Jim Brown, Joshua Cribbs Voice Support for Eric Mangini

jim-brown-joshua-cribbs-comments-on-eric-mangini

What a difference a couple of weeks (and wins) can make.

Sitting at 1-11, the conventional wisdom was that Eric Mangini was basically coaching out the string, essentially a placeholder for whoever the Browns future “football czar” were to choose to be the new head coach.

After two straight victories – importantly, one of them against arch-nemesis Pittsburgh – two of the most influential voices in Browns Nation have now publicly pledged their support for Mangini.

None other than Joshua Cribbs and Jim Brown.

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More Reaction to Jamal Lewis’ Theory For Browns Croppy Play in 2009

mangini-crops

No folks, that’s not a type there in title. Croppy is the intended word.

And the beautiful photoshop work featured in this post is the fruit on our own Ryan Russell‘s labor of Browns love, in response to the most colorful and nonsensical figurative part of Jamal Lewis’ pre-practice rant about Eric Mangini earlier today.

Via the OBR:

“If you look at this like it’s a farm, we (the players) are just the crops. We’re just the crops. We’re just the crops. You’ve got to take care of your crops. You’ve got to nurture them. And if you don’t, when it comes harvest time, your crop isn’t going to be any good.”

Full size picture (Eric Mangini included!) after the jump.

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Can You Feel the Love in Berea? (Update)

Very interesting comments over at The OBR today from Browns offensive captain Jamal Lewis regarding his head coach.

Let me see how to put this as nicely and succinctly as possible: it doesn’t sound like Jamal is the biggest fan of the Mangenius.

Berea Report: Lewis Rips Mangini — (The OBR)

Can’t wait for Monday!

Update: Our friends at Cleveland Frowns have responded to Lewis’ comments. And we’ve responded to it all.

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Led by Lewis, Browns Defeat Bills 6-3 Despite Awful Anderson (Ratliff Time?)

jamal-lewis

The previously winless Cleveland Browns defeated the one win Buffalo Bills in an offensive-less game earlier today, with the final score finishing at 6-3.

The highlights were not plentiful, but yes, there were a few.

Let’s begin with the return of Jamal Lewis. Early in the week, Lewis was not even considered to be able to play versus Buffalo because of a lingering hamstring injury. Later in the week, Lewis was possibly going to play, but would be eased into action. And then here is the Jamal Lewis stat line from Sunday: 117 yards on 31 carries.

I’m glad to see they took it easy on him.

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Jamal Lewis Doubtful, Jerome Harrison to See Increased Role

It’s time for some quick-hit NFL and fantasy updates. We’ll start in Cleveland, where there is news regarding Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison that is underrated in its importance.

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Jamal Lewis, Phil Dawson Injury Update: Both Out Sunday v Ravens

With the Cleveland Browns reeling at 0-2, and entering tomorrow’s clash with Baltimore as prohibitive underdogs (13.5 points), Browns fans have been expecting a long and perhaps demoralizing game Sunday afternoon.

Now that two of the franchise’s most productive players this decade are not playing, the Browns chances of pulling off a shocking road upset look even more bleak.

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Browns-Vikings Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

adrian-peterson-vikings

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - ticketsI can’t wait for tomorrow.

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009′s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - ticketsUnfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:
browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - tickets
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - tickets2008:

  • Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
  • Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

  • Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
  • Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

  • Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
  • Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

  • Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
  • Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

  • The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
  • The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007′s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

  • Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
  • James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
  • The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - ticketsHowever, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

  • Brandon McDonald led the team with five
  • Sean Jones had four
  • Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
  • Mike Adams had two
  • Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

*********

* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Jamal Lewis Makes Final Cut and Remains A Cleveland Brown

Jamal Lewis still a Brown, makes 53-man rosterAfter reports came out of Cleveland that the Browns might cut Jamal Lewis, he remains a Brown after the team trimmed down to the 53-man roster.

I can’t figure out the motive behind the thought of cutting Lewis.  Eric Mangini’s plan to establish any kind of ground game would be out the window with the loss of Lewis.  Were they serious, or was this a carefully planned media release to motivate Jamal Lewis?

Although rookie running back James Davis and Jerome Harrison have shown promise at the running back position, they at this point are only nice complements to Jamal Lewis.

In the preseason, Lewis demonstrated the ability to smash the hole with violence and displayed that he still has his hard-nosed running style.  I am, as any Browns fan should be, ecstatic that Lewis is still a Brown.

Kurt Fraschetti

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Reports: Browns Might Cut Jamal Lewis

Browns might cut RB Jamal LewisI have three words for Eric Mangini and George Kokinis if they are seriously considering cutting veteran running back Jamal Lewis:

Don’t.

Do.

It.

In the Plain-Dealer this morning, Mary Kay-Cabot wonders if the Browns will do just that, despite the fact they already paid him a $3.5 million bonus this offseason and that his only backups are the current injured Jerome Harrison and 6th round rookie James Davis, who has apparently become the next Jim Brown after one 81-yard scamper against the Detroit WinlessLions.

A quick excerpt:

Could Browns running back Jamal Lewis be cut today when the Browns trim their roster to 53?

NFL sources said rumblings began a couple of days ago that Lewis, who turned 30 last week, could be one of the dozen players the Browns let go, and ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter on Friday put Lewis at the top of his list of big-name players on the bubble. Nationalfootballpost.com’s Mike Lombardi also speculated Lewis will be cut.

Among the many reasons why I think this would be a terrible move:

  1. It makes the $3.5 million already given to Lewis basically just a colossal waste of money.
  2. Lewis has done a tremendous job of accepting that his role will likely be reduced this year and has taken to mentoring Davis, who went to the same high school as Lewis. For a rookie RB, this must be invaluable.
  3. Jamal Lewis may be too old and slow to be a featured, wear-’em-down type back any more, but he can still churn out tough yards and get goalline carries. Have Jerome Harrison of James Davis proven they can do this?
  4. As much as we all want to hope that the Browns can engineer a Dolphins- or Falcons-like turnaround in 2009, the fact of the matter is that the Browns are more likely than not building for the future. Unless there is something we don’t know about Lewis’ willingness to play the role of good soldier under the regime, there is no reason to cut him and prevent Jerome and James from having his experience and leadership at their disposal.
  5. Jamal Lewis is one of the few leaders on this offense. With Brady Quinn, a first-year starter, likely to take over as the QB, why not give him the support of a veteran in the backfield who can allow Quinn to grow into his leadership role.

I could go on and on. Yes, the Browns would save some money cutting Lewis, but I think it would be a terribly myopic decision. Hopefully when the final cuts are announced, Lewis’ name will not be among them and we can put this foolish story behind us.

Peter King May Disagree, But There Are Reasons For Hope in Cleveland

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns PredictionThere are plenty of reasons to expect the Cleveland Browns to not be very good and to not win very many games in 2009.

Chief among those reasons: they are, after all, the Cleveland Browns.

There is certainly a lot of Browns hate floating around as we approach the first week of the 2009 NFL season. Peter King of SI has predicted that Cleveland will finish with the league’s worst record, 2-14, and be a game worse than even the Detroit Lions. Take a a few minutes to sample the power rankings at sites like ESPN, FoxSports, and elsewhere. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that while the Browns are not quite the worst team in the NFL, they are not too far away.

So what the hell am I thinking trying to approach a Browns 2009 season preview with the goal of disproving the conventional wisdom? Am I totally off my rocker sitting down this morning in search of legitimate reasons for why Browns fans should have hope heading into 2009?

The answer to both questions is: I’m not sure.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Cleveland Browns tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

But here I am, and here you are, and damnit, at the end of the day this is the NFL we are talking about. If a Dolphins or Falcons or Ravens fan had set out to write a similar post before last season began, they would have been looked at as fools too. And we know how that turned out.

Consider the following:

  • The Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens entered 2008 with new head coaches who had no head coaching experience. The Browns enter 2009 with a new head coach who actually has head coaching experience.
  • The Dolphins and Falcons had been bad for a while. They were not a year removed from a 10-win season, as the Browns are.
  • The Falcons and Ravens entered last year with first round rookie QBs starting. The Browns have one guy a year removed from making the Pro Bowl…who will likely be the backup. Brady Quinn, the Browns’ own first round, first-year probably starter at least enters this season with a couple of years of NFL experience under his belt.

Somehow, despite so many odds seeming to be stacked against them, the Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens all made the playoffs last year. Time and again in the NFL we see teams rise from the depths of low-to-no expectations to shock the football world by winning 9, 10, 11 games. 2007 in Cleveland was a prime example.

