Week 10 has passed and fantasy owners are on the grind to get over the top and make a run to either lock up a playoff spot, or are trying to thrash their way into a playoff spot.

Regardless of your position, you are here to see what week 11 has in store, so let’s get to it with our weekly play ‘em/bench ‘em feature here at MSF.

Among the players featured this week: Beanie Wells, Kellen Winslow, Steve Smith (Panthers), Knowshon Moreno, Marshawn Lynch, and Roy Williams.

Quick note: If you need any sleepers or waiver wire steals, check out PFI’s Week 11 Sleepers and Waiver Wire Steals.

Also, the format of Play Em / Bench Em is a little different this week, with it being more of a “quick hit” format to give you more information on more players.

Must Starts – These players are must starts on your team if you own them, and need no explanation. Put them in your lineup and do not remove them. These guys are capable of 20+ point weeks every Sunday…especially this Sunday…and you don’t ever want to miss out.

• Chris Johnson
• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Adrian Peterson
• Andre Johnson
• Kurt Warner
• Larry Fitzgerald
• Steven Jackson
• Brett Farve
• Peyton Manning
• Tom Brady
• Randy Moss
• Aaron Rodgers
• Ray Rice
• Reggie Wayne
• Donovan McNabb

Play ‘Em Quick Hits:

Steve Smith – WR – Panthers.  I passed onto everyone last week to start Smith, who by every measure has suffered tremendously from his quarterback’s poor performance this year.  Smith is still an incredible receiver coming off of a 2 TD performance.  Hopefully this will give Smith momentum going forward.  Play him.

Kellen Winslow – TE – Buccaneers. Winslow has had two good weeks in a row, and after his 7 grabs for 102 yards last week, it is clear that he and rookie QB Josh Freeman are on the same page. Tampa faces the undefeated Saints at home this week, which is not a favorable match up, but if the Buccs are going to have any success through the air, Winslow will be involved. Play him.

(Note: Jerod also recommended Winslow as a Week 11 start in his Week 11 start ‘em, sit ‘em column.)

Beanie Wells – RB – Cardinals. Beanie is coming off of an 85 rushing yard, 2 TD performance. Wells has more abilities than does counterpart Tim Hightower, as Wells has big play abilities. The Cardinals are facing the Rams, and the Cardinals will be able to explore all facets of their offensive game this week. Play him.

To see the rest of my “Play ems” for Week 11, click here.

Bench ‘Em Quick Hits:

Roy E. Williams – WR – Cowboys. On paper, Roy had a great game last week against the Packers in a losing effort as he had 5 grabs, 105 yards and a touchdown. What you don’t see on the stat sheet was the dropped, more than catchable balls, or the fumble on what most likely would have resulted in another touchdown had he not lost possession of the ball. The look of disgust on Tony Romo’s face was obvious after the drop, as I anticipate Romo to look for Jason Witten and Miles Austin more this week, as they face a gritty Redskins defense. Bench him, unless you’re me and you have to start em.

Knowshon Moreno – RB – Broncos. Moreno will face the Chargers this week minus starting QB Kyle Orton. Moreno’s visit to San Diego earlier in the year resulted in the following stat line; 18 carries for 44 yards. Now I anticipate the Chargers forcing the Broncos to have to pass, as Chris Simms does not strike fear into any defenses. The Chargers will key in on the run and force Simms to beat them. Bench him.

Marshawn Lynch – RB – Bills. Since Lynch’s return after his 4 game suspension, he has only has 1 TD on the year, and has not rushed for 70 yards or more yet on the season. Until the Bills can keep their QB standing, and can block for their running backs, Lynch has little to no value. Bench him, and all of your Bills.

To see the rest of my “Bench ems” for Week 11, click here.

Again, if you need sleepers or waiver wire steals, click here.

If I did not cover someone who you were looking for advise on, leave a question in the comments section below. Become a fan of ProFootballinsight on Facebook or follow fraschettik on Twitter for instant article notifications.

Check out PFI’s Fantasy Football Mid-Season Awards.

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight

Kurt@ProFootballinsight.net

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* – Beanie Wells photo credit:Tony Kurdzuk/The Star-Ledger via NJ.com

Week 10 is gone and you are now one of four people.

You are one of the few who are cruising your way into the playoffs, in the driver’s seat, in first place…

Or are you the one who would be in the playoffs right now if the season ended today, but you have three weeks left and a ton of pressure from the teams right below you…

Or you are one of the many who are clawing their way from being one of the non-playoff teams and trying everything to move into one of the final playoff spots…

Or is your season done and now you are just trying to screw everyone else.

Regardless of which one you are, (hopefully you’re in groups one through three) you are reading this because you are looking for more information to help you this week.

So who are this week’s sleepers and waiver wire steals?

Week 11 Sleepers and Waiver Wire Steals

Week 11 Sleeper Pick: Justin Forsett – RB – Seahawks

After starter Julius Jones left Sunday’s game with a chest injury and did not return, Justin Forsett, in his second year out of the University of California, took full advantage of his opportunities. Forsett went off for 123 yards on 17 carries with a touchdown. He also added 5 catches for 26 yards.

Jones’ status at this point is not clear, but in the event that Jones is not available, Forsett is a viable starter. Even if Jones plays, Forsett earned carries off of this performance.

Week 11 Waiver Wire Steal: Jason Avant – WR – Eagles

There is a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball for the Eagles, and as I say so often, not enough footballs to go around; but, Jason Avant’s performance last week makes him an option if you are looking for a WR that is available this week. Avant had 8 grabs for 156 yards on 9 targets from McNabb.

With Brian Westbrook’s health being an issue again this week, McNabb will once again have to carry the load. The Eagles are facing the Chicago Bears on primetime Sunday night football. The Bears defense, with the exception of last week, has been more than generous to opposing offenses through the air. Just ask Kurt Warner, who threw 5 TDs against Chicago. Avant is available in over 98% of fantasy football leagues, so grab him if you need him.

Follow the link for the rest of PFI’s Week 11 sleepers and waiver wire steals.

You can also read PFI’s Week 11 Play ‘em or Bench ‘em picks later in the week.

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight.net

Kurt@ProFootballinsight.net

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* – Justin Forsett photo credit: David Paul Morris/Getty Images via SeattlePI.com

I knew that if I stuck with Jamaal Charles long enough that he would come through for me; and come through he did. Not that it should be all that surprising, but Charles carved up the Raiders’ D for 100+ yards and a touchdown.

The question now becomes whether or not Charles is a must-start on a go forward basis. Most weeks he may be, but you certainly have to wonder about him this week with the Pittsburgh Steelers on the schedule.

I’ll tell you one guy I wouldn’t question in Week 11: Ricky Williams. He should be a guy you’re playing most weeks anyway, but with Ronnie Brown’s status in doubt for Thursday night, Ricky’s value skyrockets.

As I try to do every week, I’ll make my best attempt to steer you in the right direction about Charles, Williams, and a host of other players. That’s what this post is all about, so let’s get to it.

As has become our custom for these start ‘em, sit ‘em breakdowns, here is a little love for one of our favorite content sponsors, Sadler’s Smokehouse:

Certain content on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.

Support MSF by visiting the Sadler’s Smokehouse website: Sadler’s Smokehouse

——————–

And now, a quick look back at the hits and misses from Week 10:

• Start ‘em hits: Brett Favre, MIN; Jamaal Charles, KC; Calvin Johnson, DET; John Carlson, SEA (thanks to his TD!); Baltimore Ravens D/ST
• Start ‘em misses: Calvin Johnson and John Carlson weren’t great, but I think they did enough to stay out of the miss category. But just so you know, I know they weren’t slam dunks.
• Sit ‘em hits: Julius Jones, SEA; Austin Collie, IND; Fred Davis, WAS; Indianapolis and New England D/ST units
• Sit ‘em misses: David Garrard, JAX;

Okay, time to jump right into the Week 11 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks. Remember that the byes are over, so everyone is fair game for a start…unless they play for the Browns.

(Random thought: since the Lions and Browns are playing this week, does it actually make someone not named Calvin Johnson playable? Tempting right?)

Fantasy Football

Week 11 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 11 Start ‘em, Sit ‘em Picks: Quarterbacks

Start ‘em: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (at Denver Broncos)

My affection for Philip Rivers continues to grow by the week. He was brilliant in Week 10 against Philadelphia, going 20-25 for 231 yards, two TDs, and no interceptions. On the season, he’s averaging 275.1 yards per game and almost two TDs per game, while only tossing six INTs thus far.

So then why does Yahoo have Rivers listed as only the 10th best QB for Week 11? And behind Eli Manning? Really?

The reason is probably the matchup, which comes against Denver and its 5th rated defense. And while the Broncos will provide a greater challenge than Rivers’ last four opponents (Eagles, Giants, Raiders, Chiefs), I don’t think it’s enough that it should scare you from starting Rivers.

Consider this: Champ Bailey has been in Denver for a long time; still, Rivers has a career QB rating of 110.7 against Denver, throws for almost 250 yards per game, and has thrown 13 TDs against only four INTs in eight career games against the Broncos.

By this point, unless you have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, I think Philip Rivers has to be a weekly must-start. Don’t blow it and outthink yourself just because Denver’s on the schedule. Rivers has succeeded against Denver before, and he’ll do it again this week.

Philip Rivers Week 11 fantasy projection: 260 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10

• Matt Schaub is back and going against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses in Tennessee. He has to be in your lineup.
• The Chicago Bears have given up the 5th most TD passes in the NFL. Donovan McNabb is already licking his chops for Sunday night; start him!
• Ben Roethlisberger was slowed by Cincinnati on Sunday and did not look good, but he should get back on track against Kansas City. In 12-team and other deeper leagues, Big Ben makes a good start.

Sit ‘em: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at New York Giants)

I love Matt Ryan long-term (even for later on this season) and he’s my starting QB in a couple of leagues. I just won’t have him starting this week.

The reason is that Ryan is really struggling right now. He has thrown eight INTs in the last four games against only five TDs. Granted, he’s faced some pretty good pass defenses, and three of them on the road (@DAL, @NO, WAS, @CAR), but something still feels off. At this point, I want to see him have a solid outing before I trust him enough to throw him out there in a 1-QB league.

Now, you might wonder if the Giants present a good matchup for Ryan. Yes, they have given up 15 TD passes this year (7th worst) and are on a huge slide. However, they are at home, coming off of their bye week, and getting CB Aaron Ross back.

In a week that is make-or-break for many of us, there are about 15-16 QBs I’d rather have starting this week than Matt Ryan. Hopefully you have one of them.

Matt Ryan Week 11 fantasy projection: 215 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT

Other sit ‘em QB for Week 11:

• Tony Romo has only thrown one TD pass in each of his last two games and faces Washington’s top-ranked pass D this week.
• Jay Cutler is playing a prime-time game. Uh oh…
• David Garrard is facing Buffalo, a team that cannot stop the run but that is pretty good against the pass. Good week to sit David.

Week 11 Start ‘em, Sit ‘em Picks: Running Backs

Start ‘em: Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins (vs Carolina Panthers)

This one should go without saying considering Williams’ nose for the end zone this year (6 TDs) and the fact that Ronnie Brown is unlikely to play Thursday night, but I just want to make sure we’re all on the same page.

