For the Cubs, This is Definitely Not “The Year”

Just when you think the Cubs’ season can’t get any worse, it did.

Geovany Soto will now be on the DL due to a left oblique strain he suffered during batting practice Wednesday. Soto will be the 13th person that the Cubs have had to put on the DL this season. There are now questions about who will be the backup to Koyie Hill, who started Friday and will start most of the games while Soto is out.

Jake Fox is currently the backup, but Lou said they are looking outside the organization to add depth at the position.. Mark Johnson is the catcher in Iowa that has Major League experience, but he is on the DL so that doesn’t seem like a logical answer. Steve Clevenger is another catcher, but he is new to the job after being converted from shortstop. Chris Robinson, who they got from Detroit and is currently in Iowa, looks like to be the most logical internal answer.

The Cubs’ season has been nothing but disappointment, and they can’t seem to get away from injuries. A day after activating Aramis Ramirez, Reed Johnson, and Angel Guzman off the DL, the Cubs had to put Ryan Dempster on the 15-day DL due to a broken toe. Believe it or not, the Cubs are not totally out of the division race. Before Friday the Cubs stand just 3.5 games out of first place. Even though the Cubs are not out of it, there is no “This is the Year” feeling.

Lou Pinella said that there is really nothing you can do about injuries, and while that is true, players can still be careful what they do. The Cubs might not win the World Series this year, but this year is not a total loss. This a learning year for the Cubs and their management. The Cubs should learn from the Milton Bradley signing. Never sign a player who is not a proven player. Bradley has never played the whole season, he has had only one good year, and he has had problems with previous players and coaches.

What the Cubs have never had was a great farm system. Very rarely do the Cubs have a rising star. The only one I can think of is Randy Wells. Most of their first round draft picks have been busts (like Prior due to injury, or like Felix Pie due to lack of production), or they have never made it to the big leagues. With all these problems the Cubs need an overhaul. The only way to get better is to trade away some guys, and recruit potential All Stars. They need to stay away from players that get hurt. (Rich Harden and Bradley come to mind.)

Another huge problem are the fans. One year when Dusty Baker was managing the team the Cubs were playing the last home stand, were 20 game out of first, and they still managed to get 40,000 to show up. Even worse was when the Cubs came back to win the game in the 9th, the fans went insane like they were playing in the World Series. Cubs fans seem to be living in there own little baseball world. If no fans showed up maybe the team would do something different, but no matter how bad the Cubs do they always sell out at Wrigley.

Until things change, the Cubs will continue to go nowhere in the next few years.

* – Lou Piniella photo credit: AP Photo/Paul Connors via Sports Maven

Chicago Cubs: Looking Ahead to 2009 Part II – Players Who Will Regress

Yesterday, I wrote about where I expect the Cubs to finish in 2009 as well as a player-by-player analysis of which players I expect to improve over last year. Today, I will conclude with which players I expect to remain similar as well as which players I expect to regress.

Players I expect to remain constant:

Derrek Lee: Age is starting to become a factor, his prime years are just wrapping up and he has likely carved a niche as a .285/.370/.480 type of hitter for the next few years.

Aramis Ramirez: Just a model of consistency as over the last 5 years his OPS+ has been 138, 135, 126, 129, and 128. He has clearly established himself as the Cubs best offensive weapon and likely the best player on the team. The Cubs would be wise to hit him over an inferior Lee. I think we’ll see a .290/.370/.530 type of year for about the next 3 years.

Ted Lilly: Despite having mentioned Zambrano’s projected win total in yesterday’s post, I’m not big on using that as a primary gauge of a pitcher’s success, and I don’t think Lilly’s outstanding W-L record of last year is a necessarily representative of his pitching. There were some definite encouraging signs as the season progressed. His velocity improved as the season wore on, his cutter to RH’ers developed nicely, and on occasion his change shows signs of being a plus pitch. Given how well he has done the first two years with the Cubs, I expect similar production and hopefully the progress of his cutter as well incorporating the Rothschild slider more. will lead him to greater results.

Carlos Marmol: Despite losing the feel for his FB and slider at times last year, he was obviously outstanding given that he allowed 40 hits in 87+IP and that he struck out over 30 more men than he has allowed on base in those 87 IP. Lou Piniella has to be very aware of monitoring his usage. As I mentioned before, I’m not confident with the pen and this will put further usage on the obvious best reliever on the staff.

Wuertz: I expect a similar type of year from Wuertz. Wuertz has marginal command on both his FB and his slider and if there is one trait not to have with Piniella, it is a reliever that walks hitters. With that said, Wuertz still has a 65 slider and a good FB that will benefit off the effectiveness of that slider.

Reed Johnson: Johnson and Edmonds were Hendry’s best moves last year. While it was not surprising that Edmonds was on the market given how poorly he started in SD (shoulder surgery that off-season), it was a shock that Toronto would non-tender Johnson. His numbers last year were not extremely different from his career numbers and if Piniella sets up Johnson in a platoon with Fukudome against LH’ers, he will be able to produce like he did last year and become that valuable asset to assist the fragile starting OF’ers.

Players that I expect to regress:

Ryan Theriot: He continued to surprise me even though I expected him falter and kept waiting for him to do so. As he did in ’07, he did fatigue as the season progressed and became more of an offensive liability as the season wore on, but his improved eye at the plate over ’07 kept him as a high OBP despite the loss of bat speed once he fatigued. Every year I wonder why teams pitch him away, yet they do. I know why Hendry and Piniella have stressed LH’ed balance in the lineup, because as we seen with LA and AZ, teams with solid command pitchers can toy with the RH’ed Cubs hitters, especially Ramirez, Lee, and of course Soriano, by going away, then FB in on the hands, and then get them out away.

With Theriot, teams have to do the opposite by using the outside breaking ball to setup the FB on the inner-half, which Theriot can struggle at time to muscle into RF. I still expect teams to employ this strategy and retire him more frequently. I am expecting Theriot to hit .290/.370/.350 next year. This makes him still worth starting, however I do feel he would be ideal in a LaRussa type of batting order hitting 9th in-front of the top of the order.

Ryan Fontenot: I think he is going to be capable of being a starting 2B next year, and I am rooting for him to beat Aaron Miles who I will highlight later. However, there is no chance that Fontenot will come close to his numbers of last year, which based on OPS were higher than Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, Soto, etc. I project him to hit .280/.350/.420 in a platoon type of role with Miles.

Ryan Dempster: He earned the recognition as the ace of the staff last year as well as the 1st start of the NLDS vs. the Dodgers. One of the leaders in batting average against for a starter, Dempster only allowed 14HRs in 206.7IP, and displayed the best control of his life (minus the NLDS). That was Dempster’s 1st year starting since playing for the Reds and then undergoing arm surgery and his 140 IP increase of innings from ’07 to ’08 should be worth following this year. What we saw last year from Dempster was his ceiling and what we will likely see from him next year will be greater inconsistency with his command and likely the regression from a #1 starter to more likely a 2/3 starter which is where his talent and suspect control dictates where he should end up. Barring injury, I still expect Dempster to match the monetary value of his control with his production.

Geovany Soto: I had Soto as the team MVP as much for his leadership and game calling skills as his outstanding offensive production. I’m hoping I am wrong about him regressing, as I’d love to see a repeat, but as the season wore on, whether it was fatigue or the league adjusting, he failed to adjust. Soto had started to pull off the ball, instead of going gap to gap, which is what has made him a much better hitter than his pre-’07 minor league numbers would indicate. Also, his strength and conditioning program appears to not only have gotten him in better shape, but generated a quicker bat than when I last saw him at Low-A. I’m probably being overly skeptical as far as expecting a regression, as he’ll still be an All-Star with plus offense, plus makeup, and average defensive tools for years to come. I expect Soto to hit .275-.280/.355-.360./.490-.495 next year.

2008 MLB Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto Wins NL, Alexei Ramirez 2nd in AL

Cubs win! Cubs win!

No really…the Cubs actually won something.

Chicago Cubs catcher Geovanny Soto was named NL Rookie of the Year earlier today, capturing 31 out of 32 possible first place votes. Apparently either Dusty Baker or Joe Morgan has a vote, because one vote inexplicably went to Reds first baseman Joey Votto. It wasn’t even really a race in the NL this year — Geovanny Soto had a very strong first season and deserved to be Rookie of the Year.

In the American League, Chicago White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez finished second to Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria, who captured all 28 of the first place votes.

(When asked for comment as to why there are 32 first place votes in the NL, but only 28 in the AL, Bud Selig picked his nose and wiped the boogers underneath his desk. He then muttered something defensive, shouted “Beam me to paradise”, and was then transported into his dream world — where he is a backup dancer for the Talking Heads.)

Alexei Ramirez received 18 second place votes to finish ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury for second in the AL. Ozzie Guillen could not be reached for comment, but wants to know who Jay Mariotti voted for.

Soto’s assent to Rookie of the Year was not a surprise based on his strong start to the season and relatively consistent play throughout. Plus, he’s a Chicago Cub so even if he didn’t deserve the accolade he would have gotten it anyway. The case of Alexei Ramirez, however, is much different.

The Cuban Missile was hitting an awful .114 on May 7th. But he came on strong in the second half of the season and punctuated his stellar play with a grand slam to win the September 29th makeup game against the Detroit Tigers, which forced a one-game playoff against the Twins. For the season, Ramirez set a major league record to rookies by hitting four grand slams.

The outlook for both players appears promising. Geovanny Soto will resume his role as the Cubs’ catcher next season and be fawned over by fans across the globe regardless of how well his team does. He has, however, no chance of ever catching in a World Series unless he is traded. Alexei Ramirez appears poised to take over the shortstop position for the White Sox next season and is a prominent building block for Ken Williams as he reshapes the White Sox again roster for next year and beyond.

Congratulations to Geovanny Soto for winning, and to Alexei Ramirez for storming back in the 2nd half to finish #2. The only number that really matters though, is this: 1.

That’s how many more playoff games the White Sox won than the Cubs this year.

It’s how many World Series titles the White Sox have this century.

And it’s the number of future presidents who love the White Sox and hate the Cubs.

Thank you for reading this objective analysis of the Rookie of the Year voting. Geovanny, I swear it’s nothing personal. You just play for a crappy franchise.

[tags]chicago cubs, chicago white sox, mlb, rookie of the year[/tags]