Fantasy Football Week 10 Big Names Who Could Disappoint

Jay Cutler

Yes, Jay Cutler is a star. He and the Bears are going up against the Lions on Sunday. The Lions are undefeated on the road, and they are bringing their fifth ranked pass defense into Chicago.

The two teams have already played once before, with the Lions winning 24-13. Cutler had 249 yards and a touchdown, but he couldn’t get the ball into the endzone in the second half. He should be able to have an average week, but if you have a backup who is poised for a strong week, it would not be a bad idea to bench Cutler.

Rashard Mendenhall

Mendenhall and the Steelers will be facing the Bengals, who own the second ranked rush defense in the NFL. He has only had over twenty carries once this season, against the Jaguars, as the Steelers usually look to Roethlisberger and the passing game for the majority of the offense production.

The Bengals have only had one real test this season, which came in a 13-8 loss to the 49ers. Their defense is great at shutting down the run, and this should not change on Sunday against the Steelers.

Steve Johnson

The Bills lost to the Jets 27-11 last week, and Johnson was held to three catches and no touchdowns. He has not caught a touchdown since Week 6, and has not had 100 yards in a game this year.

He and the Bills are playing the Cowboys on Sunday, who are middle of the pack in pass defense. He should have another average day, but he will still be without a 100 yard game after the weekend is over.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Under-the-Radar Players to Consider

Matt Moore

Moore and the Dolphins won their first game of the year last week against the Chiefs, in a game that saw Moore throw for three touchdowns.

They are facing the Redskins on Sunday, who own the 11th best pass defense in the league, but Moore has weapons in Brandon Marshall and even Reggie Bush out of the backfield. Moore will not have an Aaron Rodgers type day, but he can be a good replacement for a quarterback who could have an off week.

Roy Helu

Helu is not the main option in the backfield for the Redskins, but he has been able to put up points the last few weeks. He only had 41 rushing yards last week, but he had 14 receptions for 105 yards.

He is a great dual-threat for the Redskins, and can take advantage of the Miami defense. He is a great option to put in the RB/WR spot on the roster.

Josh Cribbs

The Browns’ offense has been tough to watch the last few weeks, but they are going up against the Rams at home this week.

Cribbs has had at least 50 yards and a touchdown in the last two weeks, and is now the main option at receiver for Colt McCoy. He should be able to find the endzone at least once, if not more this week against the 1-7 Rams.

In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.

What do I mean?

Well, not only do you have to keep track of all of your players -  every rookie, waiver wire guy, and breakout performer on both your regular teams and weekly fantasy football teams – but you also have to be able to forget about the past and the future.

Who cares if Fred Jackson was bad last week…how will he do THIS week?

I know LeGarrette Blount’s prognosis for the rest of the year looks bleak…but can he give me one more week of solid production?

Most importantly, you have to remember that nobody can be perfect; and no matter how much you know, sometimes the athletes just have bad days.  (Yes, Jerod…I’m talking to you.  I will take my Tim Tebow, Fred Jackson, and Julio Jones predictions with me on my way to a big time network.)

[Editor's note: FINE! GO! I presciently told some people to sit Vincent Jackson and DeMarco Murray with very solid reasoning last week...you think I'm worried about losing YOU and your successful picks? HA!]

In all seriousness though, making predictions is quite hard…especially when you know it’s impossible to hit every pick out of the park.  Fortunately, I was on the money last week, nailing almost 75% of my picks.

Once again, I have to thank Verizon for helping me get there.

As you know, Verizon has hooked me up with a pretty sweet deal.  As part of our agreement, they have given me a Droid Bionic, equipped with NFL Mobile.  No matter where I am, I have instant access (on unbelievable 4G LTE speeds) to every fantasy player on my team.

Once again, I can’t talk about this enough.  Every time a new piece of technology comes out, we all ask ourselves the same question: “Is this REALLY going to be worth it?”  Sometimes, the new creation is called the iPad…and it revolutionizes everything.  Other times, it’s the iPad 2…where a company basically changed a device’s color, put a sticker, and made you waste $600.  When I heard about 4G speeds, I didn’t think twice about it.  I figured it was all a scam, and a waste of money.  Boy was I wrong.  Every time I watch my wife pull out her old-school Blackberry, and simply try to pull up google, I laugh at her.  Then, I get annoyed.  In a world full of impatient people, 4G speeds have made me a happier person.

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As always, we begin this week’s post with a quick recap of last week’s picks.  (And also, don’t forget: the Raiders and Chargers play this Thursday Night, so make sure you set your rosters now!)

Last Week’s Picks: 16 for 22 (73 %)

• Hits: Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Nate Washington, NE Wide Receivers, Jake Ballard, and Scott Chandler
• Misses: LeGarrette Blount, Beanie Wells, Roy Helu, Plaxico Burress (by a half-yard), Dustin Keller, and Vernon Davis.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Quarterback

Start Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Dallas)

Is Dallas’ defense better this year?  Yes.

Has it regressed in recent weeks?  Yes.

Is their passing defense still below average?  Yes.

Is Fitzpatrick coming off of a rough week and ready to showcase his Harvard pedigree?  Who knows.  I think he is.  And I think that he’s a must-start this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 10 projection: 290 yards, 3 TDs.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Mark Sanchez – Not that he’s good…but New England’s pass defense is BAD.
• Philip Rivers – Very favorable matchup against a reeling Oakland defense.  Hey, you would be reeling too if your coach just traded TWO #1 draft picks for Carson Palmer.
• Tony Romo – He’s been pretty good at home this year, and Buffalo’s pass defense is atrocious.

Sit Em QB: Jay Cutler (v Detroit)

I actually REALLY like Jay Cutler.

I think he’s a really good quarterback, and he’s incredibly underrated for reasons that are completely unrelated to his actual play on the field.  Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been, let’s just say…below average this year.  And in Week Ten, he will be matched up against the Detroit defensive line that is coming off a bye.

Yikes.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 10 projection: 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  8 sacks.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Andy Dalton – He’s good…but Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better.
• Eli Manning – As I’m sure Jerod will note, San Francisco MIGHT have the best defense in the league…Eli might not be ELI-TE this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but I don’t want to take him out for Valentine’s Day dinner, get down on one knee, and give him a ring…as you seem to want to do. Fitzpatrick has actually thrown 3 TD passes in a game twice this year, but both came in the first two weeks of the season. The league has caught up to Buffalo since them. Fitzpatrick is a solid start at QB, but hold off the Washburnian marriage proposals.

I’m fine with sitting Cutler against Detroit. The Lions’ D-Line is at least 5X better and tougher than the Eagles’, so I can see this game going much, much differently.

