UFC 100

• UFC 100 Date: Saturday July 11th
• UFC 100 Start Time 7pm PT/10pm ET
• UFC 100 TV: Live only on Pay Per View

UFC 100 Betting Lines and Predictions:

Brock Lesnar (Heavyweight Champion) -240 Vs. Frank Mir (Interim Heavyweight Champion) +190

It seems like only yesterday that Brock Lesnar was F-5ing the Big Show on WWE Smackdown, my how time flies. Lesnar is now 2-1 in the UFC and appears to be unstoppable. His combination of size, redneck fervor, and brute force seems to have turned him into some kind of superhuman fighting manufactured home owner.

Back in 2004 Frank Mir captured the Heavyweight Title, then was injured in a motorcycle accident. It was two years before he returned to the octagon, and two more years before he returned to title holder status. The man is a submission expert and seems to have figured out how to win on his feet.

Mir welcomed Lesnar to the UFC by allowing Brock to pound on his face then making him tap out to an ankle lock in the first round. Brock hates Mir for that and for not wearing Death Clutch T-shirts in every interview.

What makes this pick problematic for me is the first fight. Mir said, in a few interviews, he was going to wait for Brock to expose his legs and then attack them because wrestlers tend to forget about them. While Mir was getting pounded by Lesnars meet hooks, he found Brock’s legs, and then attacked them. That says a lot to me about both guys. One, Lesner was relaying on his power and wasn’t paying attention to Mir. Two, Mir actually gameplans.

My Pick: Brock Lesnar… though I don’t feel good about it.

Georges St-Pierre (Welterweight Champion) -300 Vs. Thiago Alves+220

The big news coming into this fight is that Thiago Alves is near making weight. Yeah, nothing about the actual match up. I guess that becomes a big deal when you cut weight to fight at 170 but walk around over 200lbs. Also, he has a history of missing weight for big fights (ok one big fight, but it was the one which gave him this fight).

Georges St-Pierre, the man is invincible. He is like MMAs’ Rambo. He will out wrestle a wrestler, submit a BJJ blackbet, KO and standup fighter, and then shake your hand, bow and wish you the best after he wins. After it’s all said and done he will have probably boinked your sister and you’ll shrug it off saying “Well, that guys good.”

This is where I usually give the underdog some kind of fighting chance then mention what the favorite does well. Alves is good at eating and knocking people out; GSP is great at everything else. This money line may be too close (and that line will decide my fate when Alves hits a flash KO and GSP falls while cursing my name)

My Pick: Georges St-Pierre

Jon Jones -450 Vs. Jake O’Brien +325

Yeah there are some bigger fights on the main card like Fitch Vs. Thiago, the TUF coach fight of Henderson Vs. Bisping, or the two grizzled vets Coleman Vs. Bonnar, but this fight is much more interesting. Not because it will be a back and forth battle between two guys fighting for their livelihoods; or because the two men hate each other and it will quickly divulge into an old fashion slug fest. This is interesting because one of these guys is two fights away from being a headliner, and the other guy is from my hometown.

Jon “Bones” Jones is one good opponent or two more wins away from being the UFC’s next big star. He’s only 21 years old but he is already 8-0 in MMA. In two UFC fights he has pounded his way to decision victories. His last fight should have ended in a spectacular KO via a spinning elbow, but Stephen Bonnar somehow stumbled his way back into a defensive position and was able to make it through the rest of the match while getting manhandled. This guy is fast, powerful, and a showman.

Jake O’Brien isn’t exacly someone to overlook though. He had a lot of success as a heavyweight until he ran into the Pitbull Andrei Arlovski. He suffered one more defeat after that and has decided to drop weight to fight in the stacked Light-Heavyweight division. If Jones wasn’t such a young phenom, I would expect to see something out of O’Brien. Though this fight isn’t on the main card, I would look forward to seeing it.

My Pick: Jon “Bones” Jones

Let’s start with the news from the reigning champions of MMA, the UFC.

UFC 100 would be a huge event no matter what was on the card. The number 100 is a milestone many tried to keep MMA from reaching. Just think back to the late 90’s, when John McCain was petitioning to get MMA banned in the US, the UFC was just getting out of it’s “No Holds Barred” era, and many people viewed the sport as “human cock fighting”. Say what you will about the Feritta brothers, Dana White, and the TapouT Crew (one of whom passed away this week), but without them MMA would have never made it this far.

