There are plenty of injuries that are plaguing some of the league’s best players.  It is important to stay on top of every player’s health and make adjustments at the right time.

With that said, let’s get to this week’s Hitting Planner. Read, digest, and set your lineups accordingly.

Catcher

Among those with catcher eligibility who are heating up, none are hotter than teammates Victor Martinez and Alex Avila.  Owners have the luxury of keeping one of these guys on the team because even though they play on the same team, neither player is going to take away from the other’s playing time. 

Nick Hundley is another player gaining the trust of the owners out there this week with his strong play over the last week with a four-hit game and an overall spike in his production.

There are two players that we want you to bench because the production is way down.  Miguel Montero has suffered a slump that has him striking out a lot with almost no power.  The second is J.P. Arencibia, with an average well below .200; but there is a possibility that he could rebound with a weak schedule on the way.

First Base

Gaby Sanchez doesn’t look to have his best week as a fantasy player, as he goes through some tough pitchers, so it is time to look in another direction.  That direction could be in the way of Mike Carp.  His series against Cleveland wasn’t anything to drool over but the hit-streak he had was no fluke.  Get him in your lineup as soon as you can.

Some other hot players include Mitch Moreland, James Loney, and Garrett Jones.

First base is somewhat boring this week.  As expected, runaway AL MVP Adrian Gonzalez heads the list of fantasy 1^st basemen but Joey Votto is not far behind with multi-RBI games.

Second Base

Who is Orlando Hudson?  Probably the person who is killing you week-to-week as of late.  The San Diego Padre has solid stats all across the board and his availability is still high.

Time is running out, so bold moves are necessary.

Everyone was so excited for Jason Kipnis and his outbreak a couple weeks ago, but he just cannot seem to get healthy under any circumstance.  At this point of the season it is better to just let him go. 

Kelly Johnson is only hitting .150 over the last 20 games.  Keeping him on anywhere near your team is not a good idea.

Continuing 2^nd basemen struggles, added to the list are Justin Turner and Howard Kendrick who have not had their early season form.

Third Base

Mark Reynolds has streaky player written all over him.  When he’s hot, he is almost an elite option, but when he is cold, then he is simply painful to watch.  Same goes for Edwin Encarnacion.  Right now he is on the hot side of his streaky play and benching him right now would not be an ideal situation.

Must starts include David Wright, Pablo Sandoval and Ryan Zimmerman.

A lot of people want to jump back on the Chipper Jones bandwagon, but it is better to think with your head on this one and not with your fantasy heart.

The real news is about Alex Rodriguez.  He has just returned the Yankee lineup and it is better to monitor his play before you thrust him back into the lineup.  For the year he is only ranked as the 11^th 3^rd basemen.  Does that sound like an elite player to you?

Shortstop

Not that it means much, but I saw Asdrubal Cabrera out among the young crowd this week and it looks like he was in high spirits.  It could be a hunch, but a big week could be in store for all the lucky Cabrera owners.

The veteran poise of Derek Jeter is showing through as his late season numbers are looking good.  He is batting almost .500 over the last 10 games, and since he had hit number 3,000 the numbers have been through the roof.  Hitting at a clip of .345 with a slew of runs and RBIs has owners a lot to be happy about.

Just a friendly reminder to those who may not know, but two of the top 5 shortstops, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes, are both on the DL.  We might not see much of these guys for the rest of the season so get your eggs out of these baskets now. 

Ian Desmond still doesn’t have the elite batting average that owners want out of their shortstop but his runs scored and stolen bases keep him afloat.

Outfield

It seems like the Indians have trouble with their most important players.  Shin-Soo Choo came back from injury with a bang but he has problems again.

In a down year, Ichiro Suzuki hasn’t been like himself but a small hit-streak with a bunch of runs and stolen bases sure sounds nice.

Some players who are heating up include Casper Wells, Adam Jones, Angel Pagan and Carlos Gonzalez.  Then we have some players who are down on their luck including Vernon Wells, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Corey Hart and one of the worst slumps goes to Andre Ethier who is hitting .059 over the last 7 games.  Not something you want to deal with.

Even though Joe Mauer is a must start for catchers, he could gain eligibility in the outfield by the end of the season.  That probably will not mean a lot to you owners but it is something to know.    

Some teams may need a bat, while others need pitching, causing a specific player to change from the NL to AL and vice versa.These changes may not affect your team in any extreme way, baseball, like other sports, is a game of inches. 

There are roughly 60 games left for each team which leaves about 9-10 weeks of the regular season left.Now the heat is on, literally.

In this post, I look past this weekend and into next week to give you a head start on the hitters you should be targeting on waivers and starting/sitting in your lineups.

Catcher

Joe Mauer receives our attention again this week but it’s not because of his 6 for 8 day against Cleveland.Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire is doing all he can to get Mauer playing time at 1^st base and as he continues to do so, his eligibility for the position should open up. 

The number one man behind the plate this week is Matt Wieters thanks to a couple of multi-hit games against Cleveland and Boston.That luck may run out with 7 straight away games in 6 days. 

Humberto Quintero should see extending playing time do to a roster shuffle in Houston.He was been filling the role nicely, with .400 plus average along with an increasing number of RBIs and homeruns. 

Big time players should step up in big games but this isn’t necessarily the case for Russell Martin as he has seemed to disappear in meaningful series. 

Two players having a down week who should be avoided are Kurt Suzuki and Jonathan Lucroy.

First Base

Wow.That’s the only way I can describe Blue Jays’ hitting at this time and they are getting big contributions from Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind. 

Good times continue to roll along for Freddie Freeman as he inches closer to the 100% owned mark.There are no signs of him slowing down so it would be best to ride the hot streak. 

Going up against the Tigers’ Verlander and Scherzer followed up with series against the Red Sox and Yankees could put Paul Konerko into a 9-10 game slump that is going to leave a lot of managers unhappy. 

There is a lot to like about what Mark Teixeira does in the power department but everyone knows that his average is on the low side which leaves you with a decision to make.  If the power isn’t present for a few games, he presents little to no value due to his current limitations at the plate.

Second Base

Jemile Weeks is dealing with a couple nagging injuries but he should be ready to go by the time the new scoring period hits so there is no reason to fret as he should be back in action soon.

It looks like Dan Uggla has the same issues as some other hitters throughout the league: great power but poor average.His average is up 90 points this month alone, and if it can stay up there he very well may be the best player at the position. 

Here are some surprise players who look to have a big week ahead of them: Orlando Hudson, Gordon Beckham and Aaron Hill continue to be some of the best options at the position since the break. 

At the beginning of the year, Darwin Barney looked like the best fantasy 2^nd basemen in the game.Now that we are 100 games in, that doesn’t seem to be the case so if your team is looking for more scoring, this may be the position you look for some help.

Third Base

Aramis Ramirez is on the radar for a lot of different teams who want his services.He doesn’t want to go anywhere though and prefers to stay in Chicago.He has been tearing it up this month, and it’s fair to say that he will tune out the rumors and continue to produce at a high level. 

There is no doubt that Eduardo Nunez is a capable hitter for the Yankees when he replaces players like Alex Rodriguez, but will his horrible fielding allow him to stay on the field?  It wouldn’t be wise to have him on your squad as he could be gone at any moment. 

For the very small percentage of you who owned Orioles’ Josh Bell, make a move with him because he got sent back town to Triple-A.Same goes for Colorado’s Ian Stewart.He has been back and forth between the big leagues and Colorado Springs and hasn’t been able to keep his spot. 

Casey McGehee’s production has been a crapshoot to say the least.He started the second half of the season off with some terrible games but followed it up with a few multi-hit efforts.If his hitting starts to dip again this weekend, then it may be the time to show him the bench or get rid of him all together because it looks as if the Brewers are going to do so.

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins is back!While this is a fantasy no-brainer, managers have to be excited about the 9 multi-hit games in only 15 contests. 

