Instead, let’s talk about the best Super Bowls that never happened.

Talking hypothetical is one of my favorite things to do because there is really no right or wrong answer, because we don’t and will never know. What would have happened if Mark Brunell won a Super Bowl? Would there have been a belief that left-handed quarterbacks were the future of football?

I could have even gone the route of writing hypothetical Super Bowls between the Seattle Seahawks and the Saskatchewan Rough Riders, because I’m sure in some alternate universe (like after hypothetical Super Bowl XVII) that it could have happened.

Rather than getting all crazy and doing that, let’s just stick with teams that actually qualified for the playoffs during the year of said Super Bowl. It’s a lot easier that way.

1. Super Bowl X – Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Drew Pearson pushed off (go to the 2:00 mark). I don’t know how anyone can say he didn’t. The first Hail Mary was a fraud people. It’s about time we finally admitted it. The Vikings went 12-2 in 1975, were the top seed in the NFC, and lost because of a blown call by the referees. Not cool, Drew Pearson. Not cool at all.

2. Super Bowl XVI – Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I do not like the Cowboys at all, but I do have to say they got robbed of a Super Bowl appearance in 1982 courtesy of the 49ers and “The Catch”. It would be the first of five Super Bowl wins for the 49ers, four of them behind the arm of Joe Montana.

If Dwight Clark didn’t make that catch, the West Coast Offense would have been passed off as a phase and a gimmick, Bill Walsh would have retired as the head coach at Washington State, and Joe Montana would be wearing ShapeUps that he had to buy with his own money.

3. Super Bowl XVII – Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns

The playoffs leading up to Super Bowl XVII might be my favorite thing in the history of professional sports (other than a hypothetical Vikings Championship, of course.)

Because of the players’ strike during the 1982 season and the resulting nine-game regular season, the NFL decided to allow eight teams into the playoffs (instead of the usual four) from each conference. This was subsequently named the “Super Bowl Tournament” and included the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns who both had records of 4-5, marking the first time any team had made the postseason with a losing record.

How great would it have been to have a Super Bowl played between two No. 8 seeds? The sixth seed from the AFC, the New York Jets, advanced to the Conference Final before losing to the Dolphins, but we’ve seen a sixth seed win the Super Bowl before thanks to the Wild Card.

The NFL had one chance to have an eighth-seeded team with a losing record become a Super Bowl Champion and they blew it. What would have happened if the Browns or Lions would have actually made it to the big game, let alone won it?

Would the NFL have been attacked by critics for allowing their players to strike, which lead to a shortened season that ended with a sub-.500 team winning the Super Bowl, therefore tarnishing the reputation of anyone involved with the NFL? All of this allowing the USFL to step in and be a legitimate competitor, forcing another merger and leave the National Football League of America with too many teams that they would eventually have to contract teams instead of grow in popularity and expand. Would that have happened?

If this Super Bowl would have happened, we never would have had the Jaguars or Texans or Panthers. Jim Kelly would have never lost four Super Bowls with the Bills. Steve Young would probably never be a Hall of Famer. Hershel Walker would be the greatest running back of all time, and the Vikings would have never handed the Cowboys three Super Bowl rings on a silver platter.

For all we know, the National Football League of America could have failed miserably and become a low-rate professional sport right next to jai hali and SlamBall.

4. Super Bowl XXI – New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns

The Drive. I feel bad for Cleveland Browns fans. I knew they were terribly unlucky and everything, but then I started doing research for this article. I can’t imagine what it would be like to lose multiple playoff games the way they did, and have the team they lost to go on to get absolutely killed in the Super Bowl.

I wrote down 15 hypothetical Super Bowls. The Browns appeared in six of them. I think I’m going to start being a Browns fan out of pity. I feel bad for them. As a Vikings fan, I’m here for you and know your pain. Speaking of the Vikings and Browns…

5. Super Bowl XXII – Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns

I had to do this one. Vikings vs. Browns. The two unluckiest franchises in NFL history squaring off a Super Bowl? The Vikings got knocked out of the playoffs after Darrin Nelson dropped a fourth-down pass late in the fourth quarter against the Redskins. The Browns lost on “the fumble” to the Broncos.

Literally anything could have happened. Imagine all the possibilities! It would be a contest to see which team could kill more fans in the span of three and a half hours.

To their credit, both teams deserve to make fake Super Bowls (the Vikings have four on this list, Browns have three). They probably wouldn’t have even won any of them anyway. Is it even possible for a team to lose seven Super Bowls? I don’t ever want to find out. Maybe it’s a good thing the Vikings and Browns will never make another real Super Bowl. It’s probably better that way.

6. Super Bowl XXVI – Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

I really only included this one because I feel we as Americans were cheated out of seeing Barry Sanders ever play in a Super Bowl. In 1991 the Lions went 12-4, were the No. 2 seed out of the NFC, and made it to the NFC Championship game before losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Washington Redskins.

7. Super Bowl XXXIII – Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos

I’ve written about this game a lot in the past, so I’ll just keep it short. Because if I don’t, it will end up being 5,000 words that eventually lead me to comparing my moral compass to the ending of a football game that I watched when I was 8 years old.

15-1 record. Best offense in NFL history. Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Randall Cunningham, Robert Smith. Injuries, horrible coaching, and the worst kick of Gary Anderson’s career crushed Minnesota. And they’ve never recovered.

And the Dirty Bird was the dumbest end zone celebration ever.

8. Super Bowl XXXIV – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Buccaneers lost in the NFC Championship game to the Rams by the oddest football score ever, 11-6, after the Rams scored a late fourth-quarter touchdown. It would take the Buccaneers another three years to finally reach the Super Bowl, and Kurt Warner became the greatest grocery bagger in NFL history.

The Jaguars were the No. 1 seed in the AFC in 1999 and put 62 points on the board in the division round against the Dolphins. They lost in the AFC Championship game to the Titans, who barely made it out of the first round, only doing so with a little play famously known as the “Music City Miracle.”

I have no idea what a Buccaneers-Jaguars Super Bowl would have been. I would have probably ditched the Vikings as my favorite team for the Buccaneers and would now have four different John Lynch jerseys in my closet. I suppose Fred Taylor would be a definite Hall of Fame running back and Tom Coughlin would now be the head coach of the Ravens.