So no matter how bad you expect the Browns to be in 2009, remember that the Dolphins and Falcons were expected to be just as bad, if not worse, in 2008. And look where they ended up.

But simple, general, implied correlations such as what I’ve just done mean nothing. A Lions fan could say the same thing. So could a Raiders fan. It’s time to get specific. We all rationally understand, based on recent NFL history, that teams going from worst-to-first is not a freak phenomenon in the NFL.

For Browns fans — my long-suffering and frowning brethren who are desperately grasping for hope, for something legitimate to believe in heading into 2009 — what are some real and team-specific reasons why 2009 could be the season when we put the wait for next year on hold?

1 – Eric Mangini will see your 4-12 record, and raise you a playoff berth

Forgive the somewhat obtuse poker analogy, but this fact remains: Eric Mangini has already proven that he can immediately take a team from 4-12 (the Browns’ record in 2008) to the playoffs. He did it in 2006, his first year with the Jets, after New York had played to win the games in 2005 but did not win many under Herm Edwards.

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns PredictionInterestingly enough, the parallels to do not end there.

You may recall that in 2004, the year preceding the Jets’ 4-12 stumble and Edwards’ eventual ouster, the Jets went 10-6.  Similarly, as I know you will recall because I’ve already mentioned it, the Browns went 10-6 in 2007, the year prior to their 4-12 collapse in 2008 that led to the ouster of then-head coach Romeo Crennel.

So for Eric Mangini, this is already charted territory. The man has done it once, which should give Browns fans a legitimate reason to think that he can do it again.

(Note to all Browns fans: for the sake of our ever-diminishing sanity, let’s forget for the moment the fact that Mangini’s Jets yo-yo’d back to 4-12 in his second year, completing a four-year run of 10-6, 4-12, 10-6, 4-12 that we would obviously like to avoid.)

2 – Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley have nowhere to go but up

Let’s get one given about the 2009 Browns out of the way right now. We all know that this is a team still in need of more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thus, the playmakers that they do have absolutely must play up to their capabilities this season.

Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are, unquestionably, two of the five most talented players on the Browns roster (along with the consistently solid Joe Thomas, Josh Cribbs, and Shaun Rogers…at least he was last year). Both Braylon and Kamerion were awful in 2008, despite already having proven that they can succeed at the NFL level. These two must play much closer to their potential for the Browns to have success in 2009.

And there is every reason to believe that they will do so.

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns PredictionBraylon Edwards is the player that I correctly pegged as the key to the Browns season in 2008 after we watched him struggle in Week 1 against Dallas. Sadly, I was proven correct as Braylon’s awful season was symbolic of the entire team’s failure last year.

But this is still a guy who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft, who has shown that he can produce yards and TDs in big numbers, and who should be entering his prime at 26 years old.

In 2007, we probably saw Braylon’s ceiling. In 2008, we probably saw his floor. In 2009, we just need to see a very good receiver, which Braylon is perfectly capable of being. And if Braylon is only very good — putting on hold, for a moment, any expectation of him being great — he should produce 75-85 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards, and 8-9 TDs. These are not unreasonable numbers.

And think about it: if Braylon had just been good last year, as opposed to decidedly awful, the Browns probably win one or two more games.

Auspiciously, Braylon has appeared better and more focused this preseason (3 rec, 51 yards, TD in the Browns’ most recent preseason game) and should be more consistent if the Browns pick one QB and stick with him.

He can’t be worse than he was last year, and that alone will make the Browns better.

On the other side of the ball, Kamerion Wimbley is, like Braylon, a former first round pick with worlds of talent. He is also, like Braylon, prone to inconsistency and had his worst season as a pash rusher last year. After a great rookie season in which Wimbley got 11 sacks, he fell to only 4 last season.

So like Braylon, we have probably seen Kamerion’s floor. I’m not quite sure we have seen his ceiling yet, however; and the combo of Eric Mangini and new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may just be able to unleash it. The Jets and Raiders (where Ryan coached last season) were both in the top half of the NFL in sacks last year. Say what you will about the ability of Ryan’s Raiders to stop the run — they couldn’t — but they did a decent job of getting after the passer.

And he is, after all, a Ryan.

The Browns have Shaun Rogers and D’Qwell Jackson as the centerpieces of their quest to improve the run defense. And let’s be honest, it could improve and still not be very good. Kamerion Wimbley, on the other hand, is the centerpiece of the Browns’ pass rush, and there appear to be new strategies in play (such as moving him around more) to make him more effective.

Kamerion has too much talent to pick up only four sacks this year. If he can get back into double-digits, which he is perfectly capable of doing, the Browns’ defense will improve. An improvement by Kamerion alone won’t make the Browns defense great, and might not make it good, but it will at least make it better.

Assuming these two immensely talented players can play closer to their abilities than they did last season, it should make the Browns 2-3 games better. I suppose it’s fair to say that we should expect such improvement at our own risk, but it’s at least a reason for hope. 

Remember, we’re Browns fans. Hope is all we have.

3 – The pieces are in place for the Browns to be far more effective running the football

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns Prediction

A lot of blame got heaped onto Derek, Brady, and Braylon for the Browns’ offensive struggles last season, and deservedly so; but the running game provided little in the way of backup. The Browns finished 26th in the league in rushing last year with a paltry 3.9 yards per carry. Unless you have a healthy Kurt Warner with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at receiver, that’s just not going to get it done.

Much was made of the Derek-to-Braylon and Derek-to-Kellen and Derek-to-Jurevicius combos that made the Browns’ 2007 offense so successful. But did you realize that the Browns also finished 10th in rushing that year and averaged 4.3 yards per carry?

With Brady Quinn likely to get the nod at QB, and two rookies plus a QB-turned-kick-returner-turned-wide-receiver likely to be among his top five targets on the outside, the Browns will have an inexperienced passing game in 2009 that will undoubtedly be a work in progress. Where we have the best combination of experience and talent is in the backfield.

And, as with the assumed improvement of Braylon and Kamerion, I think it’s safe to assume that the running game will be better in ’09 — in large part because it cannot possibly be worse.

Jamal Lewis is a former freak-of-nature-type stud who could bowl over defenders and run by them at the same time. Now tumbling down the 30-and-over running back hill, Lewis lacks breakaway speed and can be painfully slow to the hole. What he can do, however, is churn out tough yards while wearing down defenders, block effectively, and provide much-needed leadership on an offense that is devoid of it.

I’ve heard whispers that the Browns should cut ties with Lewis because of his diminishing skills as a runner. That’s a myopic viewpoint. This will probably be his last year in Cleveland, but he will still be valuable, for the reasons mentioned above, even if his carries are reduced (which they should be) and he’s only a 3.8 yard per carry back.

Where my excitement and optimism about the Browns running game comes from is the presence and flashes of brilliance that we’ve seen from Jerome Harrison and James Davis. I’ve written at length about these two players and their potential for success in 2009 here and here, so I won’t repeat myself. Suffice it to say, as long as Eric Mangini and Brian Daboll make good on their promise to get these guys more involved, the Browns will be a better running football team in 2009.

Something else to keep in mind: while everyone focused on the Jets’ passing game and Brett Favre last season, they were surprisingly effective running the football. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington led a ground attack that finished 9th in the league in rushing.

And one more thing to keep in mind: Eric Mangini comes from the Bill Belichick school of coaching, where you focus on what players can do, as opposed to what they cannot do, and put them in positions to succeed and maximize their value to the team. One example that proves this is the Jets’ superb use of Leon Washington last year.

The previous Browns coaching staff always seemed hung up on what players could not do, as evidenced by their exasperating unwillingness to get Jerome Harrison consistent touches. The guy averaged more than 7 yards per carry! No one thinks he can keep that up with 100-125 carries, but he certainly is part of the solution to the Browns ground woes and I expect the new coaching staff to recognize this. 

[Editor's Note: As someone astutely pointed out to me after posting this, Romeo Crennel also came from the Belichick school of coaching.  And to that I say...he must not have listened very well. Hopefully Mangini was a better student.]

Time will tell how effectively Mangini and Daboll can direct the Browns offense, but the Jets’ success running last season plus the versatility of the Lewis-Harrison-Davis trio has me optimistic that we will be much better on the ground this year than we were last year. We sure as hell (broken record alert!) can’t be much worse. And that right there is another reason to hope for and expect improvement. 

Finally, here a few additional quick-hit reasons for Browns fans to have hope heading into 2009:

– Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are playmaking, ball-hawking cornerbacks who have flashed the potential for both greatness (the home Monday night win over the Giants) and for punishing lapses in focus (the devastating Broncos loss). As they gain experience and enter their prime, improvement should be inevitable. Add to this the fact that Eric Mangini is a secondary coach at heart and in experience, and I think we can safely assume that one position for which focus should be less of a problem this year is the defensive backfield.

