Weeks has spent most of the year in the leadoff role, playing well enough to be selected as the All-Star starter at second base. He’s a guy who is crucial to the Brewers if they want to make a playoff run, perhaps even moreso than guys like Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder. Braun and Fielder are replaceable for a period of time (though certainly not both together), because I think their roles as run producers can be supplanted by the other getting hot or players like Casey McGehee or Corey Hart stepping up.

But Weeks is different.

His combination of speed, power, hustle and versatility within the Milwaukee lineup makes him, in my opinion, the player the Brewers can least afford to lose. As a Brewers fan, here’s hoping Weeks is only out about 2-3 weeks and Milwaukee can tread water in the NL Central until then.

The injury also got me to thinking who the most irreplaceable players on other contenders are. Like in the Brewers’ case, it’s not always the best player, but often it is the player that has a unique role within the team that has made them successful to this point so far.

San Francisco Giants: Brian Wilson

In San Fran, the choice is fairly obvious. The offense is by no means spectacular, and the pitching staff could withstand the loss of a guy like Tim Lincecum for a period of time. The guy they could not afford to lose is Wilson. The offense does not give him more than a one-run lead very often, but knowing that they have a lockdown closer like him in the pen makes the Giants the team they are.

St. Louis Cardinals: Jaime Garcia

When healthy, the offense is one of the best in the bigs, led by Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and the like. The pitching staff hasn’t been quite as good, suffering the loss of Adam Wainwright and dealing with a below-average year from ace Chris Carpenter. Enter Garcia, who is leading the Cards in wins (10), ERA (3.01) and strikeouts (111).

Philadelphia Phillies: Shane Victorino

The key to many great pitching staffs is a great defense behind them, and the best teams are solid defensively up the middle. Victorino provides Gold Glove-caliber defense in centerfield, all while hitting in the ever-important fifth hole, right after Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. And so far this season, Victorino has delivered, leading the Phillies with an OPS of .885.

Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury

The Red Sox can spend all the money they want on guys like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, but I think most people would agree that they have only had a 50 percent success rate on those guys so far this season. Their most important player has been Ellsbury, their leadoff man, who has played excellent defense and has driven in 60 runs, fourth on the team behind Gonzo, Kevin Youkilis and Big Papi. He’s also got a .383 OBP and has been wreaking havoc on the basepaths whenever he’s gotten on, stealing 29 bases, good for sixth in the league.

New York Yankees: CC Sabathia

The Yankees have bought a high-octane offense, but the most important person to the Bronx Bombers is their ace. The Yankees do not have a great pitching staff and will rely on the league wins leader, who is sporting a solid 2.56 ERA and is third in the league in strikeouts (156), come playoff time. As a Brewers fans, I’ve seen first hand how great CC can be down the stretch, and I expect nothing less in New York.

Texas Rangers: Adrian Beltre

The Rangers face a similar situation as the Brewers, needing to replace an All-Star infielder. The Rangers are built on offense, so they will be able to withstand the loss of Beltre in that respect given that they have players like Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz still in their lineup. Beltre’s defense is what sets him apart from the rest of his teammates. The Rangers should be able to hold off the rest of the mediocre AL West, but losing Beltre does not help their cause.

Chicago White Sox: Jake Peavy

Guys like Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin should be enough to do what will be required of the offense to win the AL Central, and the South Siders have their ace in Mark Buehrle. It will be the rest of the pitching staff that will need to step up in order for the White Sox to be really successful, and much of that success rests on how well Jake Peavy can pitch from here on out. He has an ERA over six in his last ten outings, where he is 3-4, and Chicago will need more production out of him to hold of the Tigers (and the Twins, perhaps?) in their division.

One of the hot rumors making the rounds right now is that White Sox GM Ken Williams is so enamored with Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez that he might – might – be willing to include 2B Gordon Beckham in a deal for the lefty power hitter.

Via the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors (my favorite site for important baseball news and rumors like this), who wrote about the White Sox interest in trading for Adrian Gonzalez last night, I stumbled upon an article by Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com that discusses how well Jake Peavy is fitting in with the White Sox (Yeeesss!).

In the article, Peavy is quoted expressing his desire to bring his former teammate to the South Side. He has also reportedly discussed it with Williams, who we all know would probably trade his soul for a young, power hitting, lefty bat.

Here is the key excerpt from the Knobler article:

“I want Adrian [Gonzalez] to be my teammate over here,” Peavy said.

Interesting thought.

Peavy said he has already discussed the idea with White Sox general manager Ken Williams. Williams didn’t really need the suggestion, because the talk in White Sox camp is that whenever the Padres decide to move on trading their first baseman, Williams will be one of the first in line to make a deal.

“That’s really what we need, a big left-handed hitter,” one Sox person said. “They’re saying Kenny would give anything to get him, maybe even [Gordon] Beckham.”

As any White Sox fan knows, the minute you start talking about a realistic possibility of Beckham being involved in a trade, it’s something to pay attention to. I cannot remember another White Sox youngster since Frank Thomas having as much hype, obvious ability, and immediate success as Beckham.

Now, the obvious caveat before I go any further is that we really have no idea just how serious any of this is, at least regarding Beckham. We know that Adrian Gonzalez will most likely be made available, and we know that Ken Williams would chop off his own finger to get him, but trading the anointed future of the franchise is a whole different story.

Still, for purposes of fun blog discussion, let’s assume that Williams really would trade Beckham. (And if there is any GM who would make a move that bold, it’s Kenny.)

