If you are a fan of the Chicago White Sox, as I am, then this is a tune to keep in mind once next Tuesday rolls around. Why? That is when the Good Guys host the Twin Cities Piranhas in a three game set that will decide the AL Central.

Let’s preview the series and see just how optimistic White Sox fans should reasonably be about their team rising to the occasion in the most important series of the season.

White Sox-Twins: The Preceding Weekend

As I write this on Saturday morning, the White Sox sit 5.0 games behind Minnesota in the standings, thanks to last night’s thrilling come-from-behind home victory over the Royals. Each team has two games left before their pivotal tilt begins

The White Sox send Edwin Jackson to the hill today at home versus Kyle Davies. Jackson has been outstanding since the White Sox acquired him, although his history versus Kansas City is a bit checkered. Davies’ history against the White Sox is similarly checkered. Still, I think everyone would be shocked if the White Sox didn’t win this battle.

On Sunday, Freddy Garcia takes the hill for Chicago against Sean O’Sullivan of Kansas City. I see no discernible advantage here, so this game is a toss-up.

The Twins are in Cleveland, where they were shut down last night. Today, Nick Blackburn takes on rookie Carlos Carrasco and on Sunday it’s Kevin Slowey against Mitch Talbot. Carrasco and Talbot are better than you think, while Slowey has struggled since returning from injury. Blackburn has poor overall numbers but has been very good over the last 3-4 weeks.

All in all, I expect both the White Sox and Twins to split their games this weekend, meaning the Twins will still have a 5.0 game lead on Tuesday. From a White Sox perspective, this needs to be the absolute worst case weekend scenario. Losing any more ground is simply out of the question with only three weeks left in the season.

Update 9/13: Well, this didn’t go quite as planned. The Twins both of their weekend games while the White Sox split with Kansas City. So the Sox sit 6.0 games out as their pivotal series with Minnesota begins.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Tuesday

• First pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN
• Pitching Matchup: Francisco Liriano (13-7, 3.24 ERA) vs John Danks (13-10, 3.54 ERA)

This is a terrific pitching matchup in a series full of them. Liriano and Danks, both lefties, have had remarkably similar seasons. Not only are their overall numbers very similar, but their numbers against their Tuesday opponent are also similar.

• Danks vs MIN this year: 5 G, 2-1, 34.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 25:9 K:BB
• Liriano vs CHI this year: 4 G, 2-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 20:13 K:BB

Both guys have actually pitched better against their rival this year than over their careers. Danks and Liriano have 5.00+ ERAs and 1.50+ WHIPs career against Minnesota and Chicago, respectively. And while both pitchers come into this game on the heels of at least two straight quality starts (Liriano has three straight), both have thrown up two duds out of their last six outings.

So history, both recent and distant, tells us that this may not be the low-scoring pitchers’ duel that we otherwise might expect just looking at the names.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Danks’ and Liriano’s home/road split this year should make White Sox fans feel better:

• Danks at home this year: 3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .218 BAA, 81:25 K:BB
• Liriano on road this year: 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .266 BAA, 82:26 K:BB

Interestingly, while Liriano’s numbers match up with this career splits, Danks over his career has actually been about the same on the road as he is at home. Still, the fact that this game is in Chicago appears to be, from a pitching standpoint, a clear advantage for Chicago.

Which batters can we expect to step up?

For Minnesota, Michael Cuddyer absolutely owns Danks (1.369 OPS in 45 ABs). Joe Mauer hits .349 career against Danks but doesn’t hit him especially hard (.419 SLG). A positive for Chicago is that Justin Morneau has always hit well against Danks (1.222 OPS in 31 ABs) but remains out while dealing with the effects of a concussion.

Chicago’s players have about half the ABs against Liriano as the Twins’ players against Danks, but a couple guys jump out: Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez. Paulie has a 1.141 OPS and 2 HRs in 17 ABs against Liriano while Alexei has a 1.088 OPS in 17 ABs. Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and Mark Teahen, however, have been neutralized by Liriano.

White Sox-Twins Tuesday Prediction: Both teams have a couple of guys with especially strong numbers against the opposing pitcher, and both pitchers have struggled in this matchup. I expect a close game in which relief pitchers will likely play a big role during the last three innings. With the White Sox getting Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz back to go along with Chris Sale, this isn’t as scary a proposition as it was as recently as a week ago.

White Sox win it 6-5.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Wednesday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: WCIU
• Pitching Matchup: Brian Duensing (8-2, 2.02 ERA) vs Gavin Floyd (10-12, 3.91 ERA)

This is the game that terrifies me and that should terrify all White Sox fans.

Gavin Floyd’s terrific mid-summer run, which is his track record, helped propel the White Sox back into the AL Central race (almost exactly as I predicted, by the way) when they looked all but dead early in the season. Unfortunately, Floyd’s track record suggests that he’ll be just an average pitcher over the season’s final month (career 6-9, 4.22 ERA in 22 September starts).

As if on cue, Floyd has three starts giving up 5 earned runs or more since the calendar turned to August. Most frightening for White Sox fans is that two of those starts came against Minnesota and the third was his most recent outing against Detroit.

That’s not encouraging.

Duensing, on the other hand, is a guy who has pitched well in August and September. In 21 careers starts during the season’s final two months, Duensing is 9-2. He has a 2.81 August ERA and a 2.56 September ERA (though his WHIP is 1.36 and BAA is .280).

Against the White Sox Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 9 career appearances, some of them out of the pen. Floyd has a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his career against Minnesota and is just 4-7.

(Stop me when you find something that leads you to believe the White Sox will win this game. Seriously. I’m trying really hard to find something.)

At home, Floyd is slightly better than he is on the road while Duensing is decidedly better at home (1.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) than on the road (3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Unfortunately, Duensing’s road numbers are better than Floyd’s career home numbers.

Ugh.

From a hitters’ perspective, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin are the only White Sox players who will be looking forward to this matchup. Alexei is 5-12 lifetime against Duensing with a .962 OPS. CQ is 5-9 against Duensing with 2 HR and a 1.822 OPS.

So Quentin needs to make sure he doesn’t get hurt between now and Wednesday because the White Sox will need his power to have a chance.

For the Twins, an entire phalanx of hitters will be looking forward to facing Floyd. Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Joe Mauer all have OPS’ above 1.000 in 24, 35, and 34 ABs, respectively.

White Sox-Twins Wednesday Prediction: During June and July, Gavin Floyd was basically automatic. Every time he started you just knew the White Sox would have a great chance to win. While he hasn’t been terrible in August and September, his two recent outings against Minnesota, and his history against the Twins, are not encouraging.

Brian Duensing is one of the really good young pitchers that not too many people know about. White Sox fans and other AL Central aficionados do, but that’s about it. As September progresses, and over the next few years, that will probably change…and frankly, that sucks. The last thing the White Sox need is another annoyingly solid starter to haunt us for the next few years.

Even me, the most optimistic of all White Sox fans, cannot find a reason to predict victory on Wednesday. I hope I’m wrong.

Twins win 5-2.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Thursday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN / MLB Network
• Pitching Matchup: Carl Pavano (16-11, 3.47 ERA) vs Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99 ERA)

I love Danks, Floyd, and Jackson. All are above average pitchers who typically give the White Sox a chance to win. But if you asked me who I’d want on the bump if my life depended on a White Sox W, I’d choose Mark Buehrle every time.

I’ve written before about Buehrle’s status as the ace of the White Sox and how underrated he is. A major reason for this is that while Buehrle’s overall career numbers are not overwhelming, he has usually stepped up big against two of the three teams that have been the White Sox main consistent rivals during Buehrle’s tenure: Minnesota and Detroit.

• vs Minnesota: 25-17 in 46 starts, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• vs Detroit: 16-8 in 29 starts, 3.01 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

(Cleveland fans, shut up. I know the Indians have killed Buehrle – 12-15 lifetime record – but that means nothing for the purposes of this discussion.)

This year, Buehrle has been predictably strong against Minnesota. He is 2-1 in three starts with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s only struck out eight Twins in 23 innings, but he’s also only walked three. Vintage Buehrle.

So if you’re a White Sox, you feel good about the man on the hill for you on Thursday.

Unfortunately, Twins fans will feel pretty good with their own mustachioed mound maestro: Carl Pavano. The Big Apple Pariah has resurrected his career with an outstanding season in Minnesota. And unlike many Minnesota pitchers, Pavano is better on the road (3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) than at home (3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).

He has not, however, been quite as good against the White Sox this season. His overall numbers are 2-1 in three starts with a 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a .315 BAA. In his defense though, Pavano does have a sterling 13:1 K:BB rate against Chicago, and 15 of the 28 hits he’s given up to the White Sox, along with 6 of the 11 earned runs, came in his last start against the Good Guys. His other two starts against Chicago were both very good.

So we really can’t know what to expect from the White Sox offense against Pavano Thursday night. He could shut us down or we could tattoo him again. Both have already happened this year.

And that’s where I like the White Sox chances. Buehrle’s worst start against Minnesota this year was his first, back in April: 8 innings, 4 ER. He went 8 IP, 3 ER his next time out, then 7 IP, 0 ER after that. The trend is going in the right direction, which is the opposite for Pavano.

The hitters to watch for the White Sox in this matchup, based on the history, are Paul Konerko (.963 OPS in 27 ABs), A.J. Pierzynski (1.045 OPS in 22 ABs), and Alex Rios (.924 OPS in 22 ABs). This may be a good day to rest Quentin though. He’s 0-10 lifetime against Pavano.

Minnesota’s hitters have much more established track records against Buehrle, who they’ve seen so often over the past decade. Denard Span has fared the best, with a 1.037 OPS in 31 ABs. Delmon Young has also done well, with a .942 OPS in 30 ABs. Conversely, Joe Mauer (.647 OPS in 46 ABs) and Jason Kubel (.624 OPS in 14 ABs) have not fared as well.