9. Super Bowl XXXVI – St. Louis Rams vs. Oakland Raiders

The Tuck Rule. Super Bowl win number one for Tom Brady. Beginning of the end for Kurt Warner in St. Louis.

If the Patriots don’t win against Oakland, it is not inconceivable that Drew Bledsoe would have been reinstated as the starting quarterback in Boston, Tom Brady would have been traded to some team like the Chiefs or Texans, and Bill Simmons would have hopefully given up talking about football.

10. Super Bowl XLII – Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots

Brett Favre’s last pass as a Green Bay Packer was an interception in overtime which led the Giants to kick a game winning field goal to advance to Super Bowl XLII and spoil the Patriots chance at a perfect season.

Had the Packers beaten the Giants, one would have to believe that Favre would have retired after the season and actually stayed retired, Super Bowl win or not. Losing a Super Bowl to only the only team to win 19 games in a season is a much better ending than not even having the opportunity.

None of this happened of course, which helped set up Hypothetical Super Bowl No. 11.

11. Super Bowl XLIV – Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts

Can’t blame me for this one either. The Vikings were the best team in the league in 2009, thanks in part to Brett Favre playing the smartest (and arguably best) football of his life.

Unfortunately there was Brad Childress and his love for settling for 45-yard, game winning field goals. And then there was the Vikings getting flagged for having 12 men in the huddle RIGHT AFTER A TIMEOUT! Next play: Favre interception.

By the end of the game I was lying on my kitchen floor with my shirt over my face. Literally the worst night of my life.

I started writing for MSF two days later after comparing the Vikings-Saints game to lyrics by Hootie and the Blowfish. Weirdest thing I’ve ever written. At least something good came out of it.

It should be a shootout this time around, as both quarterbacks threw for over 5,000 yards this season.

Detroit Lions

The Lions come in at 10-6, and 5-3 on the road. They finished the season 5-6 after their 5-0 start, but they comfortably secured a playoff spot. They could have been the five seed, but their defense was torched by Matt Flynn and the majority of the Packers in Week 17.

Matt Stafford had a historically great season, passing for over 5,000 yards and 41 toucdowns. He has the benefit of throwing to Calvin Johnson aka “MegaTron”, who hauled in 16 touchdowns this season.

The Lions will have two options in today’s game. One will be to try and establish the run game early and control the ball. The Saints have the 12th ranked rush defense, which could make this tough. The other option is to come out firing, being very aggressive in the pass game. There is no doubt that New Orleans will score early and often, so the Lions will have to match the intensity. If Stafford can not turn the ball over, there is no reason why this game cannot come down to the wire.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions will have Ndamukong Suh, who did not play in the last meeting against the Saints. He provides a presence up front that provides pressure, but it is tough to just use pressure on Brees. He is great at getting the ball out of his hands quickly, and finding the open man. The Lions secondary will have to step up and play their best game of the year.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints come in at 13-3, and 8-0 at home. They could have been the #2 seed if they had beaten weak teams in Tampa Bay and St. Louis, but they could not. Either way, they come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in football.

Drew Brees and the Saints are winners of eight straight, in which they have scored no less than 22 in a game, and given up no more than 24 in a game. In their last two games against Atlanta and Carolina, they outscored those two teams 90-33.

The defense of New Orleans is ranked 30th in passing, but that is partially attributed to the fact that they are taking it easy at the end of games when they have big leads. It is the same reason why the Patriots and Packers are at the bottom of the defensive rankings. As long as the defense can hold the Lions under 28 points, the offense can easily outscore them.

Saints-Lions Prediction

The Saints had a very disappointing exit last season in Seattle, but I do not see the Saints being upset once again. They are at their home stadium this time, and with the acquisition of Darren Sproles, along with the breakout season by Jimmy Graham, there is no reason why they should not win this game.

Prediction: Saints 34 | Lions 24

**********

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

• Lions-Saints Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 7th at 8:00 on NBC
• Lions-Saints Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
• Lions-Saints Point Spread: Saints -10.5
• Lions-Saints Over-Under: 58.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

• Bengals-Texans Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 7th at 4:30 on NBC
• Bengals-Texans Announcers: Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, and Alex Flanagan
• Bengals-Texans Point Spread: Texans -4 (up from -3 earlier in the week)
• Bengals-Texans Over-Under: 39
• Bengals-Texans Spread Pick: I know that the trendy pick here will be Cincinnati because they have the hot young studs in AJ Green and Andy Dalton while the Texans are a mess at QB and have dealt with injuries all year. I’m still picking the Texans though, mainly because they are at home. Houston fans have been waiting for this moment ever since pro football came back to the city. While I don’t think NFL fans can will a team to victory like fans can in college basketball, if there is any place in the NFL that could do it, it would be partisans in Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Houston still has an effective ground game, plus Andre Johnson back to keep defenses honest. The return of Wade Phillips will also help the defense, as it did in Week 17. And Cincinnati, as exciting as they are with their young talent, still has a lot of young talent in key positions. Their time will come, I think; it just won’t be this day. Bengals-Texans free pick: Texans -4 (No change in my pick, as Andy Dalton’s bout with the flu this week has me even more worried about how he will play.)
  
• MSF: Bengals-Texans Preview and Prediction

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

• Lions-Saints Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 7th at 8:00 on NBC
• Lions-Saints Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
• Lions-Saints Point Spread: Saints -10.5 (same as earlier in the week)
• Lions-Saints Over-Under: 58.5
• Lions-Saints Spread Pick: TAKE THE OVER!!! That’s my pick. Though, I have to say, now that everyone is commenting on how attractive the over is, I’m starting to think this might be one of those games that defies expectation and becomes lower scoring than we think. … Ah hell, what am I saying, not a chance. Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford are going to be directing a spectacular fireworks show on Saturday, and it will make this the most entertaining game of the weekend. I just don’t think it will be particularly close. Atlanta always plays the Saints tough, yet New Orleans throttled them two weeks ago on MNF. Last week, the Saints throttled a Carolina team that had been playing much better football of late. If Detroit couldn’t be the Packers with Matt Flynn at QB and no Greg Jennings, what makes us think they can compete in New Orleans against Drew Brees and a healthy complement of weapons? Regardless though, congrats to the Lions for making it this far. Even with a loss Saturday, this season is an unequivocal victory for Detroit. Lions-Saints free pick: Saints -10.5

We should have a Saints-Lions preview up later on in the day.

If you haven’t been listening to their weekly breakdown of all things Packers, Bears, Lions, and Vikings, you really should start.

Why not tonight?

Show details:

• Date: Wednesday, January 4th
• Time: 6:00 CT (7:00 ET)
• Call-in number: (858) 365-5571 (also use this number to listen to the show anywhere right from your phone)

Listen live right here at MSF starting at 6:00 CT:

As for tonight’s topics, here is what the NFC North Report crew plans to discuss.

Tentative Show schedule:

• Welcome: Final thoughts on season for Drew and Tyler

• Packers Talk – Matt Flynn success and the Packers “system”

• Bears Talk – Staff changes and looking to the 2012 season

• Vikings Talk – Jared Allen ties Minnesota’s sack record

• Lions Talk – Playoff ready

• Playoff previews

• Plus random shenanigans throughout

In case you didn’t know about it or had to miss it, and are now distraught about what you may have missed last week, we’ve got you covered. Listen to the Week 17 edition of The NFC North Report right here:

Before we as sports fans switch our focus to other items like March Madness or the Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight that I will keep assuming will happen, we get 11 more games that make up the annual NFL playoffs. These 660 minutes will re-write, or at very least alter, the season’s script to which many think they already know the ending.

The Packers repeating as Super Bowl champions was once treated like a given...but should they even be considered the favorites anymore?

Remember, last season at this time, the Green Bay Packers were a #6 seed that only made the playoffs because the New York Giants practically handed them the last spot.

So, with that in mind, I thought I would give you some insights to, depending on your objectives, make some money during playoff season or simply sound smart around the water cooler.

I have put together 10 predictions and things that you should look for during the playoffs. I guarantee at least three or four of them will be right.

#10: The NFL Wanted Parity, They Got Mediocrity.

It is great for ratings that everyone’s favorite team has a chance to compete, if not one year, then certainly the next. Ever since St. Louis and a former Hy-Vee bag boy came from nowhere to win the Super Bowl just over a decade ago, we have had a revolving door for the most part.

The problem with this is that the quality at the top of the league is watered down, and the opportunity for epic battles between the titans is low, because there are no titans. Every team has major flaws.

So, the bad news is that the overall level of play may be lower in the playoffs than 20+ years ago, but the good news is that the results are more unpredictable.

#9: To Play Touch Football or To Risk Death.

This one really has nothing to do with the playoffs, but the National Football League has a conundrum.

The league continues to come down with harsher penalties for hard and high and low and late hits. The problem is they continue to take aggression out of a game that is by design violent. On the flip side, if they don’t, with players as big and strong as they are today, there will be the first death on the field since Warren Beatty in Heaven Can Wait.

I really an not sure what the league can do about this, but this issue, with on-field injuries combined with the lasting effects of concussions, will haunt this league for a long, long time.

#8: Every Once in a While, It Sucks to be Vegas.

Detroit is playing at New Orleans. The two quarterbacks in this game have combined for three of the five seasons of 5,000 yards passing in NFL history. Both defenses give up points, and Detroit’s even scores some.

Vegas opened the total of this game at 58.5, higher than any total (previous high was 57 in 2009 when the Saints battled that Hy Vee bag boy and the Cardinals), but probably not high enough to keep 80% of the action from going on the over.

Is there any way Drew Brees scores less than 38? Will Stafford score less than 28? And Vegas can’t even get bad weather indoors….

#7: Tim Tebow is the Worst Starting Playoff QB in last 10 Years, and That Includes Trent Dilfer.

Tim Tebow is a fantastic human being. He is a wonderful leader of men. He was a tremendous college quarterback. But, let’s face it, now that the league has figured out the Denver gimmicks, Tebow is not a quality starting quarterback in the NFL.

In his last three games, Tebow is 30-73 (41%, ouch), with 1 TD and 4 INT’s. And he has lost multiple fumbles as well. The best thing that can possibly happen this week to Denver is that Tebow and crew get shut out, so that John Elway can do what he knows is the right thing: find the franchise quarterback of the future.

#6: The 49ers Have the Formula to Win It All, If It Were 1986.

The 49ers run the ball very effectively with Frank Gore, control the ball with Alex Smith making few mistakes, and play great defense. That was a great formula before teams started scoring 500+ points a season.

As great as their defense is, the teams they will face in the NFC will get their points, and Jim Harbaugh’s team will just not be able to keep up.

#5: When Was the Last Time Two Rookie QB’s Started Against Each Other in a Playoff Game?

Houston has waited FOREVER to get to the playoffs, and now that they are here, their hopes rest on the shoulders of rookie 5^th round draft choice T.J. Yates. Yates has come a long way since beating out Greg Paulus’ brother for the starting job in Chapel Hill a few years back.

The Texans will try to rely on a great one-two running attack of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The problem is that the Bengals have a top 5 rush defense.

I am not sure that Andy Dalton and his weapons have enough experience to take advantage of this opportunity on the road, but one thing I look for is the anti-Lions/Saints, with a final score like you might find after the 1^st quarter in New Orleans.

#4: Watch Out For the New York (Football) Giants.

Admittedly, the Giants only got into the playoffs because the Eagles did not realize the season had started until 75% of it had been completed. But this team is for real and can beat anyone.

Eli Manning has taken his level of play up significantly this year, and on the defensive side of the ball, with Umenyiora back with Tuck and JPP, they have enough pass rush to hide their deficiencies in their thin secondary.

If they get by the Falcons this weekend, watch for a monumental upset the following weekend, because….

#3: Green Bay Will Not Win the Super Bowl.

Green Bay has had a spectacular season. But they, better than anyone after their run last season, understand that the Super Bowl is not always won by the best team of the season, but the team that is playing the best at the end.

Green Bay will get a boost if they get Greg Jennings back for the playoff push, but as you look at the competition, other teams are just playing better right now.

#2: Will the Patriots Win a Playoff Game?

It has been four long years since David Tyree made the LAST catch of his illustrious career and kept the Patriots from a perfect 19-0 season by winning Super Bowl XLII. The Patriots have not won a playoff game since.

