road. It’s not that the Cards lack talent; who wouldn’t want Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Adrian Wilson? It’s that they’re still a young group that lacks intelligence, takes chances at the wrong times, and bites on fakes.

New Orleans has so many tricks up its sleeve and so many talented targets for Brees that we’re sure to see the Saints score a ton. The main beneficiary should be Robert Meachem, who regularly gets open deep.

So, what have we learned? We know both these teams score a ton and don’t defend the pass well.

As for picking a winner, I’d lean toward the home team. The Saints have the boisterous crowd on their side and superior running game – the No. 6 unit in the NFL. Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell will move the chains if the Saints get a lead late.

From a wagering perspective, you’re probably safe betting over the total (most recently set at 57 points).  But you aren’t too safe picking New Orleans to cover the seven-point spread. I expect a Saints win but a close Saints win, since New Orleans will struggle to stop Warner.

Cardinals-Saints Prediction (straight-up): Saints

Cardinals-Saints Pick: Cardinals +7

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* – Kurt & Brenda Warner photo credit: Things Fat People Hate

* – Drew Brees chair photo credit: BostonHerald.com

* – Drew Brees celebrating: Taking it to the House

Midwest Sports Fans (MSF) Disclosure of Material Connection: MSF was compensated for using DocSports’ links as the references for our Saints-Cardinals  odds information. With that said, MSF only links to and endorses sites and services that we use ourselves. We are disclosing this in accordance with the Federal Trade Commission’s 16 CFR, Part 255: “Guides Concerning the Use of Endorsements and Testimonials in Advertising.”

At the start of 2009, however, few pundits predicted that fate.

The Packers, their young and improving offense and still questionable defense were supposed to be at least a year or two away from contention. Yet, here they are at the end of the season playing as well as anyone in the league.

And as the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals – the Packers’ first round opponent on Sunday – can testify, getting hot at the right time is what playoff success is all about.

Today we examine this weekend’s Packers-Cardinals matchup in the Wild Card round of the NFC Playoffs.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

• Packers-Cardinals Date: Sunday, January 10th
• Packers-Cardinals Kickoff Time: 4:40 ET
• Packers-Cardinals TV Network: FOX
• Packers-Cardinals Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Packers-Cardinals Point Spread: Packers -1 (as of 1/8)
• Packers-Cardinals Over-Under Odds: 47
• Packers-Cardinals Spread Pick by Jerod: Packers -1
• Click here for great deals on Packers-Cardinals Tickets

Note: The information above is taken from the NFL Playoffs Wild Card round TV schedule, spreads, and picks post from earlier this week. Keep in mind that spread information is from early in the week. For updated spreads and other up-to-the-minute playoff handicapping info, here are some links for your convenience:

• DocSports: NFL Odds | NFL Picks
• DocSports: NFL Playoff Predictions | NFL Playoff Tree | NFL Playoff Brackets | NFL Playoff Schedule

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Packers-Cardinals Analysis

Weren’t the Packers supposed to wait their turn this season?

Everyone claimed it was Chicago’s year, that the Bears were a veteran team built to “win now” and would battle the Vikings tooth-and-nail for NFC supremacy. So much for that. The Packers, who opened 2009 as football’s youngest team, are way ahead of schedule.

Wasn’t the defense supposed to struggle in its first season under a 3-4 scheme?

Few defenses adjust to the 3-4 as quickly as the Packers did this year. Under Dom Capers’ defensive regime and largely boosted by draftees Clay Matthews ad B.J. Raji, the Packers finished with the NFL’s No. 2 overall defense. Defensive Player of the Year hopeful Charles Woodson led a smothering pass “D” and will be counted upon this Sunday to shut down Larry Fitzgerald. Amazingly, after it was arguably their biggest weakness last season, the Packers also now have the league’s top run defense.

Wasn’t Green Bay’s offensive line supposed to be its downfall?

Early in the season, it looked that way. Aaron Rodgers took hit after hit and was sacked an alarming 37 times in his first eight games. Then, something clicked. The line came together and allowed only 13 sacks in the final eight games. As a result, Rodgers sparkled; he became the first man in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards in his first two seasons as a starter. His passer rating of 103.3 was higher than Brett Favre’s best in 16 seasons with the Packers.

It didn’t look that way to start the season, but this Packer team seems built to beat Arizona.

The Cards’ have good playmakers on defense like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie but Rodgers doesn’t make many mistakes and should carve up Arizona’s 23^rd-ranked pass “D.” As much as Beanie Wells could be Arizona’s back of the future, the Cardinals still had the 28^th-best rushing offense in the league. That doesn’t bode well against the No. 1 run defense.

It’s inevitable that the Pack will put points on the board this week, so the onus is on the ageless Kurt Warner to respond. Even with Woodson all over Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin out, Warner will probably find a way; the Cards are 5-1 without Boldin over the last two seasons. But he’ll probably take his share of licks, too; he holds onto the ball forever and the Packer pass-rush is greatly improved.

Since many of these Packers haven’t played playoff football before – namely, Aaron Rodgers – an implosion could happen. On paper, though, Green Bay tops Arizona in virtually every category. They should win and it could be a second-straight beatdown.

