Following last season’s unexpected Final Four run, the Spartans were expecting six of their top seven scorers to suit up this year.  They dodged a bullet when Tom Izzo spurned the Cavaliers (who have turned into an even bigger dumpster fire than MSU), and Sparty seemed prime for another deep NCAA run.

But as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.”

Now less than a year removed from the second of back-to-back Final Fours, Michigan State has dismissed two players (Chris Allen and Korie Lucious), been run out of the gym by a rebuilding Iowa squad, and are three come-from-behind OT wins away from being 2-9 in the league and mired in a nine-game losing streak.

It seems easy to blame the players, and I’ll admit that the history of offcourt issues involving Allen and Lucious was a potential red flag.  After averaging 18.8 points and 5.6 boards and canning 17-of-34 three-pointers in the Big Dance last year, Durrell Summers seemed to have turned the corner.  However, Summers continues to be enigmatic and often disappears during key stretches, even earning a seat on the bench for lacking enthusiasm. Reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas doesn’t seem fully recovered from the Achilles injury sustained in the last year’s tournament, and the graduation of Raymar Morgan hurt the team far more than expected.

But as Doug Gottlieb argued on a recent podcast, the fact that Tom Izzo has skirted any blame for this is fascinating.  While I think Izzo’s track record of tournament success has earned him a bit of a pass, the performance of recent recruiting classes indicates the area where you can take him to task is player evaluation.

I looked at the past 16 basketball recruits who have suited up during at least one season in East Lansing, which dates back through the incoming class of the 2005-06 season.  According to the Rivals rankings, five of them were three-star recruits, nine earned four stars, and two were tabbed as five-star prospects, so Sparty hasn’t exactly been scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Of those players, only four (Morgan, Summers, Lucas, and Draymond Green) have averaged in double-figures for at least one season.  Four guys (Travis Walton, Lucas, Lucious, and Green) have posted at least three assists per game, and just two players (Morgan and Green) have posted more than six rebounds per contest.

In total, 46 seasons (or parts of seasons) have been played by these 16 recruits.  Of those, there were 11 with double-digit scoring averages, while nearly twice that (20) finished averaging fewer than 4.0 points per game.  There were also 11 “player seasons” with at least three assists per contest, and while Izzo-coached teams are known for pounding the glass, there were just four times where the recruits grabbed more than six boards per game.

For the sake of discussion let’s use those benchmarks (10.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, or 3.0 apg) to quantify solid performance, which I think we’d all agree are fairly conservative.  Six of the 16 recruits have accounted for all 26 “successes” as defined above.  That means 10 of the 16 players (62.5 percent) have made limited contributions at best.  Given the parity in college basketball and the cutthroat recruiting world, that type of success rate is a recipe for disaster even at a storied program like MSU.

Of the 16 recruits, none have been NBA early entrants, and the Spartans haven’t produced a first-rounder since 2006 when Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager were both taken.  More than that, they’ve had just four total players selected since 2002.  Ironically, that’s the same number of players to transfer out of the 16-player pool.

I’m not saying Michigan State needs to move toward the Kentucky model of filling the roster with one-and-done players as essentially a minor league NBA team, but a program like MSU should be able to attract and develop at least some NBA-caliber talent.  The fact is they haven’t done it for one of two reasons.  Either they can’t identify and target the right players in the first place, or they can’t develop them once they get there.

It’s interesting to see Draymond Green’s name show up so frequently above as a recent success story.  According to Rivals, Green was “just” a three-star recruit but has drastically outperformed more highly-rated frontcourt players like Tom Herzog, Delvon Roe, Derrick Nix, and Garrick Sherman.

The under-performance of those last three names has left the Spartans with virtually no post presence this season, which has been a major factor in their issues on offense.  Roe suffered a knee injury his senior year of high school and has never been able to recapture the explosiveness he showed on the prep level.  Nix and Sherman both came in as four-star recruits but have barely averaged over 20 minutes combined this season.  Nix even left the team briefly earlier this year.

Given the desperate need for more interior scoring, if either one of these guys had shown any flashes, they would be getting minutes.  They’d have to.  The same can be said of freshman Adreian Payne, who came in as a five-star prospect.  He’s playing fewer than nine minutes per game, and in close games he routinely logs less than five.  It’s a scary proposition for the future to see Payne unable to wrestle more minutes away from the likes of Nix and Sherman based on how poorly they have played.

According to Rivals, Izzo and the Spartans have the 16th-rated class for next season as they look to replace Lucas and Summers in what has suddenly become a very thin backcourt.  If the interior players continue to develop slowly, fans in East Lansing might be in for another long season.

So while the likes of Chris Allen and Korie Lucious will be the scapegoats for this season’s shortcomings, those excuses won’t fly if the Spartans struggle again.  The reality is that the addition of guys like Allen and Lucious circles right back to the recruiting process, and it proves that Izzo’s recent misses on the recruiting trail have come home to roost.

However, they very well may have to do it without the services of point guard Kalin Lucas, who left the game in the first half and may have torn his Achilles’.

Here is the latest injury update on Kalin Lucas, posted on ESPN.com shortly after the Spartans’ game against Maryland ended:

Two-time All-Big Ten player Kalin Lucas was in a walking boot with whatMichigan State coach Tom Izzo says is likely a torn Achilles tendon.

That would make it almost impossible for Lucas to play for Michigan State against Northern Iowa in the Midwest Regional semifinals this week.

…

“It looks like it might be a torn Achilles, to be honest with you,” Izzo said moments after the Spartans advanced thanks to a 3-pointer at the buzzer by Korie Lucious, Lucas’ replacement.

Lucas will have an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of the damage, so Spartan fans can hold out hope that the Achilles is not torn and that Lucas can somehow play. Izzo did say, however, that they were about 85% sure of the prognosis.

What a shame. Kalin Lucas was tremendous during the Spartans’ run to the title game last year, and despite an up and down regular season he had started out very well in this year’s tournament.

Luckily for Michigan State, they do not have to face Kansas and Sherron Collins next week, but Northern Iowa is a superb defensive team that would have caused the turnover-prone Spartans trouble even with Lucas.

I’ll update this post if anything surprisingly positive comes out of Monday’s MRI. As it stands now, it looks like Kore Lucious will need to be ready to step up and fill Lucas’ shoes. If his game-winning shot against Maryland is any indication, he seems more than capable of doing so.

Update: As of Monday morning, still awaiting MRI results, Tom Izzo now says he is “90% sure” that his Spartans will be without Kalin Lucas when they face Northern Iowa in the Sweet 16.

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* – Tom Izzo and Kalin Lucas photo credit: AP Photo/Rajah Bose via Washington Post

Northern Iowa, which has been one of the most underrated teams in America all season because it plays in the under-appreciated Missouri Valley Conference, gets a chance to slay another Goliath from a big conference when the Panthers take on Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans in the Sweet 16.

We’ll get you all the information you need to know, plus offer a prediction for what is sure to be a unpredictable game.

Sweet 16 Preview: #5 Michigan State v #9 Northern Iowa (Midwest Region)

• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Date: Friday, March 26th
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Tip Time: 9:37 ET
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Michigan State-Northern Iowa Spread: Michigan State -1
• StubHub: Michigan State-Northern Iowa Tickets
• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: Midwest Regional Tickets (both sessions)

Michigan State-Northern Iowa Analysis

Next, let’s analyze this Sweet 16 matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]

Here is how the numbers break down between Northern Iowa and Michigan State:

Looking at the five win odds, Michigan State has an advantage, with the simulated games giving Michigan State a 54%-46% edge. Tallying up the offensive and defensive numbers, Michigan State has the edge in four of the five offensive categories while Northern Iowa has the edge in four of the five defensive categories.

So based on the stats, you’d think Michigan State should have a slight overall edge entering this contest.

However, what these numbers do not take into account is the injury suffered Spartan PG Kalin Lucas in the team’s win over Maryland. The immediate post game report on the injury is that it is likely a torn Achilles’ tendon. An MRI will be done on Monday, but it does not look good.