Even with the little work that he has done, Jesus Guzman has numbers that deserve attention.  His teammate Jason Bartlett who also has shortstop eligibility is playing at a high level as well.  The two won’t compete for playing time even though they are at the same position for fantasy.  Once Guzman plays enough games at 1^st, managers will be able to play him there. 

As long as Brendan Ryan continues to hit for a decent average and scores runs, he could be serviceable to those of you looking for a mediocre option at short. 

Alexei Ramirez is a good hitter, no doubt about it, but this is the week where it looks like he could use a rest on your bench.The reasoning?  Scroll up a little and see the problems that his teammate Paul Konerko is going to experience this scoring period. 

If you are looking for someone else to sit down then that would be Rafael Furcal.  The question would be as to why you have him on your team in the first place?

Outfield

There are a few players who will be HOT:

• Josh Reddick made the most of his playing time, and if it continues to be steady then he will produce.  
• Chris Heisey is going up against two of the worst staffs in MLB this year this next scoring period.  
• Jason Heyward: amidst his sophomore slump, the Braves youngster looks like he may finish the season strong as he has found his bat after the break.  

The ones who are NOT:

• Adam Jones: will only play in 5 games due to a double header against the Yanks.
• Carlos Quentin: see any White Sox player in this article. 
• Carl Crawford:he is only batting .125 against the Red Sox biggest foe and they come to town for a critical three game series.

The surprise player of this week is Will Venable.Position battles are always interesting, especially when the player is being called up from the minors.His average has jumped up 30 points since June and he has been increasing his power steadily.While he isn’t a great option now, he could be more than serviceable down the road.

Will that winner be you?

Who knows. Take a look at the week’s hitting planner and prepare your squads for victory.

Catcher

For anyone who follows the Reds, there is a noticeable change in the way that catchers are handled. Instead of switching things up on a daily basis, players like Ramon Hernandez are enjoying the two- to three- day rotation.  Can’t argue with a .322 average and 10 home runs while only playing in 53 games.

Staying in the NL Central, Michael McKenry is in a good position. The Pirates are in the midst of an unusually good season and one must believe that his play should stay at a high level.

Trivia! I am hitting a career low .243, I have ZERO home runs, jus NINE RBIs, and have an owned percentage of 100…so who am I?  Don’t take this as a bashing of Joe Mauer, but his production is simply terrible and a lot of it has to do with the injuries.

Someone else who should get a shot first is John Buck who is the third ranked catcher over his last seven games and has a favorable matchup against a further depleted Mets staff.

First Base

Let’s compare two players who offer similar end production but go about it in different ways.

First is Joey Votto, who offers a .324 batting average to go along with 59 runs scored this year; his home run and RBI numbers are down a little in comparison to last year, but managers know that he can have a big game at anytime. Next we have Ryan Howard.  While he does rank near the top of league in power departments, he is hitting near a career low of .257, and his OPS is a dismal .828.  If you had to chose between the two it looks as if Votto is the better all-around hitter.

Going into the break, Freddie Freeman was one of the hottest players at 1^st base and looks to keep the trend going as play resumes.

If you were afraid that Albert Pujols came back too early from injury, then you might want to retract that statement and get him back into the starting lineup.

Maybe Adam Dunn will have a better second half of the season.

Second Base

It’s easy to argue that Robinson Cano is the best 2^nd basemen in baseball right now. Will his historic effort in the Home Run Derby help or hurt his production? We think he will be riding high. 

Ben Zobrist has rebounded greatly from his slow April and May. If you have him on your squad, look for some top-5 production for the rest of the year.

Slipping to the five spot came with some growing pains for Howard Kendrick, but he showed some comfort just before the break and those RBI numbers should jump a little with the lineup change.

The excitement of the trade of Mark Ellis has dwindled just a little since coming over from the A’s, but it is hard to deny the benefits of playing in Coors Field.  Give him a few games to get settled in to his new home before too many judgments are made.

It may seem bold but Chase Utley should see the bench while Aaron Hill starts to heat up.

Third Base

Emilio Bonifacio’s popularity has skyrocketed lately with his hitting and stolen base numbers improving. He has eligibility all over the field but we’ll peg him here for now. The time to acquire him is running out so you know what needs to be done. What also needs to be done is putting him in your lineup in place of Chase Headley, who is not in the top 25 for fantasy 3^rd Basemen over the last seven days and is dinged up.

What’s the deal with Ryan Zimmerman?  If there is anyone who feels that they have a reason as to why he has an owned percentage of 100 with a .254 average, four home runs, and 15 RBIs (which ranks 28^th at the position) please feel free to comment below.

Good news comes out of Minnesota with the name of Danny Valencia. Yes he has had a few difficult months hitting for average, but he has started the first half of July with a bang and a 1.010 OPS to boot.  Same goes for Ryan Roberts.  He is showing good power numbers with a low average, but the only difference here is that he is losing playing time to teammate Sean Burroughs.

Shortstop

Derek Jeter took care of business the best way he could with a 5-5 game on the night of his 3,000^th hit. While that may have happened, Hanley Ramirez proves to be the much better choice when it comes to fantasy. Not that you didn’t know that already.

Strangely, Tsuyoshi Nishioka hits much better when playing shortstop than he does when playing 2^nd.  The Twins like him there and it looks like the success should continue.

Even though Asdrubal Cabrera’s home run numbers have fallen off after the first couple months of the season, he has come back off the break strong to start the second half.

A lot of owners like Ian Desmond, but there is not much to benefit when there hasn’t been an RBI in the month of July. Also, he is only hitting .216 this month to go along with the .223 yearly mark.

Outfield

Travis Snider has made the most of his time since being called up from the minors, as he has established himself as the best outfield option over the last seven days. Things obviously won’t stay this way for long, but he could be the surprise of the second half.

Along with Snider, teammates Rajai Davis, Eric Thames, and Jose Bautista were also ranked in the top 10 fantasy hitters at the position this week.  So, four Blue Jays in the elite group of hitters are certainly reminiscent of last year’s home run champs.

For an all around game, look no further than Nyjer Morgan. This Brewer has good batting average and decent power numbers to go along with an above average ability to steal bases.  Milwaukee is improving as a team so there is no doubt in my mind about him being a valuable asset to almost anyone out there.

On the flip side there are some players who’s hitting has been on a downward trend and they are: Lance Berkman, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran and Alfonso Soriano.

I did my happy dance and psyched myself up to relax and watch my first TV showing of the Twins.

Ok, I lied. I watched the Twins on TV twice last weekend while in Minnesota, but it was different. I was always in a social atmosphere and was only watching to pay attention to the score. I was excited to focus solely on the game to see what I could learn from the commentators and watching up-close action.

And I made a huge discovery: I solved the mystery of why women swoon over Joe Mauer.

Gentlemen, pay attention. This is good for you to understand.

Before I unravel this mystery, I want you to understand that I do not get caught up in the looks or “Hollywood” features of sports. I watch and follow a sport because I love the game and the team I support.

With that being said, yes, I can recognize the fact that Mauer is an attractive man. Was I obsessing over his good looks like perhaps some people I know were? No. I find an athlete attractive when he is both nice on the eyes AND he has talent. Up until last night, I haven’t seen much of the latter from Mr. Mauer.

Last night, I got it.

The beauty of watching any sport on television is you get an up-close view of the players and the play. As I watched each player step up to the plate or man their territory in the field, I realized many of the players looked…old. When you are looking close to Brett Favre’s age, I’m tempted to yell at my TV screen, “Put down the glove and call it a game, Grandpa”. However, the more players I saw, the more I realized this was the norm in baseball.

Of course, they are still exceptional athletes. But why do they look so old? Maybe it’s because the best baseball players are over the age of 30. I am used to football players who have a good chance of starting and making it big in their early 20s.

