NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

No position in the NFL is more highly scrutinized, debated, and discussed than the quarterback. It’s impossible to build a consistent winner without one (and people who follow the Cleveland Browns would tell you that it’s impossible to find one period).

After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

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NFL Power Rankings: Week 9 (It’s Not Unusual to Have the Saints at #1…)

Another great week of NFL action: the Colts won (but looked human), the Saints continue to roll, and the Giants continue to spiral out of control.

It seems like every week brings more drama to the stage during what has been a very exciting season thus far that we are now halfway through.

One thing is for sure….THE REDSKINS DIDN’T LOSE THIS WEEK! (But the Browns did!)

[Editor's Note: There you go dick Myles. Keep rubbing salt in the wound jackass buddy. Keep kicking Browns fans when they're down you no talent ass clown my friend.

I can't wait until Peyton Manning retires and your one-man franchise returns to sucking and all of its fair-weather fans go away.  Go ahead, shake your head. But you know it's true.]

Now, onto this week’s Power Rankings.

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Monday Night Football: Falcons-Saints Spread, Analysis, Prediction

Editor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.

Check out Sadler’s Monday Night Football Recipe of the Week: Sadler’s Smokehouse Shaved Pork Loin Pockets

Visit the Sadler’s Smokehouse website: Sadler’s Smokehouse

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Monday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (6-0)

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (6-0)

• Falcons-Saints Date: Sunday, November 1st
• Falcons-Saints Kickoff Time: 8:30 PM
• Falcons-Saints TV Network: ESPN
• Falcons-Saints Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Falcons-Saints Point Spread: Saints -11 (as of Sunday morning)
• Falcons-Saints Over-Under: 55 (as of Sunday morning)
• Falcons-Saints Spread Pick by Jerod: This will be another tremendous game and my temptation is to pick the Saints and not think about it. But Atlanta is a good team that just ran into a well-rested, ready-to-go team in Week 7 that was coming off of its bye. I do think the Saints will win, and I’m sure they’ll put up a ton of points, but I think the Falcons can keep this one closer than the 10 points they are being given. Falcons-Saints free pick: Falcons +10

Falcons-Saints MNF Preview and Analysis

In their first intra-divisional game of 2009, the New Orleans Saints, the NFC’s lone unbeaten team, look to start 7-0 for just the second time in team history (1991). It comes on the heels of their most difficult win, last weekend in Miami.

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I’ll Tell You This: WRs on the Move, the MLB Playoffs, and Who is the Best QB in the NFL?

1. 49ers Barking Up the Right (Crab) Tree

Finally, early on Wednesday morning, the 49ers and first round draft pick Michael Crabtree agreed to a deal that will get the WR on the field. The deal was worth $32 million over 6 years with $17 million guaranteed and up to $8 million in additional incentives.

If Crabtree makes the Pro Bowl in two of his first five years, the contract is void after 5 years.

I’ll Tell You This:

I’ve been begging the 49ers for weeks to just get this deal done, and now they have.

The team is already 3-1 without Crabtree and have been my NFC dark-horse since the beginning of the season. Now with Crabtree inked and Gore coming back to the line-up soon, this team moves officially into my “Contender” category.

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Fantasy Football: Week 2 Sleepers at QB, RB, WR, TE, and D/ST

As I admitted to you yesterday in my Week 2 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em post, Week 1 was not my finest hour. There were a few hits, but more than a few misses, and I am determined to turn that around this week.

Luckily, I set the bar a little higher for myself with my Week 1 sleeper selections. I didn’t necessarily pick any superstars, but certainly some guys that could have helped you depending on your roster situation.

• Week 1 Sleeper hits: Brady Quinn (205 yards, TD, 12 pts.); Mike Bell (143 yards, 12 pts.); Isaac Bruce (4 rec, 74 yds, 8.2 pts)
• Week 1 Sleeper misses: Martellus Bennett (1 rec, 13 yds); New Orleans D (27 pts given up, 3 INTs, 6 pts)

The key thing to remember with sleepers, at least from my perspective, is that they shouldn’t matter all that much until the bye weeks or major injuries start to pile up. If you drafted well, you shouldn’t be doing too much trolling in the 50%-or-less owned pool of players unless you are in a very deep league.

