Jerome Harrison | Midwest Sports Fans

Jerome Harrison’s Life Saved by Voided Trade; Brain Tumor Discovered During Physical

October 20, 2011 By Steve Kubitza Leave a Comment

There were few notable trades before this year’s NFL trade deadline, besides of course the trade of Carson Palmer to the Raiders. One other under the radar trade had to do with former Cleveland Brown and current Detroit Lion Jerome Harrison. The Lions needed a running back to help replace injured Jahvid Best, so they went to the Eagles for help.

The two teams agreed to swap running backs, with Harrison going to Philadelphia and Ronnie Brown going to Detroit. The trade was pending until physicals were done, but this is usually just a formality and rarely produces anything noteworthy. Most guys pass the routine physical and are on their way to their new city.

This time around was different.

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Filed Under: NFL Tagged With: detroit lions, jerome harrison, Philadelphia Eagles, Ronnie Brown

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice for Week 1: McCoy, Tate/Ward, Burleson, Kendricks, and many more

September 6, 2011 By Andy Bottoms 21 Comments

Sometimes things go as planned during the course of your draft. Sometimes they don’t. Sometimes your guys make it through the season without suffering major injuries. Sometimes they don’t. Sometimes your sleepers perform just as you planned. Sometimes they don’t.

When those things go wrong – and from time to time they will – you’ll turn to the waiver wire in your moment of need. And that’s why I’ll be here at the beginning of each week to highlight players owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues.

NFL Week 5 Injury Updates: Peyton Hillis, Austin Collie, Jahvid Best, Andre Johnson, and more

October 8, 2010 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

We do it every Friday: run down all of the fantasy-relevant injuries that you need to be paying attention to as Sunday approaches. So let’s jump right in with this week’s injury updates.

Monday Morning Vent: The Jerome Harrison Hate in Cleveland Continues

September 13, 2010 By Jerod Morris 19 Comments

Last season, the Cleveland Browns were a terrible football team through the first 12 weeks of the season. They lost 11 of their first 12 games, barely could muster any semblance of a competent offense, had their GM quit mid-season, and had the editors of Webster’s Dictionary considering using the Browns team picture next to the word destitute.

Then Jerome Harrison happened.

After the Browns squeezed out a 13-6 win over Pittsburgh that no one thought was possible, the Browns turned the running game over to Harrison for the season’s final three weeks. He responded by running for 286, 148, and 127 yards, plus five scores, leading the Browns to three more victories and deciding many a late season fantasy matchup.

Thus, Harrison was a popular #2/#3 RB choice in fantasy drafts this season, especially once talented rookie Montario Hardesty went down with a season ending knee injury during the preseason. It was expected that Peyton Hillis would take some carries away from Harrison, but how could the Browns not feed Jerome the rock consistently after he (and the O-Line) basically saved everyone’s jobs last season?

Well, they didn’t feed him in Week 1, in a matchup with Tampa Bay and its woeful run D, which represented one of Harrison’s best chances for fantasy stardom in 2010.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice and Projections

October 20, 2009 By Jerod Morris 69 Comments

fantasy-football-week-9-injury-updates-austin-collie-mike-hart-donald-brown-donald-driver

This post is from 2009!

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports for our 2010 Week 7 Start / Sit Projections

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I don’t really know that to say about Week 6.

I suppose there were some not-so-surprising results (Tom Brady and Randy Moss dominating, Drew Brees and Marques Colston dominating, Derek Anderson sucking, etc.) but they were countered by some very surprising results.

How does Cedric Benson dominate Baltimore and struggle against Houston? How do the Eagles get dominated by the Raiders? How does Adrian Peterson not get in the endzone when he ran that well. What happened to the time share between Ray Rice and Willis McGahee???

In the end, I guess Week 6 was like every other week: some stuff happened that we expect, some other stuff happened that we didn’t, and now we have to pick up the pieces and move on.

So let’s do it. Onto the Week 7 start em, sit em lineup advice and projections post.

Fantasy Quick Hit: Ranking Slaton, Mendenhall, Harrison, Moreno, and Coffee for Week 5

October 8, 2009 By Jerod Morris 2 Comments

While preparing to answer another wave of questions in the comment section of my Week 5 start em, sit em post, the lightbulb of inspiration flickered above my head.

I spend so much time answering similar questions about similar players, that I might as well consolidate some of those answers into posts.

Don’t worry, I’ll still answer your comments directly. But for the myriad people who are interested in Steve Slaton, Rashard Mendenhall, Jerome Harrison, Knowshon Moreno, and Glenn Coffee in Week 5 — many of whom seem to be faced with the task of choosing between two or three of them for starting spots — this post should help.

Here are my quick hit Week 5 rankings for these five players this week, plus some explanation.

Jamal Lewis Doubtful, Jerome Harrison to See Increased Role

October 4, 2009 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

It’s time for some quick-hit NFL and fantasy updates. We’ll start in Cleveland, where there is news regarding Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison that is underrated in its importance.

Browns Limp Into Baltimore as 2-TD Underdog, Looking to Avoid Deadly Attack

September 27, 2009 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

First off, my apologies for the delay in posting this week’s Browns preview. I could blame it on a lack of time from the recent site redesign, or the fact that I’ve been a little under weather this week, or that there were other more interesting stories to write about; but, the real reason why I’m not writing and posting this until just a few hours before kickoff is that I’ve specifically wanted to avoid writing about today’s Browns-Ravens game.

Because, regardless, I am going to the Browns Backers with my parents to watch the game, and I have pretty much no hope whatsoever that the Browns have even a prayer to win today.

That lack of hope was made even more severe yesterday when it was announced that Jamal Lewis and Phil Dawson will not play in today’s game.

Quickly, here is the pertinent viewing info for this afternoon from the Week 3 TV schedule and point spreads guide:

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Filed Under: NFL Tagged With: Baltimore Ravens, brady quinn, browns-ravens, Cleveland Browns, jerome harrison, josh cribbs, nfl week 3

Fantasy Football: Week 3 Sleepers at QB, RB, WR, TE, and D/ST

September 23, 2009 By Jerod Morris 14 Comments

Note: This post is from 2009!!!

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports for our 2010 Week 3 sleeper picks.

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So I’m feeling a little under the weather today and decided to stay home from work. Nothing serious so far…just some congestion and a little bit less energy than usual. But, rather than start a Gator-like outbreak where I work, I figured it best to just stay within the confines of my apartment.

Of course, since I work in blogging and social media, “staying home from work” really just means doing exactly what I would be doing at the “office” from my living room table.

Such is life when your real office is a laptop.

I suppose I could have slept in a little longer than usual. No one would have really known. But I’m a morning person and do my best, most focused writing before lunch. I’ve just always been that way.

So rather than hit the snooze the button or sleep in until the last possible second, I get up as early as I think my body can handle and jump right into my day.

In this sense, you could say that I am not a sleeper.

But would you like to know a few guys who are sleepers? Yeah? Well good, because we’re about to discuss a few.

Note: remember how I do all of my weekly sleeper columns. Only players currently on 50% or less of Yahoo rosters are considered. I try my best to highlight players with solid matchups this particular week, but it doesn’t always work out perfectly. Regardless of how they do in Week 3, all of these players are guys I can see being valuable moving forward — unless otherwise specified — especially once the bye weeks hit.

If you want to see how my sleeper works out last week, check out this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em post. As usual, I outlined the successes and failures of the previous week’s picks there. I was right on regarding Correll Buckhalter and the Washington D, but my other picks didn’t come through as well in Week 2. I still do think, however, that Shaun Hill, Vernon Davis, and Robert Meachem are solid guys to have on your bench.

Let’s get to it for Week 3.

Follow this link to StubHub for great deals on NFL tickets.

Week 3 Sleeper Picks

Week 3 QB Sleeper Pick: Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New York Giants)

Full disclosure: I do have ESPN on in the background and did catch Matthew Berry talking about Leftwich, but I swear I was going to write about him anyway. And honestly, Leftwich has sleeper written all over him:

Currently owned in only 25% of Yahoo Leagues.
On a team with a horrendous defense that gets behind early, meaning lots of pass attempts.
572 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs through two games, proving he can take advantage of deficits and passing opportunities.
Myriad fantasy owners have been burned by Leftwich in the past and won’t touch him…meaning he’s still sitting out there despite being ranked #36 overall in Yahoo currently.
Even Calvin Broadus agrees that Leftwich’s stock is on the rise.