As for Eli struggling against the 49ers, yes I think it will be tough for him. Still, I think Eli is a borderline top-10 QB this week because the way to beat San Fran is through the air – you do not run on them – and frankly, Eli deserves as much respect as any non-Aaron Rodgers QB in the league this year. So sit him at your peril.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Running Back

Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams (v Tennessee)

Coming off a bye, Williams will be fresher than he’s been all year.  He’s also playing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the run.  With an increased emphasis on stopping Cam Newton, I expect the Panthers to respond by pounding it out on the ground just like old times.

I actually like Jonathan Stewart this week as well, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to have a big game.

DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 10 projection: 140 total yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• All starters in the Kansas City/Denver game
• Michael Turner – Atlanta really likes to pound the ball on the ground against the Saints in order to try and control the clock.  Expect Turner to have a great game.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best (at Chicago)

He’s a little banged up, and he’s been slipping a lot lately.  The fact is, if not for a few lucky home run plays the last few games he played, Best has been a huge disappointment.  Plus, he only has 3 TOTAL TDs this season – even with Megatron’s unbelievable dominance and all.

I don’t trust Best against Chicago this week at all, even if he somehow plays.  Expect the Lions to throw it…a lot…and be successful.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 10 projection: 45 total yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• Knowshon Moreno – HE’S NOT GOOD!!!
• Patriots’ RBs – The Jets will make NE completely one-dimensional this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Loyal MSF fantasy readers, I cannot in good faith endorse DeAngelo Williams as a start in all but the most desperate of circumstances. Just know if you start him that DAW has had one – one – useful fantasy week all season (Week 5 v New Orleans…thanks to one big run). So trust Washburn at your own peril on this one.

As for Jahvid Best, well I can’t let this go without some lampooning, now can I? Jon, you realize you’re telling us all to sit a guy that is widely expected not to start anyway, right?

Best is dealing with yet another concussion, a problem he’s had since college. It’s sad, because he’s a talented player, but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to reach his potential because of injury.

Regardless, Best is a guy to consider dropping, not just sitting, so don’t give Washburn any bonus points next week if he correctly predicted a fantasy football invalid to be worthless.

And finally…sit Knowshon Moreno??? Really? Was that before or after Willis McGahee almost single-handedly spurred the Broncos to victory last week while Moreno had 8 total yards?

Come on Jon. You’re better than these picks; and I only feel comfortable honestly calling you out because I know our readers like you and respect you and will demand more from you.

Besides, honesty and candidness is the MSF way.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Wide Receiver

Start Em WR: Steve Breaston (Denver)

He’s quietly having a solid season, and Denver’s pass defense is very mediocre.

Look for Champ Bailey to cover Dwayne Bowe all day, and look for Breaston to run wild in the process.  This isn’t to say that Bailey will shut down Bowe; actually, I’m trying to point out that a mildly washed up Champ Bailey is Denver’s BEST defensive back, which is good news for KC WRs.

Steve Breaston fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Ten:

• Josh Cribbs – He is having a randomly solid season as well…and he should put up some nice numbers against St. Louis.
• Pierre Garcon – This week might be Indy’s best chance for a W all season.  Look for “the waiter” to have a solid day against Jacksonville.

Sit Em WR: Deion Branch (@ NY Jets)

At this point, if you are still starting New England wide eeceivers not named Wes Welker, you are DEFINITELY not staying current.  However, just in case, don’t start Deion Branch.

Darrelle Revis does NOT do a great job of defending the slot, so he will probably be matched up with Branch all day.  I shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 10 projection: No catches

Jerod’s thoughts:

I guess we don’t get any other potential sit ‘em WRs this week? Geez Jon; I know you’re distraught about the NBA lockout, but there is no reason to take it out on our loyal fantasy football readers.

Here you go folks…here are a few normally startable WRs that you may want to think twice about:

• AJ Green and the Bengals finally face a good defense, the Steelers. Be wary. The last elite defense Cincy faced was when San Fran shut Green down to the tune of 4 catches for 29 yards.
• You know I like Brandon Lloyd for the balance of the season, but I could see him struggling a bit this week in a low-scoring affair against Cleveland in which Joe Haden will surely be draped all over him.
• Mike Williams has six catches in each of his last three games for Tampa Bay, but he’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch over his last four. Last year’s TD machine isn’t producing TDs, and while I continue to profess patience with him, I’d be okay with you placing the burden of proof on him.

As for Jon’s picks, I think Breaston is a solid option at WR this week, and Deion Branch is a weekly wild card; but with Tom Brady and New England’s offense struggling, I too would sit Branch against the Jets and Revis.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (@ San Francisco)

San Francisco’s defense is VERY good, especially at shutting down opposing running games. Ballard should get a lot of touches in Week Ten as Eli will probably have to throw but still be under pressure much more than he was this past week. Plus, he is gaining trust with Big Play Ballard by the week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Ten:

• Brandon Pettigrew – Chicago has a rough time defending TEs.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark (Jacksonville)

May he Rest In Peace.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Hmm…well since Dallas Clark reportedly has a “significant leg injury” I suppose that’s a pretty good Sit ‘Em pick, though I hope you won’t take credit for that as a “hit” next week.

As for Ballard, I continue to like him, so I endorse that start ‘em pick, and I think Brandon Pettigrew could have success against the Bears like Brent Celek did last week.

As for the potential misses in Week 10, I continue to look at Jermichael Finley with skepticism because he just isn’t that involved in the Packers’ offense. He wouldn’t be in my top 12 TEs for this week, and I think you’d be well within your right to place a “prove it” tag on him.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Defenses

[Editor's note: the rest of this post is written by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: Miami Dolphins (v Washington)

The Dolphins have played better than their record, and their defense showed a lot in last week’s drubbing of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn’t a great team this year, but they can be explosive on offense. The Dolphins wouldn’t let them. This week they face a John Beck-led offense that could do nothing more than dump off to the running back last week against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins fantasy Football Week 10 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 or more turnovers

Other Start em D/ST units for Week 10:

• I know that Philly’s D has let you down this year, but against John Skelton and the Cardinals it could be very worthwhile to start them this week.
• The Detroit Lions get to face the porous Bears’ O-Line. Please tell me you aren’t fooled by the Eagles going sackless against them Monday night; the Bears O-Line remains not very good.

Sit Em Defense: Cincinnati Bengals (v Pittsburgh)

I just have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to exact revenge on Cincy for Sunday night’s loss to Baltimore. I think a major part of it is that I don’t totally trust the Bengals’ D yet. They are good, but are they great?

Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown can take full advantage of a good-but-not-great D, and I have a feeling that is what will happen here.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

• Houston’s D has been great this year, but I just have a feeling they will underperform your expectations against a desperate Tampa Bay team in Tampa.
• Stay away from the Saints’ and Falcons’ defenses in Week 10. I would not be surprised if 70+ points are scored in that game.

