First, thank you to everyone who understood my main point: that it’s simply too early to say whether or not Timmy will be good or bad yet.  In no way was I trying to say that Tebow will be better than Elway, Marino, and Manning; my point was how do we REALLY know after only five starts?

Second, while Tebow’s struggles have been magnified because Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder have looked so good thus far as rookies.   I think we can all agree that all three of those guys have MUCH better weapons around them than anything the Broncos have this season.

• Cam Newton has FOUR offensive weapons that are better than anyone on the Broncos: Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Greg Olsen.
• Andy Dalton has three: AJ Green, Cedric Benson, and a fantastic defense (seriously…Dalton threw for 160 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs this week…and his team won by TWENTY-TWO!!!! The only way Tebow and the Broncos are doing that anytime soon is if they play Vanderbilt).
• As for the Vikings, Christian Ponder has the best non-QB offensive player in the game on his team (Adrian Peterson) as well as a receiver (Percy Harvin) who is better than anyone in Denver now that Brandon Lloyd is gone.

Once you factor in the defenses (Denver’s is second to last in the league when it comes to scoring defense and worse than Cincinnati, Carolina, and Minnesota in every single category), it shouldn’t surprise anybody that both Tebow and Orton have struggled in 2011 so far with the Broncos.

I guess what’s so troubling to me is the unforgiving stance everyone is taking with Tebow.  Look at the following two stat lines and tell me which QB you would rather have.

• QB #1 – 57 of 118 for 891 yards.  48% completion. 7.55  yards per attempt. 7 TDs, 3 INTs.
• QB #2 – 64 for 137 for 638 yards.  47% completion. 4.65 yards per attempt. 4 TDs, 2 INTs.

Though neither QB is all that desirable, anyone in his or her right mind would take QB #1, who has thrown for more yards, a slightly higher completion rate, and scored more TDs as well.  This is all before taking into account the fact that QB #1 outrushed QB #2 by a margin of 302 to 43 in those games as well.

In this example I’m comparing Tim Tebow to Blaine Gabbert – a guy who was drafted higher than Tebow and who has, so far, gotten through the media scope almost completely unscathed.  In fact, articles have been written explaining why he deserves a free pass for his entire first year.

Once again, I don’t necessarily think Tebow WILL make it as an NFL QB…but shouldn’t we at least make him earn our judgments either way?  Let’s extend to him the same long rookie leash that we give everybody else.

Onto this week’s start em, sit em picks!

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Advice for Week 9

Last Week’s Picks: 21 for 35 (60 %)

Note: last week’s top-line picks were made by Jerod

• Hits: Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Montario Hardesty, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, DeMarco Murray, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Steve Breaston, Eric Decker, Demariyus Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Brent Celek, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels
• Misses: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Johnson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Torain, Bernard Scott, Sidney Rice, Deion Branch, Jake Ballard, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller, Scott Chandler.

As a quick reminder, the following teams have a bye during week 9:

• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Carolina
• Jacksonville

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Quarterbacks

Start Em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

Ryan is currently ranked as the 14th overall fantasy QB, meaning in most leagues he should be a backup.  Fortunately for Matty Ice owners, the Falcons are traveling to Indy this week, where they will face one of the worst pass defenses in history.

Start Matt Ryan with no regrets in week 9.

Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards passing, 2 TDs

Less Obvious Start Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Oakland)

Don’t laugh.

The Raiders have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league this year and have gotten into several shootouts with teams already.  I understand the lack of weapons in the Denver passing game may scare you, but Tebow performed pretty well against Oakland last year (150 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and 2 TDs).

If you have a top 8 QB, you shouldn’t be starting Tebow, but if Matt Stafford or Cam Newton is your starter and thus is on a bye, don’t sweat starting Timmy in week 9.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 9 projection: 140 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, 2 total TDs (and probably two total turnovers also)

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Tony Romo – This week, the Romo Coaster goes back up against the Seattle Seahawks…before throwing his fans and owners off a cliff in week ten against the Bills.
• Philip Rivers – The Chargers will probably be playing from behind, and the Packers’ secondary has been very average so far.

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Pittsburgh)

Don’t be fooled into thinking that since he lit up the Steelers in week one, he will do it again.  He won’t.

I said it a few weeks ago, but I’ll say it again. If you didn’t think Dick LeBeau was a genius before this year, just consider that for over a decade the Steelers have been impossible to run against yet in 2012, as soon as the NFL became a full-fledged passing league, he transformed the Steelers’ defense into the league’s #1 ranked passing defense, allowing opponents a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt.  Unbelievable.

Stay away from Flacco this week.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 9 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Nine:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick – Playing the Jets who are coming off a bye…yikes.
• Ben Roethlisberger – I think this week’s Steelers/Ravens game will be a true throwback affair.

Jerod’s thoughts

I love the Ryan pick, and I think he is a guy who owners need to keep an eye on as we move into the second half of the season. He hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback so far this year, but with a lot of dome games and some favorable matchups coming up, he could be a top-10 QB from here on out, which is all that matters.

