Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice, Projections, and Roster Q&A

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Jon will have the overall Week 12 start/sit post ready to go for tomorrow morning, but with three games on Thanksgiving Thursday I thought it might be helpful to do a special start/sit column for those games.

So in this post I’ll do just that, providing analysis and recommendations for the key players you need to decide on before Turkey Day.
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Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em Sit Em Picks and Player Projections for Hillis, Hernandez, Dez, Stevie J, and more

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Is 2011 going to be the highest scoring fantasy season of all time?  All signs indicate that it could be.  Last season, seven players finished the season with more than 270 points (ESPN Standard Scoring).  After four weeks this season, a staggering 18 players were on pace to beat that mark…and nine of them were QBs.

Like I said at the beginning of the season, gone are the days of fantasy rule by the RBs.  Of those 18 players, only 5 are RBs…simply a staggering thought to anyone living in 2006 or before.

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Fantasy Football Week 3: Stats That Matter Involving Cam Newton/Steve Smith, Miles Austin/Jason Witten, and Arian Foster/Ben Tate

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When I came up with the fantasy team name It’s Not A Rookie, It’s A Cam Newton this year, it was really just a play off of It Not A Cookie, It’s A Fig Newton. I didn’t realize that the Panthers were drafting a new team when they picked Newton, but the kid has been a machine.

He has not played like a rookie at all and has inspired me to look at some stats that matter and may help you make decisions this coming week and throughout the season.

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Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice, Player Projections, and Roster Q&A

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Week One is finally here. You have done all the research (you know, the usual: waiver wire picksinjury updatescomparing QBs to Michael Jackson songs…), you have gone through your draft, and most importantly, you have started talking smack to everyone in your league.

You only have one job left to do: start the right guys.

Nothing could be worse than having an awesome team…on your bench.

Each and every one of us has a fantasy sob story or two, and it’s almost a guarantee that one of them revolves around sitting the wrong guy.

So who are you going to start this week?

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Fantasy Football TE Rankings for 2011: Top 12 Tight Ends Plus the “Wild Cards” Worth Keeping An Eye On

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The number of elite tight ends has fallen dramatically, but that doesn’t mean you still can’t get great value in later rounds.

If you really want to make a splash in the tight end market, make sure you move early and grab one of the Big Three.  However, if you want to wait and try to maximize your value, there are no less than nine fantastic options that can be gotten for the cheap.

Here are your top twelve Tight Ends for 2011, along with some guys on the fringe that are definitely worth keeping an eye on – especially if you already have good feeling about one of them.

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Fantasy Football: Why Tashard Choice is Fantasy Playoff Gold

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Every year there is a player who emerges late in the season to propel a mediocre team to fantasy football championship around the world…

Hey, remember Jerome Harrison? You probably do if you had him on your fantasy team… I sure as hell do seeing as he single-handedly knocked me out of the playoffs last year.

So maybe you just snuck into the playoffs or you’re a good team who happens to have some brutal match-ups (i.e. Cedric Benson against the Steelers) – well you’re in luck because you have a Choice – crash out the playoffs in a blaze of glory or make the only logical Choice there is – add Tashard.

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What I Learned From My First Fantasy Football Draft: I Love Tom Brady and Felix Jones

After spending a relaxing week of vacation in the Keys, then spending most of yesterday twirling in the inbox maelstrom that awaited me upon my return, I am officially back. And there is no better way to jump right back into sports and blogging than participating in a fantasy football draft.

Last night was my first draft of many over the next couple of weeks. This morning I am going to regale you with what I hope are educational and enlightening nuggets of knowledge and insight that drove my picks as the draft motored along. 

Let’s get right to it.

First, the league particulars so you have a frame of reference:

  • 12-team, non-keeper, H2H, PPR
  • Starting roster: 2 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 W/TE, 1 W/R, 2 K, 2 DEF
  • Stat notes: 6 pts per passing TD; 1 pt per reception, Return yards counted

Fantasy Football Analysis, Projections, Sleepers: Felix Jones, Tom Brady, Chris Henry, Vernon Davis, LeSean McCoy

And here is my roster, with the draft position (I had the 8th and 15th picks to start) in parentheses:

  • QB Tom Brady (1st pick, 8th overall)
  • QB Donovan McNabb (3rd, 28th)
  • QB Shaun Hill (14th, 145th)
  • QB Kerry Collins (18th, 185th)
  • RB Frank Gore (2nd, 15th)
  • RB Felix Jones (7th, 78th)
  • RB LeSean McCoy (10th, 105th)
  • RB Darren Sproles (12th, 125th)
  • RB Tim Hightower (15th, 158th)
  • WR Hines Ward (5th, 48th)
  • WR Anthony Gonzalez (6th, 55th)
  • WR Torry Holt (8th, 85th)
  • WR Steve Smith – NYG (11th, 118th)
  • WR Chris Henry (16th, 165th)
  • TE Jason Witten (4th, 35th)
  • TE Vernon Davis (13th, 138th)
  • K Matt Prater (17th, 178th)
  • DEF New York Jets (9th, 98th)
  • DEF San Francisco 49ers (19th, 198th)

And yes, I know I need another kicker, but for some reason the Yahoo! system wasn’t letting us draft a second kicker. Oh well. Kickers are a crapshoot anyway.

Before I analyze a few of the players individually, here a few picks after which I smiled with that smug feeling we all get when we think we’ve really made a good value pick: Felix Jones, LeSean McCoy, Chris Henry, Vernon Davis.

And, just for good measure, here a few picks from other people that really pissed me off because it removed someone from the board a pick or two before I was targeting them: Drew Brees (I picked Brady), Randy Moss (I picked Gore), Ronnie Brown (I picked McNabb), Percy Harvin and Ted Ginn Jr (I picked Steve Smith, the Giants one), Ahmad Bradshaw (I picked V Davis).

Now that we have all of that out of the way, here are a few of the important lessons that I am taking away from my first fantasy football draft of the 2009 season:

I am bullish on Tom Brady

I know that Tom Brady is coming off a pretty nasty knee injury, and as fantasy football owners we have all been (rightfully) conditioned to be wary of using high draft picks on guys coming off of injury, but…

Fantasy Football Analysis, Projections, Draft Value - Tom Brady, New England PatriotsIt’s Tom F’ing Brady. 

In a 2-QB league, I knew I wanted to get either Brees or Brady with the 8th pick since the elite RBs would be gone. Brees obviously comes with less risk and is stellar every season, but Brady is the one guy that I think has a legitimate shot to surpass Brees’ production this year. All you have to do is look at Brady’s last full season in the league to see what he’s capable of producing. That is why I also targeted Randy Moss in the second round, although my dad got to him first.

I’d been going back and forth in my mind about whether or not I consider Brady a first round pick. In a standard 1-QB league, probably not. But he would still be the 2nd QB I’d want. In a 2-QB league I definitely think he is a first round pick and my lack of hesitation in clicking the “Draft” button proved to me that I’m confident in Brady’s ability for a strong rebound season. And you should be too.

Felix Jones has the potential to be a mid-round pick that produces top-round value

Maybe it’s listening to Dallas radio every day and hearing the perpetually negative Dallas talking heads always gushing about Felix Jones. Or perhaps it’s the memory of his scintillating but sparse performances as a rookie in which he seemed to create a big play TD every game until he got hurt. Or quite possibly it’s the memory of how Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson turned into great late-round picks for me last year at RB.

Fantasy Football Analysis, Projections, Draft Value - Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys - Sleeper

Either way, for those reasons and many more, I am extremely high on Felix Jones this season.

For goodness sakes, Felix Jones averaged 8.9 yards per carry last year as a rookie.  Granted, he only got 30 carries in six games…but 8.9 yards per carry. He also scored 3 TDs in the midst of those 30 carries. I know that it’s a small sample size, but the Cowboys had already started to increase Jones’ role in the offense before he got hurt in Week 6. This season, they are committed to increasing his role even more.

There is already talk that Felix Jones may add punt returning to his list of duties, and from everything I have seen and read the Cowboys want to get him 12-15 touches per game. For a lot of players that might not be enough to secure an every week starting position on fantasy rosters, but for a guy with the breakaway ability of Jones it’s plenty.

Sure, he’ll have a few weeks where he might not generate huge numbers, but that is not unlike a lot of players. This is a guy who does not need goalline carries to get touchdowns — which is good, because Marion Barber will get those — and a guy who plays for a team that is seeking playmakers to replace the lost production of Terrell Owens.