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There are your start em, sit em picks for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. You know the drill from here. Read ‘em, digest ‘em, and then ask about ‘em. The comment section awaits your lineup-specific questions below.

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Here is another video that encapsulates Cribbs’ adventures and frigid misadventures as a red carpet host. The best summation comes from Cribbs himself at the end of the video: “I need a drink.”

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It’s not so much that the interviews are ever particularly hard-hitting or revealing – they aren’t – but I enjoy watching the interaction between guys who are arch rivals on Sundays but who are friendly off the field. Below is a great example, courtesy of the fine folks at YardBarker.

Josh Cribbs is one of the greatest all-around special teams players in NFL history. Ray Lewis is one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history. Cribbs is a Brown and Lewis is a Raven, so they play eachother twice each season. Here, the great Cribbs gets a chance to speak with the even greater Lewis, and the two discuss why they expect a defensive battle in Super Bowl XLV.

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Most leagues have a 24-72 hour waiver period at the beginning of each week when no transactions can be finalized, giving everyone a chance to claim every player. If our waiver wire guidance column comes out after that time period, most of the good players are already claimed.

So this week we’re fixing that and now you can spend some time scouring the waiver wire while watching tonight’s Monday night game to see if there is anyone you want to claim.

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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The rules for appearing on this list are simple: the player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Since WR is typically the position most affected by the bye weeks, I’ve listed all of my WR waiver wire targets below. Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see my waiver wire targets at QB, RB, TE, and Defense.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: WR

Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland Browns (31%)

The Browns appear to be more committed to getting the ball into Cribbs’ hands on offense this year. He and Hillis have become the focal points. Cribbs has 8 receptions for 130+ yards over the last two weeks and he also gets carries in the Wildcat. Plus, there is always the chance for an explosive return (unless Cribbs’ new offensive role diminishes his return ability like it has for Devin Hester, a real possibility). Cribbs appears to be a solid flex play right now, especially in PPR leagues or leagues that count return yards.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys (30%)

It’s time to take notice of Roy Williams. One of the most disappointing receivers in all of football over the last few years has resurrected himself in 2010. Williams scored two TDs last week and should have three on the season (remember the last play of the Cowboys’ Week 1 game?).

Now, I wouldn’t get too crazy about a big day against the Texans – everyone is throwing on them this year – but Williams’ catch numbers have increased from 3 to 4 to 5 from Week 1 to Week 3 and Tony Romo clearly has more trust in him this season.

Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos (30%)

Lloyd makes me nervous because he’s been so inconsistent his whole career, but he now has two games already this season with 100+ receiving yards. Kyle Orton clearly trusts him and the Broncos clearly are going to throw, and throw often, in 2010. While Lloyd does have Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, and the rookie Thomas to compete with him for catches, he’s now won that competition in two of the first three weeks this year. Sometimes you have to trust what you see. If you need WR help, Lloyd has to be a guy on your radar screen right now.

Louis Murphy, Oakland Raiders (28%)

I mentioned him last week in this space…and he went out and caught 5 balls for 119 yards. He plays well with Bruce Gradkowski, and Oakland has the Texans on the schedule next. This is a guy to grab and start immediately.

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (11%)

Moore hasn’t been relevant from a fantasy perspective for almost two years now, so I’m not going to go crazy after one game. He is also a Saints WR, which means that his production is going to vary from week to week. But he does have a 900+ yard, 10 TD season on his resume (2008) so the potential is there. I’m not losing a waiver spot for him, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on.

As mentioned above, head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our complete list of waiver wire targets and to ask any questions.

May 27,2010-Berea, Ohio

Browns Player Quotes 5-27-10

(Cribbs, Davis, Haden, Hardesty, Mack, Massaquoi, Robiskie)

For Joshua Cribbs’ quotes, click this link

James Davis

(On what his expectations are for playing time this season)- “Right now, I just want to work my way in.  I just did come off a season-ending injury.  I just want to work as hard as I can to just get my health back and then be able to compete at that point.”

(On his solid play before his injury)- “I think that it gives me some confidence just going into the season that I’m able to see the speed of the game and I can adjust to it probably quicker than a lot of the rookies.  But, I still feel like a rookie, but I think I could probably adjust sense I was able to go through the preseason and play a couple games in the season, so I feel pretty good.”

Joe Haden

(On if his goal is to be a starter this season)- “I just want to get on the field, nickel, corner, whatever it takes.  I’m doing special teams too, they got me doing a whole lot of that.   I’m just trying to get on the field and hopefully, definitely I would love to, but I’m just trying to get on the field and help the team.”

(On if he has a high ceiling as a cornerback)- “It’s still real high because I’m just learning a whole lot of new stuff that I never knew, just as far as being a corner and as far as getting my hands in and off the line.  This is my fourth year now playing cornerback.  Having Sheldon (Brown) here playing nine years in the league and Eric (Wright) just doing what he does, they’re just giving me a whole lot more knowledge and coach (Jerome) Henderson is just telling me stuff.  I feel like I’m getting better every day.”

For rookie running back Montario Hardesty’s quotes, click here.

Alex Mack

(On having a full season of experience to use for this year)- “This year is a lot better.  Just having one year grasp of the offense really helps everything out.  I’m feeling pretty comfortable with it.  I’m not running tons of laps, which is always good.  I’m having a good time.”

(On his comfort level)- “More comfortable definitely.  I definitely have a better grasp of the offense and it’s kind of a second run through everything and just trying to get everything down pat.  It’s a lot better for me, I’m a lot more comfortable.”

(On if snapping the ball is easy)- “It’s one of the tougher things you have to do because there is a guy right on top of you trying to hit you and you have to move your feet, move your hands and do everything quick.  It’s pretty tough.”

Mohamed Massaquoi

(On the passing game clicking early)- “We are coming out here with a lot of energy.  We really wanted to make sure we addressed the passing game this offseason.  Guys are really coming out here trying to get better every day.”

(On what he is looking to improve on)- “Just being more consistent.  Just getting in and out of my routes cleaner, making sure I look the ball in before running it, eliminating the drops and just going out there and having fun day in and day out.”

(On talk of bringing in another veteran receiver)- “We can only control what we are doing right now.  We are a tight group, we push each other, we keep each other high-spirited when things aren’t going good and we are really out there for each other.  We are just trying to work and make sure we play the best football that we can.”

Brian Robiskie

(On what is different for him this year)- “I don’t think too much is different. I am just trying to work hard. I am trying to get better every day. I really just tried to come into this year and definitely build off the momentum we had going last year and do what I can to help us win games this year.”

