A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
Every Sunday morning starting at 10:00 CT (11:00 ET) we are here to answer your last minute start/sit questions.
Zach will be manning the live chat for the second week in a row, while I will be hosting a live call-in show for those of you who don’t feel like typing. The call-in show will begin promptly at 10:00 CT and last until about 11:30.
On Monday, Andy Bottoms told you which players you should be targeting on the waiver wire. Then on Tuesday, Jon Washburn informed you which players you should start and which ones you should sit in Week 3. And then on yesterday, in between talking to live callers, I pointed out where I agreed and disagreed with both.
Now today our Week 3 fantasy football analysis continues.
I just posted the consensus Week 3 player rankings, and now I am going to highlight several sleepers hiding on the waiver wire or on your bench who you need to consider putting in your lineups for Week 3.
I have been busy tinkering with our new features like live call-in shows plus answering fantasy questions in the comment sections and on Twitter, and Jon has been answering questions as well while also preparing to head to Chicago for the Packers-Bears game…and so here we are on Thursday with no rankings posted for you yet.
I’d give us the old *tsk tsk* except that we found a way to make sure you’re covered, courtesy of our friends at PlayThisGuy.com, who just sent over their Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST. Here they are:
In this week’s Wednesday episode of Fantasy Football Talk, which originally aired live last night here on Blog Talk Radio, I offer up start/sit and waiver advice to help fantasy owners prepare for their Week 3 matchups.
In addition to taking questions from live callers, I analyzed Jon Washburn’s Week 3 Start/Sit column and Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice column, discussing which picks I agree and disagree with.
Our friends at FanDuel are offering MSF readers another opportunity to try out FanDuel for FREE with the chance to win a share of a cool $250.
If you are into fantasy football but have not participated at FanDuel, it’s time to change that. At FanDuel, fantasy football leagues last just one week and you can play for real money. Like in Week 1. Against other MSF readers and members of our writing staff.
Tonight starting at 7:00 CT and lasting for an hour, I’ll be hosting a live fantasy football call-in show over at Blog Talk Radio. You can listen live here, and I’ll be taking calls at 310-982-4170 starting at around 7:20 CT.
When I came up with the fantasy team name It’s Not A Rookie, It’s A Cam Newton this year, it was really just a play off of It Not A Cookie, It’s A Fig Newton. I didn’t realize that the Panthers were drafting a new team when they picked Newton, but the kid has been a machine.
He has not played like a rookie at all and has inspired me to look at some stats that matter and may help you make decisions this coming week and throughout the season.
It’s Thursday, so you know what that means: time for another episode of Fantasy Football Talk.
MSF senior fantasy writer Kurt Fraschetti joined me yesterday as he always does and we tackled a smorgasbord of fantasy topics.
And if you listened to last week’s episode, you can probably guess what led off this week’s show. Here’s a hint: it involves the Philadelphia Eagles and some major gloating by Kurt.
In case you’re a bit dissatisfied with one or more of your starters at a particular position, and trolling the waiver wire in search of a guy who could be a Week 3 boon, this post is for you.
I’ll provide a few names at each position that are owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues who might be able to provide more of an immediate impact than someone else on your roster.
The Week 3 rankings are ready to go.
Among the tougher calls this week that might surprise you: Brett Favre and Carson Palmer (both top 10 QBs); Cedric Benson is in the top 10 but LeSean McCoy is not; Brandon Marshall at #6 against a tough pass defense; Dallas’ D not in the top 20; and many, many more.
As I anticipated it would be, Week 2 was much better for me than Week 1. It’s always nice to be able to see everyone play a real game before trying to prognosticate how they will do.
Week 2 wasn’t perfect, but still a rather solid performance.
The hits and misses:
But no resting on our laurels. Week 2 is over. Let’s turn the page to Week 3 and see who should start and who should sit.
[Read more...]
