I don’t really know that to say about Week 6.

I suppose there were some not-so-surprising results (Tom Brady and Randy Moss dominating, Drew Brees and Marques Colston dominating, Derek Anderson sucking, etc.) but they were countered by some very surprising results.

How does Cedric Benson dominate Baltimore and struggle against Houston? How do the Eagles get dominated by the Raiders? How does Adrian Peterson not get in the endzone when he ran that well. What happened to the time share between Ray Rice and Willis McGahee???

In the end, I guess Week 6 was like every other week: some stuff happened that we expect, some other stuff happened that we didn’t, and now we have to pick up the pieces and move on.

So let’s do it. Onto the Week 7 start em, sit em lineup advice and projections post.

Fantasy Flash Podcast – Week 7

Fantasy Football Lineup Advice with Jerod and Kurt

(podcast will be available Wednesday)

Here is how my Week 6 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks shook out:

• Start ‘em hits: Jonathan Stewart (17 carries, 110 yards, TD), New York Jets D (16 pts, 2 TOs, 1 sack)
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Hasselbeck (112 yards, 1 INT), Santana Moss (1 rec, 42 yards), Jermichael Finley (5 rec, 54 yards)
• Sit ‘em hits: Derek Anderson (122 yards passing, TD, INT), Jamal Lewis & Jerome Harrison (47 yards rushing),Terrell Owens (3 rec, 13 yards), Chris Cooley (5 rec, 57 yards), New York GIants D (48 pts, o TOs, 1 sack)
• Sit ‘em misses: Lee Evans (4 rec, 68 yards, TD)

I’m proud of the Jonathan Stewart pick, but my other start picks really left something to be desired, especially Hasselbeck. I don’t know what happened to Seattle, but I think everyone expected a better performance out of them against the Cardinals, who had been one of the worst teams in the NFL against the pass before last week.

Regardless, it was obviously much smarter to listen to me when it came to sits in Week 6.

This week is one of the most important start em, sit em columns of the season, as there are six teams on their bye this week. If you own Ravens, Broncos, Jaguars, Lions, Seahawks, or Titans (I do! I do!), you are going to need replacements this week.

I’ve worked hard to give you some wise advice for this week to help you navigate through what could be a tricky matchup for you. Let’s get to it.

Fantasy Football

Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘em: Jay Cutler, Bears (at Bengals)

Here’s a stat for you:

• In two Sunday night games this year, Jay Cutler is has 3 TDs and 6 INTs.
• In three Sunday afternoon games this year, Jay Cutler has 7 TDs and 1 INT.

Cutler and the Bears take on the Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon. And while the Bengals have had a nice start to the season, they are not doing well against the pass. They are 28th in the league, giving up 254.8 yards passing per game, with 9 TDs and 5 INTs. Here is all you need to know: Derek Anderson has thrown for 145 yards over the past two weeks; he threw for 269 against Cincinnati in Week 4.

Matt Forte still is showing no signs of consistent life, meaning this game will be on Cutler’s shoulders. He’s proven that he can bounce back well from tough games (remember, I listed him as my Start ‘em QB after his terrible Week 1 performance), and I think he’ll do so Sunday.

Jay Cutler Week 7 projection: 270 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 7: Aaron Rodgers, GB (at Cleveland); Matt Schaub, HOU (vs San Francisco); Matt Ryan, ATL (at Dallas)

Sit ‘em: Donovan McNabb, Eagles (at Washington)

As with Jay Cutler, I’ll give you two stat lines that convince me sitting Donovan McNabb for this week is a good thing:

1. 22-46, 269 yards, 0 TDs against Oakland
2. 169.0 passing yards per game given up (3rd in NFL) and only 5 TDs

The first is McNabb’s personal line from last week; the second is the Redskins’ defense against the pass. I want to see McNabb have a good game and see this Eagles’ offense get back into rhythm before I’m playing McNabb over some of the other favorable QB matchups out there this week. The Redskins suck, no question, but the majority of their problems lie on offense. Their games have been low scoring and hell for fantasy owners because their defense is pretty solid.

McNabb certainly is capable of going off on Monday against anyone, but you have more stones than I do if you can confidently start him against the 3rd ranked pass defense in the league after that mess in Oakland on Sunday.

Donovan McNabb Week 7 projection: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 7: Brett Favre, MIN (at Pittsburgh); Chad Henne, MIA (vs New Orleans); Derek Anderson, CLE (vs Green Bay); Mark Sanchez, NYJ (at Oakland); Jake Delhomme, CAR (vs Buffalo)

Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘em: Laurence Maroney, New England (vs Tampa Bay in London)

I’m doing something I never thought I’d do: recommending a New England running back as a start ‘em. Sometimes the matchups are just so obvious that they dictate otherwise curious decisions like this one. But once again, there are two stats that jump out to me:

1. Maroney has generated 144 yards and a TD on his last 21 carries against good run defenses (Denver, Tennessee)
2. Tampa Bay has the second-worst run defense in the NFL, giving up 171.7 yards per game on the ground plus six TDs.

Would I be shocked if Maroney somehow ended up with only 6-7 carries and few yards? Normally, no I wouldn’t be. But this week, with as well as Maroney has been running the ball, yes I would be surprised. With Fred Taylor out, I think the Patriots want Maroney to be the guy. He’ll get the initial carries and should have success against the Bucs, which should keep him on the field.

With so many good running backs on bye this week, Maroney is an excellent fill-in candidate and possibly even a sneaky RB #2 or flex option moving forward.

Laurence Maroney Week 7 projection: 18 carries, 85 yards, TD, 2 rec, 9 yards

Quick note: make sure you play both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart this week. They both were great last week, appear to be following the same arc they did last year, and face the worst run D in the league this week: Buffalo.

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 7: Ryan Grant, GB (at Cleveland); Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, NYJ (at Oakland); Cadillac Williams, TB (vs New England in London); Donald Brown and Joseph Addai, IND (at St. Louis); Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, BUF (at Carolina)

Sit ‘em: Jerome Harrison, Browns (vs Green Bay Packers)

I am putting Jerome Harrison here hoping that I am wrong. I really am. I still believe he should be getting the majority of the carries for the Browns, but Harrison has only gotten 13 carries over the last two weeks and NO receptions.

I don’t get it, but it does make the Browns’ offensive woes a little more understandable.

Eric Mangini appears committed to Jamal Lewis, and thus until further notice I think you have to put Jerome Harrison on your bench. If and when Lewis gets hurt again, however, Harrison immediately becomes a valuable commodity.

Jerome Harrison Week 7 projection: 6 carries, 30 yards, 1 rec, 10 yards

A quick note about running backs: it is hard to determine sit ‘ems because I almost always will play a RB at flex if given the option. Thus, guys like Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are listed below, but take it more as a “lower your expectations” pick than a concrete sit ‘em. It’s all based on your particular roster. Feel free to ask specific questions in the comment section.

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 7: Mike Bell, Saints (at Miami); Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (vs Arizona…giving up less than 60 yards rushing per game!); Cedric Benson, CIN (vs Chicago);

Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘em: Austin Collie, Colts (at St. Louis Rams)

Okay, let’s stick with the theme. Here are the two stats that dictate this one:

1. Collie has 14 receptions, 162 yards, and 3 TDs over his last two games and plays for the most prolific passing offense in the NFL, one that is coming off its bye week.
2. Because of bye weeks, the Rams have the 3rd-worst passing defense playing this week, giving up an average of 252 yards per game and 8 TDs.

Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are obviously good starts every week, and Collie is quickly becoming a weekly start himself. There is enough to go around in Indy and Collie is already developing a fantasy-friendly relationship with Peyton Manning.

Austin Collie Week 7 projection: 6 rec, 81 yards, TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 7: Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, CHI (at Cincinnati); Lance Moore, NO (at Miami); Dwayne Bowe, KC (vs San Diego)

Sit ‘em: Steve Smith, Carolina (vs Buffalo)

It is a testament to how much I respect him as a player that I almost listed Steve Smith in the start ‘em category. But coming off of his 1 catch, 4-yard performance, and playing the 4th rated pass defense in the NFL (Buffalo), I just could not bring myself to do it.

The sad truth this week for Smith owners is that Carolina has a killer running game with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, and Buffalo has the worst run defense in the NFL. Plus, Carolina’s other receivers suck and can’t draw any coverage away from Smith.

I think Jake Delhomme and Carolina will try to get Smith the ball, and maybe even force it to him. Hence, why I almost decided to list him as a a start. But there is a reason why Smith has only 10 catches and 97 yards over the last three weeks. Unless you have no other decent options, let Smith have a good week first before you put him back in the lineup.

Steve Smith Week 7 projection: 4 catches, 57 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 7: Braylon Edwards, NYJ (at Oakland); Laveraneus Coles, CIN (vs Chicago); Antonio Bryant, TB (vs New England in London); Josh Morgan, SF (at Houston); Terrell Owens, BUF (at Carolina)

Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Start ‘em: Greg Olsen, Chicago (at Cincinnati)

Greg Olsen only has 112 receiving yards over his last three games, but look deeper at the numbers. He is averaging almost four catches per game (11 total) and has scored 3 TDs (one in each). Additionally, if you saw the ridiculous one-handed-while-falling-down catch he made against Atlanta, you know why Jay Cutler has begun developing more confidence in him.

Also know this about Olsen’s opponent Sunday: The Bengals, as I mentioned above, give up 254.8 passing yards and have surrendered 9 TDs. And last week against Houston, Owen Daniels went off, catching 7 passes for 78 yards and 2 TDs. I don’t know that Olsen can duplicate those numbers, but he is a solid bye week filler and could approach the Brent Celek/Vernon Davis level of tight ends as we move forward, especially if the Bears continue to struggle running the football.

Greg Olsen Week 7 projection: 5 catches, 61 yards, TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 7: Vernon Davis, SF (at Houston); Owen Daniels, HOU (vs SF); Jermichael Finley, GB (at Cleveland);

Sit ‘em: Zack Miller, Oakland (vs New York Jets)

Sorry, I’m not buying it yet.

I know that Miller had a ridiculous day this past Sunday against Philadelphia, catching six passes for 139 yards and a TD. And I know that he has 10 catches and over 200 yards over his last two games against the Giants and the Eagles.

Still, I don’t trust his QB, which makes it hard to trust Zack Miller.

And while Miller has scored against the Giants and Eagles (1st and 5th, respectively, in passing yards allowed per game), those two teams have given up 8 passing touchdowns a piece this season. The Raiders’ opponent on Sunday is the Jets, a team that is 8th in passing yards allowed per game and has only given up four passing touchdowns all year.

I think Rex Ryan and the Jets D will be able to confuse Russell; and, after their loss to the Bills, the Jets won’t come in overconfident like the Eagles did. I think they shut down Russell and the Raiders’ passing game; hence, why I don’t start Miller this week.

Zack Miller Week 7 projection: 3 rec, 34 yards

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 7: Dustin Keller, NYJ (at Oakland); Randy McMichael, STL (vs Indianapolis); Kellen Winslow, TB (vs New England in London); Brent Celek, PHI (at Washington)

Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘em: New England Patriots D/ST (vs Tampa Bay in London)

Can you tell that I don’t give the Buccaneers much of a chance on Sunday?

Look, it boils down to this: the Patriots have the experience and talent of Brady, Moss, Welker, et al, plus an experienced coach in Bill Belichick. The Bucs have a first year coach in Raheem Morris, plus a first year QB in Josh Johnson, plus a roster that lacks talent in a lot of areas. If this was just a simple road game or a game at a neutral field in the U.S., it would be a little different. Considering the game is across the pond in London, I think it makes it even more difficult for the Bucs.

Do you really trust Morris and his young QB to be able to handle to pressure of a strange travel schedule, an entirely new country, and the Patriots? Me either. Start your Patriots, and their D.

New England D/ST Week 7 projection: 14 pts or less, 3 TOs, 3 sacks

Other start em D/ST units for Week 7: Indianapolis D/ST (at St. Louis); Philadelphia D/ST (at Washington); Green Bay D/ST (at Cleveland); New York Jets D/ST (at Oakland)

Sit ‘em: Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST and Minnesota Vikings D/ST

It’s not often that you sit one of these two defenses. And make no mistake: I would rather start them than have to drop them. That said, if you’re holding onto a second defense or can drop a WR you’re never going to use, there are some better options out there this week.

I just have a feeling that this game is going to become a shootout. Look at what happened in Minnesota’s game last week against Baltimore.

The Vikings are only 18th right now in total yards allowed per game. The Steelers, on the other hand, are 3rd in yards per game allowed and have Troy Polamalu back. But guess what? Minnesota is second in the league in scoring offense with 31.5 points per game. Pittsburgh is 7th at 23.3 points per game.

Both of these defenses still offer value because they will get sacks, probably force a turnover or two, and are always a threat to score touchdowns. Just be wary of expecting their normal production, and plug in a backup defense if you’re fortunate enough to have the wiggle room on your roster to carry one.

