Some fantasy owners might already be trying to “Suck For Luck”, but for those of you still in the race here are some last minute tips on some players who may surprise or disappoint.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Advice for Week 10
November 9, 2011 By 115 Comments
There are many different factors that make fantasy football difficult: bye weeks; injuries; random lucky days for your opponent; and worst of all, Chris Johnson.
In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.
What do I mean?
Video: After cold night on the red carpet, Joshua Cribbs needs a drink
February 5, 2011 By 2 Comments
Yesterday, I posted a video in which Joshua Cribbs interviewed division rival Ray Lewis outside a Super Bowl party on behalf of our friends at YardBarker.
Here is another video that encapsulates Cribbs’ adventures and frigid misadventures as a red carpet host. The best summation comes from Cribbs himself at the end of the video: “I need a drink.”
Video: Joshua Cribbs interviews Ray Lewis
February 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment
A lot of the things that happen during Super Bowl week are overhyped and blow way, way, way out of proportion. (Case in point: this.) But one thing about Super Bowl week that I always enjoy is when great football players interview other great football players.
It’s not so much that the interviews are ever particularly hard-hitting or revealing – they aren’t – but I enjoy watching the interaction between guys who are arch rivals on Sundays but who are friendly off the field. Below is a great example, courtesy of the fine folks at YardBarker.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Steals at WR
September 27, 2010 By
It dawned on me that we need to start posting our waiver wire advice columns earlier in the week.
Most leagues have a 24-72 hour waiver period at the beginning of each week when no transactions can be finalized, giving everyone a chance to claim every player. If our waiver wire guidance column comes out after that time period, most of the good players are already claimed.
So this week we’re fixing that and now you can spend some time scouring the waiver wire while watching tonight’s Monday night game to see if there is anyone you want to claim.
Cleveland Browns Player Quotes From May 27, 2010
May 28, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Joshua Cribbs and Joe Thomas Named to Pro Bowl
December 29, 2009 By Leave a Comment
Congratulations are in order for the two players who clearly the best players on the Cleveland Browns roster, and have been so for three years running.
Joshua Cribbs, quite possible the most complete and dominant special teams player in the history of the NFL, and Joe Thomas, the Browns’ left tackle for the next decade, have both been named to the Pro Bowl, according to numerous reports.
Jim Brown, Joshua Cribbs Voice Support for Eric Mangini
December 21, 2009 By 1 Comment
What a difference a couple of weeks (and wins) can make.
Sitting at 1-11, the conventional wisdom was that Eric Mangini was basically coaching out the string, essentially a placeholder for whoever the Browns future “football czar” were to choose to be the new head coach.
After two straight victories – importantly, one of them against arch-nemesis Pittsburgh – two of the most influential voices in Browns Nation have now publicly pledged their support for Mangini.
None other than Joshua Cribbs and Jim Brown.
Cribbs Down and Quinn Accused of Cheap Shot
November 18, 2009 By 1 Comment
There is no joy in Cleveland, the mighty Quinn has gone three and out; kick return man and wildcat Cribbs has gone down.
A fan at Cleveland Browns Stadium for the Monday Night debacle against the Ravens, held up a sign that said it all: “Hey, Baltimore, can you take this team, too?”
After suffering through another day of depression and frustration over the state of these Cleveland Browns’ pretenders, (remember, the Browns did not “come back” in 1999; late owner Al Lerner accepted a nameless, nearly talent-less expansion team and named it the Browns), Browns fans’ hope the end of the nine-game Coach Eric Mangini Era is near.
Josh Cribbs Injury Update: Possible Concussion, Released from Hospital
November 17, 2009 By Leave a Comment
The Browns got their asses handed to them again last night in another embarrassing offensive performance that culminated in a 16-0 shutout.
But nothing the offense did (or didn’t do) could match the collective fear and frustration felt when Josh Cribbs needlessly went down on the last play of the game and then had to be taken off the field on a stretcher.
Let’s forget for a moment how asinine it was for the team to run a “hook and ladder” play with the game out of reach and get to the important stuff: this morning’s Josh Cribbs injury update.
The latest Cribbs injury update, according to the Plain-Dealer, is that Cribbs was taken to the hospital immediately after last night’s game and is being evaluated for a concussion.
I agree wholeheartedly
October 19, 2009 By Leave a Comment
From Fans’ Perspective, Is Joshua Cribbs the Second Most Untradable Cleveland Athlete?
October 16, 2009 By 10 Comments
The following tweet by our friend Scott from Waiting For Next Year perfectly summed up my thoughts regarding the Josh Cribbs trade rumors floating around right now:
As little underlying support there is, these Josh Cribbs rumors are not fun
He is exactly right.