From a fantasy perspective, no team is more mind-achingly frustrating intriguing than the Philadelphia Eagles heading into Week 3. Not only do the Eagles have what looks to be a pretty sweet matchup against the hapless Kansas City Chiefs, but Philadelphia’s most recent injury report would make for half of a pretty good fantasy starting lineup:
QB: Donovan McNabb – doubtful with rib injury
RB: Brian Westbrook – questionable with ankle injury
WR: Desean Jackson – questionable with groin injury
WR: Kevin Curtis – doubtful with knee injury
Most McNabb owners are probably not counting on him playing this weekend. Certainly they should not be. McNabb is reportedly progressing well, but there is no reason for the Eagles to play him this week and risk further injury when they have a bye week coming up next week.
As for Desean Jackson, he participated fully in Friday’s practice and should be good to go on Sunday. With Kevin Curtis likely out, and rookie Jeremy Maclin lining up opposite Jackson, I expect Desean and Brent Celek to get most of the targets from probable starting QB Kevin Kolb. The reports were pretty solid about Jackson, so he should be ready to contribute normally.
With all that said, the most compelling and influential injury issue in Philadelphia for Week 3 is Brian Westbrook.
Update 9/27: ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio just reported that Brian Westbrook is OUT for Sunday’s game. Play LeSean McCoy.
Note: This post is from 2009!!!
Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports for our 2010 Week 3 sleeper picks.
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So I’m feeling a little under the weather today and decided to stay home from work. Nothing serious so far…just some congestion and a little bit less energy than usual. But, rather than start a Gator-like outbreak where I work, I figured it best to just stay within the confines of my apartment.
Of course, since I work in blogging and social media, “staying home from work” really just means doing exactly what I would be doing at the “office” from my living room table.
Such is life when your real office is a laptop.
I suppose I could have slept in a little longer than usual. No one would have really known. But I’m a morning person and do my best, most focused writing before lunch. I’ve just always been that way.
So rather than hit the snooze the button or sleep in until the last possible second, I get up as early as I think my body can handle and jump right into my day.
In this sense, you could say that I am not a sleeper.
But would you like to know a few guys who are sleepers? Yeah? Well good, because we’re about to discuss a few.
Note: remember how I do all of my weekly sleeper columns. Only players currently on 50% or less of Yahoo rosters are considered. I try my best to highlight players with solid matchups this particular week, but it doesn’t always work out perfectly. Regardless of how they do in Week 3, all of these players are guys I can see being valuable moving forward — unless otherwise specified — especially once the bye weeks hit.
If you want to see how my sleeper works out last week, check out this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em post. As usual, I outlined the successes and failures of the previous week’s picks there. I was right on regarding Correll Buckhalter and the Washington D, but my other picks didn’t come through as well in Week 2. I still do think, however, that Shaun Hill, Vernon Davis, and Robert Meachem are solid guys to have on your bench.
Let’s get to it for Week 3.
Follow this link to StubHub for great deals on NFL tickets.
Week 3 QB Sleeper Pick: Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs New York Giants)
Full disclosure: I do have ESPN on in the background and did catch Matthew Berry talking about Leftwich, but I swear I was going to write about him anyway. And honestly, Leftwich has sleeper written all over him:
This week Leftwich and the Bucs play the Giants, so it may not be the perfect matchup. New York has a great defense and harassed Tony Romo into three picks last Sunday. New York also likes to play ball control offensively, so they might not explode to a big lead that forces the Bucs to throw the entire second half.
That said, you could do worse than Leftwich if you’re heading into the bye weeks without a viable QB fill-in.
And make no mistake, that’s all Leftwich is: a fill-in. With consecutive games against the Giants, Redskins, Eagles, Panthers, Patriots, and Packers, Leftwich may see his numbers fall off somewhat. In fact, he probably will. Remember, he put up his big numbers against Buffalo and Dallas, neither of which has a great secondary.
But the promise for “quality” garbage-time TDs is there if you’re trolling for a backup QB.
Byron Leftwich Week 3 projection: 200 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Other QB sleepers I like specifically for Week 3: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (vs Kansas City, 9% owned); Jake Delhomme, Carolina (at Dallas, 36% owned)
A quick note on Jake Delhomme: I know it sounds crazy, but he could be a sneaky good start this week. If you’re in a two-QB league, I think he’s a no-brainer. There is no way that Dallas’ secondary can cover Steve Smith, who has not found the end zone this season (he’s due!) and could be in for a huge game Monday night.