Pittsburgh D/ST Week 7 projection: 24+ pts allowed, 2 sacks, 2 TOs

Minnesota D/ST Week 7 projection: 24+ pts allowed, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other sit ‘em defenses for Week 7: Cincinnati D/ST (vs Bears), San Francisco D/ST (at Houston); Miami D/ST (vs New Orleans)

Well hopefully you get a lot of valuable information out of that. As always, feel free to ask your team-specific start em, sit em questions in the comment section. I will do my best to answer every one. We’ve been having a few commenting issues, so if you post a comment and it either a) doesn’t show up, or b) you don’t get a response, send me an email using the “Tips” link in the top navigation bar.

Also, I will be in Cleveland this weekend for the Sports Media 360 Conference and the Browns-Packers game. I most likely won’t be able to answer too many questions after Friday around noon, although I’ll try depending on my schedule once I arrive. But try to get your questions in before then and I’ll answer as many as I can.

Good luck in Week 7 everyone!

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* – Jay Cutler photo credit: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images via Zimbio

* – Austin Collie photo credit: MyColts.net

While preparing to answer another wave of questions in the comment section of my Week 5 start em, sit em post, the lightbulb of inspiration flickered above my head.

I spend so much time answering similar questions about similar players, that I might as well consolidate some of those answers into posts. 

Don’t worry, I’ll still answer your comments directly. But for the myriad people who are interested in Steve Slaton, Rashard Mendenhall, Jerome Harrison, Knowshon Moreno, and Glenn Coffee in Week 5 — many of whom seem to be faced with the task of choosing between two or three of them for starting spots — this post should help.

Here are my quick hit Week 5 rankings for these five players this week, plus some explanation.

1 – Steve Slaton — @ Arizona (#6 vs run, 1 TD allowed in ‘09) — 99% owned

Yes, I know his matchup appears to be the toughest, but keep this in mind: Arizona was a solid but not spectacular 16th against the run in 2008. So far this year, they jumped out early on Jacksonville, forcing the Jags to abandon the run, and also faced an Indianapolis team that has struggled to find any type of consistency with its ground attack.

So I don’t totally trust that #6 ranking.

I also know that some people are skittish about Slaton because of his slower-than-expected start to the year. But over his last two games, Slaton has carried the ball 33 times for 141 yards (4.27 average), caught five passes for 61 yards, and scored two TDs. His team has a very good offense and I expect this game to become a shootout, which should lead to plenty of scoring and yardage chances for Slaton.

Overall, I feel there is less risk in starting Slaton than anyone else. I would not be surprised to see him have fewer points than Harrison or Mendenhall, but Slaton is the more proven commodity. If you follow my fantasy advice, you have probably realized than when things appear to me to be close to equal, I always trust and start the guy with the more proven track record.

2 – Jerome Harrison — @ Buffalo (#27 vs run, 7 TDs allowed) — 73% owned

Surprised to see Jerome this high? Don’t be. He’s going to be a very good fantasy player for the rest of this year…which I seem to remember someone predicting before the season started…and is a solid start against a weak defense this week in particular.

What you saw from Jerome last week against Cincinnati (minus the 29 carries) is similar to what I think we’ll see for the majority of games this season even when Jamal Lewis returns to health: 17-22 carries, 4.0-5.0 yard average, 4-6 receptions, 125-150 total yards per game. Obviously Jerome needs to start getting into the end zone, but I think he can get 3-4 scores as the season goes along.

Remember, unlike Jamal Lewis, Harrison actually has big play ability.  Last year against these same Bills on Monday Night Football, Jerome touched the ball four times — FOUR F’ING TIMES!!! — yet produced 101 yards and a touchdown (with a 72-yard TD run included). You can’t predict such big plays, although Buffalo’s run defense has been sieve-like this season, but the point is that Harrison is capable of making them and this will keep him on the field all season for Cleveland.

Harrison is below Slaton because he’s less proven and on a much worse offense, but ahead of Mendenhall because no one is threatening Jerome’s carries right now and he has a more proven, consistent track record.

3 – Rashard Mendenhall — @ Detroit (#20 vs run, 4 TDs allowed) — 95% owned

The reigning AFC Player of the Week finally had his coming out party with 160+ yards and 2 TDs last week. He is all the rage in fantasy right now, and is the kind of player who could go from late round pick to 1st round value as the season moves along.

Still, I’m skeptical.

That’s why, despite last week and his plum matchup this week, I have Mendenhall rated third on this list. There is a reason why this guy was deactivated in Week 3 — deactivated folks — and has struggled to get consistent playing time. One great game against a very suspect defense is not enough to convince me.

He probably has the most upside of any back on this list this week, but also the most risk. Would you really be shocked if Mendenahll ended up with four or five carries and 15-20 yards and that’s it?  I wouldn’t.  But I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him explode again.

Lots of risk/reward here. If you’re desperate for a win and sitting at 1-3, play Mendenhall.  What have you got to lose? If your team is good and you have other solid options, think about playing them. The onus is on Mendenhall to prove that last week was not a fluke.  If he does it again, start gaining confidence.

4 – Knowshon Moreno — vs New England (11th vs run, 1 TD allowed) — 95% owned

I love Moreno and especially love him now that Correll Buckhalter is dinged up, which will obviously give Knowshon more carries. I am not, however, a big fan of his matchup this week. That is why I have Moreno below Mendenhall. I trust Moreno more (4.3+ yards per carry, at least 65 yards, for three straight weeks) but think the going could be a little tougher for Denver’s offense this week. 

I expect the Texans-Cardinals, Bills-Browns, and Steelers-Lions games to be higher scoring and more fantasy friendly than the Broncos-Patriots matchup, which could end up being a slugfest. I would still start Moreno with confidence this week as an RB#2, just below the three guys above him on this list.

5 – Glen Coffee — vs Atlanta (25th vs run, 2 TDs allowed) — 90% owned

A lot has been expected of Glen Coffee as Frank Gore’s replacement because of the 49ers commitment to the run, Coffee’s explosive preseason success, and some pretty nice matchups (Rams, Falcons). However, over the last two weeks, Coffee has yet to really establish himself. He has carried 49 times for 128 yards and has yet to score.

We know that the opportunities will be there for Coffee because Mike Singletary will run and run and run some more. We also know that Altanta will give up some yards. Still, I think you have to be cautious with Coffee at this point because his value right now is wrapped up in potential, with nary a solid fantasy week to point to in his track record.

I still like him, and will happily start him as a flex in a couple of leagues, but I would not think twice about sitting him if any of the above four players were my options.

And, by the way, when a lot of people were asking me “Slaton or Coffee?” last week, I nailed the answer to that one despite what looked like a nice matchup advantage for Coffee.

Always remember folks: trusting a player’s track record and making choices on a week-to-week basis based on what players have done as opposed to what they could do, usually results in more sound long-term decision making and a team that will be competitive week in, week out.

Sure, you’ll be wrong in isolated cases, but you will will end up being right far more often.

Remember to check out my fantasy football spot on JOCK 98.7 FM tomorrow around 10:30 am, as well as the first episode of the Fantasy Flash Podcast, hosted by yours truly (player below). And keep those questions coming. I love answering them, and it actually helps me research for posts ideas and my own teams!

Have a great Thursday everyone.

Jamal Lewis is doubtful to play today, which means that Jerome Harrison will again be the feature back for the Browns. Earlier this week, the Browns placed promising but thus far unproductive rookie James Davis on IR.

I’ve been high on Harrison ever since the preseason, and I’m walking the walk because I just picked up Harrison and am starting him in two fantasy leagues. With Derek Anderson playing QB and adding a deep threat to the Browns’ offensive “attack”, I think there will be some running room for Jerome Harrison.

By way of comparison, I am starting Jerome this week over both Ryan Grant (bad matchup against Minnesota) and Julius Jones (who never performs well on the road).

Especially if you are in a PPR league, I like Jerome Harrison this week.

First off, my apologies for the delay in posting this week’s Browns preview. I could blame it on a lack of time from the recent site redesign, or the fact that I’ve been a little under weather this week, or that there were other more interesting stories to write about; but, the real reason why I’m not writing and posting this until just a few hours before kickoff is that I’ve specifically wanted to avoid writing about today’s Browns-Ravens game.

Because, regardless, I am going to the Browns Backers with my parents to watch the game, and I have pretty much no hope whatsoever that the Browns have even a prayer to win today.

That lack of hope was made even more severe yesterday when it was announced that Jamal Lewis and Phil Dawson will not play in today’s game.

Quickly, here is the pertinent viewing info for this afternoon from the Week 3 TV schedule and point spreads guide:

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)

• Browns-Ravens Date: Sunday, September 27th
• Browns-Ravens Time: 1:00 ET
• Browns-Ravens TV Network: CBS
• Browns-Ravens Announcers: GUS JOHNSON and Steve Tasker (Yes!!! A reason to watch the Browns! Gus Johnson!)
• Browns-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -13.5
• Browns-Ravens Over-Under: 38.5

Here is the best way that I can illustrate my pessimism heading into today’s game: while surfing a few news headlines this morning on my iPhone, I stumbled across the following at FoxNews: “Horrified Zoo Goers Witness Deadly Bear Attack.” My immediate first thought — and I am not making this up — was how appropriate a similar headline will probably be later this afternoon: “Horrified Browns Backers Witness Deadly Raven Attack.”

Such is life in 2009 (as it was in 2008…and 2006…and 2005…and…) as a Browns fan.

(Side note: and remember, at least one Baltimore Raven, pictured left, has previously been involved in a deadly attack…)

Is a Browns win possible? Oh..sure it is, I suppose.

This is the NFL after all, where the phrase “any given Sunday” is a truly relevant cliche. These Ravens aren’t the 2007 Patriots or the 1972 Dolphins, and these Browns very likely (at least we hope) are not the 2008 Lions.

But after watching eight quarters of Browns football so far this season, and seeing the highlights of Baltimore’s well-oiled offensive machine, any Browns fan who truly believes Cleveland will win today is a quintessential example of a person with faith. Believing in the Browns’ chances to win at Baltimore truly would require believing without seeing.

So, here is the Browns-Ravens prediction that I’ve dreaded giving all week long: Baltimore will win, and they’ll win big, and I think they’ll cover.

Forgive me, but I just can’t shake the mental images of our putrid offense from the last two weeks. With Baltimore’s offense looking so strong, I think we have to hold them to 17 points or less to have even a prayer, and I just don’t see that happening.

However, there is hope.

What, there is?

Yes, and there is hope based soundly in historical precedent not only for this week but for the rest of the season.

This may admittedly be a wild stretch, but here goes:

Last year, the Miami Dolphins started of the season 0-2. In week 3 the Dolphins limped into Foxboro to face the New England Patriots and were a prohibitive underdog and expected to get pummeled. In that game, however, the Dolphins shocked the Patriots and the world by racking up 461 yards of Wildcat-powered offense en route to a 38-13 victory.

The Dolphins would thereafter proceed to win 10 of their next 14 games and make the playoffs…and it all started with a road win when no one gave them a chance.

Let’s see: 

• Team left for dead after only two weeks? Check.
• Tough Week 3 matchup against divisional opponent on the road? Check.
• No one, not even the most optimistic of fans, giving team a chance to win? Check.
• Putrid offense looking for a spark? Check.

That last one is the key to today’s game.

The Dolphins introduced the Wildcat offense in that Week 3 matchup, which totally caught the Patriots by surprise and proved to have staying power as a viable solution for moving the ball. The Dolphins, and many other NFL teams, are still running the Wildcat this season.

What do the Browns have in their arsenal that could have similar effect today?

I’m not exactly sure. 

Perhaps we will see Josh Cribbs line up more behind center in the Wildcat today?

Honestly, I’m not sure why this hasn’t happened more already. Cribbs can run and throw, and he has not made a smooth transition to wideout. Maybe the Browns should let Mike Furrey, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Brian Robiskie work opposite Braylon Edwards and find easier ways — a la the Wildcat — to get Cribbs the ball.

Hmm…or perhaps we will see the long-awaited coming out party of Jerome Harrison?

The Browns’ backup running back — he of the 5.7 yard per carry average for his career — will get an extended look today with Jamal Lewis out. Exciting but unproven rookie James Davis should also get a look. Maybe the fresh legs of these two runners can spark the Browns?

Or maybe, just maybe, Brady Quinn will quiet his naysayers can play like a first round pick today?

If I had to rank the above three scenarios in order of their probability of occurring:

1. Harrison, Davis spark Browns’ ground attack
2. Josh Cribbs sparks Browns’ offense with dual-threat Wildcat
3. God takes a break from his busy schedule to divinely intervene on the behalf of long-suffering Browns fans to orchestrate a stunning upset.
4. Brady Quinn plays like a first round pick and leads the Browns to victory.