Ricky is averaging 5.3 yards per carry on the season and is coming off a tremendous 20-carry, 102-yard effort last week against Tampa Bay. He also has a nice matchup this week as Carolina is only 25th against the run (128.1 yards per game) and has given up 9 rushing TDs.

We know that Miami is committed to the run and committed to Ricky as being a major part of their attack. With Ronnie Brown out, Ricky should again get 20+ carries and should grab at least one TD. Start him with confidence.

Ricky Williams Week 10 fantasy projection: 105 yards, 2 TDs, 3 rec, 25 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 11:

• Steve Slaton. Surprised to see him here? Call it a hunch. Gary Kubiak says he will base playing time on how his guys practiced during the bye week. With Slaton’s 2008 draft classmate Chris Johnson coming to town Monday night, I have a feeling Slaton will be a little extra motivated to get out there and play well.
• Beanie Wells is averaging 5.3+ yards per carry the last two weeks and scored two TDs last week. He’s also getting 13-16 touches per game. With St. Louis on the Week 11 docket, it’s a good time to start Wells.
• LeSean McCoy will most likely be starting this week with Brian Westbrook likely out with another concussion. This guy plays well when he starts. I think he should be in your lineup.

Sit ‘em: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

Last week I was right about Jamaal Charles as a start. He had a splendid game against Oakland Raiders.

But let’s repeat who the game was against. Say it with me now: the Oakland Raiders.

This week, Charles gets to walk into a stirred-up hornets nest. The Steelers are coming off a loss to the Bengals that dropped them to 6-3. Mike Tomlin was not happy and something tells me Pittsburgh will be fired up and ready to go.

The Steelers give up only 69.3 yards per game on the ground, which is almost 15 yards less than the 2nd best team. For KC to have any chance, Matt Cassel is going to have to take advantage of Troy Polamalu’s absence and get it done through the air.

While Charles does provide some value as a receiver (seven catches the last two weeks) it is not enough, nor is Charles proven enough, to be a start against Pittsburgh.

Jamaal Charles Week 11 fantasy projection: 35 yards rushing, 4 rec, 20 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 11:

• I am not a big Cadillac Williams fan this week. He is averaging less than 50 yards per game, less than 4.0 yards per carry, and has scored only 3 TDs. Plus, he is facing New Orleans this week, which means the Bucs will likely be behind and forced to throw.
• Felix Jones remains an emphatic sit as he has all of seven touches the last two weeks. So much for my preseason sleeper.
• Justin Forsett had a great week last week against Minnesota, but I’m wary. The Vikings have a great defense and the Seahawks have to go to Minnesota. I’d rather wait a week and see if Forsett can repeat his Week 10 success.

Week 11 Start ‘em, Sit ‘em Picks: Wide Receivers

Start ‘em: Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers (vs San Francisco 49ers)

If you’re like me, a Jennings owner, this has been a frustrating season for you. After scoring 21 TDs the last two seasons, Jennings has scored a whopping two this year. The main reason why is that his yards per catch has gone from 17.4 in 2007 to 16.2 in 2008 to 14.3 this year.

I think, however, that this weekend could be a breakout of sorts of Jennings. Call it wishful thinking if you like, but there are numbers to back it up.

San Francisco is outstanding against the run, giving up only 87.7 yards per game and allowing just 8 rushing TDs on the season. Against the pass, however, San Francisco is 29th in the league (248.3 yards per game). More importantly, they have given up the 7th most plays of 20+ yards and the 9th most plays of 40+ yards.

That means there could be some big plays available for Greg Jennings, if Aaron Rodgers can get some protection and get rid of the ball in a timely fashion. San Francisco is only 21st in the league in sacks, so Rodgers very well could find the going a bit less rough this week.

Greg Jennings Week 11 fantasy projection: 6 rec, 110 yards, TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 11:

• Lee Evans continues to be undervalued. He has 15 catches over the last four games, but more importantly has four TDs during that span. Jacksonville is susceptible to the deep ball.
• Sidney Rice has at least 136 yards receiving in three of his last four games. He has a whopping 786 yards receiving on the season. Start him, without question, as the TDs will be coming.
• Kevin Walter is coming around…finally. He has nine catches over his last two games and gets Tennessee’s woeful pass D this week. If there’s a matchup to start him, this is it.

Sit ‘em: Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings (vs Seattle)

It is pretty clear that Bernard Berrian is no more than the third option on the Vikings’ offense (behind Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice). He may even be the 4th option considering the production the Vikings have gotten from Percy Harvin this season. And around the goalline, as we know, Berrian is barely even an option, and certainly nowhere near the option that Visanthe Shiancoe is.

So do you really want a 4th or 5th option starting for you at WR? Even for a team as good as Minnesota, in a matchup as good as this week’s against Seattle, I want to see some production from Berrian before I feel comfortable starting him.

Remember folks, this is Week 11. For many of you, it’s boom or bust this week in terms of the playoffs. I don’t want to put one of my spots in the hands of such a boom or bust player if I can help it. Find someone more consistent.

Bernard Berrian Week 11 fantasy projection: 3 rec, 45 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 11:

• I’m not buying Roy Williams. I know his numbers have been up the last two weeks, but the Cowboys are facing Washington next week and Wade Phillips already said that they relied too much on Tony Romo last week. Back to the running game (and more Miles Austin, I bet).
• I know that Terrell Owens had 85 receiving yards in Week 10, but he still only has one receiving TD on the year. Don’t be fooled into starting him.
• Michael Crabtree remains a sit until he proves he’s a red zone threat, which is what I’ve said about him all along. His receptions have dwindled over the last two weeks (three and four in weeks 9 and 10, respectively).

Week 11 Start ‘em, Sit ‘em Picks: Tight Ends

Start ‘em: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New Orleans)

It is clear that K2 is a favorite of rookie QB Josh Freeman. Over the last two weeks, since Freeman took over the starting QB job, Winslow has 11 catches, 159 yards, and a TD.

With New Orleans coming to town, the Bucs will likely be down early and down a lot, forcing Freeman to take to the air. That is a terrific recipe for Kellen Winslow to have a successful week.

(And you all know that I don’t like Kellen Winslow, so you know I really mean it to put him here.)

Kellen Winslow Week 11 fantasy projection: 6 rec, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 11:

• Greg Olsen remains a guy you have to start. 12 receptions and 146 yards over the last two games.
• I know that Visanthe Shiancoe’s reception and yardage numbers aren’t great, but 13 TDs over the last 25 games are pretty nice. Seattle should provide plenty of opportunities for Minnesota to score.

Sit ‘em: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)

If you’re starting Todd Heap, you are doing so based on reputation only. He has only six TDs since the beginning of the 2007 season and has to face Indianapolis this weekend. You can find better options at TE.

Todd Heap Week 11 fantasy projection: 3 rec, 21 yards

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 11:

• Zach Miller has to be a sit. I know there is the potential there for a big week every now and then, but you have to wade through 1-catch efforts like last week to get to it. Not worth it.
• John Carlson is talented, but has only 12 catches over the last four games and will undoubtedly be used more as a blocker this week to slow down Minnesota’s pass rush.

Week 11 Start ‘em, Sit ‘em Picks: Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘em: Green Bay Packers D/ST (vs San Francisco)

The Packers would have had a shutout last week against Dallas were not for a garbage TD late. I know that the Packers’ O has struggled at times this year, and that their D has given up points at times, but this D has playmakers (namely, Charles Woodson) and is still worthy of starting most weeks.

A matchup this week against San Francisco is very advantageous. Sure, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis scare you, but I’ll take my chances against a team quarterbacked by Alex Smith.

Green Bay Packers D/ST Week 11 fantasy projection: 17 pts or less, 3 sacks, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:

• I’d feel bad stating the obvious and telling you to start Cincinnati (@Oak), Pittsburgh (@KC), and New Orleans (at TB) this week because it seems too obvious…but start ‘em all.
• Don’t you have to like Philly’s D knowing that they are going up against Jay Cutler in a primetime game? Get ready for some INTs!

Sit ‘em: Miami Dolphins D/ST (vs Carolina)

Miami has a solid defense, but they are missing the impact that Joey Porter made last year. Also, Carolina has its running game rolling again and Jake Delhomme is starting to protect the football. I think that these two strong running teams could put up more points than you might expect this Thursday.

Miami Dolphins D/ST Week 11 fantasy projection: 21 pts or more, 2 sacks, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:

• I’m also not a big fan of Carolina. They are much better at stopping the pass than they are at stopping the run.
• Sit the Jets until further notice. They are really struggling defensively and now face the Patriots. Not a good mix.

Good luck in Week 11 everyone. I may get behind answering questions early in the week, but I promise to try my best to be totally caught up by Friday.

Thanks to everyone for their support of our fantasy content. It’s fun to write on a weekly basis, and hopefully it’s helping your teams into the playoffs.

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* – Jamaal Charles photo credit: Top Fantasy Football

* – Ricky Williams photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images via About.com

Well, in the fantasy football world we are now in Week 10, which means that it’s “crunch time.”

Including this week you are looking at four more weeks to either maintain your current dominating lead or go on a tear and enter the playoffs hot.

Who should you be playing and benching now that we’re about to hit the stretch run? You’ve come to the right place. We discuss names like SJax, Thomas Jones, and Zach Miller below.

But first, a quick look back.

In Week 9, we learned that rookie quarterback Josh Freeman can play. Freeman exploded onto the scene by throwing for 205 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT. Wondering what to do with Freeman? Click this link for PFI’s Week 10 Sleepers and Waiver Wire Steals.

Week 9 also gave us yet another huge game out of the Titans running back Chris Johnson and Co. Has anyone noticed that the Titans are undefeated since inserting Vince Young into the starting lineup?

In addition, Cedric Benson continued to be a franchise back as he and the Bengals rolled the Ravens, making the Bengals 4-0 against the AFC North!

Going into Week 10, we have injuries to deal with and bye weeks for only two teams, the Giants and the Texans. PFI does not focus on the obvious for who to play and bench; rather, we attack the questionable players to add insight into your starting line ups.

Quarterbacks

Click this link for PFI’s Play em or Bench em QB Advice

Running Backs

Steven Jackson, Rams – Week 10: Play him Even with a difficult match up this week versus the Saints, Jackson is the Rams’ ONLY source of offense. This is a great back stuck on a miserable offense. In his last two games, Jackson has 283 rushing yards and a TD. He has the ball in his hands 25 to 30 times a game, picking up yardage through the air out of the backfield as well.

Ray Rice, Ravens – Week 10: Play him The Browns are back on the field this week, which is great for fantasy owners who have players on the Ravens. Fresh off of a non-productive game against the Bengals, the Ravens will be eager to get back on track by taking their frustrations out on the NFL’s whipping post, the Cleveland Browns.

Thomas Jones, Jets – Week 10: Play him Jones has been on fire his last three games. He had 22, 26 and 27 carries per game over that stretch, totaling 433 rushing yards and 2 TD’s. The Jets are a run first team, and with the loss of Leon Washington, Jones’s workload increased.

Other great match ups for stud backs this week are Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner and Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers

Click this link for PFI’s Play em or Bench em WR advice

Tight Ends

Zach Miller, Raiders – Week 10: Play him Playing the Chiefs will be one of JaMarcus Russell’s best chances of the season to have decent fantasy numbers. Russell’s favorite and only capable target this year has been Zach Miller, who is quietly having a good year on a terrible team.

Greg Olsen, Bears – Week 10: Play him Greg Olsen has entered the building! Olsen had 3 TD’s last week, and Jay Cutler has now learned that his most gifted receiver on his team plays at the tight end position. I look for good production out of Olsen for the remainder of the season.

Kellen Winslow, Bucs – Week 10: Play him With Josh Freeman under center using his athletic abilities to extend plays, Winslow will find openings in the defenses; all Freeman has to do is find him. If these two develop any chemistry together, Winslow will have a nice remainder of the season and a bright future in Tampa.

Other must starts are Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Brent Celek (since McNabb has been targeting him over the past two weeks).

Defenses

Play ‘em – Broncos, Vikings, Titans, Saints, Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens.

Bench ‘em – Colts, Patriots, Bengals, 49ers, Cowboys and Packers.

Check out ProFootballinsight’s entire Play ‘em / Bench ‘em for Week 10 by clicking here!

Any questions? Comment at the end of the page and I will get back with you!

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* – Steven Jackson photo credit: Evan Kessler Dot Com

• Check out PFI’s Mid-Season Fantasy Football Awards!
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• Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight
• Senior Fantasy Football Writer / MidwestSportsFans.com
• Kurt@ProFootballinsight.net

]]> http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/11/week-10-play-bench-steven-jackson-thomas-jones-zach-miller-olsen-winslow-fantasy/feed/ 6 http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/11/fantasy-football-week-9-start-em-sit-em-lineup-advice-projections-favre-garrard-charles-portis-collie-calvin-johnson-carlson/ http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/11/fantasy-football-week-9-start-em-sit-em-lineup-advice-projections-favre-garrard-charles-portis-collie-calvin-johnson-carlson/#comments Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:08:44 +0000 Jerod http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/?p=6513

Week 9 was very interesting for me from a real and fantasy picks perspective.

I went to sleep last night thinking I’d lost by 0.5 points in one league because of Miles Austin’s one catch. But, as so often happens in leagues with IDPs, the stats had changed by Monday morning and I led by 3.5. I’m hoping this holds up once the totals become final tomorrow.

From a picks perspective, last week was unique in that I really went out on a limb picking David Garrard over Matt Schaub. Then the defense opposing Schaub (Indy) lost two key starters and I issued a change to my recommendation regarding the Texans’ QB.

And then, naturally, Schaub went out and had a pedestrian day (311 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) that did not eclipse what Garrard was able to do against Kansas City (264 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 29 yards rushing).

In hindsight, I should have stuck with my guns; but, the truth is that I did stick with my principles in issuing my Schaub retraction. It was the right decision. Remember, we’re trying to predict a game in which Chris Chambers can be one of the top scorers at WR during the same week he got cut by San Diego and ended up in Kansas City.

Without much rhyme or reason, all you’ve got is your principles. My principles have me above .500 and in playoff contention in all six of my leagues.

And this is what I always tell people who ask me for advice on tough questions: what are your princples? Go with them.

And if you don’t have them, get them. I’ll be happy to help if I can.

Before we get to the Week 10 start ‘ems and sit ‘ems, here is a little love for one of our favorite content sponsors, Sadler’s Smokehouse:

Certain content on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.

Support MSF by visiting the Sadler’s Smokehouse website: Sadler’s Smokehouse

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As we always do, here is a quick look back at Week 9 to keep myself accountable for my picks:

• Start ‘em hits: Vincent Jackson, SD; Brent Celek, PHI; Seattle D/ST
• Start ‘em misses: Jamaal Charles, KC;
• Sit ‘em hits: Hakeem Nicks, NY; New York Giants D/ST; Knowshon Moreno, DEN
• Sit ‘em misses: Greg Olsen, CHI (HUGE MISS!!! SORRY!!!!);
• Ughs: Matt Shaub and David Garrard; honestly, these guys were basically just middle of the road guys and don’t deserve to be classified as hits or misses.

Now let’s break down the Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks. Remember to sit your Texans and Giants, as both teams are off this week.

Fantasy Football

Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘em: Brett Favre, Minnesota (vs Detroit)

Ladies and gentleman, this is what you call a no-brainer. I know that Brett Favre has been dealing with some injury issues concerning his groin, but I honestly don’t care. In fact, I would not be surprised if Favre only plays 2-3 quarters in this game, but, again, I honestly don’t care.

Here is what matters to me:

• Brett Favre has thrown 16 TDs and only three INTs on the year; plus, he’s coming off of a bye and should be rested and ready to go. And by the way, his TD:INT ratio is 8:1 at home.
• Detroit is 31st in the NFL against the pass and has given up 19 TDs.

What is there not to love? Start Favre and enjoy three TDs in the first half as the Vikings roll.

Brett Favre Week 10 fantasy projection: 225 yards passing, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• Joe Flacco is taking on the Browns. You could do worse.
• Drew Brees is playing St. Louis, but if you need this article to tell you to start Brees you should have your team taken away from you.
• Tony Romo is a must-start right now. He’s playing great football and while he may not be putting up the WOW numbers, he is consistently giving you solid production. Get him in your lineup against Green Bay unless you’ve got a really good alternative.

Sit ‘em: David Garrard, Jacksonville (at New York Jets)

There are obvious sit ‘ems, and then there are obvious sit ‘ems. Here are your numbers:

• The Jets are second in the NFL, giving up only 165.2 yards per game. They also have only allowed five TD passes all year (they shut out Drew Brees, remember) and have seven picks.
• The Jets are coming off of a bye and playing at home. They’ve had to listen to Rex Ryan’s craziness all week…I think they’ll be riled up.
• David Garrard has only six TD passes on the season and all of them have come at home.

Seriously, what more do you need to know? David Garrard is a guy I’ve been counting on all year in one league and I’m considering starting Felix Jones over him. That’s how little faith I have in Garrard to do anything against the Jets this weekend.

Honestly, I hope not too many of you are counting on Garrard as your starter in a 1-QB league, but I know that many people with Garrard as their second QB in 2-QB leagues will be wondering about his prospects for this week. I think that if Garrard is your option, this is a very good week to break the principle of always playing a second QB in an open flex spot.

David Garrard Week 10  fantasy projection: 205 yards passing, 0 TD, 1 INT, 40 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• Kyle Orton is coming off a short week and facing Washington’s very good pass D. Sit him.
• Vince Young is still not worthy of starting, in case you were wondering. This week the Titans face the Bills, who are a sieve against the run but who have only given up six TD passes all year long.
• Carson Palmer is facing Pittsburgh’s terrific D. If you have another option, I’d consider it depending on that option’s matchup.

Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘em: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City (at Oakland)

Yes, I know that I’m picking Jamaal Charles as my start ‘em RB for the second week in a row. And yes, I realize that he was a total dud last week. But I am undeterred and recommending him wholeheartedly for the following reasons:

• Kansas City released Larry Johnson today, meaning that Charles is guaranteed to continue seeing his role expand.
• Even though his cumulative totals were not great last week, Charles still averaged 6.0 yards per carry and caught three passes. Yes, nine touches pissed me off too, but I expect it to increase this week.
• Oakland sucks, we know that. But they especially suck against the run, giving up 161 yards rushing per game and 13 rushing TDs on the season.

I do think that Kolby Smith will get some carries as well, but I still look at Charles as the best guy to own because of his career YPC average and pass catching ability. I promise that if Charles lays an egg this week that I’ll stop recommending him, but I am putting my money where my mouth is and starting Charles in every league in which I own him.

Jamaal Charles Week 10 fantasy projection: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD, 55 yards receiving

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• Laurence Maroney has scored in three straight games and Indy gives up more rushing TDs than they do passing TDs.
• Ray Rice is a weekly start, but just in case you were considering benching him, he’s facing Cleveland this week. Unless you’re deciding between Rice and Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson, you start Ray Rice.
• Chester Taylor is a sneaky good start if you’re hurt by the Texans/Giants bye. Minnesota will probably blow out Detroit and will no doubt want to rest Adrian Peterson in the 4th quarter. Especially in a PPR league, I’d consider Taylor.

Sit ‘em: Clinton Portis, Washington (vs Denver)

Portis left last week’s game against Atlanta with a concussion and is already considered doubtful for this Sunday’s matchup with Denver. I am listing Portis here to take all of the suspense out of your decision: even if Portis somehow plays, sit him.

Denver is third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (although that will probably change after Monday night against Pittsburgh) and had given up only three rushing TDs heading into Week 9. Thus, Week 10 would not present a good matchup for Clinton Portis even if he was completely healthy. Just stick him on your bench and don’t agonize over this one even if his condition improves by week’s end.

Clinton Portis Week 10 fantasy projection: 0 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• I know that Portis is kind of a cop-out considering the fact that he likely won’t play anyway, so here is the one I’ll count when I tally up my successes/failures next week: Julius Jones. I know he was great in Week 9, but that was at home against Detroit. Seattle is on the road this week in Arizona, which has given up only five rushing TDs all year. Plus, Jones is a notoriously crappy player on the road. Sit him!
• Kevin Smith isn’t even taking advantage of plum matchups this year. I have zero faith in him against Minnesota, especially when the Lions will probably be down and throwing all game.
• I really hope this goes without saying by now, but sit Jamal Lewis. Baltimore’s D is still in the top 10 against the run and Cleveland simply can’t get Lewis into position for goalline carries.

Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘em: Calvin Johnson, Detroit (at Minnesota)

No, MegaTron is frustratingly not an obvious must-start anymore. Still, despite his two-catch return from injury last week, and what appeared to be a slight rift between he and his QB on the sidelines, I like Johnson this week. Yes, his talent has a lot to do with it, but there is something else that has a lot more to do with it:

Detroit will be down early and forced to throw the ball a lot.

The Lions are, simply put, in a completely different stratosphere from the Vikings. Minnesota is a bona fide Super Bowl contender, whereas Detroit will be lucky to get to three wins. I think the Vikings will have this game wrapped up by halftime, which will provide a great opportunity for Matt Stafford and Johnson to work on their timing and rapport.

Would you really be surprised to see the two connect for one or two garbage time TDs in the 4th quarter? I wouldn’t. Stafford and Johnson are the Lions’ future; the second half of this game will be all about the two of them getting on the same page.

Calvin Johnson Week 10 fantasy projections: 9 catches, 125 yards, TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 10:

• If I owned Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, or Percy Harvin I would start them all.
• Nate Burleson and TJ Houshmandzadeh should be good starts as well. Arizona is 29th against the pass and the Seahawks will probably be down early and unable to run the ball.
• Derrick Mason only had three catches last week, and only has seven over his last two games, but the Ravens are playing Cleveland Monday night. Everyone on the Ravens’ O should get back on track.

Sit ‘em: Austin Collie, Indianapolis (vs New England)

Calling “sit” on an Indy WR may not seem like such a great choice, but there is both a gut feeling and stats/logic behind it.

• Gut feeling: the stakes get raised when it’s Indy v New England (i.e. Manning v Brady). I think Peyton is going to be even more predisposed to go to his trusted hands in this game. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, and even Pierre Garcon have been with Manning longer than Collie. This ‘aint St. Louis the Colts are playing, if you know what I mean, and Manning is going to be extra focused (i.e. anal and less willing to throw to a rookie).
• Stats/logic: The Patriots are 4th in the NFL against the pass, giving up only 179.4 yards passing per game. Yes, they have allowed nine TDs, and yes I do expect Peyton to have a big game, but do you really trust a rookie against a Bill Belichick defense? If I had a good alternative, I wouldn’t mind taking it.

Collie has had a very good season thus far for a rookie. He’s already caught four TDs, which places him ahead of many veterans that are considered to be elite. But Indy faced a huge test last week against Houston and Peyton only found Collie twice. In comparison, Pierre Garcon had five catches.

Trust is huge with Peyton Manning and the truth is that Collie simply hasn’t had enough time to build it to be counted on in a game as monumental as every Colts-Pats game is. If you have somewhere else to go (like Garcon), do it this week.

Austin Collie Week 10 fantasy projection: 3 rec, 31 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 10:

• Obviously I am not high on either Mike Sims-Walker or Torry Holt this week. I do think MSW will get 5-6 catches, so he might be startable as a WR#3 or flex.
• Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are guys I’d consider sitting, Royal for sure and Marshall depending on who else you have. They are facing Washington, which is allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL and less than a TD per game.
• Roy Williams is still not a guy I’m buying…yet. I want to see him get some targets in the red zone first. Yes, GB has given up 16 TDs this year, so you could do worse, but continue to be wary of Roy in TD-focused leagues until he proves that he can reach paydirt.

Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Start ‘em: John Carlson, Seattle (at Arizona)

Umm…did you see what Greg Olsen did to Arizona last week? That would be three touchdowns.

John Carlson is coming off of a six-catch game and will undoubtedly be a key target for Matt Hasselbeck in a game in which I expect Seattle to be down early. Carlson only had seven catches in the three weeks preceding Week 9, but he should be a very solid start in Week 10.

John Carlson Week 10 fantasy projection: 6 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 10:

• Vernon Davis is a must start now and I list him here as a way to gloat about the fact that I was right on him in the preseason and when he struggled through the first few weeks of the year.
• Visanthe Shiancoe needs to be in your lineup with Minnesota taking on Detroit.
• Kellen Winslow is facing a weak Miami pass D and we all know that tight ends are the best friends of rookie QBs.

Sit ‘em: Fred Davis, Washington (vs Denver)

I know that Fred Davis had eight catches and a TD in Week 7, but he came back to earth in Week 9 with only two receptions and 26 yards. Facing Denver’s D in Week 10, and with constant turmoil on the Washington O, I’m not putting my trust in a guy who should be backing up Chris Cooley.

Fred Davis Week 10 fantasy projection: 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 10:

• Tony Schefler is facing Washington’s top-ranked pass defense.
• Ben Watson remains far too inconsistently targeted for my tastes.

Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘em: Baltimore Ravens D/ST (at Cleveland)

The D/ST category is where it’s really nice to have the Browns back in action. I know that Baltimore’s D has struggled the last few weeks, but they are facing Cleveland this week. Ed Reed always seem to have a big play when these two teams play, and Eric Mangini isn’t even naming a starting QB until Wednesday. The Browns are a disaster and you should take advantage.

Baltimore D/ST Week 10 fantasy projection: 10 points or less, 3 TOs, 2 sacks, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 10:

• Denver’s D didn’t have a great showing against Pittsburgh in Week 9, but they face Washington’s terrible offense in Week 10. Solid start.
• Miami’s D isn’t the greatest in the world by any means, but they are facing a rookie QB in Josh Freeman that is going to have his ups and downs. You could do worse.

Sit ‘em: Indianapolis D/ST and New England D/ST (facing eachother)

I said it in this week’s NFL picks and TV schedule post, and I believe it: the Colts-Patriots game is going to be a shootout. Do you really want to start the Colts D without Bob Sanders going against Tom Brady, Randy Moss. and Wes Welker? And do you really want to start New England’s D with Peyton Manning on the other side, motivated by the fact that he’s lining up against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick?

I would want to stay as far away from this game as possible. You should too.

Indianapolis and New England D/ST Week 10 fantasy projection: lots of points, very few turnovers

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 10:

• San Francisco did not fare well against the Titans last week and I’m not optimistic about their chances to shut down Jay Cutler. The 49ers have been fading as of late, while Chicago’s offense is actually playing pretty well.
• Atlanta does not stop the run particularly well, while the Carolina Panthers are very good at running the ball. Honestly, I think this game will be high scoring; I’d prefer not to start either D.

And there you have it. The Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em post is in the books; and unlike last week, I don’t foresee writing an addendum to it on Friday.

As always, the comment section is below for your questions. We had over 150 comments on last week’s post, which I believe set a record. I wonder if we can get to 200 one of these weeks…?

I’m counting on you MSF fantasy nation. Let’s get to 200!

Best of luck in Week 10. And remember: if you’re out of the playoff race, don’t quit on your league. Keep setting your rosters like you’re fighting for the last playoff spot. You would want your leaguemates to do it for you, and it builds your fantasy karma for future seasons.

And yes, I believe in fantasy karma.

In fact, I believe it’s why I woke up this morning to a W (as described above) after going to sleep last night lamenting a loss.

I never quit on a league, and you shouldn’t either…not matter how many games out you are.

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* – Brett Favre photo credit: Daily Mail

* – Jamaal Charles photo credit: Top Fantasy Football

* – Calvin Johnson photo credit: The Sports Union

Earlier this week in my start em, sit em post, I recommended that you should start David Garrard over Matt Shaub in Week 9. I’ll let you read the post to get the full detail of the reasoning, but it boiled down to the following two points:

#1 – the Colts have the 7th best pass defense in the league in terms of yards given up (180.1 yards per game) and have given up the fewest touchdown passes (three). Thus, I looked at Matt Schaub as a shaky start.

#2 – David Garrard and his Jaguars are at home this week taking on the Kansas City Chiefs and their crappy pass defense. Garrard is only playable when he’s at home and this seems like about as plum a matchup as you’ll get if you’re a Garrard owner.

There is a problem though. A couple of them. And I’m changing my vote to Schaub over Garrard for Week 9.

Here are the two issues:

1. First off, the more I’ve thought about this, specifically as it relates to a Schaub-Garrard debate, the more I’ve begun to question my own line of thinking in voting for Garrard.
2. Second, and most importantly, Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders have both been declared out since I wrote my post, thus severely diminishing the Colts’ ability to defend the pass, at least in theory.

In regards to the first issue, while I do believe there were significant red flags about Schaub for Week 9 (0 TDs, 2 INTs last week; Indy’s prowess against the pass) I overlooked the likelihood that this game will turn into a shootout.

We know that Indianapolis has a terrific passing offense led by Peyton Manning, and Houston’s secondary is not scaring anyone. The Texans will likely be throwing the ball a lot just to try and match Peyton and the Colts TD for TD.

Still though, if the Colts’ secondary was really as good as its stats suggest, the threat of a shootout still wouldn’t make Schaub a must-start.

But take a closer look at the Colts’ opponents this year. It suggests that their pass defense numbers may be as much a function of who they’ve played as it is evidence that they have a dominant secondary:

• Jacksonville – 19th in passing yards, 5 passing TDs on the season
• Miami – 29th, 5 TDs
• Arizona – 8th, 11 TDs
• Seattle – 17th, 12TDs
• Tennessee – 26th, 6 TDs
• St. Louis – 24th, 6 TDs
• San Francisco – 22nd, 9TDs

All of Indy’s opponents except for one has been in the lower half of the league in passing offense. Surely their one game against Indy contributed to that, but each team has six or seven other games of stats woven into those numbers.

I think it’s safe to say that Indianapolis’ current pass defense rankings are a little inflated. And now their starting CB plus their former Defensive Player of the Year safety have been removed from the mix. With Matt Schaub and Houston boasting the league’s third most prolific passing attack, we may see those Indy pass defense numbers take a hit this week.

Now, none of this changes my thoughts on Garrard. He is still a good start and I expect a solid day from him, with at least one TD and the potential for two or three. However, I most certainly would rank Matt Schaub above him and I am officially changing my outlook for Schaub to a start ‘em for Week 9.

Here are my revised Matt Schaub Week 9 fantasy projections: 315 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

My apologies to anyone who benched Schaub based on my Tuesday post. I take 50% of the blame because I do believe that my initial thinking was somewhat flawed, but I would not have changed the call were it not for the depletion that has occurred in Indy’s secondary over the past 48 hours.

It’s a good lesson in the fluidity of fantasy football recommendations and information. Everything is in flux until Sunday about 15 minutes before kickoff. It’s just the nature of the beast.

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* – Matt Schaub photo credit: ColtsAllDay.com

Crunch time is upon us.

As enter Week 9 of the fantasy football season, some of us are breathing easy with playoff spots all but assured, some of us are struggling with each decision in our quest to improve playoff positioning, and others are desperately trying to make a late season surge just to have a chance.

And then there are others who are out of it and just playing out the string, although I doubt too many of those owners are bothering to scour start ‘em, sit ‘em posts in preparation for this week.

For the majority of us still scratching and clawing for every point and every win, here is your weekly start ‘em, start ‘em breakdown…and then the endless string of Q&A in the comment section.

Here’s a quick teaser: who would you rather start in Week 9 between Matt Schaub and David Garrard? The answer might not be as clear as you may think.

Before we get to the Week 9 start ‘ems and sit ‘ems, here is a little love for one of our favorite content sponsors, Sadler’s Smokehouse:

Certain content on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.

Support MSF by visiting the Sadler’s Smokehouse website: Sadler’s Smokehouse

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And now, a quick retrospective on our hits and misses from Week 8:

• Start ‘em hits: Matt Forte, Miles Austin, Chicago Bears D
• Start ‘em misses: Kyle Orton, Greg Olsen
• Sit ‘em hits: Eli Manning, Kevin Walter, Philadelphia Eagles D
• Sit ‘em misses: Jonthan Stewart, Brent Celek

Not a dominant performance by any means (especially the miss on Jonathan Stewart…damnit!) but solid enough. As usual, my most accurate and useful advice comes in the Q&A throughout the week, so be sure to use the comment section for your questions.

Fantasy Football

Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘em: David Garrard, Jacksonville (vs Kansas City)

I think I almost pretty much for sure absolutely have myself convinced that putting David Garrard here isn’t just wishful thinking.

Note: You should know, in the interest of full disclosure, that I own David Garrard in the league I’ve been in for eight years with my buddies. It’s a 2-QB league, I’m 4-4, and I desperately need a win in Week 9.

Hence, I am desperate for a good, even just a decent, week from Garrard. Can he produce? Well, he does have the following legitimate, objective things going for him:

• Kansas City is 29th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 252.1 yards per game. They have allowed 13 passing TDs and gotten only three INTs.
• Garrard has thrown five TDs and three INTs in his three home games this season. He has not thrown a TD on the road all year!
• Garrard’s three highest yardage games have come at home.

So, theoretically, this should be about as good a matchup as Garrard could have. But Week 6 (home against St. Louis) was supposed to be a great matchup too, and that didn’t turn out so well from a TD standpoint.

Understand that I am listing David Garrard here very tentatively. He will start for me because I have no other options; but, by way of comparison, I would not start Garrard over my #1 QB Philip Rivers. Nor would I even consider it.

I am, however, holding out hope that Garrard can have a top-10 week. It’s certainly possible. But just know what you’re getting yourself into if you decide to follow my advice on this one.

David Garrard Week 9 fantasy projection: 295 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 30 yards rushing

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Tony Romo is on fire right now and I think you have to start him, even at Philadelphia. For the record, I’d start McNabb too.
• Philip Rivers is facing a Giants’ D that is giving up big numbers to every QB is plays now.
• Matt Hasselbeck has struggled the last two weeks, but a home game against Detroit should get he and the Seattle offense back on track.

Sit ‘em: Matt Schaub, Houston (at Indianapolis)

Update 11/7: I have revised my Matt Schaub Week 9 analysis based on more informed thinking and new information. I’d take into account what I’ve written below, make sure you read the revised recommendation and projection as well.

How do you sit a guy averaging 2 TD passes a game? Well, when you are faced with these daunting facts you have to at least consider it:

• The Colts have given up the fewest passing TDs in the NFL (three) and are 7th in yardage (180.1 yards per game).
• Schaub is without his security blanket, Owen Daniels, and finished last week with zero TDs and two INTs after Daniels missed most of the game. (Granted, much of this was because the Texans took advantage of the Bills’ poor run defense, but still, losing Daniels hurts.)
• Schaub has only played one game against Indy in his career and he threw one TD against two INTs.

Okay, so here’s the million dollar question: would I start Disgusting David Garrard over Marvelous Matt Schaub? Could I really pull the trigger on such a move, just based on matchups?

If I was in a must-win situation, with my entire season riding on the decision, yes…I think I would. In a situation that requires a higher potential reward, regardless of the risk, I think Garrard’s potential at home against KC is greater than Schaub’s at Indy. Remember, the Colts are only 17th against the run and big plays against Indy often come on the ground. I expect the Texans to ride Steve Slaton and Ryan Moats, however they decide to split the carries.

Matt Schaub Week 9 fantasy projection: 235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

So I’d do it…but I’d be nervous as hell all week and all Sunday morning and all through the early games. I would love to hear dissenting opinions on this one in the comment section. In fact, I’m slapping a poll up here to see if anyone actually agrees with me on this one:

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Eli Manning stays here until he has a good game. I’m just not buying a turnaround right now.
• Vince Young should not fool you into thinking he’s starting material with one decent game at home against Jacksonville’s terrible D. He faces SF’s tough D that shut Peyton Manning out last week.

Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘em: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City (at Jacksonville)

Four of the six worst run defenses in the NFL are on byes this week (Rams, Raiders, Browns, Bills). Guess which defense, formerly known for its run-stopping prowess, is fourth worst among teams taking the field in Week 9…

If you couldn’t guess based on who I chose as this week’s start ‘em running back, it’s the Jaguars. Here is your statistical basis for starting Jamaal Charles, who is filling in as the starter now that Larry Johnson has been suspended:

• Jacksonville gives up 128.3 rushing yards per game (25th overall).
• In 90 career carries, Jamaal Charles has a 5.3 yard per carry average.
• In addition to his high per carry average, Charles averages almost one reception for every two carries. Thus, if you’re in a PPR league, Charles could have extra value.

It’s always risky starting a player who has never carried a full load before, but did you see what Chris Johnson did to Jacksonville last week? I’m not saying Charles is anywhere near as good as CJ, but he’s a similar type back who could really cause the Jags problems if he can get in space.

I expect Jamaal Charles to get a legitimate shot to be the feature back this week. Based on the matchup, I expect him to succeed.

Jamaal Charles Week 9 fantasy projection: 85 yards rushing, 1 TD, 5 receptions, 40 yards receiving

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• Clinton Portis and his old legs are coming off a bye week and face the Falcons’ questionable run D that is coming off a short week.
• Brandon Jacobs is coming around and will become more important to the Giants with Eli hurting and Ahmad Bradshaw hobbled. Keep him in your lineup.
• Julius Jones is at home and facing Detroit. This is the rare occasion where I will recommend starting him.

Sit ‘em: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Pittsburgh)

I am a big fan of Knowshon Moreno’s, but not this week. The Steelers are #1 in the NFL against the run, have given up only two rushing TDs all year, and Moreno’s carries have gone from 21 to 18 to 10 over the last three weeks. He’s also not adding much in the passing game.

Moreno is a possible flex play only because he’s an RB and could score, but I’d really like to avoid using him if it were me.

Knowshon Moreno Week 9 fantasy projection: 35 yards rushing, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• I know I completely missed on this one the last time Baltimore played Cincinnati, but you might want to at least consider sitting Cedric Benson against Baltimore. The Ravens have given up only four rushing TDs all year and looked refreshed last week after their bye against Denver.
• Steve Slaton, sadly, looks like a sit right now until we learn more about how the carries will be split between he and Ryan Moats. Damnit Slaton.
• As much as it pains me to say this about my preseason sleeper, I think you have to sit Felix Jones right now because he’s just not getting enough touches. He’s a possible flex play as a bye week fill-in, but that’s about it.

Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘em: Vincent Jackson, San Diego (at New York Giants)

I hope that more than a few of you look at this one and roll your eyes, thinking, “Well duh! Who would sit Vincent Jackson?” I agree with you. But week after week Vincent Jackson ends up being a name that people ask me about.

Folks, listen closely: START HIM!

Not only did San Diego recently cut Chris Chambers — in large part because Jackson has become such a clear go-to WR for Philip Rivers that young guys like Malcolm Floyd have been able to develop around him — but Jackson has caught a TD in three consecutive games. He’s also had over 100 yards in two straight games.

And guess what…his matchup is solid in Week 9. The Chargers face the Giants, who are still 3rd in the NFL in yards passing allowed per game (165), but who have given up a whopping 12 passing TDs.

Don’t be scared because of the reputation of the Giants’ D. Play Vincent Jackson, and do so every week. He is an outstanding young player currently in the midst of one of the hottest stretches in his career. Plus, he has a solid, consistent QB. You can’t go wrong.

Vincent Jackson Week 9 fantasy projection: 6 rec, 115 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 9:

• I know he struggled in Week 9, but I think you have to give Mike Sims-Walker another shot. I know I will be…and this is in the same league I have David Garrard. (Oh Lord, please help me!)
• Nate Burleson is like a poor man’s Vincent Jackson; and by that I mean that too many people ask me whether or not they should start him on a weekly basis. Yes, usually you should, and especially this week with the Seahawks at home against Detroit.
• Jeremy Maclin is the rare rookie that I will recommend as a start. The Cowboys are 22nd in the league against the pass (237.1 yards per game) and have given up 12 TDs. I like Maclin to produce well in a Sunday night shootout in Philly.

Sit ‘em: Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants (vs San Diego)

As stated above while discussing Maclin, I don’t usually recommend rookies to start. Hakeem Nicks is a rookie who actually been pretty consistent, but I’m not a big fan this weekend. His QB is injured, he’s facing the #7 pass defense in the league, and he’s averaging less than four catches per game.

Nicks has a bright future, and is already proving to be a pretty solid red zone target, but I am very wary of Giants WRs right now until they get their offense back on track.

Hakeem Nicks Week 9 fantasy projection: 3 rec, 49 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 9:

• Michael Crabtree has had two solid starts in a row, but I still don’t trust him or his offense to produce TDs from the WR position. Tennessee’s secondary has been bad this year, but they are getting healthier and played better last weekend.
• Ted Ginn Jr. is still a guy you don’t want to start. Relying on return TDs is never a good idea, and right now that is the only place where Ginn is providing value.
• Antonio Bryant is a very talented receiver, but has only four catches in his last two games, mainly because of the inexperience at the QB position. Green Bay is solid against the pass. I’d try to avoid Bryant.

Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Start ‘em: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs Dallas)

And I’m back on the bandwagon again!

Yes, you would be correct to say that my analysis of Brent Celek on a weekly basis has been quite schizophrenic. That’s because Celek’s production has been schizophrenic. He was great when Kevin Kolb was playing QB, but Donovan McNabb seemed to forget that Celek was on the team.

Not last week.

Celek had a solid day, catching four passes for 61 yards and a TD. I am tentatively excited that Donovan McNabb will continue to look Celek’s way, and I think the Sunday nighter between Philly and Dallas could end up being an up-and-down-the-field type game. If so, look for Celek to take advantage and find his way into the end zone again.

Brent Celek Week 9 fantasy projection: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 9:

• Tony Scheffler seems like a good start to me because I think Kyle Orton will have to find his security blanket often; plus, there won’t be much room to run for the Broncos.
• Mr. Inconsistent Mercedes Lewis could be a sneaky-good play against Kansas City’s porous pass defense this week…but only if you’re really in a jam.

Sit ‘em: Greg Olsen, Chicago (vs Arizona)

Honestly, no TE really jumped out at me as a clear sit candidate. I put Greg Olsen here because he’s failed to catch a touchdown in three straight games and the Chicago passing offense seems a bit out of sync right now. If Olsen is your only TE, go ahead and start him. But I personally would not mind being able to sit him until Jay Cutler breaks out of his funk.

Greg Olsen Week 9 fantasy projection: 4 rec, 39 yards

Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams

Start ‘em: Seattle D/ST (vs Detroit)

Seattle’s defense is what it is: a middle of the road unit that isn’t really great at anything. But their Week 9 matchup also is what it is: a terrible offense from Detroit that may, once again, be without its only real weapon, WR Calvin Johnson.

Seattle is currently tied for 7th in the NFL sacks and has played pretty well at home against subpar competition, including shutouts against St. Louis and Jacksonville. This is a good week to roll the dice on the Seahawks, who would sneak their way into the top 5 overall this week because of their matchup.

Seattle D/ST Week 9 fantasy projection: 13 pts or less, 3 sacks, 3 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 9:

• Atlanta’s D isn’t great, but they are playing Washington next week.
• San Francisco’s D is a solid start against Vince Young and Tennessee.

Sit ‘em: New York Giants D/ST (vs San Diego)

Another week, and another sit ‘em recommendation for the Giants defense. They are really struggling right now, and San Diego has the firepower to make them struggle again. San Diego, in fact, has not scored less than 23 points this year.

New York Giants D/ST Week 9 fantasy projection: 24 pts or more, 3 sacks, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 9:

• I am not a huge fan of either Philly or Dallas for this week. I just have a feeling that their game Sunday night is going to be a shootout.
• I’d be wary of the Bears’ D. Arizona can score lots of points and has to be smarting after that surprising loss to Carolina.

And now…I leave it to you. Hopefully the advice above helped, and I certainly hope to be able to help out during the week answering your questions.

Some seasons will be salvaged this week, while others may fade into oblivion. Which side will you be on?

Good luck everyone!

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* – David Garrard photo credit: DavidGarrard.info

* – Matt Schaub photo credit: ColtsAllDay.com

Another crazy week of fantasy football is in the books.

Last week’s insanity included the fact that Joseph Addai threw for more touchdowns than Peyton Manning….Ryan Moats had 3 TD’s….Kurt Warner completds 5 passes to Panthers…

And T.O. actually scored a TD.

What does Week 9 have in store? First, the following teams are on a bye: Bills, Browns, Vikings, Jets, Raiders and Rams. Most of these teams being on a bye will not hurt fantasy owners too badly; I have an offensive starting ban on the Browns, Bills and Raiders which still has not been lifted.

For the teams that are taking the field, which QBs and D/ST units offer the best potential value in Week 9? Let’s investigate.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Play ‘Em, Bench ‘Em

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton-Broncos Bench him- Kyle Orton and the Broncos offense had a huge reality check last week in their first loss of the season facing the Baltimore Ravens. Orton finished with 141 yards passing with no TDs or INTs.

This week the Broncos face the Steelers. The Steelers are fresh off of a bye week, right after an enormous win over then-undefeated Minnesota. Orton’s stats should be similar, but add a few turnovers in his stats total.

Eli Manning-Giants Play Him- Eli is coming off of two poor fantasy football weeks based on his own standards that he set earlier in the year. Playing the Chargers this week should realign the stars for Manning and Co. The Chargers gave up 16 points to an Oakland team that could not score on some college teams.

Matt Hasselbeck-Seahawks Play Him- Last time I recommended starting Hasselbeck he burned me and the rest of the fantasy world. But opposite Hasselbeck this week is the Detroit Lions, and every time I recommended starting someone against the Lions, they explode.

Don’t believe me? Just look at my advice when I said to start Santana Moss and Jason Campbell. This was their most notable game of the year. Hasselbeck is coming off an average performance against the Cowboys, who are leaps and bounds defensively above the Lions.

There are obvious starts which I do not spend time on because I am giving you the credit you deserve to know that Donavan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and on and on are all must starts.

I will tell you, as I said that Vince Young would be starting, and productive, look for Jake Delhomme and his under 100 passing yard performance to place him in a back up role soon. If this does not happen, John Fox may be digging his own coaching grave in Carolina.

Defenses

Play Em- Steelers, Packers, Falcons, Saints, Patriots.

Bench Em- Broncos, Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, Panthers

Click here for PFI’s Running Back and Wide Receiver Advice!

Check out ProFootballinsight’s Mid-Season Fantasy Football Awards by clicking this link!

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight

Kurt@ProFootballinsight.net

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* – Eli Manning photo credit: A Round World Through Square Glasses

]]> http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/11/fantasy-play-em-bench-em-qbs-defenses-eli-manning-orton-hasselbeck/feed/ 0 http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/10/fantasy-football-midseason-awards-disappointments-surprises/ http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/10/fantasy-football-midseason-awards-disappointments-surprises/#comments Sat, 31 Oct 2009 23:14:57 +0000 fraschetti http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/?p=6100

We have now reached the NFL mid-season, and it is time for Pro Football Insight to issue their Fantasy Mid-Season Awards.

The 2009 season has definitely had its share of disappointments and surprises, so without further delay, onto the PFI awards.

PFI Biggest Disappointment Team

QB-Trent Edwards-Bills This award could have went to several QB’s, but Edwards was a run away winner for me. Edwards was always middle of the pack as far as being a fantasy QB, but with the off-season acquisition of Terrell Owens, along with an array of other proven wide receivers and running backs, Edwards’ stock soared in the off-season. Edwards, however, has played his worst football since taking the starting job from J.P. Losman his rookie year.

RB-Matt Forte-Bears By fantasy points alone, Forte is ranked 30th among fantasy running backs. Forte was a top 5 pick in most fantasy league drafts, and is playing like a 6th or 7th rounder. Forte’s season should not continue to be this disappointing. With that said, Forte will have to play out of his mind from here on out to justify his draft position this year.

WR-Terrell Owens-Bills Owens started the pre-season by receiving a key to the city of Buffalo from the Mayor…I think they are trying to change the locks! Not that it is Terrell’s fault; my QB bust Edwards will not get him the ball. Owens’ consecutive games with a catch streak was murdered by Edwards this year, and I can only imagine how many holes Owens has bitten through his tongue to not say what he is feeling! I can tell you this, he will not be crying and saying, “That’s my quarterback” to defend Edwards.

TE-Alge Crumpler-Titans Could anyone miss Michael Vick more than Crumpler? He looks like he morphed with two other people. It looks like a defensive lineman is running pass routes with Crumpler’s current size. There are 3rd string tight ends with more fantasy numbers than Crumpler has produced, which could not be more opposite than his yester-years of his playing days in Atlanta.

Kicker- Wait until next week and the kicker you thought sucked will make 5 field goals. Kickers are the top 32 kickers in the world in regards to field goals. If the offense gets the kicker within the 35, they are usually good as gold.

Defense-Titans Think they miss Albert Haynesworth yet? How else could you explain such a highly touted defense to currently be the second worst fantasy defense in the NFL? Well, when your offense does not score, it will hurt your defense, but this bad?

PFI’s “Where Did You Come From?” Award

Miles Austin-WR-Cowboys Although he was slighted above to Steve Smith for the Biggest Suprise WR Award, “Where in the hell did Miles Austin come from?” In two games, Austin reeled in 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TD’s.  His last two weeks have been insane, and if he is on your team, you don’t care where he came from, you just want his tear to continue!

Click this link to read the rest of the article which includes PFI’s Mid-Season MVP and PFI’s Biggest Suprise Team.

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight

Senior Fantasy Writer / MidwestSportsFans

Kurt@ProFootballinsight.net

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* – Trent Edwards / Terrell Owens photo credit: ESPN.com

It’s Friday morning, so let’s do our typical roundup of the most important injuries on the fantasy football landscape, going game-by-game down the Week 8 schedule.

There are some big names on the injury report this week, especially at the WR position where Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Anquan Boldin, and Jerricho Cotchery all are batting maladies.

Denver-Baltimore

Nothing pertinent here. Joe Flacco showed up on the injury report with an ankle, but he’s fine.

Houston-Buffalo

Andre Johnson Week 8 injury update/status: Johnson has been suffering from a lung contusion since last Sunday. He as officially listed on the Thursday injury report as being a limited participant, but everything out of Houston so far this week indicates that he should play. Check this one up until kickoff and have a replacement ready, but I think Andre will be good to go.

Trent Edwards probably will not dress on Sunday, but hopefully you weren’t considering using him anyway. If so, you’ve got issues. Major ones.

Cleveland-Chicago

There are no Browns players worthy of starting other than Jamal Lewis (and Jerome Harrison, if Lewis ever gets hurt again). Lewis is on the injury report with a wrist, but he’ll play and probably get most of the carries over the more explosive and dynamic Harrison. Go figure.

The Bears have some defensive players on the injury report, but should be close to full health on Sunday.

Seattle-Dallas

Matt Hasselbeck and Julius Jones are both on the injury report, but both participated fully in Thursday’s practice and will play.

Marion Barber is still dealing with a thumb injury, but it has not slowed him down in practice and he’ll be starting Sunday.

Detroit-St. Louis

Another week and another injury merry-go-round with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

Matt Stafford Week 8 injury update/status: Stafford and his 65.5 QB rating have practiced now for three consecutive days and he appears in line to start Sunday. He could be a decent play against the Rams’ porous defense in a game that could be high scoring. Or it could be low scoring. Or it could just completely suck (the most likely probability).

Calvin Johnson Week 8 injury update/status: Calvin Johnson did practice on Thursday, though only on a limited basis. He does appear in line to start on Sunday, but won’t be 100%. Still, with his QB back and the Rams on the other side of the field, you have to start him. Just check the last minute inactives list and make sure he’s not on it by surprise.

Minnesota-Green Bay

Brett Favre has a hip injury that has limited him in practice. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that he’ll be playing Sunday. Aaron Rodgers is also on the injury report. Again, I think he’ll play, don’t you?

Jermichael Finley Week 8 injury update/status: Finley, the Pack’s explosive TE, is batting a knee injury and most likely will be a GTD. Track his progress but have another starter ready to go.

Percy Harvin Week 8 injury update/status: Percy Harvin has missed practiced for the mysterious reason of “illness” yet again. The assumption is that he is dealing with migraines that reportedly plagued him earlier in the season. He has yet to miss a game, so I’d expect him to be out there, but this another one to track Sunday morning.

Bernard Berrian Week 8 injury update/status: Berrian is dealing with a hamstring issue, but did make it back to practice on Thursday. Sounds like he’ll be a GTD on Sunday.

Indianapolis-San Francisco

For those of you with Anthony Gonzalez, he’s not ready to come back yet. You’ll have to wait until next week, and probably should wait to see him in at least one game before starting him.

Reggie Wayne Week 8 injury update/status: The NFL’s most underrated player (my opinion) has not practiced this week while recovering from a strained groin. He will likely be a GTD and this one to watch as the weekend progresses. Indications seem to be point towards him playing, but have a replacement ready just in case.

Donald Brown Week 8 injury update/status: Brown has not practiced this week and could miss a couple of games with a shoulder injury.

New York-Miami

Ricky Williams is on the injury report with a thumb injury, but start him confidently. He’ll play, and did very well against the Jets earlier this season.

Jerricho Cotchery Week 8 injury update/status: All signs point towards Cotchery being back on the field Sunday. He has been practicing on a limited basis, but his hamstring is apparently doing well. The Dolphins should provide a nice matchup for Cotchery two, as they are currently starting two rookie CBs. To be safe, check the injury updates Sunday morning on this one.

San Diego-Oakland

Everyone looks good for the Chargers, while the Raiders are still without guys like Chaz Schilens and Darren McFadden. Not that you care, or should.

Jacksonville-Tennessee

Not a whole lot to see here. Nate Washington didn’t practice Thursday, but with Vince Young at QB you may want to sit your Titans WRs anyway. No, Jacksonville is not good against the pass, but I’d like to see what VY does before starting him or his WRs.

Carolina-Arizona

Jonathan Stewart has been a full participant in practice this week, so he should be good to go. Muhsin Muhammad and Dante Rosario did not practice Thursday, but how can you justify starting either one of them right now anyway? Until Jake Delhomme stops throwing picks, all Carolina WRs not named Steve Smith should be off limits.

Anquan Boldin Week 8 injury update/status: Things are looking a little concerning for Boldin owners this week, but it’s better than a lot of weeks. He is dealing with a right ankle injury, and although he’s participated in every practice this week, Boldin could be “limited” on Sunday (at least according to one report). He did play well last week — and he is Anquan Boldin after all — so I’d start him confidently. Just monitor this to ensure there are no setbacks.

Steve Breaston is also on the injury report, but should be fine for Sunday in his #3 role.

New York-Philadelphia

Ahmad Bradshaw Week 8 injury update/status: Ahmad Bradshaw is dealing with a cracked metatarsal in his right foot that will most likely linger throughout the season. He could even injure it further by playing. No matter, he’ll be out there. I’m a bit wary of this one, despite Bradshaw’s solid production this year. This could be a good week to take a wait-and-see approach with this injury.

Brian Westbrook Week 8 injury update/status: If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Westbrook sitting this week’s game out. He has yet to practice and the Eagles have a solid replacement in LeSean McCoy. You’ll have to track this up until gametime, but have someone ready for the likelihood that Westbrook does not go on Sunday.

DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin both are on the injury report but both practiced fully on Thursday. Expect them to play.

Atlanta-New Orleans

Nothing serious here. Jeremy Shockey’s on the injury report but is expected to play.

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* – Andre Johnson photo credit: AP Photo/Dave Einsel via Houston’s Clear Thinkers

* – Calvin Johnson photo credit: Top Fantasy Football

First of all, my apologies to anyone who asked questions in the comment section last week from Friday afternoon on. I was hoping I’d have time to get some of those answered once I got to Cleveland, but I did not.

I don’t have any more trips planned between now and the NFL playoffs, so that should not be a problem again.

Secondly, my apologies to anyone who started Jay Cutler and Greg Olsen last week. I really miscalculated how the Bears-Bengals game would go — as did most everybody — and had to take my medicine on that one.

Otherwise, Week 7 was relatively prosperous. The good: Laurence Maroney, Austin Collie, and the Patriots D/ST as starts; Donovan McNabb, Jerome Harrison, Zach Miller, and Steve Smith (Carolina…if you needed a TD) as sits. The bad: Cutler and Olsen obviously, and the Pittsburgh D as a sit.

Now let’s look forward and gaze into the crystal ball for Week 8. A little bit different format this week; hopefully you like it.

Fantasy Football

Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘em: Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos (at Baltimore Ravens)

Did you know that Baltimore is 23rd in the NFL against the pass and has surrendered nine touchdown passes on the season? And that Kyle Orton has throw two TDs in the each of the Broncos’ last three games? Denver is going to be able to score against Balitmore. Take advantage.

Kyle Orton Week 8 fantasy projection: 245 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 8:

• David Garrard is facing Tennessee’s 32nd ranked pass defense (19 passing TDs allowed).
• Matt Hasselbeck should be fresh coming off a bye, more in sync with his WRs, and is facing Dallas’ 22nd ranked pass defense (10 passing TDs allowed).
• Matt Ryan and the Falcons face New Orleans, a team that has given up only five passing TDs this season and has picked off a whopping 13 passes. However, we know that the Falcons will have to throw a lot to stay in this game, especially with their struggling run game, and Ryan is good enough to find some success.

Sit ‘em: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles)

What the hell happened to Eli? He and his WRs came out of the gates like gangbusters but have really struggled since. Manning has barely over 400 yards to go with two TDs and four INTs over the last two weeks.

This week, he and the Giants face an Eagles’ D that is 9th against the pass. There are better options and I’d sit Manning until he proves he can play effectively against good defenses with his foot injury.

Eli Manning Week 8 fantasy projection: 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 8:

• Alex Smith the new starter in San Fran and threw three TDs in the second half last week. The Colts are sixth in the NFL against the pass and have only given up two TDs. Yes, Smith will be passing a lot, but I’d only start him in an emergency.
• Donovan McNabb has only one TD pass over his last two games. The Giants’ secondary has been struggling, so make sure you have a good alternative, but I wouldn’t rate McNabb among the top 10 QBs for this week.
• Joe Flacco is having a terrific season so far, but Denver is 8th against the pass and has given up only three TD passes all year. You can do better (I hope).

Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘em: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (vs Cleveland Browns)

Matt Forte owners, I know how pissed and upset you are. I am in your boat and I feel your pain. Forte was drafted in the first round by many of us and has rewarded our faith in him by recording all of one TD this year. Whoopdie-f’ing-do.

However, you have to start him this week against the awful Browns. And if you don’t believe me, ask frustrated Ryan Grant owners how last week worked out. (I’m one of those too! And it worked out great: 148 yards and a TD). The Browns give up 170.6 yards per game on the ground and have given up 10 TDs this year.

‘Nuff said.

Matt Forte Week 8 fantasy projection: 120 yards rushing, TD; 5 rec, 45 yards, TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• LaDainian Tomlinson is another Forte-like guy who has disappointed fantasy owners. LT gets Oakland’s 30th ranked run defense this week though, and should be a great start.
• If you drafted Beanie Wells and have hung onto him this long, this is a week to start him. Beanie is coming off his best game of the season and faces Carolina’s 26th ranked run D.
• Ricky Williams has to be an every-week start for you right now. He had 138 total yards earlier this year against the Jets and is coming off of a three-TD performance against New Orleans.
• Lots of people are saying sit Ryan Grant this week against Minnesota. I disagree. He has a career 5.3 yard average against the Vikings and had over 100 total yards against them earlier this year.

Sit ‘em: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (at Arizona Cardinals)

I’ve been touting Stewart’s virtues in this column over the past few weeks. It worked out two weeks ago but did not work out last week. One thing I have said about Stewart is that he is a matchup play who has the potential for very productive weeks.

This week presents one of those matchups for which I would sit Stewart. The Panthers play Arizona’s #1 ranked run D (67.5 yards per game, three TDs allowed) and any production Stewart gets will have to be stolen away from DeAngelo Williams.

Jonathan Stewart Week 8 fantasy projection: 35 yards rushing, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• LenDale White isn’t scoring TDs this year (only one) and Jacksonville actually has a decent run defense that has surrendered only three rushing TDs all year.
• Tashard Choice has to be a sit now. His burst of production was nice while it lasted, but until the Cowboys’ coaching staff shows that it will treat Choice like more than a #3 back when Barber and Jones are healthy, you can’t take the chance.
• Willis McGahee is done. Stick a fork in him. I just didn’t want anyone to forget over the bye week. He has 13 carries for 12 yards over the last three weeks. Ouch.
• Donald Brown needs to sit as well until he starts getting more touches. Look at the last four weeks: 15, 10, 8, 2. That’s not a good trend, especially with Joseph Addai being more productive.

Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘em: Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys (vs Seattle Seahakws)

How can I put anyone else in this space?

I admit, I was skeptical of Austin’s breakout performance against Kansas City. However, he then went out and did it again against Atlanta, and not one bit of it has seemed fluky.

Plus, did you know that Austin is 6′3, 214 pounds? I always thought he was smaller. And did you know that he’s in his fourth season in the NFL, when many young WRs break out?  Well you do know.

And you also know to start him.

He can’t possibly keep up his current pace, but he’s clearly earned the trust of Tony Romo and will continue to be a solid player this season. Also, if you needed any more reason to believe in Austin for Week 8, Seattle has a middle-of-the-pack pass D (16th, 220.3 yards per game, 7 TDs allowed).

Miles Austin Week 8 fantasy projection: 5 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 8:

• Vincent Jackson is having a great season that is going under the radar. He has four TDs total and has scored in back-to-back games. He’s a solid play against Oakland.
• Lee Evans has quietly caught at least four passes and a TD in his last two games. Houston does not have a great secondary. Evans is a solid #3 WR this week.
• Over the last two weeks, Nate Burleson has been on bye and had a forgettable 2 rec, 40-yard performance against Arizona. But don’t forget about him. He still leads SEA in catches, and has Matt Hasselbeck back. Plus, Dallas’ pass defense is not great (238.5 yards per game, 10 TDs).

Sit ‘em: Kevin Walter, Houston Texans (at Buffalo Bills)

This guy has really disappointed me this year. After a breakout 60-catch, 8-TD season in 2008 I was hoping that big things were in store for Walter this year. But he battled injuries early in the season and has not have more than 40 yards receiving since his solid debut against the Jags in Week 3.

This week Houston faces Buffalo, which gives up only 190.4 yards through the air and has picked off twice as many passes as they’ve allowed TDs. I think this will be a great game for Steve Slaton, but not so much for Walter.

Caveat: If Andre Johnson cannot play and Walter becomes the #1 WR, obviously his value increases. But Johnson appears ready to go for Sunday.

Kevin Walter Week 8 fantasy projection: 3 catches, 33 yards

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 8:

• Ted Ginn Jr. continues to drop big passes in key spots. Miami’s coaching staff is about fed up with him and you should be too.
• I know that Michael Crabtree had a solid debut last weekend, but the Colts’ secondary is much better than the Texans’. I want to see Alex Smith successfully lead the 49ers offense for more than a half, and see Crabtree for more than one game, before I buy into any hype.
• All Cleveland WRs. I don’t know why I thought starting Mohamed Massaquoi would be a good choice last week (yes I do…because I was going to the game and — like an idiot — thought it would be fun to have someone starting in the actual game starting on my fantasy roster), but I did it in two leagues. Never again. Don’t start any Cleveland WR unless they have two consecutive good weeks. And good luck waiting for that to happen.

Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Start ‘em: Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears (at Cleveland Browns)

Yes, I’m going back to Greg Olsen. Before last week he’d caught TDs in three straight games, and he still had four catches against Cincinnati, so the opportunities were there. The Browns’ linebackers are not good in coverage and I think Olsen will be able to have a very strong game.

Greg Olsen Week 8 fantasy projection: 5 catches, 69 yards, TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 8:

• Vernon Davis is a must start. I told you about him before the season started and I hope you listened. He is awesome.
• Visanthe Shiancoe is still a guy I like too, despite being down on him early in the year. He scored against the Green Bay earlier this year and has 5 TDs total. Plus, he’s consistent: four catches in each of the last three games.

Sit ‘em: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles (vs New York Giants)

This one honestly pisses me off a little bit. Celek was terrific earlier this year and appeared poised to become a weekly starter. Then Donovan McNabb came back from his injury and forgot about his emerging weapon at TE. It hit rock bottom with last week’s three reception, eight yard performance, for which I blame Andy Reid and McNabb more than Celek.

The ability is there, but I’m holding Celek out of the lineup until I see him become a more integrated part of the Philly offense again.

Brent Celek Week 8 fantasy projection: 4 catches, 21 yards

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 8:

• John Carlson faces a Cowboys D that did a nice job against Tony Gonzalez last week and that struggles more against the deep ball than against underneath and/or over-the-middle passing. Plus, Carlson has had to block more recently.
• Zach Miller is a sit for me as long as JaMarcus Russell is the QB. Miller may flash his ability every once in a while (like he did two weeks ago), but I don’t want to deal with the games where he does nothing (like last week, as I predicted).

Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘em: Chicago Bears D/ST (vs Cleveland Browns)

You should be noticing a theme here: START YOUR BEARS! Or, to be more apt, start whoever is playing the Browns!

The Bears defense has not been great this year, but the matchup could not be better. Until the Browns show some competence on offense, opposing defenses will be solid starts on a weekly basis.

Chicago Bears D/ST Week 8 fantasy projection: 13 points or less given up, 3 sacks, 1 INT

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 8:

• Arizona’s defense is an underrated unit that faces the Panthers this week. Starting at QB for Carolina will be either INT machine Jake Delhomme or who-the-hell-is-he Matt Moore. Good matchup either way.
• The Chargers’ D has been up and down this year, but matchups for defenses don’t get much better than Oakland and JaMarcus Russell at home.

Sit ‘em: New York Giants D/ST (at Philadelphia Eagles)

What happened to the Giants? The team with the greatest defensive line in the league (or so we thought) has only 16 sacks for the season. The Giants are also a mind-boggling 18th in the league in scoring defense, despite playing no one good through their first four games.

New Orleans and Arizona have exposed the Giants’ D as being very suspect, and now the Giants have to face another explosive offense on the road in Philadelphia. I wouldn’t drop the Giants’ D, but I am taking a wait and see approach right now.

New York Giants D/ST Week 8 fantasy projection: 24 or more points given up, 2 sacks

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 8:

• The Browns. Haha…just saying this for shits and giggles. If you were thinking of starting them in the first place, you’re an idiot.
• Baltimore is a D/ST unit that I’d consider sitting this week. I’m wary of sitting them at home, where they can be extra fired up and intimidating, but the Ravens are giving up a lot of yards and points this year and are playing a Denver team that is very sound . The Broncos do not make the type of mistakes guys like Ed Reed can take the other way for seven points. It’s a toss-up for me, so if you have a solid alternative, I’d take it.
• You have to sit San Francisco’s D against Indy and I wouldn’t talk you out of dropping them. The 49ers are improved, but may have become overrated as a fantasy defense early in the year.

Thanks for reading and for your continued support of our fantasy coverage here at MSF. The comment section is yours for questions and I will do my best to answer them all as promptly as I can. Please report any issues (i.e. comment not showing up, not getting a reply, etc) to me via email: jerod [at] midwestsportsfans [dot] com).

And for more fantasy reading, check out Fraschetti’s columns from earlier this week:

• Week 8 Sleepers and Waiver Wire Steals
• Week 8 Play Em / Bench Em

Good luck in Week 8 everyone. In my six leagues I am 6-1, 5-2, and then 4-3 in four of them, so it’s a pivotal week for me just as it is for you. I’ll post a few more times this week with other interesting start/sit or pick-up recommendations I find.

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* – Matt Forte photo credit: Sports Maven

* – Miles Austin photo credit: crazylilsportslady at PhotoBucket

Week 7 is in the books with an amazing milestone: Peyton Manning did NOT pass for 300 yards (the first time in six games that he had not done so).

Week 7 was also a week of blowouts. Six NFL teams lost this weekend by 28 points or more, and one of those teams was the Bears…at the hands of the Bengals! Unbelievable.

Most of this we all saw coming (Week 7 Start Em or Sit Em), but the Bears game was a shocker.

Let’s break down the fantasy football landscape for Week 8, including which players you should play and which players you should bench. (By the way, week 8 is a bye week for the Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers, Buccaneers and Redskins.)

As a side note: My ban on starting any Bills, Browns or Raiders offensive players has not been lifted! This rule is still in effect.

Play Em / Bench Em Quarterbacks

Play Em

Matt Schaub – Texans – Schaub will be facing the Bills, who allowed Jake Delhomme a 300 plus yard game last week.

Jay Cutler -Bears – The Bears are coming off of a horrible game against the Bengals should mean sit em, right? Not when you draw the Cleveland Browns this week, at home!

Philip Rivers -Chargers – Rivers had a good game against the Chiefs, and plays Oakland this week; ’nuff said.

Bench Em

Matt Hasselbeck -Seahawks – Matt will be facing a Cowboys defense that held Matt Ryan t0 nine fantasy points last week. That, combined with Hasselbeck’s last appearance of 111 yards with 2 turnovers versus the Cardinals, makes me want to avoid Hasselbeck.

Mark Sanchez -Jets – The Jets are playing the Dolphins, who gave a win away last week to the Saints. Sanchez did not look great against Oakland, and I see the Jets relying on the running game again this week.

Jake Delhomme -Panthers – Yes, Jake went over 300 yards last week but he threw three more picks. This week he faces the Cardinals, who gave Eli Manning all he could handle on Sunday, as they picked off Manning three times and held him to under 250 yards passing and 1 touchdown. The only factor here that could change is the health of the Cardinals secondary.

Play Em / Bench Em Running Backs

Play Em

Steven Jackson -Rams – I know Jackson owners have been dying to hear this. Jackson just had a 134-yard game and will play the Lions this week, which means that he could actually get into the endzone. There are not too many weeks where you will see Steven Jackson above the bench em print, but this week is one of those weeks.

Brandon Jacobs – Giants – Jacobs had a good game against the Cardinals, and in my opinion was not used nearly enough. Jacobs had a couple big gains, and looked good attacking the holes. I look for the Giants to go to Jacobs more this week against the Eagles.

Matt Forte -Bears – See Jay Cutler! (Hint: it has to do with their opponent…the Browns.)

Bench Em

Ryan Grant – Packers – I know that Grant just had 143 rushing yards last week, but that was against the Browns. The Minnesota Vikings this week will not be as generous with the rushing yardage.

Julius Jones – Seahawks – Jones has had a horrible last three games, with a total of 64 yards rushing over that period. The Cowboys will not help his stock rise this week.

Joseph Addai -Colts – Addai does not have over 64 yards rushing in a game this year. The 49ers D will not be as forgiving at the Rams, who gave Addai his season high in yardage.

• For ProFootballinsight’s Play Em or Bench Em Receivers, Tight Ends and Defenses, Click Here!
• Got questions, we have answers. Need a Sleeper or a Waiver Wire Steal, click this link for more!

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* – Jay Cutler photo credit: Bleacher Report

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight

Week 8, as usual, is filled with injuries, six bye weeks, and numerous underachieving players. This is the time of year when uncovering a waiver wire player about to step into more opportunity can be exactly the boon that your team needs.

In New York and San Francisco, two such sleeper players exist: RB Shonn Greene and QB Alex Smith.

We look at these two Week 8 diamonds in the rough, plus link you to PFI for more sleepers and waiver wire steals for Week 8.

[Editor's Note: Jerod's Week 8 start 'em, sit 'em column will be one day late but will be posted tomorrow morning.]

Week 8 Sleeper / Waiver Wire Steal #1: Shonn Greene-RB-Jets

WOW!!! What a coming out party Greene had last week. How are these stats for someone owned in less than 3% of fantasy leagues: 19 carries for 144 yards with 2 TD’s. Amazing.

Even better (except for Leon Washington and his owners, because the now-injured Jet was having a good season of his own), Leon Washington went down with a broken leg. The Jets liked to run before, and Greene busting out will make them like running the ball even more. This guy is a must have!

Week 8 Sleeper / Waiver Wire Steal #2. Alex Smith-QB-49ers

Smith came into last week’s game and looked like a 1st round draft pick for the first time since being drafted in the first round five years ago. Head Coach Mike Singletary named Smith the starter already for the game this week versus the Colts. This will not be an easy game for Smith, but if you are not deep at the QB position, adding Smith will come in handy when the 49ers face easier match ups.

For bye week information and who you should be playing, follow this link for PFI’s start/sit recommendations. And follow this link for another no-name starting QB that may see the field soon and enter the sleeper and waiver wire steal conversation.

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* – Shonn Greene photo credit: AFCBeast.com

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight
Senior Fantasy Writer / Midwest Sports Fans
Kurt@Profootballinsight.net

I’ve got a flight to catch at 5:20 — headed to Cleveland for the Sports Media 360 conference — and a full day of work to squeeze in between now and when I leave the office around 2:30. Thus, there is no time to waste.

Let’s get right to our usual Friday Morning Would debate.

Today, we are going to look at two running backs who have had up and down seasons to this point: Dallas battering ram Marion Barber and Panthers second-year scamperer Jonathan Stewart.

A few weeks ago, when Barber was tearing it up and Stewart was on the sidelines nursing what seemed to be an endless array of maladies, this would have been a no-brainer.

But as we know, things can change quickly in the NFL. And as Week 7 approaches, I am suggesting that you start Jonathan Stewart over Marion Barber.

Here’s why:

Health

Seems ironic right?

Well, over the last month Barber has battled an injured quad and a fractured thumb, both of which are still issues now. Despite Barber’s proclamation that his quad is “no longer a problem,” many in Dallas aren’t so sure.

We’ll see. Running backs coach Skip Peetesaid the quadriceps injury is something that would linger for a long time. After sitting out the Carolina game, Barber was not the same runner against Denver and Kansas City.

Barber is coming off a bye, which is good and should have him feeling more refreshed than he’s been. Still, Barber only has one game this season in which he’s had more carries than the amount Stewart got last week (17). And if Barber is banged up at all (which he appears to be) the Cowboys have Tashard Choice and now-healthy Felix Jones to take carries.

Jonathan Stewart dealt with a Achilles’ issue earlier this year, but seems to be over it. The evidence? His 17-carry, 110-yard performance last week. Barber, on the other hand, hasn’t had a game over 3.7 yards per carry since returning from the quad injury.

Opportunity

I touched on this above. Marion Barber has two very good running backs ready to steal carries from him, which is why he has carried the ball 14, 18, 11, and 15 times this season. Stewart only has one other back — DeAngelo Williams — stealing carries from him, and garnered 17 carries this week in what was really his first completely healthy week of the season.

Despite their cumulative totals to this point in the season, I actually see a greater likelihood of Stewart getting 15 carries than Barber this week.

Moving forward, I expect Stewart to settle into the role he had over the second half of last season when he and DAW joined forces to form the most potent 1-2 running back punch in the league. In five out of the Panthers’ final 10 games, Stewart had 15 or more carries and he scored 6 TDs.

He is not going be a sure-fire start every week, so you will need to assess the matchup. But most weeks he will provide solid value for a flex player, with the occasional #2-type production.

Matchup

This is where I really give Stewart the edge this week.

Guess who is dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game? The Buffalo Bills.

Guess who the Carolina Panthers play this week? The Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo is giving up an average of 181.8 yards per game on the ground and has surrendered eight TDs. They have struggled to stop teams like Cleveland and the Jets from running the ball, neither of which you’d really consider a great running team. Carolina, however, is 8th in the league and rushing and that ranking is rising by the week.

This is a matchup tailor-made for starting both Carolina backs.

The Cowboys don’t have a terrible matchup by any stretch. Atlanta is only 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (118.2), but that is a pretty big difference from 181.8. Plus, Atlanta has only given up three TDs on the ground all year, and we saw what they did to Matt Forte last week.

In the end, I think there are three very clear signs for why Jonathan Stewart is a better play than Marion Barber this week. It’s not a slam-dunk by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s the kind of bold move that could end up netting you 2-3 extra fantasy points this week; and who knows, that could be the difference between a win and a loss.

Jonathan Stewart Week 7 projection: 16 carries, 97 yards, TD

Marion Barber Week 7 projection: 13 carries, 58 yards, 2 rec, 17 yards

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* – Jonathan Stewart photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images via About.com

* – Marion Barber photo credit: The Red Zone Report

Coming off of a great Week 6 for ProFootballinsight’s sleepers and waiver wire steals, we have some great Week 7 advice for you to help you replace players who are on bye, injured, or just plan under performing.

We’ll do a brief recap of last week and then get into a couple of running backs who may be available in your league and who could be in store for very nice days this Sunday.

Here is our brief recap of last week. and then we’ll outline a few of our Week 7 sleeper picks and waiver wire steals.

PFI said that Leon Washington, Donnie Avery, Jermichael Finley and Sammy Morris would have good fantasy sleeper weeks. Washington had 144 total yards. Avery had a touchdown, but left the game with an injury. Finley had 54 yards and Morris left the game with an injury. Based on Maroney’s performance, Morris would have had a field day had he not left the game. Sorry, PFI cannot predict injuries.

This week, ProFootballinsight looks for the following two running back sleepers to make a positive impact on your roster:

Week 7 RB Sleepers and Waiver Wire Steals

RB Sleeper Pick: Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

On a team with four quality running backs, Williams has been stealing carries, yardage, and touchdowns. His match-up this week is difficult as they are playing the Patriots, but Williams numbers can’t be ignored.

Four out of six weeks, Williams has had double digit carries and has two rushing touchdowns on the season, which is two more than Larry Johnson or Steven Jackson. If you’re hurting at RB, Cadillac Williams is a sleeper/waiver wire option in deep leagues.

RB Sleeper Pick / Waiver Wire Steal: Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders

Fargas is coming off of a 23 carry, 87 yard performance. He is available in almost every fantasy league, and with Darren McFadden’s injury, Fargas looks to gobble up the Raiders carries.

To see which WRs are in line for surprisingly good days. and who could be available as a waiver wire pickup in your league, head on over to Pro Football Insight for our Week 7 sleepers and waiver wire steals.

Also, feel free to ask any start/sit questions in the comment section of this post or at Jerod’s Week 7 start em, sit em post from earlier this week.

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* – Cadillac Williams photo credit: BrianCobb_2008 at Photobucket