This week Leftwich and the Bucs play the Giants, so it may not be the perfect matchup. New York has a great defense and harassed Tony Romo into three picks last Sunday. New York also likes to play ball control offensively, so they might not explode to a big lead that forces the Bucs to throw the entire second half.

That said, you could do worse than Leftwich if you’re heading into the bye weeks without a viable QB fill-in.

And make no mistake, that’s all Leftwich is: a fill-in. With consecutive games against the Giants, Redskins, Eagles, Panthers, Patriots, and Packers, Leftwich may see his numbers fall off somewhat. In fact, he probably will. Remember, he put up his big numbers against Buffalo and Dallas, neither of which has a great secondary.

But the promise for “quality” garbage-time TDs is there if you’re trolling for a backup QB.

Byron Leftwich Week 3 projection: 200 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other QB sleepers I like specifically for Week 3: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (vs Kansas City, 9% owned); Jake Delhomme, Carolina (at Dallas, 36% owned)

A quick note on Jake Delhomme: I know it sounds crazy, but he could be a sneaky good start this week. If you’re in a two-QB league, I think he’s a no-brainer. There is no way that Dallas’ secondary can cover Steve Smith, who has not found the end zone this season (he’s due!) and could be in for a huge game Monday night.

And remember this: Dallas has not forced a turnover all year, which is Delhomme’s Achilles’ heel. I understand if you’re still skittish about starting Delhomme in a single QB league — I would be too — just know that he may pop for two or three TDs on Monday night.

Week 3 RB Sleeper Pick: Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns (at Baltimore Ravens)

Damnit, I did it again.

I found a way to sneak a Cleveland Brown into my sleeper picks.

In Week 1, my Brady Quinn pick worked out well as he got the garbage-time TD I predicted. In Week 2, Robert Royal disappeared. In Week 3, I think Jerome Harrison has intriguing value — especially in PPR leagues — and I think Harrison could be an interesting player from here on out.

Follow the link to read more about my thoughts on Harrison’s fantasy potential in 2009. This is not the first time I’ve touted him.

Currently, Harrison is owned in only 4% of leagues, so he’s definitely available. Let’s say you own Brian Westbrook and Marion Barber…you could be in need of a deeper sleeper as early as this week.

Here is why I think Jerome Harrison is an intriguing value for Week 3:

In his first game last week, Harrison caught four passes for 24 yards.
Cleveland’s offense blows, and swing passes to Harrison are one of the few reliable ways the Browns can get the ball into the hands of a play-maker. Expect his receptions to continue.
Over the last few years in New York, Eric Mangini proved that he can utilize a back — Leon Washington — with Harrison’s skills and size.
Until Harrison got hurt during the preseason, Mangini was singing his praises and vowing to do what all Browns fans wished the team would do last year: get Harrison the ball more.
Baltimore has already proven itself to be susceptible to running backs catching passes out of the backfield. In Week 2, Darren Sproles ripped them for 7 catches, 124 yards, and a TD. In Week 1, Jamaal Charles caught 4 passes for 29 yards. The Ravens are going to stuff the Browns’ running game, there is almost no question. Throwing to the backs will inevitably become a big part of the gameplan.
Jerome Harrison scored one of his TDs last season against Baltimore on a 19-yard reception. The brilliant Browns’ coaching staff of 2008 didn’t give him another touch in the game.

There are obviously a lot of backs I would not bench for Harrison. And the majority of rosters probably couldn’t handle taking a flyer on him, but keep your eye out. If you need someone at RB this week, I think Harrison could pay modest dividends. Cleveland will get blown out by Baltimore this weekend, but Harrison could get 5-6 catches and possibly even a TD.

And if anything happens to Jamal Lewis (who is, remember, in the dreaded 30+ RB category), Harrison will get more carries as well.

I may once again regret recommending a Brown, but Jerome is a guy I’ve been singing the praises of since last season. I’m sticking with him, no matter how deep of a sleeper he may be.

Jerome Harrison Week 3 projection: 3 rushes for 9 yards, 5 receptions for 38 yards, 1 TD

Other RB Sleepers I like specifically for Week 3: Mewelde Moore, Pittsburgh (at Cincinnati, 13% owned); Justin Forsett, Seattle (vs Chicago, 18%)

I also love Tashard Choice this week if Marion Barber does not play, but Fraschetti already covered Choice in his waiver wire post, so I didn’t want to take the easy way out.

Week 3 WR Sleeper Pick: Chansi Stuckey, New York Jets (vs Tennessee Titans)

Something tells me Chansi Stuckey might catch four passes this weekend against the Titans. Why do I think this? Well, perhaps because he has caught four passes in each of the Jets’ last four regular season games for 43, 50, 64, and 37 yards.

Unlike the final two games of last year, however, when none of Stuckey’s eight catches got him into the end zone, he’s already reached pay dirt once in ’09 (Week 1 at Houston) and barely missed catching a TD against New England in Week 2.

Stuckey is clearly the #2 wideout, is receiving red zone targets, and Mark Sanchez is not playing like a typical rookie QB. I see no reason why Stuckey cannot continue to catch 3-5 balls per game, for 45-75 yards, with the occasional TD. Those aren’t great numbers, but they are solid for a fill-in or a reliable flex play.

As for this week, the 27%-owned Stuckey gets to go up against Tennessee’s last-ranked pass defense. Temper your expectations because the Titans are not that bad and will no doubt play well in desperation mode this week, but Stuckey should still get his usual four receptions.

Chansi Stuckey Week 3 projection: 4 catches, 55 yards, .5 TD (i.e. who the hell knows and why predict it, but he’s getting red zone chances so it would not be a surprise)

Other WR sleepers I like specifically in Week 3: Isaac Bruce, San Francisco (at Minnesota, 47% owned); Brandon Stokley, Denver (at Oakland, 21% owned); Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (at Arizona, 14% owned); Bobby Wade, Kansas City (at Philadelphia, 9% owned)

Week 3 TE Sleeper Pick: No one

I have now being sitting here for ten minutes staring at the under-50% tight ends in Yahoo and can’t find anyone I want to recommend.

Vernon Davis is still the best of the bunch, but I’ve lauded him two weeks in a row with only 7 catches and 72 yards to show for it. I still like Davis long-term this season, but will wait for a little bit more proof on the field before continuing to fawn over his potential.

Anthony Fasano is intriguing because the Dolphins have targeted him a decent amount, but only 3 catches for 11 yards — and with some key drops — has understandably sullied his value and rep.

I like the two TEs in Green Bay — Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley — against St. Louis this week, but who do you start?

And whoever starts at TE for Tennessee could get some opportunities, but it’s undecided right now because Bo Scaife is dinged up. Alge Crumpler would go if Scaife can’t, and they also have promising rookie Jared Cook as an option.

Instead of recommending anyone specifically, I’ll simply reiterate my support from this week’s start em, sit em column for Brent Celek. He is proving to be a very reliable tight end and is an obvious favorite of Kevin Kolb. With Kolb starting again this week, grab Celek (60% owned) if you can.

Week 3 D/ST Sleeper Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

I know it sounds crazy to recommend the Bengals’ D against Pittsburgh, but my #1 choice is Denver and I already discussed them in the start ‘em, sit ‘em column. Consider this a bonus sleeper pick.

Pittsburgh has not proven it can run the ball, the game is in Cincinnati, and the Bengals are coming off of two impressive defensive performances. I think we are going to see a low-scoring slugfest on Sunday, with the Bengals having the potential to capitalize on suspect pass protection for Ben Roethlisberger, as well as the fact that the Steelers will probably be throwing a lot.

Lots of passing creates more opportunities for sacks, INTs, and passes broken up, which can all bring fantasy points depending on your scoring system.

I wouldn’t expect the same number of sacks that Cincy got last week as Big Ben is hard to bring down, but the Bengals should have a solid day Sunday and certainly are worthy of being owned in more than 6% of leagues.