White Sox-Twins Thursday Prediction: If the first two games go as I predicted them, and the remaining games this weekend go as I predicted, the White Sox will need this win to move to 4.0 games back. That is a seemingly insurmountable advantage with so few days left on the regular season calendar, but it at least keeps the White Sox in it.

And I do think Mark Buehrle wins this matchup. He may even do it without any help from the bullpen. Buehrle knows when he needs to put the White Sox on his back, and he usually does it, especially against Minnesota.

Also, there are troubling signs for Pavano. He’s only struck out six hitters in his last 23 innings, although all three are quality starts (1-2 record). Plus, his last memory of facing the White Sox is getting hit around like a pinata.

A desperate White Sox team will come through a big victory on this night, and hopefully the momentum can carry the White Sox to a white hot finish to the season. They’ll need it to have a chance.

White Sox win 7-1.

White Sox-Twins: The Rest of September

Based on my predictions, the White Sox will be 4.0 games out heading into next Friday. A bounce here or there and obviously that number could swing in either direction by a game or two. We’ll see what happens.

But assuming 4.0 games is the deficit, will White Sox fans have any reasonable hope of a late season surge? Here are the remaining schedules for the two squads.

White Sox:

• vs DET (3)
• @ OAK (3)
• @ LAA (3)
• vs BOS (4)
• vs CLE (3)

Twins:

• vs OAK (3)
• vs CLE (3)
• @ DET (3)
• @ KC (3)
• vs TOR (4)

Not really much of an advantage either way. Both teams have 10 games at home and 6 on the road. Both play Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit. Both get an AL East squad out of the race, and both go on the road to face teams that aren’t very good this year (KC and LAA).

Basically, the White Sox will need to catch fire and the Twins will need to collapse. Is it possible? Of course it is. Is it probable? Probably not.

But the joy of being a fan is knowing that as long as your team has a mathematical chance, something crazy could always happen. And we watch, and we hope, and we implore both our teams to rise to the occasion and the sports gods to smile down upon us with benevolence.

For the White Sox, being five games out with just 3+ weeks left is tantamount to hanging by a thread. But at least we’re hanging and have a reason to stay engaged during September. Now let’s just hope that we’re not hanging on in vain.

Last night’s comeback win over Kansas City was huge and certainly rekindled my excitement. And I like our chances at home against Minnesota next week. As Hawk would say, don’t stop now boys…

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* – AJ / JJ photo source: SBNation

* – Paulie/Buehrle photo source: RightWingHouse.com

* – Brian Duensing photo source: TwinkieTown.com

Unfortunately, that moment was the high point of the first two months of the 2010 baseball season.

The White Sox lost the next four games and have been fighting just to get their heads above water ever since. As things stand today, with the White Sox having completed their April and May slate of games, the South Siders are a pathetic 22-28, 8.0 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central.

Yet all hope is not lost for the 2010 season…at least not for me…at least not yet.

The White Sox undoubtedly need a monster June to position themselves to compete for a division title during the second half of the season, and there are plenty of legitimate statistical reasons to believe that such a month is possible.

Yes, somehow I see good things right around the corner for the Sox with one merciful flip of a calendar page that will happen after today. Let’s down them down.

1. The Schedule

The White Sox schedule was not awful over the first two months of the season, but it was difficult, with an opponents winning percentage of .512. April and May featured seven games against the Rays, five against the Twins, three against the Yankees, and eight against surprising Toronto. The Tigers, Rangers, and Angels were all also sprinkled in there as well.

Chicago also did not help matters by playing poorly against the easier teams on its schedule, most notably the damn Indians, who the Sox have given six of their 18 victories.

In June, however, the White Sox only see the “mighty” Indians three times and overall face a schedule with a current winning percentage of .469 (as of May 30th). Instead of the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays, the White Sox get the Cubs (6 times), Pirates (3), and Nationals (3). June also does include seemingly tougher sets with the Rangers, Braves, and Tigers, but overall it is much kinder.

All in all, just by schedule alone, one could reasonably expect the White Sox to play closer to .500 baseball during June. Sadly that would be an improvement, but hey, we’ll take any improvement we can get at this point.

2. The Speed

Much was made in the offseason of the White Sox getting faster and becoming less reliant on the long ball to score runs. This supposed return to the “small ball” principles of Ozzie’s first couple of years in Chicago did not seem to be paying dividends early in the season, but that started to turn around in May.

New leadoff hitter Juan Pierre, after a horrid start to the year in which he hit .193 in April and scored just 8 runs, rebounded in May to hit .286, steal 10 bases, and score 14 runs. While Pierre’s .339 OBP in May still left something to be desired, the improvement in production from the leadoff spot was imperative, as was the lineup’s ability to turn Pierre’s speed into runs.

Similarly, Alex Rios produced an across the board spike during May. The team’s clear MVP through the season’s first two months had a whopping 1.106 OPS during May while stealing 7 bases and scoring 22 runs.

It has been a long, long time since the White Sox enjoyed this much speed at the top of the order, and with the power of Paulie, CQ, and Andruw Jones so inconsistent, the ability to manufacture runs takes on increasing importance.

If the May turnaround at the top of the order continues into June, the much maligned White Sox offense should continue its improvement, led by the speedy Pierre and the speed/power combo of Rios that has him on pace for 33 HRs and 48 SBs.

3. The Splits

This is easily the most important of the three reasons, mainly because it is the most compelling and predictive of what we can expect from certain White Sox players in June based on their career averages.

Gavin Floyd

What led me to dig into this topic in the first place was wondering how far off Gavin Floyd’s current numbers were from where he usually sits at the end of May. I was considering dropping him in a fantasy league, but thought I should do a little more research first because he’s always seemed like a slow starter.

It’s a good thing I looked.

For his career, Floyd is 7-2 in 13 career June starts with a 3.12 ERA and a sizzling WHIP of 1.15. June is by far his best month of the season. Contrast that with his career April (8-8, 6.30 ERA) and May numbers (7-8, 5.47 ERA), and Floyd’s current 6.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP don’t seem all that unusual.

If the rest of Floyd’s 2010 season go according to history, he should win 10-12 games and sport an ERA right around 4.00. But the White Sox need wins now to ensure that the team does not get broken up and that there is meaningful post-All Star break baseball on the South Side; that means June is do-or-die.

No White Sox player is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd. He needs to keep that trend going.

Paul Konerko

Maybe I should have said that no White Sox pitcher is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd, because ol’ Paulie usually rakes pretty well during the season’s third month as well.

Consider these June/career splits for Paul Konerko:

• BA: .296 / .277
• OPS: .911 / .845
• AB per HR: 14.8 / 18.4

Paul’s career averages are already very solid. During the month of June, they become very good to almost great.

We all know how streaky Konerko can be; heck, just look at his April/May splits this year (1.197 OPS in April, .712 in May). For the White Sox to experience the kind of June turnaround they need to become contenders, Paul Konerko’s June production must fall in line with his career norms. If so, he an Alex Rios could form one of the most underrated and productive 3-4 combos in the league and drive in a lot of runs together.

Mark Buehrle

Gavin Floyd isn’t the only pitcher and Paul Konerko isn’t the only White Sox veteran who loves the month of June. Mark Buehrle also seems to enjoy June more than any other month as well.

Consider the following:

• Mark Buehrle has started 50 June games during his career, tied with April for the fewest of any month; yet Buehrle has won 27 games in June, more than any other month,  and lost only 11 games, the fewest of any month.
• Buehrle’s 3.38 career June ERA is bested only by his 3.30 career ERA in May. His 1.18 June WHIP is better than any other month.
• Buehrle strikes out more batters per nine innings and walks fewer during June than in any other month.

While Buehrle’s splits are not anywhere near as extreme as Floyd’s, June has always been his best month. With a 4.38 ERA right now in 2010, Mark needs another strong June to rebound and get closer to his career ERA of 3.82.

AJ Pierzynski

Continuing with our batter-after-pitcher trend, AJ Pierzynski is another White Sox vet who loves June. He’ll need a productive one to get his current .211 batting average closer to last year’s surprising .300 clip, which came during what was one of his best seasons at the dish.

For his career, AJ is a .283 hitter but a .312 hitter in June. Both numbers presage improvement for AJ moving forward. Veteran baseball players usually revert to their career norms and AJ has proven to be much, much better than a .211 hitter.

The good news for the White Sox is that AJ doesn’t just slap more singles during June. He hits with more power as well. AJ’s career .424 slugging percentage improves to .481 in June. His on base percentage also improves, up to .350 from its norm of .324 as AJ has a slightly higher walk rate in June.

Freddy Garcia

How about another pitcher? Sure!

Freddy Garcia may have a tenuous grip on the 5th starter’s slot with Dan Hudson nipping at his heels in the minors, but the White Sox may want to delay any decisions until after June. Freddy has a career ERA of 4.12 and is sporting a 5.26 ERA so far this season, but history suggests that Freddy will pitch well in June, sputter for the next two months after that, and then pitch his best in September.

For his career, Garcia has a 3.79 ERA in June and a 1.23 WHIP with a record of 24-11. The White Sox would certainly welcome numbers even 80-85% of that from Garcia at the back end of the rotation.

The other months for Garcia are littered with 4+ ERAs and 1.3+ WHIPs, but he gets serious again in September, as White Sox fans know from 2005, and has a 26-11 record, 3.31 ERA, and and 1.17 WHIP in 51 career September starts (the most of any month).

If Garcia can pick it up in June, along with Floyd and Buehrle, his September prowess just may have some significance.

Alexei Ramirez and Others

Those five guys, all veterans with established track records, show clear historical preference for the month of June. Another guy who loves June, though whose experience is not quite as extensive, is Alexei Ramirez.

