UFC 102 Odds – Saturday, August 29, 10:00 PM ET

Randy Couture (16-9) vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1-1)

This heavyweight bout features two of the legendary fighters in MMA history, and both are coming off losses. Couture is a -180 favorite despite losing his belt to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91, but that was a bad fight for him as Lesnar was too big for the “Natural” to control with his wrestling skill. Nogueira was beaten by Frank Mir at UFC 91 for the interim heavyweight title, but it was revealed that “Minotauro” had a staph infection which hospitalized him in the run-in to the fight. That, combined with being a +150 underdog, should be more than enough motivation for Nogueira to prove that he’s still a draw in the UFC. If you’re a betting management player, take Nogueira in the upset pick.

Thiago Silva (13-1) vs Keith Jardine (14-5-1)

Silva is coming off a loss to Lyoto Machida in a match for Machida’s light-heavyweight belt, as he was knocked out just before the end of the first round. Jardine, as known as the “Dean of Mean”, has lost three of his last five fights, but he can’t be counted out. Jardine has racked up wins over guys like Chuck Liddell, Brandon Vera and Forrest Griffin, which is the only reason I can come with for him being a -160 favorite against Silva, who will be hungry to make his way back up the 205-pound ladder after losing to Machida. He has devastating power, as 10 of his 13 wins have come by knockout, and he’s well versed in the ways of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai. Jardine is in an unfamiliar spot as a favorite, and that could stand to hurt him in the long run. Go with Thiago Silva as a +130 underdog in your UFC sports picks next weekend.

As mentioned above, this match was to unify the Heavyweight title Lesnar had won from Randy “The Natural” Coture at UFC 91 last November, and the Interm Heavyweight Title Mir won from Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in December at UFC 92. Mir’s upset victory not only garnered him that interim title, but it added heat to the unification bout since he defeated Lesnar in the first round of his UFC debut.

Now to more immediate info.

UFC 96 is live this Saturday on PPV. As has been my duty in the past, I’m going to give you a look into the money lines, the backgrounds, and my feelings on a few of the fights. First lets his the specifics:

UFC 96 Live on Pay-Per-View, Saturday March 7th, 10pm est. All lines courtesy of BetUs.com.

Quintin “Rampage” Jackson (-350) v Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (+250)

The top fight on this event will see one of my all time favorites take on one of the ugliest men in the business. Rampage has been up and down over the last year. He lost the Light-Heavy title to Forrest Griffin, decided to stop eating and sleeping for a week, went for a highly publicized drive that resulted in injuries and damages to other people and their cars, fired his trainer, and joined a new camp in England. After all of that he still found it in him to turn out the lights on Wanderlei Silva and win the Knockout of the Night award back at UFC 92 in December. It’s rumored if Rampage wins, his next fight will be to reclaim the Light-Heavy title against a surging Rashad Evans.

There isn’t a lot of nice things I have to say about Keith Jardine. He has never wronged me personally and I haven’t met him. As a fighter I just don’t like him.

He is a guy who fights up to the talent level of whoever he’s fighting. That tells me he is lazy. He’s beaten both Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but during this span he has also lost to a failing Wanderlei Silva (who placed one hand on Keith’s neck and used the other to punch him ugly) and a worthless Houston Alexander.

What I am saying is Keith wins fights he should lose and loses fights he should win. His best bet at beating Rampage is by using leg kicks and hoping he can cause the same type damage Forrest Griffin did against Jackson.

My Pick: Rampage via KO in the First.

Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga (-160) V. Shane Carwin (+130)

This is a fight I want to watch. I have no idea what is going to happen in it, but we have one guy in Gonzaga who has the ability to have really fun bouts, and we have a guy in Carwin who is something of an up and comer. Gonzaga has a two-fight win streak going, and both have been dominate. That being said Fabrico Wedum and Randy Couture both TKO’ed him not that long ago.

Shane Carwin is someone I don’t know much about. I have watched his fights without ever really remembering him, of course that probably speaks more to my alcohol consumption then to his memorability. What I have learned about Carwin is that he is a wrestler by nature and he looks like he belongs in the WWE. Most importantly, he has never had to go out of the first round to get a win.

I don’t see it being out of the realm of reasonability that, with Mir out, this becomes a #1 contenders match. Whoever wins gets a shot at Lesnar at 98? I know it’s a bit of a stretch, but it would help the UFC add some last minute heat to a PPV which is seriously lacking buzz.

Just for you the reader, as I was finishing this article I happened across an interview with both Gonzaga and Carwin. It is because of this interview I am changing my prediction:

My Pick: Gonzaga via armbar in the second

Outside of these two fights, there isn’t a whole lot for me to add to this prediction. The actual PPV card is a bit weak for the UFC. Sure the Pete Sell Vs. Matt Brown match could turn into a slug fest, but neither man will turn into a title contender by winning. I am personally hoping to see Matt “The Hammer” Hamill drop to the new comer Mark Muno, but that is solely based on the fact Muno trains with Urijah Faber.

What is probably the most interesting fight on this card is the Brandon Vera v Michael Patt. It’s not interesting because of the matchup, but because Vera is within one loss of becoming a sports cautionary tale. He spent a year in a contract holdout to make huge money, pissed people off, got what he wanted, came back and hasn’t been impressive at all since. If Vira looses this fight, he will have gone from main event-caliber name to a pink slip in less then a year. After having watched the fighters weigh in, Patt looks like the town drunk, but Vera looked like he was already beaten. I wont be suprised if this goes to a decision or if Vera looses via TKO.