While I doubt any of us will apologize for the latter, we were all proven wrong on the former.

So on behalf of the MSF team, which worked extremely hard this March to provide tournament coverage, let me say this about our title game predictions: we were wrong.

Congratulations to Connecticut. Any team that goes from Big East Tournament 9 seed to National Champion, without losing in between, is a deserving champion. This was an historic run that will most likely never be duplicated, and the Huskies should be unequivocally commended.

Congratulations Connecticut Huskies and UConn fans. There are conversations to be had about your coach, but they are better left for another night.

Tonight, you are national champions, and you earned it by playing the biggest under the brightest lights. For that, the UConn players deserve to have the spotlight solely on them tonight.

Butler, thank you for making the last two Marches exciting despite the Hoosiers being out of it. You gave everyone from Indiana something to cheer for, and losing tonight doesn’t diminish it one bit.

Jim Calhoun and his Big East Tournament champion Huskies take on Steve Fisher and his #2 seeded San Diego State Aztecs. There will be plenty of athleticism to go around in this one, plus two guys with very bright futures at the next level: Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard.

Sweet 16: Connecticut v San Diego State

• Date: Thursday, March 24th
• Time: 7:15 ET
• TV: CBS
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Location and Arena: Anaheim, CA at The Honda Center
• Point Spread: Pick ‘em
• Over-Under: 128.5

Statistical breakdown via ESPN Bracket Predictor:

Connecticut-San Diego State Analysis and Prediction

I underestimated Connecticut coming into this tournament. They were just 9-9 in the Big East during the regular season, and I was not sure that their sterling performance in the Big East tournament was anything more than just a hot week. And, truth be told, I’m still not sure exactly what Connecticut is after following that great 5-day run up with wins over Bucknell and Cincinnati.

Here is what I do know about Connecticut: Kemba Walker is outstanding. He can get his shot almost anytime he wants it, and his presence – and the defensive attention he demands – frees up other people on the floor. The Huskies score 1.07 points per possession, which is a solid number, in large part because of their catalyst.

For San Diego State, it’s all about defense. The Aztecs were one of the best defensive teams in the country this year, holding opponents to fewer than .9 points per possession and to an outstanding effective field goal percentage of 43.8%. Now, obviously they did not play a schedule as tough as UCONN’s, but the schedule SDSU played is not as light as you might think. They beat fellow Sweet 16 team BYU multiple times, and the Mountain West Conference is much better than people give it credit for.

I will readily admit that I have not watched these two teams play much. I caught some of Connecticut in the Big East Tournament and I watched San Diego State play Temple. When you look at their body of work this season, it is hard to know just how representative, if at all, those games were of who these two teams are. So I don’t feel comfortable writing out a long, wordy analysis because, well, I just do not have that much to say.

But here is what I know. When I look to make a pick between two teams I don’t know much about, I usually look at the following criteria:

• Who is better on defense? San Diego State.
• Who has the best player? Connecticut.
• Who has the best coach? Toss up. Jim Calhoun is outstanding, but don’t discount Steve Fisher’s ability to get his team playing loosely and confidently come tourney time. Remember, he’s coached in three national championship games.

Well crap. It comes out at 1-1-1, which really doesn’t help me pick!

I guess for me this game comes down to gut feel. When I originally did my bracket predictions, I had San Diego State in the Final 4. I would revise that now, with Kyrie Irving back for Duke, but I still think the Aztecs are underrated and have what it takes to get to Houston. Connecticut is definitely on a roll, but I think San Diego State will present a better, more athletic defense than I’ve seen in a while – yes, even considering the Big East Tournament.

This one will definitely be a close one, and a UCONN victory would not shock me in the least, but I’m sticking with Steve Fisher and the Aztecs.

• San Diego State-UCONN Prediction: San Diego State 65 – UCONN 62
• San Diego State-UCONN Spread Pick: San Diego State (pick ‘em)
• San Diego State-UCONN Over-Under: Under

With that being the case, it seemed more than reasonable that we take a few moments to analyze the most important individuals for the upcoming month. No, I’m not talking about John Wall, Evan Turner, or any of the players; this is college basketball, where any talk of “most important individual” begins and ends with the coaches (who, by way of their massive egos and general self-aggrandizing propensities, wouldn’t have it any other way.)