Just over a month ago it seemed White and company planned on relying on the number “100″ itself to sell the event. They shot down rumors of all titles being on the line that night, they made clear the superfight of our generation between Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre wouldn’t happen, and they had planned to have Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir have their rematch to unify the Heavyweight title at UFC 98. Well what a difference a month makes.

None of this is “official” yet, but the current plans for UFC 100 have Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping facing off in the traditional battle of Ultimate Fighter coaches, GSP is supposed to defend his title against Thiago Alves, and of course the much delayed rematch between Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar for the unification of the UFC Heavyweight Title.

While the UFC is trying to make UFC 100 something special, they still had a UFC 98 that was missing a main event. It was initially announced that if Quintin “Rampage” Jackson defeated Keith Jardine at UFC 96 he would face off with “Sugar” Rashad Evans for the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Title. Rampage defeated Jardine, had a face off with Evans immediately following the fight, and promptly had to pull out of the fight.

It appears Rampage will be undergoing surgery on his jaw to fix an injury suffered during training for his bout against Wanerlei Silva last December. Now Evans is set to face off against Lyoto Machida. While it is much to early to make predictions, I can tell you that the champion is the early underdog in this fight. Not that I would ever gamble online, but if I did, I may have already taken Evans at +160 in this one.

In order to move away from UFC news, I would like to mention that I will be attending Wrestlemania 25 on April 5th in Houston, Texas. What does this have to do with MMA you ask? Let me tell you, part of this week’s big news involved two former WWF/E champions.

Former UFC Heavyweight and WWF Intercontinental Champion Ken Shamrock was supposed to face the former WWE US and ECW World Champion Bobby Lashley at the upcoming Roy Jones Jr.-promoted Boxing/MMA March Badness event. Well, Ken Shamrock has since been suspended for a year from fighting within the US due to testing positive for steroids. Lashley is now scheduled to face off against Clay Guidas’ bigger, not-as-talented brother Jason. Lashley has come out in the last few days saying he wouldn’t mind taking the Shamrock fight to Japan where they don’t uphold US suspensions.

My last little bit of news involves two of the most entertaining fighters in MMA.

Frank Shamrock (adoptive and estranged brother of Ken) will be facing off against perpetual menace to society Nick Diaz. For the record, I am a Frank Shamrock fan. I want to see him fight and I enjoy his spirited verbal sparring most of the time. Nick Diaz I see as a person who has no respect for the sport and the prototype of all that is wrong with meat head fans/fighters. That being said, I am super excited that Strikeforce is making this match-up happen. It could turn into the most entertaining build up to a match since Ali Foreman. As we get closer to the April 11th Showtime fight I will preview more, but for now I will just leave you with quotes from both men. These come courtesy of Cagepotato.com:

“Someone asked me the other day how my comeback was going so I guess I’ve come back. I love fighting. I love this art. I want to thank Nick Diaz for the opportunity and just warn him that when I punch his head and he lands in the second row he’ll need someone to catch him.” — Frank Shamrock

“Frank can talk all he wants, but I’m going to beat him up. Let’s see how much he fights back.’’ — Nick Diaz

As mentioned above, this match was to unify the Heavyweight title Lesnar had won from Randy “The Natural” Coture at UFC 91 last November, and the Interm Heavyweight Title Mir won from Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in December at UFC 92. Mir’s upset victory not only garnered him that interim title, but it added heat to the unification bout since he defeated Lesnar in the first round of his UFC debut.

Now to more immediate info.

UFC 96 is live this Saturday on PPV. As has been my duty in the past, I’m going to give you a look into the money lines, the backgrounds, and my feelings on a few of the fights. First lets his the specifics:

UFC 96 Live on Pay-Per-View, Saturday March 7th, 10pm est. All lines courtesy of BetUs.com.

Quintin “Rampage” Jackson (-350) v Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (+250)

The top fight on this event will see one of my all time favorites take on one of the ugliest men in the business. Rampage has been up and down over the last year. He lost the Light-Heavy title to Forrest Griffin, decided to stop eating and sleeping for a week, went for a highly publicized drive that resulted in injuries and damages to other people and their cars, fired his trainer, and joined a new camp in England. After all of that he still found it in him to turn out the lights on Wanderlei Silva and win the Knockout of the Night award back at UFC 92 in December. It’s rumored if Rampage wins, his next fight will be to reclaim the Light-Heavy title against a surging Rashad Evans.