Cincinnati Defense Week 3 projection: less than 20 points, 2 sacks, 1 INT

Other team defense sleepers I like specifically in Week 3: Denver Broncos (at Oakland, 37% owned)

And that concludes this week’s sleeper picks. Feel free to ask any questions down in the comment section and I’ll do my best to answer you as quickly as I’m able.

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* – Byron Leftwich and Snoop Dog photo credit: SnoopDog.com

* – Bengals D v Pittsburgh photo credit: Getty Images via Zimbio

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports, Featured Column, NFL Tagged With: Byron Leftwich, Chansi Stuckey, cincinnati bengals, Fantasy Football, fantasy football sleepers, fantasy football week 3, jerome harrison, sleeper pick, week 3 sleeper picks, week 3 sleepers

Browns-Vikings Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

September 12, 2009 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

I can’t wait for tomorrow.

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year.

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009′s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first.

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised.

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive.

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007′s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield.

Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity.

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game.

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

Brandon McDonald led the team with five
Sean Jones had four
Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
Mike Adams had two
Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing.

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season.

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

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* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Filed Under: NFL Tagged With: Adrian Peterson, brady quinn, brandon mcdonald, braylon edwards, brett favre, Brodney Pool, Browns-Vikings preview, Cleveland Browns, Cleveland Browns Tickets, D'Qwell Jackson, eric mangini, eric wright, football, jamal lewis, James Davis, jerome harrison, joshua cribbs, kevin williams, Minnesota Vikings, Minnesota VIkings Tickets, NFL, NFL Week 1, pat williams, shaun rogers, Williams Wall

Reports: Browns Might Cut Jamal Lewis

September 5, 2009 By Jerod Morris 1 Comment

Browns might cut RB Jamal Lewis I have three words for Eric Mangini and George Kokinis if they are seriously considering cutting veteran running back Jamal Lewis:

Don’t.

Do.

It.

In the Plain-Dealer this morning, Mary Kay-Cabot wonders if the Browns will do just that, despite the fact they already paid him a $3.5 million bonus this offseason and that his only backups are the current injured Jerome Harrison and 6th round rookie James Davis, who has apparently become the next Jim Brown after one 81-yard scamper against the Detroit WinlessLions.

A quick excerpt:

Could Browns running back Jamal Lewis be cut today when the Browns trim their roster to 53?

NFL sources said rumblings began a couple of days ago that Lewis, who turned 30 last week, could be one of the dozen players the Browns let go, and ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter on Friday put Lewis at the top of his list of big-name players on the bubble. Nationalfootballpost.com’s Mike Lombardi also speculated Lewis will be cut.

Among the many reasons why I think this would be a terrible move:

It makes the $3.5 million already given to Lewis basically just a colossal waste of money.
Lewis has done a tremendous job of accepting that his role will likely be reduced this year and has taken to mentoring Davis, who went to the same high school as Lewis. For a rookie RB, this must be invaluable.
Jamal Lewis may be too old and slow to be a featured, wear-’em-down type back any more, but he can still churn out tough yards and get goalline carries. Have Jerome Harrison of James Davis proven they can do this?
As much as we all want to hope that the Browns can engineer a Dolphins- or Falcons-like turnaround in 2009, the fact of the matter is that the Browns are more likely than not building for the future. Unless there is something we don’t know about Lewis’ willingness to play the role of good soldier under the regime, there is no reason to cut him and prevent Jerome and James from having his experience and leadership at their disposal.
Jamal Lewis is one of the few leaders on this offense. With Brady Quinn, a first-year starter, likely to take over as the QB, why not give him the support of a veteran in the backfield who can allow Quinn to grow into his leadership role.

I could go on and on. Yes, the Browns would save some money cutting Lewis, but I think it would be a terribly myopic decision. Hopefully when the final cuts are announced, Lewis’ name will not be among them and we can put this foolish story behind us.

Filed Under: Featured Column, NFL Tagged With: Cleveland Browns, eric mangini, george kokinis, jamal lewis, James Davis, jerome harrison, NFL

Peter King May Disagree, But There Are Reasons For Hope in Cleveland

September 3, 2009 By Jerod Morris 2 Comments

There are plenty of reasons to expect the Cleveland Browns to not be very good and to not win very many games in 2009.

Chief among those reasons: they are, after all, the Cleveland Browns.

There is certainly a lot of Browns hate floating around as we approach the first week of the 2009 NFL season. Peter King of SI has predicted that Cleveland will finish with the league’s worst record, 2-14, and be a game worse than even the Detroit Lions. Take a a few minutes to sample the power rankings at sites like ESPN, FoxSports, and elsewhere. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that while the Browns are not quite the worst team in the NFL, they are not too far away.

So what the hell am I thinking trying to approach a Browns 2009 season preview with the goal of disproving the conventional wisdom? Am I totally off my rocker sitting down this morning in search of legitimate reasons for why Browns fans should have hope heading into 2009?

The answer to both questions is: I’m not sure.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Cleveland Browns tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

But here I am, and here you are, and damnit, at the end of the day this is the NFL we are talking about. If a Dolphins or Falcons or Ravens fan had set out to write a similar post before last season began, they would have been looked at as fools too. And we know how that turned out.

Consider the following:

The Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens entered 2008 with new head coaches who had no head coaching experience. The Browns enter 2009 with a new head coach who actually has head coaching experience.
The Dolphins and Falcons had been bad for a while. They were not a year removed from a 10-win season, as the Browns are.
The Falcons and Ravens entered last year with first round rookie QBs starting. The Browns have one guy a year removed from making the Pro Bowl…who will likely be the backup. Brady Quinn, the Browns’ own first round, first-year probably starter at least enters this season with a couple of years of NFL experience under his belt.

Somehow, despite so many odds seeming to be stacked against them, the Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens all made the playoffs last year. Time and again in the NFL we see teams rise from the depths of low-to-no expectations to shock the football world by winning 9, 10, 11 games. 2007 in Cleveland was a prime example.

So no matter how bad you expect the Browns to be in 2009, remember that the Dolphins and Falcons were expected to be just as bad, if not worse, in 2008. And look where they ended up.

But simple, general, implied correlations such as what I’ve just done mean nothing. A Lions fan could say the same thing. So could a Raiders fan. It’s time to get specific. We all rationally understand, based on recent NFL history, that teams going from worst-to-first is not a freak phenomenon in the NFL.

For Browns fans — my long-suffering and frowning brethren who are desperately grasping for hope, for something legitimate to believe in heading into 2009 — what are some real and team-specificÂ reasons why 2009 could be the season when we put the wait for next year on hold?

1 – Eric Mangini will see your 4-12 record, and raise you a playoff berth

Forgive the somewhat obtuse poker analogy, but this fact remains: Eric Mangini has already proven that he can immediately take a team from 4-12 (the Browns’ record in 2008) to the playoffs. He did it in 2006, his first year with the Jets, after New York had played to win the games in 2005 but did not win many under Herm Edwards.

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns Prediction Interestingly enough, the parallels to do not end there.

You may recall that in 2004, the year preceding the Jets’ 4-12 stumble and Edwards’ eventual ouster, the Jets went 10-6. Â Similarly, as I know you will recall because I’ve already mentioned it, the Browns went 10-6 in 2007, the year prior to their 4-12 collapse in 2008 that led to the ouster of then-head coach Romeo Crennel.

So for Eric Mangini, this is already charted territory. The man has done it once, which should give Browns fans a legitimate reason to think that he can do it again.

(Note to all Browns fans: for the sake of our ever-diminishing sanity, let’s forget for the moment the fact that Mangini’s Jets yo-yo’d back to 4-12 in his second year, completing a four-year run of 10-6, 4-12, 10-6, 4-12 that we would obviously like to avoid.)

2 – Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley have nowhere to go but up

Let’s get one given about the 2009 Browns out of the way right now. We all know that this is a team still in need of more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thus, the playmakers that they do have absolutely mustÂ play up to their capabilities this season.

Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are, unquestionably, two of the five most talented players on the Browns roster (along with the consistently solid Joe Thomas, Josh Cribbs, and Shaun Rogers…at least he was last year). Both Braylon and Kamerion were awful in 2008, despite already having proven that they can succeed at the NFL level. These two must play much closer to their potential for the Browns to have success in 2009.

