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NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

No position in the NFL is more highly scrutinized, debated, and discussed than the quarterback. It’s impossible to build a consistent winner without one (and people who follow the Cleveland Browns would tell you that it’s impossible to find one period).

After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

… Continue Reading

ESPN’s Current Top 10 Fantasy Football Players: Over or Under

Yes, not long now before every fantasy football nut is tearing apart the Internet and those extremely overpriced magazines to help them decide who to draft, when, where, why and how!  This year I am at a disadvantage, as I am passing on my knowledge to all of you.  My competition in the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football League will be able to gain insight into my strategies and opinions, which for the most part are nails, and use that against me. 

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Football Top 10 Players for 2009T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.
Matt Cassel - Fantasy Football 2009 Top 10 Players
8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profootball.insight

Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Will a Cardinals Victory in Super Bowl 43 Make Kurt Warner a Hall of Famer?

Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Famer? | Warner Playoff Record and Stats | Super Bowl Passing RecordAs we approach Super Bowl 43, and the third appearance in the Big Game for Arizona QB Kurt Warner, the Hall of Fame credentials of Warner have become a hot topic of debate.

Warner’s career as a starter began in 1999, when he quarterbacked “The Greatest Show on Turf” in St. Louis to the Super Bowl crown. Along the way that season he racked up 4,353 yards, 41 TDs, and both an NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP trophy. In many ways, considering the complete obscurity from which Warner came, it is one of the great single-season performances by an individual in not just NFL history, but in sports history.

In 2001, Warner brought the Rams to another Super Bowl (which they lost to New England) and won his second regular season MVP Award. He was not as dominant, throwing “only” 36 TDs against 22 INTs, but he set a personal record with 4,830 passing yards and still finished with a passer rating over 100 (101.4).

The next five years, however, were lost years for Warner. He battled injuries and ineffectiveness as he bounced from St. Louis to an infamously bad one year in New York and then to Arizona in 2005. While he was never truly terrible (Warner has never had a passer rating below 85.8 in any season in which he has started 10 or more games), Warner fell sharply off the radar screen from his days as the MVP in St. Louis.

This season, however, Kurt Warner has rocketed back to prominence. His regular season numbers were outstanding: 4,583 yards, a completion percentage of 67.1%, 30 TDs, and a passer rating of 96.9. And don’t give me the whole “well he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin” argument. Joe Montana had Jerry Rice, Roger Craig, and John Taylor, plus Bill Walsh crafting the offense; and I don’t hear that argument when people extol the greatness of Montana.

Warner’s true greatness, however, can best be viewed through his performance in the 10 biggest games in which he has played: the playoffs. Heading into Super Bowl 43, Warner has a career playoff passer rating of 97.3. This is good for second all-time as the immortal Bart Starr has a rating of 104.8. Joe Montana is third with a rating of 95.6. Additionally, Warner has a 9-1 record as a QB in the playoffs, with his onlKurt Warner Hall of Fame - Playoff and Super Bowl Statsy loss thus far coming to the Patriots in Super Bowl 36. Of all quarterbacks with 10 or more playoff starts, Warner’s winning percentage is the highest.

Sunday night, Kurt Warner can further bolster his Hall of Fame resume. Not only does Warner have a chance to join Joe Montana, Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, and Tom Brady as the only two-time Super Bowl MVPs – Montana actually won it three times – but there is a significant Super Bowl record within Warner’s reach:

Kurt Warner needs 364 passing yards to break Joe Montana’s record of 1,142 career passing yards in the Super Bowl, which Montana accumulated in four games. Incidentally, 364 yards would be Kurt Warner’s lowest total in a Super Bowl as he threw for 414 and 365 yards in his previous Super Bowl appearances (good for 1st and 2nd on the single-game Super Bowl record list).

So let’s be hypothetical for a moment, and let’s say the Cardinals and Kurt Warner overcome the odds (literally, as Pittsburgh is a 7-point favorite) to win the Super Bowl and Warner is named MVP. This would be Kurt Warner’s Hall of Fame resume:

  • 10-1 record in the postseason (best playoff winning percentage ever)
  • 2-time NFL MVP
  • 2-time Super Bowl MVP
  • Only QB to be named Super Bowl MVP for two different teams
  • Second-highest career completion percentage
  • Highest career average passing yards per game
  • Second-highest career playoff passer rating
  • Most career yards in Super Bowl (you have to assume he’ll be throwing for a lot of yards if the Cardinals are to win)
  • Intangible: the greatest rags-to-riches story in NFL history

Do the cumulative numbers stack up against the greatest QBs in NFL history? No, and they never will. Kurt Warner is already 37 years old and has maybe a couple more seasons left in him. He can move up the charts for wins, passing yards, TDs, etc., but his career numbers will never stack up against the greats.