Either way, it is all starting to make sense. Now I understand why so many women fall for a ball player like Mauer. He’s got almost no competition. And when he’s making plays, it only boosts his “hotness” score. (Ok I know some may say J.J. Hardy is right up there.)

You tell me–would women pick:

A) A great baseball player who looks to be pushing 40?

or…

B) A great baseball player with soft eyes and a young chiseled face?

Fellas, don’t roll your eyes at me. It’s the sad truth, and you know it. I’m glad I finally understand what all the hype is about.

But I have to say, there’s nothing quite like a football player.

Image source: Imgur via Reddit

Hey, if you can’t have the real thing, might as well settle for a close facsimile, right?

Editor’s note: Amanda Lawson is a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan who is getting into baseball for the first time this year. After much deliberation and counsel, Amanda settled on the Minnesota Twins as her team. With “Beginning Baseball” Amanda is documenting her first season of baseball fandom.

Last Friday, the Twins reactivated Joe Mauer from the DL, marking his return from two long months of recovery. Twins fans everywhere celebrated.

However, Mauer’s long break away from the game has brought up some questioning among fans and some cynicism among the skeptics. After signing an eight-year contract extension with the Twins (worth $184 million) in May of 2010, chatter has developed about whether the organization invested their money wisely.

The Dollar Facts

Joe Mauer is the highest paid player for the Minnesota Twins, the highest paid catcher in the MLB, and the fifth highest paid player in the MLB overall. Here’s a list of the players who rank above Mauer:

1. Alex Rodriguez, Third Baseman, New York Yankees, $32,000,000
2. Vernon Wells, Left Fielder, Los Angeles Angels, $26,187,500
3. CC Sabathia, Pitcher, New York Yankees, $24,285,714
4. Mark Teixeira, First Baseman, New York Yankees, $23,125,000

He’s the only catcher in the list of top 20 highest paid MLB players. In short, Mauer makes some cash.

Rough Start in the Contract

This year began with a rough start for Mauer. While struggling to recover from knee surgery, he missed the majority of spring training. About a week into the regular season, he was put on the DL, and team doctors determined his bilateral leg weakness was due to too light of training before the regular season.

So the questions began to appear: Is Mauer worth the extra dollar? Is the bilateral weakness the beginning to the end? Will he still have the same impact as he did before? Will he make it to the end of his contract?

Well, let’s take a look at the Twins without him.

Ok, let’s not.

We all know it wasn’t pretty. Was that all because of Mauer? No. I don’t believe one player can have that kind of impact on a team. Could Mauer have changed the outcome of some of those games though? Definitely.

And now you’re thinking, “Amanda, you haven’t been a fan long enough to watch him play. How do you know?”

Good point. And frankly, I wasn’t sure how to judge the greatness of a catcher. Luckily, there is this beautiful thing called the internet. What I found led me to believe that Joe Mauer is a hidden treasure that many teams never find in a catcher.

Three reasons Mauer’s worth the money:

1. He does his job, and he does it well.

Mauer is known for his quick thinking to make the defensive plays happen. He works with his pitcher to make them a dynamic duo ready to shutdown the offense. From understanding the pitch to focusing on the players on base, Mauer is capable of multitasking at an elite level needed to be as successful as he is. I found this great little article that helped break down his success.

2. He has experience.

As the first pick for the Twins in the 2001 draft, Mauer has played in the MLB and with the Twins for a while now. He has proven that he is capable of taking on the pressure of the Majors and driving his team toward success.

3. Oh and he can rake.

Mauer was the AL Batting Champion in 2005, 2008 and 2009. He also won the Silver Slugger Award in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Mauer has a career batting average of .326. Most catchers do NOT have this much success in their batting career.

While some fans question whether or not the Twins made a wise investment in Mauer, I will be watching his strong return with confidence and optimism. Being put on the DL may have been just what Mauer needed to get his mind and body ready for the balance of the season. Two months may seem like a long, expensive time for a key player to sit out, but it is definitely worth it if the player can turn some of the close losses into victories.

Welcome back, Mr. Mauer.

Editor’s note: Amanda Lawson is a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan who is getting into baseball for the first time this year. After much deliberation and counsel, Amanda settled on the Minnesota Twins as her team. With “Beginning Baseball” Amanda is documenting her first season of baseball fandom.

This week I had an epiphany. Sort of.

I was reading an opinion article on Joe Mauer and his current physical state. The article talked about his value to the Twins…or lack thereof.

As Jim Souhan went into detail on where he thought Mauer should be placed defensively to become a more valuable asset to the team, I couldn’t help but think that there was an important objective missing in the article.

Then the light bulb came on: the value of a player is based on more than just physical skill.

In addition to skill, the value of a player is also based on their instincts and knowledge of the game as they relate to their position. This might seem like a simple idea to have an epiphany over, but it’s one that can often get tossed aside by those who do follow the game in depth. (He’s a power hitter? Great! Unless he strikes out 90% of the time.)

Mauer’s talent is more than just his ability to win batting titles. He has the ability to read a batter and call a game. Not saying that other catchers are not capable, but Mauer’s talent has assisted many pitchers when making a call on how to pitch. Reading the batter is a talent that could put one team at a much better advantage than the other. Of course, it’s not the only factor that will make or break a team, but it definitely has given the Twins some leverage in the past.

Those are big shoes to fill. And it’s not an easy task to conquer. Finding a replacement for a supreme catching talent like Mauer, which the Twins might need to do sooner rather than later if he cannot stay healthy, isn’t as easy as one might think. There is a reason the Twins are keeping him there.

However, the reality is that a player isn’t worth a whole lot if they are on the disabled list for a majority of the season.

Yes, Joe Mauer is one of the best defensive catchers in the game, and his bat is much more valuable as a catcher than it would be as, say, a right fielder, but he offers no value if he is not on the field at all.

If the physical stress of playing a certain position is overshadowing a players’ talent in that position and causing them to miss games, at some point it’s no longer worth having them play there no matter how good or valuable they may be at that position. Perhaps the best option for the Twins is to begin their search for a catching replacement while developing a strategy to continue to use Mauer’s talent in another way.

This is easier said than done of course. And who am I to start strategizing for the Minnesota Twins? What do you think? How replaceable is a catcher like Joe Mauer and should the Twins hasten is move from behind the plate?

Editor’s note: Amanda Lawson is a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan who is getting into baseball for the first time this year. After much deliberation and counsel, Amanda settled on the Minnesota Twins as her team. With “Beginning Baseball” Amanda is documenting her first season of baseball fandom.

Rough start. You could say that again.

After the excitement of choosing to follow the greatest team in baseball, I can’t help but feel a little down about the Twins start to the season.

It could be worse; the Twins could have a start like the Red Sox. But it could also be much better.

And it’s tearing me up. Why? One reason: my head is still stuck in football mode.

Football has been my “thing” since the beginning of my memory. However, it’s a completely different sport from baseball. Differentiating between the two is easily the biggest challenge I am having with baseball for two reasons.

1. The value of a loss.

Baseball has a million more games than football. A loss in baseball is going to happen. In fact, many losses in baseball are going to happen. And you’re going to lose series. With 162 games, you can’t expect to win them all.

Although, I would really appreciate it if the Twins would hurry up and win a series already.

This year is the first time since 1995 that the Twins have lost each of their first four series to begin a season. I’m starting to think I am bad luck.

And that’s my problem. In football, a loss can be detrimental to a team. And multiple losses can hurt your chances to make the playoffs. My friends are constantly reminding me, “Amanda, this is baseball. Not football. Don’t start worrying yet.”

I will get the hang of it…eventually.

2. The Disabled List (DL)

When I first started getting my ESPN updates, most of them were about players being put on the DL. Here are some examples of why they were put on the DL:

• dead arm
• nerve irritation
• bilateral leg weakness
• cuticle injury

My initial thought was “Wow, what a bunch of girls.” I mean honestly, who goes on the DL for a cuticle injury?! Then I started to think about it. These players are playing games every day, multiple days in a row. They don’t have a week or two to recover between each game.