As for Tebow, he certainly has more potential value this week than he did last week against the Suh and the Lions, but I think there is a lot of risk there. I want to see him play a decent game from start to finish before I trust my one QB slot to him. What if he’s awful and gets pulled at halftime? Without the backing of his own coaching staff, and how poor he’s looked, I can’t justify starting him unless I’m desperate.

And yes, sit Flacco. He couldn’t get a pass in the end zone last week versus Arizona, and now has zero TD passes in three of his last four games (and in the other game he had just one).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Running Backs

Start Em RB: Beanie Wells, Arizona (v St. Louis)

While I don’t necessarily love Beanie Wells’ prospects for the rest of the season due to his lingering injury issues, I really like him this week against the Rams.  St. Louis has proven to be vulnerable on the ground this season, and Beanie is coming off of a fantastic game against a very good defense in Baltimore.

Despite his lingering knee issues, look for Beanie to have one or two more good efforts before he tails off to end the year.

Beanie Wells fantasy football Week 9 projection: 95 yards rushing, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Michael Turner – Against the Colts…okay this one is too obvious, so let’s just ignore it and move on.
• LeGarrette Blount – At this point, it’s still a little early to completely trust Blount, but I really like the Bucs’ running game this week against a suddenly reeling Saints team.  New Orleans just got lit up on the ground against St. Louis, and the Bucs will be looking to keep Dreww Brees off the field as much as possible.  Give Blount your complete trust this week.

Sit Em RB: Fred Jackson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

I actually like Fred Jackson, who has yet to have a really bad day, a lot for the rest of the season.  However, now is as good a time as ever for that first clunker of 2011 with the Jets coming to town fresh off a bye.

Rex Ryan’s team hasn’t been as consistently good against the run this year as in years’ past, but it was a point of emphasis for their defense all week.  Look for Jackson and the entire Bills offense to have a tough time on Sunday.

Fred Jackson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Nine:

• Redskins’ Running Backs – I think Ryan Torain and Roy Helu can be good backs, but I also think that with John Beck starting the 49ers defense, which is already good against the run, will be able to send an 8th man into the box. This is not good news for the Redskins in real life or fantasy.
• Ryan Mathews – Just trust me that when the Chargers are down 21-0 with 12 minutes left in the second quarter, or Mathews is dinged up again, you will wish you had left him on the bench.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Beanie Wells is a very inviting start this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see him finish as a top 5 overall player this week. Except that I would…because I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratched from the starting lineup at the last second or removed midway through the game because of an injury. Such is life with Beanie Wells. This is a week to definitely have him in your lineup, but just remember to take nothing for granted on Sunday morning.

And while I agree with your basic premise that Fred Jackson could struggle this week, he’s not sitting on any of my rosters. The Jets have not been their previously dominant selves against the run, and Jackson has earned every-week start status for his ability to run and be a receiver out of the backfield. How many true lead backs are there anymore in the NFL? FJax is one. You better have two or three elite 2011 options if you’re even thinking about sitting him.

And I agree on Blount. A great option for this week, and a solid buy low candidate if you’re looking to make a trade.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Wide Receivers

Start Em WR: Julio Jones, Atlanta (v Indianapolis)

At this point, you all know how I feel about Julio Jones.  I think he’s overrated.  I think AJ Green is 4x better than him.  I think Jones drops a lot of balls, and I think he’s a poor route-runner.

And that’s all well and good, but he’s still super-duper talented athletically…and he’s playing the Colts this week.  I expect at least two home run plays from him in yet another Colts blowout loss.

Julio Jones fantasy football Week 9 projection: 125 yards receiving, 2 TDs

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine: 

• Plaxico Burress – He’s already a great target in the end zone, and I have a sneaky suspicion that he and the Sanchize got even MORE acquainted over their bye week.  Even if they didn’t, they are still playing the porous Buffalo passing defense.  Good day for Plaxico.
• Antonio Brown – Ed Reed will be shading towards Mike Wallace all game, and while that won’t completely shut down the speedster, I think that Antonio Brown will rise to the occasion like he did last week and catch a lot of balls underneath, as well as pick up another TD or two.

Sit Em WR: Stevie Johnson, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

Revis Island.  Off a bye week.  Oh boy.

Stevie Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Nate Washington – Cincinnati has been surprisingly great against the pass, ranking fifth overall in passing defense.  Look for Washington to be bottled up, especially since the Titans lack a really reliable #2 option now that Chris Johnson has passed away.
• Patriots’ Wide Receivers not named Wes Welker – Uh oh…the Steelers just showed us that the Pats have absolutely no deep threat.  Needless to say, it’s not Welker’s, Hernandez’s, or Gronkowski’s fault.

Jerod’s thoughts:

At this point in the presentation, I can deduce two things: you think Atlanta is going to roughshod over Indianapolis (safe prediction) and you trust Rex Ryan and the Jets’ D to shut down a Buffalo offense that has been pretty good this year (a riskier but not outrageous bet). With that said, I agree with you on sitting Stevie Johnson, assuming someone has strong depth at WR. Stevie is not devoid of value, because he has a nose for the end zone, but Darrelle Revis has certainly locked down better receivers.