It is still too early to tell if your highly drafted players are busts, most everyone is still healthy, and one week is not enough time to tell whether that potential diamond the rough will become a weekly starter. Still, the earlier that you can identify and latch onto a player who was significantly undervalued on draft day, the better you will be moving forward.

So each of this week’s sleeper picks will be a combination of a) a guy that has a favorable Week 2 matchup; and b) a guy with the potential to be a weekly starter down the line should certain circumstances fall his way.

Let’s get right to ‘em.

Follow this link to StubHub for great deals on NFL tickets.

Week 2 Sleeper Picks

Week 2 QB Sleeper Pick: Shaun Hill, San Francisco (vs Seattle)

I was high on Shaun Hill in the offseason and continue to be high on him after the 49ers QB ran his career record to 8-3 in Week 1 with an efficient (18-31) 209 passing yards a TD. Currently Hill is owned in 25% of Yahoo leagues, most likely as a result of the purported QB competition that took place in San Francisco during the offseason.

But with Mike Singletary as the coach, do you really think he was ever going to pass over a guy who has won that high a percentage of his starts?

Hill is not flashy, just effective, which makes him perfect for Singletary’s tastes. And what this means is that, barring injury, Shaun Hill should be starting 16 games this season.

For his career, Hill has a 90.4 QB rating and a 19-9 TD-INT ratio. The 49ers receivers are nothing special, but Hill has an experienced veteran target in Isaac Bruce and a young guy with upside in Josh Morgan. Hill also has a tight end with a lot of potential in Vernon Davis (who you will read more about later).

Most importantly, Hill has Frank Gore behind him in the backfield.

Although Gore and the 49ers running game struggled in week 1, he gives Hill a solid option to dump the ball off to. Gore caught three passes in Week 1 and took one of them in for a touchdown. He has 53 and 43 catches respectively over the past two seasons.

Here is one more reason to like Hill: the 49ers schedule down the stretch. In weeks 14-17, the 49ers play Arizona, @Philadelphia, Detroit, and @St. Louis. The Philly matchup is tough, but the other three defenses present opportunities for big games.

If you own Tom Brady or Drew Brees, you are probably thinking playoffs right now. What if those guys get hurt? It might not be a bad idea to have a QB on your team who won’t hurt you (a la Jake Delhomme, owned in 43% of leagues) and who could be poised for some big games down the stretch.

Week 2 projection for Shaun Hill: 210 yards passing, 1 TD

Other QB sleepers I like specifically in Week 2: Jason Campbell, Washington (vs St. Louis, 41% owned); JaMarcus Russell, Oakland (@ Kansas City, 11% owned)

Week 2 RB Sleeper Pick: RB Correll Buckhalter, Denver Broncos (vs Cleveland)

If you want to know how bad Cleveland’s run defense is, I offer you the following two links:

• Adrian Peterson’s ridiculous Week 1 run
• Browns-Vikings preview

I basically called the Browns-Vikings game exactly as it went, and based much of that prediction on the Browns’ porous run D. Granted, the team looked better in the first half when they had A.P. and the Vikings pretty well bottled up, but Eric Mangini is working no miracles in Cleveland this year. The Browns will still be at least 20th or lower in rushing defense at season’s end.

Enter Correll Buckhalter (45% owned) and the Denver Broncos.

Now, we all know that Knowshon Moreno is the long-term answer in Denver. How soon he will start getting the bulk of the carries though, I’m not sure. Last week, Moreno got eight carries and went for 19 yards. He caught no passes. Buckhalter, on the hand, caught two passes to go along with his eight carries and 46 yards.

Clearly there is a timeshare going on in Denver.

