The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009’s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

• Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
• Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
• Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
• StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
• StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

• The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
• The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007’s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

• Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
• James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
• The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

• Brandon McDonald led the team with five
• Sean Jones had four
• Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
• Mike Adams had two
• Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

• Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
• Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
• Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

*********

* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Chief among those reasons: they are, after all, the Cleveland Browns.

There is certainly a lot of Browns hate floating around as we approach the first week of the 2009 NFL season. Peter King of SI has predicted that Cleveland will finish with the league’s worst record, 2-14, and be a game worse than even the Detroit Lions. Take a a few minutes to sample the power rankings at sites like ESPN, FoxSports, and elsewhere. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that while the Browns are not quite the worst team in the NFL, they are not too far away.

So what the hell am I thinking trying to approach a Browns 2009 season preview with the goal of disproving the conventional wisdom? Am I totally off my rocker sitting down this morning in search of legitimate reasons for why Browns fans should have hope heading into 2009?

The answer to both questions is: I’m not sure.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Cleveland Browns tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

But here I am, and here you are, and damnit, at the end of the day this is the NFL we are talking about. If a Dolphins or Falcons or Ravens fan had set out to write a similar post before last season began, they would have been looked at as fools too. And we know how that turned out.

Consider the following:

• The Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens entered 2008 with new head coaches who had no head coaching experience. The Browns enter 2009 with a new head coach who actually has head coaching experience.
• The Dolphins and Falcons had been bad for a while. They were not a year removed from a 10-win season, as the Browns are.
• The Falcons and Ravens entered last year with first round rookie QBs starting. The Browns have one guy a year removed from making the Pro Bowl…who will likely be the backup. Brady Quinn, the Browns’ own first round, first-year probably starter at least enters this season with a couple of years of NFL experience under his belt.

Somehow, despite so many odds seeming to be stacked against them, the Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens all made the playoffs last year. Time and again in the NFL we see teams rise from the depths of low-to-no expectations to shock the football world by winning 9, 10, 11 games. 2007 in Cleveland was a prime example.

So no matter how bad you expect the Browns to be in 2009, remember that the Dolphins and Falcons were expected to be just as bad, if not worse, in 2008. And look where they ended up.

But simple, general, implied correlations such as what I’ve just done mean nothing. A Lions fan could say the same thing. So could a Raiders fan. It’s time to get specific. We all rationally understand, based on recent NFL history, that teams going from worst-to-first is not a freak phenomenon in the NFL.

For Browns fans — my long-suffering and frowning brethren who are desperately grasping for hope, for something legitimate to believe in heading into 2009 — what are some real and team-specific reasons why 2009 could be the season when we put the wait for next year on hold?

1 – Eric Mangini will see your 4-12 record, and raise you a playoff berth

Forgive the somewhat obtuse poker analogy, but this fact remains: Eric Mangini has already proven that he can immediately take a team from 4-12 (the Browns’ record in 2008) to the playoffs. He did it in 2006, his first year with the Jets, after New York had played to win the games in 2005 but did not win many under Herm Edwards.

Interestingly enough, the parallels to do not end there.

You may recall that in 2004, the year preceding the Jets’ 4-12 stumble and Edwards’ eventual ouster, the Jets went 10-6.  Similarly, as I know you will recall because I’ve already mentioned it, the Browns went 10-6 in 2007, the year prior to their 4-12 collapse in 2008 that led to the ouster of then-head coach Romeo Crennel.

So for Eric Mangini, this is already charted territory. The man has done it once, which should give Browns fans a legitimate reason to think that he can do it again.

(Note to all Browns fans: for the sake of our ever-diminishing sanity, let’s forget for the moment the fact that Mangini’s Jets yo-yo’d back to 4-12 in his second year, completing a four-year run of 10-6, 4-12, 10-6, 4-12 that we would obviously like to avoid.)

2 – Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley have nowhere to go but up

Let’s get one given about the 2009 Browns out of the way right now. We all know that this is a team still in need of more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thus, the playmakers that they do have absolutely must play up to their capabilities this season.

Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are, unquestionably, two of the five most talented players on the Browns roster (along with the consistently solid Joe Thomas, Josh Cribbs, and Shaun Rogers…at least he was last year). Both Braylon and Kamerion were awful in 2008, despite already having proven that they can succeed at the NFL level. These two must play much closer to their potential for the Browns to have success in 2009.

And there is every reason to believe that they will do so.

Braylon Edwards is the player that I correctly pegged as the key to the Browns season in 2008 after we watched him struggle in Week 1 against Dallas. Sadly, I was proven correct as Braylon’s awful season was symbolic of the entire team’s failure last year.

But this is still a guy who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft, who has shown that he can produce yards and TDs in big numbers, and who should be entering his prime at 26 years old.

In 2007, we probably saw Braylon’s ceiling. In 2008, we probably saw his floor. In 2009, we just need to see a very good receiver, which Braylon is perfectly capable of being. And if Braylon is only very good — putting on hold, for a moment, any expectation of him being great — he should produce 75-85 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards, and 8-9 TDs. These are not unreasonable numbers.

And think about it: if Braylon had just been good last year, as opposed to decidedly awful, the Browns probably win one or two more games.

Auspiciously, Braylon has appeared better and more focused this preseason (3 rec, 51 yards, TD in the Browns’ most recent preseason game) and should be more consistent if the Browns pick one QB and stick with him.

He can’t be worse than he was last year, and that alone will make the Browns better.

On the other side of the ball, Kamerion Wimbley is, like Braylon, a former first round pick with worlds of talent. He is also, like Braylon, prone to inconsistency and had his worst season as a pash rusher last year. After a great rookie season in which Wimbley got 11 sacks, he fell to only 4 last season.

So like Braylon, we have probably seen Kamerion’s floor. I’m not quite sure we have seen his ceiling yet, however; and the combo of Eric Mangini and new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may just be able to unleash it. The Jets and Raiders (where Ryan coached last season) were both in the top half of the NFL in sacks last year. Say what you will about the ability of Ryan’s Raiders to stop the run — they couldn’t — but they did a decent job of getting after the passer.

And he is, after all, a Ryan.