I guess we’ll see. But barring some sort of crazy, flukish afternoon, one of those things will have to happen for the Browns’ offense to get in sync. The defense can play as well as it is capable of playing and it won’t mean squat if Cleveland can’t challenge Baltimore on the other side of the ball.

I sure hope it happens, and I sure hope that my prediction proves wrong. I shouldn’t already be bored with — and afraid of — these weekly Browns previews after only two weeks.

So let’s defy the odds and make it a game today boys. 

At the very least, please don’t force us all to shuffle out of the bar today feeling like we just witnessed a deadly bear attack.

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* – Ray Lewis photo credit: Stephanie Krell via Flickr

* – Derek Anderson getting sacked photo credit: Nick Wass / AP Photo via Dawgs by Nature

Of course, since I work in blogging and social media, “staying home from work” really just means doing exactly what I would be doing at the “office” from my living room table.

Such is life when your real office is a laptop.

I suppose I could have slept in a little longer than usual. No one would have really known. But I’m a morning person and do my best, most focused writing before lunch. I’ve just always been that way.

So rather than hit the snooze the button or sleep in until the last possible second, I get up as early as I think my body can handle and jump right into my day.

In this sense, you could say that I am not a sleeper.

But would you like to know a few guys who are sleepers? Yeah? Well good, because we’re about to discuss a few.

Note: remember how I do all of my weekly sleeper columns. Only players currently on 50% or less of Yahoo rosters are considered. I try my best to highlight players with solid matchups this particular week, but it doesn’t always work out perfectly. Regardless of how they do in Week 3, all of these players are guys I can see being valuable moving forward — unless otherwise specified —  especially once the bye weeks hit.

If you want to see how my sleeper works out last week, check out this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em post. As usual, I outlined the successes and failures of the previous week’s picks there. I was right on regarding Correll Buckhalter and the Washington D, but my other picks didn’t come through as well in Week 2. I still do think, however, that Shaun Hill, Vernon Davis, and Robert Meachem are solid guys to have on your bench.

Let’s get to it for Week 3.

Follow this link to StubHub for great deals on NFL tickets.

Week 3 Sleeper Picks

Week 3 QB Sleeper Pick: Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New York Giants)

Full disclosure: I do have ESPN on in the background and did catch Matthew Berry talking about Leftwich, but I swear I was going to write about him anyway. And honestly, Leftwich has sleeper written all over him:

• Currently owned in only 25% of Yahoo Leagues.
• On a team with a horrendous defense that gets behind early, meaning lots of pass attempts.
• 572 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs through two games, proving he can take advantage of deficits and passing opportunities.
• Myriad fantasy owners have been burned by Leftwich in the past and won’t touch him…meaning he’s still sitting out there despite being ranked #36 overall in Yahoo currently.
• Even Calvin Broadus agrees that Leftwich’s stock is on the rise.

This week Leftwich and the Bucs play the Giants, so it may not be the perfect matchup. New York has a great defense and harassed Tony Romo into three picks last Sunday. New York also likes to play ball control offensively, so they might not explode to a big lead that forces the Bucs to throw the entire second half.

That said, you could do worse than Leftwich if you’re heading into the bye weeks without a viable QB fill-in.

And make no mistake, that’s all Leftwich is: a fill-in. With consecutive games against the Giants, Redskins, Eagles, Panthers, Patriots, and Packers, Leftwich may see his numbers fall off somewhat. In fact, he probably will. Remember, he put up his big numbers against Buffalo and Dallas, neither of which has a great secondary.

But the promise for “quality” garbage-time TDs is there if you’re trolling for a backup QB.

Byron Leftwich Week 3 projection: 200 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other QB sleepers I like specifically for Week 3: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (vs Kansas City, 9% owned); Jake Delhomme, Carolina (at Dallas, 36% owned)

A quick note on Jake Delhomme: I know it sounds crazy, but he could be a sneaky good start this week. If you’re in a two-QB league, I think he’s a no-brainer. There is no way that Dallas’ secondary can cover Steve Smith, who has not found the end zone this season (he’s due!) and could be in for a huge game Monday night.

And remember this: Dallas has not forced a turnover all year, which is Delhomme’s Achilles’ heel. I understand if you’re still skittish about starting Delhomme in a single QB league — I would be too — just know that he may pop for two or three TDs on Monday night.

Week 3 RB Sleeper Pick: Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns (at Baltimore Ravens)

Damnit, I did it again.

I found a way to sneak a Cleveland Brown into my sleeper picks. 

In Week 1, my Brady Quinn pick worked out well as he got the garbage-time TD I predicted. In Week 2, Robert Royal disappeared. In Week 3, I think Jerome Harrison has intriguing value — especially in PPR leagues — and I think Harrison could be an interesting player from here on out.

Follow the link to read more about my thoughts on Harrison’s fantasy potential in 2009. This is not the first time I’ve touted him.

Currently, Harrison is owned in only 4% of leagues, so he’s definitely available. Let’s say you own Brian Westbrook and Marion Barber…you could be in need of a deeper sleeper as early as this week.

Here is why I think Jerome Harrison is an intriguing value for Week 3:

• In his first game last week, Harrison caught four passes for 24 yards.
• Cleveland’s offense blows, and swing passes to Harrison are one of the few reliable ways the Browns can get the ball into the hands of a play-maker. Expect his receptions to continue.
• Over the last few years in New York, Eric Mangini proved that he can utilize a back — Leon Washington —  with Harrison’s skills and size. 
• Until Harrison got hurt during the preseason, Mangini was singing his praises and vowing to do what all Browns fans wished the team would do last year: get Harrison the ball more.
• Baltimore has already proven itself to be susceptible to running backs catching passes out of the backfield. In Week 2, Darren Sproles ripped them for 7 catches, 124 yards, and a TD. In Week 1, Jamaal Charles caught 4 passes for 29 yards. The Ravens are going to stuff the Browns’ running game, there is almost no question. Throwing to the backs will inevitably become a big part of the gameplan.
• Jerome Harrison scored one of his TDs last season against Baltimore on a 19-yard reception. The brilliant Browns’ coaching staff of 2008 didn’t give him another touch in the game.

There are obviously a lot of backs I would not bench for Harrison. And the majority of rosters probably couldn’t handle taking a flyer on him, but keep your eye out. If you need someone at RB this week, I think Harrison could pay modest dividends. Cleveland will get blown out by Baltimore this weekend, but Harrison could get 5-6 catches and possibly even a TD.

And if anything happens to Jamal Lewis (who is, remember, in the dreaded 30+ RB category), Harrison will get more carries as well.

I may once again regret recommending a Brown, but Jerome is a guy I’ve been singing the praises of since last season. I’m sticking with him, no matter how deep of a sleeper he may be.

Jerome Harrison Week 3 projection: 3 rushes for 9 yards, 5 receptions for 38 yards, 1 TD

Other RB Sleepers I like specifically for Week 3: Mewelde Moore, Pittsburgh (at Cincinnati, 13% owned); Justin Forsett, Seattle (vs Chicago, 18%)

I also love Tashard Choice this week if Marion Barber does not play, but Fraschetti already covered Choice in his waiver wire post, so I didn’t want to take the easy way out.

Week 3 WR Sleeper Pick: Chansi Stuckey, New York Jets (vs Tennessee Titans)

Something tells me Chansi Stuckey might catch four passes this weekend against the Titans. Why do I think this? Well, perhaps because he has caught four passes in each of the Jets’ last four regular season games for 43, 50, 64, and 37 yards. 

Unlike the final two games of last year, however, when none of Stuckey’s eight catches got him into the end zone, he’s already reached pay dirt once in ‘09 (Week 1 at Houston) and barely missed catching a TD against New England in Week 2.

Stuckey is clearly the #2 wideout, is receiving red zone targets, and Mark Sanchez is not playing like a typical rookie QB. I see no reason why Stuckey cannot continue to catch 3-5 balls per game, for 45-75 yards, with the occasional TD. Those aren’t great numbers, but they are solid for a fill-in or a reliable flex play.

As for this week, the 27%-owned Stuckey gets to go up against Tennessee’s last-ranked pass defense. Temper your expectations because the Titans are not that bad and will no doubt play well in desperation mode this week, but Stuckey should still get his usual four receptions.

Chansi Stuckey Week 3 projection: 4 catches, 55 yards, .5 TD (i.e. who the hell knows and why predict it, but he’s getting red zone chances so it would not be a surprise)

Other WR sleepers I like specifically in Week 3: Isaac Bruce, San Francisco (at Minnesota, 47% owned); Brandon Stokley, Denver (at Oakland, 21% owned); Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (at Arizona, 14% owned); Bobby Wade, Kansas City (at Philadelphia, 9% owned)

Week 3 TE Sleeper Pick: No one

I have now being sitting here for ten minutes staring at the under-50% tight ends in Yahoo and can’t find anyone I want to recommend.

Vernon Davis is still the best of the bunch, but I’ve lauded him two weeks in a row with only 7 catches and 72 yards to show for it. I still like Davis long-term this season, but will wait for a little bit more proof on the field before continuing to fawn over his potential.

Anthony Fasano is intriguing because the Dolphins have targeted him a decent amount, but only 3 catches for 11 yards — and with some key drops — has understandably sullied his value and rep.

I like the two TEs in Green Bay — Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley — against St. Louis this week, but who do you start? 

And whoever starts at TE for Tennessee could get some opportunities, but it’s undecided right now because Bo Scaife is dinged up. Alge Crumpler would go if Scaife can’t, and they also have promising rookie Jared Cook as an option.

Instead of recommending anyone specifically, I’ll simply reiterate my support from this week’s start em, sit em column for Brent Celek.  He is proving to be a very reliable tight end and is an obvious favorite of Kevin Kolb. With Kolb starting again this week, grab Celek (60% owned) if you can.

Week 3 D/ST Sleeper Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

I know it sounds crazy to recommend the Bengals’ D against Pittsburgh, but my #1 choice is Denver and I already discussed them in the start ‘em, sit ‘em column. Consider this a bonus sleeper pick.

Pittsburgh has not proven it can run the ball, the game is in Cincinnati, and the Bengals are coming off of two impressive defensive performances. I think we are going to see a low-scoring slugfest on Sunday, with the Bengals having the potential to capitalize on suspect pass protection for Ben Roethlisberger, as well as the fact that the Steelers will probably be throwing a lot.

Lots of passing creates more opportunities for sacks, INTs, and passes broken up, which can all bring fantasy points depending on your scoring system.

I wouldn’t expect the same number of sacks that Cincy got last week as Big Ben is hard to bring down, but the Bengals should have a solid day Sunday and certainly are worthy of being owned in more than 6% of leagues.

Cincinnati Defense Week 3 projection: less than 20 points, 2 sacks, 1 INT

Other team defense sleepers I like specifically in Week 3: Denver Broncos (at Oakland, 37% owned)

And that concludes this week’s sleeper picks. Feel free to ask any questions down in the comment section and I’ll do my best to answer you as quickly as I’m able.

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* – Byron Leftwich and Snoop Dog photo credit: SnoopDog.com

* – Bengals D v Pittsburgh photo credit: Getty Images via Zimbio

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009’s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

• Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
• Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
• Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
• StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
• StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

• The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
• The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007’s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

• Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
• James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
• The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

• Brandon McDonald led the team with five
• Sean Jones had four
• Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
• Mike Adams had two
• Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

• Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
• Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
• Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

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* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Don’t.

Do.

It.

In the Plain-Dealer this morning, Mary Kay-Cabot wonders if the Browns will do just that, despite the fact they already paid him a $3.5 million bonus this offseason and that his only backups are the current injured Jerome Harrison and 6th round rookie James Davis, who has apparently become the next Jim Brown after one 81-yard scamper against the Detroit WinlessLions.

A quick excerpt:

Could Browns running back Jamal Lewis be cut today when the Browns trim their roster to 53?

NFL sources said rumblings began a couple of days ago that Lewis, who turned 30 last week, could be one of the dozen players the Browns let go, and ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter on Friday put Lewis at the top of his list of big-name players on the bubble. Nationalfootballpost.com’s Mike Lombardi also speculated Lewis will be cut.

Among the many reasons why I think this would be a terrible move:

1. It makes the $3.5 million already given to Lewis basically just a colossal waste of money.
2. Lewis has done a tremendous job of accepting that his role will likely be reduced this year and has taken to mentoring Davis, who went to the same high school as Lewis. For a rookie RB, this must be invaluable.
3. Jamal Lewis may be too old and slow to be a featured, wear-’em-down type back any more, but he can still churn out tough yards and get goalline carries. Have Jerome Harrison of James Davis proven they can do this?
4. As much as we all want to hope that the Browns can engineer a Dolphins- or Falcons-like turnaround in 2009, the fact of the matter is that the Browns are more likely than not building for the future. Unless there is something we don’t know about Lewis’ willingness to play the role of good soldier under the regime, there is no reason to cut him and prevent Jerome and James from having his experience and leadership at their disposal.
5. Jamal Lewis is one of the few leaders on this offense. With Brady Quinn, a first-year starter, likely to take over as the QB, why not give him the support of a veteran in the backfield who can allow Quinn to grow into his leadership role.