It sounds like the Cowboys are going to be committed to running the ball more this year and to lightening the load on Marion Barber somewhat, especially in early in games, so he is fresh to close them out in the 4th quarter. That opens the door for Felix Jones to get his touches, and I have a feeling Jones will get more and more as the season progresses and he proves himself to be the most dynamic playmaker on a Cowboys’ offense that may struggle to get big plays out of its passing game.

I don’t think Felix Jones will produce 1st or 2nd round value — although he could if Marion Barber were to get hurt — but I do think he can be a solid #2 running back that produces like a 3rd or 4th round pick. I might have taken him a bit early in the 7th round, but only because I knew my brother wanted him too. My advice would be to start targeting Jones around the late 7th to early 8th round, and then reap the rewards of his big play TDs all season long.

Those two picks — Brady in the 1st and Felix Jones in the 7th — were the two I felt the strongest about coming out of last night’s draft.  Here a few other quick-hit thoughts regarding my players:

I think Donovan McNabb could be primed for one of his best seasons, assuming he stays healthy. The Eagles have a solid backup to the oft-dinged and now old Brian Westbrook in rookie LeSean McCoy (more on him later), plus they added another playmaking speedster in Jeremy Maclin to go along with DeSean Jackson. Not to mention, Michael Vick may get out there in some wildcat formations which could lead to some unconventional yardage or TDs for McNabb.

Something about McNabb just seems more at ease, more confident this offseason. And with the Eagles playing for the memory of Jim Johnson, and with the bitter taste of last year’s NFC Championship Game loss, I think they will have a solid season…with McNabb leading them every step of the way.

Shaun Hill is sneaky good, by the way, and makes a solid late-round pick as a backup QB.  Did you know that in 12 career starts Hill has a 90.5 passer rating? He should get the nod in San Francisco and be able to get you through a bye week or short-term injury to your starter.

Fantasy Football Analysis, Projections, Draft Value - Donovan McNabb and LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia EaglesI mentioned LeSean McCoy earlier.  I really like his potential this year as a possible Steve Slaton type back. Remember last season when Slaton started out as Ahman Green’s backup and was considered too small to be an everydown back? Green spent the whole season injured and ineffective and now Slaton is being picked in the first 10-15 selections. That could be McCoy next season.

McCoy’s value obviously goes down if Brian Westbrook stays healthy all year, but with Westbrook already digned up and getting up there in age, it’s not the most outlandish of bets that Westbrook misses some time this year. When he does, McCoy will be there to put up similar numbers as a dual threat back. Plus, McCoy has value even when Westbrook is healthy. The Eagles are going to reduce Westbrook’s workload this year in an effort to try and keep him fresh and healthy. McCoy can produce as a 3rd RB or flex player with 10-15 touches per game.

If you can get McCoy in the 9th to 11th rounds I think you could have yourself a potential Slaton/Chris Johnson type late round steal.

Wide receiver appears to be the weakness of my team, but after the consistent production of Hines Ward I think I have three guys that could significantly trump their production from a year ago.

Anthony Gonzalez enters his third season (the typical breakout year for WRs) and is now firmly entrenched as the #2 WR behind Reggie Wayne. I think Gonzalez is primed for at least 75-80 catches (solid in a PPR league) and should grab 5-7 TDs. 

Torry Holt is getting older and had a terrible year last season in St. Louis, but I see him having a resurgence in Jacksonville.  He is their clear #1 WR and all of the training camp reports say that he has quickly developed a rapport with David Garrard. Plus, Jacksonville has no one else at WR. Holt won’t be the Holt of old, but could put up solid #2 WR numbers. I like him for 80-90 catches and the wily vet could find his way into the endzone 7-8 times as well.

Steve Smith of the Giants is another third year receiver who could have a breakout year. He quietly grabbed 57 balls last year, but only for a 10.1 yard average and 1 TD. He is not a big play guy, nor will he probably score a lot of TDs. But with Plaxico Burress gone and the Giants lacking proven receiving threats on the outside, Eli Manning will probably go to Smith a lot. He has more value in a PPR league and could grab 75-85 balls and get in the endzone a few times. Not bad for a bye week fill-in, #4 WR.

And watch out for Chris Henry in Cincinnati. I know the guy is a knucklehead, but he’s also extremely talented, has Carson Palmer back at QB, and there is a 90-100 catch void with TJ Houshmandzadeh’s departure. Plus, Henry is apparently a “changed man” this year.  We’ll see about that, but guys with proven 50-60 catch, 6-8 TD ability are worthy of late-round fliers, which is why I took one on Henry.