I also like Julio Jones this week. I don’t love him, because I think the Falcons have moved away from trying to force-feed him the ball. His targets will now come more in the flow of the offense, and if the Colts jump out to a big lead over Indy – a likely occurrence with Atlanta’s ability to run the ball – then they won’t need to take as many shots down the field. I think it’s a good matchup for Jones, but without the upside you seem to think.

One guy not mentioned that people need to keep their eye on is Michael Crabtree. He is healthy, and having Braylon Edwards opposite him will “take the top off the defense” as they say. Alex Smith looks at Crabtree first in the passing game. In PPR leagues especially, he will be golden for the rest of the year.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v New England)

After seeing Heath Miller step out of the time machine and look like a young Tony Gonzalez on Sunday, I’m willing to say that the Patriots have a VERY difficult time stopping opposing tight ends.  I fully expect Eli Manning to take note of that, and use Jake Ballard a lot, especially early on in Week 9.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Nine:

• Dustin Keller – He’s having a solid year so far, and Sanchez loves him nearly as much as Plax in the red zone.
• Vernon Davis – He will have a nice bounce back week against a Washington defense that is actually pretty good.  Look for Alex Smith to check down quite a bit to the big tight end.

Sit Em TE: Scott Chandler, Buffalo (v New York Jets)

There’s no way he scores any more TDs this week against the Jets.

Scott Chandler fantasy football Week 9 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’m now officially beginning to wonder if Rex Ryan wrote this article. You chose a Bill as your sit em RB, WR, and TE, and you mentioned the Bearded Wonder in your “other” section under the QBs. Jon, bro, we get it: you think the Jets’ defense is going to have a strong effort coming off the bye.

I love Ballard. Eli Manning always seems to turn his tight end into a fantasy relevant commodity as the season goes along. Same thing is happening here.

As for Chandler, he made me eat my disparaging words last week, but I agree with you that starting him would make me very nervous this week. He has value, because he’s always a TD threat, but it’s all or nothing with him. Just know that when you start him (and know that none of us can predict with any certainty when he will or will not find openings in the end zone).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Em, Sit Em: D/ST

[Editor's Note: because we would not allow Jon to pick the Jets’ defense as his “start ‘em” defense/special teams unit, he decided to boycott this last section of the post. What a baby. So these picks are made by Jerod.]

Start ‘em D/ST: Oakland Raiders (v Denver)

Every year I try to target specific offenses that are so inept as to make even mediocre defenses valuable for one week. The Broncos made the Dolphins’ rag-tag defense very valuable two weeks ago, and an already strong fantasy defense in Detroit become out-of-this-world valuable last week.

This week, the Broncos and struggling QB Tim Tebow face Oakland. The Raiders are physical up front, which is the same formula the Lions used to pressure Tebow last week. Until the young QB proves he can avoid sacks and fumbles, I’m starting any D going up against the Broncos.

Also working in your favor if you nab the Raiders: Jacoby Ford. He’s a weekly threat to get you a bonus TD.

Oakland D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 17 or fewer points allowed, 4+ sacks, 2+ turnovers, 1 TD

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I like both the Pittsburgh and Baltimore defenses this week. I agree with Jon that this game will be an old school battle. (If by some chance you have to pick one or the other, go with Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco is playing far worse than Big Ben right now).
• I’d want to stay away from Washington offensive players this week against San Francisco, but the Washington defense isn’t a bad option. The 49ers have to travel cross-country and play an early game, which is rarely a good recipe for success for West Coast teams. And with San Fran already being more of a running team than an explosive passing team, it limits their potential to put up big scoring numbers, especially against a solid D like Washington’s.

Sit ‘em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v Dallas Cowboys)

I don’t know how many people have been employing the Seahawks D, but there was a groundswell of support for them a few weeks back because they are decent against the run. While that remains true, and the Seahawks have some decent matchups moving forward, I don’t like their chances against an angry, embarrassed Cowboys team that gets to lick its wounds at home this week.

The Cowboys’ offense isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought it would be coming into the season, but it’s much better than it showed last week. The poor Seahawks will feel the brunt of it this weekend.

Seattle D/ST fantasy football Week 9 projection: 27+ points, 2 or fewer sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Nine:

• I wouldn’t want either the Giants or Patriots defenses going this week. That game just smells like one that gets into the 30s on both sides.
• The Jets’ D is not as obvious a start candidate as Jon would have you think it is, and I do not say this just to needle Jon. While I like the Jets’ D is general, they simply have not been a dominant unit this year, and the Bills have been a pretty consistent offense. I would not at all be surprised to see this game played in the 20s, which means the Jets would need a defensive TD or a bunch of sacks/turnovers to turn in a great day. It’s possible, but I don’t consider it likely.

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Best of luck to everyone in Week 9.

Make sure you also take a look at Andy’s waiver wire wire pickups for Week 9, and then load up the comment queue with questions. We’ll be around all week to answer them, and of course we’ll be here on Sunday morning to help out with those difficult last minute start/sit questions.

