UFC 100: The Lines, The Predictions, The Article

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be holding their 100th Pay Per View event this Saturday evening. Less then ten years ago it looked as if the UFC was a failed experiment, but now things seem to have come full circle. It’s PPVs reach millions, a few of its fighters are household names, and Dana White has a successful V-log.

UFC 100

• UFC 100 Date: Saturday July 11th
• UFC 100 Start Time 7pm PT/10pm ET
• UFC 100 TV: Live only on Pay Per View

UFC 100 Betting Lines and Predictions:

Brock Lesnar (Heavyweight Champion) -240 Vs. Frank Mir (Interim Heavyweight Champion) +190

It seems like only yesterday that Brock Lesnar was F-5ing the Big Show on WWE Smackdown, my how time flies. Lesnar is now 2-1 in the UFC and appears to be unstoppable. His combination of size, redneck fervor, and brute force seems to have turned him into some kind of superhuman fighting manufactured home owner.

Back in 2004 Frank Mir captured the Heavyweight Title, then was injured in a motorcycle accident. It was two years before he returned to the octagon, and two more years before he returned to title holder status. The man is a submission expert and seems to have figured out how to win on his feet.

Mir welcomed Lesnar to the UFC by allowing Brock to pound on his face then making him tap out to an ankle lock in the first round. Brock hates Mir for that and for not wearing Death Clutch T-shirts in every interview.

What makes this pick problematic for me is the first fight. Mir said, in a few interviews, he was going to wait for Brock to expose his legs and then attack them because wrestlers tend to forget about them. While Mir was getting pounded by Lesnars meet hooks, he found Brock’s legs, and then attacked them. That says a lot to me about both guys. One, Lesner was relaying on his power and wasn’t paying attention to Mir. Two, Mir actually gameplans.

My Pick: Brock Lesnar… though I don’t feel good about it.

Georges St-Pierre (Welterweight Champion) -300 Vs. Thiago Alves+220

The big news coming into this fight is that Thiago Alves is near making weight. Yeah, nothing about the actual match up. I guess that becomes a big deal when you cut weight to fight at 170 but walk around over 200lbs. Also, he has a history of missing weight for big fights (ok one big fight, but it was the one which gave him this fight).

Georges St-Pierre, the man is invincible. He is like MMAs’ Rambo. He will out wrestle a wrestler, submit a BJJ blackbet, KO and standup fighter, and then shake your hand, bow and wish you the best after he wins. After it’s all said and done he will have probably boinked your sister and you’ll shrug it off saying “Well, that guys good.”

This is where I usually give the underdog some kind of fighting chance then mention what the favorite does well. Alves is good at eating and knocking people out; GSP is great at everything else. This money line may be too close (and that line will decide my fate when Alves hits a flash KO and GSP falls while cursing my name)

My Pick: Georges St-Pierre

Jon Jones -450 Vs. Jake O’Brien +325

Yeah there are some bigger fights on the main card like Fitch Vs. Thiago, the TUF coach fight of Henderson Vs. Bisping, or the two grizzled vets Coleman Vs. Bonnar, but this fight is much more interesting. Not because it will be a back and forth battle between two guys fighting for their livelihoods; or because the two men hate each other and it will quickly divulge into an old fashion slug fest. This is interesting because one of these guys is two fights away from being a headliner, and the other guy is from my hometown.

Jon “Bones” Jones is one good opponent or two more wins away from being the UFC’s next big star. He’s only 21 years old but he is already 8-0 in MMA. In two UFC fights he has pounded his way to decision victories. His last fight should have ended in a spectacular KO via a spinning elbow, but Stephen Bonnar somehow stumbled his way back into a defensive position and was able to make it through the rest of the match while getting manhandled. This guy is fast, powerful, and a showman.

Jake O’Brien isn’t exacly someone to overlook though. He had a lot of success as a heavyweight until he ran into the Pitbull Andrei Arlovski. He suffered one more defeat after that and has decided to drop weight to fight in the stacked Light-Heavyweight division. If Jones wasn’t such a young phenom, I would expect to see something out of O’Brien. Though this fight isn’t on the main card, I would look forward to seeing it.

My Pick: Jon “Bones” Jones

UFC 94 Recap: The Aftermath

It’s in the books, UFC94 is done and over. BJ Penn, Nate Diaz, Stephen Bonnar, and Thiago Silva are all scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened. I went 1-2 on my picks and finally hit an upset special. Here’s my quick review.