Can Michigan State win without Lucas? Sure, they can. The Spartans were able to fend off a late rally by Maryland in the Round of 32 without their floor general.

However, if Northern Iowa was able to defeat #1 ranked Kansas with their superb point guard Sherron Collins, why should we expect that the Panthers will not be able to take care of an inconsistent Spartans team playing without its point guard?

Sure, Michigan State has Tom Izzo’s tournament experience to fall back on, plus the experience guys like Draymond Green and Durrell Summers gained during last year’s Final Four run, and we know that Michigan State’s ability to rebound is second to none in America. But to pick Michigan State – assuming that they have to play without Kalin Lucas – without more compelling reasons than these, would be disrespectful to a Northern Iowa team that has proven it deserves to be held in high regard.

The Panthers are a balanced, experienced team led by guys like Ali Farokhmanesh who clearly have no fear and will not be intimidated by Michigan State. Northern Iowa has four players who average 9.7 points or more per game but none who averages more than 12.0.

They are also one of the most defensively efficient teams in America, which could prove very problematic for Michigan State if Lucas is a no-go. The Spartans have struggled with turnovers all season, a problem that will obviously be exacerbated if their point guard is out.

Michigan State-Northern Iowa prediction: If Lucas were playing, I’d pick Michigan State to end the Cinderalla story of Northern Iowa. However, without Lucas, Northern Iowa’s defensive toughness will prove too much to overcome, even for Tom Izzo and the experienced Spartans.

(Note: If something changes regarding Kalin Lucas’ status, I’ll update this post.)

Northern Iowa 63 | Michigan State 60

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* – Tom Izzo and Kalin Lucas photo credit: AP Photo/Rajah Bose via Washington Post

* – Ali Farokhmanesh photo credit: Nelson Chenault, US Presswire via USA Today

Excitement is building in East Lansing as the Spartans prepare to face their first real challenge of the season against Gonzaga, at 8 p.m. on ESPN.

The Spartans will showcase their talented line up that is gathering more and more comparisons to the 2000 championship team. Coach Tom Izzo is among those making such comparisons.

In an interview with ESPN.com Izzo was asked if he would ever coach someone like Mateen Cleaves again. Izzo answered saying that he may be doing that right now. The player Izzo is talking about is junior point guard Kalin Lucas.

As Lucas continues to emerge as a premier point guard, his similarities with Cleaves become more apparent. Lucas, like Cleaves, is a Michigan native and Lucas is now in the leadership role Cleaves once held. Lucas came out of the gates quick this season, scoring 21 points and one highlight reel layup against Florida Gulf Coast.

Tonight Michigan State takes on Gonzaga, for the first time since the “Goran Suton triple overtime missed layup fiasco.” (The image of Adam Morrison’s mustache is still burned in my mind from that game.)

However, both teams have changed greatly from their last meeting. Gonzaga is in a transitional year with only one returning starter, in Matt Bouldin. Michigan State is a potential Final Four team this year.

Forwards Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe saw limited time in the opener against Florida Gulf Coast due to lingering injuries. The two forwards should be ready for more minutes againsts Gonzaga, but still may be out of the starting five.

Freshman center Derrick Nix put up a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds in his debut. Nix and fellow freshman center Garrick Sherman will be utilized to take on some of Morgan and Roe’s minutes.

The trio of Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen will be counted on as the primary scorers. Lucas and Summers combined for 38 points in the opener and have been the sparkplugs for the offense. Allen struggled with his shooting in the opener, but is still a viable outside threat.

Sophomores Korie Lucious and Draymond Green are the x-factors coming off of the bench. Against Florida Gulf Coast, Lucious looked very confident in his jumpshot and has been playing aggressive. Green helped score second-chance points by controlling the offensive boards.

Gonzaga will challenge Michigan State bu the Spartans should win this game. The key word being “should.” Gonzaga has a size advantage against State and the undersized Spartan forwards will have to play big. This game is not a complete lock but if the Spartans play as they did their first game they will come out with a win.

Prediction: Lucas and Summers are too much for the Zag’s backcourt to handle and Michigan State takes the win 86-78.

Nearly a decade later, the Final Four returns to Indianapolis and the Spartans are hoping for a case of dèjà vu.

Last season the Spartans almost fulfilled a dream season but fell just short of winning a national championship in Detroit. Unfortunately for MSU, the North Carolina team they faced was truly the better team.

Now the Spartans are a much different team from a year ago.

State comes into the season with a #2 national ranking and is favored to be Big-10 champions for the second year in a row. Center Goran Suton and point guard Travis Walton may have both graduated, but new players are ready to step into their roles.

The Spartans will likely start three guards with Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers. Forwards Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe will likely complete the starting lineup.

• Lucas will be the team leader at the point guard position and is emerging as one of the top floor generals in the nation.
• Morgan is the only senior in this starting lineup and will be depended on heavily for points in the paint.
• Allen is the sharpshooter of this squad, providing a dangerous outside threat.
• Summers will use his explosiveness to drive at the basket and also can spot up and shoot from outside.
• Sophomore Delvon Roe will be given the oppurtunity to show why he was recruited so heavily as an extremely athletic forward.

Off of the bench, sophomore Korie Lucious will be a sparkplug with his lightning quickness and high energy play. Sophomore Draymond Green is continuing to get himself in better physical shape, making himself an even more dangerous player off of the bench.

Freshman centers Garrick Sherman and Derrick Nix will see a lot of playing time, to help prepare them for tournament time when MSU will need a post presence off of the bench.

The Spartans will get a rematch against North Carolina this season and will also face an always tough Gonzaga team early in the year.

Michigan State’s toughest non-conference matchup however, at least based on preseason projections, will be against #3 Texas. The Spartans have had the Longhorns’ number the last three seasons. Similarly, top ranked Kansas looks like they could go wire-to-wire this season, but the Spartans beat the Jayhawks twice last season.

My season prediction: Michigan State has a lean and athletic squad this year that will be one of the more exciting teams in the country. Size in the frontcourt is a weakness for the Spartans, but that didn’t stop them from reaching the Final Four last season. The Spartans will edge out Purdue for a Big-10 Chamionship and will be a Final Four team.

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* – Tom Izzo photo credit: AllBigTen.com

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

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This post will analyze the Michigan State-North Carolina NCAA Championship game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

From the Maui Invitational to March Madness, it all comes down to Championship Monday. One of the participants in this year’s Mens NCAA Championship Game was excepted: North Carolina. The other, Michigan State, surprised a lot of people (but not me) by surpassing Louisville to even make it to Detroit for the Final Four. They then surprised even more people (including me) by knocking off UConn Saturday night.

Now, the Spartans and head coach Tom Izzo have an opportunity to bring even more joy to the city of Detroit by capturing the 2009 NCAA Championship. All that stands in their way is the most talented team in America and the team that has been more dominant than any other during the NCAA Tournament. Monday night’s game will be, undoubtedly, the most challenging yet for Izzo, Kalin Lucas, and the mighty Spartans.

But so was Saturday night’s game against UConn, and Michigan State was able to impose their will in an 82-73 victory.

And so was last weekend’s game against Louisville, but the Spartans took the Cardinals behind the woodshed in the second half and made all fans of Big Ten basketball proud in a 64-52 victory.

The question now is: can these magic Spartans pull another unexpected rabbit out of their hat with an upset over North Carolina?

I’m about to put my 12-2 record predicting all of the games since the Sweet 16 on the line. I went against Michigan State in their Final Four matchup with UConn. It will take a lot for me to pick against them again.

Unfortunately for all of the Big Ten and Spartan supporters who will be cheering on the guys in green Monday night, North Carolina has proven there are a lot of reasons to like their chances. Will it be enough to overcome the decidedly home court-like advantage that Michigan State will enjoy on Monday night? That’s what we’re here to find out. (Or, at least, predict.)