In baseball, it’s important to have depth at each position. And most of the time, teams have the depth to cover someone for at least a short period of time. So I am trying not to freak out when the Twins put someone on the DL. (Except when they put Joe Mauer on the DL because, frankly, we don’t have the depth at catcher and no one can replace Mauer.) Pulling someone else into the position for a few days or weeks isn’t difficult if you have the depth to cover your starter.

Since football is a direct contact sport, the injuries are bound to be more severe. And when injuries occur, it can have a huge, usually negative, impact on the team. Most of the time, it causes the team to change their style of play to fit the replacement’s capabilities.

These are the two challenges I am facing. Recognizing a loss’s value and an injury’s impact to the team. But I am getting better at understanding how each loss or injury will affect the Twins. However, that doesn’t make me feel much better about our situation.

Despite the fact that it’s only the start of the season, I am ready for the Twins to win. And I think the rest of their fans are too.

You know what I mean. That guy who calls overreacts to every single little thing and claims the season is over when Tsuyoshi Nishioka can’t figure out the strike zone and doesn’t know how to avoid a base runner trying to break up a double play.

The same kind of person that starts making up excuses why the team isn’t performing the way all of the “experts” said they would — i.e. actually having high expectations, still adjusting to a new home park, not enough to replace lost pitchers out of the bullpen, too much relying on guys coming off of injuries, etc. The Twins thrive off of being the underdog. Be honest, when was the last time the Twins were actually supposed to win the AL Central? Back in the Johan days?

Worst of all, and this is my biggest Simmons pet peeve, I’ve already claimed this team almost too boring to watch.

Admittedly, baseball has never been my favorite sport to watch on TV (in person is a completely different experience), but this year’s team has especially lacked the ability to get me excited. The hitting has been lackluster – it took 11 games to finally get a first inning run – and their “pitch to contact” starters don’t provide much entertainment. No sane person wants to sit around and watch a team that can’t hit and can’t get batters out. That’s not fun baseball.

Fun baseball includes Delmon Young and Danny Valencia continuing their hot streaks from last year. It includes bombs from Jim Thome, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, much like this one. It includes Joe Mauer flashing some of the power from two years ago instead of grounding out to short every other at bat. It includes Francisco Liriano striking out 10 batters every five days.

At least I haven’t boycotted twitter and don’t take long walks around Fargo to get over my frustration.

Speaking of Francisco Liriano, our “ace”, the only non-“pitch to contact” arm they have on the roster, he has been the opposite of that so far this year (0-3, 9.42 ERA, 15 ER, 14.1 innings, 4:3 K/BB). Look at his stat line from this Spring Training game. (I know, it’s only Spring Training, but still. He was all over the place) Also, there is this. Definitely not what the Twins need if they want to win this division.

And Poor Yoshi. The guy has high expectations coming from Japan, struggles early with communication and adapting to American style of baseball, then breaks his leg during the first week of the season and is out for up to two months. With the Twins already weak up the middle, delaying Nishioka’s learning curve could be devastating.

I already somewhat wrote about this a few weeks ago to star the season, but that was more of a reverse jinx post. I didn’t mean for it to actually be true. Luckily the Royals and Indians are leading the division so we know that things are definitely out of the ordinary. For now, I’ll try to remain optimistic, wait for the White Sox to experience the Crainwreck, and eventually see the Twins back on top where they belong.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to talk to random people about Shawshank Redemption.

**********

* – Tsuyosi Nishioka photo credit: AP Photo/Kathy Willens via The Baseball Digest

There are plenty of good reasons for these expectations. The Twins have routinely finished atop their division regardless of any problems they’ve had.

This year could prove to be different however.

Minnesota had a quiet offseason per usual, but they lost more than they gained.

The Twins lost four arms out of the bullpen and felt they could retool with unproven guys from within the system instead of going out and getting help. They are going to put the closer role on Joe Nathan right out of the gate instead of allowing Matt Capps to help ease Nathan into his old spot.

The Twins don’t seem too fascinated with their starting pitching either, making it public that they are already willing to talk trades involving Scott Baker. Throw in Nick Blackburn to the end of that rotation, and they could be in trouble.

The big splash this offseason was the signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, star 2B from Japan. He has blazing speed and carried an impressive bat in Japan, but his translation to American baseball and his chemistry with the inconsistent Alexia Casilla need to prove they are an upgrade over the Cabrera-Hardy double play combo the Twins thrived off of last year.

Health will be a HUGE factor for the Twins this season. The last two years Minnesota has had to survive with season ending injuries to Justin Morneau (back, concussion). Joe Mauer is constantly plagued by nagging knee and back issues, which you can see clearly in his lack of power last year. Again, the closer role is back to Joe Nathan just 12 months after Tommy John Surgery. Though the Twins have solid backup at most positions – Michael Cuddyer may be one of the most underrated players in the league – injuries are a big blow to any team.

Combine all of that with Chicago’s additions and Detroit’s potentially dangerous lineup, there are a lot of factors in play for an AL Central three-peat in Minnesota.

The only thing we can do now is wait and see.

Who will come out on top in what has historically been one of baseball’s most competitive divisions? Can the Twins repeat? Will the reloaded White Sox reclaim the throne? Can the Tigers rebound from last year’s disappointment?

Yesterday we analyzed the AL East. Let’s take look at the AL Central.

Minnesota Twins

Justin Morneau looks to return to the lineup after missing half of last season with a concussion that lingered into the off season. Joe Mauer will look to get back to 2009 AL MVP form when he hit .365 and hit 28 homeruns. Japanese All Star Tsuyoshi Nishioka will start at second base, Alexi Cassilla will be given a chance at shortstop, and Danny Valencia will play third. If Cassilla falters, Nishioka will move to short and Luke Hughes will play second. Trevor Plouffe could also figure into the middle infield equation with a solid spring.

Michael Cuddyer will be the opening day starter in right field, Denard Span will play center, and Delmon Young left. Jim Thome and Jason Kubel will be the DH, with both capable of playing first base. Jason Repko will be the fourth outfielder. Drew Butera will possibly make the team as the backup catcher.

Minnesota’s starting rotation will start with Francisco Liriano, followed by Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Brian Duensing. Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey will use the spring to figure out who will get the fifth spot, the other likely going to the pen as long reliever. Joe Nathan (possibly ready for opening day) will be back as closer; Matt Capps will fill in if he isn’t ready by opening day.

Ron Gardenhire will manage the Twins for his 9th season, and will look to win the division again. He has some younger players, and winning it again could be a sign of successful years to come.

Prediction: I don’t see the Twins repeating 2010′s 94 wins, but I think they win 80-85 games this year, and fight the White Sox for the division all year, likely finishing in second.

Chicago White Sox

Ozzie Guillen and the Chicago White Sox finished last season seven games behind the Twins, so this off season they signed Adam Dunn to get some support around Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios. The Sox will score some runs, and will hit a lot of homeruns this year if all the players mentioned can stay healthy.

Gordon Beckham and Alexi Ramirez will play second and short, Konerko will start at first, and Dunn may get some time there as well. Brent Morel, a rookie of the year candidate, will be given a shot at being the everyday third baseman. Mark Teahan and Omar Vizquel will fill the bench as backups. Brent Lillibridge and Alejandro DeAza could find their way onto the team with great springs.

Juan Pierre, Rios and Quentin will fill the outfield from left to right. Non-Roster invitee Lastings Milledge could find his way onto the team because the Sox don’t have much outfield depth. A.J. Pierzynski will start at catcher, with Ramon Castro his backup.

The White Sox rotation is one of the best in the majors. Mark Buehrle heads a rotation consisting of Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jake Peavy (possibly out opening day) and Edwin Jackson. Chris Sale will start the year in the bullpen and will be first up if injury occurs to any of the starters. Matt Thornton, the hard throwing lefty, will be given the closers job as Bobby Jenks left for Boston.

The White Sox will be exciting in 2011, and Ozzie wouldn’t have it any other way.

Prediction: The ‘Good Guys are’ primed to win 90 plus games this year. They will fight the Twins and Tigers to the finish, and if the rotation stays intact, Chicago will win the Central.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers finished 13games behind the Twins with a record of 81-81 last season. Magglio Ordonez had a disappointing season due to injury, and looks ready to produce this year. The acquisition of Victor Martinez will help give Ordonez and Cabrera protection in the lineup. Carlos Guillen ( ruled out opening day), who has not played more than 100 games in a season since 2008, will try and reach that plateau this season. Jhonny Peralta will start at shortstop and Brandon Inge will play third.

Austin Jackson will start in center field while Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch battle for the left field spot. Don Kelly will make the team as utility specialist. Will Rhymes, Ramon Santiago and Casper Wells will use spring to see who makes the team as backup. Alex Avila will get the majority of starts at catcher, with Martinez being the teams primary DH.

Justin Verlander, Max Sherzer, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke and Brad Penny will fill the starting rotation. Jose Valverde will be the closer, and Joaquin Benoit, who had an awesome 2010 in Tampa, will be the setup man.

Jim Leyland will try to get his team to avoid the distraction created by Miguel Cabrera, who again is having problems with alcohol. Cabrera will be ready for opening day, and will be monitored throughout the year.

Every win will count for these three teams, and the winner will get the division; the loser will miss the playoffs, as the Wild Card will come out of the American League East.

Prediction: If they can avoid the distractions, Detroit will win 85-90 games, and be in a battle with the White Sox and Twins all season long.

Cleveland Indians

Manny Acta will return for his second season as manager of the Indians, who finished 69-93 last season. Cleveland has a lot of questions going into spring training, and hopefully can clear some of them up. Grady Sizemore (possible mid May return) hopes to be ready and play center field, while Carlos Santana, who started team activities last week, could be in the lineup opening day. Matt LaPorta will be given the opportunity to get the majority of starts at first base, with Santana also getting some time to save his knees.

Travis Hafner will be the DH, and the Tribe will look for him to put up better numbers. Orlando Cabrera will start at second, and Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop. Jayson Nix will be given the chance to hold down the starting third base job, if he falters Jason Donald will take over. One of the game’s best kept secrets, Shin-Soo Choo will start in right field,  looking to continue his rise in the majors. Michael Brantley will start in center, and will stay there until Sizemore is ready. Austin Kearns and Trevor Crowe (possible for opening day) will be on the bench until Sizemore returns, then one may be out. Luis Valbuena will be the other bench player and infield backup.

The starting rotation is young, and will make or break the season for the Indians. It consists of Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, Mitch Talbot and Carlos Carrasco. Josh Tomlin will be the fifth starter with a solid spring, and is the lead candidate ahead of Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff. If the staff has troubles, the Indians will have another disappointing season.

Prediction: Winning more than last year’s 69 games will be considered a success.

Kansas City Royals

Finishing out the Central is the Kansas City Royals, who finished in the cellar with a 67-95 record. Manager Ned Yost is expecting stronger pitching and better defense this year. With new arrivals Jeff Francouer (expected to be everyday right fielder) and Melky Cabrera, who will be the same in center, the outfield will be better. Alex Gordon will man left field, and be counted on to continue to improve his numbers. Kila Ka’aihue, a minor league masher, will get the opportunity to start at first base and hit in the middle of the lineup.

Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar and Mike Aviles will start from second to third. Billy Butler will be the DH and could get some time at first base if Ka’aihue can’t handle the lime light. Veteran Jason Kendall (out indefinitely with shoulder surgery, possible April return) will eventually be the team’s catcher, but Brayan Pena earned a job with a productive season last year, and will start until Kendall is ready.

Wilson Betemit will be the team’s utility infielder, and non-roster invitee Pedro Feliz will compete for a bench spot. Mitch Maier, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson with fight for the fourth outfield spot, with Gregor Blanco more than likely being the odd man out.

The Royals also have a young rotation, with Luke Hochever, Kyle Davies, Vin Mazzaro, Jeff Francis and Sean O’Sullivan the likely candidates. Bruce Chen could also make the rotation; if not, he’ll be the long reliever.

The Royals may play better defense, but the offense is what they are going to need.

Prediction: Kansas City will battle it out with the Indians for last place, possibly winning 70 games.

If you are a fan of the Chicago White Sox, as I am, then this is a tune to keep in mind once next Tuesday rolls around. Why? That is when the Good Guys host the Twin Cities Piranhas in a three game set that will decide the AL Central.

Let’s preview the series and see just how optimistic White Sox fans should reasonably be about their team rising to the occasion in the most important series of the season.

White Sox-Twins: The Preceding Weekend

As I write this on Saturday morning, the White Sox sit 5.0 games behind Minnesota in the standings, thanks to last night’s thrilling come-from-behind home victory over the Royals. Each team has two games left before their pivotal tilt begins

The White Sox send Edwin Jackson to the hill today at home versus Kyle Davies. Jackson has been outstanding since the White Sox acquired him, although his history versus Kansas City is a bit checkered. Davies’ history against the White Sox is similarly checkered. Still, I think everyone would be shocked if the White Sox didn’t win this battle.

On Sunday, Freddy Garcia takes the hill for Chicago against Sean O’Sullivan of Kansas City. I see no discernible advantage here, so this game is a toss-up.

The Twins are in Cleveland, where they were shut down last night. Today, Nick Blackburn takes on rookie Carlos Carrasco and on Sunday it’s Kevin Slowey against Mitch Talbot. Carrasco and Talbot are better than you think, while Slowey has struggled since returning from injury. Blackburn has poor overall numbers but has been very good over the last 3-4 weeks.

All in all, I expect both the White Sox and Twins to split their games this weekend, meaning the Twins will still have a 5.0 game lead on Tuesday. From a White Sox perspective, this needs to be the absolute worst case weekend scenario. Losing any more ground is simply out of the question with only three weeks left in the season.

Update 9/13: Well, this didn’t go quite as planned. The Twins both of their weekend games while the White Sox split with Kansas City. So the Sox sit 6.0 games out as their pivotal series with Minnesota begins.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Tuesday

• First pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN
• Pitching Matchup: Francisco Liriano (13-7, 3.24 ERA) vs John Danks (13-10, 3.54 ERA)

This is a terrific pitching matchup in a series full of them. Liriano and Danks, both lefties, have had remarkably similar seasons. Not only are their overall numbers very similar, but their numbers against their Tuesday opponent are also similar.

• Danks vs MIN this year: 5 G, 2-1, 34.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 25:9 K:BB
• Liriano vs CHI this year: 4 G, 2-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 20:13 K:BB

Both guys have actually pitched better against their rival this year than over their careers. Danks and Liriano have 5.00+ ERAs and 1.50+ WHIPs career against Minnesota and Chicago, respectively. And while both pitchers come into this game on the heels of at least two straight quality starts (Liriano has three straight), both have thrown up two duds out of their last six outings.

So history, both recent and distant, tells us that this may not be the low-scoring pitchers’ duel that we otherwise might expect just looking at the names.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Danks’ and Liriano’s home/road split this year should make White Sox fans feel better:

• Danks at home this year: 3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .218 BAA, 81:25 K:BB
• Liriano on road this year: 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .266 BAA, 82:26 K:BB

Interestingly, while Liriano’s numbers match up with this career splits, Danks over his career has actually been about the same on the road as he is at home. Still, the fact that this game is in Chicago appears to be, from a pitching standpoint, a clear advantage for Chicago.

Which batters can we expect to step up?

For Minnesota, Michael Cuddyer absolutely owns Danks (1.369 OPS in 45 ABs). Joe Mauer hits .349 career against Danks but doesn’t hit him especially hard (.419 SLG). A positive for Chicago is that Justin Morneau has always hit well against Danks (1.222 OPS in 31 ABs) but remains out while dealing with the effects of a concussion.

Chicago’s players have about half the ABs against Liriano as the Twins’ players against Danks, but a couple guys jump out: Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez. Paulie has a 1.141 OPS and 2 HRs in 17 ABs against Liriano while Alexei has a 1.088 OPS in 17 ABs. Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and Mark Teahen, however, have been neutralized by Liriano.

White Sox-Twins Tuesday Prediction: Both teams have a couple of guys with especially strong numbers against the opposing pitcher, and both pitchers have struggled in this matchup. I expect a close game in which relief pitchers will likely play a big role during the last three innings. With the White Sox getting Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz back to go along with Chris Sale, this isn’t as scary a proposition as it was as recently as a week ago.

White Sox win it 6-5.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Wednesday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: WCIU
• Pitching Matchup: Brian Duensing (8-2, 2.02 ERA) vs Gavin Floyd (10-12, 3.91 ERA)

This is the game that terrifies me and that should terrify all White Sox fans.

Gavin Floyd’s terrific mid-summer run, which is his track record, helped propel the White Sox back into the AL Central race (almost exactly as I predicted, by the way) when they looked all but dead early in the season. Unfortunately, Floyd’s track record suggests that he’ll be just an average pitcher over the season’s final month (career 6-9, 4.22 ERA in 22 September starts).

As if on cue, Floyd has three starts giving up 5 earned runs or more since the calendar turned to August. Most frightening for White Sox fans is that two of those starts came against Minnesota and the third was his most recent outing against Detroit.

That’s not encouraging.

Duensing, on the other hand, is a guy who has pitched well in August and September. In 21 careers starts during the season’s final two months, Duensing is 9-2. He has a 2.81 August ERA and a 2.56 September ERA (though his WHIP is 1.36 and BAA is .280).

Against the White Sox Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 9 career appearances, some of them out of the pen. Floyd has a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his career against Minnesota and is just 4-7.

(Stop me when you find something that leads you to believe the White Sox will win this game. Seriously. I’m trying really hard to find something.)

At home, Floyd is slightly better than he is on the road while Duensing is decidedly better at home (1.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) than on the road (3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Unfortunately, Duensing’s road numbers are better than Floyd’s career home numbers.

Ugh.

From a hitters’ perspective, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin are the only White Sox players who will be looking forward to this matchup. Alexei is 5-12 lifetime against Duensing with a .962 OPS. CQ is 5-9 against Duensing with 2 HR and a 1.822 OPS.

So Quentin needs to make sure he doesn’t get hurt between now and Wednesday because the White Sox will need his power to have a chance.

For the Twins, an entire phalanx of hitters will be looking forward to facing Floyd. Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Joe Mauer all have OPS’ above 1.000 in 24, 35, and 34 ABs, respectively.

White Sox-Twins Wednesday Prediction: During June and July, Gavin Floyd was basically automatic. Every time he started you just knew the White Sox would have a great chance to win. While he hasn’t been terrible in August and September, his two recent outings against Minnesota, and his history against the Twins, are not encouraging.

Brian Duensing is one of the really good young pitchers that not too many people know about. White Sox fans and other AL Central aficionados do, but that’s about it. As September progresses, and over the next few years, that will probably change…and frankly, that sucks. The last thing the White Sox need is another annoyingly solid starter to haunt us for the next few years.

Even me, the most optimistic of all White Sox fans, cannot find a reason to predict victory on Wednesday. I hope I’m wrong.

Twins win 5-2.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Thursday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN / MLB Network
• Pitching Matchup: Carl Pavano (16-11, 3.47 ERA) vs Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99 ERA)

I love Danks, Floyd, and Jackson. All are above average pitchers who typically give the White Sox a chance to win. But if you asked me who I’d want on the bump if my life depended on a White Sox W, I’d choose Mark Buehrle every time.

I’ve written before about Buehrle’s status as the ace of the White Sox and how underrated he is. A major reason for this is that while Buehrle’s overall career numbers are not overwhelming, he has usually stepped up big against two of the three teams that have been the White Sox main consistent rivals during Buehrle’s tenure: Minnesota and Detroit.

• vs Minnesota: 25-17 in 46 starts, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• vs Detroit: 16-8 in 29 starts, 3.01 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

(Cleveland fans, shut up. I know the Indians have killed Buehrle – 12-15 lifetime record – but that means nothing for the purposes of this discussion.)

This year, Buehrle has been predictably strong against Minnesota. He is 2-1 in three starts with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s only struck out eight Twins in 23 innings, but he’s also only walked three. Vintage Buehrle.

So if you’re a White Sox, you feel good about the man on the hill for you on Thursday.

Unfortunately, Twins fans will feel pretty good with their own mustachioed mound maestro: Carl Pavano. The Big Apple Pariah has resurrected his career with an outstanding season in Minnesota. And unlike many Minnesota pitchers, Pavano is better on the road (3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) than at home (3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).

He has not, however, been quite as good against the White Sox this season. His overall numbers are 2-1 in three starts with a 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a .315 BAA. In his defense though, Pavano does have a sterling 13:1 K:BB rate against Chicago, and 15 of the 28 hits he’s given up to the White Sox, along with 6 of the 11 earned runs, came in his last start against the Good Guys. His other two starts against Chicago were both very good.

So we really can’t know what to expect from the White Sox offense against Pavano Thursday night. He could shut us down or we could tattoo him again. Both have already happened this year.

And that’s where I like the White Sox chances. Buehrle’s worst start against Minnesota this year was his first, back in April: 8 innings, 4 ER. He went 8 IP, 3 ER his next time out, then 7 IP, 0 ER after that. The trend is going in the right direction, which is the opposite for Pavano.

The hitters to watch for the White Sox in this matchup, based on the history, are Paul Konerko (.963 OPS in 27 ABs), A.J. Pierzynski (1.045 OPS in 22 ABs), and Alex Rios (.924 OPS in 22 ABs). This may be a good day to rest Quentin though. He’s 0-10 lifetime against Pavano.

Minnesota’s hitters have much more established track records against Buehrle, who they’ve seen so often over the past decade. Denard Span has fared the best, with a 1.037 OPS in 31 ABs. Delmon Young has also done well, with a .942 OPS in 30 ABs. Conversely, Joe Mauer (.647 OPS in 46 ABs) and Jason Kubel (.624 OPS in 14 ABs) have not fared as well.

White Sox-Twins Thursday Prediction: If the first two games go as I predicted them, and the remaining games this weekend go as I predicted, the White Sox will need this win to move to 4.0 games back. That is a seemingly insurmountable advantage with so few days left on the regular season calendar, but it at least keeps the White Sox in it.

And I do think Mark Buehrle wins this matchup. He may even do it without any help from the bullpen. Buehrle knows when he needs to put the White Sox on his back, and he usually does it, especially against Minnesota.

Also, there are troubling signs for Pavano. He’s only struck out six hitters in his last 23 innings, although all three are quality starts (1-2 record). Plus, his last memory of facing the White Sox is getting hit around like a pinata.

A desperate White Sox team will come through a big victory on this night, and hopefully the momentum can carry the White Sox to a white hot finish to the season. They’ll need it to have a chance.

White Sox win 7-1.

White Sox-Twins: The Rest of September

Based on my predictions, the White Sox will be 4.0 games out heading into next Friday. A bounce here or there and obviously that number could swing in either direction by a game or two. We’ll see what happens.

But assuming 4.0 games is the deficit, will White Sox fans have any reasonable hope of a late season surge? Here are the remaining schedules for the two squads.

White Sox:

• vs DET (3)
• @ OAK (3)
• @ LAA (3)
• vs BOS (4)
• vs CLE (3)

Twins:

• vs OAK (3)
• vs CLE (3)
• @ DET (3)
• @ KC (3)
• vs TOR (4)

Not really much of an advantage either way. Both teams have 10 games at home and 6 on the road. Both play Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit. Both get an AL East squad out of the race, and both go on the road to face teams that aren’t very good this year (KC and LAA).