Today’s discussion will center around one simple question: who is the best active coach in college basketball?

The way I see it, a case can really only be made for eight men to even be in the discussion. I’ll rank all eight, and then you can agree or disagree in the comment section.

As is always the case for discussions like this one, it is important to lay out some parameters and criteria. For example, it is hard to argue with Mike Krzyzewski’s overall resume, but he has not been nearly as successful recently as Roy Williams (until this year of course). And I don’t want this to simply be an overall resume comparison because that is neither fun nor wholly relevant to today.

So here is my criteria:

• I am the athletic director of School A, which plays in a big conference, has a strong basketball tradition, but has fallen on some relatively hard times.
• I can hire any coach currently coaching in college basketball.
• I will be judged in four years on how well the coach I chose did. If he wins a national championship, I automatically receive a contract extension. If he doesn’t then NCAA Tournament success, conference championships, and program reputation and integrity will be taken into account when determining my fate.

As previously mentioned, I see only eight coaches who can reasonably be included in this discussion. To provide a frame of reference and some important historical data points, here are my top 8 best active coaches in college basketball (listed in no particular order):

Best Active College Basketball Coaches By the Numbers

* – John Calipari has reached two Finals Fours (one with UMass, one with Memphis) but both were later vacated.
^ – Does not include 2009-10 season

[Note: guys who just missed the cut include: Ben Howland (no titles, current struggles); Jay Wright (not enough sustained success); Mark Few (no big conference experience, no titles); and some others. ***Note: See end of post for an addendum to this list.]

Now let’s rank ‘em, going in reverse order because it’s more fun that way.

8. John Calipari, Kentucky

Do I bring my personal biases against John Calipari to this debate? You betcha. But the facts are the facts: Calipari is the only coach out of these eight to never have won a title, and he has also never officially be to a Final Four because both times he went it was vacated.

So while Calipari (thanks to his Worldwide Wes ties) might be the best choice for a quick turnaround, he has not proven that he can lead a champion, and he certainly has not proven that he can build a basketball program in a way that will not get it into trouble down the road. I’ll pass.

7. Jim Calhoun, UCONN

Calhoun is a great coach and is among the small handful of active coaches (Donovan, Williams, Coach K) who have won two National Championships. However, with his current health problems and the accusations of impropriety at UCONN over the years (the story about Stanley Robinson that broke during last year’s NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16 that was vacated from 1996), I’m a little wary of choosing Calhoun over the other names still there for the taking.

6. Billy Donovan, Florida

Donovan made this groups because he, like Calhoun, is among the very small handful of active coaches who have won two National Championships. Obviously a coach gets huge extra credit in any grading scale for achieving the ultimate goal multiple times. Donovan has also won better than 70% of his games and made another Final Four, so despite his team’s recent struggles, he cannot simply be chalked up as a two-year wonder. He did, however, ride one recruiting class to the majority of his success, so I’d like to see Donovan be a little bit more consistent before I’m ready to choose him over the other terrific names in this discussion.

5. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse

As Boeheim’s career progresses, and as he passes legend after legend on the all-time victories list, he becomes more and more of a legend in his own right. Boeheim’s career numbers are staggering, and the fact that he has done it all while coaching at the same school since 1976 is even more staggering.

Critics of Boeheim will say that he has had three teams this decade make only the NIT and that he has also dealt with NCAA violations (1993). However, Boeheim has taken three teams all the way to the NCAA Championship game and is one Keith Smart jump shot away from having two titles.

It’s a tough call between Donovan and Boeheim, two coaches have proven they can take a program to the top but also that they are not immune from occasional dips. I’ll give Boeheim the edge because of his much more meaty resume and extra credit because of his program’s higher level of success over the last couple of years.

Now it gets really tough…

4. Mike Kryzewski, Duke

If we were ranking the best active college basketball coaches simply by overall resume, Coach K would obviously be #1. He has more wins, more Sweet 16s, more Final Fours, and more titles than any other active coach. Plus, he continues to field competitive teams on a year-in, year-out basis and do so without even a whiff of scandal or impropriety.

But here is my question about Coach K when it comes to comparing him to the others on this list based future results: is he still capable of building a national champion?