Packers-Cardinals Spread Pick: Packers -1

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* – Charles Woodson photo credit: Otto Gruele Jr./Getty Images via SI.com

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Monday Night Football Preview

Arizona Cardinals (8-4) at San Francisco 49ers (5-7)

• Cardinals-49ers Date: Monday, December 13
• Cardinals-49ers Kickoff Time: 8:30
• Cardinals-49ers TV Network: ESPN
• Cardinals-49ers Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Cardinals-49ers Point Spread: Cardinals -3
• Cardinals-49ers Over-Under Odds: 44.5
• Cardinals-49ers Spread Pick by Jerod (from Monday): Tough game to predict. The 49ers beat Arizona in Arizona earlier this year and now get them at home. The Cardinals have always been a poor road team, but have somehow reversed that this year to become a very good team away from home. Oh, and Arizona absolutely destroyed the Vikings in Week 13. I’m going with Arizona because they are just so good through the air and the 49ers are not great at defending the pass. Cardinals-49ers free pick: Cardinals -3

Cardinals-49ers Analysis

In the whimsical world of media overreaction, the Arizona Cardinals are the NFL’s flavor of the week. Aside from the Colts and Saints, no team is receiving more love than Arizona right now, after the Cards’ blasting of the erstwhile one loss Vikings last Sunday night on national TV.

Arizona (8-4) has apparently replaced Minnesota in NFL hierarchy and certainly left the three loss Bengals, Chargers and any four loss team in the dust — according to “those who know.”

Truthfully, Arizona is a good team. They are not as bad as they were early when Indy blasted them in Phoenix and especially when San Francisco beat them up in week one. Their passing game is much more in sync now no doubt, but are the ‘Birds as good as advertised here in mid-December? Are they super bowl or NFC title game bound as I now hear daily? Who knows? I won’t venture a guess, because like the media, I’d rather not look silly a few weeks (or less) from now.

The San Francisco 49ers, who’ve ridden a roller coaster 2009 season under fiery coach Mike Singletary, pretty much need to win out to have a shot at a playoff berth. Sweeping the Cards, who they trail by three with four to play in the NFC West, would be a good start, especially since ’Frisco closes with the Lions and Rams. On the other hand, a loss Monday gives Arizona their first back-to-back division titles in over 30 years, in turn sending SF to the golf course on January 4.

The Niners have been a good home team this year (4-2), but Arizona, in a rarity for them and most warm weather teams, has won an impressive five of six away from University of Phoenix Stadium this season, with their lone road loss coming on the final play in Nashville a fortnight ago. (Ken Whisenhunt’s crew won five in a row away from home start the campaign). San Fran has won their past two home games, but has also dropped six of eight overall after a 3-1 start.

Alex Smith, who started the season on the bench before being named starter in late October, completed 27 of 45 throws for a career-best 310 yards with two touchdowns in week 13′s three point loss to Seattle .

The Number One overall pick in the 2005 draft is shining in the team’s new spread offense, throwing for seven touchdowns and one interception in his last three games.  Naturally, with the new air success, the 49ers have struggled with their running game.

Frank Gore has run for just 117 yards (no touchdowns) in his last three games after rushing for nearly 300 and three scores in his previous three games. The Cardinals limited Gore to 30 yards in that season-opener three months ago. And Arizona’s defense is coming off a game where they sacked Brett Favre three times, given them 35 on the season (third in the NFC). Favre, who had only throw three interceptions in his first 11 games in 2009, was picked off twice. Arizona also held Adrian Peterson to a season-low 19 yards in their impressive victory.

If Arizona contains the usually-reliable Gore and the temperamental Vernon Davis, who has been stellar of late, the Forty-Niners may run out of offensive options in a much-maligned 28th ranked unit.

To add to the troubles for SF, Kurt Warner is on one of the best rolls of his career, amassing 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,100 years, with no interceptions his past 14 quarters. That’s good enough for a passer rating of 133.2 during that stretch.

His offensive line, coached by legendary Russ Grimm, has been part of the reason Warner, a possible hall of famer, is on such a historic run the past few games.

As of late this past week, both teams had minimal injury concerns.

Cardinals-49ers Prediction

Arizona, who’s getting contributions everywhere of late, has won six of the last nine in the series, and I don’t see much changing Monday night. Though I don’t think it’ll be a blowout, as these games rarely are, take the hot team and lay the points.

MNF Cardinals-49ers spread pick: Cardinals -3

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* – Mike Singletary photo credit: YouBeQB

After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

In fact, that last factor was always the tie-breaker as I went through my rankings: who would I rather have starting for my team, with everything else being equal, if my life depending on winning a football game?

I separated the players into distinct tiers as well so you can see where I think dropoffs exist.

The real fun and the main idea of this post is to generate discussion, criticism, and debate in the comment section below. These rankings are just my opinion and I’d love to hear yours.

Let’s do some ranking.

Tier 1: The First Ballot HOF Franchise Anchor Super QBs

1 – Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

1a – Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Do I really need to list out their accomplishments or explain why they are the only two men in this tier? Good, I didn’t think so.

Trying to decide between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would be like trying to choose between a Heidi Klum or a Minka Kelly screensaver for your computer. You’re going to be happy either way, and while both have their staunch supporters, each side can recognize the greatness of the other.

That Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the two best QBs of the this decade is inarguable.

Here is why I put Peyton Manning ever so slightly ahead of Tom Brady: I don’t think that Peyton’s greatness will go down in history as being linked with any particular coach as Brady’s will be linked with Bill Belichick. Thus, to me, the statement “all else being equal” tips the scales to Manning because we’ve never seen Brady without Belichick nor have we seen Manning with Belichick.

Can you imagine?

Yes, Peyton had some great years with Tony Dungy, but he was drafted by Jim Mora and is continuing his excellence with Jim Caldwell as he moves into the third stage of his career. What both QBs have done with so many transient parts around them has been impressive, but Peyton has dealt with it atop his team’s coaching staff as well.