Pros for White Sox of trading a package that includes Gordon Beckham for Adrian Gonzalez

1) Adrian Gonzalez is young, proven, durable, and very, very good at the plate and in the field. Take one look at his numbers and you can see why Williams probably starts hyperventilating any time Gonzalez’s name comes up:

• He’s played in at least 156 games for four straight seasons.
• His HR totals have gone from 24 to 30 to 36 to 40 over the past four years, all while playing in a stadium that is usually awful for hitters.
• In 2009, Gonzalez walked ten more times than he a struck out, a huge accomplishment for a guy whose previous BB:K splits had been 52:113, 65:140, and 74:142.
• In addition to his .506 career slugging percentage while playing his home games in a pitcher’s park, Gonzalez has won two straight Gold Gloves.

2) Adding Gonzalez to the roster would give Ozzie and Kenny the everyday, non-DH, middle-of-the-order, lefty bat that they have coveted for so long. And he’d be entrenched there for the foreseeable future.

3) Young Gordon is as “can’t-miss” as they come, and had an auspicious debut last season, but is still young and significantly unproven in comparison to Gonzalez.

Cons for White Sox of trading a package that includes Gordon Beckham for Adrian Gonzalez

1) The reason why San Diego would trade Gonzalez is because they won’t be able to afford him, whereas the White Sox will have Beckham under contract for the next few years for a lot less than Gonzalez will demand. For a team that is already committed to large salaries for guys like Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, and others, can the White Sox afford another mammoth contract and still maintain enough financial flexibility to sign guys like Carlos Quentin long-term and fill out the rest of the roster with solid players?

2) Gonzalez’s power numbers are great, but it is easier to find power at the 1B position than it is to find the offensive production everyone expects from Beckham at the 2B slot. Thus, you cannot simply make an apples-to-apples comparison between the expected offensive output of the two. You have to consider the opportunity cost of who would play 1B next to Beckham after this season (if Paulie is gone) against who would play 2B if the Sox traded Beckham for Gonzalez.

Additionally, while Gonzalez’s Gold Gloves are an added bonus, the White Sox have done just fine with a guy of Paul Konerko’s defensive abilities – solid, but not GG-worthy – at 1B.

3) Gordon Beckham is still only 23 years old and we won’t know what his true power potential is for another 2-3 years. His best years are still to come. And while I have no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez has some very, very good years ahead of him, we may have seen his career year last season.

A lot of players peak at age 27, which is the age that Gonzalez played at last year. Although I would assume that Gonzalez could play similarly well for at least the next 2-3 years, and certainly playing in the hitter’s haven of U.S. Cellular Field would make his numbers look better, the question is do you want to pay a massive contract to a guy when you might have missed his best season? (Remember, Gonzalez’s .958 OPS last year crushed his career average and previous career high of .871. Will he revert back to his career mean?) Or, is more prudent financially to enjoy Beckham’s growth – and his career years – for what will most likely be significantly less money?

I will admit that this is a really tough one to analyze and take a position on. My gut reaction upon hearing it was hell no, both in terms of whether I’d do it and whether or not I thought the White Sox would actually do it. But the more you read about Williams’ affinity for Gonzalez and lefty power bats, plus the presence of Peavy, plus the relative youth and production of Gonzalez, the more such a trade becomes not only plausible…but down right possible and attractive.

Still, my personal position upon considering everything written above and trying to remove all subjectivity (which is, admittedly, probably impossible), is no.

Having Adrian Gonzalez would be wonderful, but I believe that there have to be other avenues to get power and solid defense at the 1B position that would not require such a significant financial investment and the loss of Beckham. Gordon is not just a terrific prospect; he is also the kind of player/personality combo that could become a star in the city of Chicago along the current lines of Derrick Rose or, long-term, like a Ryne Sandberg.

I’m not smart enough to know how you specifically value this quality – part of the reason why I’m a blogger and not a front office exec – but I do know that it’s important to the long-term value of the franchise. Of course, if you think acquiring Gonzalez gives you a better chance to win another World Series, with all of the financial impact considered, that obviously trumps Beckham’s potential Windy City star power.

On the diamond, having Beckham at a middle infield slot gives you a real luxury of getting power and offensive production, plus adequate-to-good defense, from a spot where you don’t always get offense. It is a lot harder to find a potential .300-20-100-20 player at 2B than it is to find a guy who could hit .270 with 25-30 HR at 1B. And if you’ve got the premium production at 2B, you can live with those numbers at a corner infield position.

So no, at this point, I don’t want the White Sox to lose Gordon Beckham’s love tonight, or any night, in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez. I do, however, remain open to alternate opinions, stats, or points of view, because I know they are probably out there. The comment section is yours to agree or disagree, and please do. I certainly do not claim to have all the answers, and the answer to this question could very well shape what the next decade looks like on the South Side of Chicago.

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* – Gordon Beckham photo credit: Sun-Times

* – Adrian Gonzalez photo credit: Live from California

In Phil Rogers’ quick-hits column at the Tribune today (via FanNation T&R), he says that “some baseball people” believe that the White Sox and Cubs could be interested in swapping Jake Peavy and Carlos Zambrano.

Before I show you the excerpt, let me give you my unequivocal initial reaction to this White Sox-Cubs trade rumor, from my perspective as a White Sox fan: hell no!

Here is what Rogers has to say:

Some baseball people believe the White Sox could have interest in the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano, possibly even for the newly acquired Jake Peavy. It would be a way for two teams without much money to spend to shake things up, but wouldn’t Peavy have more value than Zambrano at this point?

You’re damn right Jake Peavy has more value than Carlos Zambrano…at least, as far as I’m concerned. 

