The AP is also reporting, in its Calvin Johnson injury update post, that the Lions WR was noticeably limping after the game as he walked to the locker room.

Megatron is schedule to undergo tests today, at which point more should be known about the severity of the injury. Certainly, Lions fans and Johnson fantasy owners will be holding their breath until they hear more.

The Lions play Green Bay next week and then have a bye in Week 7.

Okay, I know everyone is saying to themselves that this game is pretty much lopsided, and that Detroit’s D will have trouble stopping the Ben-and-Mendenhall combo this Sunday.

I also know that everyone is saying that Matthew Stafford’s passes (if he plays) will be looked at as if they were some juicy steaks by the Steelers secondary.

Well for all of you out there who believe this…you are absolutely right.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

• Steelers-Lions Date: Sunday, October 11th
• Steelers-Lions Kickoff Time: 1:00 PM
• Steelers-Lions TV Network: CBS
• Steelers-Lions Announcers: Dick Enberg and Dan Fouts
• Steelers-Lions Point Spread: Steelers -10.5
• Steelers-Lions Over-Under: 44
• Steelers-Lions Spread Pick by Jerod: It is very tempting to pick the Lions here…very tempting. They are playing better football lately, and they are at home. And 10.5 points is a large spread against a team, Pittsburgh, that has not been dominant this year. Still, I’m going with the Steelers. I think we may have seen the birth of Rashard Mendenhall last night, which could signal the rebirth of a balanced offensive attack for the Steelers. Their defense isn’t as dominating without Troy Polamalu, but it’s good enough against a rookie QB or Daunte Culpepper, if Stafford can’t go. Steelers-Lions free pick: Steelers -10.5

Steelers-Lions Preview and Analysis

Detroit Lions

The Lions come into this game with a BIG statistical flaw. I’ll give you a hint, it involves “per” but is not TDs Per nor sacks per.

The one flaw they have in their game is on offense, and it is the fact that they one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to yards per play.

Yes, yards per play.

This stat is HUGE when it comes to playing the Steelers D. Why? Well this season, the Steelers are an above average team when it comes to giving up YPP (Yards Per Play), with an NFL rank of 10. But for the past five seasons, they always finished in the top 5.

The point being here is that Lions rookie QB Matt Stafford (or Daunte Culpepper), will have his hands full.

The Lions don’t really have a rushing game, so they won’t want to rush too much against the current “Steel Curtain.” Thus, they just might have to have Stafford throw 50+ passes.

Can you say trouble?

I mean, even though Troy Polamalu is still out, Pittsburgh’s secondary is never anything to mess with. Ever.

I can only picture it now: Stafford with his head down, walking off the field after a dissapointing blow-out loss this Sunday, and much of it will be due to his poor passer rating.

Sorry Matt, but you’re about to hit that rookie wall, and this wall is made of steel.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers continue to have the same injuries that have plagued them from last week. Will that affect them? No. Heck no, to be more precise.

As everyone knows by now, Willie Parker will be out and to take his place is some guy named Rashard. You know, the guy who ran for 160+ yards, and two touchdowns last week. Pittsburgh’s run game will have no problem against Detroit’s run D, even though they are playing pretty good on that side of the football right now. 

Even if the run game seems to lack, the Steelers can always go to their Plan B: Ben Roethlisberger.

Ben and the Steelers are currently ranked #3 this year in total passing yards, and this should come as no suprise. Big Ben is playing outstanding football. He only has 5 TDs on the season but has a rating of 98.1, and when Ben gets on a roll, he seems to pick apart any defense due to the improved protection he has been recieving from his O-Line. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes seem to be getting into a groove as well, so offensively the Steelers are square.

The Steelers D should play fine. Troy Polamalu will be out again, but there is not much offensive firepower that will be thrown Pittsburgh’s way on Sunday. Literally, I don’t see Stafford putting on a show with Calvin Johnson in Detroit.

Steelers-Lions Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 | Detroit 10

Sorry Ford family, give it a couple years, a couple more high draft picks, and we might see you guys in Week 18.

Notable Steelers injuries:
-Steelers FS Troy Polamalu out
-Steelers HB Willie Parker out
-Steelers LB Andre Frazier (Shoulder, Questionable)
-Steelers WR Hines Ward (Not injury related; should start)

Via ProFootballTalk on Twitter, Kevin Smith will suit up and start for the Lions today and Clinton Portis will do the same for the Redskins.

As for Tashard Choice, get this guy in your lineup.  Marion Barber is probable to play, but is not 100% and the Cowboys want to ease him back into action. Every report I’ve heard is that Choice will get the majority of the carries, and no team is running the ball better than Dallas right now.

In this week’s edition of I’ll Tell You This, we feature a new segment at the end of the article. Check it out and give me your feedback! Here we go….

1 – NFL Injuries

Three weeks are now in the books in this young NFL season, and injuries have already began to raise its ugly head.

First of all, and likely worst of all, The Miami Dolphins received news today that Chad Pennington’s shoulder injury, which occurred during Miami’s loss to San Diego, is likely to end Pennington’s season. Pennington tore a capsule in his throwing shoulder, and will likely be replaced for the season by back up QB Chad Henne.

The upstart 49ers took what could be a devastating hit to their offense as Frank Gore went down on his first rushing attempt. X-rays were negative as to any broken bones, although Gore underwent an MRI late on Monday evening. The 49ers are claiming that this injury is not related in any way to Gore’s ankle sprain last week in his 207 destruction of the Seattle Seahawks.

In the third quarter of the Colts’ handling of the Arizona Cardinals, pro-bowl DE Dwight Freeney was taken to the locker room with what was said to be a quad injury. Freeney said when he was held by a member of the Cardinal’s OL, he felt a pop in his quad. Freeney was also scheduled to have an MRI on Monday night.