The Browns have Shaun Rogers and D’Qwell Jackson as the centerpieces of their quest to improve the run defense. And let’s be honest, it could improve and still not be very good. Kamerion Wimbley, on the other hand, is the centerpiece of the Browns’ pass rush, and there appear to be new strategies in play (such as moving him around more) to make him more effective.

Kamerion has too much talent to pick up only four sacks this year. If he can get back into double-digits, which he is perfectly capable of doing, the Browns’ defense will improve. An improvement by Kamerion alone won’t make the Browns defense great, and might not make it good, but it will at least make it better.

Assuming these two immensely talented players can play closer to their abilities than they did last season, it should make the Browns 2-3 games better. I suppose it’s fair to say that we should expect such improvement at our own risk, but it’s at least a reason for hope. 

Remember, we’re Browns fans. Hope is all we have.

3 – The pieces are in place for the Browns to be far more effective running the football

A lot of blame got heaped onto Derek, Brady, and Braylon for the Browns’ offensive struggles last season, and deservedly so; but the running game provided little in the way of backup. The Browns finished 26th in the league in rushing last year with a paltry 3.9 yards per carry. Unless you have a healthy Kurt Warner with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at receiver, that’s just not going to get it done.

Much was made of the Derek-to-Braylon and Derek-to-Kellen and Derek-to-Jurevicius combos that made the Browns’ 2007 offense so successful. But did you realize that the Browns also finished 10th in rushing that year and averaged 4.3 yards per carry?

With Brady Quinn likely to get the nod at QB, and two rookies plus a QB-turned-kick-returner-turned-wide-receiver likely to be among his top five targets on the outside, the Browns will have an inexperienced passing game in 2009 that will undoubtedly be a work in progress. Where we have the best combination of experience and talent is in the backfield.

And, as with the assumed improvement of Braylon and Kamerion, I think it’s safe to assume that the running game will be better in ‘09 — in large part because it cannot possibly be worse.

Jamal Lewis is a former freak-of-nature-type stud who could bowl over defenders and run by them at the same time. Now tumbling down the 30-and-over running back hill, Lewis lacks breakaway speed and can be painfully slow to the hole. What he can do, however, is churn out tough yards while wearing down defenders, block effectively, and provide much-needed leadership on an offense that is devoid of it.

I’ve heard whispers that the Browns should cut ties with Lewis because of his diminishing skills as a runner. That’s a myopic viewpoint. This will probably be his last year in Cleveland, but he will still be valuable, for the reasons mentioned above, even if his carries are reduced (which they should be) and he’s only a 3.8 yard per carry back.

Where my excitement and optimism about the Browns running game comes from is the presence and flashes of brilliance that we’ve seen from Jerome Harrison and James Davis. I’ve written at length about these two players and their potential for success in 2009 here and here, so I won’t repeat myself. Suffice it to say, as long as Eric Mangini and Brian Daboll make good on their promise to get these guys more involved, the Browns will be a better running football team in 2009.

Something else to keep in mind: while everyone focused on the Jets’ passing game and Brett Favre last season, they were surprisingly effective running the football. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington led a ground attack that finished 9th in the league in rushing.

And one more thing to keep in mind: Eric Mangini comes from the Bill Belichick school of coaching, where you focus on what players can do, as opposed to what they cannot do, and put them in positions to succeed and maximize their value to the team. One example that proves this is the Jets’ superb use of Leon Washington last year.

The previous Browns coaching staff always seemed hung up on what players could not do, as evidenced by their exasperating unwillingness to get Jerome Harrison consistent touches. The guy averaged more than 7 yards per carry! No one thinks he can keep that up with 100-125 carries, but he certainly is part of the solution to the Browns ground woes and I expect the new coaching staff to recognize this. 

[Editor's Note: As someone astutely pointed out to me after posting this, Romeo Crennel also came from the Belichick school of coaching.  And to that I say...he must not have listened very well. Hopefully Mangini was a better student.]

Time will tell how effectively Mangini and Daboll can direct the Browns offense, but the Jets’ success running last season plus the versatility of the Lewis-Harrison-Davis trio has me optimistic that we will be much better on the ground this year than we were last year. We sure as hell (broken record alert!) can’t be much worse. And that right there is another reason to hope for and expect improvement. 

Finally, here a few additional quick-hit reasons for Browns fans to have hope heading into 2009:

– Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are playmaking, ball-hawking cornerbacks who have flashed the potential for both greatness (the home Monday night win over the Giants) and for punishing lapses in focus (the devastating Broncos loss). As they gain experience and enter their prime, improvement should be inevitable. Add to this the fact that Eric Mangini is a secondary coach at heart and in experience, and I think we can safely assume that one position for which focus should be less of a problem this year is the defensive backfield.

– Josh Cribbs, whose contributions to the team’s 2007 success were never fully appreciated in my opinion, looks energized this preseason. Obviously something needs to be done with his contract, but if Cribbs can stay healthy and not fight nagging injuries like he did last year, he will make the Browns better on offense and special teams.

– The Browns’ schedule, in theory, should be more palatable than last year’s. While the NFC North looks to be much improved this year, the AFC West has only one good team. And if Baltimore continues its trend of being good one year and then bad the next, it could provide two in-division opportunities for victories that were not there last year.

Just a quick glance at the schedule reveals the following eight games that are very winnable: at Denver, vs Cincinnati, at Buffalo, at Detroit, at Cincinnati, and the last three games of the year: at Kansas City, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville. If the Browns are indeed a better football team in 2009, and can find a way to just go 6-2 or 5-3 in these eight games, a 7-9 or 8-8 or *gasp* even better record is possible.

And those final three games, against teams that no one is pegging as playoff-caliber heading into the year, could prove valuable if the Browns somehow are in contention for a playoff spot.

So, in conclusion, Peter King can take his 2-14 prediction and shove it.

I like Peter King and read his Monday Morning Quarterback column religiously, and after last season’s debacle I suppose anything is possible. When your team is picked to compete in the AFC, you get five prime-time games, and then you fall flat on your face, it’s hard to really argue when an outsider shows a lack of faith.