– Josh Cribbs, whose contributions to the team’s 2007 success were never fully appreciated in my opinion, looks energized this preseason. Obviously something needs to be done with his contract, but if Cribbs can stay healthy and not fight nagging injuries like he did last year, he will make the Browns better on offense and special teams.

The Browns’ schedule, in theory, should be more palatable than last year’s. While the NFC North looks to be much improved this year, the AFC West has only one good team. And if Baltimore continues its trend of being good one year and then bad the next, it could provide two in-division opportunities for victories that were not there last year.

Just a quick glance at the schedule reveals the following eight games that are very winnable: at Denver, vs Cincinnati, at Buffalo, at Detroit, at Cincinnati, and the last three games of the year: at Kansas City, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville. If the Browns are indeed a better football team in 2009, and can find a way to just go 6-2 or 5-3 in these eight games, a 7-9 or 8-8 or *gasp* even better record is possible.

And those final three games, against teams that no one is pegging as playoff-caliber heading into the year, could prove valuable if the Browns somehow are in contention for a playoff spot.

So, in conclusion, Peter King can take his 2-14 prediction and shove it.

I like Peter King and read his Monday Morning Quarterback column religiously, and after last season’s debacle I suppose anything is possible. When your team is picked to compete in the AFC, you get five prime-time games, and then you fall flat on your face, it’s hard to really argue when an outsider shows a lack of faith.

Cleveland Browns 2009 Season Outlook - Reasons for Hope | Peter King, SI Browns PredictionBut there are reasons for hope in Cleveland that many prognosticators, and even many fans, are not recognizing. Similarly, there were reasons for caution heading into last year that many prognosticators, and certainly many fans, turned a blind eye towards. The unexpected happened in 2007 and the unexpected happened in 2008, so who’s to say the unexpected won’t happen in 2009?

I realize that I may be setting myself up for another season of disappointment and heartache, but I’m beginning to get excited and optimistic about the 2009 Browns. I honestly have no idea if we will be better or if we will be worse, and the truth is that nobody does. This is the National Football League aka Not For Long aka No F’ing Logic, a league where the unexpected has ironically become the expected.

Eric Mangini has already proven that he can defy conventional wisdom and expectations in his first year with a new team, and the Browns have certainly proven they can defy conventional wisdom and expectations with their performance the last two years. But, alas, this is the Browns we are talking about, a team notorious for its consistent ability to suck the hope and optimism out of its fans by a seasons’ end.

So call it a coping mechanism, call it foolhardy positivity, or even just call it crazy. Either way, while the fresh-cut-grass smell is still emanating from another NFL season set to begin, with every team sitting there even at 0-0, I will once more jump on the bandwagon of optimistic hope and believe that the unexpected can indeed occur in Cleveland.

We’ll see. 

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* – Cleveland Browns helmet logo credit: Wikipedia

* – Eric Mangini photo credit: New York Post

* – Braylon Edwards photo credit: The Repository (Canton, OH) via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

* – Kamerion Wimbley photo credit: AP via DayLife

Browns Preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report

Browns preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange and Brown ReportOver the course of the last week, I have had the pleasure of engaging in a Browns preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report. You can stay current with Barry’s latest updates on the OBR blog. As I listen to the third preseason game (Titans up 7-0 right now, Brady Quinn started) I will post the answers below for your viewing pleasure.

And remember, if you are a Cleveland Browns fan, there is no greater Cleveland Browns resource online than the Orange & Brown Report. So click over there and register for premium access. The best part: you get a 7-day free trial to realize how kick ass it is. We know that with Eric Mangini in charge, information will be hard to come by. No one will have more than these guys.

If you don’t want to do the premium access right now, at the very least follow the OBR on Twitter for the latest Browns news as it happens.

Also, follow these links to StubHub for great deals on 2009 Browns tickets or tickets to all NFL games.

Okay, I’ve shilled enough (but I do mean it, these guys are great). Onto the Q&A:

Q: I heard Gil Brandt on Sirius say that the reason the Browns have not announced their QB yet is because they are trying to trade Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson and do not want to hurt the trade value for either. Is there any truth to this, based on what you know? And how do you see the QB situation shaking out?

Barry McBride: Gil Brandt is obviously a great football mind and still well-connected in NFL circles. This isn’t a new thought, however. It’s something we’ve discussed on the OBR ever since Eric Mangini announced that there would be a quarterback competition back in March during the scouting combines.

Brady Quinn - Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns QB battleAt the time, there was a lot of speculation that the Browns would deal either Quinn or Anderson for draft picks, and it made no sense to reduce the trade value of either by declaring one of them to be the team’s backup. It’s certainly possible that one or the other will still be dealt, and that this is why Mangini is waiting, although there isn’t anything visibly percolating at the moment.

Another way to look at it is that neither quarterback has stepped up and grabbed the job by the throat. The Browns hoped that either Quinn or DA would make it a non-issue by their performance this Summer, but both quarterbacks continue to demonstrate their respective strengths and weaknesses as expected. Neither has really stepped their game up to the point where the job was clearly won, although Quinn still seems to have the edge.

One other thing to keep in mind is that Eric Mangini’s penchant for secrecy dates back to his time as a defensive coordinator working for Bill Belichick. He has said that one of the toughest things for him to overcome as a defensive coordinator is not knowing which quarterback he will be facing in the coming weeks. He may simply be holding off declaring a winner to make it harder for the Vikings to plan for the season opener.

Q: One of my thoughts regarding DA and Brady is that while Brady should, theoretically, be less prone to the boneheaded mistakes we’ve become accustomed to with Derek, having Derek as the starter would be better for Braylon. And with the Browns devoid of proven playmakers on offense, putting Braylon in the best position to succeed may be the best move for us offensively. Do you agree?

Barry McBride: I like how you’re thinking, but I’m not sure I’m fully on board.

The first thought that springs to mind is that the biggest challenge to Braylon Edwards’ success since 2007 has typically been Braylon himself. While undeniably talented, Edwards seems to suffer from lapses in focus that aren’t dependent on who is quarterbacking. He has memorable dropped touchdown passes that have been delivered to him from both Quinn and Anderson in the past, as recently as the first preseason game against the Packers when Quinn hit him in the back of the end zone.

If anything, Quinn’s softer touch with the football might help Edwards hold onto the ball somewhat, although Anderson’s ability to stretch the field obviously makes Edwards a threat on every play, as does Anderson’s sometimes stubborn desire to focus on getting the ball to him even when dealing with double or triple-coverage.

One other factor that suggests that Quinn might ultimately help Edwards is that it’s critical for the Browns to have credible #2 and #3 receiving threats, and a credible threat of runners catching passes out of the backfield as well. Anderson has a tendency to continually attempt to feed the ball to Edwards (and Winslow in past years), and Quinn’s tendency to go through his progressions quickly might force opponents to take the Browns’ other receivers far more seriously and help reduce the amount of attention that Edwards gets from opponents.

I suspect that we’ll ultimately really only know how Edwards would fare under a full season with Quinn at QB is to give that option a chance, and see how he does.

(As I am posting this, Phil Dawson just kicked a field goal. Browns close the gap to 7-3.)

Q: As a fan who is 1,000 miles away from the action, I can only look at stats and quotes in the paper to make a judgment. With QBs though, leadership, intangibles, huddle command, etc., are so important. Between Derek and Brady, who seems to have more respect from their teammates? Who “commands” the team better? Or have they not separated themselves in this regard either?

Barry McBride: I would give the edge here to Quinn as well, based on what I’ve heard through OBR reporters like Lane Adkins and Fred Greetham.

With some strong personalities on the Browns (as with every team), it’s critical that there not be a question about who is in charge in the huddle. As we’ve been told by players themselves, there’s no question when Quinn is on the field that he’s running the show. Although it’s never been said outright by his teammates, by extension, one can infer that Anderson may be somewhat less of a take-charge guy. I have to add, however, that Lane Adkins has relayed this year that Anderson’s approach in that department has taken a step up. He has a little more of a swagger about him than in past years.

Full disclosure: Someone reading the last two answers may conclude that I’ve got my mind made up about who I think would serve the Browns better in the long run. To that, I have to say, “guilty as charged”.