On Bill Polian’s radio show, Polian gave little information, but did go on record saying:

“The docs will report to us later this evening, so we’ll know something then, but I don’t think there will be anything definitive for quite a while… The positive side is that he basically said, ‘I can walk, I can play.’  The good news is I don’t have any bad news.”

I’ll Tell You This: All three of these injuries are devastating to their respective teams.

Miami is 0-3 and cannot afford to lose another game. Unfortunately for them, their star QB is now gone for the season. Chad Henne is unproven, and things could go from bad to worse for the Phins.

I don’t think the Frank Gore’s injury is really worth worrying about. With no broken bones, at worst, Gore may be out a couple of weeks. In a weak division, San Fran already has a 2-1 record.

The Colts have got to be worried about losing Freeney. Who knows when Bob Sanders will come back, and the last thing that this defense wants to see is their leader, and best player, on the sidelines for any large amount of time.

2 – The Colts

Speaking of the Indianapolis Colts, they displayed quite an impressive game in a blowout win of Arizona.

The game started stale for both teams, and the Cardinals struck blood first with a field goal. But the Colts would outscore the Cards 31-7 throughout the remained of the game.

Impressive outings from Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, and the entire defense locked up possibly the best showing by the Indianapolis Colts in a very long time, which included a whopping 505 yards of total offense.

I’ll Tell You This: Wow.

As a die-hard Colts fan, this may have been the most impressive game I have seen in a long time.

First of all, major props to Colts’ defense coordinator, Larry Coyer. Everyone said, “They’ll be tired from the Miami Game, a short week, and traveling all the way to Arizona? There is no way they’ll win.” Well, the defense came out stout and pressured Kurt Warner all night, forcing him into bad passes and turnovers.

The Colts looked good on all sides of the ball, even special teams. If this is a sign of things to come, watch out.

The only bad news from the night was the injury to Dwight Freeney.

Freeney’s status is uncertain at this point, but the Colts will face the 1-2 Seahawks, and the 0-3 Titans, followed by a bye week. Hopefully Freeney (and Sanders) will be back by then.

3 – The Clinchers (MLB)

The Yankees have clinched home field throughout the playoffs after winning their 100^th game.

Other division clinchers include: the St. Louis Cardinals and the L.A. Dodgers. Boston’s magic number to clinch the AL Wild Card is at two..

I’ll Tell You This: I preface this by saying, I love baseball, and I don’t say this just because my Cubs suck but…..

Who Cares?

The division races, outside of Detroit-Minnesota, were essentially decided over 6 weeks ago, and the wild card races have been boring and benign.

That, combined with the excitement of the NFL this year, reflects that baseball’s postseason may be in trouble.

I hate the Yankees, and I hate the Cardinals even more, but that will be your World Series. Spoiler alert: Yankees win it all this year.

Again, who cares?

4 – Detroit’s Big Day

The Streak is finally over!

For the first time since December of 2007, the Detroit Lions have notched a game in the win column.

Rookie Matthew Stafford was 21-36 for 241 yards, and RB Kevin Smith would put up 101 yards on 16 carries.

I’ll Tell You This: Congrats to the Lions and their fans.

It’s good to see them win, because I wouldn’t wish the past year and a half of any fan (except for maybe the Patriots).

However, don’t knight them yet. This team has definitely improved, but their win was over a very bad Redskins team.

They will be better, but let’s not talk about the playoffs just yet; let’s see them get win number two first.

Watch out Tampa, you’re next. Better win one.

5 – The New Segment of I’ll Tell You This:

This is the debut of a new segment that will be featured in each week’s  “I’ll Tell You This”

In this segment I will pose a question to all of you, and I want to hear your response through comments on this page.

You Tell Me This:

Below I have listed the six teams in the NFL that are 0-3.

Tampa Bay Bucs, St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs

Who is the biggest surprise at 0-3?

Which team will be the last to win a game?

Will a team go 0-16 this year too?

Let me know what you think!

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Stay tuned for the next edition of the MSF Podcast, available on iTunes and posted to every Monday Night Football preview, where JRod and Big MB host their “Monday Night Argument” as well as divulge their NFL Locks against the spread. Don’t miss it!

Until next week kids!

* – Matt Stafford photo credit: AP Photo/Paul Sancya via ESPN.com

NFL Week 3 matchups are here already. Hard to believe how quickly the season is going. We’ve already seen a massive upset happen – how about those Bengals over the Packers? – and there could be an even bigger one on the horizon this weekend. Let’s make a few NFL picks.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, September 27, 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL betting favorite: Vikings -6.5

Here’s our chance to find out if San Francisco is truly for real. Frank Gore destroyed Seattle’s defense last week, racking up 207 rushing yards, but he faces the formidable Minnesota run defense led by Pat and Kevin Williams this week. If (when?) the Vikes stack the box and bottle up Gore, Shaun Hill will have to do more than caretake from the quarterback position. I’m not so sure he’s up to the task. San Fran’s “D” looks excellent under Mike Singletary but hasn’t faced a tailback anywhere close to Adrian Peterson’s caliber so far. Bet on Minnesota to cover.

Betting services recommend: Vikings -6.5

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions

Sunday, September 27, 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL betting favorite: Redskins -6

Here’s your big shocker of the week. The Redskins are a superior team, of course, but they’re out of sorts. When you only beat the Rams 9-7 at home and score no touchdowns, how can you be a safe six-point favorite on the road against any team? Washington is struggling to pressure the quarterback, recording just two sacks in two games even after a matchup against Marc Bulger. That means Matt Stafford may have time to unleash some big throws to Calvin Johnson. The Lions can at least beat the spread and have a real shot to win outright.