Basically, the White Sox will need to catch fire and the Twins will need to collapse. Is it possible? Of course it is. Is it probable? Probably not.

But the joy of being a fan is knowing that as long as your team has a mathematical chance, something crazy could always happen. And we watch, and we hope, and we implore both our teams to rise to the occasion and the sports gods to smile down upon us with benevolence.

For the White Sox, being five games out with just 3+ weeks left is tantamount to hanging by a thread. But at least we’re hanging and have a reason to stay engaged during September. Now let’s just hope that we’re not hanging on in vain.

Last night’s comeback win over Kansas City was huge and certainly rekindled my excitement. And I like our chances at home against Minnesota next week. As Hawk would say, don’t stop now boys…

**********

* – AJ / JJ photo source: SBNation

* – Paulie/Buehrle photo source: RightWingHouse.com

* – Brian Duensing photo source: TwinkieTown.com

First, I gloat over the fact that my week 1 college football picks (exclusive to MSF) went 4-0 on Saturday with Virginia Tech pending on Monday.  Then I check the scores from late last night and I realize that LSU somehow failed to score a point in the entire second half against UNC’s JV defense and choked away the easiest of covers.

Needless to say, as a Duke fan (don’t tell anyone, I know most of you find that gross), I blame Roy Williams for this backdoor disgusting cover, and I now doubly hope that all the UNC suspensions are followed by probation and the death penalty.  In fact, I root for Craig James to show up as a consultant for UNC now that he has helped administer the execution of both the SMU football program and the career of Mike Leach.

The second thing I realize is that this is the last Sunday for approximately 20 weeks that won’t entail about 12 straight hours of NFL football.

The exception, of course, are the Sundays spent at an NFL stadium, which is more like a 30/70 split between NFL football and tailgating.  This brings a smile to my face.  Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for my wife.  As this fact has slowly dawned on her over the past few days, her facial expression has slowly morphed into the look one might get when they learn of a close relative’s death while waiting to see the dentist.  Part concern. Part fear. Part anger.  And all unbearable sadness.

So as I think through some nice things to do on this last Sunday or normalcy of 2010, I ponder all the things I could do as a token of my unyielding gratitude for her continuing to put up with me.  I could buy her a gift, like the fancy coffee maker or new tennis racket she has had her eye on.  I could opt for some quality time, perhaps a picnic with the family featuring some homemade delectables prepared by yours truly.  Or maybe just some flowers.

So what, you are wondering, did I decide to do?

Well, I decided to break down the baseball season as we move from the dog days of August down the home stretch.  First of all, you’re welcome.  Second of all, does anyone have a couch I could borrow for a couple of days until things cool down here?

Keep in mind, these are not all the answers of what will happen once October hits, but merely some things I believe will transpire based on what we know now.

One American League Pennant Race Left: AL Central

Let’s start with the American League.  There are five teams fighting for four spots, with New York, Tampa Bay, and Texas all but locked in.  Minnesota and Chicago are fighting it out for the American League Central to take the fourth spot.

I give Kenny Williams a lot of credit for continuing to do whatever he can to provide Ozzie Guillen the tools to get over the hump.  He got Jake Peavy a year ago when most thought he was overpriced and washed up.  He took Alex Rios when nobody wanted him and his bloated eight figure annual paycheck.  And he took Manny last week, because the conventional wisdom is that the skills have eroded enough that the circus sideshow is no longer worth it.

And you know what?  It should have worked.

The Pale Hose have put together a nice year while Detroit has underachieved more than Chone Figgins.  But, unfortunately for the South Siders, Minnesota just continues to defy the odds and win, win, win.

Let’s look at the facts:

• The Twins do not have a big market budget.
• They lost their premium stud closer for the season before it began.
• Joe Mauer, their best player, has had a year that makes him seem mortal.
• Justin Morneau has played in only 81 games, none since July 7 after suffering a concussion.
• Their starting rotation lacks a true ace, although Francisco Liriano is evolving into one.

But the Twins are the Twins.  They know how to win games.  Bill Smith and Terry Ryan have just done an incredible job keeping this team competitive for the last 10+ years with limited resources through great drafting, good player development, and wise, affordable signings.  Then when you throw Ron Gardenhire and his managing into the mix, you probably have the most competent front office/manager combination, and certainly the least heralded and most underrated.

Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see the White Sox playing into October as Ozzie Guillen is the best, most consistent sound byte in baseball since Joaquin Andujar (for example, “there is one word in America that says it all….You never know”).  However, with a 3.5 game lead with only 25 to go, I am giving the nod to the Twins.

Probable American League Playoff Matchups

Assuming the playoffs shape up as they appear now, you would have Yankees v. Rangers and Twins v. Devil Rays (I am sorry, but they will never be the Rays to me, sorry Dickie V).

Let’s start with the Rangers.  I declare them the new America’s Team, as they represent true America as a bankrupt organization that is somehow allowed to continue to add payroll to fund their pennant chase.  Charles Darwin is shaking his head disapprovingly somewhere.

But falling into the “karma is a bitch” category, they are playing their worst ball of the season and their star acquisition, Clfton Phifer Lee, has give up 4 earned runs or more in each of his last five starts, and six of seven overall, in which his ERA has ballooned from 2.40 to 3.37 (ouch). To top it off, he has been scratched from his next start with back problems (real ouch).  And their star position player, Josh Hamilton, is out with some severely bruised ribs.

The good news, Ranger fans, is that their losing is irrelevant.  They have the division wrapped up, and all they need to worry about is setting their rotation and getting everyone healthy and playing well for the playoffs.  In addition, any Phillies fan can tell you they have seen this Cliff Lee movie before.  Goes to a new team, great start, iffy stretch in August, then basically carries the team on his back in the playoffs.  Ranger fans will be very happy if this is a sequel.

The bad news is that they are likely to play the Yankees in the playoffs, that their rotation after Lee is talented but very green, and that my brother-in-law Ted is a huge Ranger fan, and I am pretty sure that he is actually jinxed.

The Yankees have the be considered the team to beat.  Their four man playoff rotation of Sabathia, Pettitte, Hughes, and Burnett is the best in the American League for sure.  Their offense features one of the most clutch players ever (Jeter), a 600-HR guy (A-Rod), potentially the most underrated player in the game (Cano), a gold glove first baseman with great power and plate discipline (Teixeira), and plenty of other legitimate weapons with experience, power and/or speed (Posada, Swisher, Gardner).  Oh, and they have the best closer maybe to ever play the game.

I would pick Texas with my heart, but New York should win this series.

In the other AL series,  I am going with the Twins.  I like Joe Maddon, but I think Gardenhire is better.  I like Longoria, and Carl Crawford is outstanding setting the table, but I think the Twins just have more desire, and I think Joe Mauer can carry this team on his back.  And I think Liriano is the best starting pitcher in the series (and he will be ion the hill in two of the 5 games, if it goes the distance).

This Twins team has been to the playoffs often in the past decade, but has not done a lot of damage once there because they play on all cylinders all year and there is no extra gear to accelerate to come playoff time.  This year, I just feel like it is their time to advance.  They will have home field, and they have been tough to beat in the new and beautiful Target Field.  And if (I know, it is a big if), they get Justin Morneau back from post concussion symptoms, that can give them the extra gear they have lacked in years’ past.

National League Playoff Outlook: Phillies Again?

In the National League, it is too tough to pick first round matchups because all the records are too close, both throughout the league and in the NL East (and now West) specifically).  I will say that it appears that the four playoff teams will be the Braves, Phillies, Reds, and I still think the Padres. Long current losing streak aside, the Pads have been the most consistent team in the NL all season long and I think they will regain enough form to hold off a Giants team that seems to have not quite enough down the stretch in recent years.