Take a quick look at their career numbers:

• Carlos Zambrano: 237 GS, 105-67, 3.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .230 BAA, 1.899:1 K/BB ratio
• Jake Peavy: 214 GS, 94-68, 3.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .231 BAA, 3.1:1 K/BB ratio

While their career numbers are not that much different, and while an argument can be made that Peavy’s numbers have been inflated by the home park he’s pitched in his entire career in San Diego, and while Zambrano’s career playoff numbers are actually much better than Peavy’s, there is just something innate about the two pitchers that makes me not hesitate in saying I’d rather have Peavy.

And I promise it has nothing to do with the fact that Peavy has been outstanding in the two starts he’s made for Chicago as the White Sox limp down the stretch in ’09 (2-0, 13 K, 4 BB, 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

For whatever reason, I have absolutely no faith in Carlos Zambrano to come through in big spots and consistently take the mound with the right mindset every fifth day. He is far too much of a loose cannon, and too prone to bouts of wildness, to truly be counted on as an ace.

In Mark Buehrle-Jake Peavy-John Danks-Gavin Floyd, the White Sox may well have the best pitching rotation in the American League next year. I’m not saying that subbing Zambrano for Peavy would necessarily change that, but I like the look of it much better with Peavy.

And do we really want loose cannon Ozzie Guillen managing loose cannon Carlos Zambrano? Something about that mixture just seems to combustible to work.

In the end, there is really no clear statistical argument that separates the two, but I still know I’d rather have Peavy on the South Side. What do you think?

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* – Jake Peavy photo credit: Charles Rex Arbogast, Associated Press via Chicago Tribune

* – Carlos Zambrano photo credit: Foul Balls

I do not think that anyone will argue with me when I say that one of our biggest liabilities is the pitching staff.  More specifically, the bullpen.  There are certain pitchers that come out in relief and all you can hope for is that they are not going to pitch batting practice.  I cannot explain the level of frustration that I feel when I am listening to a game and I hear that Dotel or Linebrink are warming up.

The move to bring in Jake Peavy was a good one.  But if and when he comes back this season, he will still need run support and that appears to be lacking as of late. While I am a supporter of Freddy Garcia due to his performance in 2005, I am not really sure if he gives us a greater chance of winning the division this season.

Speaking of the division, are we just hanging around or what?  We’re not gaining any ground on the Tigers and the Twins are now right up there with us due to our respective performances in the last two series. 

I am just not sure if what we are seeing is a team that has just lost its stride and is going to limp into the rest of the season or one with the potential to still turn things around.  Trust me when I say that I hope that I am wrong, but I think that the writing is on the wall and not even a healthy Jake Peavy can come in the save the day.

Considering that he’s been out for two months, this is understandable.  I think we’d all just gotten our hopes up that Peavy would be back sooner rather than later.

From today’s Trib by Mark Gonzalez:

While Jake Peavy returned to U.S. Cellular Field to rejoin his teammates, it now appears he might not make his White Soxdebut until the end of an 11-game trip at the earliest.

“I don’t think that’s smart,” Peavy said Wednesday of focusing on a return date. “The time when I go out and am able to get six or seven innings under my belt, feeling good, knowing I’m able to execute a pitch in the seventh as well as I can do it in the first, and throw the ball where I want to at 100 percent, when I see that day, we’re going to go from there.”

Peavy said setting a specific date “seems to put on too much pressure.”

So, it looks like Sox fans will have to patient as we await the debut of our new star pitcher.  Luckily, we were able to hit some long balls last night off of Zack Greinke and get a good start from Jose to take a 2-1 series win over the Royals. We need another 2-1 or 3-0 set against the Orioles, and then it’s off to perhaps the most difficult road trip of the season. If Jake Peavy is pitching by the end of it, looks like it will be a bonus for the Sox.

First, let’s talk about Peavy.

It had been rumored that Jake Peavy might make his White Sox debut on September 3rd when the pale hose travel to the North Side for a makeup game with the Cubs. Everyone seemed excited about this because obviously we’d love to crush Cubs to win the season series 4-2 while furthering erode the North Siders’ playoff chances and bolstering our own.  Plus, the irony of Peavy doing it would be delicious considering how much the Cubs wanted to pry him away from San Diego.

However, it’s not happening…and for good reason.

As reported this morning by Dave Van Dyck of the Tribune, the White Sox are not going to chance having Peavy bat and run the bases. Hence, he will only pitching in the safe haven of AL ballparks (possibly as soon as August 28th against the Yankees, depending on how he feels after his next rehab start) where his healing ankle can take cover in the dugout while the White Sox are up to bat.

“He’s not going to pitch over there (at Wrigley),” Sox general manager Ken Williams said. “He got hurt on the bases.”

This is a pretty easy one: I agree. Why chance it? Peavy reportedly looked great in his first rehab start at AAA Charlotte (3 innings, 43 pitches, 1 hit, 5 Ks), and will be heavily counted on down the stretch with our pitching staff looking a bit wobbly lately. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have put together some solid starts recently, but Mark Buehrle has struggled since his perfecto and Jose Contreras has just been awful. 

And then there is the lingering question mark of who takes the ball every fifth day now that Clayton Richard is in San Diego. That’s where we get to the other half of the headline, regarding the former hero returning to the South Side. 

Freddy Garcia, who won 40 games for the White Sox between 2004-2006, takes the ball tonight in the second game of a huge series against the Kansas City Royals. He will be opposed by Gil Meche, who is only 5-9 on the season, but has a solid career track record against the White Sox. 

Garcia has only pitched 73 innings since leaving Chicago in 2006 after going 3-0 in the 2005 playoffs and helping bring a World Series title to the Windy City. He failed to gain traction with the Phillies or Tigers and is now back on the South Side being managed by his good friend Ozzie Guillen.