With the Browns putting a surprising amount of pressure on now-statuesque Vikings QB Brett Favre, with a lot of it coming from blitzing safeties, Denver has to be concerned about its backs’ ability to pick up blitzers. Because Buckhalter is the more experienced of the two, that should give him an edge over Moreno on 2nd-and-long and 3rd down situations.

He has never been a full-time player, but Buckhalter has always produced when given opportunities (4.5 yard career average, 26 catches in 2008). He will get few opportunities as sweet as this Sunday’s against the run defense of the Browns, and could have decent value as a bye week flex fill-in moving forward — especially in PPR leagues — even if Knowshon Moreno becomes the feature back on 1st and 2nd downs.

Week 2 projection for Correll Buckhalter: 65 yards rushing, 30 yard receiving, 1 TD

Other RB sleepers I like specifically in Week 2: Michael Bush, Oakland (@ Kansas City, 37% owned); Ladell Betts, Washington (vs St. Louis, 14% owned)

Week 2 WR Sleeper Pick: Robert Meachem, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia)

All offseason we heard about how former 1st round pick Robert Meachem was finally ready to begin producing for the Saints after two lost seasons. If Week 1 is any indication, those reports may well prove true.

The Saints’ WR depth chart is interesting. The top two receivers, Marques Colston and Lance Moore, were drafted in the 7th round (Colston) and not drafted at all (Moore). Numbers 3 and 4 on the depth chart, however, were drafted in the 2nd round (Devery Henderson) and the 1st (Meachem).

So things are a little inverted in New Orleans.

Things are also extremely productive in New Orleans right now, and while Drew Brees won’t be throwing for 6 TDs every game, the Saints offense is showing every possible sign of being an unstoppable juggernaut in 2009.

Whether Meachem can overtake Colston or Moore in terms of targets is highly doubtful. Those two guys have a better rapport and more game history with Brees, and will most likely end the year with more catches, yards, and touchdowns than either Meachem or Henderson.

But — and it’s a bit but — both Colston and Moore have been hurt within the past year. Colston missed time last year and Moore missed the bulk of the preseason. If either goes down, Meachem slides one step closer to getting starting-level WR targets. In New Orleans’ offense, this is a big deal, as Moore unexpectedly proved last year.

This week, Philadelphia will do a much better job of defending Brees than Detroit did. We know that. And in Asante Samual and Sheldon Brown, the Eagles have two pretty good starting corners on the outside. This could be a good game for the Saints’ other WRs, matched up on nickel corners and safeties, to get some increased targets.

And long-term, there are far worse futures buys than a talented former 1st round pick in his third season who plays in the NFL’s best offense and who also returns kicks.

Week 2 projection for Robert Meachem: 4 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD

Other WR sleepers I like specifically in Week 2: Antwaan Randle El, Washington (vs St. Louis, 23% owned); Michael Clayton, Tampa Bay (@ Buffalo, 14% owned)

Week 2 TE Sleeper: Vernon Davis, San Francisco (vs Seattle)

Well, it looks like my work concerning Vernon Davis is not yet done, as Davis still is only owned in 45% of leagues. The former 1st round pick is starting to see more targets though, seven in Week 1, and is now more able to turn those targets into production (5 receptions, 40 yards).

The 49ers are a good team, play in a so-so division, and are devoid of big-time playmakers on the outside. They also have a good, efficient quarterback who will be able to help them keep the chains moving.

Add all of that up, then sprinkle in some of Davis’ immense physical talent and newfound maturity (he’s a captain), and everything appears to be in place for a breakout year from Davis.

This week, San Francisco plays Seattle. The Seahawks should be better this year, and are 1-0, but we really know nothing about them because they’ve only played St. Louis. And for goodness sakes, they gave up four catches and 44 yards to Randy McMichael. No, those aren’t great numbers, but…Randy McMichael?

Watch out, because this could be Vernon Davis’ breakout game and then you’ll all wish you’d listened to me when I told you to pick him up.