Who knows how legitimate the Cribbs-to-Miami or Cribbs-to-whomever talk is, but there is nothing fun or exciting at all about the Browns’ clear fan favorite being mentioned in the same sentence as the word “trade.”
All the rumors about Cribbs got me to thinking: is he the second most untradable sports figure in Cleveland?
(I think we all know who the first is.)
Browns-Broncos Preview, Analysis, and Prediction
September 18, 2009 By 1 Comment
All things considered, it was perhaps the most disappointing game of Browns’ 2008 season.
After opening the season 0-3, Cleveland battled back to win three out of its next five games, ultimately sitting at 3-5 as they prepared to take on the Denver Broncos at home on Thursday Night Football.
Leading 23-10 early in the 3rd quarter, it appeared that the Browns would improve their record to 4-5 and salvage some semblance of an opportunity to make a late season charge at the playoffs.
The Broncos were only able to muster a field goal in the 3rd quarter, meaning the Browns were nursing a 23-13 lead as the 4th quarter began. I was at the Browns Backers that night, as I usually am during Browns games, and for the first time since the opening week of the season, I felt genuine optimism.
We win this game, we’re right back in this thing, was the thought permeating the room.
We know how that turned out.
Over the next 15 minutes of play at Cleveland Browns Stadium, the door was shut on the Browns’ 2008 season for good. You all remember what happened: Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald forgot how to play cornerback, and another chapter in the over-hyped legend of Jay Cutler was written.
Cutler threw 3 TD passes in the 4th quarter, with the 93-yarder to Eddie Royal that started the barrage seeming to break the Browns’ back, even though Cleveland still led 23-20. Cutler would add subsequent TD passes to Daniel Graham and Brandon Marshall on his way to 447 passing yards on the evening.
Despite a solid game from starter Brady Quinn, and the best rushing performance of the year for Cleveland (160 yards, 5.5 yard average), the Browns ended the night a demoralizing 3-6. They would win the next week at Buffalo before proceeding to drop their last six games of the season.
Would 2008 have turned out any differently had the Browns been 5-5 instead of 4-6 after Week 10? Who knows. Probably not. But I know one thing: the sting of last season would have been a little less severe had that 4th quarter embarrassment against the Broncos not occurred.
Sunday afternoon, the Browns will have their opportunity for vengeance.
Here are the particulars:
Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)
- Browns-Broncos Date: Sunday, September 20
- Browns-Broncos Time: 4:15
- Browns-Broncos TV Network: CBS
- Browns-Broncos Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Beuerlein
- Browns-Broncos Point Spread: Broncos -3.5
- Browns-Broncos Over-Under: 37.5
- StubHub: Browns-Broncos tickets as low as $42!
Last week, my preview and analysis of the Vikings-Browns game unfortunately proved prophetic.
The Vikings are quite possibly the worst matchup in the NFL for the Browns, and it showed on Sunday. Cleveland played very well in the first half, but the Browns’ inability to run and stop the run doomed them to a disappointing second half.
This week, my Browns preview will not be nearly as pessimistic. Unlike last week, when I listed out the three reasons the Browns would lose and then provided three things that had to happen for them to even have a chance, this week will be much easier.
I’m giving you three reasons why the Browns will win on Sunday. Because they will. Chime in with your prediction, then read mine.
Who will win Sunday's game between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos
- Cleveland Browns (63%, 10 Votes)
- Denver Broncos (37%, 6 Votes)
Total Voters: 16
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Browns-Broncos Analysis
Three reasons the Browns will win on Sunday
1 – The Browns’ biggest weakness, run defense, is marginalized by Denver’s unproven rushing attack
The Broncos have long been known as a running team, ever since Terrell Davis began the legendary run of 1,000-yard backs that Mike Shanahan seemed to pluck off of the trees outside the Broncos’ practice facility. There was Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis and Mike Bell, and on and on and on.
Their rushing prowess also led to consistent success and many playoff berths for the Broncos, with the franchise winning at least eight games every year between 2000-2006 after winning 37 games in three years between 1996-1998.
But Denver has not had a 1000-yard back since Tatum Bell ran for 1,025 yards in 2006. Not coincidentally, they haven’t had a winning season since 2006. Also not coincidentally, 2007 is the season Jay Cutler took over as their quarterback.
