Wednesday night featured a pair of great rivalry games, as Syracuse outlasted Georgetown in overtime and Austin Rivers capped off an impressive Duke comeback with a buzzer-beating three-pointer to win at the Dean Dome.  Throw in Murray State falling from the ranks of the unbeaten on Thursday night, and it’s been a solid week of basketball.

That action provides a nice springboard into a Saturday schedule that is shaping up to be even better.  Baylor-Missouri, Michigan State-Ohio State, Virginia-North Carolina, San Diego State-UNLV, and Wichita State-Creighton are just a handful of the intriguing matchups scheduled for the weekend.

But before you settle in for a weekend on the couch, here’s a look at this week’s risers and fallers in the world of college basketball.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Arizona

The Wildcats followed up road wins over Cal and Stanford by taking care of Colorado at home on Thursday night.  With Washington getting crushed at Oregon, the door is open for Arizona to be the Pac-12′s second tournament team.

While a talented group of freshmen were talked about prior to the season, veterans Kyle Fogg, Solomon Hill, and Jesse Perry have led Arizona’s recent resurgence.  Fogg poured in 23 at Cal, while Hill posted 20 points and 17 boards against Colorado this week.

The remaining schedule isn’t too daunting for the Wildcats, and if they can manage to win at Washington next weekend, they have a shot to finish 14-4 in the league.

Louisville

Monday’s 21-point win over UConn was Louisville’s fifth straight, as the Cardinals have quietly climbed the Big East standings in recent weeks.  Sophomore big man Gorgui Dieng has played well during that winning streak with 59 points, 51 boards, and 19 blocks over the last five games.

They also got news this week that highly regarded freshman Wayne Blackshear was cleared to play after missing the first few months of the season with a shoulder injury.  If healthy, he gives them another perimeter scorer and would allow Rick Pitino to expand his rotation a bit.

The Cardinals will use all the help they can get with three of their next four on the road, starting with Saturday at West Virginia followed by a home date with Syracuse on Big Monday.

Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes followed up Sunday’s critical overtime win at Duke with a win over Virginia Tech, which extended their winning streak to five.  The Duke win moved them into the RPI Top 40, and the committee will have to take into account the fact that four of the team’s seven losses came without Reggie Johnson and DeQuan Jones.

Jones is a nice complementary piece, but Johnson is a game-changer.  He  scored 27 points and grabbed 12 boards against Duke and had 15 points, seven rebounds, and four assists versus the Hokies.  The guard play has been solid as expected, while Florida transfer Kenny Kadji has been a revelation at power forward.

The next two games give Miami chances at additional signature wins, as they travel to Florida State on Saturday before hosting North Carolina next week.

Notre Dame

I wrote about the Irish a couple weeks ago, but they certainly have earned additional accolades.  They have now won five straight, including three road wins and three victories over ranked teams.

Notre Dame struggled from long range for most of the game against West Virginia, but they buried three straight threes late to pick up a win in Morgantown.  Jack Cooley had 21 points and 12 boards against the Mountaineers, and he now has five double-doubles in Big East play.  Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant have continued their solid play in the backcourt, and the defense has been terrific with four of the last five foes scoring 0.95 points per possession or less.

The Irish host DePaul and Rutgers in their next two games, and a 14-4 conference record is not out of the question.

Temple

While most of the teams in the Atlantic 10 are beating up on each other, the Owls have reeled off seven straight wins and are currently atop the standings.

The return of big man Micheal Eric has helped them defensively as well as on the glass, and the duo of Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt are averaging a combined 34.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 3.2 steals.  Both guys can shoot it well from beyond the arc, but both have also attempted over 100 free throws so far this year.

Temple’s next six games are against Top 100 teams, starting with Saturday night’s home game versus Xavier.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Arkansas

Wins over Mississippi State, Michigan, and Vanderbilt are terrific, but Arkansas won’t make the tournament if they can’t find a way to win on the road.  They have missed golden opportunities in their last two games, losing by six at LSU and getting steamrolled by 22 against a subpar Georgia team.

The fact that the Hogs are even in the NCAA discussion is impressive since Marshawn Powell played just two games before injury cut short his season, and young players like B.J. Young have a bright future.  That said, the opportunity to go dancing is there, but Arkansas needs to play well down the stretch.

Their best chance at a road win is at Auburn, and they also have home games against Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi.

Baylor

The Bears land here not just because they lost to Kansas at home, but moreso they way they lost.  After jumping out to an early lead, poor defense allowed the Jayhawks to rip off a 43-12 run.  They also made Jeff Withey look like an All-American with 25 points, and once again they played like a team that is mentally fragile and lacks toughness.

Scott Drew has done very little to make people more comfortable with his ability to make adjustments, and it’s tough to envision a scenario where Baylor goes into Missouri and wins on Saturday.  From a pure talent standpoint, very few teams can stack up with the Bears, but right now they serve only as further proof that talent alone isn’t enough.

Creighton

After reeling off 11 straight wins, the Bluejays have now dropped two straight to fall into second place in the Missouri Valley.  Admittedly, both losses came on the road, one on a three at the buzzer against Northern Iowa and the other by eight points at Evansville.

The Creighton defense allowed 1.08 points per possession in each game, and while that isn’t exactly impressive, this team will never be mistaken for an elite defensive squad.  However, their offensive production has also dipped in those games with 1.03 ppp against UNI and 0.95 versus Evansville.  Those are the lowest numbers they have posted since late December, and the 0.95 is a season low.

Saturday’s game against Wichita State was already important, but the Bluejays can ill afford to fall two games back of the Shockers in the MVC race.  A tournament berth isn’t in question, but these losses have definitely hurt their seed and their potential to play close to home in the first round.

Illinois

Since beating Ohio State, the Illini have lost five of six with the lone win coming in an ugly 42-41 game against Michigan State.  For much of the season, offense was a concern for Bruce Weber’s team, as they had scored over 1.00 ppp in just one of their first nine league games.

However, that has turned around in the past two games, but that improvement has been accompanied by their two worst defensive performances of the year.  Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard have both played well of late, but this team lacks reliable depth and doesn’t have a lot of confidence right now.

The fact that Illinois has four Top 50 wins definitely helps their tournament case, but the upcoming schedule doesn’t do them any favors.  The Illini have road games left against Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin as well as a home date with the Wolverines.

West Virginia

The Mountaineers have now lost four of their last five games, and their last two wins have come in overtime against Cincinnati and Providence, both of whom were in position to win those games late.

The defense has really struggled recently, as their last five opponents have all scored at least 1.07 ppp.  To put that in perspective, that happened just four times in their first 20 contests.  On the positive side, Kevin Jones has continued his outstanding play and is now averaging 20.6 points and 11.2 rebounds.

West Virginia’s next four games are brutal, starting with Saturday’s home game with Louisville.  They follow that up with road trips to Pitt and Notre Dame before returning home to face Marquette.

As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Illinois Gameday Info

• Date: Thursday, February 9th
• Time: 8:00 ET, 7:00 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Jimmy Jackson
• Point Spread: Indiana by 4.5
• Over-Under: 134
• KenPom Prediction: Indiana 74-63 with a 83% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Illinois
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Illinois Preview

Illinois

The Illini come in losers of four of their last five games after falling to Northwestern at home on Sunday.  Brandon Paul poured in 22 points, while Meyers Leonard added 21, but once again the Illini got no scoring from their bench.  In fact, four players logged 39 or more minutes against the Wildcats, and only six guys played more than one minute.

Illinois’ lone win during that five-game stretch was a 42-41 victory over Michigan State in one of the ugliest games I have watched all season.  As that point total would indicate, the Illini have struggled offensively most of the season.  They have been held under 1.00 points per possession in seven of their last nine contests.

In conference play, the Illini rank 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency.  Their best attribute is their 51.3 percent shooting from two-point range, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well from beyond the arc.  They rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate, and they are next to last in turnover rate.  That’s good news for an IU team coming off of its best defensive performance in weeks.

That said, the Hoosiers can’t allow Brandon Paul to get clean looks.  Despite the fact that his efficiency numbers aren’t particularly impressive, he did explode for 43 points against Ohio State and has three 20-point efforts since then.  Paul has taken at least 11 shots in 11 straight games, so it will be important for the Hoosiers to make him work for his points.