First, a few of the specifics for the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship game between Michigan State and North Carolina:

Michigan State v North Carolina National Championship Game Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• RazorGator: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• Hotels.com: Find Hotels in Detroit for Mens NCAA Championship Game
• What: 70th Mens Basketball NCAA Championship Game
• Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• When: Monday, April 6th
• TV Time: 9:21 ET on CBS
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -7.5
• Over-Under: 153

(FYI…the spread and over-under info are the initial lines from BetUs.com from Saturday night. You may want to check there for the most up-to-date info.)

And now, let’s head over to Game Predictor and see how Michigan State and North Carolina match up with respect to the same five statistical categories we have used to analyze every game thus far since the Sweet 16:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.155 | Michigan State – 1.058
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.932 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.416 | Michigan State – 1.181
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.765 | Michigan State – 0.698
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.414 | Michigan State – 0.414

So the Tar Heels win three out of the five categories, with the teams being identical in terms of the field goal percentage they give up. For anyone who has been following these predictions, we know that Game Predictor will choose the Tar Heels. They are the higher seed and have the advantage in the stat categories. The question is, how strong will the prediction be? Let’s find out:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 59.2% | Michigan State – 40.8%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.7 | Michigan State – 71.8
• Odds to Cover Spread: (I did this before the spread had been posted. Use the link above to go to Game Predictor and analyze it on your own, using your own stats, if you really want to know. I don’t bet on sports, so I don’t really care that much.)
• Confidence Level: 2 Stars

Now that we know how Game Predictor sees the game, with no real surprises, it’s time for a little analysis and prediction.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s discuss one thing that does not matter heading into Monday night’s MSU-UNC game:

Back in December, North Carolina beat Michigan State 98-63 at Ford Field in Detroit

A lot of people are going to point to the Michigan State-North Carolina game from earlier this season as a reason for why North Carolina can and should beat Michigan State on Monday. Why? Same teams + same season + same venue (should) = same result…right?

Not so fast, and here are the reasons:

• In December, the announced attendance was 25,267 out of the 70,000 person capacity at Ford Field. Monday night, there will be 70,000 strong at the game and the vast majority will be partial to the Spartans. Michigan State may not be in East Lansing, but it will be as close to a home game as possible for a game like this in terms of fan support.
• Goran Suton did not play in the first meeting. He was out with a sprained knee. Suton did not have a good game against UConn Saturday, but he was huge in the Spartans’ wins over Kansas and Louisville.
• Michigan State came into the game having only two days rest after playing three games in four nights at the Old Spice Classic in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. After the game, Tom Izzo said, “The blame goes on me for the scheduling. We were dead.” The Tar Heels had finished up their championship run in the Maui Invitational on November 26th and then played a tune-up game against UNC-Asheville that resulted in a relaxing 116-48 victory. Ty Lawson smartly said during the press conference after the Villanova game that the previous game would have no bearing on Monday night.
• Kalin Lucas scored six points on 2-10 shooting. Have you seen him play in the tournament? Do you think he’ll do that again? I don’t think so.

Okay, now that we have that out of the way, let’s take a look at where each team has an advantage with three reasons why each team will win.

Three Reasons Why North Carolina Will Beat Michigan State

1 – Plain and simple, North Carolina at its best is better than Michigan State at its best.

Can anyone truly, honestly dispute this?

If both of these teams play their absolute best basketball of the season, North Carolina will win. But luckily for the Spartans, the game is not played in such a vacuum. Many people thought Michigan State and Kansas were an even match, and the Spartans came out on top. Most people gave Louisville and UConn the advantage over Michigan State, but the Spartans still came out on top.

Nearly everyone, again, will give North Carolina the advantage over Michigan State — so can the Spartans come out on top?

Well, they can…but they have to force the Tar Heels to play below their ability. And while this is certainly possible in a one game scenario, you would lose more money that you’d win betting against the team with superior ability.

An old adage of winning in the NCAA Tournament is that usually the teams with the most NBA-level talent end up going the furthest. North Carolina certainly has more players projected to make an impact at the next level than Michigan State. Again, this does not necessarily mean that North Carolina will win, but their chances of doing so are certainly better.

2 – Ty Lawson is the best player on the floor.

I realize that this somewhat piggybacks on the last one, but it’s an important distinction. Having a lot of talent is great, but if that talent does not function together as a unit, it does not matter. The reason why Michigan State has beaten Louisville and UConn is that Kalin Lucas has been an oustanding floor general and has guided the talent on the floor with him to play better team basketball than its opponents.

Ty Lawson is doing the exact same thing, and now we know why everyone was so concerned about his toe injury. This guy is magnificent.

And as good as Kalin Lucas is, Ty Lawson is still a notch above. I love Kalin, but he is not as consistent a shooter nor quite as effective a playmaker in the open court as Lawson. A quick comparison:

• Points per game: Ty Lawson – 16.3 | Kalin Lucas – 14.6
• Assists per game: Ty Lawson – 6.5 | Kalin Lucas – 4.6
• Field Goal %: Ty Lawson – .542 | Kalin Lucas – .394
• Free Throw %: Ty Lawson – .815 | Kalin Lucas – .814
• Free Throw Attempts per game: Ty Lawson – 5.2 | Kalin Lucas – 5.52
• 3 Point %: Ty Lawson – .485 | Kalin Lucas – .388

Look, I love Kalin Lucas. (In fact, I’ve now said that I love him in two consecutive paragraphs, but it’s just a basketball crush and nothing more, I promise.) And you can chalk up Lawson’s advantage in points and assists to the style of play North Carolina employs. Surprisingly, the more slight-of-frame Lucas actually get to the foul line more than Lawson, which proves the kid’s toughness and ability to get into the teeth of the defense. (As well as the fact that Michigan State has played in a few more close games.)

However, those shooting percentages are difficult to ignore. In a one game scenario, either of these guys could be hot or cold. The question is, who is more likely to be hot and who is more likely to be cold? The stats say Ty Lawson is more likely to a great shooting night.

I think the frontcourts for these two teams are very similar (assuming either Raymar Morgan or Goran Suton shows up), and that guard production will likely decide the outcome; if this is true, then it’s hard to choose against the Tar Heels and Lawson.

3 – The Tar Heels have been on a mission since this time last year.

After North Carolina got royally spanked by Kansas in the Final Four last year, the Tar Heels’ terrific trio of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Tyler Hansbrough all decided to come back for another run. Without question, they had one primary goal in mind: win the national title.

Now, I realize that every top echelon team (Michigan State included) enters a season hoping to win a national title. But the Tar Heels entered the season expecting to win a national title, and knowing they had the talent to do it. Plus, they had the extra motivation of erasing last year’s Final Four embarrassment. They did that tonight by beating Villanova, and now they have one more step left to complete their season-long journey.

I think this is a big difference between these two teams.

North Carolina started the season as the #1 team in America in both polls, with no other team receiving a first place vote. Then they went out and dominated the majority of their competition and are peaking at just the right time. Michigan State started out at #6 and #7 in the two polls, had an up and down season, but they too are peaking at the right time. But I get a small sense to happy-to-be-here from Michigan State. I think their goal was to make it to Detroit entering the season. North Carolina’s goal was to win it in Detroit.

You will see below that I think the home court advantage is big for Michigan State, but I also think the confidence, belief, and season-long championship tunnel-vision of North Carolina is a big advantage for the Tar Heels. If North Carolina was going to lay an egg, I think they would have done it tonight in the Final Four; but they stared down the evil memory of last year and overcame it emphatically. Now freed from that pressure, there is only one more sprint to the only finish line they were targeting all season: the National Championship.

A supremely talented team that is on a mission, and peaking as they approach their mission’s achievement, is extremely dangerous. North Carolina heading into Monday night is extremely dangerous.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat North Carolina

1 – Michigan State can work the offensive glass and control teams in transition

Watch North Carolina play and you are likely to wear our your neck going back and forth trying to keep up with the action. The Tar Heels push the ball and push the ball and push the ball some more. If you are going to beat North Carolina, you absolutely have to be able to play strong transition defense. Surprisingly though, you do not have to dominate the Tar Heels on the glass to win.