Staying on the topic of quarterbacks, this week we will see some newcomers who will be thrust into the starting role. Though you shouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Christian Ponder to make headlines in Minnesota, we’ve got other names to know for you in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Tim Tebow

As a real football player, there really is not a lot to like about Tebow; but this is the fantasy world.  Regardless of how many passing yards he throws for, his legs are your best asset.  Down on the goal line he is realistically a better option than any other Bronco running back, so if you are in a league with 10+ teams, don’t be afraid to start him.

Jay Cutler

The offensive line did OK against Minnesota last week and should do better when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay.  Look, Jay is just as skilled as any quarterback in the league when it comes to throwing the ball, but he needs time to do so.

Curtis Painter

Now, in a week where arguably 4 of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks are on a bye, the field is wide open for options of who will fill that spot on your roster.  The stock of Painter is only up for logistical reasons: going on the road and facing a New Orleans team who will most likely have the Colts down 14 or more at half will prompt Painter to take control and throw the ball a lot.

DeMarco Murray

Felix Jones is hurt, so it looks like Murray should get the start.  I’m getting the feeling that after a loss, bye week, and another loss, the Cowboys may want to get their running game going if they wish to be relevant in 2011.

Montario Hardesty

Young backs are another trend this week as Montario Hardesty looks like a valuable option.  Yes, the Seahawks are one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league, but someone has to take the carries with Peyton Hillis sitting out with that hamstring injury.  10 points in a standard scoring league seems reasonable.

Kevin Walter

While he does not command a double team quite like the injured Andre Johnson, Walter does get some respect from defenses.  Regardless, he will be targeted early and often whenever Houston does decide to throw the ball.

Doug Baldwin

There may be two 6’4” receivers in Seattle, but this little 5’10” guy is playing bigger than everyone else.  While the Browns do have the 4^th ranked pass defense in the league, Seattle is still going to put up some numbers at home.  Add to that the fact that top cornerback Joe Haden is likely to sit again with a knee injury, and Baldwin could be Cleveland’s toughest matchup.

Kevin Boss

His production has not been stellar thus far, but his role could be increased greatly very soon.  With Carson Palmer getting off the couch and onto the field, the best friends for a new and/or rusty quarterback like that is a running game (check) and a tight end to throw to.  Let’s see how this goes. (And surely Kyle Boller, who will likely start this week as Palmer gets acclimated, will look to his tight end too.)

San Diego D/ST

This matchup looks very good if you have this defense.  The Chargers are good against the run, something that the Jets feel they need to establish but haven’t so far this year.  Mark Sanchez has inconsistencies that fall into the lap of the defense if they are able to establish a decent pass rush.  Ignore the coast to coast travel and start San Diego. Go Chargers! Go!

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Matt Ryan

Sorry Matty Ice, but you just haven’t performed well against the defenses of the NFC North this year.  Is it a coincidence that the Bears and Packers were the only teams to hold him to under 10 fantasy points this year?  Maybe, but the Detroit defense as a whole will bring problems for the Falcons.  That pass rush is vicious. Nobody has been doing well against it and I just don’t see it starting now.

Joe Flacco

I love Joe Cool as much as anybody, but this week he falls victim of the circumstance.  The Jags couldn’t stop the Steelers’ running game last week, and in football if a team can’t stop the run, then the ball will just continue to be shoved down the throat of the defense, lowering Joe’s value this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Can you name a significant playmaker on the Jags’ offense besides this guy?  Seriously.  Obviously there is nobody else but MJD, and going against the best defense in the NFL, things are looking bad.  If there is anything positive about his numbers it is that he is averaging 95 yards a game, but if you are looking for a 15 point performance, that’s not happening, because he just doesn’t get into the end zone enough anymore.

Willis McGahee

Yes, he has been very impressive ever since he took over the starting duties in week 2, but with Tim Tebow on the field, his value drops as the Broncos get closer to the end zone.  This is a very unfortunate situation given the fact that he had been playing so well, but this league is a business and people want to see Tebow with the ball.  It’s just Tebow fever for Denver (and you can tell as I used his name more than Willis in his own paragraph).

Larry Fitzgerald

The Vikings held Larry to 6 points last week and you can expect a similar score this week against Pittsburgh.  Even though the schemes are different, the two defenses are structured closely in terms of talent and what they do.  The other problem facing Arizona as a whole is that it doesn’t look like they know what to do with some decent talent on that offense.

Brandon Lloyd

Not 100% sure why Denver pulled the trigger on this deal because it looked as if Lloyd and Decker could coexist.  Regardless, he is in St. Louis now, but don’t expect much from him fresh off of the trade.  He needs to learn some things about the offense and Sam Bradford is ailing as well. Lower the expectations if you can.

Dustin Keller

When you do the math, Keller seems like a good choice for a starting tight end, but not so fast my friend.  With the dysfunctional Jets offense, it’s hard to think that Keller will see any real involvement.  For New York this year it has been either ground and pound or airing it out with very little to the tight end.