There really is no wrong answer here, but as we get ready for Colts-Patriots this weekend, I’d love to get a sense of where the majority opinion stands on this issue. Because we are Midwest Sports Fans, I assume that Peyton will win this, but let’s find out anyway.

Tier 2: Impeccable Franchise Anchor QBs

3 – Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

You know that I’m not the biggest Roethlisberger fan, and that I consider him to be something of a tool, but even the biggest Browns fan or Big Ben hater has to give Roethlisberger his due credit now. The guy has won two Super Bowls, he consistently comes up big in important spots, and is reaching a Brady/Manning-like level of being a guy that 11-, 12-win teams are built around on a year-in, year-out basis.

He’s not the prettiest, the most text book, or the most statistically impressive. But if he’s on your sideline, everyone else will believe victory is possible regardless of circumstance. That’s a powerful, proven presence that cannot ignored.

4 – Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

This choice could cause some consternation because Brees has not yet won a Super Bowl, nor played in one, yet there are Super Bowl QBs below him.

Here is how I look at that: Do you think that the Giants would not have won the Super Bowl in 2007 with Brees as their QB? Do you think Philly and their pass-happy offense would have been worse off over the years with Brees instead of McNabb? I don’t.

I just think Brees has had to wait a little longer for his opportunity, which appears as if it might be coming this season. He has proven time and again that he is a true franchise QB, an impeccable leader, and a guy who can rally a team (heck, even a city) when the chips are down.

I still rue the day that the Dolphins passed on him in the draft and when they passed on him after he left San Diego. Give this guy Tom Brady’s career and he just might have three Super Bowls too.

Tier 3: Proven Franchise QBs

A quick note about this section. Each QB in Tier 3 has the potential to be a Tier 2 QB, but for one reason or another has question marks that prevent even their most ardent fans from having 100% confidence in them. Certainly though, these are all guys that you’d be proud and excited about having as the QB of your team right now. At least I would.

5 – Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings

There is obviously a pretty big caveat with this one: he’s got to be healthy. But Brett Favre, right now, is playing the quarterback position as well as anyone in the league. He has 16 TDs with only three INTs against the backdrop of everything else that he has done in his career. Once again, Favre is authoring an amazing story.

Now, it remains to be seen whether Favre can keep it going for 16+ games. He wore down as last season went along, and could very well do the same thing this year. But in the right situation — and let’s be honest, Minnesota is the perfect situation for him right now — Favre is a legit superstar QB even at 40.

Look down the list and tell me you’d feel more comfortable with those other guys leading your team right now than Favre. Yes, they may be less annoying, less wishy-washy, and less self-centered than Favre is…but I just cannot justify putting anyone else above him.

6 – Eli Manning, New York Giants

6a – Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles

One thing separates Eli from Donovan McNabb in my mind: he has a Super Bowl title.

That’s it.

Eli has not reached the same statistical benchmarks as McNabb, he does not have as many playoff wins, and he is not as exciting a player. But bring Eli in your locker room and everyone immediately believes a Super Bowl is possible because he’s done it.

I do think, however, that even the strongest Eli supporter still has at least some trepidation regarding Eli’s ability to play at an elite level year-in, year-out. Did he catch lightning in a bottle in 2007? Can he win regardless of his supporting cast? We’re going to find out, as Eli’s career is far from a finished product.

As for McNabb, no matter his accomplishments — and make no mistake, five NFC Title games and a Super Bowl appearance is a terrific resume that is vastly underrated — we cannot say that a locker room full of players would immediately believe they are Super Bowl bound because McNabb walks through the door. It’s just the nature of the beast, and will be that way until he closes the deal in February.

8 – Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals

Like Favre, Warner’s age and proximity to retirement make him hard to place, yet his resume and continued excellence dictate that he has to be ranked pretty high on the list.

Warner proved last year that he is still an elite QB in leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. He didn’t win it, but he certainly played well enough to do so. His defense just couldn’t stop Ben Roethlisberger in the final minutes.

Warner is still capable of 5-INT duds like he threw up two weeks ago, but more often than not he is going to get the ball to right player at the right time. Plus, he’s been in every situation you can possible imagine and immediately commands the respect of any locker room he walks into.

If it weren’t for his age, I’d put him above Eli and Donovan, but they have more years ahead of them to try to match Warner’s accomplishments, plus have a less checkered history of injury.

Tier 4: Franchise QBs with Skins on the Wall

And by skins on the wall I am talking of course about playoff berths.

Fans of the teams these guys play for expect each to move into Tier 2 or Tier 3 by the time their career is over, and they’ve already come close to making the leap. All have the talent to do so, but it remains to be seen if they can take that next step.

For each one of these guys, moving into the next tier will be a function of one thing and one thing only: more playoff success.

9 – Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

I am a huge fan of this guy and came close to putting him in Tier 3. Yes, he makes funny faces and his whole nice-Christian- guy/supreme-trash-talker persona seems a bit incongruous, but this guy wins, and wins often, and is superb in clutch situations when his team counts on him.

Plus, go down the list below him and tell me (other than the aging and oft-injured Matt Hasselbeck) who has proven himself more than Rivers. He’s been in the playoffs every year he’s been a starter, made it to an AFC Championship game, and is another guy that commands the attention and respect of his teammates because they believe he will lead them to victory.

You can take any guy lower than Rivers on this list and I’ll play you head-to-head, with similar supporting casts, and I wouldn’t doubt victory for a second.