But there are reasons for hope in Cleveland that many prognosticators, and even many fans, are not recognizing. Similarly, there were reasons for caution heading into last year that many prognosticators, and certainly many fans, turned a blind eye towards. The unexpected happened in 2007 and the unexpected happened in 2008, so who’s to say the unexpected won’t happen in 2009?

I realize that I may be setting myself up for another season of disappointment and heartache, but I’m beginning to get excited and optimistic about the 2009 Browns. I honestly have no idea if we will be better or if we will be worse, and the truth is that nobody does. This is the National Football League aka Not For Long aka No F’ing Logic, a league where the unexpected has ironically become the expected.

Eric Mangini has already proven that he can defy conventional wisdom and expectations in his first year with a new team, and the Browns have certainly proven they can defy conventional wisdom and expectations with their performance the last two years. But, alas, this is the Browns we are talking about, a team notorious for its consistent ability to suck the hope and optimism out of its fans by a seasons’ end.

So call it a coping mechanism, call it foolhardy positivity, or even just call it crazy. Either way, while the fresh-cut-grass smell is still emanating from another NFL season set to begin, with every team sitting there even at 0-0, I will once more jump on the bandwagon of optimistic hope and believe that the unexpected can indeed occur in Cleveland.

We’ll see. 

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* – Cleveland Browns helmet logo credit: Wikipedia

* – Eric Mangini photo credit: New York Post

* – Braylon Edwards photo credit: The Repository (Canton, OH) via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

* – Kamerion Wimbley photo credit: AP via DayLife

And remember, if you are a Cleveland Browns fan, there is no greater Cleveland Browns resource online than the Orange & Brown Report. So click over there and register for premium access. The best part: you get a 7-day free trial to realize how kick ass it is. We know that with Eric Mangini in charge, information will be hard to come by. No one will have more than these guys.

If you don’t want to do the premium access right now, at the very least follow the OBR on Twitter for the latest Browns news as it happens.

Also, follow these links to StubHub for great deals on 2009 Browns tickets or tickets to all NFL games.

Okay, I’ve shilled enough (but I do mean it, these guys are great). Onto the Q&A:

Q: I heard Gil Brandt on Sirius say that the reason the Browns have not announced their QB yet is because they are trying to trade Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson and do not want to hurt the trade value for either. Is there any truth to this, based on what you know? And how do you see the QB situation shaking out?

Barry McBride: Gil Brandt is obviously a great football mind and still well-connected in NFL circles. This isn’t a new thought, however. It’s something we’ve discussed on the OBR ever since Eric Mangini announced that there would be a quarterback competition back in March during the scouting combines.

At the time, there was a lot of speculation that the Browns would deal either Quinn or Anderson for draft picks, and it made no sense to reduce the trade value of either by declaring one of them to be the team’s backup. It’s certainly possible that one or the other will still be dealt, and that this is why Mangini is waiting, although there isn’t anything visibly percolating at the moment.

Another way to look at it is that neither quarterback has stepped up and grabbed the job by the throat. The Browns hoped that either Quinn or DA would make it a non-issue by their performance this Summer, but both quarterbacks continue to demonstrate their respective strengths and weaknesses as expected. Neither has really stepped their game up to the point where the job was clearly won, although Quinn still seems to have the edge.

One other thing to keep in mind is that Eric Mangini’s penchant for secrecy dates back to his time as a defensive coordinator working for Bill Belichick. He has said that one of the toughest things for him to overcome as a defensive coordinator is not knowing which quarterback he will be facing in the coming weeks. He may simply be holding off declaring a winner to make it harder for the Vikings to plan for the season opener.

Q: One of my thoughts regarding DA and Brady is that while Brady should, theoretically, be less prone to the boneheaded mistakes we’ve become accustomed to with Derek, having Derek as the starter would be better for Braylon. And with the Browns devoid of proven playmakers on offense, putting Braylon in the best position to succeed may be the best move for us offensively. Do you agree?

Barry McBride: I like how you’re thinking, but I’m not sure I’m fully on board.

The first thought that springs to mind is that the biggest challenge to Braylon Edwards’ success since 2007 has typically been Braylon himself. While undeniably talented, Edwards seems to suffer from lapses in focus that aren’t dependent on who is quarterbacking. He has memorable dropped touchdown passes that have been delivered to him from both Quinn and Anderson in the past, as recently as the first preseason game against the Packers when Quinn hit him in the back of the end zone.

If anything, Quinn’s softer touch with the football might help Edwards hold onto the ball somewhat, although Anderson’s ability to stretch the field obviously makes Edwards a threat on every play, as does Anderson’s sometimes stubborn desire to focus on getting the ball to him even when dealing with double or triple-coverage.

One other factor that suggests that Quinn might ultimately help Edwards is that it’s critical for the Browns to have credible #2 and #3 receiving threats, and a credible threat of runners catching passes out of the backfield as well. Anderson has a tendency to continually attempt to feed the ball to Edwards (and Winslow in past years), and Quinn’s tendency to go through his progressions quickly might force opponents to take the Browns’ other receivers far more seriously and help reduce the amount of attention that Edwards gets from opponents.

I suspect that we’ll ultimately really only know how Edwards would fare under a full season with Quinn at QB is to give that option a chance, and see how he does.

(As I am posting this, Phil Dawson just kicked a field goal. Browns close the gap to 7-3.)

Q: As a fan who is 1,000 miles away from the action, I can only look at stats and quotes in the paper to make a judgment. With QBs though, leadership, intangibles, huddle command, etc., are so important. Between Derek and Brady, who seems to have more respect from their teammates? Who “commands” the team better? Or have they not separated themselves in this regard either?

Barry McBride: I would give the edge here to Quinn as well, based on what I’ve heard through OBR reporters like Lane Adkins and Fred Greetham.

With some strong personalities on the Browns (as with every team), it’s critical that there not be a question about who is in charge in the huddle. As we’ve been told by players themselves, there’s no question when Quinn is on the field that he’s running the show. Although it’s never been said outright by his teammates, by extension, one can infer that Anderson may be somewhat less of a take-charge guy. I have to add, however, that Lane Adkins has relayed this year that Anderson’s approach in that department has taken a step up. He has a little more of a swagger about him than in past years.