What Warner will possess, if the Cardinals win and he plays great, is one of the greatest playoff and Super Bowl resumes of any player in NFL history. With as much emphasis as is placed on getting a Super Bowl ring and coming up Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame QB?big in clutch spots, Warner’s playoff resume will give him a tremendous boost when his name is called for HOF voting. Additionally, Warner will have done what no one thought possible: deliver a Super Bowl championship to the long-suffering Cardinals franchise.

If the Cardinals lose, even if Warner plays amazing, his candidacy will take a huge hit. Despite the two NFL MVP awards, Warner simply does not have a substantial enough regular season career to merit Hall consideration. He needs the incredible quality of his playoff resume to compensate for the fact that he has really only had 3 spectacular regular seasons. A 1-2 Super Bowl record and only one Super Bowl MVP award is a significant step back from a 2-1 Super Bowl record and two Super Bowl MVP awards. The rarified air that another Super Bowl win would place him in immediately vaults him into serious Hall of Fame consideration.

Kurt Warner would go into the Hall of Fame as one of the best playoff QBs of all-time – a player who was at his best on the grandest stage when his team needed him the most. His Hall of Fame candidacy will be built upon this clutch dominance. To merit legitimate Hall of Fame consideration, Kurt Warner needs to lead the Arizona Cardinals to a Super Bowl title on Sunday.

If he does, at least in my book, Kurt Warner will make himself a Hall of Famer.

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And, for the record, Jason Whitlock has a post today covering the same subject. He thinks even the question is “ridiculous”. If Namath is in the HOF, says Whitlock, then Warner has to be. And with a win Sunday, Whitlock places Warner among the top 10 QBs of all-time.

Super Bowl 43: Steelers-Cardinals Prediction – Get Ready For Sadness and Nausea Browns Fans

Steelers-Cardinals Prediction - Super Bowl 43 - Over-Under OddsWe are still 4 days and 21 hours away (thanks NFL.com) from the kickoff of Super Bowl 43 as I write this Steelers-Cardinals prediction post. Yet, I feel pretty confident that no one is going to get injured or get in trouble between now and Sunday that could materially affect the outcome of the game.

Earlier today, I updated you on the current injury status of Pittsburgh WR and Super Bowl 40 MVP Hines Ward. His sprained knee is hurting, and he won’t be 100%, but he will play. And seriously, it’s Hines Ward. Would you expect any different? JJ Arrington is a different story for Arizona, but he is obviously far less critical to his team’s success than Hines Ward.


If you want need a refresher of any of the particulars for this Sunday’s game (time, date, location, halftime entertainment, etc) click on over to the Super Bowl 43 Quick Preview that we did last week. It should be able to answer all of your questions.

As far as the point spreads go, here are the latest lines, courtesy of our friends at DocSports:

  • Sportsbook.com Point Spread: Steelers -6.5
  • Bodog Point Spread: Steelers -7
  • BookMaker Point Spread: Steelers -6.5
  • SuperBook Point Spread: Steelers -7

And the Over-Under odds for the Steelers-Cardinals game:

  • Sportsbook.com Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 46.5
  • Bodog Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 47
  • BookMaker Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 46.5
  • SuperBook Steelers-Cardinals Over-Under: 46.5

So, as they have been all week, the Steelers sit at right around a one touchdown favorite with an over-under average just under 47 points. I don’t know whether or not the Steelers will cover — I will leave that up to spread experts like Fraschetti to decide, as he did in his Cardinals-Steelers prediction post — but I do think that the Steelers will win Super Bowl 43, and that the two teams will go above the over.

This, of course, means that all Browns fans will have to once again live in a world in which the Steelers are the Super Bowl champs for an entire year. I know…the thought of it makes me nauseous too.

But as Rasheed Wallace once said, “it is what it is, and it do what it do.” (Side note: who knew that Rasheed Wallace could be so existentially brilliant?)

Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl 43 Prediction

Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl 43 Prediction | Over-Under

Before I get into the three reasons why I think the Pittsburgh Steelers will in Super Bowl 43, let’s discuss three reasons why the Cardinals could win the game.

1 – As Fraschetti pointed out in his first Super Bowl 43 preview article, the achilles heel of the Steelers’ defense throughout the years has been vulnerability through the air. The Steelers are monsters up front, and make it difficult for any team to run the ball, but they have been susceptible to big pass plays. This year, the Steelers ranked #1 across the board in defense, so I’m not sure this reason really holds much water (hence why I think the Steelers will win), but if the Cardinals are going to outscore the Steelers, they will have to do it by throwing the ball.

2 – Piggy-backing off of #1, the Cardinals have an absolutely outstanding passing game. If the Cardinals were a run-first team, I would say they have no chance. But with Kurt Warner and his deadly trio of Larry Fitzgerald, a healthier and probably extremely motivated Anquan Boldin, and the underrated Steve Breaston, the Cardinals will be able to move the ball through the air. In fact, I think the Cardinals will make this a higher scoring game than people think and get the final score above the Over-Under. And Kurt Warner proved in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game that he still has some of the magic that made him a Super Bowl MVP once beforeSteelers-Cardinals Prediction for Super Bowl 43 | Over-Under Odds.

3 – The Cardinals defense has been playing better. I don’t buy into some of the over-hyping of the Cardinals defense that I’ve read this week by some purported “experts”, but this is a defense that has proven itself to be opportunistic. Super Bowls can often turn on defensive serendipity — being in the right place at the right time for turnovers. Just ask the Steelers, who suffered their only Super Bowl loss because Larry Brown just happened to be standing right in the path of two Neil O’Donnell misfires. If the Cardinals are going to win, the defense will have to come up with a couple of key turnovers.

However, I don’t see this happening enough to get the Cardinals over the hump, which leads me to the three main reasons why I think the Steelers will be victorious in Super Bowl 43.

1 – Ben Roethlisberger will have a big game and be named Super Bowl 43 MVP. Big Ben was just an inexperienced youngster in Super Bowl 40. He was managing games for a strong running team with a great defense and he played a pretty poor game individually against the Seahawks. He is older, better, and now the unquestioned offensive leader and lynchpin of this year’s Steelers. He has Santonio Holmes Ben Roethlisberger - Steelers-Cardinals Predictionon one side and Old Reliable Hines Ward on the other, plus a healthy Willie Parker behind him. Roethlisberger will have two or three plays that he will try to force — he always does — and the Cardinals have to turn these plays into turnovers to have a chance.

I don’t see it happening. I think Ben Roethlisberger is extra, extra motivated to have a big game Sunday to erase the memories of his poor performance in Super Bowl 40 (no matter what he might say about not thinking about that game or it being in the past). He’s an athlete and he’s human. He’s thinking about it, and very much wants to compensate for it with a signature Super Bowl win. His legacy and the beginnings of his potential Hall of Fame candidacy — yeah, I said it — are on the line Sunday. He has burned the Browns too often for me to not have confidence that he’ll have a big game.

(For the record, I can’t believe I’ve somehow turned into a huge Ben Roethlisberger cheerleader, especially after writing this horrific post before the season started, but such is life when your team starts Ken Dorsey for half a season.)

2 – Troy Polamalu and James Harrison are two of the 5 best defensive players the Cardinals have faced all season. And this is an unscientific statement; I didn’t go down the Cardinals’ schedule this year. Polamalu and Harrison may very well be the two best defenders they have faced, bar none. Kurt Warner has proven that he is susceptible to fumbles when hit in the pocket — enter James Harrison and the zone-blitzing Steelers. Warner has also proven that he willMike Tomlin - Steelers-Cardinals Preview force throws, especially to Larry Fitzgerald, when the pocket collapses — enter the eye-reader Troy Polamalu.

I have a feeling that both of these guys will be involved in crucial, game-changing turnovers that will prevent the Cardinals from scoring enough points to win.

3 – Mike Tomlin. He’s a Steeler, but I love this guy. In fact, I have absolutely no idea how Eric frickin’ Mangini is every going to beat Tomlin. He is tough, he is old school, and he is absolutely the heartbeat and emotional leader of this Steelers team. I like Ken Whisenhunt and I think he is a very solid coach (better than Eric frickin’ Mangini), but Mike Tomlin just seems to have that extra gear of will and enthusiasm that trickles down to his players and gets the Steelers over the hump.