And there is every reason to believe that they will do so.

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns Prediction Braylon Edwards is the player that I correctly pegged as the key to the Browns season in 2008Â after we watched him struggle in Week 1 against Dallas. Sadly, I was proven correct as Braylon’s awful season was symbolic of the entire team’s failure last year.

But this is still a guy who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft, who has shown that he can produce yards and TDs in big numbers, and who should be entering his prime at 26 years old.

In 2007, we probably saw Braylon’s ceiling. In 2008, we probably saw his floor. In 2009, we just need to see a very good receiver, which Braylon is perfectly capable of being. And if Braylon is only very good — putting on hold, for a moment, any expectation of him being great — he should produce 75-85 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards, and 8-9 TDs. These are not unreasonable numbers.

And think about it: if Braylon had just been good last year, as opposed to decidedly awful, the Browns probably win one or two more games.

Auspiciously, Braylon has appeared better and more focused this preseason (3 rec, 51 yards, TD in the Browns’ most recent preseason game) and should be more consistent if the Browns pick one QB and stick with him.

He can’t be worse than he was last year, and that alone will make the Browns better.

On the other side of the ball, Kamerion Wimbley is, like Braylon, a former first round pick with worlds of talent. He is also, like Braylon, prone to inconsistency and had his worst season as a pash rusher last year. After a great rookie season in which Wimbley got 11 sacks, he fell to only 4 last season.

So like Braylon, we have probably seen Kamerion’s floor. I’m not quite sure we have seen his ceiling yet, however; and the combo of Eric Mangini and new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may just be able to unleash it. The Jets and Raiders (where Ryan coached last season) were both in the top half of the NFL in sacks last year. Say what you will about the ability of Ryan’s Raiders to stop the run — they couldn’t — but they did a decent job of getting after the passer.

And he is, after all, a Ryan.

The Browns have Shaun Rogers and D’Qwell Jackson as the centerpieces of their quest to improve the run defense. And let’s be honest, it could improve and still not be very good. Kamerion Wimbley, on the other hand, is the centerpiece of the Browns’ pass rush, and there appear to be new strategies in play (such as moving him around more) to make him more effective.

Kamerion has too much talent to pick up only four sacks this year. If he can get back into double-digits, which he is perfectly capable of doing, the Browns’ defense will improve. An improvement by Kamerion alone won’t make the Browns defense great, and might not make it good, but it will at least make it better.

Assuming these two immensely talented players can play closer to their abilities than they did last season, it should make the Browns 2-3 games better. I suppose it’s fair to say that we should expect such improvement at our own risk, but it’s at least a reason for hope.Â

Remember, we’re Browns fans. Hope is all we have.

3 – The pieces are in place for the Browns to be far more effective running the football

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns Prediction

A lot of blame got heaped onto Derek, Brady, and Braylon for the Browns’ offensive struggles last season, and deservedly so; but the running game provided little in the way of backup. The Browns finished 26th in the league in rushing last year with a paltry 3.9 yards per carry. Unless you have a healthy Kurt Warner with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at receiver, that’s just not going to get it done.

Much was made of the Derek-to-Braylon and Derek-to-Kellen and Derek-to-Jurevicius combos that made the Browns’ 2007 offense so successful. But did you realize that the Browns also finished 10th in rushing that yearÂ and averaged 4.3 yards per carry?

With Brady Quinn likely to get the nod at QB, and two rookies plus a QB-turned-kick-returner-turned-wide-receiver likely to be among his top five targets on the outside, the Browns will have an inexperienced passing game in 2009 that will undoubtedly be a work in progress. Where we have the best combination of experience and talent is in the backfield.

And, as with the assumed improvement of Braylon and Kamerion, I think it’s safe to assume that the running game will be better in ’09 — in large part because it cannot possibly be worse.

Jamal Lewis is a former freak-of-nature-type stud who could bowl over defenders and run by them at the same time. Now tumbling down the 30-and-over running back hill, Lewis lacks breakaway speed and can be painfully slow to the hole. What he can do, however, is churn out tough yards while wearing down defenders, block effectively, and provide much-needed leadership on an offense that is devoid of it.

I’ve heard whispers that the Browns should cut ties with Lewis because of his diminishing skills as a runner. That’s a myopic viewpoint. This will probably be his last year in Cleveland, but he will still be valuable, for the reasons mentioned above, even if his carries are reduced (which they should be) and he’s only a 3.8 yard per carry back.

Where my excitement and optimism about the Browns running game comes from is the presence and flashes of brilliance that we’ve seen from Jerome Harrison and James Davis. I’ve written at length about these two players and their potential for success in 2009Â here and here, so I won’t repeat myself. Suffice it to say, as long as Eric Mangini and Brian Daboll make good on their promise to get these guys more involved, the Browns will be a better running football team in 2009.

Something else to keep in mind: while everyone focused on the Jets’ passing game and Brett Favre last season, they were surprisingly effective running the football. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington led a ground attack that finished 9th in the league in rushing.

And one more thing to keep in mind: Eric Mangini comes from the Bill Belichick school of coaching, where you focus on what players can do, as opposed to what they cannot do, and put them in positions to succeed and maximize their value to the team. One example that proves this is the Jets’ superb use of Leon Washington last year.

The previous Browns coaching staff always seemed hung up on what players could not do, as evidenced by their exasperating unwillingness to get Jerome Harrison consistent touches. The guy averaged more than 7 yards per carry! No one thinks he can keep that up with 100-125 carries, but he certainly is part of the solution to the Browns ground woes and I expect the new coaching staff to recognize this.Â

[Editor's Note: As someone astutely pointed out to me after posting this, Romeo Crennel also came from the Belichick school of coaching. Â And to that I say...he must not have listened very well. Hopefully Mangini was a better student.]

Time will tell how effectively Mangini and Daboll can direct the Browns offense, but the Jets’ success running last season plus the versatility of the Lewis-Harrison-Davis trio has me optimistic that we will be much better on the ground this year than we were last year. We sure as hell (broken record alert!) can’t be much worse. And that right there is another reason to hope for and expect improvement.Â

Finally, here a few additional quick-hit reasons for Browns fans to have hope heading into 2009:

– Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are playmaking, ball-hawking cornerbacks who have flashed the potential for both greatness (the home Monday night win over the Giants) and for punishing lapses in focus (the devastating Broncos loss). As they gain experience and enter their prime, improvement should be inevitable. Add to this the fact that Eric Mangini is a secondary coach at heart and in experience, and I think we can safely assume that one position for which focus should be less of a problem this year is the defensive backfield.

– Josh Cribbs, whose contributions to the team’s 2007 success were never fully appreciated in my opinion, looks energized this preseason. Obviously something needs to be done with his contract, but if Cribbs can stay healthy and not fight nagging injuries like he did last year, he will make the Browns better on offense and special teams.

– The Browns’ schedule, in theory, should be more palatable than last year’s. While the NFC North looks to be much improved this year, the AFC West has only one good team. And if Baltimore continues its trend of being good one year and then bad the next, it could provide two in-division opportunities for victories that were not there last year.

Just a quick glance at the schedule reveals the following eight games that are very winnable: at Denver, vs Cincinnati, at Buffalo, at Detroit, at Cincinnati, and the last three games of the year: at Kansas City, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville. If the Browns are indeed a better football team in 2009, and can find a way to just go 6-2 or 5-3 in these eight games, a 7-9 or 8-8 or *gasp* even better record is possible.

And those final three games, against teams that no one is pegging as playoff-caliber heading into the year, could prove valuable if the Browns somehow are in contention for a playoff spot.

So, in conclusion, Peter King can take his 2-14 prediction and shove it.

I like Peter King and read his Monday Morning Quarterback column religiously, and after last season’s debacle I suppose anything is possible. When your team is picked to compete in the AFC, you get five prime-time games, and then you fall flat on your face, it’s hard to really argue when an outsider shows a lack of faith.

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns Prediction But there are reasons for hope in Cleveland that many prognosticators, and even many fans, are not recognizing. Similarly, there were reasons for caution heading into last year that many prognosticators, and certainly many fans, turned a blind eye towards. The unexpected happened in 2007 and the unexpected happened in 2008, so who’s to say the unexpected won’t happen in 2009?