Starting at the top:

GSP defeated BJ Penn Via Stoppage.

GSP dominated this fight. After watching these two mix it up, it almost seems silly that anyone ever doubted GSP. The only thing Penn showed us in this fight is that he can take a beating, then have his brother throw in the towel. This was 1 round of feeling out and then 3 rounds of dominance. Two questions now remain: 1) How does BJ Penn respond to this beating and 2) Do we now get to see GSP fight Anderson Silva?

The answer to the first question has already started to be answered as BJ’s camp has filed a formal complaint with the Nevada State Athletic Comission over GSP’s corner adding Vaseline to his back in between rounds 1 and 2. As Dana White put it “some Vaseline on a guy’s back didn’t change the outcome of that fight, but you don’t do it.”

Lets hope that UFC continues its tradition of giving us fans what we want and talks Anderson Silva into going down in weight, or GSP into going up in weight so we can finally see who the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world really is (no offense meant toward Fedor).

Next we will look at Jon “Bones” Jones defeating “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar Via Decision

I used their ring names because I love them both for different reasons. Bonnar has the best in MMA, and Jones may have the worst. Therefore I am quite fond of them both.

Jones dominated the first and second round of this fight. He showed aggressiveness and the ability to throw a sick spinning elbow (pictured). “Bones” gassed out in the third, but by that point all he had to do was keep from getting knocked out or submitted.

Bonnar is still good, but he needs to really work to catch up to his TUF 1 opponent Forrest Griffin. Joe Rogan mentioned he is now training at Extreme Couture and that will help him in the future, but if he wants to keep in the mix at 205 he really needs a convincing victory soon.

Now onto the fights I missed:

Lyoto Machida defeated Thiago Silva via KO

Yes you read that right. Lyoto KO’ed my pick Silva. This fight went the way I thought it would with Silva trying to be aggressive against Lyoto’s bait and counter style. That being said, I never thought that Lyoto would be so efficient. He knocked Silva silly two times before finishing him off. All it took was a picture perfect foot sweep followed by a fist to the face on his way to the mat with one second left in the first round. When the bell sounded Lyoto got up to walk to his corner and Silva laid motionless. It was an awkward KO and a surprising one given Lyotos penchant for winning by decision. I could be wrong about Lyoto… maybe he is good.

Clay Guida defeated Nate Diaz Via Split Decision

So, due to me working late last night, and not being able to find this fight online, I haven’t seen it yet. I can only assume that Nate Diaz made some profaine gestures then cussed at Clay a bunch. Guida was forced to start swinging his arms like the Tasmanian Devil until one shot hit Nate in the face and they then went to the mat. Now I’ll say Nate again flipped the bird at Guida while Guida was in Nate’s guard. Guida then began to smother Diaz with his curly locks of hair. This went on for 3 rounds. One judge was impressed at Diaz’s ability to keep his brother from jumping into the ring and starting a scuffle, so he gave the fight to Nate. The other two judges were enamored with Guida’s ability to use his hair as a weapon, so they gave it to him. I’ll also assume that after the fight Stocton’s favorite sons, The Diaz Brothers, gave big props to their home town then went on call out fighters who are still under contract to Elite XC.

As mentioned above, I missed the rest of the show, so here is a list of the rest of the fights:

Matt Arroyo defeated Dan Cramer Via Split Decision

Jake O’Brien defeated Christian Wellisch Via Split Decision

John Howard defeated Chris Wilson Via Split Decision

Thiago Tavares defeated Manny Gamburyan Via Decision

Jon Fitch defeated Akihiro Gono Via Decision

Karo Parisyan defeated Dong Hyun Kim Via Split Decision

UFC 94: St-Pierre v Penn 2 – Preview, Predictions, and Lines

Ladies and gentlemen it’s finally here.

After three weeks of hype, two weeks of underwhelming PPV’s, and a lucky punch by Fedor, we have now come to UFC 94: St-Pierre Vs. Penn 2. Now I’m going to take a moment and let you all know my predictions have been off the last few months. I have gone a total 2-5 since picking for this site and am 0-2 on my upset specials. This has not only hurt my pride but also my check book.

A quick breakdown of the particulars:

• What: UFC 94: St-Pierre v Penn
• When: Saturday, January 31 at 10:00 PM ET
• Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
• TV: PPV – $44.95 ($54.95 if you want HD)

Let’s start this preview at the top:

Georges St-Pierre ( Welterweight Champion) -185 Vs. BJ Penn (Lightweight Champion) +130

This is one of the most anticipated rematches in UFC history. It has all the makings of a true blood feud. St-Pierre and Penn legitimately dislike each other, their first fight was won on a split decision, and both men are current UFC champions.

If you look at common opponents both men have fought Sean Sherk, Matt Hughes, and Matt Serra. They both beat Sean Sherk by TKO, so no advantage there. They have both beaten Matt Serra, but Penn did it in his first try (decision). St-Pierre got unlucky in their first fight and lost to a TKO, but followed it up with a dominate TKO victory in the rematch. I have to give Penn the advantage there.

Things get interesting as we look at Matt Hughes. Penn submitted a near his prime Hughes in ‘04, but then got TKO’ed to a past his prime Hughes in ‘06. St-Pierre was submitted by a near his prime Hughes in ‘04 and then submitted a past his prime Hughes in ‘07. I think St-Pierre gets this one because losing to Hughes in ‘04 isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but losing to him in ‘06, via TKO no less, is probably a bit of a blemish. While on the subject of Hughes, Saturday night will be the 5 year anniversary of Penn’s win.

The first match between Penn and St-Pierre was a split decision that saw St-Pierre win, but a split decision isn’t much to go off of. Looking at common opponents also wont give you much. I say go with your gut. Mine says St-Pierre wins. He works harder then Penn, seems to take his career more seriously then Penn, and he scares me more then Penn. All that being said, this fight could really go either way. Both are solid standing up and on the ground, both have a blood lust, and both are insanely competitive. I think Penn’s ego gets in his way and St-Pierresomehow pulls it out in the 2nd.. lets say by submission.

My Pick: Georges St-Pierre

What do you think?

Who will win?

• Penn
• St-Pierre

View Results

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Lyoto Machida -265 Vs. Thiago Silva +200

I’m telling you right now, this will be an upset (but not my special). Both of these fighters stand undefeated with a record of 13-0. It’s my opinion the only reason Lyoto is favored so heavily is because he beat Tito Ortiz. The truth of the matter is that Lyoto won that fight by running away from Tito. He didn’t really land any shots and only seemed to have an advantage once in the fight. He also almost gave up a triangle to Tito (a man not known for his submission skills). Loyto has won 4 of his 5 UFC fights by decision.

On the other hand you have Thiago Silva. He has won all 4 of his UFC fights by TKO or submission. I don’t think he will let Lyoto run away from him like Tito and others have. Most importantly, Thiago is freaking scary man! I’ve seen all 4 of his UFC fights and he has been dominate. I say this is a first round TKO for Silva

MY Pick: Thiago Silva

Stephan Bonnar -185 Vs. Jon Jones +154

We all know and love “The American Psycho” Stephen Bonnar. His Ultimate Fighter 1 main event against Forrest Griffin helped to cement the UFC as Americas next big sport. He never backs down and he can take a crap load of punishment. We all always pull for the guy, but he hasn’t fought in the UFC since October of 2007 and he is 31 years old. The clock is ticking on Bonnar.

Jon Jones appears to be an up and comer, he’s only 21 and has a record of 7-0. That could be deceiving though as only one of his fights have come in the octagon.

This seems like a developmental fight to me. If Jones loses it wont hurt his stock because Bonnar is a known name with a fan base and a guy who’s only UFC losses come at the hands of the current and former Light Heavy Champions (Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin). Yet, if he wins it is a upset victory and the UFC has the beginnings of a new star.

I don’t know enough about Jones to predict how this fight will go, but I get the feeling someone in the UFC may have decided to groom this guy. I will choose this as my upset special.

My Pick: Jon “Bones” Jones

Nate Diaz -130 Vs. Clay Guida EVEN

If you’re anything like me, chances are you think Nate and his brother Nick are both a waste of talent. Nate isn’t as bad as Nick, but the simple relation to him makes me hope that Clay justifies the way this line has been moving for the last 2 weeks.

I have no horse in this race, and I don’t know much about Clay Guida, but I want to see Nate Diaz loose. That being said, I pick him to win. He may be a mess as a person, but he has talent. It also doesn’t hurt that the few times I have seen Clay in action he has been inconsistent.

My Pick: Nate Diaz