Mike Tomlin inspires a physical style of play in the Steelers that the Cardinals have not seen this year. I think the Cardinals are too skilled offensively to not score some points, but when push comes to shove — and it will — the Steelers will out-tough the Cardinals to the victory.

So sorry Browns fans, the nightmare continues. I will be rooting for the Cardinals, and hoping to be dead wrong with this prediction — I just don’t think I will be.

My official Steelers-Cardinals prediction:

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List of Super Bowl MVP Winners by Year and a Super Bowl 43 MVP Prediction

List of Super Bowl MVP Winners by YearAs part of our week-long project to educate you on Super Bowl history and get you ready for Super Bowl 43 this weekend, yesterday we offered up the Super Bowl winners and losers by year, as well as the list of teams who have won and lost the most Super Bowls.

Today, we are breaking down the history of the Super Bowl MVP award, as well as offering up a prediction as to who will be the MVP of Super Bowl 43.




Before we get into any predictions, let’s get a historical perspective by looking at the Super Bowl MVP winners by year, as presented to you in the table below:

List of Super Bowl MVP by Year

SB# Year Player Team Opponent Score
Super Bowl 1 1967 QB - Bart Starr Packers Chiefs 35-10
Super Bowl 2 1968 QB - Bart Starr Packers Raiders 33-14
Super Bowl 3 1969 QB - Joe Namath Jets Colts 16-7
Super Bowl 4 1970 QB - Len Dawson Chiefs Vikings 23-7
Super Bowl 5 1971 LB - Chuck Howley Cowboys Colts 13-16*
Super Bowl 6 1972 QB - Roger Staubach Cowboys Dolphins 24-3
Super Bowl 7 1973 S - Jake Scott Dolphins Redskins 14-7
Super Bowl 8 1974 RB - Larry Csonka Dolphins Vikings 24-7
Super Bowl 9 1975 RB - Franco Harris Steelers Vikings 16-6
Super Bowl 10 1976 WR - Lynn Swann Steelers Cowboys 21-17
Super Bowl 11 1977 WR - Fred Biletnikoff Raiders Vikings 32-14
Super Bowl 12 1978 DE - Harvey Martin, DT - Randy White Cowboys Broncos 27-10
Super Bowl 13 1979 QB - Terry Bradshaw Steelers Cowboys 35-31
Super Bowl 14 1980 QB - Terry Bradshaw Steelers Rams 31-19
Super Bowl 15 1981 QB - Jim Plunkett Raiders Eagles 27-10
Super Bowl 16 1982 QB - Joe Montana 49ers Bengals 26-21
Super Bowl 17 1983 RB - John Riggins Redskins Dolphins 27-17
Super Bowl 18 1984 RB - Marcus Allen Raiders Redskins 38-9
Super Bowl 19 1985 QB - Joe Montana 49ers Dolphins 38-16
Super Bowl 20 1986 DE - Richard Dent Bears Patriots 46-10
Super Bowl 21 1987 QB - Phil Simms Giants Broncos 39-20
Super Bowl 22 1988 QB - Doug Williams Redskins Broncos 42-10
Super Bowl 23 1989 WR - Jerry Rice 49ers Bengals 20-16
Super Bowl 24 1990 QB - Joe Montana 49ers Broncos 55-10
Super Bowl 25 1991 RB - Ottis Anderson Giants Bills 20-19
Super Bowl 26 1992 QB - Mark Rypien Redskins Bills 37-24
Super Bowl 27 1993 QB - Troy Aikman Cowboys Bills 52-17
Super Bowl 28 1994 RB - Emmitt Smith Cowboys Bills 30-13
Super Bowl 29 1995 QB - Steve Young 49ers Chargers 49-26
Super Bowl 30 1996 CB - Larry Brown Cowboys Steelers 27-17
Super Bowl 31 1997 KR/PR - Desmond Howard Packers Patriots 25-21
Super Bowl 32 1998 RB - Terrell Davis Broncos Packers 31-24
Super Bowl 33 1999 QB - John Elway Broncos Falcons 34-19
Super Bowl 34 2000 QB - Kurt Warner Rams Titans 23-16
Super Bowl 35 2001 LB - Ray Lewis Ravens Giants 34-7
Super Bowl 36 2002 QB - Tom Brady Patriots Rams 20-17
Super Bowl 37 2003 S - Dexter Jackson Buccaneers Raiders 48-21
Super Bowl 38 2004 QB - Tom Brady Patriots Panthers 32-29
Super Bowl 39 2005 WR - Deion Branch Patriots Eagles 24-21
Super Bowl 40 2006 WR - Hines Ward Steelers Seahawks 21-10
Super Bowl 41 2007 QB - Peyton Manning Colts Bears 29-17
Super Bowl 42 2008 QB - Eli Manning Giants Patriots 17-14
Super Bowl 43 2009 WR - Santonio Holmes Steelers Cardinals 27-23