I was an advocate of drafting Quinn, have advocated giving him opportunities faster, and have been skeptical about Anderson ever since we got our first prolonged exposure to him during 2007 training camp. He’s clearly got tremendous athletic ability and potential that makes offensive coordinators salivate, but I admit that I still see the same quarterback from Oregon State highlight films: rocket arm, sprays the ball all over the field, and has a very high dependence on getting good protection and having receivers who will out-muscle defenders for the ball. That all came together to support him in 2007, and he was a Pro Bowler. It didn’t happen in 2008, and I don’t see it happening in 2009, either. On a team that has those attributes around him, Anderson could be very successful, but the Browns just aren’t there.

Q: Okay, well that about wraps things up. Wait…oh…there are 21 other starting positions on the Browns this year? Who knew?

What is the status of the contract talks with Josh Cribbs? When I watched the Detroit preseason game, it reminded me that we do, in fact, have a gamebreaker other than Dropsie Edwards. To me, especially with his improvement as a WR, Cribbs’ contract demands are not in any way outlandish. Are Mangini and Kokinis just playing a cat-and-mouse game with Cribbs and planning to sign him, or do you think they just are not convinced yet that he is worth more than he is making?

Barry McBride: Cribbs has agreed to come in, practice, and play despite lack of visible progress being made on his contract. Obviously, he’s a key component of the Browns special teams, but the team itself claims to be mystified as to how to price a return man (and obviously is not wanting to give Cribbs the same money that the Bears laid out for Devin Hester). The Browns are also, like most NFL teams, reluctant to tear up a contract with two years left. Although it should be noted that this reluctance rarely is in evidence when players are under-performing rather than out-performing their deals.

As luck would have it, the preseason has given Cribbs a chance to make a serious push for the #2 WR role which, if he wins it, bails both him and the team out by providing some more guidance about where Cribbs’ price should be, as well as a stronger rationalization for doing so. The Cribbs saga has yet to play out, but has already been marked by some of the worst mainstream media reporting I’ve ever seen, as both local and national media elements carve headlines out of virtually nothing more than having their previous assumptions about Cribbs’ intentions proven wrong.

Q: There have been rumblings recently that James Davis could start sneaking his way into more first team action. How patient will Mangini be with Jamal Lewis if Jamal continues to be slow to the hole and sports a 3.5-3.8 yard per carry average? And how does Jerome Harrison fit into this equation? Mangini seemed committed to getting Harrison the ball based on comments from early training camp, but Davis appears to have passed him over the last week. When will Jerome get back on the field and how do you see the attempts being split up between he and the rook?

Barry McBride: I don’t see Davis and Harrison as being much in conflict since they’re different types of backs. Harrison, although he gets more yards after contact than I would have expected, still primarily fits the mold of an NFL third-down back, whereas Davis is more of a between-the-tackles runner, like Jamal Lewis. I see Davis as spelling Lewis, with Harrison appearing more in third down situations. What Davis’ emergence means to Harrison is that he’s less likely to get opportunities to serve as an every down back, although I considered that to be somewhat questionable in any event.

If the interior of the Browns offensive line can’t hold holes open for longer than they have in the preseason, Lewis’ opportunities will go down, since Davis is quicker to the hole. This won’t make Lewis happy, as he still seems to firmly believe he’s most effective with 20-25 carries per game. While statistics bear that out for his career as a whole, it’s a dubious notion at this point.

Q: Real quick before we move to defense, what can Browns fans expect from the offensive line this year? Obviously Joe Thomas is an anchor on the left side, but will this year’s line be closer in performance to the 2007 unit or last year’s sieve?

Barry McBride: I wouldn’t expect 2007-level performance, simply because I don’t believe that Pork Chop Womack can perform at the same level that Ryan Tucker did during that year. We found out in 2008 how critical Tucker was to that unit and to helping out the undersized Hank Fraley and new right tackle Kevin Shaffer. It’s no coincidence, in my view, that the team’s best performance last year came in the one game where Tucker appeared. He has been on and off the practice field all preseason, and I don’t anticipate that he’ll be able to help take the right side of the Browns line up to the next level. Womack and John St. Clair have been steady and professional, although St. Clair has shown in the preseason a tendency towards ill-timed penalties.

Alex Mack has a very good shot of displacing Hank Fraley at center, but we’ve already seen him dealing with the rough NFL learning curve. In the AFC North, he’ll have to contend with some of the best nose tackles in the league. Expect mistakes to be made as Mack adjusts to the NFL.

Q: Braylon Edwards is the only “sure thing” in the receiving corps (except when wide open passes come his way, of course). How have the rookies looked? And is Mike Furrey (only a few years removed from a really good season in Detroit) an under-the-radar acquisition to could have 50-, 60-catch impact and play a QB-friendly role like what Joe Jurevicius was in ’07?

Barry McBride: Furrey looks like a very good third receiver so far, which the team has missed ever since Dennis Northcutt went on his way. It’s doubtful that he could equate to what Jurevicius did (since Furrey will be out of the slot, and JJ was a #2 WR, in any event). It looks like he might be a smart fantasy football pickup late in the draft based on his performance so far in the preseason. He will probably get 30-40 catches from what I’ve seen so far.

Brian Robiskie has been a little bit disappointing since being hyped as a pro-ready NFL receiver, but such hype rarely proves true. Both he and Massaqoui are dealing with the usual struggles you see receivers suffer in their rookie season. At this point, Massaquoi may be higher on the depth chart based on his performance to date. He has looked very solid both in practice and games and should be in line for some playing time as the season begins.

Q: We know that everything defensively revolves around Shaun Rogers, with D’Qwell Jackson providing steady performance at LB, but it seems to me that for the Browns to to improve defensively, two things need to happen: Kamerion Wimbley needs to get to 11-12 sacks and fulfill the potential he showed as a rookie, and the Eric Wright-Brandon McDonald combo needs to become more consistent. Do you agree? And is there anything inherent in the new system/coaching staff that should help these players improve this seson?

Barry McBride: The Browns really needed to improve their game up the middle, and adding Eric Barton alongside D’Qwell Jackson seems to be a terrific move so far. Rod Hood has given Brandon McDonald a little push, but the team’s early scouting of corners for next year’s college draft convinces me that neither may be seen as the long-term answer there. A bigger question at this point is at safety, where the team has little depth behind starter Brodney Pool, whose ability to play is in question following last week’s game. Pool has a concussion history and the team has not revealed why he appeared to woozily walk off the field. If Pool is not available, the Browns defense will suffer.

Wimbley has a chance to perform better this year for a couple of reasons. The first is that the team has improved their consistency and depth in the defensive line, with C.J. Mosely providing a solid addition, and Wimbley needs that in order to have a lane to the quarterback. Secondly, the coaching staff has shown much more enthusiasm for moving Wimbley around from right to left, which is something Romeo Crennel rarely did. By making Wimbley’s position on the field less predictable, he has the possibility for greater success. It will ultimately be up to him to take advantage of his role in this defense.

Q: The NFL is notorious for having teams go from worst-to-first. In the AFC North, Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champ, Cincinnati is starting to become a popular darkhorse candidate for improvement with Carson Palmer back, and though they seem to be terrible every other season and lost Rex Ryan, Baltimore is still Baltimore. Put on your optimists hat (if you can): why is not an outlandish idea for Browns fans to dream of an AFC North title? (Or is there simply no reason to do so?)

Barry McBride: It’s always possible, as long as meteors and comets are around that could possibly smash into Pittsburgh or Baltimore while their respective teams are practicing. Or, better yet, when the two face off in the same stadium.

Outside of that, it’s going to be a rough road for a Browns team that still needs to show that it can get consistent performance on offense and stop the run effectively on defense. Three possibly optimistic signs: (1) This team did go 10-6 just a couple of years ago, so there’s more talent than is obvious from last year’s 4-12 record; (2) Barring the loss of Pool. they could always get lucky with injuries, which is always the great unknown going into every season; and, (3) Mangini did manage to turn the Jets around during his first year as head coach.

An 8-8 season is not totally unreasonable, but I still believe that the team has a significant uphill battle ahead of them. They face six tough games within the division, and will have to have a large number of things go right for them in order to make noise in the AFC North.

Thanks for the great questions!!

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[Editor's Note: And we thank Barry McBride for taking the time to answer our questions.  Now that you've enjoyed the Q&A, hop on over to the OBR and sign up!]

* – Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson photo credit: Getty via FanNation


Hot Button: Could (and Should) James Davis End Up Starting at RB for the Browns?