Atlanta D/ST

I don’t like to harp on teams, but didn’t a lot of people pick this team to go to the Super Bowl?  Maybe it is their schedule that puts them up against team’s with a lot of fire power on offense or is it that they just aren’t that good?

As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets.  No worries.

At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.

As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.

Week Six Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness:  Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones

Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez

• Misses: None

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3

• Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

• Misses: Benjamin Watson

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15

• Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4

• Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
• Misses: Jahvid Best

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
• Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8

• Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
• Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram

#####

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• New England
• NY Giants
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well.  Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense.  Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams.  I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling.  Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week?  Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB.  If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
• Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year.  Big day for Stafford and Co.
• Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
• Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers.  Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert

Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore.  Yikes.

Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Cam Newton

Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass.  Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively.  Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
• Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against?  So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt.  Wow.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.

As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)

I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

Monday Night Football against the Jaguars.  Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Ryan Torain

Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run.  Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.

Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
• Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
• Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run.  Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways.  Big day for Michael Turner.

Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs

Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.

Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards

Sit Em – Willis McGahee

The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.”  They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league).  This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games.  Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.

Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter.  Just think about it.
• Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
• Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.

Moving on now…

I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.

As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time.  Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dwayne Bowe

He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary.  Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
• Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week.  Rodgers will get him involved again.
• Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one.  Plus, he’s money in the return game.
• Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints.  Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

I almost feel bad for the guy.  His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Vincent Jackson

A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis.  Not a good combination.

Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards 

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
• Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
• Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.

I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham

He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.

Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Fred Davis

Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.

Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:

• Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.

Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe

Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.

Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards

Sit Em – Dustin Keller

Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.

Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.

Jerod’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST

[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]

Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys

Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
• Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.

Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings

I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.

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That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

Also, don’t forget that if your NFL fantasy team is struggling, or you’re just getting bored with the NFL, our friends over at Daily Joust over weekly college fantasy football games with real money prizes at stake. Check them out:

Not that it needs to be noted but it seems as if the only thing going for the Eagles is LeSean McCoy.  First and foremost, as it cannot be stressed enough, this is a passing league now.  Running backs are such a replaceable piece that you see multi-million dollar players such as DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson putting up peasant numbers.  Owners, don’t pull your hair out yet as there are some pleasant surprises as well in this week’s stock report.

Stock Up

Cam Newton

In just the 4^th week of the season, the Panthers’ rookie is already at the 100% owned mark.  The sobering 14-point game could be justified in part because of the heavy rain but this week presents a brighter outlook.  The Bears have shown the inability to stop the downfield passing game so Cam could have his way.

Rex Grossman

He just has a love/hate vibe going on out here in the fantasy world and it comes with good reason.  One game you get the respectable 18-point game and then you get the 10-point question mark.  Cut him some slack because last week against the Cowboys, the game was wackier than ever with those 9 field goals.  Going to St. Louis should help out as the Rams are 31^st in total defense.

Tim Hightower

Nothing is going to help Grossman more than the versatile man behind him.  Not only will he run the ball adding to his numbers but the biggest thing is his production catching passes out of the backfield.  Already with 68 touches through the first three games, the Redskins look like they are going to invest a lot of the offense in what Hightower can do.

James Starks

Having to split time with Ryan Grant hurt his fantasy numbers just a bit, but now that Grant is banged up Starks receives more of the timeshare.  Also banged up is the Denver defense.  With all the focus on Aaron Rodgers, one can’t help but to think of Starks re-living his 2010 postseason.

Nate Washington

Owners of Nate Washington must be happy that he is going to be the focal point of the passing game for the rest of the season but please curb your enthusiasm.  Going up against Joe Haden and the Browns 3^rd ranked pass defense is no easy task, but when you are on a team where the star wide out is gone and the 2,000 yard back has yet to hit stride, expect many targets.

Lance Moore

One would think that with the addition of Marques Colston back in the Saints lineup would hurt Moore’s production.  Not a chance.  The defense in New Orleans is far from the best but a rookie quarterback could give their offense a couple more possessions.  As the running game falls more into the abyss each week, video game numbers could be expected.

Dustin Keller

A quarterback’s best friend is always said to be a strong running game.  While that may be true, Mark Sanchez is still going to have to throw the ball this week.  Nothing is better than a tight end who catches more than 5 balls a game and will prove to be the number one safety valve against a stingy Ravens defense.

Chargers D/ST

Ranking in the bottom third of fantasy defenses would scare most people away but look at it this way.  Negative 7 of their 7 points this year came against the Patriots and Tom Brady.  This week presents Chad Henne.  You should like your chances.

Stock Down

Tony Romo

The ribs are getting healthier but the same cannot be said for his receivers; at least for now.  No Miles Austin and a Detroit defense that is better against the pass than people expected.  A lot of the “experts” are calling for a classic shootout but for some reason this game is shaping up to have a similar outcome as last week’s 8 point outing.

