Fantasy Sports

I’m finally stepping up the fantasy baseball content here at MSF…and it’s about time.

Yesterday, we regaled you with the first edition of Fantasy Baseball Believe It or Not, in which we analyzed the starts of Alexei Ramirez, Marco Scutaro, Raul Ibanez, and others. Hopefully you found it valuable.

Today, we are going to discuss some guys who are suggesting themselves as waiver wire sleepers for the rest of the 2009 season based on their pedigree, history, and production so far this April.

I have four fantasy teams this season, and I just spent the last hour scouring the waiver wire, trimming the fat off my roster, and looking to unearth a few guys who were overlooked to start this year but who are playing well — and could potentially keep it up.

Below is what I found out.

(Note: All position eligibility listings and ownership stats are based on Yahoo!)

2009 Fantasy Baseball Mixed 5×5 League Waiver Wire Sleepers

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper: Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins (OF – 43% ownership)

Hermida is playing well so far during the Marlins’ surprisingly torrid start to the season. He is hitting .316 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, and 1 SB. Most importantly, his K:BB ratio is nearly 1:1 (it’s 8:7). In 2007 and 2008, Jeremy Hermida‘s combined K:BB ratio was 243:95. Not good.

So either the more disciplined start through 38 ABs is an anomaly produced by a small sample size, or Hermida is on the verge of living up to the potential that has had him on waiver wire sleeper lists seemingly this entire decade (but really only since about 2005-2006).

Here is the thing though: Jeremy Hermida is still only 25. And he has a tremendous pedigree as a former first round pick (11th overall) by a franchise that obviously knows how to scout talent. This should give you confidence that Hermida has the tools to become an above average player at the big league level.

Hermida reached the Majors at 21 in 2005 and obviously was not ready. He has spent portions of the last 3 years in the bigs as well, though never amassing more than the 502 ABs he got last year. In fact, Hermida somewhat regressed last season. But as a guy in the 25-27 age range who has 3+ years of Major League experience, Hermida’s 2009 campaign has breakout season written all over it. And this is being manifested with his fast start through 11 games in 2009.

I wouldn’t expect miracles, because Hermida’s K rate will surely regress at least somewhat towards his career average, and his spot in the lineup isn’t great. He is hitting 6th currently, behind Jorge Cantu and Dan Uggla — two guys more adept at clearing the bases than getting on base to be knocked in. And Hermida plays his home games at cavernous Pro Player Stadium, which limits his power potential.

However, across the board improvement over last season certainly appears reasonable. I would pencil Hermida in to hit .290-.300 with 25-30 HR, 85-95 RBI, and score 70-80 runs. He will also pilfer the occasional sack too. He is a guy that holds value as a 3rd OF or utility player, or a solid backup OF to fill in for your starters on off days. I’d run to the waiver wire to get him, because few guys still reasonably available hold as much potential value for 2009 as Jeremy Hermida.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper: Travis Snider, Toronto Blue Jays (OF – 55% ownership)

This is another guy that you may want to run to the waiver wire to check out. However, I will say this right now: even though the immediate buzz is stronger for Snider, and he is owned by more people, I like Hermida more because he has more big league experience.

But Snider’s potential is certainly dazzling.

He has started nine games for the Blue Jays so far this year and is hitting .321 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R, and 1 SB, and is doing it all hitting in the 9 hole. Jays manager Cito Gaston does note want to place too much pressure on the young phenom, who was the 14th pick in the 1st round back ins 2006. And look at Travis Snider’s minor league statistics. Through three levels over three seasons leading up to 2009, Snider has hit .299 with 50 HR, 225 RBI, 197 R, and 12 SB in 1,302 minor league ABs. Thus, his production this year is not all that surprising.

Here’s what is surprising: through 28 ABs, Snider’s K:BB ratio is 2:1. This is better than his career minor league K:BB ratio of 330:140, and what he did in 74 ABs last season: 23:5. And while his propensity to strike out is not a great sign, though not that unusual for such a young player, he hit .301 in his 74 ABs last season, and was nearly a .300 hitter in the minors. So clearly, Travis Snider can still hit for average despite striking out a pretty high amount.

As a still very young and raw player, I would expect slight, though not great, improvement in his K:BB numbers this year. And as long as he’s hitting in the 9 hole, Snider’s potential for run production will be someone stunted. But if he keeps hitting like he is, he surely will be moved up and have a chance to drive in more runs.

I would be cautious with Travis Snider though. Once he has taken a full pass through the league, pitchers will adjust to him and he will have to adjust back. This is where many young hitters run into slumps and struggles, as it is their first time making adjustments at the big league level. Remember Jay Bruce last year? He took the NL by storm when he first came up as a former 1st round pick with a big bat but a propensity to strike out. His second time around the league he struggled mightily. There is a reason that 21-year olds rarely make big, consistent impacts over a full season at the ML level. So temper your expectations for Snider.

All that said, talent is talent – and Travis Snider has talent. I wouldn’t put him in at a top-3 OF spot and think you’re set for the whole year. But considering his hot start and his talent, he’s certainly worth a look. In keeper leagues, he obviously has even more value.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper: Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins (SP – 41% ownership)

Because of Glen Perkins, I would like to thank Chien-Ming Wang for his terrifically awful start yesterday against the Cleveland Indians. I needed Wang to give me six solid innings yesterday to complete my innings requirement for the week in one league. Wang, of course, did not even get out of the 2nd inning before giving up 8 ER. However, Wang’s failure sent me running to the waiver wire, where I found Glen Perkins and ended up thankful for my good fortune because I don’t think I’ll be letting Perkins go anytime soon.

This guy has many of the indicators of a waiver wire sleeper that you would want:

• Solid pedigree? Check. (Perkins was a 1st round pick by the Twins in 2004.)
• Stretched out arm? Check — but see below. (Glen Perkins has pitched 368.1 minor league innings, and threw 151 innings for the Twins last year.)
• Age? Check. (Perkins is 26, which is right in the 25-27 age range at which most talented players begin to reach their big league potential.)
• Solid peripherals? Check. (Perkins struggled somewhat in Minnesota last year with a WHIP of 1.47 and lower K/9 rate than his minor league track record would suggest. But this is a guy who struck out 380 hitters in his 368.1 minor league innings, with a WHIP of 1.268.)
• Solid start to 2009? Check. (Perkins is 0-1 but has thrown 8 innings in both starts with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.94. He has only struck out 8 batters, showing further proof that you should temper expectations for Ks, but he has only walked 3 batters in his two starts and is giving up less than one hit per inning.)
• Solid defense behind him? Check. (Perkins pitches for Minnesota, so we know he has a defense that will allow him to throw strikes, pitch to contact, and keep his BABIP against numbers low, thus maximizing his WHIP and ERA.)

If you want to know how to project Glen Perkins, I would say somewhere between his career minor league numbers and his numbers from last year. The drop in his K/9 rate is a little disconcerting, but if there is any team that can help mitigate that, it is the Twins. He may struggle for wins this year, because Minnesota is really struggling offensively, but with a full season I think he could match the 12 he got last year, to go along with an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range and a whip around 1.30. Those are not ace numbers by any means, but good enough to round out your rotation as a #4 or #5 starter and to provide insurance in case one of your top guys goes down with injury.

One red flag with Perkins is the innings jump he made from 2007-2008. Here are his combined minor and major league innings pitched numbers as a professional:

• 2004: 60.0 IP
• 2005: 134.0 IP
• 2006: 121.1 IP
• 2007: 48.0 IP
• 2008: 184.1 IP

The Twins used Glen Perkins out of the bullpen in 2007, and he pitched well. However, he 136.1 inning jump from 2007 to 2008 could portend arm troubles this season and perhaps explain his diminishing K/9 rate. So just know that the possibility exists. But we’re talking waiver wire sleepers here. You wouldn’t trust Perkins as one of your top starters, nor should you. But he has value as a waiver wire pick up if he is still out there in your league.

Here are a few other guys I like as potential waiver wire sleepers for the balance of 2009:

• Endy Chavez, Seattle Mariners (OF – 27% owned) — 4 SB in 47 ABs
• Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins (OF – 26% owned) — 12 RBI in 41 ABs
• Chase Headley, San Diego Padres (OF, 3B – 28% owned) — 22 TB in 46 ABs
• Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates (1B – 43% owned) — 3 HR in 41 April ABs.
• Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox (RP – 38% owned) — 9 K in 4.2 IP
• Bartolo Colon, Chicago White Sox (SP – 21% owned) — 1-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 2 starts
• Brian Bruney, New York Yankees (RP – 24% owned) — 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 Ks in 6 IP
• Dallas Braden, Oakland A’s (SP – 16% owned) — 1-1, 3.75 ERA in 2 starts

Now it’s time to go fire up stattracker and see how my teams fare today. Hopefully Glen Perkins backs me up with a good start this afternoon. Have a great Sunday everyone.