Betting services recommend: Lions +6

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, September 27, 4:15 p.m. ET

NFL betting favorite: Bears -1.5

After Matt Hasselbeck went down last week and Frank Gore trucked the Seahawks’ front seven, it’s a bit surprising that the Bears are only 1.5-point favorites. You’d think they’d be more popular choices after beating the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers. Jay Cutler found a groove against the Steelers and Matt Forte is itching to bust out. If Hasselbeck plays, he’ll still likely be ineffective playing through a broken rib. If he doesn’t, the Bears could rout the Seahawks.

Betting services recommend: Bears 1-.5

A few people (including Peter King) were predicting that the Lions could beat the Vikings this weekend and snap their 18-game losing streak. After watching Adrian Peterson carve up the Browns in the second half last week, and Drew Brees throw for 6 TDs against the Lions, I wasn’t buying it.

But so far so good for Detroit.

Rookie QB Matt Stafford just threw a TD pass to Calvin Johnson and the Lions lead 10-0 with about 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter.

Stay tuned…

Update: The Vikings, surprise surprise, scored on their next possession, a 1-yard TD pass from Brett Favre to Visanthe Shiancoe.  10-7 Lions.

Update: I officially jinxed the Lions. Adrian Peterson just treated the Lions D like they were the Browns and rumbled for a 27-yard TD. 17-10 Vikings. Sorry Detroit.

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1. Sam Bradford

This past Saturday, Oklahoma was upset in new the Dallas Cowboys stadium by BYU. What’s worse is that last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, Sam Bradford, injured his throwing shoulder on his way to the ground. Sooner Nation stopped breathing for a moment, however with recent reports it seems that the Sooner’s Slinger will only miss 2-4 weeks.

I’ll Tell You This: For all of you skeptics of Mark Sanchez and other athletes coming to pro sports early, and for all of you haters of high schoolers jumping to NBA, this is the case against you. Bradford decided to stick around one more year when he could have been the #1 pick last year. What if this was a career ending injury? Even though it’s not at this point, what if it severely affects Bradford’s play?  Bradford would possibly never get to live his dream of playing pro football. And worse, what would be his future profession after dumping all of his time into becoming an A-level quarterback?

2. Saving Weis?

Charlie Weis and all of South Bend (and those who support the Irish) may breathe just a little easier after Notre Dame pitched a shutout against Nevada. Jimmy Clausen finally looked like the quarterback that he has been hyped to be, completing 15 of 18 passes for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I’ll Tell You This: No coach in sports is under as much pressure as Charlie Weis is right now. Notre Dame MUST win, and look good in doing so. However, this was Nevada. It’s the first week of the season. The team that should have won did. Next week brings bitter rival the Big Blue of Michigan. Someone shoot Charlie a text and let him know his job is still on the line.

3. Al Davis Strikes Again

Once again, Bill Bellicheck is a genius and Al Davis is a fool. This past weekend the New England Patriots traded DE Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for a first round pick in 2011. Seymour is getting older and has seemingly started to lose a step, but is still an upgrade to a porous Raiders D-Line. However, the question remains: is he worth a first round pick?

I’ll Tell You This: There is not a soul on the earth that can honestly tell me that Al Davis made a good move, or ever will. Seymour is a “right now” type of guy, and Oakland is FAR from a “right now” type of team. There is no doubt that the Patriots will likely be picking top 5 in the 2011 draft, and that is something that no one in the entire NFL (save for New England) wants to see (and it’s possible that Al Davis won’t even live long enough to see). Al Davis needs to let go of this historic NFL franchise or they will never succeed. It’s definitely the black hole….a place where NFL players and winning go to die.

4. The Rookies

NFL rookies take the cake this year as both Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets will both get the starting nod at quarterback for their respective teams this season.

I’ll Tell You This: Although I think both guys are talented and will be good quarterbacks in the NFL, both teams are making mistakes starting them. Yes, some quarterbacks do well when thrown right into the mix (see Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts). However, in many cases it hurls what may have been a talented superstar into the cursed pool of the draft day flops (See Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, and David Carr). And some never can turn it around afterwards. Both teams have respectable veteran starters in Daunte Culpepper (Detroit) and Kellen Clemens (NY).  I can only hope for the sake of these two QB’s that they follow Peyton’s path to success and not Ryan Leaf’s path to America’s Funniest Home Videos.

5. The Knockout Heard Round the World

Everyone has seen it. Most of us saw it every hour for 48 straight hours on every sport program on television. And while for a fan of MMA like myself it was somewhat exciting to watch, America was once again taken aback by another sports thug when Oregon standout running back LeGarrette Blount sucker punched Boise State’s Byron Hout after Hout spouted a little trash talk to Blount. Blount made things worse by almost going Ron Artest-style on a couple fans on his way to the locker room. It took 4 or 5 police officers and building security to keep him from broaching the stands.

I’ll Tell You This: Although it is very sad to see a player throw away his career for lack of ability to keep his attitude in control, I do find it funny that the game started with both teams meeting at midfield for a handshake in light of “Good Sportmanship Week.” What I also find funny is that Blount ran his mouth ALL week before the game and then after getting held in check and to career lows, couldn’t take what he had been dishing out. The senior received a one year suspension, thus ending his college career. What will he do with his time off? Maybe he should give the Winnepeg Blue Bombers a call. He can hang out with Pacman Jones. They would make a cute couple. Canada can have him too.

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You can follow BigMB on Twitter by going to www.twitter.com/mylesb3269.

Mel Kiper Jr. Todd McShay. Mike Mayock. Don Banks. Peter King. Matt Mil– wait, never mind on that one.