The other main offensive threat on the Illinois roster is sophomore big man Meyers Leonard.  In many ways, he and Cody Zeller are similar in the sense that each team recognizes their talent but often struggles to get them the basketball.  Against Northwestern he finished 10-of-12 from the field, so the Hoosiers need to limit his touches inside and push him off the block.  They also need to keep him off the offensive glass, which is an area that plagued them early on in conference play.  On the defensive end, Leonard is a tremendous shot-blocker, and I am really looking forward to the matchup with Zeller.

Guard D.J. Richardson also averages in double figures, but he has scored more than nine points just twice in the last eight games.  He’s really struggled with his shot since sustaining a wrist injury early in Big Ten play.  Joseph Bertrand started to emerge near the end of the non-conference slate and has shown flashes as well.  Again, their is limited depth on the Illini roster, so these four players are likely to score most (if not all) of Illinois’ points.

The Illini defense ranks fourth in defensive efficiency in Big Ten play.  Thanks in part to Leonard’s shot-blocking prowess, opponents are shooting just 46.9 percent on two-pointers.  They also do a nice job of forcing turnovers, but they rank in the middle of the pack in defensive rebounding percentage, opponents’ free throw rate, and three-point defense.  Opponents are also shooting a league worst 66.7 percent from the line, so some luck has also played a factor in their solid defensive numbers.  Three of their last four opponents have scored at least 1.02 points per possession, with the 1.25 ppp allowed against Northwestern establishing a new season high.

Indiana

The Hoosiers should come into the game with plenty of confidence after a 17-point win at Purdue on Saturday.  Victor Oladipo played the best game of his career and scored 23 points to go with eight rebounds, four assists, and two blocks.  He was relentlessly aggressive, which paid huge dividends on both ends of the floor.  Indiana also got a lift from Remy Abell, who came off the bench to score 13 points in just 19 minutes.  Cody Zeller attempted 11 of IU’s 35 free throws in the game and finished with 16 points and eight boards.

Against the Boilers, the team showed more toughness than they have in recent weeks and put together a complete performance.  They will need to carry that over to Thursday night’s game and jump on the Illini early.  If the Hoosiers can get Illinois in foul trouble, get out to an early lead, or both, Illinois’ offensive struggles and lack of depth will be magnified.

The Hoosiers are likely to play without Verdell Jones once again, but Oladipo did a nice job of handling the ball more and allowing Jordan Hulls to spend time playing off the ball.  Limiting turnovers will be important for IU, because they don’t want to give a team that struggles offensively any easy baskets off of miscues.  Otherwise, the Hoosiers match up pretty well with Illinois, particularly if they stay aggressive by attacking the offensive glass and getting the ball inside.

Indiana has gotten great play from the bench in recent games, and their depth is a real advantage in this one.  It’s unclear whether Crean will stick with Derek Elston in the starting lineup given Illinois’ relative lack of size, but no matter what, he will have multiple contributors available off the bench like Will Sheehey and the aforementioned Abell.

Final Thought

The Hoosiers finally got a key road win in Big Ten play against Purdue, and it will be important for them to remember how they earned that victory.  If they come out with the same intensity and toughness from the opening tip, this is a game IU should win at home.

On the defensive end, they need to limit Leonard’s touches inside and force Paul into contested jumpers.  Offensively, the Hoosiers have to continue to attack off the dribble or through Zeller in the post, both of which give them a chance to get Leonard in foul trouble or kick the ball out to open shooters.  Look for IU’s depth and what should be a raucous home crowd to be the difference in this one.

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Listen to Andy Thursday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

So after another unpredictable week of college hoops, here are five teams on the rise and five teams on the decline.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Alabama

After dropping three of four, the Tide have now won five straight.  The wins are nice, but the most encouraging sign for Alabama is that their offense has been significantly more efficient over that stretch, scoring at least 1.10 points per possession in each of the last five games.  To put that in context, they hit that mark just three times in their first 12 games.

Guard Travis Releford has been terrific during that stretch, averaging 17.2 points.  Backcourt mate Trevor Lacey has played well during their winning streak as well, and the team got a rather unexpected boost by getting Andrew Steele back after fears that concussions may have ended his career.  He’s not going to score a ton of points but gives them another experienced and capable player in the backcourt to go with the dynamic duo of JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell up front.

We’ll find out a lot more about this team over their next three games when the travel to Mississippi State, take on Vanderbilt at home, and head to Kentucky.

Baylor

As I wrote earlier this week at Run The Floor, it’s time to start talking about the Bears as one of the elite teams this season, and the tempo-free numbers back that up.  On Tuesday, they picked up arguably the best road win of the college basketball season when they pulled out a victory against Kansas State in the Octagon of Doom.  For all of their offensive talent, Baylor has been terrific on defense as well, allowing just three teams to score over 0.94 points per possession.

Pierre Jackson, who dished out 11 assists against the Wildcats, has been a difference maker at the point, and his ability to make shots and spectacular plays helps to offset his high turnover rate.  Brady Heslip gives the team an elite long-range shooter, and Perry Jones III is a sure-fire lottery pick.  But to me, Quincy Acy is the team’s most important player.  He is a phenomenal rebounder and shot-blocker, and he’s molded himself into one of the most efficient players in the country.  And he can still throw down some filthy dunks.

Baylor faces Oklahoma this weekend then takes on fellow Big 12 contenders Kansas and Missouri next week, both of which should be great matchups.

Illinois

It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Illini have a 4-1 record in the Big Ten after beating Minnesota in double OT, Northwestern by one, and Nebraska by five before Tuesday’s upset of Ohio State.

In that game, Brandon Paul went off for 43 points and hit a ridiculous three-pointer and subsequently swatted Jared Sullinger to put the dagger in the Buckeyes.  Given Paul’s efficiency numbers coming into that game, it’s unfair to significantly heighten expectations for him.

The team has been getting solid play from Joseph Bertrand to help pick up the scoring slack for starting guard Sam Maniscalco, who has missed the last three games due to injury.  With sophomore big man Meyers Leonard continuing to impress, Illinois needs to focus on getting him more touches inside.  Quality depth is still an issue due to their youth, but the Ohio State win gives them a much-needed shot of confidence they can build on.

Saint Mary’s

In what has become one of the more intense rivalries going, the Gaels pounded Gonzaga late Thursday night, winning by 21 points despite getting just two points from Rob Jones who led Saint Mary’s in scoring coming into the game.  Matthew Dellavedova was fantastic, scoring 26 points and dishing out six assists compared to just one turnover.

The Gaels have now won six straight and 14 of their last 15 with the lone loss during that stretch coming against Baylor.  Parts of that scheduled haven’t been particularly challenging, but they are now 5-0 in the WCC with wins over BYU and Gonzaga, who were expected to be the other squads at the top of the league.

Randy Bennett has nine players averaging at least 11 minutes, and while Jones and Dellavedova carry a lot of the scoring burden, there are a number of other able contributors on the roster.  Overall, the team ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and for a team that takes over 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, they actually rank second in two-point shooting.  Defense is a potential concern, but teams with elite point guards are dangerous in March, and Dellavedova is one of the nation’s best.

Vanderbilt

After losing to Indiana State to fall to 6-4, the Commodores were universally considered the biggest flop in college basketball.  They have since won six straight games and have quietly re-established themselves as a contender to be the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.

Their most impressive performance during that stretch was a dominant road win at Marquette where Vandy jumped out early and never looked back.  The offense has been fantastic, scoring at least 1.06 points per possession in all six games and scoring at least 1.12 ppp in five of them.  The defense has also improved, and the Commodores still haven’t gotten a ton out of big man Festus Ezeli who is still working through knee issues.  Sharpshooter John Jenkins has been on fire lately, averaging 19.5 points and hitting 28-of-52 (53.8 percent) of his three-pointers during the six-game winning streak.