(On if he did any extra work this offseason)- “Not really. I really just tried to do a lot of what I have always done and that was just to go back and look at some of the things I felt I could work on from the previous season. To come and spent time with a lot of the receivers, guys like Mohamed (Massaquoi) and Chansi (Stuckey), guys who have been here day in and day out, so I’ve just been working with them trying to get better.”

(On catching seven passes and if he reflected back on his season at all)- “I didn’t get caught up into, ‘Oh I caught seven balls,’ and the ups and downs of the season. I just looked at the progression I made. Like I said, we got started at the end of the season and I think a lot of us here were just looking to that, figuring out what were some of the things we did well and what we could do to carry it over into this season. I was just really focusing in on a lot of what I did last season and what I could do in this offseason and going into this year to help us win some more games.”

(On what feedback he is getting from the coaches)- “Just to keep working. I think everybody is getting the same thing. It’s the second week of OTAs. Guys are out here working hard. They have been stressing the same thing to us, day in day out be consistent, continue to work, continue to get better and if you get better, we get better as a team.”

For Head Coach Eric Mangini’s same day Press Conference, click here.

Be sure to check ProFootballinsight.net daily for all of your Cleveland Browns news and information.   Become a fan of ProFootballinsight on Facebook or follow fraschettik on Twitter for instant Cleveland Browns updates, notifications and more!

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight.net

Kurt@profootballinsight.net

Joshua Cribbs, quite possible the most complete and dominant special teams player in the history of the NFL, and Joe Thomas, the Browns’ left tackle for the next decade, have both been named to the Pro Bowl, according to numerous reports.

I’ll provide credit to the first place I saw the news of Cribbs’ and Thomas’ Pro Bowl selection: PFT.

Per a league source, left tackle Joe Thomas has been named to the AFC Pro Bowl roster for the third time in three NFL seasons.

Also, receiver Josh Cribbs will make his second Pro Bowl appearance.  He previously made it onto the roster in 2007.

Congrats to both players, who are extremely deserving of this honor. I challenge anyone to provide evidence why either Cribbs or Thomas should not be going to Miami the week before the Super Bowl.

And I shall take to task the first commenter on the PFT post linked above, who said the following:

Cleveland is better off trading both. They have bigger holes to fill besides a stinkin KR and a tackle. CJ Spiller, Colt Mccoy, drafting those 2 might help us a lot. Also trading for a WR like Terrell Owens, Dwayne Bowe would help a lot too.

This is such an asinine comment I almost feel silly countering it.

First of all, the only position on the field more important than quarterback is left tackle. The Browns have one of the league’s best and made the right call in selecting Thomas at #3 over the available Adrian Peterson.

As for Cribbs, not only do the Browns have the best special teams player in the history of the NFL (go ahead, counter that…I dare you), but he is the perfect kind of team-first, high-character guy to help lead a rebuilding process. If attitude were dollars, Cribbs would already be paid $10+ million per year. As it is, he is due a fat new contract, which should be forthcoming sometime soon.

Colt McCoy? Please. He’s a career backup. CJ Spiller? A very talented back who could easily become Reggie Bush at the NFL level. T.O.? Dwayne Bowe? Sure, both would help out at wide receiver, but neither would be a difference maker for the Browns.

Clearly the Browns need a QB, more talent at WR, and better talent overall on defense. But no one can dispute that Joe Thomas and Joshua Cribbs are part of the solution.

Congrats to both on being named to the Pro Bowl, a well-deserved honor for each.

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* – Joe Thomas photo credit: Tracy Boulian/The Plain Dealer via The Plain Dealer

* – Joshua Cribbs photo credit: Gregory Shamus, Getty Images via FanHouse

Sitting at 1-11, the conventional wisdom was that Eric Mangini was basically coaching out the string, essentially a placeholder for whoever the Browns future “football czar” were to choose to be the new head coach.

After two straight victories – importantly, one of them against arch-nemesis Pittsburgh – two of the most influential voices in Browns Nation have now publicly pledged their support for Mangini.

None other than Joshua Cribbs and Jim Brown.

Here are a couple of excerpts that are extremely telling of just how much better the Browns have played over the last two weeks:

From Peter King’s MMQB column today, which included the following Josh Cribbs comments on Eric Mangini:

I asked Cribbs Sunday after the game: If you polled all the players on the team, what would be the vote on whether to keep or get rid of Mangini?

“I think it’d be unanimous,” Cribbs said. “I think the guys would definitely want to keep him. You can’t judge coach Mangini on one year. The camaraderie in the locker room is great. You hear things in the media about coach Mangini being too tough on us. But I think we’re building something here, and I think the players are behind him.”

And from James Walker’s AFC North blog on ESPN.com, which included the following Jim Brown comments on Eric Mangini:

Following Sunday’s win, Brown, an executive advisor for team owner Randy Lerner, said Mangini should be back in 2010. Brown believes the team is improving with “a lot of young people who we don’t know who are playing good football.” Brown also said he didn’t want to contradict his boss.

I cannot think of two people more important for Mangini to have on his side than Brown and Cribbs.

Brown is obviously the most legendary Brown of all, and someone whose word still carries immense influence both inside and outside of Berea.

Cribbs is the most beloved and decorated current Brown, whose effort and selflessness endear him to everyone. Add in the fact that he now holds the NFL record for career kickoff return TDs, and is the most complete and explosive special teams player in the NFL, and he has emerged as a bona fine NFL superstar.

Remember earlier this year when the Browns looked listless as they lost game after game after game in embarrassing fashion? And remember when Jamal Lewis was extremely critical of his coach publicly?  I think it is now fair to ask if perhaps Lewis was a lone wolf, balking at a routine that was different from what he had known under more laid back regimes in Baltimore and under Romeo Crennel.

Jamal Lewis was placed on IR on December 2nd. At the time, the Browns were 1-10. Since then, the Browns are 2-1 after battling the hottest team in the NFL, San Diego, to a 7-point defeat, and then beating the Steelers and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks.

I’m not close enough to team to draw any sort of direct correlation between Lewis’ absence and the drastically improved play and attitude of the team (at least from my vantage point), but I do think that the timeline is interesting.

Either way, Mangini’s job status has gone from a foregone conclusion to very much an unknown – and rightfully so. The Browns were dreadful for the first three months of the season, but the fact that they are winning games in December with so many starters injured has got to come back to the head coach in the form of credit. Doesn’t it?

Had the Browns simply played out the strong and continued losing badly, the decision for the future czar would have been easy. But if the Browns get to four or five wins and Mangini has Jim Brown, Joshua Cribbs, and the majority of the locker room in his favor, he just may have done enough to buy himself another year.

And with the way the team has played the last two weeks, I no longer think that would automatically be such a bad idea.

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* – Eric Mangini photo credit: Sports Full Circle

A fan at Cleveland Browns Stadium for the Monday Night debacle against the Ravens, held up a sign that said it all: “Hey, Baltimore, can you take this team, too?”

After suffering through another day of depression and frustration over the state of these Cleveland Browns’ pretenders, (remember, the Browns did not “come back” in 1999; late owner Al Lerner accepted a nameless, nearly talent-less expansion team and named it the Browns), Browns fans’ hope the end of the nine-game Coach Eric Mangini Era is near.

Even though Browns owner Randy Lerner said he would not fire his incompetent, arrogant little field general and dictator this season, a seriously injured Cribbs would have had Mangini packing, as well as his clueless offensive (yes, his lame playcalling is offensive) coordinator Brian Dabold.  Cribbs, a brilliant kick-off and punt return man, is a fan favorite and heart of the team.

It was in the final seconds of the 16-0 game that Cribbs was blindsided and knocked to the turf. This came after lateraling the ball to a teammate in a desperation mad dash to score six points. (Why? Because losing 16-6 would have looked better?)

The nearly empty stadium became even more silent as Browns and Ravens players surrounded Josh while he was lifted gently onto a stretcher. Cribbs was released Tuesday morning from the hospital, and Mangini, admitted in a conference call (yes, Coach opted to skip his regular face to face press conference)that he should not have allowed the hook-and-ladder play.

Brady Quinn did what he could with Daboll’s calls for five-yard bubble passes, a non-running game and receivers who let the ball slip through their hands. Game analysts figured Quinn had 2.5 seconds to take the snap, read the defense, find an open receiver and throw the ball — before getting leveled by Baltimore’s D.

After the last interception, Quinn tackled the wrong Raven too low, knocking his feet from under him and causing serious injury. This led Baltimore defense captain Ray Lewis to call Quinn out for the dirty hit. Quinn said he didn’t mean to hurt anyone — and I believe him.

Brady was so distraught, he probably didn’t know who had the ball.

Quinn has got to be lobbying his agent for a ticket out of Cleveland. Back-up quarterback Derek Anderson is also demoralized by Mangini and his schizophrenic quarterback shuffling.

The result is, neither Quinn nor Derek Anderson can move the offense into the red zone. Their egos are bruised, their confidence shot and trade value practically nil.

After a short practice week, the Browns head to Detroit to face the Lions on Sunday. (The first team to score a touchdown, wins the game.)

There is one flickering light at the end of the tunnel: Word came down from Berea Tuesday that Randy Lerner met with former Seattle Seahawks Head Coach Mike Holmgren about a director of Browns operations position, with authority over personnel — including the right to fire the coach.

One can only hope.

But nothing the offense did (or didn’t do) could match the collective fear and frustration felt when Josh Cribbs needlessly went down on the last play of the game and then had to be taken off the field on a stretcher.

Let’s forget for a moment how asinine it was for the team to run a “hook and ladder” play with the game out of reach and get to the important stuff: this morning’s Josh Cribbs injury update.

The latest Cribbs injury update, according to the Plain-Dealer, is that Cribbs was taken to the hospital immediately after last night’s game and is being evaluated for a concussion.

He was reportedly placed on the stretcher as a precautionary measure, but was said to have been laughing and joking with teammates as he was carted off the field. He was also reportedly experiencing full movement in his extremeties.

I’m not sure there are words for how relieved this news will make Browns fans, his teammates, and the organization.

Not only is Josh Cribbs the only bright and exciting spot for the Cleveland Browns right now, but he is about as high a character guy as there is. For example, this past week it was reported that Cribbs attended the senior night for the son of his former coach at Kent State, who is now deceased. Cribbs accompanied his former coach’s wife as she walked her son out on Senior night.

That’s Joshua Cribbs for you.

So while you never want anyone to get hurt during a sporting event, Cribbs is the kind of guy that you really don’t want to see get hurt. He plays his heart out on every play of every game, regardless of whether the Browns have a chance to win or not, and he embodies everything that we want our athletes to be in terms of providing a positive example for young people to follow.

You’d think that kind of thing would be rewarded by the pathetic organization for which he plays — the same organization that professes it wants to build around “high character” players — but so far Cribbs does not have a new contract. And before you argue and say that he should play out his current deal, consider for a quick second what happened last night.

In the NFL, everything can be taken away from a player in a split second. They have to take care of themselves and their families by using leverage when they have it. The Browns organization will continue on if Josh Cribbs ever gets seriously injuried; his career will not.

I have no problem with Cribbs seeking a new deal, especially when he obviously deserves it and when he says Randy Lerner promised him one.

Anyway, sorry…I didn’t mean to go off on a tangent there. Last night was just a reminder of how important Cribbs is to the Browns and how much he needs to be a centerpiece of the rebuilding project.

I don’t know why he was even on the field in that situation. Actually, I take that back…all it takes is one glance over to the sideline to know exactly why such an idiotic call would be made.

Bud Shaw put it best at the Plain-Dealer website this morning in his article about Josh Cribbs’ injury:

Three seconds left on your half of the field, down 16 points, why do anything except take a knee?

Why the Browns ran a fire drill play that ended with Josh Cribbs carted off the field because his head didn’t swivel fast enough goes into the unanswerable file in an unfathomable season, Eric Mangini’s first and perhaps only here.

That’s not the question being asked around the rest of the country, no doubt. The question being asked around the rest of the country after the Browns 16-0 loss to Baltimore: “Any chance there’s an Antique Roadshow marathon we could watch instead?”

But given the obvious doubts some Browns have about their head coach as voiced by Jamal Lewis last week, the final play of a forgettable game is another log on the three-alarm fire licking at Mangini.

I’d like to, I really would…I’m trying to stay as positive as possible…but I cannot disagree at all.

Also read this update on Josh Cribbs’ injury from Waiting For Next Year, with some quotes from Brady Quinn and Mohammed Massaquoi.

Update: Cribbs has been released from the hospital according to FoxSports.

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* – Josh Cribbs photo credit:Tony Dejak/Associated Press via The Plain-Dealer

From today's Monday Morning Quarterback from Peter King:

Posted via email from Jerod’s Blog

As little underlying support there is, these Josh Cribbs rumors are not fun

He is exactly right.

Who knows how legitimate the Cribbs-to-Miami or Cribbs-to-whomever talk is, but there is nothing fun or exciting at all about the Browns’ clear fan favorite being mentioned in the same sentence as the word “trade.”

All the rumors about Cribbs got me to thinking: is he the second most untradable sports figure in Cleveland?

(I think we all know who the first is.)

Let’s think about it for a second.

Is there anyone on the Cavs right now other than LeBron that Cleveland fans have a really strong connection to? I would suspect that Big Z is in that category, but considering his age and contract, I’m not sure Cavs fans would be too up in arms if there was a parting of the ways soon.