I realize that I may be setting myself up for another season of disappointment and heartache, but I’m beginning to get excited and optimistic about the 2009 Browns. I honestly have no idea if we will be better or if we will be worse, and the truth is that nobody does. This is the National Football League aka Not For Long aka No F’ing Logic, a league where the unexpected has ironically become the expected.

Eric Mangini has already proven that he can defy conventional wisdom and expectations in his first year with a new team, and the Browns have certainly proven they can defy conventional wisdom and expectations with their performance the last two years. But, alas, this is the Browns we are talking about, a team notorious for its consistent ability to suck the hope and optimism out of its fans by a seasons’ end.

So call it a coping mechanism, call it foolhardy positivity, or even just call it crazy. Either way, while the fresh-cut-grass smell is still emanating from another NFL season set to begin, with every team sitting there even at 0-0, I will once more jump on the bandwagon of optimistic hope and believe that the unexpected can indeed occur in Cleveland.

We’ll see.Â

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* – Cleveland Browns helmet logo credit: Wikipedia

* – Eric Mangini photo credit: New York Post

* – Braylon Edwards photo credit: The Repository (Canton, OH) via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

* – Kamerion Wimbley photo credit: AP via DayLife

Filed Under: Featured Column, NFL, Sports Writers and Reporters Tagged With: brady quinn, brandon mcdonald, braylon edwards, Brian Daboll, Cleveland Browns, Cleveland Browns 2009 season preview, eric mangini, eric wright, jamal lewis, James Davis, jerome harrison, Kamerion Wimbley, NFL, Rob Ryan

Browns Preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report

August 29, 2009 By Jerod Morris Leave a Comment

Over the course of the last week, I have had the pleasure of engaging in a Browns preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report. You can stay current with Barry’s latest updates on the OBR blog. As I listen to the third preseason game (Titans up 7-0 right now, Brady Quinn started) I will post the answers below for your viewing pleasure.

And remember, if you are a Cleveland Browns fan, there is no greater Cleveland Browns resource online than the Orange & Brown Report. So click over there and register for premium access. The best part: you get a 7-day free trial to realize how kick ass it is. We know that with Eric Mangini in charge, information will be hard to come by. No one will have more than these guys.

If you don’t want to do the premium access right now, at the very least follow the OBR on Twitter for the latest Browns news as it happens.

Also, follow these links to StubHub for great deals on 2009 Browns tickets or tickets to all NFL games.

Okay, I’ve shilled enough (but I do mean it, these guys are great). Onto the Q&A:

Q: I heard Gil Brandt on Sirius say that the reason the Browns have notÂ announced their QB yet is because they are trying to trade Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson and do not want to hurt the trade value for either. Is there any truth to this, based on what you know? And how do you see the QB situation shaking out?

Barry McBride: Gil Brandt is obviously a great football mind and still well-connected in NFL circles. This isn’t a new thought, however. It’s something we’ve discussed on the OBR ever since Eric Mangini announced that there would be a quarterback competition back in March during the scouting combines.

Brady Quinn - Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns QB battle At the time, there was a lot of speculation that the Browns would deal either Quinn or Anderson for draft picks, and it made no sense to reduce the trade value of either by declaring one of them to be the team’s backup. It’s certainly possible that one or the other will still be dealt, and that this is why Mangini is waiting, although there isn’t anything visibly percolating at the moment.

Another way to look at it is that neither quarterback has stepped up and grabbed the job by the throat. The Browns hoped that either Quinn or DA would make it a non-issue by their performance this Summer, but both quarterbacks continue to demonstrate their respective strengths and weaknesses as expected. Neither has really stepped their game up to the point where the job was clearly won, although Quinn still seems to have the edge.

One other thing to keep in mind is that Eric Mangini’s penchant for secrecy dates back to his time as a defensive coordinator working for Bill Belichick. He has said that one of the toughest things for him to overcome as a defensive coordinator is not knowing which quarterback he will be facing in the coming weeks. He may simply be holding off declaring a winner to make it harder for the Vikings to plan for the season opener.

Q: One of my thoughts regarding DA and Brady is that while Brady should, theoretically, be less prone to the boneheaded mistakes weâ€™ve become accustomed to with Derek, having Derek as the starter would be better for Braylon. And with the Browns devoid of proven playmakers on offense, putting Braylon in the best position to succeed may be the best move for us offensively. Do you agree?

Barry McBride:Â I like how you’re thinking, but I’m not sure I’m fully on board.

The first thought that springs to mind is that the biggest challenge to Braylon Edwards’ success since 2007 has typically been Braylon himself. While undeniably talented, Edwards seems to suffer from lapses in focus that aren’t dependent on who is quarterbacking. He has memorable dropped touchdown passes that have been delivered to him from both Quinn and Anderson in the past, as recently as the first preseason game against the Packers when Quinn hit him in the back of the end zone.

If anything, Quinn’s softer touch with the football might help Edwards hold onto the ball somewhat, although Anderson’s ability to stretch the field obviously makes Edwards a threat on every play, as does Anderson’s sometimes stubborn desire to focus on getting the ball to him even when dealing with double or triple-coverage.

One other factor that suggests that Quinn might ultimately help Edwards is that it’s critical for the Browns to have credible #2 and #3 receiving threats, and a credible threat of runners catching passes out of the backfield as well. Anderson has a tendency to continually attempt to feed the ball to Edwards (and Winslow in past years), and Quinn’s tendency to go through his progressions quickly might force opponents to take the Browns’ other receivers far more seriously and help reduce the amount of attention that Edwards gets from opponents.

I suspect that we’ll ultimately really only know how Edwards would fare under a full season with Quinn at QB is to give that option a chance, and see how he does.

(As I am posting this, Phil Dawson just kicked a field goal. Browns close the gap to 7-3.)

Q: As a fan who is 1,000 miles away from the action, I can only look at stats and quotes in the paper to make a judgment. With QBs though, leadership, intangibles, huddle command, etc., are so important. Between Derek and Brady, who seems to have more respect from their teammates? Who â€œcommandsâ€ the team better? Or have they not separated themselves in this regard either?

Barry McBride:Â I would give the edge here to Quinn as well, based on what I’ve heard through OBR reporters like Lane Adkins and Fred Greetham.

With some strong personalities on the Browns (as with every team), it’s critical that there not be a question about who is in charge in the huddle. As we’ve been told by players themselves, there’s no question when Quinn is on the field that he’s running the show. Although it’s never been said outright by his teammates, by extension, one can infer that Anderson may be somewhat less of a take-charge guy. I have to add, however, that Lane Adkins has relayed this year that Anderson’s approach in that department has taken a step up. He has a little more of a swagger about him than in past years.

Full disclosure: Someone reading the last two answers may conclude that I’ve got my mind made up about who I think would serve the Browns better in the long run. To that, I have to say, “guilty as charged”.

I was an advocate of drafting Quinn, have advocated giving him opportunities faster, and have been skeptical about Anderson ever since we got our first prolonged exposure to him during 2007 training camp. He’s clearly got tremendous athletic ability and potential that makes offensive coordinators salivate, but I admit that I still see the same quarterback from Oregon State highlight films: rocket arm, sprays the ball all over the field, and has a very high dependence on getting good protection and having receivers who will out-muscle defenders for the ball. That all came together to support him in 2007, and he was a Pro Bowler. It didn’t happen in 2008, and I don’t see it happening in 2009, either. On a team that has those attributes around him, Anderson could be very successful, but the Browns just aren’t there.

Q: Okay, well that about wraps things up. Wait…oh…there are 21 other starting positions on the Browns this year? Who knew?

What is the status of the contract talks with Josh Cribbs? When I watched the Detroit preseason game, it reminded me that we do, in fact, have a gamebreaker other than Dropsie Edwards. To me, especially with his improvement as a WR, Cribbs’ contract demands are not in any way outlandish. Are Mangini and Kokinis just playing a cat-and-mouse game with Cribbs and planning to sign him, or do you think they just are not convinced yet that he is worth more than he is making?