While they went 13-3 this season, do not be surprised if that playoff futility continues after their bye week.

The Patriots defense is awful, so bad that they have used receivers as starters in their secondary multiple times this season. As great as Tom Brady is, if they run into a well-rounded team, they will have a difficult time advancing, even with the friendly Foxborough crowd locked in throughout the AFC playoffs.

#1: New Orleans Will Beat Baltimore in Indianapolis.

First, I thought Pittsburgh would get to the big game, but I have switched to Baltimore because they are healthier than Pittsburgh heading into the playoffs, especially with news that Rashard Mendenhall may be out.

But these are the two teams that will wade through the kiddie pool and get to swim in the deep end. And in the end, Drew Brees and company will have just enough to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the second time.

And then, we will be less than 6 months away from training camps!

It’s a special Thursday night edition of the podcast, previewing an interesting pre-playoff matchup between the Lions and Packers, in addition to taking a look at the Bears-Vikings game this weekend. Both games within the division should equal some quality entertainment and debate on the podcast.

Show details:

• Date: Thursday, December 29th
• Time: 6:00 CT (7:00 ET)
• Call-in number: (858) 365-5571 (also use this number to listen to the show anywhere right from your phone)

Listen to this week’s episode of the NFC North Report using the player below:

Here’s the rundown for this week’s edition of the NFC North Report

Tentative Show schedule:

• Intro
• Recap Week 16 games
  Vikings win
  Detroit dominates
  Santa is a Packers fan
  Tyler’s take on Josh McCown
• Pro Bowl Snubs/Why does the Pro Bowl Exist?
  Lions and Vikings with 1, Bears with 5 and Packers with 7
  Jordy Nelson
  Joe Webb
• Preview Games (Division matchups!)
  Bears vs Vikings (Could the Vikes win?)
  Detroit vs Packers (Do Packers play to win or rest starters?)

• Plus random shenanigans throughout

Here is a rundown of the NFC playoff scenarios. (Click here to see the AFC playoff scenarios.)

NFC Playoff Scenarios

Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants

This one is pretty easy.

The Cowboys and Giants play Sunday night. Whichever team wins becomes the NFC East champion and will get a first round home game. Neither team can make the playoffs any other way.

Image credit: Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News via Wyld About Pro Football

Green Bay Packers

This one is also pretty easy. The 14-1 Packers clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with their win over the Bears last night.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers clinched the NFC West a while ago, so they will host a first round home game at a minimum. They are still alive for a first round bye as well, and in fact are in the driver’s seat.

The 49ers are 12-3, and the Saints already have three losses. Because the 49ers own the tic-breaker with the Saints, all San Fran has to do is beat woeful St. Louis next week to clinch the first round bye and #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. (Or, if New Orleans loses tonight to Atlanta, the 49ers don’t even have to beat St. Louis next week.)

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a clinched a playoff spot, but they are playing for a lot more than just a chance at the #2 seed when they face Atlanta tonight.

New Orleans hasn’t even yet clinched the NFC South division, nor a first round home game. They can do that tonight if they beat Atlanta. Even if the Saints don’t beat Atlanta tonight, they would still clinch the NFC South and a first round home game by winning their Week 17 game against Carolina or if Atlanta were to lose its Week 17 game to Tampa Bay.

If the Saints win both this week and next week, and San Francisco falls to St. Louis next week, the Saints would lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, a first round bye, and a second round home game.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons clinched at least a wild berth last night when Chicago lost to Green Bay. If they beat the Saints tonight, the Falcons maintain a shot at the NFC South title and a first round home game. As mentioned above, Atlanta would need to defeat the Bucs (should be easy) and New Orleans would need to lose to Carolina (not so easy).

Detroit Lions

The Lions clinched a playoff spot with their win over San Diego in Week 16. Because they play in the NFC North with Green Bay, they do not have a shot at anything more than a wild card road game in round one of the playoffs, regardless of what happens in Week 17. All that is still to be determined is who they will play.

NFC Playoff Predictions

Here is how I think the pivotal Week 17 games will go:

• Saints beat Atlanta (Week 16)
• Saints beat Carolina
• Atlanta beats Tampa Bay
• San Francisco beats St. Louis
• Giants beat Cowboys
• Lions beat Packers

This would create the following first round playoff matchups:

• Byes: Packers (14-2), 49ers (13-3)
• #3 Saints (13-3) v #6 Falcons (10-6)
• #4 Giants (9-7) v #5 Lions (11-5)

What do you think will happen? Comment below.

One, you are in your league’s championship round and looking for some advice as you try to make the most important lineup decisions of the season. We congratulate you, and we’re here for you. Skip ahead and start soaking in the analysis as you go for your league’s equivalent of The Shiva.

Two, you are in your league’s semifinal round, which means that you play your championship in Week 17. We’re still happy to help you make lineup decisions, but just know that we vehemently disagree with how your league is setup and blame you personally for going along with it.

Or three, you are devastated after a bad beat in Week 15 and engaging in the masochistic act of still reading fantasy football analysis even though you have nothing left to play for. This is pathetic and you should should be ashamed of yourself. Get over it man (or woman). Still though, we feel your pain. We’ve been there. So we welcome your wandering eyes as well.

I suppose you could also be in some kind of keeper league that uses the consolation bracket to help determine next year’s draft order (something we do highly encourage as a great idea) or a league in which money is doled out for third place (a less great idea). Either way, we group you with the first set of folks who still need advice even in Week 16.

Okay, onto this week’s Start/Sit picks…for anyone and everyone who may have stumbled upon this post today.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB – Matt Moore

Matt Moor-ino has been very solid the past seven games for which he’s been healthy, putting up at least 13 points in six of them. He’s not at all a high-profile name, but if you don’t have a top 12 QB, or Tim Tebow, I would look at giving Moore the nod in Week 16.

His best WR, Brandon Marshall, has been a TD-machine as of late, and they will also be playing the porous New England passing defense.

If you don’t have another option, look at Moore. You might even be able to pick him up off of the waiver wire.

Matt Moore fantasy football Week 16 projection: 285 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 yards rushing

Other Start Em QBs:

• Tim Tebow – On the road in Buffalo…depending on weather…he may RUSH for 100 yards…and throw in a few TDs as well.
• Mike Vick and Tony Romo – Let’s just say, I don’t think there will be a lot of great defense in this game on Saturday.