As Scott Merkin reported at chisox.com, while Garcia’s right shoulder may not quite be back to its old strength, he was hitting the low-90s on the gun in his last rehab start.  Plus, his manager and teammates have confidence that Garcia has that “wily ‘ol vet” experience and ability to still be effective and help the club.

“I’m really glad to be back,” said Garcia, who joined the White Sox on Monday after their six-game, seven-day West Coast road trip. “It took me a long time to come back, but I’m glad to be here.”

…

With Jose Contreras struggling mightily over his past six starts, allowing 24 earned runs over 28 1/3 innings, a strong effort from Garcia could propel him into a permanent starting spot over the season’s final six weeks. Manager Ozzie Guillen will go with the hot hand, both in the field and on the mound, but cautions fans not to expect the 2005 Garcia to take the field against the Royals.

“He knows how to pitch, he knows how to get people out,” said Guillen. “I think he’ll be fine. He knows how to do stuff out there.”

“All I need to know is that he’s healthy and he’s got his arm strength to where it is at a point where he can effectively use his offspeed stuff to complement [his fastball],” said White Sox general manager Ken Williams. “His fastball doesn’t have to be 93 [mph] because of his second and third pitch.”

We know that Jake Peavy will have a spot in the rotation when he returns, and now it looks like two of the 2005 heroes will be duking it out for the 5th spot. Regardless, it will good to see Freddy Garcia back on the bump for the White Sox tonight, and I expect the Comiskey faithful to give him an appreciative hand when he takes the mound.

Hopefully he gets an ovation when he walks off the mound as well, because that would most likely mean that he has put the White Sox in a position to win. Sitting two games back, with September rapidly approaching, and a roadtrip to Boston, New York, and Minnesota on the horizon, the White Sox need to get as many as possible against the Royals and Orioles at home this week.

Here’s hoping “Big Game” Freddy can live up to the nickname his first time out.

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* – Jake Peavy photo credit: Bill Walker/Charlotte Knights via Knights website

* – Freddy Garcia photo credit: HotFootBlog

Here’s a quick teaser. The analysis of and story behind the White Sox trade for Jake Peavy involves the following elements:

• Chicago
• “The biggest balls in the game.”
• The number 23
• Ken Rosenthal
• Potentially the best pitching rotation in the AL over the next three years, and one that makes my favorite team a darkhorse candidate to make some real noise in October should they find a way to squeeze into the playoffs.

Okay, time to tie all of these parts together.

First off, kudos to MLB Trade Rumors for absolutely hitting another grand slam the past few weeks with their coverage of the trade deadline. No one, and I mean no one, brings together all of the lightning-fast stories from every corner of the country like Tim and the good folks at MLBTR. If you are a baseball fan and don’t have them bookmarked, shame on you.

When I logged on today and decided to check out what the reaction was to the White Sox dealing four solid pitching prospects for a former Cy Young Award winner who is currently on the DL and has been criticized (even by me) for having pitcher-friendly-home-park-inflated numbers, MLBTR is the first place I went. And sure enough, they had found two great articles that told the remarkable story about how Kenny Williams made the Peavy trade happen at the 11:59th hour.

Before we go any further, here are links to those stories, along with compelling excerpts from each:

ChiSox pull off last-second gamble with Peavy deal — (Ken Rosenthal, FoxSports)

If it’s not my all-time favorite trade, it’s close.

It might not be a good trade, though I suspect it is. But for sheer audacity and shock value, how can anyone not like what White Sox general manager Ken Williams pulled off Friday?

“Unreal,” one general manager said of the Jake Peavy trade. “No question, it’s a very high-risk move. You’ve got to have great intestinal fortitude to do it.”

Another exec was even more blunt in describing his admiration for Williams.

“Biggest balls in the game,” he said.

…

“Literally with two minutes left, I’m on the phone with Axelrod and I’m on the phone with Kevin Towers and Rick Hahn is on the phone with Major League Baseball because it had to be in,” Williams said.

“I really didn’t think it was going to all come together in the end. I was prepared for it to not meet the deadline. It all came together with 23 seconds on the clock.”

How times change: Peavy trade comes out of nowhere — (Scott Miller, CBSSports.com)

Instead, there was ultra-aggressive, ultra-stealth White Sox GM Kenny Williams ringing Towers late Friday morning San Diego time asking about the chances of reprising that deal the two men put in place back in May before Peavy used his no-trade clause to scotch it.

That phone call led to, by far the wildest, craziest, most interesting trade of the summer.

…

Peavy was sound asleep napping with his middle son, Wyatt, 5, when he said he was awakened with a phone call just 40 minutes before the trade deadline, proposing the same thing he shot down in May.

I know that I excerpted a decent chunk out of each story, but don’t be fooled that the excerpts alone capture the whirlwind fury of the story behind the most surprising trade of the 2009 trade deadline. Go read both stories. Each provides an insightful, behind-the-scenes look at the how these trades came to fruition. 

Yes, that’s right…despite our past differences, I am strongly recommending that you go read Ken Rosenthal. He may consider me ridiculous and unprofessional, and I may have had some choice words for him privately to friends and co-workers (though I think I’ve kept it pretty clean and respectful publicly), but Rosenthal is unquestionably one of the best baseball writers out there. His account of the Peavy trade, in my opinion, is a quintessential example of why.

And now, let’s deconstruct the details.