There isn’t a lot of nice things I have to say about Keith Jardine. He has never wronged me personally and I haven’t met him. As a fighter I just don’t like him.

He is a guy who fights up to the talent level of whoever he’s fighting. That tells me he is lazy. He’s beaten both Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but during this span he has also lost to a failing Wanderlei Silva (who placed one hand on Keith’s neck and used the other to punch him ugly) and a worthless Houston Alexander.

What I am saying is Keith wins fights he should lose and loses fights he should win. His best bet at beating Rampage is by using leg kicks and hoping he can cause the same type damage Forrest Griffin did against Jackson.

My Pick: Rampage via KO in the First.

Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga (-160) V. Shane Carwin (+130)

This is a fight I want to watch. I have no idea what is going to happen in it, but we have one guy in Gonzaga who has the ability to have really fun bouts, and we have a guy in Carwin who is something of an up and comer. Gonzaga has a two-fight win streak going, and both have been dominate. That being said Fabrico Wedum and Randy Couture both TKO’ed him not that long ago.

Shane Carwin is someone I don’t know much about. I have watched his fights without ever really remembering him, of course that probably speaks more to my alcohol consumption then to his memorability. What I have learned about Carwin is that he is a wrestler by nature and he looks like he belongs in the WWE. Most importantly, he has never had to go out of the first round to get a win.

I don’t see it being out of the realm of reasonability that, with Mir out, this becomes a #1 contenders match. Whoever wins gets a shot at Lesnar at 98? I know it’s a bit of a stretch, but it would help the UFC add some last minute heat to a PPV which is seriously lacking buzz.

Just for you the reader, as I was finishing this article I happened across an interview with both Gonzaga and Carwin. It is because of this interview I am changing my prediction:

My Pick: Gonzaga via armbar in the second

Outside of these two fights, there isn’t a whole lot for me to add to this prediction. The actual PPV card is a bit weak for the UFC. Sure the Pete Sell Vs. Matt Brown match could turn into a slug fest, but neither man will turn into a title contender by winning. I am personally hoping to see Matt “The Hammer” Hamill drop to the new comer Mark Muno, but that is solely based on the fact Muno trains with Urijah Faber.

What is probably the most interesting fight on this card is the Brandon Vera v Michael Patt. It’s not interesting because of the matchup, but because Vera is within one loss of becoming a sports cautionary tale. He spent a year in a contract holdout to make huge money, pissed people off, got what he wanted, came back and hasn’t been impressive at all since. If Vira looses this fight, he will have gone from main event-caliber name to a pink slip in less then a year. After having watched the fighters weigh in, Patt looks like the town drunk, but Vera looked like he was already beaten. I wont be suprised if this goes to a decision or if Vera looses via TKO.

Ultimate 2008 was an entertaining card. Personally, I though UFC 91 was a better broadcast but if you bought UFC 92 you definately got your money worth. If you look at “safe bets” UFC 92 took your account. I went 1-3 on my predictions, and the one I hit on was a Vegas underdog.

Rampage, Frank Mir, Rashad Evans, and Cheick Kongo all won by decisive knockouts. Of that group I only hit on Rampage. Too bad I took him in a parlay with Forrest Griffin.

While on the UFC 92 card, I have one question… Has Kongo ever been in a fight where he didn’t deliver one obviously deliberate cock punch? His fight against M. Al Turk saw Al Turk deliver one accidental knee to the groin. AT that point 5 of the people in my room made joks that all suggested we knew Kongo wouldnt allow someone to get by with his trademarked knee to the nuts. Sure enough during the next clench Kongo got himself into position, looked down to make sure where his knee was, then lifted Al Turn off his feet via a knee to the junk.

I think it’s time to start fining guys for repeated rules violations. I’m not talking about the occasional accidental kick to the groin, thumb to the eye, or accidental blow to the back of the head. I’m talking about patterns that arise and violate the rules whenever a certin fighter fights. Kongo has built a career using knees to the balls, every fight there is at least one. If I were a heavyweight I wouldn’t want to fight the guy, not because he’s good, but because I saw what happened to every other guy he has fought.

Moving on to new news it appears the door is open for Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski to return to the UFC. Dana White was quoted this week as saying that Arlovski is the one who got away. Andrei wanted to do some boxing and stuff outside UFC and Dana wanted Arlovski all to himself. I would look for Andrei to start talking with Dana seriously after he his upcoming Affliction bout against Fedor Emelianenko on January 24. As for that bout, I’ll take Arlovski, I dont care how great Fedor is or was, there is just something special about Andrei’s fanged mouthpiece and that smile which makes me pick him every time. Side note: as soon as I saw Rashad Evans was wearing a fanged mouth piece against Forrest Griffin I knew my money was on the wrong fighter. One of my rules is never bet against the fangs.

In other Dana White news, it is reported that he may be interested in bringing back Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. It was reported on Cagepotato.com that Dana said (On Best Damn Sports Show) if Cro Cop wins his New Years eve freakshow fight against Hong Man Choi he will be welcomed back in the UFC. Adding more fuel to this fire, Cro COp still has his cage up in his training facility. Now, I dont want to run with speculation, but UFC needs heavyweights. Cro Cop is a marketable heavyweight, even if he went 1-2 in his UFC stint and had a horrible 2008 (Hey who didn’t?), he is still a former top 5 heavyweight who has crazy knock out power. I’m not saying this will happen, I’m just saying I would pay to watch Mirko fight anyone, especially if he is coming in with a point to prove.

For you experienced degenerates who know how to read money lines, skip to the next paragraph, the rest of you read on. A money line has a + or a – in front of it. If there is a + it means that person or team is

supposed to lose. If there is a – then they are the favorite to win. The number following the + or -

indicates what you would win or lose. A typical lines reads like this: Mike Tyson -200 Vs Little Mac +700. That means if you bet on Tyson (the favorite), and he won, you would have to wager $200 in order to win $100. If you bet $100 on Little Mac (the underdog), and he won, you would win $700. Hope that helps.

I gave some predictions at the beginning of the month, if you want to check them out go here. Now I am going to look at the top three lines, give my opinion, pick an upset, then post the lines for the rest of the card.

Quintin “Rampage” Jackson +110 V. Wanderlei “The Ax Murder” Silva -140 I keep seeing this line change. Everything points to Rampage getting his third beating by Wande, but something tells me he is going to win this fight. He feels like his title was stolen from him, he dropped his old manager, went crazy, got himself together, joined a new fight camp in England, and now has what Micky would call “that Eye of the Tiger” again. Wanderlie on the other hand never lost his urge to … well… Ax Murder. He had a highlight reel knockout of Keith Jardine last time he fought, but before that he seemed to be on his way down. Silva does have two, count ‘em, two brutal KO and TKO victories over Jackson back in the Pride F/C years and he hasn’t recently been involved with tabloid scandals.

This line is so close it’s not really worth betting on Rampage unless you feel he is a lock. With Silva having been around the block a few times I wouldn’t feel right putting my money on him either.

My Pick: Rampage wins and makes some people very little money.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Interm Champ) -350 Vs. Frank Mir +275 I’m not supposed to like Frank Mir. He’s cocky, doesn’t train hard, and makes light of serious situations. But damn it, he’s made me laugh a lot. As a result I hate to see him face Nogueria. There is just nothing funny about a man who can be beaten within one breath of death, then pull out a submission victory and do that on a regular basis. Nogueira is a freak of nature, the fact the guy can walk is a testament to how tough his skull is. Tim SIlvia pounded it until I though his hands were broke, and then what happened? Nog made that fat f… guy tap. Keep in mind, the winner of this fight will soon be facing Brock Lesnar to unify the heavyweight title.

The line on this is what it should be, I’d bet on the return of Corey Haim before I’d put money on Mir. Sure it’s tempting to throw a few bucks on him, but that’s money you’ll never see again.

My Pick: Big Nog chokes Mir out in 3.

Forrest Griffin (Champ) -130 Vs. Rashad Evans EVEN MONEY Wow, This is a close line. Ultimate Fighter Season 1 winner Vs. Ultimate Fighter Season 2 winner. This is getting my pick for fight of the night. I think Rashad Evans is turning into a hell of a fighter, and I think Forrest Griffin is a hell of a fighter. There is going to be a lot of take-downs followed by scrambles and stand up. Forrest has proven to be one of the toughest SOB’s in the history of the UFC. Everything from his T.U.F. final fight versus Stephen Bonner and his near upset over Tito Ortiz, to his controversial championship win over Rampage has proven that Forrest is the real deal. Rashad Evans has also proven himself worthy of the UFC and this title fight by taking Tito to a judges Draw and then knocking the hell outta Chuck Liddell.

If you bet on Rashad, and he wins, you double your money. To make any money on Forrest you don’t have to bet much more. This one is close enough you’re probably better served spending your gambling money on beer and just watching.

My Pick: Forrest retains by judges decision.

My Pick for random upset of the night goes to:

Mostapha Al Turk +250 Vs. Cheick Kongo -325 My only real reasoning for this is that Chuck seems overrated to me. Part of that is due to his fight against one of my favorite fighters (Cro Cop) in which he won after hitting Cro Cop in the junk about 8 times a round for three rounds. He has been impressive in one fight since then, but I have read some minor rumblings about Al Turk being an up and commer. So, don’t take my word for it, but I think Chuck “Dick Punch” Kongo goes down in round 1.

Here are the rest of the lines in no paticular order:

Yushin Okami -350 Vs. Dean Lister +275

Matt Hamill -500 Vs. Reese Andy +300

Ryo Chonan -170 Vs. Brad Blackburn+140

Dan Evensen +200 Vs. Pat Barry-250

CB Dollaway -150 Vs. Mike Massenzio +120

Antoni Hardonk -365 Vs. Mike Wessel +285

(Editor’s Note: UFC 92 takes place on December 27, 2008 live on Pay-Per-View from the MGM Grand.)

First we have my personal favorite fighter and monster truckowner in Quinton “Rampage the streets of LA” Jackson fighting Wanderlei “The Ax Murder” Silva (known around these parts as Clay Face).

Unless your an MMA, junkie you may not have heard about an organization known as Pride F/C, but these two fought there twice before. Both times Rampage got knocked out by Clay Faces’ knees.

Rampage is different now, and until he went crazy after his loss to Forrest Griffin, he was a more focused and better fighter then he had ever been. Clay Face on the other hand seemed to be on his way down the ranks until his brutal “grab him by the throat and punch him until he can’t move” beating of Keith “Overrated” Jardine.

My Pick – Rampage in 2nd via TKO

Also on this card we see former Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir fighting the Interim Heavyweight Champion “Minotaro” Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

We all know the only reason this fight is happening is because they were the coaches of The Ultimate Fighter this season. More importantly, we also know that whoever wins has the daunting task of taking that interim title and facing Brock Lesnar to unify the heavyweight titles.

So in my estimation, whoever wins this fight is actually losing. That being said, these are two of the great submission artists in the heavyweight division. All of us BJJ fans out there this should find this to be a great match-up.

If you dont know who to cheer for look at it this way: Nogueira is like a zombie (credit goes to the video below and Frank Mir), and Mir has already beaten Lesnar. So If you don’t like Lesnar go for Mir; if you do like zombies go for Nogueira.

My Pick – Nogueira in 3rd vis submission after having his ass whipped by Mir for 2 1/2 rounds

The last fight I want to look at is the main event “Sugar” Rashad Evans Vs. Light Heavy Champ Forrest Griffin. I’m still a bit bitter about Griffin beating the common sense out of Rampage back in July and taking his title.

That being said, I like Forrest and think he comes off as a genuinely good guy who works as hard as anyone could to be the best at what he does. We all know the man can take a beating and keep on fighting. With Evans we don’t have a lot of history to work with. Yeah he’s the season 2 TUF winner, fought Ortiz to a draw, he started as a pure wrestler, and has since developed a stand-up game that seems to be one of the best in the sport.

Everyone talks about his knock out of Chuck Liddell, and while it was beautiful, it wasn’t that impressive. You have to be a Liddell fan boy or have never watched the sport to think that Liddell is half the fighter he used to be.

Let’s face it, Liddells‘ fight against an aging Clay Face was much closer then the UFC allows people to think it was, he got beat by “Over Rated” Jardine, and Rampage didn’t even let Chuck outta the first round. Not knowing that Evans was going to win would have been like not knowing you were 9 months pregnant.

When all is said and done, this should be an ultimate slug fest. Evans will try and take Griffin down, but Griffin wont let him and it will end up being toe to toe most of the fight.

My Pick – Forrest Griffin retains the 205lbs Belt by decision after having the snot pounded out of him

Here is a little video Preview: