White Sox-Roy Halladay Trade Discussion: Danks, Ramirez for Halladay?

Earlier this season, the Chicago White Sox made a strong play to trade for San Diego pitcher Jake Peavy.  A deal was reached in principle before being nixed by the Padres ace.  

Naturally, it was assumed that when the Toronto Blue Jays made Roy Halladay available that the White Sox would get involved.

And as team after team has fallen off of the Blue Jays radar screen, gauging the asking price to be too high even for one of the best pitchers of this decade, the White Sox still apparently linger as a potential trade partner for Toronto…at least in one writer’s mind.

In a recent column, Rick Morrisey of the Tribune wrote that the White Sox should do whatever is necessary to pry Halladay away from the Blue Jays, floating a package of John Danks and Alexei Ramirez as a possibility.

So what’s it going to take to get Halladay, the Blue Jays’ star pitcher?

Let’s put on our GM cap and start with shortstop Alexei Ramirez and pitcher John Danks. I know: a steep price. But worth it. Halladay is the overpowering pitcher the Sox haven’t had since Jack McDowell. Last season, he struck out 206 batters and walked 39. So far this year, it’s 106-17.

Admittedly, I’m torn on whether I would pull the trigger on such a deal.  I was all for the Peavy trade because it was based on prospects, guys who had not yet proven their Major League readiness.  John Danks and Alexei Ramirez have already proven to be above average players at their respective positions, and have also proven to be clutch performers in a pennant race (as evidenced by Alexei’s game-winning grand slam down the stretch last year and John Danks’ incredible start in the one-game playoff to propel the White Sox into the postseason).

Of course, Roy Halladay has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in baseball since 2001.

What do you think?  Would you do this deal? My gut reaction is to say no, but part of that may be an attachment to Alexei and Danks, both of whom I love and see as young building blocks for the future of the White Sox. The argument for a Halladay deal is that it gives the White Sox a better chance to win this season. The way I look at that is which combo would you rather have: Halladay pitching with Beckham at short and Fields at third, or Danks pitching with Alexei at short and Beckham at third?

Josh Fields hasn’t proven he can be consistent with the bat or the glove, so our infield would certainly weaken in the field (though perhaps not by much…we can’t get much worse in the field) and at the plate, barring a great Fields turnaround. But does Halladay’s consistent dominance improve the White Sox that much more every fifth day over Danks?  I will say this about Danks: he is a significantly less effective pitcher in July and August during his short career than he’s been in the other months.  However, he’s been solid in September.

The other issue that would have to be taken into account is contracts.  As Morrisey points out:

The financial cost of acquiring Halladay is not prohibitive: about $7 million for the rest of this year and $15.75 million in 2010.

John Danks is approaching his arbitration eligible years (beginning next season) and the White Sox will have to decide whether or not to sign him to a long-term deal.  Certainly any deal with Danks would have to rival what rotation mate Gavin Floyd received this offseason.  Floyd’s deal bought out his arbitration-eligible seasons for four years, $15.5 million.  I would have to assume that as a 25 year old lefty, Danks would be able to command a higher price than Floyd.  

Still, their combined contract would be far less than what the White Sox would have to pony up to lock Halladay up to a long-term deal after his current deal expires in 2010.  Would you rather have Danks and Floyd locked up for the next half decade or Roy Halladay and Floyd for a year and a half, and then only Floyd?

Alexei Ramirez will also have a contract coming up soon, and I’m sure plenty of teams would love a speedy, power-hitting middle infielder in the prime of his career. But I would assume Alexei’s first choice would be to stay on the South Side, in the very Latino-friendly clubhouse managed by Ozzie Guillen.  And if the White Sox could get Floyd, Danks, and Ramirez locked up, then do what the Rays did with Evan Longoria and what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun and sign Gordon Beckham long-term before he becomes arbitration-eligible, as well as lock up Carlos Quentin, then there will be a solid nucleus of young talent to carry the team through the transition years when Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and others eventually have to exit stage left.

The more I write about this potential deal (which really is just Morrisey’s conjecture as far as I can tell) the less I like it.  Sure, I’d love to have Halladay for this year and next, but not if the price is Danks and Ramirez.  If it’s one of those guys and an unproven minor leaguer, fine. Obviously you have to give up a lot to get a guy like Halladay.  But Danks and Ramirez are building blocks for the future of this team, whereas Halladay would likely be a rental for one season plus a couple of months.

I’ll trust Ken Williams to make the ultimate decision if such a deal ever gets on the table, and there would definitely be an exciting buzz if Halladay came to the South Side; but I’m not holding my breath.  Check out the most recent column at MLB Trade Rumors detailing the Roy Halladay trade rumors and you will see nary a mention of the White Sox.  I know that Ken likes to work in the shadows, but I’ll reserve all future analysis and comment of Roy Halladay until something concrete is actually out there.

Until then, I’m quite happy with the team that we have, and still confident that our 2005 vets have one more strong October run in them…with our without Roy Halladay.

* – Roy Halladay photo credit: Getty Images via SportsNet.ca

White Sox Retrospective: Looking Back at The Jake Peavy Trade That Almost Was But (Thankfully?) Wasn’t

Back in May, one of the hottest topics in baseball was the Padres’ desire to deal stud SP Jake Peavy and the revelation that they had agreed to a deal in principle with the White Sox. The Cubs had long been rumored to be atop the list of likely landing spots for Peavy, so the report of Peavy’s imminent deal to the Sox surprised many.

I was strongly in favor of the deal at the time, even going so far as to start an online petition in hopes of helping Peavy overcome his reluctance to come to the South Side by showing him an outpouring of a support from White Sox fans. (10 supporters! Whoo-hoo! I guess not everything goes viral online…)

Holding full no-trade rights, however, Peavy was in possession of all the cards and in the end he decided to nix the deal to stay in San Diego. I, along with many other White Sox fans, was disappointed. Hanging onto Aaron Poreda was certainly a silver lining, but man was the thought of a Peavy-Buehrle lefty-righty combo atop the rotation enticing.

Who would have thought that, in retrospect, Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade would look more and more like a positive for the White Sox with each passing week.

First, there is Peavy himself. He has made only four starts since the announcement of the deal-in-principle and is currently on the DL with a strained tendon in his right ankle. And the four starts he made were not exactly stellar (perhaps because of the injury though, to be fair). Only two were quality starts and his ERA rose from 3.48 to 3.97.

Plus, a deeper look at Peavy’s career numbers perhaps shows one of the main reasons why he is so reluctant to leave San Diego, and why clowns like myself were perhaps a little too anxious to get him into the summer bandbox that is U.S. Cellular Field. Look at Peavy’s home/road splits this season:

• Home: 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .217 BAA, 62:17 K/BB
• Road: 2-2, 4.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .246 BAA, 30:11 K/BB

And for his career:

• Home: 45-31, 2.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .219 BAA, 779:212 K/BB
• Road: 47-37, 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .246 BAA, 569:223 K/BB

So this year’s numbers are to be expected based on his track record. And it’s not like I and others excited about the possibility of a Peavy trade didn’t realize this, but I know that I didn’t really consider it with the weight that I probably should have.

PetcoPark, as has been well documented, is a severe pitcher’s park. So I would assume that most San Diego pitchers have similar splits. Thus, I would expect stats like BAA and HRs against to be up on the road. What concerns me looking deeper at the stats is the vastly different K rate. For his career, Peavy’s K/BB ratio is 3.67:1 at home but drops to 2.55:1 on the road. I realize different ballparks dictate pitching guys differently and can have other subtle effects, but Peavy’s numbers specifically seem like a pretty jarring difference for a stat that takes into account what happens when the ball is not in play and is thus not affected by park dimensions or climate factors that affect ball flight.

Maybe it’s a confidence thing, maybe it’s a certain oneness with his home mound, maybe it’s just a comfort level thing of strapping on his stirrups in the home locker room. But for whatever reason, Jake Peavy is dominant at home and much more ordinary on the road. You can’t really consider his home stats when considering what kind of impact Peavy might have made in Chicago. So maybe this deal wasn’t the slam dunk that I thought it was at the time.

To be fair to myself, part of the reason for my excitement was desperation. On May 21st, the White Sox were 17-22 and our non-Buehrle pitchers had not been good or capable of any semblance of consistency. In the six weeks since then, we’ve gone 27-18 and moved to two games within first place Detroit. For a team starved for solid pitching at the time, I thought Peavy would be a great shot in the arm. It turns out that we got a great shot in the arm, it was just an internal one. Look at the numbers:

• John Danks on May 21st: 4.60 ERA | John Danks now: 3.76 ERA
• Gavin Floyd on May 21st: 7.71 ERA | Gavin Floyd now: 4.33 ERA
• Jose Conreras on May 21st: 8.19 ERA | Jose Contreras now: 4.54 ERA

Even with their terrible early season numbers still part of the whole, all three of our 2-3-4 starters have better cumulative ERAs than what Peavy has put up in starts outside of San Diego this season. And Clayton Richard’s ERA on the season is 4.75, which is only slightly worse than what Peavy has done on the road this year.

I’m not saying that Danks, Floyd, Contreras, and Richard are individually better than Jake Peavy. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball for the last half decade. But the resurgence of our pitching staff over the last six weeks has certainly made me far, far less regrettable about the trade not going through. And looking at Peavy’s inability to dominate away from home certainly makes me question just how disappointed we might have been had he come to the South Side in a deal for two of our top pitching prospects and threw a 3.9+ ERA up there over the balance of the season.

In the end, I think the Peavy to Chicago deal-that-almost-was ended up working out in the best interests of each party involved (except for the Padres of course, who desperately wanted to get rid of his contract and are now stuck because of his injury). Jake Peavy gets to stay in San Diego and pitch where he is most comfortable once he gets healthy, and the White Sox have been able to enjoy the fruits of the Danks/Floyd combo regaining their 2008 rhythm and Jose “The Phoenix” Contreras rediscovering his supreme badassness. Plus, we still have Aaron Poreda, who has now become a valuable member of one of the league’s best bullpens.

Kudos to Ken Williams for being proactive and putting the White Sox in a position to make a big splash in filling what, at the time, was a pretty glaring area of need. In retrospect though, Jake Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade was probably a blessing in disguise for the Good Guys.

* – John Danks/Gavin Floyd photo credit: AP via USA Today

Carlos Quentin Set to Begin Charlotte Rehab Assignment, Podsednik Continues to Own Greinke

The Chicago White Sox, currently in the midst of their hottest stretch of the season, are one step closer to get their best all-around player back in the lineup. Mr. Porcelain (but also Mr. 2008 Should-Have-Been AL MVP) Carlos Quentin is in Charlotte and set to play for the Knights tonight as he recovers from plantar fasciitis. According to the Sun-Times, TCQ is set to play three innings today.

It is unfortunately important to note that just because Quentin will be taking swings in Charlotte, it is not automatic that his foot will hold up:

The 2008 MVP candidate has been on the shelf with plantar fasciitis in his left foot since May 26. He said two weeks ago that even if the tendon in the foot holds up the rest of the season, he might have surgery after the season.

If it doesn’t hold up?

”We’re aware that if a relapse happens where the tendon ruptures even more, well, that’s major,” Quentin said.

Guillen and the organization want to make sure that Quentin gets to the end of this season without any setbacks. Then they can make a decision on the next step.

”We’ll see what happens,” Guillen said. ”I’m very optimistic about his improvement. But in the meanwhile, I have to see it first, then I’ll get excited.”

Still, for White Sox fans (and especially this one, who banked a lot of pride on Quentin’s eventual healthy return) today is a positive sign. Hopefully the reports from Charlotte will be as good as the reports were from Kansas City yesterday.

The White Sox had one of their most impressive wins of the season against Zack Greinke and the fading Royals last night, a 5-0 shutout. A few performances in particular stood out:

• Scott Podsednik (the 2009 AL MVP? That’s not as ridiculous as it sounds…) went 3-4 with 2 runs and a double and continues to be a stalwart atop the White Sox order. He also continued his impressive and surprising dominance of Zack Greinke. Look at this numbers: 16-30 (.533 BA), 5 2B, 1 3B, 1.342 OPS. Wow.
• AJ Pierzynski continued his hot hitting by going 3-4 with a home run and evening his average up at .300 for the season.
• John Danks captured his 7th win of the season, pitching 7 1/3 shutout innings and striking out 5 while giving up only 5 hits and, most importantly, walking no one. Danks now has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP lifetime in 7 starts against the Royals.

Today, Gavin Floyd looks to continue his hot pitching and lead the White Sox to their 8th straight victory of the year. He will be opposed by Luke Hochevar. The White Sox are currently only 2.5 games out of first place with Minnesota and Detroit beating up on eachother this weekend. Either way, a victory for the White Sox will see them get closer to Detroit or put more distance between 2nd and 3rd place. And if Carlos Quentin has a successful first step in Charlotte, even better.

It’s not too greedy to ask for a double-dose of good news on July 4th is it? Let’s see some fireworks White Sox, and a safe, comfortable, healthy return to the field for Carlos Quentensity. (I like this name a lot better than Mr. Pocelain…)

40 Reasons Why The White Sox Are Going to the Playoffs in 2009

On Wednesday night the Chicago White Sox did something that they have only done one other time in 2009: complete a sweep. With a 6-2 victory over the hapless Cleveland Indians, led by another stellar outing from Jose Contreras, the much maligned White Sox of ‘09 moved to 40-38, tied with the Minnesota Piranhas at 3.0 games behind the Detroit Tigers.

The White Sox only other sweep of the season came at the end of May when the Good Guys swept three on the road against the Kansas City Royals. And as KVB and I lament to eachother all of the time, the White Sox never seem to complete sweeps. It always seems like any time we take the first two or three games of a series there is a letdown in the final game. Either the regular lineup sleepwalks through the game, we get a terrible pitching performance, or Ozzie throws out one of his crazy lineups where Brian Anderson is hitting cleanup.

I’m exaggerating…but not by much.

Not yesterday though. Last night, the White Sox continued playing the solid brand of baseball that has propelled them to five straight wins and 12 wins in their last 17 games. Over that same time span, a fan base — and maybe even a team and an entire organization — has been reborn into one that expects, rather than hopes, to be playing baseball in October.

At least that’s how I feel. And hopefully the rest of the South Side is with me. (And if you’re not, I have a few words from Steve Perry I’d like to share with you. That’s right, I went there.)

Truthfully, what has transpired over the last couple of weeks has renewed my faith that the White Sox will ultimately come out on top in a very competitive AL Central. I have to admit that through the ups and downs of this season it has been hard to maintain that faith. Case in point: Ozzie saying that we are in trouble if we have to bring up Gordon Beckham…and then shortly thereafter Beckham gets brought up.

And yes, I realize that the majority of the recent success has come against the inferior National League (and then the even more inferior Indians), so I will grant you that the White Sox haven’t exactly been mowing down the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays; but, the Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Reds are all at least decent teams (especially LA, with our without Manny) so I don’t think you can simply chalk up the White Sox success to playing subpar competition.

No, there are many reasons why the White Sox are winning and the majority of them have to do with the players themselves and the better brand of baseball they are playing.

Will they make the playoffs? I’m not going to make any proclamations and jinx them. (Full disclosure: in preparation for this post I researched Jim Fassel’s infamous playoff guarantee when he was coaching the Giants and had planned on altering it for purposes of my own guarantee here. Then I thought the better of it.) But what seemed like a rather ridiculous conversation a few weeks ago is starting to look more and more realistic.

So in honor of the White Sox 40th victory of the season, and because it is my lucky number (in honor of my favorite basketball player of all-time), here are 40 reasons, in no particular order, why the White Sox have a great shot to win the AL Central and make a return trip to the playoffs in 2009.

1 — Ozzie Guillen. The SI players poll may suggest that other players don’t want to play for him, but his own players do. And they have proven it every year outside of that awful and anomalous 2007. As long as Ozzie is the skipper, I’ll always believe in the White Sox. Paws up.

2 — We actually have a productive 1-2 punch at the top of the order! Most White Sox fans had forgotten what that feels like. 2005 hero Scotty Pods and Sexy Alexei have reminded us over the last 50 or so games. If Podsednik can come close to maintaining his .368 OBP, and if Alexei can continue to put his early season woes behind him (and improve upon his .398 SLG), the White Sox will have the run production and speed they need at the top of the lineup.

3 — We get THE Carlos Quentin back around the All Star Break. Remember him? Mr. Porcelain, but also the best player in the American League through the end of August last year? The White Sox offense has fortuitously been able to find its footing over the last month without him, but no one has forgotten how important Quentin is to the overall makeup of our team. Assuming Quentin can even be 80% of his normal self throughout the rest of the season, he will provide a huge presence that has been sorely lacking.

4 — Jose F*****g Contreras. I love this guy. He’s like a phoenix. Every time you think he’s finished he rises again to prove why he was such a hot commodity upon defecting here from Cuba. And there are few guys that I trust more in big spots than Contreras. He was AWFUL to start the year, but since heading down to the minors he has found his touch again and has given up only 9 runs over five starts that have covered a little over 37 innings.

5 — Mark Buehrle is Mark Buehrle. He’s not always pretty, and he’ll get knocked around every now and then, but the numbers are always there. This year he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s an ace. You have to have one to win division titles, and I’ll just say it: you’re wrong if you don’t think Mark Buehrle is an ace.

6 – Gavid Floyd has become the good Gavin again. Gavin’s season has followed an arc similar to Contreras’. He struggled mightily out of the gate, but look at his game log since May 22. Floyd has not gone less that six innings or given up more than three runs in any start. That’s eight quality starts in a row. Even more exciting is the fact that he hasn’t walked more than three batters in any of those starts either. This guy was the #4 overall pick in 2001 by the Phillies for a reason. We’ve seen why over the past 6 weeks.

7 – John Danks has become the good Danks again. Danks is another pitcher who had an up and down first 6 weeks of the season, but has turned it around. And he’s saved his best outings of the season for his two most important starts thus far: his two outings against the Cubs. Danks gave up one run over 14 innings against the Cubs. Yes, their offense sucks, but Danks has pitched four straight quality starts, going at least seven innings in all four, and the guy proved last year that he’s clutch.

8 – Is the quartet of Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Jose Contreras reminding anyone over the last month or so of another White Sox pitching staff of recent vintage? Eating innings, throwing quality starts almost every time out, and stepping up big in key spots…sounds a lot like the 2005 staff to me. Buehrle and Contreras are the holdovers, but Floyd and Danks have been every bit as good as Garland and Garcia. And remember, neither El Duque or Brandon McCarthy was that great in the fifth spot during the regular season that year. If the pitching continues on its current trend, and we know they are capable, this is a World Series-quality staff.

9 – Gordon Beckham is here and he’s every bit as good as advertised. Yeah, the kid struggled out of the gate, but look at his last seven games: 12-21 with a HR and 6 RBI. We all love Josh Fields and wish he had taken ahold of the hot corner when he had his chance, but Beckham is the future. And he is proving that he just may be the present as well.

10 – Did I mention Carlos Quentin is coming back at the All Star Break?

11 – Aaron Poreda is with the big club now and has not given up a run in his first five innings of work out of the bullpen. He has six Ks and only one BB and has given up only four hits. The Rays received a jolt from their phemon pitcher David Price last year. Could Poreda fill a similar role for the White Sox? He’s certainly had an auspicious beginning.

12 – Bobby Jenks is still one of the best closers in the game, and is as battle tested as anyone not named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The big man has 18 saves on the season and has 28 Ks in 28 innings this year, a drastic improvement upon his sharply declining K rate from last year. He may not have the same gas he had back in 2005, but he is a much better pitcher now. And he’s already proven his stones on the biggest stage.

13 – Still, there are rumors that the White Sox might trade Bobby Jenks before the trade deadline. I do not want to this happen, nor do I think it will now that we’ve reemerged as a legitimate contender. Closers with Bobby’s stuff, talent, moxie, and proven experience do not grow on trees; and it’s rare to see a team get far in October without one. Regardless, on the off chance that we do trade Jenks, we’ve got a great bullpen filled with guys I would have confidence in to take over the role. (But Kenny…if you’re listening…don’t trade Bobby!)

14 – Matt Thornton has had a few rougher outings of late, but is still holding opponents to a .214 average and has struck out 39 batters in 31.2 innings.

15 – Octavio Dotel is walking way too many guys (21 in 30.2 innings) but has 39 strikeouts of his own through 30.2 innings and has successful closing experience in his past.

16 – D.J. Carrasco has come into his own as a very valuable asset in the bullpen. He’s logged 48.2 innings in 26 games and has an ERA under 3.00. He has given up seven runs over his last six outings though, so he needs to get himself back on track. But, as a former starter, he has the arm strength to be a bullpen savior on days when we need one.

17 – Scott Linebrink has not been great this year, but still has an ERA of 2.17 and averages more than a K per inning. He is not closer material — Thornton or Dotel would pick up that slack if Jenks is moved — but he remains a solid option as a setup man.

18 – Regardless of whether or not Kenny trades Bobby (don’t do it!!!), each of those four guys plus Poreda gives the White Sox an outstanding bullpen that I’d put up against any in the league. Still, I think Kenny will hang onto a proven closing commodity like Jenks, so each of the bullpen guys will get to stay in the roles they have been successful in and form one of the most unsung units in all of baseball.

19 – Ken Williams. He has to be listed as a reason why the White Sox can (and will!) make the playoffs. As White Sox fans we may not agree with all of his moves, but we have to give him this: he never stops being proactive to improve our chances. And I think his gameplan entering this season was brilliant. He put together a vet-laden team with a few new additions that, if everything fell right, had a good chance to make the playoffs. But he also has been restocking the farm system to the point where we can all feel pretty secure that when the Buehrle-Konerko-Dye era ends, the White Sox will be okay.

20 – Let’s get back to the offense, because its resurgence is one of the main reasons why the White Sox have started playing better baseball. And the most important cog in the White Sox offensive machine is still Jermaine Dye. As usual, Jermaine is quietly putting up solid numbers (.294, 18 HR, 48 RBI) and providing a steadying and consistent presence in the middle of the lineup. This guy was a World Series MVP in 2005 and was damn close to being the league MVP in 2006. He’s not quite the same player now — age will do that to you — but he is still good enough to be the second best hitter on a team that makes a deep playoff run.

21 – Carlos Quentin, of course, will hopefully resume his role as the best hitter on the team when he returns. And did I mention that he’s coming back around the All Star Break? My apologies if I didn’t. Quentin is coming back around the All Star Break.

22 – Paul Konerko, like Jermaine Dye, is having a solid season in the heart of the order (.290, 13 HR, 49 RBI). Like Dye, Konerko is not as ferocious as he once was, but is still good enough. And like Dye, Konerko has proven himself in clutch situations. I know that the combo of Dye and Konerko may not be all that sexy or exciting, but there is something to be said for battle-tested veterans who are team leaders and the essence of the term “professional hitters.” Paulie is still getting the job done both at the plate and in the field, as is JD.

23 – Chris Getz sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all of the hullabaloo about Gordon Beckham, but Getz is providing something that our lineup has sorely lacked over the last couple of years: speed. He, Scotty Pods, and Alexei all have 11 or more stolen bases. Finally the White Sox have some people who can put a little pressure on other teams with the running game.

24 – AJ Pierzynski will never wow you with his stats, and he’ll do things that make you scratch your head sometimes (like his putrid ground out on the first pitch with the bases loaded at the end of one of our games last week), but he’s scrappy and he’s a winner. AJ comes through in the clutch more than often than not, and is underrated behind the plate (except for his arm, which can’t really be rated low enough). You need a good catcher to win, and the White Sox have one in AJ.

25 – The White Sox also seem to have found a backup catcher. Ramon Castro has blasted two home runs in 21 ABs since joining the team a couple weeks ago and is a guy who has always had monstrous power. Playing half of his games at The Cell with the weather warming up may be just the opportunity he needs to show that he can be a 25-30 HR guy someday. We’ll gladly take production anywhere close to that from our backup.

(BTW…all stats for the last six or seven of these have been taken from the White Sox hompage.)

26 – A couple of curses ended last year and we don’t have to worry about them anymore. The Jim Thome Curse and The Curse of the Douche Bag.

27 – Detroit has only three starters worth a crap (Verlander, E. Jackson, Porcello) and one of them is a 20-year old rookie (Porcello). Yes, Porcello has been very good this year, but how is his arm going to be holding up in September? He supposedly has a great makeup, but he’s never been through the pressure of a pennant race. If the Tigers cannot some more starting pitching, they are going to fall back even further to the pack.