(The hilarious McShay-Kiper hair swap picture to the left is courtesy of The Sports Hernia, by the way.)

Everywhere you turn there is another draft junkie who has the 40 times memorized for the top 150 players, is constantly shuffling his own personal draft board, and who is creating endless amounts of mock drafts that are, for all intents and purposes, meaningless (not all that unlike pre-draft blog posts…).

So in this uncertain time of guesswork and projection, as we are forced to sift through consistent streams of disinformation, perhaps we should look outside the typical network of draft “experts” to gain some perspective on what will — or, to be more apt, what should — happen this Saturday and Sunday at the 2009 NFL Draft.

Ladies and gentleman of the sports world, I present to you the official NFL draft guru of Midwest Sports Fans: George Santayana.

Who is George Santayana? No, he is not the new late night anchor on ESPNNews. Nor is he one of the endless stream of columnists that seem to pop up out of nowhere on SI.com or ESPN.com.

George Santayana is actually not even alive. In fact, the Spanish-born philospher, essayist, poet, and novelist died in 1952. Coincidentally, the 1952 season brought one of the four NFL championships ever won by the Detroit Lions, all of which came in 1957 or earlier, the team that holds the #1 draft pick in this weekend’s draft. And if the Lions are wise (perhaps the biggest if in all of sports) they will listen to the sage words of George Santayana, a man whose many aphorisms provide a road map to NFL draft success.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

~ George Santayana

Apparently, according to Tom Kowalski at MLive.com, the Detroit Lions have settled on Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, who declared for the draft after his junior season, as their choice at #1 overall in the 2009 NFL draft. Kowalski believes this based on comments made by Lions team president Tom Lewand, while also offering the unconvincing caveat that Lewand’s comments could possibly be some kind of smoke screen. For a while now the conventional wisdom has been that the Lions will take Stafford at #1, and nothing has really led anyone “in the know” to believe that a name other than Stafford’s will be called first on Saturday afternoon.

But the Detroit Lions, and all of the other NFL teams thinking about drafting one of the underclassmen QBs projected to go in the first round (Stafford, plus USC junior Mark Sanchez and Kansas State junior Josh Freeman) would be wise to heed the advice of George Santayana. Past drafts offer a wealth of wisdom that could mitigate the chances of NFL teams wasting their first round pick on a QB that history says will not turn into a franchise — or even solid — player.

And is there any reason to draft a QB in the first round other than if you think he will become your franchise QB?

A recent article by Vic Carucci, a senior columnist at NFL.com who is not a wise as George Santayana but is adept at offering useful wisdom specific to matters of professional football, lays out the historical perspective that should be required reading for any NFL team considering the underclassmen QBs as potential first round picks. (And Browns’ brass, if you really are considering Mark Sanchez at #5, then I’m talking to you here.)

Carucci’s article highlights the importance of maturity in the development of young NFL quarterbacks. And while he does not specifically state that NFL teams would be foolish to draft Stafford, Sanchez, or Freeman in the first round this year, the table accompanying his post (screen grabbed and included below to the right) speaks volumes about the underlying point.

Let’s break the table down into three general categories: successes, failures, and incompletes.

Successes

• Ben Roethlisberger
• Drew Bledsoe

Failures

• Alex Smith
• Rex Grossman (yes, he made a Super Bowl, but does anyone really consider him anything other than a failure in Chicago?)
• Michael Vick (if maturity is what keeps underclassmen QBs from succeeding, then I think Vick has to be considered a failure despite his flashes of success.)
• Tim Couch
• Ryan Leaf
• Heath Shuler
• Tommy Maddox
• Todd Marinovich
• Jeff George
• Andre Ware

Incompletes

• JaMarcus Russell
• Vince Young
• Trent Dilfer (gets bonus points for winning a Super Bowl, but didn’t win it for the team that drafted him.)

I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that the breakdown is heavily weighted towards the middle of the table, almost like there is a failure vacuum sucking the potential out of underclassmen QBs, each of whom set back the franchises that drafted them in the first round. Obviously, the successes of Ben Roethlisberger and, to a lesser degree, Drew Bledsoe give teams hope that they can unearth the unlikely junior QB who succeeds. But if I’m studying this piece of history from a war room, I’m looking at the negatives and having a hard time believing that playing 2/15 odds is in the best interests of my organization.

Thus, thee words of George Santayana ring exceedingly true. Whether any NFL teams are listening is another question.

But there are other words by George Santayana that ring true here as well:

Before you contradict an old man, my fair friend, you should endeavor to understand him.

~ George Santayana

With history so blatantly on the side of not drafting underclassmen QBs in the first round, then why do many NFL teams, who invest so much money and so many resources into the scouting and drafting process, continue to make such choices?

The answer is simple: you have to have a good quarterback to win a Super Bowl. (And, ironically, former junior draft pick Trent Dilfer is often held up as the anomalous exception that proves the rule, after he “led” Baltimore to a Super Bowl title by simply not losing games so their defense could win them.)

The importance of having a good QB should not be understated. And when good QBs are so hard to find, it is understandable that teams become intoxicated with players whose skill sets and college production suggest that they might someday possibly become a franchise QB.

A team like the Lions cannot plan ahead until next year and wait to take Sam Bradford. What if they actually stumble into a few wins this season and do not pick first next year? If they squander this year’s pick on a non-QB, and do not have the opportunity to have their pick of next year’s litter, they could enter 2011 with Daunte Culpepper still at QB and no succession line to the future. When considered in this context, a 2/15 roll of the dice almost, maybe, kind of, sort of makes sense.

What to do with this paradox? Well, let’s go back to our good friend George Santayana.

Science is nothing but developed perception, interpreted intent, common sense rounded out and minutely articulated.