Barry McBride:Â Cribbs has agreed to come in, practice, and play despite lack of visible progress being made on his contract. Obviously, he’s a key component of the Browns special teams, but the team itself claims to be mystified as to how to price a return man (and obviously is not wanting to give Cribbs the same money that the Bears laid out for Devin Hester). The Browns are also, like most NFL teams, reluctant to tear up a contract with two years left. Although it should be noted that this reluctance rarely is in evidence when players are under-performing rather than out-performing their deals.

As luck would have it, the preseason has given Cribbs a chance to make a serious push for the #2 WR role which, if he wins it, bails both him and the team out by providing some more guidance about where Cribbs’ price should be, as well as a stronger rationalization for doing so. The Cribbs saga has yet to play out, but has already been marked by some of the worst mainstream media reporting I’ve ever seen, as both local and national media elements carve headlines out of virtually nothing more than having their previous assumptions about Cribbs’ intentions proven wrong.

Q: There have been rumblings recently that James Davis could start sneaking his way into more first team action. How patient will Mangini be with Jamal Lewis if Jamal continues to be slow to the hole and sports a 3.5-3.8 yard per carry average? And how does Jerome Harrison fit into this equation? Mangini seemed committed to getting Harrison the ball based on comments from early training camp, but Davis appears to have passed him over the last week. When will Jerome get back on the field and how do you see the attempts being split up between he and the rook?

Barry McBride:Â I don’t see Davis and Harrison as being much in conflict since they’re different types of backs. Harrison, although he gets more yards after contact than I would have expected, still primarily fits the mold of an NFL third-down back, whereas Davis is more of a between-the-tackles runner, like Jamal Lewis. I see Davis as spelling Lewis, with Harrison appearing more in third down situations. What Davis’ emergence means to Harrison is that he’s less likely to get opportunities to serve as an every down back, although I considered that to be somewhat questionable in any event.

If the interior of the Browns offensive line can’t hold holes open for longer than they have in the preseason, Lewis’ opportunities will go down, since Davis is quicker to the hole. This won’t make Lewis happy, as he still seems to firmly believe he’s most effective with 20-25 carries per game. While statistics bear that out for his career as a whole, it’s a dubious notion at this point.

Q: Real quick before we move to defense, what can Browns fans expect from the offensive line this year? Obviously Joe Thomas is an anchor on the left side, but will this year’s line be closer in performance to the 2007 unit or last year’s sieve?

Barry McBride:Â I wouldn’t expect 2007-level performance, simply because I don’t believe that Pork Chop Womack can perform at the same level that Ryan Tucker did during that year. We found out in 2008 how critical Tucker was to that unit and to helping out the undersized Hank Fraley and new right tackle Kevin Shaffer. It’s no coincidence, in my view, that the team’s best performance last year came in the one game where Tucker appeared. He has been on and off the practice field all preseason, and I don’t anticipate that he’ll be able to help take the right side of the Browns line up to the next level. Womack and John St. Clair have been steady and professional, although St. Clair has shown in the preseason a tendency towards ill-timed penalties.

Alex Mack has a very good shot of displacing Hank Fraley at center, but we’ve already seen him dealing with the rough NFL learning curve. In the AFC North, he’ll have to contend with some of the best nose tackles in the league. Expect mistakes to be made as Mack adjusts to the NFL.

Q: Braylon Edwards is the only “sure thing” in the receiving corps (except when wide open passes come his way, of course). How have the rookies looked? And is Mike Furrey (only a few years removed from a really good season in Detroit) an under-the-radar acquisition to could have 50-, 60-catch impact and play a QB-friendly role like what Joe Jurevicius was in ’07?

Barry McBride:Â Furrey looks like a very good third receiver so far, which the team has missed ever since Dennis Northcutt went on his way. It’s doubtful that he could equate to what Jurevicius did (since Furrey will be out of the slot, and JJ was a #2 WR, in any event). It looks like he might be a smart fantasy football pickup late in the draft based on his performance so far in the preseason. He will probably get 30-40 catches from what I’ve seen so far.

Brian Robiskie has been a little bit disappointing since being hyped as a pro-ready NFL receiver, but such hype rarely proves true. Both he and Massaqoui are dealing with the usual struggles you see receivers suffer in their rookie season. At this point, Massaquoi may be higher on the depth chart based on his performance to date. He has looked very solid both in practice and games and should be in line for some playing time as the season begins.

Q: We know that everything defensively revolves around Shaun Rogers, with D’Qwell Jackson providing steady performance at LB, but it seems to me that for the Browns to to improve defensively, two things need to happen: Kamerion Wimbley needs to get to 11-12 sacks and fulfill the potential he showed as a rookie, and the Eric Wright-Brandon McDonald combo needs to become more consistent. Do you agree? And is there anything inherent in the new system/coaching staff that should help these players improve this seson?

Barry McBride:Â The Browns really needed to improve their game up the middle, and adding Eric Barton alongside D’Qwell Jackson seems to be a terrific move so far. Rod Hood has given Brandon McDonald a little push, but the team’s early scouting of corners for next year’s college draft convinces me that neither may be seen as the long-term answer there. A bigger question at this point is at safety, where the team has little depth behind starter Brodney Pool, whose ability to play is in question following last week’s game. Pool has a concussion history and the team has not revealed why he appeared to woozily walk off the field. If Pool is not available, the Browns defense will suffer.

Wimbley has a chance to perform better this year for a couple of reasons. The first is that the team has improved their consistency and depth in the defensive line, with C.J. Mosely providing a solid addition, and Wimbley needs that in order to have a lane to the quarterback. Secondly, the coaching staff has shown much more enthusiasm for moving Wimbley around from right to left, which is something Romeo Crennel rarely did. By making Wimbley’s position on the field less predictable, he has the possibility for greater success. It will ultimately be up to him to take advantage of his role in this defense.

Q: The NFL is notorious for having teams go from worst-to-first. In the AFC North, Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champ, Cincinnati is starting to become a popular darkhorse candidate for improvement with Carson Palmer back, and though they seem to be terrible every other season and lost Rex Ryan, Baltimore is still Baltimore. Put on your optimists hat (if you can): why is not an outlandish idea for Browns fans to dream of an AFC North title? (Or is there simply no reason to do so?)

Barry McBride:Â It’s always possible, as long as meteors and comets are around that could possibly smash into Pittsburgh or Baltimore while their respective teams are practicing. Or, better yet, when the two face off in the same stadium.

Outside of that, it’s going to be a rough road for a Browns team that still needs to show that it can get consistent performance on offense and stop the run effectively on defense. Three possibly optimistic signs: (1) This team did go 10-6 just a couple of years ago, so there’s more talent than is obvious from last year’s 4-12 record; (2) Barring the loss of Pool. they could always get lucky with injuries, which is always the great unknown going into every season; and, (3) Mangini did manage to turn the Jets around during his first year as head coach.

An 8-8 season is not totally unreasonable, but I still believe that the team has a significant uphill battle ahead of them. They face six tough games within the division, and will have to have a large number of things go right for them in order to make noise in the AFC North.

Thanks for the great questions!!

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[Editor's Note: And we thank Barry McBride for taking the time to answer our questions. Â Now that you've enjoyed the Q&A, hop on over to the OBR and sign up!]

* – Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson photo credit: Getty via FanNation

Filed Under: Featured Column, NFL Tagged With: barry mcbride, brady quinn, Brady Quinn-Derek Anderson QB Battle, brandon mcdonald, braylon edwards, brian robiskie, Cleveland Browns, D'Qwell Jackson, derek anderson, eric mangini, eric wright, jamal lewis, James Davis, jerome harrison, Mohammed Massaquoai, NFL, OBR, Orange & Brown Report, shaun rogers

Hot Button: Could (and Should) James Davis End Up Starting at RB for the Browns?

August 27, 2009 By Jerod Morris 1 Comment

(This is the first edition of a new feature here at MSF that we are calling the “Hot Button.” We are calling it that for two reasons. First, because it will involve me or someone else analyzing an important, potentially controversial topic that is germane to Midwest sports discussion. Second, and perhaps most importantly, it is sponsored by our good friends at American Button Machines, the button maker capital of the Internet. See the connection? I figured you would. Now onto this week’s Hot Button…)

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James Davis Fantasy: 2009 outlook, playing time, projection One of the most interesting stories to come out of Cleveland Browns training camp this year has been the unexpected emergence of 6th round draft pick James Davis as a potentially integral part of the Browns’ 2009 offense.