So without an ability to pick matchups, I can declare that there is no reason that the Phillies shouldn’t be the first team since the Cardinals over 60 years ago to represent the National League in the World Series three straight years.

The Phillies’ rotation is sick.  Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels is the best Big 3 of any of the NL playoff teams (and the Braves and Padres both have very solid starting pitching).  Offensively, they have fantastic weapons in Utley, Howard, Werth, Victorino, Rollins, Ibanez, and even Ruiz and his clutch hitting.  Contreras, Madson, and Lidge have been back to being unhittable over the past 4-6 weeks.  Their manager, while never being confused with someone who is strategic, or even knows how to spell strategic, understands what buttons to push on this team.  They are finally healthy for the first time all season.  And they have more playoff experience than anyone.  They have been here before and they know what it takes to win.

All that being said, I am just not feeling the Phillies this year.  This team, despite its myriad offensive weapons, has struggled mightily way too often this season.  They have struggled to score runs repeatedly (just ask Cole Hamels!!), and have had to win five different 1-0 games this season.  My thought is that in the playoffs, unless they can get more consistent hitting, they are going to put too much pressure on their tremendous pitching staff.  And at the end of the day, their margin for error will be small, probably smaller than it is fair to ask of any staff, even if the names are Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels.  Considering their rash of injuries, the Phillies have done a remarkable job getting into a position where they are the favorite to repeat and get to the Fall Classic for a third straight year, but they will fall short.  I just feel it.

So for now, I am saying the Twins and Yankees will meet in the ALCS, and that he Phillies will not win two playoff series and advance to the World Series.  To see how I feel the rest of the baseball playoffs will unfold, you will have top tune back in when it gets a little bit closer.

I would give you all the answers now, but I think I better go mow my lawn…

The Twins come into this season with two former MVPs, an increased payroll, and a new stadium. Expectations are as high as they have been in quite some time. Instead of figuring out how to fill roles vacated by Johan Santana or Torii Hunter like years past, the Twins showed aggressiveness in free agency.

Up until Joe Nathan’s (potentially) devastating injury, the Twins looked like the preseason favorite to win the almighty AL Central. Let’s take a look at the reasons why.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Preview: Infield

The Twins traded for former All-Star JJ Hardy in exchange for Carlos Gomez. Gomez was a huge fan favorite and a great energy guy, but it is hard to keep a guy around who weighs more than his batting average. Hardy has friends within the Twins organization and is looking to return to his All Star form and solidify the shortstop position.

Orlando Hudson was a great free agent pickup, signing a one year contract. Everything I’ve read about Hudson is that he has an infectious personality and never stops talking. Sounds like a great teammate to me.

Justin Morneau is healthy and back at first base, looking for his fourth 30 HR season in the past five years and a return to the AL MVP ballot. While the team didn’t show signs of a devastating collapse when he went down last year with a back injury, he is still a cornerstone of this team.

Third base is a huge question mark. Brendan Harris is slotted to fill the position for now. The Twins have a good prospect in Danny Valencia, but they are convinced he isn’t ready yet. Harris is a decent fielder, but not someone who is an everyday player on a World Series contending team. If the Twins are to make a trade this year, I think it will be to lock up the hot corner spot.

There is also this guy named Joe Mauer at the catcher spot. I don’t know much about him but apparently he swings a good bat. He has been compared to something called a Jonny Bench, whatever that is. He is definitely a player to watch this year.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Preview: Outfield

Denard Span is a name you NEED to get used to.

This is a guy who was stuck in the Twins farm club finally got called up a few years ago as an injury replacement and played so well that he convinced management to keep him around. He has developed into a solid leadoff hitter as well as one of the most versatile outfielders in the league, playing all three positions last year before settling in center for this season. He recently signed a 5-year extension.

Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer will fill the rest of the outfield. Young is trying to prove why the Twins have kept him around, and he made a good case for himself after having a big role at the end of the season after the Morneau injury. Cuddyer showed signs of why he got a multi-year contract extension after a big 2006, leading the team in home runs last year with 32. He also stepped up last year after the Morneau injury, filling in at first place.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Preview: Pitching

Really Joe? WHY!?

The Twins came into Spring Training with four of the five starting spots filled. Fransisco Liriano and Glen Perkins were set to compete for the final spot, but so far it hasn’t been much of a competition.

Liriano had great outings in the Dominican winter league and has continued that hot streak, and with Nathan being hurt, word of Liriano filling that closing spot was starting to form. Unfortunately Perkins hasn’t shown he can fill the role of a starter, meaning the Twins will have to look elsewhere for a replacement.

Projected Batting Order

1. CF Denard Span
.311 BA, .392 OBP, .415 SLG, 8 HR, 68 RBI in 2009
2. 2B Orlando Hudson
.283 BA, .357 OBP, .417 SLG, 9 HR, 62 RBI in 2009
3. C Joe Mauer
.365 BA, .444 OBP, .587 SLG, 28 HR, 96 RBI in 2009
4. 1B Justin Morneau
.274 BA, .363 OBP, .516 SLG, 30 HR, 100 RBI in 2009
5. DH Jason Kubel
.300 BA, .369 OBP, .539 SLG, 28 HR, 103 RBI in 2009
6. RF Michael Cuddyer
.276 BA, .342 OBP, .520 SLG, 32 HR, 94 RBI in 2009
7. LF Delmon Young
.284 BA, .308 OBP, .425 SLG, 12 HR, 60 RBI in 2009
8. SS J.J. Hardy
.229 BA, .302 OBP, .357 SLG, 11 HR, 47 RBI in 2009
9. 3B Brendan Harris
.261 BA, .310 OBP, .362 SLG, 6 HR, 37 RBI in 2009

Projected Pitching Rotation

1. Scott Baker
15-9, 4.37 ERA in 2009
2. Carl Pavano
14-12, 5.10 ERA in 2009
3. Nick Blackburn
11-11, 4.03 ERA in 2009
4. Kevin Slowey
10-3, 4.86 ERA in 2009
5. Francisco Liriano
5-13, 5.80 ERA in 2009

I know that I’ve gone back and forth between having a daily link dump, and then doing a weekly one, and pretty much every iteration in between. Well here is what I’ve decided: I’ll do link dumps whenever I have enough good links that it makes sense. It might be once a day, it might be once a week. But whenever it is, you’ll get plenty of tasty sports web goodness to feast on.

First up today? Big news in Minnesota where the Twins have inked Joe Mauer for the next decade. And then after that, a link to Guyism’s very nice gallery of Super Media Day hotties. You’re welcome guys.

Update: Hang on just a second about that Joe Mauer contract extension…

MLB:

• Minnesota Twins Ink Joe Mauer for 10 More Years — (Sports Untapped)

NFL:

• The Hottest Women of Super Bowl Media Day — (Guyism)
• The Pro Bowl doesn’t suck…do you? — (Style Points Blog)
• Oh Jimmy Mac, why don’t you shut your trap — (i94 Sports)
• Unfortunately, this is still legal in Wisconsin and Minnesota — (Blog Down, Chicago Bears)
• Super Bowl pre-gaming with Craigs List — (Hugging Harold Reynolds)

College Football:

• Great post about Big Ten Expansion — (Frank the Tank)

NBA:

• Charles Barkley’s new Taco Bell spots are pretty good — (That NBA Lottery Pick)
• The New Four Horsemen: LeBron, John Wall, John Calipari, and Worldwide Wes — (Waiting for Next Year)

MISC:

• 15 sexy demotivational posters for the dork in you (NSFW) — (Uncoached)
• Best “Super Bowl Shuffle” parody you’ll see all week — (Tremendous Upside Potential)
• Chicago athletes that should definitely keep their shirts on — (Chicago Sports Mob)
• Cheerleaders of the 2010 Pro Bowl — (Gunaxin)
• Man blows up car trying to defrost it — (MoonDog)
• 15 Worst Birthday Gifts to Give Your Girlfriend — (Manolith)