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hopefully, you got off of the Fitzpatrick bandwagon in week six…but he is still the #12 ranked fantasy QB and presents a LITTLE value from week to week based on matchups.

Not this week.

The Denver defense is incredibly over-rated (They are ranked 22nd overall, Tebow-haters. That’s a fact. Don’t try to argue against it.), but they have been much better against mediocre offenses. Fitzpatrick should have plenty of trouble against Denver’s speedy linebackers. Most of Buffalo’s offense has come on the ground lately, anyways…don’t expect that to change in week 16.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 16 projection: 225 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit Em QBs:

• Andy Dalton – This is not your “beginning-of-the-year-Cardinals-secondary” (stats forthcoming).
• Carson Palmer – We should all just sit him out of principle at this point, don’t you think?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em RB – CJ Spiller

Spiller has had GREAT days two of the last three weeks, including his monstrous 28-point performance last week. If the weather is bad in Buffalo this weekend, look for Spiller to have another breakout.

On wet/slippery/cold fields, the offense ALWAYS has the advantage – especially shifty playmakers like CJ Spiller.

CJ Spiller fantasy football Week 16 projection: 75 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter – Look for Hunter (who has looked absolutely AWESOME at times) to carry a little larger load down the stretch run of the season as Jim Harbaugh tries to keep Frank Gore fresh for the post-season.
• DeAngelo Williams – Favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, and plus, doesn’t he seem to KILL everybody in the fantasy playoffs like every single year?

Sit Em RB – Marshawn Lynch

Man. What a tough one. I absolutely LOVE Beast Mode. He’s been an absolute fantasy stud the past several weeks. This brings us to the age-old quandary, “Do you play the stud, or do you sit him because of the matchup?”

98% of the time, I would say you should always play the stud. But this year’s San Francisco run defense is FAR from ordinary. Through 14 weeks games, they have not allowed one single rushing touchdown all year!

It’s possible you have NO other options at RB and are forced to start Lynch, but if you have 2 or 3 other guys you like, don’t hesitate to sit Lynch against one of the best run defenses ever – that’s not hyperbole.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 16 projection: 60 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em RBs:

• Mike Tolbert – I think Mathews gets most of the touches this week.
• Ryan Grant – The Bears’ defense is great, and they will keep Grant blocked in all day.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR – Plaxico Burress

A complete hunch…but I think this is one of those weeks where he has like 4 catches for 28 yards…and TWO touchdowns.

He’s been pretty quiet lately, and the Giants will definitely be focusing on stopping the Jets’ running game. I think the Jets will counter by trying to give Sanchez some easier throws…and as bad as he is at times, Sanchez can throw that fade on the sideline very well. Look for Plax to get several looks in the red zone this week.

Plaxico Burress fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 28 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start Em WRs:

• DeSean Jackson, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant – Yes, I’m predicting at least 10 points for ALL of these WRs this week.
• DeMariyus Thomas – He’s actually the #1 WR in fantasy over the last three weeks. Tebow loves him, and he should have another good day in Buffalo this week.
• Victor Cruz – Read below.

Sit Em WR – Hakeem Nicks

Darrelle Revis is an awesome CB…but he’s slightly less awesome when he has to move inside and cover the slot WR. I expect Revis to stay outside and try to shut down the Giants’ deep threat this week. Victor Cruz will be the primary beneficiary as Eli will have to check down to him constantly.

Nicks MIGHT get free on one or two deep balls, but if he doesn’t (or if he drops them when perfectly thrown, like he did last week), he will be a fantasy disappointment in Week 16.

Hakeem Nicks fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em WRs:

• Brandon Lloyd – Against Pittsburgh AND he’s banged up AND the Rams have QB issues.
• Reggie Wayne – I’m finally turning on him…he’s just nothing without Peyton Manning. It’s a good thing it took me sixteen weeks…

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End – Greg Olsen

Cam LOVES his tight ends in the red zone, and look for Olsen to be the recipient this week.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em Tight End – Owen Daniels

The big fella is banged up, and I expect Houston to pull him as soon as they can tonight against the Colts. If they get up big, look for all of Houston’s studs to sit.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em Defense – ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is my game-changing pick of the week.

Did you know that the Cardinals defense has been improving all year, and that in the last seven weeks, they have only allowed EIGHT touchdowns.

I’ll let you guess where that ranks, league-wide.

Anyway, they will be playing a good Cincinnati team, but a team whose offense is definitely not “lights out” by any means.

If you don’t have one of the top three defenses, go ahead and swoop up the Arizona defense…to the surprise of everyone. And then dominate them this week to win your league.

Sit Em Defense – Detroit

All flash, no substance…especially against a rejuvenated San Diego offense. I would stay away from BOTH defenses in this game.

**********

Best of luck in Week 16 everyone! We’ll be here all week answering questions in the comment section, and we will have our weekly live chat on Saturday this week. We’ll see you then!

Why not tonight?

Show details:

• Date: Wednesday, December 21st
• Time: 6:00 CT (7:00 ET)
• Call-in number: (858) 365-5571 (also use this number to listen to the show anywhere right from your phone)

Listen live right here at MSF starting at 6:00 CT:

(Note: if for some reason 6:00 rolls around and this player isn’t working, click here to listen at BlogTalkRadio.com and please leave a comment below so we can work out any kinks. Thanks.)

As for tonight’s topics, here is what the NFC North Report crew plans to discuss, apparently at varying levels of sobriety if my Twitter stream is any indication.

Tentative Show schedule:

• Intro: Drew/Tyler have their fun talking about Packers loss

• Packers Talk – Fluke or falling: can we fix the issues?; Jennings, O-line injuries

• Bears Talk – Loss to Seahawks; Knox injury; Christmas game

• Vikings Talk – Drew wonders aloud “The Vikings played?”; Rodgers is Christian Ponder

• Lions Talk – Oakland game recap; Playoff bound?

• Preview and Predictions of all Week 16 games

• Plus random shenanigans throughout

In case you didn’t know about it or had to miss it, and are now distraught about what you may have missed last week, we’ve got you covered. Listen to the Week 15 edition of The NFC North Report right here:

Click play on the player below to listen:

]]> http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2011/12/nfc-north-report-week-16-edition/feed/ 1 http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2011/12/are-the-detroit-lions-playoff-bound-in-2011/ http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2011/12/are-the-detroit-lions-playoff-bound-in-2011/#comments Fri, 16 Dec 2011 16:00:32 +0000 Jeff http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/?p=42988 The Detroit Lions were one of the feel-good stories of the 2011 NFL season nine weeks ago. Winners of their first five games, the Lions were marching towards what appeared to be an eventual playoff appearance.

Fast forward nine weeks and, while still in the playoff picture, the Lions’ roar has subsided to a meow as the team has gone 3-5 since its perfect start.

At 8-5, the Lions are now masters of their own playoff destiny.

Their most straightforward qualifying scenario is simple: win each of their final three games — one of which is a potential history-making tilt at Green Bay in the regular season finale on New Year’s Day — and the Lions are in.

Anything less than perfect down the stretch will make the Lions’ playoff picture murkier. Because Green Bay has already clinched the NFC North title, one thing is clear for the Lions: the only way into the playoffs is as a wild-card entry.

Through Week 14, the Lions occupy the NFC’s final wild-card slot behind Atlanta (8-5), which holds the head-to-head tiebreaking advantage by virtue of the Falcons’ 23-16 win over the Lions on Oct. 23. Dallas and Chicago — both of which are 7-6 — are a game behind the Lions for the final playoff spot. New York (7-6) holds the tiebreaking edge over Dallas for the NFC East title, but the teams meet in the season finale in New York on Jan. 1.

The Lions’ prospects for making the playoffs are promising, but assuming they’re in would be a mistake.

The Lions’ playoff scenarios are numerous and confusing, but if the they can return to the level of play they exhibited to start the season, they will achieve their least-complicated platform to the playoffs.

Winning the final three games will not be easy, but should they lose one, all playoff hopes will not be lost. Lose two, and the chances are slim. Lose all three, and the Lions will likely be watching the postseason from home.

The Lions travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders (7-6) — who are in their own playoff chase — this Sunday, then host San Diego on Dec. 24 before closing out the season in Green Bay on Jan. 1.

Offensive Keys to Success

Matthew Stafford has had a good season at the helm of the Lions in 2011, throwing for 3,754 yards and 29 touchdowns against 14 interceptions, ranking him 8^th in the NFL.

Stafford’s top target is Calvin Johnson, who has 72 receptions for 1,121 yards and 12 touchdowns.

If Detroit’s passing game can produce against the Raiders (17^th against the pass), the Chargers (7^th) and Packers (30^th), the Lions’ outlook is bright.

Although the Lions’ running game is not its strongpoint, if the running back corps of Maurice Morris and Kevin Smith can keep teams on their toes enough for the passing game to kick in, look out. Morris was injured in the Lions’ Week 14 win over Minnesota but is expected to play against the Raiders. Smith, who missed Week 14, has been practicing with the team and is hopeful for Sunday’s game.

Defensive Keys to Success

Ndamukong Suh returns from a league-imposed, two-game suspension to bolster the Lions’ defense, which ranks 17^th overall in the league, 9^th against the pass, and 26^th against the rush. If Suh can keep his composure and do what he does best — play the game — the Lions defense should fare well against a struggling Raider passing game that ranks 16^th in the league.

The Lions’ pass defense will be put to the test against San Diego (8^th in passing) and Green Bay (3^rd), but may get a reprieve against the Packers, depending on how things unfold during Weeks 15 and 16.

The Lions’ front line and linebackers are opening up the season-ending playoff push against the Raiders’ 6^th-ranked rushing game which is led by Michael Bush (764 yard, 7 touchdowns) who is starting in place of the injured Darren McFadden. Keeping the Raiders’ running game in check will go a long way in helping the Lions get off on the right foot.

Projection

After all is said and done, will the Lions make the playoffs this season? In a word: YES!!!

What do you think?

Jeff Herbst (born and raised in the Midwest) has had a passion for sports ever since he could first walk and has been a Lions fan through the years (good times and bad). He works with Phoenix Bats, a company that manufacturers world-class wood bats such as their signature composite wood bats for amateur and professional ball players around the world.

Also, forgive Lions fans who pass out in the middle of games in which their team gets up big on the hapless Minnesota Vikings and Joe Webb ends up playing quarterback.

I know, I know…the game ended with plenty of drama and the Vikings lining up for a potentially game-tying touchdown on the final snap, but were it not for the boredom and/or inebriation of one Lions fan in particular, we would never have been able to witness this incredible feat of Lions fandom.

My favorite part of the video is the triumphant raising of the arms into the air by our intrepid mini-megaphone and bottle stacker.

I don’t know this man, so I’m being highly presumptuous, but just from the look on his face and it appears possible that this is his biggest accomplishment of the week (or maybe even of all of 2011).

And why shouldn’t he be proud? He made an entire section of people cheer for him by stacking four individual objects on top of eachother on top of the head of a (presumably) living person who is passed out. That’s not easy. But he did it, just like Jim Schwartz may finally get the Lions back to the playoffs.

Well done Lions fan. Well done.

In related news*, the passed out fan later woke up, vomited everywhere, and is now referred to by everyone in the section as Ndamukong Spew.

**********

* – This is made up and most likely not true at all.

The ad would go something like this…

‘I’m Mayhem. I’m 6’4”, 300+ pounds, and was the second overall pick in the 2010 National Football League Draft.’

‘My aggressive play has gone over the line on numerous occasions to the point that Commissioner Roger Goodell sent me on a two-week vacation after stomping on an opponent on national television’

‘So, I’m chillin’. I’m back in Portland, with my ride, a classic 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle, and my women.’

‘It’s late on a Friday night, and we’re about to do some clubbing…’

‘Wait, I see a parked taxi. RE-CALCULATING, SPEED UP – NOW!!!!!!!’

‘SCREEEEEEEECH….’

If you have a cut-rate insurance company whose spokesman is Brian Orakpo, you might be paying for this yourself.

It might not rank with the epic campaign Aaron Rodgers currently has going with State Farm.