Week 2 projection for Vernon Davis: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD

Other TE sleepers I like specifically in Week 2: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans, 43% owned); Todd Heap, Baltimore (@ San Diego, 38% owned)

Week 2 D/ST Sleeper: Washington Redskins (vs St. Louis)

Well, that was easy. The Redskins have a very good defense, and it should only improve this season with Albert Haynesworth. This week they are playing the St. Louis Rams, a team with the worst offense in the NFL west of Cleveland.

Start the Redskins. You won’t be disappointed. (And if you are, it probably means that Jim Zorn is getting fired on Monday.)

Other D/ST sleepers I like specifically in Week 2: Atlanta (vs Carolina, 27% owned)

Remember to use the comment section for any and all fantasy questions leading up to the start of games on Sunday. I’ll do my best to answer them promptly.

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* – Shaun Hill photo credit: Lone Placebo

* – Robert Meachem photo credit: Sean Gardner / Reuters via USA Today

I’ll Tell You This: Drew Brees and Tom Brady Display Greatness During NFL Kickoff Weekend

[Editor's note: Each week, Big MB's regales us with his post entitled I'll Tell You This, in which he tells us...whatever it is he wants to tell us. Enjoy...and stay tuned for an upcoming appearance by Big MB on the soon-to-be resumed MSF podcast. Big MB and I will be debating this week's Monday night game between the Colts and my first NFL love, the Dolphins.]

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It’s what we have all been waiting for: NFL Kickoff 2009.

After going through football withdrawls, the draft, and preseason, our moment of Glory finally came. And it was good…real good.

In honor of Week 1 I have decided to make this week’s I’ll Tell You This an “NFL Kickoff Special”.

Enjoy.

1. The Boston TD Party

In the first of two Monday Night Football games, Tom Brady stepped onto the field for a regular season game for basically the first time in two years (not counting his less-than-a-quarter stint a year ago before getting hurt) against the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills came out motivated and the Patriot came out flat. With time dwindling down in the final minutes of the 4^th quarter, Brady threw a line drive touchdown to tight end Ben Watson to bring the Bills lead to just 5 with 2:06 to go in the game. Instead of an onside kick, the Patriots chose to kick off deep.

Instead of taking a knee, Leodis McKelvin of the Bills decided to bring the ball out. After breaking a tackle or two, he got hammered and dumped the ball on the ground. The Patriots recovered near the 30 yard line of the Bills, and just a few short plays later Brady hit Watson again, on what seemed to be the exact same play, for another touchdown.

With only 50 seconds remaining, the Bills could not answer, and the Patriots would move to 1-0 on a miracle, or perhaps a follie.

I’ll Tell You This: As you may know about me, I am a die-hard Colts fan, and it pains me to talk about anything that has to do with the success of the New England Patriots.

But as for the Bills’ return man, I have a simple message: you are an idiot.

If you take a knee, your offense will run at least 30 seconds off of the clock, New England will use all of their time outs, and the entire AFC will take a collective breath as they realize that the mighty Patriots are 0-1.

But no.

You had to try to be the hero. Enjoy the practice squad.

The only consolation I can take is that MAYBE, just maybe, the Patriots aren’t the juggernaut that everyone seems to think they will be again.

2. The AFC South

Obviously, I can’t give the Patriots face time without spending a little time on my Colts and their division.

Houston, who has been deemed by many to possibly win the AFC South, came out flat and never caught fire. In their 24-7 loss to the Jets, Steve Slaton was not effective, Matt Schaub was disappointing, and the Jets ran for 150 yards on 49 attempts while protecting their rookie starter, Mark Sanchez.

Tennessee faced off against the defending Super Bowl champs, the Steelers. After an overtime slugfest, Tennessee dropped their battle on an OT field goal by Pittsburgh as the Steelers were victorious 13-10.

In the only divisional match-up, Jacksonville played the Colts.

Manning and Co. would have a rough start with a redzone interception, followed by a mid-field fumble by Joseph Addai.