And remember this: Dallas has not forced a turnover all year, which is Delhomme’s Achilles’ heel. I understand if you’re still skittish about starting Delhomme in a single QB league — I would be too — just know that he may pop for two or three TDs on Monday night.
Week 3 RB Sleeper Pick: Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns (at Baltimore Ravens)
Damnit, I did it again.
I found a way to sneak a Cleveland Brown into my sleeper picks.
In Week 1, my Brady Quinn pick worked out well as he got the garbage-time TD I predicted. In Week 2, Robert Royal disappeared. In Week 3, I think Jerome Harrison has intriguing value — especially in PPR leagues — and I think Harrison could be an interesting player from here on out.
Follow the link to read more about my thoughts on Harrison’s fantasy potential in 2009. This is not the first time I’ve touted him.
Currently, Harrison is owned in only 4% of leagues, so he’s definitely available. Let’s say you own Brian Westbrook and Marion Barber…you could be in need of a deeper sleeper as early as this week.
Here is why I think Jerome Harrison is an intriguing value for Week 3:
There are obviously a lot of backs I would not bench for Harrison. And the majority of rosters probably couldn’t handle taking a flyer on him, but keep your eye out. If you need someone at RB this week, I think Harrison could pay modest dividends. Cleveland will get blown out by Baltimore this weekend, but Harrison could get 5-6 catches and possibly even a TD.
And if anything happens to Jamal Lewis (who is, remember, in the dreaded 30+ RB category), Harrison will get more carries as well.
I may once again regret recommending a Brown, but Jerome is a guy I’ve been singing the praises of since last season. I’m sticking with him, no matter how deep of a sleeper he may be.
Jerome Harrison Week 3 projection: 3 rushes for 9 yards, 5 receptions for 38 yards, 1 TD
Other RB Sleepers I like specifically for Week 3: Mewelde Moore, Pittsburgh (at Cincinnati, 13% owned); Justin Forsett, Seattle (vs Chicago, 18%)
I also love Tashard Choice this week if Marion Barber does not play, but Fraschetti already covered Choice in his waiver wire post, so I didn’t want to take the easy way out.
Week 3 WR Sleeper Pick: Chansi Stuckey, New York Jets (vs Tennessee Titans)
Something tells me Chansi Stuckey might catch four passes this weekend against the Titans. Why do I think this? Well, perhaps because he has caught four passes in each of the Jets’ last four regular season games for 43, 50, 64, and 37 yards.
Unlike the final two games of last year, however, when none of Stuckey’s eight catches got him into the end zone, he’s already reached pay dirt once in ’09 (Week 1 at Houston) and barely missed catching a TD against New England in Week 2.
Stuckey is clearly the #2 wideout, is receiving red zone targets, and Mark Sanchez is not playing like a typical rookie QB. I see no reason why Stuckey cannot continue to catch 3-5 balls per game, for 45-75 yards, with the occasional TD. Those aren’t great numbers, but they are solid for a fill-in or a reliable flex play.
As for this week, the 27%-owned Stuckey gets to go up against Tennessee’s last-ranked pass defense. Temper your expectations because the Titans are not that bad and will no doubt play well in desperation mode this week, but Stuckey should still get his usual four receptions.
Chansi Stuckey Week 3 projection: 4 catches, 55 yards, .5 TD (i.e. who the hell knows and why predict it, but he’s getting red zone chances so it would not be a surprise)
Other WR sleepers I like specifically in Week 3: Isaac Bruce, San Francisco (at Minnesota, 47% owned); Brandon Stokley, Denver (at Oakland, 21% owned); Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (at Arizona, 14% owned); Bobby Wade, Kansas City (at Philadelphia, 9% owned)
Week 3 TE Sleeper Pick: No one
I have now being sitting here for ten minutes staring at the under-50% tight ends in Yahoo and can’t find anyone I want to recommend.
Vernon Davis is still the best of the bunch, but I’ve lauded him two weeks in a row with only 7 catches and 72 yards to show for it. I still like Davis long-term this season, but will wait for a little bit more proof on the field before continuing to fawn over his potential.
Anthony Fasano is intriguing because the Dolphins have targeted him a decent amount, but only 3 catches for 11 yards — and with some key drops — has understandably sullied his value and rep.
I like the two TEs in Green Bay — Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley — against St. Louis this week, but who do you start?
And whoever starts at TE for Tennessee could get some opportunities, but it’s undecided right now because Bo Scaife is dinged up. Alge Crumpler would go if Scaife can’t, and they also have promising rookie Jared Cook as an option.
Instead of recommending anyone specifically, I’ll simply reiterate my support from this week’s start em, sit em column for Brent Celek. He is proving to be a very reliable tight end and is an obvious favorite of Kevin Kolb. With Kolb starting again this week, grab Celek (60% owned) if you can.
Week 3 D/ST Sleeper Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)
I know it sounds crazy to recommend the Bengals’ D against Pittsburgh, but my #1 choice is Denver and I already discussed them in the start ‘em, sit ‘em column. Consider this a bonus sleeper pick.
Pittsburgh has not proven it can run the ball, the game is in Cincinnati, and the Bengals are coming off of two impressive defensive performances. I think we are going to see a low-scoring slugfest on Sunday, with the Bengals having the potential to capitalize on suspect pass protection for Ben Roethlisberger, as well as the fact that the Steelers will probably be throwing a lot.
Lots of passing creates more opportunities for sacks, INTs, and passes broken up, which can all bring fantasy points depending on your scoring system.
I wouldn’t expect the same number of sacks that Cincy got last week as Big Ben is hard to bring down, but the Bengals should have a solid day Sunday and certainly are worthy of being owned in more than 6% of leagues.
Cincinnati Defense Week 3 projection: less than 20 points, 2 sacks, 1 INT
Other team defense sleepers I like specifically in Week 3: Denver Broncos (at Oakland, 37% owned)
And that concludes this week’s sleeper picks. Feel free to ask any questions down in the comment section and I’ll do my best to answer you as quickly as I’m able.
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* – Byron Leftwich and Snoop Dog photo credit: SnoopDog.com
* – Bengals D v Pittsburgh photo credit: Getty Images via Zimbio
Pro Football Insight is back again with our Week 3 waiver wire steals and sleepers.
If you caught last week’s waiver wire steals column, you benefitted from picking up Todd Heap and from a quality performance off the waiver wire in the Atlanta Falcons Defense.
Here is a quick teaser of this week’s predictions, and then a link to this week’s complete set of waiver wire steals.
I will start by saying that if anyone is calling Steve Smith or Mario Manningham a sleeper or waiver wire pick up, they are definitely not going out on a limb. These two are no-brainers to get on your roster if available, and are worthy of starts if you do not have a quality #1 receiver.
I was going to call Manningham a waiver wire steal last week, but as a Wolverines fan, I avoid picking from my heart. With that in mind, I did pick him up for last week in every league I’m…I just did not start him. Enough small talk, onto this week’s injury and/or poor draft pick fillers:
1. Tashard Choice – RB – Dallas Cowboys
If you own Marion Barber and did not draft Felix Jones, Choice will get carries in Barber’s absence. As Jerod updated earlier today here on MSF, reports out of Dallas are saying that Barber will most likely miss Monday’s game against Carolina. You still want to check the injury reports heading into Sunday, but that’s the latest as of right now.
As for Choice, no he will not put up Barber numbers, but he will produce points in a tandem with Felix Jones. Tashard Choice is a solid substitute for Barber and is a solid flex-level play who could produce RB#2-like numbers.
Update: Definitely keep your eye on Marion Barber’s status. The latest update, at least according to ESPN, is that Barber received treatment yesterday and hopes to play Monday night. Looks like this will be a Sunday morning decision and you’ll just have to base your thoughts on Barber’s status for Monday night — which will obviously influence Choice’s value — on as much info as you have.
There are still four more solid gold Week 3 waiver wire steals awaiting you at ProFootballInsight.net. Follow the link for the rest the Week 3 waiver wire steals.
And, as always, feel free to use the comment section here or at PFI to ask your fantasy football lineup question.
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* – Tashard Choice photo credit: Tom Fox / DMN Photo Staff via Denton Record-Chronicle
The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.
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It’s that time of the week again: time for your early look at Week 3 of the 2009 fantasy football season with this week’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em post.