I could go on and on. Yes, the Browns would save some money cutting Lewis, but I think it would be a terribly myopic decision. Hopefully when the final cuts are announced, Lewis’ name will not be among them and we can put this foolish story behind us.

Chief among those reasons: they are, after all, the Cleveland Browns.

There is certainly a lot of Browns hate floating around as we approach the first week of the 2009 NFL season. Peter King of SI has predicted that Cleveland will finish with the league’s worst record, 2-14, and be a game worse than even the Detroit Lions. Take a a few minutes to sample the power rankings at sites like ESPN, FoxSports, and elsewhere. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that while the Browns are not quite the worst team in the NFL, they are not too far away.

So what the hell am I thinking trying to approach a Browns 2009 season preview with the goal of disproving the conventional wisdom? Am I totally off my rocker sitting down this morning in search of legitimate reasons for why Browns fans should have hope heading into 2009?

The answer to both questions is: I’m not sure.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Cleveland Browns tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

But here I am, and here you are, and damnit, at the end of the day this is the NFL we are talking about. If a Dolphins or Falcons or Ravens fan had set out to write a similar post before last season began, they would have been looked at as fools too. And we know how that turned out.

Consider the following:

• The Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens entered 2008 with new head coaches who had no head coaching experience. The Browns enter 2009 with a new head coach who actually has head coaching experience.
• The Dolphins and Falcons had been bad for a while. They were not a year removed from a 10-win season, as the Browns are.
• The Falcons and Ravens entered last year with first round rookie QBs starting. The Browns have one guy a year removed from making the Pro Bowl…who will likely be the backup. Brady Quinn, the Browns’ own first round, first-year probably starter at least enters this season with a couple of years of NFL experience under his belt.

Somehow, despite so many odds seeming to be stacked against them, the Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens all made the playoffs last year. Time and again in the NFL we see teams rise from the depths of low-to-no expectations to shock the football world by winning 9, 10, 11 games. 2007 in Cleveland was a prime example.

So no matter how bad you expect the Browns to be in 2009, remember that the Dolphins and Falcons were expected to be just as bad, if not worse, in 2008. And look where they ended up.

But simple, general, implied correlations such as what I’ve just done mean nothing. A Lions fan could say the same thing. So could a Raiders fan. It’s time to get specific. We all rationally understand, based on recent NFL history, that teams going from worst-to-first is not a freak phenomenon in the NFL.

For Browns fans — my long-suffering and frowning brethren who are desperately grasping for hope, for something legitimate to believe in heading into 2009 — what are some real and team-specific reasons why 2009 could be the season when we put the wait for next year on hold?

1 – Eric Mangini will see your 4-12 record, and raise you a playoff berth

Forgive the somewhat obtuse poker analogy, but this fact remains: Eric Mangini has already proven that he can immediately take a team from 4-12 (the Browns’ record in 2008) to the playoffs. He did it in 2006, his first year with the Jets, after New York had played to win the games in 2005 but did not win many under Herm Edwards.

Interestingly enough, the parallels to do not end there.

You may recall that in 2004, the year preceding the Jets’ 4-12 stumble and Edwards’ eventual ouster, the Jets went 10-6.  Similarly, as I know you will recall because I’ve already mentioned it, the Browns went 10-6 in 2007, the year prior to their 4-12 collapse in 2008 that led to the ouster of then-head coach Romeo Crennel.

So for Eric Mangini, this is already charted territory. The man has done it once, which should give Browns fans a legitimate reason to think that he can do it again.

(Note to all Browns fans: for the sake of our ever-diminishing sanity, let’s forget for the moment the fact that Mangini’s Jets yo-yo’d back to 4-12 in his second year, completing a four-year run of 10-6, 4-12, 10-6, 4-12 that we would obviously like to avoid.)

2 – Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley have nowhere to go but up

Let’s get one given about the 2009 Browns out of the way right now. We all know that this is a team still in need of more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thus, the playmakers that they do have absolutely must play up to their capabilities this season.

Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are, unquestionably, two of the five most talented players on the Browns roster (along with the consistently solid Joe Thomas, Josh Cribbs, and Shaun Rogers…at least he was last year). Both Braylon and Kamerion were awful in 2008, despite already having proven that they can succeed at the NFL level. These two must play much closer to their potential for the Browns to have success in 2009.

And there is every reason to believe that they will do so.

Braylon Edwards is the player that I correctly pegged as the key to the Browns season in 2008 after we watched him struggle in Week 1 against Dallas. Sadly, I was proven correct as Braylon’s awful season was symbolic of the entire team’s failure last year.

But this is still a guy who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft, who has shown that he can produce yards and TDs in big numbers, and who should be entering his prime at 26 years old.

In 2007, we probably saw Braylon’s ceiling. In 2008, we probably saw his floor. In 2009, we just need to see a very good receiver, which Braylon is perfectly capable of being. And if Braylon is only very good — putting on hold, for a moment, any expectation of him being great — he should produce 75-85 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards, and 8-9 TDs. These are not unreasonable numbers.

And think about it: if Braylon had just been good last year, as opposed to decidedly awful, the Browns probably win one or two more games.

Auspiciously, Braylon has appeared better and more focused this preseason (3 rec, 51 yards, TD in the Browns’ most recent preseason game) and should be more consistent if the Browns pick one QB and stick with him.

He can’t be worse than he was last year, and that alone will make the Browns better.

On the other side of the ball, Kamerion Wimbley is, like Braylon, a former first round pick with worlds of talent. He is also, like Braylon, prone to inconsistency and had his worst season as a pash rusher last year. After a great rookie season in which Wimbley got 11 sacks, he fell to only 4 last season.

So like Braylon, we have probably seen Kamerion’s floor. I’m not quite sure we have seen his ceiling yet, however; and the combo of Eric Mangini and new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may just be able to unleash it. The Jets and Raiders (where Ryan coached last season) were both in the top half of the NFL in sacks last year. Say what you will about the ability of Ryan’s Raiders to stop the run — they couldn’t — but they did a decent job of getting after the passer.

And he is, after all, a Ryan.

The Browns have Shaun Rogers and D’Qwell Jackson as the centerpieces of their quest to improve the run defense. And let’s be honest, it could improve and still not be very good. Kamerion Wimbley, on the other hand, is the centerpiece of the Browns’ pass rush, and there appear to be new strategies in play (such as moving him around more) to make him more effective.

Kamerion has too much talent to pick up only four sacks this year. If he can get back into double-digits, which he is perfectly capable of doing, the Browns’ defense will improve. An improvement by Kamerion alone won’t make the Browns defense great, and might not make it good, but it will at least make it better.

Assuming these two immensely talented players can play closer to their abilities than they did last season, it should make the Browns 2-3 games better. I suppose it’s fair to say that we should expect such improvement at our own risk, but it’s at least a reason for hope. 

Remember, we’re Browns fans. Hope is all we have.

3 – The pieces are in place for the Browns to be far more effective running the football

A lot of blame got heaped onto Derek, Brady, and Braylon for the Browns’ offensive struggles last season, and deservedly so; but the running game provided little in the way of backup. The Browns finished 26th in the league in rushing last year with a paltry 3.9 yards per carry. Unless you have a healthy Kurt Warner with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at receiver, that’s just not going to get it done.

Much was made of the Derek-to-Braylon and Derek-to-Kellen and Derek-to-Jurevicius combos that made the Browns’ 2007 offense so successful. But did you realize that the Browns also finished 10th in rushing that year and averaged 4.3 yards per carry?

With Brady Quinn likely to get the nod at QB, and two rookies plus a QB-turned-kick-returner-turned-wide-receiver likely to be among his top five targets on the outside, the Browns will have an inexperienced passing game in 2009 that will undoubtedly be a work in progress. Where we have the best combination of experience and talent is in the backfield.

And, as with the assumed improvement of Braylon and Kamerion, I think it’s safe to assume that the running game will be better in ‘09 — in large part because it cannot possibly be worse.

Jamal Lewis is a former freak-of-nature-type stud who could bowl over defenders and run by them at the same time. Now tumbling down the 30-and-over running back hill, Lewis lacks breakaway speed and can be painfully slow to the hole. What he can do, however, is churn out tough yards while wearing down defenders, block effectively, and provide much-needed leadership on an offense that is devoid of it.

I’ve heard whispers that the Browns should cut ties with Lewis because of his diminishing skills as a runner. That’s a myopic viewpoint. This will probably be his last year in Cleveland, but he will still be valuable, for the reasons mentioned above, even if his carries are reduced (which they should be) and he’s only a 3.8 yard per carry back.

Where my excitement and optimism about the Browns running game comes from is the presence and flashes of brilliance that we’ve seen from Jerome Harrison and James Davis. I’ve written at length about these two players and their potential for success in 2009 here and here, so I won’t repeat myself. Suffice it to say, as long as Eric Mangini and Brian Daboll make good on their promise to get these guys more involved, the Browns will be a better running football team in 2009.

Something else to keep in mind: while everyone focused on the Jets’ passing game and Brett Favre last season, they were surprisingly effective running the football. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington led a ground attack that finished 9th in the league in rushing.

And one more thing to keep in mind: Eric Mangini comes from the Bill Belichick school of coaching, where you focus on what players can do, as opposed to what they cannot do, and put them in positions to succeed and maximize their value to the team. One example that proves this is the Jets’ superb use of Leon Washington last year.

The previous Browns coaching staff always seemed hung up on what players could not do, as evidenced by their exasperating unwillingness to get Jerome Harrison consistent touches. The guy averaged more than 7 yards per carry! No one thinks he can keep that up with 100-125 carries, but he certainly is part of the solution to the Browns ground woes and I expect the new coaching staff to recognize this. 

[Editor's Note: As someone astutely pointed out to me after posting this, Romeo Crennel also came from the Belichick school of coaching.  And to that I say...he must not have listened very well. Hopefully Mangini was a better student.]

Time will tell how effectively Mangini and Daboll can direct the Browns offense, but the Jets’ success running last season plus the versatility of the Lewis-Harrison-Davis trio has me optimistic that we will be much better on the ground this year than we were last year. We sure as hell (broken record alert!) can’t be much worse. And that right there is another reason to hope for and expect improvement. 

Finally, here a few additional quick-hit reasons for Browns fans to have hope heading into 2009:

– Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are playmaking, ball-hawking cornerbacks who have flashed the potential for both greatness (the home Monday night win over the Giants) and for punishing lapses in focus (the devastating Broncos loss). As they gain experience and enter their prime, improvement should be inevitable. Add to this the fact that Eric Mangini is a secondary coach at heart and in experience, and I think we can safely assume that one position for which focus should be less of a problem this year is the defensive backfield.

– Josh Cribbs, whose contributions to the team’s 2007 success were never fully appreciated in my opinion, looks energized this preseason. Obviously something needs to be done with his contract, but if Cribbs can stay healthy and not fight nagging injuries like he did last year, he will make the Browns better on offense and special teams.

– The Browns’ schedule, in theory, should be more palatable than last year’s. While the NFC North looks to be much improved this year, the AFC West has only one good team. And if Baltimore continues its trend of being good one year and then bad the next, it could provide two in-division opportunities for victories that were not there last year.

Just a quick glance at the schedule reveals the following eight games that are very winnable: at Denver, vs Cincinnati, at Buffalo, at Detroit, at Cincinnati, and the last three games of the year: at Kansas City, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville. If the Browns are indeed a better football team in 2009, and can find a way to just go 6-2 or 5-3 in these eight games, a 7-9 or 8-8 or *gasp* even better record is possible.

And those final three games, against teams that no one is pegging as playoff-caliber heading into the year, could prove valuable if the Browns somehow are in contention for a playoff spot.

So, in conclusion, Peter King can take his 2-14 prediction and shove it.

I like Peter King and read his Monday Morning Quarterback column religiously, and after last season’s debacle I suppose anything is possible. When your team is picked to compete in the AFC, you get five prime-time games, and then you fall flat on your face, it’s hard to really argue when an outsider shows a lack of faith.

But there are reasons for hope in Cleveland that many prognosticators, and even many fans, are not recognizing. Similarly, there were reasons for caution heading into last year that many prognosticators, and certainly many fans, turned a blind eye towards. The unexpected happened in 2007 and the unexpected happened in 2008, so who’s to say the unexpected won’t happen in 2009?