The Cuban Missile has a solid .316/.362/.505 June line and has hit 10 career June homers, the most of any month. Alexei also has solid July and August numbers, but June is clearly his preferred month, and usually the point at which he snaps out of his early season doldrums to become a productive member of the offense.

With a .254 average and only 4 HRs so far this season, Alexei could use another June turnaround, and there is no reason to think he won’t do it again.

There are also some other guys on the White Sox roster who have done well historically in June, though perhaps not as markedly as the guys mentioned above:

• John Danks‘ 3.09 ERA in June is his second best (3.03, April)
• Bobby Jenks‘ 2.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are his second best (1.21 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, August)
• June is Mark Teahen’s most productive month other than September.

Conclusion

What does all this mean? Not a whole hell of a lot in reality. It really just means that frustrated White Sox fans like me, KVB, and you (if you’re a White Sox fan, which I assume you are if you’re read this far) should wait at least one more month before burying the 2010 Pale Hose.

And I know what you’re probably thinking. So what if the White Sox have a great June? If all of these guys peak in June, how will they have enough in July, August, and September to keep up with Minnesota and Detroit anyway?

That’s a great point, to which I say simply: I don’t care.

The season’s last three months will be irrelevant if the White Sox do not have a huge June. If they can position themselves to compete by the beginning of July, anything is possible. If they stay 5-6 games under .500 come the All Star Break, you can start breaking out the shovels and eulogies for the 2010 White Sox.

The White Sox would need to go 17-10 in June to creep back over .500. If they can do this, they’ll be 39-38 heading into July, and you’d have to think somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 games out of first place. That isn’t a great position to be in, and the odds of winning the AL Central would still be against the White Sox, but it’d sure be a hell of a lot better than six games under and 8.0 back. At least the team would have a shot.

So the question is, can a team currently playing .440 baseball play .630 baseball for an entire month to get its head above water? The easy answer is probably not; the hopeful answer, however, is (you can put it on the board…) yes.  Luckily for those hoping, there is at least some statistical evidence, as laid out in this post, to suggest that it’s possible.

And wouldn’t you know it? I saved the most compelling piece of evidence for last.

If you total up the career June won/loss records of the White Sox current starting rotation, which has woefully underperformed expectations so far in 2010, you get 72-40. That is a .643 clip, which is better than the aforementioned .630 clip I cited as getting the White Sox over .500.

So before you think going 17-10 in June is improbable, remember that all the White Sox pitchers need to do is perform to their career norms, and if Paulie, AJ, and Alexei can produce at their usual June clips, the pitchers will get more run support, wins easier to come by, and the White Sox can start to make their move.

With that said, all we can do now is sit back, relax, and strap it down…and hope that June 2010 is as White Sox-friendly as past Junes have been. If so, the White Sox can make it a three team race again and have a fighting chance at their second AL Central crown in three years.

I still believe it can happen, and the numbers suggest that you should too…at least for one more month.

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* – Alex Rios photo credit: Jerry Lai/US Presswire via ESPN.com

* – Mark Buehrle / Paul Konerko photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images via ESPN.com

* – Paul Konerko photo credit: Rumors and Rants

Every time we get a few games over .500, we can’t stand the prosperity and play like the Royals.

And then once the pendulum has swung back, and we’re under .500, and jackass bloggers like myself are acting like the sky is falling, we turn into the Yankees.

Case in point: the last four games.

After dropping what felt like 6,000 games in a row, and essentially falling out of the AL Central race, the White Sox have reeled off the following:

• Scoring four runs off of Twins closer Joe Nathan in the 9th inning to steal a win in the Metrodome.
• Shutting out the Cubs 5-0 in Wrigley Field in a makeup game from earlier this season. Perennial Cy Young candidate Carlos Torres pitched 7 shutout innings, striking out six Cubs.
• Dominating the Boston Red Sox at home, winning 12-1 on Friday and then 5-1 today powered by a Gavin Floyd gem for which the post game show was not canceled until two outs in the 6th inning.

So, in summation, the White Sox had fallen to 64-69 on Tuesday. Now here we sit on Saturday night with the White Sox one game under .500, 6.5 games out of first place, and playing like we all know this club is capable of playing.

Personally, I plan on enjoying it until we get to a few games over .500, and then the fear of an inevitable three- or four-game implosion will overshadow any optimism that builds up.  It’s just been one of those years.

If the White Sox finish anything other than 81-81 this year, I will be surprised. (And believe me, I hope to be surprised…positively.)

Here’s the thing, as bad as things have seemed this season, the White Sox are not out of it yet. If we just make up one game per week on the Tigers leading up to our final three game set with Detroit from September 25th-27th, we’ll be a home sweep away from being tied for the lead in the division.

A long shot? Sure. But for a veteran club that’s experienced in pressure, pennant-race baseball, it’s not completely outlandish. 

In other White Sox news, one thing that could make a late-season charge up the AL Central standings more difficult would be for Gordon Beckham to miss any time. The Sox sterling rookie left today’s game in the first inning with back tightness. Though it doesn’t sound serious, I’ve seen no updates on his status moving forward, and White Sox fans have been conditioned to be fearful about back tightness and our third baseman being mentioned in the same sentence.

Perhaps it was just time for a day off. Gordon has played in 81 straight games, counting today’s.

Also, a big congrats to Ozzie Guillen, who won his 500th game as a manager yesterday. Hopefully there are at least 500 more, and then 500 more after that, for Ozzie on the South Side.

Anyway, to close this post, I will just say that even though I’ve said previously that I have essentially given up hope on the White Sox making the playoffs this year, I’m starting to get pulled back in. Impressive four game streaks have a way of doing that.

If we can keep up the good play over the next four at home, and then defy historical trends by playing well out West on a six-game trip to LA and Seattle, I’ll really be excited.

Let’s go Sox. Championships are won in September, and there is still a whole lot of September left.

I was strongly in favor of the deal at the time, even going so far as to start an online petition in hopes of helping Peavy overcome his reluctance to come to the South Side by showing him an outpouring of a support from White Sox fans. (10 supporters! Whoo-hoo! I guess not everything goes viral online…)

Holding full no-trade rights, however, Peavy was in possession of all the cards and in the end he decided to nix the deal to stay in San Diego. I, along with many other White Sox fans, was disappointed. Hanging onto Aaron Poreda was certainly a silver lining, but man was the thought of a Peavy-Buehrle lefty-righty combo atop the rotation enticing.

Who would have thought that, in retrospect, Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade would look more and more like a positive for the White Sox with each passing week.

First, there is Peavy himself. He has made only four starts since the announcement of the deal-in-principle and is currently on the DL with a strained tendon in his right ankle. And the four starts he made were not exactly stellar (perhaps because of the injury though, to be fair). Only two were quality starts and his ERA rose from 3.48 to 3.97.

Plus, a deeper look at Peavy’s career numbers perhaps shows one of the main reasons why he is so reluctant to leave San Diego, and why clowns like myself were perhaps a little too anxious to get him into the summer bandbox that is U.S. Cellular Field. Look at Peavy’s home/road splits this season:

• Home: 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .217 BAA, 62:17 K/BB
• Road: 2-2, 4.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .246 BAA, 30:11 K/BB

And for his career:

• Home: 45-31, 2.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .219 BAA, 779:212 K/BB
• Road: 47-37, 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .246 BAA, 569:223 K/BB

So this year’s numbers are to be expected based on his track record. And it’s not like I and others excited about the possibility of a Peavy trade didn’t realize this, but I know that I didn’t really consider it with the weight that I probably should have.

PetcoPark, as has been well documented, is a severe pitcher’s park. So I would assume that most San Diego pitchers have similar splits. Thus, I would expect stats like BAA and HRs against to be up on the road. What concerns me looking deeper at the stats is the vastly different K rate. For his career, Peavy’s K/BB ratio is 3.67:1 at home but drops to 2.55:1 on the road. I realize different ballparks dictate pitching guys differently and can have other subtle effects, but Peavy’s numbers specifically seem like a pretty jarring difference for a stat that takes into account what happens when the ball is not in play and is thus not affected by park dimensions or climate factors that affect ball flight.

Maybe it’s a confidence thing, maybe it’s a certain oneness with his home mound, maybe it’s just a comfort level thing of strapping on his stirrups in the home locker room. But for whatever reason, Jake Peavy is dominant at home and much more ordinary on the road. You can’t really consider his home stats when considering what kind of impact Peavy might have made in Chicago. So maybe this deal wasn’t the slam dunk that I thought it was at the time.

To be fair to myself, part of the reason for my excitement was desperation. On May 21st, the White Sox were 17-22 and our non-Buehrle pitchers had not been good or capable of any semblance of consistency. In the six weeks since then, we’ve gone 27-18 and moved to two games within first place Detroit. For a team starved for solid pitching at the time, I thought Peavy would be a great shot in the arm. It turns out that we got a great shot in the arm, it was just an internal one. Look at the numbers:

• John Danks on May 21st: 4.60 ERA | John Danks now: 3.76 ERA
• Gavin Floyd on May 21st: 7.71 ERA | Gavin Floyd now: 4.33 ERA
• Jose Conreras on May 21st: 8.19 ERA | Jose Contreras now: 4.54 ERA

Even with their terrible early season numbers still part of the whole, all three of our 2-3-4 starters have better cumulative ERAs than what Peavy has put up in starts outside of San Diego this season. And Clayton Richard’s ERA on the season is 4.75, which is only slightly worse than what Peavy has done on the road this year.

I’m not saying that Danks, Floyd, Contreras, and Richard are individually better than Jake Peavy. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball for the last half decade. But the resurgence of our pitching staff over the last six weeks has certainly made me far, far less regrettable about the trade not going through. And looking at Peavy’s inability to dominate away from home certainly makes me question just how disappointed we might have been had he come to the South Side in a deal for two of our top pitching prospects and threw a 3.9+ ERA up there over the balance of the season.

In the end, I think the Peavy to Chicago deal-that-almost-was ended up working out in the best interests of each party involved (except for the Padres of course, who desperately wanted to get rid of his contract and are now stuck because of his injury). Jake Peavy gets to stay in San Diego and pitch where he is most comfortable once he gets healthy, and the White Sox have been able to enjoy the fruits of the Danks/Floyd combo regaining their 2008 rhythm and Jose “The Phoenix” Contreras rediscovering his supreme badassness. Plus, we still have Aaron Poreda, who has now become a valuable member of one of the league’s best bullpens.

Kudos to Ken Williams for being proactive and putting the White Sox in a position to make a big splash in filling what, at the time, was a pretty glaring area of need. In retrospect though, Jake Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade was probably a blessing in disguise for the Good Guys.

* – John Danks/Gavin Floyd photo credit: AP via USA Today

The White Sox only other sweep of the season came at the end of May when the Good Guys swept three on the road against the Kansas City Royals. And as KVB and I lament to eachother all of the time, the White Sox never seem to complete sweeps. It always seems like any time we take the first two or three games of a series there is a letdown in the final game. Either the regular lineup sleepwalks through the game, we get a terrible pitching performance, or Ozzie throws out one of his crazy lineups where Brian Anderson is hitting cleanup.

I’m exaggerating…but not by much.

Not yesterday though. Last night, the White Sox continued playing the solid brand of baseball that has propelled them to five straight wins and 12 wins in their last 17 games. Over that same time span, a fan base — and maybe even a team and an entire organization — has been reborn into one that expects, rather than hopes, to be playing baseball in October.

At least that’s how I feel. And hopefully the rest of the South Side is with me. (And if you’re not, I have a few words from Steve Perry I’d like to share with you. That’s right, I went there.)

Truthfully, what has transpired over the last couple of weeks has renewed my faith that the White Sox will ultimately come out on top in a very competitive AL Central. I have to admit that through the ups and downs of this season it has been hard to maintain that faith. Case in point: Ozzie saying that we are in trouble if we have to bring up Gordon Beckham…and then shortly thereafter Beckham gets brought up.

And yes, I realize that the majority of the recent success has come against the inferior National League (and then the even more inferior Indians), so I will grant you that the White Sox haven’t exactly been mowing down the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays; but, the Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Reds are all at least decent teams (especially LA, with our without Manny) so I don’t think you can simply chalk up the White Sox success to playing subpar competition.

No, there are many reasons why the White Sox are winning and the majority of them have to do with the players themselves and the better brand of baseball they are playing.

Will they make the playoffs? I’m not going to make any proclamations and jinx them. (Full disclosure: in preparation for this post I researched Jim Fassel’s infamous playoff guarantee when he was coaching the Giants and had planned on altering it for purposes of my own guarantee here. Then I thought the better of it.) But what seemed like a rather ridiculous conversation a few weeks ago is starting to look more and more realistic.

So in honor of the White Sox 40th victory of the season, and because it is my lucky number (in honor of my favorite basketball player of all-time), here are 40 reasons, in no particular order, why the White Sox have a great shot to win the AL Central and make a return trip to the playoffs in 2009.

1 — Ozzie Guillen. The SI players poll may suggest that other players don’t want to play for him, but his own players do. And they have proven it every year outside of that awful and anomalous 2007. As long as Ozzie is the skipper, I’ll always believe in the White Sox. Paws up.

2 — We actually have a productive 1-2 punch at the top of the order! Most White Sox fans had forgotten what that feels like. 2005 hero Scotty Pods and Sexy Alexei have reminded us over the last 50 or so games. If Podsednik can come close to maintaining his .368 OBP, and if Alexei can continue to put his early season woes behind him (and improve upon his .398 SLG), the White Sox will have the run production and speed they need at the top of the lineup.

3 — We get THE Carlos Quentin back around the All Star Break. Remember him? Mr. Porcelain, but also the best player in the American League through the end of August last year? The White Sox offense has fortuitously been able to find its footing over the last month without him, but no one has forgotten how important Quentin is to the overall makeup of our team. Assuming Quentin can even be 80% of his normal self throughout the rest of the season, he will provide a huge presence that has been sorely lacking.

4 — Jose F*****g Contreras. I love this guy. He’s like a phoenix. Every time you think he’s finished he rises again to prove why he was such a hot commodity upon defecting here from Cuba. And there are few guys that I trust more in big spots than Contreras. He was AWFUL to start the year, but since heading down to the minors he has found his touch again and has given up only 9 runs over five starts that have covered a little over 37 innings.

5 — Mark Buehrle is Mark Buehrle. He’s not always pretty, and he’ll get knocked around every now and then, but the numbers are always there. This year he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s an ace. You have to have one to win division titles, and I’ll just say it: you’re wrong if you don’t think Mark Buehrle is an ace.

6 – Gavid Floyd has become the good Gavin again. Gavin’s season has followed an arc similar to Contreras’. He struggled mightily out of the gate, but look at his game log since May 22. Floyd has not gone less that six innings or given up more than three runs in any start. That’s eight quality starts in a row. Even more exciting is the fact that he hasn’t walked more than three batters in any of those starts either. This guy was the #4 overall pick in 2001 by the Phillies for a reason. We’ve seen why over the past 6 weeks.

7 – John Danks has become the good Danks again. Danks is another pitcher who had an up and down first 6 weeks of the season, but has turned it around. And he’s saved his best outings of the season for his two most important starts thus far: his two outings against the Cubs. Danks gave up one run over 14 innings against the Cubs. Yes, their offense sucks, but Danks has pitched four straight quality starts, going at least seven innings in all four, and the guy proved last year that he’s clutch.

8 – Is the quartet of Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Jose Contreras reminding anyone over the last month or so of another White Sox pitching staff of recent vintage? Eating innings, throwing quality starts almost every time out, and stepping up big in key spots…sounds a lot like the 2005 staff to me. Buehrle and Contreras are the holdovers, but Floyd and Danks have been every bit as good as Garland and Garcia. And remember, neither El Duque or Brandon McCarthy was that great in the fifth spot during the regular season that year. If the pitching continues on its current trend, and we know they are capable, this is a World Series-quality staff.

9 – Gordon Beckham is here and he’s every bit as good as advertised. Yeah, the kid struggled out of the gate, but look at his last seven games: 12-21 with a HR and 6 RBI. We all love Josh Fields and wish he had taken ahold of the hot corner when he had his chance, but Beckham is the future. And he is proving that he just may be the present as well.

10 – Did I mention Carlos Quentin is coming back at the All Star Break?

11 – Aaron Poreda is with the big club now and has not given up a run in his first five innings of work out of the bullpen. He has six Ks and only one BB and has given up only four hits. The Rays received a jolt from their phemon pitcher David Price last year. Could Poreda fill a similar role for the White Sox? He’s certainly had an auspicious beginning.

12 – Bobby Jenks is still one of the best closers in the game, and is as battle tested as anyone not named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The big man has 18 saves on the season and has 28 Ks in 28 innings this year, a drastic improvement upon his sharply declining K rate from last year. He may not have the same gas he had back in 2005, but he is a much better pitcher now. And he’s already proven his stones on the biggest stage.

13 – Still, there are rumors that the White Sox might trade Bobby Jenks before the trade deadline. I do not want to this happen, nor do I think it will now that we’ve reemerged as a legitimate contender. Closers with Bobby’s stuff, talent, moxie, and proven experience do not grow on trees; and it’s rare to see a team get far in October without one. Regardless, on the off chance that we do trade Jenks, we’ve got a great bullpen filled with guys I would have confidence in to take over the role. (But Kenny…if you’re listening…don’t trade Bobby!)

14 – Matt Thornton has had a few rougher outings of late, but is still holding opponents to a .214 average and has struck out 39 batters in 31.2 innings.

15 – Octavio Dotel is walking way too many guys (21 in 30.2 innings) but has 39 strikeouts of his own through 30.2 innings and has successful closing experience in his past.

16 – D.J. Carrasco has come into his own as a very valuable asset in the bullpen. He’s logged 48.2 innings in 26 games and has an ERA under 3.00. He has given up seven runs over his last six outings though, so he needs to get himself back on track. But, as a former starter, he has the arm strength to be a bullpen savior on days when we need one.

17 – Scott Linebrink has not been great this year, but still has an ERA of 2.17 and averages more than a K per inning. He is not closer material — Thornton or Dotel would pick up that slack if Jenks is moved — but he remains a solid option as a setup man.

18 – Regardless of whether or not Kenny trades Bobby (don’t do it!!!), each of those four guys plus Poreda gives the White Sox an outstanding bullpen that I’d put up against any in the league. Still, I think Kenny will hang onto a proven closing commodity like Jenks, so each of the bullpen guys will get to stay in the roles they have been successful in and form one of the most unsung units in all of baseball.

19 – Ken Williams. He has to be listed as a reason why the White Sox can (and will!) make the playoffs. As White Sox fans we may not agree with all of his moves, but we have to give him this: he never stops being proactive to improve our chances. And I think his gameplan entering this season was brilliant. He put together a vet-laden team with a few new additions that, if everything fell right, had a good chance to make the playoffs. But he also has been restocking the farm system to the point where we can all feel pretty secure that when the Buehrle-Konerko-Dye era ends, the White Sox will be okay.

20 – Let’s get back to the offense, because its resurgence is one of the main reasons why the White Sox have started playing better baseball. And the most important cog in the White Sox offensive machine is still Jermaine Dye. As usual, Jermaine is quietly putting up solid numbers (.294, 18 HR, 48 RBI) and providing a steadying and consistent presence in the middle of the lineup. This guy was a World Series MVP in 2005 and was damn close to being the league MVP in 2006. He’s not quite the same player now — age will do that to you — but he is still good enough to be the second best hitter on a team that makes a deep playoff run.

21 – Carlos Quentin, of course, will hopefully resume his role as the best hitter on the team when he returns. And did I mention that he’s coming back around the All Star Break? My apologies if I didn’t. Quentin is coming back around the All Star Break.

22 – Paul Konerko, like Jermaine Dye, is having a solid season in the heart of the order (.290, 13 HR, 49 RBI). Like Dye, Konerko is not as ferocious as he once was, but is still good enough. And like Dye, Konerko has proven himself in clutch situations. I know that the combo of Dye and Konerko may not be all that sexy or exciting, but there is something to be said for battle-tested veterans who are team leaders and the essence of the term “professional hitters.” Paulie is still getting the job done both at the plate and in the field, as is JD.

23 – Chris Getz sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all of the hullabaloo about Gordon Beckham, but Getz is providing something that our lineup has sorely lacked over the last couple of years: speed. He, Scotty Pods, and Alexei all have 11 or more stolen bases. Finally the White Sox have some people who can put a little pressure on other teams with the running game.

24 – AJ Pierzynski will never wow you with his stats, and he’ll do things that make you scratch your head sometimes (like his putrid ground out on the first pitch with the bases loaded at the end of one of our games last week), but he’s scrappy and he’s a winner. AJ comes through in the clutch more than often than not, and is underrated behind the plate (except for his arm, which can’t really be rated low enough). You need a good catcher to win, and the White Sox have one in AJ.

25 – The White Sox also seem to have found a backup catcher. Ramon Castro has blasted two home runs in 21 ABs since joining the team a couple weeks ago and is a guy who has always had monstrous power. Playing half of his games at The Cell with the weather warming up may be just the opportunity he needs to show that he can be a 25-30 HR guy someday. We’ll gladly take production anywhere close to that from our backup.

(BTW…all stats for the last six or seven of these have been taken from the White Sox hompage.)

26 – A couple of curses ended last year and we don’t have to worry about them anymore. The Jim Thome Curse and The Curse of the Douche Bag.

27 – Detroit has only three starters worth a crap (Verlander, E. Jackson, Porcello) and one of them is a 20-year old rookie (Porcello). Yes, Porcello has been very good this year, but how is his arm going to be holding up in September? He supposedly has a great makeup, but he’s never been through the pressure of a pennant race. If the Tigers cannot some more starting pitching, they are going to fall back even further to the pack.

28 – Curtis Granderson (.339 OBP, 18 HR, 13 SB) and Miguel Cabrera (.331 BA, 16 HR, 47 RBI) are really good, and Brandon Inge has certainly rebounded this year (18 HR, 52 RBI) from his subpar 2008, but what do the Tigers have after that? Magglio is on the sharp downside of his career and just is not supplying power anymore. Look at the other names that have chewed up the most ABs for Detroit this season: Placido Polanco, Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, Josh Anderson. Call me crazy, but I’ll take our offense for the rest of the season…especially once Quentin gets back.

29 – By the way, Quentin is coming back at The All Star Break.

30 – Minnesota is the Chicago’s other main competitor in the AL Central, and they have as many holes as Detroit. I do think that Minnesota’s pitching is better than what the numbers show (i.e. Baker’s 4.99 ERA and Slowey’s 4.41 ERA despite better peripherals) but this is a team that needed Francisco Liriano to be be an ace. Detroit has its ace in Justin Verlander and we have ours in Mark Buehrle. Who is it for the Twins? Baker and Slowey and very good #2-#3 starters, but the Twins do not have a guy who has proven he can take the ball and throw a gem in a big spot when the team needs it. Argue if you wish Twinkie fans, but that’s how I see it.

31 – Offensively, Minnesota has been surprisingly balanced this season. Look at the their team stats and tell me you aren’t surprised to see five guys with double-digit homers on the 2nd of July. In addition to the usual suspects (Mauer and Morneau), Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and (*sob*) Joe Crede all have 11 or more dingers. Add in the speed of Denard Span and Carlos Gomez and the Twins have a more dynamic offense than usual that has been able to somewhat compensate for its struggling pitching. However, this is still a team that goes how Mauer and Morneau go, and you may be surprised to learn that both hit below their career averages against the White Sox. In 331 career ABs against Chicago, Morneau (a .284 lifetime hitter) hits only .275. He has a career OPS of .858 that drops to .840 when playing against Chicago. (For the record, his HR rate is almost identical.) As for Mauer, Mr. .400 blah blah blah, he is a .324 career hitter with an OPS of .881. Against the White Sox that drops to .313 and .858. Are Mauer and Morneau terrible against Chicago? No. Have they come up big at certain points against the White Sox in the past? Yes. But they sure as hell didn’t against John Danks in last year’s one-game playoff, and anytime you make those two hit worse than normal you have a great chance to beat Minnesota.

32 – Detroit and Chicago are big-market teams that will make moves at the deadline to improve their chances this year. Minnesota does not have the same luxury. That knocks the Twins down at least a peg in comparison to the Tigers and White Sox.

33 – Take a look at a quick comparison between the aces of the White Sox and the Tigers. In 15 career starts against Chicago, Justin Verlander is 3-9 with a 5.44 ERA. In 27 career starts against Detroit, Mark Buehrle is 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. And, for the record, Buehrle is 23-13 lifetime against the Twins. So Peter Gammons and all of the other baseball analysts can go into the bathroom with a moist towelette and a mental image of Verlander’s incredible “stuff”, but the fact of the matter is that he doesn’t get the job done against his division rival. The underrated Buehrle, of course, does. So, in review: Minnesota has no ace, the Tigers do but he sucks against Chicago, and the White Sox ace (who many people erroneously don’t consider to be an ace) dominates the two best teams in his division. HUGE advantage White Sox.

34 – The White Sox schedule in the second half of September sets up beautifully for a late charge to pull away from the pack. From September 21-27 the White Sox play the Twins and Tigers three times each, all of which are in Chicago. These six games are sandwiched between three at home against Kansas City and then three on the road at Cleveland to end the season. And there is actually a good chance Cleveland will have just called off the season by then, giving the White Sox a three-game sweep by forfeit.

35 – Since the White Sox have no more games against the Rangers, I most likely will not be able to see them play live for the rest of the regular season. This is good because I think the White Sox have a .200 winning percentage in games I’ve attended over the years. When KVB and I go together it’s even worse than that. (Be thankful that we never moved to Chicago and got season tickets.) If the Sox make the playoffs, however, and especially if they go deep, I may not be able to stay away. My apologies in advance.

36 – I know, I know…I’ve left someone out who deserves mention: Jim Thome. Now that the White Sox are back playing in AL parks, Thome has returned to the lineup. He is by no means the masher he was in Cleveland or Philly, but the guy is still a productive hitter (.402 OBP, 13 HR, 42 RBI) and a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. It took me a while, but I’ve fully embraced him as a true Good Guy and he is another one of our battle-tested veterans who heats up with the weather.

37 – Time to address the elephant in the room: defense. This is the White Sox biggest weakness. Currently, there are only five teams in baseball with more fielding errors than the White Sox. And no one has had worse defense at the hot corner than Chicago (17 errors, .922 fielding percentage). With Joe Crede gone and the combo of Josh Fields-Gordon Beckham over there, that is to be expected. But on the bright side, this has no place to go but up. And considering that Gordon Beckham has only been playing third base for about a month, his struggles were anticipated. Most seem to think that he is a good enough athlete to become very good defensively at third. As the season goes along, I think we’ll see his production in the field improve.

38 – Another area on defense where the White Sox have struggled is at shortstop, where Alexei Ramirez recently drew the ire of Ozzie Guillen for lackluster and unfocused play. I definitely see this improving. Alexei has all of the tools to be not just a good shortstop, but a great one. And there is no way Ozzie will allow that position to be a consistent weakness.

39 – Getting back to pitching because I forgot someone: Clayton Richard. On the season he is 3-1 with a 4.48 ERA in 22 games (10 starts). Immediately after stepping into the rotation when Bartolo Colon went on the DL, Clayton strung together three straight excellent starts. I then picked him up on my fantasy team and he hasn’t thrown a quality start since. White Sox fans will be happy to know that I’ve dropped him again, which means that he will likely turn things back around. All kidding aside, Richard is nothing more than a 5th starter right now, but he is adequate. And when Colon comes back to the rotation (if he even does), he gives the White Sox a veteran presence who is still capable of putting up halfway decent numbers. The point is that while the White Sox don’t have a world beater in the 5th slot of the rotation, the guys they are throwing out there aren’t horrible. And with the offense picking things up, we can win with Richard or Colon on the bump. And who knows, maybe Poreda steps in there at some point and provides Porcello-like production. Either way, this slot will not keep up from winning the Central.

40 – And finally, reason #40 why the White Sox can, should, and I think will win the AL Central: the return of Carlos Quentin. Am I putting a lot on his shoulders? Yes. Is there a chance he comes back and gets injured again? Yes. But is his presence in the lineup necessary for this team long-term in 2009? I believe it absolutely is. The White Sox are proving they can without TCQ, but when you get one of the best players in the AL back after an extended absence it cannot be anything but a boon to your chances. And Carlos will have the entire second half of the season to get his timing back. Perhaps this year will be a reverse of last year in that Quentin will save his best for September in 2009. We missed him in September last year, but still found a way to claw our way to a playoff berth. With Quentin in September this year, I think the White Sox have a good chance of heading into the playoffs with momentum and their best all-around player hitting on all cylinders.

Say what you will about the 40 reasons listed above, but one thing is certain: those who stuck a fork in the White Sox a few weeks back did so prematurely. For some reason, people always seem to underestimate the managerial and leadership ability of Ozzie Guillen and the heart, character, and talent in the White Sox clubhouse. The good thing is that the only people who matter (Kenny, Ozzie, and the team) never doubted. Over the last three weeks we have seen why, and White Sox fans have every reason to believe that a return trip to the playoffs is not only possible but, at least in my opinion, very probable.

So sit back, relax, and strap it down, and let’s all enjoy what should be a great three-team race for the 2009 AL Central crown…one that will be made all the more exciting when the White Sox end up repeating as champions.

* – Scott Podsednik photo credit: MouthPieceSports.com

Up 5-1 heading in the 8th inning, I was already planning my celebratory post. Then “the best bullpen in baseball” (what idiot said that?) took the ball from Gavin Floyd and it was all downhill from there.

The Cubs scored 4 in the 8th, all unearned, after an error to leadoff the inning by Chris Getz proved costly. Scott Linebrink got the next two Cubs hitters out, but with two gone, Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto went back-to-back to tie it up.

Then, the Cubs tallied another run in the 9th off Matt Thornton on a duck snort by Alfonso Soriano to secure a 6-5 victory and set off a thoroughly annoying rendition some stupid song called “Go Cubs Go” or something like that. Those of us forced to watch the game on WGN were subjected the song and the crowd shots of “the best fans in the world.” Yes, the same fans who were so awesome last year when the Cubs played the Dodgers in the NLDS.

But back to the point: this a game the White Sox have to win if they have serious designs on challenging in the AL Central. Gavin Floyd pitches great, on the heels of a great start by John Danks yesterday, giving up only 1 run and 4 hits through 7 innings. The offense had another solid day manufacturing some runs, with Gordon Beckham having his best day at the plate since being called up (2-2, R, RBI, BB). And Alexei continued being a Cubs killer with an early home run.

But it was all for naught, and Ozzie Guillen has only one group to be making that choke face to: his own clubhouse.

Bad loss White Sox. Now let’s forget about it and take at least two in Cincinnati.

According to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune the deal will pay Floyd $750,000 in 2009, $2.75 million in 2010, $5 million in 2001, and $7 million in 2012, with the White Sox holding a $9.5 million option for 2013.

Said Floyd:

“I’m about to get married, and I have a family to look forward to,” said Floyd, who won 17 games last season. “I feel like I made the right decision with my family and my fiance and my agent. We were just trying to figure out what we wanted to do.”

This leaves John Danks and Bobby Jenks as the other high profile, high priority contract negotiations on the docket. According to White Sox GM Ken Williams, “We’re going to do this in stages.”

I am a big fan of the Gavin Floyd deal for a number of reasons.

1. We’ve seen the type of money that teams like the Yankees throw out on pitching every year, and the infamously outlandish contracts that have been signed by the likes of Barry Zito and Mike Hampton. Compared to these deals, Floyd is an absolute bargain and will help the White Sox maintain flexibility when it comes to Danks, Jenks, and other contracts that must be negotiated in the future.
2. The deal is a win-win on both sides. The White Sox lock up one of their top 3 starters for the next four years, with an option for a fifth if Floyd stays healthy and continues to produce like he did last year. For Floyd, he gets a nice chunk of guaranteed change through his 30th birthday, at which point he will still be young enough to sign another significant contract if he is healthy and staying on top of his game.
3. Gavin Floyd probably is not going to compete for Cy Young awards, and he can be hit or miss, but I think he is a guy that can consistently log 200 innings with an ERA around 4.00, and win 12-15 games a year. If he can do that, he is easily worth the money the White Sox have committed to him. If for some reason he implodes and becomes Bad Gavin more often than he is Good Gavin, the White Sox have not sunk so much money into him that it will tie their hands moving forward.

All in all, a good deal on both sides and it ensures that Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd are anchoring the White Sox pitching staff through at least the next three years. Hopefully we can get a similar commitment from John Danks and keep the most underrated 1-2-3 in baseball intact for the foreseeable future.

The Chicago White Sox in 2009 are certainly no exception.

Heading into Spring Training, one of the up-and-coming candidates being promoted as a possibility to fill the #5 slot for the White Sox behind their healthy and durable triumverate of Mark Buehrle-Gavin Floyd-John Danks was Aaron Poreda.

Now that Poreda has made his first Spring Training appearance, let’s find out who this kid is and assess his chances to break Spring Training in the rotation with the White Sox.

Aaron Poreda Bio and Scouting Report

Aaron Poreda will be 22 years old on Opening Day 2009 and is a 6’6, 240 pound lefty from Walnut Creek, California. He was selected by the White Sox in the 1st round (25th pick) of the 2007 draft and signed by White Sox scout Adam Virchis. Since being drafted, Poreda has certainly made a name for himself and developed a reputation as a major piece of the White Sox future.

After a successful college career at the University San Francisco, during which Poreda posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his three seasons, Poreda pitched in 46.1 innings of rookie ball at the age of 20. In those 46.1 innings, Poreda went 4-0, had a 1.17 ERA, and a K/9 ratio of 9.3, while walking only 10 batters. His WHIP was a sterling 0.84.

Certainly a very auspicious beginning.

In 2008, Poreda’s first and only full season in the minor leagues, he shuffled between high-A ball and AA Birmingham. At Winston-Salem, Poreda pitched 73.1 innings and amassed a 3.31 ERA and a 5-5 record. His K rate dropped to only 5.6 per 9 innings and his WHIP rose to a still solid 1.16. In AA Birmingham, Poreda pitched 87.2 innings, had an ERA of 2.98, a K/9 rate of 7.4, and a WHIP of 1.17.

So for his brief minor league career thus far, Aaron Poreda is 12-9 with a 2.69 ERA in 207.1 innings, with a K/9 rate of 7.2 and a WHIP of 1.10. All very good numbers, and certainly predictors of future success.

Additionally, Poreda was rated the #1 prospect in the White Sox entire system in 2008 by Baseball America. In the 2009 Baseball America Top Prospects list, Poreda is third for the White Sox, behind 2008 #1 draft pick SS Gordon Beckham and Cuban signee 3B Dayan Viciedo, but is still listed as the #63 prospect overall.

According to MinorLeagueBaseball.com, Aaron Poreda has a plus-plus fastball that sits comfortably at 95-96 mph and sinks and runs, while still catching the plate for strikes. They list his slider and changeup as fair, but in need of plenty of work. (It looks like this report is from 2007, so perhaps his other pitches have improved since then to better complement his obviously wicked fastball).

In his first outing this spring, Poreda started off slowly by giving up a homerun and a single to the first two batters (Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson), but then recovered to retire the next six batters. Most importantly, he threw first pitch strikes to 7 out of the 8 batters he faced.

From a Mark Gonzalez report at the Tribune’s website about the first 2009 appearance by Aaron Poreda:

“I was able to force contact, and sometimes when you force contact you’ve got to tip your hat because [Furcal] hit the ball pretty far,” Poreda said. “After that I recuperated and kept throwing strikes.

“I could have thrown a few better sliders, a changeup, but all in all I was happy with the outing. I didn’t give in, stayed strong and ended on a positive note.”

Poreda’s fastball was clocked in the 91-93 m.p.h. range. He struck out two and didn’t walk a batter, coming back from a 3-0 count to retire one hitter.

So apparently the slider and changeup are still a work in progress. The other interesting note in the 2007 scouting report mentioned above is that Poreda is “new to being good. Players who come out of nowhere like he has (with the jump in velocity, especially) have to get used to being dominant. Once he grows accustomed to that, his poise should improve by leaps and bounds.”

It will be interesting to watch how Poreda fares the rest of this spring. Based on his history and scouting report, it sounds like another year in the minor leagues could help Poreda develop his secondary pitches and confidence. I am sure that if the White Sox have their druthers, this is exactly what will happen.

But there is a reason that people have been talking about Poreda as a potential answer to the questions the White Sox have at the back end of their rotation. And the reason is that despite the improvements Poreda still needs to make, he is already a very good pitcher; and the White Sox need someone to fill Javier Vazquez’s slot in the rotation and someone else to fill in until Jose Contreras is ready to go.

So, will Aaron Poreda break camp in the White Sox rotation?

It does not appear likely — and the reasons why have nothing to do with Poreda not being capable, and much more to do with some great early news the White Sox have received about their other rotation options.

Chicago White Sox 2009 Pitching Rotation

First off there is Jose Contreras, who was originally expected back sometime around the All-Star break after surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles ended his 2008 season prematurely. Now there is talk that Contreras could be ready for Opening Day. He made a splash by reporting to camp lighter and in great shape, and Ozzie Guillen has already said that as soon as Contreras is healthy and ready go, he is taking the ball every fifth day.

Another major question mark heading into camp was veteran pitching behemoth Bartolo Colon, the 5’11, 245-pound former Cy Young winner (and former White Sox pitcher, in 2003) signed by the White Sox this offseason. Ozzie Guillen has already said that he feels confident defending the 2008 AL Central crown with Contreras and Colon manning the back end of the rotation. The question, of course, will be health and availability.

According to Chisox.com, both Colon and Contreras are scheduled to throw three days next week, with two additional side sessions scheduled for the week after. They are then both tentatively scheduled to pitch an inning in a game if all goes well. White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper knows what Colon can bring to the rotation:

“I’ll tell you what we are talking about,” Cooper said. “This is the second half of his career, and Bartolo is now trying to prove he can go from a pure power guy to a guy who still can pitch with real solid stuff.

“Remember, there’s nothing he can’t do with a baseball. He can cut it, slice it and dice it. He’s like Popeil’s pocket pitcher. He can do it all. He might be able to even core an apple.

“If he gets healthy, then you got a chance to win ballgames on that fourth or fifth day. He’s a proven guy, and we all know he knows how to pitch. He certainly has the heart and the [guts].”

Basically, if Contreras and Colon are ready to go on Opening Day, they will be in the rotation. If one of them is not ready, it appears that Clayton Richard could be one of the first in line for the open slot. Richard gained valuable experience filling in for Contreras last season, starting 8 games. He certainly did not set the world on fire, going 2-5 with a 6.04 ERA, but he is 25 and more experienced than the other options. Richard will assume a prominent spot in the White Sox bullpen as a long reliever whenever both Contreras and Colon are ready, so the Sox may be willing to give him the first crack at any open rotation slots.

And another name to keep an eye on is Jeff Marquez, acquired in the offseason from the Yankees in the Nick Swisher trade. Marquez is 24, and has over 100 innings more experience than Poreda in the minors. He has a sinker than has drawn comparisons to former White Sox pitcher Jon Garland, and his arsenal also includes a changeup, curve, and slider. So while he may not have the potential of Poreda, he could be more “Major League ready” right now.

In his first spring outing, Marquez pitched two hitless innings against the Cubs and impressed Ozzie Guillen, according to a report by Scott Merkin:

“He threw the ball pretty good, but I don’t think he was sharp enough for the first time,” said White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen of Marquez. “But Marquez really impressed me. I was happy with what I saw.”

So in reality, it is quite possible that Aaron Poreda is currently 8th in line for starts with the White Sox in 2009. He is undoubtedly projected to be in the White Sox rotation in 2010, but for the purposes of this post we are just looking at 2009. My best guess is that Aaron Poreda begins the year in AAA, and the best case scenario for the White Sox is that he stays there all year because Contreras and Colon are healthy and effective.

But I have this funny feeling that Aaron Poreda is going to play an important role for the 2009 White Sox, perhaps not early on but maybe later in the year. Just like last season when Contreras went down, you can never predict injuries. And the truth is, the White Sox rotation has been one of the most durable rotations in baseball since 2005. Look at the numbers of total starts made by the top 5 White Sox pitchers each of the last four years:

• 2005: 154 out of 162
• 2006: 161 out of 162
• 2007: 152 out of 162
• 2008: 153 out of 162

Over four years, the pitchers in the White Sox rotation have missed only 28 starts. That is a phenomenal level of durability, and I remember hearing a stat somewhere that it was the best in baseball over that time period.

But will it continue in 2009? We know how durable Mark Buehrle has been, and there is no reason not to pencil him in for 30+ starts this season. John Danks started at least 21 games in each of his last three seasons in the minors and has been durable as a major leaguer. Gavin Floyd has also shown tremendous durability during his professional career. And last season was the only full season of Jose Contreras’ major league career that has has started less than 30 games.

So as usual, assuming Contreras is healthy and ready for the long haul, the White Sox top 4 of the rotation appears locked in stone for the entire season.

Bartolo Colon, however, is another story. He started 7 games last year, 18 in 2007, and 10 in 2006. Before that, he started at least 30 games for 8 straight seasons. But how many innings can Colon pitch this season, when the most he has pitched in any season since 2005 is 99 1/3? All White Sox fans are hoping that Bartolo Colon can regain his Cy Young form of 2005, but 150-160 innings out of Colon may be about the maximum we can realistically expect.

If that is the case, someone will have to pick up some of the slack. And with a few more months of seasoning, it very well could be Aaron Poreda that steps up to do it.

While Clayton Richard and Jeff Marquez have more experience, a more developed overall repertoire of pitches, and perhaps even more confidence and moxie on the mound, Poreda clearly has the best fastball and the most overall talent. If Poreda can add some consistency to his secondary pitches during Spring Training, and develop confidence with a few good months in AAA, he could provide a huge shot in the arm for the White Sox later in the season.

The way I look at it, whatever transpires as 2009 unfolds will be a positive for the White Sox. If Poreda stays in AAA all year, it means that Colon is getting the job done and staying healthy. If Colon falters, and Richard or Marquez can’t make the most of an opportunity, then Poreda will come up and pitch. And based on the velocity and movement of his fastball, plus his brief but successful track record, he should certainly be able to have success in his first time around the league — even if his other pitches or confidence are not quite yet up to par.

So the final conclusion is this: Aaron Poreda probably won’t break camp with the White Sox, but he could very well still play a huge role in their 2009 success. Regardless, White Sox fans can get excited that even if our current lefty ace actually does retire or move to St. Louis after the completion of his current contract, we have another potential lefty ace for the next decade waiting in the wings.

———-

Jeff Marquez photo credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Aaron Poreda second photo credit: Bill Mitchell/MLB.com

———-

Other Sox links:

Marquez makes fine debut, but look out for #2 — (Sox Machine)

Do White Sox have surprising starter depth? — (South Side Sox)

Sox like their young group of sluggers — (Phil Rogers, Tribune)

Lou Piniella won’t take Ozzie Guillen’s phone calls — (MLB FanHouse)

Contreras and Jenks in the headlines — (The White Sox Blog)

So I decided to wait until the morning, and as crushing as last night’s loss was, I still feel pretty positive about the White Sox. I certainly feel positive about this season. As I recall, most of the pundits were picking the White Sox to finish 3rd or 4th in the division. Cleveland and Detroit were the “it” teams in the offseason. Way to step it up Indians and Tigers. I remember talking with KVB at the start of the year, recalling how every time the White Sox are picked to do nothing we end up having a good season: 2000, 2005, 2008, just name a few seasons. With the additions of Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera I thought this team could be better. And it was, because we all remember how God-awful 2007 was.

And even though the White Sox flamed out in the first round, with a 1-3 series loss to the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, I consider this season to be resounding success. Here are three key reasons why:

1. We found some young pitchers to build around in Gavin Floyd and John Danks. Mark Buehrle is and will continue to be the ace of our pitching staff. Javier Vazquez? Who knows. He’s a good April-June pitcher, but the ‘ol sphincter starts to tighten once the games get more important and I’m just not sure we can trust him to win game games. I don’t know what the report is on Jose Contreras, but I certainly hope he is back healthy at some point next year. With question marks surrounding Javy and Jose Contreras, just think where we would be without the emergence of Gavin Floyd and John Danks. These two guys proved that they can be reliable starters over a 162-game season, and that they have the ability (although Gavin did not show it yesterday) to step in clutch situations. I feel good about Buehrle-Floyd-Danks topping our rotation moving forward. And I would not be shocked to see Clayton Richard in the rotation or pitching key relief innings next year. I like him, and he showed me a little something down the stretch and in the playoffs.
2. Carlos Quentin. The White Sox found their next superstar, and this guy was the runaway MVP if he doesn’t get hurt. I think the injury will give him extra motivation next year, and he’ll have another strong season. He’s young, he’s tough, he’s clutch, and he is just a solid all-around player. The South Side will continue to fall in love with this kid for years.
3. Alexei Ramirez. He will most likely be manning the shortstop next year, and proved that his success with the bat in Cuba could translate to the majors. I’d love to see his combination of speed and power higher up in the order, but he may be best served hitting 6th or 7th to drive in our slow boppers in the middle of the order. The negative is that they can clog the bases for Alexei. Either way, Alexei Ramirez is special and someone to build around.

(I know I said three reasons, but let me add more: Matt Thornton. He had a great season and provided stability to a sometimes shaky bullpen. I hope we lock him up longterm because worst-case-scenario he is a superb specialist to get lefties. The best and more probable case is that he is bridging the 8th inning gap to Bobby Jenks for the next few years).

You will notice a theme in all of the aforementioned reasons why I consider 2008 to be a successful season for the AL Central Champion Chicago White Sox: they are positive signs for the future. I think our franchise is set up pretty well to match or exceed this year’s success next season. We have a GM in Ken Williams who is committed to doing whatever it takes and taking smart chances (Danks for McCarthy, Floyd for Garcia, Quentin for peanuts, signing Alexei) to improve our team. We have a manager who is dynamic, more cunning and smart that people give him credit for, who can adjust his style to match his team, who has the respect of the veterans, and who has proven is ability already with a World Series title. We also have an owner in Jerry Reinsdorf who has proven he will step up to the plate and spend money to field a winning team. And, finally, with a solid stable of veterans who have at least 1-2 more years of solid play while bridging the gap to the future with young guys and newcomers over the next few seasons.

No doubt there will changes for the White Sox in 2009. Orlando Cabrera will likely be gone, as will Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 stalwarts and South Side veterans Joe Crede and Juan Uribe will probably be gone too. Javier Vazquez? I don’t know his contract situation be it seems to me that it would be hard for him to stay around with his last season failures and the lack of the confidence Ozzie has in him. And one can only hope that Boone Logan and Ehren Wasserman are no longer taking the ball and toeing the rubber at U.S. Cellular Field for the White Sox ever again. Nick Swisher’s role on next year’s team seems to be up in the air. Harold Reynolds made a good point yesterday about Swisher being an energy guy and a switch-hitter, and that this predisposes him to needing regular playing time to be effective. I agree. I’d love to see a role for Swish on next year’s team because he quickly became one of my favorites when he joined the team.

Who will be brought in? We shall see. Probably a speedy centerfielder who can hit a little bit. It will be interesting to see if guys like Chris Getz, Gordan Beckham, Josh Fields, Lance Broadway, etc step into regular roles at any point next year. And let’s not put it past Ken Williams to find a diamond in the rough somewhere along the way in the offseason that turns into a star. At this point last year, who would have thought that Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez would be looked at as cornerstones for the future?

The 2008 season ended with a disappointing 6-2 whimper from the White Sox last night at U.S. Cellular Field, but it came on the heels of one of the most exciting 7-day stretches in the history of White Sox baseball. Let’s not lose sight of that Sox fans. The seasons is over, but it was a great and successful season that will result in some sort of banner or flag flying in U.S. Cellular Field forever proclaiming this team as 2008 AL Central Champions. In a season in which we supposed to finish 3rd, our best player was hurt for the final month of the season, our other All-Star was hurt and non-existent after the break, and in which we were completely one-dimensional offensively, being able to call yourself one of six division champions in baseball is nothing to take lightly.

Congratulations on a great 2008 White Sox. I am already looking forward to a successful 2009.

And Sox fans, even though today is rough, remember: at least you aren’t a Cubs fan!

[tags]chicago white sox, baseball, mlb[/tags]

Well, we must wonder no more. I just checked ESPN.com’s baseball schedule and they have the pitching matchups listed as follows:

Game 1 – Today: Javier Vazquez v James Shields.

Game 2 – Friday: Mark Buehrle v Scott Kazmir

Game 3 – Sunday: John Danks v Matt Garza

Game 4 – Monday: Gavin Floyd v Andy Sonnanstine

Game 5 – Wednesday: TBD (and won’t be necessary)

We knew that Javier Vazquez would pitch today, although something tells me Ozzie was not too pleased to have to pencil him in for Game 1. As die-hard a White Sox fan as I am, I have a pretty negative feeling about today’s game specifically. Javy just has not pitched well in big spots. He does, however, have a 3.54 ERA against Tampa Bay this season and held the Rays to a .208 batting average this season. So who knows, maybe he’ll come through with a big game.

I figured that Mark Buehrle would pitch tomorrow. He has had more rest that Danks or Floyd, and he still is the pitcher I most want pitching in a big spot. If we do lose this afternoon, we’ll need a big outing from Buehrle so we can go back to Chicago with a split. Personally, I’d be ecstatic heading home 1-1 because I do not see the Rays beating us on the South Side. The momentum we have, how well we’ve played at home, the pitching matchups, and just the energy of the crowd, plus their team’s youth and inexperience with pressure, playoff baseball all work in the White Sox favor at home. Granted, Mark Buehrle has not exactly been light’s out against the Rays over the last three years (Javy has actually had more success against them) but the fact remains that Buehrle has proven to be much more capable of dialing it up a notch in a key spot, regardless of who we are facing.

When we go home on Sunday, John Danks takes the hill again. This is somewhat curious seeing as how he has pitched more recently than Gavin Floyd; but it makes sense. Danks authored one of the great pitching stories in recent White Sox history on Tuesday night at home. Let him go right back out there for our next home game and feed off the energy of the crowd that will no doubt show him further appreciation for Tuesday’s efforts. He will also be pitching on the four day’s rest to which he is accustomed, thanks to the off day. Furthermore, Danks has been light’s out against Tampa Bay this season. He sports a 1.86 ERA against Tampa Bay with a 20:3 K/BB ratio. Nice. That will not bode for a Tampa Bay team coming off a (projected) game 2 loss and playing in their first playoff road game. We did not face Matt Garza this year, but we’ve pounded him to the tune of a .386 batting average over the last three years.

Then in Game 4 it’s Gavin Floyd’s turn. He has actually never faced the Rays, but went 10-3 at home this year and did his best work against teams over .500. He won 17 games in total, and despite a rough September, finished strong against the Tigers on Monday. Andy Sonnanstine pitched a gem against the White Sox at Tropicana Field early in the season (CG shutout) but neither of his other two starts (one at U.S. Cellular) was a quality start. And I really don’t see Andy Sonnanstine winning a playoff game on the road to a team with experienced veterans, many of whom powered a World Series Champion in 2005.

So that is my official prediction: White Sox in 4. If we lose today Sox fans, don’t worry. I think there is a good chance that we will; but that it will be our only loss. If we do win today, I think a sweep is very possible. Tampa Bay has been a good story, but I think our momentum jolt and our experience give us a huge advantage that will lead the White Sox into the ALCS.

[tags]chicago white sox, tampa bay rays, mlb, mlb playoffs, baseball[/tags]

With the White Sox thrilling win over the Minnesota Twins last night in the one game playoff at U.S. Cellular Field, closed out by a dominating performance from Bobby Jenks, the Good Guys earned the right to play the Tampa Bay Ray in round one of the MLB playoffs. The schedule and pitching matchups for the series are listed below:

(All times are Central)

Game 1 – Thursday 10/2, 1:30: White Sox @ Rays — Javier Vazquez (12-16) v James Shields (14-8)

Game 2 – Friday 10/3, 5:00: White Sox @ Rays — TBA v Scott Kazmir (12-8)

Game 3 – Sunday 10/5, TBD: Rays @ White Sox — Matt Garza (11-9) v TBA

Game 4 – Monday 10/6. TBD: Rays @ White Sox (if necessary)

Game 5 – Wednesday 10/8, TBD: White Sox @ Rays (if necessary)

Obviously, there is uncertainty surrounding the White Sox pitching staff right now. Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks are all coming off pitching on three days’ rest. Something tells me that Ozzie Guillen isn’t too thrilled about penciling Javier Vazquez in for Game 1, but he doesn’t really have another choice. He risks running Mark Buehrle into the ground if he throws him out there, and neither Lance Broadway or Clayton Richard has proven they deserve the ball.

My guess would be that Buehrle pitches Game 2 and Gavin Floyd takes the hill in Game 3 (at which point Floyd would have had almost a full week of rest). The two-day gap between games 2 and 3 will give the White Sox a chance to sort their pitching staff out. But Buehrle will probably need to take the ball on Friday and make it a battle of lefties against Scott Kazmir, assuming his arm is okay after last week (and there is no reason to think that it is not).

I will update this post as the week goes on and we know more about the projected starters and game times. I believe all of the first round games during the week are being broadcast on TBS.

[tags]chicago white sox, mlb playoffs, tampa bay rays[/tags]

“He seems like he knows what he’s doing.”

Those were the words uttered by Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen after Alexei Ramirez’s very first preseason game back in late February. In his first game in a White Sox uniform, the Cuban Missile went 4-5 and served notice the he would be a viable option at second base for the 2008 Chicago White Sox.

In game 162 of the 2008 regular season, Alexei Ramirez did his best Robin Ventura impression and hit one of the most important grand slams White Sox history:

(Kudos to Illini2424 on YouTube for getting that video up so quickly, by the way.)

As Paul Konerko said after the game, “When he hit that grand slam, we knew right there, ‘Ok, we got this one.’”

After a rookie season in which Ramirez cranked 21 home runs and hit four grand slams in total (and MLB rookie record), including the single biggest swing of the bat by any White Sox player this year, Alexei Ramirez would be the runaway winner of Rookie of the Year were in not for the spectacular season of Even Longoria. And who knows, with recency and impact of today’s grand slam, Alexei could still win the award or at least make it close.

What is absolutely certain is the Alexei Ramirez absolutely knows what he’s doing, and has made an incredible jump from the professional leagues of Cuba to the Majors.

Powered Alexei Ramirez’s 6th-inning grand slam and another solid big-game outing from Gavin Floyd, the Chicago White Sox beat the Detroit Tigers 8-2 and forced a one-game playoff against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. While the last two wins were the result of 2005 heroes like Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye, and Paul Konerko coming through in the clutch, a couple of White Sox newbies came through today in Ramirez and Floyd.

And the performance of Gavin Floyd should not be lost in the understandable excitement over the grand slam by the Cuban Missile. Pitching on three days’ rest, the White Sox official assistant ace to Mark Buehrle improved to 17-8 on the season while allowing one earned run over 6 innings. This was the second time in nine days that Gavin Floyd had pitched on three days’ rest.

I have to admit that I was down on Gavin Floyd earlier in the year, believing that he didn’t have the stones to become the ace that his talent suggests he can become. Well, let me just say that I’ve never been happier to be proven wrong. Gavin Floyd has been our most consistent pitcher this year, and he gives us a great opportunity to win pretty much every time out.

Tomorrow, the White Sox will count on another newcomer, lefty John Danks, to come through with a solid outing and lead the White Sox into October. Danks will be facing Nick Blackburn, who beat the White Sox last week in the Metrodome, but who didn’t exactly impress Ozzie Guillen.

This has been a series in which home field advantage has been of paramount importance. For that reason, it is hard not to give the edge to the White Sox. The momentum of coming through in two must-win games at home should also provide a boon for the White Sox chances.

A.J. Pierzynski said he hopes the fans “bring it” tomorrow, and make Comiskey as loud as the Metrodome. Not sure if he’ll be able to hear me cheering from Dallas, but I’ll do my part from over 1,000 miles away. I’m counting on the rest of the proud South Siders to fulfill A.J.’s request and make our house as inhospitable as possible for the visiting Minnesota Twins.

What an amazing end to the season. Everyone picked Detroit and Cleveland to finish 1st and 2nd in the AL Central this year. If you had asked any baseball writer, player, or fan to predict what two teams would be playing in a one-game playoff in game 163 to determine the AL Central champion I would bet that not one response would have included both the White Sox and Twins. Yet, here we are: The regular season is over, and it is the Twins and White Sox still standing.

I am happy that it is against Twins, because I actually hate them the least of all our other AL Central rivals. I share Ozzie’s respect for their manager and the way they play, and it is inspiring to see a team lose its best pitcher and one of its best hitters and still challenge for the playoffs. They are a worthy opponent, which will make it that much sweeter when we beat them tomorrow.

Congratulations on a great season Minnesota. I’m fairly certain I speak for all White Sox fans when I say sincerely that you have our respect and admiration for a great season. And if this game were in the Metrodome I would be as nervous as I possibly could be. But I just don’t see the White Sox losing at home or Minnesota winning on the road.

These are the types of late season momentum boosts that can propel teams to deep October runs. Alexei Ramirez and Gavin Floyd kept the momentum from Sunday going today. I have a feeling that John Danks and Jermaine Dye will be the ones who keep it going tomorrow, and on into Tampa on Wednesday.

[tags]chicago white sox, detroit tigers, minnesota twins, gavin floyd, alexei ramirez, mlb, AL Central, baseball[/tags]