Full disclosure: Someone reading the last two answers may conclude that I’ve got my mind made up about who I think would serve the Browns better in the long run. To that, I have to say, “guilty as charged”.

I was an advocate of drafting Quinn, have advocated giving him opportunities faster, and have been skeptical about Anderson ever since we got our first prolonged exposure to him during 2007 training camp. He’s clearly got tremendous athletic ability and potential that makes offensive coordinators salivate, but I admit that I still see the same quarterback from Oregon State highlight films: rocket arm, sprays the ball all over the field, and has a very high dependence on getting good protection and having receivers who will out-muscle defenders for the ball. That all came together to support him in 2007, and he was a Pro Bowler. It didn’t happen in 2008, and I don’t see it happening in 2009, either. On a team that has those attributes around him, Anderson could be very successful, but the Browns just aren’t there.

Q: Okay, well that about wraps things up. Wait…oh…there are 21 other starting positions on the Browns this year? Who knew?

What is the status of the contract talks with Josh Cribbs? When I watched the Detroit preseason game, it reminded me that we do, in fact, have a gamebreaker other than Dropsie Edwards. To me, especially with his improvement as a WR, Cribbs’ contract demands are not in any way outlandish. Are Mangini and Kokinis just playing a cat-and-mouse game with Cribbs and planning to sign him, or do you think they just are not convinced yet that he is worth more than he is making?

Barry McBride: Cribbs has agreed to come in, practice, and play despite lack of visible progress being made on his contract. Obviously, he’s a key component of the Browns special teams, but the team itself claims to be mystified as to how to price a return man (and obviously is not wanting to give Cribbs the same money that the Bears laid out for Devin Hester). The Browns are also, like most NFL teams, reluctant to tear up a contract with two years left. Although it should be noted that this reluctance rarely is in evidence when players are under-performing rather than out-performing their deals.

As luck would have it, the preseason has given Cribbs a chance to make a serious push for the #2 WR role which, if he wins it, bails both him and the team out by providing some more guidance about where Cribbs’ price should be, as well as a stronger rationalization for doing so. The Cribbs saga has yet to play out, but has already been marked by some of the worst mainstream media reporting I’ve ever seen, as both local and national media elements carve headlines out of virtually nothing more than having their previous assumptions about Cribbs’ intentions proven wrong.

Q: There have been rumblings recently that James Davis could start sneaking his way into more first team action. How patient will Mangini be with Jamal Lewis if Jamal continues to be slow to the hole and sports a 3.5-3.8 yard per carry average? And how does Jerome Harrison fit into this equation? Mangini seemed committed to getting Harrison the ball based on comments from early training camp, but Davis appears to have passed him over the last week. When will Jerome get back on the field and how do you see the attempts being split up between he and the rook?

Barry McBride: I don’t see Davis and Harrison as being much in conflict since they’re different types of backs. Harrison, although he gets more yards after contact than I would have expected, still primarily fits the mold of an NFL third-down back, whereas Davis is more of a between-the-tackles runner, like Jamal Lewis. I see Davis as spelling Lewis, with Harrison appearing more in third down situations. What Davis’ emergence means to Harrison is that he’s less likely to get opportunities to serve as an every down back, although I considered that to be somewhat questionable in any event.

If the interior of the Browns offensive line can’t hold holes open for longer than they have in the preseason, Lewis’ opportunities will go down, since Davis is quicker to the hole. This won’t make Lewis happy, as he still seems to firmly believe he’s most effective with 20-25 carries per game. While statistics bear that out for his career as a whole, it’s a dubious notion at this point.

Q: Real quick before we move to defense, what can Browns fans expect from the offensive line this year? Obviously Joe Thomas is an anchor on the left side, but will this year’s line be closer in performance to the 2007 unit or last year’s sieve?

Barry McBride: I wouldn’t expect 2007-level performance, simply because I don’t believe that Pork Chop Womack can perform at the same level that Ryan Tucker did during that year. We found out in 2008 how critical Tucker was to that unit and to helping out the undersized Hank Fraley and new right tackle Kevin Shaffer. It’s no coincidence, in my view, that the team’s best performance last year came in the one game where Tucker appeared. He has been on and off the practice field all preseason, and I don’t anticipate that he’ll be able to help take the right side of the Browns line up to the next level. Womack and John St. Clair have been steady and professional, although St. Clair has shown in the preseason a tendency towards ill-timed penalties.

Alex Mack has a very good shot of displacing Hank Fraley at center, but we’ve already seen him dealing with the rough NFL learning curve. In the AFC North, he’ll have to contend with some of the best nose tackles in the league. Expect mistakes to be made as Mack adjusts to the NFL.

Q: Braylon Edwards is the only “sure thing” in the receiving corps (except when wide open passes come his way, of course). How have the rookies looked? And is Mike Furrey (only a few years removed from a really good season in Detroit) an under-the-radar acquisition to could have 50-, 60-catch impact and play a QB-friendly role like what Joe Jurevicius was in ‘07?

Barry McBride: Furrey looks like a very good third receiver so far, which the team has missed ever since Dennis Northcutt went on his way. It’s doubtful that he could equate to what Jurevicius did (since Furrey will be out of the slot, and JJ was a #2 WR, in any event). It looks like he might be a smart fantasy football pickup late in the draft based on his performance so far in the preseason. He will probably get 30-40 catches from what I’ve seen so far.

Brian Robiskie has been a little bit disappointing since being hyped as a pro-ready NFL receiver, but such hype rarely proves true. Both he and Massaqoui are dealing with the usual struggles you see receivers suffer in their rookie season. At this point, Massaquoi may be higher on the depth chart based on his performance to date. He has looked very solid both in practice and games and should be in line for some playing time as the season begins.

Q: We know that everything defensively revolves around Shaun Rogers, with D’Qwell Jackson providing steady performance at LB, but it seems to me that for the Browns to to improve defensively, two things need to happen: Kamerion Wimbley needs to get to 11-12 sacks and fulfill the potential he showed as a rookie, and the Eric Wright-Brandon McDonald combo needs to become more consistent. Do you agree? And is there anything inherent in the new system/coaching staff that should help these players improve this seson?