I realize that I may be setting myself up for another season of disappointment and heartache, but I’m beginning to get excited and optimistic about the 2009 Browns. I honestly have no idea if we will be better or if we will be worse, and the truth is that nobody does. This is the National Football League aka Not For Long aka No F’ing Logic, a league where the unexpected has ironically become the expected.

Eric Mangini has already proven that he can defy conventional wisdom and expectations in his first year with a new team, and the Browns have certainly proven they can defy conventional wisdom and expectations with their performance the last two years. But, alas, this is the Browns we are talking about, a team notorious for its consistent ability to suck the hope and optimism out of its fans by a seasons’ end.

So call it a coping mechanism, call it foolhardy positivity, or even just call it crazy. Either way, while the fresh-cut-grass smell is still emanating from another NFL season set to begin, with every team sitting there even at 0-0, I will once more jump on the bandwagon of optimistic hope and believe that the unexpected can indeed occur in Cleveland.

We’ll see. 

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* – Cleveland Browns helmet logo credit: Wikipedia

* – Eric Mangini photo credit: New York Post

* – Braylon Edwards photo credit: The Repository (Canton, OH) via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

* – Kamerion Wimbley photo credit: AP via DayLife

And remember, if you are a Cleveland Browns fan, there is no greater Cleveland Browns resource online than the Orange & Brown Report. So click over there and register for premium access. The best part: you get a 7-day free trial to realize how kick ass it is. We know that with Eric Mangini in charge, information will be hard to come by. No one will have more than these guys.

If you don’t want to do the premium access right now, at the very least follow the OBR on Twitter for the latest Browns news as it happens.

Also, follow these links to StubHub for great deals on 2009 Browns tickets or tickets to all NFL games.

Okay, I’ve shilled enough (but I do mean it, these guys are great). Onto the Q&A:

Q: I heard Gil Brandt on Sirius say that the reason the Browns have not announced their QB yet is because they are trying to trade Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson and do not want to hurt the trade value for either. Is there any truth to this, based on what you know? And how do you see the QB situation shaking out?

Barry McBride: Gil Brandt is obviously a great football mind and still well-connected in NFL circles. This isn’t a new thought, however. It’s something we’ve discussed on the OBR ever since Eric Mangini announced that there would be a quarterback competition back in March during the scouting combines.

At the time, there was a lot of speculation that the Browns would deal either Quinn or Anderson for draft picks, and it made no sense to reduce the trade value of either by declaring one of them to be the team’s backup. It’s certainly possible that one or the other will still be dealt, and that this is why Mangini is waiting, although there isn’t anything visibly percolating at the moment.

Another way to look at it is that neither quarterback has stepped up and grabbed the job by the throat. The Browns hoped that either Quinn or DA would make it a non-issue by their performance this Summer, but both quarterbacks continue to demonstrate their respective strengths and weaknesses as expected. Neither has really stepped their game up to the point where the job was clearly won, although Quinn still seems to have the edge.

One other thing to keep in mind is that Eric Mangini’s penchant for secrecy dates back to his time as a defensive coordinator working for Bill Belichick. He has said that one of the toughest things for him to overcome as a defensive coordinator is not knowing which quarterback he will be facing in the coming weeks. He may simply be holding off declaring a winner to make it harder for the Vikings to plan for the season opener.

Q: One of my thoughts regarding DA and Brady is that while Brady should, theoretically, be less prone to the boneheaded mistakes we’ve become accustomed to with Derek, having Derek as the starter would be better for Braylon. And with the Browns devoid of proven playmakers on offense, putting Braylon in the best position to succeed may be the best move for us offensively. Do you agree?

Barry McBride: I like how you’re thinking, but I’m not sure I’m fully on board.

The first thought that springs to mind is that the biggest challenge to Braylon Edwards’ success since 2007 has typically been Braylon himself. While undeniably talented, Edwards seems to suffer from lapses in focus that aren’t dependent on who is quarterbacking. He has memorable dropped touchdown passes that have been delivered to him from both Quinn and Anderson in the past, as recently as the first preseason game against the Packers when Quinn hit him in the back of the end zone.

If anything, Quinn’s softer touch with the football might help Edwards hold onto the ball somewhat, although Anderson’s ability to stretch the field obviously makes Edwards a threat on every play, as does Anderson’s sometimes stubborn desire to focus on getting the ball to him even when dealing with double or triple-coverage.

One other factor that suggests that Quinn might ultimately help Edwards is that it’s critical for the Browns to have credible #2 and #3 receiving threats, and a credible threat of runners catching passes out of the backfield as well. Anderson has a tendency to continually attempt to feed the ball to Edwards (and Winslow in past years), and Quinn’s tendency to go through his progressions quickly might force opponents to take the Browns’ other receivers far more seriously and help reduce the amount of attention that Edwards gets from opponents.

I suspect that we’ll ultimately really only know how Edwards would fare under a full season with Quinn at QB is to give that option a chance, and see how he does.

(As I am posting this, Phil Dawson just kicked a field goal. Browns close the gap to 7-3.)

Q: As a fan who is 1,000 miles away from the action, I can only look at stats and quotes in the paper to make a judgment. With QBs though, leadership, intangibles, huddle command, etc., are so important. Between Derek and Brady, who seems to have more respect from their teammates? Who “commands” the team better? Or have they not separated themselves in this regard either?

Barry McBride: I would give the edge here to Quinn as well, based on what I’ve heard through OBR reporters like Lane Adkins and Fred Greetham.

With some strong personalities on the Browns (as with every team), it’s critical that there not be a question about who is in charge in the huddle. As we’ve been told by players themselves, there’s no question when Quinn is on the field that he’s running the show. Although it’s never been said outright by his teammates, by extension, one can infer that Anderson may be somewhat less of a take-charge guy. I have to add, however, that Lane Adkins has relayed this year that Anderson’s approach in that department has taken a step up. He has a little more of a swagger about him than in past years.

Full disclosure: Someone reading the last two answers may conclude that I’ve got my mind made up about who I think would serve the Browns better in the long run. To that, I have to say, “guilty as charged”.

I was an advocate of drafting Quinn, have advocated giving him opportunities faster, and have been skeptical about Anderson ever since we got our first prolonged exposure to him during 2007 training camp. He’s clearly got tremendous athletic ability and potential that makes offensive coordinators salivate, but I admit that I still see the same quarterback from Oregon State highlight films: rocket arm, sprays the ball all over the field, and has a very high dependence on getting good protection and having receivers who will out-muscle defenders for the ball. That all came together to support him in 2007, and he was a Pro Bowler. It didn’t happen in 2008, and I don’t see it happening in 2009, either. On a team that has those attributes around him, Anderson could be very successful, but the Browns just aren’t there.

Q: Okay, well that about wraps things up. Wait…oh…there are 21 other starting positions on the Browns this year? Who knew?

What is the status of the contract talks with Josh Cribbs? When I watched the Detroit preseason game, it reminded me that we do, in fact, have a gamebreaker other than Dropsie Edwards. To me, especially with his improvement as a WR, Cribbs’ contract demands are not in any way outlandish. Are Mangini and Kokinis just playing a cat-and-mouse game with Cribbs and planning to sign him, or do you think they just are not convinced yet that he is worth more than he is making?

Barry McBride: Cribbs has agreed to come in, practice, and play despite lack of visible progress being made on his contract. Obviously, he’s a key component of the Browns special teams, but the team itself claims to be mystified as to how to price a return man (and obviously is not wanting to give Cribbs the same money that the Bears laid out for Devin Hester). The Browns are also, like most NFL teams, reluctant to tear up a contract with two years left. Although it should be noted that this reluctance rarely is in evidence when players are under-performing rather than out-performing their deals.

As luck would have it, the preseason has given Cribbs a chance to make a serious push for the #2 WR role which, if he wins it, bails both him and the team out by providing some more guidance about where Cribbs’ price should be, as well as a stronger rationalization for doing so. The Cribbs saga has yet to play out, but has already been marked by some of the worst mainstream media reporting I’ve ever seen, as both local and national media elements carve headlines out of virtually nothing more than having their previous assumptions about Cribbs’ intentions proven wrong.

Q: There have been rumblings recently that James Davis could start sneaking his way into more first team action. How patient will Mangini be with Jamal Lewis if Jamal continues to be slow to the hole and sports a 3.5-3.8 yard per carry average? And how does Jerome Harrison fit into this equation? Mangini seemed committed to getting Harrison the ball based on comments from early training camp, but Davis appears to have passed him over the last week. When will Jerome get back on the field and how do you see the attempts being split up between he and the rook?

Barry McBride: I don’t see Davis and Harrison as being much in conflict since they’re different types of backs. Harrison, although he gets more yards after contact than I would have expected, still primarily fits the mold of an NFL third-down back, whereas Davis is more of a between-the-tackles runner, like Jamal Lewis. I see Davis as spelling Lewis, with Harrison appearing more in third down situations. What Davis’ emergence means to Harrison is that he’s less likely to get opportunities to serve as an every down back, although I considered that to be somewhat questionable in any event.

If the interior of the Browns offensive line can’t hold holes open for longer than they have in the preseason, Lewis’ opportunities will go down, since Davis is quicker to the hole. This won’t make Lewis happy, as he still seems to firmly believe he’s most effective with 20-25 carries per game. While statistics bear that out for his career as a whole, it’s a dubious notion at this point.

Q: Real quick before we move to defense, what can Browns fans expect from the offensive line this year? Obviously Joe Thomas is an anchor on the left side, but will this year’s line be closer in performance to the 2007 unit or last year’s sieve?

Barry McBride: I wouldn’t expect 2007-level performance, simply because I don’t believe that Pork Chop Womack can perform at the same level that Ryan Tucker did during that year. We found out in 2008 how critical Tucker was to that unit and to helping out the undersized Hank Fraley and new right tackle Kevin Shaffer. It’s no coincidence, in my view, that the team’s best performance last year came in the one game where Tucker appeared. He has been on and off the practice field all preseason, and I don’t anticipate that he’ll be able to help take the right side of the Browns line up to the next level. Womack and John St. Clair have been steady and professional, although St. Clair has shown in the preseason a tendency towards ill-timed penalties.

Alex Mack has a very good shot of displacing Hank Fraley at center, but we’ve already seen him dealing with the rough NFL learning curve. In the AFC North, he’ll have to contend with some of the best nose tackles in the league. Expect mistakes to be made as Mack adjusts to the NFL.

Q: Braylon Edwards is the only “sure thing” in the receiving corps (except when wide open passes come his way, of course). How have the rookies looked? And is Mike Furrey (only a few years removed from a really good season in Detroit) an under-the-radar acquisition to could have 50-, 60-catch impact and play a QB-friendly role like what Joe Jurevicius was in ‘07?

Barry McBride: Furrey looks like a very good third receiver so far, which the team has missed ever since Dennis Northcutt went on his way. It’s doubtful that he could equate to what Jurevicius did (since Furrey will be out of the slot, and JJ was a #2 WR, in any event). It looks like he might be a smart fantasy football pickup late in the draft based on his performance so far in the preseason. He will probably get 30-40 catches from what I’ve seen so far.

Brian Robiskie has been a little bit disappointing since being hyped as a pro-ready NFL receiver, but such hype rarely proves true. Both he and Massaqoui are dealing with the usual struggles you see receivers suffer in their rookie season. At this point, Massaquoi may be higher on the depth chart based on his performance to date. He has looked very solid both in practice and games and should be in line for some playing time as the season begins.

Q: We know that everything defensively revolves around Shaun Rogers, with D’Qwell Jackson providing steady performance at LB, but it seems to me that for the Browns to to improve defensively, two things need to happen: Kamerion Wimbley needs to get to 11-12 sacks and fulfill the potential he showed as a rookie, and the Eric Wright-Brandon McDonald combo needs to become more consistent. Do you agree? And is there anything inherent in the new system/coaching staff that should help these players improve this seson?

Barry McBride: The Browns really needed to improve their game up the middle, and adding Eric Barton alongside D’Qwell Jackson seems to be a terrific move so far. Rod Hood has given Brandon McDonald a little push, but the team’s early scouting of corners for next year’s college draft convinces me that neither may be seen as the long-term answer there. A bigger question at this point is at safety, where the team has little depth behind starter Brodney Pool, whose ability to play is in question following last week’s game. Pool has a concussion history and the team has not revealed why he appeared to woozily walk off the field. If Pool is not available, the Browns defense will suffer.

Wimbley has a chance to perform better this year for a couple of reasons. The first is that the team has improved their consistency and depth in the defensive line, with C.J. Mosely providing a solid addition, and Wimbley needs that in order to have a lane to the quarterback. Secondly, the coaching staff has shown much more enthusiasm for moving Wimbley around from right to left, which is something Romeo Crennel rarely did. By making Wimbley’s position on the field less predictable, he has the possibility for greater success. It will ultimately be up to him to take advantage of his role in this defense.

Q: The NFL is notorious for having teams go from worst-to-first. In the AFC North, Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champ, Cincinnati is starting to become a popular darkhorse candidate for improvement with Carson Palmer back, and though they seem to be terrible every other season and lost Rex Ryan, Baltimore is still Baltimore. Put on your optimists hat (if you can): why is not an outlandish idea for Browns fans to dream of an AFC North title? (Or is there simply no reason to do so?)

Barry McBride: It’s always possible, as long as meteors and comets are around that could possibly smash into Pittsburgh or Baltimore while their respective teams are practicing. Or, better yet, when the two face off in the same stadium.

Outside of that, it’s going to be a rough road for a Browns team that still needs to show that it can get consistent performance on offense and stop the run effectively on defense. Three possibly optimistic signs: (1) This team did go 10-6 just a couple of years ago, so there’s more talent than is obvious from last year’s 4-12 record; (2) Barring the loss of Pool. they could always get lucky with injuries, which is always the great unknown going into every season; and, (3) Mangini did manage to turn the Jets around during his first year as head coach.

An 8-8 season is not totally unreasonable, but I still believe that the team has a significant uphill battle ahead of them. They face six tough games within the division, and will have to have a large number of things go right for them in order to make noise in the AFC North.

Thanks for the great questions!!

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[Editor's Note: And we thank Barry McBride for taking the time to answer our questions.  Now that you've enjoyed the Q&A, hop on over to the OBR and sign up!]

* – Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson photo credit: Getty via FanNation

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One of the most interesting stories to come out of Cleveland Browns training camp this year has been the unexpected emergence of 6th round draft pick James Davis as a potentially integral part of the Browns’ 2009 offense.

With Jamal Lewis seeming to be firmly entrenched as the starter despite his advancing age, and Eric Mangini pledging early in camp to get more touches for Jerome Harrison, it appeared that Davis would provide nice depth and a body on special teams, but little else.

Then he ran 80+ yards for a TD against Detroit’s backups and seemingly overnight there was chatter that he could end up as the starter.

Yesterday, Patrick McManamon of the Akron Beacon-Journal posed the question “Do the Browns have a running back controvery?” His answer was a resounding…maybe.

The Browns could have a couple of very interesting decisions in the near future.

One is at quarterback. Which we all pretty much know about.

The other, though, is at running back where rookie James Davis might be making a push to unseat Jamal Lewis.

Far-fetched? Perhaps.

But a certain team that makes its living running the ball extremely well in the shade of the Rocky Mountains has had great success with late-round running backs.

I am sure that all Browns fans are excited about the potential that James Davis has flashed. And Eric Mangini has spoken glowingly of his rookie, which I thought was a little unexpected but certainly nice to hear. Still, there are some reasons for caution, and no one should be writing Jamal Lewis’ Browns epitaph just yet.

First off, many a running back has had a strong preseason, especially playing in the later quarters, and not seen it translate to the regular season. We need to see James Davis succeed against other teams’ first team defenses before we book his ticket for the Pro Bowl. Remove the 81-yard run from his impressive line against the Lions (12 carries, 116 yards, TD) and Davis’ stats look far more pedestrian: 11 carries, 35 yards. 

True, the ability to take carries to the house from long distances is a desirable trait for a running back to have, and certainly something that Jamal Lewis now lacks, but Davis’ 81-yard scamper may have been more of an anomaly than something we will see regularly. According to his pre-draft Scouts Inc. profile, Davis’ straight-line speed is above average but not elite. While Scouts Inc is by no means the gospel, it is further reason to at least temper expectations that Davis will be regularly running up and down the field in the regular season.

Additionally, there is an important part of the running back role that many fans (myself included) forget about sometimes in our zeal to see a young guy or backup get on the field: pass blocking. Once again, looking at his Scouts Inc profile, Davis is criticized for not being great in this area:

Has shown the ability to catch the ball when facing the QB and is a solid underneath dump-off option. However, he lacks ideal experience catching the ball, he struggles to adjust to ball thrown outside of his frame and he is not a homerun threat after the catch. Shows adequate awareness in pass protection and flashes the ability to hold ground against blitzing defenders. However, he’s not very physical at the point of attack and doesn’t work as hard as he should to sustain.

This jives with reports I’ve seen and heard from people who have attended Browns training camp. Everyone has lauded James Davis for being extremely impressive as a runner, but are concerned that his blocking is not quite up to snuff. Certainly opponents will attempt take advantage of this with blitzes, which could leave Davis as the last line of defense to protect whoever is playing QB (at least we have two!).

Thus, especially early in the season, Davis being on the field could very well be a tip-off to the defense that we plan to run the ball or throw a quick pass. This would conceivably add more defenders to the box and potentially limit Davis’ effectiveness and the offense overall. 

Now that I have said all of this, and highlighted what I see as the glaring questions/weaknesses surrounding James Davis, let me also say this: for the Browns to have a successful season, James Davis will have to be a major part of it. We saw how poorly the Browns’ offense played last year, and how much it was hamstrung by a lack of play-makers. the Browns will need the spring that Davis appears to have in his step to put a more dynamic unit on the field in ‘09.

At one time, Jamal Lewis was an explosive runner with the ability to maul people and run away from them. Those days, however, are long gone. While Lewis still runs hard and is a solid short-yardage back, he is slow to the hole and lacks any semblance of breakaway speed. He can churn out 4-5 yard carries on a good day, but rarely is going to move the chains if the distance to the marker is outside of that amount.

Having James Davis, a young running back with fresh legs and some burst, can be an excellent complement to the bruising Lewis. Sprinkle in Jerome Harrison – whose production with limited opportunities should not be forgotten - as a runner and receiver, and the Browns have the makings of a solid running back trio that can keep eachother fresh and offer varying looks to defenses.

James Davis may very well prove to be the every down back of the future for the Browns; and what a steal that would be, getting him in the 6th round. For 2009, however, the Browns and their fans will most likely be best served by Davis playing a role in which he gets 10-15 carries, Lewis gets a similar number, and Jerome Harrison gets 8-10 touches (carries and catches).

So rather than a controversy, let’s call it a committee. The Giants rode “Earth, Wind, and Fire” (Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward) all the way to a Super Bowl and then to another solid season last year. With more and more teams moving to 2-3 back committees to provide different looks and keep legs fresh throughout the year, it may (and probably should) be something that the Browns look to do as well. 

Next season, with Lewis likely gone and a full year to evaluate Davis, we can start discussing who “the starter” is. For this year, let’s enjoy the addition of what looks like another solid backfield option and hope that James Davis is what he appears that he may be: a solid building block for the future of the Eric Mangini era in Cleveland.

Bonus James Davis fantasy projection: As stated, it certainly looks more and more like James Davis will become an integral part of the Browns running game. And we’ve all seen enough rookie running backs produce to know that you shouldn’t avoid them like you do rookie receivers. A talented running back behind a decent O-line can usually come in and have success right away. 

With Lewis and Harrison in the mix as well, however, I would not expect anything close to what Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson did last year (barring injuries to Lewis and/or Harrison). Still, James Davis is worth drafting in the later rounds and should at least have some value as a bye week fill-in. I look for him to get 125-150 carries on the season and between 550-675 yards with 3 or 4 scores. 

Obviously if he starts getting 15-20 carries a game, he becomes a possible #3/flex starter or even a #2 depending on the matchup. But I would draft him hoping for that kind of production, not expecting it.

**********

The Hot Button is sponsored by American Button Machines, the premier online source for button machine and button press enthusiasts, including supplies for fabric buttons, photo buttons, pinback buttons, as well as badge reels. They also sell a variety of circle cutters and will teach you how to make a button at their website or on their button making blog.

* – James Davis photo credit: Scott Shaw / Plain-Dealer via Cleveland.com

1. Damnit!
2. Catch the ball Braylon!
3. Son of a bitch!
4. Man I hate the Steelers.
5. Get the ball to Jerome Harrison!

I’m sure there were others, but those are the first five that pop into my head; and it is the last of those five that I am going to deal with this morning, because it could have a decidedly positive impact on your fantasy football teams this year.

Last season, the Browns were expected to have a dynamic offense after what seemed like a breakout 2007 season. Unfortunately, 2007 began to look more and more like an anomaly — the function of a weak schedule and low expectations — with each passing week.  Sure, injuries played some part it. Mostly though, the Browns simply shot themselves in the foot time after time with dropped passes, poor execution, unimaginative play calling, and an overall dearth of offensive leadership.

But there was one bright spot: Jerome Harrison, the diminutive running back who got very few carries, but always seemed to do something productive with the ball when he got it.

Jerome Harrison comes into the 2009 season as a three-year veteran, having been drafted in the 5th round of the 2006 draft out of Washington State. If you just glance at his career totals, you will likely be underwhelmed:

• 77 carries
• 448 yards
• 1 rushing TD
• 23 catches
• 182 receiving yards
• 1 receiving TD

A couple of years ago, that would have been a decent three-week stretch for LaDainian Tomlinson. 

If you break the numbers down a little further, however, you begin to see that Harrison’s overall lack of production is not necessarily his fault. A player can only do so much with the chances he is given, and Harrison has only had 100 touches in his NFL career. With a 5.8 career yard per carry average (7.2 in 2008) and a 7.9 yard per reception average, Harrison has at least made the most of his chances.

And what makes Jerome Harrison a sleeper pick for 2009 is that, barring injury, his touches will undoubtedly increase.

Pat Kirwan’s Sirius NFL Radio show was at Browns training camp yesterday and I was able to catch a portion of it during my drive home. They interviewed Jamal Lewis and Eric Mangini, both of him talked about Harrison as a key part of the plans for 2009. Lewis went so far as to say what all Browns fans were saying last year: namely, that Harrison was underutilized by the previous coaching staff. Mangini spoke glowingly of Harrison’s work ethic, talent, and aptitude in picking up the new offense.

What remains to be seen is whether these positive training camp reports actually translate into additional touches for Harrison. Last year, we heard the Browns coaches speak on more than one occasion about getting Harrison more involved. Then Sunday would roll around and Harrison would carry the ball 4 times for 25 yards in the first half and never see it again. Honestly, it was mind-boggling. 

There are a couple of reasons why I think Lewis and Mangini were doing more than just paying lip service to an increased role for Harrison:

Jamal Lewis isn’t getting any younger

Jamal Lewis will be 30 years old on opening day, and there are few cliches used more often in fantasy football and real football circles than the notion that running backs fall of a cliff once they reach the age of 30. Of course, the reason it is so often uttered is that the statistical evidence, for the most part, backs it up.

After a solid 2007 season in which he gained 1,304 yards on 298 carries, Lewis regressed last season to 1,002 yards. Part of the reason was that he did not get as many 4th quarter carries with the Browns often finding themselves behind in games. Another part of the reason for his decline was an almost full yard drop his average per carry.

If the Browns can throw the ball more effectively this year to open up the running lanes, and not be playing catch up in so many games, Lewis could bounce back to have a better season. However, with 2,399 career carries there is only so much tread left on the tires. If the Browns want their workhorse to be fresh late in the season and in the 4th quarter when they need to nurse a lead, they will have to manage his workload throughout the year and during games.

Enter Jerome Harrison.

I highly doubt that we will see a repeat of the almost 10:1 split in carries between Lewis and Harrison. More than likely, it will be somewhere in the 7:3 range, with rookie James Davis perhaps picking up a few here and there as well. Either way, the age of Jamal Lewis will compel the Browns coaching staff to throw a few carries elsewhere, and Harrison is the next in line to grab them.

Eric Mangini knows how to get the most out of quicker, undersized backs

Over Eric Mangini’s last two seasons in New York, his Jets teams featured a two-headed running back attack led by feature back Thomas Jones and his understudy/kick returner extraordinaire Leon Washington. In 2007, when he was 29, Thomas Jones carried the ball 310 times with Washington picking up 71 carries. In 2008, when he was 30, Thomas Jones’ workload was slightly reduced to 290 carries, with Washington grabbing 76 of his own. Where Leon Washington made an additional dent was in the passing game, catching 36 balls for 213 yards in 2007 and 47 balls for 355 yards in 2008.

What does this mean for Jerome Harrison?

Well let’s say that the Browns employ a similar split in touches between Lewis and Harrison as Mangini’s Jets teams did with Jones and Washington, using Harrison’s career averages per touch as our guide.

• 74 carries at 5.8 yards per carry = 429 yards
• 42 receptions at 7.9 yards per reception = 331.8

Considering that Harrison scored 1 TD in his 34 carries last year, along with 1 TD in 12 receptions, extrapolated out over the touches listed above we could optimistically pencil Harrison in for 5-6 TDs.

Now, is around 750 total yards and 5-6 TDs going to make Jerome Harrison as fantasy stud? Not at all. And with more touches, he likely won’t be able to maintain a 5.8 yard per carry average. However, I think there is a good chance that Jerome Harrison could see more than 74 carries this year, and that he could still be in the 4.8-5.2 yard per carry neighborhood. And obviously if Jamal Lewis goes down with any type of injury, Harrison’s workload will only increase.