With Jamal Lewis seeming to be firmly entrenched as the starter despite his advancing age, and Eric Mangini pledging early in camp to get more touches for Jerome Harrison, it appeared that Davis would provide nice depth and a body on special teams, but little else.

Then he ran 80+ yards for a TD against Detroit’s backups and seemingly overnight there was chatter that he could end up as the starter.

Yesterday, Patrick McManamon of the Akron Beacon-Journal posed the question “Do the Browns have a running back controvery?” His answer was a resounding…maybe.

The Browns could have a couple of very interesting decisions in the near future.

One is at quarterback. Which we all pretty much know about.

The other, though, is at running back where rookie James Davis might be making a push to unseat Jamal Lewis.

Far-fetched? Perhaps.

But a certain team that makes its living running the ball extremely well in the shade of the Rocky Mountains has had great success with late-round running backs.

I am sure that all Browns fans are excited about the potential that James Davis has flashed. And Eric Mangini has spoken glowingly of his rookie, which I thought was a little unexpected but certainly nice to hear. Still, there are some reasons for caution, and no one should be writing Jamal Lewis’ Browns epitaph just yet.

First off, many a running back has had a strong preseason, especially playing in the later quarters, and not seen it translate to the regular season. We need to see James Davis succeed against other teams’ first team defenses before we book his ticket for the Pro Bowl. Remove the 81-yard run from his impressive line against the Lions (12 carries, 116 yards, TD) and Davis’ stats look far more pedestrian: 11 carries, 35 yards.Â

True, the ability to take carries to the house from long distances is a desirable trait for a running back to have, and certainly something that Jamal Lewis now lacks, but Davis’ 81-yard scamper may have been more of an anomaly than something we will see regularly. According to his pre-draft Scouts Inc. profile, Davis’ straight-line speed is above average but not elite. While Scouts Inc is by no means the gospel, it is further reason to at least temper expectations that Davis will be regularly running up and down the field in the regular season.

Additionally, there is an important part of the running back role that many fans (myself included) forget about sometimes in our zeal to see a young guy or backup get on the field: pass blocking.Â Once again, looking at his Scouts Inc profile, Davis is criticized for not being great in this area:

Has shown the ability to catch the ball when facing the QB and is a solid underneath dump-off option. However, he lacks ideal experience catching the ball, he struggles to adjust to ball thrown outside of his frame and he is not a homerun threat after the catch. Shows adequate awareness in pass protection and flashes the ability to hold ground against blitzing defenders. However, he’s not very physical at the point of attack and doesn’t work as hard as he should to sustain.

This jives with reports I’ve seen and heard from people who have attended Browns training camp. Everyone has lauded James Davis for being extremely impressive as a runner, but are concerned that his blocking is not quite up to snuff. Certainly opponents will attempt take advantage of this with blitzes, which could leave Davis as the last line of defense to protect whoever is playing QB (at least we have two!).

Thus, especially early in the season, Davis being on the field could very well be a tip-off to the defense that we plan to run the ball or throw a quick pass. This would conceivably add more defenders to the box and potentially limit Davis’ effectiveness and the offense overall.Â

Now that I have said all of this, and highlighted what I see as the glaring questions/weaknesses surrounding James Davis, let me also say this: for the Browns to have a successful season, James Davis will have to be a major part of it. We saw how poorly the Browns’ offense played last year, and how much it was hamstrung by a lack of play-makers. the Browns will need the spring that Davis appears to have in his step to put a more dynamic unit on the field in ’09.

At one time, Jamal Lewis was an explosive runner with the ability to maul people and run away from them. Those days, however, are long gone. While Lewis still runs hard and is a solid short-yardage back, he is slow to the hole and lacks any semblance of breakaway speed. He can churn out 4-5 yard carries on a good day, but rarely is going to move the chains if the distance to the marker is outside of that amount.

Having James Davis, a young running back with fresh legs and some burst, can be an excellent complement to the bruising Lewis. Sprinkle in Jerome Harrison – whose production with limited opportunities should not be forgotten -Â as a runner and receiver, and the Browns have the makings of a solid running back trio that can keep eachother fresh and offer varying looks to defenses.

James Davis may very well prove to be the every down back of the future for the Browns; and what a steal that would be, getting him in the 6th round. For 2009, however, the Browns and their fans will most likely be best served by Davis playing a role in which he gets 10-15 carries, Lewis gets a similar number, and Jerome Harrison gets 8-10 touches (carries and catches).

So rather than a controversy, let’s call it a committee. The Giants rode “Earth, Wind, and Fire” (Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward) all the way to a Super Bowl and then to another solid season last year. With more and more teams moving to 2-3 back committees to provide different looks and keep legs fresh throughout the year, it may (and probably should) be something that the Browns look to do as well.Â

Next season, with Lewis likely gone and a full year to evaluate Davis, we can start discussing who “the starter” is. For this year, let’s enjoy the addition of what looks like another solid backfield option and hope that James Davis is what he appears that he may be: a solid building block for the future of the Eric Mangini era in Cleveland.

Bonus James Davis fantasy projection: As stated, it certainly looks more and more like James Davis will become an integral part of the Browns running game. And we’ve all seen enough rookie running backs produce to know that you shouldn’t avoid them like you do rookie receivers. A talented running back behind a decent O-line can usually come in and have success right away.Â

With Lewis and Harrison in the mix as well, however, I would not expect anything close to what Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson did last year (barring injuries to Lewis and/or Harrison). Still, James Davis is worth drafting in the later rounds and should at least have some value as a bye week fill-in. I look for him to get 125-150 carries on the season and between 550-675 yards with 3 or 4 scores.Â

Obviously if he starts getting 15-20 carries a game, he becomes a possible #3/flex starter or even a #2 depending on the matchup. But I would draft him hoping for that kind of production, not expecting it.

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The Hot Button is sponsored by American Button Machines, the premier online source for button machine and button press enthusiasts, including supplies for fabric buttons, photo buttons, pinback buttons, as well as badge reels. They also sell a variety of circle cutters and will teach you how to make a button at their website or on their button making blog.

* – James Davis photo credit: Scott Shaw / Plain-Dealer via Cleveland.com

Filed Under: Featured Column, NFL Tagged With: Cleveland Browns, eric mangini, jamal lewis, James Davis, James Davis fantasy, jerome harrison, NFL

2009 Fantasy Football Sleeper Pick: Jerome Harrison of the Cleveland Browns

August 6, 2009 By Jerod Morris 5 Comments

Last year, there were a few common collective refrains heard from Browns fans:

Damnit!
Catch the ball Braylon!
Son of a bitch!
Man I hate the Steelers.
Get the ball to Jerome Harrison!

Jerome Harrison 2009 fantasy football sleeper - projections, stats, and role in offense I’m sure there were others, but those are the first five that pop into my head; and it is the last of those five that I am going to deal with this morning, because it could have a decidedly positive impact on your fantasy football teams this year.

Last season, the Browns were expected to have a dynamic offense after what seemed like a breakout 2007 season. Unfortunately, 2007 began to look more and more like an anomaly — the function of a weak schedule and low expectations — with each passing week. Â Sure, injuries played some part it. Mostly though, the Browns simply shot themselves in the foot time after time with dropped passes, poor execution, unimaginative play calling, and an overall dearth of offensive leadership.

But there was one bright spot: Jerome Harrison, the diminutive running back who got very few carries, but always seemed to do something productive with the ball when he got it.

Jerome Harrison comes into the 2009 season as a three-year veteran, having been drafted in the 5th round of the 2006 draft out of Washington State. If you just glance at his career totals, you will likely be underwhelmed:

77 carries
448 yards
1 rushing TD
23 catches
182 receiving yards
1 receiving TD

A couple of years ago, that would have been a decent three-week stretch for LaDainian Tomlinson.Â

If you break the numbers down a little further, however, you begin to see that Harrison’s overall lack of production is not necessarily his fault. A player can only do so much with the chances he is given, and Harrison has only had 100 touches in his NFL career. With a 5.8 career yard per carry average (7.2 in 2008) and a 7.9 yard per reception average, Harrison has at least made the most of his chances.