Shaq, despite his profile and the excitement surrounding his arrival, has yet to play a regular season game for the Cavs. There has been no time for a connection to develop.

Do you see anyone else on the Cavs roster with 1/10th the fan love of Josh Cribbs? I don’t.

Let’s then move on to the Indians where, unfortunately for Indians fans, two fan favorites have already been dealt away over the past two years: C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee. I would definitely have placed Sabathia right there with Cribbs, if not above.

Who else on the Indians roster might qualify in Cribbs’ class?

Fausto Carmona and Travis Hafner were on their way a few years ago, but then decided to suck and have fallen out of favor. The only person who could legitimately enter the conversation is Grady Sizemore.

Sizemore is a very, very good player, but for years I have felt that he was somewhat overrated.

Don’t get me wrong: he’s among the top 25-30 players in baseball, especially when you factor in his tremendous defensive ability. I just don’t consider him among the elite of the elite as some people do.

When it comes to fan love, however, Sizemore does pretty well for himself.

Guys like Grady because he’s a 30-30 threat who can help their fantasy team and has been the one consistent offensive force on the Indians’ revolving door of a lineup over the past few years. And the ladies like him because, well…I guess because he has dimples, or something? (Money, you idiot…it’s the money! And the shirts…)

And then we get to the Browns, where talented former 1st round picks like Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards have recently been traded away without much fan consternation.

The only player whose popularity could approach Cribbs’ is that of Brady Quinn. However, considering Quinn’s underwhelming performances when given an opportunity, it’s not like the majority of Cleveland fans honestly feel like they have a prettier version of Bernie Kosar sitting on the bench right now.

In fact, while there is a subset of Browns fans who would be pissed and upset if Quinn got traded, there is no such subset of fans who would be pissed and upset to see Cribbs go.

ALL Browns fans would be devastated to see Josh Cribbs gone. ALL OF THEM.

Every single one.

If you can find me a single Browns fan who would be even remotely excited about the loss of Josh Cribbs, I will grow a mustache, name it Zastudil, and interview it on a podcast.

Seriously.

For all of the ill will that Eric Mangini and George Kokinis have generated since their arrival, it would pale in comparison to the fan backlash that would result from trading Joshua Cribbs for anything less than a franchise QB or an already established superstar defensive player.

Cribbs is the one guy who gives us all hope every time he touches the ball. He has been the heart and soul of the organization since he became a star in 2007. He has continued to play hard this year despite little hope of team success and little progress on a contract extension that was promised to him.

There is not much good about the Cleveland Browns right now, but whatever ounce of good exists is manifested almost entirely in the play of Josh Cribbs.

You can get away with trading malcontents like Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards. Browns fans understand that. And if you’re going to be cheap, stupid-line-in-the-sand hardasses about Cribbs’ contract, and not pay the guy what he deserves, then I hope the Browns do trade him…for Cribbs’ own sake.

Josh Cribbs deserves to play for an organization that understands and respects his value to the team, fans, and city. Mangini and Kokinis just need to realize that said organization needs to be Cleveland, with no excuses.

I don’t care if he’s “just a special teams player.” Watch the damn games, watch the effort, watch his teammates respond to him, assess the value of what you’d have to pay him for the myriad tangible and intangible positives he brings, and watch the fans stay interested in the miserable overall product because of this exciting player with the never-say-die attitude and never-quit motor.

Josh Cribbs is a special player. Period.

I’m not saying pay him like a #1 WR or a top-flight defensive lineman or anything like that. Just pay the guy what he deserves for his value on the field and his value to the organization, with his value to the fans being a major part of that.

Pay him, and don’t trade him.

I’m coming to Cleveland next weekend for the Packers game. If Josh Cribbs isn’t there too, I am not going to be happy. Not one bit. I’ve never booed my own team at home — and I’d never boo the players so long as they’re giving effort — but I’d boo Eric Mangini as hard and as loud as I possibly could if Cribbs is not around.

And something tells me the other 73,200 people at Cleveland Browns stadium would join me.

Luckily, it sounds like the Cribbs rumors are just that: rumors. And from everything I’ve read, the Browns are not actively shopping Cribbs. They are merely listening to offers considering Cribbs’ desire for a new contract.

Fine. I understand that…so long as it results in an amicable resolution in which Cribbs gets a new contract and we all have some security that our favorite player will be around for a while.

Update: Cribbs’ agent thinks that the Browns are being unfair by not trading him or redoing his contract.

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* – Grady Sizemore photo credit: Luello.com

* – Joshua Cribbs photo credit: AP Photo/Keith Srakocic

After opening the season 0-3, Cleveland battled back to win three out of its next five games, ultimately sitting at 3-5 as they prepared to take on the Denver Broncos at home on Thursday Night Football. 

Leading 23-10 early in the 3rd quarter, it appeared that the Browns would improve their record to 4-5 and salvage some semblance of an opportunity to make a late season charge at the playoffs.

The Broncos were only able to muster a field goal in the 3rd quarter, meaning the Browns were nursing a 23-13 lead as the 4th quarter began. I was at the Browns Backers that night, as I usually am during Browns games, and for the first time since the opening week of the season, I felt genuine optimism.

We win this game, we’re right back in this thing, was the thought permeating the room.

We know how that turned out.

Over the next 15 minutes of play at Cleveland Browns Stadium, the door was shut on the Browns’ 2008 season for good. You all remember what happened: Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald forgot how to play cornerback, and another chapter in the over-hyped legend of Jay Cutler was written.

Cutler threw 3 TD passes in the 4th quarter, with the 93-yarder to Eddie Royal that started the barrage seeming to break the Browns’ back, even though Cleveland still led 23-20. Cutler would add subsequent TD passes to Daniel Graham and Brandon Marshall on his way to 447 passing yards on the evening.

Despite a solid game from starter Brady Quinn, and the best rushing performance of the year for Cleveland (160 yards, 5.5 yard average), the Browns ended the night a demoralizing 3-6. They would win the next week at Buffalo before proceeding to drop their last six games of the season.

Would 2008 have turned out any differently had the Browns been 5-5 instead of 4-6 after Week 10? Who knows. Probably not. But I know one thing: the sting of last season would have been a little less severe had that 4th quarter embarrassment against the Broncos not occurred.

Sunday afternoon, the Browns will have their opportunity for vengeance.

Here are the particulars:

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

• Browns-Broncos Date: Sunday, September 20
• Browns-Broncos Time: 4:15
• Browns-Broncos TV Network: CBS
• Browns-Broncos Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Beuerlein
• Browns-Broncos Point Spread: Broncos -3.5
• Browns-Broncos Over-Under: 37.5
• StubHub: Browns-Broncos tickets as low as $42!