28 – Curtis Granderson (.339 OBP, 18 HR, 13 SB) and Miguel Cabrera (.331 BA, 16 HR, 47 RBI) are really good, and Brandon Inge has certainly rebounded this year (18 HR, 52 RBI) from his subpar 2008, but what do the Tigers have after that? Magglio is on the sharp downside of his career and just is not supplying power anymore. Look at the other names that have chewed up the most ABs for Detroit this season: Placido Polanco, Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, Josh Anderson. Call me crazy, but I’ll take our offense for the rest of the season…especially once Quentin gets back.

29 – By the way, Quentin is coming back at The All Star Break.

30 – Minnesota is the Chicago’s other main competitor in the AL Central, and they have as many holes as Detroit. I do think that Minnesota’s pitching is better than what the numbers show (i.e. Baker’s 4.99 ERA and Slowey’s 4.41 ERA despite better peripherals) but this is a team that needed Francisco Liriano to be be an ace. Detroit has its ace in Justin Verlander and we have ours in Mark Buehrle. Who is it for the Twins? Baker and Slowey and very good #2-#3 starters, but the Twins do not have a guy who has proven he can take the ball and throw a gem in a big spot when the team needs it. Argue if you wish Twinkie fans, but that’s how I see it.

31 – Offensively, Minnesota has been surprisingly balanced this season. Look at the their team stats and tell me you aren’t surprised to see five guys with double-digit homers on the 2nd of July. In addition to the usual suspects (Mauer and Morneau), Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and (*sob*) Joe Crede all have 11 or more dingers. Add in the speed of Denard Span and Carlos Gomez and the Twins have a more dynamic offense than usual that has been able to somewhat compensate for its struggling pitching. However, this is still a team that goes how Mauer and Morneau go, and you may be surprised to learn that both hit below their career averages against the White Sox. In 331 career ABs against Chicago, Morneau (a .284 lifetime hitter) hits only .275. He has a career OPS of .858 that drops to .840 when playing against Chicago. (For the record, his HR rate is almost identical.) As for Mauer, Mr. .400 blah blah blah, he is a .324 career hitter with an OPS of .881. Against the White Sox that drops to .313 and .858. Are Mauer and Morneau terrible against Chicago? No. Have they come up big at certain points against the White Sox in the past? Yes. But they sure as hell didn’t against John Danks in last year’s one-game playoff, and anytime you make those two hit worse than normal you have a great chance to beat Minnesota.

32 – Detroit and Chicago are big-market teams that will make moves at the deadline to improve their chances this year. Minnesota does not have the same luxury. That knocks the Twins down at least a peg in comparison to the Tigers and White Sox.

33 – Take a look at a quick comparison between the aces of the White Sox and the Tigers. In 15 career starts against Chicago, Justin Verlander is 3-9 with a 5.44 ERA. In 27 career starts against Detroit, Mark Buehrle is 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. And, for the record, Buehrle is 23-13 lifetime against the Twins. So Peter Gammons and all of the other baseball analysts can go into the bathroom with a moist towelette and a mental image of Verlander’s incredible “stuff”, but the fact of the matter is that he doesn’t get the job done against his division rival. The underrated Buehrle, of course, does. So, in review: Minnesota has no ace, the Tigers do but he sucks against Chicago, and the White Sox ace (who many people erroneously don’t consider to be an ace) dominates the two best teams in his division. HUGE advantage White Sox.

34 – The White Sox schedule in the second half of September sets up beautifully for a late charge to pull away from the pack. From September 21-27 the White Sox play the Twins and Tigers three times each, all of which are in Chicago. These six games are sandwiched between three at home against Kansas City and then three on the road at Cleveland to end the season. And there is actually a good chance Cleveland will have just called off the season by then, giving the White Sox a three-game sweep by forfeit.

35 – Since the White Sox have no more games against the Rangers, I most likely will not be able to see them play live for the rest of the regular season. This is good because I think the White Sox have a .200 winning percentage in games I’ve attended over the years. When KVB and I go together it’s even worse than that. (Be thankful that we never moved to Chicago and got season tickets.) If the Sox make the playoffs, however, and especially if they go deep, I may not be able to stay away. My apologies in advance.

36 – I know, I know…I’ve left someone out who deserves mention: Jim Thome. Now that the White Sox are back playing in AL parks, Thome has returned to the lineup. He is by no means the masher he was in Cleveland or Philly, but the guy is still a productive hitter (.402 OBP, 13 HR, 42 RBI) and a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. It took me a while, but I’ve fully embraced him as a true Good Guy and he is another one of our battle-tested veterans who heats up with the weather.

37 – Time to address the elephant in the room: defense. This is the White Sox biggest weakness. Currently, there are only five teams in baseball with more fielding errors than the White Sox. And no one has had worse defense at the hot corner than Chicago (17 errors, .922 fielding percentage). With Joe Crede gone and the combo of Josh Fields-Gordon Beckham over there, that is to be expected. But on the bright side, this has no place to go but up. And considering that Gordon Beckham has only been playing third base for about a month, his struggles were anticipated. Most seem to think that he is a good enough athlete to become very good defensively at third. As the season goes along, I think we’ll see his production in the field improve.

38 – Another area on defense where the White Sox have struggled is at shortstop, where Alexei Ramirez recently drew the ire of Ozzie Guillen for lackluster and unfocused play. I definitely see this improving. Alexei has all of the tools to be not just a good shortstop, but a great one. And there is no way Ozzie will allow that position to be a consistent weakness.

39 – Getting back to pitching because I forgot someone: Clayton Richard. On the season he is 3-1 with a 4.48 ERA in 22 games (10 starts). Immediately after stepping into the rotation when Bartolo Colon went on the DL, Clayton strung together three straight excellent starts. I then picked him up on my fantasy team and he hasn’t thrown a quality start since. White Sox fans will be happy to know that I’ve dropped him again, which means that he will likely turn things back around. All kidding aside, Richard is nothing more than a 5th starter right now, but he is adequate. And when Colon comes back to the rotation (if he even does), he gives the White Sox a veteran presence who is still capable of putting up halfway decent numbers. The point is that while the White Sox don’t have a world beater in the 5th slot of the rotation, the guys they are throwing out there aren’t horrible. And with the offense picking things up, we can win with Richard or Colon on the bump. And who knows, maybe Poreda steps in there at some point and provides Porcello-like production. Either way, this slot will not keep up from winning the Central.

40 – And finally, reason #40 why the White Sox can, should, and I think will win the AL Central: the return of Carlos Quentin. Am I putting a lot on his shoulders? Yes. Is there a chance he comes back and gets injured again? Yes. But is his presence in the lineup necessary for this team long-term in 2009? I believe it absolutely is. The White Sox are proving they can without TCQ, but when you get one of the best players in the AL back after an extended absence it cannot be anything but a boon to your chances. And Carlos will have the entire second half of the season to get his timing back. Perhaps this year will be a reverse of last year in that Quentin will save his best for September in 2009. We missed him in September last year, but still found a way to claw our way to a playoff berth. With Quentin in September this year, I think the White Sox have a good chance of heading into the playoffs with momentum and their best all-around player hitting on all cylinders.

Say what you will about the 40 reasons listed above, but one thing is certain: those who stuck a fork in the White Sox a few weeks back did so prematurely. For some reason, people always seem to underestimate the managerial and leadership ability of Ozzie Guillen and the heart, character, and talent in the White Sox clubhouse. The good thing is that the only people who matter (Kenny, Ozzie, and the team) never doubted. Over the last three weeks we have seen why, and White Sox fans have every reason to believe that a return trip to the playoffs is not only possible but, at least in my opinion, very probable.

So sit back, relax, and strap it down, and let’s all enjoy what should be a great three-team race for the 2009 AL Central crown…one that will be made all the more exciting when the White Sox end up repeating as champions.

* – Scott Podsednik photo credit: MouthPieceSports.com

White Sox Defense and Bullpen, Not Wrigley, Making Ozzie Want to Puke on Thursday

Son of a bitch.

Up 5-1 heading in the 8th inning, I was already planning my celebratory post. Then “the best bullpen in baseball” (what idiot said that?) took the ball from Gavin Floyd and it was all downhill from there.

The Cubs scored 4 in the 8th, all unearned, after an error to leadoff the inning by Chris Getz proved costly. Scott Linebrink got the next two Cubs hitters out, but with two gone, Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto went back-to-back to tie it up.