Barry McBride: The Browns really needed to improve their game up the middle, and adding Eric Barton alongside D’Qwell Jackson seems to be a terrific move so far. Rod Hood has given Brandon McDonald a little push, but the team’s early scouting of corners for next year’s college draft convinces me that neither may be seen as the long-term answer there. A bigger question at this point is at safety, where the team has little depth behind starter Brodney Pool, whose ability to play is in question following last week’s game. Pool has a concussion history and the team has not revealed why he appeared to woozily walk off the field. If Pool is not available, the Browns defense will suffer.

Wimbley has a chance to perform better this year for a couple of reasons. The first is that the team has improved their consistency and depth in the defensive line, with C.J. Mosely providing a solid addition, and Wimbley needs that in order to have a lane to the quarterback. Secondly, the coaching staff has shown much more enthusiasm for moving Wimbley around from right to left, which is something Romeo Crennel rarely did. By making Wimbley’s position on the field less predictable, he has the possibility for greater success. It will ultimately be up to him to take advantage of his role in this defense.

Q: The NFL is notorious for having teams go from worst-to-first. In the AFC North, Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champ, Cincinnati is starting to become a popular darkhorse candidate for improvement with Carson Palmer back, and though they seem to be terrible every other season and lost Rex Ryan, Baltimore is still Baltimore. Put on your optimists hat (if you can): why is not an outlandish idea for Browns fans to dream of an AFC North title? (Or is there simply no reason to do so?)

Barry McBride: It’s always possible, as long as meteors and comets are around that could possibly smash into Pittsburgh or Baltimore while their respective teams are practicing. Or, better yet, when the two face off in the same stadium.

Outside of that, it’s going to be a rough road for a Browns team that still needs to show that it can get consistent performance on offense and stop the run effectively on defense. Three possibly optimistic signs: (1) This team did go 10-6 just a couple of years ago, so there’s more talent than is obvious from last year’s 4-12 record; (2) Barring the loss of Pool. they could always get lucky with injuries, which is always the great unknown going into every season; and, (3) Mangini did manage to turn the Jets around during his first year as head coach.

An 8-8 season is not totally unreasonable, but I still believe that the team has a significant uphill battle ahead of them. They face six tough games within the division, and will have to have a large number of things go right for them in order to make noise in the AFC North.

Thanks for the great questions!!

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[Editor's Note: And we thank Barry McBride for taking the time to answer our questions.  Now that you've enjoyed the Q&A, hop on over to the OBR and sign up!]

* – Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson photo credit: Getty via FanNation

As far as setup goes, I don’t really know much on the background of these videos, except that it looks like they are at a movie theater. And from the subject of the questions, I am going to assume that they are at the premiere of Yes Men, starring Jim Carrey.

In this first one, Browns QB Brady Quinn is put on the spot to answer the question “What is the craziest thing that you have ever said yes to?” Watch:

Just in case the video doesn’t show up, Brady Quinn answered “Skydiving…without a parachute.” He certainly appeared to be a little uncomfortable and was obviously searching for something clever to say. If he wanted to give an honest answer, he probably should have said posing for this unfortunate picture, or whatever was going on at this wedding. Or how about that one wild night with Bret Michaels?

Now let’s assume for a minute that Brady Quinn was telling the truth — that he really did go skydiving without a parachute. As any Browns and Notre Dame fan knows, this would not be a big deal because in addition to his ability to walk on water, Brady Quinn can also fly, is immortal, and his right arm is more powerful than the incredible Sword of Omens from ThunderCats, giving Brady-Q, like Lion-O, “sight beyond sight” and other special powers.

(I’m not quite sure where the ThunderCats references came from, but I just spent half hour procrastinating even more by watching YouTube videos of my favorite childhood cartoon. Yeah, a lot is going to get done at work today.)

But, if Brady Quinn did indeed skydive without a parachute, I wonder why he did not just use Braylon Edwards’ hat — which you can see in the video that follows. Braylon comes in at about the 0:30 mark, after Martin Rucker and before Eric Wright.

Although, I think that if anyone did jump out of an airplane wearing that hat, they might never come down. And I am disappointed in Braylon. He had a perfect opportunity to ingratiate himself to Browns Nation by saying “going to Michigan — boy was that crazy!” in response to the same question Quinn was asked: “What is the craziest thing you’ve ever said yes to?” Another missed opportunity for Braylon Edwards, but that has been the theme of the 2008 season so it is not surprising.

What is surprising is that while the Browns two biggest stars, Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards, seem completely uncomfortable having to think on their feet and answer a brain-splitting question like “What is the craziest thing you’ve ever done,” rookie Martin Rucker is calm, cool, and collected and immediately comes up with a good answer. Maybe Rucker should play quarterback? His arm couldn’t worse than the guy playing QB now.

And Eric Wright’s response was a little curious. He responds right away by seeming to present his date (or at least the girl who is there with him) as his answer, then quickly does the “cut this off” motion with his hand near his neck as if he will be uncontrollably compelled to say something incriminating if he stands there any longer. He should have answered “wearing a NY Yankees hat as a professional athlete in Cleveland.” As we know from LeBron James and Braylon Edwards, Cleveland fans do not take too kindly to their players supporting teams outside of Cleveland.

There were some other members of the Browns organization that should have been asked this question. Some potential responses to “What’s the craziest thing you’ve ever said yes to?”

Phil Savage: “Last month I got an email from a Bills fan and I decided to respond. That was pretty crazy!”

Rob Chudzinski: “The craziest thing I’ve ever done is foolishly giving the ball to that one running back on our roster because everyone in the organization, all of the fans, and anyone with a working brain told me I should. I guess he’s done okay, if you consider 7.9 yards per carry and 11.7 yards per reception okay. Seems pretty lame to me. Damnit, what is that guy’s name?”

Jerome Harrison: “Believing that our offensive coordinator knew my name, and that I’d actually get more playing time if I performed well. What a crazy thing to expect.”

Kellen Winslow: “Man, I’m a solider! All the s–t I do is crazy man.”