Case in point, in their four losses this year:

• North Carolina outrebounded Maryland 46-38 in an 88-85 loss
• North Carolina outrebounded Wake Forest 46-35 in a 92-89 loss
• North Carolina outrebounded Boston College 45-38 in an 85-78 loss
• North Carolina was outrebounded by Florida State 35-34 in a 73-70 loss

And earlier tonight, Villanova outrebounded North Carolina 50-46, but still lost 83-69. So clearly, rebounding by itself is not a key to beating North Carolina. But here is what is a key: getting solid offensive rebounding from your frontcourt players, while your backcourt guys are heading back to slow down the North Carolina transition. A deeper look at the Carolina losses this year:

• Maryland had 12 offensive rebounds, seven of which came from frontcourt players
• Wake Forest had 8 offensive rebounds, all of which came from frontcourt players
• Boston College had 14 offensive rebounds, 10 of which came from frontcourt players
• Florida State had 12 offensive rebounds, 10 of which came from frontcourt players

And tonight, Villanova had 19 offensive rebounds, but 10 of them came from backcourt players Dwayne Anderson, Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher. With those guys battling inside for offensive rebounds, North Carolina was able to get into transition and get open looks. The result was 83 points and 11-22 shooting from downtown.

Look at the Oklahoma-UNC game. The Sooners tied the Tar Heels on the glass 27-27 overall and beat them 10-6 on the offensive end, with all of those offensive rebounds coming from frontcourt guys. The Sooners held the Tar Heels to 72 points, which is 11 less than the Heels scored in any other tournament game and 17 fewer than their season average. Unfortunately for Oklahoma, they simply could not hit a shot themselves (2-19 from downtown) and only scored 60.

If Michigan State shoots 2-19 from downtown, obviously they have no chance. They had a poor shooting night tonight and still went 6-19 from deep. But if they can follow Oklahoma’s blueprint for slowing down UNC’s pace, the Spartans can win a game played in the 70s.

Can they follow that blueprint?

Well, just look at tonight — because they did. Against a much bigger UConn team, the Spartans were outrebounded only 41-40 and won on the offensive side 16-15. Most importantly, neither Kalin Lucas nor Travis Walton contributed even one rebound to the excellent effort on the offensive glass. What they did do is get back and slow down AJ Price and the Huskies’ running game. UConn only shot 42.4% overall and 2-6 from downtown, both stats proving that they did not get many easy shots, most of which typically come out of transition.

2 – To beat North Carolina you must have guards who can score; Michigan State does

Let’s take a look at North Carolina’s three losses again:

• G Greivis Vasquez scored 35 points on 13-24 shooting and 5-10 from downtown in the Maryland loss
• Gs Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders combined for 47 points on 16-28 shooting and 6-13 from downtown in the Boston College loss
• G Jeff Teague scored 34 points on 9-17 shooting and 3-4 from downtown in the Wake Forest loss
• G Toney Douglas scored 27 points on 10-18 shooting and 3-8 from deep in the Florida State loss in the ACC Tournament.

I actually thought that this was a reason why Villanova would have a chance against North Carolina. And while Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher combined for 45 points, they were a combined 16-46 from the field. Villanova’s shot selection on Saturday night was, in a word, atrocious.

Michigan State is a much more disciplined team offensively, and should use better shot judgment and be more patient to get open looks. And while I do not think you will see any of their players individually match the output that Vasquez, Rice, Sanders, Teague, and Douglas had in leading their teams to victory, Michigan State does have five players capable of scoring in double-digits and hitting outside shots on a nightly basis: Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, Travis Walton, and Korie Lucious.

Kalin Lucas is the most consistent of the bunch, and he will have to score points on Monday night. He has scored at least 10 in the Spartans’ last four tournament games, including 21 Saturday against UConn. I think Lucas needs to score in the 15-20 range for the Spartans to win, but most importantly they must get balance from these five guys.

The biggest question mark about North Carolina throughout the season was their defense, but they have proven over the last couple of games that they can step it up and play solid D. By no means is it a foregone conclusion that Michigan State’s guards can score enough points to keep up with the Tar Heels, but they do have the talent to do it, which is why they have a chance Monday night.

Without significant point production from the backcourt, you simply do not beat North Carolina; the Spartan guards need to bring it Monday night, and they are capable.

3 – The home court advantage and close game experience

I think these are a big deal. A very big deal.

North Carolina is a team with incredible “spurtability” that likes to lay the hammer down on opponents — a lot like they did against the Spartans early in the year, and a lot like they did against Villanova Saturday. North Carolina jumped out on the Wildcats early, and ‘Nova was never able to get back into it. It looked to me like Villanova was playing as if everything was going against them, and the self-fulfilling prophecy proved true.

The Tar Heels average point differential on the season is 17.8 points (89.8-72.0), so they are used to imposing their will and putting teams away. There is no question in my mind that North Carolina will make some runs on Monday night. They are too good and too talented not to. But with Michigan State having a raucous Detroit crowd willing them on at every opportunity, the Tar Heels will be hard pressed to “knock out” the Spartans.

For a team that gets lots of easy victories, being in a knock-down, drag-out fight can sometimes be challenging. Certainly, North Carolina has won close games this year (79-76 over Virginia Tech, 69-65 over Miami, for example), but they have only played 10 games decided by 10 points or less, going 6-4 in these contests. Michigan State, on the other hand, has been grinding out games all season long. The Spartans average point differential is 9.0 (72.0-63.0) and they are 12-2 in games decided by 10 points or less.

The point differential is obviously a double-edged sword. North Carolina’s shows its potential for dominance, which is why they are about a touchdown favorite on Monday night, and I don’t think anyone would walk away from Monday night completely shocked if North Carolina puts on a dominating performance; we’ve just seen it too often from them in the tournament. However, if Michigan State can battle and keep it close, I like the Spartans’ chances. They are used to playing in closer games and have a great record when it comes to pulling them out.

And that’s where the crowd comes in.

I saw first hand how much a crowd can will a team to stay in a game when the Spartans played in Bloomington this year. Michigan State is one of the finalists for the NCAA title, and Indiana fielded perhaps the worst team in school history. Yet, somehow, the Hoosiers were able to make it only a 5-point game, losing 64-59, with Indiana outscoring the Spartans 32-30 in the second half. With such a great disparity in talent, the Hoosiers used grit, determination, will, and the energy of the home crowd to fight until the end.

There is no question that while North Carolina is the more talented and explosive team, that Michigan State is far closer to the Tar Heels than Indiana was to Michigan State. A little more talent and Indiana might have pulled off the upset. For Michigan State, we have seen their grit, determination, and will — and we know how crazy the Ford Field crowd will be for them Monday night. I think all of those factors will help the Spartans keep it close; and if they do, as the stats prove, I think the Spartans have an advantage in a close game.

Okay, so now that we’ve run down three reasons why each team will win, it’s time to hop onto one side of the fence and choose which of these two teams will actually be the victor, and the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Champion, on Monday night. However, it’s not quite as easy as just picking one or the other.

My gut says that Tom Izzo’s game-planning brilliance, the Spartans’ grit, Kalin Lucas’ leadership, and the support of the Detroit crowd will keep this game close. And in a close game I like the Spartans, as I just mentioned. However, my head says that North Carolina has such a fierce combination of talent and focus that they are simply unbeatable by any team in college basketball right now. Yet, my heart says Michigan State because of my affinity for their coach and my desire to see the Big Ten gain back some of the prestige that has been lost in recent seasons.

It would be easy to go with my head on this one and make the “safe” pick. However, I’m going with the Spartans, and unlike during the games on Saturday night (when I picked UConn and UNC to win) I can actually cheer with my pick on Monday.