Obviously I love getting Jason Witten, even in the 4th round, because he will be Tony Romo’s #1 target this season. And Witten has more value in a PPR league than a non-PPR. But I also think I may have plucked a top-5 tight end in the 13th round by picking Vernon Davis.

Yes, Davis has proven himself to be a bit of a diva and has failed to fulfill the vast potential that made him a #1 pick. But he still grabbed 52 balls and scored 4 times last year. He is also another guy with a checkered past that appears to be taking his profession more seriously this year. As with Chris Henry, we’ll see. But on a team that lacks great WRs, the tight end will see lots of opportunities in SF.

And for the record, look at Tony Gonzalez’s career stats. It wasn’t really until his third year that he broke out (76 catches, 11 TDs after only 4 TDs in his first two years). Targeting talented pass catchers in their third seasons is a proven strategy for finding sleeper success, and Vernon Davis is a guy you can get cheap that could far outperform his draft position.

Finally, I hate the New York Jets but I love the potential of their defense this year. Not only should they have a healthy Kris Jenkins and be buoyed by the presence of Lito Sheppard opposite Derrelle Revis, but they have former Ravens DC Rex Ryan calling the shots this year. Even if the Jets give up points, they will be aggressive. That means lots of sacks and lots of forced turnovers. Those are the types of defenses that can offer value even when they give up higher scores. I think the Jets could easily finish the year as a top-5, maybe even a top-3, fantasy defense.

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Remember, to get any and all fantasy questions answered in a quick and timely fashion, jump on over to the MSF Fantasy Football Discussion Forum, where we are waiting to help you out with your draft preparation. And I know that owe you the other half of my Bust/Sleeper column, so look for that later this week.

* – Tom Brady photo credit: Noon Time Sports

* – Felix Jones photo credit: Dallas Observer Sportatorium

* – Donovan McNabb and LeSean McCoy photo credit: Sean Simmers, The Patriot News via PennLive

LOTD: Jason Witten Loses Helmet And Some Respect, Needs to Step Into Leadership Role

LOTD: Jason Witten Loses Helmet, Must Gain Respect and Be a LeaderToday’s LOTD comes from one of our affiliate sites Dallas Sports Fans, and deals with Jason Witten, who has received his fair share of both positive and negative press this season.

There is the infamous video and pictures of Jason Witten losing his helmet and continuing to rumble down the field against the Philadelphia Eagles, proving Witten’s toughness. But there have also been rumblings recently that many teammates, most notably Terence Newman, are not happy that Jason Witten went public with the whole Romo-Witten-TO drama earlier this season.

As Robert puts it over at DSF, Jason Witten seems to have all of the requisite qualities to be an effective leader for the leadership-starved Cowboys; now he needs to actually step up and be one:

Every truly great team needs a senior player to step up and lead from time to time. Look at Peyton Manning for the Colts, or Brett Favre for the Packers. Even Ray Lewis stands out among the Ravens as a leader. Every one of these teams is a solid team, and each one has a player step up as a leader.

This begs the question, where was the senior player in the Dallas Cowboys this season. When considering the roster, Jason Witten stands out as a senior player with a tremendous amount of respect.

However Jason Witten, the man who is fearless enough to keep running after he loses his helmet, was too quiet when the team really needed him. Witten is as widely respected for his abilities as Owens, or any other player in the league, however when push came to shove, Jason Witten did not assert himself as a positive influence on the team.

Is Jason Witten getting a bad rap in Dallas? – (Dallas Sports Fans)

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And now some other great links from around the sports blogosphere today:

Who do you want to be Browns GM and head coach? (hint: we agree, except for the Pioli thing) – (Waiting for Next Year)

Better Know a Blogger: An interview with Dashiell Bennett of Deadspin – (MLive.com)

Marbury to Celtics Could Happen Soon – (Reds Army)

Mike Patrick says “Georgia is just pulling a Plaxico. They just keep shooting themselves.” – (The Big Lead)

We know SEC fans crazy, and this Auburn fan proves it – (Fire Perno)

Michael Crabtree already preparing for NFL – (Dallas Basketball)

NCAA and the Sports Books: Working Together for us – (Cleveland Frowns)

Robbie Madison achieves the impossible, jumping his motorcycle over 120 feet to the top of the Arc de Triomphe at the Paris Las Vegas and then jumped back down – (Josh Q. Public)