Last week, my preview and analysis of the Vikings-Browns game unfortunately proved prophetic.

The Vikings are quite possibly the worst matchup in the NFL for the Browns, and it showed on Sunday. Cleveland played very well in the first half, but the Browns’ inability to run and stop the run doomed them to a disappointing second half.

This week, my Browns preview will not be nearly as pessimistic. Unlike last week, when I listed out the three reasons the Browns would lose and then provided three things that had to happen for them to even have a chance, this week will be much easier.

I’m giving you three reasons why the Browns will win on Sunday. Because they will. Chime in with your prediction, then read mine.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Browns-Broncos Analysis

Three reasons the Browns will win on Sunday

1 – The Browns’ biggest weakness, run defense, is marginalized by Denver’s unproven rushing attack

The Broncos have long been known as a running team, ever since Terrell Davis began the legendary run of 1,000-yard backs that Mike Shanahan seemed to pluck off of the trees outside the Broncos’ practice facility. There was Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis and Mike Bell, and on and on and on.

Their rushing prowess also led to consistent success and many playoff berths for the Broncos, with the franchise winning at least eight games every year between 2000-2006 after winning 37 games in three years between 1996-1998.

But Denver has not had a 1000-yard back since Tatum Bell ran for 1,025 yards in 2006. Not coincidentally, they haven’t had a winning season since 2006. Also not coincidentally, 2007 is the season Jay Cutler took over as their quarterback.

The end result is that by last season, the Broncos were 12th in the league in rushing at 116.4 yards per game. That is actually impressive when you consider that they did not have a back eclipse 343 yards, with Shanahan employing a revolving door of Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, and others. (Note: the picture above is rumored to have been taken after Shanahan was shown the Broncos’ final 2008 rushing statistics. I cannot confirm this, however.)

The Broncos’ transition from a running team to a passing team was essentially complete at the end of last year, with the results obvious: a 15-17 record during the 2007 and 2008 seasons with no playoff berths.

In 2009, Jay Cutler has been replaced by Kyle Orton and the Broncos are counting on a rookie first round draft pick, Knowshon Moreno, and a career backup, Correll Buckhalter, to carry the load on offense. 

One would think that the Broncos’ Week 1 matchup might have offered a chance for the running game to get going early in the season. The Cincinnati Bengals were 21st in the league in rushing defense last year. However, the Broncos’ offense struggled all day, netting a total of 302 yards with Buckhalter and Moreno combining for just 65 yards on 16 carries.

Certainly, I and everyone else expect them to have more success running the ball against the Browns, a team that few have been worse than over the past few years at stopping the run. But the Broncos will not be able to run roughshod all over Cleveland like the Vikings did.

Minnesota blew the Week 1 game open in the second half because Adrian Peterson is an absolute beast. In the first half, Cleveland actually played very well and contained the Vikings on the ground. On Sunday, I expect the Browns defensive performance to be much closer to the first half of Week 1 as opposed to the second half.

I’m sure that Denver will get 110-120 yards on the ground. The Browns are not going to miraculously become a good defense against the run overnight. But I do believe they will be able to contain the Broncos enough, like Cincinnati did, to make Kyle Orton beat them.

I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton, which me leads to reason #2 why the Browns will win on Sunday…

2 – I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton

The Broncos beat the Browns last year because Jay Cutler, despite his uneven record as a starting quarterback, is supremely talented and capable of getting into a zone that few QBs in the NFL can match. Cutler also had a great rapport with WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, and it was certainly on display last season.

That said, Cutler is douchy, inconsistent, and has poor leadership skills, which in my mind makes him a hugh risk as a franchise QB. Obviously though, none of that mattered in the 4th quarter last year.

Kyle Orton, on the other hand, is not the type of quaterback who can beat you on his own.

In Week 1, Orton finished the game with solid numbers: 17-28, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs. But take away his fluky touchdown pass to Brandon Stokley that won the game, and this is what his numbers would have been: 16-27, 146 yards, 0 TDs.

Against Cincinnati’s defense.

I realize the irony of a Browns fan criticizing another team’s offense, but the Broncos offensive attack just does not scare me. If the Browns can contain the Broncos’ running game, which I believe that we will, it will put the onus on Kyle Orton to win the game. Despite the fluky madness that ended last week’s game — for which Orton gets no credit, sorry — I don’t believe Kyle Orton will be able to get the job done.

The truth is that I see the Broncos and Browns as very similar teams. Both teams’ running games have potential, but have shown nothing yet. Both teams have pedestrian QBs that are incapable of winning games on their own. Both teams also have defenses with some obvious strengths, but also some very obvious holes and debilitating weaknesses.

So, considering that the Broncos are playing at home, what leads me to believe that the Browns will win on Sunday?

3 – Sunday’s game will be a close one in which special teams make a huge difference; the Browns have the decided advantage in this area.

No discussion of the Browns’ special teams can begin anywhere but with the best special teams player in the NFL: Joshua Cribbs.

In case anyone needed a reminder of Cribbs’ greatness, he took a punt 67 yards to the house last Sunday against the Vikings. For his career, Cribbs averages 11.1 yards per punt return and has score twice. On kickoffs, Cribbs averages 26.3 yards per return and has scored five times.

Eddie Royal, who handles the return duties for Denver and did so last year as well, has yet to score in his young career and falls short of Cribbs’ averages in both areas.

Kicker is another area where the Browns have an advantage.

Phil Dawson has made of 82.9% of his kicks over his successful career, with numerous clutch game-winners over the past two seasons. He may not have the strongest leg in the NFL, but he’s 12-14 between 40-49 yards over the past two seasons and did kick a 56-yarder last season. 

Matt Prater, who handles placekicking duties for Denver, is only a 70% career kicker despite going 2-2 in Week 1 on a couple of long kicks. Last season, he was only 5-11 from 40-49 yards.

In a close game, I’ll take my chances with our far more proven kicker.

The Browns also have the more consistent punter and punt coverage unit. In 2008, Dave Zastudil averaged 45.5 yards per punt, pinned the other team inside their 20-yard line on 30.7% of his kicks, and the Browns gave up an average punt return of only 7.3 yards, good for an overall net of 42.3. Also, 43 of Zastudil’s punts were fair caught.

Brett Kern handles the punting duties for Denver, and while he averaged 46.7 yards per kick in 2008, he only pinned the opposing team inside its 20-yard line on 28.3% of his kicks. Additionally, the Broncos gave up 4.5 more yards per punt return (11.8) than the Browns, which resulted in a net punt average of 39.6 for Kern.

Here is the best thing about Kern from a Browns perspective: he kicks it long but they are returnable. Whereas only 42.6% of Zastudil’s punts were returned in 2008, 60.8% of Kern’s were returned. This only accentuates our advantage in the return game and makes Cribbs even more of a factor.