(This is the first edition of a new feature here at MSF that we are calling the “Hot Button.” We are calling it that for two reasons. First, because it will involve me or someone else analyzing an important, potentially controversial topic that is germane to Midwest sports discussion. Second, and perhaps most importantly, it is sponsored by our good friends at American Button Machines, the button maker capital of the Internet. See the connection? I figured you would. Now onto this week’s Hot Button…)

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James Davis Fantasy: 2009 outlook, playing time, projectionOne of the most interesting stories to come out of Cleveland Browns training camp this year has been the unexpected emergence of 6th round draft pick James Davis as a potentially integral part of the Browns’ 2009 offense.

With Jamal Lewis seeming to be firmly entrenched as the starter despite his advancing age, and Eric Mangini pledging early in camp to get more touches for Jerome Harrison, it appeared that Davis would provide nice depth and a body on special teams, but little else.

Then he ran 80+ yards for a TD against Detroit’s backups and seemingly overnight there was chatter that he could end up as the starter.

Yesterday, Patrick McManamon of the Akron Beacon-Journal posed the question “Do the Browns have a running back controvery?” His answer was a resounding…maybe.

The Browns could have a couple of very interesting decisions in the near future.

One is at quarterback. Which we all pretty much know about.

The other, though, is at running back where rookie James Davis might be making a push to unseat Jamal Lewis.

Far-fetched? Perhaps.

But a certain team that makes its living running the ball extremely well in the shade of the Rocky Mountains has had great success with late-round running backs.

I am sure that all Browns fans are excited about the potential that James Davis has flashed. And Eric Mangini has spoken glowingly of his rookie, which I thought was a little unexpected but certainly nice to hear. Still, there are some reasons for caution, and no one should be writing Jamal Lewis’ Browns epitaph just yet.

First off, many a running back has had a strong preseason, especially playing in the later quarters, and not seen it translate to the regular season. We need to see James Davis succeed against other teams’ first team defenses before we book his ticket for the Pro Bowl. Remove the 81-yard run from his impressive line against the Lions (12 carries, 116 yards, TD) and Davis’ stats look far more pedestrian: 11 carries, 35 yards. 

True, the ability to take carries to the house from long distances is a desirable trait for a running back to have, and certainly something that Jamal Lewis now lacks, but Davis’ 81-yard scamper may have been more of an anomaly than something we will see regularly. According to his pre-draft Scouts Inc. profile, Davis’ straight-line speed is above average but not elite. While Scouts Inc is by no means the gospel, it is further reason to at least temper expectations that Davis will be regularly running up and down the field in the regular season.

Additionally, there is an important part of the running back role that many fans (myself included) forget about sometimes in our zeal to see a young guy or backup get on the field: pass blocking. Once again, looking at his Scouts Inc profile, Davis is criticized for not being great in this area:

Has shown the ability to catch the ball when facing the QB and is a solid underneath dump-off option. However, he lacks ideal experience catching the ball, he struggles to adjust to ball thrown outside of his frame and he is not a homerun threat after the catch. Shows adequate awareness in pass protection and flashes the ability to hold ground against blitzing defenders. However, he’s not very physical at the point of attack and doesn’t work as hard as he should to sustain.

This jives with reports I’ve seen and heard from people who have attended Browns training camp. Everyone has lauded James Davis for being extremely impressive as a runner, but are concerned that his blocking is not quite up to snuff. Certainly opponents will attempt take advantage of this with blitzes, which could leave Davis as the last line of defense to protect whoever is playing QB (at least we have two!).

Thus, especially early in the season, Davis being on the field could very well be a tip-off to the defense that we plan to run the ball or throw a quick pass. This would conceivably add more defenders to the box and potentially limit Davis’ effectiveness and the offense overall. 

Now that I have said all of this, and highlighted what I see as the glaring questions/weaknesses surrounding James Davis, let me also say this: for the Browns to have a successful season, James Davis will have to be a major part of it. We saw how poorly the Browns’ offense played last year, and how much it was hamstrung by a lack of play-makers. the Browns will need the spring that Davis appears to have in his step to put a more dynamic unit on the field in ’09.

At one time, Jamal Lewis was an explosive runner with the ability to maul people and run away from them. Those days, however, are long gone. While Lewis still runs hard and is a solid short-yardage back, he is slow to the hole and lacks any semblance of breakaway speed. He can churn out 4-5 yard carries on a good day, but rarely is going to move the chains if the distance to the marker is outside of that amount.

Having James Davis, a young running back with fresh legs and some burst, can be an excellent complement to the bruising Lewis. Sprinkle in Jerome Harrison – whose production with limited opportunities should not be forgotten - as a runner and receiver, and the Browns have the makings of a solid running back trio that can keep eachother fresh and offer varying looks to defenses.

James Davis may very well prove to be the every down back of the future for the Browns; and what a steal that would be, getting him in the 6th round. For 2009, however, the Browns and their fans will most likely be best served by Davis playing a role in which he gets 10-15 carries, Lewis gets a similar number, and Jerome Harrison gets 8-10 touches (carries and catches).

So rather than a controversy, let’s call it a committee. The Giants rode “Earth, Wind, and Fire” (Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward) all the way to a Super Bowl and then to another solid season last year. With more and more teams moving to 2-3 back committees to provide different looks and keep legs fresh throughout the year, it may (and probably should) be something that the Browns look to do as well. 

Next season, with Lewis likely gone and a full year to evaluate Davis, we can start discussing who “the starter” is. For this year, let’s enjoy the addition of what looks like another solid backfield option and hope that James Davis is what he appears that he may be: a solid building block for the future of the Eric Mangini era in Cleveland.

Bonus James Davis fantasy projection: As stated, it certainly looks more and more like James Davis will become an integral part of the Browns running game. And we’ve all seen enough rookie running backs produce to know that you shouldn’t avoid them like you do rookie receivers. A talented running back behind a decent O-line can usually come in and have success right away. 

With Lewis and Harrison in the mix as well, however, I would not expect anything close to what Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson did last year (barring injuries to Lewis and/or Harrison). Still, James Davis is worth drafting in the later rounds and should at least have some value as a bye week fill-in. I look for him to get 125-150 carries on the season and between 550-675 yards with 3 or 4 scores. 

Obviously if he starts getting 15-20 carries a game, he becomes a possible #3/flex starter or even a #2 depending on the matchup. But I would draft him hoping for that kind of production, not expecting it.

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The Hot Button is sponsored by American Button Machines, the premier online source for button machine and button press enthusiasts, including supplies for fabric buttons, photo buttons, pinback buttons, as well as badge reels. They also sell a variety of circle cutters and will teach you how to make a button at their website or on their button making blog.

* – James Davis photo credit: Scott Shaw / Plain-Dealer via Cleveland.com

2009 Fantasy Football Sleeper Pick: Jerome Harrison of the Cleveland Browns

Last year, there were a few common collective refrains heard from Browns fans:

  1. Damnit!
  2. Catch the ball Braylon!
  3. Son of a bitch!
  4. Man I hate the Steelers.
  5. Get the ball to Jerome Harrison!

Jerome Harrison 2009 fantasy football sleeper - projections, stats, and role in offenseI’m sure there were others, but those are the first five that pop into my head; and it is the last of those five that I am going to deal with this morning, because it could have a decidedly positive impact on your fantasy football teams this year.

Last season, the Browns were expected to have a dynamic offense after what seemed like a breakout 2007 season. Unfortunately, 2007 began to look more and more like an anomaly — the function of a weak schedule and low expectations — with each passing week.  Sure, injuries played some part it. Mostly though, the Browns simply shot themselves in the foot time after time with dropped passes, poor execution, unimaginative play calling, and an overall dearth of offensive leadership.

But there was one bright spot: Jerome Harrison, the diminutive running back who got very few carries, but always seemed to do something productive with the ball when he got it.

Jerome Harrison comes into the 2009 season as a three-year veteran, having been drafted in the 5th round of the 2006 draft out of Washington State. If you just glance at his career totals, you will likely be underwhelmed:

  • 77 carries
  • 448 yards
  • 1 rushing TD
  • 23 catches
  • 182 receiving yards
  • 1 receiving TD

A couple of years ago, that would have been a decent three-week stretch for LaDainian Tomlinson. 

If you break the numbers down a little further, however, you begin to see that Harrison’s overall lack of production is not necessarily his fault. A player can only do so much with the chances he is given, and Harrison has only had 100 touches in his NFL career. With a 5.8 career yard per carry average (7.2 in 2008) and a 7.9 yard per reception average, Harrison has at least made the most of his chances.

And what makes Jerome Harrison a sleeper pick for 2009 is that, barring injury, his touches will undoubtedly increase.