Hell, it probably doesn’t even rank with Aaron Rodgers campaign with attorney David Gruber – in this spot AR asks Gruber to clarify the difference is between an underinsured and uninsured driver…

Wait a minute. Didn’t Rodgers go to Cal?? I heard that’s supposed to be a halfway-decent academic school.

Rodgers is WAY too good for pitching an attorney’s services. That would be a better sponsor for Suh, who is going to need the legal advice now that the two women are claiming injuries.

But as was the case in the infamous Kellen Winslow motorcycle mishap a few years back, you know there was more than smoke when the initial reports came out about the Suh crash. And the ‘taxi-cab’ he supposedly had to beat off pit road?? There’s a possibility that it was invisible.

Lose control of your rig? It’s a street in downtown Portland, not the backstretch of Michigan International Speedway. And I don’t think an invisible taxi is going to get a 1970 Chevelle aero-loose. Not even Jeremy Mayfield loaded up on meth could pull that one off.

But then again, this is not Suh’s first time at this rodeo. While playing for Nebraska, Suh managed to take out three parked cars with an SUV. The alibi that time was that Suh was swerving to avoid a cat.

In the aftermath Suh was fined $60, paid an additional $48 in court costs and got his wrist slapped by Cornhuskers Head Coach Bo Pellini.

Was that all? No wonder Ari Kaufman loves Lincoln so much.

Thankfully, Ndamukong didn’t accept a scholarship with Colorado, where he would have had to contend with cougars, bears, and deer on the roads.

Expect Suh’s relationship with Chrysler to come to an end in the very-near future, as he was caught red-handed wrecking a Chevrolet. But he picks up Allstate and a prominent personal injury attorney in the Detroit metropolitan area.

Now, just maybe, Ndamukong can start to mellow a little – before his football career falls into a State of Disaster…

For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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So let’s all be happy that NBC decided to use its flex option.

Detroit Lions

The news surrounding the Lions this week has been about Ndamukong Suh, and his two game suspension for stomping the arm of the Green Bay’s Evan Dietrich-Smith. Suh claimed it was an accident, which shows his lack of understanding for the severity of the situation. To compound his problems, he was in a single car accident Friday night in Portland, as he drove his car into a tree.

For the Lions as a team, things have not been going well since their 5-0 start. Since then they are 2-4, and they have not scored 20 points in any of their losses.

The Lions are currently 7-4 and just one spot out of the playoffs in the NFC behind the Falcons and Bears by way of a tiebreaker. Winning the division is out of the question, as the Packers are about to clinch the NFC North, so the Lions need to get back to their early-season winning ways in order to compete for a wild card and avoid wasting this promising season.

The Lions need to try and establish their run game in order to take some of the pressure off of Matt Stafford, who has thrown nine interceptions in his last three games, including three on Thanksgiving.

Kevin Smith seemed to be the spark the Lions needed after losing Jahvid Best, but Smith left last week’s game with a knee injury, but is expected to give it a go tonight.  The other option is Maurice Morris, who has been average at best this year.

Suh’s absence will definitely have an impact, and will only helped the Saints first ranked pass offense, and eighth ranked run offense. It will be interesting to see how the Lions’ defense responds without him in the lineup.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming off a 49-24 win over the Giants, which gave them their third win in a row. They have a record of 8-3 and are the third seed in the NFC, but are only one game behind the second place 49ers.

They currently have a one game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South, but they still have one game left against Atlanta. A win against the Lions would keep them on pace to get a bye in the playoffs, and also win the NFC South.

Drew Brees is having another outstanding year, and is the main reason for the Saints’ success. He leads the league in passing yards (3,689), completions (323), and yards/game (335).

Brees has also been helped out by his new favorite target, Jimmy Graham, who has 8 touchdown catches this season. The Lions have the sixth ranked pass defense, but the Graham should be able to dunk the ball over the goalpost at least once tonight.

Lions-Saints Prediction: Lions 24 – Saints 35

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Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints Game Info

• Lions-Saints Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, December 4th at 8:20 ET on NBC
• Lions-Saints Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Lions-Saints Point Spread: Saints -9
• Lions-Saints Over-Under: 54

Tebow causes hysteria among football traditionalists because of his unorthodox (read: bad) throwing mechanics and the Broncos’ need to create a simplified option offense for him to be successful.  Conversely, his uncanny leadership abilities and penchant for performing at his absolute best in the most important moments has convinced many that he will be a success simply through hard work, will power, and a positive attitude.

By virtue of his devout Christianity, Tebow inspires intense conversations about the role of faith in sports, and that is a dividing factor amongst many fans. Right or wrong, many people’s judgements of Tim Tebow the football player, are forged from their opinions of Tim Tebow the person.

Plus, let’s face it – there are legions of people who want to dislike Tebow simply for the success he had experienced and his seemingly perfect life.  And then there are people (me included, at times) who just like to go against the grain for the sake of staying off the bandwagons of the sports world.

Though we can argue for days about Tebow’s long-term prospects as an NFL quarterback and whether his overt displays of his faith should have a place in our sports experience, there is no doubt that Tebow is a very talented, very charismatic guy.  He seems like a truly nice person who does his best to lead the best personal life he can.  With that in mind, I decided to simultaneously poke a little fun and honor the character and football acumen of one Timothy Richard Tebow.

Here are the Top 10 Tebowest Moments of Tim Tebow:

10. Florida Pulls Tebow From Consideration for Playboy’s All-American Team

Prior to the 2008 season, Tebow had already won a national championship and a Heisman trophy.  Naturally, he was a part of almost every preseason awards list, and when Playboy magazine solicited the University of Florida to include Tebow on their own preseason All-American list, the school informed the infamous nude magazine that Tebow would not accept the honor and the corresponding function in Phoenix that all team nominees are invited to.

Florida didn’t even ask Tebow about whether he wanted on the ballot; they simply knew that his Christian beliefs were in conflict with an affiliation with Playboy.  He later said that he agreed with their choice.

That Florida was so certain that Tebow would not want his name associated with Playboy and that he wouldn’t attend the gathering in Phoenix is a testament to Tebow making his beliefs very clear.  I’m sure many other athletes who consider themselves Christians still attended the event, but Tebow remained steadfast and made the public realize that he was completely genuine about his faith.

I mean, what 21-year old dude is willing to pass up a chance to be invited to a Playboy function?

