Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:
- March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
- MSF Bracket Challenge
- Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
- Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
- History of Final Four in Indianapolis
- Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets
——————–
This post will analyze the Villanova-Pittsburgh Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.
As you may have noticed, I have an indefatigable excitement level about this year’s NCAA Tournament and analyzing the matchups that will ultimately get us to the Final Four in Detroit. I previewed the UConn-Missouri game earlier today, and while it is a compelling matchup, it is not the game I am looking forward to most tomorrow night.
I cannot wait to see Big East rivals Pittsburgh and Villanova go at eachother for the second time this season — this time with a trip to the Final Four on the line.
Last night, Pittsburgh and Jamie Dixon earned its first trip to the Elite 8 and finally got the “can’t get past the Sweet 16″ monkey off its back. Jay Wright has taken Villanova to two Elite 8s since 2006, but the Wildcats have not reached a Final Four since their magical upset of Georgtown in 1985.
Let’s get right into the particulars of Saturday night’s Elite 8 contest between Villanova and Pittsburgh, and then analyze and predict who will come out on top.
Pittsburgh-Villanova Elite 8 Regional Final Preview and Prediction
Let’s take a look at the Game Predictor analysis first, using the same statistical categories as have been used for each Sweet 16 and Elite 8 prediction so far. (And that, for the record, have helped me to a 4-0 record so far, knock on wood, in the Sweet 16).
- Offensive Efficiency: Pittsburgh – 1.134 | Villanova – 1.075
- Defensive Efficiency: Pittsburgh – 0.943 | Villanova – 0.931
- Assist/TO Ratio: Pittsburgh – 1.520 | Villanova – 1.131
- Free Throw %: Pittsburgh – 0.673 | Villanova – 0.748
- Defensive Field Goal %: Pittsburgh – 0.408 | Villanova – 0.401
I think it is interesting to note that while many peoples’ first impressions of Big East basketball revolve around tough, physical, defensive-minded teams, both Pittsburgh and Villanova rank much higher nationally in terms of offensive efficiency than they do for defensive efficiency. Pitt is #3 in offensive efficiency in the country, while Villanova is 29. Defensively, Pitt is #61 while Villanova is #40. While both teams are obviously very solid defensively, it would be unwise to underestimate the offensive prowess of either.
Now that we’ve looked at the stats, let’s see how Game Predictor sees the game going:
- Odds to Win Game: Pittsburgh – 58.7% | Villanova – 41.3%
- Most Likely Final Score: Pittsburgh – 73.3 | Villanova – 71.1
- Odds to Cover Spread (NOVA +2): Pittsburgh – 55.1% | Villanova – 44.9%
- Confidence Level: 2 Stars
So Pitt is the relatively strong favorite by Game Predictor, holding an advantage in all three prediction categories — although the confidence level is only two stars.
I think to properly analyze this game, we need to go a little deeper and take a look at two very important factors:
- The first game these two teams played against eachother this year
- The manner in which they have moved through the NCAA Tournament
Let’s look at the latter first.
Villanova has beaten a #14 seed, a #6 seed, and a #2 seed and has done it by an average margin of victory of 18.7 points. Ironically, Villanova’s margin of victory has been increasing throughout the tournament while the seeding of their opponent has been decreasing. Considering their dismantling of UCLA and Duke, two very good steams, Villanova has probably been the most dominant team in the 2009 NCAA Tournament.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has been squeaking by against lesser competition. They struggled to put away #16 seed East Tennessee State, winning by only 10. They pulled away late from #8 seed Oklahoma State to win 84-76, and then barely beat a very good Xavier team last night 60-55. Totaled, Pitt has an average margin of victory in the tournament of 7.7 points.
Now, we have heard a lot about how Pitt grinds out games and wins close. And while that is partially true, especially against good teams, it does not tell the whole picture. For the season, Pitt won by an average margin of 13.4 points. Villanova, on the other hand, wo
n by an average margin of 10.3 points. Considering this fact, and the fact that Villanova has played a tougher tournament schedule, it is reasonable to infer than Villanova would be playing closer games in the tournament than Pitt.
Yet, Villanova has looked like a dominant team blowing out good opponents, while Pitt has looked like a very good team that just knows how to win close games. In a game as incredibly close as this one, against two teams that know eachother well, this is a big difference. Pittsburgh had the better regular season overall, but Villanova is clearly playing better basketball right now.
Before we get into the game these two played against eachother earlier this year, I want to quickly discuss free throw shooting. When I see that Villanova shoots 74.8% from the line and that Pitt shoots 67.3% from the line, a giant red flag goes up for me, especially for a game that I think will be as close as this one. One or two points may very well decide this game and Pittsburgh is the team more likely to leave those points at the free throw line.