And I definitely believe that he will eclipse ESPN.com’s projection of 459 total yards.

Jerome Harrison has always produced when given the opportunity

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5′9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16. 

Yes, Harrison is slighter of frame than most backs, but did you know that he is actually the same height and almost 10 pounds heavier than Emmitt Smith was during his playing days? This is not to say that Harrison is anywhere in the class of Smith — obviously — but Harrison should not just be dismissed off-hand as a guy without the ability to carry the load for the Browns.  Smaller, quicker backs like Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Darren Sproles have proven as recently as last year that even though NFL defensive players get bigger by the season, smaller running backs with quickness and productive pedigrees can find significant success in the right situation.

It is good to have two backs in today’s NFL, and I think the Browns can have one of the more underrated backfields in the NFL in Lewis and Harrison if the offense rebounds to become a respectable unit in 2009. But if Lewis ever were to go down, I would feel comfortable that Jerome Harrison could produce with 15-20 carries per game and that he could be a solid #2 RB or weekly flex starter.

As it says above, he’s always produced when given the opportunity. 

With that said, I can’t help but think that when Mangini and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll look at the tape of last year’s team they are going to realize that only one player on offense consistently made plays when he touched the ball. That player was Jerome Harrison, and it sure would have been nice if the previous regime had realized it; or, if they did realize it, if they’d actually been proactive in getting him more touches throughout the season.

With the success that teams like Tennessee and Miami had last year splitting time between two backs, I actually think that Harrison could and will get more touches than what is projected above. I would not be at all surprised to see him get 100-125 touches, approach 1,000 total yards, and find the end zone 6-7 times. Jamal Lewis will no doubt get the bulk of the goalline touches and TDs, but Harrison’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss in space will make him a valuable commodity inside the red zone on screen and swing passes.  If he can find the end zone on a few of those passes, 6-7 TDs is not an outlandish projection in my estimation. 

You don’t want to leave your draft with Harrison slotted to be a starter. However, once the bye weeks roll around, he will have some value as a capable flex option who will get touches and have the potential to get you double-digit fantasy points in any given week. And if you’re in a PPR league, Harrison’s ability to grab 2-3 catches per game at least ensures that you won’t come up empty at a spot  in the worst case scenario.

So the question is where should you target Jerome Harrison in your drafts. Clearly, he is not a guy you want to even think about in the first half of a draft, nor do you need to.  Harrison is not in Yahoo!’s Top 40 running backs for 2009 and doesn’t show up until #76 in ESPN’s running back rankings. His value obviously increases somewhat in a point-per-reception league, where he shows up at #192 overall in the ESPN PPR rankings.

Here is the guide I will be using when it comes to Jerome Harrison, and obviously specific rounds will depend on the number of teams in your league and how your league doles out points. (And, since I am in leagues that have other Browns fans, I may have to jump on Jerome a round or two earlier than normal.)

• If I draft Jamal Lewis somewhere in rounds 5 or 6, I am definitely grabbing Harrison by round 14 as an essential handcuff.
• If I am in a PPR league, I am targeting Harrison somewhere in the 13-15 range, depending on the other RBs and WRs available.
• In a non-PPR league in which I do not need Harrison as a handcuff, I will try to grab him in the last couple of rounds, earlier if there has been a run on second-tier, non-starting running backs already.

Remember that fantasy football championships are won many times by the guys you draft in the later rounds that far exceed their expected or projected value.  The later rounds are a great place to take chances on players who are one injury away from putting up big numbers, especially when the guy in front of them is a 30+ running back.

Last year, for example, I rode mid- and late-round draft picks Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton to a fantasy title. While Jerome Harrison is not going to approach the production of either of those two guys, he does have the potential to give you 9th or 10th round value with his current role in the later rounds of the draft. If he gets the chance to start at any point this season, he could potentially offer 3rd or 4th round value.

Stack a few of those guys together, along with a solid performance at the top of the draft, and you have the makings of a team with depth that can withstand the inevitable injuries you’ll endure, which will allow you to be competitive on a week-in, week-out basis.

(Update: This post was originally written before the Browns lost to the Colts 10-6. During that game, Derek Anderson went out with what looks a pretty serious knee injury. Unfortunately, the rest of Derek Anderson’s 2008 season appears to be in jeopardy, meaning that Ken Dorsey will likely be playing QB for the Browns for the rest of the season. Unless, of course, they choose one of the other candidates below…)

Word broke last night that Browns QB and Golden Boy Quarterback of the Future Brady Quinn will miss the rest of the 2008 season.

Quinn visited the Fantasy Football Grim Reaper, Dr. James Andrews, only a few days after saying that his injured finger did not affect his performance on Sunday against the Texans. During the visit, further damage was discovered to the finger; and thus, Brady Quinn will sit out the rest of 2008.

Most people assume that Derek Anderson will be taking over on Sunday when the Browns play the Colts in Cleveland. And that is probably correct. But between the Browns’ 4-7 record, the utter incompetence of Braylon Edwards, the overall ineptitude of our offense, the up and down defense, and questionable job status of Romeo Crennel, Rob Chudzinski, and Phil Savage less than a year after contract extensions…well, let’s just say that this year has not exactly gone according to plan.

So, I am going to run down the Top 10 Candidates to Replace Brady Quinn. We’ll be begin with the assumption that Derek Anderson will immediately step into the role of starter, and then this post will probably start unraveling right before your eyes.

Top 10 Candidates to Replace Brady Quinn at QB

1 – Derek Anderson

Positives: He has starting experience, and was a Pro Bowler in 2007. I wonder if he threw any 300s on the circuit last year. Wait – what? Oh. He played in the Pro Bowl. The one with the best players in the NFL. Wow. It seems like so long ago I barely remember. After watching him this season, it was pretty hard to fathom that Derek Anderson went to the Pro Bowl last year.

Negatives: Well, in the section of positives above, I could not contain my frustration and keep it all positive. Not good when we’re talking about the guy that got a 3-year extension in the offseason. (Update: And now, of course, he’s hurt. So Anderson’s out of the mix.)

2 – Ken Dorsey

Positives: He has been in the Cleveland system forever and knows the offense. (Considering how poorly the offense has played this year, I’m not sure if knowing the offense is actually a positive.) He played at the U with Kellen Winslow.

Negatives: I watched him warming up once and was certain that he had a sprained or separated shoulder. No, I was told – he was actually throwing it as hard as he could. (This story is not true, but it could be.) KVB throws like a ten-year old girl, and he just might be able to get it down the field better than Ken Dorsey.

3 – Joshua Cribbs

Positives: Are you kidding me? Because he’s Joshua Frieking Cribbs. There aren’t many players that I will completely absolve from blame for this season’s woes, but Joshua Cribbs is one of them. He played quarterback at Kent State and would allow us to get the ball into the hands of one of our best play-makers each play. Sure, we might not be able to throw all that well, but are we really throwing it that well right now anyway? What do we have to lose?

Negatives: Joshua Cribbs is one of the top special teams players in the NFL. We don’t want him getting tired running for his life as the quarterback and then being unable to cover and return kicks with his usual pizzazz.

4 – Jerome Harrison

Positives: He has been our most dynamic and consistent play-maker on offense this year, despite his limited role. Every time he touches the ball, something good seems to happen. It stands to reason that if you get the ball into the hands of your play-makers more, good things will happen for the offense.

Negatives: Well, he has never played QB before, so that hurts. Sure, Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have looked like they hadn’t played QB before – but surprisingly they actually had, as recently as 2007! So Jerome’s lack of experience should not work against him.

What may work against him is a little known quirk in the fabric of the universe that only Rob Chudzinski knows about. The entire city of Cleveland is actually lined with dynamite. Every square inch of it. The evil doers who set this up dictated only two things that could trigger detonation, with the assumption being that they will never happen: Jerome Harrison receiving more than 10 touches in a game or the Cleveland Indians winning a World Series. I’m not sure if this is true, but it’s about the only reasonable explanation I can make for the Browns’ aversion to giving the rock to Jerome Harrison more this season – so I’m not ruling it out.

5 – Bill Cowher

Positives: Can you imagine the roar from the Browns crowd? I realize this sounds ridiculous, but think about it: the Browns can’t just install Cowher as their coach right now because they have to comply with the Rooney Rule. However, I can’t think of any rules against signing Bill Cowher to play QB, thus allowing him into the meeting rooms to learn the current system, get to know the players, and begin to change the mentality of this team. You may think this one is ridiculous; I think it makes the most sense of all.

Negatives: He’s old, he has a mustache, and he’s never played quarterback before. If we are going to try out this combination in hopes of actually winning a game, I’d rather go with Tom Selleck or Quint from Jaws. Cowher at QB would obviously be a move for the future and likely result in five straight losses to end the season. If we want to finish the season with dignity, Selleck or Quint could help us get there.

6 – LeBron James

Positives: He is tall, he’s mind-bogglingly athletic, and he played football in high school. Can you imagine a zone-read offense with LeBron James at QB and Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison flanking him, with the threat of a reverse to Joshua Cribbs. Seriously, tell me the Browns wouldn’t score more points that way. Plus, as Cleveland comes to the realization that LeBron will not be around in two seasons, the city needs to get creative in coming up with ways to keep him. Sure, he’d have the big market of New York City if he went to the Nets or Knicks – but wouldn’t he become a global icon faster if he was the NBA MVP and a starting NFL QB? Eat that Bo Jackson.

Negatives: He would be playing for the Browns, which would force him to live under the same dark cloud that everyone associated with the franchise has had to live under since 1999 – and for long before that. How long would it be before LeBron got hurt? One of the greatest NBA careers ever could be derailed by the (un)luck of the Browns.

7 – Tim Sofa

Positives: So I heard about this young kid from rural Kentucky who put up ridiculous numbers in HS playing against a bunch of small schools. Then he went to a big conference, played in a spread and threw the ball 70 times a game and continued to put up great numbers, fooling everyone in the process that he was actually a competent QB. Pick him #1!

Negatives: Unfortunately, this guy has zero leadership qualities, a rag arm, and is more fragile than cracked glass. Yeah, never mind about this one. We’ve been here before.

8 – Zack Morris

Positives: The Browns have lost their pretty boy, eye candy for the ladies now that Brady Quinn is down. Derek Anderson just does not seem to have the same cache with the females. The other problem with DA is that he is not cool and calm under pressure. Brady Quinn needs some time to develop, but it appears as if he will be a cool customer with time. Zack Morris, however, is quite possibly the coolest guy ever. The ladies loved him, he was always finding a way out of difficult situations, and he thrived under less than optimal leadership (Mr. Belding). He could be the perfect choice to succeed in a struggling offense for a struggling coach. (Plus, look at that picture of Ken Dorsey above and tell me he wouldn’t be a worthy Screech Powers.)

Negatives: Well, he’s a TV character and not a real person, so that could be a problem. Of course, many of us thought that Brady Quinn was just a commercial actor and ball boy until he actually played in a game this year. Also, Zack Morris is a California kid from Bayside High, so his toughness could be a question mark. But, what many people forget is that the early episodes of Saved by the Bell (with Miss Bliss) actually took place in Indiana. So Zack Morris has Midwestern roots and, ostensibly, toughness. And perhaps if Preppy plays QB for the Browns he could bring A.C. Slater with him. We could use a linebacker.

9 – Sloth from Goonies

Positives: Look, let’s be honest about something here. Browns fans, on the whole, are not the prettiest people in the world. They are hard-working, blue-collar people who are defined more by toughness, loyalty, and grit than razzle-dazzle, sparkle, and face moisturizers. Doesn’t it seem a bit incongruous that Brady Quinn and his leading-man good looks are quarterbacking this franchise? He should be in Miami or Dallas or L.A. Sloth from Goonies, however, just looks like a Browns fan, doesn’t he? And that’s not to say that most Browns fans are ugly. Really, it’s more of a generalization about the majority of people in the Midwest. Hey, I love the Midwest. It’s where I grew up. But I see more “pretty” people in Dallas every day than in a year of time back home. Doesn’t mean I like the people down here any more (quite the contrary, actually) – it just is what it is.

Negatives: First off, while Browns fans in general may not have much in common with Brady Quinn in terms of looks, Sloth would probably be much more comfortable at Heinz Field with the rest of the eye sores that root for the Steelers. Also, I have to question Sloth’s toughness. He was tough and scary at the beginning of the movie, but quickly turned into a softie. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though, because he helped out the kids and became a hero in the end. Also, he does not appear to be very mobile in the pocket. If he has a decent release, he could be a poor man’s Bernie Kosar, but probably not much more.