As usual before we begin, it’s accountability time. Let’s see how I did in last week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em post:
Obviously I am proud of my Cutler recommendation when everyone else was telling you to sit him, but there are a few valuable lessons that I was reminded of last week:
All in all, slightly more hits than misses, but still work to be done. I take these recommendations very seriously and want to steer you in the right direction.
I’m mainly trying to get tuned up for the bye weeks, because that’s where start ‘em, sit ‘em advice and sleeper picks really become important. But let’s see if I can build on my Week 2 improvement and have closer to a perfect week in Week 3.
As always, the comment section is yours. Post any lineup or waiver wire question and I’ll answer it as soon as I’m able up until kickoff.
Now onto the start ‘em, sit ‘em picks for Week 3.
Start ‘Em: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills (vs New Orleans)
I was high on Trent Edwards as a sleeper coming into the season and a lot of people laughed at me. Well after two games, who’s laughing now?
Edwards has been solid so far: 221 passing yards per game, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. This week, he gets to go up against a defense that has given up a lot of passing yards this year (288 per game) but also gotten its fair share of turnovers (6 INTs).
Trent Edwards though, unlike Matthew Stafford and Kevin Kolb, will not be making his first career start against the Saints.
We know that New Orleans can and will score, and that the Bills will have to keep pace to have a chance. I already predicted that the Bills will cover the 5.5 point spread at home in this week’s TV schedule and point spreads post, so obviously I think they will do just that.
With Fred Jackson providing a solid rushing complement to Edwards’ sound decision making and outside playmakers (T.O. and Lee Evans), this Buffalo offense has been one of the more underrated units in the NFL through two weeks.
Look for Edwards to get into a bit of a shootout with Drew Brees. He won’t win it — either in real life or fantasy — but he will put up points worthy of a starting spot in most leagues.
Trent Edwards Week 3 projection: 285 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Others I like in Week 3: Philip Rivers (vs Miami); Matt Schaub (vs Jacksonville); Eli Manning (at Tampa Bay); Joe Flacco (vs Cleveland)
Sit ‘Em: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (vs Pittsburgh)
So far in 2009, Carson Palmer has been pretty ho-hum. He threw for 247 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs in Week 1 against Denver, then rebounded somewhat with a 2 TD performance this past Sunday (but with only 185 yards and 2 INTs).
Many people expected Palmer to reassert himself as a top-10 or even top-5 fantasy quarterback this year. So far it hasn’t happened, despite the reemergence of the Bengals’ running game.
This will be Carson Palmer’s first game against the Steelers since December of 2007 after missing most of last year with an injury. And though Troy Polamalu will still not be in the lineup for Pittsburgh — and Jay Cutler had a good day against the Steelers last Sunday — I’d like to see a little more consistency from the Bengals passing game before I throw Palmer out there against such a great defense.
Palmer may have a decent day, and I would not sit Chad Ochocinco, but there are other 2nd-tier QBs that you might also have that I like better, including: Matt Schaub (vs JAX), Aaron Rodgers (vs STL), Eli Manning (at TB), Trent Edwards (vs New Orleans).
Carson Palmer Week 3 projection: 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Others I don’t like in Week 3: Kerry Collins (at New York Jets); Brett Favre (vs San Francisco); Kyle Orton (at Oakland)
Start ‘Em: Steve Slaton, Houston (vs Jackonsville)
There are some easy RB choices this week (look below in Others I Like) but I’m not taking the easy way out. I am a Steve Slaton owner, and others like me are probably wondering whether sitting Slaton is a good idea after watching him rush for 51 yards and not get into the end zone through the season’s first two games.
Start him. I am. And here’s why:
Houston knows they have to run the ball to be successful this year. Last week, they got their passing game going against Tennessee. This week, it will be all about the run. Slaton had tough matchups in Weeks 1 and 2 (Jets, Titans) but should find plenty more room to run this week.
Steve Slaton Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD, 5 rec, 55 yards receiving
Other RBs — specifically, good ones who have struggled so far in 2009 — I like in Week 3: Steven Jackson (vs Green Bay); Clinton Portis (vs Detroit); Matt Forte (at Seattle)
Sit ‘Em: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh)
Can you tell that I think it’s going to be a tough day for the Bengals at home against Pittsburgh?
Look, I’m a card-carrying member of the I Hate Cedric Benson Club, but even I can’t deny that he has been very good this year. He’s run for 217 yards through two games and has scored a TD. But Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses week in and week out, and they have already shut down fantasy studs Chris Johnson and Matt Forte in back-to-back weeks.
Why in the hell would a perennial fantasy stiff like Benson do what those two could not?
You want numbers? Here you go: Last year, Pittsburgh gave up 80.2 yards per game on the ground and allowed only seven rushing TDs all year. This year, they are giving up only 64.5 yards per game and have yet to give up a rushing score. Cedric Benson has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry and has scored a grand total of 13 TDs in 49 games.
No thank you. That was easy.
Cedric Benson Week 3 projection: 41 yards, 0 TDs
Other RBs I don’t like in Week 3: Thomas Jones (vs Tennessee); LenDale White (at New York Jets); Willie Parker (at Cincinnati); Larry Johnson (at Philadelphia)
Start ‘Em: Derrick Mason, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)
Cleveland’s defense has actually not been as bad as you might think. It is the offense that has truly been putrid. The problem is that the offense’s inability to stay in the field has led to tired legs in the second half and big plays for the opposition.
With Hank Poteat looking absolutely incompetent covering the slot, Derrick Mason could have another good game against the Browns. Here are his last four outings against Cleveland, the first two of which were with Joe Flacco at QB last season: 9 rec, 136 yards, TD; 4 rec, 42 yards; 6 rec, 83 yards; 10 rec, 78 yards.
Not too shabby.
Mason is hit or miss in terms of touchdowns, but makes an especially solid play this week in PPR leagues. The Browns will give up a lot of underneath receptions, which is exactly where Mason likes to operate. Plus, Baltimore should get up early and be salting away a win in the second half, which means they probably won’t be going deep too often after the first couple of quarters.
Derrick Mason Week 3 projection: 7 receptions, 87 yards, 1 TD
Other WRs I like in Week 3: Torry Holt (at Houston); Braylon Edwards (at Baltimore); Lee Evans (vs New Orleans); Mario Manningham and Steve Smith (at Tampa Bay); Desean Jackson (vs Kansas City); Johnny Knox (at Seattle)
Sit ‘Em: Donnie Avery, St. Louis (vs Green Bay)
A lot of fantasy owners had high hopes for Donnie Avery on the heels of his breakout rookie campaign during which he caught 53 balls or 674 yards and 3 TDs. Through two games in 2009, however, Avery has only 7 catches for 50 yards.
This week, the Rams play a Green Bay defense that was shredded by the Bengals last week at home. Green Bay’s primary problem on D is their inability to stop the run, but they do have two solid cornerbacks in Charles Woodson and Al Harris that will make life difficult for Avery and Laurent Robinson.
For St. Louis to win on Sunday, Steven Jackson will need to be the first, second, and third options in the offense. I think Avery will see limited targets, especially with Robinson’s emergence (11 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD on the season).
Donnie Avery Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 35 yards, 0 TD
Other WRs I don’t like in Week 3: Nate Washington (at New York Jets); Laveraneus Coles (vs Pittsburgh); Nate Burleson (vs Chicago)
Start ‘Em: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs Kansas City)
I should have listed Brent Celek here last week and taken advantage of his 8 catch, 104-yard performance. Alas, I did not; but I am righting that wrong this week.
Celek has been outstanding so far this year, catching no fewer than six passes through the Eagles’ first two games. Kevin Kolb, the likely starter for this Sunday’s game against Kansas City, clearly likes Celek and will throw the ball his way often.
And guess what? Kansas City sucks, which makes this a really solid matchup for Celek and his owners.
Brent Celek Week 3 projection: 8 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD
Other TEs I like in Week 3: Todd Heap (vs Cleveland); Dustin Keller (vs Tennessee)
Sit ‘Em: Benjamin Watson, New England (vs Atlanta)
I’m afraid fantasy owners are going to overrate Ben Watson for at least the first few weeks of the season. His Week 1 numbers will skew his cumulative totals and make otherwise sensible owners forget that he has caught only 58 passes over the past two seasons.
Watson was tremendous in Week 1, catching six balls for 77 yards and 2 TDs, but that was more of a fluky function of that game’s situation and a specific defense Buffalo had been employing that Tom Brady took advantage of in the waning moments of the game.
I expect Tom Brady to look deep early and often against the Falcons. Watson may catch a few balls, but there are plenty of better options who are probably available, but may not have the gaudy and misleading two week stats that Watson has put up so far.
Ben Watson Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 24 yards, 0 TD
Other TEs I don’t like in Week 3: Zach Miller (vs Denver)
Start ‘Em: Denver Broncos at Oakland
Denver’s D was a much-maligned unit heading the 2009 season, but thus far is the #2 ranked defense in fantasy. Granted, they played the Browns last week to help prop up the numbers, but they also held a pretty potent Cincinnati offense in check the week prior.
What I like about Denver’s D is their ability to pressure the quarterback. Elvis Dumervil alone sacked Brady Quinn four times last week. Sacks are a good way to balance out giving up a few points…but giving up lots of points shouldn’t be a problem this week for Denver.
Denver faces Oakland and JaMarcus Russell — the same JaMarcus Russell who went 7-24 last week against Kansas City. The Raiders are also without starting guard Robert Gallery, who is injured.
This should be an ugly, low-scoring game between two underrated defenses. Considering the Raiders’ porous QB play and Denver should be a solid start for at least one more week.
Denver D/ST Week 3 projection: 13 points or less given up, 4 sacks, 2 INTs
Other team defense units I like in Week 3: Philadelphia (vs Kansas City); Green Bay (vs St. Louis); Washington (vs Detroit); Baltimore (vs Cleveland)
Sit ‘Em: Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina
Dallas’ defense has been very disappointing so far this year. They have yet to force a fumble or record a sack. And while you might say that they are due, I’d rather not take my chances against an offense that has DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Steve Smith, no matter how much Jake Delhomme has struggled.
Truthfully, I came close to putting Jake Delhomme in the start ‘em column for this week. Dallas’ D is very susceptible to big pass plays, and Delhomme-Smith is still a lethal downfield combo that is searching for its first TD connection of the year. Delhomme played better last week, and has perhaps put his ungodly INT problems behind him.
Either way, you have better options than the Cowboys’ D in what will probably end up being a shootout this coming Monday night.
Dallas D/ST Week 3 projection: 27 or more points given up, 1 sack, 1 INT
Other team defense units I don’t like in Week 3: Buffalo (vs New Orleans); Indianapolis (at Arizona); Arizona (vs Indianapolis); New England (vs Atlanta); Atlanta (at New England)
Can you tell that I think you should take the over in the Indy-Arizona and Atlanta-New England games?
I’m going to try something new this week and let you the readers chime in with some thoughts regarding my start ‘em, sit ‘em predictions. If nothing else, this should give other readers more insight into what the majority opinions are, rather than just my own.
Which of Jerod's Week 3 start 'em recommendations do you agree with? (Select all that apply)
- QB Trent Edwards (44%, 308 Votes)
- RB Steve Slaton (36%, 251 Votes)
- WR Derrick Mason (15%, 104 Votes)
- TE Brent Celek (34%, 236 Votes)
- D/ST Denver Broncos (25%, 177 Votes)
Total Voters: 701
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Which of Jerod's Week 3 sit 'em recommendations do you agree with? (Select all that apply)
- QB Carson Palmer (31%, 170 Votes)
- RB Cedric Benson (46%, 250 Votes)
- WR Donnie Avery (43%, 235 Votes)
- TE Ben Watson (28%, 153 Votes)
- D/ST Dallas Cowboys (33%, 178 Votes)
Total Voters: 544
That’s it for this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em lineup advice and projections column. As I mentioned above, use the comment section to its full extent. Let’s get some good fantasy tips, Q&A, and discussion going and help everyone get prepared for their Week 3 matchups.
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* – Carson Palmer photo credit: Rick Stewart/Getty Images via DayLife
* – Brent Celek photo credit: 2 Minuted to Midnight Green