But in the end, I’m not just picking the Spartans because I want to. I saved a very important “why they will win” reason for the end, and here it is:

I trust Tom Izzo more in big games than I trust Roy Williams.

Both are great coaches — Hall of Famers, in fact — and both have won championships before. And while both coaches have had successes and failures in big spots, there is just something visceral about Tom Izzo’s fiery, underdog, energetic style that I buy into more than Roy Williams’ style. Unlike the analysis above, I don’t have lots of stats to back my support for Izzo up, and you are well within your right to say I am biased on this one. But I picked against Izzo in the Michigan State-Connecticut game, and I’m not about to do it again on Monday.

Plus, I think an overzealous North Carolina fan may have unwittingly jinxed the Tar Heels.

I just went to the Wikipedia pages for both Tom Izzo and Roy Williams to examine their career records for something quantitative to back up by claim of trusting Izzo more in big games.

Here is a screen shot of what the section on Izzo’s career coaching record looked like:

And here is a screen shot of what the section on Williams’ career coaching record looked like:

Notice anything funny about the Roy Williams page? Someone already edited it to say “National Championship” for this season. (If you go to the page now, it very well could be edited, but that’s why I did the screen capture. Readers of this site know that I like to have fun with Photoshop from time to time, but I promise you that this is exactly how the pages looked.)

Hmm…it’s 1:20 am Central Time on Sunday morning as I write this. Looks like somebody jumped the gun bit declaring a winner. And while it’s not the same as the New England Patriots copyrighting 19-0 before the Super Bowl, it’s still jinx-worthy in my book.

Add up North Carolina’s three reasons and the Game Predictor outcome, and then add up Michigan State’s three reasons plus Izzo over Williams, and the two teams are knotted at 4-4. Throw in the jinx and the tie is broken.

Prediction: Michigan State completes a storybook run to the National Championship by winning a close, hard-fought game on Monday night against the backdrop of a city that loves its Spartans, and certainly deserves some joy in the midst of its terrible economic woes.

I can’t wait for this one. It’s going to be one hell of a championship game.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

This post will analyze the Michigan State-Connecticut Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

This is the Final Four matchup, Michigan State versus UConn, that I picked from the very start. I have to admit that I became less and less confident that it would actually happen as the tournament unfolded, but it has proven a few tournament cliches true:

• Teams with talented, experienced, and battle-tested guards win in March.
• Teams that get consistent production from their low-post players win in March.
• Free throw shooting matters in March.

Michigan State and UConn have not been perfect in these areas through four games, but they have been better and more consistent in these areas than any other team on their side of the bracket. And the reason is the two incredible coaches that are on the sideline: Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun.

UConn coach Jim Calhoun started his career at Northeastern University in 1972. He remained their coach until 1986 and compiled a 248-137 record. In five out of his last six seasons there, they made the NCAA Tournament, three times advancing to the second round. In 1986, Calhoun took over a struggling Connecticut program and went a combined 13-35 in the Big East during his first three seasons in Storrs. Since then, he has won two national championships, reached the Final Four this year, made five other Elite 8 appearances, four additional Sweet 16 appearances, and earned 556 victories against only 204 losses. Without question, Jim Calhoun is among the top handful of coaches in America today.

Also with him in the handful of top coaches is Tom Izzo of Michigan State. I have made no secret of my basketball-man-crush on Tom Izzo, and the Spartans’ tournament run this season is only reinforcing what I’ve already thought: Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in America, period. You can debate who is the best, but you better include Izzo in the debate. (And I hope that someday his protege Tom Crean is in the debate as well, but that remains to be seen.)

Just look at the resume Tom Izzo has compiled in East Lansing since taking over for Jud Heathcote in 1995. Izzo is 335-136 and has tied or won the Big Ten conference five times. His true greatness, however, can be seen in the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans made the NIT during Izzo’s first two years in town, but have made the NCAA Tournament every season since 1997-98. During that span, Izzo and the Spartans have won a national championship (2000), reached the Final Four four other tmes (1999, 2001, 2005, 2009), reached the Elite 8 in 2003, and have been to the Sweet 16 two other times (1998, 2008). The Spartans’ masterful upset stomping of Louisville yesterday in Indianapolis was a microcosm of the tournament greatness that Izzo has consistently displayed at Michigan State.

This Saturday in Detroit, Izzo and the Spartans battle Calhoun and the Huskies for the chance to play for all the marbles on Monday night. UConn and its Big East pedigree are favored, but if we learned anything from this weekend, it is this: don’t count the Spartans out. They knocked off the Big East champions in impressive fashion and will no doubt give UConn all it can handle.

Let’s take a look at the particulars and then break down the game itself.

Michigan State-UConn Final Four Preview and Prediction

• Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
• Final Four Quick Preview
• Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
• TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
• MSU-UConn Game Time: 6:07 PM ET
• Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Spread: Connecticut -4.5
• Over-Under: 135
• ESPN Team Pages: Michigan State Spartans | Connecticut Huskies

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/30 at 7:45 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. I don’t know where ESPN gets the spread info listed below that is used on the Game Predictor.)

And now, it’s time to analyze this matchup.

As you know, I have been using the ESPN Game Predictor to analyze every game since the Sweet 16 started. Based on the output from the Game Predictor, plus my own intuition, I have correctly picked 11 out of the last 12 games (missing only on Syracuse-Oklahoma). And that’s straight up, I don’t know what the record is against the spread, but it’s probably 9 or 10 out of 12. (I don’t gamble, so I don’t pay attention to how the spread picks do.)

Either way, I have become significantly more accurate forecasting games with some actual data as opposed to just going on gut feeling and my limited experience watching all of these teams play.

With all that said, let’s see how these two teams stack up with respect to the same five statistical categories I have used to predict every game thus far:

• Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.096 | Michigan State – 1.058
• Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.891 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.268 | Michigan State – 1.181
• Free Throw %: UConn – 0.679 | Michigan State – 0.698
• Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.376 | Michigan State – 0.414

UConn holds advantages in four of the five statistical categories, although not significant advantages. Still, I expect a pretty strong pick by Game Predictor in the direction of UConn because of how the stats came out and by virtue of their seeding of their strength of schedule. Let’s see:

• Odds to Win Game: UConn – 60.0% | Michigan State – 40.0%
• Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 72.3 | Michigan State – 69.4
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +4): UConn – 53.6% | Michigan State – 46.4%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

Now, before I get into my thoughts on this game, I want to say a few very important things to all of the Spartans fans out there:

• The odds of Michigan State winning the Louisville game, according to Game Predictor, were 83.1% – 16.9%, with a confidence level of 4 stars. We know how that turned out.
• In my original bracket (which currently sits at 96.9% in the ESPN Bracket Challenge!) I picked UConn to beat Michigan State and eventually win it all over North Carolina.
• Bracket be damned, I will be rooting like crazy for Michigan State to win on Saturday.

However — and it pains me to say this — I do not have the same gut feeling about Michigan State beating UConn as I did about the Spartans defying the odds to beat Louisville.

Seeing as how this is a Midwest sports blog, and the Spartans have become my adopted team during this year’s tournament, let’s take a look at this game from an MSU perspective. Three reasons why they will win, and three reasons why they won’t.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat Connecticut

1 — Goran Suton is playing out of his mind right now

Goran Suton, as he was against Kansas and Louisville, will be the key for Michigan State. In both of my previous Michigan State previews I’ve discussed the importance of Raymar Morgan, but the reality has been that Goran Suton has been the perfect Robin to Kalin Lucas’ Batman. Suton scored 19 points and had 10 boards against Louisville after going for 20-9 against Kansas. The Spartans need similar production from him on Saturday, and there is no reason to believe he can’t provide it.

Here is what else he needs to do: draw Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket at times, but also get the ball in the post and be savvy enough to draw fouls on the UConn big man. Connecticut only lost three games this year, two of them to Pitt and one to Georgetown. In one of the Pitt losses by UConn, Thabeet only played 23 minutes before fouling out with 5 points, 2 blocks and 4 rebounds. Against Georgetown, Thabeet played 34 minutes but only scored 4 points and had 7 rebounds to go along with 7 blocks. If Michigan State can get Thabeet in foul trouble and/or force him to struggle on the offensive end, it will greatly improve their chances. Goran Suton has to play a key role in any Thabeet neutralization strategy, and he certainly appears up to the task right now.

2 — Michigan State will be playing before a home-court crowd in Detroit

East Lansing is only a 90 minute from drive Detroit, and obviously there are lots of Spartan fans in the city already. Not since Duke played in the Final Four in Charlotte (eventually losing the title game to Arkansas) has a team enjoyed this kind of Final Four home court advantage. And it’s the best of both worlds for the Spartans: they were great away from home this year, but now get to play away from home in an environment that will still be hostile for their opponent. As an underdog, the home crowd can help to give the Spartans momentum. If Michigan State can keep the game close, the crowd will be their best friend.

3 — Kalin Lucas is one of the most underrated great players in America

I realize that Kalin Lucas was named Big Ten Player of the Year, but I still do not think he gets the recognition he deserves. I’m a Big Ten fan, and I did not truly come to appreciate Lucas until this tourney run. All he has done in the last two games is outduel Kansas’ scintillating point guard Sherron Collins, and then completely control the pace and tempo of the Louisville game against physical guys that were bigger than him. Lucas is a great ball-handler, an excellent passer, and an outstanding shooter. He is great spotting up or off the drive looking to score or to dish. He is slight of frame, and will be going up against a tremendously large and physical defense in UConn, but his quickness can help him overcome this disadvantage. If he can get into the lane, draw Hasheem Thabeet, and find open cutters or spot-up shooters, Michigan State can get open looks. If the Spartans knock them down, they will stay right with the Huskies.

3a — Depending on if there are any more revelations in the UConn recruiting controversy, the Huskies could be distracted

I don’t think this will be an issue, and it won’t e if nothing new develops with this story. I think Jim Calhoun is perfectly adept at dealing with the inevitable questions he will get about this story, and UConn did not seem the least bit distracted by it in disposing of Purdue and Missouri. I throw this out only as a caveat, since I am making this prediction on Monday. There are plenty of 24-hour news cycles between now and Saturday for the dust to be kicked up and distractions to take hold; but in the end, I don’t think the potential recruiting scandal at UConn will influence this game one way or the other.

Three Reasons Why Connecticut will beat Michigan State

1 — Hasheem Thabeet is a presence unlike any Michigan State has dealt with this year.

Let’s be honest: Hasheem Thabeet is unlike any presence any opposing team has dealt with this year in college basketball. 13.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks per game are the numbers, but Thabeet obviously affects a basketball game in multiple ways. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he will turn Michigan State into a jump shooting team, while offering UConn the ability to score down low on the other end.

Michigan State will undoubtedly try to draw Thabeet away from the basket by putting Suton out high like they did against Louisville. When this happens, I would not be surprised to see the Huskies let someone like Jeff Adrien or Stanley Robinson match up against him. Adrien is 6’7 with a big body and Robinson is 6’9 with a long wingspan. They can take turns bodying Suton up and making it hard for him to shoot his jumper, while simultaneously allowing Thabeet to roam the paint and take away the drive.

Either way, one of UConn’s great strengths is their ability to match up defensively with anyone they play. Tom Izzo will have to be ready to adjust and Kalin Lucas will need to penetrate into the teeth of the defense to create havoc.

2 — AJ Price is every bit as good as Kalin Lucas

Price is one of my favorite players in the country, and another guy that I think is underappreciated. he averages 14.7 points and 4.8 assists per game and is the Huskies’ most consistent shooter from three-point range. You need excellent guard play to win in the Final Four, especially against a team with a player as good as Kalin Lucas, and AJ Price gives UConn that dimension. And as Kemba Walker showed against Missouri, he can step in and provide clutch plays as well.

I like Price’s confidence and his calm demeanor and he will not get rattled even if Ford Field sounds like the Breslin Center. He has gone toe-to-toe with the best point guards in the Big East, playing in some of the most hostile environments, and has proven that he is one of the best in the country.

3 — Michigan State is a better free throw shooting team, but UConn gets to the line more often

As you can see above, the Spartans hold a 69.8% to 67.9% advantage over UConn in free throw shooting. However, for the season, Connecticut made 641 free throws out of 943 attempts, while Michigan State made 577 free throws on 828 attempts. The Huskies are big and physical at every position and the Spartans have to be careful not to foul too often. As we saw during the Elite 8 (especially in the Louisville-MSU and Pitt-Villanova games) the refs are calling things tight in the tournament. Against Louisville, Michigan State was whistled for 22 fouls and the Cardinals shot 18 free throws to the Spartans’ 7. Yet, Louisville only shot 55.6% from the line.

I don’t think the Spartans will be so fortunate if there is nearly a 2:1 ratio in free throw attempts and the ratio favors UConn.

The Huskies hit 26-32 from the line against Missouri, and 19-30 from the line against Purdue. In both games they dominated in free throws made and attempted, and the disparity in free throws made was larger than the final margin of victory. This is a huge part of the winning formula for UConn and the Spartans must be mindful of limiting the Huskies’ free attempts at the line.

With the way the tournament is being called this year, and UConn’s size and style of play, I think this could ultimately be the Spartans undoing.

As I said above, I picked UConn to win it all before the tournament started, but I have thrown my full fan support behind Michigan State. I love Tom Izzo, I love the way Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton, and Goran Suton are playing, and I love the fact that the city of Detroit gets to cheer on the home state team as we culminate another thrilling NCAA Tournament.

I just don’t think Michigan State will get by UConn.

I think they will keep it close and beat the 4-point spread, and I certainly think that they can win — in fact, I will never again be surprised by a Tom Izzo team winning a game it is not “supposed” to win in the tournament. And while I think that the Spartans’ chances are better than 40% to win, as predicted by Game Predictor, I think the chances are only about 46-47%. So if you ask me who I think will win, I have to answer UConn.

I hope I’m wrong, and I’ll be cheering hard that I am. But I do think that the most fitting way for this season to end is with an all Big East championship game. I don’t know yet whether or not I am predicting Villanova to upset North Carolina, but I am predicting Connecticut to hold up their end of the bargain.

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Now that I’ve given you my keys to the UConn-MSU game, and my prediction, feel free to use the comment section for yours. I only chose three on each side, but there are plenty of other important storylines and matchups that will help determine this game. Spartan fans, your job is to please convince me why I’m wrong and give me more hope heading into Saturday.

This post will analyze the Louisville-Michigan State Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Fans in Indianapolis were treated to one outstanding game yesterday and one complete massacre. The victors of those two games, Louisville and Michigan State, will take the court Sunday afternoon for the right to advance to the Final Four as the Midwest Regional Champion.

A quick look back before we look forward to the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday:

Michigan State and Kansas duked it out until the final seconds Friday night before the Spartans emerged victorious. Sherron Collins was fantastic, as expected, but Goran Suton saved one of the best games of his career for a time when Michigan State really needed it. Suton scored 20 points and grabbed 9 rebounds in a tremendously clutch performance. I was right in my prediction that Michigan State would win, but wrong that they needed Raymar Morgan to have a big game. What they needed was someone to cancel out Cole Aldrich and Suton completed the task. You knew Kalin Lucas could battle Sherron Collins to a draw, which he did, and Michigan State has more experience throughout the balance of their roster than KU. In the end, that’s why they won.

And there isn’t really much to say about Louisville’s 103-64 win over Arizona. I predicted a Louisville win and cover, but I did not expect this complete a dismantling of the Wildcats. The Cardinals owned the game from the tip and never relinquished control. Five players scored in double figures, paced by Earl Clark’s 19 points to go along with 9 rebounds. The Cardinals shot 57.6% from the field, 48.3% from downtown (14-29), and 92.9% from the line. It was an incredibly dominating performance by a team that really seems to have hit their stride over the last month or so.