The end result is that by last season, the Broncos were 12th in the league in rushing at 116.4 yards per game. That is actually impressive when you consider that they did not have a back eclipse 343 yards, with Shanahan employing a revolving door of Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, and others. (Note: the picture above is rumored to have been taken after Shanahan was shown the Broncos’ final 2008 rushing statistics. I cannot confirm this, however.)
The Broncos’ transition from a running team to a passing team was essentially complete at the end of last year, with the results obvious: a 15-17 record during the 2007 and 2008 seasons with no playoff berths.
In 2009, Jay Cutler has been replaced by Kyle Orton and the Broncos are counting on a rookie first round draft pick, Knowshon Moreno, and a career backup, Correll Buckhalter, to carry the load on offense.
One would think that the Broncos’ Week 1 matchup might have offered a chance for the running game to get going early in the season. The Cincinnati Bengals were 21st in the league in rushing defense last year. However, the Broncos’ offense struggled all day, netting a total of 302 yards with Buckhalter and Moreno combining for just 65 yards on 16 carries.
Certainly, I and everyone else expect them to have more success running the ball against the Browns, a team that few have been worse than over the past few years at stopping the run. But the Broncos will not be able to run roughshod all over Cleveland like the Vikings did.
Minnesota blew the Week 1 game open in the second half because Adrian Peterson is an absolute beast. In the first half, Cleveland actually played very well and contained the Vikings on the ground. On Sunday, I expect the Browns defensive performance to be much closer to the first half of Week 1 as opposed to the second half.
I’m sure that Denver will get 110-120 yards on the ground. The Browns are not going to miraculously become a good defense against the run overnight. But I do believe they will be able to contain the Broncos enough, like Cincinnati did, to make Kyle Orton beat them.
I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton, which me leads to reason #2 why the Browns will win on Sunday…
2 – I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton
The Broncos beat the Browns last year because Jay Cutler, despite his uneven record as a starting quarterback, is supremely talented and capable of getting into a zone that few QBs in the NFL can match. Cutler also had a great rapport with WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, and it was certainly on display last season.
That said, Cutler is douchy, inconsistent, and has poor leadership skills, which in my mind makes him a hugh risk as a franchise QB. Obviously though, none of that mattered in the 4th quarter last year.
Kyle Orton, on the other hand, is not the type of quaterback who can beat you on his own.
In Week 1, Orton finished the game with solid numbers: 17-28, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs. But take away his fluky touchdown pass to Brandon Stokley that won the game, and this is what his numbers would have been: 16-27, 146 yards, 0 TDs.
Against Cincinnati’s defense.
I realize the irony of a Browns fan criticizing another team’s offense, but the Broncos offensive attack just does not scare me. If the Browns can contain the Broncos’ running game, which I believe that we will, it will put the onus on Kyle Orton to win the game. Despite the fluky madness that ended last week’s game — for which Orton gets no credit, sorry — I don’t believe Kyle Orton will be able to get the job done.
The truth is that I see the Broncos and Browns as very similar teams. Both teams’ running games have potential, but have shown nothing yet. Both teams have pedestrian QBs that are incapable of winning games on their own. Both teams also have defenses with some obvious strengths, but also some very obvious holes and debilitating weaknesses.
So, considering that the Broncos are playing at home, what leads me to believe that the Browns will win on Sunday?
3 – Sunday’s game will be a close one in which special teams make a huge difference; the Browns have the decided advantage in this area.
No discussion of the Browns’ special teams can begin anywhere but with the best special teams player in the NFL: Joshua Cribbs.
In case anyone needed a reminder of Cribbs’ greatness, he took a punt 67 yards to the house last Sunday against the Vikings. For his career, Cribbs averages 11.1 yards per punt return and has score twice. On kickoffs, Cribbs averages 26.3 yards per return and has scored five times.
Eddie Royal, who handles the return duties for Denver and did so last year as well, has yet to score in his young career and falls short of Cribbs’ averages in both areas.
Kicker is another area where the Browns have an advantage.
Phil Dawson has made of 82.9% of his kicks over his successful career, with numerous clutch game-winners over the past two seasons. He may not have the strongest leg in the NFL, but he’s 12-14 between 40-49 yards over the past two seasons and did kick a 56-yarder last season.
Matt Prater, who handles placekicking duties for Denver, is only a 70% career kicker despite going 2-2 in Week 1 on a couple of long kicks. Last season, he was only 5-11 from 40-49 yards.
In a close game, I’ll take my chances with our far more proven kicker.
The Browns also have the more consistent punter and punt coverage unit. In 2008, Dave Zastudil averaged 45.5 yards per punt, pinned the other team inside their 20-yard line on 30.7% of his kicks, and the Browns gave up an average punt return of only 7.3 yards, good for an overall net of 42.3. Also, 43 of Zastudil’s punts were fair caught.