10 – Charlie Brown

Positives: First off, his last name. He was born to play football in Cleveland. Secondly, poetic justice. Charlie Brown consistently has the ball yanked out from under him when he runs forward to attempt to kick it, sending him flying up in the air to land on his back with a thud. Sadly, what better metaphor is there for Cleveland Browns football in 2008?

Negatives: I can’t think of any. Let’s add another eponymous superstar to the list of Cleveland greats that is highlighted by Paul and Jim. The legacy can continue with Charlie.

Seriously, at this point, what do we have to lose?

Anyway, after the catch, the Cleveland Browns’ notorious solider Winslow got up wincing in pain with his arm dangling gingerly from an ostensible shoulder injury. The Browns announced today that Kellen Winslow will have an MRI on the shoulder to determine if he suffered any serious damage. There was no further word on how serious the Browns expected the injury to be.

For the season, Kellen has 39 catches for 402 yards and 3 TDs. Like most of the Browns offensive players, his numbers are way off from his spectacular Pro Bowl season in 2007. Additionally, some blogging clowns (like this one) had brought up on numerous occasions that the Browns are 2-0 without Kellen Winslow in the lineup and 2-6 with him in the lineup.

One thing is for sure: if Kellen Winslow does not make that catch last night, the Browns most likely do not win the game. It was a clutch play from a player who has proven to be clutch during his career (his second half brain farts against Denver notwithstanding.)

In other Browns injury news, Best Player Ever Jerome Harrison injured his hamstring according to NFL.com. No word on how serious the injury is, or if it contributed to Harrison getting only 4 touches. Seeing as how the Browns coaches give the ball to Jerome Harrison about as much as Keith Olbermann compliments Republicans, I’m going to say it had nothing to do with it. Either way, Harrison made the most of his touches and averaged over 25 yards per.

Jason Wright hurt his neck, Sean Jones hurt an ankle, Shaun Rogers hurt his shoulder, and Shawn Kemp wonders why none of the Browns players with his name spell it normally.

For continuous live updates of Cleveland Browns news, including injuries, hop on over to the Cleveland Browns news page, bookmark it, and then visit it once every five minutes.

I am still giddy from last night. And yes, it has come to that. A squeaker win against a subpar team in which they choked on a missed field goal has me giddy. I don’t care. My preseason prediction was 9-7 and it’s still possible. Hope lives!

[tags]cleveland browns, kellen winslow, nfl, nfl injuries[/tags]

What a relief of a victory. More than excitement or joy I just feel relieved. We had a lead, gave it away, came within inches of blowing a third straight heartbreaker…but finally we got a break at the end of a game tonight. It wasn’t perfect in any way, it doesn’t mean that the Browns have turned any corners, and it doesn’t mean that we can start talking seriously about the playoffs again (yet.).

What it means is that for one night we were able to make one more play than the opposing team. And that in and of itself feels good enough after the last two weeks.

And what is it about the Browns on Monday night? And about the Browns fanatics here on Midwest Sports Fans being able to predict the outcomes of the Monday night games? Ryan Russell came through this afternoon with his official guarantee of a Browns victory. I went against my gut and picked the Browns. Why? Because I happened to see that the Browns had a better record on Monday Night Football.

What were they keys to tonight’s 29-27 victory? Exactly what any reasonable Browns fan would predict before the game:

1. Braylon Edwards had to step up. He did. Whether it was because the game was on Monday night or because he finally found some focus or because Brady Quinn just kept going back to him, all that matters is that Braylon stepped up. 8 catches, 104 yards. Well done overall Braylon, but still too many drops of catchable balls.
2. 3 carries, 80 yards, and a TD. 1 reception, 21 yards on a key drive. Who is the masked man? Who else. Jerome Harrison. 4 touches and over 100 yards. Unbelievable. I’m excited that Jerome Harrison had the opportunity to make HUGE plays that put the Browns in a position to win, and I’m almost just as pissed off that he only got four touches. PLEASE ROB CHUDZINSKI — GET THE BALL TO JEROME MORE!
3. Kellen Winslow only had 3 catches for 40 yards, but his third catch on the final drive was huge. Without it, Phil Dawson probably does not have a chance to kick his game-winning field goal. It was a quiet night for Kellen, but he came up clutch in a huge moment. And I don’t want to forget about Brady Quinn either. The numbers weren’t great, and he made a couple of awful decisions in the 4th quarter and was lucky to see those passes slip through the fingers of Buffalo’s defenders. But he rebounded and got us in position for the game-winner. He’s a QB — that’s what matters.
4. Phil Dawson. Easily gets the game ball tonight. I predicted 4 field goals, and he did me one better. Five field goals, including the game-winning 56 yarder. Is it just me, or does Phil Dawson seem to have a 3-5 yard stronger leg this year? If he was a baseball player, steroids rumors would be swirling! (Clarification: I am not in ANY insinuating Phil Dawson would ever take steroids. Just making a joke. Sadly, I feel like I need to clarify this.)

Funny anecdote: While driving home from my brother’s Meet the Players Night for his high school basketball game, after Phil Dawson’s first field goal, I called Ryan Russell and left him a message. In the message, I sang “Dawson, he’s Phil Dawson, with the strongest leg in history!” to the tune of Flintstone’s.

I personally wasn’t thinking 56 yards strong. But Halelujah! It was.

I’ll probably post more tomorrow. Great win tonight for the Browns, no matter how ugly. Sometimes a team, an organization, a coach, a fan base, a city just needs a victory. Cleveland, its fans, and the Browns were desperate for a victory tonight. And we got one against another desperate team in their house.

Well done Browns. You showed fight and character tonight. No one quit. And I can’t help but think that it was the will of an entire Browns nation that pushed that kick right. Hyperbole? Perhaps. But thanks to Phil Dawson and the Browns I can even entertain that glorious thought.

[tags]cleveland browns, nfl, monday night football[/tags]

Now onto the preview…

You may have noticed that I have not posted about the Cleveland Browns much lately. I went on a little run there where I was posting about the Browns every other day it seemed, still hungover with the memories of 2007 and perhaps still even a little bit drunk with optimism about the prospects for 2008. Browns fans everywhere were ready to give up on the 2008 season…and then we spanked the Giants. Things looked bleak again after the Redskins loss and subsequent Kellen Winslow fiasco…and then we beat Jacksonville on the road.

Sitting at 3-4, with a chance to take care of Baltimore at home, the well of hope seemed to be once again springing eternal Cleveland. Hell, when we were beating Baltimore by two touchdowns, 4-4 seemed inevitable and thoughts of the playoffs seemed realistic.

Then the f**king wheels fell off. (Excuse my censored french…but the thought of the Baltimore game makes me sick to my stomach.)

We all know what happened after that. We dropped two straight turds at home, in front of loyal fans who just want something to be excited about, and then had to listen all week to players accusing eachother of quitting and coaches making empty defenses, and blah, blah, blah.

The Browns helmet has always looked like a big ‘ol piece of doo-doo with a facemask and chin strap. For the last two weeks, the helmet has doubled as perfect mascot for the kind of crap football being played in Cleveland.

I’ve been accused of being the Browns’ Mr. Positivity. Well guess what — if you came to this post looking for positivity, you can click somewhere else right now. I have purposely not posted because I’ve been waiting to find something positive to say. There has been nothing. There still is nothing.

So it’s time for an all-out rant, in hopes that I can get it out of my system and try to enjoy tomorrow night’s game. Here we go, starting my biggest gripe first.

FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THINGS HOLY, WHY IN GOD’S NAME IS JEROME HARRISON NOT GETTING MORE TOUCHES!!!!!!!!

Nothing has frustrated me more, or the Browns fans I talk to, than this. Just look at the numbers (or, more importantly, watch the damn games): 17 rushes for 127 yards, a 7.5 yard average. 6 catches for 82 yards, a 13.7 yard average. The Broncos game was a microcosm of the Browns season in so many ways, and the usage of Jerome Harrison is no exception. On one drive, Jerome Harrison carried 4 times for over 40 yards. He was gashing Denver play after play. Guess how many rushes he got after that? Not a one.

Honestly, I’d like to print out Jerome Harrison’s stats and mail them to Rob Chudzinski. Maybe he doesn’t realize? Should we give him that benefit of the doubt? Umm…no. He’s the damn offensive coordinator. And the most consistent offensive player he has all year has been relegated to 23 touches. Awesome. Perfect. I want to punch something.

No chemistry, no leadership, and no togetherness

Make any apologies you want. Teams with chemistry…I should say, organizations with chemistry do not have the following things happen:

• Star players calling out the GM and organization in the press
• Veteran stars saying the GM did not contact them while they were in hospital
• Players calling other players out for quitting
• Players publicly saying coaches and management are making things up about injuries
• Blowing double-digit second half leads
• Benching QBs that received contract extensions in the offseason
• Supposed superstar players dropping every other pass thrown their way
• Die hard fans wasting their Sunday night posting a pissed off rant because their team has already matched their loss total from last season.

You know what, I think that last one about covered everything. We’ve discussed ad nauseum on the website all of the many internal problems the Browns have faced this year. Just typing that out made me want to wretch and I don’t want to talk about it anymore. We’re 3-6 and anyone can make whatever apologies they want to make, and talk about how close games have been, and how we should have won this game or that game — well guess what, we didn’t. And now it will take a miracle to even get into playoff contention. I’m nowhere close to being ready to predict a miracle, but I will hazard an attempt at predicting tomorrow night’s game.

Buffalo will win.

Damnit, I can’t do it. The Browns will win.

True story…I just went on Wikipedia to find out all the all-time Monday night football records for Cleveland and Buffalo. I thought for sure that Buffalo’s would be better than Cleveland’s and that it would back up my selection. Well, I was proven wrong. The Browns are 14-12 all-time on Monday night, including the win this year against the Giants. The Bills are 17-21 all-time on Monday night. I will take this unexpected result as a sign that perhaps my gut feeling heading into this game is wrong.

Fine, so what are some reasons why the Browns will then?

It’s Monday night, so Braylon will probably show up

Nothing sets you up better for a career after football than sterling performances on a nationals stage. Braylon hasn’t exactly tried to hide the fact that he is already trying to position himself for life after football, so I expect him to have extra focus tomorrow night — you know, the kind that allows you to transcend the game and make amazing plays like catching quick slants or bombs when you are behind your defender when the throws are right in your hands. Seriously. I would not be shocked if Braylon has 6-7 catches and triple digits yards. Brady Quinn is not going to make a living beating people deep, but he might hit Braylon once tomorrow night on a bomb. And Braylon will be sure to catch it — Hollywood might be watching.

Jerome Harrison will be a bigger part of the gameplan

Ha! Yeah right. Next reason.

Pride has to take over at some point and will you to a victory

We haven’t seen much Browns pride since the Jacksonville game, which now seems like it was six months ago. At the end of the day though, these guys are professionals and they are prideful men who have to sick of all the negativity. Perhaps going into a hostile environment away from the home fans can actually ease the pressure on this team. I know that sounds ironic, but it could be true. Buffalo has played like crap the last three weeks and is quickly falling out of the AFC East race. Their fans will be restless, and maybe their sphincters will tighten up in crunch time at home like the Browns’ did. Either way, I expect to see more fight out of the Browns tomorrow night than we’ve seen the last two games.

Buffalo only averages 90 yards rushing a game

So maybe…just maybe…the Browns won’t get gashed all night on the ground. Of course, the problem against Denver was that we couldn’t stop the pass. Well, both Josh Reed and James Hardy are dinged up. If we can keep Lee Evans in front of us, we might be able to contain their passing game. This defense was very solid before the Baltimore game. If that defense can show up, the Browns have a chance.

Joshua Cribbs

We have him. No other team does. It is the single biggest advantage we have going into every game. If the Browns win, Joshua Cribbs will be a big reason why.

Okay, time for a score prediction. My gut is still telling me to pick Buffalo, that the Browns have not earned my blind faith anymore, and that my credibility could take another hit if I pick them to win and they leave us all disappointed again.

But screw it, the Browns are like a drug. Really, why I else would I have returned to writing about them, and pick them to win if it were not for some sort of irrational addiction-like feeling compelling me to do so.

I say we get two TDs and four Phil Dawson field goals. Buffalo has the ball late, is driving to win the game, and Eric Wright channels his Monday night excellence to get a pick and seal the win.

Browns 26 | Bills 24

I swear, and I mean this: if the Browns fail me tomorrow night, and make me feel like an idiot for not trusting my gut feeling that they are going to lose tomorrow, I’m not picking them to win again all season.

Well, that was fun. I’m going to go stick a fork in my eye and dream about about a sports world that doesn’t so closely resemble hell, and in which it is actually legitimate to have confidence in your favorite team. Please Cleveland, try to at least fool me into thinking that is possible here in this world tomorrow night.

(To read another preview of tonight’s game, head over to The Nosebleeds NFL blog. Good stuff.)

[tags]cleveland browns, nfl, monday night football[/tags]