After failing to convert a 4th and 1 at midfield in the closing minutes of the game, holding a 14-12 lead, the Colts’ defense would take a stand and force Jacksonville into a turnover on downs to hold onto the victory, leaving the Colts as the only team to be 1-0 in possibly the toughest division in football.

I’ll Tell You This: I’m sorry, did I just report that the Colts’ defense won the game? I think I did. And, the Colts now hold their own destiny for the rest of the season in the AFC South.

The AFC, and perhaps the entire NFL, must be asking themselves this: If Manning and his offense can get on track, and they presumably will, how dominant can this team be with a stronger defense, which get even better when vaunted safety Bob Sanders returns?

3. What a “Brees”

Drew Brees torched the Detroit Lions on Sunday completing 26 of 34 passes for 358 yards and 6, yes count them six, touchdowns in the Saints’ 45-27 romp of the cellar dweller Lions.

I’ll Tell You This: Everyone in the league has done nothing but talk about Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for the past 5 or 6 years. Recently talk has swung to Eli Manning, Big Ben, and Aaron Rodgers, who, among others, have been anointed the next line of MVPs of the NFL.

But Drew Brees is the real deal and deserves to be mentioned with the former group, not the latter.

He may even be…possibly…the best quarterback in the NFL right now.

Only time will tell, but I would even hazard to guess that Tom Brady’s 50 TD record is in serious jeopardy. Get over it NFL, I know he is not the most marketable player in the league, but Drew Brees could very well be your best.

4. The Replacements

With Week 1 in the books, several injuries have taken center stage. The most prominent injury is that of Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher. After dislocating his wrist, Urlacher is now done for the season. The Bears immediately looked at signing former Buc Derrick Brooks, but decided on Tim Shaw instead.

The other injury that has swept headlines is the broken ribs of Donovan McNabb. After what seemed to be a late hit in the end zone, McNabb left the game to find out the he had cracked ribs. The Eagles have activated Michael Vick, but since he is unavailable until week three, they have pursued and signed QB Jeff Garcia, and have released WR Hank Baskett to make room on their roster.

I’ll Tell You This: In Chicago, the loss of Urlacher is devastating. Brooks could be a nice player, but he is older and will not run this defense the way the Urlacher did. Who is Tim Shaw again?

In Philly, the stage has now been set for a three-way QB controversy that may very well find itself headlining on Jerry Springer. It’s my guess that things will never be the same in Philly, and I don’t see this situation working itself out.

5. The Great White Hype

In my final story of the week, I am going to do something a little different. I’m going to rant. No story, just a rant. So……

I’ll Tell You This:

I am sick and tired of hearing how awesome two players are. One is in the NFL; the other is a NCAA football player.

First, let me address the player who has already been involved in Heisman talk, True Freshman QB from USC, Matt Barkley.

I watched the Ohio State game. It was a phenomenal game, and USC truly outplayed Ohio State in the 4th quarter to get the W. However, following the end of the game the announcer, as it seems all of Sports Media have been doing, began to talk about Barkley and what a great game he had, and how he was truly a candidate in the Heisman Race.

For the love of God, he completed less than 50% of his passes (15 for 31) for 195 yards and one interception. No Touchdowns. Wow. If this is what it takes to be a Heisman candidate then I hereby nominate myself, and I think that I could possibly contend with those numbers.

My other complaint is focused on Green Bay Packers QB, Aaron Rogers.

His stats from Sunday’s bout with Chicago? He completed 17-28 passes for 184 yards and 1 touchdown. Not that this is a bad performance, but it is FAR from what I would consider an MVP performance, especially given the performance by Drew Brees this week. With the hype surrounding Rodgers this season, I expected more. 

All in all, it was a phenomenal Kick Off, with a lot of exciting games and finishes, and perhaps even a few surprises. Feel free to comment and tell me what your favorite moment of NFL Kick Off weekend was. I’d love to hear it.