Mark Sanchez

Oh what a bad week ahead for the “Sanchize”.  The only thing that ever gives Baltimore trouble on defense is that one playmaker who can do everything or who has the ability to make a play that deflates the defense.  LT needs to bring his skills of 5 years ago back on Sunday because when you look at the Jets offense as a whole it is really just average at best.

Reggie Bush

If you thought things were looking up for Reggie when the Dolphins first said they would put most of the workload on him then look away, quickly.  With an increased amount of carries going a different way and not very many targets in the passing game, his value is dropping very fast.

DeAngelo Williams

With the initial jolt of excitement over Cam Newton now passing along, is it time that we all see Mr. Williams take his place in the offense? Probably not.  Actually, not at all for the rest of the season.  It’s a simple matter of adding a couple of things up for an equation that most owners won’t like.  Like it or not, Cam Newton is the big dog in Carolina and with the Panthers expecting to play from behind a lot this year, the running game is going to take a backseat.  More like the last seat in an Astro van.

Plaxico Burress

Regardless of the fact that Burress gets a ton of red-zone targets and deep balls, the defense that the Jets are going up against this week just won’t let all of that happen.  Add to the fact that he won’t be 100% this week is cause for some red flags.

Mike Williams

This goes twofold for the player in Tampa Bay and the one in Seattle.  Tampa Bay Mike doesn’t have any teammates at the same position to take some of the defensive pressure off of him.  Seattle Mike has the opposite of that problem as the addition of Sidney Rice has made quarterback Tavaris Jackson look in the other direction a lot.

Owen Daniels

The last time these two teams faced off, the Steelers go the best of the Texans’ Daniels.  He may get a lot of targets (9 just last week) but we feel that this defense still has something to prove even if the first week of the season is in the past.

Bengals D/ST

This defense may be ranked number 6 as far as fantasy points go but they haven’t gone up against an offense that really puts up numbers yet.  That streak ends Sunday when the 3-0 Bills come to town with their new look spread offense.  Long story short, negative numbers could be on the horizon.

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

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Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

I’ll provide a few names at each position that are owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues who might be able to provide more of an immediate impact than someone else on your roster.

Important note: Just because I list someone here doesn’t necessarily mean you should drop your struggling starter. You may have a superstar who is just starting slow (Ray Rice owners, I’m talking to you), or even just a solid guy who hasn’t hit his stride yet. Everything is relative. If you have a specific question, pose it in the comment section here.

And don’t forget to check out our Week 3 player rankings and this week’s Start/Sit column.

(Players are listed with Yahoo ownership percentage, then our Week 3 rank in parentheses.)

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers at WR

Kevin Walter (40%, 24th) vs Dallas

I know this guy’s owned percentage will go up after he turned in another terrific performance in Week 2. Right now, Walter is the #2 guy in Houston over Jacoby Jones. Matt Schaub loves him and Walter is a guy who has proven himself to have a nose for the end zone in the past. With an expected shootout looming this weekend against the Cowboys, I expect another strong performance from Walter.

Mike Williams (TB) (39%, 35th) vs Pittsburgh

You know I don’t like rookie WRs, and I have plenty of misgivings about Mike Williams, a guy who dropped on draft day because of character concerns; but…he’s caught two TDs in two weeks and the Bucs are facing the Steelers this weekend. Pittsburgh will shut down the run and force Josh Freeman to throw the ball. With Williams appearing like his go-to target right now, he could have a decent day and possibly even put up another score. And they are at home, which usually helps rookies feel more comfortable.

Louis Murphy (9%, 45th) at Arizona

Murphy performed well when Bruce Gradkowski replaced Jason Campbell, hauling in a second half touchdown and finishing the day with 6 catches for 91 yards. He also had 4 catches in Week 1 and has always turned a decent percentage of his catches into TDs. Oakland plays a porous Arizona defense this week. If Gradkowski starts again, and even if he doesn’t, Murphy is a deep sleeper who could help out WR-starved teams.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Sleepers at TE

Dustin Keller (48%, 4th) at Miami

No need to belabor this one. Sanchez loves Keller and he had a great Week 2. He’s a solid long-term option and will be owned in more than 50% of leagues once the waiver term expires.

Jermaine Gresham (38%, 18th) at Carolina

This guy is already one of the most talented tight ends in football. He just needs experience and some time to build rapport with Carson Palmer. Six catches in two games proves the Bengals will give him opportunities, and at some point he’ll take them and (literally) run with them. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that be this week against Carolina.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our Week 3 sleepers at QB, RB, and Defense.

The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.

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Looking back at my Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em post as I begin Week 4′s, and it was a pretty solid week.

The definite hits: Derrick Mason (start), Brent Celek (start), Denver D (start), Carson Palmer (sit), Ben Watson (sit), Donnie Avery (sit).

The definite misses: Trent Edwards (start), Dallas D (sit).

The ones I predicted relatively well but touchdowns (or lack thereof) skewed value: Steve Slaton (start), Cedric Benson (sit).

All in all, a pretty solid week, and hopefully most of the 157 comments on that post led to sound fantasy decision making for everyone.

And now, it’s time to do it all over again.