9. “Tebow Bill” Gains Traction in Multiple States

As a homeschooled high school student, Tebow ignited debate about whether homeschooled children should have the opportunities to participate in sports for their local public school teams.  In 1996, the state of Florida passed a law allowing this, provided players played for the team in the district in which they live.

Since 2007, when Tebow’s story of his own homeschooling (and his moving into an apartment with his mother in order to play for a different school than the one nearest his home) was broadcast to the masses on ESPN’s “Outside the Lines,” the states of Alabama and Kentucky have began similar legislation, in both cases nicknamed the “Tebow Bill.”

Tim Tebow even changes laws.  Not too many quarterbacks can say that (at least for positive law changes).

8. Tebow and the Broncos’ Futility vs. the Detroit Lions

It seems like quite a while ago that Tebow’s future as an NFL starting quarterback was being declared over by all the naysaying experts in the media. Given the magnitude of Tebow’s failures against the Lions this season, it’s understandable why those concerns were voiced.

Back on October 30, Tebow was sacked 7 times, threw and interception that was returned for a touchdown and fumbled for another Detroit defensive score in a 45-10 home loss to Detroit.  Completing just 18 of 39 passes, Tebow’s critics had a field day decrying his inability to lead a pro offense.  The day’s embarrassment was capped off by Detroit’s Stephen Tulloch “Tebowing” – more on that later – in celebration after one of the sacks.

That day encapsulated the conundrum that is Tim Tebow.

Just a week removed from a terrific comeback victory in his first start of the season (more on that later, too), Tebow had exhibited the attitude and leadership necessary to be a winner in the NFL, and had also proven that his unique dual-threat style can work.  Against Detroit though, it looked as if he was entirely incapable of playing in the NFL.

7. “Tebow Rule” – Messages on Players’ Eye Black Outlawed in NCAA Football  

Not that Tebow was the only to do this, but last year players wearing messages painted on their eye paint were told to discontinue the practice.  Tebow was the most notable to do this, often painting “John 3:16″ under his eyes, including during the 2009 national championship game, so the rule was nicknamed the “Tebow Rule,” despite the NCAA’s insistence that it was not enacted solely because of Tebow.

So far we’ve had a law changed and a NCAA uniform rule implemented, plus a stance against a major adult magazine.  I told you this Tebow fella inspires strong discourse on a variety of subjects off the football field.

6. Tebow Acknowledges the “Tebowing” Phenomenon via Twitter

When “planking” and “owling” ran their mercifully short courses as trends, “Tebowing” was next.  T

ebowing became an  internet sensation after Denver’s improbable, Tebow-led victory over Miami October 23.  The practice involves fans taking pictures kneeling in prayer a la Tebow at the end of games.

A few days into the craze, Tebow acknowledged the gestures on Twitter, including a picture of a young child who had undergone chemotherapy Tebowing.  Usually, the subjects of Internet trends don’t get too involved with them, but Tebow, being the sincere person he is, took it in stride and even made his detractors admit that his positive influence on people is something special.

Here is the picture and the tweet:

5. Tebow’s First Comeback Win in the NFL

The day after Christmas last year, the legend of Tim Tebow as a pro quarterback began in earnest.  Against the Houston Texans, the 3-11 Broncos trailed 17-0 at halftime.  Tebow’s first home start in the NFL wasn’t exactly going well.

But in a narrative that has become very familiar to NFL fans today, Tebow rallied his team, and Denver outscored Houston 24-6 in the second half, capped by Tebow’s 6-yard touchdown run with 3 minutes left to put the Broncos ahead.

4. Tebow Wins Despite Completing Only 2 Passes

Tebow’s Broncos (yes, by this point the team was Tebow’s, at least in spirit and attitude, whether John Elway wanted to admit it publicly or not) beat the Kansas City Chiefs November 13, despite Tebow throwing only 8 times and completing only 2.  One of those, though, was a 56-yard touchdown throw to Eric Decker, which would prove the difference in the 17-10 win.

I know the Chiefs are a pretty terrible team, but to allow a team to beat you when you know pretty much exactly what they are going to on every play is inconceivable.

Then again, when you’re dealing with Tim Tebow, a lot of things seem inconceivable, but they happen anyway.

3. Super Bowl Pro-Life Commercial Featuring Tebow

During Super Bowl XLIV, Tebow appeared in two ads for a group called Focus on the Family that featured himself and his mother and touched on the struggles Mrs. Tebow went through in carrying and delivering Tim.  The back story is that her doctor advised her to have an abortion while she was pregnant with Tim, and obviously she refused.

2. The Onslaught of 2011 Comeback Wins

Ok, so this isn’t really one moment, but it was hard to choose just one of these games.  In 2011, Tebow has rallied the 6-5 Broncos to within a game of the AFC West lead, and he has done it largely by executing late game comebacks to win games.  Sometimes slow starters, the Broncos, and Tebow specifically, have shown an uncanny ability to keep their hopes alive and make big plays when needed.

In contrast to the Detroit shellacking, Tebow has engineered 4th quarter comebacks against Miami, Oakland, the New York Jets, and San Diego.  None of the games featured especially spectacular stat lines (although he did run for 117 yards against Oakland), but they all resulted in wins for Denver.

1. Tebow’s Speech After Losing to Ole Miss in 2008

To me, this is the definitive Tim Tebow moment.

This captures his leadership qualities, his attitude, and his sheer desire to win.

A visibly shaken Tebow delivered this speech following the Gators’ loss to Ole Miss, and you can’t mistake his passion and will to make good on the promises he made.

Of course, we know what happened next; the Gators won their final 10 games and beat Oklahoma in the national championship game, giving Tebow his second national title and making him arguably the most decorated college football player ever (1 Heisman, 2 championships).  Even if you dislike Tebow, it’s tough to watch this video and not wish that players on your favorite team shared his passion for winning.

There are the top 10 “Tebowest” moments of Tim Tebow, at least according to me. But Tebow has plenty more than just 10, and I’m sure you all have others that are worthy of inclusion.

Use the comment section to post stories, pics, and videos, and let’s make this the Tebowest blog post ever about Tim Tebow.

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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Image credits: awfulannouncing.com, the majors.net, wnd.com, twitter.com/timtebow, 6magazineonline.com