* – Chuck Howley, the 1971 winner, is the only Super Bowl MVP from a losing team. The Cowboys were defeated by the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V.

* – The Cowboys are also the only team to have Co-MVPS, when Harvey Martin and Randy White split the award in 1978.

* – The Super Bowl MVP breakdown by team goes as follows:

  • Dallas Cowboys – 7
  • Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers – 5
  • Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Oakland/LA Raiders, Washington Redskins – 3
  • Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins – 2
  • Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1

* – The Super Bowl MVP breakdown by position goes as follows:

  • Quarterback – 22
  • Running Back – 7
  • Wide Receiver – 5
  • Defensive End, Linebackers, Safety – 2
  • Cornerback, Defensive Tackle, KR/PR – 1

Based on history, there are a few things that we can reasonably anticipate about who will be the MVP in Super Bowl 43:

  • There is better than a 50% chance that the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be the QB from the winning team.
  • There is a better than 95% chance that the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be a player from the winning team.
  • There is better than a 75% chance that the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be a “skill position” player from the winning team.
  • If the MVP does come from the defensive side of the ball, he is usually one of the stars of a historically great defense.List of Super Bowl MVP Winners by Year | Super Bowl 43 MVP Prediction - Ben Roethlisberger

With that being said, if I was forced to bet on whO the Super Bowl 43 MVP will be, my money would be on Ben Roethlisberger. I think that the Steelers are going to win the game, and after Big Ben’s putrid performance in Super Bowl 40, I think he will play well Sunday. Plus, while Arizona’s defense has been solid, they are not great by any stretch of the imagination. Roethlisberger should have a chance to put up pretty good numbers.

However, I would not be surprised to see either James Harrison or Troy Polamalu come away with the trophy. Kurt Warner, while he has been spectacular for most of his career and for most of this season, can be prone to turnovers. Additionally, the Steelers do have a historically great defense. Defensive players from the ‘85 Bears and ‘01 Ravens won the MVP trophy, and I could see one of the Steelers players getting the award too. Polamalu and Harrison would actually be my #2 and #3 choices for Super Bowl 43 MVP.

Assuming that the Steelers win, and assuming the percentages play out, an offensive player will be the MVP. I know that Hines Ward won the trophy in Super Bowl 40, but Big Ben was just a young pup then. He is absolutely the catalyst of the Steelers offense this year. If he does not play well, Arizona has a chance to win. If he does play well, he will get the requisite numbers to win the award. I don’t see another Steelers offensive player trumping him, unless something fluky happens.

Should the Cardinals somehow with the game, either Kurt Warner or Larry Fitzgerald will come away with the award. I think Fitzgerald would have to just be phenomenal to overcome the whole “storybook” aspect of Warner taking home another MVP trophy. Fitzgerald is certainly capable, but any numbers he gets would also go to Warner. My prediction, if Arizona wins, is that Kurt Warner takes home the trophy.

So, if I was handicapping the race, my Top 5 Players Most Likely to win the Super Bowl 43 MVP list would go something like this:

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
  2. Kurt Warner, Cardinals
  3. Troy Polamalu, Steelers
  4. James Harrison, Steelers
  5. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

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Week 10 Fire and Ice Fantasy Football Forum | Tim Hightower, Titans RBs, more

fire and ice fantasy football forumWeek 9 has come and gone, with only the Monday nighter left to play, and now we will focus on Week 10 of this 2008 NFL campaign. I have a lot to cover, so lets get to it.

(And remember to check back this Thursday for the Week 10 Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus for that late playoff push.)

On with the show:

ON FIRE…. Any team Defense that is playing the Oakland Raiders. You can count on that Defense, unless of course it is the Cleveland Browns D, who plays to the level, or lack thereof, of their opponent. Oakland is pathetic at best, and most high school teams could play them and chalk up a “W”.

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