But look at how Pitt is winning in the tournament. Against Xavier, in a very close game, Pitt shot 63.2% (12-19) from the line while Xavier shot 80% (8-10) from the line. Against Oklahoma State, another close game until the final minute, Pitt shot 65.4% from the line (17-26) while Oklahoma State was a perfect 12-12. So in both games, Pitt shot a much worse percentage, but — and it’s a big “but” — the Panthers outscored Xavier by four from the line and outscored Oklahoma State by five from the line. So while Pitt does not make as high a percentage of their free throws, they are more adept at getting chances and they play solid enough D not to give their opponent lots of chances.
And this leads us perfectly into our discussion of the first Villanova-Pittsburgh matchup from this year.
Villanova dominated Pitt 41-26 in the second half on January 28th at home in Philly, eventually winning 67-57. Guess where the game was decided?
You guessed it: at the free throw line.
Pitt shot 58.8% (10-17) while Villanova only shot 67.9%, well below their season average, but made 19-28 attempts. For a perimeter-oriented team like Villanova against a team like Pitt that has a low post presence like DeJuan Blair, these numbers are staggering. Now, I didn’t watch the game, so I have no idea if it was home cooking or if other extraneous, anomalous-type circumstances contributed to the discrepancy.
What I do know is this: if Villanova shoots 11 more free throws than Pitt on Saturday night, Villanova will win.
Here is another stat that surprised me: Villanova shot 880 free throws this season, paced by guard Scottie Reyndols’ 195. Pittsburgh only shot 684 free throws, paced by DeJuan Blair’s 156. These numbers are proof positive that it is not always low post dominance that leads to free throws. Having guards who can attack the basket, like Villanova has in Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, can actually be a much more effective way of taking control of games from the free throw line.
Another important stat from the first meeting between these two teams was the Assist/TO ratio of Levance Fields. For the season, Fields had a ratio of 3.7:1, which is absolutely magnificent. Against Villanova, Fields had 4 assists and 3 turnovers. Contrast that with what Fields has done in Pitt’s two close tournament wins so far: 9 assists, 2 turnovers against Oklahoma State; and 6 assists, 3 turnovers against Xavier. That is a ratio 3:1 over the two games.
However, here are some more ominous stats for Pitt: Duke’s Assist/TO ratio against Villanova was 7:11; UCLA’s was 14:20.
One of Pitt’s great strengths this year, led by Fields, was their 1.5:1 Assist/TO ratio. The Panthers need to protect the ball a
nd be efficient on offense against a Villanova team that has its defense clicking on all cylinders right now.
Okay, so I have painted a pretty bleak picture for Pitt so far. Then why am I torn over who to pick?
For one, Pittsburgh is better at getting easy, high percentage shots in its offense. Look at the field goal percentages on the year: 45.6% for Villanova, 47.9% for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is also a better rebounding team, grabbing an average of 2.8 more rebounds per game than Villanova. And Villanova is not as solid as Pitt at taking care of the ball, registering an Assist/TO ratio as a team of only 1.1:1. Pitt went 30-4, was a #1 seed, and had a better overall body of work than Villanova this season for a reason. These are just a few of the reasons.
But at the end of the day, what happened in November, December, January, and February means very little right now. It’s March, and in games between two teams who know eachother well, and where the margin of difference is very small, the hotter team is often the one that comes out on top.
As discussed above, Pittsburgh has played close games in the tournament and has won by getting to the line more than its opponents. In Villanova, Pitt finds a foe that got to the line almost 200 more times than the Panthers did this season. Add the fact that Villanova makes a higher percentage of its shots, and this is an advantage to Villanova.
In addition, to summarize from above, Pitt’s success has been predicated on taking care of the ball and getting high percentage shots. Villanova has held two good teams, Duke and UCLA, to a 21:31 Assist/TO ratio and a combined field goal percentage of 33.6%. I expect Pitt to perform better than Duke and UCLA did in these two areas, but I’m not sure they can reach their season norms of 1.5:1 and 47.9%. To beat a team as hot and as confid
ent as Villanova is right now, I think Pitt need’s to at least get to close to their season averages in these two areas.
In the end, I think it all adds up to a Villanova victory. I originally picked Pitt in my bracket, but upon deeper analysis I think this matchup favors the Wildcats. Considering the manner of their victory over Pitt earlier this year, and the manner in which the two teams have won in the tournament, I just do not see Villanova allowing Pittsburgh to win playing the style the Panthers have been playing. I would not be shocked if Pittsburgh wins, and I would not put ever put a dime on a game like this between two conference foes because too many variables could tip the scales one direction or the other in a single 40-minute game.
But my recommendation would be to definitely take Villanova with the points, because I think Villanova wins straight up.
But not before Nova and Pitt treat us to a terrific 40 minutes of hard-fought, well-played, entertaining basketball.
Loading ...
Reggie Redding/DeJuan Blair photo credit: AP Photo/Michael Perez
Email the author of this post: jerod@midwestsportsfans.com