And what makes Jerome Harrison a sleeper pick for 2009 is that, barring injury, his touches will undoubtedly increase.

Pat Kirwan’s Sirius NFL Radio show was at Browns training camp yesterday and I was able to catch a portion of it during my drive home. They interviewed Jamal Lewis and Eric Mangini, both of him talked about Harrison as a key part of the plans for 2009. Lewis went so far as to say what all Browns fans were saying last year: namely, that Harrison was underutilized by the previous coaching staff. Mangini spoke glowingly of Harrison’s work ethic, talent, and aptitude in picking up the new offense.

What remains to be seen is whether these positive training camp reports actually translate into additional touches for Harrison. Last year, we heard the Browns coaches speak on more than one occasion about getting Harrison more involved. Then Sunday would roll around and Harrison would carry the ball 4 times for 25 yards in the first half and never see it again. Honestly, it was mind-boggling.Â

There are a couple of reasons why I think Lewis and Mangini were doing more than just paying lip service to an increased role for Harrison:

Jamal Lewis isn’t getting any younger

Jamal Lewis will be 30 years old on opening day, and there are few cliches used more often in fantasy football and real football circles than the notion that running backs fall of a cliff once they reach the age of 30. Of course, the reason it is so often uttered is that the statistical evidence, for the most part, backs it up.

After a solid 2007 season in which he gained 1,304 yards on 298 carries, Lewis regressed last season to 1,002 yards. Part of the reason was that he did not get as many 4th quarter carries with the Browns often finding themselves behind in games. Another part of the reason for his decline was an almost full yard drop his average per carry.

If the Browns can throw the ball more effectively this year to open up the running lanes, and not be playing catch up in so many games, Lewis could bounce back to have a better season. However, with 2,399 career carries there is only so much tread left on the tires. If the Browns want their workhorse to be fresh late in the season and in the 4th quarter when they need to nurse a lead, they will have to manage his workload throughout the year and during games.

Enter Jerome Harrison.

I highly doubt that we will see a repeat of the almost 10:1 split in carries between Lewis and Harrison. More than likely, it will be somewhere in the 7:3 range, with rookie James Davis perhaps picking up a few here and there as well. Either way, the age of Jamal Lewis will compel the Browns coaching staff to throw a few carries elsewhere, and Harrison is the next in line to grab them.

Eric Mangini knows how to get the most out of quicker, undersized backs

Over Eric Mangini’s last two seasons in New York, his Jets teams featured a two-headed running back attack led by feature back Thomas Jones and his understudy/kick returner extraordinaire Leon Washington. In 2007, when he was 29, Thomas Jones carried the ball 310 times with Washington picking up 71 carries. In 2008, when he was 30, Thomas Jones’ workload was slightly reduced to 290 carries, with Washington grabbing 76 of his own.Â Where Leon Washington made an additional dent was in the passing game, catching 36 balls for 213 yards in 2007 and 47 balls for 355 yards in 2008.

What does this mean for Jerome Harrison?

Well let’s say that the Browns employ a similar split in touches between Lewis and Harrison as Mangini’s Jets teams did with Jones and Washington, using Harrison’s career averages per touch as our guide.

74 carries at 5.8 yards per carry = 429 yards
42 receptions at 7.9 yards per reception = 331.8

Considering that Harrison scored 1 TD in his 34 carries last year, along with 1 TD in 12 receptions, extrapolated out over the touches listed above we could optimistically pencil Harrison in for 5-6 TDs.

Now, is around 750 total yards and 5-6 TDs going to make Jerome Harrison as fantasy stud? Not at all. And with more touches, he likely won’t be able to maintain a 5.8 yard per carry average. However, I think there is a good chance that Jerome Harrison could see more than 74 carries this year, and that he could still be in the 4.8-5.2 yard per carry neighborhood. And obviously if Jamal Lewis goes down with any type of injury, Harrison’s workload will only increase.

And I definitely believe that he will eclipse ESPN.com’s projection of 459 total yards.

Jerome Harrison has always produced when given the opportunity

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5’9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16.Â

Yes, Harrison is slighter of frame than most backs, but did you know that he is actually the same height and almost 10 pounds heavier than Emmitt Smith was during his playing days? This is not to say that Harrison is anywhere in the class of Smith — obviously — but Harrison should not just be dismissed off-hand as a guy without the ability to carry the load for the Browns. Â Smaller, quicker backs like Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Darren Sproles have proven as recently as last year that even though NFL defensive players get bigger by the season, smaller running backs with quickness and productive pedigrees can find significant success in the right situation.

It is good to have two backs in today’s NFL, and I think the Browns can have one of the more underrated backfields in the NFL in Lewis and Harrison if the offense rebounds to become a respectable unit in 2009. But if Lewis ever were to go down, I would feel comfortable that Jerome Harrison could produce with 15-20 carries per game and that he could be a solid #2 RB or weekly flex starter.

As it says above, he’s always produced when given the opportunity.Â

With that said, I can’t help but think that when Mangini and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll look at the tape of last year’s team they are going to realize that only one player on offense consistently made plays when he touched the ball. That player was Jerome Harrison, and it sure would have been nice if the previous regime had realized it; or, if they did realize it, if they’d actually been proactive in getting him more touches throughout the season.

With the success that teams like Tennessee and Miami had last year splitting time between two backs, I actually think that Harrison could and will get more touches than what is projected above. I would not be at all surprised to see him get 100-125 touches, approach 1,000 total yards, and find the end zone 6-7 times. Jamal Lewis will no doubt get the bulk of the goalline touches and TDs, but Harrison’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss in space will make him a valuable commodity inside the red zone on screen and swing passes. Â If he can find the end zone on a few of those passes, 6-7 TDs is not an outlandish projection in my estimation.Â

You don’t want to leave your draft with Harrison slotted to be a starter. However, once the bye weeks roll around, he will have some value as a capable flex option who will get touches and have the potential to get you double-digit fantasy points in any given week. And if you’re in a PPR league, Harrison’s ability to grab 2-3 catches per game at least ensures that you won’t come up empty at a spot Â in the worst case scenario.

So the question is where should you target Jerome Harrison in your drafts. Clearly, he is not a guy you want to even think about in the first half of a draft, nor do you need to. Â Harrison is not in Yahoo!’s Top 40 running backs for 2009 and doesn’t show up until #76 in ESPN’s running back rankings.Â His value obviously increases somewhat in a point-per-reception league, where he shows up at #192 overall in the ESPN PPR rankings.

Here is the guide I will be using when it comes to Jerome Harrison, and obviously specific rounds will depend on the number of teams in your league and how your league doles out points. (And, since I am in leagues that have other Browns fans, I may have to jump on Jerome a round or two earlier than normal.)

If I draft Jamal Lewis somewhere in rounds 5 or 6, I am definitely grabbing Harrison by round 14 as an essential handcuff.
If I am in a PPR league, I am targeting Harrison somewhere in the 13-15 range, depending on the other RBs and WRs available.
In a non-PPR league in which I do not need Harrison as a handcuff, I will try to grab him in the last couple of rounds, earlier if there has been a run on second-tier, non-starting running backs already.

Remember that fantasy football championships are won many times by the guys you draft in the later rounds that far exceed their expected or projected value. Â The later rounds are a great place to take chances on players who are one injury away from putting up big numbers, especially when the guy in front of them is a 30+ running back.

Last year, for example, I rode mid- and late-round draft picks Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton to a fantasy title. While Jerome Harrison is not going to approach the production of either of those two guys, he does have the potential to give you 9th or 10th round value with his current role in the later rounds of the draft. If he gets the chance to start at any point this season, he could potentially offer 3rd or 4th round value.

Stack a few of those guys together, along with a solid performance at the top of the draft, and you have the makings of a team with depth that can withstand the inevitable injuries you’ll endure, which will allow you to be competitive on a week-in, week-out basis.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports, Featured Column, NFL Tagged With: Cleveland Browns, eric mangini, Fantasy Football, fantasy football sleeper pick, jamal lewis, jerome harrison, Jerome Harrison fantasy football, NFL

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2009 Fantasy Football Sleeper Pick: Jerome Harrison of the Cleveland Browns

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