Coach K last won a title in 2001. Since then, he has made five Sweet 16s and a Final Four. This is obviously quite good. However, the last three seasons include only one Sweet 16 and an 11-loss 2007 that resulted in a 6th place finish in the ACC. While this year’s Duke team has flown under the radar nationally despite its solid 25-4 record, I don’t hear much talk about them as a title contender.

Obviously you can never go wrong having Mike Kryzewksi lead your basketball program, but I think the three remaining choices are all – at this stage in their respective careers – more optimum choices if we are looking at the hypothetical four year scenario laid out at the beginning of this post.

3. Tom Izzo, Michigan State

There are going to be Duke fans and others who will be incredulous that I have Izzo over Coach K. I understand that. Coach K’s career numbers clearly dwarf Izzo’s and if you go back to the beginning of this decade, there is very little separating them. I give Izzo the edge over Coach K, just like I gave Boeheim the edge over Donovan, because he has had more immediately recent success.

Yes, Izzo’s teams in 2006 and 2007 finished in the middle of the pack of a mediocre Big Ten and made early NCAA Tournament exits. However, those teams built the foundation for the Spartans’ Sweet 16 appearance in 2008 and their run to the NCAA title game in 2009. This year, Izzo once again has a team that, despite an up and down regular season, is seen by many as a threat to pull it all together at the right time and reach another Final Four.

And why not? Izzo’s five Final Four appearances in 15 seasons as a head coach is incredible. It is by far the best ratio of any active coach. Add to all of that his consistency (no NIT appearances since his second season in East Lansing) and the lack of any scandal surrounding his program, and in my mind he’s a better choice today, for the next four years, than Coach K would be.

Oh, and Izzo gets a tiny little bit of extra credit for the fact that the student section at the Breslin Center goes by the awesome, eponymous moniker “The Izzone”. You have to be a badass to have a student section named after you. (But you have to earned it with some sustained success and deep tourney runs, so the “Paint Crew” in West Lafayette still sucks.)

While I would take Izzo over Coach K, he is not quite as good a choice as these next two guys.

2. Roy Williams, North Carolina

Without the Tar Heels’ unexpected and precipitous plunge this season, it would be hard to keep Ol’ Roy out of the top spot. He left Lawrence with the reputation of a guy who “couldn’t win the big one” and has now ended all of that talk by delivering two National Championships to Chapel Hill since 2005. He has also made two Elite 8s and a third Final Four since taking over North Carolina. Additionally, we cannot forget that despite not being able to take Kansas all the way to a championship, he did make two Final Fours (including a title game appearance) during his last two seasons with the Jayhawks.

But what the hell is going on this season?

North Carolina, with a roster full of McDonald’s All-Americans, is 15-14, 4-10 in ACC play, and will miss the Big Dance without an unexpected victory in the ACC Tournament. It is hard to explain what has happened to the Tar Heels, and it has often seemed like even Williams has been at a loss. Still, results are results, and if we’re going to give Williams credit for his wins we must also hold his feet to the fire for a season that, by all accounts, should not be happening.

Williams has another top notch recruiting class coming in next season, led by the highly touted Harrison Barnes, so the expectation is that he and the Tar Heels won’t be down for long. And perhaps we all should have expected more of a drop off for Carolina with so many veterans departing from last year’s title team. If the Tar Heels struggle again next year, it’s reasonable to start worrying. Until then, Williams has earned a mulligan, especially considering the fact that he is one year removed from coaching one of the more dominant NCAA Tournament runs we’ve seen in a long time.

1. Bill Self, Kansas

It must be nice to be a Kansas basketball fan.

The rock-chockers were understandably upset when Roy Williams left after taking the Jayhawks to the title game in 2003, but since then his replacement has won at a ridiculous .824 clip while delivering three Elite 8 appearances and a national title. That he has his team poised for another deep tourney run this year, while Williams endures the toughest season of his career, is what gives Bill Self the edge and the title – at the moment - of best coach in college basketball today.

Self has won everywhere he has been and, like most coaches, needed the foundation of one of college basketball’s most storied traditions to reach his full potential and the promised land. While Self has only won one National Championship thus far, it is important to remember the primary criteria set forth at the beginning of this article. I set out looking for the coach that I’d want for the next four years. I could not find a better choice.