Then, the Cubs tallied another run in the 9th off Matt Thornton on a duck snort by Alfonso Soriano to secure a 6-5 victory and set off a thoroughly annoying rendition some stupid song called “Go Cubs Go” or something like that. Those of us forced to watch the game on WGN were subjected the song and the crowd shots of “the best fans in the world.” Yes, the same fans who were so awesome last year when the Cubs played the Dodgers in the NLDS.

But back to the point: this a game the White Sox have to win if they have serious designs on challenging in the AL Central. Gavin Floyd pitches great, on the heels of a great start by John Danks yesterday, giving up only 1 run and 4 hits through 7 innings. The offense had another solid day manufacturing some runs, with Gordon Beckham having his best day at the plate since being called up (2-2, R, RBI, BB). And Alexei continued being a Cubs killer with an early home run.

But it was all for naught, and Ozzie Guillen has only one group to be making that choke face to: his own clubhouse.

Bad loss White Sox. Now let’s forget about it and take at least two in Cincinnati.

Fantasy Baseball Believe It or Not: Marco Scutaro, Alexei Ramirez, Raul Ibanez, and More

We brought a decent amount of fantasy football coverage to you last season, something we plan to continue next season (details to come soon from Fraschetti). And while I love fantasy football, my favorite fantasy sport has always been fantasy baseball.

The main reason is the contrast between the day-to-day nature of fantasy baseball and the one-day-a-week nature of fantasy football. I like the daily action and the volume of games and stats that occur during the MLB season, allowing for sample sizes large enough for the cream to usually rise to the top. There seems to be much more luck involved in winning at fantasy football. While that is exciting in its own way, my preference will always be fantasy baseball.

So, now that we are nearly a full two weeks into the baseball season, it is time for some fantasy baseball analysis. I realize I am not Matthew Berry or Eric Karabell or any of the other tenured fantasy baseball experts out there, but I’m usually at the top of every league I play and I have a pretty good grasp on how to analyze and project players. So while you never want to trust one just one source of fantasy baseball information as the gospel, I feel confident providing actionable advice for you to take into consideration. With that said, now you can be the judge.

One of the regular features we will have here at MSF is Believe It or Not. Basically, this is just a cliched phrase to describe how we will analyze guys who are perhaps playing above or below expectations, and try to ascertain whether their performance should be believed as an actionable trend moving forward. In this first installment I’m going to analyze some guys on my teams that have surprised me positively or negatively so far this season to determine what I should do with them.

(FYI…I play in Yahoo! leagues for the most part. Position eligibility listed below is based on Yahoo’s method for eligibility determination. Most of the leagues I play are not strict 5×5 leagues, but I’ll try keep my analysis to that basis as it is what most people use.)

Marco Scutaro, Toronto Blue Jays (2B, 3B, SS)

This guy has been unreal. He’s hitting .326 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, and leading the AL in runs with 15. Plus, his OPS is a sick 1.113. Let’s just get one thing out of the way that we all know: if you’re expecting this level of production for the balance of the season, you will be disappointed. Scutaro is a career .262 hitter who has never slugged higher than .397 (in 2006 with Oakland, a season in which he had only 365 ABs).

Scutaro is in his mid-30s, so expecting a career year that is light years ahead of his career averages, the pace he is currently on, is unreasonable. Plus, Marco Scutaro has always been a guy who has played some of his best baseball in April. For his career, April is Scutaro’s second-highest month for BA, his highest for OBP, his second highest for SLG, and his second highest for OPS. And right now, Scutaro has been the beneficiary of great hitting behind him from Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Adam Lind. I think Toronto’s lineup has the potential to be surprisingly solid in 2009, but Lind is unproven over a full year, Aaron Hill is typically a fast starter in terms of power numbers who slows down, and we all know how often Vernon Wells gets hurt.

So, if you’re trying to decide whether Scutaro can be a solid starting MI in a ten-team league, I say don’t believe it. But as a guy who can fill in at three infield positions and be a solid sub in case of injury, he does have value. I am certainly hanging onto him, keeping him in the starting lineup as long as his bat stays hot, but tempering my expectations moving forward.

The fast start by Marco Scutaro: Don’t believe it

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (2B, SS, OF)

For the record, I promise to keep my White Sox bias and man crush on The Cuban Missile (a.k.a. Mr. Grand Slam) out of this analysis.

I don’t think anyone was as controversial before the season as Alexei Ramirez. Some people saw him as a Soriano-like infield stud (from the pre-Cubs days, before he moved to the OF) while some saw Alexei as a one year wonder whose free-swinging ways would lead to a sophomore slump. So far, the naysayers are winning as Alexei has struggled out of the gate with a .143 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBIs, and 2 runs in 35 April ABs.

But guess what? If you looked at Alexei Ramirez’s stats from last April, you would not be so surprised at his slow start. In 29 April ABs in 2008, Alexei hit .138 with 0 HR, 2 RBIs, and 1 run. In case you need a memory jog, Alexei rebounded to finish at .290 with 21 HR, 77 RBI, 65 R, and 13 SB, finishing second to Evan Longoria for Rookie of the Year.

If I were you, I’d go out and trade for Alexei Ramirez right now, especially considering his multi-position eligibility in Yahoo! leagues.

Many owners may be starting to buy into the sophomore slump hype after his slow start, and may not understand that Alexei is most likely just a slow starter and a streaky hitter. Last year, he was dealing with the pressure of fighting for a consistent lineup spot and playing in a new country to go along with his slow start. But his immense natural talent took over and he played great from May on, building to a crescendo of 12 HRs in August and September.

This year, Alexei knows the Sox are committed to him and he is more comfortable in the U.S. The pressure this year is that pitchers know more about him and will try to exploit his free-swinging ways. If your league takes OBP into account, Alexei does not have quite as much value. But in a standard 5×5 league, I still think he will put up top-10 numbers at 2B or SS, meaning he should be a consistent starter.

You may have to ride out a few ups and downs, as his free-wheeling approach at the plate can make him somewhat streaky; but at the end of the year, the numbers will look good and he will provide much better production than, say, Marco Scutaro.

The slow start of Alexei Ramirez: Don’t believe it

Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies (OF)

This is a guy I targeted in all of my drafts as a tremendous value pick, and he certainly has not disappointed. Along with Jermaine Dye, Raul Ibanez is perhaps the most underappreciated fantasy OF of the last half decade, consistently providing value above his draft slot. And he is maintaining his consistency despite his advancing age. Even in Seattle’s cavernous SafeCo Field, Ibanez would have been a good pick. As a lefty hitting in Philadelphia, it was pretty obvious that his value would improve this season.

Just look at Ibanez’s stats over the past three seasons in Seattle:

• 2006: .289 BA, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 R in 626 ABs (career year)
• 2007: .291 BA, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R in 573 ABs
• 2008: .293 BA, 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R in 635 ABs

And now look at his start so far in Philly, where he has a more hitter-friendly park and lineup to work with:

• 2009: .361 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R in 36 ABs

Ibanez is obviously not going to hit .361 for the whole season, but there is nothing about the other numbers that are outside the norm. You can pencil Ibanez in for a BA between .290-.300, 25-30 HR, 100+ RBI, and 100+ R (thanks to the ballpark and lineup improvements). That is set-it-and-forget-it type stuff that gives you consistent confidence at a #2 or #3 OF slot. If you are fortunate enough to have Raul Ibanez as a #3 OF, you are probably going to have a pretty good team.

If I were you, I’d throw out a feeler offer to Ibanez’s owner and see how much that owner values him. Ibanez is not a superstar or all that exciting, so some fantasy players do not realize how golden his consistently high production is. If you have him, and got him relatively late in the draft as a #3 OF, pat yourself on the back and do not part with him easily.

The solid start of Raul Ibanez: Believe it

And now, a few quick hits:

John Danks, Chicago White Sox (SP)

He is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 13 Ks in two starts. I love John Danks in real life and in keeper leagues, and I think the White Sox need to do anything necessary to get him signed for the long-term. From a fantasy perspective in 2009, however, I might see what I could get for him. Danks has already walked 7 batters in his two outings and his significant innings jump from 2007 to 2008 (139 to 195) could be a harbinger of arm troubles later this season. If you trade him, you should definitely get something good because Danks is one of the best young lefties in baseball; but if someone is willing to part with a really solid offensive player, I might try to capitalize on Danks’ hot start and hedge my bets against a second half drop-off.