So what will happen on Sunday afternoon when Louisville and Michigan State take the floor at Lucas Oil Stadium? That’s exactly what we’re here to analyze. Here are the particulars:

Louisville-Michigan State Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Sunday, March 29
• TV Time: 2:20 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -7
• Over-Under: 138

In my original 2009 bracket, I had this as the Elite 8 contest out of the Midwest Region, with Michigan State as the choice to make the Final Four. Here is what I said about the Spartans then:

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

In the two weeks that have passed since I posted my predictions, the Spartans have beaten Robert Morris, and won close, hard-fought games against USC and Kansas. Louisville, by contrast, has been much more dominating against a less impressive slate of tournament opponents, beating Morehead State, Siena, and Arizona by an average of 22 points a game.

I can see why the line on this game is Louisville -7. The Cardinals are the #1 seed, they hail from the Big East and won both the regular season and conference title, and they have rolled through their three tournament opponents (although Siena put up a bit of a second half fight). Michigan State is the #2 seed, played in a conference that I still think gets less love than it should, and have won without being dominating.

If I was setting a betting line, I would favor Louisville too. I just don’t know that I am going to pick them.

But before I get to my prediction, let’s head over to the Game Predictor to see how it sees this game, based on the same statistical categories we used for all of the Sweet 16 games:

• Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.065 | Michigan State – 1.056
• Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.879 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.281 | Michigan State – 1.171
• Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.645 | Michigan State – 0.697
• Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.394 | Michigan State – 0.415

So, Louisville wins four out of the five categories, is the higher seed, had a tougher strength of schedule (I assume, though probably not by much), and is favored. It all adds up to the Cardinals probably being an overwhelming favorite in the eyes of Game Predictor.

And that is exactly how it came out:

• Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 83.1% | Michigan State – 16.9%
• Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 74.3 | Michigan State – 65.1
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +7): Louisville – 60.1% | Michigan State – 39.9%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

I have run every Sweet 16 game and every Elite 8 game but one (UNC-Oklahoma, to come later) through the Game Predictor. This is one of the most overwhelmingly lopsided predictions that has been returned.

And here is the frustrating part for me as I type this: rationally, I agree with the prediction.

Louisville’s metrics are better, they are more talented from top to bottom on their roster, they have a great coach who is certainly Tom Izzo’s peer, and they have passed the “eye test” during the tournament more impressively than Michigan State. So I completely understand why Game Predictor, and many others, think Louisville wins this game by a touchdown or more.

But I really, really, really want to disagree.

I like Tom Izzo and I’m a big fan of the Spartans’ backcourt of Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton. Plus, I am a Big Ten supporter through and through and would love to see Michigan State return some prestige to our recently struggling (but still underrated!) conference. Mix in the whole Rick Pitino-Kentucky connection, and I will without question be a huge Spartans fan on Sunday night.

However, I am trying to be as objective as possible in making these predictions. The Game Predictor has been a very powerful tool in doing so, and it is hard to ignore the overwhelming numbers above. I did go against Game Predictor during the Sweet 16, with some success (picking Villanova over Duke) and some failure (picking Syracuse over Oklahoma). I am trying to find something, anything to give me a shred of confidence to ignore game predictor here.

Louisville has only lost two games since the calendar turned to February, and has won 13 in a row. During that streak, only 4 of their games were decided by single digits. However, from February 2 through February 12, the Cardinals lost twice, at home to UConn and on the road against Notre Dame. Perhaps these two games offer a clue for what Michigan State can do to slow down this Louisville juggernaut (which I, admittedly, underestimated coming into the tournament.)

UConn dominated Louisville defensively, winning 68-51. Terrence Williams scored 26 for Louisville, but only five other players scored and the rest of the starters contributed only 10 points. Earl Clark was held to 2-16 shooting while Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith shot a combined 2-9. As a team, the Cardinals had an Assist/TO ratio of 9/17. Amazingly, UConn went 0-8 from downtown and had a porous 12/16 Assist/TO ratio themselves. But Hasheem Thabeet grabbed 11 boards, blocked 4 shots, and scored 14 points to control the paint.

The Notre Dame-Louisville game was a complete massacre in favor of the Irish. Slumping heading into the game, Notre Dame got 10-16 shooting from downtown by Kyle McAlarney and Ryan Ayers, plus 32 points and 17 rebounds from Luke Harangody. The Irish won 90-57. Louisville shot 39% from the field for the game, and was outrebounded 46-25. It was a thoroughly dominating performance by the Irish that led Rick Pitino to say the following:

“This victory, while humiliating to us, can propel them into something good,” Pitino said. “I’m happy for them. I’m really upset at our players. The way we practiced going into this game and the way we played tonight, our five men were just totally dominated.”

Of course, from that point on, the Louisville Rickpitinowhitesuits have not lost again.

So what can Michigan State take away from these two losses as they try to prepare a blueprint for beating Louisville? First, hope that Louisville comes out completely unprepared to play, like they did against Notre Dame. Assuming that won’t happen, considering a spot in the Final Four is on the line and all, here are some keys for Michigan State:

1 — Own the glass

In these two losses by Louisville, they were outrebounded 82-55. Michigan State has always been a very good rebounding team, but this year’s squad is not one of their best teams on the glass in recent memory. Goran Suton averages 8.0 rebounds a game, with no one else grabbing more than Raymar Morgan’s 5.4. And Morgan only had 1 rebound in 13 minutes of action last night against Kansas, when the Spartans won despite being outrebounded 31-27. UConn and Notre Dame dominated on the boards and won. Michigan State cannot give the Cardinals second chances and they must get a few offensive rebounds of their own.

2 — Make 3s and guard the 3

UConn did not need threes to beat Louisville, but they have Hasheem Thabeet down low and more scoring options than the Spartans have. Plus, Louisville had an off night themselves from downtown in that game. But we know that Louisville will shoot and make their fair share of threes, as they knocked down 299 on the season, with six players making 29 or more. At a minimum, Michigan State needs to battle Louisville to close to a draw from downtown, which means that Chris Allen, Kalin Lucas, and Durrell Summers (and even Suton) need to be shooting well. Last night, Louisville made 14 3s en route to dominating Arizona. If Michigan State can’t force Louisville to be around 25-30% from long range, and make some of their own, it could be a long night.

3 — Take away Terrence Williams or Earl Clark, if not both

It is probably pie in the sky thinking that Michigan State can shut down both Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, especially considering how well both have played recently. But in Louisville’s losses, these two guys typically struggle. Williams had 9 points in a loss to UNLV and just 5 in the Notre Dame loss. Clark had 5 and 11 in the UConn and Notre Dame losses, respectively. If Michigan State can harass Williams and Clark to force them into low percentage shots, Louisville’s explosiveness will be compromised. At the very least, the Spartans need to ensure that one of these guys struggles.

4 — Get to the line and make free throws

Want to know what the “hidden” difference was in the MSU-Kansas game? The Spartans went 16-17 from the line, while Kansas went 11-13. Michigan State has a decided advantage over Louisville in free throw shooting percentage on the season, and they must exploit this. Kalin Lucas needs to get into the lane and draw fouls, and the other Spartans must be strong down low, take contact, and then make their freebies. If Michigan State can steal 5-6 points from the line against Louisville, as they did against Kansas, it will got a long way towards keeping them in the game.

Now, obviously, doing all four of these things is far easier said than done. There are plenty of solid reasons why Louisville was the #1 overall seed in the tournament, and they have proven the committee right thus far in the tournament.