Kansas has lost only 20 games since the start of the 2006-07 season under Self and has not been eliminated before the Elite 8. He also won or tied for the Big 12 regular season title six out of his seven seasons (including this year) in Lawrence. With experience in the backcourt (Sherron Colllins), a terrific big man (Cole Aldrich), and an exciting freshman (Xavier Henry), plus many other talented players, Kansas is rightfully on the short list of NCAA Tournament favorites for this year.

His relative youth, consistency, recruiting prowess, tournament success, and conference dominance make Bill Self the choice. I cannot believe that I am bestowing such an honor on someone who was once the coach in Champaign, but it is hard to argue with his resume and potential.

Now it’s your turn. Chime in with your vote and use the comment section to voice your agreement or disagreement.

Update 3/3: Digg commenters brought up a few going points. Gary Williams should have at least been listed in the “just missed it” section. Also, as one commenter asked, where is Rick Pitino?

Pitino’s recent personal troubles notwithstanding, he has certainly proven to worthy of inclusion in this list. To give Pitino his due, I will copy/paste what was written at Digg, because it makes the case quite well…although I don’t agree that he would be a better choice than Self or Boeheim at this stage in all of their respective careers.

It’s complete insanity that Rick Pitino is not on this list.

He has been to the Final Four 5 times. He has taken 3 different teams to the Final Four (no one else has ever done that). He has guided his last two Louisville teams to the Elite Eight. Louisville won the regular season and conference championships last year in the Big East (in what many called the season for a conference ever). He has never had to abandon a Final Four (Calipari had had to do that twice). I would put him on this list ahead of Self, Calhoun, Boeheim and the completely insane Calipari. How could you ever pick a corrupt coach like Calipari to guide your program. If you don’t think that Kentucky is going to get nailed for this the illegality of the 2009 recruiting class… you’re naive. The man is a proven cheater.

**********

* – John Calipari photo credit: At The Box
* – Tom Izzo photo credit: SlamOnline.com
* – Roy Williams crouching photo credit: CoolSpotters.com
* – Bill Self shocked photo credit: CollegeInsider.com
* – Bill Self cutting down the nets photo credit: SI.com

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

This post will analyze the Michigan State-Connecticut Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

This is the Final Four matchup, Michigan State versus UConn, that I picked from the very start. I have to admit that I became less and less confident that it would actually happen as the tournament unfolded, but it has proven a few tournament cliches true:

• Teams with talented, experienced, and battle-tested guards win in March.
• Teams that get consistent production from their low-post players win in March.
• Free throw shooting matters in March.

Michigan State and UConn have not been perfect in these areas through four games, but they have been better and more consistent in these areas than any other team on their side of the bracket. And the reason is the two incredible coaches that are on the sideline: Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun.

UConn coach Jim Calhoun started his career at Northeastern University in 1972. He remained their coach until 1986 and compiled a 248-137 record. In five out of his last six seasons there, they made the NCAA Tournament, three times advancing to the second round. In 1986, Calhoun took over a struggling Connecticut program and went a combined 13-35 in the Big East during his first three seasons in Storrs. Since then, he has won two national championships, reached the Final Four this year, made five other Elite 8 appearances, four additional Sweet 16 appearances, and earned 556 victories against only 204 losses. Without question, Jim Calhoun is among the top handful of coaches in America today.

Also with him in the handful of top coaches is Tom Izzo of Michigan State. I have made no secret of my basketball-man-crush on Tom Izzo, and the Spartans’ tournament run this season is only reinforcing what I’ve already thought: Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in America, period. You can debate who is the best, but you better include Izzo in the debate. (And I hope that someday his protege Tom Crean is in the debate as well, but that remains to be seen.)

Just look at the resume Tom Izzo has compiled in East Lansing since taking over for Jud Heathcote in 1995. Izzo is 335-136 and has tied or won the Big Ten conference five times. His true greatness, however, can be seen in the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans made the NIT during Izzo’s first two years in town, but have made the NCAA Tournament every season since 1997-98. During that span, Izzo and the Spartans have won a national championship (2000), reached the Final Four four other tmes (1999, 2001, 2005, 2009), reached the Elite 8 in 2003, and have been to the Sweet 16 two other times (1998, 2008). The Spartans’ masterful upset stomping of Louisville yesterday in Indianapolis was a microcosm of the tournament greatness that Izzo has consistently displayed at Michigan State.