10 – Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

There was a time not long ago when Carson Palmer was on the verge of entering the upper-upper echelon of QBs in the NFL. When he led a young, talented Cincinnati team to the playoffs in 2005, everyone thought it was the beginning of a long run of playoff berths for Palmer and the Bengals.

But then the weight of the Bengals’ cursed franchise (or, namely, Kimo Von Oelhoffen) came down on Palmer’s knee. His injury shattered the team’s hopes in 2005 and began a spiral that saw the Bengals plummet to their usual lowly depths and saw Palmer fall off the elite QB radar screen.

Let’s face it, to truly be an elite franchise QB you have to be playing in January and February. Palmer hasn’t been the last few years, but appears poised to do so this year. He’s always had the Aikman-like talent and look about him, but he has been surrounded by chaos. Now he appears to finally have a focused, selfless, defensively competent team around him that is worthy of his talents.

11 – Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Clearly numbers 10 and 11 on this list don’t have many playoff skins on the wall, but they have at least led their teams to the playoffs. Romo has had an ignominious experience in the playoffs, and has become a punchline for the tabloid headlines his personal life has generated, and he is referred to as Mr. November, but there are signs that he finally is starting to harness his potential and “get it.”

We won’t know for sure until December rolls around, at which time Romo must maintain the high level of play he’s had for the past month, but he appears to be maturing on and off the field and finally is the guy in Dallas. This is his team and the decision to jettison Terrell Owens is looking better and better by the week.

12 – Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Ryan has not even completed his second season in the NFL, but he makes this tier for good reasons. He clearly has the talent, he’s already taken more playoff snaps than Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, and Aaron Rodgers combined, and he has the kind makeup and countenance that suggest he can someday become a Tier 2 or even Tier 1 QB.

Yes, he’s struggled a bit here lately in throwing too many interceptions, but if the playoffs started today he would be there once again. That’s the mark of a franchise QB and Ryan most certainly is that. He just needs more experience, but I don’t doubt that he will make a steady climb up this list in the years to come.

13 – Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

This is a tough one because Hasselbeck is the one guy in this tier who has actually played in a Super Bowl. He’s also played in more playoff games than Palmer, Romo, and Ryan combined. But when I check my gut feeling, I’d rather have all four of the guys above him with all else being equal.

Hasselbeck has been a very good QB for many years. I also think that he has benefitted from being in a very poor division that has provided him with an easier annual path to playoffs than the guys above him on this list. But the sad truth for Hasselbeck is that he’s now on the downside of his career and will probably be a constant injury risk as he gets older, considering he is already dealing with back problems.

Hasselbeck has had a great career and I don’t want to minimize it by placing him at the bottom of this tier, but power rankings are equal parts looking forward and looking back. The looking forward part just isn’t as rosy of a picture for Hasselbeck anymore.

14 – Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco appears to have a lot of the same qualities as Matt Ryan, and also took his team to the playoffs in his first season. In fact, Flacco even won two playoff games and almost made the Super Bowl as a rookie. So why isn’t he higher on list?

I don’t think that Flacco was asked to do as much as Ryan. Yes, his poise and game management ability were impressive for a rookie, and that’s why he makes this tier in the first place, but I still feel like he has the most to prove of anyone in Tier 4.

Flacco is the one guy in the top 15 of these Power Rankings that has not yet dealt with the pressure of being the focal point of his team. He is becoming the Ravens’ focal point more and more, but Ray Lewis is still the alpha dog in Baltimore. I think Flacco will need to emerge from Ray’s shadow, as he gains more experience and wins, to move up the list.

Tier 5: Talented but Skinless Franchise QBs

The quarterbacks in this tier all have talent and the keys to a franchise, but have yet to take a snap in the playoffs. As with the Tier 4 QBs, fans of the teams these guys lead ultimately expect them to journey up this list, but they have to make the playoffs and win there first.

15 – Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

He is the most talented of the guys in this tier, but has a severe fatal flaw to me: his attitude and body language. This opinion comes from an outsider’s perspective, but I just don’t ever recall seeing a winning QB with the kind of deflated body language and pouty faces that we see from Cutler. I can’t imagine that inspires a lot of confidence, belief, and trust with his teammates.

Yes, he has a cannon. And yes, he has great competitiveness and confidence. But he also throws too many INTs and the Broncos went from a yearly playoff team to a home-in-January team when he took over.

There are just too many questions about Cutler for him to be any higher than this.

16 – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers does some good things and has the potential to be a very good QB for a long time. But like Cutler, Rodgers has a fatal flaw that kills his team time and again. In Rodgers’ case it is his propensity to take sacks. He simply has to learn to protect down and distance better or his teams will always be facing an uphill battle.

Rodgers’ other deficiency is that he has not yet shown the ability be a great 4th quarter QB. Until he does, he will never be able to be considered among the elites, no matter what his cumulative stats are at the end of the season.

17 – Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Another really talented player who racks up great stats, but who is defined by his fatal flaw: he can’t stay healthy. He has played in every game this season, which is a major reason why the Texans have a winning record, but he can only be ranked so high until he plays a full 16-game schedule and we get to see him in the playoffs.

Tier 6 – The Grizzled but Inconsistent Veterans

18 – Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos

I don’t think Orton was ever quite as bad as he was made out to be during his Chicago tenure, but he certainly is not as good as people are making him out to be through eight games in Denver. And after being exposed a bit the last two weeks, the Orton hype will probably start dying down. He is what he is: a solid but unspectacular QB who protects the ball relatively well but needs great skill players and a great defense to win.