The hot start of John Danks: Believe it to a degree, but be wary

Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees (SP)

This guy has been awful so far this year. And there are reasons to believe that his problems are more severe than just simply having a slow start and that his best days could be behind him. However, if you need pitching and he is on the waiver wire, think about this: for his career, Wang’s April ERA is a full run higher than his next highest month, which just so happens to be May. So obviously it takes Wang a few months to get the feel for his sinker, but he has been very solid throughout his career from June-September, with his worst month being August (3.81 career ERA, 1.39 career WHIP). Chien-Ming Wang is not a guy I would count on as a #1-#3 starter, but he can be a solid back-of-your-rotation kind of guy if you can stash him away until June.

The slooooow start of Chien-Ming Wang: Don’t believe it completely, but still be wary

Update: And by wary I mean horrifically terrified. Less than five hours after posting this, Chien-Ming Wang dropped a turd of a performance in his first start at the new Yankee Stadium. He gave up 8 earned runs to the lowly Cleveland Indians and couldn’t even get out of the 2nd inning. Perhaps his struggles this year are much more than just a slow start. He may be injured and/or completely messed up mentally and mechanically. If you are going to hang onto Wang, sit him at least until he strings a couple of solid starts together.

(Note: For the record, this is why I hate starting pitchers and always try to build my teams around a solid offense and a couple of proven, consistent closers (i.e. Joakim Soria, who I love and get every year). Starting pitchers can be very hard to project from year to year, or even month to month. You have to either get lucky with a healthy and effective starting staff throughout the year, or have a solid enough offense and bullpen to ride out the volatility of starters.)

And one final player for today:

Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox (OF)

Jason Bay is off to a great start, hitting .344 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, and most importantly only 6 Ks against 11 BBs. Keep in mind, Bay’s career K:BB ratio is 740:408. While Bay’s career numbers suggest that he can’t possibly keep up his nearly 2:1 BB:K ratio, I do think that his improved numbers after the trade to Boston last year foreshadow a great overall season from Bay this year. As a right-handed hitter in a park tailor-made for right-handed power hitters, the move to Boston is the best thing that ever could have happened to Jason Bay. After going at least 30-100-100-10 for two straight seasons in Pittsburgh, Bay was thought of among the elite OFs in the game. He struggled in 2007, but the rebounded last year. I think 2007 was the anomaly and that we’ll see another 30-100-100+ season from Bay in 2009. Keep him if you’ve got him and throw out a feeler trade if you don’t.

The fast start of Jason Bay: Believe it wholeheartedly

That’s it for today. Best of luck to everyone in head-to-head leagues this weekend. Hopefully your guys come through with solid performances to finish the week off strongly. Feel free to throw any questions in comment section and I’ll answer. I’m all about offering my perspective if it can help it any way.

White Sox Ink Gavin Floyd to Win-Win 4-Year, $15.5 Million Deal

Over the weekend the White Sox announced that they had agreed to a 4-year, $15.5 million contract with 26-year old pitcher Gavin Floyd.

According to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune the deal will pay Floyd $750,000 in 2009, $2.75 million in 2010, $5 million in 2001, and $7 million in 2012, with the White Sox holding a $9.5 million option for 2013.

Said Floyd:

“I’m about to get married, and I have a family to look forward to,” said Floyd, who won 17 games last season. “I feel like I made the right decision with my family and my fiance and my agent. We were just trying to figure out what we wanted to do.”

This leaves John Danks and Bobby Jenks as the other high profile, high priority contract negotiations on the docket. According to White Sox GM Ken Williams, “We’re going to do this in stages.”

I am a big fan of the Gavin Floyd deal for a number of reasons.

1. We’ve seen the type of money that teams like the Yankees throw out on pitching every year, and the infamously outlandish contracts that have been signed by the likes of Barry Zito and Mike Hampton. Compared to these deals, Floyd is an absolute bargain and will help the White Sox maintain flexibility when it comes to Danks, Jenks, and other contracts that must be negotiated in the future.
2. The deal is a win-win on both sides. The White Sox lock up one of their top 3 starters for the next four years, with an option for a fifth if Floyd stays healthy and continues to produce like he did last year. For Floyd, he gets a nice chunk of guaranteed change through his 30th birthday, at which point he will still be young enough to sign another significant contract if he is healthy and staying on top of his game.
3. Gavin Floyd probably is not going to compete for Cy Young awards, and he can be hit or miss, but I think he is a guy that can consistently log 200 innings with an ERA around 4.00, and win 12-15 games a year. If he can do that, he is easily worth the money the White Sox have committed to him. If for some reason he implodes and becomes Bad Gavin more often than he is Good Gavin, the White Sox have not sunk so much money into him that it will tie their hands moving forward.

All in all, a good deal on both sides and it ensures that Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd are anchoring the White Sox pitching staff through at least the next three years. Hopefully we can get a similar commitment from John Danks and keep the most underrated 1-2-3 in baseball intact for the foreseeable future.

Who is Aaron Poreda — and How Will He Impact the AL Central in 2009?

Every year, it seems like one of the biggest stories at every Spring Training camp is who will be the #5 starter. Because of expansion, there are now 30 Major League clubs, which means 150 starting pitchers who break camp penciled into their respective team’s rotations. That’s a lot of starting slots to fill, so it makes sense why most teams struggle to find a consistent 5th starter.

The Chicago White Sox in 2009 are certainly no exception.

Heading into Spring Training, one of the up-and-coming candidates being promoted as a possibility to fill the #5 slot for the White Sox behind their healthy and durable triumverate of Mark Buehrle-Gavin Floyd-John Danks was Aaron Poreda.

Now that Poreda has made his first Spring Training appearance, let’s find out who this kid is and assess his chances to break Spring Training in the rotation with the White Sox.

Aaron Poreda Bio and Scouting Report

Aaron Poreda will be 22 years old on Opening Day 2009 and is a 6′6, 240 pound lefty from Walnut Creek, California. He was selected by the White Sox in the 1st round (25th pick) of the 2007 draft and signed by White Sox scout Adam Virchis. Since being drafted, Poreda has certainly made a name for himself and developed a reputation as a major piece of the White Sox future.

After a successful college career at the University San Francisco, during which Poreda posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his three seasons, Poreda pitched in 46.1 innings of rookie ball at the age of 20. In those 46.1 innings, Poreda went 4-0, had a 1.17 ERA, and a K/9 ratio of 9.3, while walking only 10 batters. His WHIP was a sterling 0.84.

Certainly a very auspicious beginning.

In 2008, Poreda’s first and only full season in the minor leagues, he shuffled between high-A ball and AA Birmingham. At Winston-Salem, Poreda pitched 73.1 innings and amassed a 3.31 ERA and a 5-5 record. His K rate dropped to only 5.6 per 9 innings and his WHIP rose to a still solid 1.16. In AA Birmingham, Poreda pitched 87.2 innings, had an ERA of 2.98, a K/9 rate of 7.4, and a WHIP of 1.17.

So for his brief minor league career thus far, Aaron Poreda is 12-9 with a 2.69 ERA in 207.1 innings, with a K/9 rate of 7.2 and a WHIP of 1.10. All very good numbers, and certainly predictors of future success.

Additionally, Poreda was rated the #1 prospect in the White Sox entire system in 2008 by Baseball America. In the 2009 Baseball America Top Prospects list, Poreda is third for the White Sox, behind 2008 #1 draft pick SS Gordon Beckham and Cuban signee 3B Dayan Viciedo, but is still listed as the #63 prospect overall.

According to MinorLeagueBaseball.com, Aaron Poreda has a plus-plus fastball that sits comfortably at 95-96 mph and sinks and runs, while still catching the plate for strikes. They list his slider and changeup as fair, but in need of plenty of work. (It looks like this report is from 2007, so perhaps his other pitches have improved since then to better complement his obviously wicked fastball).

In his first outing this spring, Poreda started off slowly by giving up a homerun and a single to the first two batters (Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson), but then recovered to retire the next six batters. Most importantly, he threw first pitch strikes to 7 out of the 8 batters he faced.

From a Mark Gonzalez report at the Tribune’s website about the first 2009 appearance by Aaron Poreda:

“I was able to force contact, and sometimes when you force contact you’ve got to tip your hat because [Furcal] hit the ball pretty far,” Poreda said. “After that I recuperated and kept throwing strikes.