This Saturday in Detroit, Izzo and the Spartans battle Calhoun and the Huskies for the chance to play for all the marbles on Monday night. UConn and its Big East pedigree are favored, but if we learned anything from this weekend, it is this: don’t count the Spartans out. They knocked off the Big East champions in impressive fashion and will no doubt give UConn all it can handle.

Let’s take a look at the particulars and then break down the game itself.

Michigan State-UConn Final Four Preview and Prediction

• Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
• Final Four Quick Preview
• Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
• TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
• MSU-UConn Game Time: 6:07 PM ET
• Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Spread: Connecticut -4.5
• Over-Under: 135
• ESPN Team Pages: Michigan State Spartans | Connecticut Huskies

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/30 at 7:45 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. I don’t know where ESPN gets the spread info listed below that is used on the Game Predictor.)

And now, it’s time to analyze this matchup.

As you know, I have been using the ESPN Game Predictor to analyze every game since the Sweet 16 started. Based on the output from the Game Predictor, plus my own intuition, I have correctly picked 11 out of the last 12 games (missing only on Syracuse-Oklahoma). And that’s straight up, I don’t know what the record is against the spread, but it’s probably 9 or 10 out of 12. (I don’t gamble, so I don’t pay attention to how the spread picks do.)

Either way, I have become significantly more accurate forecasting games with some actual data as opposed to just going on gut feeling and my limited experience watching all of these teams play.

With all that said, let’s see how these two teams stack up with respect to the same five statistical categories I have used to predict every game thus far:

• Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.096 | Michigan State – 1.058
• Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.891 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.268 | Michigan State – 1.181
• Free Throw %: UConn – 0.679 | Michigan State – 0.698
• Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.376 | Michigan State – 0.414

UConn holds advantages in four of the five statistical categories, although not significant advantages. Still, I expect a pretty strong pick by Game Predictor in the direction of UConn because of how the stats came out and by virtue of their seeding of their strength of schedule. Let’s see:

• Odds to Win Game: UConn – 60.0% | Michigan State – 40.0%
• Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 72.3 | Michigan State – 69.4
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +4): UConn – 53.6% | Michigan State – 46.4%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

Now, before I get into my thoughts on this game, I want to say a few very important things to all of the Spartans fans out there:

• The odds of Michigan State winning the Louisville game, according to Game Predictor, were 83.1% – 16.9%, with a confidence level of 4 stars. We know how that turned out.
• In my original bracket (which currently sits at 96.9% in the ESPN Bracket Challenge!) I picked UConn to beat Michigan State and eventually win it all over North Carolina.
• Bracket be damned, I will be rooting like crazy for Michigan State to win on Saturday.

However — and it pains me to say this — I do not have the same gut feeling about Michigan State beating UConn as I did about the Spartans defying the odds to beat Louisville.

Seeing as how this is a Midwest sports blog, and the Spartans have become my adopted team during this year’s tournament, let’s take a look at this game from an MSU perspective. Three reasons why they will win, and three reasons why they won’t.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat Connecticut

1 — Goran Suton is playing out of his mind right now

Goran Suton, as he was against Kansas and Louisville, will be the key for Michigan State. In both of my previous Michigan State previews I’ve discussed the importance of Raymar Morgan, but the reality has been that Goran Suton has been the perfect Robin to Kalin Lucas’ Batman. Suton scored 19 points and had 10 boards against Louisville after going for 20-9 against Kansas. The Spartans need similar production from him on Saturday, and there is no reason to believe he can’t provide it.

Here is what else he needs to do: draw Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket at times, but also get the ball in the post and be savvy enough to draw fouls on the UConn big man. Connecticut only lost three games this year, two of them to Pitt and one to Georgetown. In one of the Pitt losses by UConn, Thabeet only played 23 minutes before fouling out with 5 points, 2 blocks and 4 rebounds. Against Georgetown, Thabeet played 34 minutes but only scored 4 points and had 7 rebounds to go along with 7 blocks. If Michigan State can get Thabeet in foul trouble and/or force him to struggle on the offensive end, it will greatly improve their chances. Goran Suton has to play a key role in any Thabeet neutralization strategy, and he certainly appears up to the task right now.