19 – Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers

I’ve always been a Delhomme fan and it was hard to have to leave him out of Tier 4. This is a guy who came within seconds of winning a Super Bowl, a guy who has been to the playoffs a good amount, and a guy who has engineered plenty of 4th quarter comebacks.

But the sad truth is that Delhomme’s solid career is ending with a whimper as he either seems to throw 4-5 INTs in a game or play it conservatively and get only 100-150 yards. Delhomme is no longer the future in Carolina and may not even be the present as soon as next season.

But I’ll tell you this, for what it’s worth: if I needed to win one game, I’d take him over any of the guys ranked lower on this list. He’s got too many skins on the wall not to at least give him that level of respect.

20 – Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs

He burst onto the scene last year as Tom Brady’s replacement but it is hard to know just how much stock to put into his 2008 numbers. A lot of QBs would have succeeded playing with Randy Moss and Wes Welker with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels calling the shots. Cassel is getting his chance now to lead a franchise and is having an okay season below-the-radar in Kansas City. But like any other purported franchise QB, he’s got to have success in the playoffs to move up the list.

21 – David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Garrard appeared to be an up-and-comer as recently as 2007. He threw 18 TDs, on 3 INTs, and got a nice new contract from the Jags. But his entire team struggled last year amidst devastating losses on the offensive line. This year, Garrard is playing similarly to last year, which means he is just a pedestrian, average quarterback.

Because of his experience, I like him more than any of the guys lower on this list, but he is not quite what the Jags were hoping for when they signed him to the extension. By all accounts he is a great guy, he is just not a great QB.

22 – Vince Young, Tennessee Titians

Yes, Vince is still a young player, but I think we can safely consider him “grizzled” at this point. He’s won Rookie of the Year, been booed and benched, and now regained his starting job and won two straight starts. He still has a long way to go to become a consistent QB, but the potential is still there.

Of all the guys in this tier, Young is the guy I’d have the least confidence in right now, but he’s also the only guy I could see moving up two or three tiers as his career progresses.

And simply because they have to be ranked somewhere and I don’t want to think of another Tier name…

23 – Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins

It would have been great to see how Campbell’s career would have gone had he been able to stay in one offensive system from year-to-year. With all of the turmoil in Washington, Campbell has never really gotten a fair shot. His inconsistent career is the appropriate manifestation of the constant flux in Washington.

24 – Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams

We can all agree that this guy is toast right?

Tier 7 – The Unknown Youngsters

We don’t really know anything about Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, Matthew Stafford, or Josh Freeman, except that none of them are as good as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. I will say that I am not a huge fan of this year’s rookie QBs and would take Chad Henne over any of them. Only time will tell of course, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

Tier 8 – JaMarcus and the Rest

JaMarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, Matt Leinart…all of these guys have been given varying amounts of opportunity and none have seized the opportunity to start (or in the case of Anderson and Russell, to start with any level of effectiveness). I have better things to do than parse through the wreckage at the bottom of this list.

Suffice it to say, these guys all suck until they prove otherwise.

So there you have it. I now step aside and leave the comment section to you. Where do you agree/disagree? Is anyone placed in the wrong tier? Your feedback and opinions are much anticipated and appreciated.

**********

* – Philip Rivers screaming photo credit: Hugging Harold Reynolds

* – Jay Cutler photo credit: Walking the Sidelines

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.

8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

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Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Warner’s career as a starter began in 1999, when he quarterbacked “The Greatest Show on Turf” in St. Louis to the Super Bowl crown. Along the way that season he racked up 4,353 yards, 41 TDs, and both an NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP trophy. In many ways, considering the complete obscurity from which Warner came, it is one of the great single-season performances by an individual in not just NFL history, but in sports history.

In 2001, Warner brought the Rams to another Super Bowl (which they lost to New England) and won his second regular season MVP Award. He was not as dominant, throwing “only” 36 TDs against 22 INTs, but he set a personal record with 4,830 passing yards and still finished with a passer rating over 100 (101.4).

The next five years, however, were lost years for Warner. He battled injuries and ineffectiveness as he bounced from St. Louis to an infamously bad one year in New York and then to Arizona in 2005. While he was never truly terrible (Warner has never had a passer rating below 85.8 in any season in which he has started 10 or more games), Warner fell sharply off the radar screen from his days as the MVP in St. Louis.

This season, however, Kurt Warner has rocketed back to prominence. His regular season numbers were outstanding: 4,583 yards, a completion percentage of 67.1%, 30 TDs, and a passer rating of 96.9. And don’t give me the whole “well he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin” argument. Joe Montana had Jerry Rice, Roger Craig, and John Taylor, plus Bill Walsh crafting the offense; and I don’t hear that argument when people extol the greatness of Montana.

Warner’s true greatness, however, can best be viewed through his performance in the 10 biggest games in which he has played: the playoffs. Heading into Super Bowl 43, Warner has a career playoff passer rating of 97.3. This is good for second all-time as the immortal Bart Starr has a rating of 104.8. Joe Montana is third with a rating of 95.6. Additionally, Warner has a 9-1 record as a QB in the playoffs, with his only loss thus far coming to the Patriots in Super Bowl 36. Of all quarterbacks with 10 or more playoff starts, Warner’s winning percentage is the highest.