Ken Williams, who has emerged over the past few years as one of the most proactive, respected, and forward-thinking GMs in the game, targeted Peavy long ago as a guy he wanted in Chicago. To Williams’ credit, he kept persevering until it got done. He also reportedly made a deal happen in 90 minutes when everyone, including me, had finally been lulled into thinking that the White Sox would not be major players this year at the deadline.

I think I speak for all White Sox fans and baseball observers when I say that I’ll never fall asleep on Kenny again until 4:00 has officially struck on deadline day.

Amazingly, there were four significant hurdles that had to be overcome in the 90 minutes left from when Kenny first contacted the Padres yesterday or the trade never could have come to fruition:

1. Kenny had to get Jerry Riensdorf’s approval to take on the rest of Peavy’s $8 million salary this season, and the $52 million that is owed to him to through 2012. Despite the statements we’ve heard about attendance at U.S. Cellular Field being down and the team potentially needing to hold steady or even cut payroll, Reinsdorf signed off on the deal. (Not sure what this means for a potential Jermaine Dye extension, the John Danks contract talks, and even a potential renegotiation for Mark Buehrle, but that is all to be dealt with later.)
2. Jake Peavy had to waive his no-trade clause, which he had refused to do when the trade was originally consummated between the two teams back in May. Peavy waived it, in large part I would assume, because the White Sox are contenders and built to remain contenders for the foreseeable future, while the Padres are not.
3. Just to talk to Peavy about waiving his no-trade clause, they had to get ahold of him. And as you read above in the excerpt from the Miller article, Peavy was napping with his son when they called him 40 minutes before the deadline. What if his ringer had been off? If Peavy doesn’t return the phone call, the trade does not get done and Clayton Richard starts against the Yankees last night. Crazy.
4. Not only did the White Sox, the Padres, and Peavy have to get all of the details ironed out between them, the two teams had to officially call in the trade to the MLB office. According to Ken Rosenthal’s story, they got the call in with 23 seconds to spare. Again…crazy. Can you imagine if the line was busy or Ken Williams’ cell phone was momentarily out of service? (And, on a side note, how ironic that would have been considering the name of the White Sox ballpark!?)

All of these details and many more combined to make the White Sox acquisition of Jake Peavy one of the more unlikely and exciting trades in the history of the MLB trade deadline. From the details, it appears as if karma and fate was on the side of the White Sox in getting this done. Not since Michael Jordan was roaming the Windy City have Chicago, a city icon (and that is what Ken Williams is becoming) being described as having “the biggest balls in the game”, the number 23, and last-second heroics come together in such exciting fashion. 

Now for some analysis. 

Part of the reason I wanted 24 hours to digest the trade before posting anything about it is that my opinions have been all over the map since talk of the trade originated in May. Initially, I was pumped and went so far as to create a petition for White Sox fans to sign in an effort to show Jake Peavy some South Side love. But after the trade didn’t happen, Peavy got hurt and I took a more thorough look as his career stats and splits. In so doing, I became convinced that the trade not happening was a blessing in disguise for the White Sox. So when word of the trade broke yesterday, my reservations won out and I was not as excited as a lot of other Sox fans seemed to be.

With 24 hours of perspective, reflection, and more information, I still have some reservations…but overall I am very happy with the trade and think the positives outweigh the risks and potential negatives. Furthermore, I love the fact that Ken Williams didn’t just make a deal simply to make one. He has a very specific plan for how Jake Peavy fits into the team’s plans for success this year and over the next three seasons.

Unlike many GMs, Ken Williams always thinks big and thinks in terms of championships. With the Tigers bolstering their pitching staff by adding Washburn, and the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels also having excellent front-end starters and solid depth, Williams knew the Sox needed one more really good arm to add to the trio of Mark Buehrle-Gavin Floyd-John Danks. If the White Sox can hang in the race, Peavy is saying that he will be back by the end of August; and because his injury is an ankle problem, not anything to do with his arm, there is no reason to think he won’t be his usual nasty self pretty quickly upon returning. He’ll also be fresh, which could be a huge boost not only to help the White Sox get into the playoffs, but to be better positioned to make some legit noise once there.

Additionally, if the White Sox can get something done with John Danks, they could very well have a four-man rotation of Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks signed through 2011. In an era in which starting pitching depth is usually one of the most important factors for success, you would be hard-pressed to find another organization that would not trade their rotation straight up for the rotation that the White Sox could have locked in together through 2011 (when Buehrle’s current contract ends).

Considering the young offensive talent we have in Carlos Quentin, Gordon Beckham, Chris Getz, and Alexei Ramirez, plus hopefully another couple of productive seasons from JD and Paulie, the White Sox appear poised to compete for AL Central crowns and AL pennants for at least the next 2-3 years, while also giving themselves a more realistic chance at doing serious October damage this year…if they can make it.

So, while I’m concerned that Jake Peavy’s overall numbers will drop by coming to the tougher league and pitching in a tougher park, and while I wonder what the ripple effect will be of his hefty contract, and while I think that we dealt at least two guys — Poreda and Richard — who are going to be at least solid big league starters…I throw my full support and endorsement behind this deal.

When you have a GM that you absolutely would not trade for any other GM in the game, it would be foolish not to trust him. 

Well done Kenny. Time will tell if your vision of the future effect of the Peavy deal ultimately comes to fruition, but you have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt and the benefit of fan confidence in your moves. A lot of fans would kill to have a GM who swings for a double every now and then; White Sox fans should feel pretty lucky and excited that our guy never hesitates to swing for the fences.

As my KVB so aptly put in his text message after the deal was announced yesterday: “You can put it on the board…PEAVY!”

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Here are some other reactions from out friends in the South Side blogosphere:

• Peavy (question mark, exclamation point) — (Tremendous Upside Potential)
• White Sox acquire Peavy — (Sox Machine)
• Peavy deal makes White Sox contenders in 2009 and beyond — (South Side Sox)
• Not a joke: Peavy to the White Sox — (White Sox Mix)

Enjoy your weekend everyone.

* – Ken Williams photo credit: Upper Deck Blog

I was strongly in favor of the deal at the time, even going so far as to start an online petition in hopes of helping Peavy overcome his reluctance to come to the South Side by showing him an outpouring of a support from White Sox fans. (10 supporters! Whoo-hoo! I guess not everything goes viral online…)

Holding full no-trade rights, however, Peavy was in possession of all the cards and in the end he decided to nix the deal to stay in San Diego. I, along with many other White Sox fans, was disappointed. Hanging onto Aaron Poreda was certainly a silver lining, but man was the thought of a Peavy-Buehrle lefty-righty combo atop the rotation enticing.

Who would have thought that, in retrospect, Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade would look more and more like a positive for the White Sox with each passing week.

First, there is Peavy himself. He has made only four starts since the announcement of the deal-in-principle and is currently on the DL with a strained tendon in his right ankle. And the four starts he made were not exactly stellar (perhaps because of the injury though, to be fair). Only two were quality starts and his ERA rose from 3.48 to 3.97.

Plus, a deeper look at Peavy’s career numbers perhaps shows one of the main reasons why he is so reluctant to leave San Diego, and why clowns like myself were perhaps a little too anxious to get him into the summer bandbox that is U.S. Cellular Field. Look at Peavy’s home/road splits this season:

• Home: 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .217 BAA, 62:17 K/BB
• Road: 2-2, 4.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .246 BAA, 30:11 K/BB

And for his career:

• Home: 45-31, 2.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .219 BAA, 779:212 K/BB
• Road: 47-37, 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .246 BAA, 569:223 K/BB

So this year’s numbers are to be expected based on his track record. And it’s not like I and others excited about the possibility of a Peavy trade didn’t realize this, but I know that I didn’t really consider it with the weight that I probably should have.

PetcoPark, as has been well documented, is a severe pitcher’s park. So I would assume that most San Diego pitchers have similar splits. Thus, I would expect stats like BAA and HRs against to be up on the road. What concerns me looking deeper at the stats is the vastly different K rate. For his career, Peavy’s K/BB ratio is 3.67:1 at home but drops to 2.55:1 on the road. I realize different ballparks dictate pitching guys differently and can have other subtle effects, but Peavy’s numbers specifically seem like a pretty jarring difference for a stat that takes into account what happens when the ball is not in play and is thus not affected by park dimensions or climate factors that affect ball flight.

Maybe it’s a confidence thing, maybe it’s a certain oneness with his home mound, maybe it’s just a comfort level thing of strapping on his stirrups in the home locker room. But for whatever reason, Jake Peavy is dominant at home and much more ordinary on the road. You can’t really consider his home stats when considering what kind of impact Peavy might have made in Chicago. So maybe this deal wasn’t the slam dunk that I thought it was at the time.

To be fair to myself, part of the reason for my excitement was desperation. On May 21st, the White Sox were 17-22 and our non-Buehrle pitchers had not been good or capable of any semblance of consistency. In the six weeks since then, we’ve gone 27-18 and moved to two games within first place Detroit. For a team starved for solid pitching at the time, I thought Peavy would be a great shot in the arm. It turns out that we got a great shot in the arm, it was just an internal one. Look at the numbers:

• John Danks on May 21st: 4.60 ERA | John Danks now: 3.76 ERA
• Gavin Floyd on May 21st: 7.71 ERA | Gavin Floyd now: 4.33 ERA
• Jose Conreras on May 21st: 8.19 ERA | Jose Contreras now: 4.54 ERA

Even with their terrible early season numbers still part of the whole, all three of our 2-3-4 starters have better cumulative ERAs than what Peavy has put up in starts outside of San Diego this season. And Clayton Richard’s ERA on the season is 4.75, which is only slightly worse than what Peavy has done on the road this year.

I’m not saying that Danks, Floyd, Contreras, and Richard are individually better than Jake Peavy. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball for the last half decade. But the resurgence of our pitching staff over the last six weeks has certainly made me far, far less regrettable about the trade not going through. And looking at Peavy’s inability to dominate away from home certainly makes me question just how disappointed we might have been had he come to the South Side in a deal for two of our top pitching prospects and threw a 3.9+ ERA up there over the balance of the season.

In the end, I think the Peavy to Chicago deal-that-almost-was ended up working out in the best interests of each party involved (except for the Padres of course, who desperately wanted to get rid of his contract and are now stuck because of his injury). Jake Peavy gets to stay in San Diego and pitch where he is most comfortable once he gets healthy, and the White Sox have been able to enjoy the fruits of the Danks/Floyd combo regaining their 2008 rhythm and Jose “The Phoenix” Contreras rediscovering his supreme badassness. Plus, we still have Aaron Poreda, who has now become a valuable member of one of the league’s best bullpens.

Kudos to Ken Williams for being proactive and putting the White Sox in a position to make a big splash in filling what, at the time, was a pretty glaring area of need. In retrospect though, Jake Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade was probably a blessing in disguise for the Good Guys.

* – John Danks/Gavin Floyd photo credit: AP via USA Today

It all started on Wednesday when, buoyed by my fantasy baseball team’s hot start (my team and another have already opened up a double-digit lead on the pack in a H2H league), I decided to take to the message boards with some thinly veiled trash talk at the rest of league. My team is playing the other top team next weekend so I posed the question of whether or not it was the biggest H2H matchup in May in the history of fantasy baseball – a reasonable question I think. Naturally, my hitters have struggled and my pitchers have been awful this week.

Then, on Wednesday, the Cavs were surprised by the Magic in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After watching the Cavs dominate in the first quarter, I thought it would turn into another Pistons/Hawks rout. Not so much. The Magic proved that they would be worthy Eastern Conference Finals adversaries, and if they needed any more motivation for tonight and the rest of the series Mo Williams decided to give them some: “I don’t feel this team can beat us four times. I don’t see them beating us four times.”

The only problem, of course, is that the Magic have beaten the Cavs 9 out of the last 12 times they’ve played (at least, that was the stat tossed out on the radio today) and lead the series 1-0. I’m thinking a more humble approach would work here; but the the proof will be in the pudding tonight.

Anyway, back to the B.S.

So I wake up on Thursday morning to the exciting news that the White Sox are surprisingly making a hard charge to get Jake Peavy. I run into the office and post about it here on MSF, leave to teach a class at the SBDC here in town, and then get back and hear that it’s all up to No-Trade Peavy whether the deal will go down or not.

Always willing to do anything necessary to help my teams win, I get the completely misguided inspired idea to start an online petition to show Jake Peavy support from White Sox fans. In my insanity zeal to somehow make a difference, I convince myself that I can promote the petition, get tens of thousands of White Sox fans to sign it, and it gets added to the “Pro” list Jake Peavy is making as he weighs his options. Then he comes to Chicago, ultimately does an interview with MSF, leads the White Sox to the World Series, and his sublime K/BB ratio inspires Iran and Israel to schedule a Texas-style square dance at which they will squash their difference and lead a united front for peace in the Middle East.

Well, we all know what happened. A measly nine people signed my measly petition and Jake Peavy pretty quickly soon thereafter decided to stay with San Diego. Oh, and then the White Sox got shellacked 20-1, as if we needed to feel any worse after getting jilted at the alter.

I would go into more detail about my thoughts on Jake Peavy and the White Sox from yesterday, but Bobby from Tremendous Upside Potential pretty much said everything I was already thinking. Hop on over to TUP and read his post.

(By the way, the sublimely perfect picture to see there of an unnamed White Sox fan on his back was lifted from PhotoBucket, courtesy of the aptly named profile “White Sox Suck.” Ridiculous.)

So, that all kind of sucked. In more positive news, Josh Cribbs visited the Browns facility yesterday and even took part in a team meeting, although he is still not taking part in any on-field activities. But the fact that he is having dialogue with Mangini at least appears to be a positive step in the right direction on the surface. And Brady Quinn has apparently vaulted into the lead for the Browns QB race, mostly by virtue of the fact that Eric Mangini had to pick someone to take the first team reps. I just can’t get excited about our QB situation heading into this season after the debacle of last year. Every time I think about Quinn and Anderson is reminds of my favorite South Park episode…

And on that same subject, why is Phil Dawson not attending the voluntary minicamp? Purportedly he wants a new contract, to which I would respond: “Dude, you’re a kicker, and we were 4-12 last year.” The way I look at it, kickers get new contracts when things are good and everyone else has been taken care of. I realize that Phil Dawson was perhaps the Browns’ most valuable player last year, but shouldn’t that be a clear sign to Browns management that we need to spend money elsewhere to upgrade our roster? I love you Phil, I really do, and I think you’re a great kicker. But consider the timing. A 4-12 team probably has bigger fish to fry than a solid, but still pretty replaceable kicker. (Or as my old high school buddy Ssengats might call him, “a piece of equipment.”)

Before I being the work day, time to pass a little love along to some of our good friends here at MSF.

The guys over at Sharapova’s Thigh continue to entertain with their Random Retro Baseball Player series. The most recent highlight? Mark Gubicza, who was a pretty good pitcher for the Royals. Now, feel free to go to the Sharapova’s Thigh home page and scroll down. You will not be disappointed, as Mark Gubicza is clearly the least attractive person pictured. The fact that I have chosen the post about Gubicza to link to, when I could have chosen any number of hot chicks now has me wondering if I am way too obsessed with baseball…

Next, step over to Hugging Harold Reynolds (my favorite blog name ever, by the way). We are always proud to support any post that includes a picture of Ben Roethlisberger looking like a drunk neanderthal.

Our buddies at Sparty and Friends have uncovered the movie poster for Spike Lee’s next film about Michael Vick doin’ work.

Robert Littal, the bona fide sports expert, has a post that includes something you don’t see every day: criticism of LeBron James. For its uniqueness alone, I send you over there.

And finally, I sent you on your way this morning with a link over to Josh Q. Public, who is already on his way to a weekend of ridiculous fun in Las Vegas. Since I’ve never been there before, I figured I’d try to live vicariously through the Elvis Presley video he posted yesterday. Not surprisingly, it didn’t work. But we here at MSF always support weekends of irresponsibility, debauchery, and good old male bonding. Have fun out there JQ. Thanks for making me even less excited about my work day today.

Who knows if it will help, gain any traction, or ever get back to Peavy, but I started an online petition where White Sox fans can show their love to Jake Peavy. Here is the link:

http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/peavywhitesox

I set a goal of 10,000 signatures and I have no idea if that is too ambitious or not ambitious enough. But maybe, just maybe, if Jake sees all the love that will be showered down upon him by making the move to the White Sox, he will be just a little bit more convinced to come and become a South Sider, a good guy wearing black, and a postseason pitcher well into October.