~ George Santayana

We often hear the NFL draft discussed as a science, though an imperfect science at best. There are endless measurables used to gauge a players’ ability to compete athletically at the professional level. Tests like the Wonderlic purportedly assess a player’s aptitude. Game tape is dissected and graded, players are poked and prodded, values are assigned to each position on the draft board, and teams devise rating systems based on numbers and colors to group players on their draft boards.

And from this maelstrom of data and analysis comes what teams hope is a minutely articulated and developed perception from which they can interpret a strategic draft day intent that leads to successful common sense decision-making and, thus, draft picks who ultimately contribute to the greater cause of winning championships.

Yet, as we all know, it rarely if ever works out so cleanly. So perhaps that quote by George Santayana really does not clear up anything.

Got another one George?

The truth is cruel, but it can be loved, and it makes free those who have loved it.

~ George Santayana

Ah, the truth. It certainly can be a cruel and tricky little devil.

And with respect to the “science” of the NFL draft, the truth can be especially cruel when it contradicts the “developed perception, interpreted intent, and common sense rounded out and minutely articulated” that NFL teams invest so much time and so many resources in developing, but that can ultimately be flawed and misleading.

NFL teams want to find franchise QBs, they need to find franchise QBs, and I am convinced that they look for “franchise” inside of draft-eligible underclassmen quarterbacks where no franchise probably exists. In a year such as this one, in which no senior quarterbacks possess the talent to suggest “franchise” to NFL teams, those teams desperate for QBs are forced to consider underclassmen and compelled to weigh the cruelty of truth (underclassmen QBs drafted in the first round usually fail) with the reality of the NFL (teams without franchise QBs rarely win Super Bowls).

In business, important but uncertain decisions and investments are assessed along a risk/return continuum in which the assessed risk of failure is weighed against the potential for return and then analyzed within the context of the organization’s overall goals. And the NFL is wholeheartedly a business, perhaps even more than it is a sport (though that is a debate for another day).

As the NFL draft looms closer, teams are weighing the risk/return of drafting underclassmen QBs Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman with more urgency. For example:

• The Detroit Lions are asking themselves if they should go safe and choose player more likely to be a solid, consistent NFL contributor (Aaron Curry) or take the guy with the higher upside but far greater risk (Matthew Stafford).
• The Jacksonville Jaguars are asking themselves if they should fill a need by targeting a WR in a WR-rich draft or hedge their risky bet on David Garrard with an even more risky bet on a junior QB.
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are asking themselves if they should stay at their current pick to take the risky Freeman, or if they should trade away picks to move up and select the only slightly less risky (according to conventional wisdom, at least) Sanchez; or do they forget about QBs altogether and draft a WR or infuse their aging defense with youth.

Here’s a novel idea for all of the teams targeting underclassmen QBs with first round picks: study history, remember it, and vow not to repeat it. And not just the history that says underclassmen QBs drafted in the first round have an absurdly high rate of not being successful, but also the history that proves franchise QBs do not have to be taken in the first round. Sure, many are. But Tom Brady wasn’t. Drew Brees wasn’t. Kurt Warner wasn’t. Joe Montana wasn’t. Brett Favre wasn’t.

Yet, all of these quarterbacks and many other non-1st round QBs have experienced success and become bona fide franchise QBs. Why? Because they came to organizations that were built on a solid foundation and had the pieces in place to allow them to grow into their positions and develop as football players and as leaders.

Peyton Mannings, John Elways, even Matt Ryans, are exceedingly rare. And these guys, plus the many other senior first round QBs who have turned into franchise QBs, have two things that Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman do not have:

• Far fewer questions about their abilities and mentalities. More game tape + more experience in college allows NFL scouts to understand a players’ strengths and weaknesses better. Compared to drafting a senior QB, NFL teams almost “draft blind” when taking an underclassmen.
• By staying in college through their senior year, these players had the maturity to handle the pressure of being the #1 pick, as well as the advanced skill set and understanding that an extra year in college helps to develop.

The truth is that drafting any QB in the first round is essentially a crap shoot. Seniors drafted #1 overall have failed (Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Dan McGwire…thank you Peter) and juniors drafted later in the first round have succeeded (Ben Roethlisberger). But if, as an organization, you commit yourself to fundamentally sound principles and choose your risks wisely — and fighting 2/15 odds is not what I consider wise — you will be better off in the long run and increase your chances of building a consistent winner.

My humble opinion, if you cannot already figure it out, is that drafting Matthew Stafford (pictured, left) at #1 would not be a bold move by the Detroit Lions; nor would it be, according to history, a wise move. The same goes for the other teams thinking about one of these QBs in the first round. For teams with so many holes, why would you want to select a quarterback that still needs development and that has a 13% chance of succeeding, and then place him on a team that is not currently built to win?

Over the next week, NFL war rooms will be dominated by the voices and egos of GMs, coaches, and scouts, all of whom want to set their respective organizations up for the best chance at future success with their decisions this weekend. And TVs and radios will be dominated by draft gurus and “experts” who think they know what each team should do this weekend to achieve that best chance at future success. Yet with all of the talking, projecting, analyzing, melkipering, posturing, and picking, it would be wise for one particular voice to not be drowned out.

Listen to George Santayana.

The best path to understanding this year’s NFL draft is with a solid understanding of each player available, each team’s needs, plus a healthy dose of historical perspective. The last one, understanding history, is the component that usually gets forgotten. And it is probably the reason why teams end up making many of the same mistakes year after year.

It is also the reason why this final quote from George Santayana perhaps sums up the totality of the NFL draft experience, for both the teams and fans, as well as any:

Why shouldn’t things be largely absurd, futile, and transitory? They are so, and we are so, and they and we go very well together.