Sunday night, Kurt Warner can further bolster his Hall of Fame resume. Not only does Warner have a chance to join Joe Montana, Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, and Tom Brady as the only two-time Super Bowl MVPs – Montana actually won it three times – but there is a significant Super Bowl record within Warner’s reach:

Kurt Warner needs 364 passing yards to break Joe Montana’s record of 1,142 career passing yards in the Super Bowl, which Montana accumulated in four games. Incidentally, 364 yards would be Kurt Warner’s lowest total in a Super Bowl as he threw for 414 and 365 yards in his previous Super Bowl appearances (good for 1st and 2nd on the single-game Super Bowl record list).

So let’s be hypothetical for a moment, and let’s say the Cardinals and Kurt Warner overcome the odds (literally, as Pittsburgh is a 7-point favorite) to win the Super Bowl and Warner is named MVP. This would be Kurt Warner’s Hall of Fame resume:

• 10-1 record in the postseason (best playoff winning percentage ever)
• 2-time NFL MVP
• 2-time Super Bowl MVP
• Only QB to be named Super Bowl MVP for two different teams
• Second-highest career completion percentage
• Highest career average passing yards per game
• Second-highest career playoff passer rating
• Most career yards in Super Bowl (you have to assume he’ll be throwing for a lot of yards if the Cardinals are to win)
• Intangible: the greatest rags-to-riches story in NFL history

Do the cumulative numbers stack up against the greatest QBs in NFL history? No, and they never will. Kurt Warner is already 37 years old and has maybe a couple more seasons left in him. He can move up the charts for wins, passing yards, TDs, etc., but his career numbers will never stack up against the greats.

What Warner will possess, if the Cardinals win and he plays great, is one of the greatest playoff and Super Bowl resumes of any player in NFL history. With as much emphasis as is placed on getting a Super Bowl ring and coming up big in clutch spots, Warner’s playoff resume will give him a tremendous boost when his name is called for HOF voting. Additionally, Warner will have done what no one thought possible: deliver a Super Bowl championship to the long-suffering Cardinals franchise.

If the Cardinals lose, even if Warner plays amazing, his candidacy will take a huge hit. Despite the two NFL MVP awards, Warner simply does not have a substantial enough regular season career to merit Hall consideration. He needs the incredible quality of his playoff resume to compensate for the fact that he has really only had 3 spectacular regular seasons. A 1-2 Super Bowl record and only one Super Bowl MVP award is a significant step back from a 2-1 Super Bowl record and two Super Bowl MVP awards. The rarified air that another Super Bowl win would place him in immediately vaults him into serious Hall of Fame consideration.

Kurt Warner would go into the Hall of Fame as one of the best playoff QBs of all-time – a player who was at his best on the grandest stage when his team needed him the most. His Hall of Fame candidacy will be built upon this clutch dominance. To merit legitimate Hall of Fame consideration, Kurt Warner needs to lead the Arizona Cardinals to a Super Bowl title on Sunday.

If he does, at least in my book, Kurt Warner will make himself a Hall of Famer.

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And, for the record, Jason Whitlock has a post today covering the same subject. He thinks even the question is “ridiculous”. If Namath is in the HOF, says Whitlock, then Warner has to be. And with a win Sunday, Whitlock places Warner among the top 10 QBs of all-time.

Earlier today, I updated you on the current injury status of Pittsburgh WR and Super Bowl 40 MVP Hines Ward. His sprained knee is hurting, and he won’t be 100%, but he will play. And seriously, it’s Hines Ward. Would you expect any different? JJ Arrington is a different story for Arizona, but he is obviously far less critical to his team’s success than Hines Ward.

If you want need a refresher of any of the particulars for this Sunday’s game (time, date, location, halftime entertainment, etc) click on over to the Super Bowl 43 Quick Preview that we did last week. It should be able to answer all of your questions.

As far as the point spreads go, here are the latest lines, courtesy of our friends at DocSports:

• Sportsbook.com Point Spread: Steelers -6.5
• Bodog Point Spread: Steelers -7
• BookMaker Point Spread: Steelers -6.5
• SuperBook Point Spread: Steelers -7

And the Over-Under odds for the Steelers-Cardinals game:

• Sportsbook.com Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 46.5
• Bodog Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 47
• BookMaker Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 46.5
• SuperBook Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 46.5

So, as they have been all week, the Steelers sit at right around a one touchdown favorite with an over-under average just under 47 points. I don’t know whether or not the Steelers will cover — I will leave that up to spread experts like Fraschetti to decide, as he did in his Cardinals-Steelers prediction post — but I do think that the Steelers will win Super Bowl 43, and that the two teams will go above the over.

This, of course, means that all Browns fans will have to once again live in a world in which the Steelers are the Super Bowl champs for an entire year. I know…the thought of it makes me nauseous too.

But as Rasheed Wallace once said, “it is what it is, and it do what it do.” (Side note: who knew that Rasheed Wallace could be so existentially brilliant?)

Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl 43 Prediction

Before I get into the three reasons why I think the Pittsburgh Steelers will in Super Bowl 43, let’s discuss three reasons why the Cardinals could win the game.

1 – As Fraschetti pointed out in his first Super Bowl 43 preview article, the achilles heel of the Steelers’ defense throughout the years has been vulnerability through the air. The Steelers are monsters up front, and make it difficult for any team to run the ball, but they have been susceptible to big pass plays. This year, the Steelers ranked #1 across the board in defense, so I’m not sure this reason really holds much water (hence why I think the Steelers will win), but if the Cardinals are going to outscore the Steelers, they will have to do it by throwing the ball.

2 – Piggy-backing off of #1, the Cardinals have an absolutely outstanding passing game. If the Cardinals were a run-first team, I would say they have no chance. But with Kurt Warner and his deadly trio of Larry Fitzgerald, a healthier and probably extremely motivated Anquan Boldin, and the underrated Steve Breaston, the Cardinals will be able to move the ball through the air. In fact, I think the Cardinals will make this a higher scoring game than people think and get the final score above the Over-Under. And Kurt Warner proved in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game that he still has some of the magic that made him a Super Bowl MVP once before.

3 – The Cardinals defense has been playing better. I don’t buy into some of the over-hyping of the Cardinals defense that I’ve read this week by some purported “experts”, but this is a defense that has proven itself to be opportunistic. Super Bowls can often turn on defensive serendipity — being in the right place at the right time for turnovers. Just ask the Steelers, who suffered their only Super Bowl loss because Larry Brown just happened to be standing right in the path of two Neil O’Donnell misfires. If the Cardinals are going to win, the defense will have to come up with a couple of key turnovers.

However, I don’t see this happening enough to get the Cardinals over the hump, which leads me to the three main reasons why I think the Steelers will be victorious in Super Bowl 43.

1 – Ben Roethlisberger will have a big game and be named Super Bowl 43 MVP. Big Ben was just an inexperienced youngster in Super Bowl 40. He was managing games for a strong running team with a great defense and he played a pretty poor game individually against the Seahawks. He is older, better, and now the unquestioned offensive leader and lynchpin of this year’s Steelers. He has Santonio Holmes on one side and Old Reliable Hines Ward on the other, plus a healthy Willie Parker behind him. Roethlisberger will have two or three plays that he will try to force — he always does — and the Cardinals have to turn these plays into turnovers to have a chance.

I don’t see it happening. I think Ben Roethlisberger is extra, extra motivated to have a big game Sunday to erase the memories of his poor performance in Super Bowl 40 (no matter what he might say about not thinking about that game or it being in the past). He’s an athlete and he’s human. He’s thinking about it, and very much wants to compensate for it with a signature Super Bowl win. His legacy and the beginnings of his potential Hall of Fame candidacy — yeah, I said it — are on the line Sunday. He has burned the Browns too often for me to not have confidence that he’ll have a big game.

(For the record, I can’t believe I’ve somehow turned into a huge Ben Roethlisberger cheerleader, especially after writing this horrific post before the season started, but such is life when your team starts Ken Dorsey for half a season.)

2 – Troy Polamalu and James Harrison are two of the 5 best defensive players the Cardinals have faced all season. And this is an unscientific statement; I didn’t go down the Cardinals’ schedule this year. Polamalu and Harrison may very well be the two best defenders they have faced, bar none. Kurt Warner has proven that he is susceptible to fumbles when hit in the pocket — enter James Harrison and the zone-blitzing Steelers. Warner has also proven that he will force throws, especially to Larry Fitzgerald, when the pocket collapses — enter the eye-reader Troy Polamalu.

I have a feeling that both of these guys will be involved in crucial, game-changing turnovers that will prevent the Cardinals from scoring enough points to win.

3 – Mike Tomlin. He’s a Steeler, but I love this guy. In fact, I have absolutely no idea how Eric frickin’ Mangini is every going to beat Tomlin. He is tough, he is old school, and he is absolutely the heartbeat and emotional leader of this Steelers team. I like Ken Whisenhunt and I think he is a very solid coach (better than Eric frickin’ Mangini), but Mike Tomlin just seems to have that extra gear of will and enthusiasm that trickles down to his players and gets the Steelers over the hump.

Mike Tomlin inspires a physical style of play in the Steelers that the Cardinals have not seen this year. I think the Cardinals are too skilled offensively to not score some points, but when push comes to shove — and it will — the Steelers will out-tough the Cardinals to the victory.

So sorry Browns fans, the nightmare continues. I will be rooting for the Cardinals, and hoping to be dead wrong with this prediction — I just don’t think I will be.

My official Steelers-Cardinals prediction:

• Pittsburgh Steelers 27 | Arizona Cardinals 24 (Over-Under covered)
• Super Bowl MVP: Ben Roethlisberger

What is your prediction?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Today, we are breaking down the history of the Super Bowl MVP award, as well as offering up a prediction as to who will be the MVP of Super Bowl 43.

Before we get into any predictions, let’s get a historical perspective by looking at the Super Bowl MVP winners by year, as presented to you in the table below:

* – Chuck Howley, the 1971 winner, is the only Super Bowl MVP from a losing team. The Cowboys were defeated by the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V.

* – The Cowboys are also the only team to have Co-MVPS, when Harvey Martin and Randy White split the award in 1978.

* – The Super Bowl MVP breakdown by team goes as follows:

• Dallas Cowboys – 7
• Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers – 5
• Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Oakland/LA Raiders, Washington Redskins – 3
• Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins – 2
• Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1

* – The Super Bowl MVP breakdown by position goes as follows:

• Quarterback – 22
• Running Back – 7
• Wide Receiver – 5
• Defensive End, Linebackers, Safety – 2
• Cornerback, Defensive Tackle, KR/PR – 1

Based on history, there are a few things that we can reasonably anticipate about who will be the MVP in Super Bowl 43:

• There is better than a 50% chance that the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be the QB from the winning team.
• There is a better than 95% chance that the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be a player from the winning team.
• There is better than a 75% chance that the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be a “skill position” player from the winning team.
• If the MVP does come from the defensive side of the ball, he is usually one of the stars of a historically great defense.