I could go on an on. But I actually need to get some work done. So I’ll leave it up to you to answer the following questions in the comments:

1. What are your nominees for best made-up answer by a Browns player to the question “What is the craziest thing you’ve ever said yes to” in light of the 2008 collapse?
2. If you can’t think of anything, just answer the question for yourself.

(Sunday morning update: The Browns have lifted the suspension of Kellen Winslow after text messages surfaced from a Browns PR employee that pressured Winslow to keep quiet about his staph infection.  Winslow will still not play against the Jaguars.)

It has been suggested in the comments sections here at Midwest Sports Fans that those of us who cover the Cleveland Browns consistently exhibit too much optimism about this year’s team. The irony, of course, is that “optimism” and “Cleveland Browns fans” are very seldom found in the same sentence. I am not a lifelong Browns fan, but have grown into a zealous one over the past five years; once thing I have learned about the Browns and their fans that even in the best of times, there is a resounding and perpetual fear of the proverbial “other shoe dropping.”

I am prefacing my preview of the upcoming Browns-Jaguars game in this way because for the first time this season, my gut instinct is telling me that the Browns will lose to the Jaguars. In every game so far this season, had I been forced to bet my savings based on my gut feeling, I would have placed it on the Browns. This week, my gut is telling me the Jaguars.

My hope, however, is that after analyzing the game I can come up with a rational and reasoned prediction that gives my gut feeling the middle finger and still allows me to pick the Browns anyway.

Let’s move on now, to the keys for the Browns-Jaguars game in Jacksonville this Sunday at 4:30 on CBS:

Key #1: The Jaguars running game against the Browns run defense

Talk about hitting the negatives head on right from the get-go. Clearly, this is the biggest mismatch in the game, and the primary reason for my gut fear about Sunday. We know that the Jaguars love to establish a clock-controlling running game behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. And we know that the Browns have been gashed this season by Clinton Portis, Bill Clinton, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Le’Ron McLain, Willis McGahee, Willis Reed, Marion Barber, Marion Jones, Felix Jones, Felix the Cat…pretty much anyone who has taken a handoff against the Browns D.

In two out of Jacksonville’s three wins, either Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor has gone over 100 yards. As a team, the Jaguars run for 116.5 yards for game (actually lower than I expected) while the Browns give up 8,798.5 yards per game on the group (actually, “only” 146.3). But the Jaguars have been running it better lately, minus the Pittsburgh game, and the Browns run defense has shown no signs of improving. Still, the Browns D has forged a very strong bend-but-don’t-break mentality and given up only 14 points to both the Giants and Redskins despite strong days from their running backs.

No question, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are licking their chops for this weekend. I am hard-pressed to find a reason why they won’t combine for 150 yards rushing between them. Clearly, this is a huge advantage for the Jaguars.

However…

Key #2: The Browns’ play-making secondary against the David Garrard

The highlight of the Browns season so far has been the play of Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald. In two consecutive games, Eric Wright has stepped up and 1) sealed the Giants win with a Pick-6 and 2) given the Browns a chance to win with his timely strip of Clinton Portis in the 4th quarter. For the Jaguars, Matt Jones will likely play this weekend as his appeal for the cocaine-related suspension gets worked out. This is bad news for the Browns, because Matt Jones is a tall receiver with speed (with Plaxico Burress) who could find success if he gets matched upon on the human turnstile Terry Cousins. And Jones is the only reliable receiver that David Garrard has had this season.

For his part, Garrard has been uncharacteristically careless with the football this season. He has already thrown 4 INTs, to go along with his 4 TDs. We know that the Jaguars will be able to run against the Browns — but so has everyone else, and the Browns defense has still kept scoring down. There will be a few opportunities for Eric Wright, Brandon McDonald, and Brodney Pool to make game-changing plays on Sunday. For the Browns to have a chance, they must convert these opportunities into momentum changers for the Browns. I see no reason, based on the results of this season so far, to believe that they won’t be able to make the plays when they are there.

The advantage here goes to the Browns, and it is imperative that this hold up for the Browns to have a chance at the road victory.

Key #3: Derek “Damnit” Anderson and Braylon “Dropsie” Edwards

As always, the Browns chances come down to these two maddeningly inconsistent offensive “leaders.” Look at the Browns results so far this season. In the one game the offense played well and the Browns won convincingly, Derek Anderson had over 300 yards passing and Braylon Edwards played like the star his talent suggests that he is. In their other five games, including the ugly Cincinnati victory, Derek Anderson has been below 167 yards passing and Braylon Edwards has been, well, pathetic.

Why can this week be different? Who knows. Maybe it won’t be. DA and Braylon are making it very difficult for me to profess faith in them and maintain any credibility or appearance of sanity. The only silver lining I see is that Jacksonville is giving up nearly 230 yards passing per game. As a team, Jacksonville is actually giving up 10 more yards per game overall than the Browns defense, which seems surprising based on reputation. The truth is that Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards proved last year that they are talented enough to put up numbers against any defense when they are confident, focused, and in rhythm.

But which Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards will show up? The superstars who played great in the Giants game and reminded us all of last year? Or the turds who have shown up in every other game this year, frustrating Browns nation to the point that our faith in a potential Quinn-Steptoe combo is on par with Anderson-Edwards right now. Derek and Braylon stepped up in the biggest game of the year, on the biggest stage, against the best opponent. They fell flat in all five other games. This is a complete toss-up that no one can predict, yet will decide the outcome of the game.

Tell me again how anyone consistently makes money gambling on the NFL??? No-Frieking-Logic.

I guess I will have to move onto a tie-breaking Key #4. Let’s see, where could we go with this one…

Coaching? Jack del Rio has a little bit better track record than Romeo Crennel. So no.

Venue? Crap…Jacksonville is at home. So no.

Team Focus and Mindset? Jacksonville has been dealing with their trasher wide receiver from Arkansas getting suspended for cocaine use. Ho hum, it’s the NFL…and he’s from Arkansas. Cleveland is dealing with a star player and management at odds over a problem, staph infections, that threatens the team’s future ability to sign free agents. The story has been front page news all week. Damnit…no, can’t use that one either.