As we pointed out in our recently posted NFL Week 4 TV schedule, odds, and picks post, the following teams all have byes this weekend: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles. Obviously keep that in mind when you’re setting your lineups.

And remember: I’m trying to avoid the obvious choices here and instead pinpoint guys that folks might be on the fence about. And as we do every week, I will do my absolute best to answer every question that comes through in the comment section.

[Editor's Note: At some point in the not-to-distant future, MSF will be holding special, "members-only" Sunday morning live chats to help you out with all of your last minute fantasy football decision making. We are going to be hosting these sessions at our new MSF community at Explodium.com.

I'll be writing a post at some point soon telling you about Explodium, but it's pretty badass. When you click on the link, you do have to sign up, but it's free...and trust me, the benefits are there well beyond our Sunday morning fantasy help.]

Now, onto the Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks:

Fantasy Football

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Kansas City)

Last week against Tampa Bay, Eli Manning completed only 14 passes for 161 yards but connected on two TD passes. The rapport that he is developing with Steve Smith is awesome for fantasy owners of both.

For the season, Manning now has five TD passes and only one INT, throwing two touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.

Kansas City is 20th in the NFL against the pass so far this year, and that includes one of their three games coming against the inept JaMarcus Russell. After Kevin Kolb torched the Chiefs last weekend, they have now given up five TD passes and intercepted only one.

The Giants are still a run-first team, but Eli will be able to pick his spots and have another solid day.

Eli Manning Week 4 projection: 200 passing yards, 2 TDs

Other QBs I like in Week 4: Carson Palmer (@ CLE); Shaun Hill (vs STL); Jay Cutler (vs DET)

Sit ‘Em: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (at Pittsburgh)

Philip Rivers was a revelation last season, tallying 4000+ yards and 34 TDs. So far in 2009, however, Rivers is only on pace for 16 TD passes. I think Rivers is fine, and I have him as a #1 QB in a couple of my leagues, but I don’t like his matchup this week at all.

Pittsburgh is now 1-2 after losing to Cincinnati last weekend. Still, the Steelers held Carson Palmer and a pretty good Bengals’ passing game to only 183 yards and 1 TD.

At home, with their backs against the wall a bit, I think the Steelers are going to come out and deliver a nasty defensive performance. Without a healthy LT in the backfield — or  a rusty one if he returns — to balance out the SD offense, I think Rivers could find the going tough against the Steelers, even with Troy Polamalu still out.

(For the record, I am not sitting Rivers in any of the leagues in which I have him, mainly because I don’t have a better alternative. Remember, whether you start someone or sit them is all relative based on your roster. Just temper your expectations for Rivers this week.)

Philip Rivers Week 4 projection: 240 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other QBs I don’t like in Week 4: Aaron Rodgers (@ MIN); Ben Roethlisberger (vs SD);

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘Em: Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos (vs Dallas)

It looks like the time may be here to start penciling Knowshon Moreno into your lineups on a weekly basis.

The talented rookie rushed 21 times for 90 yards a score against the Raiders last Sunday. No, the Raiders are not great at stopping the run, but neither is Moreno’s Week 4 opponent Dallas.

The Cowboys are 17th in the NFL right now against the run, giving up 114.7 yards per game, and I think the Broncos will feed Moreno the ball early and often this week.

In PPR leagues, Moreno’s value is not quite as high, as he has only caught two passes this year. But with 17 and 21 carries over the last two weeks respectively, it looks like Moreno has vaulted over Correll Buckhalter for the #1 RB job in Denver.

That makes him worthy of a start in most leagues.

Knownshon Moreno Week 4 projection: 85 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other RBs I like in Week 4: Cedric Benson (@ CLE); Matt Forte (vs DET); Whoever starts at RB for the Redskins (vs TB) — check the injury reports on Clinton Portis this week and pick up Ladell Betts if Portis can’t go; Leon Washington (@ NO); Glen Coffee (vs STL)

Sit ‘Em: Fred Taylor, New England Patriots (vs Baltimore)

Fred Taylor was his old, awesome self last week against Atlanta, rumbling for 105 yards and a score. You will be tempted to start him this week, but keep two things in mind:

1. Baltimore’s defense is still great even without Rex Ryan, and they are giving up only 51 yards per game on the ground without having yielding a TD this season.
2. You never know which New England running back will get the carries in a given week. Taylor has carried 9, 8, and 21 times this season, and still shares a backfield with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Laurence Maroney.

Taylor will always be a threat this season to vulture a TD, as he did in Week 1, and he is the guy to play from the New England backfield if you have to play one of them this week. But there should be better options out there than a 33-year old running back in a pass-first offense against the league’s best run defense.

Fred Taylor Week 3 projection: 35 yards rushing, 0 TD

Other RBs I don’t like in Week 4: Steven Jackson (@SF); Reggie Bush (vs NYJ);

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos (vs Dallas)

After an understandably slow start to the season, considering all his self-created off field distractions, Brandon Marshall appears poised to reclaim his spot among the top fantasy WRs.