With that being said, if I was forced to bet on whO the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be, my money would be on Ben Roethlisberger. I think that the Steelers are going to win the game, and after Big Ben’s putrid performance in Super Bowl 40, I think he will play well Sunday. Plus, while Arizona’s defense has been solid, they are not great by any stretch of the imagination. Roethlisberger should have a chance to put up pretty good numbers.

However, I would not be surprised to see either James Harrison or Troy Polamalu come away with the trophy. Kurt Warner, while he has been spectacular for most of his career and for most of this season, can be prone to turnovers. Additionally, the Steelers do have a historically great defense. Defensive players from the ’85 Bears and ’01 Ravens won the MVP trophy, and I could see one of the Steelers players getting the award too. Polamalu and Harrison would actually be my #2 and #3 choices for Super Bowl 43 MVP.

Assuming that the Steelers win, and assuming the percentages play out, an offensive player will be the MVP. I know that Hines Ward won the trophy in Super Bowl 40, but Big Ben was just a young pup then. He is absolutely the catalyst of the Steelers offense this year. If he does not play well, Arizona has a chance to win. If he does play well, he will get the requisite numbers to win the award. I don’t see another Steelers offensive player trumping him, unless something fluky happens.

Should the Cardinals somehow with the game, either Kurt Warner or Larry Fitzgerald will come away with the award. I think Fitzgerald would have to just be phenomenal to overcome the whole “storybook” aspect of Warner taking home another MVP trophy. Fitzgerald is certainly capable, but any numbers he gets would also go to Warner. My prediction, if Arizona wins, is that Kurt Warner takes home the trophy.

So, if I was handicapping the race, my Top 5 Players Most Likely to win the Super Bowl 43 MVP list would go something like this:

1. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
2. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
3. Troy Polamalu, Steelers
4. James Harrison, Steelers
5. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

(And remember to check back this Thursday for the Week 10 Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus for that late playoff push.)

On with the show:

ON FIRE…. Any team Defense that is playing the Oakland Raiders. You can count on that Defense, unless of course it is the Cleveland Browns D, who plays to the level, or lack thereof, of their opponent. Oakland is pathetic at best, and most high school teams could play them and chalk up a “W”.

Tim Hightower, RB-Cardinals ON FIRE. He was my sleeper when I started my posts this year, and has done nothing but continue to gain confidence and carries each week. Remember, Tim Hightower is a rookie, was a 5th round draft pick, and just stole Edgerrin James’ starting job. No, better yet, he ran away with it, literally. Hightower posted a 1 Touchdown, 109-yard day on 22 carries yesterday. Remember, Edgerrin James only had 3 100+ yard games in all of 2007 and it doesn’t look like he will get any in 2008.

Kurt Warner, QB-Cardinals ON FIRE. Everyone had written this guy off years ago. The 37-year old landed in Arizona to serve in the back up role for Matt Leinart. It has not quite gone that way. Kurt Warner again beat out the former first round pick in the pre-season and has not looked back. Warner has a 104.2 QB rating with 2,431 yards and 16 touchdowns. Warner is having an MVP-like season. The Cardinals offense looks fantastic and Kurt Warner is the biggest reason why.

Chris Johnson, RB-Titans ON FIRE. As of late, I had advised everyone to start both Titans running backs, even if you have them both on your team. I still stand by that, as Tennessee stands by being committed to the run. This past week however, Chris Johnson took a step out in front of his partner in crime, LenDale White. Johnson had 24 carries to White’s 8. This 3:1 ratio of carries continued even though White broke off a 54 yard scamper. Both are quality starts, and I still recommend having both on my team, but I was asked before by one of my readers which one I would rather have, and my answer was then and still is Chris Johnson.

Bill Cowher, Former HC now Football Analyst. ON FIRE. Ok, this is a pipe dream for me, but I can hardly stomach another horribly coached Browns game where they give up an enormous lead to a pitiful offense. Romeo is a nice guy and all, but I want FIRE on the Cleveland Browns sideline. Who better to get the Browns over the landslide of losses to the Steelers then the Chin. Remember, the Chin has Cleveland ties, and I don’t remember EVER seeing Pittsburgh blow two touchdown leads. This Browns team is a playoff-caliber team, just like last year; and just like last year, the Browns will not make the playoffs again. I will make this prediction though: this team will win against the Titans if they are still undefeated when they play them. I say this just because the Browns play to the level of their opponents. Oh yeah, it would be an added bonus if Kellen Winslow didn’t play that game. Remember, Browns are 2-0 without Winslow with wins over the at-that-time undefeated Giants, and the Jaguars.

ON ICE… Any player on the following teams, including team defenses, due to their poor offensive play. The Cowboys, Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, and if no Orton, the Bears as well. You can remove a few teams from this list when Steven Jackson and Tony Romo return. The rest appear to be screwed for the duration.

I am not ready to give the Bengals any classification yet, but you have to admit that Cedric Benson looked impressive against the Jags, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting to look more like the Fitzpatrick who produced in St. Louis. With Benson’s performance on Sunday, this shows you how horrible the Bears offense will become if Rex Grossman has to continue to take snaps.

Please check back in on Thursday for this week’s fantasy football focus.

By the way, props to ESPN and it’s fantasy “guru” Eric Karabell (right) for his advice on starting Justin Fargas over Matt Ryan at the offensive flex position. It was in a live chat, so I can’t link out to it to properly take him to task. But I am definitely glad I didn’t listen.

Kurt Fraschetti

profootballinsight@live.com

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[tags]fantasy football, nfl, sports forum[/tags]