~ George Santayana

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What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Basically, Kiper thinks that if you have Stafford rated high enough (top 10) then you take him at #1 because he’s a QB. McShay thinks that more mistakes are made that way and that the Lions should take the best player available.

Personally, I side with McShay on this one. True, I’m not sold on Matthew Stafford, but even just in the broader debate about general draft strategy, I side with take-the-best-player argument. If the QB is in your top 3 but maybe not #1, and there is a huge difference between the top 3 and everyone else, and you’re starved with a QB, then I can see going QB. Otherwise, make the safer choice and be sure you improve your team.

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The guys over at Tirico Suave (a great blog by the way, and I encourage you to click that link and browse their site) have a pretty good breakdown of it:

Todd McShay does his segments in HD.
Mel Kiper does his is in SD.
McShay uses gel in his hair.
Kiper uses mouse.
McShay’s draft board is on an Excel spreadsheet.
Kiper’s is scrawled on the wall of his cave.
Both men despise each other.

Watch for yourself. The fireworks starts a few minutes in so feel free to fast forward through the civil drivel at the beginning. It gets fun when Todd McShay starts rolling his eyes and Kiper inexplicably acts like people always talk over him. Here is the video:

Todd McShay-Mel Kiper Jr Video: Should Lions Draft Matthew Stafford #1?

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

During his three-year tenure in Detroit, Rod Marinelli went 10-38. And though it seems like a distant memory now, the Lions were 6-2 to start out the 2007 season after quarterback Jon Kitna guaranteed a 10-win season before the year started. However, the Lions imploded to end the season and the implosion continued this year.

I went on record a couple of weeks ago saying that I wanted the Lions to win at least one game this year and avoid the ignominy of being the only franchise to go 0-16. I don’t think anyone can argue that Rod Marinelli has handled himself with class and has never shown himself to be anything other than a hard-working, passionate, and accountable man who respects the game of football and never stops fighting.

Unfortunately for Rod Marinelli and the Lions, his abilities as a head coach never matched up to the will and resolve that was palpable any time you heard him speak. I have always liked Rod Marinelli, and he can be a position coach for my team any day of the week. Some people are just miscast as head coaches, and like Romeo Crennel in Cleveland, Rod Marinelli seems to be a great man and a very good coach who just was not a great, or perhaps even good, head coach.

No word on who the Lions are looking at to replace Rod Marinelli. But at least Lions fans can take solace in one thing: it won’t be Matt Millen making the decision this time.

And in other Black Monday NFL news, Eric Mangini of the New York Jets is apparently going to be fired as well; along with the aforementioned Romeo Crennel.

(Update: Looks like Rod Marinelli is the fall guy for the Lions’ 0-16 record.  According to PFT, Tom Lewand has been promoted from COO to President, and Martin Mayhew has been given the permanent position of General Manager.)

1. Gauge the feelings of NFL fans in general.
2. Express my own, which are that I unequivocally do not want to see the 0-14 Detroit Lions go winless in 2008.

Before I expound more on my own thoughts and feelings, chime in with your own. Just how sadistic of an NFL fan are you?:

Now some quick background on the current predicament facing the Lions. Per ESPN:

• The Detroit Lions are only the third team, and the first since the Saints in 1980, to start a season 0-14. (The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished a season 0-14 back in the 70s.)
• The Lions have lost 15 straight games overall dating back to last year, and 21 of their last 22.
• No team in NFL history has ever gone 0-16.

There are a few reasons why I want to see the Detroit Lions win one of their final two games of the 2008 season, against the New Orleans Saints in Week 16 or against the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau in Week 17. First and foremost, I do not think that Lions coach Rod Marinelli deserves to suffer the fate of being the only coach to preside over an 0-16 team.

I do not follow the Lions closely. I am too busy dealing with the ups and downs (mostly downs) of the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins, the two teams that I follow and actively root for. But as an NFL fan, I have seen many of Rod Marinelli’s press conferences, and listened to him talk in interviews, and read stories about his personality and methodology as a coach. One thing is clear: Rod Marinelli exudes passion and he never, ever loses faith in his players or tried to deflect blame away from himself. If someone disagrees, please post a comment. I could be mistaken. I just have not witnessed it.

Watch his press conference after today’s 31-21 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. You know that he is frustrated, and you know that the losing is eating him up inside; but he maintains his poise, finds whatever positives he can, and continues to profess his belief that his team can continue to improve with hard work and they have to go out an “earn a victory.” I have never read anything from a Lions player that is negative about Rod Marinelli, and he is the kind of man that I would like to play for.

Obviously the Lions have some pretty significant issues, both in talent and coaching, to be sitting at 0-14. And who knows, maybe Rod Marinelli just is not cut out to be a head coach in the NFL. He may be better suited to be a defensive coordinator or position coach. But he does not deserve to live in NFL infamy as the coach of an 0-16 team. I’m not saying that any coach does, but a I am saying that Rod Marinelli definitely does not. If he was an asshole, or a lying snake like Bobby Petrino, or an egomaniac who threw his team under the bus to save himself, I would feel differently. He is not — and damnit, I want to see him win.

(Caveat: I grew up in a football coaching family, and have seen all too well how hard coaches work and how difficult losing can be. You may say that I am overly sympathetic to the plight of a hard-working and passionate coach, who quite possibly may be in over his head. And you would probably be right. At the end of the day, either 1-15 or 2-14 is not a whole lot to hang your hat on. But at least it would not be 0-16 and would salvage some pride for a man who I think deserves to retain his.)