“I could have thrown a few better sliders, a changeup, but all in all I was happy with the outing. I didn’t give in, stayed strong and ended on a positive note.”

Poreda’s fastball was clocked in the 91-93 m.p.h. range. He struck out two and didn’t walk a batter, coming back from a 3-0 count to retire one hitter.

So apparently the slider and changeup are still a work in progress. The other interesting note in the 2007 scouting report mentioned above is that Poreda is “new to being good. Players who come out of nowhere like he has (with the jump in velocity, especially) have to get used to being dominant. Once he grows accustomed to that, his poise should improve by leaps and bounds.”

It will be interesting to watch how Poreda fares the rest of this spring. Based on his history and scouting report, it sounds like another year in the minor leagues could help Poreda develop his secondary pitches and confidence. I am sure that if the White Sox have their druthers, this is exactly what will happen.

But there is a reason that people have been talking about Poreda as a potential answer to the questions the White Sox have at the back end of their rotation. And the reason is that despite the improvements Poreda still needs to make, he is already a very good pitcher; and the White Sox need someone to fill Javier Vazquez’s slot in the rotation and someone else to fill in until Jose Contreras is ready to go.

So, will Aaron Poreda break camp in the White Sox rotation?

It does not appear likely — and the reasons why have nothing to do with Poreda not being capable, and much more to do with some great early news the White Sox have received about their other rotation options.

Chicago White Sox 2009 Pitching Rotation

First off there is Jose Contreras, who was originally expected back sometime around the All-Star break after surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles ended his 2008 season prematurely. Now there is talk that Contreras could be ready for Opening Day. He made a splash by reporting to camp lighter and in great shape, and Ozzie Guillen has already said that as soon as Contreras is healthy and ready go, he is taking the ball every fifth day.

Another major question mark heading into camp was veteran pitching behemoth Bartolo Colon, the 5′11, 245-pound former Cy Young winner (and former White Sox pitcher, in 2003) signed by the White Sox this offseason. Ozzie Guillen has already said that he feels confident defending the 2008 AL Central crown with Contreras and Colon manning the back end of the rotation. The question, of course, will be health and availability.

According to Chisox.com, both Colon and Contreras are scheduled to throw three days next week, with two additional side sessions scheduled for the week after. They are then both tentatively scheduled to pitch an inning in a game if all goes well. White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper knows what Colon can bring to the rotation:

“I’ll tell you what we are talking about,” Cooper said. “This is the second half of his career, and Bartolo is now trying to prove he can go from a pure power guy to a guy who still can pitch with real solid stuff.

“Remember, there’s nothing he can’t do with a baseball. He can cut it, slice it and dice it. He’s like Popeil’s pocket pitcher. He can do it all. He might be able to even core an apple.

“If he gets healthy, then you got a chance to win ballgames on that fourth or fifth day. He’s a proven guy, and we all know he knows how to pitch. He certainly has the heart and the [guts].”

Basically, if Contreras and Colon are ready to go on Opening Day, they will be in the rotation. If one of them is not ready, it appears that Clayton Richard could be one of the first in line for the open slot. Richard gained valuable experience filling in for Contreras last season, starting 8 games. He certainly did not set the world on fire, going 2-5 with a 6.04 ERA, but he is 25 and more experienced than the other options. Richard will assume a prominent spot in the White Sox bullpen as a long reliever whenever both Contreras and Colon are ready, so the Sox may be willing to give him the first crack at any open rotation slots.

And another name to keep an eye on is Jeff Marquez, acquired in the offseason from the Yankees in the Nick Swisher trade. Marquez is 24, and has over 100 innings more experience than Poreda in the minors. He has a sinker than has drawn comparisons to former White Sox pitcher Jon Garland, and his arsenal also includes a changeup, curve, and slider. So while he may not have the potential of Poreda, he could be more “Major League ready” right now.

In his first spring outing, Marquez pitched two hitless innings against the Cubs and impressed Ozzie Guillen, according to a report by Scott Merkin:

“He threw the ball pretty good, but I don’t think he was sharp enough for the first time,” said White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen of Marquez. “But Marquez really impressed me. I was happy with what I saw.”

So in reality, it is quite possible that Aaron Poreda is currently 8th in line for starts with the White Sox in 2009. He is undoubtedly projected to be in the White Sox rotation in 2010, but for the purposes of this post we are just looking at 2009. My best guess is that Aaron Poreda begins the year in AAA, and the best case scenario for the White Sox is that he stays there all year because Contreras and Colon are healthy and effective.

But I have this funny feeling that Aaron Poreda is going to play an important role for the 2009 White Sox, perhaps not early on but maybe later in the year. Just like last season when Contreras went down, you can never predict injuries. And the truth is, the White Sox rotation has been one of the most durable rotations in baseball since 2005. Look at the numbers of total starts made by the top 5 White Sox pitchers each of the last four years:

• 2005: 154 out of 162
• 2006: 161 out of 162
• 2007: 152 out of 162
• 2008: 153 out of 162

Over four years, the pitchers in the White Sox rotation have missed only 28 starts. That is a phenomenal level of durability, and I remember hearing a stat somewhere that it was the best in baseball over that time period.

But will it continue in 2009? We know how durable Mark Buehrle has been, and there is no reason not to pencil him in for 30+ starts this season. John Danks started at least 21 games in each of his last three seasons in the minors and has been durable as a major leaguer. Gavin Floyd has also shown tremendous durability during his professional career. And last season was the only full season of Jose Contreras’ major league career that has has started less than 30 games.

So as usual, assuming Contreras is healthy and ready for the long haul, the White Sox top 4 of the rotation appears locked in stone for the entire season.

Bartolo Colon, however, is another story. He started 7 games last year, 18 in 2007, and 10 in 2006. Before that, he started at least 30 games for 8 straight seasons. But how many innings can Colon pitch this season, when the most he has pitched in any season since 2005 is 99 1/3? All White Sox fans are hoping that Bartolo Colon can regain his Cy Young form of 2005, but 150-160 innings out of Colon may be about the maximum we can realistically expect.

If that is the case, someone will have to pick up some of the slack. And with a few more months of seasoning, it very well could be Aaron Poreda that steps up to do it.

While Clayton Richard and Jeff Marquez have more experience, a more developed overall repertoire of pitches, and perhaps even more confidence and moxie on the mound, Poreda clearly has the best fastball and the most overall talent. If Poreda can add some consistency to his secondary pitches during Spring Training, and develop confidence with a few good months in AAA, he could provide a huge shot in the arm for the White Sox later in the season.

The way I look at it, whatever transpires as 2009 unfolds will be a positive for the White Sox. If Poreda stays in AAA all year, it means that Colon is getting the job done and staying healthy. If Colon falters, and Richard or Marquez can’t make the most of an opportunity, then Poreda will come up and pitch. And based on the velocity and movement of his fastball, plus his brief but successful track record, he should certainly be able to have success in his first time around the league — even if his other pitches or confidence are not quite yet up to par.

So the final conclusion is this: Aaron Poreda probably won’t break camp with the White Sox, but he could very well still play a huge role in their 2009 success. Regardless, White Sox fans can get excited that even if our current lefty ace actually does retire or move to St. Louis after the completion of his current contract, we have another potential lefty ace for the next decade waiting in the wings.

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Jeff Marquez photo credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Aaron Poreda second photo credit: Bill Mitchell/MLB.com

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Other Sox links:

Marquez makes fine debut, but look out for #2 — (Sox Machine)

Do White Sox have surprising starter depth? — (South Side Sox)

Sox like their young group of sluggers — (Phil Rogers, Tribune)

Lou Piniella won’t take Ozzie Guillen’s phone calls — (MLB FanHouse)

Contreras and Jenks in the headlines — (The White Sox Blog)

Chicago White Sox 2008 Season Ends with Reasons For Optimism

I wanted to post last night. I really did. But I was shocked, surprised, and disappointed by the White Sox loss at home to the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 of ALDS that I decided I would wait a day. I wanted to let the agony yesterday sink in and coalesce with the general excitement I felt for most of the season. I did not want to post something negative if the disappointment would only be temporary. But I also did not want to give the White Sox the blogging equivalent of a handjob if their accomplishments for this season, and the prospects for the future, did not deserve it.