His 5-catch, 67-yard, 1-TD performance last week against Oakland should be all the convincing you need to get him back in your lineups and keep him there.

The Broncos may be a fraudulent 3-0, but winning and being in first place have a way of getting even the biggest malcontents to play hard. I still don’t trust Dallas’ secondary (and neither should you, as they are 27th in the NFL against the pass) but, like Josh McDaniels, I am starting to trust Brandon Marshall more and more each week.

Brandon Marshall Week 4 projection: 7 catches, 105 yards, TD

Other WRs I like in Week 4: Braylon Edwards (vs CIN) — but ONLY if Derek Anderson starts at QB; Chad Ochocinco (@ CLE); Jerricho Cotchery (@ NO); Steve Smith (@ KC);

Sit ‘Em: Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys (at Denver)

Through three games, Roy Williams has only eight catches for 179 yards and one score, which came in Week 1 against the terrible Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary. And during last night’s Monday night game, Williams let a potential TD pass bounce off of his hands.

With the Dallas running game looking more and more dominant by the week, something tells me Tony Romo will continue to rely on it and be a little more reluctant to take as many shots down field. That, combined with Williams’ horrible matchup this week — Denver is currently 2nd in the NFL in pass defense and has not given up a TD pass while notching five INTs — make him a worthy candidate to sit if you have decent alternatives.

Roy Williams Week 4 projection: 3 catches, 34 yards

Other WRs I don’t like in Week 4: Marques Colston (vs NYJ) — but with the caveat that I will probably start him in my leagues, despite the fact that he’s facing Darrelle Revis, who has been superb in shutting down opposing teams’ best WRs; Dwayne Bowe (vs NYG); Ted Ginn Jr (vs SD)

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Before I get into this week’s tight ends, can I just pat myself on the back a bit for touting Vernon Davis all year. I picked him as a “start em” guy and a sleeper in Weeks 1 and 2 and watched him struggle a bit, but still maintained that this will be the year Davis becomes a star.

Ironically, last week when I picked Brent Celek instead of Vernon Davis, the 49ers’ freak of nature tight end went off, catching seven passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns.

Unless you have another really good option moving forward, I consider Davis close to a weekly start.

Start ‘Em: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (at New Orleans)

Dustin Keller struggled last week against Tennessee, catching only two passes. This comes on the heels of a three catch day against New England. I think it’s fair to say that Keller will have his ups and downs this year, especially with a rookie calling the shots at QB, but he does have a good matchup this week against New Orleans.

Consider the following facts:

• New Orleans is ranked 22nd against the pass this year in terms of yards
• In Week 2, the Saints allowed eight catches and 104 yards to Eagles TE Brent Celek
• In Week 3, the Saints allowed five catches and 34 yards to Buffalo TE Derek Fine

Hence, opportunities should be there for Keller to have a solid afternoon. There are better options for sure, but if you own Celek or Tony Gonzalez, both of whom have byes this week, Keller is a solid fill-in candidate.

Dustin Keller Week 4 projection: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Other TEs I like in Week 4: Vernon Davis (vs STL); Owen Daniels (vs OAK)

Sit ‘Em: Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings (vs Green Bay)

Not only does Shiancoe only have six catches all season, but Green Bay has not given up more than two receptions to a tight end in any game. Even as a bye week fill-in, there are much better options that Shiancoe.

Visanthe Shiancoe Week 4 projection: 2 catches, 17 yards

Other TEs I don’t like in Week 4: Greg Olsen (vs DET); Ben Watson (vs BAL)

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘Em: Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Browns)

This one is pretty easy.

Cincinnati has a much improved defense that is ranked in the top half of Yahoo leagues. This week, they face a Cleveland Browns team that appears to be historically bad.

Don’t overthink it, even though it’s the Bengals.  Start ‘em.

Cincinnati Bengals Week 4 projection: 13 or fewer points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 INTs

Other D/ST units I like in Week 4: San Francisco (vs STL); Buffalo (at Miami); Chicago (vs DET)

Sit ‘Em: Denver Broncos (vs Dallas Cowboys)

The Broncos currently have the #1 rated defense in Yahoo. However, remember that two of their games have come against the two worst offenses in football: Cleveland and Oakland.

This week, Denver plays Dallas, which has the best backfield trio in the league. The Cowboys aren’t explosive enough in the passing game to put up huge numbers on Denver, and Tony Romo will probably turn the ball over once or twice, but I wouldn’t expect Denver to keep getting as many sacks or holding their opponents to three points every week.

Denver Broncos Week 4 projection: 20+ points given up, 1 sack, 1 INT

Other D/ST units I don’t like in Week 4: New England (vs BAL); San Diego (@ PIT)

And other edition of Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is in the books. Chime in below to let everyone know which of my picks you agree with or disagree with (remember, you can select more than one option) and then use the comment section to pose your Week 4 questions.

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* – Philip Rivers screaming photo credit: Hugging Harold Reynolds

* – Eli Manning drunk photo credit: OddJack.com

* – Brandon Marshal photo credit: Call It Mile High