Brett Kern handles the punting duties for Denver, and while he averaged 46.7 yards per kick in 2008, he only pinned the opposing team inside its 20-yard line on 28.3% of his kicks. Additionally, the Broncos gave up 4.5 more yards per punt return (11.8) than the Browns, which resulted in a net punt average of 39.6 for Kern.
Here is the best thing about Kern from a Browns perspective: he kicks it long but they are returnable. Whereas only 42.6% of Zastudil’s punts were returned in 2008, 60.8% of Kern’s were returned. This only accentuates our advantage in the return game and makes Cribbs even more of a factor.
In a game between two subpar offenses, the hidden yardage of the return game could be huge. Points will most likely be at a premium, and the team can put itself in the best position to score with solid field position will most likely end up on top.
Hence why I believe the Browns will win on Sunday.
Browns-Broncos Prediction
I don’t think that Denver is a very good team this year. I’m not sure that the Browns are a good team either, but I do believe we are better than the Broncos.
What does give me a little bit of pause in picking Cleveland to win this Sunday is the fact that the game is in Denver, which has always been a tough place for opponents to play. Between the rowdy fans, the altitude, and the typically strong teams Denver has had, coming into the Mile High city and getting a W has never been easy.
But after the huge withdrawal that the Broncos made from the football karma bank last week, improbably snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, they are ripe for a little payback in Week 2. Add this impending karmic payback to the payback the Browns will already have on their minds after last season’s 4th quarter debacle, and Browns fans have yet another reason to believe.
Last season, the Browns outplayed the Broncos for 45 minutes and then simply ran into a 15-minute 4th quarter buzzsaw that could not be stopped. That threat is now gone with Jay Cutler replaced by Kyle Orton.
I think Sunday’s game will be much more like the first three quarters of the 2008 matchup than it will be like the final quarter. In fact, it will probably even be a little closer.
But if you take away that final quarter, the Browns would have won in ’08.
One year later, with special teams being the difference, the Browns will finish the job.
Take the Browns and the points but understand that you won’t need them:
Cleveland Browns 17 | Denver Broncos 16
**********
* – Jay Cutler in Browns-Broncos ’08 photo credit: Duncan / AP via New York Daily News
* – Joshua Cribbs photo credit: Bleacher Report
* – Phil Dawson photo credit: Waiting For Next Year
Browns-Vikings Preview, Analysis, and Prediction
September 12, 2009 By Leave a Comment
I can’t wait for tomorrow.
The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.
It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year.
What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.
When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?
There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.
But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.
A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.
And now, here we are on the eve of 2009′s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…
…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.
So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.
I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.
If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.
Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.
I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:
For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.
And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.
Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.
So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?
And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.
Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.
But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.
I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.
Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
- Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
- Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
- Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
- Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
- Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
- Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
- StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
- StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
- StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
- StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets
And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first.
Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday
1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run
This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:
2008:
- Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
- Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)
2007:
- Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
- Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)
Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised.
And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.
2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack
The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the top tog on the depth chart.
While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:
2008:
- Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
- Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)
2007:
- Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
- Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)
There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.
3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time
This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.
And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.
- The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
- The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.
If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.
The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.
Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive.
I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.
But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.
It’s just highly, highly unlikely.
But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.
And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).
Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday
1 – Home field advantage
Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.
What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.
Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.
Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.
(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)
2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007′s competence
As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.
However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.
The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield.
- Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
- James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
- The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.
Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity.
Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game.
The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.
3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness
I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.
However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.
- Brandon McDonald led the team with five
- Sean Jones had four
- Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
- Mike Adams had two
- Three other players had one
Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.
Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.
Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.
Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.
Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?
It depends on which Brett Favre we see.
He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing.
But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?
We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.
Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season.
Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.
Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.
Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.
You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.
If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.
So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.
Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13
And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.
A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:
- Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
- Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
- Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)
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* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends
* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post
“Internet Reports” Suggesting Browns May Be Targeting Trade for Brandon Marshall
June 16, 2009 By 1 Comment
According to “internet reports”, the Cleveland Browns are targeting WR Brandon Marshall in a trade with the Denver Broncos. The website reporting the rumor, which I will not name so as not to given them their 15 minutes, has said that the package would include KR/ST Stud/WR/Complete Badass Josh Cribbs plus one or more draft picks.
To view the complete report on the Brandon Marshall-to-the-Browns rumor, hop on over to the good folks at Pro Football Talk.