Wait, I’ve got it!

Special-Bonus Key #4: Joshua Cribbs

Here is the difference in Sunday’s game folks. The 2008 coming out party for Browns special teams superstar Joshua Cribbs. In 2007, Cribbs returned three kicks for touchdowns and seemed to push the momentum in the Browns favor and switch field position every time he touched the ball. This year, Cribbs has been slowed by injury as well as by the general malaise and ineffectiveness that has plagued all of last year’s big-play producers.

But not on Sunday.

I am not basing this prediction on any statistical analysis, film breakdown, or advanced scouting report. So feel free to flame away in the comments section and call my entire prediction bunk (Much Need Reality Check, I’m talking to you). Feel free to disregard this entire preview and prediction for ultimately being based more on an evolved gut feeling from when I started than from anything specific I learned during the process of researching/writing this article.

But here is the final verdict: For 59:50 seconds on Sunday’s game, Jacksonville will appear to be the better team and will, in fact, produce more points than the Cleveland Browns. For 10 glorious seconds, however, Joshua Cribbs will remind us of his 2007 greatness and announce his 2008 presence. I don’t know if it will be the opening kickoff or a punt late in the 4th quarter; but I know this: Joshua Cribbs is taking one to the house on Sunday. This play, along with one or two huge game-changers from the defensive backs, will allow the Browns to sneak out of Jacksonville with a W in a game in which the Jaguars will “appear” to be the better team.

But it’s the NFL. The “best” team on any given Sunday does not always win on that given Sunday, and games are usually won or lost as a result of two or three big plays that can trump the other 59:30 of the game. I don’t care if Derek and Braylon step up or not, and I’m done worrying about it because it’s driving me crazy. But the Browns are a desperate team who have capable playmakers outside of their mercurial QB and WR. and these underrated players are going to will the Browns to a win.

Jacksonville 20 | Cleveland 14 | Joshua Cribbs 7

Add it up, and it’s a 21-20 victory for the Cleveland Browns and a still-hanging-on record of 3-4.

I guess those previous post commentators here at Midwest Sports Fans were right — I can’t even talk myself out of irrational optimism for the 2008 Cleveland Browns.

[tags]cleveland browns, jacksonville jaguars, joshua cribbs, nfl, football[/tags]

In scrolling the Cleveland Browns news feed on our Browns page, I noticed a few stories that caught my eye in the aftermath of one of the most significant wins for the Browns this decade. (Think for a second before you scoff at that notion and try to name five more significant wins than Monday night. I dare you. That’s what the comments section is for!)

Anyway, here are a few interesting notes, plus video of Brady Quinn introducing John McCain at the Republican rally last week:

1 — Congratulations to Browns cornerback Eric Wright. On the strength of his stellar all around game Monday night, and his sublime 4th quarter interception and subsequent touchdown, Eric Wright was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week. As a Browns observer who has watched nearly every minute of football during Eric Wright’s young career, I cannot think of another player (with the possible exception of Brandon McDonald) who has improved more over the past 23 regular season games that Eric Wright. Both are quickly earning reputations as underrated cover corners with above average and timely play-making skills. Most importantly, both Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are quickly assuaging the major concern about the Cleveland Browns coming into the season: their defensive secondary.

2 — I did not realize this until today, but the Cleveland Browns accomplished a feat that is, statistically at least, the team equivalent of pitching a perfect game. In Monday night’s game, against one of the top statistical defenses in the NFL coming into the game, the Browns did not commit a turnover, did not punt once, and did not allow a quarterback sack.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Cleveland Browns became one of only four teams since 1963 to accomplish this feat. In contrast, there have been 11 perfect games pitched in the Majors since 1963. Now, any Browns fans who watched the game and suffered through false start after false start knows that the Browns offense was far from perfect. But, because of their efficiency and ball protection, the false starts never really had any material negative effect.

The next step is to maintain the efficiency of the running and passing game, while eliminating the self-inflicted errors. It is safe to say that Dave Zastudil will be needed at some point, that Derek Anderson will throw an interception, and that he will get sacked at some point. The false starts may be more of a problem then. Romeo, Browns fans implore you to do something to increase the pre-snap discipline of your team while not adversely affecting the confidence and attacking attitude they displayed Monday night.

But certainly, a huge congratulations to the Cleveland Browns for a 95% stellar offensive performance on Monday night, made all the more impressive when you consider that one of the team’s key playmakers (Kellen Winslow) was out.

3 — By the way, there is plenty of new information out there regarding Kellen Winslow. We are covering that in another post specifically about Kellen Winslow and his mystery injury, as well as the trade rumors that surfaced this afternoon.

4 — And finally, I stumbled upon video of a story we covered here last week: Brady Quinn speaking at a rally for Senator John McCain. Here is the video, devoid of any of my usual Brady Quinn commentary:

Actually, you will get a little bit of my Brady Quinn commentary, and it is decidedly positive. Brady Quinn can be an easy target for shallow and cliched ribbing because of his good looks, Notre Dame pedigree, and his inordinate amount of endorsement deals while being a backup. And, of course, the pictures. But I have to say that Brady Quinn has never seemed to be anything other than a great teammate, a leader by example, and worthy of more respect from flippant and irreverent blog writers like me.

Despite being within a few more bad Derek Anderson decisions from finally getting his chance to start, there have been no reports of Brady Quinn causing waves, making selfish comments through the media, or doing anything other than supporting Derek Anderson and putting the Cleveland Browns’ interests over Brady Quinn’s interests.

Seriously, I’ve made plenty of jokes about Brady on this site, but I joke because I care. I like Brady Quinn, and I believe that he will be an outstanding NFL quarterback whether it is in Cleveland or elsewhere. I am sure I will make jokes about him again in the future, it’s inevitable; but, Brady Quinn has also earned my respect and proven to be a valuable member of Cleveland Browns, mainly because of his great attitude, even as a backup.

[tags]cleveland browns, football, nfl, brady quinn[/tags]

Tonight, after witnessing a 35-14 trouncing of the New York Giants by the Cleveland Browns, I am sitting trying to sift through a stunning abundance of positives to pick out a few to highlights, lest I be up until 4:00 in the morning analyzing this game. I’m riding such high right now that reliving this game until 4:00 a.m. actually sounds pretty damn good.