So I decided to wait until the morning, and as crushing as last night’s loss was, I still feel pretty positive about the White Sox. I certainly feel positive about this season. As I recall, most of the pundits were picking the White Sox to finish 3rd or 4th in the division. Cleveland and Detroit were the “it” teams in the offseason. Way to step it up Indians and Tigers. I remember talking with KVB at the start of the year, recalling how every time the White Sox are picked to do nothing we end up having a good season: 2000, 2005, 2008, just name a few seasons. With the additions of Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera I thought this team could be better. And it was, because we all remember how God-awful 2007 was.

And even though the White Sox flamed out in the first round, with a 1-3 series loss to the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, I consider this season to be resounding success. Here are three key reasons why:

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John Danks – Dewayne Wise Lead White Sox to Game 3 Win

John Danks on the mound, at home, facing elimination. Only this time there was room for error.

Dewayne Wise lead the powered-down offense with a double, two RBI and a stolen base as the White Sox scored five runs off of Matt Garza using something that hadn’t been present in the first two games – smallball.

Looking more like the Rays on the bases, the White Sox swiped three bases, usually their two week total, and scored all their runs without the aid of the home run. Danks, coming off his tiebreaker gem against the Minnesota Twins, pitched well enough to hand the ball over to three relievers who then sealed the deal.

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Chicago White Sox Win Game Three Over Tampa Bay Rays

The Chicago White Sox have played four games in the past week in which they faced the end of their season with a loss. They have won all four of those games. Two of these elimination games were started by young lefty John Danks, and he is 2-0. Paws up, indeed!

John Danks pitched 6-2/3 innings in today’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays in another blackout at U.S. Cellular Field. Danks was not as sharp as he was on Monday night against the Twins, getting into significant trouble in both of the first two innings. Yet, he battled and was consistently able to make the necessary pitches to get himself out of jams. Other than B.J. Upton’s 7th inning home run that cut a 5-1 lead to 5-3, none of the Rays hitters could really make solid contact off of Danks. For the game, Danks gave up three earned runs, seven hits, walked three, and struckout seven.

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White Sox – Tampa Bay Rays ALDS – Game Three Preview

(Read this article and then head on over to White Sox – Rays livecast)

The White Sox go into their Game Three matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays in U.S. Cellular Field this afternoon with their backs firmly against the wall. This Sunday, Chicago finds itself in the exact same position it was in last Sunday: win or go home. Assuming the White Sox can win today (and I am) they will be in the same position tomorrow: win or go home. The question is, can they take today’s game? Before we look at some reasons why they can, here are the particulars:

Date/Time/Venue: Today, October 5 – 3:07 Central Time at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago

TV: TBS

Radio: ESPN Radio

Next Game: Monday, October 6 – 4:07 Central Time

So, why am I so confident that White Sox will win today?

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Chicago White Sox – Tampa Bay Rays | Pitching Matchups And Predictions

Earlier this week I posted the schedule for the White Sox-Rays first round playoff matchup. We knew the days and most of the times, but did not know who would be pitching for the White Sox and when. The Monday game versus Detroit and the Tuesday one-game playoff versus Minnesota forced the White Sox to throw their top three pitchers (Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks) on three days’ rest, Floyd and Danks for the second time in a little over a week. White Sox fans were left to wonder how Ozzie Guillen would schedule his pitchers for the Tamp Bay series.

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White Sox: Happy to be here

After the bell rang this afternoon, I started humming “Go, Go White Sox”. I turned to one of my students (Writing here on the site doesn’t really pay the bills. I am a 5^th grade teacher on the Southside.) and said, “You know where I was last night?”

He said, “The White Sox game?” as he stuffed his books away.

“Yes, I was.”

The place was electric. From the moment I crossed 43^rd St. coming north, you could tell that the fans were out and ready. I arrived ticketless but ready to rock and roll. When I stepped off my bike, gearing up to patrol the strip for scalpers my old levi’s tore straight down the front. I instantly became a hot dog vendor. Not a good start but I was dedicated and decided to head back home for new pants, with only a mile to go it was the right choice. Rd. 2. I park the bike, relieve myself from the saddle gingerly, as to ensure the integrity of my crotch and quickly find a ticket out in 507, eye level with the right field foul pole. Thunderstruck rang clear in my ears and the 40,354 fans put out the lights with the “blackout”.

Danks on the mound. The Sox killer from last series Danard Span at the dish. Strike one, looking. I follow with a hearty Tiger Woods fistpump and settle down in my seat. Pitch two, ball. I signal the beer man to help quell my nerves but that was the only beer I needed because from then on Danks took over. He threw 12 first pitch strikes and was ahead in almost every count. That alone kept the fans in the game, the team’s confidence up and Danks on the mound. It felt like he had the Twins one step behind every move he made. Each time they tried to catch up he would step further and at one point in the 7^th inning a guy behind me said, “He’s thrown 6 pitches to get the last four outs.” It was true, between the 7^th and 8^th Danks got Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Delmon Young only throwing 6 pitches. That’s two All-stars, a DH and a hot left fielder on pitches 88 through 94.

He was engulfed in flames and proved his mental toughness more than anything, stepping up on short rest in a huge game against a club that you watched shell your team, and gave up 2 hits in 8 full innings of baseball.

Then there was the play. The play that sent beers, cell phones and hats flying (all three in my direction, but welcome). The play that made every cent of Junior’s contract worth it. I would venture to guess that there are only a handful of players who could throw out a runner at home perfectly from dead center field. Even fewer who could do it with the runner coming from third, and only some greats who can do it in moments like the Kid did then. On that 5^th inning flyout from Brendan Harris, the entire stadium gripped their rally towel and clenched their teeth, willing the ball into AJ’s glove. Griffey made the most beautiful connection with a catcher that I will ever see. That was the moment when it seemed that Twins baseball would get under our skin. They roped a double, advanced a runner on a pop out and wanted the lead at the half. They came up empty handed and every ounce of momentum was in our dugout. We felt almost invincible. All we needed was the bats to ignite.

Then there was something in the air. Something was communicated to Jim Thome that hadn’t been there. A sense of reliability and confidence. The fans told Jimmy, “We need you big guy. Do it.” He did it for 464 feet straight down the pike. It wasn’t much but it was a lead. That’s all we wanted. He had been cold, taking his usual walks and getting on base here and there but not lighting it up in any way. Not posing a major threat to any hurler he was batting .240 coming in. He was slightly better after pitch five from Nick Blackburn.

Then, there was the short and round, the boom, the boy from the south. He went one, two, three and on some Bad Ass heroics from BA ended the 9^th.

Check out the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8sgSSeDKwY

The Twins walked off having been burned, Toby Hall strapped on a ridiculous pair of ski goggles and the champagne rolled. The stands looked like Oktoberfest, cheering singing, swaying. Men were embracing. Old women from Oak Lawn, high fiving Bros making the trek from Champaign and a priest dancing behind me. The concourse to the parking lot were the same. It was like we had won the ALCS. It affirmed so much.

We really wanted to get this far. We wanted to know that our divisional lead that had weathered the year wasn’t going to be robbed from us. We didn’t want to face the meltdown. Everyone saw what it does to Mets’ fans, we don’t need that. Especially with the echo of that ridiculous “Go, cubs, Go” drifting south from Armitage. A win last night let us breathe a major sigh of relief. We didn’t have to face the ribbing of the Northsiders or visions of Twinkies celebrating on our field. It also proved that we can have some stellar performances from some great baseball players. Down the stretch, guys who were labeled question marks and caught the criticism of many fans and media, stepped up somewhere, somehow and did work enough to get us on a plane to St. Pete and like fans at a 163^rd game, we’re just happy to be here.

Chicago White Sox Win AL Central – Beat Minnesota Twins

by Jerod Morris

The White Sox did it! I apologize in advance if this post is a little haphazard. I am absolutely going nuts right now. John Danks pitched out of his mind, Jim Thome broke the Thome Curse (which may or may not have ever existed anyway), and Bobby Jenks came in and dominated in the 9th.

The Chicago White Sox will now take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Thursday in Tampa. I believe the game is at 2:30 ET and on TBS. I’ll confirm that later tonight or tomorrow.

Wow. What a game tonight. I’m not even going to get into previewing the Rays series, or talking about pitching rotations, anything. It’s a good night to just sit back and savor three great wins by the White Sox when our backs were against the wall. Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks stepped up and pitched huge, and we got big contributions from different people each game.

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