(For the record, hopefully you understood the sarcasm of the first paragraph. Pro Football Talk is decidedly NOT a blog that typically receives such treatment anymore (but we are!), although they did at one time. Now, they are striking deals with NBC and basically encroaching more and more on the NFL universe every single day — and I mean that as positively as possible. Congrats to Florio for the recent announcement of the deal with NBC. We are quite pleased that “suitable nodes” will no longer be part of the PFT lexicon.)
Now, back to this Brandon Marshall-to-the-Browns trade rumor.
I believe that Florio is hearing such whispers, I just don’t believe that the rumor will ever come to fruition, nor that it should.
First, I just don’t see Brandon Marshall being a “Mangini guy.” Granted, I only have peripheral knowledge of what a “Mangini guy” is from what we’ve seen through the press, which of course is very little because Mangini is decidedly a “Belichick guy.” However, what I believe that we have learned is that Eric Mangini is a coach who values character, loathes distractions, and employs a system that demands cerebral players and desires versatile players.
We also know the following about the Browns: they are thin on experience and proven play-making ability at the WR position and are still embroiled in a contract spat with the Cribbs.
Still, I just can’t see this being a move that Eric Mangini and George Kokinis would want to make.
Based solely on reputation and my own admittedly subjective opinion, Joshua Cribbs is cut from a higher cloth of character than Brandon Marshall. Additionally, Cribbs has played multiple positions in the NFL and was a QB in college. Just based on the diversity of his experience alone, I think it’s reasonable to assume that Cribbs is a more cerebral player overall than Brandon Marshall. And while Marshall may know receiving better, Cribbs clearly has versatility in his corner.
As for distractions, yeah Cribbs has gone public with his desire for a reworked contract, but he also participated in camp most of the way through the squabble. Marshall, on the other hand, has unresolved (though disputed, by him) issues with domestic violence that were recently chronicled on Outside the Lines. And Marshall is clearly not as amenable as Cribbs. Something set Marshall off and he, essentially, “took his ball and went home.” Marshall recently cleared out his locker so serious was he about geting out of Denver, with Jay Cutler’s departure ostensibly being part of the reason.
Update: Just caught this recent post on PFT regarding a statement by Brandon Marshall at his website. The post by Marshall purports to explain some of his reasoning for leaving. Aaron Wilson explains why the Broncos may have a hard time trading Marshall, and none of them should make the Browns overly excited about getting him.
But what about from a purely football standpoint?
Brandon Marshall is clearly a much better WR than Joshua Cribbs, and would give the Browns either a potent 1-2 punch of Marshall and Braylon Edwards, or as PFT suggests, would put Edwards “in play” for a trade to another team. Either of those options is intriguing, especially if the current accord between Mangini and Edwards is on a rocky foundation. (I don’t know either way, but Edwards certainly had a tense relationship with the Browns and the city last year.)
However, how much of a loss would Joshua Cribbs be on special teams and as a versatile offensive weapon? I think the Browns would lose a lot. Cribbs provides difference-making ability every time he lines up for a punt or kick-off. He consistently makes big yardage-saving tackles and is a threat to break a big return every time he touches the ball.
I think that the impact of Brandon Marshall — a terrifically talented receiver — on offense is equivalent to the impact of Joshua Cribbs on special teams. And while I don’t believe offense and special teams are necessarily equals, I do believe they impact NFL games in a similar enough manner that the character and intangibles (not to mention future contract cap-friendliness) of Joshua Cribbs should win out here.
Forget the draft pick, especially if its a first-day pick. I definitely would not do that deal, not with how valuable draft picks are. And the truth is that I, personally, would not trade Joshua Cribbs straight up for Brandon Marshall. Yes, Marshall is a great WR and would instantly help Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, but the Browns have a new coach and should be building for the long haul. Joshua Cribbs is the kind of underrated yet impactful player who can be had for a reasonable contract and become a cornerstone — in both talent AND character — into the next decade.
Brandon Marshall? I’m not so sure. Lots of talent, but will he help to define the new era of football under Eric Mangini or undermine it? I don’t have the answers to those questions, and am basing them solely off of my personal impressions of Brandon Marshall through what I’ve read in the media, but I’ll tell you this: I have no such fears or conceptions about Joshua Cribbs.
If I were the Browns I would send a clear message that the new regime is making a commitment to character and leadership. Brandon Marshall may possess these attributes in addition to his talent, but Joshua Cribbs does possess these attributes in addition to his talent.
Thus, the Browns should trust and hang onto what they know: keep Cribbs. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Now, Michael Vick on the other hand…hmm, that’s mighty intriguing, don’t you think?