2 — Michigan State will be playing before a home-court crowd in Detroit

East Lansing is only a 90 minute from drive Detroit, and obviously there are lots of Spartan fans in the city already. Not since Duke played in the Final Four in Charlotte (eventually losing the title game to Arkansas) has a team enjoyed this kind of Final Four home court advantage. And it’s the best of both worlds for the Spartans: they were great away from home this year, but now get to play away from home in an environment that will still be hostile for their opponent. As an underdog, the home crowd can help to give the Spartans momentum. If Michigan State can keep the game close, the crowd will be their best friend.

3 — Kalin Lucas is one of the most underrated great players in America

I realize that Kalin Lucas was named Big Ten Player of the Year, but I still do not think he gets the recognition he deserves. I’m a Big Ten fan, and I did not truly come to appreciate Lucas until this tourney run. All he has done in the last two games is outduel Kansas’ scintillating point guard Sherron Collins, and then completely control the pace and tempo of the Louisville game against physical guys that were bigger than him. Lucas is a great ball-handler, an excellent passer, and an outstanding shooter. He is great spotting up or off the drive looking to score or to dish. He is slight of frame, and will be going up against a tremendously large and physical defense in UConn, but his quickness can help him overcome this disadvantage. If he can get into the lane, draw Hasheem Thabeet, and find open cutters or spot-up shooters, Michigan State can get open looks. If the Spartans knock them down, they will stay right with the Huskies.

3a — Depending on if there are any more revelations in the UConn recruiting controversy, the Huskies could be distracted

I don’t think this will be an issue, and it won’t e if nothing new develops with this story. I think Jim Calhoun is perfectly adept at dealing with the inevitable questions he will get about this story, and UConn did not seem the least bit distracted by it in disposing of Purdue and Missouri. I throw this out only as a caveat, since I am making this prediction on Monday. There are plenty of 24-hour news cycles between now and Saturday for the dust to be kicked up and distractions to take hold; but in the end, I don’t think the potential recruiting scandal at UConn will influence this game one way or the other.

Three Reasons Why Connecticut will beat Michigan State

1 — Hasheem Thabeet is a presence unlike any Michigan State has dealt with this year.

Let’s be honest: Hasheem Thabeet is unlike any presence any opposing team has dealt with this year in college basketball. 13.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks per game are the numbers, but Thabeet obviously affects a basketball game in multiple ways. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he will turn Michigan State into a jump shooting team, while offering UConn the ability to score down low on the other end.

Michigan State will undoubtedly try to draw Thabeet away from the basket by putting Suton out high like they did against Louisville. When this happens, I would not be surprised to see the Huskies let someone like Jeff Adrien or Stanley Robinson match up against him. Adrien is 6’7 with a big body and Robinson is 6’9 with a long wingspan. They can take turns bodying Suton up and making it hard for him to shoot his jumper, while simultaneously allowing Thabeet to roam the paint and take away the drive.

Either way, one of UConn’s great strengths is their ability to match up defensively with anyone they play. Tom Izzo will have to be ready to adjust and Kalin Lucas will need to penetrate into the teeth of the defense to create havoc.

2 — AJ Price is every bit as good as Kalin Lucas

Price is one of my favorite players in the country, and another guy that I think is underappreciated. he averages 14.7 points and 4.8 assists per game and is the Huskies’ most consistent shooter from three-point range. You need excellent guard play to win in the Final Four, especially against a team with a player as good as Kalin Lucas, and AJ Price gives UConn that dimension. And as Kemba Walker showed against Missouri, he can step in and provide clutch plays as well.

I like Price’s confidence and his calm demeanor and he will not get rattled even if Ford Field sounds like the Breslin Center. He has gone toe-to-toe with the best point guards in the Big East, playing in some of the most hostile environments, and has proven that he is one of the best in the country.