After facing Georgia at home over the weekend, Vandy goes to Alabama next Thursday in a game that will pit their prolific offense against the Tide’s stifling defense.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Louisville

It’s hard to kill the Cardinals for losing to Georgetown and Kentucky, and even a double overtime loss to Notre Dame can be chalked up to an off night.  But losing by 31 points and essentially giving up against Providence is simply not something a Top 20 team does.

Most everyone would agree that Louisville was overrated when they were in the Top 10, but they have now dropped four of their last five heading into Saturday’s game against DePaul, who they will apparently face without Kyle Kuric, who has an ankle injury.

Outside of the Providence game, the Cardinals have been consistent on defense, but offensive efficiency is another matter.  The team doesn’t shoot well, particularly from three-point range, and they have struggled with turnovers at times.  And while injuries have certainly played a factor, Louisville needs to find answers on the offense end or the Providence game won’t be the last head-scratching loss.

LSU

After their surprising win over Marquette, the Tigers moved their way into the at-large discussion and had people thinking that maybe they had been overlooked.  Since that game, they have lost to Virginia and Alabama while not beating anyone of note.  Those losses aren’t even in the neighborhood of LSU’s earlier losses to Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, but at some point the Tigers have to prove the win over Marquette wasn’t a fluke if they are truly to be taken seriously, particularly with those bad losses already on their profile.

Over their next nine games, LSU faces Mississippi State twice, goes on the road to Florida and Vandy, plays Kentucky and Alabama at home, and heads to Arkansas this weekend, where the Hogs hung 98 on Mississippi State last Saturday night.

The Tigers have been relatively impressive on defense, but I’m not convince they can do enough on offense to win even two of those seven games.  And if I’m right, you can scratch them off the list of potential tournament teams.

North Carolina State

Heading into Wednesday night’s game with Georgia Tech, NC State’s chances at a potential NCAA bid were tenuous.  After losing to the Jackets by 11 at home, I can’t see anyone projecting them to be in the field.

With the ACC down this year, there just isn’t much margin for error for the teams in the middle of the pack.  To be fair, I don’t think anyone expected NC State to even be in the mix for a bid in Mark Gottfried’s first season at the helm, but the opportunity is definitely there.  However, their lone quality win came against a Texas team that is also on the bubble, and their defense has been poor at best against the better teams on their schedule.

There is definitely talent on the roster with guys like C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell among five players scoring at least 12 points per game, but there simply isn’t much depth on the roster.  They can’t afford to lose either of their next two games against Wake Forest and Boston College, which lead into road games against Miami and UNC before a home date with Virginia.  Their schedule down the stretch is also tough, but that won’t matter as much if they can’t add a couple quality wins over the next couple weeks.

Saint Louis

At 12-1, the Billikens were one of the pleasant surprises in college hoops, but they’ve since dropped three of their last four.  All three defeats came at the hands of potential tournament teams, and two of them were on the road.  That said, earlier wins against Washington and Villanova don’t look as impressive as they did at the time, and Saint Louis doesn’t have any wins against teams that would be in the field of 68 if the tournament started today.

Luckily for them, the A-10 is pretty deep this year and provides a number of opportunities to pick up quality wins.  Consequently, the Billikens need to hold serve against the lesser teams in the league and then play well in their two games against Xavier and also at home against Dayton and on the road versus Saint Joseph’s.  In fact, they may need to win three of those four games to make a more compelling case for a bid.

Virginia Tech

Everyone’s favorite bubble team is at it again.  First they dropped a road game against Wake Forest on Saturday to pick up their first bad loss of the season, and then they lost at home to Florida State in a game featuring two bubble teams.  At this point, their best wins are a pair of victories over an Oklahoma State team with virtually no shot of dancing in March.

The Hokies have struggled to get consistent production from their players inside, and their defensive efficiency has dropped off compared to last season.

Following Saturday’s game against Boston College, Va Tech faces a difficult stretch of games featuring home dates with North Carolina, BYU, and Duke along with road trips to Virginia and Maryland, who is playing better of late.  If they can’t pick up some signature wins during that stretch, they won’t have to worry about sweating things out on Selection Sunday.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

I’ll be releasing my own projections starting next week, but for now I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how Big Ten teams are shaping up with as many as nine of them in some of these mock brackets.

For the purposes of this exercise, I have narrowed down the projections to Andy Glockner of SI.com, Shawn Siegel of College Hoops Net, and Dave Ommen of Bracketville.  The latter two names both rank atop the bracket project matrix which has tracked success over the last few years, and Glockner is a great follow on Twitter and does a tremendous job of sharing his thought process as he brackets the teams each Sunday night.

One other thing to keep in mind is that while the committee uses RPI in the selection and seeding process, it can be a bit misleading at this point of the season.  You’ll currently find a number of teams from outside of the six major conferences with high RPI’s, fueled largely by their strength of schedule numbers.  Once they start playing teams in their own leagues, and once major conference teams start challenging themselves in conference play as well, things should start to shift.

In order of average seed, here are the nine Big Ten teams in the discussion:

Ohio State (Glockner/Ommen: 1, Siegel: 2)

Kentucky and Syracuse were unanimous top seeds, while Ohio State and North Carolina showed up on two of the three projections.

Siegel opted for Baylor over the Buckeyes, which is an argument you can certainly make.  The Bears have more wins against the RPI Top 100 and have a number of good wins against teams like Mississippi State, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, and at BYU.  However, the Buckeyes have knocked off Duke and Florida, so their “best” wins are better.

Still, they have two losses, although neither can be considered “bad” since one game at Kansas without Jared Sullinger and the other came in a close game on the road against Indiana, who is 13th in the RPI.

Barring a collapse, it’s hard seeing the Buckeyes getting anything lower than a two seed come March.

Indiana (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

With wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, you could argue that no team has two better wins than the Hoosiers.  If you want to nitpick though, seven of their 13 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 200, so strength of schedule is one factor keeping them from getting a higher seed.

Their SoS should climb as they move through Big Ten play, and with UConn losing to Seton Hall, the opportunity to move up is certainly there.  Indiana’s lone loss came at Michigan State, so there’s no shame in that.

Michigan State (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

These projections came out prior to Sparty’s road win over Wisconsin, so Tom Izzo’s squad has a good chance to improve their seed when the next set of projections come out.  Both of their losses came against teams in the RPI Top 15, one of which was on a aircraft carrier so who knows how much stock you can put in that.

MSU has now won 14 straight games and is playing as well as anyone in the nation’s top conference.  The only knock on them is that just two of their wins (Indiana, at Gonzaga) are against the RPI Top 50.  If they keep playing the way they are, a two-seed is definitely realistic.

Wisconsin (Glockner/Siegel: 5, Ommen: 6)

The Badgers are an interesting case.  They rank 60th in the RPI and are just 1-3 against the Top 50 and 5-4 against the Top 150.  Outside of an 11-point home win over UNLV, there really isn’t much else on their profile in terms of a marquee win.  Their next two games are on the road against Michigan and Purdue, so a split there would help stop their seeding freefall.

Michigan (Siegel: 4, Glockner/Ommen: 6)

The Wolverines are one of the teams I can’t quite figure out yet.  Their two best wins are against Memphis in Maui and at home against Minnesota, and at this point neither of those teams is safely in the field.  They currently sit at 31st in the RPI with seven of their 12 victories against teams outside of the Top 150.

Thursday’s game at Indiana is a chance to prove themselves, as is Sunday’s home date with Wisconsin.  At this point, I lean more toward Glockner and Ommen’s seed for Michigan.

Purdue (Siegel/Ommen: 7, Glockner: 10)

Purdue’s road win at Iowa looked better after the Hawkeyes knocked off Wisconsin, and I think their win over Miami (FL) will look better by the end of the year.  For now, the loss to Butler hurts, but that may change as well.

The Boilers also have wins over Iona, Temple, and Illinois, all of which are in the Top 32 of the RPI.  That said, they are 4-3 against the Top 100 with six of their 12 wins over sub-150 teams.  For seeding purposes, their losses to Alabama and Xavier may become important, because right now those teams are right around the same seed range.

Illinois (Siegel/Ommen: 8, Glockner: 9)

Since winning their first 10 games, the Illini have dropped three of five with their two wins over that span coming by four over Cornell and in double overtime against Minnesota.  A home win against Gonzaga is nice, but otherwise there isn’t much meat on their resume.  They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, but they also don’t really have a bad loss.  T

he schedule doesn’t do them any favors with just one game against Iowa and Penn State in Big Ten play.  A few more losses could send Illinois careening toward the bubble.

Minnesota (Glockner: 11, Siegel/Ommen: 12)

The Gophers have performed better than most people expected following the loss of Trevor Mbakwe, but they are off to a 0-2 start in Big Ten play.  They are just 1-3 against the RPI Top 50, but they are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100 (Bucknell, Fairfield, Indiana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State).

I’m not sure how realistic it is for many of those teams to remain in that range, which means the Gophers need to start picking up some quality wins to remain in the field.

Northwestern (Siegel/Ommen: 13, Glockner: First Four Out)

The good news is that the wins against LSU and Seton Hall look better now than they did earlier this year.  The bad news is they have been crushed by a combined 61 points in games against Baylor and Ohio State.  Eight of their 11 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 150, which leaves them just 3-3 against everybody else.

Their next six games are critical with home games against Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue and road trips to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Some teams are entering league play brimming with confidence based on their recent performances while others are trying to prevent things from snowballing in the wake of a few losses.  Here’s my weekly look at college basketball’s risers and fallers.

The Bottoms Line: Stock Up

California

In the spirit of the holiday season, I thought I’d actually say something positive about the Pac-12.  The Bears just beat a solid UC Santa Barbara team by 20 points without starters Jorge Gutierrez and Richard Solomon.  Gutierrez was ill and should return for a road test against UNLV on Friday, but Solomon is expected to miss at least a month due to a foot injury.

The Bears don’t have a ton of depth, particularly inside, but David Kravish has been able to help on the glass.  Allen Crabbe is one of the more underrated players in college basketball and may well make a run at Pac-12 Player of the Year.  Along with Gutierrez and Justin Cobbs, who scored 25 against UCSB, Crabbe gives Cal a solid backcourt to go with Harper Kamp up front.  Someone has to win this conference, and the Bears are looking like the favorite right now.

Image Credit: SBNation

Kansas State

The Wildcats won their first game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii to move to 8-1 on the season, with their lone loss coming in double overtime to West Virginia.  Frank Martin’s squad has a solid road win at Virginia Tech and beat Alabama by 13 last Saturday.  K-State should definitely make the finals in Hawaii where they will face either Auburn or Long Beach State.

It’s been a team effort to replace the scoring of Jacob Pullen, but the Wildcats have four players averaging at least 11 points and eight guys scoring at least five points per contest.  Jamar Samuels leads the team at 12.4 points per game and has done a great job getting to the line in their most recent victories, while freshman Thomas Gipson has been a pleasant surprise, particularly on the glass.

As we have come to expect from Martin’s teams, the Wildcats are tough to score on and have allowed just one opponent to score over 0.90 points per possession.  They are also among the Top 25 in defensive effective field goal percentage.  I wouldn’t put them in the same class as Baylor and Missouri in the Big 12, but I do think they can be in the mix to finish third.

Miami (FL)

After winning at Charlotte on Thursday, the Canes are now just 7-4, but they added a couple key players over the past week.  First, big man Reggie Johnson returned from an offseason knee injury.  For someone who had battled weight issues in his career, conditioning was a question mark, but Johnson logged 36 minutes in his first game back.  He has 26 points and 16 boards over his first two games, and along with Kenny Kadji, who has apparently become a 6-foot-10 sharpshooter, Miami has a serviceable front line.

The backcourt is already strong with Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, but getting DeQuan Jones back on the wing gives them for firepower on offense.  Jones was implicated in the Nevin Shapiro saga but recently (and rather unexpectedly) had his suspension lifted.  He returned to post seven points and six boards in his first game back.  The Canes won’t challenge UNC or Duke for ACC supremacy, but a third place finish is not out of the question.

Ohio

The Bobcats beat a tough Northern Iowa team by 17 points on the road this week and now sit at 10-1.  Their only loss was by five points at Louisville, and they have also won at Marshall, who is looking like the favorite in Conference USA.

Four players are averaging at least 10 points and four rebounds for OU, led by D.J. Cooper, who is also dishing out 6.4 assists per game.  The team could stand to get to the line more and foul less, but they are forcing a lot of turnovers and doing a nice job of defending the three-point line.  After Kent State lost to Texas-Arlington and Utah State this week, the Bobcats now appear to be the MAC favorite.

The Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Florida State

First, the Noles lost Terrance Shannon for the season due to a shoulder injury that requires surgery.  Then, they lost convincingly to Florida on the road.  While there’s no shame in losing to the Gators, Florida State is now assured of finishing their non-conference schedule without a win over a team ranked in Pomeroy’s Top 100.  Given the lack of depth in the ACC behind Duke and North Carolina, the lack of marquee non-conference wins may come back to bite them.

The Noles continue to do a terrific job on the defensive end of the floor and are allowing just 0.85 points per possession.  Unfortunately, they are inept on offense.  Their turnover rate is among the worst in the nation, and they don’t really have any reliable outside shooters.  After missing the first semester to get his academics in order, guard Ian Miller returned against the Gators, but I’m not sure he solves either of those issues.

Illinois

The Illini dropped their first game of the season last Saturday, losing by 16 to UNLV on a “neutral” floor in Chicago.  They followed that up with a lackluster performance against Cornell before losing to Missouri.  I was most impressed with them against the undefeated Tigers, because on a couple occasions the game seemed to be getting away from them but they battled back and eventually took a one-point lead with about two minutes left.

The other big takeaway from that game was a breakout performance from Joseph Bertrand, who scored 19 points off the bench against Mizzou.  That is absolutely critical given the complete lack of bench contributions the Illini had received over the last few games.  Still, they have just one win against Pomeroy’s Top 90 and don’t have particularly reassuring efficiency numbers on offense.

Texas A&M

Even before they lost to Rice, I had the Aggies in this category, but that definitely solidified it.  A&M is now 8-3, but just one of those wins came against a team in Pomeroy’s Top 200.

The team is really struggling offensively.  They are shooting just over 30 percent from three-point range, have a high turnover rate, and rarely get to the line (where they don’t shoot well anyway).  Khris Middleton has only been back for four games, but he doesn’t cure all of this team’s ailments.  We’ll find out a lot about this team when they open Big 12 play at Baylor on January 2nd.

Xavier

While you can certainly blame Xavier’s losses to Oral Roberts and Long Beach State on the fact that they were forced to play short-handed due to the suspensions from the Crosstown Brawl, those wounds were self-inflicted, so my sympathy is minimal at best.  It’s tough to know how the selection committee will view these defeats in March, but the loss to the 49ers will keep them from playing Kansas State in the Diamond Head Classic, which would have given them a chance for another solid non-conference win.

In the end, this is still a really good basketball team that can make a run at the Final Four.  However, while these recent losses have their stock down on the court, their actions during and after the Cincinnati game have done some damage to the program’s reputation off of it as well.

**********

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

No matter how hard it is to watch your favorite basketball team be royally screwed over (I won’t even mention his name) and become the laughingstock of many college baskeball fans, I still watch every IU game I can. It’s not easy, but nights like last night make it worth it.

Tom Crean and Indiana AD Fred Glass (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

What was once a college basketball program that won consistently has been forced to take some serious steps backwards.

When Tom Crean was hired in 2008, no other college basketball coach had as hard as a job as he did. Many of the new players on the team were walkonsm and because of that IU had a 6-25 overall record and a 1-17 record in the Big Ten that first year. This was after a season when IU made the NCAA tournament.

This restructuring was going to take some time, and probably longer than some people expected.

The 2009-10 season brought improvement. IU went 10-21 overall and did manage four wins in the conference. It’s nothing to write home about, but to IU fans it was a sign that this program was heading in the right direction.

If there was anything we as an IU fan base had to believe in it was Tom Crean. We had to stay patient. We couldn’t let a few terrible years get us too angry with the head coach.

In some ways, I sympathized with him. To take the job he has takes balls. He’s risking his college coaching career if things don’t pan out too well in Indiana. And so I respect the man and want him to be successful, not only because I am a fan, but because I respect the dedication and the fact that he’s taking a risk with a basketball program you can tell he really loves.

Thursday night’s win was for all that dedication and the “never give up” attitude Crean has instilled in his players.

Nobody has doubted his or the players’ dedication. You can see it in their faces when they play. The Hoosiers have played well in other games but still come up short. That’s what these past years have been like. Dedication, but no reward.

Last night they got their reward: a victory over a ranked team, an event that hasn’t happened since beating Purdue on February 19th, 2008.

So, IU fans, savor this win. Know that it wasn’t a spur-of-the-moment win, but an almost three year in the making win.

It’s things like this that keep that hope alive that Indiana can, once again, regain its place among the top of the Big Ten.

I’ll see you at Assembly Hall.

This post and all of our weekly Ohio State previews are made possible by Steamatic by Carrara Companies, which proudly provides restoration, cleaning, and construction services to all of Central and Northeast Ohio including Columbus, Cleveland, Akron and the surrounding areas.

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—–

THE Ohio State University is 62-30-4 all-time against the Illinois Fighting Illini. The winner of this game receives the wooden turtle Illibuck Trophy. This is on the long list of Big Ten trophy games and the tradition started way back in 1925.

Somehow I don’t see this trophy game being preserved in the new divisional alignment starting next year (see lopsided all-time record above).

Look! Ohio State is on the road for the first of only four trips this year!

Now on to the game data and preview:

Ohio State-Illinois Primer

• Ohio State–Illinois Location: Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois
• Ohio State–Illinois Date and Kickoff Time Time: Saturday October 2nd, 2010 – 12:00pm EST
• Ohio State–Illinois TV: Big Ten Network
• Ohio State–Illinois Announcers: Eric Collins, Chris Martin, and Charissa Thompson
• Ohio State–Illinois Odds: Spread – Ohio State -19, Over/under – 50.5 (via Betus.com)

ILLINOIS Fighting Illini (2-1)

• Ron Zook (46-54 career, 6th year at Illinois 23-40)
• Last Week: 28-22 win over Northern Illinois

The Fighting Zooks have their toughest Big Ten game of the year in week one of conference play. Head Coach Ron Zook is on the hot seat but may be able to save face with a good overall year end record. You see, the two conference teams they don’t have to play this year are Iowa and Wisconsin, two of the three teams expected to challenge for the Big Ten Championship.

Illinois’ offense is all run, no pass again, as it has been during the Zook tenure. Leading the team in rushing is junior 230 lb RB Mikel Leshoure, who hasn’t fumbled in his career and is averaging 6.9 yards a carry on almost 20 carries a game in 2010.

Expect them to try to keep Ohio State’s offense off the field and pound the ball with Leshoure and Freshman QB Nathan Scheelhaase who is averaging 5.9 yards a carry. These two in the backfield will run, run, run, unless they get down early. If they do, things could get ugly if Scheelhaase has to prove his arm throwing to his inexperienced wide receivers.

Or their stubborn running attack could simply just end up being the only difference between giving the Buckeye offense an opportunity to score 50-plus points or only 30-plus points.

#2 OHIO STATE Buckeyes (4-0)

• Jim Tressel (233-78-2 career, 98-21 at Ohio State, 10th year)
• Last Week: 73-20 win over Eastern Michigan

Terrelle Pryor passed (four to Sanzenbacher), ran, and caught touchdowns last week against EMU en route to a 73 point output. His talent was on full display and I bet he felt like he was in high school again. But this is Illinois and the Big Ten he facing up against now. Now is the time when he has to keep his stock rising and avoid a mental lapse on the field if the Bucks are truly primed for a special season. The difference from last year is Pryor looked beatable at this time, but now he and Buckeyes look unbeatable.

The Buckeye defense has the obvious game plan to stop the run first and force Illinois to pass, especially if they have an early lead. They have not given up a 100 yard rusher in 27 straight games and plan on extending that streak despite Illinois’ style of play. Even if Illinois can eat up a lot of yards on the ground, forcing field goals and punt situations is key so their offense can get time on the field to put points on the board.

They are focused, so don’t expect Ohio State to overlook Illinois before their home game against Indiana October 9th.

Ohio State-Illinois PREDICTION

All year I have been against and wrong on the spread picks for the Buckeyes. I NEVER bet for or against my favorite team because it takes the fun out of watching it. But with what I thought were too large spreads all year, I’m buying into the Ohio State -19 spread in this one. That is Easily attainable for this team even if you plan on it being “another tough Big Ten conference game” as the Sweater Vest would say. The weather won’t be perfect but don’t expect a downpour.

Ohio State-Illinois Pick: Ohio State 42 Illinois 16

Ohio State-Illinois Spread Pick: Ohio State -19

KVB is 3-0 straight up and 0-3 against the spread on Ohio State this year.

Note: This post is from 2009. Follow the link to view our 2010 March Madness upset analysis, including 5-12 seed predictions.

To view our other 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• 2010 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket Breakdown
• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets
• Gus Johnson NCAA Tournament Announcing Schedule

——————–

You’re set to make your March Madness betting picks, but your hands start to tremble. You know it’s coming. Coming for you. Coming to break your heart. Yes – that evil 12 seed gets you every year.

Think the 12-seed upset theory is just a March Madness betting myth? Think again. No. 12s beat No. 5s 33% of the time – that’s one in three matchups, meaning online betting fans should expect at least one first-round upset every season.

Which 12 seed – or seeds – will pull it off this year? Let’s break down the four 5-12 March Madness lines.

No. 5 Florida State Seminoles vs No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers Pick

The Seminoles, who pulled off a big upset over North Carolina in the ACC tournament, face Wisconsin in what should be a war between two defensive-minded teams. Can online betting fans trust the Seminoles? Aside from their win over the Tar Heels, they lost to Pittsburgh, Duke (twice), Wake Forest and even North Carolina in their first meeting. Does that mean Florida State is a pretender?

Not necessarily. Guard Toney Douglas can be magic for Florida State on both sides of the court, as he puts up big points but also plays great defense and forces turnovers. Wisconsin is just as good defensively, but it can’t match Florida State’s offense. The Badgers’ leading scorer, Marcus Landry, averages only 12.6 points per game. Look for FSU’s slight offensive advantage to be the difference maker here.

Online betting pick: Florida State

No. 5 Utah Utes vs. No. 12 Arizona Wildcats Pick

In the top-heavy Midwest Regional, which features major contenders Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas and Wake Forest, Utah’s best-case scenario was the fifth seed. The Utes draw Arizona, who many online betting followers felt shouldn’t have made the tournament. Regardless, the Wildcats may be the scariest 12 seed in March Madness betting the season. Not only did they beat UCLA and Gonzaga, they boast a true game-changer in center Jordan Hill, who looks like a surefire NBA first-rounder.

Utah won the Mountain West was but wasn’t tested like other No. 5 seeds were; it also relies too heavily on its outside shooting. Arizona looks like the hottest 12-seed upset pick in March Madness betting this year.

Online betting pick: Arizona

StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

No. 5 Illinois Fighting Illini vs No. 12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick

Can you say upset alert again? Anyone who likes to bet on basketball at the sportsbook should remember Western Kentucky from last year, when it reached the Sweet 16 as – you guessed it – a 12 seed. The Hilltoppers won the Sun Belt tournament, led by junior guard A.J. Slaughter and his hot shooting. Western Kentucky also beat No. 1 overall March Madness betting seed Louisville this season, so it must be taken seriously.

Illinois is outstanding defensively and doesn’t turn over the ball but has serious trouble scoring. Since Western Kentucky is no slouch defensively, Slaughter could push them over the top as four-point underdogs.

Online betting pick: Western Kentucky

No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers vs No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers Pick

This could be the safest of the five-versus-12 March Madness lines. Eight of Purdue’s regular season opponents were nationally ranked on the game day, whereas Northern Iowa faced just one ranked team in that time span. While online betting fans can’t exaggerate the value of facing ranked teams, there’s no denying that Purdue is the more proven squad here.

While the Boilermakers are viewed by many as a bust this season, lacking size and depth, they play solid defense. Guard Lewis Jackson, though he doesn’t score much, is an all-around, X-factor type player. Bet on Purdue to survive the first round.

Online betting pick: Purdue

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• 2010 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket Breakdown
• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

——————–

There is only one thing more fun than watching the NCAA Tournament brackets be announced live on Selection Sunday: filling them in over the next few days to arrive at your own personal Final Four and, ultimately, national champion.

We all know that the NCAA Tournament is essentially a crapshoot. Oh sure, there are historical trends that make sense to follow (#1 seeds will make the Sweet 16, for example) and a wide spectrum of personal college basketball knowledge can help you see a Cinderella before any of the Thursday games tip-off.

But, we all see it every year: we enter into a family pool, all the guys have been watching every basketball game since January and have been poring over the numbers, and then Mom decides to pick “the underdogs and the teams with the prettiest uniforms” and ends up winning the bracket.

If something like this has never happened to you during March Madness you are either lying or Joe Lunardi. And hell, Joe Lunardi is only proven to be good at picking the brackets before they are announced. I’m sure he runs into the same problems as the rest of us when trying to predict the outcome of actual tournament.

Because of the randomness of it all, I usually just eyeball my brackets and go with first impressions. Some years I pick a lot of upsets, some years I don’t. And usually I do three, four, five different brackets in an effort to diversify my picks and give myself, theoretically, a better chance of at least winning one pool.

Well now that I have this blog, and have decided it is a good idea to publish every infinitesimal and meaningless thought I have about sports, I feel like there is more at stake with my picks this year. So I decided that I wanted to do just one bracket, and to have a specific system I used for filling it out. (Plus, I took one look at this year’s bracket and realized that so many of the games seemed like toss-ups, I needed some kind of analysis I trusted to fall back on and break the ties.)

Let me be clear right off the bat: In no way do I endorse the following system as the best NCAA Tournament bracket system possible. Nor am I wholeheartedly convinced that it is even necessarily good; nor, truth be told, did it really require a whole lot of in-depth thought to come up with.

But…after devising the system and using it to go through the entire bracket, the results were as follows:

• Higher seeds, especially the top-line seeds, won most of the games. This is usually what happens, and what I expected, so I was pleased.
• One #12 seed beat a #5 seed. This always happens, so again, I was pleased.
• A darkhorse Sweet 16 team (13th seed or lower) emerged. There is often one very low seed that makes it out of the first weekend; but rarely more than one or two.
• A #2 or #3 seed lost in the first weekend. Out of 8 such teams, there is usually one or two gone before the Sweet 16. This held true in my predictions.
• The Elite 8 and Final Four is dominated by high seeds. Again, while the first few rounds of the tournament make headlines because of upsets, when the dust settles for the final three rounds, the majority of the teams are usually the teams with the best seeds.

So, I did not fudge my system in any way during the selection process, and the results were what I “hoped” to get. By this I mean that my system did not place 4 #10 seeds in the Final Four, or just give me all favorites winning. It actually matched up pretty well with typical tournament trends that we see from year to year.

Before I jump into my actual picks, here is a description of my subjective-objective system, which, if it proves successful this year, may be my new system for picking the NCAA Tournament moving forward.

StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

The JRod Subjective-Objective System for Picking the NCAA Tournament (Which Hopefully is More Successful Than Throwing Darts or my Mom’s Picks)

Why do I call it a “subjective-objective” system? Because I sat down and defined what kinds of quantifiable team stats mean the most to me when deciding what team will beat another. My choice of metrics was obviously very subjective. But once that choice was made, there was very little room for any other subjective decision-making, with one caveat — which I will get to in a bit.

Here are the metrics I used to measure each matchup on a head-to-head basis:

• Regular Season Road Record
• Tournament Seed
• Strength of Schedule
• Team FT%
• Team Turnovers per Game
• Experience of Guards

A few quick notes about the metrics:

1. I understand that these are not perfect. Road record, for instance, does not take into account a team’s record on neutral sites, which is perhaps an even more accurate reflection of how they will do on neutral sites in the NCAA Tournament. There are plenty of other problems and holes in this system. Feel free to point them out in the comments if you wish, but just know that I already know they exist.
2. Turnovers per game does not take into account assist/turnover ratios, number of possessions per game, style of play, etc. Comparing TO/game in a vacuum across teams is obviously not completely “fair” or accurate.
3. To measure the experience of the the guards, I used the information available at the CollegeHoopsNet.com team tournament capsules. For each team’s projected lineup, every guard was assigned a value of 1, 2, 3, or 4, based on their class. Freshman were a 1, Sophomores a 2, Juniors a 3, and Seniors a 4. The sum was then divided by the number of guards to get an average. Obviously the higher the better. Again, this is not perfect, but I like teams with experienced, older guards, so it works for my subjective statistical metrics.
4. For tournament seed, the better seed got the advantage. Why? Because more often than not, the better seed wins — except in the case of 8/9 matchups, where 9 seeds actually win 53% of the time. Hence, to play the averages, the 9 seed got the seed advantage in 8/9 games. But I thought this was important because the selection committee spent hours upon hours comparing these teams, and I generally trust their ability to tier the teams.
5. In the case of a tie (i.e. each team winning three categories) the team with the better seed wins the tie-breaker and moves on. Now, here’s the caveat to complete objectivity: If there is a tie between two teams whose seeds are adjacent (a #2 seed playing a #3 seed or a #1 seed, for instance) then I use my own personal gut feelings/bias to break the tie. This only happened a few times. 95% of the games were “picked” using the objective results of the system.

If anything is unclear, leave me a question in the comments and I’ll try to clear it up. Again, I am not claiming that this system was particularly well thought out or perfect. However, the relative simplicity of the stats did allow me to compile everything into a spreadsheet in about 2.5 hours, it does take into account the traits that I personally value, and the results ended up producing a bracket I would have been happy to end with if I had just run straight through it off the top of my head.

If you are interested, here is the actual bracket breakdown spreadsheet I used so you can see the actual data. You will notice that I did not list the #16 seeds. Sorry guys, but I knew nothing would make me pick a #16 over a #1. Perhaps that will burn me, but I feel fairly confident going with history on that one.

All that said, let’s break down the regions:

Midwest Region Predictions

First Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville
• #9 Siena over #8 Ohio State
• #5 Utah over #12 Arizona
• #4 Wake Forest over #13 Cleveland State
• #6 West Virginia over #11 Dayton
• #14 North Dakota St over #3 Kansas
• #7 Boston College over #10 USC
• #2 Michigan State over #15 Robert Morris

Siena and Ohio State were actually pretty evenly matched up, with Siena having a slight 3-2-1 advantage. Siena has a much better record on the road and more experienced guards, so I feel comfortable about that one. But it’s an 8/9 game so who the hell knows.

The one that will jump off the page is #14 North Dakota State over #3 Kansas. NDSU went 10-4 on the road this year, makes just under 74% of their free throws, has all senior guards, and only turns the ball over 11.3 times. Their Strength of Schedule is obviously not very good, but they played outstanding against their level of competition. Considering Kansas’ poor play very late in the season, and their relative youth, I am not afraid of this upset pick. If I had to bet money, I’d obviously put it on the Jayhawks, but now I won’t be at all shocked if they go down, much to the dismay of Bill Self.

Second Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #9 Siena
• #5 Utah over #4 Wake Forest
• #14 North Dakota State over #6 West Virginia
• #2 Michigan State over #7 Boston College

I like Utah over Wake Forest because of the experience factor, the fact that Utah turns the ball over more than two times per game less, and Utah’s ability to hit free throws at a 78.2% clip. Wake Forest clearly has the more talented team though; so again, this is a game where me being wrong would not be surprising at all.

And once again, you see my tourney darkhorse North Dakota State winning again. Considering the numbers I stated above, does this surprise you? West Virginia shoots less than 70% from the line, has relative inexperience at the guard position (a 2.5 score to NDSU’s 4) and turns the ball over slightly more.

Sweet 16 Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #5 Utah
• #2 Michigan State over #14 North Dakota State

Louisville beats Utah across the board, except for free throw shooting. The Michigan State-North Dakota State game was actually a tie by the categories. Michigan State wins in road record, seed, and strength of schedule, but falls short in FT shooting, guard experience, and TO/game. Non-adjacent favored seeds win out though, so NDSU’s Cinderalla story comes to an end.

Elite 8 Pick – Midwest Region

• #2 Michigan State over #1 Louisville

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

The Spartans win 3-2-1, with the teams tying in guard experience and Louisville besting Michigan State in seeding and TO/game. Michigan State’s other advantages were by slim margins, which is to be expected. I think this would be a great regional final that could go either way (a refrain you will probably hear repeated as we move forward), but as a Big Ten fan I would love to see Tom Izzo and the boys make it to Detroit.

West Region Predictions

First Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn
• #9 Texas A&M over #8 BYU
• #5 Purdue over #12 Northern Iowa
• #4 Washington over #13 Mississippi State
• #6 Marquette over #11 Utah State
• #3 Missouri over #14 Cornell
• #7 California over #10 Maryland
• #2 Memphis over #15 Cal State Northridge

No real surprises. BYU-Texas A&M was a 3-3 tie based on the metrics, but I chose Texas A&M because they have slightly more experienced guard play and played a slightly tougher schedule. Again, total toss-up, could go either way — but you have to pick one!

Second Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #9 Texas A&M
• #4 Washington over #5 Purdue
• #6 Marquette over #3 Missouri
• #7 California over #2 Memphis

The top part of the bracket goes according to seed. I actually thought Purdue would go a little farther when I first embarked on this analysis, but Washington just edges them out. The surprises come in the bottom half of the bracket.

Marquette defies seeding to beat Missouri, but I don’t really consider this an upset. Even without Dominic James, Marquette has vast experience in its backcourt, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they make 72% of their free throws.

Memphis losing this early surprised me a little, but I do not think they are nearly as good as they were last year. Cal actually bests Memphis in FT%, SOS, guard experience, and TO/game. I think Memphis’ inexperience and lower level of competition since January hurts them and they make an early exit. I have no qualms going with the stats and picking Cal here. (Side note: Is John Calipari screaming, crying, or yawning in that picture?)

Sweet 16 Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #4 Washington
• #6 Marquette over #7 California

UConn is very strong across the board with respect to the stats I chose, and they pretty much dominate Washington. Marquette-Cal is a relatively even matchup, but the experience and slightly better TO/game numbers give Marquette the edge.

Elite 8 Pick – West Region

• #1 UConn over #6 Marquette

An all Big East regional final in the West would be great. The problem for Marquette is that UConn is just a little bit better at a couple more categories. UConn went 10-1 on the road this year and has an all-senior backcourt that includes the great AJ Price (who I have been a big fan of ever since he dismantled Indiana last season). Plus, while this is not really taken into account statistically, having a 7’3 big man down low in Hasheem Thabeet obviously gives UConn a dimension that most teams do not have. I am comfortable sending the Huskies to the Final Four.

East Region Predictions

First Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh
• #8 Oklahoma State over #9 Tennessee
• #12 Wisconsin over #5 Florida State
• #4 Xavier over #13 Portland State
• #6 UCLA over #11 Virginia Commonwealth
• #3 Villanova over #14 American U.
• #7 Texas over #10 Minnesota
• #2 Duke over #15 Binghamton

Oklahoma State-Tennessee was a 3-3 tie. However, one of the categories Tennessee “won” was being a 9 seed over an 8 seed. Considering the fact that OSU has more experienced guards, turns the ball over less, and shoots better from the line, I like them to win. And for goodness sakes, 9 seeds only win 3% more than 8 seeds, so it’s not like the 9 over 8 advantage should determine every one of these matchups.

Wisconsin is my #12 seed that pulls the upset. The Badgers burned me in the Big Ten Tournament (I picked them to win it) and this pick scares me a little bit considering how well Florida State played in the ACC Tournament. However, Wisconsin has more experienced guards (by class anyway) and turns the ball over a staggering 5.6 times less per game. I actually look at this game as a toss-up, but I feel comfortable going with the Badgers in the upset.

Interesting note: VCU over UCLA is a trendy first round upset pick. Led by former tournament star Eric Maynor (remember VCU’s upset of Duke a couple years ago?) a lot of people, including Jay Bilas, think VCU could/will beat UCLA. However, this was the only first round game (minus the 1/16 battles, which I did not analyze) in which one team won all six categories — and it was UCLA doing the winning. I had actually anticipated picking VCU, but based on the analysis, I now feel pretty good picking the Bruins.

Which, of course, means that VCU will still probably win. Oh well. Such is March Madness.

Second Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #8 Oklahoma State
• #12 Wisconsin over #4 Xavier
• #3 Villanova over #6 UCLA
• #2 Duke over #7 Texas

Well, here I go again banking my credibility on Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Their experience, protection of the ball, FT%, and SOS all trump Xavier. This worries me a bit because Wisconsin has been so up and down this year, but they do play the kind of basketball I respect, and have made noise in the tournament before. By no means would I be shocked to see Wisconsin lose here (or in the first round for that matter), but I’m sticking with the Badgers to move onto the Sweet 16 and help restore some cred to the Big Ten.

Sweet 16 Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #12 Wisconsin
• #3 Villanova over #2 Duke

Halelujah, Pittsburgh beats Wisconsin. I was really worried that I might have devised a system that would choose this game in a way I would have a really hard time justifying. But Pitt was better on the road and has more experience in the backcourt. It ended up a 3-3 tie, with Pitt’s tremendous seed advantage tipping the scales.

The Villanova-Duke matchup was 3-3, which should go to the higher seed. However, because it’s a 2-3 matchup, I gave myself the wiggle room to be subjective in my choice. Duke is playing well, but I love ‘Nova’s backcourt and I just don’t see this Duke team as being built for a long tourney run. ‘Nova moves on for another all Big East Regional Final.

Elite 8 Pick – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #3 Villanova

As you can tell, my subjective choices of metrics obviously prove that I am a fan of the Big East’s brand of basketball. Through three regions, I have chosen five Big East schools to make the Elite 8. Villanova is far superior at the line, but Pittsburgh faced a tougher schedule and has more experience guards that turn the ball over less. Jamie Dixon and the Panthers move on to Detroit.

South Region Predictions

First Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina
• #9 Butler over #8 LSU
• #5 Illinois over #12 Western Kentucky
• #4 Gonzaga over #13 Akron
• #6 Arizona State over #11 Temple
• #3 Syracuse over #14 Stephen F. Austin
• #7 Clemson over #10 Michigan
• #2 Oklahoma over #15 Morgan State

A pretty much by-the-seed first round in the South. There are a few games I would not be surprised to see go the other way (WKU over Illinois, Michigan over Clemson, for example) but I have no issues with any of these games. Butler and LSU was close, and LSU actually has more experience and turns the ball over less, but Butler actually played a tougher schedule and was better on the road. I like rooting for the Bulldogs anyway, so I’m glad this turned out how it did.

Second Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #9 Butler
• #4 Gonzaga over #5 Illinois
• #3 Syracuse over #6 Arizona State
• #2 Oklahoma over #7 Clemson

Chalk reigns again as the top four seeds all advance. Illinois versus Gonzaga was very close, but I definitely would have picked Gonzaga in this one without the stats, so I feel good that it turned out this way — especially with Illinois not having Chester Frazier. Syracuse-Arizona State was won by the Orange based on their seed, but I would not be shocked to see ASU win. Syracuse turns the ball over a lot and is not good at all from the FT line. But I do love their backcourt and think Jonny Flynn is one of the ten best players in America and could lead my team anytime.

Sweet 16 Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #4 Gonzaga
• #2 Oklahoma over #3 Syracuse

Chalk again. And neither is really all that close. Surely Ty Lawson would be healthy (or healthy enough) by the Sweet 16, and I think UNC would need him to beat a really good Gonzaga team. Oklahoma beats Syracuse in everything but SOS. And honestly? It’s about time a Big East team did not make the Elite 8. With a healthy Blake Griffin all year, Oklahoma probably gets a #1 seed. This is not a surprise to see them advance so far.

Elite 8 Pick – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #2 Oklahoma

The Tar Heels actually beat Oklahoma in every category. Before looking at the stats I wondered who I would pick just based on the eyeball test. But it’s hard to argue with a system that I devised saying North Carolina is better in every category. The Tar Heels head to the Final Four.

Final Four Predictions

• #1 UConn over #2 Michigan State
• #1 North Carolina over #1 Pittsburgh

UConn bests Michigan State in four categories, and I think the Huskies are the better and more consistent team overall. The Spartans valiant run to Detroit ends here.

North Carolina-Pitt is very close statistically, with Pitt actually holding the edge in guard experience and TO/game. I would not be surprised to see Pitt advance and make it an all Big East championship game, but North Carolina was a better team on the road and is almost a full 10% better at the FT line. This would be a GREAT Final Four game, with the slight edge going to the Tar Heels.

2009 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Game Prediction

• #1 UConn over #1 North Carolina

Based on the metrics, UConn wins this 3-2-1. Each category is very close (save for UNC’s wide edge in FT%) but UConn’s slight advantage in backcourt experience and TO/game gives them the edge. Add in the questions surrounding Ty Lawson’s health and I’ll take this.

If I had just eyeballed the brackets, I’m not sure either one of these teams makes my title game, but it’s pretty obvious that they are proficient in the areas I value.

I’m not a big Jim Calhoun fan, although I think he’s obviously a great coach. But I have to say that banking my entire bracket on a team led by AJ Price, and that has Hasheem Thabeet down low, does not make me overly nervous. UConn was generally considered one of the top two teams in the Big East all year (with Pitt — and then Louisville came on strong at the end) and the Big East was clearly the best conference in America. It is fitting then that a Big East team ends up winning it all.

My official one-and-only bracket for the 2009 Tournament:

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StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

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So there you have it — my official subjective-objective predictions for the 2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. All this really means is that I now have more time and thought invested into getting my bracket horribly and drastically wrong. But I will say this: I have more confidence heading into the first Thursday of March Madness than ever before.

I fully expect that confidence to be completely eroded by Thursday night.

In the second half of today’s rematch in Bloomington, however, the Hoosiers perhaps offered a sign of what is to come in the near future: real competitiveness against a top-20 team.

Despite being down 38-21 at halftime, and continuing to play without suspended leading scorer Devan Dumes, Indiana played hard and played well in the second half. On a couple of occasions the Hoosiers got the Illini lead down to 8 or 9 points, but were never able to take the next step and erase the rest of Illinois’ advantage.

(Follow the link to view the Indiana-lllinois box score)

For the Illini, the game was won inside. Indiana actually held Demetri McCamey to only two points, but Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale combined for 32 points, 16 rebounds, and 6 blocked shots. Davis in particular was impressive with his poise and athleticism, and turned in what IU fans will no doubt agree was the best performance ever at Assembly Hall by someone named Mike Davis.

No offense intended for IU’s former coach of the same name, but it what it is.

While another home loss is hard to take, and Indiana never truly threatened to win this game, the team’s fight and defense in the second half was encouraging. Matt Roth and Malik Story played especially well in the second half, doing everything they could to compensate for the offensive void that Devan Dumes’ absence has left. Story finished with 9 points and was assertive in taking the ball strong to the hole. Roth finished with 13 points and put some juice into IU’s comeback attempt by nailing three second half 3-pointers.

At the end of the day, the same problems plagued Indiana today that have plagued the team all year: overall lack of talent and depth and an inability to make free throws. The Hoosiers shot 24 free throws but made only 11. In a 13-point loss, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out how much different the game could have been if the Hoosiers had made their free ones.

In a season of moral victories, the second half of today’s game was another one. It continues to be imperative for IU fans to maintain realistic expectations of this year’s undermanned team. We all want victories, but this is another building block game that helped us to build the foundation for many more victories in the future.

Or at least we hope.

That said, it always sucks to lose by 13 at home, especially to Illinois. Another reward like we got a few weeks back against Iowa sure would be nice before this season is over. Maybe once Devan Dumes is back we can get one.

The 2010 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament preview post is live.

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We are now firmly in the heart of the conference schedule as the 2008-2009 college basketball season sprints towards the glory of March Madness. Earlier today, we offered up a quick preview of the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament, and now we will get a little more granular and preview the 2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament.

I have to admit that doing this preview is a little bittersweet for me as an IU fan. This season’s Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament will most likely mark the first (and hopefully only) time that Indiana comes in as the #11 seed. As IU fans, we all understand that It is the price we have to pay for the era of the lying-cheating-bastard-who-shall-not-be-named, but it does not make it any easier to handle.

Still, there will be a twinge of excitement come March 12th when the Hoosiers tip off against whoever the #5 seed winds up being in this topsy-turvy season of Big Ten basketball. Maybe Devan Dumes and Matt Roth can get hot from the outside and the Hoosiers can pull off an upset. Not likely, I know. Still, the Hoosiers will have a definite home-court advantage playing in front of their fans in Indianapolis, and after last season’s heartbreaking loss to Minnesota on a wild last-second shot, the Big Ten Tournament owes us one.

Anyway, enough pipe-dreaming from me. Onto the particulars of the 2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament:

• Dates: March 12-15
• Location: Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
• TV: Big Ten Network, ESPN, ESPN2, CBS Sports (see below)
• StubHub Tickets: Buy Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets:2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

And let’s take a quick trip down memory lane and count down the past Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: 1998 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #4 seed Michigan defeated #3 seed Purdue 76-67
• Chicago, IL

1999 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Michigan State defeated #11 seed Illinois 67-50
• Chicago, IL

2000 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Michigan State defeated #4 seed Illinois 76-61
• Chicago, IL

2001 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #6 seed Iowa defeated #4 seed Indiana 63-61
• Chicago, IL

2002 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Ohio State defeated #9 seed Iowa 81-64
• Indianapolis, IN

2003 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Illinois defeated #8 seed Ohio State 72-59
• Chicago, IL

2004 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Wisconsin defeated #1 seed Illinois 70-53
• Indianapolis, IN

2005 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Illinois defeated #3 seed Wisconsin 54-43
• Chicago, IL

2006 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #2 seed Iowa defeated #1 seed Ohio State 67-60
• Indianapolis, IN

2007 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Ohio State defeated #2 seed Wisconsin 66-49
• Chicago, IL

2008 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #1 seed Wisconsin defeated #10 seed Illinois 61-48
• Indianapolis, IN

2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Champion:

• #3 seed Purdue defeated #5 seed Ohio State 65-61
• Indianapolis, IN

Who will this year’s Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament? At this point, it looks like a major toss-up. Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Penn State have looked capable of winning it at different points this season. And if history is any indicator, a dark horse may emerge once the balls get rolled out on March 12. Four times in the brief ten-year history of the Big Ten Tournament, a team seeded #8 or lower has played in the championship game. The lowest seeded team to ever win the Big Ten tournament, however, is #6 seed Iowa in 2001. So the smart money would go on one of the teams listed above.

Either way, I’m sure it will be an exciting weekend — and the only chance for Indiana to crack this year’s field of 64. No, it isn’t likely. But you better believe Hoosier Nation will be out in droves on March 12th hoping their undermanned Hoosiers can pull off an unlikely first round upset.

Legion, a 6-foot-5 transfer from Kentucky who just became eligible, came off the bench to score six points in 18 minutes in Illinois’ 82-51 win over Detroit Mercy at Assembly Hall. Legion was one of the nation’s top 50 recruits coming out of Oak Hill (Va.) Academy when he signed with Kentucky.

“You have to give the kid credit,” Illini coach Bruce Weber said told reporters after the game. “He made his first shot. I think it was the first time he touched the ball. He’s not shy about shooting. He’s got to be better on the defensive end with the team defensive concept. We got better because we watched film. He’s not had a chance to watch film on himself. Now he has a chance to watch and see what he’s doing. Over the next five or six games, I hope he can make progress.”

The Illini are hoping Legion can play a bigger role on Tuesday when they travel to St. Louis to face Missouri in the annual Braggin’ Rights game at Scottrade Center. Illinois has won eight straight over Mizzou in the series.