Where do we start?

It has to be with Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards. Coming into tonight’s game, Derek Anderson was the lowest rated QB in the league and his spot as the Browns’ unquestioned starter was in doubt. Braylon Edwards, coming off a 16-TD season, had been held to under 100 yards receiving through four games. The Giants had the best defense in the NFL coming in. So what happened? Well, this is the NFL (which now officially stands for No F-ing Logic) so exactly the opposite of what “should” happen: Derek Anderson threw for over 300 yards and 2 TDs and Braylon Edwards caught 5 passes for a career-high 154 yards, a touchdown, and a two-point conversion. They hooked up early a deep bomb in which only a shoestring tackle kept Braylon from the endzone, and the two kept rolling from there.

Braylon Edwards did have a few miscues. He dropped a ball and committed a pretty comical false start penalty. But tonight is not a night for nit-picking (FALSE STARTS!!!!); and Braylon Edwards delivered a huge performance in a clutch spot, living up to the old Santana Moss axiom that “big players make big plays in big games.” Despite his rocky start, Braylon Edwards is a big-time player and he proved it tonight. I said earlier in the year that Braylon Edwards is the key to the Browns season. His two best games (actually, his only two competent games) have come in the last two, both Browns victories. This team needs Braylon Edwards to be a top-5 wide receiver to compete with the elite teams. Tonight, he was outstanding and the Cleveland Browns knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs.

Derek Anderson finally looked comfortable and confident in the pocket. He stepped into his throws, he spread the ball around, and he avoided the costly turnover that has plagued him when he has come up short in key spots. Kudos also go out to the offensive line who, despite way too many false start penalties, gave Derek plenty of time to drop back, be comfortable in the pocket, and locate receivers downfield. Justin Tuck and the Giants defensive line had been dealing well with the loss of Michael Strahan. The Cleveland Browns’ offensive line neutralized them tonight. It paid off.

Other offensive highlights included continued tough running from team leader Jamal Lewis, a few more electric plays from Jerome Harrison, and the return of Donte Stallworth. Stallworth’s return should not go unnoticed. He did not stuff the stat sheet, and probably should have come up with the fade route in the endzone, but even Braylon Edwards admitted in the postgame that Stallworth opened up the field for him. Without Kellen Winslow out, another receiving threat was necessary. The speed of Donte Stallworth provided that threat. And in Kellen Winslow’s absence, the substitute soldiers Steve Heiden and Darnell Dinkins came up huge. Heiden provided a reliable safety valve for Derek Anderson all night, and Darnell Dinkins came up with a huge TD catch.

The offense was oustanding tonight and absolutely deserves an A for a stellar performance on the heels of four very subpar outings.

Now onto the defense.

Coming into the season, the biggest question mark for the Cleveland Browns was the defensive secondary. After trading Leigh Bodden, very few people gave the Browns’ secondary a chance to be a game-changing unit — at least in a positive sense. But for me, one of the lone consistent bright spots in this season so far has been the play of Brandon McDonald and Eric Wright. Tonight those two, along with Brodney Pool, played great ball-hawking defense. They gave up a few plays to Plaxico Burress (actually, those happened when Burress was matched up against Terry Cousins) and Steve Smith was able to find seams underneath, but they kept the Giants’ receivers in front of them; and obviously, the interceptions were huge. Eric Wright, Brandon McDonald, and Brodney Pool each picked off Eli Manning once. Eric Wright’s 4th quarter redzone interception and subsequent return for a touchdown sealed the deal.

The interception by Eric Wright is the most auspicious harbinger of a potential turnaround for the Cleveland Browns in 2008. Last year, even with Leigh Bodden, I never truly had confidence that the Browns’ secondary would be able to come up with big, game-changing plays when the defense needed one. Tonight, with the Browns’ clinging to a 27-14 lead but the Super Bowl champs gashing our defense and seeming poised to cut the lead to a one-scare margin, Eric Wright made a ridiculous break on a ball that Eli Manning thought was an easy completion and possible touchdown. Not only did he get there and actually catch the ball, as opposed to just knocking it down, but he ended any chance of comeback by finishing the play by high-stepping into the opposite endzone. The Browns’ secondary may be one of the most underrated units in the NFL. Tonight they highlighted their improvement on the biggest stage, but it is the culmination of five consecutive weeks of consistent improvement.

The run defense was just okay, and that’s probably being ridiculously generous as the Giants rushed 25 times for a 7.2 yard per carry average. You probably won’t win too many games giving up 7.2 yards per carry, unless of course you don’t turn the ball over, don’t punt once, and come up with 3 INTs. If the recipe for winning an NFL game is comprised on ten ingredients, the Browns successfully brought 8 to the table tonight. Shoring up the run defense and eliminating penalties will be points of emphasis for the Browns’ coaching staff as we move forward, but the ingredients the Browns were able to add still coalesced into the sweet taste of a 35-14 victory on national TV in front of the home fans against the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions.

In his postgame interview immediately following the game, Braylon Edwards said, “Everyone watched this game on TV and forgot about the first three games. We’re 2-0, with a brand new 14-game season.” I don’t know if he meant it this way, but a 14-game season assumes three playoff games. At the beginning of this Season of Great Expectations, many Browns fans thought a deep playoff run was a possibility. At 0-3, not even the most audacious Browns fan could still have maintained complete confidence that this team would even get to 8-8.

Can this team make the playoffs? At 2-3, it’s still an uphill battle. But at 2-3, and with parity running rampant across the NFL landscape, the Browns are still very much in the picture.

And at least for one glorious Monday night, in front of a nation of football fans watching on Monday Night Football, the Cleveland Browns looked like one of the NFL’s elite. Are they? We have 11 more games to find out for sure, and there are plenty of rough edges that need to be smoothed out; but this is one hell of a giant step in the right direction.

Congratulations Browns! And to all you haters: Ryan Russell and I told you so!

[tags]cleveland browns, nfl, monday night football, new york giants, football, braylon edwards[/tags]