Sign up for the petition and I’ll do my part to try and promote it and get it some pub, and perhaps even get it to Peavy if we have a decent enough number of signatures.

And if I hit publish and read that’s already decided not to come, well, I tried to do my part right? (BTW…Sox are currently down 10-0 to the Twins. If the two game winning streak fooled you into thinking we couldn’t use a Peavy-like shot in the arm, you’re crazy!)

Update: Well, it looks like the petition was way too late and way too late (and never mattered at all).  Breaking news on the ESPN Bottom Line just now that Peavy has rejected the trade to the White Sox.  He must have tuned in for today’s 20-1 shellacking and thought, “Umm, yeah…about that.  I don’t think so.”

It was an exciting thought while it lasted.

Eat your heart out Cubs fans. We beat you to a World Series and we just might beat you to Jake Peavy as well.

Update: Not so much. More breaking news tonight that Peavy has rejected the trade to the White Sox. Oh well. It was a fun thought while it lasted.

Despite the fact that the rumor mill has long since assumed that if Jake Peavy ended up in Chicago it would be on the North Side, numerous reports this morning are saying that the Padres and White Sox are in serious discussions about sending Jake Peavy to the side of town that actually wins World Series titles.

According to Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Times-Union, Peavy met with Padres officials yesterday to discuss a possible trade to the White Sox. Peavy would have to approve any trade. From the Krasovic report about the potential Peavy-White Sox trade:

“Within the clubhouse, though, Peavy referred to the situation as ‘something to think about’ yet also restated his desire to stay in the National League. One of Peavy’s teammates said he believes Peavy respects the Sox’s aggressiveness in pushing for him but may have reservations about pitching for Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox’s volatile manager.”

Krasovic’s report, which was also picked up by FoxSports who posted about the Peavy to the White Sox rumors this morning, does not cite who the White Sox would potentially be giving up. However, in his post about the Peavy-White Sox rumors, Ace over at Bleacher Nation cites Chicago’s Inside Pitch as saying the White Sox would give up Aaron Poreda and other top prospects for Peavy (presumably whose names do not involve “Gordon” or “Beckham”).

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As of right now, I’m not quite sure exactly how much stock to put into this. I heard about it for the first time a few minutes ago during Tim Kirkjian’s spot on Mike & Mike in the Morning, and his first reaction was to say that he did not think Peavy would get traded to the White Sox, but that Peavy would definitely get traded. I had just pulled up to work so I darted out of the car to find the reports myself and see what was going on.

Needless to say, I would probably jump the through the roof with excitement if Jake Peavy came to the South Side, and not just because he’d be here in time to perhaps pitch twice against the Cubs (although that would be hilariously awesome). With Gavin Floyd struggling and Jose Contreras already in the minors, the White Sox could use a power arm like Peavy’s. This could be exactly the shot in the arm the Sox need to build on our current two-game winning streak and vault back into AL Central contention.

And while I love the potential of Aaron Poreda, I also love the idea of trading a talented but unknown Major League quantity for a guy like Jake Peavy, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this decade. It would be a slam dunk.

Now we just have to wait and see if there is some fire to go with all of this smoke.

Update: Mark Gonzales over at the Tribune has a breakdown of what is no doubt a key issue for Jerry Reinsdorf and Ken Williams in any Peavy-to-the-White Sox scenario. As Gonzales explains, any trade would come with significant financial ramifications for the White Sox:

Peavy will earn $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011, $17 million in 2012 and a $22 million option for 2013 with a $4 million buyout. The Sox have no player earning more than $14 million through 2011. John Danks and Carlos Quentin can become arbitration eligible in 2010.

Gonzales says that Reinsdorf is concerned about a potential drop in revenues due to sponsorship contracts running out after this season, during which the White Sox current payroll is $97 million. The article also notes that the White Sox could reduce their payroll by $40 million if Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Jose Contreras, and Octavio Dotel are not re-signed.

For the season, Jake Peavy is only 3-5 but we won’t hold that against him. Three of his losses this season came in games in which he had a quality start, and he had a no-decision in a game against the Dodgers in which he pitched 8 shutout innings and gave up only two hits. The Padres just suck. Peavy has a 3.82 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP while striking out 69 and walking 19 in 61.1 innings. For his career, Peavy is 89-67 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. His best season was 2007 during which he went 19-6, and set career highs in innings pitched (223.1), BAA (.208), and Ks (240). He also had a 2.54 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP that season.

So, basically, Jake Peavy is a badass and he and current White Sox ace Mark Buehrle would form a great righty-lefty 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. If John Danks regains his consistency and Gavin Floyd regains his competence, the White Sox would have one of the three of four best pitching rotations in baseball.

And if this happens, I promise to stop mumbling insults at Ken Williams under my breath every time the camera pans to center field or the top of our batting order is at the plate.

Getting Jake Peavy would be an absolute home run, as he is the type of pitcher who could mask a lot of the White Sox other deficiencies every fifth day.

Plus, as the picture to the left proves, Jake Peavy loves Jager (photo courtesy of DrunkAthlete.com), which means he will immediately become KVB’s new personal hero. And now that KVB can’t indulge in his man crush on Jose Contreras every fifth day, he needs someone new to revitalize his White Sox obsession. Come on Kenny Willams…make it happen for KVB.

Update: I may be late to my presentation because I stopped to post this real quick before leaving, but no matter. Just caught on The Big Lead that the White Sox and Padres have apparently reached a deal that would send Jake Peavy to the South Side. All that is left now is to wait for Peavy’s approval. And my lat thought before leaving the office is that Gordon Beckham better not be involved. Check out the link above. Post comments. Discuss. Get excited.