Pat Kirwan’s Sirius NFL Radio show was at Browns training camp yesterday and I was able to catch a portion of it during my drive home. They interviewed Jamal Lewis and Eric Mangini, both of him talked about Harrison as a key part of the plans for 2009. Lewis went so far as to say what all Browns fans were saying last year: namely, that Harrison was underutilized by the previous coaching staff. Mangini spoke glowingly of Harrison’s work ethic, talent, and aptitude in picking up the new offense.

What remains to be seen is whether these positive training camp reports actually translate into additional touches for Harrison. Last year, we heard the Browns coaches speak on more than one occasion about getting Harrison more involved. Then Sunday would roll around and Harrison would carry the ball 4 times for 25 yards in the first half and never see it again. Honestly, it was mind-boggling. 

There are a couple of reasons why I think Lewis and Mangini were doing more than just paying lip service to an increased role for Harrison:

Jamal Lewis isn’t getting any younger

Jamal Lewis will be 30 years old on opening day, and there are few cliches used more often in fantasy football and real football circles than the notion that running backs fall of a cliff once they reach the age of 30. Of course, the reason it is so often uttered is that the statistical evidence, for the most part, backs it up.

After a solid 2007 season in which he gained 1,304 yards on 298 carries, Lewis regressed last season to 1,002 yards. Part of the reason was that he did not get as many 4th quarter carries with the Browns often finding themselves behind in games. Another part of the reason for his decline was an almost full yard drop his average per carry.

If the Browns can throw the ball more effectively this year to open up the running lanes, and not be playing catch up in so many games, Lewis could bounce back to have a better season. However, with 2,399 career carries there is only so much tread left on the tires. If the Browns want their workhorse to be fresh late in the season and in the 4th quarter when they need to nurse a lead, they will have to manage his workload throughout the year and during games.

Enter Jerome Harrison.

I highly doubt that we will see a repeat of the almost 10:1 split in carries between Lewis and Harrison. More than likely, it will be somewhere in the 7:3 range, with rookie James Davis perhaps picking up a few here and there as well. Either way, the age of Jamal Lewis will compel the Browns coaching staff to throw a few carries elsewhere, and Harrison is the next in line to grab them.

Eric Mangini knows how to get the most out of quicker, undersized backs

Over Eric Mangini’s last two seasons in New York, his Jets teams featured a two-headed running back attack led by feature back Thomas Jones and his understudy/kick returner extraordinaire Leon Washington. In 2007, when he was 29, Thomas Jones carried the ball 310 times with Washington picking up 71 carries. In 2008, when he was 30, Thomas Jones’ workload was slightly reduced to 290 carries, with Washington grabbing 76 of his own. Where Leon Washington made an additional dent was in the passing game, catching 36 balls for 213 yards in 2007 and 47 balls for 355 yards in 2008.

What does this mean for Jerome Harrison?

Well let’s say that the Browns employ a similar split in touches between Lewis and Harrison as Mangini’s Jets teams did with Jones and Washington, using Harrison’s career averages per touch as our guide.

  • 74 carries at 5.8 yards per carry = 429 yards
  • 42 receptions at 7.9 yards per reception = 331.8

Considering that Harrison scored 1 TD in his 34 carries last year, along with 1 TD in 12 receptions, extrapolated out over the touches listed above we could optimistically pencil Harrison in for 5-6 TDs.

Now, is around 750 total yards and 5-6 TDs going to make Jerome Harrison as fantasy stud? Not at all. And with more touches, he likely won’t be able to maintain a 5.8 yard per carry average. However, I think there is a good chance that Jerome Harrison could see more than 74 carries this year, and that he could still be in the 4.8-5.2 yard per carry neighborhood. And obviously if Jamal Lewis goes down with any type of injury, Harrison’s workload will only increase.

And I definitely believe that he will eclipse ESPN.com’s projection of 459 total yards.

Jerome Harrison has always produced when given the opportunity

This fact often gets lost when people look at Jerome Harrison and just see a 5’9, 218 pound back. In college, Harrison set the Washington State single-season rushing record with 1,900 yards. He also broke the Pac-10 record for consecutive 100-yards games with 16. 

Yes, Harrison is slighter of frame than most backs, but did you know that he is actually the same height and almost 10 pounds heavier than Emmitt Smith was during his playing days? This is not to say that Harrison is anywhere in the class of Smith — obviously — but Harrison should not just be dismissed off-hand as a guy without the ability to carry the load for the Browns.  Smaller, quicker backs like Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Darren Sproles have proven as recently as last year that even though NFL defensive players get bigger by the season, smaller running backs with quickness and productive pedigrees can find significant success in the right situation.

It is good to have two backs in today’s NFL, and I think the Browns can have one of the more underrated backfields in the NFL in Lewis and Harrison if the offense rebounds to become a respectable unit in 2009. But if Lewis ever were to go down, I would feel comfortable that Jerome Harrison could produce with 15-20 carries per game and that he could be a solid #2 RB or weekly flex starter.

As it says above, he’s always produced when given the opportunity. 

With that said, I can’t help but think that when Mangini and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll look at the tape of last year’s team they are going to realize that only one player on offense consistently made plays when he touched the ball. That player was Jerome Harrison, and it sure would have been nice if the previous regime had realized it; or, if they did realize it, if they’d actually been proactive in getting him more touches throughout the season.

With the success that teams like Tennessee and Miami had last year splitting time between two backs, I actually think that Harrison could and will get more touches than what is projected above. I would not be at all surprised to see him get 100-125 touches, approach 1,000 total yards, and find the end zone 6-7 times. Jamal Lewis will no doubt get the bulk of the goalline touches and TDs, but Harrison’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss in space will make him a valuable commodity inside the red zone on screen and swing passes.  If he can find the end zone on a few of those passes, 6-7 TDs is not an outlandish projection in my estimation. 

You don’t want to leave your draft with Harrison slotted to be a starter. However, once the bye weeks roll around, he will have some value as a capable flex option who will get touches and have the potential to get you double-digit fantasy points in any given week. And if you’re in a PPR league, Harrison’s ability to grab 2-3 catches per game at least ensures that you won’t come up empty at a spot  in the worst case scenario.

So the question is where should you target Jerome Harrison in your drafts. Clearly, he is not a guy you want to even think about in the first half of a draft, nor do you need to.  Harrison is not in Yahoo!’s Top 40 running backs for 2009 and doesn’t show up until #76 in ESPN’s running back rankings. His value obviously increases somewhat in a point-per-reception league, where he shows up at #192 overall in the ESPN PPR rankings.

Here is the guide I will be using when it comes to Jerome Harrison, and obviously specific rounds will depend on the number of teams in your league and how your league doles out points. (And, since I am in leagues that have other Browns fans, I may have to jump on Jerome a round or two earlier than normal.)

  • If I draft Jamal Lewis somewhere in rounds 5 or 6, I am definitely grabbing Harrison by round 14 as an essential handcuff.
  • If I am in a PPR league, I am targeting Harrison somewhere in the 13-15 range, depending on the other RBs and WRs available.
  • In a non-PPR league in which I do not need Harrison as a handcuff, I will try to grab him in the last couple of rounds, earlier if there has been a run on second-tier, non-starting running backs already.

Remember that fantasy football championships are won many times by the guys you draft in the later rounds that far exceed their expected or projected value.  The later rounds are a great place to take chances on players who are one injury away from putting up big numbers, especially when the guy in front of them is a 30+ running back.

Last year, for example, I rode mid- and late-round draft picks Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton to a fantasy title. While Jerome Harrison is not going to approach the production of either of those two guys, he does have the potential to give you 9th or 10th round value with his current role in the later rounds of the draft. If he gets the chance to start at any point this season, he could potentially offer 3rd or 4th round value.

Stack a few of those guys together, along with a solid performance at the top of the draft, and you have the makings of a team with depth that can withstand the inevitable injuries you’ll endure, which will allow you to be competitive on a week-in, week-out basis.

Fatal Traffic Incident Involving Donte Stallworth the Latest Black Eye for Tennessee, NFL

dwayne-goodrich

Last month after Terry Glenn was arrested, I posted about the litany of Ohio State WRs who had been in trouble with the law. Not surprisingly, that post received comments calling me an “idiot” and essentially saying that similar lists could probably be compiled for any major college football program in America.

Unfortunately, the post I am writing this afternoon will prove those commenters right — and the subject isDonte Stallworth Fatal Accident - former Tennessee WR my favorite college football team: the Tennessee Volunteers.

As you surely know by now, former Volunteer WR Donte Stallworth was detained yesterday after the Bentley that he was driving hit a man who died soon thereafter. No charges have been field as of yet, but reports last night cited sources close to the situation that Stallworth had been drinking prior to the accident and would ultimately face charges, pending the official results of toxicology tests.

For fans of the Tennessee Volunteers and the NFL, this story feels like deja vu all over again.

Shockingly, and sadly, if the Tennessee football teams from the late 90s and early 00s held a reunion and gave out a Black Eye Award for Vol players in the NFL shining a negative light on their alma mater, Donte Stallworth’s incident yesterday would not even be among the top two nominees.

Leonard Little

The most infamous incident involving an ex-Vol is Leonard Little. Following a party in 1998, Leonard Little crashed into and killeLeonard Little - two DUI arrests - former Tennessee LBd Susan Gutweiler in St. Louis, MO. Little’s BAC measured .19 after the accident, more than double the legal limit of 0.08. Little pled guilty to involuntary manslaughter, received 98 days in jail, four years probation, and 1000 hours of community service. He was also suspended for 8 games of the 1999 season.

Since the 1998 accident, Little has signed contracts totaling 8 years and $37 million dollars.

Then, in a disturbing coda to the 1998 story, Little was arrested for drunk driving again, plus speeding, in 2004. Because of his prior arrest this was a felony case, but Little was acquitted of driving while intoxicated and convicted of only the misdemeanor speeding charge.

Dwayne Goodrich

You might think that other former Volunteers would have learned a lesson from the horrific story of Leonard Little. Unfortunately, the empirical evidence seems to suggest that they learned no lesson at all. Donte Stallworth’s accident yesterday is a perfect example, as is the story of former Volunteer and Dallas Cowboy Dwayne Goodrich.

Goodrich was an outstanding cornerback on the Volunteers’ 1998 National Championship team. He was tagged to cover superb Florida State WR Peter Warrick in the Fiesta Bowl that year, a game in which the Vols were huge underdogs. Goodrich stifled Warrick, had an interception return for a touchdown, and was named Defensive MVP of the game. Later that year he was drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft by the Cowboys.

In 2003, however, Goodrich’s life, his NFL career, and the lives of three good samaritans came crashing down in a fog of alcohol, speed, and fiery cars.Dwayne Goodrich in jail - former Tennessee Volunteers and Dallas Cowboys CB

After a night that Dwayne Goodrich, according to the Dallas Observer, has admitted included topless bars and alcohol (but not intoxication, according to Goodrich), he drove his BMW through the scene of a car accident in which pedestrians were attempting to free a man who was unconscious from a car that was on fire. Goodrich struck three of the pedestrians, killing two of them. Police reportedly believed that Goodrich was going 110 MPH at the time of the accident.

Dwyane Goodrich was arrested on charges of vehicular manslaughter and eventually convicted on two counts of criminally negligent homicide. In January of 2006, the families of the victims were successful in getting 5 years added to Goodrich’s original 7 1/2 year prison sentence. He remains in prison today.

That makes three separate traffic incidents, all involving alcohol in varying degrees, all involving former Tennessee stars and first-day NFL draft picks, and all tragically resulting in the deaths of innocent people.

I just sat here for five minutes trying to figure out what to say next, and came up with nothing. What can you say?

In the case of Donte Stallworth, he has seen a high profile alum (Little) and a former teammate (Goodrich) kill people because they were driving under the influence, or in Goodrich’s case, at a minimum driving out of control. He has also seen Little essentially get lucky making the same mistake again, being arrested for drunk driving but thankfully not injuring anyone.

I realize there there is a certain element of “bad luck” involved in tragedies such as these. But as Mike Florio said earlier today over at PFT regarding the three individual stories of former UT players killing people with their cars,”It’s most likely a coincidence. But the gravity of the consequences tells us that it would make plenty of sense for someone in Knoxville to explore the possible existence of a something other than randomness.”

Moreover, these three incidents are far from the only brushes with the law for former Tennessee stars from the late 90s and early 00s. A brief, and probably not comprehensive, rundown of the embarrassing litany of former UT player trouble:

Albert Haynesworth

Sticking with the theme of traffic trouble, new Washington Redskin Albert Haynesworth was recently indicted on two misdeAlbert Hayneworth Steps on Andre Gurodemeanor traffic charges stemming for a car accident in December 2008. This came on the heels of traffic charges in 2006 that were dismissed by a Putnam County, TN judge on the grounds that the offenses occurred outside of their jurisdiction.

Haynesworth also famously stepped on the face of Andre Gurode during a game in 2006. This is only the most highly publicized anger management issue involving Haynesworth.

He reportedly once kicked former teammate Justin Hartwig in the chest during training camp with the Tennessee Titans, and had a history of temper issues while at the University of Tennessee. One such story involved Haynesworth fighting with teammate Will Ofenheusle, leaving practice, and then returning with a long pole looking for Ofenheusle. Phil Fulmer stopped Haynesworth before he could use the pole and he was suspended for half a game.

Shaun Ellis

Shaun Ellis arrested in December 2008 for marijuana possession, driving without insurance and speeding. While at Tennessee, Ellis was charged with felony assault of a woman in April 1999 after allegedly striking a woman in the head with a glass after she threw a drink in his face at a party. Ellis agreed to pay the woman’s medical bills, undergo an assessment to see if he needs drug or alcohol treatment, and maintain a 2.5 GPA.

Former Tennessee RB Travis Henry has fathered nine kids with 9 different womenTravis Henry

A few months after being released by the Denver Broncos because “his commitment was lacking,” Travis Henry was arrested in October of 2008 on suspicion of knowingly and intentionally conspiring to distribute and posses with intent to distribute cocaine. He was eventually placed on house arrest.

Henry famously, and disturbingly, has also fathered nine children by nine different women and is currently embroiled in a series of lawsuits for back child support payments. On March 14th, Henry was jailed for falling $16,600 behind on support for one of his kids. He currently owes $170,000/year in child support payments.

Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis was charged with conspiring to possess with the intent to distribute five kilograms of cocaine and using a cell phone in the commission of the first count. In February of 2005, Lewis began a 4-month prison term for trying to set up the drug deal. He was also suspended 4 games in the 2004 for a repeat violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. He served the suspension while on IR, missing 4 game checks.

Others

Cedrick Wilson was arrested for punching his ex-girlfriend in the face while at a restaurant. He was subsequently cut by the Steelers. Travis Stephens was arrested, according to the page that contains his mugshot at the Montgomery Country Sheriffs Office website, for “drugs – simple possession/casual exchange.” Deon Grant, according to WRAL.com report from January 2004, got into enough trouble that owner Jerry Richardson reportedly told him he was either going to get his “stuff together” or the Panthers would have to let him go because they were trying to clean up the franchise in the wake of the Rae Carruth scandal.

Each of the players listed in this post helped contribute to one of the most successful eras in the storied history of Tennessee football. From 1995 through the 1998 championship season, Tennessee went 45-5. Leonard Little graduated with Peyton Manning after the 1997 season, with the rest of the players listed above either contributing to the 1998 title or to the success of the subsequent seasons. In total, from 1995 through 2001, Tennessee went 73-14 and won 4 bowl games. And each season, because of their ridiculous talent level, Tennessee entered the year with legitimate hopes of SEC and National Titles.

Just look at the draft history of that era for Tennessee football:

  • 1996: 8 players drafted (2 first day picks)
  • 1997: 3 players drafted (2 first day picks)
  • 1998: 7 players drafted (3 first day picks, including Peyton Manning #1 overall and Little in 3rd round.)
  • 1999: 6 players drafted (3 first day picks)
  • 2000: 9 players drafted (8 first day picks, including Lewis and Ellis in 1st round, Goodrich and Grant in 2nd round)
  • 2001: 5 players drafted (2 first day picks, including Henry in 2nd round)
  • 2002: 10 players drafted (4 first day picks, including Stallworth and Haynesworth in 1st round)

While it is perhaps not on the same level of the University of Miami over the same time span, it is still an impressive display of talent compiled on a yearly basis by the Volunteers. Unfortunately, once these players went into the NFL, many succeeded on the football field but proved unable to stay clean off of it.

Donte Stallworth Detained for Potential DUI in Fatal Traffic AccidentFor me personally, the story of Donte Stallworth yesterday really hit home more than any of the others. Part of the reason is because he currently plays for the Cleveland Browns and the other part is that Donte has always been one of my favorite Volunteer players ever. He was so electric as a freshman in 1998 and throughout his career in Knoxville, and he brought the same excitement to the NFL when he was healthy.

But the incident that occurred yesterday was another crushing reminder that many of the Volunteer players I grew up watching and admiring were not worth much admiration in the first place. I am not one who looks to athletes for guidance in any way, or to be role models, but I also don’t want to see lists like the one above come from the team I root for. I was an Indiana basketball fan long before I was a Tennessee football fan, so character and off-court/off-field conduct has always meant something to me.

With so much ridiculousness swirling around the Tennessee program recently because of Lane Kiffin and his clownishness, the most recent off-field tragedy involving a former Volunteer may shift the focus to the story that is even more embarrassing: the continued run-ins with the law of former Volunteer football players. And unfortunately, these run-ins have been much more egregiously severe than the usual run-of-the-mill type stuff for NFL players like marijuana possession, getting into fights, or even gun possession.

The response to my aforementioned article about Ohio State WRs getting into trouble was that a similar list could be made for any program in the country. And I will grant that point as probably correct. But can you find any other school that can claim three alums who have killed innocent people?

It has not been easy to be a Tennessee fan over the last few years, almost exclusively because of the team’s putrid on-field performance. But after hearing about Donte Stallworth yesterday, then researching this post and reflecting on the program’s seeming inability to prepare players for life after college, my Volunteer pride has a reached an all-time low.

I know that you can’t blame Tennessee or Phil Fulmer exclusively for all of the problems that have been caused by Vols in the NFL. And I know that luck and tragic circumstances have a lot to do with the frightening volume of catastrophic accidents and other legal problems involving Vol alums. Still, the fact that I could research this post for a half hour and come up with the list above is a frightening and disturbing fact.

For all of those who remember the 1998 season, Tennessee very easily could have lost three games that year. The opener against Syracuse was saved for the Vols by a phantom pass interference call that kept the game-winning drive alive. If Fred Taylor hadn’t fumbled on the 1-yard line, or if Collins Cooper wasn’t a complete choke artist, Florida probably wins that epic battle. And Clint Stoerner’s gift fumble lives on in infamy. The result of all of these gifts of fate was Tennessee’s first national championship since 1967.

In the year’s since 1998, Tennessee is just 85-41 with 3 bowl victories, and that record plummets to 38-21 over the last four years. Terrible? No. But far, far below the standards that Tennessee fans had become accustomed too. Add in the four deaths caused by former Vol players, and the litany of other issues detailed in this post that have happened since 1998, and it makes me pause to seriously wonder if a deal with the devil had to be made to bring that 1998 title home.

It is as reasonable an explanation as any for why the University of Tennessee football program has officially become Outlaw U. There is, at worst, a terrible and systemic problem on good ‘ol Rocky Top; and at best, a harrowing series of tragic coincidences has taken place that has brought disgrace to a once proud football program.

After a day in which a wife lost a husband and a daughter lost a father, considering the implications of the Donte Stallowrth accident within the context of college football probably seems insensitive and unnecessary. But at what point should an “institution of higher learning” be held accountable when so many of its highly publicized and pampered football player student-athletes continue to prove that they don’t really seem to learn anything? (Or, to be more specific, don’t seem to learn anything that prevents them from being the preventable and proximate cause of the loss of innocent human life.)

It might seem ridiculous to ask, “what former Tennessee player will kill someone next?” But it might have also seemed ridiculous to ask that after the Dwayne Goodrich tragedy. Then Donte Stallworth’s accident happened, and another man lost his life.

And it probably seemed even more ridiculous to ask that after Leonard Little’s first accident. But the Goodrich tragedy, Stallworth’s accident, and a second DUI arrest for Little have all occurred since.

So maybe asking the question, and doing something proactive as an answer, might have saved lives — making the question itself not so ridiculous at all.

The NFL deserves as much, if not more, culpability than the University of Tennessee. These incidents did not occur on Tennessee’s watch, but rather when these players were in the NFL. I know that players get educated about off-field conduct, and driving after drinking specifically, but maybe just educating them is not enough. Aggressive and often reckless behavior on the field is what got these guys D1 scholarships and then to the NFL in the first place. Since the NFL and college football programs profit off of this on-field aggression, perhaps they should be more responsible for helping to curb its negative consequences off the field.

So I will ask the question: What former Tennessee player (or NFL player in general) will kill someone next? 100% success in prevention is obviously an unreasonable goal, but I sure hope the University of Tennessee and the NFL do something proactive to increase the odds as much as possible of the answer to that question being “no one.”

Browns Banter: Why Has the Browns Offense Been So Bad in 2008?

ken-dorsey

Cleveland Browns Offensive StrugglesLast year, the Cleveland Browns explosive offense made it the media darling with a 2008 schedule to match – including three Monday Night games.

About the only thing you could say about the Browns scoring this season, is that they managed to score points on Monday night, unbelievably beating the New York Football Giants 35-14, and winning on the frozen tundra of Buffalo 29-27.

Is it too unrealistic to expect the real offense to return on Monday night against Philadelphia?

I think so. After all both Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are out with injuries and third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey proved on Sunday against the Titans why he will climb no higher. Not only is Ken Dorsey rather wooden in the pocket, but he is a slow reader of defense and is a very good target for blitzing linemen.

Ken Dorsey - Cleveland Browns

Chuck Crow/The Plain DealerBrowns quarterback Ken Dorsey is sacked by the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

But despite the quarterback, Cleveland, at 4-9, played seven games with fewer than two touchdowns, Terry Pluto of The Plain Dealer, recently pointed out.

To me, it seems that when Cleveland gets into the Red Zone, it is treated like the DMZ (Demilitiarized Zone) was in Viet-Nam. The players tighten up, then try to sneak in either through a rushing play or a pass – and are usually stopped.

The 2007 season saw the Browns have just two games of fewer than two touchdowns – and one was the 8-0 win against Buffalo at home in a blizzard. The other was the 34-7 defeat at the hands of the Steelers – the game that Charlie Frye started; the game where Frye was in the locker room the second half packing for Seattle.

The 28-9 drubbing at the hands of Tennessee on Sunday, was not only an embarrassment to Browns fans, but a lesson in the team’s offensive futility.

Although Dorsey threw 43 times, nothing comes to mind but a 25-yard pass to wide receiver Braylon Edwards in the first quarter. And although he was only sacked once, he was hit 11 times. The last time I could actually watch the game, Dorsey was limping over to the sidelines as Browns color commentator and former Brown, Doug Dieken, remarked, “Boy, he sure is going to be sore, this week.”

The Browns rank twenty-seventh in points scored and twenty-ninth in scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at 38 percent; compared to twelfth and 54 percent a year ago.

What the heck happened? The long Cleveland curse?

First, the sure-handed and team leader Joe Jerevicius, after his sixth surgery to overcome a staph infection to his knee, was placed on injured reserve. Then, injuries and a one-game suspension kept tight end Kellen Winslow out of three games. Both of these guys can catch the ball and take the hit afterward.

Braylon Edwards got a case of the “yips”, and dropped at least eighteen balls so far this season, but more importantly, he has had only three touchdown catches compared to 16 one year ago.

Running back Jamal Lewis ran seven times for about seven yards on Sunday and has dropped from 4.4 yardsThe Cleveland Browns Offense Has Struggled per carry last year to 3.5, according to statistics compiled by Pluto.

The Browns also stuck with Derek Anderson too long, even though he completed less than half of his passes.

Brady Quinn did provide a spark in the 33-30 loss to Denver and the 29-27 win over Buffalo but that was short-lived since he fractured his finger against the Bills and has been reduced to standing on the sidelines in street clothes and a gigantic bandage.

So with three games left, why not play the back-ups and see what they can do? Why not play more wildcat with Joshua Cribbs standing back beside Dorsey?

Maybe it is because there are three games left and Romeo Crennel and Rob Chudzinski are both playing for their jobs. It’s not over ‘til it’s over, after all, and if I just play it safe, maybe they won’t blame me for the Browns nose dive, they must be thinking.

Indeed, at times Crennel stand flat-footed to watch his team’s underwhelming performance as if he is already someplace else or is in a kind of shock of what is happening.

A good coach discovers the players best strengths and uses them to make plays and win games.

The coaches seem to be playing a bit of Marty-(Schottenheimer)ball, playing not to lose, playing it safe, playing a prevent defense, when an aggressive offense is what it takes to win in the NFL.

Whether it is Marty-ball, Romeo-ball or Chud-ball, it is not only not working, but has plunged Browns fans into a funk and owner Randy Lerner (hopefully) burning up the phone lines and emails to find replacements for next year.

Monday night is the perfect time to show the Browns can still play football.

Get out the playbook, fellas, plot a few creative plays, go out there and in the spirit of the great innovator Paul Brown, score from the Red Zone and win a game.

As always, go Browns!