Another reason why I want to see the Lions win is for their fans. As a Dolphins fan, I lived through their 0-13 start last season. To say the least, it was not fun. Luckily, I had my ties to the Browns and their 10-6 record to assuage the pain of being a Dolfan. But for the loyal Lions fans who have suffered through Matt Millen, and so many years of futility, and now the economic quagmire that is hitting the auto industry that is the bread and butter of their city, an 0-16 season would just be adding unnecessary insult to unfortunate injury. I’ve never been to Detroit, and I only have a few friends who are from there. But I know that the city deserves better than to be the home of an 0-16 team.

And the final reason why I do not want to see the 0-14 Lions finish the 2008 season as the first ever 0-16 team is the players. All I heard all afternoon watching highlights was how hard and how desperate the Lions players are playing. They are undermanned, and they may even be outcoached in Xs and Os, but you have to respect a team that keeps fighting and that takes on the personality of their head coach in never relinquishing their pride and being passionate about their jobs.

I know that they are making a lot of money, and they should not be lauded for doing what they are supposed to do. But let’s be real. Athletes and teams tank it all the time. We’ve all seen football teams (the Raiders at many points this decade) play passionless, effortless football. We see NBA teams tank it to improve their lottery positioning. Stories of mega-millionaire players with guaranteed contracts like Vince Carter “mailing it in” are almost cliched. Well the Detroit Lions are not doing that. They are fighting. And they’ve earned my respect.

Luckily, what looked like a rough finish to the season has turned out to be not so tough. The Saints and Packers have both been eliminated from playoff contention, and now have even less to play for than the Lions. Everyone has pride to play for, but the Lions are in desperation mode. All things being equal, I will always give the edge in the NFL to the team that has more to play for. The Lions are playing for their pride, and to remove themselves from NFL infamy.

The Packers are giving games away like candy on Halloween, while Reggie Bush and Sean Payton are trading sarcastic potshots through the media. So not only am I rooting for the Detroit Lions to win, I think they will. And I’m actually going to go on record right now and predict that not only will the Lions win one game, but I think they finish the season on a two game winning streak. Wishful thinking? Maybe. But I think the Lions deserve it.

And just ask Dolphins fans just how futile wishful thinking is. Most objective observers would have called Dolphins fans crazy before the season started if they had said the Fins had a chance to make the playoffs this year. Well, the Dolphins are surprisingly still fighting for an AFC East crown, which should give Lions fans hope that anything is possible in the NFL, and that their silver lining could be right around the corner.

Here’s hoping that the Detroit Lions’ silver lining begins to break through the dark clouds of their 2008 season next week against New Orleans, and that Rod Marinelli and his Lions players get exactly what they deserve: a win.

Comment Questions:

1. Do you want to see the Detroit Lions win a game in 2008? Why or why not?
2. Do you think the Lions will win one of their remaining two games in 2008?

Kyle Orton leads Vikings to the top of the NFC North

In what many are calling a “mental error”, Bears Quarterback Kyle Orton got some faulty halftime advice from back-up QB Rex Grossman on what to do in the second half Sunday night against the Vikings.

After a brief conference in which Grossman imparted some sage-like advice to his one-time third string backup, Orton threw three second half interceptions that led to Minnesota’s 17 unanswered second half points.

Panthers Win While Packers Argue Over Who Should Make a Big Play

The Packers dropped another close game after an argument amongst special teams and defensive players erupted over who would be the one to step up and make a big play. In the “we should really win this one though a loss would not completely eliminate us from winning our weak division” game, Packers players were all insisting that someone else stop at least someone from scoring in the crucial fourth quarter. Amid the confusion and finger-pointing, Carolina cruised downfield and won the game at Lambeau.

Detroit Players Regret Eating Turkey Before Thanksgiving Game

The Lions front office, feeling left out after having to work 69 thanksgivings in the last 74 years, decided that this year they would have themselves a grand turkey dinner in the locker room on Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, the turkeys arrived before the game and the players all ate before remembering they had a game to play against the Titans. In what turned into a tryptophan induced performance, the Lions entertained a capacity crowd for 13 minutes before the rest of the Ford Field crowd hit the exits to go and eat their own turkeys before laying down at home.

***This post is for 2008. The 2009 Thanksgiving day football TV schedule has been posted.

Thanksgiving Day is almost upon us, and that means a bevy of things: turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce, family two hand touch in the yard, bloated passing out on the couch, and of course, NFL football.

I was just checking the NFL schedule for Week 13 in preparation for writing this post and I received some outstanding news: there are three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day this year. I thought that there were only two. I did not think that there was any way that I could be more excited for Thanksgiving Day; now I know that there is. More football!

(And if you want even more football, check out the College Football TV Schedule for Thanksgiving Weekend.)

Anyway, let’s get down to business. A quick rundown of the Thanksgiving Day TV schedule, announcer pairings, and my meaningless predictions. The point spreads have not been posted as of me writing, at least anywhere I looked. I’ll update the post later this week once they are announced. (Update: Point spreads and over-under odds are updated.)

And I did not find the official announcer pairings listed anywhere either; however, I am making my best educated guess by listing the #1 team for each network. They usually handle the Thanksgiving Day games.

Here we go:

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

• 12:30 ET on CBS
• Announcer Pairing: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Point Spread: Tennessee Titans -11
• Over-Under: 44
• Prediction: I am going out on a limb right now and saying that Detroit will get their first (and possibly only) victory on Thanksgiving Day. The Titans just lost to the Jets, and I have a feeling they could be slightly deflated after seeing their undefeated record go by the wayside. And the pretty much have the AFC South clinched, so I think a slight letdown is possible. I have seen numerous opinion pieces this week about how the Detroit Lions should lose their annual slot on Thanksgiving Day because of their franchise’s putridity. Tennessee is the MUCH better team, but I think that for this one day the pride of the Lions will be on display.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

• 4:15 ET on FOX
• Announcer Pairing: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, and Pam Oliver
• Point Spread: Dallas Cowboys -13
• Over-Under: 47
• Prediction: Dallas is going to win this one in a rout. Tony Romo is back and getting into a rhythm, and it looks like the Cowboys figured out how to get T.O. involved in the offense again. The Cowboys are starting to get on a roll and their 2008 season could end up looking a lot like the 2007 season of the Giants — which ended in a Super Bowl run after they got hot near midseason despite struggling in the first half of the season. Seattle will play hard, and they do have Matt Hasselfavre back, but it won’t matter. Dallas will win by at least 20.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

• 8:15 ET on NFL Network
• Announcer Pairing: Bob Papa and Chris Collinsworth
• Point Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -3
• Over-Under: 46 1/2
• Prediction: With the turmoil that Philadelphia current has going on, it is hard to pick the Eagles. And now that they are pretty much out of the playoff picture, I could see a letdown performance by the Eagles. And despite the Cardinals’ loss to the Giants today, this is a really good team. I love Kurt Warner, and I just don’t think that the Eagles are capable of scoring enough points to stay in this game. Somehow, I think the Eagles will keep it close through the second half, but the Cardinals will pull away late for the Thanksgiving Day victory.

All of us here at Midwest Sports Fans wish you and your family a hearty and happy Thanksgiving with your family, and a wonderful day of food and football. What could be better? That’s why Thanksgiving is the quintessential American holiday.

[tags]thanksgiving nfl, detroit lions, nfl tv schedule[/tags]

The Lions new acquisition, Daunte Culpepper reported to the Lions practice facility on Monday after signing a two year deal, bringing the 31-year old veteran back into the league.

Onto the importance of this: the potential fantasy value of Daunte Culpepper. We all know the history behind Daune Culpepper: an amazing career with Minnesota when he had Randy Moss to reel in his 60 yard bombs, and then an apparent post-injury implosion as he toured with the Raiders and the Dolphins.

Initially, I find Culpepper to hold no fantasy value. He does not know the offense, nor will he learn it in five days. He cannot possibly be in NFL game shape yet, and by the way, Detroit is 0-8! This injury was a shame for Orlovsky, who looked impressive, for a Lions quarterback, last week against a good Chicago Defense.

I do think that Daune Culpepper has a chance to earn the starting job based on the competition he is surrounded by, and Culpepper could be a player with fantasy value in the future. I just do not see any value in the immediate future. Daunte Culpepper would benefit from more talent around him on the offensive side of the ball, and I am sure he would like to have Roy Williams back as well.

To you Detroit Lions fans, it will get better in time, and I feel for you, as I am a Wolverines fan and know all about the difference a good quarterback can make

Kurt Fraschetti

fraschetti@midwestsportsfans.com

[tags]daunte culpepper, fantasy football, nfl, detroit lions[/tags]

Here are my top 5 NFL teams and bottom 5 NFL teams heading into week 10.

1. New York Giants / 7-1- I know, I know, I hear you all already, I can see the responses, how can the 7-1 Giants be ranked higher than the 8-0 Titans? Simple. They play in a much tougher conference, and are the defending Super Bowl Champions. Minus the Cleveland Browns game, they look far more impressive than they did in their Super Bowl run last year.

2. Tennessee Titans / 8-0- When I watch this team, it reminds me of the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team. Great running game, great defensive play, and a quarterback who manages the game, with one exception. Kerry Collins has proven this year that he has the accuracy and decision making to produce an effective pass game as well.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers / 6-2- Again, great defense with a talented mix on offense. The Steelers, even through injuries, manage to center their offensive scheme around what talent they have to work with. Mike Tomlin has been impressive through his first year and a half at the helm and definitely has his players performing at a high level.

4. Arizona Cardinals / 5-3- Yes, the Cardinals. This is a compelling team to me with several intangibles going for them. They are the highest scoring team in the league with 234 points scored. Kurt Warner is my MVP at this point in the season and their defense does just enough to keep them in games. If their chemistry grows, there is no telling what this team is capable of.

5. Philadelphia Eagles / 5-3- There are several teams that could have qualified for my number 5 position, including the Redskins, who Philly is currently looking up at in the division. Philly has scored 220 points, to Washington’s 171 points. The Eagles Defense has only allowed 144 points against, where the Redskins have allowed 168 points against. If McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy, the Eagles are a dangerous team.

32. Detroit Lions / 0-8- Need I say more.

31. Kansas City Chiefs / 1-7- What in the hell was Herman Edwards thinking when he took this mess over. Kansas City is a disaster, and must find some stability at the quarterback position to stand a chance.

30. Oakland Raiders / 2-6- See above. Just reverse the term quarterback with the term head coach.

29. Cincinnati Bengals / 1-8- This team, talent-wise, has more than the Raiders and if not for the loss of Carson Palmer, the Bengals would most likely have a better record than the Browns.

28. A toss up here. I had a mental fight between the St. Louis Rams and the San Fransisco 49ers, but the 49ers win. If Jim Haslet were not the Rams coach, they would easily have been in the bottom 3. The 49ers have not had stability at the quarterback position since they let Jeff Garcia go. Their offense has been a complete mess with the exception of Frank Gore. They have a good defense, but their offense keeps them on the field entirely too much. I like the move to Mike Singletary at Head Coach, I just hope for 49ers fans, the players respond.

On a side note, the Cleveland Browns will replace the 49ers next week if they do not produce a win this Thursday versus the Broncos. The Seahawks earn an honorable mention to the bottom 5. Mike Holmgren is not having the type of season most head coaches would want to leave their legacy on.

Kurt Fraschetti

fraschetti@midwestsportsfans.com

[tags]nfl power rankings[/tags]