Here are two advantages that I think Michigan State has going into the game:

1. They are more battle-tested in close games against good teams thus far in the tournament, having pulled out tough Ws over USC and Kansas. Louisville has not faced a team as good as either so far. (Of course, they did win the Big East tournament right before the NCAA Tournament started…)
2. The carrot at the end of the stick for Michigan State is playing in the Final Four in their own backyard. I don’t really know how much of an advantage this is, as you have to think that Louisville is just as motivated to make the Final Four regardless of where it is being played. But sometimes upsets happen because a team comes together to play for a higher purpose. Detroit is a struggling city, both in terms of economics and the performance of their sports teams, and I am sure that a Spartan trip to the Final Four at Ford Field would be exciting and uplifting for everyone. If Tom Izzo can somehow use this effectively as an extra little nugget of motivation, it could help. How much? Probably not a lot. But if this is a close game, every little advantage will be meaningful.

Michigan State was my original Final Four pick, but I have felt less and less confident in that choice each time I have seen Louisville play in the tournament. And while this is a very solid Michigan State team, I do not view these Spartans as being in the upper echelon of Tom Izzo’s teams in East Lansing. They just seem to one be one player away for being truly elite. Unfortunately, in terms of talent and expectations, that player is on their roster in Raymar Morgan, but it is hard to count on him for any type of game-to-game consistency.

Update: Just caught on SI.com that Raymar Morgan is expected to play tomorrow despite the broken nose he suffered against Kansas. According to Tom Izzo, Morgan “did not play well before the injury and was even less productive after it.”

Everything, in my mind, points to a Louisville victory on Sunday. When you stack up all of the metrics, I think it would take a flight of irrationality and wishful thinking to predict a Spartan victory. So that is why I will suggest that if you are actually thinking of placing money on this game, you should just stop reading right here.

Because I’m sticking with my pick of Michigan State.

Call it an irrational man-crush on Tom Izzo, stubborn Big Ten support, or just an unexplainable gut feeling; but I think Michigan State finds a way to get it done (and obviously covers the spread). The Spartans reaching the Final Four in their own backyard just seems like one of those NCAA Tournament stories that is too compelling not to happen; and while Louisville appears to have most of the advantages heading in, Michigan State is absolutely still good enough to win.

Call me crazy, but I think they will.

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Earl Clark, Terrence Williams photo credit: Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images North America

This post will analyze the Kansas-Michigan State game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Now that the Thursday Sweet 16 games all have previews, it is time to turn our attention towards Friday. And from a Midwest perspective, it is pretty easy to see which game has the most relevance: Kansas-Michigan State.

The Jayhawks are attempting to defend their 2008 National Championship with a bevy of new faces, while the Spartans are looking to reach the Final Four in Detroit so they can battle for the 2009 National Championship in their own backyard.

I fully expected Michigan State to be here, as I predicted them to reach the Final Four before the tournament started. They have not disappointed, handling Robert Morris in round one and then outlasting a very talented USC team in round two.

My prognostication for Kansas was…well…not so good.

I predicted that Kansas would lose to North Dakota State in round one and that it would be the upset of of the tournament. While the game was competitive, Kansas controlled the final ten minutes and advanced. Then they beat Dayton to reach the Sweet 16 and further kill my bracket.

While both teams were tested in round two, they will each play perhaps their toughest game of the season on Friday night. Tom Izzo and Bill Self are two experienced coaches, each with National Championships on their resume, who took over proud programs from coaching legends and have maintained, if not improved, the success and stature of their programs.

None of the other seven Sweet 16 games feature the combined star power and success of the two coaches in this game. That is just one of many reasons why this is the game I am most looking forward to on Friday.

Here are the particulars:

Michigan State-Kansas Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Michigan State -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 138 1/2
• My prediction: Michigan State

With most of the other games that I have used the Game Predictor to analyze, I’ve had a pretty good idea about who would be predicted the winner. I did not think that Duke and Memphis would be quite as favored by the Game Predictor as they were against Villanova and Missouri, respectively; but, I can’t say I was necessarily surprised. As I head over to the Game Predictor now to enter the stats and find out its prediction for this game, I have no clue.

My best guess would be that Michigan State ends up favored by 3 or 4 points because they have a higher seed and probably played a tougher schedule. But who knows. (If that ends up being the Game Predictor output, don’t accuse me of cheating. I haven’t looked yet!)

Here we go, the Game Predictor analysis for the five statistical categories that we have used to analyze each of the other Sweet 16 games:

• Offensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 1.058 | Kansas – 1.080
• Defensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 0.925 | Kansas – 0.919
• Assist/TO Ratio: Michigan State – 1.167 | Kansas – 1.083
• Free Throw %: Michigan State – 0.692 | Kansas – 0.725
• Defensive Field Goal %: Michigan State – 0.414 | Kansas – 0.382

And now the expected winner, which — surprise, surprise — went to the higher seed despite the lower seed winning the majority of the five categories:

• Odds to Win Game: Michigan State – 55.1% | Kansas – 44.9%
• Most Likely Final Score: Michigan State – 69.5 | Kansas – 67.6
• Odds to Cover Spread (KU +1.5): Michigan State – 52.7% | Kansas – 47.3%
• Pick Confidence: 2 Stars

So, looks my prediction was pretty close to accurate — about one point off.

It is interesting to note that the pick confidence was only two stars. It was at least three or four in the predictions for the Thursday games, showing just how evenly matched these two teams are. However, when I look at what the Game Predictor says, I have to say that I agree — for the most part — on the Michigan State victory.

I think.

Maybe.

Sophomore point guard Kalin Lucas is the engine that makes Michigan State go. He is averaging 14.6 points and 4.5 assists per game on the season. He is an outstanding player and the matchup between he and Sherron Collins is going to be great. Collins, the main ballhandler for the Jayhawks, averages 18.9 points and 5.0 assists on the year. I wonder if Michigan State will put defensive stalwart Travis Walton on Collins? Either way, if you can shut down Lucas or Collins, you can seriously thwart the Spartans’ or Jayhawks’ attack. I look for both guys to rise to the occasion and have very good games battling mano-a-mano.

The X-factor for Kansas is Cole Aldrich. He can be spectacular, as he has been so far in the tournaments, totaling 36 points and 33 rebounds over two games. However, take note: Kansas’ last three losses all came in games in which Aldrich scored 8 points. Not coincidentally, those were his three lowest point outputs of the season and two of them came against non-tourney teams Texas Tech and Baylor. When Aldrich is playing well, he provides an excellent dimension to their attack and makes the Jayhawks one of the best teams in America. When he struggles, so does Kansas. Fortunately for Jayhawk fans, Aldrich has played pretty consistently outside of those few poor performances.

The X-factor for Michigan State is, as always, Raymar Morgan. He is as talented as anyone on the floor, but as Big Ten fans know well, you never really know when Raymar Morgan will actually show up. When Michigan State beat Kansas earlier this year, Morgan scored 13 points and had 8 rebounds. That should be an average night for him, but it is one of the best games he’s had since January 1. He has battled injuries and inconsistency, but Michigan State needs him to step up and be a force Friday night. He played well against Robert Morris but disappeared against USC. I don’t think Michigan State can repeat their victory over Kansas if Morgan gives them less than the 13-8 line he gave them on January 10th in East Lansing.

If it comes down to whose X-factor do I trust more? I have to say Aldrich.

When these two teams played in January, Michigan State won 75-62. Lucas and Collins both had great games, which I expect again on Friday night. The difference in the game was the production of Morgan. If he can offset Aldrich, as he basically did in January, then Michigan State has a great chance to win because I think they are deeper and can get scoring contributions from more sources than Kansas. If Collins and Aldrich are on their game, and if Kalin Lucas is forced to be a one-man show without a prominent sidekick to step up and shoulder more than just an ancillary piece of the burden, Michigan State is in trouble.

The more I think about this game, the less I am starting to trust Michigan State.

If it were me, I’d definitely take Kansas with the points. The Spartans won’t be playing this one in the friendly confines of the Breslin Center (thanks Jen!) and Kansas is a much better team now than they were then.

Straight up? It’s close, but I’ll stick with my original pick of Michigan State, but with a very low confidence level. I won’t be surprised either way.

I’ll only be surprised if this game does not come down to the final few possessions.

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