3 — Michigan State is a better free throw shooting team, but UConn gets to the line more often

As you can see above, the Spartans hold a 69.8% to 67.9% advantage over UConn in free throw shooting. However, for the season, Connecticut made 641 free throws out of 943 attempts, while Michigan State made 577 free throws on 828 attempts. The Huskies are big and physical at every position and the Spartans have to be careful not to foul too often. As we saw during the Elite 8 (especially in the Louisville-MSU and Pitt-Villanova games) the refs are calling things tight in the tournament. Against Louisville, Michigan State was whistled for 22 fouls and the Cardinals shot 18 free throws to the Spartans’ 7. Yet, Louisville only shot 55.6% from the line.

I don’t think the Spartans will be so fortunate if there is nearly a 2:1 ratio in free throw attempts and the ratio favors UConn.

The Huskies hit 26-32 from the line against Missouri, and 19-30 from the line against Purdue. In both games they dominated in free throws made and attempted, and the disparity in free throws made was larger than the final margin of victory. This is a huge part of the winning formula for UConn and the Spartans must be mindful of limiting the Huskies’ free attempts at the line.

With the way the tournament is being called this year, and UConn’s size and style of play, I think this could ultimately be the Spartans undoing.

As I said above, I picked UConn to win it all before the tournament started, but I have thrown my full fan support behind Michigan State. I love Tom Izzo, I love the way Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton, and Goran Suton are playing, and I love the fact that the city of Detroit gets to cheer on the home state team as we culminate another thrilling NCAA Tournament.

I just don’t think Michigan State will get by UConn.

I think they will keep it close and beat the 4-point spread, and I certainly think that they can win — in fact, I will never again be surprised by a Tom Izzo team winning a game it is not “supposed” to win in the tournament. And while I think that the Spartans’ chances are better than 40% to win, as predicted by Game Predictor, I think the chances are only about 46-47%. So if you ask me who I think will win, I have to answer UConn.

I hope I’m wrong, and I’ll be cheering hard that I am. But I do think that the most fitting way for this season to end is with an all Big East championship game. I don’t know yet whether or not I am predicting Villanova to upset North Carolina, but I am predicting Connecticut to hold up their end of the bargain.

What do you think?

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Now that I’ve given you my keys to the UConn-MSU game, and my prediction, feel free to use the comment section for yours. I only chose three on each side, but there are plenty of other important storylines and matchups that will help determine this game. Spartan fans, your job is to please convince me why I’m wrong and give me more hope heading into Saturday.

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

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This post will analyze the UConn-Missouri Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

One of these two teams I expected to get this far. The other one not so much. One of these teams was my championship pick on my original bracket. The other team I had getting bounced in round two.

So you would think that this would be an easy prediction right?

Wrong.

The horse I decided to ride all the way through the brackets to the championship was UConn. I didn’t necessarily “decide” on them, per se, as much as I was led to picking them because of the bracket picking system I devised. Still, I wasn’t too upset or surprised. UConn is a very good team that is extremely strong at point guard and center. The loss of Jerome Dyson certainly hurt, but this appeared like a team with enough juice to go all the way.

And I still think they can. But I’m a little worried.

All of the hubbub over the investigation into potential recruiting violations has to be a distraction. It obviously did not affect them too much against Purdue, but it might start to as the story gains steam. Maybe it won’t affect the team as much as it will Jim Calhoun, but I think UConn needs their fiery coach at his best to navigate through the defensive scheme and intensity of Missouri.

Which brings me to the real reason I’m worried: Missouri is a damn good team. I underestimated them in the Big 12 Tournament. I underestimated them in the NCAA Tournament, and now here they are, ready to play for a shot at the first Final Four in school history.

Let’s outline the particulars of the game and then we’ll jump right into a prediction.

UConn-Missouri Elite 8 Regional Final Preview

• StubHub: West Region Elite 8 Regional Final Tickets
• West Regional Breakdown
• Date: Saturday, March 28
• TV Time: 4:40 PM on CBS
• Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: UConn -5 (according to ESPN Game Predictor)
• Over-Under: 150 1/2

Before I offer my own first impressions and prediction for this game, let’s see how Game Predictor views the action, based on the same five statistical categories we used to analyze the Sweet 16 games.

• Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.098 | Missouri – 1.100
• Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.888 | Missouri – 0.918
• Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.284 | Missouri – 1.538
• Free Throw %: UConn – 0.674 | Missouri – 0.668
• Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.374 | Missouri – 0.418

Other than the significant advantage for UConn in terms of defensive field goal percentage, these two teams are very evenly matched across these five categories. My anticipation is that UConn will be a slight favorite by Game Predictor based on the SOS and higher seed (and I base this on the results of the Sweet 16 predictions). Let’s see:

• Odds to Win Game: UConn – 59.4% | Missouri – 40.6%
• Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 70.8 | Missouri – 68.2
• Odds to Cover Spread (MIZZOU +5): UConn – 45.9% | Missouri – 54.1%
• Confidence Level: 2 Stars

So a relatively solid vote of confidence for UConn, at least for an Elite 8 game where each team should be pretty evenly matched. Here the issues though:

1. UConn was not as good after the Dyson injury as they were before. However, the stats used in my original bracket analysis and this Game Predictor analysis take into account their performance with a healthy Dyson in the lineup.
2. Game Predictor obviously cannot factor in the swirling controversy about the recruiting violations. I don’t know to what extent this will affect UConn — no one does — but let’s put it this way: I don’t see it as a positive in any way.

Still, I can’t abandon the Huskies. Not yet anyway.

I really like this Missouri team. They obviously play a very frenetic style of defense and an up-tempo style, yet they have an impeccable Assist/TO ratio. Additionally, they have scoring balance on offense. All five starters scored in double figures against Memphis with JT Tiller leading the way with 23. Plus, the duo of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons is outstanding. They had a combined 32 points and 18 rebounds against a Memphis team with a strong presence inside. This bodes well for their ability to compete against the inside presence of Hasheem Thabeet.

But, I am not going to get carried away yet and jump two-feet first onto the Missouri bandwagon. Yes, they had an impressive win over Marquette; but it was against a Marquette team playing with a hobbled Dominic James. And after jumping out to a big lead they had to hang on late. Their win over Memphis was obviously impressive as well; but I have not been a believer in Memphis all year so I am not ready to anoint them West Region champs simply because of that victory. And just like in the Marquette game, Missouri displayed an inability to shut the door by letting Memphis back into the game late — though they never relinquished the lead.

The fact of the matter is that a week ago, I would not have thought twice about who to pick in this game. After how well Missouri has played over the last three weeks, they have given me plenty of reasons to pause long and hard and consider their chances.

At the end of the day though, I am a sucker for experienced backcourts and teams that can control the paint defensive. UConn is led by a player I love, senior AJ Price, and his senior backcourt teammate Craig Austrie. And, of course, they have Hasheem Thabeet down low who has proven all year, and did again last night against Purdue, that if he stays out of foul trouble he is an absolute beast and gives UConn a huge advantage against every team in American that does not have a 7’3 center with great defensive timing — which is pretty much every team in America.

This is a fascinating game between two outstanding teams with plenty of compelling storylines to go around. In the end, this game will come down to what most UConn games come down to: can Hasheem Thabeet stay on the floor and can UConn get enough scoring from their backcourt. UConn beat Purdue because Thabeet played 36 minutes, grabbed 15 rebounds, scored 15 points, and controlled the paint with 4 blocks. UConn also got 32 points from Price and Austrie on 9-21 shooting, plus 11 assists against only 4 turnovers from the duo. If these three guys produce like that against Missouri, UConn will win.

But if Thabeet gets in foul trouble, or Price and Austrie get out of their comfort zone against the Tigers’ D, Missouri has a great chance to win. Mix in the prospect of the Huskies being distracted as a result of the recruiting violation story, and the game gets ever so close to being a complete toss-up in my mind — and I start to think that Missouri may even be the “safer” pick.

There are lots of variables on the UConn side, but they are also the better team when they are at their best. I’m not ready to say that I am still 100% committed to them as the eventual national champions, but I am willing to say that they’ll at least reach the Final Four. Missouri will put up a great fight, and UConn better be ready. I think they will be. I like Missouri with the points (assuming the spread stays at 5, and I’ve only seen it listed on ESPN), but UConn to win straight up. And I can’t wait to see how this one actually unfolds once the ball is tipped.

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Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN