With the addition of Ayala, our relief options have opened up. We won’t have to see guys like Guerrier, Crain and Breslow every night meaning that we will have much fresher arms in the latter part of the season, something that lost us a chance at the postseason in ’08. Ayala has gotten a pretty bad rap among fan commentary, but given the right situation; he should be a good fit in our relief rotation and should compete for the setup job.

A Joe Crede signing is looming.

In a press conference yesterday, Jim Pohlad stated that a Joe Crede signing made sense to him:

“We’re not done. The season hasn’t started yet,” Pohlad said. “Frequently, transactions do occur during Spring Training, so it still could happen. There is nothing from us saying, ‘Don’t go get anyone. We’re done. Go into the season and keep your fingers crossed.’ … We still have room in our payroll, and if there are opportunities [to add a player], we’ll pursue them.

Pohlad doesn’t make the personnel decisions, he just cuts the checks, but we at least we know Pohlad’s wallet isn’t holding up the deal. Pohlad was optimistic that the Twins were not done making deals this offseason, contrary to previous reports.

Scott Boras also had some noteworthy quotes this week regarding Joe Crede:

“Joe Crede has been cleared to play and is ready to compete every day, as any other player would be going to camp,” Boras said. “And he’ll be doing so in about 10-14 days…Joe Crede is healthy, the playing surface he plays on is not an issue.”

Boras is obviously trying to sell his client to the Twins, noting that he is healthy and the playing surface (the Metrodome turf) is not an issue. Crede’s back problems have worried Twins officials for some time as playing on turf only intensifies the likelihood of injury.

Acquiring a healthy Joe Crede would be a huge upgrade for Minnesota. Crede hit 17 home runs before his injury as he was on pace to put 30 over the fence by season end. If we get anywhere near that sort of performance from Crede and the rest of our team stays healthy, we should be eyeing postseason play. But again, the keyword being a ‘healthy’ Crede.

Brandon Warne from SethSpeaks.net puts together an argument against acquiring Joe Crede, stating that a Buscher/Harris platoon puts up similar numbers at a fraction of Crede’s cost and health problems.

Jim Pohlad also pointed out that payroll should significantly increase after 2009 as several players are up for arbitration (that and a massive Joe Mauer contract is looming). This gives us some hope that we can keep the core of our young talent together for a few more years, but fans are skeptical as the Pohlads have promised an increased payroll for years.

The Twins also reached middle ground with Matt Guerrier on Thursday, signing him to a 1.475MM dollar one year deal for 2009. Guerrier’s a good pitcher who is best noted for being overworked during the latter part of the 2008 season.

1) Sign Ben Sheets – his health problems seem to scare teams away but we seem to flock towards injury riddled players. By all means, he’s a excellent pitcher who fills out our rotation, making our staff one of the most lethal in baseball. It seems like he’ll go for $8-10MM a year and is a Type A player (and we may be able to get Type A pick compensation back when he leaves). If we were even considering giving Jarrod Washburn $10.35MM a year, we could certainly consider giving Sheets that kind of dough.

Here would be our rotation to start our 2009 season:

1. Liriano
2. Sheets
3. Baker
4. Slowey
5. Blackburn

2) Trade for Adrian Beltre – Send Perkins and other pitching prospects in a deal to the Mariners. Beltre would be the perfect fit our team: a huge bat and stellar defense. However, this is one guy that I’d hope to lock up for a few years rather than just being a one year rental. He does have a no-trade clause with the Twins, but that just means we need to fork up a little more money. Pohlad’s, that banner would look awfully nice in our new stadium.

Here would be our lineup to start the 2009 season:

1. Span
2. Casilla
3. Mauer
4. Morneau
5. Beltre
6. Kubel
7. Young
8. Punto
9. Gomez

3) Sign an 8th inning setup man. Our relief should get better this year as they were overworked last season, but having one more reliable guy in the bullpen is necessary to give us that deadly late inning combination that we’ve become so accustomed to this decade. It makes it really easy knowing that if you have the lead late in the game, you can turn off your television at 10:30 p.m. knowing you won’t wake up disappointed.

4) Sign Manny Ramirez and deal for J.J. Hardy – ok, I’m just kidding…but isn’t it sad that some teams actually think that way? Can we at least lock up Joe Mauer? I don’t want to have to hear the Red Sox and Yankee fans hype this up for the rest of the season.

……

That’s it.

It would be quite a bit of work and we all know the front office likes to hibernate during the offseason, but it would instantly make us one of the favorites to be still playing ball in November. We wouldn’t have a weak spot in our rotation, we would have filled a huge hole at 3rd base with power and defense, and we would have secured a better option in the 8th inning than Crain or Bonser. It’s a long shot, but that’s the fun in dreaming.

I doubt Carl Pohlad would approve. Washburn’s $10.35MM dollar contract is roughly 5x the payroll of our current starting staff, and he’d be no more than our 4th or 5th starter. The other part of the story that seems fishy is that we would be getting Jeff Clement in return. Clement was the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft and certainly has a lot of upside, but are we seriously going to acquire another young catcher? It smells like a Boston fan played a hand in this rumor as the assumption in acquiring Clement would be that Mauer is out the door after his contract expires in two years (most notably to Boston).

Would it be nice to have Jarrod Washburn in the rotation? Yes.

Would it be nice to have a top prospect in the wings? Yes.

Should we really be giving up Delmon Young in a deal that doesn’t fill either of our primary needs? No.

If we are dead-set on dealing Delmon Young, we should focus on the left side of the infield while grabbing a worthwhile setup man. Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, and Baker will be excellent for years to come and with Humber, Mulvey, Swarzak, and Perkins among others for us to pick from, the Twins will definitely be able to fill out that 5th spot in the rotation by season start. By the way, Joe Mauer will be a life-long Twin. This may be the only time I ever say this, but the Twins will pay the big bucks to keep him around. Jeff Clement would be great, but the only time we’d ever use him would be to deal him down the road.

I’m not crazy about this deal. I don’t see the Twins picking up Washburn’s salary and I don’t see the Twins taking a high prospect in Jeff Clement when we have Joe Mauer. It just doesn’t make sense even though both would be nice to have around. I’m also not ready to give up on Delmon Young. Anybody else somewhat surprised that Beltre’s name wasn’t thrown into the mix when that story broke?

In other news, the Twins can officially cross Ty Wigginton’s name off their wishlist as the Baltimore Orioles signed him to a 2 year $6MM dollar deal today. Apparently, other offers were on the table (possibly the Twins?), but that second guaranteed year by Baltimore was enough to ink the deal.

The Chicago White Sox are reportedly going after Bobby Abreu. This comes as a shock to some as the White Sox claimed to be finished making moves this offseason, but the rumor is that they’ve already put a one year, $8MM deal on the table. Could they possibly fill their outfield with Dye, Quentin, and Abreu? It would be a defensive nightmare for Chicago, but their lineup would have as much pop as anybody’s. However, it’s practically a foregone conclusion that Jermaine Dye will be dealt if Abreu is a member of the White Sox next season. Regardless, it has to be exciting to have Ken Williams calling the shots, but I have to say, Twins fans have to like seeing Bobby Abreu’s name in that lineup rather than Jermaine Dye’s.

Scott Baker is thinking long term with the Twins. This is great news as Baker has many good years of baseball left. Here’s to hoping we can lock him up long term.

Former Twins pitcher Eddie Guardado just signed with the Texas Rangers today. Guardado was a key component of the Twins’ AL Central titles in the early part of the decade and its good seeing him get more work.

Wuertz, with his suspect control, never seemed to capture the confidence of Piniella — especially in critical situations. Probably the most important trait to have in a Piniella bullpen is to throw strikes. The writing was on the wall last year when Wuertz was in Iowa and Pineilla was still trotting Howry out there in the 7th inning despite the fact Howry had lost most of his velocity on an already straight fastball and a flat slider.

Wuertz has a fastball that sits 90-93 and a really good slider that sits around 84-86 MPH. While I don’t ever see Wuertz having plus control/command, I think he fell in love with his slider last year and used it is a pitch to get ahead in the count because he wasn’t throwing his fastball for strikes and was having to use his slider for strikes. Obviously a slider isn’t designed to be in the strike zone and having his out pitch double as his get -me-over pitch will take away the guesswork of a hitter (for Wuertz, between his FB and slider) and basically give the meaning of a hanging slider. I believe that change in pitching style changed Wuertz from a strikeout pitcher to a contact pitcher and his strikeouts declined dramatically because of the change in approach. Wuertz also throws a show me change-up to lefthanders, but it is neither effective nor worth thinking about if you’re a left-handed hitter.

If Wuertz can go back to FB/slider pitcher rather than a slider/slider/fastball pitcher of last year, he should be able to project a productive member of the outstanding Oakland pen. His control and lack of a plus pitch against LH’ers will likely prevent him from projecting as a set-up reliever, but he’ll eat innings in the pen and always toy with those right-handed hitters that either pull off the ball or lack the strike zone knowledge on the bottom left quadrant outside of the strike zone.

Richie Robnett:

Drafted by Oakland in the 1st round of the 2004 draft, the 25-year old has had an up and down minor league career.  He is a plus athlete and despite going to an outstanding baseball program at Fresno St., as well as 4+ full year in the Oakland system, has not been able to have the approach that allows the production to equals the tools.

Last year at AAA, he struggled mightily as the advanced pitchers were able to take advantage of his lack of strike zone knowledge and patience; his approach caused his stock to fall. As I originally mentioned, he is an outstanding athlete who has plus bat speed, plus raw power, slightly above average runner, and a plus arm. Although he does have speed, (like most of his game) his instincts prevent him from fully taking advantage of running the bases, as well as playing the outfield where he will take odd routes and misplay singles into doubles.

I am glad that he’ll hopefully be at Iowa next year as this is a perfect project for Von Joshua, who is probably the best hitting instructor in the Cubs’ organization. This is probably one of Robnett’s final shots. If he bombs and the Cubs release him, he’ll get another shot — but instead of a 1st round talent that needs a new setting, he’ll be a 1st round bust trying to hang on.

Justin Sellers:

Drafted in the 6th rd. by Oakland in the 2005 draft, Sellers has not been able to follow in his father’s footsteps by spending part of his 4th year of pro ball was in the majors, as his struggles continued at the plate in Texas League. Unlike his father, who was a pitcher for the Red Sox in the 80s, Sellers is an outstanding defensive SS with great hands and solid range.  He probably projects as the Cubs’ best defensive infielder at this stage depending on if Andres Blanco sticks around after Spring Training. He also seems to have inherited his father’s genetics as far as instinctive side of the game.

While Sellers has an advanced approach for the game whether it be in the field or judging strikes and balls, his approach to hitting is that of a glory hound high school kid used to facing 82MPH fastball with aluminum, as he often tries to muscles up pitches that end up being lazy fly-balls.

Like Robnett, Sellers will likely end up at AAA and would benefit from molding his hitting style to someone like Theriot and close up his stance and focus on hitting gap to gap as that likely be his best and only chance to get to the majors.

Let’s take a look at the action these last few months…

Nov 13th – Looking to deal Delmon Young
Nov 15th – Twins in on Blake
Dec 3rd – Twins front runner for Blake
Dec 6th – Twins out on Blake
Dec 11th – Beltre adds Twins to No-Trade Clause
Dec 14th – Twins interested in Wigginton
Dec 17th – Twins out on Wigginton
Dec 22nd – Twins in on Lyon (Delmon Young rumors fade)
Jan 9th – Twins in on Crede
Jan 9th – Twins out on Crede
Jan 15th – Twins in on Gagne
Jan 16th – Twins in heavy pursuit of Gagne, Lyon
Jan 19th – Twins closing in on Gagne
Jan 22nd – Twins in on Crede (again)
Jan 23rd – Crede, Gagne talks held up
Jan 24th – Twins out on Lyon (signs with Tigers)
Jan 28th – Twins out on Gagne
Jan 29th – Twins don’t offer Crede contract, other teams do, ‘remain interested’
Jan 29th – Twins looking to ‘trade’ for RP
Jan 29th – Twins in on Luis Ayala
Jan 31st – Twins looking to trade Delmon Young

The Twins appear to be as fickle as a 4-year old girl, but from the sequence of events it looks like there’s been a recent shift in focus from free agency towards filling our needs via trade. Whether we couldn’t find the right fit for the right price in free agency, or we’re just being typical Twins ‘cheap’, it seems like everything under the sun has fallen through via free agency (with the exception of Joe Crede, and that doesn’t seem to be going anywhere fast). This of course has lead to new rumors about Delmon Young’s status as a Twin…

Again, I really think we’d be selling Delmon very low.

But if we’re dead set on trading Delmon Young and we packaged him with a few pitching prospects, we should be able to acquire some pretty good talent. Could a J.J. Hardy be thrown back into the mix? Could Adrian Beltre talks be resurfacing here in a few weeks? What else could the Twins have up there sleeves?

Honestly, who knows. But the constant in and out of players, coupled with Young’s name resurfacing again, and that we are looking to ‘trade’ for talent, makes me think that we actually may be looking to move Delmon Young for 3B and RP help. Maybe his no-show at TwinsFest on Friday and Saturday was the last straw for Gardy and Co.

If we had to trade him, let’s really hope we get some value.

It’s also interesting to see how quickly Gagne’s name fell off after we were in hot pursuit of him for weeks…maybe the Twins just wanted to practice their negotiation skills with Scott Boras in preparation for Joe Crede…

Luis Ayala’s name has surfaced after Gagne, Lyon, and Springer’s names were cut from the Twins’ wishlist. Ayala actually put up really solid numbers throughout his career until last season.

A big red flag is that he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2006. He came back to finish strong in 2007 with a 3.19 ERA in 40+ appearances; however, last season he tallied a 5.71 ERA. Maybe last year was a combination of age, a heavier workload, and his Tommy John surgery, but whatever it was, we would probably be able to get him at a pretty cheap price. This would be another classic Twins signing: a risky player with upside potential that we could sign fairly cheaply.

In other news:

The White Sox are reportedly done with free agency.

The Tigers signed Brandon Lyon to be their closer. Lyon was in the mix to be a Twin for some time but decided that he wanted to fill the role as a team’s closer, something Minnesota would not have him do. This could be good news for the rest of the AL Central as Lyon’s numbers as a closer were horrific.

The Tigers also could be looking to deal some of their starting pitching, which makes sense. With Verlander, Bonderman, Galarraga, Jackson, Robertson, Willis, and Miner, they are certainly overstaffed. It’ll be interesting to see what they can get, because most of these guys would be sold low after last season.

The Indians were one of nine teams in attendance for Kris Benson’s work out.

The Royals gave Zack Greinke a four year extension.

Blessed with one of the best curveballs in baseball, as well as one of the most deceptive fastballs, the rise and fall of Rich Hill has been sudden and brings back images of Steve Blass, Mark Wohlers and Rick Ankiel. In this article, I will dicuss why I don’t think it is a mental flaw, but more mechanical at this stage.

Drafted by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2002 draft, Rich Hill was considered a raw LH’er with a developing curve who had hot and cold streaks with untapped potential. After signing with the Cubs, he was sent to Short-Season Boise and struggled with his command and his overall numbers, posting an ERA of 8.36 in 6 games (5 starts) in only 14.1IP with 14BBs, 12Ks, and 4 wild pitches. The following year he returned to Boise and improved, throwing 68IP while walking 32 and striking out 99, before finishing at Lansing where he struggled with his command again walking 36 in 29IP but only allowing 14 hits and striking out 50. He improved his control at Daytona in 2004 while still striking out over 11 per 9IP and holding opponents to around .200. The questions still lingered as far as how outstanding could he be if he had better command and control. Finally, that question was about to be answered.

2005 was Hill’s breakout season as far as his prospect status. He was about to face AA, which usually consist of every organization’s top prospects, as well as the more advanced at AAA later on in the year. Finally able to improve his command and control to where it needed to be to advance to the majors, Hill dominated AA and AAA, throwing a combined 123IP allowing 97 hits while only allowing 35BBs and striking out 182 hitters. In September, Hill received his first taste of the majors and, as expected with most rookie pitchers, he was fatigued and a bit shell shocked.

2006 was Hill’s 1st legit chance at cracking the major league rotation, but that delayed after a poor showing at Mesa. Undeterred by the slow start, Hill was the best pitcher in all of the minors going 7-1 with a 1.80 ERA while throwing 100IP only allowing 62 hits and walking 21 with 135 strikeouts. In July of ’06, he was called up again as injuries ravaged the Cubs starting rotation and the team collapsed to 90+ losses, allowing the Cubs to call-up Hill. He struggled at first again posting a 1-3 record with a 9+ ERA before being send down to Iowa again and being called up in Sept. after a solid run again at Iowa, it finally clicked in the majors as he went 3-1 with an ERA under 4 that final month.

Hill was a favorite in 2007 to earn a rotation spot given the continuing health problems of Kerry Wood, as well as Hill’s strong showing the previous eptember. He did not disappoint in 2007, while likely being the team’s 2nd most productive starter behind Zambrano and looking like one of baseball’s better young pitchers.

The following year it took a turn for the worse as mechanical issues began to take place. Hill was quickly sent to Iowa where he continued to not throw strikes, and he was shuttled between Iowa, Rookie Ball, and High-A. He was sent down to the Dominican Republic to work out his issues and had not shown any improvement and regressed as the year went on.

As to why I think Hill’s struggles so much with his command, I think it is mainly mechanical and NOT MENTAL as many tend to believe.

Mechanically, he has severe shoulder tilt with his glove arm (right arm) severely higher than his throwing shoulder. The reason why he does this to get on top of his 12-6 curve which is why he it is one of the best in the game when it is on. Also, it makes it much more difficult to pick up his FB coming out his hand. One of the side effects on having this throwing mention is that it is very difficult to repeat your delivery, which is the key to throwing strikes since your balance and center of gravity often changes each pitch.

To further illustrate that shoulder tilt, compare him to Greg Maddux who is likely the most mechanically sound pitcher of our generation:

With Maddux you can see a slight shoulder tilt, but he still has the same balance point and his center of gravity is still over his midsection. Not only has his throwing motion kept his healthy all these years, it has allowed to be one of the best control pitchers in MLB history.

Back to Hill and some more illustrations, here is Hill in July of 2006 at Iowa, where he was pitching very well and on one of his hot streaks.

As you can see there is still a shoulder tilt, but given how well he was pitching during this stretch and game, it didn’t throw him off mechanically.

This next picture is a picture from Spring Training of 2008 where he didn’t last long and ended up walking 6 in this short outing.

As you can see, there is a much more pronounced shoulder tilt in the second picture as his pitching hand is well below the knee, compared to the 1st picture where it is well above the knee. I do believe that these mechanical flaws are partially and likely the most important reason why he has struggled so greatly recently.

It is worth noting that Baltimore’s pitching coach is Rick Kranitz, who is outstanding at analyzing pitchers’ mechanics and has spent time in the Cubs organization as a pitching coach. I don’t think it is ironic that Kranitz was the pitching coach at Iowa in 2004 and 2005, which is right when Hill was at his best mechanically, as well as the best he has been as far as his command and control. While this is the worst case scenario, having to unload such a gifted pitcher for so cheap, it is probably the best for RIch Hill to go to Baltimore and work with Kranitz again.

Here is the scouting report I had on Olson:

3 pitches:

• 88-91FB
• 78-81SL
• 80-83CH

http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/olsonga01.shtml (major league numbers)
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=25645 (minor league numbers

As you can see, he appears to be a little gun shy when pitching in the majors, which plagued him at times in the minors. He was trying to pitch perfectly rather than allowing the hitter to get himself which led to the high BB totals in the majors. His slider is probably his best pitch but his FB doesn’t have the command, movement, or velocity to improve his slider and more importantly the 3rd pitch he’ll need (change-up).

Despite good numbers in the minors as well as two average pitches with his FB and slider, I don’t see him making it on the Cubs as a starter. Olson will likely play the role of Marshall last year as the swing/long-relief reliever or hopefully be part of the Peavy trade. Honestly, I don’t see why the trade for Peavy would possibly sway on whether or not Olson is included in the trade as he appears to be a marginal player especially compared to potential stars like Vitters.

With that type of scouting report and Cedeno being out of options to return to Iowa, as well as numerous middle infielders (Fontenot, Miles, Theriot), it was obvious that Cedeno was going to get traded.
As far as Ronny Cedeno’s scouting report, I project Cedeno as a future utility infielder capable of playing SS/2B as well as being able to hit well enough to be that back-up middle infielder. He has a strong arm, good range, fair hands but often lacks the concentration to make the routine plays consistently. At the plate, he generates line drives with fair bat speed but struggles with away pitches, especially low and breaking balls.

He has shown the ability to have a good approach in the minors but that has not carried over to the majors yet. If given a full-time job, I would project him as a .270/.300/.400 hitter while rating slightly below avg. defensively.

Here is my scouting report for Aaron Heilman:

• 2 seam FB (sink): 91-94 MPH above average velocity and average movement for a sinker.
• Splitter: 82-85 MPH average velocity and average downward movement for a split-finger.
• Slider: 82-85 MPH appeared to use it much more in ’08 and was an effective pitch.

Heilman definitely has the stuff to be a set-up man as he has 2-3 plus pitches, but struggled last year with his command and likely his confidence while struggling mightily in the second half of last year. He has never been real solid vs. LH’ers, but last year his splitter and FB whether it was lack of command or mechanical flaw, they were just teeing off on him. In 149 Abs, left-handers hit 8 HRs and drew 24 BBs for a line of (.308/.425/.567).

There are some encouraging signs if he does stick with the Cubs.  He used his slider very well against RH’ers and with Rothschild I expect his slider to become an even more effective weapon. I don’t expect Heilman to do as poorly as he did last year, but I don’t expect him to be much better than Luis Vizcaino or Mike Wuertz. Also, I can’t see his plus FB or his plus splitter to be as hittable as they were in ’07, but that will depend on his command more than anything else.

I’m hoping SD covets Heilman more than Olson because that is the only logical explanation I have for this trade from the Cubs’ standpoint. I’m not against this trade as I explained why I’m not that high on Cedeno or Olson just that all previous signs were pointing towards SD wanting Olson which is why I thought the Cubs traded for Olson in the 1st place.

In what could only be called a huge success, thousands upon thousands flocked to the Metrodome to catch a glimpse of their favorite players and take part in the many events and attractions the event had to offer. Even the line getting into the stadium formed hours before the doors were opened. But those willing fight frostbitten hands and frozen feet were rewarded with prized autographs from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and about 50 other current and former Minnesota Twins.

Even Harmon Killebrew came out to sign for the fans all weekend.

Lines ranged from being 3.5 hours at the longest for Mauer and Morneau, to lines where you could walk right up to the players and within seconds have a signature. It all depended on who was signing at what times, locations, and even who was signing after that group at the same location.

Lines could look deceptively long at any point because everyone could be queuing up for the group signing after the current one. This made for some comedy when the Carlos Gomez line (who was signing after Casilla and Slowey at the same location) was wrapping around the bottom of the stadium prior to him signing, leaving a massive queue for Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey with literally no one coming up to ask for their autographs as fans would be jeopardizing their spot in line to grab a Gomez sig (Carlos Gomez is quite the draw among Twins fans). On average the lines would take 45 minutes to get through depending on the time you arrived at the queue, but there was quite a big variation from line to line.

If you were an autograph seeker, ‘hurry up and wait’ was the name of the game all weekend.

Guys who seemed genuinely excited to be there for the fans: Joe Nathan, Ben Revere, Alexi Casilla, and Ron Gardenhire come to mind; and there didn’t seem to be a bad egg among the bunch. It helps that in Minnesota that you seem to always be rooting for a group of ‘good guys’ (not to be confused with Hawk and DJ’s misinterpretation of ‘good guys’).

TwinsFest was an excellent event that certainly raised its share of money for the community fund it sponsors. Nearly every player gave up their weekend to sign autographs, take pictures, and talk with the local radio station. It’s a wonder why more teams don’t do this.

A quick photo diary of the weekend:

View of Twinsfest from inside the Metrodome. Thousands of fans showed up for the event raising a substantial amount of money for the local community.

Local sports writer La Velle Neal chats with former members of the Twins.

Justin Morneau signing autographs in the press box. Morneau’s line took many over 3 hours on Sunday.

Joe Mauer signing autographs in the press box. Mauer, fortunately, will be ready for opening day.

Harmon Killebrew, the greatest Minnesota Twin ever, signs autographs. Killebrew’s line was relatively short on Sunday taking less than 30 minutes.

Carlos Gomez signs autographs in the center of the stadium. This area was the chaotic part of TwinFest as hundreds of people lined up for these autographs caused lines and bottlenecks all over the Metrodome floor.

An upstairs queue where you would typically find a Mauer, Morneau, or Killebrew signing. These lines were massive and you had to make sure you were close enough to the player in the queue, because when their time for signing was up, everyone who was still in line gets shut out.

In other news:

The team reports to Florida in a few weeks!

Jason Kubel’s deal is rumored to be 2 years and $7M dollars. Solid signing for the Twins.

Brandon Lyon and Russ Springer seem to have signed elsewhere, leaving Eric Gagne as the last remaining free agent reliever with rumors tying to Minnesota.

Joe Crede is still a large target on Minnesota’s radar. He will work out next week for the Giants and Twins. MLBTradeRumors.com believes that he will be in Minnesota when it’s all said and done. We’ll see how much a year on our concrete turf plays a factor as his aging body hasn’t faired too well in recent memory.

Fans have thrown Ben Sheets’ name around with the Twins a few times this week, but there really isn’t any traction there.

Joe Mauer will be ready to go on Opening Day after minor kidney surgery. Good news for the Twins faithful as a fast start would be a welcomed change for Minnesota.

Other than that everything’s been pretty quiet in the AL Central this week.

The Twins have been on the hunt for 8th inning setup man this offseason, and signing either of these players to a short term deal should be a welcomed upgrade to the pen. Both are Twins-type signings: past their prime players that management hopes can return to previous form.

But are they really any better than what we already have (Boof Bonser)?

Let’s break down the stats:
Boof Bonser: WHIP: 1.48, Opponents BA: .333, Opponents Slug: .443
Brandon Lyon: WHIP: 1.48, Opponents BA: .335, Opponents Slug: .458
Eric Gagne: WHIP: 1.46, Opponents BA: .335, Opponents Slug: .494

Clearly, Boof does in fact have a slight statistical edge on Lyon and Gagne and all three have been suspect to giving up the long ball rather consistently. However, adding someone who has the upside of either Lyon or Gagne certainly is a plus. Gagne at one point was the top reliever in baseball and actually finished last season up rather well. Lyon also performed exceptionally well as a setup man in 2007, but was shaken in 2008 when given the closing role, something he would not be asked to do with Minnesota.

A move of this nature would be welcomed at this point. It gives the Minnesota fan base new life and shows that management didn’t completely have a stagnant offseason. Both Lyon and Gagne wouldn’t hurt in a short term deal. If they pan out, we have a lethal 1-2 late inning punch combination with Joe Nathan. If they don’t, we could look to deal them at midseason or just eat their contract. Who knows if another Pat Neshek is brewing down on the farm and in worst case Boof isn’t that bad of a replacement.

In other news, the Twins finally inked a two year deal with Jason Kubel this afternoon. This is a great signing that was due to happen. Kubel is entering the prime of his career and nothing indicates that his stats should falter from previous seasons.

The Chicago White Sox added Bartolo Colon this week. He hasn’t had a good season since 2005 and shouldn’t be too much of a factor as he will be battling for a spot in the rotation, but nonetheless he has good potential and if he finds his form, would be dangerous. This is another upside type of signing at little to no cost.

The White Sox also avoided arbitration with closer Bobby Jenks today signing him to a $5.6m extension.

The Colorado Rockies appear not to be extending their contract on Garrett Atkins. The Twins were formerly in talks with the Rockies about acquiring the third basemen and it now seems fairly apparent that they don’t want him. Atkins may not be the strongest candidate as our third base replacement, but he would nonetheless be an upgrade as long as he didn’t cost an arm and a leg.

TwinsFest kicks off this Friday! Look for updates from the action after the weekend.

To go along with Pie, you will likely see Rich Hill and Ronny Cedeno, who are also out of options, likely to be traded in the near future. Once Cedeno is traded, then you’ll see the Cubs sign Rich Aurilia to be that clubhouse leader and provide more pop from the powerless bench as well as someone who can play 1B and 3B. Even with Aurilia, the Cubs’ bench will be sub-par, and given the recent injury history of both Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley, it could be stretched thin. Luckily, it seems that the leg problems that plagued Aramis Ramirez early in his career (likely from lack of conditioning) have gone away as Ramirez looks to be more dedicated in the weight room compared to 5 years ago.

Scouting Reports

Hank Williamson:

RHP So. R-R 6-5 205 San Jacinto JC Houston (Lamar

Williamson attended Rice as a freshman and did not pitch, but got everyone’s attention with a solid mid-90s fastball during fall practice after he transferred to San Jac. He became the ace on a talent-laden Gators pitching staff, going 7-3, 2.68 with 68 strikeouts in 89 innings. He’s been more steady at 89-93 mph this spring. His secondary pitches are a split-finger, which shows quality life at times, and a developing slider. Scouts still consider Williamson projectable and a work-in-progress, and would like to see a better breaking ball. He’s signed to go to Lamar next year, where he could blossom.

Garrett Olson:

3 pitches:

88-91FB

78-81SL

80-83CH

http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/olsonga01.shtml (major league numbers)

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=25645 (minor league numbers

As you can see, he appears to be a little gun shy when pitching in the majors, which plagued him at times in the minors. He was trying to pitch perfectly rather than allowing the hitter to get himself which led to the high BB totals in the majors. His slider is probably his best pitch but his FB doesn’t have the command, movement, or velocity to improve his slider and more importantly the 3rd pitch he’ll need (change-up).

Despite good numbers in the minors as well as two average pitches with his FB and slider, I don’t see him making it on the Cubs as a starter. Olson will likely play the role of Marshall last year as the swing/long-relief reliever or hopefully be part of the Peavy trade. Honestly, I don’t see why the trade for Peavy would possibly sway on whether or not Olson is included in the trade as he appears to be a marginal player especially compared to potential stars like Vitters.

Hank Williamson looks to be a minor league reliever throughout his pro career given an inconsistent splitter and no real breaking ball. However, he did put up better numbers than his ERA would indicate likely caused by relievers coming in after him who are minor league fillers and gave up the inherited runs.

Back to Felix Pie. I drool over the tools he possess, especially defensively with outstanding range and a plus arm both in accuracy and strength. He just wasn’t showing enough progress with the bat to merit putting him on the roster even over a marginal player like Joey Gathright. Gathright is more likely to come up with an occasional pinch-hit and play similar defensively as a defensive replacement without further stunting Pie’s growth by rotting on the bench.

Plus, there appeared to be some issues with Pie and Piniella as far as Pie’s work ethic or dedication to the game. Pie has too long of a swing for someone with average bat speed, marginal to average power, and an inability to hit even an average breaking ball from both LH’ers and RH’ers. The hole on his inner half as well as the poor strike zone judgment always put him two strike counts that someone with his abilities at the plate can’t hit out of as much as he was in that count.

There are already rumors in Baltimore of putting Pie in LF, Adam Jones in CF, and Nick Markakis in RF, which would likely compete with Cleveland as the defensive OF in baseball, but I don’t think Pie can hit well enough for a starting CF’er or a 4th OF’er at this stage, let alone a starting LF’er.

He’s no Manny Ramirez, but he will certainly do.

Kubel’s young age and rising numbers make this extension a no-brainer. As a home grown Twin, he’s shown stability at the plate and adds rare pop to an otherwise bunt and run lineup. A two year deal should be a bargain for Kubel, who would have the opportunity, just as many of his Minnesota peers, to seek a larger payday elsewhere after his short term contract would expire.

Many, including LaVelle Neal, expect Kubel to have a breakout season. Anything better than .275 and 20 HR’s would be a welcomed addition to the Twins lineup.

Entering the prime of his career, expect no less from Kubel.

…leading to today’s news throwing the Twins in the rumor mill of having interest in Young.

Let me put this bluntly: It’s not going to happen.

Let’s take a look at his numbers over the last few years: .314 and 14 HR (2006), .315 and 9 HR (2007), and most recently .284 and 12 HR (2008). At 32, as long as he doesn’t pick up the syringe, expect .280 and 10 HR production that should rapidly decline for 5 years at $12M a pop. Platooning Buscher and Harris would yield just about as much at the plate at 1/16th the cost. Also expect the Rangers to ask for one of our young starters in return.

Would we love him on our team? Yes.

Is he worth the cost? Absolutely Not.

Despite Michael Young’s popularity, ability to hit for average, and extreme durability; his massive contract, age, and deceptively mediocre production make him a non-candidate for the Twins in 2009.

If the Twins actually make a move for Young, it may be the turning point of management spend policy.

Don’t hold your breath.

Twins fans, if you’ve been hibernating this offseason apparently you’re not alone; the front office has been napping right beside you. In an offseason where it’s obvious we need to upgrade before April 6th, we’ve talked big and done very little. So here’s your recap of the last few months:

–The Twins re-signed Nick Punto to a 2 year 8 million dollar contract.

–The Twins signed knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to a minor league deal.

That’s it.

Surprised?

From the sounds of it, names like Adrian Beltre, Ty Wiggington, J.J. Hardy, Casey Blake, Joe Crede, Mark DeRosa and Michael Young, among others, have been thrown around on various rumor boards; but as we stand now, every major lead has come to a dead end. And this by no means is anything new for the Twins fan out there.

We’ve watched Minnesota dump big name players year in and year out to make room for other up and coming stars. However, what makes this year frustrating is that we’re not seeing the payroll gain from the losses of Santana, Hunter, and Silva being reinvested in the team. We’re just watching each FA opportunity fall to the wayside while we have the makings of a great team that needs just a little more to get over the hump.

So what is it that we need?

It’s simple: upgrades at the left side of the infield and relief help.

Now that Minnesota’s re-signed Punto, (unfortunately, Ron Gardenhire insists that he will be the Opening Day starter) we need to look at 3B to replace the Harris/Buscher platoon and find a real bat that won’t just make our lineup more lethal, but will also help the stars of our lineup see more favorable pitches. We’ve gotten close on Casey Blake and Mark DeRosa this month but nothing came of it, leaving Adrian Beltre, Ty Wiggington or Joe Crede for us to bid on (and the Giants are already moving in on Joe Crede). So what are we going to do?

Unfortunately as Twins fans we fight the internal battle of the optimist and the realist when it comes to our off-season acquisitions and realize that the optimist rarely ever wins, but half the fun is in hoping, right?

The optimist: We take a stab at Adrian Beltre. Yes, he no-trade-claused the Twins recently, but that’s protocol for a player wanting more money in the event of a trade. Adrian Beltre has the most upside of any of the 3B out there this year and would be a huge threat in the middle of our lineup. We would have made a bigger stab at Blake or DeRosa if we thought there wasn’t something else we wanted down the road, right?

The realist: The Twins wait around a few months and hope the prices fall on somebody so they can grab them at a discount. We’ll take a hard look at Ty Wigginton and decide if we want to pay a few million extra to grab him. If we decide not to we start the season comfortably having done nothing to improve our infield and hope that the Harris/Buscher platoon can pan out.

One of these days the optimist will win a battle or two. But as our current ownership stands I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s frustrating to the Twins fan who really thinks we could put forth a World Series caliber product if given the appropriate upgrades, but I suppose that’s the fun in being a Minnesota Twins fan. Being the Davids of baseball is far more satisfying than being the Goliaths.

On the defensive side of the ball, our relief was terrible late last season and possibly cost us a division crown. Our relief was overworked and we needed a few more arms to help out. Luckily for us, last year Jose Mijares came along and nearly saved our bullpen (and he’s pitching phenomenally right now in winter ball).

With Pat Neshek out again this year, we need an 8th inning setup man for Nathan to help fill that void, as well as a few more quality arms in the bullpen throughout the season. This is going to help out guys like Guerrier who was just killed when he wasn’t given the appropriate time off in-between appearances later in the season as our relief continued to wear thinner and thinner.

Signing guys like R.A. Dickey (most likely low impact), could still help out some of our relief later in the season when we start to overwork them. And signing Dickey to a minor league deal isn’t going to hurt anyone (although LEN3 may disagree). Hopefully there will be some more positive news coming your way next week.

In other news today:

Joe Mauer had Kidney Surgery, but it doesn’t look like it will be serious. Thank God.

The Rangers may pick up Eddie Guardado, good for him.

The White Sox are looking to deal Gavin Floyd for Brian Roberts straight up.

The Giants seem to be entering the Manny Ramirez debacle. If things keep going like they’re going we might just snag him out from everyone in early April for $15m/yr!!!

Like why, for example, Marshawn Lynch finds it necessary to stop running when he hits the line of scrimmage (and killing my fantasy season in the process) or when we can expect Favre’s new Wrangler ads? So, what do ya got, Greg and Dan? (Note: actual exchange forthcoming):

Dan: Man, there’s a lot to like about Thomas Jones…and what he likes is a lot of blocking up front.
Greg: The Jets are up to 300 yards on offense early in the 3rd Quarter. Now that’s very, very productive.

But I digress. Let’s talk about baseball.

The fellas in St. Louis have been quiet on the acquisition front since they inked Trever Miller to a $500K incentive-laden deal and traded for Khalil Greene (taking on the entire $6.5 million he’s owed). Brian Fuentes remains firmly within Tony La Russa’s sights, but, GM John Mozeliak was more guarded in his assessment:

“We’ve said all along that if there’s a chance we can address the closer role, we’re going to try…We’re open and willing to explore. We also are not giving up hope on some other fronts as well should we not be able to accomplish this.”

I would have a tough time drinking the Kool-Aid if they commit 3 years and $40+ 30 million to a 33 year old reliever. Not to belabor the point, but even with the bullpen problems of 2008, I don’t see the point to signing a big-ticket closer. It’s such a volatile position, and we already have the arms to get those tough outs on the team. I’m willing to ride the Perez/Motte/Kinney train rollercoaster into next Spring and see what happens. If they can’t get the job done, it’s not like there won’t be a closer available when Pittsburgh or San Francisco or Washington are having their annual fire sales in June. I simply don’t understand locking up a closer, who’ll pitch 70 innings during a good year, to a long-term deal…unless the name on the back of his jersey reads “Rivera” or “Sutter”.

Regarding our new shortstop, I was lukewarm on Khalil to begin with, and I’m still not very optimistic, but…at least there’s a bit of offensive upside with him (certainly something you can’t say about new Orioles SS Cesar Izturis). Still, there’s not a whole lot to like about Greene. His defense is not as good as Izturis’, but Cesar played above his ability last season, and I imagine there will be some regression with his age and a switch back to the DH league. Thus, any defensive “drop-off” from Izturis to Greene should be limited.

But this trade wasn’t about defense. No, the real reason the Cards picked up this “close-out special” is the career .427 SLG Greene brings with him (as compared to a baffling .331(!) from Izturis). Unfortunately, that slugging percentage does NOT come equipped with any ability to reach base or hit a baseball with any frequency.

Khalil Greene had a nice rookie campaign in 2004, hitting .273/.349/.446 with 15 HR and 65 RBI over 139 games (he finished 2nd in the RoY voting). Since that season, though, he has posted an OBP above .300 exactly once, and had the worst season of his career in 2008, playing in only 105 games and hitting .213/.260/.339…brutal! Worth noting however, Greene was nearly as valuable offensively last year in 105 games as Izturis was in 135, (67 OPS+ for Cesar, 64 for Greene). That said, I think the team is getting a player in Greene who provides an overall upgrade at the position (provided he can stay healthy…and thats questionable). I don’t think a line of .245/.300/.450 wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect, and that would be a nice addition to the lineup. As of December 15th, I remain cautiously optimistic. To be continued…

Finally, before I go, there’s an intriguing name floating around in Free Agentland as of last week. The Orioles did not offer a contract to Daniel Cabrera before the December 13th deadline (I guess because they felt comfortable with that veritable pitching stockpile they have featuring…um…Jeremy Guthrie…Garrett Olson…and Brian Burres? I’ll say!). Admittedly, there’s not a lot to like about Cabrera, but let’s look at the positives, shall we?

He’ll only be 28 in May of next year, and he’s pitched 384.3 innings over the last two seasons. Granted, his ERA was north of 5.00 both years, but a portion of that is certainly due to the level of competition in the AL East coupled with having the Baltimore Orioles play behind him. Tough times are certain to follow in those circumstances. Also on the plus side, Cabrera can strike out a lot of guys. 651 over his five-year career to be exact.

Now, Daniel Cabrera is not a prospect, but he does have potential given the right situation. His control, which has never been great, was terrible last season, and he generally seemed like he was struggling all the time. Nonetheless, he’s shown flashes of brilliance in the past, and has the ability to strike out 150-160 hitters over 180-200 innings in a season. I don’t see why a ticket out of Baltimore and some advice from Dave Duncan couldn’t turn things around, even slightly.

A move to the Senior Circuit, with the luxury of facing the pitcher 2-3 times/game could probably shave 0.5-1.0 run off of Cabrera’s ERA, making him a younger, cheaper Braden Looper, with a better ability to miss bats. Cabrera made $2.87 million last season, and probably shouldn’t expect too much of a raise. Do I like him on a 1-year deal at $3 million or 2 years at $6.5? Yes I do. Very much, thank you.

Well, what do you all think?

1. Do we need Brian Fuentes’ left arm to reach the post-season in ‘09 or can the team walk a tight rope with the youth movement?
2. Should Mozeliak kick the tires on Daniel Cabrera or should we keep looking for another arm in the rotation?

Roster spots are going fast!

UPDATE: Per MLBTradeRumors, It seems 11 teams have expressed interest in signing Cabrera. The only specific team mentioned is the Pittsburgh Pirates. I would hope the Cardinals are among the remaining 10.

Khalil Greene is apparently owed 6.5 million in 2009 and will be a free agent at the end of the season. Again, the full details of this trade have not been released yet so we are unsure if the Cards are on the hook for the full $6.5 million or if the Padres have agreed to eat some of this money.

Greene had a breakout year in 2007, cranking 27 HR’s and driving in 97 RBI’s, while playing a very smooth shortstop. Greene struggled at the plate in 2008, though, as experts feel he was consumed with trying to hit the long ball. Khalil only hit .213 in 2008 with 10 HR’s and 35 RBI’s through 105 games. His season was cut short July 31st as he broke his hand after apparently punching a storage unit.

Reports show that Khalil Greene had a falling out with the Padres front office and it has been rumored for a while now that they were wanting to move him, whether just to get rid of his salary or turn the page with someone else.

I am sure the Cardinals are hoping that a change of scenery will help Greene return to his ‘07 form. Khalil Greene has performed better away from pitcher-friendly Petco park over his years there, to the tune of a .270 BA and 50 HR’s versus .255 and 30 HR’s at Petco.

When the details of this deal are finally released we will be able to truly decide if the Cards have made a smart move here. Hopefully they have’nt given up some top name prospects and likewise, hopefully Greene can return to being the electric, smooth, power hitting shortstop that helped him make a name for himself.

I will say it’s nice to actually see the Cards doing something. They have made some moves over the past couple of years but not necessarily what a lot of fans were hoping for. Again, that’s why we’re fans and not management. The Cards continue to compete and hopefully with a few more strong moves this off season the Cards can climb back to the top of the Central.

coop92 is a contributing author to Midwest Sports Fans, as well as the editor at Midwest Sports Junkies. Check out his site for additional analysis of the Cardinals, the BCS, and Missouri Tigers football.