In a game between two subpar offenses, the hidden yardage of the return game could be huge. Points will most likely be at a premium, and the team can put itself in the best position to score with solid field position will most likely end up on top.

Hence why I believe the Browns will win on Sunday.

Browns-Broncos Prediction

I don’t think that Denver is a very good team this year. I’m not sure that the Browns are a good team either, but I do believe we are better than the Broncos.

What does give me a little bit of pause in picking Cleveland to win this Sunday is the fact that the game is in Denver, which has always been a tough place for opponents to play. Between the rowdy fans, the altitude, and the typically strong teams Denver has had, coming into the Mile High city and getting a W has never been easy.

But after the huge withdrawal that the Broncos made from the football karma bank last week, improbably snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, they are ripe for a little payback in Week 2. Add this impending karmic payback to the payback the Browns will already have on their minds after last season’s 4th quarter debacle, and Browns fans have yet another reason to believe.

Last season, the Browns outplayed the Broncos for 45 minutes and then simply ran into a 15-minute 4th quarter buzzsaw that could not be stopped. That threat is now gone with Jay Cutler replaced by Kyle Orton.

I think Sunday’s game will be much more like the first three quarters of the 2008 matchup than it will be like the final quarter. In fact, it will probably even be a little closer.

But if you take away that final quarter, the Browns would have won in ’08.

One year later, with special teams being the difference, the Browns will finish the job.

Take the Browns and the points but understand that you won’t need them:

Cleveland Browns 17 | Denver Broncos 16

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* – Jay Cutler in Browns-Broncos ’08 photo credit: Duncan / AP via New York Daily News

* – Joshua Cribbs photo credit: Bleacher Report

* – Phil Dawson photo credit: Waiting For Next Year

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009′s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

• Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
• Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
• Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
• StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
• StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

• The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
• The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007′s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

• Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
• James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
• The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

• Brandon McDonald led the team with five
• Sean Jones had four
• Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
• Mike Adams had two
• Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

• Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
• Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
• Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

*********

* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

To view the complete report on the Brandon Marshall-to-the-Browns rumor, hop on over to the good folks at Pro Football Talk.

(For the record, hopefully you understood the sarcasm of the first paragraph. Pro Football Talk is decidedly NOT a blog that typically receives such treatment anymore (but we are!), although they did at one time. Now, they are striking deals with NBC and basically encroaching more and more on the NFL universe every single day — and I mean that as positively as possible. Congrats to Florio for the recent announcement of the deal with NBC. We are quite pleased that “suitable nodes” will no longer be part of the PFT lexicon.)

Now, back to this Brandon Marshall-to-the-Browns trade rumor.

I believe that Florio is hearing such whispers, I just don’t believe that the rumor will ever come to fruition, nor that it should.

First, I just don’t see Brandon Marshall being a “Mangini guy.” Granted, I only have peripheral knowledge of what a “Mangini guy” is from what we’ve seen through the press, which of course is very little because Mangini is decidedly a “Belichick guy.” However, what I believe that we have learned is that Eric Mangini is a coach who values character, loathes distractions, and employs a system that demands cerebral players and desires versatile players.

We also know the following about the Browns: they are thin on experience and proven play-making ability at the WR position and are still embroiled in a contract spat with the Cribbs.

Still, I just can’t see this being a move that Eric Mangini and George Kokinis would want to make.

Based solely on reputation and my own admittedly subjective opinion, Joshua Cribbs is cut from a higher cloth of character than Brandon Marshall. Additionally, Cribbs has played multiple positions in the NFL and was a QB in college. Just based on the diversity of his experience alone, I think it’s reasonable to assume that Cribbs is a more cerebral player overall than Brandon Marshall. And while Marshall may know receiving better, Cribbs clearly has versatility in his corner.

As for distractions, yeah Cribbs has gone public with his desire for a reworked contract, but he also participated in camp most of the way through the squabble. Marshall, on the other hand, has unresolved (though disputed, by him) issues with domestic violence that were recently chronicled on Outside the Lines. And Marshall is clearly not as amenable as Cribbs. Something set Marshall off and he, essentially, “took his ball and went home.” Marshall recently cleared out his locker so serious was he about geting out of Denver, with Jay Cutler’s departure ostensibly being part of the reason.

Update: Just caught this recent post on PFT regarding a statement by Brandon Marshall at his website.  The post by Marshall purports to explain some of his reasoning for leaving.  Aaron Wilson explains why the Broncos may have a hard time trading Marshall, and none of them should make the Browns overly excited about getting him.

But what about from a purely football standpoint?

Brandon Marshall is clearly a much better WR than Joshua Cribbs, and would give the Browns either a potent 1-2 punch of Marshall and Braylon Edwards, or as PFT suggests, would put Edwards “in play” for a trade to another team. Either of those options is intriguing, especially if the current accord between Mangini and Edwards is on a rocky foundation. (I don’t know either way, but Edwards certainly had a tense relationship with the Browns and the city last year.)

However, how much of a loss would Joshua Cribbs be on special teams and as a versatile offensive weapon? I think the Browns would lose a lot. Cribbs provides difference-making ability every time he lines up for a punt or kick-off. He consistently makes big yardage-saving tackles and is a threat to break a big return every time he touches the ball.

I think that the impact of Brandon Marshall — a terrifically talented receiver — on offense is equivalent to the impact of Joshua Cribbs on special teams. And while I don’t believe offense and special teams are necessarily equals, I do believe they impact NFL games in a similar enough manner that the character and intangibles (not to mention future contract cap-friendliness) of Joshua Cribbs should win out here.

Forget the draft pick, especially if its a first-day pick. I definitely would not do that deal, not with how valuable draft picks are. And the truth is that I, personally, would not trade Joshua Cribbs straight up for Brandon Marshall. Yes, Marshall is a great WR and would instantly help Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, but the Browns have a new coach and should be building for the long haul. Joshua Cribbs is the kind of underrated yet impactful player who can be had for a reasonable contract and become a cornerstone — in both talent AND character — into the next decade.

Brandon Marshall? I’m not so sure. Lots of talent, but will he help to define the new era of football under Eric Mangini or undermine it? I don’t have the answers to those questions, and am basing them solely off of my personal impressions of Brandon Marshall through what I’ve read in the media, but I’ll tell you this: I have no such fears or conceptions about Joshua Cribbs.

If I were the Browns I would send a clear message that the new regime is making a commitment to character and leadership. Brandon Marshall may possess these attributes in addition to his talent, but Joshua Cribbs does possess these attributes in addition to his talent.

Thus, the Browns should trust and hang onto what they know: keep Cribbs. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Now, Michael Vick on the other hand…hmm, that’s mighty intriguing, don’t you think?