Until next week kids…

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You can follow Myles on twitter at www.twitter.com/mylesb3269

* – Tom Brady photo credit: More Than an Electrician

* – Drew Brees photo credit: The Campus Socialite

ESPN’s Current Top 10 Fantasy Football Players: Over or Under

Yes, not long now before every fantasy football nut is tearing apart the Internet and those extremely overpriced magazines to help them decide who to draft, when, where, why and how!  This year I am at a disadvantage, as I am passing on my knowledge to all of you.  My competition in the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football League will be able to gain insight into my strategies and opinions, which for the most part are nails, and use that against me. 

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.

8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profootball.insight

Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Secondary Fails Packers in Monday Night Football Loss to Brees, Saints

With all due respect to Joe Tiller, Monday night’s showdown in New Orleans was the “Greatest Show on Turf” ever played by a team in black and gold.

Drew Brees put on a show for the Superdome crowd, tossing the ball all over the Packers secondary and amassing 323 yards and 4 TDs on 20-of-26 throwing the ball. Granted, Joe Tiller can still lay claim to this show since Brees, who engineered the aerial onslaught, is among the Tiller quarterback progeny that was nurtured in West Lafayette’s “Cradle of Quarterbacks”.

Going into Monday night’s game, all anyone seemed to be focused on was the matchup between Brees, the NFL’s leading passer who is on pace to break Marino’s single-season yardage record, and the Packers secondary who ranked tops in the NFL in every significant pass-defense category. Brees said before the game that his best was better than their best, and man-oh-man, was he ever right. Brees tore the Packers secondary apart like Charlie Weis attacking a New York style cheesecake.

So how did this happen? How was the Packers’ glaring defensive strength, and to this point their defensive identity, embarrassed on Monday night?

The answers will not be found in the secondary, which is still arguably the most talented unit on the entire team, but on the defensive line. On Monday night, Brees had more time in the pocket to find a receiver than Axl Rose had to write Chinese Democracy.

It’s no secret that this Packers defense has struggled to stop the run this season. After being torched by Dallas, the two-headed monster in Tennessee, and Adrian Peterson twice; the Defense was allowing over 100 yards per game on the ground. Due to this glaring ineptitude against the run, the lack of any legitimate pass rush at times this season had been one of the quieter deficiencies in the Packers’ Defense. If it hadn’t been for the Bears game, I am not sure if the Packers’ D-line would have a single commanding performance on which to hang their helmets.

It must be noted that the D-line has lost a lot since the 2007 season. Fan favorite and Packer veteran Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila was unceremoniously cut this season after only recording half a sack in seven games and Corey Williams was traded to Cleveland in the off-season. This has severely affected the depth that allowed Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders to bring in fresh bodies on the line during the 2007 campaign.

Now, Aaron Kampman is virtually the only threat to put any pressure on the quarterback and is the only member of the unit to record more than 3 sacks. Following a 2007 season when they had one of the deepest and best defensive lines that gave opposing quarterbacks fits in the pocket and shut down the opponents’ running games, this season they have been blown of the line of scrimmage and seem to lack the swagger and agility they once had.

The secondary’s success is in their physical man-to-man style of play, altering routes off the line of scrimmage, and leaving their talented CBs and safeties on islands of coverage. That success is severely limited when the opposing quarterback has the time to find the rhythm and vision to pick that secondary apart like Brees did Monday night. I am worried the same problem will be exploited when the Carolina Panthers, and their resurgent passing game, come calling on Sunday. I can only hope that by then, Bob Sanders and the defensive coaching staff can find a way to regain control of the defensive line of scrimmage.

Saints Beat Packers – Drew Brees On Pace to Break Dan Marino’s Season Record

Update 12/22: Drew Brees now needs 402 yards in the Saints’ Week 17 game against Carolina to break Dan Marino’s all-time record of 5,084 for passing yards in a season.

It is official. I need to stop making predictions.

For any of you who wasted time reading my Saints-Packers Monday Night Football prediction, I apologize. As with nearly every Cleveland Browns game this year, and the Texas Tech-Oklahoma game, among many others, I was way off on my Packers-Saints prediction.

My Monday Night Football prediction: Packers 38 | Saints 31

Actual score: Saints 51 | Packers 29

However, I am happy about this result because while my heart belongs to the Browns and the Dolphins, the Saints are my favorite NFC team. I don’t root for them actively, but I would like to see them make the playoffs. And the primary reason is their quarterback, Drew Brees.

Yes, I am an Indiana fan and an Indiana grad, and I am also an unabashed fan of Drew Brees.

For the evening Drew Brees was phenomenal. He finished 20-26 with 4 TDs, no INTs, and 323 passing yards. That is a sick 12.4 yards per completion.

For the season, Drew Brees has now passed for 3574 yards through 11 games. That is good for 324.9 yards per game. If Brees is able to maintain that pace through the final five games of the season he will finish with 5,198 yards. The NFL record is held by Dan Marino, who threw for 5,084 yards in 1984. (Interestingly, Drew Brees is not the only quarterback chasing Dan Marino this year. Kurt Warner has passed for 3,506 yards this season, which also puts him on pace to surpass Marino.)

(Oh, and even more interestingly, though not of any interest to anyone but me, I have either Drew Brees or Kurt Warner on all five of my fantasy teams, and both of them on two. I can’t predict games, but damnit I can draft quarterbacks!)

Dan Marino has always been one of my favorite players, but if anyone has to break his single-season passing record I hope that it is Drew Brees. After watching Brees dominate the Big Ten while playing for my arch nemesis Purdue, I thought the Dolphins should have drafted Brees to be the heir apparent to Marino. However, the Dolphins made the same mistake as every other NFL team with a first round pick that year: they passed on the undersized quarterback whose arm was supposed to not be strong enough.

Drew Brees has consistently proven people wrong during his NFL career, and he is certainly doing it again this year. In a season in which his most dynamic offensive weapon has been nagged by injuries (Reggie Bush) and his most consistent receiver has also been hit with the injury bug (Marques Colston), Drew Brees is having his finest season.

And I can’t think of any better compliment to Drew Brees’ abilities than this: An IU grad and a lifelong fan of Dan Marino (a huge cardboard cutout of Marino is currently staring at me as I write this) is actively rooting for Drew Brees to break the record.

(But for the record, if any annoying Purdue fan posts “Boiler Up” in the comments section, I will ban your IP address from this site and delete this post.)

[tags]nfl records, drew brees, new orleans saints[/tags]

Monday Night Football Preview: Packers v Saints

Last week on Monday Night Football, the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills played an ugly game that was nonetheless exciting. The Browns ended up winning after the Bills missed a 47-yard field goal in the waning seconds of the game.

This week, at least on paper, we should have another thrilling matchup on Monday Night Football; and hopefully the level of play is a little bit more aesthetically pleasing.

Tomorrow night, November 24, the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints take the field in New Orleans. The Packers enter the game at 5-5, and 1/2 game behind both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North standings. The Bears and Vikings were both victorious on Sunday. The Saints enter the game at 5-5 as well, but in a much more precarious position in the NFC South. They are in last place, behind Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.

As with most games during late November and December, both teams look at this game as a virtual must-win.

Before we get into who will win, let’s take a look at the injury report:

The biggest injury news in this game is that Saints RB Reggie Bush will not play. Reggie Bush continues to suffer from an injured knee. Sean Payton and the Saints had hoped Bush could give it a go, but announced early on Sunday that he would not play. (Luckily for fantasy owners of Reggie Bush, like myself, the Saints announced this twenty minutes before the early games on Sunday started. I was able to quickly put Le’Ron McLain in my lineup and enjoy his solid day against the Eagles.) Aaron Glenn and Mike Karney are also out for the Saints. For the Packers, linebacker Nick Barnett is out. A whole slew of other players are questionable, but none are starters or key players.

Now let’s get your impression before I give you mine:

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My first impression is that I don’t like this matchup for the Saints.

I think if people were asked who has the better offense, the majority would answer the Saints. And with a healthy Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and Jeremy Shockey, that could be true. But the truth of the matter is that the Packers have actually scored more points this season: 274-266. This, despite the fact that Brett Favre is playing in New York and running back Ryan Grant is averaging less than 4 yards per carry.

Still, the Packers have the better running game. Without Reggie Bush, the Saints have been relying on Deuce McAllister and Pierre Thomas to provide balance to the passing attack led by Drew Brees. Unfortunately for New Orleans, McAllister is only averaging 3.7 yards per attempt. Pierre Thomas, however, has been running well of late. He is gaining 4.4 yards per carry and should continue to get carries even when Reggie Bush returns.

The Saints are also trying to assimilate Marques Colston back into their offense. Colston was injured for a while, but it has not stopped Drew Brees from amassing a ridiculous 3,251 passing yards through 10 games. Brees has also thrown for 18 touchdowns, but has been picked off 11 times. With ball-hawking cornerbacks like Charles Woodson on the other side of the ball, Drew Brees will have to be careful not to throw to the other team.

Amazingly, Aaron Rodgers (or is it Scott Stapp from Creed?) is having almost as strong a season as Drew Brees — if not better. He does not have the yardage and touchdowns of Brees, but Rodgers has been more efficient. He has thrown only 6 INTs and has a passer rating of 94.5, nearly equal to Brees’ 95.4. Aaron Rodgers has developed a great rapport with wide receiver Greg Jennings, who is emerging as one of the most electric deep threats in the NFL. Greg Jennings has caught 48 passes, which is less then 5 per game, but he is averaging an eye-popping 18.0 yards per catch and 5 TDs. With New Orleans possessing a secondary that is more like a sieve than a last line of defense, I would expect Greg Jennings to get behind the secondary for at least one or two big plays.

The Saints are 4-1 at home this year, but three of those wins were against struggling teams such as the Raiders, 49ers, and Chargers. They did hand Tampa Bay one of their few losses this year, but the Saints’ other W was against the Chiefs. The Saints have not fared well against teams with records of .500 or above, dropping games to Minnesota, Washington, Carolina, Atlanta, and Denver.

I would say that the Packers are much closer to the second group of teams — the good ones — than the list of patsies that the Saints have beaten. And coming off last week’s dismantling of the Bears, this Packers team seems to be hitting their stride.

I am an unabashed Drew Brees fan, have him in nearly every fantasy league, and remain pissed off that the Miami Dolphins did not draft him back when he came out of Purdue. Drew Brees is an outstanding QB and I think he will play well on Monday night.

Still, I doubt it will be enough to win.

The Packers have their own solid QB to go along with a better running game, a more consistent receiving corps, and a much better defense. Without Reggie Bush to add his dynamic play-making ability to the Saints attack, and keep the Packers D off balance, I think the Saints will put up a valiant fight but ultimately fall short.

Prediction: Packers 38 | Saints 31

(Editor’s Note: For purposes of full disclosure, JRod also picked Texas Tech to beat Oklahoma, thought the Browns would go 9-7 and make the playoffs, and predicted the Chicago White Sox would beat the Tampa Bay Rays in this year’s playoffs. So basically, if you are thinking of wagering money on this game, put it confidently on the Saints. The Packers have now been given the official JRod Kiss of Death.)

Fire and Ice Fantasy Sports Forum | Fantasy Football Week 8 | Browns – Colts

Welcome back all to yet another edition of the Fire and Ice Fantasy Sports Forum.

For those of you new to the weekly column, which began last week, I will post several players each week and rate them as being on fire or on ice. My fellow writers at Midwest Sports Fans, and our loyal readers as well, will then chime in with their own thoughts on the selected players. Keep in mind this is evaluated from a fantasy football perspective.

So, who is on fire or on ice for Week 8?

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